Stocks are getting hammered today in part because the idiot POTUS, who understands economics even less than I do, said maybe there will be no trade deal with China until after the 2020 election. Trump has lied several times about progress in talks with China, causing markets to soar temporarily every time he tells a big fat whopper.
He implied an agreement was all but a done deal a couple of months ago, which caused the Charlie Brown traders to go nuts. As usual, the Chinese delegates proved the more reliable narrators, throwing cold water on those expectations, but not until after Trump made maximum hay of stock market gains.
In light of these developments today, CNBC Washington correspondent Eamon Javers revealed a bizarre conversation he had with Kellyanne Conway yesterday:
Given Trump’s new comment that he may want to wait until after ‘20 for a China trade deal, here’s an exchange I had with Kellyanne Conway at the WH yesterday. I asked her if the president was wrong to announce the trade deal in October, before it was actually done.
Conway said: “No.”
I said: “Now here we are in December and we don’t have a deal.”
KC: “why do you think we don’t have a deal? Because you haven’t seen it?”
EJ: “Is there a deal we haven’t seen?”
KC: “Are you saying the president lied that we don’t have a phase one deal?”
EJ: “We haven’t seen the deal.”
KC “So?”
EJ: “Well that’s significant.”
KC: “So you’re saying was the president wrong to say there was a deal and there isn’t a deal. Is there a deal or not?”
EJ: “Did he put himself in a bad negotiating position by announcing there was all but a deal?”
KC: “No, of course not.”
EJ: “Did he put himself in a position where the Chinese could embarrass him?”
KC: “The Chinese have not embarrassed President Trump, that’s for sure.”
Conway is a lying ass-weevil. Generally, my opinion is that the straight news networks shouldn’t give her air time because she actively makes viewers dumber. But this exchange with Javers is revealing, in a sense. Conway’s prickly evasions strongly suggest what most of us here have suspected all along: there is no strategy, at least not on the US side, to manage trade relations with China, at least not in a way that advances US interests (as opposed to Trump’s personal interests).
Probably the only thing that’s saving Trump’s ass right now is that the Chinese want an idiot in charge of American trade policy. I would, if I were them. I’d want someone stupid and needy like Trump, someone easily manipulated so I could run circles around him and improve my country’s bilateral bargaining position while expanding its global influence.
The Chinese want access to our markets, and the trade war is undoubtedly hurting them. But they don’t have to worry about elections, so they can wait Trump out. I don’t know what their strategy is. But the Charlie Brown traders should figure out which Lucy is really holding the football. It sure as hell ain’t Trump.
Baud
What EJ should have said.
Elizabelle
@Baud: I am just so tired of living in a “The Emperor Has No Clothes” world.
I don’t see how we can go through another year of this.
trollhattan
IMHO Trump, with signing the Hong Kong tut-tut document, spiked any chances he had of the Chinese rescuing his ass with a trade deal.
I know people like Kellyanne. They all belong in a border cage, where they can go all “Animal Farm” until just one survives. Then we launch her (it’s going to be Conway or Coulter) into the sun.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: I used to think maybe we’d get to a point where White House correspondents would show open contempt for people who lie in their faces daily, but now I’m convinced that will never happen.
Maybe if Conway said, “Here’s the deal right here, Mr. Smartypants! Whaddyou say now, huh, huh?!” while waving an imaginary piece of paper? Probably not even then…
FelonyGovt
Thank you. I’ve often wondered why the market is so gullible as to take anything Trump says about China trade at face value. He lies like he breathes. He also has absolutely no clue how any of this works.
Cacti
Any time any version of the above question is asked, the answer should always be:
“Yes. I’m saying the president lied.”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@trollhattan:
What do you have against the Sun?
WereBear
We recently had our 401ks switched and we each got an interview about our “goals.” I said I had put everything in a money market or bonds before “the orange fart cloud” could ruin it.
They fidgeted uncomfortably, mouthed platitudes, said they were following “good investment practices” … and here we are.
JPL
Twitter tells me that trump was upset because McCron disrespected NATO. pot meet kettle
lollipopguild
@FelonyGovt: Remember trump’s “secret’ plan to destroy ISIS in 30 days? Trump’s cult always goes along with him because they do not really care if he has a plan or not.They want him to hurt all of those people who need to be hurt, they do not care about anything else.
Gravenstone
He can do that all by himself. He doesn’t need any help!
jonas
I don’t think on Wall Street anyone actually *believes* Trump when he says there’s a trade deal just around the corner, but what they seem to think is “what if this one time, he’s actually right — I don’t want to be left behind, so buy, buy, buy.” Buy on the hype, sell on the reality. See also Musk, Elon.
Gravenstone
@WereBear: Yup, I’ve had mine parked in bonds for a while now to try and weather the market instability he causes. I keep getting notices from my provider that my options are “too conservative” but damn if I’m not seeing a slow but steady gain in spite of them.
The Dangerman
@trollhattan:
I’m betting the farm I don’t have on Coulter in that matchup. Conway will fight for something like a rabid dog as long as she knows the check has cleared, but Coulter has bought her own shit to the point she’s a true believer now. She may be reduced to barking like a mad dog in a homeless shelter someday, but she’s a believer.
Aleta
@Baud: During your presidency I hope you’ll also be the WH press corps.
piratedan
for me the most tiresome part of all of this is the way that the media continues to portray this string of crimes as if there’s any doubt about what happened…
the President admitted it
his Chief of staff admitted it
the transcripts indicate it happened
the intelligence services stated that it happened
multiple corroborating witnesses attested to its accuracy
and yet, some of these fuckers still play this off as if there’s some doubt. Citing GOP politicians, who many of whom, if someone bothered to look with any amount of credulity, would wonder how complicit they are in the wide schema of things for their ability to not believe or process what has been presented. Presenting these spurious remarks in “good faith”.
I’m tempted to “secure” these stenographers in some wire cages and ask them to describe their surroundings waiting for anyone to mention the word freedom in their scribblings…
RedDirtGirl
Imagine my fright on Sunday afternoon as I was hosting a jam at my favorite bar in Brooklyn. A dead ringer for Kelly Anne came in. I only knew it wasn’t her because she wasn’t skeletal. But, shit, I was ready to throw down.
Betty Cracker
@JPL: Could be Macron is just manipulating Trump into reversing his anti-NATO posture. It’s laughably simple to do. Anyone who’s dealt with a three-year-old for more than half an hour is more than qualified to “negotiate” with Trump.
trollhattan
@The Dangerman:
For a long time I though public Coulter was performance art, but after learning she was part of the Federalist cult back in college, hobnobbing with lots of future wheels, I realize it’s more or less baked in. To your point though, the radicalism has taken hold organically and she’s truly gone around the bend.
Interestingly, Limbaugh’s schtick seems at least in part to have been crafted for audience generation, and he adopted his material as fact once he began being taken seriously by powerful people. A friend who worked in the studio when he was here in town says his on- and off-air personas were distinctly different.
chopper
@FelonyGovt:
and you’d think they’d have figured that out by now.
JR
The daily fluctuations in the stock market have been pretty minor, even though the numbers have been huge. However, the long term growth trend is unsustainable. We are not in the dot.com stratosphere yet but there is a lot of irrational exuberance (to use Robert Shiller’s term) in the markets.
lgerard
Speaking of markets, I am hoping that this story
trump Chaos trades
doesn’t disappear into the memory hole the way the “Wilbur Ross stole our money” story did.
Brachiator
I preferred the “Who’s On First” routine when Abbot and Costello did it.
The tariffs currently in place are having an impact, despite a fairly good economy. Still, I am surprised that Trump continues to be stupidly stubborn.
BTW: the outcome of the UK elections should be interesting. Look for Trump to emit major puffery should Boris Johnson win.
patrick II
@JPL:
Trump was upset because Macron said that NATO is becoming brain-dead. Trump sees himself as the leader of NATO. He took it personally, as he should have. It was the only thing Trump got right.
patrick II
@trollhattan:
Early in his career, Limbaugh acknowledged (I think to Ted Koppel on his nightly show) that he was just an entertainer. Rush quickly changed his tune when right-wingers howled in outrage — noooo! You are a really serious conservative commentator!
O.K. then, that’s what I am.
catclub
This, (or on anything else) and in this case, if Trump KNEW there will be a deal, he would say this now, to lower the markets, so they will jump higher when an agreement is announced.
Anyone who trades on ANYTHING that Trump says is failing.
Edmund Dantes
someone will continue to make serious bank on Trump late night phone calls.
And it’ll never be investigated.
Betty Cracker
Huge news if true:
catclub
@WereBear: a la Pascal’s wager: If the economy (due to Trump, or otherwise) really falls apart, then whatever money you thought you had in the bank will be gone anyway. But if the economy actually survives… might as well invest in things that will do well.
guachi
Guess all those Harris obituaries were correct, then.
Personally, I think a candidate who is dropping out should do it in a debate and spend the debate ripping Trump and then take the last question and announce he/she is dropping out and endorse someone.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I mean, I guess. But like Putin, that’s a risky strategy. Trump’s also in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. I think it’s fucking stupid and they’re playing god with all of our lives. The world is being run by mad men and neither Xi, Putin, or Trump should be in power. They’re threats to civilization
catclub
@lgerard: I am pretty sure that article has been debunked.
Brachiator
Damn.
Mary G
@Betty Cracker: No. Please no.
Steve in the ATL
@JPL:
Ah yes—the Irish premier!
Martin
I think there’s some misunderstanding here on how markets typically work. For many traders, the thing you want more than anything is uncertainty. A guy like Trump can make you rich. If I were in a position to be more ambitious with my investing I’d be running straddles on any companies with large trade exposures. Straddles make you money whether the stock goes up or down – just so long as its a lot. I wouldn’t care which way the stock goes, I can make money on the put or call side. In the best scenario, I make money both ways, a runup take profits, and then a crash, take profits a 2nd time. That’s shitty for a retirement fund, but it’s great for a hedge fund.
Another aspect of this is that the market isn’t a measuring machine, it’s a weighing machine. And that extends beyond the stock market. You have to put your money somewhere. Corporate bonds are about as risky as the stock because they’re subject to largely the same dynamics. That new factory might be a bust because Trump closed off the market the factory was designed to serve. Munis don’t look great for a nation that is obsessed with not collecting tax revenue, and borrowing isn’t really happening because nobody has any ambition with respect to growth. And none of this is benefitted by the fact that the country is building nothing at all. No infrastructure, no new industry to speak of, nothing. Real estate is being rocked by the same forces. So, it’s not like there are a lot of great alternatives to US stocks. Internationally, the same problems exist – strongmen across the globe are destabilizing trade and markets.
Gin & Tonic
@Mary G: But hey, we still have a plethora of septuagenarian white dudes to choose from.
burnspbesq
Great. Union and public employee pensions, your and my 401(k) and IRA, all getting fucked over by Trump.
yay.
burnspbesq
Well, shit.
Warren it is, then.
Ksmiami
@WereBear: I actually think it would be ok if market got hit a bit because it would kick out the final moderate Trump supporters who are using the economy as an excuse
burnspbesq
Trump actually has a legitimate reason to be pissed at Macron—the French digital-services tax. But he will sure as shit do something massively fucking stupid in response.
HalfAssedHomesteader
I think I’ve spotted Javers’ mistake.
Xavier
@WereBear: ” Here we are.” You and Warren Buffett.
Cameron
Some of these “Charlie Browns” have got it all figured out…
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/the-mystery-of-the-trump-chaos-trades
Enhanced Voting Techniques
True, it was Trump who made an ass of himself, not the Chines.
they all still sound like some stoned out of their mind.
HalfAssedHomesteader
@jonas: I think many of them know he’s spouting shit but also know there’s enough gullibles out there to make a chunk of change in the short run. It’s a guessing game of musical chairs. And this is what passes for “investment” on Wall Street these days.
JDM
@HalfAssedHomesteader:
No, I think the squirrel-chasing on Wall Street is what it’s always been (at least since the rise, around Reagan-era, of major money going to traders): chasing short-term gains because that’s how you get your bonus.
Wjs
The same media entities that can’t tell anyone why Trump went to the hospital one Saturday morning unannounced is supposed to get to the bottom of US trade policy?
Twenty years from now, I hope we will know the full story of how Trump was propped up by his failsons and faildaughter and allowed to serve as president despite proof of his dementia and addiction to Adderall.
Death Panel Truck
Which is why Putin put him in the White House.
catclub
@Cameron: debunked:
HalfAssedHomesteader
@JDM: Yeah, I was using a pretty broad “these days”. I’m old enough that I can do that. :-)
sukabi
Someone needs to be tracking the trading activity of the president and his minions…bet there is a bunch of short selling and insider trading in their portfolios.
Carol
@Baud: ^^^^This^^^^
Carol
If Kellyann hadn’t existed, trump would have had to invent her.
gratuitous
Kellyanne sounds like that dream girl everyone knows: “Gee, that outfit looks nice.” Normal woman: “Thank you.” Kellyanne: “What? You’re saying I usually look like a slob?!” <Transforms into screeching harpy and rips the flesh from your bones.>
Did I say “dream”? I meant the other one.
jl
As Krugman noted a few days ago, after falling off the radar, economic slowdown and possibly recession soon is looking more likely. Investment is in the dumps because of Trumps incoherent trade wars that drag on an on. GOP rich man’s tax cut looks like it actually hurt investment.
Atlanta Fed’s ‘nowcast’ of GOP, which functions as a short run forecast has been estimating current GOP growth between 0.5 and 1 percent.
Also, the Chinese patience with Trumps goofy trade war might be due to fact that the pain of adjusting to it may only be shorter term. China needs to kick the habit of juicing its growth by selling the US cheap stuff, and junk to fill up Walmart shelves. That line of business has led to manufacturing price hell for them, competing with lower wage exporters to get the business. China should get more money into the hands of lower and middle income people (ha ha, like the US) and get more domestic economic activity going. Several of the economists who advised China on economic development 20 years ago have been saying that, including Stiglitz, and some Chinese economists have too, though they need to say it discretely. Anyway, Trump trade war may be prompting China to do what it needs to do over the long term anyway.
Xavier
@jl: China’s production of cheap junk to sell to Walmart is just following the path taken by Japan and Korea to jumpstart their manufacturing sector. China will grow out of it too.
Tehanu
The late Phil Austin met Limbaugh once and was astonished to find that he was a rabid Firesign Theatre fan. He didn’t return the compliment.