The most recent ECMWF model has a dramatic shift in Invest 95L track.
Gone is any hint of Gulf of Mexico, instead developing a powerful Hurricane off the Southeast Coast in 3-5 days.
This is a surprising turn of events. pic.twitter.com/xXAmuClLEJ
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 12, 2019
Right now, there is a possible tropical system that is projected to develop. And if it does develop, it could roughly tag along Dorian’s track. So if you’re on the Southeast Coast or in the Bahamas, time to start keeping an eye on the weather again.
dmsilev
Has Trump tweeted his forecast yet?
rikyrah
?????
JPL
How sad!
Cheryl Rofer
The last thing we need now is a hurricane named Humbert Humbert.
JPL
@dmsilev: He’s going to mentioning Alabama again, isn’t he.
Currants
@Cheryl Rofer: BEST COMMENT OF THE DAY ALREADY.
Another Scott
The NHC isn’t indicating worry about the East Coast yet (as of 2 AM):
It’s still very early, and weather is chaotic.
To be clear: all of the models have their good and bad points. One needs to keep an eye on several sources.
Fingers crossed in any event.
Cheers,
Scott.
Amir Khalid
The last thing they need in the Bahamas is another hurricane.
WereBear
@Cheryl Rofer: Okay, I needed that LOL.
Anyone else suffering from a low-key feeling of dread?
Now for me, I adopt two kittens and take a rest.
Might not work for everyone, but it sure works for me :)
Keith P.
@Cheryl Rofer: What about “Humperdoo”?
Another Scott
An interesting article on a next-generation climate model (CLIMA) being developed at the Naval Postgraduate School/Caltech/MIT using a computer language called Julia.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Cheryl Rofer: I think a hurricane by that name laying waste to Epstein’s island would be amusing.
Betty
This would be unimaginably distressful for the people in the Bahamas. Just the threat may push some people over the edge. You have no idea if you haven’t lived through a Cat 5 hurricane. Not seeing any basis for humor. Sorry.
JPL
@Betty: How are you doing?
Spanky
More importantly, has the NWS been informed yet about the danger to Alabama.
OT, I see Ed Rendell’s shit show hit piece in the WaPo doesn’t take comments, or at least I can’t find them on my phone. Too bad. He’s such a transparent fraud that it would have been entertaining.
sherparick
@dmsilev: Alabama is getting prepared:-).
By the way, getting back to the other huge crimes that Mulvaney, McConnell, and the rest of the Republican Party commit while the Trump Show gives them cover, they must be so proud of this statistic:
“Second year in a row
Nearly half a million more children were uninsured in 2018 than in 2017. Data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau shows a rise in the number of children without health insurance for the second year in a row. The increase was most stark among kids in the south, rising from 6.5 percent to 7.7 percent. One cause of the trend is a drop in the number of children covered by public services, such as Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program. [NPR]” But her emails, right! And civility, right! I like to give all these Republicans & purity leftists “civility” up their butts with a chainsaw.
Betty Cracker
@Spanky: Your phone isn’t letting you see them — there are thousands of comments, and Rendell’s ass is getting roasted at Le Post as well as dragged all over Twitter. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving hack, and I hope it blows back on whichever Biden aide authorized the broadside.
geg6
Oh, please not the Bahamas. Please.
Spanky
@Betty Cracker: Thanks, Betty! That makes me feel better.
ETA – “Biden aide?” I would look straight to the top, given those 2 old pol-pals’ history.
Betty
@JPL: Hi, we are good here. Thanks for asking. Dorian was just a small storm when it passed this way, but every storm that threatens brings up the possibility of the enormous destruction we suffered with Maria. Now that most people have their lives pretty much back to normal, the thought of seeing it destroyed all over again is unbearable. For the Bahamas, still reeling from the destruction, I can’t imagine how they will deal.
JPL
@geg6: The local weather person said that they could receive up to five inches of rain. The amount of human suffering is unimaginable. Just awful.
daveNYC
The Euro model is good, but the spaghetti chart has a lot of options on where this could end up going.
jo6pac
Well you can’t believe anything from NOAA until the trumpster give his blessing;-)
Steeplejack
The weather in Las Vegas is nice this morning. I’ve been up for a while—wretched sleep hygiene—and took the trash/recycling bins to the curb a little while ago. Refreshing: slightly windy and 71°. Predawn glow in the desert sky. It’s going up “only” to 93° later today, but it’s amazing what a difference that is from 105° a week ago. It’s going to be hot this weekend, back over 100°, but then it’ll be back below 90° next week. Just in time for me to leave!
MattF
@Spanky: My iPad shows over 3000 comments, so it’s not a mobile gadget constraint.
waysel
@Steeplejack: From last night… plural of Chao is chaos……it had me stumped as well until this morning.
chopper
@WereBear:
you have no idea.
Steeplejack
@waysel:
D’oh! Thank you!
Rob
@Steeplejack: Here in the DC suburbs, or at least my suburb, this morning’s prediction for the high today was 97 degrees. I just refreshed the page, and it’s now “only” supposed to reach 93 degrees. Even that’s about 12 degrees above the average high for the date. So at least DC won’t be warmer than Las Vegas today.
As for a new tropical system forming in or near the Bahamas, my god, no, please. NO.
gvg
@WereBear: Naming can have unexpected results. We picked my nephews puppy out and named him on the long drive home. My sister and I through out every name we could think of and nephew critiqued (said no mostly). I tend to start thinking of book characters because I read and remember books. He liked Riki Tiki Tavi. I think he was five. Anyway we get home, and the 6 to 8 week old puppy found a garter snake and killed it within the first hour. Garter snakes aren’t even that common at the house and soon they were even less common. I think he got a glass snake later and he “killed” 2 stuffed toy snakes as well. This dog is very sweet and submissive, totally focused on getting our attention, personality seems almost like a golden retriever we had. Was born in a shelter and had no past involving snakes that we could find out.
I think the snakes learned to keep away and we learned not to buy toy snakes. Our family is not afraid of snakes and my nephew actually liked them, though not as much as frogs. We didn’t sense anything during naming beyond loving attention.
Sometimes in the first few days, you keep trying names on for fit. That time, the first name stuck.
Aleta
@Another Scott: Thanks
Steeplejack
@Rob:
Jeez, I haven’t been keeping track of the NoVA weather since I’ve been out here. I do have the geezer urge to obsessively track the weather—dunno where it came from, I never used to care about the weather at all—but I’m usually selfishly focused on the local. My friend here did mention something about a “heat wave” back in D.C., but I didn’t get more than that. Hope it cools off by next Thursday, when I return!
And everybody jokes about it, but there definitely is a difference with a dry heat: 93° here feels much better than 93° in D.C.
Doug R
I can’t believe this storm isn’t named Harambe.
Barbara
@Spanky: WaPo has been having a lot of problems with comments. They seem to be trying a new comment system and it only works as of now on some browsers not including Chrome.
StringOnAStick
@WereBear: I hadn’t had kittens since I was a child though I’ve almost always had cats (lots of adult rescues). Then we got a bonded pair of tiny little girls, both long haired torbies. We couldn’t name them immediately because we wanted to see more of their personality first so they were temporarily “Cat 1 and Cat 2” .
Cat 2 became Tutu, after what my husband’s younger brother called him as a kid because he couldn’t pronounce Stewart. His brother had died the year before so it’s a tribute, but the name also fits because this cat is too, too smart, a real thinker, unlike who she was named after, so she’s made it her own. Cat 1 started out as Tiny Cat, and has grown into a very large cat so her official name is now Tiny Bobcat. The more common names for them are Sweetpea, Pretty Girl, Fluffy Buns, and Thunder Makers for the loud running around playtime. We’ve never had more than one cat, and these two together are so much fun!
Lyrebird
Has anyone seen a letter campaign or something to help this 12 yr old Bahamian girl be reunited with her family?
Warning: your blood will boil if it’s not already. Wonkette link.
Fair Economist
There isn’t even a cyclone formed yet, and all the models are bad at predicting when and where a cyclone will form. 7 days out is a long time for hurricane forecasting, too. Even with the Euro, the best hurricane modeler, this prediction does not mean much.
Skepticat
@Amir Khalid:
I’ve already lost almost everything, though my shed and library still stand, but there are people on the island right now working to save the very few homes remaining. If any of you knows about any resources for temporary housing, I’d appreciate any information you have.
I keep adding photos of destruction to my Google drive. https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1ziTet5SLaWl91lG1DHUfYfD8RwjUvL79
@chopper:
I would so love to be that cheerful!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker: @Spanky:
Rendell never got over the idea that he would be HRC’s eminence grise*, followed by an ambassadorship to Ireland (I’m guessing) in the second term. I lost sight of him after spent most of BHO’s first term trolling on MSNBC, I guess cause I finally quit watching tweety.
*If not EG to Bubba as First EG– he’s a true believer in the Magic Of Bubba. Also, autocorrect kept trying to change “grise” to “gross”, which I was tempted to leave
Zinsky
God save Alabama! Yeah that global climate change thing is just a big Chinese hoax perpetrated by all of those Chinese liberals. Of course our government (the Deep State one, not the pristine Trump Administration) has this HAARP thing that they can use to control the hurricanes and steer them this way or that. Or something….
– – Alex Jones
NotMax
“Beeline for South Dakota.”
– The White House
NotMax
@Steeplejack
Bah. Death Valley is a dry heat.
Broiled or boiled, the end result is still cooked meat.
;)
CliosFanboy
@Cheryl Rofer: the Hurricane Season is young, still unsullied and almost virginal.
rikyrah
@Lyrebird:
Like so many of the migrant children, they have relatives in the United States WHO WOULD GLADLY TAKE THEM IN.
But, these Demons WON’T CALL THE RELATIVES.
THEY WANT THE CHILDREN IN THE CAMPS.
satby
@Betty: what I remember most from working in the Gulf coast of MS. after Katrina was the smell. Decaying bodies, fish, animals, rotting seaweed… I never really got used to it the entire time I was deployed there. It is unimaginable if you’ve never experienced it.
Glad you’re doing ok.
trollhattan
You jackals have already emptied the Alabama jokes jar.
Tide roll.
Gin & Tonic
@NotMax: I was once talking to a Park Ranger there, who said “once it gets above 120, you can really feel it.” I felt it pretty well at 117, frankly.
NotMax
@satby
Remember reading a story about people going in to open up a warehouse loaded to the rafters with shrimp (IIRC in Mississippi) post-Katrina, after a week or more has passed without power.
The writer gave up on selecting adjectives; the bare facts were entirely sufficient to fire up the olfactory imagination.
MattF
@Barbara: There’s something going on there— I’ve noticed that sometimes the URL is beta.washingtonpost.etc.
WereBear
@gvg: I think names are a mystical connection between ourselves and our pets, somewhat like the names we give our children, though pets are far more easily changed. :)
NotMax
@Gin & Tonic
The scenes filmed there for the silent film Greed remain incredible. As the tale is told, the crew ended up swathing the cameras in ice in order to successfully be able to film.
One of the great losses to film history is the lost footage from editing the finished movie down from many hours (contemporaneous reports vary – some say 8 hours, some say ten) to what was released in theaters). As noted at the time, Erich von Stroheim virtually used the massive book (McTeague) as a script, filming it page by page.
WereBear
Bwahahahaha!
Cat World Domination continues.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic:
My known top temp is 118, which I’ve experienced in Redding, CA and Phoenix, AZ. Big difference was due to it being August and “monsoon season” in Arizona, which bumped humidity well into double digits and made it utterly unbearable.
Either way, it really, really sucks and I don’t understand the European attraction to Death Valley. Knock yourselves out, folks (literally).
misterpuff
@Keith P.: Qubert!
JPL
@Lyrebird: Her mother needs to get her birth certificate by Sept. 26th. That is how long trump will allow the family to stay in the country. Cruelty and inhumanity is what gives trump his jollies.
JPL
@Skepticat: It’s horrifying and I can’t imagine the angst that you are feeling.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan: They want to experience 50 Celsius (which is 122 F.) I was, frankly, a little disappointed last time I went, when it only got up as high as 121, because I wanted to take a pic of the car’s thermometer and send it to some of my European friends.
rikyrah
@JPL:
I hate these DEMONS
NotMax
@Gin & Tonic
Pikers. Go to Kuwait, which got into the 60s Celsius this year.
JPL
@rikyrah: We all do.
Spanky
@Gin & Tonic: I suspect they’ll be experience 50C right there at home, soon enough. The prognosis is grim.
Uncle Cosmo
@Rob: Lucky you – InaccuWeather still has “Bawlmer Merlin Hon” on track for 97. And tomorrow, high of 75. Go figger.
Rob
@Steeplejack: The National Weather Service forecasts currently go out as far next Wednesday, when the high is supposed to be around 80 in my ‘burb. Considering that Monday should be around 90 and Tuesday 86, I suspect that next Thursday should be under 90 and probably (possibly?) even be under 85.
I always smile when I see a 100 degree temperature and a feels-like/heat index temperature of 95 for places out west. Summer-time humidity sucks here in DC. Enjoy the rest of your sojourn!
Aleta
@JPL: His sadism is off the scale.
As well, a few of the many stories about his sex abuse pointed to him being a chillingly sick monster, but our culture treats different subjects more vs less worthy of being unsubstantiated risk.
Rob
@Uncle Cosmo: Thanks! Too bad Bawlmer didn’t share in the temperature reduction. I work from home so I don’t have to venture out for commuting purposes. I think I am staying indoors today.
For the past few days, the National Weather Service has been predicting a much cooler Friday. It looks like it’s because of a system/front moving through. So, Accuweather is actually living up to it’s name. And know that I’ll be heading outdoors for a work break tomorrow.
Spanky
@Uncle Cosmo: Enjoy your heat island, hon! Down here on the Boondocks by the Bay it’s only supposed to be 93.
Dew point of 70, too. That seems to be dropping because of the change of seasons. Maybe.
Kent
I’m curious. Are there any Bahamas experts here? In all the coverage of Dorian I haven’t really seen much discussion of the demographics and ownership patterns in the Bahamas. According to this older article, up to 80% of property buyers in the Bahamas were Americans. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/greathomesanddestinations/real-estate-in-the-bahamas.html
What are the differences between the islands? Who was really affected? What percentage of these destroyed properties were owned by American/Canadian/Euro expats vs local Bahamians?
As a Northwesterner I basically know nothing about the Bahamas and had to google map it to find exactly where they were. I knew they were somewhere off the coast of Florida but wasn’t exactly sure where. I’d be interested in reading a basic primer on the Bahamas and who exactly this hurricane has affected.
Kent
I’m curious. Are there any Bahamas experts here? In all the coverage of Dorian I haven’t really seen much discussion of the demographics and ownership patterns in the Bahamas. According to this older article, up to 80% of property buyers in the Bahamas were Americans. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/greathomesanddestinations/real-estate-in-the-bahamas.html
What are the differences between the islands? Who was really affected? What percentage of these destroyed properties were owned by American/Canadian/Euro expats vs local Bahamians?
As a Northwesterner I basically know nothing about the Bahamas and had to google map it to find exactly where they were. I knew they were somewhere off the coast of Florida but wasn’t exactly sure where. I’d be interested in reading a basic primer on the Bahamas and who exactly this hurricane has affected.
rikyrah
Looking at the clips of Renee Zellweger in this new movie based on Judy Garland. I didn’t realize that Judy was only 47 when she died. Damn. She went thru it. I think Renee is going to be amazing in it.
rikyrah
Trump Administration Officials Arrested for Scamming Puerto Rico Out of $1.8 Billion in Hurricane Relief Funds
Michael Harriot
Yesterday 3:00pm
jl
Hope the model goes the 30 percent chance that a bad storm or hurricane doesn’t develop. So far, the established science, which so far has been borne out by experience, is that man made greenhouse gas driven climate change will make storms more intense, but not increase the number of storms.I’m getting curious to look into that to see how that idea works in more detail.
Seems at some point when ‘mere’ intensification gets more severe, there should be an increase in number of storms and hurricanes, as well as increase in strength. Why should the intensification, which as I understand it is driven by warmer water and higher differential between warmer warm air and colder air be limited to hurricanes that are already formed. Won’t the intensification work its way down the chain to depressions at some point? Hence more storms and hurricanes?
Problem is that getting a statistically significant result, using old school classical hypothesis driven approach to published results (the magic but arbitrary p < 0.05) takes a lot of data when dealing with new extremes. So by the time things are figured out on that basis, we’re kind of USC.
Maybe some wonk on the climate and weather can set me straight if I am wrong on this.
Kent
@rikyrah: Were these two women career FEMA employees or Trump appointees? The article is poorly written and doesn’t say. Makes a difference in my mind. I’d not label a career civil service employee a “Trump Administration Official.” I’d reserve that title for those actually appointed by Trump. I spent 15 years working for NOAA and would never have considered myself a Clinton, Bush, or Obama administration official even though I worked under all of those administrations.
joel hanes
@WereBear:
Anyone else suffering from a low-key feeling of dread?
My feelings of dread were low-key from Nov 2016 (when the rough beast slouched into the White House) to mid 2017.
It’s been steady escalation since then, and reached debilitating levels some time this summer.
Now I can only stand to engage with the news about three days a week.
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer:
Late to the thread, but, very droll.
Brachiator
@rikyrah:
I have been hearing good things about the film.
BTW, Australian actress Judy Davis won an Emmy for her role as the adult Judy Garland in the 2001 TV mini series Judy Garland: Me and My Shadows.
Noncarborundum
@Keith P.:Humperdinck! Humperdinck! Humperdinck!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd6kAJpYhKs
Paul T
Weather Porn Bloggers are getting tiresome.
Steeplejack (phone)
@NotMax:
Greed was just on TCM again a couple of nights ago.
TenguPhule
@dmsilev:
Alabama is predicted to be the center of the shitshow again.
Dan B
@jl: Dead thread but here’s a simple explanation. As hurricanes become more intense many become larger as well. These storms pull cooler water from depth. Since tropical storms form in a similar track from west Africa across the Atlantic any storm cooling a large part of the ocean limits the amount of moisture that can be fed into the next pulse /tropical storm. Water warms slowly, much slower than land so there is a latency in the ocean.
jl
@Dan B: Thanks. Makes sense. Will be very helpful in understanding when I look at tome articles on it
Kent
@Dan B: Except that the Gulf Stream Current has an average speed of about 4 mph so it doesn’t take long for any cool water left in the path of a hurricane to be flushed away by new warm water flowing out of the Gulf and Caribbean on the Gulf Stream current.
Captain C
@WereBear: Those are adorable kitties. Both of them, but especially Lou, remind me of my late cat Kashmir.
J R in WV
@satby:
While in the USN my ship was sent to a yard overhaul in Pascagoula MS [truly one of the chancres on the ass of North America!] and I took advantage of that location to take wife to New Orleans. As we drove west on the coastal highway, we were stunned to see ships, real, big, ocean going ships, lodged up in the woods north of the highway.
Realized slowly that Camille — one of the largest hurricanes up until that time — had washed a whole fleet of ships hundreds of yards into the coastal forest. Image is still with me, refreshed with each hurricane/cyclone/oceanic disaster.
Skepticat
@Kent: I’m not an expert, but up until a few days ago, I was a resident most of the year. I haven’t seen those figures, but I wouldn’t doubt them. The Bahamas are a country with the equivalent of quite a few states. Abaco, where my home was, was settled by loyalists during the American Revolution, so for a long time it was predominantly white. On two long-settled islands near me, the architecture is very New England. Abaco’s second-homeowner population is fairly cosmopolitan—lots of Canadians and Austrians, and now the Chinese are coming. All the island groups are different, however. And Nassau qualifies as the armpit. Only Abaco and Grand Bahama (where Freeport, the country’s second-largest city, is) were really hit by Dorian. But that was enough, as they’ve been obliterated. Too bad, as I think you’d have loved them. I’d pontificate more, but I have to go back to wrangling comms.