BIDEN: There’s other people in the race who can beat Trump.
CAPEHART: Who?
BIDEN: Well, I think almost anybody. https://t.co/NeZgFXik0W
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) August 30, 2019
(Murphy the Trickster) God bless the man, he is what he is, and he’s not gonna change. Like some giant herbivore who relies on sheer bulk for protection from most of the aspiring local carnivores — a bull moose or elephant — he ambles blithely through his environment, browsing as he goes. I still don’t think he’ll be our eventual nominee, because that’s his track record. But as long as he picks one of the many available excellent younger candidates as his backup (Abrams, Harris, Buttigieg, Castro, O’Rourke… ), I could pull the lever for him without qualms, come 2020.
I’m not being sarcastic, apologizing is a sucker’s game, Hillary apologized nonstop and no one cared. The only move is to just roll with it and make it your thing, like how Trump did with being a degenerate beyond redemption.
— Bret "Gregor Samsa" Stephens (@agraybee) August 30, 2019
Harris is my first choice, Warren is my second choice but I’d be VERY HAPPY to have Biden as the nominee. That being said, I find it rich that the very same media who normalized & made Trump a contender despite his BLATANT LIES, is now concern trolling Biden over his gaffes.
— Hercules Mulligan (@johnvmoore) August 30, 2019
And it’s not just that they’re not bothered — every voter asked about gaffes in this story talks about how @JoeBiden is real, has heart and understands them. https://t.co/Hh5RulS68Z
— Kate Bedingfield (@KBeds) August 30, 2019
Biden concedes he sees SC as his February firewall. “In New Hampshire, in Iowa, in Nevada, the dynamic can change…. So I hope that whatever Iowa would bring, what we’ve done here would strengthen the prospect that we can continue to win here.” https://t.co/oBZBNlAzno
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) August 30, 2019
GAFFNEY — Even with so many other candidates to choose from, Sheran Littlejohn knew who she was going to vote for in the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary before the race even really began.
“I was always hoping Joe Biden would run,” said Littlejohn, 71, after a Biden town hall at Limestone College in Gaffney this week. “We need someone who cares about people and who knows how to run the government. He’s been there for 40 years. He won’t even have to open a book.”
As Biden’s Democratic primary opponents work around the clock to try to win over his supporters, the former vice president’s frontrunner status in South Carolina has remained solid in the early months of his campaign, buoyed by decades of relationships and a particularly strong appeal with black voters, who comprise a majority of the state’s Democratic voters…
“We’re in a situation where we have invested a lot of time and effort and structure here,” Biden said. “So I hope that whatever Iowa would bring, what we’ve done here would strengthen the prospect that we can continue to win here.”
Biden’s critics have rested their hopes in South Carolina partly on an argument that Biden’s support here is “wide, but it’s not deep” — a suggestion that his many supporters here are not necessarily wedded to him and could ultimately be persuaded to vote for someone else.
Yet in interviews with more than two dozen voters at Biden’s events over the course of his two-day swing through South Carolina this week, more than half of them said they were dead-set on their choice of the former vice president and could not foresee anything that would change their minds…
But if Biden doesn’t win/come extremely close in first three states, wouldn’t his electability argument have already eroded and even a victory in SC might turn out to be a life vest and not a rescue boat? https://t.co/5oNiK1PRPE
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) August 30, 2019
The election will be seven stories about Biden confusing some facts held up against one story about how Trump cleared the bar by not ritually executing his enemies, every day for months. https://t.co/OjheoXBZjA
— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) August 29, 2019
Jeffro
National media: gimme a call when you have evidence that Biden paid off a mistress using campaign funds run through a shell corporation, THEN lied about it/pretended not to know anything about it.
Or when he tweets out a classified US intelligence photo just to troll Iran
Or when he muses aloud about ‘you second amendment people’ as a means to save his floundering (2016) campaign.
Or, or, or. You get the picture, right national media?
Ladyraxterinok
@Jeffro: Amen and amen. And so said they all,,,,amen.
From the tops of their heads to the soles of their feet,,,,all said amen.
zhena gogolia
I’m with Hercules all the way.
Fair Economist
I don’t see how any sane person could have qualms about pulling the lever for Biden if the alternative is any Republican, never mind Trump. Qualms for Biden being the alternative, sure, but the actual choice? No problem at all.
Duane
@Jeffro: National media get the picture? You funny Jeffro.
Droppy
It’s all perfectly fair. Republicans who have nominated Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump. are not required to put forward intelligent and honorable people because they have already passed the barrier by nominating stupid and dishonorable people. Democrats have nominated Mike Dukakis, Al Gore, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton, therefore they must adhere to perfect email protocols or be subject to severe punishment. Why isn’t this obvious?
Baud
People used her apologies against her, and they used her non-apologies against her.
I agree. Don’t apologize for gaffes. Biden only looks bad when you compare him to some of the other candidates. Not when you compare him to anyone outside the party.
And good for him for not pretending he is the only one who can beat Trump.
Brachiator
You can’t do much to counteract this if a candidate is loved and respected by his supporters.
The other candidates have to show that they are better, build their own support, and then gain Biden’s endorsement.
Another Scott
I’m Team Run Up The Score, Team Keep The House, Team Take The Senate, Team Take Every Seat Everywhere We Can.
After that, I don’t have a strong opinion on the presidential candidates yet. Yeah, I think Biden should go home (as I’ve said many times). But if Democratic primary voters want him enough to give him the majority at the convention, that’s fine with me too.
The main thing for me is having a united team that fights for every possible seat everywhere. Without having the majority in as many places as we can, it doesn’t matter much who sits behind the Resolute Desk when it comes to getting sensible legislation enacted, sensible people put on the courts, having a sensible trade policy, having sensible state laws about reproductive rights, etc.
Beto is campaigning for Democrats in Virginia for the upcoming November election. Gillibrand has sent out fundraising e-mails for Democratic Senate candidates. What has Joe (and everyone else) done to build the team? (Genuine question) It’s a thankless task (MOM has done a lot of it under-the-radar since he imploded as a candidate in 2016), but I think it’s important even if the national press doesn’t care.
Cheers,
Scott.
patrick II
When they finish parsing every lie Trump has told for the last month they can start on the Democratic candidates. If they do the job right, that won’t be until at least January 2021.
Aleta
OT
No subscription is needed to read the Wash Post coverage of the situation in the Bahamas area, or any of its coverage of Hurricane Dorian. Some articles on the Bahamas are at the top of its home page right now.
Skepticat, I think you’re in the US right now, but hope all your neighbors and the people you know will be OK. I remember when you helped there when refugees’ boat had capsized. If you want, please let us know what you and others need now.
Brachiator
@Baud:
Yeah, I guess this is his best defense. However, it is one of the things that held him back in the past. Ultimately, people wanted a better candidate. That dynamic has not changed.
I’d vote for Biden over Trump in a nanosecond. But Biden is that stereotype of the boxer who keeps getting back into the ring after his time has passed, his reflexes and punches no longer as effective as they once were.
Every politician makes an occasional gaffe. But Biden is a gaffe machine. It undermines his effectiveness. We can do better.
Matt
FFS the bootlicking from the Bidenistas is pathetic – “sure our candidate is a handsy serial confabulator who pals around with segregationists, but he’s slightly less so than the other guy!”
He shouldn’t apologize for the gaffes, he should apologize for his whole career and sit the hell down. “He’s been in politics for 40 years” isn’t an endorsement, it’s a track record of bad policy and failure.
Ruckus
@Duane:
The national media is on the wrong side of the camera for that.
Baud
@Brachiator:
I don’t support him against most of the other primary candidates for a lot of reasons. But I’m not going to tear him down to beat him.
Amir Khalid
Biden could beat Trump if Trump becomes irredeemably toxic, which is certainly possible aand maybe even likely. But then Biden has not shown himself to be the strongest Democratic candidate for the job of POTUS. I fear he could win, and then find himself overwhelmed when he takes office.
zhena gogolia
@Matt:
Yeah, right.
zhena gogolia
@Amir Khalid:
He wouldn’t be overwhelmed.
debbie
@Baud:
I think Obama had it right. He apologized but then pushed back against the pushback.
Ruckus
@Droppy:
Because the problem isn’t what they’ve done, that’s contemptible on it’s own. The problem is that their platform, what they believe, is shit. Shitty people are the only ones who can fulfill their shitty ideals. And one of the problems that we have is that liberals are far, far more inclusive, in ideals, and in people. Which means getting a consensus can actually be difficult. On the big problems no, but on the peripheral issues, on the candidates, we will always have some differences, because of that inclusiveness.
NotMax
Yeah, relying on a state which is never gonna end up in your column in the general election is so reassuring.
//
Baud
@debbie:
What do you remember him apologizing for? I’m not saying he didn’t, but I can’t recall any of it.
Amir Khalid
@zhena gogolia:
I don’t entirely share your confidence on that.
Betty Cracker
I’ll have a million fucking qualms if Biden is our nominee, but no choice in the matter — I’ll vote for him if it comes to that. Better to devolve to oligarchy via managed decline rather than free fall to the bottom as we’re doing now.
Ruckus
@Amir Khalid:
This is basically my view as well.
Joe is the quintessential HS senior class president. Charming, nice, great personality, even great at his job, as long as the job isn’t extremely stressful or tough. And he could surprise you and me, because we’ve never seen him do this job. But we have seen him in congress. We have seen his record. We know that a great personality, likability, isn’t the most important part of this job, it’s a bonus.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Control of Congress is actually more important in that regard than the Dem that occupies the White House.
Kay
This is a lie and it’s a lie that helps President Trump’s re-election efforts. They all know he’s lying to them but broadcasting these lies he tells at the informal “avails” he now holds daily is a benefit to their business.
1st winner- Donald Trump 2nd winner – media
100% losers in this transaction? The public. The public would know MORE if these people stopped showing up for work.
Brachiator
@Baud:
I totally agree with that sentiment. I don’t have a strong preference yet for any candidate, though I like some better than others. And, Wilmer aside, I have not bashed any candidate.
However, Biden’s weaknesses are apparent. They have kept him from winning the nomination in the past. He has not become a better candidate in the passing years.
Past news stories suggested that Biden thought that being named Obama’s VP pick would be the last achievement of a long, and honorable career. I can understand his change of heart. I can even respect that he might think that his candidacy is necessary to ensure Trump’s defeat.
I respect that and still wish that he would withdraw.
Ruckus
@Baud:
It wasn’t even this. It was the onslaught of the concept that she had things to apologize for, it was the accepting of that, it became that she had so much to apologize for. The bullshit and the apologizing for the bullshit became the entire, never ending story.
Baud
@Brachiator:
In general, my bashing is reserved for people like Bernie that run on hatred of Democrats. But even with him, I’m much more muted than I would otherwise be because of the slight chance he might win.
Kay
Biden is smart not to apologize or explain. Donald Trump lowering standards is not Biden’s fault but it is his problem. Biden has to operate in an environment where lying and stonewalling are the coin of the realm.
How fucking childish are we in this country that we imagined we wouldn’t pay for this? We will ALL pay for Donald Trump’s Presidency. The standards are lower- that’s done. They imagined there would be one set of low standards for Trump and the sleazy, low quality hires and another for Trump’s opponent? Why would his opponent agree to that?
There is a COST to lying. Trump is a deadbeat and won’t ever pay it. We all will.
zhena gogolia
@Kay:
You sound like my husband. Every time I share some little Trump tidbit with him, he says, “We’re going to pay for this.”
Baud
@Ruckus:
Onslaught is right. I’m ashamed that I thought at the time we were strong enough to deal with it. I’ll never overestimate us again.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
Stacy Abrams now has an organization to get dems elected nationwide.
It is one of the strengths of our side, and one of the weaknesses, that we often have not pulled together because we have some differences between candidates. Even here we hear things about how this candidate isn’t liberal enough, so a candidate who isn’t liberal enough to say, get elected in San Francisco, can’t win in Kansas because they get no support from the national party. It’s a self inflicted wound. I see it coming around because of the shitgibbon. I know he’s not trying to get democrats elected, but he is the best sales pitch.
Kay
As every parent knows, when you reward bad behavior you get more of it. The Trump Family and hires have benefited from lying. We will get more of it, and it won’t be limited to them.
You don’t have standards just for abstract reasons. You have standards to encourage and then reward certain behavior.
We’ll get bottom 10% behavior because that’s what we rewarded.
JaySinWA
@Kay: I think Trump said one true thing. Odessa does not change anything he was going to do. The package was always going to be empty.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Keep on telling the truth ?? ?
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
It’s true. We have to pay for mistakes. We hired bad people. A huge error. It doesn’t matter a bit if “we’re better than this”. That isn’t how it works. That is the plea of a six year old. We can certainly come back from this, but first we’ll have to pay.
Fair Economist
@Matt:
To be fair, for all Biden’s flaws, there’s still a yawning chasm between him and Trump. The difference is anything but slight.
Suzanne
@Fair Economist:
Cosigned.
Hell, I’d vote for Tulsi without qualms rather than another round of this.
Butter emails!!!
@Matt:
You realize it’s not pasty white dudebros who form the core of Biden’s support right?
germy
@Suzanne: I’d stand in line to vote for Bernie if he wins the nomination.
Bobby Thomson
@Baud:
That’s the first thing he’s said in this campaign that I’ve really, really liked. It’s not just accurate. It’s not just being a good team player. It’s brilliant. It neatly undermines the “his campaign is only about electability” narrative.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: They’re both really important. If you’re going to turn a boat around, you need an engine AND a captain who agrees you need to change direction.
Brachiator
@Matt:
I have problems with Biden’s gaffes, but past political history is complicated. In fact, here, I think that Biden committed another gaffe in not explaining past realities more elegantly.
Fact is that in the past, segregationists held positions of honor and power in the Democratic Party. Hell, in 1952, Adlai Stevenson’s VP pick was Alabama Senator John Sparkman, an unrepentant racist. Most white Democrats had no problem with this.
But what has not changed is also the fact that sometimes you have to deal with unsavory politicians to get stuff done. We are not yet at the point where we elect angels to public office.
Another Scott
@Kay: Biden apologized for the handsy stuff and getting in people’s personal space (“… I get it, I really do…”), and it was appropriate to do so. And it got it out of the news, overwhelmingly. (It seems like it was about 20 years ago, but it was less than 5 months ago.)
I don’t accept that (as some political people say) that one can’t ever apologize. But he can’t and shouldn’t apologize for everything in his past. IMHO, more than anything, he needs to show that he recognizes that things have changed in the last 40 years if he wants to win the nomination in 2020. Of course, that opinion of mine and $5 will get one a chicken sandwich at Wendy’s…
Cheers,
Scott.
Barb 2
Biden is too old. I’m old and he is older than me! No future in his messages. Then because I’m old I can remember his treatment of Anita Hill and his support of Thomas. Who is still a sexual predator on the Supreme Court.
We have candidates who have plans and vision for the future.
I won’t vote for Biden . I just can not do it. But then I live in a super duper blue state. If I lived in a purple or red state then maybe I would mark next to Biden.
We need someone who really comprehend Global warming. Biden does not – he thinks some middle of the road was kissing the climate deniers is the way to go.
But we have a very long way to go before that final life and death vote. We need to get through some sort of impeachment against Trump etc. That is going to be a bloody fight. There is a long long march before the 2020 primary elections. We need to find and work for Democratic Senate candidates to get Moscow Mitch out in the Senate.
Biden – I will just ignore him and keep sending money to Warren and Harris. Plus help fund Four Directions work. They are working to get the reservation Indians right to vote.
germy
I hope the 2018 midterms were a sign of things to come.
artem1s
BIden gaffs worry me less than the people who have him as their first choice. I just don’t believe they are actual Democrats. Just more
IndependentsRepublicans casting about for someone to vote for who isn’t vaginally impaired and is less offensive than Dolt (low bar indeed)anarchoRex
If Biden is the nominee and wins, we can all look forward to a continuation of the gutting of the Democratic party that happened under him as VP for Obama.
Ruckus
@Baud:
Yes, but. Part of what I’m saying is that the constant apologizing kept the questions coming. Hillary turned nothing, into the story. OK that’s not actually true, the media did that. But she gave them the ammunition, the constant answering of every question, which the media turned into THE story, into a negative. I hear people that are liberal who dislike her but really can’t pin a reason on it. We can make all kinds of assumptions but to me the result of the media focus on her constantly having to apologize really focused a lot of voters ideas about Hillary as having things to apologize for. The opposite of that is Joe Biden. He doesn’t apologize for, really anything, he “attacks” right back at the media. This stops them until the next time, and he does it again. A lot of people take that as a strength, because a lot of people often have to apologize in some way for things they are not responsible for, especially at work. Some get so used to this they do it all the time, often for things they have absolutely nothing to apologize for. I get this in the healthcare industry all the time, sorry about pulling the EKG tabs off and ripping out the hair on your chest. (Obvious recent example!) And of course there is the opposite, the sadist who will just start ripping them off. Examples of humanity, those who apologize for everything and those who apologize for nothing. Somewhere in the middle is appropriate, either end isn’t.
Ruckus
@rikyrah:
Seconds, thirds or whatever, Kay is right.
germy
@Ruckus: But won’t they do that to any Democratic nominee?
Brachiator
@Bobby Thomson:
Great point.
Biden’s statement was brief and to the point, but also has deeper undertones. This is something that he does well.
germy
Like Chauncey the Gardener!
Chyron HR
@anarchoRex:
I see Bernie’s doubling down on his “I hate Obama and all Democrats” campaign from 2016. It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for him.
@artem1s:
Oh, I almost forgot his companion strategy, “black votes shouldn’t count, they’re not even real Democrats”. We’re bringing back ALL the hits!
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Truth be told, we never will be. At least not in this life. None of us are angels. Some of us are a lot farther away than others, but no one qualifies.
Betty Cracker
@Another Scott: Agreed. Warren apologized for the Native American heritage thing. I think she had to — it was the right thing to do morally and politically. The media seems determined to never let the issue go, but would they have if she’d refused to apologize? I don’t think so.
mrmoshpotato
@Ruckus: OT – How’d things go at the VA?
anarchoRex
@Chyron HR: Who mentioned Bernie? Is it not accurate that Dems got wiped out at the state and national level under Obama?
germy
@Chyron HR:
link?
Chyron HR
@Barb 2:
Stay tuned for August 2020, when we’ll hear Barb 2 say, “I can’t vote for the radical Warren/Harris ticket, we needed someone sensible like Joe Biden.”
Brachiator
@anarchoRex:
I have no idea what this is supposed to mean, so I won’t worry about it.
The point is to defeat Trump and the GOP. Stay focused.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
You mean the state legislatures of the old confederacy are going to flip from… Republican to Republican?
ETA: Ahoy, maties! Sea lion to the port side! (I think I’m using that term right)
Chyron HR
@germy:
You mean other than when I directly linked to the comment of one of his idiot worshipers doing so?
Ruckus
@Barb 2:
It’s like we had a mind meld.
Except as much as I don’t want Biden, if he’s the candidate, I’ll throw the emergency vote button and give him mine. We are, as I said on the post about Odessa, at war with people who are literally killing us for their politics. It is a time in history that we have to do the very best we can, even if it isn’t the absolute best we should. We aren’t at bottom but we are heading in that direction. At the very least we have to do whatever it takes to stop the free fall.
anarchoRex
Did everyone forget we had a republican controlled House for 8 years and lost something like 1000+ seats at the state level?
debbie
@Baud:
For one, BeerGate. Obama at first called the cop’s behavior stupid, then later apologized.
(I myself see no problem with making apologies.)
anarchoRex
@Brachiator: That’s in the general, this is the primary. I’ll vote for Biden if necessary, but I do not expect a successful administration under him.
JDM
@zhena gogolia:
“Slightly” like Las Vegas in the summer is “slightly” warmer than Antarctica. And both places are “slightly” more inhabitable than Mercury or Venus.
Brachiator
@germy:
Well, hopefully a Chauncey with brains.
germy
@Chyron HR: oh, so a Bernie fan says something on the internet = Bernie is doubling down on hating Obama. Got it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@debbie: dollars to donuts (as long as I’m using expressions I’m not entirely sure of the meaning of) that Sgt Crowley voted for McCain, Romney and trump.
Boy, I could go for a donut right now.
debbie
@Betty Cracker:
I will be a hundred shades of disappointed when I vote. So much promise turned to dust.
zhena gogolia
@Barb 2:
Enjoy your purity.
Martin
So, there’s an interesting strategic inflection point for the electorate here. If evidence suggests that only Biden can beat Trump then Biden will be the nominee. If evidence suggests that any reasonable Dem can beat Trump, then Dems can vote their hearts, and you start to think about downballot results. Does Joe bering out the electorate more than the other leaders? I don’t see that. I think if you want to drive turnout so you can win those House and Senate races, and state races, the two white men have to cycle to the bottom of the pack. You put Harris or Warren at the top. That’ll get you 2008/2018 results.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I think the strength of Biden, and for that matter Bernie and trump, just shows that most people– I’d say especially among the squishy crew called swing voters– vote for affect, not policy, not intellect.
trollhattan
@Barb 2:
Biden’s issues are in part age-related but the obvious comparison with Warren demonstrates that isn’t as determinative as how one ages.
He’s just not doing anything to attract my interest.
anarchoRex
@zhena gogolia: This seems off base. Barb is just stating that, because they live in a state where Biden is assured victory, they will instead choose to vote for a candidate that they are not as dissapointed in. They follow this up by saying that if they lived in a state that was competitive, then they would vote for him. I’m not seeing the purity stance?
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
No doubt at all. As I recall, he wasn’t very gracious. (Or is that just a girl thing?)
Ruckus
@germy:
Probably yes. Most likely yes. OK absolutely yes.
And it isn’t that the media is biased, which they seem to be, it’s that because their jobs depend on having a story, something different to write about, something, anything besides just blather, they will do their damnest to create one if there isn’t one there. Rethugs just repeat the mantra, unless they have just been arrested, at which time they attack their accusers. Democrats apologize. Which would be easier to turn into a major story, some sleazy ass gets caught – snooze story, or someone is apologizing for something? Yeah they will do this to dems. So rather than give them something, give them an ending, change the story. Biden does that naturally. I think it might be his gift.
Baud
@anarchoRex:
We didn’t forget. We just don’t believe Obama was the cause, except the extent that the deplorables were motivated by their hate.
Do you know someone who has proven they can do better?
zhena gogolia
@anarchoRex:
Anything negative said about the eventual Democratic (note I said Democratic) nominee has an effect. Not voting for the Democratic nominee has an effect. We’re in a fight against fascism. We have to vote for the Democratic nominee no matter what state we live in. We need to contribute to the positive atmosphere surrounding that nominee from the moment they are nominated. People’s lives are at stake, and the country we want to live in is at stake.
zhena gogolia
Noting a lot of new nyms today. Strange.
Baud
@Ruckus:
I disagree then. There’s nothing she could done that would not have given them ammunition.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’d like to predict aNarchoRex’s next post:
“Is it not true that… blah blah blah?”
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
I agree. Living in a blue state does not give you a privilege over other people.
anarchoRex
@Baud: So in your analysis, what was the cause?
anarchoRex
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Cool, spoken like someone with the mindset of a true Trump supporter.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I can’t tell if he’s trying to make preventive excuses for a poor response (“Well, no one’s ever seen a hurricane like this…”) or trying to take credit for it (“No one’s ever seen a hurricane like this! Like nothing you’ve ever seen!”)
anarchoRex
@zhena gogolia: Biden is not the nominee. If he is, I’ll vote for him here in Texas, just like I voted for Clinton, even though my vote means dick-all. I think it’s fair to express concerns about candidates you have reservations about. Most of us don’t seem to have any qualms about doing that for other candidates.
Ruckus
@mrmoshpotato:
Progress. Real progress. Had 2 MRI scans, an hour in the tube, new info learned, actually found out a possible cause of some (the most currently critical) issues. What happened is unusual, enough so that the ER docs seemed unaware of it but not so much as to be massively scary. Have been assigned to a neuro doc, which in VA speak means that there is a problem and that constant complaining is no longer required, they know there is an issue to work on. IOW life goes on, I can continue to get older.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@anarchoRex: You saw right through me, (possible) new commenter!
You get it. Man. Keep on keepin’ it real.
Baud
@anarchoRex:
Hate on the other side. Media influence. Too many people expecting “magic negro” results, and becoming apathetic.
Not too different from 2016, except people didn’t have an economic crisis to blame for their behavior, so they made up “economic anxiety” as an excuse.
Any Dem elected next year will face similar problems. The only unknown is whether our voters are more mature now as a result of the Trump experience.
Ruckus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Actually the sea lions and such swim behind the boat. Amazing to watch them for an hour, keeping up with a big boat, showing off for the humans standing there watching them. And then have them swim away like sharing the ocean with you is an every day event. Which of course it is.
zhena gogolia
@anarchoRex:
Expressing concerns about primary candidates and vowing not to vote for the eventual nominee are two different things.
anarchoRex
-“Hate on the other side.” I don’t see how republicans hating Obama translates to Dem losses, outside of maybe boosting their turnout.
-“Media influence. Too many people expecting “magic negro” results, and becoming apathetic.” These are both accurate, and is exactly why I think we’ll get a retread of this with Biden. Just replace “‘magic negro” results” “a return to normalcy”
I’ll also to note that the Dem party experienced the same thing under Clinton, at least at the national level, a couple of passive google searches doesn’t bring anything up for the state level.
So the question is, if the phenomena happened in different generations, under different economic conditions, and under two presidents who are individually very different from eachother, then what did they have in common that drove this?
anarchoRex
@Baud: -“Hate on the other side.” I don’t see how republicans hating Obama translates to Dem losses, outside of maybe boosting their turnout.
-“Media influence. Too many people expecting “magic negro” results, and becoming apathetic.” These are both accurate, and is exactly why I think we’ll get a retread of this with Biden. Just replace “‘magic negro” results” “a return to normalcy”
I’ll also note that the Dem party experienced the same thing under Clinton, at least at the national level, a couple of passive google searches doesn’t bring anything up for the state level.
So the question is, if the phenomena happened in different generations, under different economic conditions, and under two presidents who are individually very different from eachother, then what did they have in common that drove this?
anarchoRex
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You’re clearly just interested in lashing out so I won’t be continuing our discourse.
Baud
@anarchoRex:
Yes. That hurts our chances.
@anarchoRex:
There’s no obvious solution. We could go more left, but it’s not as of the recent history of left wing politicians reveals tons of success. You can certainly have a religious beliefs that alternative will be better, but that’s all it is.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@anarchoRex: If I toss you some kippers
will you clap your flippers ?
clay
@Barb 2:
Biden didn’t support Thomas; he voted against him.
Did he fuck up the Hill hearing? Yes, but honestly, it was really the first national conversation about sexual harassment. There were going to be fuck-ups, especially in an old boys club like the Senate. Biden just happened to be the one sitting in the chair. Let’s not forget he blocked Robert Bork, at least.
Hill has said she’d vote for him so, you know.
anarchoRex
@zhena gogolia: I didn’t take her statement as strongly as that, but fair enough.
HRA
Up above there are some people saying what did Biden ever do or words similar. He worked to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964. That was what he campaigned on in his first candidacy for national office. That was why he reached across the aisle to those “good ole southern boys”.
As far ad the Democratic Party being changed by Obama and Biden, you need you realize just because they were Democrats it did not mean they were not racists.
clay
@anarchoRex: Any analysis of election results from 2010 forward that don’t mention Citizens United are incomplete at best and disingenuous at worst.
Ruckus
@trollhattan:
As far as choices go, I’ll list mine, this far ahead of November 2020.
1. Harris. To me she is a better professional politician than the others. She has experience running a fairly large bureaucracy and we agree upon most of the issues.
2. Warren. Great ideas, immense drive, same age as me – less than a month dif and that I don’t like, I like her for the senate, turn her ideas into actual legislation.
3. Beto. You may have noticed that he and I speak our minds in similar fashion. I like that, it’s necessary, more now than ever. I also see that I’m not alone in this.
4. Mayor Pete. He’s articulate, I like what and how he says it, on the age thing he’s the opposite of Warren, only 2 yrs older than the minimum age requirement. So he’s old enough but….
5. Crap shoot. Notice Biden isn’t in my choices, but we don’t always get what we want. I’d vote for him above the rest, but he’s not my favorite. He’d be 78 yrs old upon swearing in, and that is just too old.
anarchoRex
@Baud: Agreed, I’m not proposing there’s an obvious solution. I do believe that going more left is a winning proposition, but I also know that I could be completely wrong about that. That being said, to me, Biden seems like the closest you can get to trying the same thing and hoping for different results. Which is all the more confounding considering almost every other candidate would be at least as good at running the executive, in my estimation. Although maybe not all of them could beat Trump (it’s interesting to note that the two farthest left candidates do better than the rest of the field vs Trump, only behind Biden, in a good # of polls( yes polls are iffy and it’s a weird phenomena))
anarchoRex
@clay: I mean sure, but I’d then include the nuance that the Dem party has benefited from the river of corporate money at least as much as the Republicans
Baud
@anarchoRex:
Well, I don’t support Biden, so I’m not going to defend his candidacy against other candidates. But after 2016, I’m also not going remain silent if I think a particular attack is wrongful and harms us as a party. Hell, I’ve even defended Bernie on occasion when I thought a particular criticism was off base.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Keepin’ it. So. Fucking. Real
debbie
@clay:
Anita Hill is something Biden should have apologized for years ago.
anarchoRex
@Baud: Is my criticism off base? Most of the factors you mentioned are systemic, they’re not particular to any one presidency, including Citizens United, as Clay mentions. Any Dem president would go through them as you said, but I think Biden is particularly unsuited for dealing with these systemic obstacles.
Ruckus
@Baud:
I don’t think we actually do disagree. In the back of my mind I think we are saying the same thing, as I’m not sure what Hillary could have done other than what Biden does, which is change the story. Hillary apologized and continued to. Biden never does that. He changes the story. What I’m saying and I think you are too, is that it’s quite possible that Hillary could never have changed the story. She needed to, but never could quite pull it off. It could very well be the media, it could be somewhat her fault, but the fact is that she never changed the story, so the media made it the story. I’m agreeing that this is wrong, I think the media needs to do better, but we live with the media as it exists, not as we think it should. Hell I took an oath to defend their right to exist as they do, however they do, not only when I agreed with them. I think you may have taken one similar as well, if I’m correct in your profession.
Marc
@Fair Economist: That problem isn’t choosing Trump over Biden, it’s whether those who would vote for Biden or any other Democrat are enthusiastic enough to actually run the gauntlet to vote. A good number of those voters will be faced with waiting in (possibly intentional) 1+ hour lines, in cold or snow, at a polling place that may (intentionally) not be convenient for those without a car, then faced with possibility of a provisional ballot or not being able to vote at all, due to some (likely intentional) registration irregularity. If a candidate doesn’t really inspire all that much enthusiasm in segments of likely Democratic voters, and the media is saying they’re a sure winner anyway, lots of people will just stay home. You know, like last time…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@debbie: he seems incapable of admitting he’s wrong. A lot of pundits are saying he learned it from trump, I suspect it’s a long term condition, born of believing too much for too long both in the glory of the U.S. Senate– he has clearly bought into the whole myth of “the world’s greatest deliberative body”– and of his own importance in that institution he has a sentimental (and self-aggrandizing) investment in.
I think the most head-spinning moment of his campaign was saying that Cory Booker owed him an apology, and I don’t even like Booker.
That said, broken glass, et cetera.
Betty Cracker
@anarchoRex: Here’s a fairly plausible and fair (IMO) explanation of what happened to the party during the Obama years. To sum up, it was mostly bad timing.
Another Scott
@HRA: Poe’s Law?
Biden first ran for office in 1969.
Cheers,
Scott.
anarchoRex
@Betty Cracker: This is excellent, thank you. I should clarify, I don’t think the dem losses were all Obama’s fault, every president sees losses in the midterms. But the article also spends the last 6 paragraphs on Obama’s mostly failure to react strongly enough, or at all, to the situation, and my exact worry is that Biden will repeat his mistakes. He’s not a particularly forward-thinking candidate, so I wouldn’t assume he’d somehow be more advanced in this particular area.
Maybe we’ll get lucky and the people he surrounds himself with will be better about this than Obama’s staff and the the party leadership at the time were. There does seem to be a greater emphasis on actual party building that surged last cycle and is continuing, so thats a hopeful sign.
HRA
@Another Scott:
Well I was told this by someone who I deemed to be trustworthy with their recollections of the past. I sincerely apologize for sending it without checking it on google first. It is a lesson learned now.
Regards
HRA
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker: Hmm…
Ctrl-F
“economy”
0 hits
Hmm….
The GOP blew up the economy in 2006-2008, that’s why Obama and the Democrats did so well in 2008. The GOP then turned up the austerity knob to 11 at every remaining choke-point they had and kept it turned up far too long, so the economic recovery was too weak and slow. So in 2010 Democrats were punished by the voters.
The GOP, and right-wing parties everywhere, knew that people get scared and angry and are susceptible to blaming “The Other” when the economy is bad. They had a deliberate policy to make things under the Democrats as bad as possible (and talked about with apocalyptic language blaming Democrats) to increase their chance of regaining power as soon as possible. It happened in Europe, it happened in East Asia, and South America, and here.
That’s why the ARRA was kept much smaller by the GOP than the textbook economics said it should have been.
Any explanation that doesn’t recognize that and make it at least part of the story is missing a lot, IMHO.
Cheers,
Scott.
clay
@anarchoRex:
Well, that’d be an absolutely stupid thing to say, even if it were true. The whole point about Citizens United is that it allows wealthy corporations and individuals to circumvent political parties and funnel unlimited, and even anonymous, donations to superPACs to spend as they see fit. The Kochs, the Mercers, Sheldon Adelson, et al have spent billions to elect Republicans at the local, state, and national level, as well as to defeat initiatives and bills that they’re against.
So next time you start to blame Obama for (somehow) being responsible for Democrats losing statehouse seats in wherever, you may want to keep in mind that election rules have massively disadvantaged Democrats for years, but even more so since 2010.
You may also wish to remember that who sits on the Supreme Court makes a huge difference to whatever political agenda you may profess, and that ANY Democrat will nominate justices who are better than those nominated by ANY Republican. Indeed, given the tenure length of most justices, it could even be argued this is the ONLY consideration one needs when voting for President (as well as Senators).
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
All in all, good news, I think. Hope things continue to go well.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Thanks. It may not be the best news but I’ll take what I can get. It’s good news.
Betty Cracker
@Another Scott: The flaw with the “Ctrl-F” research method is that you have to search for every possible wording choice that conveys the same concept. The article notes that because of the timing of the “financial crisis,” Obama started out with more marginal seats than a normal election cycle, and thus he had more at-risk seats to lose.
anarchoRex
@clay: Outside of 2012, Dem candidates have benefited from more, or roughly equal, outside spending than the repubs in every election since 2010, except for 2012 where the repubs had a 2:1 advantage. Maybe do some research before calling someone else’s statement “stupid.”
What’s up with the tangent about the Supreme Court?
https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/summ.php?cycle=2010&chrt=P&disp=O&type=A
@Another Scott: The article specifically mentions both the financial crisis, and the resulting stimulus, but does have a different ( not necessarily opposing) analysis about them than you do. Maybe read the article next time instead of “Crtl-F ‘economy'”?
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker: Touche’.
:-)
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
I never have been convinced that the economy could have heated up much quicker. I agree with some of the analysis that more could have been done, but I don’t believe the ideal solution would have produced an economy that had turned itself around by the time the 2010 elections rolled around. It takes time to steer a big ship.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It’s an R+ district. Not exactly a hotbed of liberalism, I assume.
Another Scott
@Baud: The counterpoint is the GDP growth under Reagan once the Federal Reserve had decided that the economy had suffered enough… Real GDP up 9.4% in 2Q83. Etc.
Yes, turning off the interest rate tourniquet is different from recovering from a burst housing bubble. But the Post-2008 recovery was historically weak. Usually the bounce-back after a deep recession is much stronger.
Much, much more could have been done in the ARRA – it should have been bigger and lasted longer. Would it have been enough to prevent huge losses in 2010? Hard to know, but the economy was a big issue in the election (as I recall).
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
HalfAssedHomesteader
The problem with having Biden for the nominee is not that he couldn’t beat Trump; it’s that he’ll kill the down ticket coattails.
Baud
@Another Scott:
The only real comparison is the Great Depression, and the U.S. had to suffer for three years of that before FDR took over.
The big issue in 2010 was jobs, jobs, jobs, and Obamacare. The stimulus almost immediately stemmed the job losses, but you can only rehire more quickly. Maybe if more could have been done, the recovery would have been stronger or taken less time to complete, but I just find it hard to believe that it would have been quick enough to save the House.
Bill Arnold
@anarchoRex:
Remember the Tea Party? Well-organized and well-funded “grass-roots” politics with a competent media presence? Remember Mitch McConnell’s total obstructionism starting on Jan 21 2009? Remember how the Democrats were outplayed in the media news cycles (even in 2015/2016), and on social media by organized influence operations, some paid because Republicans have too much money?
Butter emails!!!
@HalfAssedHomesteader:
How so?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@HalfAssedHomesteader: You think? a lot of time between now and then, but I think Mark Kelly and a few others would rather have Biden at the top of the ticket than… other candidates. And if the speculation about Stacey Abrams being open to being his running mate are true, I think that’s a pretty potent ticket in terms of coat tails.
I’m no longer as sure as I was a month ago that Sanders would lose to trump, but he’d be a gift to the RSCC, Collins, Gardner and McSally.
@Baud: sure, just interesting to see the decisions being made on the ground compared to internet/politcal junkie chatter. I was listening to an MNSBC panel show in the car the other day, and all the ‘bots were amazed that nobody gave a shit about Biden’s war medal story. I gather tweety was apoplectic
Bill Arnold
@Baud:
The stimulus was half the size of the Reagan stimulus in constant dollars, and Reagan’s economy had the advantage of a 8.x percent drop in the federal funds rate.
Ruckus
@Baud:
Exactly.
Each recession is not exactly like the last or any before it. Exactly how it might be turned around is different. And with the rethugs thinking that no stimulus is the answer because the rich can survive and they don’t give a shit about anyone else, that gets difficult.
Bill Arnold
@anarchoRex:
If this is your main point then I agree. (Though climate change is the planet-sized (only party Republican) elephant in the room.)
anarchoRex
@Bill Arnold: I do remember all those. I also remember the inadequate responses to all these by the party leadership that came up with Obama. I remember him very much trying to be the bi-partisan bringer-togetherer even after it was clear the republicans weren’t interested, though he wised up his second term. I remember that he took the largest and most motivated volunteer based organization in the history of American politics, Organizing for America, and through disinterest let it whither away. I remember that the democrats have been getting pantsed by the media for decades and have largely yet to learn their lesson.
Why is introspection into a candidates or politicians mistakes so inflammatory? Isn’t our job to learn from these mistakes and try to improve as a party? Finger pointing at every outside factor possible isn’t going to win us the next midterm, and it’s probably why we lost in 2016.
@Bill Arnold:
It kind of is my point, in that where were these efforts the last ~10 years?
Baud
@Bill Arnold:
Reagan took office in 1981 and it still took several years for that recovery to take hold.
J R in WV
@anarchoRex:
It is SO hard to see with your eyes tightly closed!!! Isn’t it, comrade!?!
Another Scott
@Baud: The Federal Funds rate didn’t drop below 10% until October 1982. Once Volcker took his boot off the neck of the economy, it recovered very quickly – especially when the sugar high of the tax cuts and ramped up defense spending took hold.
Again, it’s not an exact match, but Reagan’s tax cuts and recovery act ended up being much, much bigger than originally proposed because just about everyone in Congress was rushing to get their christmas presents included in the bill. The ARRA, on the other hand, was hampered because of stupid concerns about ONE TRILLION DOLLARS, GOP intransigence, and all the rest.
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@anarchoRex:
Seriously?
So you’re admitting that you can’t add numbers up in your head?
Citizen’s United raised more money for Republican candidates every year than anyone else did for Democrats.
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
This predates Trump. Biden has been asked many times over the years about apologizing, and he never did.
joel hanes
@anarchoRex:
Obama is black.
That was the proximate reason for the Republican insurgence from 2008 on.
Sec. Clinton is a woman. That, plus Russian ratfucking, and Comey’s overweening ego, and a quarter-century of heavily-funded Arkansas Project ratfucking, and the stupidity of the New York Times, and the vote-suppression shenanigans of the Republicans, and the fact that Obama is black, and the fecklessness of purity-pony soi-disant “leftists” were the mechanisms determined the 2016 Presidential election.
In short, go peddle your preening sense of superiority elsewhere.
anarchoRex
@J R in WV: I addressed this upthread already
ETA: https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/summ.php?cycle=2010&chrt=P&disp=O&type=A
anarchoRex
@joel hanes: Uh, why are you bringing this up? I’m not talking about the 2016 presidential election.
phein60
@Ruckus:
Joe only does what is right when he is under extreme scrutiny from actual Democrats, not party apparatchiks. Otherwise, he’s more comfortable with bankers, CC companies, and other rent-seekers.
If Joe came out and said, “I don’t just make these [progressive] promises, I’ll have Abrams/Harris/Warren as my VP with the charge to keep me true to our campaign promises,” I’d feel at least marginally better.
brantl
@anarchoRex: Sarcasm and snark is “lashing out”? Grow up.
Richard Guhl
I have a hunch, ironic as it may be, that a Biden Presidency might actually rack up the most progressive accomplishments.
While Sanders makes the most radical proposals, Joe Manchin will listen far more favorably to Biden.
We tend to forget how important friendships are to lawmaking and overvalue the power of ideas. Joe’s affability may prove to be a huge asset.
anarchoRex
@Richard Guhl: I’m curious what progressive legislation you are expecting Biden to put it on the line and support? I’m honestly not very familiar with his platform, never comes up in the media.
Richard Guhl
@Bill Arnold:
The Great Recession unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2010. The shellacking at the polls was inevitable.
Richard Guhl
@anarchoRex:
He favors adding a Medicare public option to Obamacare and expanding subsidies to those above the 400% FPL income.
He has come out in favor of a Green New Deal.
He clearly sees himself as Obama’s 3rd term, and undoubtedly would like to accomplish the unfinished business of immigration reform.
Barb 2
@Chyron HR:
Nope – never!!!!
Biden has a penis – not going to vote for one of those old boys again.
We must have people who have a vision of the future.
Cory Brooks has an women’s card – he seems to get “it”. Feminists know what I mean.
Males have f***ed up we need women to clean up the messes.
anarchoRex
@Richard Guhl: Thanks for the response. If he accomplished nothing else, at least making real progress in mitigating the climate crisis would be amazing.
Kathleen Darrah
@Another Scott: Elizabeth Warren has contributed bigly to other Democrats campaignd.
Barb 2
@anarchoRex:
Climate crisis – climate change. THIS is so very important, perhaps the most important issue facing the world. I am proud of my governor for focusing on climate change.
We knew about climate change and what would happen if human behavior didn’t change way back when Nixon was president.. Today’s kids really do understand that their future is questionable and that they might not live to ripe old ages. Of course kids also have to think about mass shooting and other things.
Candidates have to have a strong message about the future. I have a feeling that the coming of age voters are going to be critical to any win. Of course, people of color will also be vital to winning. The GOP will be doing everything possible to depress the blue vote.
Which candidate can take all the dirty tricks that Trump and the GOP will be throwing her way? this will probably be the dirtiest election ever (or since 2016).
We all have critical decisions. No more caucus in my state!!!!!!!! So now all primary votes will count. All votes must be counted – that is a grass roots goal we need to work on.
206inKY
@Martin: 2008 and 2018 were very different winning coalitions. Much of what is Trump’s base stayed home in 2008. Democrats ran a dream candidate who sent turnout through the roof. We won Indiana.
2018 was a very different blue wave. We were crushed in Indiana and Missouri, crushed everywhere white and rural. We barely lost Florida, which should have been a hold. But then we came inches in Georgia and Texas while flipping the Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston suburbs. We won Arizona, which had been out of reach for decades, took back the MI/WI governorships, and somehow pulled off every single seat in Orange County.
Minority turnout was high in both 2008 and 2018 and is a necessary element for any Democratic victory. But the two most significant changes in voting behavior from 2008 to 2018 were 1) the mass mobilization of the white racist vote, which turned out in force in both 2016 and 2018, and 2) the backlash against Trumpism in the college-educated suburbs in 2018.
I don’t trust the resilience of the suburban backlash, but 2018 would have been lost without it. And the problem with running on new big-ticket federal programs is that suburban voters simply aren’t as economically precarious as the working poor. That’s why they were assholes and voted Republican until now.
I strongly urge everyone to watch the HBO documentary on Beto. I think his focus on guns, immigration, choice, criminal justice reform, and corruption is potent in bridging the 2008 and 2018 coalitions. He speaks truth to power and has that whiff of sunbelt libertarianism so critical to carrying the suburbs. I’m not sure any other candidate is better positioned to crush it in Arizona, which would take the pressure off Wisconsin as the make-or-break state.
Richard Guhl
@206inKY:
Rachel Bitecofer predicts a record turnout for 2020 of what she calls the terrified electorate. Trump’s base will be out in full force, but the turnout of Democrats and Independents freaked out by the prospects of a 2nd Trump term will be massive. As he did in 2018, Trump will be the main motivator of Democrats in 2020.
Jiminy C.
@artem1s: So I’m not an actual Democrat, though I’ve voted Democratic exclusively for 40 years. Good to know.
And statements like this make me support him even more, over all the candidates with “plans” and “visions” (and ponies!). Who will never even get one “plan” through a GOP controlled Senate…