A great many details are coming out about the raid that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of ISIS. It’s looking like (surprise!) not all the details that President Donald Trump gave at his statement this morning were accurate, but I’d like to let things settle out a bit before trying to work through them. Trump gave out a lot of operational information, as is his wont, so at this very moment people are sifting through that information to learn more, both in the open intelligence community and in national intelligence services.
The one thing I will note is a big contradiction between Trump’s recent retreat (and then return?) from Syria and his saying that this operation had been going on for weeks. To cover for an operation like this, the smartest thing would have been to continue US operations in Syria as they had been going. That would have meant turning down President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s desire to go after the Kurds – delay his operation at least. It’s not clear what role this contradiction played in the actual events, but I suspect it was significant.
So let’s look at what we have. Reports are coming out that Trump’s victory photograph was staged a couple of hours after the operation. It certainly looks staged. Let’s compare that photo and the photo of President Barack Obama’s team during the operation to kill Osama bin Laden.
The Trump photo contains only six people, all white men, all old except Defense Secretary Mark Esper. It looks like a seventh may have been cut out of the photo at the left, with a laptop in front of him. From left to right, they are National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, Vice President Mike Pence, Trump, Esper, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, and a military man I don’t know. Most obviously missing is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
The Obama photo contains fifteen people, only two in full suit and tie.
The Obama photo is active – people are engaged with a screen to our left. The Trump photo is static, posed, about the men,particularly Trump. All of them are looking at the camera, hoping for a place in posterity, although Esper may be looking at something above the camera.
The mess of cables almost steals the center of the photo from Trump. A short red cable lies unconnected in the foreground. For a number of reasons, including security, I would have gotten those cables out of the way in the preparation for the photo. Notice the more economical arrangement of laptops in the Obama photo. Also coffee cups, which indicate an operation in progress.
The Obama photo is much more diverse – two women, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Audrey Tomason, Director for Counterterrorism for the National Security Council. Additionally, the clothes and manner of wearing them varies across the photo, as do the postures and facial expressions of the participants. Identifications of all the people in the photo at Wikipedia. It’s a team of people, each contributing something different to make the operation work.
Trump is, of course, at the center of his photo, the seal of the President of the United States just above his head, in case anyone might not recognize who this is.
Both photos show papers that may contain classified information. In both cases, I think the papers are too blurred to see much, but I am sure we will hear from the open-source intelligence folks if they can figure something out.
I’m posting this quickly to get ahead of the news flow. Already the New York Times has an article supporting my surmise about the contradiction between the retreat and this raid. It also looks like Trump was golfing rather than watching the raid, as he claimed. More later.
Update: The officer on the right is Brig. Gen. Marcus Evans, the Pentagon’s deputy director for special operations and counterterrorism.
guachi
Real photo; real President.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
You can’t trust anything the guy says–other than in a perverse way: you can trust that anything the guy says is a lie. He truly is a whole new level of pitiful.
Sam
No IC people in trumps staging. The IC is going to be in for a rough time of it.
Zinsky
Trump couldn’t catch anything besides venereal disease, the fatass freeloader. If it’s not on FoxNews or written on his golf bag, this lump of shit has not read it….
zhena gogolia
sukabi
Cheryl, it’s not just the red cable in front that’s disconnected, there are several others that are just laying next to the laptops and the pads under them that aren’t connected to anything.
It’s a poorly staged photo, even by drumfpian standards.
Are we sure they’ve actually figured out how to turn on the lights?
Mike in NC
I still maintain that Pence is kept in cold storage in a broom closet near the Oval Office. That way he can be quickly thawed out for an impromptu photo op, like this one.
Llelldorin
To my mind, the most telling difference is that in the Obama-era photo Gen. Webb, as the incident commander (or whatever the correct term for this is; I’m appropriating terms from the tech industry where I work), is centered on the table. Obama is off to the side, as you’d expect for a leader who isn’t actually running the operation in question—it’s ultimately his responsibility, but he’s not running the operation in a minute-to-minute way, so he doesn’t need to be front and center just then.
Trump has to put himself in the middle in any photograph, even where it makes no sense.
dmsilev
So, all those Ethernet cables suggests that WiFi isn’t allowed. Reasonable enough. So, then what about that tablet (an iPad maybe?) at lower left? Just another detail that says ‘contrived photo’.
piratedan
staged, just like the last Presidential election…
trollhattan
“Okay guys, hands on the table. Don’t worry sir, I’m hiding yours.”
Sam
Just as a fact, in the place where I work they unplug a lot of cables when doing something sensitive. Usually different colors for different networks,
Mary G
Kurds say they also got al-Baghdadi’s right hand man in another operation, with help from Kurds.
dmsilev
Tomorrow should be …interesting. When Trump doesn’t get the adulation he feels he deserves, he lashes out. A lot. There Will Be Tweets.
donnah
Of course Trump will take something of real importance and turn the spotlight on himself. Instead of allowing more than a momentary breath for the Special OPS, he might have quietly congratulated them and the rest of the military for a successful mission, and offered praise for completing the mission with no loss of American lives.
Instead we get a dog’s (canine?) breakfast of gory, violent language, and self-congratulation, sprinkled with praise for Putin and Erdogan. What the everloving fuck?
I just despise this repulsive bag of shit.
delk
This will just take a sec. Let me stand right in front of the screen you are watching to grab this pic. No, don’t try to look around me as I block the action. Don’t smile! Great, great… let me grab just a couple more to make sure.
hilts
h/t https://lawandcrime.com/awkward/critics-allege-situation-room-photo-showing-trump-watching-baghdadi-raid-was-staged/
Matt McIrvin
Trump could have gotten a huge if temporary credibility boost from this just by announcing it in an understated and dignified manner. But he can’t.
MattF
The red and the yellow cables all look disconnected, the attendees are all looking at the photographer, there is no sign of any actual event taking place or of any information being shared. Totally staged, and badly.
trollhattan
@Matt McIrvin:
To his, uh, defense he managed to not say “Neener-neener, losingest loser!”
janesays
@dmsilev: It’s the Sit Room (which is actually a group of rooms on the ground floor of the West Wing) – there is no WiFi.
janesays
@Matt McIrvin: This. I was nervous about this resulting in him getting endless fawning media coverage for days, but because this clown can’t do anything without stepping on his own dick, they’re mostly focused on the idiocy of the messenger, more than the message.
Another Scott
Reuters has a timeline.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
Twitter:
So, assuming this is correct, the timestamp on the WH picture is likely correct.
It’s still badly staged/posed/composed whatever you want to call it.
A competent administration would have had a timeline available with the press conference to head-off these questions – questions that you know will feed conspiracy theories for the next 10 years (if people actually talk about it).
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@Llelldorin:
Also notice in the President Obama photo the general is looking at his laptop and looks to be typing and no one is looking at the camera, all are looking at something on the wall. Everyone in the shitgibbon photo is looking at the camera and doing nothing else. It’s a photo shoot, nothing more. In the President Obama photo all the laptops look the same, maybe government issue? In the shitgibbon photo all different. Seems strange to me but then this entire maladministration is strange.
Cheryl Rofer
Trump’s friends undermining him, even though he mentioned them first. You can’t trust anybody these days
The Golux
The tweets after he is booed at tonight’s Nats game will be interesting.
James E Powell
We really don’t need to compare photographs to understand the difference between Obama and Trump. Do we?
Amir Khalid
The essential difference between the two photographs: Trump’s is a posed formal portrait of people just sitting there, with himself at the focus; Obama’s is an unposed photo of people at work, with himself on the side as an engaged observer. Trump needs to be seen at the centre of things. Obama just lets his people get on with it.
Mai naem mobile
For the fucking millionth time I cannot fucking believe Hillary lost to this piece of garbage total waste of skin. I cannot believe Trumpov a fucking Russian asset if not agent has a 37 percent approval rating. BTW does anybody even believe he knew who Al Baghdadi was when he was playing golf while the raid was going on? The photo is so obviously staged. Trumpov thinks he’s pulling off the Clint Eastwood steely cowboy stare but he can’t do it. Idiot.
Marcopolo
@Sam: Honestly, the thing to keep in mind about Trump & the IC is that Trump has an instinctual fear & hatred of anyone who might know about all his shady crimey wimey stuff. And they know.
jeffreyw
zhena gogolia
@Mai naem mobile:
Come sit by me.
Ksmiami
@donnah: I hate him and his supporters so fucking much that I no longer want them in my country – fascist traitors all
zhena gogolia
@Ksmiami:
You can come sit by me too.
JPL
@Cheryl Rofer: haha If you can’t trust your only friend, who ya gonna trust.
Gelfling 545
Maybe I’m misinterpreting but while Trump’s minions are making their serious faces, the 2 military gentlemen look pissed.
Amir Khalid
@Cheryl Rofer:
They’re playing Trump like a cheap ukulele. As usual.
JPL
@Gelfling 545: One doesn’t appear to be looking the same direction as trump.
Marcopolo
@jeffreyw: Deleted for confusing John Conyers w/ John Dingell which shows how badly my brain processed the news.
MattF
@Gelfling 545: The photo is a dominance display. Give generals a message to ‘look submissive’ and that expression is what you’ll get.
James E Powell
@Mai naem mobile:
I can believe it because I saw it. What I can’t believe is that the NYT, CNN, the FBI director, the New York FBI agents, Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders supporters, white women, the Young Turks, Susan Sarandon, and the rest all thought President Trump was a good idea.
delk
He does look like he’s copping one of Melania’s facial poses.
tom
@Marcopolo: Is it possible you are confusing John Conyers with the late John Dingell? Dingell was a terrific tweeter of any generation. I don’t think Conyers was on Twitter.
tom
@Marcopolo: Nevermind, you fixed your comment. But FYWP won’t let me change mine for some reason.
OGLiberal
Few things:
1) Probably not staged from a timing perspective.
2) That said, photo completely staged, Obama photo clearly not
3) The number of people who knew who the guy from Bagdhad was who are US president before today is zero. General voters who knew who he was are probably confined to this blog
4) Never a fan of extrajudicial killings but good job to the intelligence and military folks who pulled this off
5) In terms of electoral politics, this moves the needle nothing. See point 3. At most, this gets Lindsey all excited.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Matt McIrvin: If he were capable of acting in an understated and dignified manner, he wouldn’t be Trump. The idiocy doesn’t interrupt his better behavior. The idiocy is him. There is no better behavior available.
HalfAssedHomesteader
To me it looks like Pence is looking at something off to our left and Mark Milley is the only one looking at the photographer — he looks like a hostage. And I’m pretty sure that’s a tablet on the left not a laptop.
Another Scott
Twitter:
He’s incapable, of course.
She has a later tweet with a longer statement, also too.
Cheers,
Scott.
Mnemosyne
@Mai naem mobile:
Hillary didn’t “lose.” Trump cheated with the help of the Russians.
Unfortunately the MSM can’t let go of their visceral hatred of her long enough to see what’s right in front of them.
smintheus
Thing that makes the Trump photo look most staged is the fact that people are looking in several different directions. Pence’s gaze is at least 70 degrees off from whatever the brass are looking at.
sukabi
@Amir Khalid: more like a cheap kazoo, badly blown hot air, sounds awful, but doesn’t matter because drumpf thinks it’s AWESOME because he’s a ridiculously stupid little man-boy.
Ladyraxterinok
@jeffreyw:
I remember when he tried to hold a hearing while he was ranking minority member of some committee.
First GOP put them in small, cramped, dusty out of way room. Bit later they turned off heat/AC and lights.
GOP are true princes of democracy!
Elizabelle
@Mnemosyne: Thank you for saying that.
Hillary did not lose.
And I hope that, before long, we can all get confirmation that the EC “victory” was cheating, too.
Elizabelle
@Mnemosyne:
I took this part of my comment out, because it does make me sound like a whackadoodle, but I think the MSM missed the biggest story of their generation. That we have an illegitimate president, who cheated in the swing states, did not actually win the EC either, (although the certification by the EC technically makes him legitimate, I guess) … and most of them have been lapping up to him for access and force multiplying his every tweet and comment ever since.
I don’t know what will happen to the 2016 election records, since the cheating happened pretty much in the swing states with Republican governors. But I do think it was illegitimate, and that Obama and others should have put the brakes on while there was a complete canvass at the time. It was that important. **
Think of all the horrors and destruction that have followed in this cretin’s wake.
Think of how none of us can be assured that we will get a fair election in 2020.
** ETA: Maybe there is not a legal avenue for ordering a full canvass. But it turns out to have been more important than not looking like sore losers.
patrick II
I was surprised by this announcement since I have been told that ISIS had been completely wiped out months ago. I am also surprised and somewhat confused that we are sending in troops to protect the oil fields from totally defeated and, as Trump personally took credit for, the “obliterated” ISIS.
HalfAssedHomesteader
The tangle of cables suggest to me that the room was quickly cleared of the people actually monitoring the situation so Trump could take a photo op after everything had concluded.
mrmoshpotato
Surprised Dump’s not giving his dumbass punch-my-face grin and baby fingers thumbs up.
OGLiberal
@Elizabelle: I agree about the ratfuckery and Hillary did win the popular by a relatively large amount but given what we were facing, turnout should have overcome the ratfuckery in the three key states. Hope apathy doesn’t come into play this time.
mrmoshpotato
@dmsilev:
and spittle.
mrmoshpotato
@Matt McIrvin:
May I suggest you find an open mic night near you? ?
mrmoshpotato
@MattF: Say “We’re not a bastard administration!” *shutter click*
Cheryl Rofer
@mrmoshpotato: This is his Churchillian Very Serious gaze.
Adam L Silverman
The red and yellow Ethernet cables, which do not appear to be connected to any of the computers and/or phones are for the two different classified networks at the secret and top secret/sensitive compartmented information levels. That’s how you know the picture is staged: none of the data connections that would need to be connected to run this op from the situation room, rather than the tank at the Pemtagon and the command bridges at SOCOM and CENTCOM and Ft Bragg, are connected.
mrmoshpotato
@Mai naem mobile: @zhena gogolia: Mind if I join you two?
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: They have secured tablets to run certain functions. On the back of that device, just like the laptops and the phones will be stickers indicating the level of classification the device is cleared to function at.
mrmoshpotato
@Amir Khalid: You’re a ukulele connoisseur too? ?
zhena gogolia
@mrmoshpotato:
There’s room for a few million more.
Aleta
As you already pointed out, about signs that Obama’s people are actively engaged…this also seems visible looking at some of the eyes in the photos. Especially for those seated with Obama, most of their eyes are focused inward, which for some of us is a sign of being engaged with thought or anticipation or concentration (or stress or pain). (Not true for everyone; for ex. the two men on the far right (sitting and standing) in white shirts, are looking outward but also mentally involved.) The awareness of some people in back might be split, especially if they recently came in for both the moment and the photo.)
Some with Obama are a bit slumped in concentration or fatigue, instead of the ‘sit up straight for the photo’ posture of all Trump’s guys. And the obvious contrast in clothing — Trump’s guys all in fresh shirts and upright coats and ties that might have been put on in the last hour for the photo.
What gets me is (what I interpret as) the assumption of this administration: that they *have* to take a photo like the Obama photo. Somehow it reminds me of their reliance on pre-programmed images instead of letting images arise from (have roots in) reality —the 2017 inaugural cake copied directly from an Obama inaugural cake comes to mind as revealing an especially stunted mindset.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Would the man at the far right have papers slopped all over his laptop while the mission was in progress?
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
In the dumpster fire photo there is one connected, at least at the laptop end.
The first one on the left side of the cable alley in the middle of the table. Blow up the pic and you can see it’s plugged in.
Adam L Silverman
@Gelfling 545: GEN Milley is not amused.
debbie
Who is that on the left? He kind of looks like Kevin McCarthy.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Looks that way but not knowing him it’s difficult to tell if this is his serious face or his pissed face. The rear admiral to his left looks like someone forgot to fill or bring him his coffee.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: I think that’s the Chief of Naval Operations. And yes, often you give the principals hard copy of briefing materials so they don’t have to keep looking up at the screen.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: he’s pissed
randy khan
@Mike in NC:
I’m not sure Pence ever actually is thawed out.
Millard Filmore
@Adam L Silverman:
I see a red cable on the laptop, center left, whose thin slice of a hand (and wedding ring) are showing. The perspective makes it look like a right angle connection, but there is a fuzzy reflection on the table top that shows the wire is connected normally.
The second laptop on the right (going away from the camera) MIGHT be connected, as it has a wire close enough and the end of the cable is not visible. The direction of the wire makes it look like it was pushed away as the laptop was maneuvered onto the table.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
He can’t be the CNO, he’s only a rear admiral lower. A one star. The CNO is a 4 star position, same as the Army officer next to him, who is also, not the Army Chief of Staff.
ETA Wonder if those two military officers are the duty staff at the WH and were put into the pics for “authenticity?”
randy khan
@The Golux:
My understanding is that he’s not going to actually show his face, so there may not be any opportunity to boo him. On the other hand, Jose Andres, who is much loved in DC and much hated by Trump, is throwing out the first pitch, and probably will get really big cheers. Trump will have a hard time missing that (if he’s actually watching the game instead of whatever Fox runs on Sunday evenings)
Cheryl Rofer
According to AP, the officer on the right is is Brig. Gen. Marcus Evans, the Pentagon’s deputy director for special operations and counterterrorism..
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Compare the military presence in shitgibbon’s photo and in President Obama’s photo. A one star AF officer in President Obama’s and a one star navy, along with a 4 star army in shitgibbon’s. Do you think shitgibbon would demand another and higher ranking officer than President Obama had in his picture? I do. It’s all about presentation with shitgibbon, not that he’s any good at it, it’s just that is all he’s got. Gold spray paint on toilets, big T’s or Trump!!!! on the sides of the buildings, on which he’s paid to put his name. He has no concept of actual doing or followthrough, just in lying about everything.
lynno
I’m at the point where I no longer believe anything that come out of Trumps mouth. This feels like one of those clown scenes where a bunch of clowns plie out of a tiny car chased by a clown with a gun. Clown shoots gun and flag peels down with Bang written on it. All the clown then fall down.
Aleta
@sukabi: Especially since they stage all their photos, and seem to have arranged the photo time, wouldn’t you think they’d at least allow a cleared* photographer to style and arrange the picture intelligently. It suggests possibilities to the imagination : 1–the photographer was hurried in and made to just follow the order to set up and shoot, while someone else believed they knew better how to make it look. 2–Or maybe ‘someone’ was so impatient that he didn’t want to wait for a finished set-up. 3– Or, afraid of leaks, they used an aide instead of a pro.
*If it was even necessary to locate the photo in a top-security location. Given Trump’s love of sets, I suppose he might have needed the drama of the actual room though.