Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Everybody saw this coming.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Eh, that’s media spin. biden’s health is fine and he’s doing a good job.

We still have time to mess this up!

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

Infrastructure week. at last.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

T R E 4 5 O N

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

I did not have telepathic declassification on my 2022 bingo card.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Presidents are not kings, and Plaintiff is not President.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / People Like Us

People Like Us

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I don’t know who said it recently, but someone mentioned that Democrats might do better worrying about how their candidate is going to appeal to black voters in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee. To me, that makes as much or more sense as trying to figure out how to turn fickle Obama/Trump voters back to a Democratic candidate. Fundamentally, though, it’s hard for people who follow politics closely, and who care deeply about the outcome of the election, to determine how to motivate the occasional voter.

In addition to not understanding the behavior of the occasional voter, I also don’t understand the behavior of the calculating voter – the one who, for example, likes Warren or Booker, but thinks that their most admired candidate is too liberal or too whatever to appeal to the occasional voter. The history of politics is full of winners who seemed unlikely at this point in the race (the current President being one, Obama being another).

Since voting nature is essentially unfathomable, isn’t the best approach just to support the candidate that appeals to you? At least you’ll be genuinely excited to support that candidate, which is a major part of motivating others.

Reader Interactions

257Comments

  1. 1.

    Betty Cracker

    Yeah, swing voter prognostication can be an entertaining parlor game, but it’s ultimately pointless. I think they zig and zag more or less at random, driven by idiotic factors like “understands people like me” and “I’d like to have a beer with,” etc. It’s like American Idol, but with nukes instead of recording contracts.

  2. 2.

    Baud

    It’s always a balance. If voters didn’t care about electibility of candidates, you’d have a even bigger field of candidates targeting every niche group of voters.

  3. 3.

    SFAW

    Vote for a candidate whose policies match most closely with what I/we want? WTF? Are you nuts?

    I’m going to vote for someone who will — as once proposed by the foremost political mind of this generation, and perhaps the last five — “heighten the contradictions.” Then there will be no doubt as to the purity of my essence ethos. Or something.

  4. 4.

    Omnes Omnibus

    I don’t know who said it recently, but someone mentioned that Democrats might do better worrying about how their candidate is going to appeal to black voters in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee.

    I am not worried about that. If the black voters in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee are able to vote, we will be fine. That is the concern.

  5. 5.

    SFAW

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    If the black voters in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee are able to vote, we will be fine. That is the concern.

    Exactly. [Although I’d expand it to include a number of other areas, but whether few or many areas, it’s the key issue.]

  6. 6.

    PhoenixRising

    You may be surprised to learn that your first two sentences have been the main value I have delivered to the congressional campaign I’m working for. (So far, anyway.)

    The notion that rather than chasing white voters in the pivot counties, we need to go find voters who otherwise won’t bother, seems obvious to me. It’s shifting the behavior of humans who aren’t already with us vs fighting the ids of humans who are being told daily why they should remain against us.

    Easier to re-route a stream with a few rocks than build a dam & reverse its flow, right?

  7. 7.

    ant

    how their candidate is going to appeal to black voters in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee

    Whelp, they didn’t turn out in high enough numbers for Hillary.

    And it wasn’t just black folks either.

    I’m really cynical these days. People just don’t think about anything outside of their immediate day to day lives.

    We’re doomed as a species.

  8. 8.

    Chyron HR

    Democrats might do better worrying about how their candidate is going to appeal to black voters in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee.

    What, like lying about being a civil rights leader and telling your supporters to harass John Lewis on Twitter?

  9. 9.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @PhoenixRising: Not quite.  As I suggested above, the first thing is to fix things for people who already want to vote for our candidates but can’t.  It’s the right thing to do and it helps us.

  10. 10.

    schrodingers_cat

    Our town D party did a voter registration drive early fall this year. Our success rate was close to zero. Many people who are not registered don’t want to be registered. I am in a deep blue part of the Commonwealth with 70% of the eligible voters already registered. Also MA makes it pretty easy to register, you can even do it online

    ETA: Me and my partner registered 2 voters after knocking on close to 30 doors. It felt like an exercise in futility. So people who want the Ds to target the unregistered voters, we are already doing that and it is not easy.

  11. 11.

    Angela (@Toocananj)

    Delurking here to say that I think it is really important for white people this election to pay attention to what marginalized groups are saying and to take a really serious open look at who they are supporting. Especially black women, who are the backbone of the Democratic base and they need to be heard and preferenced. In these times, groups that have always lived in a hostile environment in the US have a lot to teach white folks, and we need to listen.

  12. 12.

    Frankensteinbeck

    I am confident of this:  When it becomes clear whether Biden or Warren is the nominee, all squabbling among Democrats* will disappear like it never was, and we will unite like a fortress wall against Trump.  As they did in 2017, 2018, and 2019, media narratives that Democrats are divided and unmotivated will prove to be dust.

     

    *I am deliberately not including the Professional Left, who have no intention of voting Democrat no matter who is nominated.

  13. 13.

    Jeff

    On a positive note in Philly. In 2016 there were 770,000 registered Democrat. 550,000 turned out and voted. As of November 2018 there are 810,000 registered Democrats. Donald won PA by 49,000 votes. If Philadelphia turns out he’s toast. As for black voters. My local polling station is in a mostly white area of the city. The election this past November every one working the polls was a black woman. I think black women in Philadelphia are motivated to deny Donald a second term.

  15. 15.

    Hildebrand

    Chalk me up as another more concerned about folks actually getting to vote.  Too many people in my congregation in Detroit have stories about magically changing closing times, or being in line at closing and being told they can’t vote, or having someone announce that the election has been called while still standing in line (I’ve heard that one a lot about the 2016 election).   This is why I applaud Stacey Abrams and Eric Holder for working on voting rights and access issues – they are doing spectacularly important work.

  16. 16.

    tobie

    Voting for the candidate you think other people will vote for is never a good strategy. How can you judge other people’s preferences? That said, we don’t live in normal times and the fear that Trump could get reelected is great. 4 more years of Trump and democracy in the US is dead. That’s a heavy burden to bear.

  18. 18.

    ant

    There was that post yesterday over on LGM:

    In 1844, members of a small expedition found two of the birds on an Icelandic island, strangled them and crushed their only egg. That was the last confirmed sighting. In this way, the great auk went extinct.

    In the comments someone pointed out that humans have been doing this for thousands and thousands of years. Everywhere we go, death and destruction follows in our wake.

    I suppose there are rays of hope. Like for example how the American Indians incorporated into their culture to value all living creatures.

    But try to get anyone you know to talk or think about this, and you’ll get blank stares in return. American Indian culture persisted for ten thousand years. But surely our modern way of life has nothing to learn from it.

    Nobody thinks about anything that matters.

  19. 19.

    tobie

    @schrodingers_cat: Good for you for getting out there and registering voters — final count be damned! I did this last summer with my local Democratic Party and had zero success standing at the supermarket but kind of amazing success when we went to a housing project. We were actually at the project to talk to registered voters about local races but kept on running into people who weren’t registered and were delighted to do so when given the opportunity. Go figure.

  20. 20.

    Betty Cracker

    @schrodingers_cat: That’s actually not a bad percentage. I’ve never done door-knock registration. I’ve done booths at events and stood around with a clipboard outside of libraries, CostCo, etc., and asked passersby to register. If one in 15 say yes, I’d consider it a good day.

    PS: Thank you for registering voters! So important!

  21. 21.

    SFAW

    @ant:

    Whelp, they didn’t turn out in high enough numbers for Hillary.

    Hmm, I wonder if voter-suppression efforts in WI, MI, PA, et al. had anything to do with it.

    When the government makes it nigh-on impossible to register, that seems to affect turnout.

     

    Ari Berman did some great work in 2016, investigating the voter/registration suppression efforts in Wisconsin. It’s pretty likely the disenfranchised voters would have given the state to Hillary, had they been allowed to vote.

  22. 22.

    ant

    American farmers will be watering their fields with Gatorade before we’re done with Trump.

     

    Blathering on about “electrolytes“.

  25. 25.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Betty Cracker: You are welcome. We actually got shooed away by one misanthrope. Also found 2 women one in her 90s and one in her 50s both naturalized citizens who did not want to register because they did not want to have anything to do with the government. (One was from Russia and the other one was also from behind the Iron Curtain.)

  26. 26.

    catclub

    @SFAW: When the government makes it nigh-on impossible to register, that seems to affect turnout.

     

    I think the bar for what makes registration and voting ‘nigh on impossible’ is pretty low. All you have to do is make it slightly difficult, and anyone who is not highly motivated skips it.

  28. 28.

    ant

    @SFAW: It should have been painstakingly obvious to ALL voters that Trump wasn’t cut out for the job.

    All you had to do was look at his hair: You know damn well whoever moved his hair plugs around told him it was a bad idea, and that it wouldn’t look right. But Trump was unable to take the advice from an expert. That’s basically all a president does.

     

    But yet, people voted for him.

     

    We’re doomed.

  29. 29.

    hells littlest angel

    @Frankensteinbeck: I believe that, too. There are fools among registered Democrats, but not a lot of them.

     

    Disclaimer: I confidently predicted that Clinton would win in 2016 by 30 points. I’m still smarting from that.

  30. 30.

    Belafon

    I pretty much just vote for who I want to in the primary (though I have to pick a new one since my favorite ran out of money recently), and support the candidate I like best in the general election, which will be a Democrat.

  32. 32.

    cmorenc

    @Betty Cracker:

    Yeah, swing voter prognostication can be an entertaining parlor game, but it’s ultimately pointless. I think they zig and zag more or less at random, driven by idiotic factors like “understands people like me” and “I’d like to have a beer with,” etc. It’s like American Idol, but with nukes instead of recording contracts.

    The common factor among the portion of the electorate you describe above is: they base their true choice on emotional reaction, and then selectively seek out facts or reasons to rationalize their emotional choice.  That’s also why it’s so difficult to persuade these people with sound factual and rational arguments – they resist accepting facts that contradict their emotional inclinations, while being readily permeable to factors that reinforce their preexisting emotional inclinations..  This emotional-based decision-making includes not just who to vote for, but whether to bother to turn out at all (e.g. “they’re all corrupt, why bother”).

  33. 33.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @ant: Au contraire, they think about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    all the time. What else matters?

  34. 34.

    catclub

    Since voting nature is essentially unfathomable,

     

    Is it, really? I could imagine difficult to pin down, or deeply subject to human whims and biases, but not impossible to understand.

  35. 35.

    Zzyzx

    As one of the calculators, it comes from understanding that I am probably in the 95th-99th percentile for leftism in the American population. 50 years of experience has shown that what I feel to be obvious arguments are less clear to the rest of the country.

    There are times when I feel like optimism is the right call, that we can and do better as a country. Right now I just want to survive the next 4 years without having Trump declare me to be an Israeli citizen or something. I’m in the mindset of that this needs to stop and once that happens we can figure out what’s next.

  36. 36.

    James E Powell

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I am not worried about that. If the black voters in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee are able to vote, we will be fine. That is the concern.

    I’m curious what efforts are being made to ensure that people can vote. Are state and county Democratic organizations working on this everywhere?

  37. 37.

    SFAW

    @catclub: 

    Wisconsin went well beyond minor roadblocks. I expect PA and MI did as well. Surprisingly, all three states had Rethugs controlling the process/rules. Who’d’a thunk?

  39. 39.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Angela (@Toocananj):

    Delurking here to say that I think it is really important for white people this election to pay attention to what marginalized groups are saying and to take a really serious open look at who they are supporting. Especially black women, who are the backbone of the Democratic base and they need to be heard and preferenced.

    Joe Biden it is!

  40. 40.

    catclub

    @hells littlest angel: I confidently predicted that Clinton would win in 2016 by 30 points. I’m still smarting from that.

     

    Yeah, my line on the day after was “Our fellow citizens elected Trump”.  It is like when they ask you to consider how stupid the average USian is… and then remember that half the population is stupider than THAT.

     

    OTOH, didn’t California reject Trump by about 30%?

    And isn’t California always leading the way in US trends?

  41. 41.

    guachi

    If I were polled, I’d tell the pollster I supported whomever my favorite primary candidate was. When it came time to vote I’d vote for my favorite candidate that had a chance to meet the 15% threshold for getting delegates. But that’s just because of the way the primary is done.

    And for everyone who says “listen to black voters” I guess that means we are not allowed to criticize Biden if he’s the nominee because if he does win it’ll be because of heavy support from black voters. I eagerly await all of you attacking Betty Cracker, for example, for saying she’s not fond of Biden as a nominee.

  42. 42.

    hells littlest angel

    @cmorenc:The common factor among the portion of the electorate you describe above is: they base their true choice on emotional reaction, and then selectively seek out facts or reasons to rationalize their emotional choice.

    Sadly, that’s how the great majority of people make their choices about everything.

  43. 43.

    Major Major Major Major

    I largely agree, MM, though it also makes sense to consider how to best convert/GOTV among those various groups once you have a nominee and are deciding how to market them in various places.

    I’ve always voted for the person who I thought would make the best president. ‘Messaging’ votes are weird.

  45. 45.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @James E Powell:
    My county and state Democratic organizations are. By the way, most county Democratic organizations are entirely volunteer run, so volunteering is the best way to make sure they’re doing what you think they should be doing.

    P.S. We (the County party) don’t get funding from the DNC or state parties either, so financial support helps too.

  46. 46.

    SFAW

    @catclub:

    OTOH, didn’t California reject Trump by about 30%?

    Fake news!!! If you take away all the fraudulent CA votes by fraudulent CA voters who votered fraudulently in CA, then Hillary would have lost by something like 127 percent in CA alone, and by 241 percent nationwide.

  48. 48.

    Original Lee

    It’s not just getting turnout up, it’s also making sure that the vote hasn’t been hijacked. I heard lots of stories about voter blockage in Georgia (registration applications not being processed) and in Michigan (broken voting machines with uncounted votes on them, etc.). Not to mention the phone calls telling people that the polls were closed when they were still open (many states).

    Democrats can not afford to assume this will be a fair election.

  49. 49.

    ant

    I live in Wisconsin.

     

    Every time I go down there the fucking Republicans have changed the rules.

     

    How soon you can vote early, how to get absentee ballet sent to my house, the hours they’re open till, what works for ID, on and on and on.

    The last time I had to renew my drivers license, it was a big hassle from this shit. What the fuck does a SS card prove anyway? And why do I have to get a new picture every time now? And why do I have to wait for the ID to get made in California and the sent to me? My ID got thrown out in the mail, and I had to do all that shit twice. Fuck.

  51. 51.

    Ella in New Mexico

    It’s time for some shit-kicking investigative journalists to start digging into what the Hell is being held over the heads of the Republicans who did a 180 on Donald Trump and are now his biggest propaganda machines and protectors.

    I’m betting they could start with Lindsey Graham and the strings would lead to all the others.

  54. 54.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @ant: Why do you need to get a new picture on the license you have to renew once every eight years?  Come the fuck on.

    ETA:  I think the Voter ID requirement is stupid and unconstitutional, but you are full of shit.

  56. 56.

    SFAW

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Why do you need to get a new picture on the license you have to renew once every eight years?  Come the fuck on.

    Nicely done

     

    ETA: Although your sentiment was obvious (to me, at least) without the ETA.

  57. 57.

    polyorchnid octopunch

    @Betty Cracker: And just like Tic Tac Toe, and Global Thermonuclear War, for American Idol the only winning move is not to play.

    The contract you sign to be able to audition is an exercise in how to exploit the naive.

  59. 59.

    gvg

    People who don’t plan to vote for Trump are scared to lose. It’s a real factor.  So we are going to look at electability. That is just the way it is.  What happens to us if Trump wins reelection? Disaster. what happens to Trump voters if he loses? Not much except to their feelings.  Now actual Trump employees…may go to jail, but the voters? Some might lose a job or friend but they probably have already if they were going to. Saying we should not consider this is falling on deaf ears in my case. I WILL consider it.  Now I have to say the pundits seem clueless and even my fellow posters on this blog don’t convincingly know. It’s hard to know.

    Right after 2016 I was so fearful I wanted to say next time white straight male. Then I was like I won’t let them limit my choices that much. Now I am looking at real candidates, and you know what? There are trade offs even if you only want to take into account electability. Everyone has pluses and minuses just in that category. Everybody “should” appeal to some group more and another group less. And then there is the fact that policies and skill sets must impact electability too.  At this point I just want the flakes and cranks gone and I want to see some real votes so I can test the theories about electability versus what some people really think even if they happen not to be a representative sample.  That is still aways a way thought.

  60. 60.

    catclub

    OT: Aramco IPO. If they were Jewish, this would be called chutzpah.

    An unsuccessful attempt was even made to persuade Qatar – under economic blockade by Riyadh – to make a large investment.

  61. 61.

    Jay

    @Major Major Major Major:

    there are times, places and processes where tactical, protest and message voteing are effective tactics, if well coordinated.

     

    US Presidential Elections are ususally not the time, place or process where tactical, message or protest* voting is effective.

    (*crawling through broken glass excepted).

  62. 62.

    gene108

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I am not worried about that. If the black voters in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee are able to vote, we will be fine. That is the concern.

    No voter ID laws in PA.

    In Philly, it’s about turn out, as well as winning over the suburbs, which are trending Democratic.

  63. 63.

    Roger Moore

    @hells littlest angel:

    Sadly, that’s how the great majority of people make their choices about everything.

    Even most people who think they’re extremely rational and always base their choices on the evidence are prone to choose their evidence based on their preconceptions.

  64. 64.

    Brachiator

    @Jay:

    there are times, places and processes where tactical, protest and message voteing are effective tactics, if well coordinated.

    In the UK, the Conservative Party is worried that tactical voting may reduce or eliminate the projected Tory victory in tomorrow’s election.  I heard that some Tory MP called tactical voting “sinister.”

  65. 65.

    gene108

    2008 was an exciting primary, between the expected front-runner Hillary and a promising young Senator, Barack Obama.

    It got people really fired up for the general election.

    I think we used up all the excitement, energy, and goodwill we are capable of generating in a primary campaign season, in 2008.

    2016 became a shitshow.

    2020 is becoming a shitshow, with billionaires buying their way in, promising  candidates, like Harris, dropping out, and others barely hanging on, like Castro, Booker, and Klobacher, as well as Biden jumping in and hurting the chance for new blood to be injected into the Presidency.

  67. 67.

    catclub

    @ant: it was a big hassle from this shit. What the fuck does a SS card prove anyway?

     

    1. That was my point. All you need to do to stop voting by the relatively unmotivated, is make it a hassle.
    2.  SS card proof. Why the fuck is my Passport not authoritative at the Social Security Office?  To fix a wrong birth city location they wanted original birth certificate. Even though the Passport is issued by the Federal Government, and requires a birth certificate to issue one, and it  proves the state you born in. So at all federal agencies, the FIRST acceptable documentation should always be US Passport…. when I am king.
  72. 72.

    zhena gogolia

    @schrodingers_cat:

    This is what happened to me at Thanksgiving dinner. And just as I was in the middle of the sentence “It’s your cynical, above-it-all attitude . . .” the host screamed, “Stop talking about politics!” They always do that when they sense they’re about to lose the argument. (BTW, it was not I who started talking about politics.)

  74. 74.

    gene108

    @schrodingers_cat:

    From my personal experience doing door-to-door fundraising, trying to get people to vote, in 2018, and some other things, 2 successes out of 30 is a good ratio for success versus failure, in door-to-door work.

  75. 75.

    The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion

    @schrodingers_cat: Could be worse.  I recently contacted the local Democratic party to ask if I could participate in any upcoming voter registration activities.  I was told that it’s unethical for the Democratic party to “solicit voter registrations”.  The last two organizational party meetings were devoted to A.) arranging a $300 a plate dinner for some state-level functionaries who might come to town and B.) complaining about the lack of participation by people of color.  In a perhaps related note, not a single effort to engage people of color, or contribute in any way to local communities of color, were discussed.  I am not optimistic.

  77. 77.

    gene108

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Not the way I remember it. There was excitement about making history, with either the first woman or African-American President topping the ticket.

    Yes, it is was a hard fought and close primary, but hatchets were buried, and outside of a few dead enders, people came together for the general election.

  79. 79.

    catclub

    @Roger Moore: This. Charlie Munger quote is something like. “I think that I am more sensitive to and aware of how bias and motivation dominate decision making and investment than 99% of investors. And I am still regularly surprised by how much I underestimate those effects.”

  80. 80.

    catclub

    @Jay: It wasn’t very effective blackmail, because Qatar did not invest.

     

    Plus, there is no leverage if Riyadh has already imposed sanctions on Qatar.

  81. 81.

    glory b

    @SFAW: I’m in PA. My daughter was visiting a friend (African American) in Florida on voting day there. Her friend stood in line for HOURS to vote, and said it’s been like that for the last several years. She also said people give up and leave all the time.

    Her friend doesn’t have kids and runs her own business. Figure how many blacks folks don’t fit into those categories.

     

    This is why I always want to put a fist through the television when I hear the “Hillary didn’t go to Wisconsin” mantra. I’ve heard it expanded to “Hillary didn’t go to any of the swing state,” mostly from Bernie Bros. That was the first election without the voting rights protections in place.

  83. 83.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud:

    When has that ever been a problem?

    I’m so damn old I remember the campaign to “trade” Gore and Nader votes between safe and swing states

  84. 84.

    Baud

    @gene108:

    but hatchets were buried,

    If Hillary were the evil manipulative witch people think she is, she would have undermined Obama so she could run in 2012 instead of 2016.

    Her concession speech and actions at the 2008 convention do not get enough credit.

  86. 86.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Roger Moore: and @hells littlest angel:

    Sadly, that’s how the great majority of people make their choices about everything.

    Even most people who think they’re extremely rational and always base their choices on the evidence are prone to choose their evidence based on their preconceptions.

    Rationalization is the basis of human thought.  Humans are not rational animals, we’re animals capable of reason.  Emotion makes the decision, then logic has a chance to force a new decision or justify it, always.  In everyone.  There is no human decision making without emotion.  There have been unpleasant opportunities to test that.  Overriding emotional decisions with logic is a difficult learned behavior.  If you want to understand people, this fact is incredibly important.

  87. 87.

    Brachiator

    @gvg:

    Right after 2016 I was so fearful I wanted to say next time white straight male. Then I was like I won’t let them limit my choices that much.

    I think that “electability” is largely nonsense cooked up by the media, pundits and political strategists.  You only know who was “electable” in retrospect, when you look at the vote tallies.

    And a number of satirists have noted that Trump and the GOP have the white male vote locked up. You cannot out-white Trump. Can’t be done.

    But you are right that all of the Democratic Party candidates are good candidates.  They are certainly better than Trump in every way possible. And the early diversity of the candidate pool was a much better reflection of the Democratic Party and the country than anything that the GOP offers at any level.

    So, again, as you note, it pretty much comes down to trying to determine which candidate has the best policies and abilities.  That in the end is the only real test of electability.

  92. 92.

    Roger Moore

    @Zzyzx:

    Fear of being primaried is the majority of it.

    I think it’s more than just fear of being primaried.  It’s that Trump has changed people’s ideas about what works in the party.  For a long time, Republican officials were restrained by the belief that they needed to look sensible enough not to lose the votes of independents and Republicans at the left most edge of the party, who might always choose to vote for the Democrat if they were too crazy.  Trump seems to have disproved that theory, and instead shown that those voters are really loyal Republican voters even when the candidate is crazy and/or incompetent.  That has changed candidates’ ideas about the need to appeal to the centrist wing of the party, so they spend all their time appealing to the crazies.

    I say it seems to have changed that, but I’m skeptical.  I think Trump was able to win both because he was able to pretend to be more moderate than he really was- a lot of people thought he was closer to the center than Hillary- and because of the way the electoral college works.  The 2018 election showed that voters may have been OK with candidate Trump but they don’t like president Trump nearly as much.  Candidates who tried to cater exclusively to the crazy wing of the party, even in the general election, got wiped out in 2018.

  94. 94.

    dnfree

    @Omnes Omnibus:  In Illinois we generally have to renew drivers’ licenses every four years, and last time I didn’t even have to go in person. They mailed me a form and I returned it and they issued me a new license with the photo from four years previous. If a license is lost or goes through the laundry, you’d think the state could just reprint it.  (People over a certain age have to go in person and take a road test, but I’m not there yet.)

    This time was different because of Real ID, but that’s a federal requirement.

  96. 96.

    Mnemosyne

    @gene108:

    There weren’t supposed to be voter ID laws in place in Pennsylvania, and yet there were plenty of plausible reports in 2016 of people being turned away at the polls for not having one.

    Voter suppression is real. Discounting or denying it just lets it go on and get worse.

  97. 97.

    Roger Moore

    @gene108:

    No voter ID laws in PA.

    Voter ID laws are not the only way of suppressing minority turnout.  There are all kinds of other dirty tricks, like moving polling places, not having enough voting machines so the lines are unacceptably long, etc.  The Republicans know a lot of them, and they’re constantly working on new ones.

  98. 98.

    Kent

    @Angela (@Toocananj): 

    Delurking here to say that I think it is really important for white people this election to pay attention to what marginalized groups are saying and to take a really serious open look at who they are supporting. Especially black women, who are the backbone of the Democratic base and they need to be heard and preferenced. In these times, groups that have always lived in a hostile environment in the US have a lot to teach white folks, and we need to listen.

    I’m listening. What are they saying?

  100. 100.

    Jay

    @Brachiator:

    in a Parliamentary system you get one vote, and that vote is for the local MP.

    You don’t get to vote for the Prime Minister or to decide which Party runs the Country.

    Just the local MP.

    In times of national crisis, where one votes for or against the local MP, to ensure a National Party does or doesn’t get a majority of seats, and thus the Prime Ministership, is of course, seen by the local Jolly Fellow as pure evil, because they want the benifit of being seen as the local Jolly Fellow, with none of the drawbacks of being tied to the National Party, but with all the benifits of the backing of the National Party.

  101. 101.

    Another Scott

    I believe this has come up before, but an interesting article by Francis Collins (NIH director): GovExec:

    But would observations in mice hold true for humans? To find out, Panda joined forces with Taub, a cardiologist and physician-scientist. The researchers enlisted 19 men and women with metabolic syndrome, defined as having three or more of five specific risk factors: high fasting blood glucose, high blood pressure, high triglyceride levels, low “good” cholesterol, and/or extra abdominal fat. Most participants were obese and taking at least one medication to help manage their metabolic risk factors.

    In the study, participants followed one rule: eat anything that you want, just do so over a 10-hour period of your own choosing. So, for the next three months, these folks logged their eating times and tracked their sleep using a special phone app created by the research team. They also wore activity and glucose monitors.

    By the pilot study’s end, participants following the 10-hour limitation had lost on average 3 percent of their weight and about 3 percent of their abdominal fat. They also lowered their cholesterol and blood pressure. Although this study did not find 10-hour TRE significantly reduced blood glucose levels in all participants, those with elevated fasting blood glucose did have improvement. In addition, participants reported other lifestyle improvements, including better sleep.

    The participants generally saw their metabolic health improve without skipping meals. Most chose to delay breakfast, waiting about two hours after they got up in the morning. They also ate dinner earlier, about three hours before going to bed—and then did no late night snacking.

    (Emphasis added.)

    3% is only 6 pounds for a 200 pound person, but 2 pounds a month without doing anything but changing when you eat is nothing to sneeze at.

    It’s a tiny study, but it again illustrates that diet-and-health is much more than calories in vs calories out.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  102. 102.

    dnfree

    @Brachiator: I have to add communication skills. I thought John Kerry was a reasonable candidate in 2004, but in addition to the Swiftboating he turned out to be unable to respond in a simple and direct way to attacks. He would be rambling on and I’d be yelling at the TV “Just say…”, a compact and clearer response. That surprised me.

  103. 103.

    Roger Moore

    @Baud:

    The other problem for 2016 was the geography of the defections.

    I’m still not convinced Trump’s win was legitimate.  The government has come back several times with admissions that Russian hacking of the election was more serious than previously believed.  First they said they tried hacking places but failed.  Then they said they only got voter lists but didn’t change anything.  I still have a hard time believing that they didn’t disenfranchise enough voters and/or change enough votes to swing the election in the crucial states.

  104. 104.

    rikyrah

    WHY did my cynical side take over when looking at these pictures?

    Lips so pursed.

     

    <a href=”https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7781281/Harvey-Weinstein-arrives-court-WALKER.html?ico=pushly-notifcation-small”>Harvey Weinstein, 67, arrives at court with a walker after complaining about back injury as impatient judge increases his bail to $5MILLION and warns him not to let his health problems get in the way of trial</a>

    Weinstein, 67, arrived at court in New York on Wednesday with the walker

    He was hunched over the device which had two tennis balls stuck on the bottom Weinstein is due to go to trial in January for five sexual assault charges

    He was in court for a judge’s final decision on whether or not to keep his bail at $1million cash Judge James Burke increased it to $5million and warned Weinstein not to cause any disruptions

    Weinstein is due to have surgery on Thursday; he told the judge: ‘This is good for you’

    By JENNIFER SMITH FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

    PUBLISHED: 10:39 EST, 11 December 2019 | UPDATED: 11:02 EST, 11 December 2019

  106. 106.

    Jay

    @Baud:

    when for example, a protest vote against a preferred Majoritarian, because of local or national issues, causes them to lose the election, rather than just lose the “message” votes.

  107. 107.

    rikyrah

    if we get OUR VOTERS OUT..

     

    we don’t have to give two shyts about swing voters.

    Make sure that OUR VOTERS CAN VOTE.

     

    THAT, should be the priority.

  108. 108.

    Brachiator

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I’m at work and am not going to spend any more time trying to find comparable figures for 2008, others are welcome to

    Interesting chart. Thanks for this. So, 12%. Not a huge number. But I also look at this as perhaps voters the Democrats can reach.

  109. 109.

    rikyrah

    Once again…for the Bleacher seats….

     

    The number of REGULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTY VOTERS DENIED THE FRANCHISE DUE TO VOTER SUPPRESSION IN 2016…

     

    IN those ‘ questionable’ states….

     

    was at least THREE TIMES the margin of Dolt45’s ‘victory’.

    AT.LEAST.THREE.TIMES. 

  111. 111.

    Felanius Kootea

    @Mary Ellen Sandahl: 

    Republicans would fight that tooth and nail because they would always lose the presidential election if everyone that could vote got to vote. They’ve won via the electoral college twice in the last 20 years.

  112. 112.

    glory b

    @gene108:

    The Repubs tried in PA, passed the voter ID law, but our majority Dem Supreme Court overturned it, based their decision on the PA constitution, so the Feds couldn’t touch it.

     

    PA is majority Dem, all of our state wide elected officials (with the exception of a few judges) are Dems, but because we were also one of the most gerrymandered states in the US, Repubs run the legislature.

    The same court in-gerrymandered us recently (Repubs couldn’t come up with a map that met with the court’s approval, so they redrew it themselves), so hoping for better reps in the future.

  113. 113.

    Brachiator

    @Major Major Major Major:

    This would be a good point if we were discussing the outcome of the election rather than how 2008 was, in fact, an acrimonious primary

    It was an acrimonious primary. We got through it. The upcoming primary will be rocky.  We will get through it as well.

    And the PUMA stuff did not have any impact on the final outcome.  Comparisons to Sanders are not necessarily helpful since a good chunk of Sanders supporters were not traditional Democrats, but alienated voters or critics of the party.  Different dynamic.

  114. 114.

    delk

    I’m continually amazed at how easy, effortless, and fun it is for me to vote in Chicago. I’m continually horrified when I see long lines in other states. Voter suppression is blatant and televised.

  115. 115.

    Chyron HR

    @Major Major Major Major: 
    12% of Sanders supporters voting for Trump is fucking appalling considering that he literally wanted the primary results to be overturned on the grounds that his supporters were true progressives whose votes should count for more.

  116. 116.

    Tim C.

    @Roger Moore: Every time I feel the panic rising, I say this to myself.

     

    Remember, remember 2018 in November.  We won big across the suburbs.   We won in Iowa,  Michigan, Wisconsin,  and Penn.  We won in North Carolina.   It’s rational to be afraid,  but hope is warranted too.

  117. 117.

    Jay

    @catclub:

    sanctions were the least of the Sawdi plans for Qatar, Mohammed Bone Saw didn’t expect that both Turkey and Iran would quickly back Qatar with economic and military support, given past Qatari contributions to the Sawdi Arabian/Petty Kingdoms regional ratfucking.

     

    the “offer” to Qatar was an opportunity for the Qataris to get off of the Sawdi shitlist. That Qatar would look around at how the Sawdi plans are all fu€ked up and failing, and say, “no thanks, we are good with the friends we have”, wasn’t expected by the Sawdis.

    That Qatar learned the hard way that bribing Jarvanka bought them nothing, and that the lesson learned would be applied going forward, was unexpected by Mohammed Bone Saw and his hack advisors.

  118. 118.

    VFX Lurker

    Since voting nature is essentially unfathomable, isn’t the best approach just to support the candidate that appeals to you?

    My preferred candidate dropped out last week, and Biden is going to win this primary with black support. Therefore, I must determine which candidate can best deny Wilmer a win in California — Warren or Biden.

    Wilmer has the most field offices in California of all the candidates, but I don’t want his stink on my state.

  119. 119.

    germy

    Here’s a comment I saw over at LGM:

    rm I feel like some old, scared gatekeepers and donors are systematically eliminating every person who might become a charismatic change figure. Every woman, every person of color is being taken out and we’ll have a very suboptimal choice of white men by the primaries.

  120. 120.

    Baud

    @Brachiator:

     

    The big problem with Sanders in 2016 weren’t the Busters’ votes. It was that his messaging about Hillary reinforced Trump’s messaging about Hillary (and the media’s).

  121. 121.

    Felanius Kootea

    @rikyrah: Thank you!  It’s crazy to me that the Democratic Party isn’t doing more to address and publicize voter suppression, reduced numbers of polling places in certain areas, voter ID laws, etc. I see Stacy Abrams and Eric Holder working on this but where are the non-black Democratic leaders who realize it’s a problem and are doing something about it?  Obama won by pulling together a coalition and Republicans saw that and have worked to disenfranchise members of that coalition.  What’s the response to that AS A PARTY?

  123. 123.

    Brachiator

    @dnfree:

     

    I have to add communication skills. I thought John Kerry was a reasonable candidate in 2004, but in addition to the Swiftboating he turned out to be unable to respond in a simple and direct way to attacks.

    Yeah. This can be a problem. Some political strategists probably love these attacks.  It is unfortunate if the candidate can’t respond well. But it is also unfortunate that often the candidate should not have to respond at all to a phony attack.  Voters get sucked in and don’t ask whether the attack was about anything real or just political gamesmanship.

  125. 125.

    Jay

    @rikyrah:

    because he was also deliberately fu€king around with his tracking monitor to evade the terms of his house arrest and possibly commit more rapes on the side?

  126. 126.

    Kent

    Apparently the current news  (Eschaton and LGM so far) is that Biden’s camp is spreading the idea that he is likely only planning to be a 1-term president.  They aren’t coming right out and saying it.  Just spreading the notion that it is likely.

    So fucking great.  We are looking at nominating an instant lame-duck.  Mitch McConnell must be cackling.  He won’t even have to lift a finger to make sure the next Dem president only serves one term.

    Sigh.   This is the worst of all possible timelines I think.

  127. 127.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @delk: That was my experience when I lived in Chicago too. We have a great Secretary of State in New Mexico and voting here is super easy and accessible. We have a long early voting period and people can vote in any “voting convenience center” in their county. Plus we have paper ballots.

    Having Democrats in office doesn’t ensure perfection, but it can make a huge difference in voter enfranchisement.

  128. 128.

    Brachiator

    @Baud:

    The big problem with Sanders in 2016 weren’t the Busters’ votes. It was that his messaging about Hillary reinforced Trump’s messaging about Hillary (and the media’s).

    I think people make more of this because they (reasonably) dislike Sanders.

     

    But this is not going to change, especially for Sanders’ supporters.  Key to Sanders message is the idea that both the GOP and the Democratic Party are sellouts to corporate interests.  Oddly enough, for now, Warren is getting a pass.  I have even seen some Bernie bloggers suggest that Warren would be acceptable as Sanders’  VP choice.

  129. 129.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @hells littlest angel:

    Disclaimer: I confidently predicted that Clinton would win in 2016 by 30 points. I’m still smarting from that.

    My predictive accuracy has been excellent in the Trump Era.  The big thing I’ll own up to is not understanding minority voters.  I didn’t think AAs would be so interested in Biden.  If they remain so, he will win the primary, I will trust their choice was the best one, and Democrats will fall in against the real enemy.  I have never seen anything like how everyone remotely liberal hates Trump.  It makes the Republican hatred of Obama seem like small potatoes.  A pity so many of us had to actually see Trump in action to learn this lesson.

  130. 130.

    rikyrah

    @delk:

     

    I’m continually amazed at how easy, effortless, and fun it is for me to vote in Chicago. I’m continually horrified when I see long lines in other states. Voter suppression is blatant and televised.

     

    From beginning to end, it takes me, at most during Early Voting, 15 minutes. And, because we can do it so easily for 2 million people…

    I know that those long lines are nothing but voter suppression. Absolutely deliberate.

  131. 131.

    glory b

    @Roger Moore:

    I’ve said that about PA several times here. The only Repubs to win state wide elections here in the last SEVEN elections were Trump and Toomey (for Senate). In 2016, the only way the numbers work is if you believe a large number of Pennsyltuckians voted for Trump and Toomey and then voted for Dems down the line for rest of the statewide races.

  132. 132.

    Edith

    @TomatoQueen:

     

    BTW, LauraToo mentioned that A) he was being a trooper, and B) that he’s adorable. So my fears that LauraToo and Merlin would be pariahs at the end of the flight appear to be unfounded.

  133. 133.

    Brachiator

    @Kent:

    Apparently the current news (Eschaton and LGM so far) is that Biden’s camp is spreading the idea that he is likely only planning to be a 1-term president. They aren’t coming right out and saying it. Just spreading the notion that it is likely.

    This is political insanity, if true.

  134. 134.

    Felanius Kootea

    @germy: A commenter a few months ago wrote on this blog that the 2020 election will be about white people deciding what future they want.  I rolled my eyes reading that; I thought the Dems know they have never won the white vote in a presidential election after LBJ, they understand their voting base is diverse.  Now, watching the primaries unfold, I get that commenter’s point. If a fear driven process ends up eliminating racial and gender diversity, Trump “wins” even if he loses.

  136. 136.

    Baud

    @Brachiator:

     

    I don’t know what “making more” means.  I can’t put a number on it, of course, but do we no longer think messaging matters?

     

    I do remember that Trump would constantly invoke how Sanders was “treated” in the primary, and Sanders couldn’t respond because he had adopted the same lie.

  137. 137.

    rikyrah

    @Frankensteinbeck:

     

    The big thing I’ll own up to is not understanding minority voters.  I didn’t think AAs would be so interested in Biden.

     

    I don’t know how to say this in any other way than this….

    White people proved that they couldn’t be trusted in 2016.

    THAT is what Biden is about.

    There is no group in America that understands what it means to be under GOP control and NOT have a Federal mechanism to put the foot down on the necks of the GOP in those red states….

    than the Black populace in those Southern States.

    These GOPers were no less who they’ve been in the era of Dolt45…but, between 2009-2016, there was a Federal Government led by Barack Obama, that looked out for them, and put a check on these red state GOPers when they could.

    Those Black people want their federal protection mechanisms back.

  139. 139.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: he also made Wall Street Speeches one of the cornerstones of his stump speech, it was his big laugh line for a month or more. While trump sold himself as the fox who was gonna guard the henhouse.

  140. 140.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Another Scott: Maybe.  Or maybe the fact that other people were looking in detail at what the study participants were eating, and that changed their behavior in other ways… like not drinking that extra drink or not eating that extra slice of pie.  I know I behave better when I am monitored.

  141. 141.

    Baud

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

     

    Ultimately, IMHO, he brought Republican culture to the progressive movement and especially young progressives. Obviously, a lot of bad acts contributed to the outcome, but the other bad actors aren’t seeking our votes in the primary.

  142. 142.

    Brachiator

    @Baud:

    I don’t know what “making more” means. I can’t put a number on it, of course, but do we no longer think messaging matters?

    I think that people often make more about messaging and narratives, etc, than is justified.

    I do remember that Trump would constantly invoke how Sanders was “treated” in the primary, and Sanders couldn’t respond because he had adopted the same lie.

    It would not have bothered me at all had the Democrats excluded Sanders from this current primary. He believed what he believed and his supporters were equally upset.  He is not a Democrat.  What did you expect?  What do you expect for this election cycle if Sanders loses again?

  144. 144.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @rikyrah:

    White people proved that they couldn’t be trusted in 2016.

    No argument.  That’s why if blacks keep supporting Biden, I accept it’s the right choice.

  145. 145.

    Betty Cracker

    @rikyrah: That could explain the lack of traction for Harris or Booker, but why Biden specifically? If the fear is that white people won’t vote for a non-white person (putting aside that they did in sufficient numbers to elect and then reelect Obama by comfortable margins), why not choose another white Democrat who doesn’t have Biden’s enormous piles of baggage?

    My theory is it’s partly a name recognition thing (it’s still fairly early for non-political junkies to be paying attention to primary races) and partly that Biden has unique receipts as an ally because he worked for Obama and continues to invoke Obama often and defend policies like the ACA.

  148. 148.

    Another Scott

    @Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Could be.  The study is available here (19 page .pdf)

    Caloric intake was estimated based on the photo and/or annotation entries on the mCC app. Despite no recommendations to change dietary quantity or quality, there was an 8.62% ±14.47% decrease in mean daily caloric intake during intervention (1,792.00 ± 578.08 calories) compared to baseline (1,990.59 ± 644.89 calories, p = 0.007; Figure 3A; Table 1).

    Lots of things could be going on, but the trend was in the right direction.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  150. 150.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Betty Cracker: Biden has unique receipts as an ally because he worked for Obama and continues to invoke Obama often and defend policies like the ACA.

    This, and his history of developing a relationship with black voters over the decades. Based on the articles I’ve read, he’s trusted by many in the AA community. It’s more than name recognition. It’s the result of being present in a way the other white candidates have not been.

    ETA: I also think that people whose very lives depend on who is running the government and who are in currently and constantly in danger might be a little more aware and engaged than you seem to be giving them credit for.

  151. 151.

    rikyrah

    @Betty Cracker:

     

    but why Biden specifically?

     

    I have written before that Biden took the moderate lane. Everyone else left it open for him.

     

    Black people don’t do ‘revolution’.

    Revolution hasn’t EVER turned out well for us…and this goes back to the original Revolution for this country.

    Our Black Revolutionaries wind up in three places:

    1. Jail
    2. Dead
    3. Exiled in another country

    Black people are pragmatic moderates who believe in pushing things forward in the right direction.

    Just so happens that Biden took the moderate lane, which, fortunately for him, includes the Black base.

  152. 152.

    Jinchi

    p@schrodingers_cat:&nbsp
    I’ve gone door to door asking for signatures to get a candidate on the ballot and understand your frustration, but I wouldn’t sign voter registration papers and hand them to a stranger who knocked on my door. Because I would wonder if the document might be tossed in a shredder. It seems like a few people have gone to jail in recent years for pulling a scam like that.

    I think the party would have better success doing a constant PR blitz explaining how to register and working with community leaders to motivate their neighbors.

  153. 153.

    laura

    My primary candidate dropped out. Still, I truly believe the adage about the primary and the general election- fall in love in the primary, fall in line in the general.

  154. 154.

    Another Scott

    @O. Felix Culpa:

    Based on his success to-date in the polls compared to the 2008 cycle, it seems to mainly be a consequence of the Obama years rather than his history before then. Wikipedia:

    Polling

    Perhaps the biggest problem Biden faced was that voters did not know about him and his candidacy. An April 2–5 [2007] poll conducted by Gallup found that 38% of the public had never heard of Joe Biden and 17% had no opinion at all about him. In contrast, 0% of the public had never heard of Hillary Clinton and only 3% had no opinion according to a June 1–3 poll by Gallup.[48] A September poll conducted by Clemson University found that 36% of the public had never heard of Joe Biden and only 44% had a favorable opinion of him. However, this was the highest awareness rating in the Democratic field outside of the frontrunners (Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards) and non-declared but highly discussed Al Gore.[49] A September 18 poll found that 56% of respondents had not heard enough about Biden to form an opinion about him.[50]

    Biden had remained low in the opinion polls when compared to other candidates. A Rasmussen survey taken September 19–24 put him in fourth place among his Democratic opponents at 4%, trailing Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.[51] In the American Research Group, Biden was fourth at 5% behind Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, for the month of October 2007.[52] In head-to-head matchups with Republican candidates, Biden trailed Senator John McCain on January 10, 2007, 38% to 46%.[53] On July 17, Biden trailed former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 37% to 46%. The closest Biden came to a GOP candidate in a head-to-head matchup was against former Senator Fred Thompson, trailing him 38% to 40% on July 17, 2007.[54]

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  156. 156.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Another Scott: Interesting, but do those numbers reflect black voters or the general voting population? I certainly wouldn’t argue that being Obama’s VP didn’t help Biden’s reputation in the AA community.

  157. 157.

    Jay

    One of the suspects involved in a firefight in Jersey City that left six people dead on Tuesday had published anti-Semitic posts online before the shooting. Investigators believe the attack—which targeted a Kosher market—was motivated by those sentiments. https://t.co/lCK8vgQhbm— Caroline Orr (@RVAwonk) December 11, 2019

  158. 158.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    Since the current “electability polls” have

    Rabid Skunk 53%  Trump 45%

     

    I’ll just hold my nose and vote for a Rabid Skunk. Better than Trump.

  159. 159.

    Immanentize

    @Baud: I agree an dthat is a good point about the Trump campaign coopting the Sanders gripe position — but at the same time, I do not think “messaging” which people seem to be constantly complaining about re: Democrats is as important as solid proposals and competent candidates.  In other words, the best message in anything short of a national race (i.e. president) is the candidate.  Even in the Presidential position, which is why, I hope, Hillary got more votes than Trump.

  160. 160.

    Jay

    DOJ IG just said he’s still investigating contacts between NY FBI field office and Rudy Giuliani in run-up to 2016 Election Day. Says difficulty is getting people — presumably FBI agents — to discuss the content of the contacts!!!— Jonathan Allen (@jonallendc) December 11, 2019

  162. 162.

    Brachiator

    @Betty Cracker:

    That could explain the lack of traction for Harris or Booker, but why Biden specifically?

    Of course, part of the issue is that I am not aware of recent interviews with black voters.  Reporters would still rather run past black and Latino voters to talk to aggrieved white working class voters.

    Also not aware of too many interviews with black women voters, or with women voters in general.

    So, this leaves lots of room for speculation and theories. And room for reporters and pundits to ignore or write off nonwhite voters.

  164. 164.

    Another Scott

    @O. Felix Culpa: The Gallup numbers are general population.  I don’t doubt that the black numbers could have been higher, but I don’t think they were overwhelmingly higher.  E.g. CNN from October 2007:

    South Carolina is the first primary state where a candidate’s support among blacks will be tested. African-Americans make up an estimated 50 percent of Democratic primary voters. It’s a constituency that helped propel Edwards to victory in South Carolina’s 2004 primary, when he won 37 percent of the black vote, according to exit polls.

    This time around, Edwards trails Clinton and Obama by wide margins overall, coming in around 10 percent among South Carolinians in most state polls, trailing Obama by as much as 20 percentage points and Clinton by as much as 30.

    Among African-Americans, the numbers are worse.

    According to a poll of randomly selected African-Americans conducted last month by Winthrop University and South Carolina’s ETV, Obama and Clinton are battling for the lead among black voters, with Obama leading Clinton 35 percent to 31 percent. Edwards came in at 3 percent.

    “His ‘Two Americas’ message resonated with black voters before,” said Scott Huffmon of Winthrop University, who conducted the poll. “There are just two candidates this time that have captured the imagination among black voters.”

    Huffmon added, “I don’t personally think this should be read as rejection of John Edwards by black voters.”

    This “non-rejection” is precisely where the Edwards campaign sees an opening. Despite its well-heeled opponents, the Edwards camp and its African-American surrogates insist, much like they do nationally, that black voters will turn out for Edwards when they examine the pocketbook, dinner-table types of issues that the candidate emphasizes on the stump.

    There’s another 31% of the black vote that isn’t discussed, but Biden isn’t even mentioned in that piece.

    (I’m surprised that Obama was doing so well in this SC poll in October 2007. I thought the folklore was that Obama didn’t take off among black Americans until he won Iowa in early 2008.)

    To be clear, I really don’t know whether Biden has a long and friendly history with black voters going back before Obama or not. It’s just that based on his past performance and now, it seems clear that the Obama years made a huge difference independent of that.

    FWIW. :-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  166. 166.

    Jinchi

    1. @rikyrah: I disagree that Biden had the moderate lane all to himself. I think there were easily 5 other candidates in that lane including Klobuchar. But Biden’s name recognition made it virtually impossible for lesser known candidates to gain traction. “I’m a young Joe Biden” isn’t a great campaign platform when Joe is still standing on the stage.
  168. 168.

    Betty Cracker

    @rikyrah: Klobuchar is also in the moderate lane, and she’s moving up, according to some Iowa polls, though still trailing significantly. I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t try to make a break-out move in the upcoming debate, though I’m not sure what that would look like…

  171. 171.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Jinchi: name recognition and the Obama connection. And whatever else you wanna say about him, Biden’s goofiness at least makes him interesting. Amy Klobuchar is as exciting as meatloaf, but next to Michael Bennet she’s like fusion cuisine prepared by a Michelin-starred chef.

  172. 172.

    glory b

    @Betty Cracker: Some reporter who was interviewing black voters in Carolina said that they said the knew Biden’s heart, and knew how he would govern.

     

    It was also pointed out that Biden had a few decades of going to black churches, NAACP dinners, fundraisers for black candidates, etc., and that is a lot of voter contact. He didn’t just get interested in them last year.

    Big well-known secret, lots of black voters wanted the Crime Bill, the Congressional Black Caucus supported it, so a lot of us don’t see why we would blame that on him. For better or worse, Anita Hill has been forgotten about. In a focus group of black women I saw on television, the younger ones didn’t know who she was.

    And, as rickyrah said, we don’t do revolution, we want our norms back. Lots of us are fine with capitalism, we’d just like a fair shot. One of the most jaw dropping thing I’ve seen recently is that a number (to be sure, I haven’t done a poll) of young black voters I’ve talked to kind of like Bloomberg. Remember, some of the more popular musical artists they listen to have compared themselves to billionaires, and named themselves after Mafia figures.

  173. 173.

    rikyrah

    @Brachiator:

     

    Of course, part of the issue is that I am not aware of recent interviews with black voters.  Reporters would still rather run past black and Latino voters to talk to aggrieved white working class voters.

    Also not aware of too many interviews with black women voters, or with women voters in general.

     

    I am pretty much the most political person in my circle. Everyone else is like, tell me when to go and vote.

    All the non-White women at my job (Black and Latino) were waiting for Biden. Nothing that has happened during this primary season has changed their minds one bit.

  175. 175.

    rikyrah

    @Betty Cracker:

     

    @rikyrah: Klobuchar is also in the moderate lane, and she’s moving up, according to some Iowa polls, though still trailing significantly. I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t try to make a break-out move in the upcoming debate, though I’m not sure what that would look like…

     

    She’s a woman with absolutely very little name recognition, and few Black community ties.

    Hillary had over 40 years of ties with the Black community…even predating her being with Bill. She had all kinds of folks that could step up and vouch for her.

    Klobucher doesn’t have that.

    Plus, Joe had 44’s back…and, that counts for a lot.

  177. 177.

    The Moar You Know

     Me and my partner registered 2 voters after knocking on close to 30 doors. It felt like an exercise in futility. So people who want the Ds to target the unregistered voters, we are already doing that and it is not easy.

     

    @schrodingers_cat:  6% success rate.

    A six percent increase in Dem turnout over 2018 would flip the Senate.  And have Trump clean out of office.

    That’s far from an “exercise in futility”.  And frankly, your success rate was pretty damn high compared to some people I know.

  178. 178.

    SFAW

    @Jay:

    Josh Marshall noted that the DOJ IG started his “investigation” in 2016, but somehow it keeps taking a back seat to highly important stuff like “Why are the Demon-rats trying to push the ridiculous ‘Russia screwed with the Election’ thing that the Deep State and Lie-beral MSM completely made up?” and “Pull my finger.”

  179. 179.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Jinchi: We gave them the postcard or a link to the website and they had the option of turning it in themselves. This voter registration drive was organized by the town Ds most of whom have lived here for decades.  The chair is retired school teacher who has lived in town since birth.  So your insinuation that we didn’t know WTF we were doing is insulting.

  182. 182.

    schrodingers_cat

    @The Moar You Know: I can calculate percentages. Husband kitteh and his partner had no one register and that was repeated for almost all the other pairs (we were 8 people in all).  We had almost 320 people in the list and about 5 people took the registration post cards.

    I was just voicing my frustration. It felt like a lot of work with little reward.

     

    MA voted for HRC overwhelmingly, our entire Congressional delegation is D. And the turnout was around 70% in the last election if the entire country voted like MA we would not have R rule.

  183. 183.

    Jay

    @SFAW:

    almost like higher up people in the DOJ Administration are running some kinda interference play by making the DOJ chase after snipes, grumpkins and snarkles,…..

  184. 184.

    Immanentize

    @rikyrah: My concern? Question? Wev? is what happens if Biden gets sick or flames out or some such?  It is not a done deal for him just as him.  Of course this could happen to any candidate, but more likely for Sanders and Biden.

  186. 186.

    Kraux Pas

    @glory b: Lots of us are fine with capitalism, we’d just like a fair shot.

     

    That’s the thing, though. I don’t see Biden pushing anything much to give people more of a fair shake. Actual policies he’s supported like the bankruptcy bill suggest the opposite.

     

    I’m actually closer to Biden’s position on healthcare than my current preferred candidate, Warren, but Biden pissed me off telling bald faced lies about Harris’s plan on the debate stage, and that wasn’t the only lie.

     

    Also, I’m still not in a forgiving mood for Democrats who acquiesced to Bush on Iraq. And Biden’s statement that the PATRIOT act was full of stuff they wanted to do for years appalled me.

     

    I’ll happily vote for any of the other plausible candidates, but the notion of Biden as nominee literally causes me mental anguish. I’m trying real hard to justify a Biden vote even though the election is a year away. The prospect of him as nominee has made me consider unspeakable voting behavior.

     

    Is our alternative to Trump really going to be a gladhandling white male bullshit artist with a history of supporting policies that have kept minorities unduly locked up and all of us in thrall to the financial sector, but with a nicer personal affect than the alternative?

  187. 187.

    Kent

    @Jinchi:@rikyrah: I disagree that Biden had the moderate lane all to himself. I think there were easily 5 other candidates in that lane including Klobuchar. But Biden’s name recognition made it virtually impossible for lesser known candidates to gain traction. “I’m a young Joe Biden” isn’t a great campaign platform when Joe is still standing on the stage.

    Michael Bennett, John Delaney, Eric Swalwell, John Hinkenlooper, Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, and Steve Bullock were all more or less safe moderate younger versions of Biden.  All of them either Senators, governors, or Congressmen and all reasonably popular and successful in their regions, so not absurd candidates.

  188. 188.

    Jay

    @schrodingers_cat:

    pre-internet “dating”, ask 100 women out, get one yes, if lucky.

    it’s all about the volume adding up over time,

    and yes, it’s frustrating.

     

    but like Cold Sales, it pays off over time.

  189. 189.

    ola azul

    @zhena gogolia:

    This is what happened to me at Thanksgiving dinner. And just as I was in the middle of the sentence “It’s your cynical, above-it-all attitude . . .” the host screamed, “Stop talking about politics!” They always do that when they sense they’re about to lose the argument. (BTW, it was not I who started talking about politics.)

    Re: hostile reax when about to lose an argument:

    After creepily and unjustly stalking Trayvon Martin, then confronting him despite being repeatedly warned not to by the authorities, and after initiating a hostile face-to-face confrontation, and once Trayvon Martin began deservedly kicking George Zimmerman’s stupid, racist, repugnant ass, it was then that George Zimmerman shot and killed Trayvon Martin. Cuz he was about to lose the argument, cuz he’s a cosplay vigilante coward, and cuz he could. Cuz Just-us justice.

  190. 190.

    The Moar You Know

    And, as rikyrah said, we don’t do revolution, we want our norms back.

    @glory b:  And as Adam has noted again and again and again, that won’t happen.  “Norms” are not coming back.  This country is going to be a lot different in the aftermath of Trump, and it won’t be for a few months.  It will be for many decades.  Politically, regionally, economically, racially.  We’re not going back because “back” has been destroyed.

    I know for me, personally, I am not going to be able to “work with” or even deal, hell, won’t be able to talk to: Republicans, Constitutional revanchists, Neo-Nazis, sovcits, Dems who run to give cover to Republican colleagues out of “comity”, racists of the open and closeted kind, flag waving shitheads, evangelicals, that asshole who runs a surf shop in my town who, unbeknownst to anyone save about ten people, is a Klansman on the side – there’s a lot of people I just won’t tolerate anymore.  Just will not, because the price for tolerating them has been far too high.  And I’m not alone.

    That unwillingness to go along in the name of national unity is going to cause some very serious political and interpersonal problems in the future.  And I’m fine with that.  I want those people gone, as in “living in some other country entirely”.  That attitude is a problem as well, and its one I share with many million of my fellow Dems. So be it.  I’m in the mood to cause some serious fucking problems for these people for the rest of my life until they either leave, or quit being shitheads.

  192. 192.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kraux Pas: I am convinced Biden is the opposite of a safe choice — too old, too much baggage, too same-old-same-old, etc., but if he’s what we’re stuck with, hell yes I will vote for him, and I implore you to do the same. SCOTUS, SCOTUS, SCOTUS!

  194. 194.

    Kraux Pas

    @Betty Cracker: My personal go-to balm for Biden anxiety is energy policy. Climate change seems way more threatening to me than a Republican dominated Supreme Court which is something we’ve had (checks Wikipedia) my entire living memory.

  195. 195.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Kraux Pas:

    Your justification is the courts.  Currently, Trump is even sending and getting even unqualified, hard-right judges pushed through the Senate.  It is going to be hard to do much for women, minorities, LGBT+, the environment, etc with judiciary made up of fanatic right-wingers.  Plus, Ginsberg isn’t getting any younger.

  196. 196.

    gene108

    @ola azul:

    Trayvon Martin began deservedly kicking George Zimmerman’s…….ass,

    Facts not in evidence.

    Trayvon was a skinny 17 year old. George was, at the time, a 27 year old grown man.

    27 y.o. me was much stronger than 17 y.o. me.

    Just as likely, or more likely, Zimmerman overpowered Trayvon.

  200. 200.

    gene108

    @Kraux Pas:

    It’s not the SCOTUS. They hear very few cases.

    It’s all the lower Federal courts, where a lot of decisions get made.

    The Flores ruling that says you can’t indefinitely lock-up migrant kids is from a lower court.  Never went to the SCOTUS.

    Right now 25% of the lower courts are Trump appointees.

    The other 75% are Reagan, Bush 1 & 2 appointees, and maybe a few living Carter appointees, as well as Clinton and Obama appointees.

    So it’s not like the balance 3/4 are all Democrats.

  201. 201.

    Mary G

    Get better soon, Ted:

    INBOX: Ted Lieu's chief of staff reveals that Lieu has been absent from the Capitol this week due to stent surgery, following chest pain earlier in the week. He'll be back next week.Update ends on a lighthearted note: pic.twitter.com/Ptx540QS5c— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) December 11, 2019

  202. 202.

    Kent

    @Kraux Pas: 

    @Betty Cracker: My personal go-to balm for Biden anxiety is energy policy. Climate change seems way more threatening to me than a Republican dominated Supreme Court which is something we’ve had (checks Wikipedia) my entire living memory.

    Climate change regulation of any kind is not going to happen under any president if a GOP-dominated SCOTUS dismantles the ability of the Federal government to actually regulate. Which is the direction they are going.

  204. 204.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @The Moar You Know:

    Those shitheads are literally half the country.  They aren’t going anywhere and it is unlikely they will change.  So, then what?  What is the alternative?  Violence, civil war, etc are not a reasonable option.

  205. 205.

    Roger Moore

    @Kraux Pas:

    Climate change seems way more threatening to me than a Republican dominated Supreme Court

    Part of the problem is that a Republican dominated Supreme Court makes everything else we want to accomplish, including dealing with climate change, more difficult, which is exactly why they’ve spent so much time and effort trying to achieve it.

  206. 206.

    ola azul

    @rikyrah:

    This, to me, is precisely correct.

    Biden is the majority of black voters’ “safe, electable” refuge until such time as, like Obama did in ’08, any other Dem candidate that ain’t Biden can prove, to the satisfaction of black voters, that white weathervanes are gonna putta ring onnit and are innit for the long haul. Cuz the penalties for being wrong ain’t theoretical or abstract; they is concrete and lasting.

    Obama winning Iowa (and Hillary placing third behind Edwards) turned over the apple cart of inevitability in ’08. If Biden performs poorly early, could see similar defections of black voter support for Biden.

  207. 207.

    Kraux Pas

    @Betty Cracker: Well, SCOTUS is beyond fixing in a reasonable time frame unless measures are taken with no recent precendent. Just be happy I have something to keep me pointed the right way.

     

    I do worry, though. I’ve voted a straight D ticket every election I’ve been eligible for except 02 and 04. If it’s this hard for me to reconcile a vote for Biden with myself, how’s itngoing to be for more marginal voters? I certainly wouldn’t see myself as able to convince anyone if I can barepy convince myself.

     

    I also want to point out that the only time we seem to win in recent decades is when we don’t nominate whoever the media says is the safe choice.

  209. 209.

    Another Scott

    @Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:

    Donnie and Moscow Mitch are picking the low-hanging fruit on the courts. It’s not hopeless.

    Repost – Brookings (from December 2018):

    […]

    There are plenty of potential future vacancies. Of the 167 circuit judges in active status in early December, 65 (by my count) are now eligible to leave active status under the rule of 80, and six more will be eligible by July 1, 2020. Of those 71, 40 are Democratic appointees. If all eligible Democratic appointees left active status and Trump filled all those vacancies, there would be a 136 Republican-appointee stronghold in the courts of appeals. To put this figure into perspective, after 12 years of Republican judicial appointments (1981-1993), President Clinton inherited only a 119-Republican-appointee majority.

    But being eligible to take senior status or retire and actually doing it are two different things. Indeed, of the 65 now eligible, 23 have been eligible for 20 years or more. It’s unlikely that many of them and many others already eligible will voluntarily depart active status in the next 18 months.

    Judges take senior status for a variety of reasons, including health and retaining a judicial salary with a reduced (or even no) workload. Judges retire under the rule of 80 because they tire of the work and can keep their judicial salary and, if so disposed, earn additional money from other employment, including, for example, as well-paid arbitrators or mediators.

    On the other hand, judges eschew senior status or retirement because they enjoy full-time judging or don’t want the current president to replace them, or both. Democratic appointees in recent years have been more inclined to leave active status with a Democrat in the White House than have Republican appointees during Republican administrations—and given President Trump’s potential to transform federal courts, liberal justices, especially those appointed by Democratic presidents, may be even less motivated to leave the bench. Table 2 shows the senior-status patterns of the 117 circuit judges currently now or soon to be in senior status.

    […]

    Given these patterns, and given the current environment and president, Democratic appointees seem unlikely to create many vacancies voluntarily over the next 18 months, and if they don’t, the party-of-appointing-president balance that Trump and his allies have achieved in his first two years may not look much different at the end of four years, and look similar to the 100-Republican-appointee majority that Obama inherited in 2009. Republican appointees may leave active status, but not at the pace of the last two years, limiting Trump’s ability to continue staffing the appellate courts with highly conservative appointees.

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  210. 210.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kraux Pas: That is exactly why I hope Biden isn’t the nominee and believe he is an extremely risky bet rather than the safe choice. I’m Team Broken Glass, but lots of voters aren’t, and I think a Biden candidacy would depress enthusiasm and turnout for a lot of constituencies we need to show up in 2020.

  211. 211.

    West of the Rockies

    @Felanius Kootea:

     

    Here’s where things get confusing.  You’re lamenting that we will not have a female or POC candidate.  Others here are saying “listen to black women” (which will give us ol’ Joe).

     

    I wanted an actual black woman to be our candidate, but that was not to be.  I’m a white male, so I guess I have the privilege of wanting to be inspired (as I was by Obama).  But if we go with pragmatism, we get a guy who thinks he can work with Republicans (like McTurtle and Gaetz and Gohmert).  That’s not terribly promising.

  212. 212.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Kraux Pas:

    I do have some sympathy for your dilemma, though.  That is how I feel about Sanders, and I know I am not alone in that.  If I have to vote for him, it will make me ill.  How could I convince anyone to vote for the guy if I am going to have to force myself to show up at the polls?

  214. 214.

    SFAW

    @Jay:

    almost like higher up people in the DOJ Administration are running some kinda interference play by making the DOJ chase after snipes, grumpkins and snarkles,…..

    I am shocked, SHOCKED I tells ya.

  215. 215.

    Cacti

    Where’s a thread on Horowtiz’s testimony?

    So far he’s said:  No evidence that Obama ordered an FBI investigation of Trump, and that the only evidence of leaks were from pro-Trump agents feeding info to Giuliani.

    So it turns out there was a deep state conspiracy.  Against Hillary Clinton.

  217. 217.

    Kraux Pas

    @rikyrah:

    White people proved that they couldn’t be trusted in 2016.

    THAT is what Biden is about.

    So, rather than nominate a candidate that will push hard on policies that will help people, we should tend to the feelings of white racists and nominate the person most like the people we’re voting against?

     

    And we wonder why the both sides narrative gains traction

     

    Eta: I remember something you said a while back that really bothered me about white liberals just being upset they dont have things better than our parents. I’d settle for less than half as good as my parents had it. If I could afford a modest place working two jobs and not be one setback away from having to pack up and go home…again…I’d be happy.

  218. 218.

    ola azul

    @gene108:

    Have you ever been in a fist-fight before?

    Your reasoning, while adhering to a rationale that could, I suppose, be generally more true than not, it in no way is the truism you seem to think it is.

    That, and in the words of Mike Tyson (paraphrase): Everyone’s always gotta plan to they get punched in the face.

    Substitute “plan” for “physical advantages” and apply any real-world experience you might have in this realm and the feebleness of what you’re saying is self-evident.

    That, and are you saying Zimmerman shot Martin *after* overpowering him? That makes sense how? If Z. could overpower Martin, he’d “need” to shoot him why, exactly?

  219. 219.

    Zzyzx

    @Betty Cracker: I think we’re back to wondering how much we’re like the general population. It’s hard to generalize from anyone but ourselves. I’m not enamored of Biden due to his age, but I’d have no problem voting for him, whereas Warren makes me a tad nervous due to her overpromising things that she’ll never be able to deliver.

  220. 220.

    SFAW

    @Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:

    How could I convince anyone to vote for the guy if I am going to have to force myself to show up at the polls?

    For all of Bernie’s myriad faults, and as much as I hate him for his bullshit in 2016, I’ll take him 12 times out of 10 over Trump. I’m a little  … annoyed, maybe? not sure … that I even have to write that.

    Or do you think this country will survive another four years of this crap?

  221. 221.

    germy

    COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) – A judge on Wednesday upheld the South Carolina Republican Party’s decision not to hold a 2020 presidential primary, a move taken by several states in erecting hurdles for the long-shot candidates challenging President Donald Trump.

    In her order, Circuit Judge Jocelyn Newman wrote the law “does not give Plaintiffs a legal right to a presidential preference primary, and the Court will not substitute its own judgment for that of the General Assembly or the SCGOP.”

  222. 222.

    Jay

    NEW: The IG report makes identity of at least one alleged Steele "sub-source" obvious—raising q's about the motivations for DOJ's declassification decisions.“I would LOVE a roadmap like this from the Russians or Chinese,” said one former intel official.https://t.co/nhWnyTDbyF— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) December 11, 2019

  223. 223.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Hildebrand: …or having someone announce that the election has been called while still standing in line (I’ve heard that one a lot about the 2016 election).

    In 2010, when MD was electing state officials & the state legislature, the GOP robocalled into heavily AA parts of Baltimore during the afternoon of Election Day: “The race has been called for the Democrats, you don’t need to go out & vote.” Confused people called Democratic Party HQ, which had the late Rep. Elijah Cummings record a brief counter-message & shot it out by phone to the affected areas, & the dirty trick had little to no effect.

    Those bastards will do this again & again & again, & we have to be ready to counter it quickly & effectively.

  224. 224.

    SFAW

    @Cacti:

    So it turns out there was a deep state conspiracy.  Against Hillary Clinton.

    Jeez, I wish I hadn’t used up all my “SHOCKED” in 214.

  225. 225.

    Jay

    @Cacti:

    I posted a tweet a couple of days ago, citing from the Horowitz Report that noted the only documented FBI bias, was pro-Trump.

     

    the only response to that was a couple of BJ ragebook Uncles and Aunties screaming “shut up Hoser!”.

    there’s a lot of things happening outside of the Treason Dumpster Fires and the Democratic Party Primary Campaigns that get washed out in all the angst.

  226. 226.

    Tall Tom

    Let’s look at the Electoral math for a bit in the upcoming general election.  From one site’s Crystal Ball:  http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-president/     Theoretical 2020 Electoral votes are Dem 248, Repub 248, Tossup 42, with Tossup states currently defined as AZ, PA, & WI.   From a strategy standpoint, wouldn’t you want your candidate who best performs against current occupant in those tossup states to be the nominee?   The idea here is how best to win the tossup states.  Biden currently outperforms current occupant in each of those states (better than other potential candidates in those states.)  Not that Joe is my choice, but he may be a better candidate from a high level viewpoint of Dem party victory.

  228. 228.

    Jay

    Uh, worse. The agent who hates Clinton and already labels her a “criminal” says that he would “volunteer” to work on a case against her foundation. Also, FBI agents expressing glee that people look scared bc Trump won and should “start looking for new jobs” is not a great look. https://t.co/nMXVTOyDVM— Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) December 11, 2019

  229. 229.

    VeniceRiley

    @VFX Lurker: I’m moving to Warren for essentially the same reason, unless some other non-Biden woman emagres in the head of the pack.

     

    As for 2008, my PUMA beef wasn’t about Hillary per se, but about voting rights.  I regard stripping 2 whole states of delegates as a voting rights violation so egregious that a Republican might as well have thought it up.  To me, voting rights are sacred. they are key, and not just for general elections.  For all elections!

  230. 230.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @guachi: And for everyone who says “listen to black voters” I guess that means we are not allowed to criticize Biden if he’s the nominee because if he does win it’ll be because of heavy support from black voters.

    Um, no, it means, “Listen to black voters even – especially! – if they’re saying something you don’t want to hear” – because you damned well need to hear it.

    The fundamental reasons for Biden’s strength among black voters are first, they trust him as a nationally prominent politician of long standing who was a faithful & supportive wingman & sidekick for Barack Obama. Second, they recognize that everything else hinges on removing Trump from the Presidency, and they believe that a nationally-recognized white male candidate is more likely to accomplish that.

    I don’t think Kamala Harris liked what she heard, but at least she heard it – & IIUC she reacted by attempting to discredit Biden in the minds of black voters, presuming that those votes would naturally come her way once he was out. It is at least arguable that instead she discredited her own campaign to the point where the $$$ dried up & she had to quit.

  231. 231.

    James E Powell

    @Baud:

    The big problem with Sanders in 2016 weren’t the Busters’ votes. It was that his messaging about Hillary reinforced Trump’s messaging about Hillary (and the media’s).

    This! This! A million times this!

    Sanders’s attacks on Clinton were personal and caustic. He continued them well after the nomination was out of his reach. And compare his conduct at the DNC with Clinton’s in 2008.

    What Sanders and his followers did not want to accept was that he was being promoted and protected by the press/media who were using him to attack the candidate they despised. This was similar to the press/media promotion of Bill Bradley in 2000.

  232. 232.

    The Moar You Know

    Tacoma?

    @Jay: San Diego.

    Those shitheads are literally half the country.  They aren’t going anywhere and it is unlikely they will change.  So, then what?  What is the alternative?  Violence, civil war, etc are not a reasonable option.

    @Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:  The old options are no longer options.  Not for women, people of color, people of a liberal bent, people who give a shit about others, people who would rather not be at the bottom rung of the economic ladder, people who take democracy seriously.  I could go on, you get where I’m going.  The old ways of doing things, and of dealing with our fellow citizens, are no longer options.  What replaces that, I do not know, but I do know this:  the norms are gone.  And making new ones is difficult, and people usually resist those new norms, sometimes but not usually to the point of violence.

    I know one thing.  America is not going to be a fun place to live for a long fucking time.  That’s one of the new norms.  Don’t like it?  Neither do I.

  234. 234.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I’m torn between thinking Biden has lost his fastball– to the extent he ever had one, and for a host of reasons he’s the candidate with the broadest coattails. He has the affection of non-online Dems and I’m guessing a lot of persuadables, a killer ad team, and I think an image of decency that would serve him well in a one-on-one with trump. If he can quit the thin-skinned overreactions and goofy shit like challenging people to push-up contests. And dragging James Eastland out of history’s rubbage heap, and….

  235. 235.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @SFAW:  I’ve said I’d vote for him a few times already.  I just said I’d have to force myself to do it, and it WILL make me ill.  If he is the nominee, I won’t donate or volunteer.  That would be a bridge too far.

    Honestly, the only thing Sanders would do of value is appoint decent people to the courts.  From a leadership perspective, I truly believe he would be a failed president, that he will energize the right and get nothing accomplished.  Plus, I think the next president is likely to end up on the bad side of the business cycle.  I think Sanders would flail through a recession and could even make things worse.

  236. 236.

    Jay

    I'm gonna circle back to this one to note the extraordinary DOJ claim that folks in "the upper echelons of American politics and society" support convicted criminal Paul Manafort as well as Greg Craig and Carter Page—and tried to pay Gates not to talk. Big hella yikes. https://t.co/qUu7rGhF2d— Gabriel Malor (@gabrielmalor) December 11, 2019

  237. 237.

    artem1s

    concerning the fickle Obama voter.  this is an actual conversation I had just last week

    College educated, teachers union, upper middle white woman with child on the spectrum who would be living in a ditch if not for ACA provisions against lifetime limits…not friend anymore: I’m Soooooo worried RGB is going to die
    me: OMG hope she lasts until after the impeachment LOL
    not friend anymore: never thought T would be so bad; but couldn’t bring myself to vote for Killary; Biden is the devil and the Dems are going to fix the election for him
    me: WTF are you bitching about the SCOTUS for? THX BTW for putting Kavanaught on bench
    not friend anymore: whinge, whinge, setting herself up to vote for Jill Stein or Wilmer again…I did all the research and my friends on FB and Fox assured me Killary is a corporate shill. MONSANTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (probably voted against Sherrod Brown too, also a corporate shill dontchaknow)
    me: W.T.everloving.F!!!!! you didn’t know Trump was going to be so bad? have you been living in a cave? no research required asshole.  you get Trump again. THX K Goodbye, friendship over.

    Seriously, these people are hiding everywhere and they are hopeless.  Don’t waste time trying to convert them.  Our best hope is to work on GOTV, end voter suppression where we can, and shame these assholes into staying home on election day. 

  238. 238.

    Jay

    @Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    I think Sanders would flail through a recession and could even make things worse.

    Hard to say, upthread it was pointed out that just giving poor people $500 a month, no strings attached, changed lives for the better, and that’s with out reporting on what the $500 spend, did rippling out into the community.

  239. 239.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    If a tendentious and probably corrupt crank like Glenn Greenwald can’t trust the “reporting” of a dim-witted, rage-addled partisan crank like Mollie Hemingway, I despair of what the internet is coming to!

    Mollie @ MZHemingway
    CNN, MSNBC Refuse To Air DOJ Inspector General Hearing Live
    Glenn Greenwald @ ggreenwald
    Any criticism or revelation of corruption on the part of the NSA, the FBI or DOJ would offend the bulk of their news staffs, which are now composed of ex-agents of those agencies, so suppressing all of these unpleasantries is almost like a matter of corporate etiquette #StateTV
    Chris Hayes @ chrislhayes
    MSNBC is literally taking it live. This seems like…an easy thing to check?
    Glenn Greenwald @ ggreenwald
    I was commenting on Mollie’s report and article, not reporting it myself. I assume Mollie didn’t make it up. Perhaps the network started showing it after she reported that they weren’t
    Chris Hayes @ chrislhayes
    Ok

    Is Hayes’ “OK” sarcastic, or is he just saying he gets what GG had to say? Is Hayes still keeping his eternal grad student’s mind open to Glenn?

  240. 240.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Jay:

    LOL.  Sure, if you could get it passed in the midst of a recession, with a non-Republican president, a ton of GOPers in the Senate, and a $2T deficit (estimating based on a current deficit of about a $1T and tax revenue falling sharply).  Good luck with that!  I’d have better odds of winning powerball.

  241. 241.

    catclub

    @Cacti:

    Where’s a thread on Horowtiz’s testimony?

    …

    So it turns out there was a deep state conspiracy.  Against Hillary Clinton.

    And he has not gotten around to getting a report out on that.

  245. 245.

    TomatoQueen

    @Amir Khalid:

    Steeplejack has dropped LauraToo at Dulles Airport (DC, We Run In Circles Like We Mean It) and is bringing Merlin to me. If he has a camera, or if someone else does, we’ll try to get something set up this afternoon.

  246. 246.

    rikyrah

    @TomatoQueen:

     

    Steeplejack has dropped LauraToo at Dulles Airport (DC, We Run In Circles Like We Mean It) and is bringing Merlin to me. If he has a camera, or if someone else does, we’ll try to get something set up this afternoon.

     

    EEEEEEKKK!!!

     

    YEAH!!!!!!!

  247. 247.

    Professor Bigfoot

    @Betty Cracker:  Unca Joe wasn’t in my top five.  He’s still not my favorite.

    But I’m goddamned if I’m going to diss the vast majority of black voters by telling them that they’re stupid for choosing him.

    (not saying you would ever say that, Betty– but it’s the kind of shit that made me kill my FB account…)

  249. 249.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Roger Moore: Hard to imagine how I missed that on its first run, especially in light of

    Plot Keywords: breasts | sex | female frontal nudity | female nudity | nudity | See All (52)

  250. 250.

    VFX Lurker

    @VeniceRiley: I’m moving to Warren for essentially the same reason, unless some other non-Biden woman emagres in the head of the pack.

    FiveThirtyEight’s California section has Biden leading in California with Warren a close second and Wilmer in third. I’ll wait for the outcomes in IA, NH, SC and NV before mailing in my ballot.

  251. 251.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Jay:

    You can use an EO to change rules, but not to do stuff that requires a lot of money from Congress.  That HAS to happen via legislation, which is why I mentioned the Senate.

    I agree that austerity makes recessions worse.  That wasn’t the topic of discussion.

    The topic of discussion is how I think Sanders would lead us through a recession, and my answer is still really badly.  I think he would be a disaster because he is utterly inflexible and doesn’t listen to anyone but himself.  (Full disclosure:  Trump is a terrible leader and would be a disaster in a recession as well.)

  252. 252.

    'IN

    @VeniceRiley:

     

    I regard stripping 2 whole states of delegates as a voting rights violation so egregious that a Republican might as well have thought it up. To me, voting rights are sacred. they are key, and not just for general elections. For all elections!

    Ordinarily I would totally agree with you… but IIRC [it was a long time ago and my memory, while good, isn’t perfect, imagine that!] two states broke very public rules, which is how their delegates were stripped of their seats at the Democratic National Convention. It wasn’t a quixotic overbearing central committee arbitrarily messing with peoples’ votes. Those state broke the rules and the stated punishment for breaking the rules was having the elected improperly delegates losing their seats.

    Now people are fussing about candidates getting to be in the debates. But those rules were set up years ago… if you didn’t want to follow the rules already laid down years ago, then don’t run. I’m not crazy about the rules — I think Rule 1 should be, if you want to run for President on the Democratic ticket, JOIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY 4 YEARS BEFORE THE ELECTION YOU WANT TO RUN IN !!!!

    But the not-too-honorable Senator Sanders won’t sink that low. He’s already filed to run for Senate again BUT NOT AS A DEMOCRAT still, again !! If I was chairman of the DNC Sanders would be in jail for trespassing if he showed up at a Democratic debate… but I’m not. So SAD!

  253. 253.

    J R in WV

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    @VeniceRiley:

    I regard stripping 2 whole states of delegates as a voting rights violation so egregious that a Republican might as well have thought it up. To me, voting rights are sacred. they are key, and not just for general elections. For all elections!

    Ordinarily I would totally agree with you… but IIRC [it was a long time ago and my memory, while good, isn’t perfect, imagine that!] two states broke very public rules, which is how their delegates were stripped of their seats at the Democratic National Convention. It wasn’t a quixotic overbearing central committee arbitrarily “stripping” peoples’ votes. Those state broke the rules and the stated punishment for breaking the rules was having the elected improperly delegates losing their seats.

    Now people are fussing about candidates getting to be in the debates. But those rules were set up years ago… if you didn’t want to follow the rules already laid down years ago, then don’t run. I’m not crazy about the rules — I think Rule 1 should be, if you want to run for President on the Democratic ticket, JOIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY 4 YEARS BEFORE THE ELECTION YOU WANT TO RUN IN !!!!

    But the not-too-honorable Senator Sanders won’t sink that low. He’s already filed to run for Senate again BUT NOT AS A DEMOCRAT still, again !! If I was chairman of the DNC Sanders would be in jail for trespassing if he showed up at a Democratic debate… but I’m not. So SAD!

    V R, no offense, just disagree with your take off point!

    I hosed my Nym, and so am reposting the comment after fixing it. Moderators, don’t bother to reclaim the moderatged post. Thanks!

  255. 255.

    ola azul

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    To put it in your milieu: No. Wrong. You don’t know.

    And neither do I. No one does definitively (tho there was a witness who IDed Trayvon as on top of Z. and punching him).

    Ain’t saying Trayvon did anything wrong. He didn’t. Not the point. Whether Trayvon did “nothing” as you say, or whether he fought with pig-Zimmerman, Trayvon did nothing wrong. If someone was stalking me, then confronted me and I didn’t see a way out, I’d try’n kick his ass, too, if I could.

    But if you visit the wiki site: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Trayvon_Martin

    and scroll down far enough to see the pig Zimmerman’s face and back of his head, I would maintain them two fought.

    Now, you can say you disagree, n that’s fine. But to say “No. Wrong.” like you know is just no, wrong.

  256. 256.

    Mnemosyne

    @Kraux Pas:

    Yep. Because minority voters don’t trust white Democrats to vote for anything even slightly more outré, and that’s the sad truth.

  257. 257.

    Jinchi

    @schrodingers_cat: So your insinuation that we didn’t know WTF we were doing is insulting.

    I wasn’t insinuating anything of the sort. I was agreeing that going door-to-door is a hard slog. You were the one who compared it to an exercise in futility.

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