As the corruption of the Trump administration is exposed, I keep two questions in mind: Why Ukraine? and Why energy? The simple answer is that they are where the money is. The more extended answers will be more interesting.
Natural gas seems to be the current focus in energy, but Michael Flynn had a bizarre plan to partner with the Russians to sell nuclear reactors in the Middle East and continues today in Rick Perry’s dealings with Saudi Arabia.
Information on Ukraine seems to be coming together now, although we almost certainly don’t have the final word. And energy plays a part.
Russia has always wanted buffer areas between its heartland and its neighbors. Ukraine is more than that, though. An origin story of the Russian empire put it in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin played up that story earlier on in his quest to bring Ukraine back into Russian influence. Ukraine was the Soviet Union’s breadbasket, being further south than most of the Russian Republic and thus more effective at growing wheat. Its factories built Soviet missiles.
Ukraine’s proximity to Europe and other markets made it the center of natural gas distribution for the Soviet Union. That centralization also made it easy for Vladimir Putin to cut off natural gas to Ukraine, although the cutoff had the unwelcome side effect of keeping some of Russia’s gas from being sold to Europe. So Russia is building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to bypass Ukraine.
For Ukraine to be a buffer for Russia, it must be a weak state, subservient to Russia. But part of Ukraine’s value to Russia is also what could give it independent strength: its farming and industrial sectors, along with Black Sea ports for trade.
Ukraine was one of the fifteen independent countries to emerge from the Soviet Union. Although it is close to Europe, its path since 1991 has been less successful than that of the Baltic states. That is largely because of corruption in its government.
The Ukrainian people since then have moved against corruption in fits and starts. Viktor Yushchenko became president in 2005 on a reform agenda. During his campaign, he was poisoned, probably by Russia, but survived. His presidency was unsuccessful and followed by that of Viktor Yanukovych, who leaned toward Russia and brought back corruption in a big way.
In February 2014, Yanukovych was run out of office by popular demonstrations and fled to Russia. A few months later, Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula and started a war in the eastern provinces of Ukraine, known collectively as the Donbas.
If Ukraine couldn’t be kept down by corruption, Russia would act more directly.
The next president, Petro Poroschenko, managed the loss of Crimea and the war in the Donbas while introducing anticorruption measures. But Russia’s military actions necessarily slowed down his ability to deal with corruption.
Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president in April of this year. Russia still occupies Crimea, and the war in the Donbas continues. To that has been added an American president who uses military aid as a lever to force Zelensky into a corrupt scheme for his advantage in the American elections. David Ignatius speculates that Poroschenko may have been subjected to this kind of corruption too. Maksym Eristavi, a Ukrainian journalist, points out that this American behavior looks a lot like the bad old Ukrainian behavior.
From the American side, the connections are not clear. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, now in prison, has been rumored to have connections to Ukrainian and Russian organized crime through his father in law, but this has not been proved.
Two middlemen, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, have been working for both Rudy Giuliani and Dmytro Firtash. Firtash is under house arrest in Austria and has been involved with both natural gas companies in Ukraine and Russian organized crime.
Secretary of Energy Rick Perry has urged the Ukrainian government to put a couple of Americans on the board of the state natural gas company.
Paul Manafort, also in prison, worked for Viktor Yanukovych before he worked for Donald Trump. And, like Rudy Giuliani, he charged Trump nothing for his services. Firtash has been connected to Manafort.
Not all these dots are connected yet. It’s possible that people simply saw a weak state with illicit money flowing into it from Russia and decided to take advantage. Or we may learn more as Congressional hearings continue.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner
Mike in DC
I am of the opinion that, removal or no, reelection or no, we should not stop investigating all these loose ends until the whole truth is unearthed.
trollhattan
Thanks Cheryl, good read with lots of juicy details.
Do we know why Russia didn’t get involved to the point of saving Yanukovych in office? I’ve long wondered if the Olympics were the reason Vlad didn’t intervene. “I take Crimea now as amuse bouche.”
Cheryl Rofer
@trollhattan: Could have been the Olympics. Could have been that he saw that firing on the Maidan protesters was a step too far. Could have been that Yanukovych had had enough. We don’t know for sure.
Pete Downunder
Breaking: Beto withdraws from campaign
Mary G
@Cheryl Rofer: Putin has patience.
Frankensteinbeck
Trump’s Razor has proven reliable so far. The American connection will be the Crowd Strike conspiracy theory and whatever reason it is linked to Ukraine. That could well be involved in the Russian angle, for all I know. But the decision making process in the administration will be that Trump has been obsessed with the ‘30,000 deleted emails’ since 2016. He heard they’re in Ukraine. When he had his clowns look into that they found a Biden connection to Ukraine, and being the asshole he is Trump was sure there’s dirt there.
I could see the Russians having fed the conspiracy theory to Trump, granted. They know him well enough to know he’d believe it.
Mary G
@Pete Downunder:
trollhattan
@Pete Downunder:
Interesting. He had his moments and bringing the hammer down on gun-humpers is something for which I will always be grateful. Wonder what his next chapter may be? Texas could sure use a sane governor; suspect most Texans were born since their last one.
Cheryl Rofer
New Beto thread
cmorenc
The kind of corrupt state Ukraine-under-Yanukovych was is what the United States will drift toward if Trump somehow manages to win or steal re-election in 2020, although in Trump’s mind it will be more like Russia under Putin, with Putin as his model for what his presidency morphs into in his second term.
Chris T.
Rudy Colludey is not paying Lev and Igor. Therefore, Lev and Igor are not working for Rudy.
Trump is of course not paying for any of these guys. Trump is not the employer. He’s not the customer either. He’s the product. Meanwhile Trump is being paid by Russia, the Saudis, and so on, which means Trump is working for them.
zhena gogolia
All roads lead to Putin.
Mnemosyne
@trollhattan:
Apparently Hickenlooper will be running for Senate in CO after all. I do hope that many of the dropouts will run for statewide office using their newly heightened profiles.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I am thinking this might be about Wingnut welfare. I got the impression the Republicans were trying to turn Iraq into a Wingnut welfare state for when they were out of office until Iraq blew up in their faces, likely Ukrain is Trump’s version of it. That would also fit Trump’s way of doing things by bribing people. .
trollhattan
@Mnemosyne:
Feel the Loopmentum!
A known quantity there, maybe he can give it a go? Was never going to crack my top-10 as a presidential candidate.
Martin
This is the 2nd act of addressing climate change. If you move to solar/wind/battery, there’s no geopolitical/energy hostage taking, or at least a lot less.
Jay
Which weak state with illicit money flows are you referring to? The USA? Britain? Ukraine?
Ella in New Mexico
Great synopsis, Cheryl.
Something R’s keep saying is that Obama didn’t give Ukraine military aid, only Trump did and I’m not understanding where they’re getting this from–do you know? I’m guessing they’re just reinterpreting some rule or classification to benefit Trump.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Trump decided he is a resident of the state of Florida, what you do want to be that Dumb Ass Donny when he is Impeach/ Voted Out/ Term limits tries to get Florida to succeed?
artem1s
I seem to recall that Ukraine was seriously moving toward joining the EU. Then Crimea, Brexit and the US 2016 election happened. Putin can’t afford to lose the Russian breadbasket as a trading partner anymore than the UK can afford to lose Scotland. Putin has been interfering in Ukrainian elections for a while now trying to keep them close to the old Soviet block. Makes sense that he would take lessons learned from those elections and apply them to interfering in UK and US elections. Last gasps of a dying state and/or the beginnings of the next cold war.
debbie
Does anyone have any insights as to why Trump has threatened to withhold aid to Lebanon?
Cheryl Rofer
@Ella in New Mexico: My first guess as to why Republicans say anything is that they are lying. Or that Fox has told them whatever it is they’re regurgitating.
Cheryl Rofer
@artem1s: Yes. I thought about putting that in the post and decided against it, but it has definitely been a factor in Putin’s calculations.
Cheryl Rofer
@debbie: Sure looks like the same kind of play, doesn’t it?
debbie
@Cheryl Rofer:
Hence my concern. Trump’s doubling down on his lawlessness, which seems…odd, even for him.
Cheryl Rofer
@debbie: I think doubling down is what he does. He does it if he’s not checked, and he does it when he’s worried he’s going to be checked. It’s one of his few ways of coping. But I do wonder what the quo is for Lebanon. Maybe there’s another crazy rightwing fantasy that Hillary’s server is there?
Anonymous At Work
What do you mean *an* origin of Russia starts in Ukraine? There’s others, non-Stalinist ones? Haven’t seen them. Kievan Rus traders bridged the eastern trade routes between the Baltic and the Black Seas. Russian history starts in the Ukraine. The dominant position via politics and conquest drifted to Moscow’s princes but the true heartland was always Ukraine.
And from the “buffer” perspective, Russia re-taking Ukraine would allow it to dominate the western former SSRs and re-establish spat of territory between its “real” territory (Russia and Ukraine) from NATO.
Miss Bianca
@Mnemosyne: Yeah, well, Hick’s getting a lot of shit from his progressive betters for it. Personally, I am glad he entered the race and just wish he had focused on the Senate race from the beginning, but that’s just me.
Cheryl Rofer
@Anonymous At Work: Ugh. I’m not going to dig up all the historical questions about who the “Rus” were and the other unknowns around Kievan Rus. The reality is that the history of that area of the world is poorly known. You have enunciated the story that Putin likes. A lot of other people do, too.
And then there’s the question of to what degree modern Russia reflects that history and how much it reflects the Muscovy-Novgorod conflict or the rule of the Mongols.
Dominate the Baltics? They’re not all that close to Ukraine, and now members of NATO. And what do you mean by dominate? The Baltics border Russia, so Ukraine is hardly needed in that sense.
Ella in New Mexico
@Cheryl Rofer: LOL absolutely. But like all good propaganda and conspiracy tales, they depend on some kernels of truth to sustain, so thought I better find out before my one remaining Out Trumper coworker corners me in the break room with a demand I explain it lolol
J R in WV
@artem1s:
“the beginnings of the next cold war.” So you still think it will be a “Cold” war? I’m thinking it will be radioactive-Hot! One way to fix global warming, nuclear winter!
Aleta
A new CNN story about Parnas, Fruman, Firtash, and DC lawyers diGenova and Toensing (mentions Giuliani and Barr).
debbie
@Cheryl Rofer:
Perhaps Putin is dangling it above Trump like one of those cat feather toys.
Aleta
@Aleta: (same link)
Aleta
@Miss Bianca: If you’re ever up for it, I’d like to hear more / know more about local CO politics.
Cheryl Rofer
@Aleta: The lawyers appear again and again defending the folks with Mob connections. They are definitely part of the story.
Aleta
@Cheryl Rofer: They’re also representing John Solomon, who placed a lot of dirt as stories that Giulianni and Manafort wanted to circulate. I don’t remember why they are representing him. (I don’t understand much, and imagine too much, but I appreciate the simplicity you use here to describe what’s known and confine it.)
John Revolta
How do countries defend against this kind of stuff, anyway? Do they have food tasters, or what?
You wouldn’t think it’d be an issue in this day and age, but with guys like Putin around…………….
Jay
@debbie:
Remember Mohammed Bone Saw’s purge of the Sawdi Royals and Movers and Shakers, their imprisonment, torture and the cash and assets they had to for over for their release and semi freedom?
Remember how Jarvanka gave Mohammed Bone Saw the US Intelligence Communitie’s lists of Dissedents and the Disaffected to make the “job” easy?
At the same time this was going on, Lebanon’s Harriri was “summoned” to Sawdi Arabia, ( where his family lives), disappeared for a week, then returned to Lebanon and resigned his office. The Lebanese Parliament refused to accept his resignation. Mostly Hezboallah, Amal and their allies.
Now Harriri has been forced to resign by anti-corruption protests.
So Dolt 45 is “punishing” Lebanon on behalf of Mohammed Bone Saw, by witholding aid used to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces and fight ISIL and other radical Islamist Terrorist Orgs and weaken the Lebanese Government.
Ladyraxterinok
@Mary G:
Love it!!
Just Chuck
Because that’s what Putin wants. Treason really is the simplest explanation.
Kattails
@debbie: I do not know any self-respecting cats who would welcome the slightest comparison with Trump.
Cheryl, got in late and read through everything, dead thread but thank you for the post. I really should have gotten a 2″ thick loose-leaf notebook with dividers, pockets, multicolored page markers, and an ultra-sized set of highlighters about 3 years ago to keep track of every bloody whacko connection this administration* has generated.