Donald Trump did a rally for his rival yesterday.
Dems SURGE in large suburban counties, Louisiana edition: Edwards won Jefferson Parish (suburbs of NoLa) by 1.2% in 2015, on his way to a large statewide win.
— Taniel (@Taniel) November 17, 2019
Tonight, he won it by 14%.
And turnout surged by 14% since October. Far more than in heavily-conservative areas.
From Politico this morning: "in many respects it is Trump’s reputation on the line, and that is by choice. Trump has injected himself into the governor’s race with unusual vigor."
— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) November 17, 2019
From Louisiana voters tonight? https://t.co/6WxAJCFWlk
David Vitter has to feel a little better about himself tonight.
— The Democrat Machine (@DemocratMachine) November 17, 2019
"I'm not the only Republican who could possibly lose in Louisiana!"
AP calls it.
— Dennis Mersereau (@wxdam) November 17, 2019
It's a wonder Rispone lost when his final big rally featured inspiring messages like @SenJohnKennedy's "it must suck to be that dumb" and @realDonaldTrump's "you gotta give me a big win, please, okay?"
Too bad we're out of races to nationalize before 2020. pic.twitter.com/1fO1cOIK8O
Same story, different state. *Massive* overperformance of baseline in Jefferson Parish (New Orleans suburbs) makes up for losses elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/CHtRdNjo4B
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) November 17, 2019
scav
Feels good.
Kay
90%.
Kay
Donald Trump should reach out to Democratic voters.
Oh, wait, they all hate him now so he can’t.
Butter Emails
The problems with this is it still signifies a concentration of the votes. For statewide races, it’s nice to get that additional turnout, but the cost of those drops in other areas is the loss of seats in the state legislature.
Princess
Maybe we could get Trump to attend more college football games.
Yutsano
Oh man. We need a candidate who is going to turn out these voters. African American women are the backbone of the Democratic party. I am shutting up and listening to them hardcore.I never thought Bel Edwards would pull it off so I kind of ignored this race. And I’m just curious: does North Carolina no longer count as the deep south?
Suzanne
This is so awesome.
I love seeing Trump humiliated.
I don’t just want him to lose next year. I want it to be embarrassing. I want him and all of his shitty family members to be ashamed to show their faces in public. I want them to be synonyms in the language for the human garbage that they are.
Luciamia
Oh my. Hope this doesn’t send Dear Leader back to the hospital.
dmsilev
@Suzanne: Unfortunately, they have no shame.
Redshift
@Yutsano: Just looked it up, and apparently NC has never been party of the Deep South. The Deep South stretches from Louisiana to South Carolina.
Ruckus
@Yutsano:
African American women are the backbone of the Democratic party. I am shutting up and listening to them hardcore.
They’ve seen the effects of conservatism up close and personal. They know.
I hate that we can’t do this for them but it’s their turn to show us the way. And they know the way. I’m proud to be an old white man and follow them to a better life and country.
scav
Really enjoying the thought of all sorts of repubs up for election, in their pjs, checking for results before they head off to sleepyby.
I bet my stiff drink will be the sweeter.
rikyrah
I am in ????
Damn. I didn’t think that he would win.
James E Powell
@Yutsano:
I don’t believe North Carolina was ever considered the Deep South. I thought it was the birthplace of treason, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Maybe Texas is in that group, but I always think Texas is sui generis.
Suzanne
@dmsilev: I think Ivanka will be really ashamed when she can’t get service in restaurants and is disinvited from charity galas. The dumb twins are already considered WT.
mrmoshpotato
OT – SNL’s opening is mocking the hell out of people who wanted more “pizzazz” to the impeachment hearings.
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: They all hate him now? What changed? :)
Patricia Kayden
Adam L Silverman
@Butter Emails: The GOP in Louisiana did not get a supermajority in the state legislature as a result of this election. So while that’s not flipping the state legislature, it’s an improvement. And both that Democratic minority and the Edwards as the governor will be able to prevent the Republicans from gerrymandering the state and congressional redistricting during the next round. Which will, eventually produce more Democratic opportunities.
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano:
Amir Khalid
Will Trump now devise a brilliant* plan to punish Louisiana for defying his orders?
*Maybe there should be quote marks around this word.
SiubhanDuinne
Oh, this is great news! I checked a couple of hours ago, and at the time John Bel Edwards was lagging by 5 or 6 points. Hadn’t checked again; afraid it would be too depressing.
So far, Donny’s weekend is going as well as his week just gone by. I wonder why he really went to Walter Reed today.
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman:
I personally am all about a Landrieu being back in the Senate again. Mitch doesn’t seem to be too busy.
James E Powell
@SiubhanDuinne:
I hope it’s incurable agita.
Butter Emails
@Adam L Silverman:
The GOP didn’t have a Supermajority going into this election. That they were unable to attain that goal is good, that they were able to gain seats is concerning.
SiubhanDuinne
@mrmoshpotato: And what’s especially funny is that it was NBC that was bitching about insufficient pizzazz in the first place!
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano: He’s not going to run as far as I know. He’s just started a non-profit to work on defeating racism.
https://www.nola.com/news/politics/article_4b4ac76a-f6b5-11e9-be69-afeeebd8d803.html
azelie
Breathing a sigh of relief here. I couldn’t imagine actually having Eddie Rispone as governor but I was really worried it would happen. I live in Baton Rouge and we had a few candidates for state senate and representative here who would have been fantastic additions to the legislature and who ran great races in tough districts but lost. But at least JBE pulled off the improbable feat of winning a second term.
Mike in NC
Visited New Orleans 20 years ago to see friends there. Hated the place and vowed to never go back.
Adam L Silverman
Amir Khalid
@SiubhanDuinne:
I tend to doubt that a man of Trump’s years, width, and dietary habits is anywhere near the robust health he makes his doctors claim.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@SiubhanDuinne: Maybe he’s looking for someone to write him a medical excuse note so he can resign for medical reasons. The same doctor who said he’s the healthiest person in the history of mankind can now write an excuse note that says “the strain of working 30 hour days has taken a toll on even this mighty superhero; he wanted to keep working but I advised him, nay pleaded with him with a tear in my eye…”
Matt McIrvin
@James E Powell: I always thought of “Deep South” as meaning the Gulf Coast South, but I guess GA and SC count as well.
Patricia Kayden
Mary G
Wow. I didn’t even check, I decided to watch GBBS reruns and ignore politics, checked in to look at TaMara’s cookie recipe and got this lovely surprise. Good for Louisiana!
Expecting butthurt tweets about voters bussed in to commit fraud in the morning. If not he really is sick, which would be too bad. Not.
Cckids
@Suzanne: Come sit by me. Trump’s utter devastation at a completely humiliating loss would, in some ways, be better than kicking him out through impeachment. At least we wouldn’t get Pence. Ever.
ET
The Republican only got 13,000 votes in New Orleans. That is Sad. Uptown, white New Orleans is conservative and they either didn’t vote or many voted Edward’s. #ETTD
Jefferson Parish is David Duke territory. The Republican shouldn’t have lost it. #ETTD
SiubhanDuinne
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: That occurred to me, too. Admittedly, I hadn’t got around to drafting the doctor’s note (yours is excellent!), but resigning for medical reasons would save face*, render impeachment inquiries moot, and shove Pence down our gagging throats. On the upside, there’s no particular reason for Jarvanka to hang around.
Would still prefer to see the lot of them depart in cuffs, leg irons, and orange jumpsuits.
(Groucho Voice: “Why anyone would want to save that face, I have no idea!”)
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: I wouldn’t mind Senator LaToya Cantrell either. Mayor of New Orleans doesn’t seem to be a bad stepping stone to higher office in Louisiana.
ET
@Yutsano: It is hard for politicians from New Orleans to get traction for governor because the rest of the state hates/resents the city or the power they fear that the city politicians will run all over the rest of the state. Or some such. It tends to be New Orleans v the rest of the state.
smike
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Resigning is probably not an option for him. Even if he were pardoned, his ass is hanging out there like a slow-moving pitch. Hell, his kids might not appreciate him spending all of their money on endless lawyer retainers.
ET
@Yutsano: It is hard for New Orleans politicians to get traction for the governor’s race. It tends to be New Orleans v the rest of the state.
(hopefully this comment won’t get eaten)
Chetan Murthy
ISTR reading that even if he’s pardoned, that cannot extend to his companies, and certainly not to civil liabilities, so the IRS can still go after him for every damn cent. And of course, he can’t stop criming. And he can’t be pardoned for state crimes. Yeah, I agree, he can’t resign unless he gets a global agreement with the Feds and the states both. Gee, I hope Letitia James stays obdurate.
Walker
@James E Powell:
Fun fact. North Carolina originally did not want to secede (my NC ancestors were union supporters). They just felt they were left with no choice sitting between Virginia and SC
David ??Booooooo?? Koch
It’s premature to declare a winner until the press conducts some roadside diner interviews.
mrmoshpotato
@David ??Booooooo?? Koch:
“Hi. Why is the Democrat a big loser poopoohead?”
lgerard
Another fun fact
In the 1960’s, half of the Klu Klux Klan members were residents of North Carolina
West of the Rockies
Waiter approaching Donald Trump: “And another shit burger for the gentleman… That’s, what, half a dozen this week?”
Barbecue Swinger
@ET: That Edwards won Jefferson Parish astounds me and gives me hope. (Says a former New Orleanian.)
rikyrah
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) Tweeted:Have to give credit to Edwards/Dems’ runoff turnout operation, particularly w/ African-American voters. Compared to the primary, turnout was up…
29% in New Orleans26% in Shreveport14% in Baton Rouge (w/ 6 precincts still out)
And just 9% everywhere else. #LAGOV https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195924841913896960?s=20
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike in NC: Did you ever go more than two blocks from Bourbon St?
lgerard
@James E Powell:
Let’s not forget Florida, a slave state later infamous for lynching and Klan activity
David ??Booooooo?? Koch
S H O C K P O L L
Iowa — Ann Selzer (Gold Standard) – Nov 13 (link)
Pete………..25%
Warren……16%
Biden………15%
Wilmer…….15%
Amy………….6%
Kamala……..3%
Pete breaks open Iowa race with a near double digit lead, while Warren’s momentum stalls out with 79 days left to the fist voting.
Jay
West of the Rockies
@Yutsano:
I would LOVE to see Kamala Harris regain momentum. Why she does not have more support among Democratic voters (of all colors), I do not know.
TS (the original)
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
“the strain of working 30 hour
days has taken a toll on even this mighty superhero; he wanted to keep working but I advised him, nay pleaded with him with a tear in my eye…”Minor correction
smike
@Chetan Murthy:
Yep. And good luck with New York on that global agreement.
ETtry-and-get-the-block-quote-right.
Suzanne
@Cckids:
Trump’s utter devastation at a completely humiliating loss would, in some ways, be better than kicking him out through impeachment.
i might agree with you. I mean, I want Barron and Tiffany to have to change their names due to the utter shame. The rest of them…. I want them to be utter untouchables. Maybe they can show their faces in the diners where Tom Friedman goes to encounter strange and unfamiliar sub-species of humans in their native habitats.
PsiFighter37
@West of the Rockies: It’s pretty baked in that I don’t think anyone is inspired by her or believes she has core values. The waffling on health care – back and forth multiple times – killed her.
If she makes it into the executive branch, it’ll be as AG. But she ain’t going to be president, and at this rate I don’t think she’ll make it as the VP either.
Jay
Chetan Murthy
Gotta admit: even though I like Sen. Harris, for sure SPW has this attribute locked-up. Ain’t no doubt what SPW believes in. No doubt at all.
Jay
Weirdness is happening,……
Jay
TS (the original)
@West of the Rockies: Zero positive media coverage. Pete has had it all for the past month in wapo. Sen Warren has had only negative press & Wilmer hardly a mention.
Also seems that white male with few policies beats all women & Wilmer. Biden may be down because of Ukraine issues.
West of the Rockies
@Chetan Murthy: It’s late and I’m sleepy, so brain not working. Who is SPW?
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@West of the Rockies:
Senator Professor Warren. Charlie Pierce created it.
Jay
West of the Rockies
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Thanks, G.
smike
@TS (the original):
That could be true. He is keeping his powder dry on this issue for now, and, to me, that seems wise. Lots of snowflakes on the path ahead for him on that issue right now. Slippery, it is…
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@West of the Rockies:
Don’t mention it
Jay
Jay
BlueDWarrior
@azelie: wow someone else from BR. And yeah, at the start of the night I went from being glad Southern and LSU won/were leading to dreading Idiot Republican Governor III: The Idioting.
Glad to see Edwards pull it out in the end. Now we see what the Republican legislature is going to do in the next session.
Geoduck
@Walker: Also, West Virginia only exists because that chunk of former Virginia stayed loyal to the Union.
hermercy
@azelie: Shreveport/Bossier here, close to the Century link auditorium where Trump had his rally. After watching hundreds of not thousands in MAGA hatted zombies streaming across the fields to the rally and the 12 or so protesters attending, I figured we were lost. NO, Baton Rouge, and Shreveport pulled us through, though. A good night.
(((CassandraLeo)))
@Geoduck: And yet it’s West Virginia – our esteemed blog host notwithstanding – which is now the much more reactionary of the two Virginias. Go figure.
@Adam L Silverman: For those who don’t speak Southern, by the way, I believe you could roughly translate the phrase “Bless your heart” to mean “Fuck you”. Paraphrasing, of course.
One detail of the Louisiana governor’s race that warms my heart is that the Republican candidate spent some $14 million of his own money on the race. You hate to see it.
Congrats to Edwards on winning re-election. Not the biggest fan because of the abortion laws, but a Republican still would’ve been worse in every other conceivable manner, so Louisiana still dodged a massive bullet here.
low-tech cyclist
@Butter Emails:The problems with this is it still signifies a concentration of the votes. For statewide races, it’s nice to get that additional turnout, but the cost of those drops in other areas is the loss of seats in the state legislature.
low-tech cyclist
Hey Pete, it’s your turn in the barrel now. Enjoy!
azelie
@BlueDWarrior: I’ve been wondering which of two things that seem impossible things were going to happen: 1) A Democrat (even if barely a Democrat) gets elected to a second term as governor in Louisiana, or 2) we have to live with a Trumpoid governor who really has no clue how government works (which really means he’d just be doing what Lane Grigsby tells him to do). It would mean years of tax cuts, deficits, hundreds of thousands of people losing their healthcare and the possible destruction of public education in the state. Not to mention more gerrymandering.
Now I just have to try to appreciate the fact that we have a check on Republican power in the state for the next four years and not worry about what happens after Edwards’s term.
azelie
@Butter Emails: Part of the gain is because there were some places where white conservative Democrats that had been able to win were either term limited or lost their seats when the electorate decided they’d rather just go ahead and support the Republican instead of the almost-Republican.
OGLiberal
The Jeff Parish swing is huge. That’s where the white New Orleanians live. 14% is beyond landslide.
That said, a huge chunk of the white folks in Louisiana are irredeemably racist. It’s almost genetic. My wife was one until she got out after college. (White collar family, with a dad who was raised a Dem, albeit “Southern”) Her best friend from childhood, who did not get out and still lives on the West Bank? Not so much. (and her teen kid is following suit)
Richard Guhl
@Princess: A 40,000 vote margin is far from razor thin.
HinTN
@Barbecue Swinger:
As we would know from your nym!
jonas
So far Paschale’s strategy for Trump’s 2020 reelection is to fire up the deplorables 24/7. The problem is, as we see here and in Kentucky, is that the rabid rubes who partially fill local auditoriums for Trump rallies aren’t going to be enough to pull him over the finish line this time around, especially if Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote against him. Everything he does that excites his base increases turnout on the other side even more.
Miss Bianca
@Jay: Wonder if this will knock any wind out of Pete’s sails. Christ, I hope so. Sorry, but the more I see and hear of him, the more my teeth grind together.
The fact that I spent three of the longest, most miserable months of my life working at McKinsey in Chicago has *nothing* to do with my position, I’m sure.
CatFacts
I have friends who are in education in Louisiana, and they are so, so relieved.
CapnMubbers
Oh woe is me. Alas, alack, I still have to type my nym and email EVERY TIME. So far.
CapnMubbers
@CapnMubbers: And as soon as I posted that, nym and email showed up below comment box. Hah.
catclub
And yet the people who have been expecting him (for the last 4 years)
to drop dead any moment continue to be surprised at his robustness.