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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Breaking: The US Has Struck Against the Iranian Militia In Iraq Killing Both Ktaib Hezbullah’s Leader and Quds Force Commanding General Qassem Suleimani

Breaking: The US Has Struck Against the Iranian Militia In Iraq Killing Both Ktaib Hezbullah’s Leader and Quds Force Commanding General Qassem Suleimani

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I cannot emphasize enough how significant this is! Major General Suleimani was not just Iran’s point man in Iraq, he was also coordinating Iran’s proxy forces in Syria and Lebanon. When Suleimani arrived in Syria in 2013 he took control of the theater on behalf of Iran, its Syrian client Assad, and Assad’s other benefactor Putin, which is what initially turned around the fortunes of Assad’s forces. Suleimani was, arguably, the best strategist in the region who was native to the Middle East. Dexter Filkins wrote a long profile of him in 2013 for The New Yorker.

Reuters is now reporting that the US is responsible for the strike that killed Suleimani and Muhandis.

What we don’t know yet, what we will not know until they inform us through their actual response, is what the response from Iran will be. For that we have to wait.

Update at 8:50 PM EST

As I’ve now had a bit of time to digest the news, here’s a bit more developed initial analysis:

My initial take regarding the killing of Suleimani is that this decapitates Iran’s capabilities in the Twelver Shi’a sphere of influence they were trying to build from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon in the short term. Suleimani was their theater commander, specifically coordinating the proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It is also my professional opinion that he was the best strategist in the region who was native to the region. So a major blow to Iran’s, as well as their proxies, immediate capability. Suleimani was also very powerful back in Iran. There were mutterings he might succeed Khameini as Supreme Leader despite not being an ayatollah.

This strike will also enrage the Iranians and provide the Iranian government with an internal opening for influence and propaganda to rally support for the Iranian state among a domestic Iranian population that may be wavering. So it will likely retard reform in general and attempts at democratization in specific in the short to medium term. Especially if there is immediate Iranian response and/or escalation to today’s attack and a US response to Iran’s actions that can be used by the Iranian government to reinforce its standing with the Iranian people.

Finally, I don’t see why anyone in the Iranian government would talk to anyone in the US government at this point while the current administration is in place. The President, his senior officials, and surrogates have made it clear that they really aren’t interested in talking. Last week Putin announced  that he’s not going to go along with the sanctions regime against Iran any longer, which further reinforces to Iran that they don’t need to talk to us as they have Putin to leverage as a patron. I also expect that Iran will sell their oil to the Chinese because Xi could care less about our sanctions. There is no way to squeeze the Iranians economically as the government is impervious to the pain and has ways to sell its oil to ease that pain. You can find my take on why making war in Iran would be strategic malpractice unless we were prepared for total war and even then it isn’t a good idea at West Point’s Modern War Institute.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

313Comments

  1. 1.

    Roger Moore

    What we don’t know yet, what we will not know until they inform us through their actual response, is what the response from Iran will be.

    I’m gonna go way out on a limb here and predict we won’t like it.

  4. 4.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Washington Post is saying that the perpetrator of the strike has not been confirmed. It could also be Israel.

    Everything is still in flux, but it does look like Soleimani has been killed.

    Whoever is responsible, this will not improve US relations with Iran. Expect retaliation in terrorist attacks against military bases and embassies.

  5. 5.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Iraqi state TV is reporting the “martyrdom” of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Mohandis on the Baghdad airport road.

    So… is that phrasing from the official government media organization as troubling as it seems to me?

  8. 8.

    Renie

    We all know GOP has been jonesing for a war with Iran for decades.  And if it comes we have the worse possible admin to handle this.

  14. 14.

    Roger Moore

    @zhena gogolia:

    So we’re going to get war with Iran that will assure Trump’s re-election.

    I predict there will be very little “rally around the flag” benefit for Trump.  He’s too polarizing, and this is clearly happening because he wants a war, not because it’s in the country’s best interests.

  15. 15.

    James E Powell

    So is today the day that Trump became president? Who will be the first Villager to say so?

  18. 18.

    Baud

    @Roger Moore:

    I agree.  Plus, unlike W, who had the veneer of competent people around him, I don’t think many people other than his die-hard base would trust him to lead a war.  My 2 cents.

  19. 19.

    Kamala.Harris.2020

    @James E Powell:

    Start the countdown to when we get to see  Trump waddle across the deck of aircraft carrier in a flight suit under a Mission Accomplished banner.

  20. 20.

    Mike J

    If Iran were to assassinate an American, who would be comparable?

    And does anybody think that would put the US in its place, make them sit down and stop causing trouble?

  21. 21.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Roger Moore: also, for all the ‘take the oil’ and ‘fire and fury’ bluster, his isolationism, his lies about having opposed the Iraq War, was a key factor in his 2016 support, and there’s no doubt in my mind that, among the thousand cuts that cost her WI, MI and PA, supporting the Iraq War was one of HRC’s most significant wounds

    that said, if anyone can blunder into war in spite of himself, it’s trump

  22. 22.

    scottinnj

    Cui Bono?  Seems like it would be more benefit to Netanyahu in his election in a few weeks than DJT. Doesn’t preclude Netnyahu talking Trump into it…

  23. 23.

    anarchoRex

    Serious question: is it legal for us to bomb targets in Iraq without their permission?

  24. 24.

    Renie

    @Mike J:  I would think it would be on the level of assassinating General Mark Milley. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff but I’m sure Adam knows.

  26. 26.

    Sam

    This will lead to undeclared war between Iran and the Sunnis in the Gulf.  Iranians are smart.  They will attack the weak links.  Not saying we won’t have militia attacks on us forces, but the ones that hurt most  will be attacks on Persian gulf oil, and there will be lots of those.

  29. 29.

    Mart

    I cannot emphasize enough how significant this is!

    Finally, just one or two more Friedman Units and we’ve won this endless war.

  31. 31.

    zhena gogolia

    It would be nice right around now to have a president of the United States whom you could assume makes important foreign policy decisions on the basis of thoughtful consideration of America’s national interest, and not impulses based on perceptions of his personal self-interest.— George Conway (@gtconway3d) January 3, 2020

  32. 32.

    RaflW

    @zhena gogolia:

    So we’re going to get war with Iran. I’m not sure the latter will follow. He’s a disastrous incompetent, an egomaniac, and surrounded by fools, idiots, and ne’er do wells. So how dog-waggy this ends up is quite murky.

    No matter what, this situation is not good for regional or possibility global stability. And probably not good for our overtaxed troops. (Have folks noticed that 50% of the military is unhappy with Trump?)

  33. 33.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @zhena gogolia:

    I don’t think the “Rally Round the Flag effect” works anymore. The people who hate Trump (which is a solid majority) are not going to suddenly change their minds because we attacked Iran. I doubt this will work even with indies, who tend to lean Democratic as well.

    Trump will find some way to bungle the PR of this, I have no doubt

  34. 34.

    Gozer

    Not linking to it, but the Trump war room Twitter is accusing former Obama admin folks of Logan Act violations. The tweet is based on some random opinion piece off of Fox News. Rich considering what those motherfuckers did in 2016 re: Russia.

  35. 35.

    WaterGirl

    @RaflW: That may be the only good political news I’ve seen all day.

    edit: Just to be clear, I am referring to 50% of the military not approving of Trump, not this assassination.

  36. 36.

    lamh36

    @ChrisMurphyCT
    Soleimani was an enemy of the United States. That’s not a question.

    The question is this – as reports suggest, did America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization, the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a potential massive regional war?

    7:49 PM – 2 Jan 2020

  39. 39.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Mike J: I’d guess (back in the day) Gen. Petraeus.  And yeah, if -Iran- had assassinated Gen. Petraeus (or, heck, -any- US officer of any rank) we’d be throwing a massive conniption-fit.  Fuck, we’re so damn stupid.

  41. 41.

    Mike in DC

    Hope those anti-missile systems in KSA work really well, because Iran’s going to take out every refinery in range.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    I just added the following update up top:

    My initial take regarding the killing of Suleimani is that this decapitates Iran’s capabilities in the Twelver Shi’a sphere of influence they were trying to build from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon in the short term. Suleimani was their theater commander, specifically coordinating the proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It is also my professional opinion that he was the best strategist in the region who was native to the region. So a major blow to Iran’s, as well as their proxies, immediate capability. Suleimani was also very powerful back in Iran. There were mutterings he might succeed Khameini as Supreme Leader despite not being an ayatollah.

    This strike will also enrage the Iranians and provide the Iranian government with an internal opening for influence and propaganda to rally support for the Iranian state among a domestic Iranian population that may be wavering. So it will likely retard reform in general and attempts at democratization in specific in the short to medium term. Especially if there is immediate Iranian response and/or escalation to today’s attack and a US response to Iran’s actions that can be used by the Iranian government to reinforce its standing with the Iranian people.

    Finally, I don’t see why anyone in the Iranian government would talk to anyone in the US government at this point while the current administration is in place. The President, his senior officials, and surrogates have made it clear that they really aren’t interested in talking. Last week Putin announced  that he’s not going to go along with the sanctions regime against Iran any longer, which further reinforces to Iran that they don’t need to talk to us as they have Putin to leverage as a patron. I also expect that Iran will sell their oil to the Chinese because Xi could care less about our sanctions. There is no way to squeeze the Iranians economically as the government is impervious to the pain and has ways to sell its oil to ease that pain. You can find my take on why making war in Iran would be strategic malpractice unless we were prepared for total war and even then it isn’t a good idea at West Point’s Modern War Institute.

  47. 47.

    Rob

    From Twitter:

    Chris Murphy

    @ChrisMurphyCT

    Soleimani was an enemy of the United States. That’s not a question. The question is this – as reports suggest, did America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization, the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a potential massive regional war?

  51. 51.

    Rob

    oops, a typo in my email, corrected now

     

    From Twitter:

    Chris Murphy

    @ChrisMurphyCT

    Soleimani was an enemy of the United States. That’s not a question. The question is this – as reports suggest, did America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization, the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a potential massive regional war?

  52. 52.

    Rob

    My first comment

     

    This is freaking serious. aljazeera.com/live/ has broken into their regular coverage to cover this story and I am finding it quite informative.

     

    I have over half a tank in my Honda Civic and might fill it up tomorrow.

  57. 57.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mike J: @Renie: It would be more like killing either our theater commanding general (my former boss) or the JSOC commanding general as that is the closest American equivalent to what the Quds Force is. Suleimani was the commanding general of the Quds Force, but he was also the Iranian theater commander for operations in the Levant.

  59. 59.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    It occurs to me that both Giuliani and Gingrich are both MEK lobbyists and members of trump’s kitchen (or cell phone) cabinet. Would they have been pushing for something like this? Does MEK tell neocons that the Iranian people are desperate for regime change? Is Pompeo– probably the most influential voice in trump’s ear on FP– in the camp that thinks regime change in Iran will be a cakewalk? Is Richard Perle still alive? Is trump calling John Bolton from the residence?

  68. 68.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @lamh36:

    Iranian sources in Iran are warning that killing Gen. Qasem Sulaimani spells war.
    “Official reaction will begin with a strike,” one says.

    Oh fuck. This means WW3, doesn’t it? Iran is a client state of Russia’s, isn’t it? That arrogant asshole Putin thought he could control and ride the Trumpian tiger, but now potentially he along with everyone else on the planet is going to find out what happens after he gets thrown off

  71. 71.

    Mike in DC

    @Matt McIrvin: In a worst case scenario, all out war in the region could take 20 million barrels per day offline for weeks or even months.  Nobody has enough control over spot prices to offset that kind of supply hit.

  72. 72.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: This shows us a couple of things. The first is that the Iranians thought they could operate with impunity in Iraq. The second is that someone in the US chain of command decided to remind them that “we own the night!”.

  74. 74.

    lamh36

    @swin245m5 minutes ago

    More

    Before the president or administration has publicly confirmed that Soleimani is in fact dead, various Trump campaign officials are already doing victory laps on killing Soleimani on twitter

    Don’t follow Trumpworld on any SM…but I’m sure some of ya’ll might?  Anyone else seeing any victory laps before WH officially comments?

  75. 75.

    Cheryl Rofer

    The people of Iraq and Iran have been protesting their governments. If the US did the strike, they have now empowered those governments. And the people will suffer. This will affect US relations in the Middle East for generations. Worse than the 1953 coup.

  76. 76.

    Mike in NC

    Two whole days into the new year and this shit goes down. What next, air strikes on North Korea for Valentines Day (suck it, Little Rocketman)?

  77. 77.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: No. Suleimani was the theater commander coordinating everything within the Levantine theater for Iran. This includes running the proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. By taking out Suleimani, the leader of the largest and most effective Iraqi proxy (Ktaib Hezbullah’s Mohandis), and taking out one of the top two or three people in Lebanese (OG) Hezbullah means you’ve functionally decapitated the leadership of Iran’s low intensity warfare network in the region.

  79. 79.

    lamh36

    Adam, I saw someone say this is comparable to the assassination of Saddam Hussein, i.e.  yes he had blood on his hands, but assassinating him was one of the most reckless acts of US-Iraq relations.

     

    Would you agree with that?

  80. 80.

    Evil_Paul

    So serious question:  This is an act of war, right?

    There are no open hostilities between Iran and the US, and Iraq is allegedly a US ally that is already mad about a previous air strike in their country.

    So did the US just carry out an open act of war that also served to humiliate an ostensible ally?

    I mean, at least Dubya has that BS UN resolution as justification. What the f**k is this?  Who thought this was a good idea?

  84. 84.

    Roger Moore

    @Adam L Silverman:

    It would be more like killing either our theater commanding general (my former boss) or the JSOC commanding general as that is the closest American equivalent to what the Quds Force is.

    In terms of his military role, yes, but he was also a big deal domestically in a way that no American general is today.  There’s no real comparison because our military is under much tighter civilian control.

  86. 86.

    Martin

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): 
    Unlikely. I trust Adam here that it’s bad, but Iran blusters almost as much as Trump does. Yeah, they’ll likely retaliate, but it’s really up to us to go to war. Iran can’t reach us to any degree. Would we act if they attacked SA? Maybe. What about Israel? More likely. Is Iran willing to openly do that?

    As hard as it is for us to game out what Iran might do, it’s 10x harder to game out what Trump might do. There’s a reason Kremlinology was a thing for the CIA – unpredictable strongmen are unpredictable.

  90. 90.

    Roger Moore

    @Mike in DC:

    In a worst case scenario, all out war in the region could take 20 million barrels per day offline for weeks or even months.

    If you damage the port facilities badly enough, it could stay off-line for years.

  91. 91.

    debbie

    I need cheering up after reading this thread. I’ll just go back to binging the first season of Handmaid’s Tale.  //  ?

  93. 93.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Just wildly speculating here.

    I can imagine Trump, or Netanyahu, or both, getting information that the Hezbullah leadership would be in Baghdad. I can imagine Trump comparing himself to Obama and his strike on Osama bin Laden. After all, Trump took out Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and NOBODY PRAISED HIM FOR IT. So here’s another chance: end Hezbullah and be a hero. /end speculation

    A strategic leader doesn’t necessarily take every opportunity like this that presents itself. A strategic leader thinks out beyond a single act. Sometimes the likely consequences of that act are too damaging.

  94. 94.

    sdhays

    This smacks of equal parts wag-the-dog and President Liddle-Dick needing to feel like he’s dominating someone since Nancy Pelosi has taken up residence in his empty noggin. Part of Dump’s “appeal” during the campaign was his (stupid, disingenuous, lying) critique of W’s Iraq adventure. I think some of those Republicans in the ~13% above the crazification factor propping up his horrible approval numbers aren’t going to be thrilled by a Dump adventure in Iraq and Iran.

  95. 95.

    lamh36

    @AdotSad 4m4 minutes ago

    More

    AdotSad Retweeted Palpatine Fucked

    We’re like 1 hour away from Dems passively asking Trump why he didn’t come to Congress first and Republicans responding by saying you hate America. Just wait for it.

  96. 96.

    Another Scott

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Oh fuck. This means WW3, doesn’t it?

    No, it doesn’t.

    Iran will respond, we know that for a fact. But they know that there is a heavy mismatch in capabilities vs the US. So, they will respond in ways that are most advantageous to them. Ways that may have semi-plausible deniability.

    It’s a dangerous escalation, no doubt.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  98. 98.

    Butter Emails

    @Adam L Silverman:

    1. Killing Suleimani seems a bit more than the equivalent of killing your old boss. Seems more like the equivalent of killing a theater commander who was also highly regarded as a genuine war hero.

    2.Suleimani also seems fairly competent. I find it difficult to believe that he’s organized his command in such a manner that it collapses into dust upon his removal.

  99. 99.

    cain

    @Cheryl Rofer: The people of Iraq and Iran have been protesting their governments. If the US did the strike, they have now empowered those governments. And the people will suffer. This will affect US relations in the Middle East for generations. Worse than the 1953 coup.

    Do you really think so? I’m interested to see how Egypt and the others respond to this. I was under the impression that just about everyone to be against Iran.  I would think that with that power vacuum now Turkey and others will rush in as Iran influence wanes?

  101. 101.

    lamh36

    @Cheryl Rofer: the fact that there is still NO statement from the WH on this is a tell…smh.

    Not only dont they know what to say, but likely TPTB ain’t even know what Chump authorized

  102. 102.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @lamh36:

    We’re like 1 hour away from Dems passively asking Trump why he didn’t come to Congress first

    I hate this kind of shit. What does this person want Dems to do? Order the Marshall of House to seize trump and cast him into the dungeons?

    Focus people. Fight the real enemy.

  103. 103.

    Another Scott

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Al Jazeera (from October, 2019):

    A senior Iranian official said Tehran has foiled a plot by Israeli and Arab spy agencies to assassinate Major General Qassem Soleimani, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

    State-run media on Thursday quoted Hossein Taeb, IRGC’s intelligence chief, as saying that “three terrorists” had been arrested before they could attack Soleimani.

    The suspects had plotted to kill Soleimani during the Ashoura religious commemorations on September 9 and 10, according to Taeb.

    They sought to buy a property near a mosque built by Soleimani’s father in the city of Kerman, dig a tunnel underneath the site and rig it with “350 to 500 kilogrammes of explosives”, he said.

    READ MORE
    Iran sentences man to death for spying for US: Report
    The team planned to “blow up the entire place” as soon as Soleimani entered the mosque for Shia mourning ceremony.

    Taeb said the suspects “went to a neighbouring country” and “large sums of money were spent to train and prepare them” to carry out the attack.

    The assassination plot was orchestrated “by Arab-Israeli secret services and had been decided a few years ago”, he added.

    Taeb did not name the Arab countries allegedly involved in the plan.

    It was not possible to independently verify the events described by the Iranian media.

    […]

    I would be very, very surprised if Iran were not thinking a few moves ahead if/when such an assassination were to be successful.

    Donnie’s cowboys are so incredibly stupid.

    Grrr….

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  105. 105.

    Raven Onthill

    I suppose now we have to think about the possibility that McConnell will refuse to try Trump because he is a wartime leader. We also have to think about canceled elections.

    Does anyone believe Trump wouldn’t start a war if it meant he could stay President?

    What do people think about the various Democratic candidates as wartime Presidents? Off the top of my head, the only one with significant foreign policy experience is Biden.

    Oh, gods, I hope they don’t bring back Kissinger. But I suspect he’s not hawkish enough for the right-wingers.

  106. 106.

    ema

    @Adam L Silverman:

    This shows us a couple of things. The first is that the Iranians thought they could operate with impunity in Iraq. The second is that someone in the US chain of command decided to remind them that “we own the night!”.

     

    So, is it possible this was a mostly military decision and, as per their assessment, this would benefit us somehow?

  109. 109.

    Captain C

    @Roger Moore: Perhaps, to use a historical example, like Eisenhower in the early ‘50s while his name was beginning to be bandied about as a Presidential candidate?

  110. 110.

    cain

    @Another Scott: Iran will respond, we know that for a fact. But they know that there is a heavy mismatch in capabilities vs the US. So, they will respond in ways that are most advantageous to them. Ways that may have semi-plausible deniability.

    Yes, there won’t be a direct war, it will be through some proxies. They also know that our president can be easily manipulated. It will be some shit that will go down that they can’t point to Iran at all and Trump will not be able to use it.

    With Trump surrounded by fools, he wont’ even know what’s coming, they will manipulate him against his own generals, that I can see.

  117. 117.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @lamh36:

    the fact that there is still NO statement from the WH on this is a tell…smh.

    Not only dont they know what to say, but likely TPTB ain’t even know what Chump authorized

    I was just thinking something like this. Or it could be Israel, and, as you say, not many people in the US government knew.

    We’re just gonna have to wait and see.

  119. 119.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Adam L Silverman: still alive, or MEK lobbyists? I actually didn’t know about Lieberman, but that’s about as surprising as the sun rising in the east, I guess. Dean’s shift on FP, from the original anti-war candidate to fellow traveller of Newton Leroy and John Bolton, had been kind of below-the-radar. Comforts me in my longtime skepticism of him.

  121. 121.

    Captain C

    Also, Adam, weren’t you saying something about cooler heads earlier? Regardless of how awful a character Suleimani was, openly bumping him off like this seems like a stupid idea even if you have the plans and preparation to deal with the consequences; with the current crew of impulsive, clueless grifters who couldn’t win a marshmallow fight, well, this could get ugly quick.

  123. 123.

    Roger Moore

    @ema:

    So, is it possible this was a mostly military decision and, as per their assessment, this would benefit us somehow?

    I would not expect the military to pull off something like this without getting the go ahead from the President.  If they did it on their own hook, that’s still on Trump for letting them.  The buck always stops at the top.

  124. 124.

    Adam L Silverman

    @lamh36: We didn’t assassinate Saddam Hussein. We pulled him out of a hiding hole, turned him over to the Government of Iraq, jointly interrogated him, then they tried him, convicted him, and hanged him. Did the person mean Qaddafi?

  126. 126.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Evil_Paul: Both Suleimani and Mohandis are on the US terrorist designee list. So the official position is that this is covered under the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force.

  127. 127.

    lamh36

    @michaeldweiss3m3 minutes ago

    More

    Michael Weiss Retweeted Michael Weiss

    And yes there’s still the possibility that the op was to kill Muhandes or a lower-level Hashd figure and the US and its partners didn’t reckon on Soleimani being in the car or convoy. But that would constitute a colossal (and by no means unprecedented) intel fuckup.

    What do you think Adam?  Could this be a colossal fuck up?
    I mean isn’t Chump is still at Mar-A-Lago…so not surrounded by staffers.  We arleady know how reckless he is when not surrounded by staffers.

  130. 130.

    lamh36

    @Adam L Silverman: Yeah, maybe they meant Quadaffi.  that’s makes more sense.

    I think though they were trying to say, that yes this guy has blood on his hands, but the “assassiation” is as bad for relations in the regions as the death of Hussein?

  131. 131.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    “Hillary Clinton is more dangerous than Donald Trump; we’ll be in Iran In two seconds, it frightens me.”

    ~ Susan Sarandon

  133. 133.

    Roger Moore

    @Captain C:

    Perhaps, to use a historical example, like Eisenhower in the early ‘50s while his name was beginning to be bandied about as a Presidential candidate?

    I would say the late 1940s, when he hadn’t yet retired but was still being mentioned as a candidate.  Perhaps a better comparison would be Grant during the Johnson administration.  He was already a presidential candidate, and his role in Reconstruction made him very important domestically.

  134. 134.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Cheryl Rofer: good god

    before he shuts down for the night, he’ll say something about this being much bigger than the killing of OBL, by the time he waddles down to the office for lunch and Tivo, he’ll be whining about not getting credit for having killed a “much more dangerous guy” than Obama did

  135. 135.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Like what Adam said

  136. 136.

    Aleta

    NYT 9:30

    Iranian and American officials have not confirmed the death of General Suleimani, and it was unclear who carried out the strike.

    Iraqi and Lebanese television reported his death, which was confirmed by senior militia leader in Iraq.

     

    REUTERS, 9:35

    Iran’s Soleimani and Iraq’s Muhandis killed in U.S. air strike:  (Iraqi) militia spokesman

    “The American and Israeli enemy is responsible for killing the mujahideen Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Qassem Soleimani,” said Ahmed al-Assadi, a spokesman for Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces umbrella grouping of Iran-backed militias.

    U.S. officials told Reuters that strikes had been carried out against two targets linked to Iran in Baghdad.

    The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to give any further details.

     

     

    WaPo 8:30

    Senior Iranian, Iraqi commanders killed in Baghdad airstrike – Iraqi state TV

    It was not clear who carried out the strike at Baghdad Airport, but the death of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most revered military leaders, seems certain to send tensions soaring between the United States and Iran.

    An airstrike near the Baghdad airport has killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and another senior Iranian-linked figure in Baghdad, Iraqi state television reported Thursday.

    No one immediately asserted responsibility for the strike, which Iraqi television said also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia commander.

  139. 139.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: Capturing/killing Suleimani isn’t the problem. The problem is that we did this very overtly. Now it may be that we had time sensitive intel and we had to act ASAP and there weren’t enough Theater Special Operations Command elements to allow this to be a covert SOF op. But that would have been the way to go. Quiet, surgical, deniable. Let everyone assume, but be able to prove nothing. Doing it this way, this overtly, is going to cause serious negative second, third, and fourth order effects no matter what the positive effects might be.

  140. 140.

    ema

    @Roger Moore:

    Agreed. But he’s so easily manipulated, it would be very easy for military commanders/foreign leaders to maneuver him into approving whatever they deemed was necessary for our/their interest.

  143. 143.

    Butter Emails

    @Adam L Silverman:

    No point in doing it secretly unless it was done without the knowledge of the President and this Administration. There’s no way they would have been able to resist spiking the football, so what’s the point of a covert op?

  146. 146.

    Martin

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I wonder what the limits are on the AUMF. If we had employed a drone strike against them in Germany, while killing some German national on that list, I can’t imagine we’d just wave that off as ‘ok, we decided it was fine to drone someone in Hamburg’.

  147. 147.

    PJ

    @Adam L Silverman: if Trump did authorize this assassination, it would make sense that he would insist that it be done in the flashiest way possible so that he could crow about it more.  I wonder what he told Putin in their most recent conversation (and what Pompeo was discussing in Moscow).

  149. 149.

    Evil_Paul

    @Adam L Silverman: Okay that’s good to know. I suppose that might qualify (barely) as a fig leaf. Still, this is playing with fire. The US might win the war eventually, but right now my understanding is that there’s a bunch of smaller bases and FOBs through Iraq that may be vulnerable.

    Gah. Got to stop myself from speculating too much. Not enough information.

  150. 150.

    lamh36

    @Tom_Winter54s55 seconds ago

    More

    FLASH: The U.S. Department of Defense says that President Trump directed a military strike against Qasem Soleimani and that he was killed. @MoshehNBC reports.

    @kaitlancollins

    More

    Kaitlan Collins Retweeted Kaitlan Collins

    “At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.”

    https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1212929044167188480

  151. 151.

    Kent

    @Cheryl Rofer:Whoever is responsible, this will not improve US relations with Iran. Expect retaliation in terrorist attacks against military bases and embassies.

    I would rather expect a lot of strikes against the interests of US allies in the region.  Like, for example, the drone attack that took out the Saudi oil facilities last year.  Take out a US embassy somewhere and you are pretty much guaranteeing massive retaliation from the US.  But are Americans going to get all hot and bothered and ring the bells for war if foreign-flagged tankers get attacked in the Emirates or some such place?  I doubt it.

  153. 153.

    Fair Economist

    The smart move for Iran would be to use this diplomatically. They could probably get the US thrown out of Iraq and sanctions lifted using this if they played their cards right.

  154. 154.

    Eolirin

    The Iranians were on the brink of having functional nuclear weapons. How long before they get them now?

  157. 157.

    jl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Haven’t read all the comments yet, but unless I have my acronyms mixed up, the PMU is same as PMF, Popular Mobilization Forces/Units.

    IIRC, the PMU is recognized as legit military organization by Iraq. So the US in their recent attack, and this assassination, whoever did it, is an attack on iraq’s government as well as Iran. That the PMU/PMF gets funding from Iran and other sources that the Trump administration doesn’t like doesn’t change that fact.

    If serious retaliation, or God forbid war, breaks out it’s not going to be be only US vs Iran, it will also cause serious instability inside Iraq too. In worst case scenario, increase in US forces in Iraq to take one side of civil war to keep Iraqi factions aligned with Iran at bay.

    This is potential disaster. If US responsible, hard to explain other than depraved and moronic action of a corrupt and moronic executive branch led by Trump.

    Edit: hope a kind commenter will let me know if I got some facts wrong. Corporate media has not been reporting full status of PMF/PMU forces, it seems to me. Some corrupt hawks whisper in corrupt and incompetent and lazy media news celebs that the PMF/PMU get Iranian funding and that is all those corporate media hacks need to know.

  159. 159.

    Kent

    @debbie:I can’t imagine Trump ordering anything that would upset Putin like this will.

    Russia is an oil and gas exporter, mostly over-land to Europe via pipelines.  They will profit immensely by a Persian Gulf war that collapses oil production in the Gulf and ties down the US military in an unwinnable land war in Asia.   And further serves to splinter US alliances with European and Asian countries that depend on Gulf oil.

    After oil, the next biggest Russian export is probably arms.  They will also profit massively selling arms to Iran and everyone else in the region if a wider war breaks out.

    Russia comes out one of the biggest winners of a war between the US and Iran on a whole lot of levels.

  162. 162.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    on MSNBC: Andrea Mitchell hits “state-sponsored terrorism”. Everybody drink!

  164. 164.

    catclub

    @zhena gogolia: I was just going to say that this looks like a phase where we have very good intelligence to locate these people.  So saying israel was involved does not surprise me.

     

    I would also say that taking out an iranian in iraq looks better than killing Iraqis in Iraq, from the point of view that at least some of the present Iraqi protesters are opposing the politicians who have heavy ties to iran. The killing of Iraqi in Iraq by the US put those protesters back on their heels compared with the more explicitly Iranian backed protesters- who do not mind iranian backed politicians.

  167. 167.

    jl

    OK, news gets worse, if my understanding of acronyms  is correct.

    Iran’s Gen. Soleimani Killed in Airstrike at Baghdad Airport
    Iraqi state TV and three Iraqi officials say Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, has been killed in an airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport.

    ” The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, the officials said. ”

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-01-02/iraq-at-least-3-katyusha-rockets-fired-at-baghdad-airport

    al-Muhandis is deputy commander of ‘Iran-backed’ militias, but If my understanding is correct, these organizations are also recognized by the Iraqi government. So, we killed a military leader of Iraqi forces recognized by the Iraqi government.

    So, we’ll might be fighting a war with Iran, or fending off Iran retaliation, while large part of Iraqi government will be trying to kick US forces out of the country, or significant violent turmoil in Iraq.

    We just witnessed a depraved, very dangerous, and moronic act by Trumpsters. IMHO of course.

  169. 169.

    catclub

    @Captain C: openly bumping him off like this seems like a stupid idea even if you have the plans and preparation to deal with the consequences;

     

    Bumping off Suleimani when he is in Iraq seems to me the best possible way to do it. So the least stupid way to do it.

  173. 173.

    jl

    @catclub: I think depends on how Iraqi government, and Iraqis feel about attacks against what they consider to be their own military forces inside their own country.

    Large parts of Iraqi govt and society will be enraged.

  174. 174.

    Mary G

    …somewhere, while eating an aged wagu beef steak, John Bolton feels the rise of his first non-medically enhanced boner in years…— Christopher Moore (@TheAuthorGuy) January 3, 2020

    This is Twitler’s quid pro quo for Bolton to keep his mouth shut.

  175. 175.

    Evil_Paul

    Okay, so follow on question:

    The militias that occupied part of the embassy (al jazeera is reporting their leader was killed also) were setting themselves up for an occupation, but the Iraqi government convinced them to leave by offering concessions (holding a vote in Parliament to expel US forces). So if they agreed to leave in “good faith” (so to speak) and the US turns around and kills their leadership, does this force the Iraqi government onto Iran’s side?  Aren’t they going to have to order US forces out to avoid looking like impotent tools or something?

    Is there even going to be an Iraqi government by this time next week?

  177. 177.

    Mary G

    Some of my best Hill sources tonight tell me there is very little to no appetite inside GOP for attacking Iran in Iran, but support for taking steps to protect embassy in Baghdad as long as intel is solid. Emphasis on securing compound, stability. Uneasiness tho about POTUS…— Robert Costa (@costareports) January 3, 2020

  179. 179.

    M31

    we need to rescind the Trump tax cuts to pay for the war, that’s how you show you love the troops

    hahahaha right

  180. 180.

    jl

    @Evil_Paul: ” …does this force the Iraqi government onto Iran’s side?  Aren’t they going to have to order US forces out to avoid looking like impotent tools or something?

    Is there even going to be an Iraqi government by this time next week? ”

    My understanding is that Iraqi government is seriously split between factions friendly to Iran and unfriendly. So these are very important questions. A very bad case scenario, but by far from the worst, is that US has to fend off serious Iranian retaliation, one part of Iraqi government makes serious moves to kick US out for several (and seems to me legit) reasons, and Iraqi government starts to fall apart.

  183. 183.

    CaseyL

    @Mike in DC: This may be good for electric cars. Just sayin’.

    A hot war with Iran is more likely to see the completion of our transition to an authoritarian oligarchy than anything else.  I expect the GOP to not only call for dismissal of the impeachment trial, but quite possibly a “suspension” of the 2020 election.

    Apocalypse, here we come!

  184. 184.

    Eolirin

    @NotMax: I know that was an attempt at a joke, but we wouldn’t have pursued a sanctions regime to generate pressure to get them to agree to not build nukes if they didn’t have the means and capabilities of getting there and in a relatively short period of time.

    I can’t imagine the likelihood of them restarting that process isn’t significantly higher after this. How long will it take, realistically?

  191. 191.

    jl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    ‘ “This strike was aimed at deterring future attack plans.” By the Pentagon’s own logic, if Iran retaliates, the strike mission failed its key goal. Remember that. ‘

    That thinking is so unbelievably stupid, I have to assume for now that some Trumpster loons ordered the Pentagon to say that.

  192. 192.

    Adam L Silverman

    @ema: No. This decision was made above the theater command level because of the political sensitivity of it. The intel for the targeting packet may have been generated within the theater of operations, but the decision was likely made at the National Command Authority level after consulting with the CENTCOM Commanding General.

  193. 193.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman: What’s your take on fact that, IIRC, PMF/PMU is officially recognized as a part of Iraqi military. And my worries about what today’s assassination means for situation inside Iraq?

    Edit: I understand that part of Iraqi government and society do not like at all that there is also a PMF/PMU – Iraqi connection, but IIRC it does exist. And that split is part of the danger and the problem.

  194. 194.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Adam L Silverman: Is Ari Fleischer on the payroll, or is he just the kind of dumbass they pick for a mark?

    Jason Campbell‏ @JasonSCampbell
    Ari Fleischer: “I think it is entirely possible that this is going to be a catalyst inside Iran where the people celebrate this killing of Soleimani”

    The news will be greeted with sweets and flowers

  197. 197.

    Nope

    Assuming that our rulers, even with Bolton suspended, are playing two-dimensional chess with a hammer, is it possible that the American contractor whose death set this uproar in motion was as valuable to our rulers as Soleimani was to the Iranians?

  198. 198.

    Adam L Silverman

    @lamh36: I don’t know. I would expect that we track Suleimani, so I would not expect this to be a strike on Mohandis that accidentally killed Suleimani.

  202. 202.

    Jay C

    Even allowing for the source, I found one thing curious about the DoD’s official statement regarding the Soleimani assassination: the assertion that he was “actively developing plans” to attack Americans in the region. Of course, it’s the kind of thing the G is going to have to say to justify the attack: but it just seems to me that – at this point – mounting any sort of major campaign, whether by terrorism or more-direct military actions against American forces/interests  would seem counter-productive. Obviously, Soleimani was no friend of ours, but there might have been other ways to damage our presence there without running the risk of serious pushback by the US. Or a reaction by the Iraqi government that they couldn’t control.

    Maybe there are deeper strategic issues I’m not aware of, but ISTM that if the Iranians really want to run us out of Iraq, there are easier ways to do it than by a campaign of aggression. Especially against a military superpower.

  205. 205.

    jimmiraybob

    @Procopius: is it legal for us to bomb targets in Iraq without their permission?

    No. Why do you ask?

    That was one of my first thoughts.  Outright assassination of a leadership figure on foreign sovereign territory both seem unlawful in an international law kinda way.

    But hey, Trumpism.

  206. 206.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Martin: No arguments from me. The AUMF is long overdue for either being amended or rescinded. It is a loaded gun, constantly being reloaded, just lying around waiting to be used.

  208. 208.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Nope: @Adam L Silverman: I’ve been thinking about that. Republicans are celebrating like we just took out Hitler in June of ’42, touting this as a response to the siege of embassy in Baghdad, which yesterday was totally no bigs because Benghazi. How many people were paying attention to that, on NYE. How many people even know a contractor was killed, or that we retaliated with a massive air strike (wasn’t it?) that killed 25 Iraqis? I suspect a lot of Americans will react to this news with confusion, maybe a “here we go again” feeling. I have a low opinion of Republicans, but even I’m surprised at the way they’re spiking the ball.

  209. 209.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman: 

    OK, my statement that PMF/PMU is officially part of Iraqi military may have been too strong. Wiki description seems ambiguous:

    The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), also known as the People’s Mobilization Committee (PMC) and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU)… is an Iraqi state-sponsored umbrella organization composed of some 40 militias that are mostly Shia Muslim groups, but also including Sunni Muslim, Christian, and Yazidi individuals as well.[22][23] The popular mobilization units as a group was formed in 2014 and have fought in nearly every major battle against ISIL.[24] It has been called the new Iraqi Republican Guard after it was fully reorganized in early 2018 by its then-Commander in Chief Haider al-Abadi. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi issued “regulations to adapt the situation of the Popular Mobilization fighters,” giving them ranks and salaries equivalent to other branches of the Iraqi military.[3] ”

    But then there is this: “The Laws and conduct by which the PMF should abide are those of the Iraqi Government since the Iraqi Prime Minister has the final control over the PMF. ”

    From: Popular Mobilization Forces

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Mobilization_Forces

    Either way, seems to be iranian friendly parts of Iraqi government and large parts of Iraqi society will consider US attacks as attacks against Iraq.

  212. 212.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Julia Ioffe‏Verified account @juliaioffe 28m28 minutes ago
    Everyone’s asking if the US government has a plan. Trump spent the last 3 years hollowing out our diplomatic corps, undermining military commanders, and denigrating intelligence agencies. His supporters like it. They believe he was sent by god. They don’t need him to have a plan.

    I like Ioffe, but she left out one that I think is pretty important now: Undermining out oldest and strongest alliances.

  215. 215.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @chris:

    Kayleigh McEnany calls the missile strike “the greatest foreign policy accomplishment of the decade if not our lifetime”

    the decade’s two days old

  216. 216.

    mrmoshpotato

    @lamh36: Jesus Fucking Christ, there’s always a fucking tweet.  (Don’t bang head against fridge.  Don’t bang head against fridge.)

  217. 217.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: I explained this the other day. The PMU and PMF are the same thing. Ktaib Hezbullah and Nujabaa, which call themselves PMU, are really Iranian proxies under control of the Quds Force. So as long as they were making trouble for ISIS, we didn’t make too much of a fuss. Does that help?

  218. 218.

    jl

    One slight bit of hope is that Iran will play this smart. If they want to get rid of the idiot Trump, they should not retaliate right away. If these attacks cause big problems inside Iraq (which I think is likely) then best response is for Iran to work on turmoil there. Idea would be to create impression that Trump’s idiot move was a blunder, humiliate Trump on the world stage (pretty easy to do) and just make the whole think look like a Trump created mess.

    I think that is our best hope for now. If were Iranian bigshot, that is what I would do, if Iranian domestic sentiment allowed it.

    Seems to me that Iran has the power to make the headlines “Iraq slides into civil war due to Trump stupidity” And maybe some high oil prices to go with it. Trumpsters will yell about it all being Iran’s fault, but not sure even they could pull that off, and not sure how they could do anything that would make the situation better for them. Only disastrous but Hail Mary attempt would be to rig up a war with Iran to rally population around War Pres, but that would have to overcome very deep opposition in US to another war in Middle East, and with Iran in particular. The Trumpster base will go along with anything, but they alone can’t win an election.

  220. 220.

    Another Scott

    @jl:

    I posted this comment yesterday, with an extended excerpt from an Al Jazeera article:

    The Iran-backed Shia paramilitary group was aligned with the Iraqi government in its battle against the ISIL (ISIS) group. It was formally incorporated into the Iraqi military in July 2019.

    Adam’s reply is here.

    tl;dr – it’s complicated. They’re part of the Iraqi military, but have very strong ties to Iran.

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  221. 221.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman: Yes I understand the basics of your previous post.

    I’m making a different point. Large parts of Iraq consider the PMF/PMU an Iraqi organization, which makes situation worse.

  224. 224.

    jl

    @Another Scott: Thanks for the link.

    My point is how large parts of the Iraqi government and society perceive the PMU as an Iraqi organization. Not the legal niceties or what functional role they actually play as mainly doing work for Iraq or Iran.

    I hope that clarifies what I’ve been saying.

  225. 225.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: No, Mohandis is the head of Ktaib Hezbullah, which is an Iran controlled Shi’a militia in Iraq that claims to be part of the PMU and that fought ISIS alongside the PMU.

  227. 227.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Raven Onthill: “Shut up libtard!  Bush Trump is a wartime president!  Why do you hate the troops?!”

    ETA – missed the “cancelled elections” part.  Fuckin’ cool it!

  231. 231.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman:  I think that the fact that Iraqi government and society are deeply split between pro and anti iranian factions greatly widens the possibilities of how the US strikes might produce very bad results.

  236. 236.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Adam L Silverman: what do you think of this? The Pentagon trying to distance itself?

    The Hoarse Whisperer Retweeted Manu Raju
    Pay close attention to the first six words.
    Pentagon making clear this was Trump’s doing.

  237. 237.

    cain

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    They are dumb as fuck. Trump won’t be able to manage this conflict. He will fuck up competent attempts to it as well because of his fucking ego. In about one Friedman unit, this is going to turn into a complete clusterfuck and the Republicans are going to have serious issues because a lot of shit will go down of which they won’t have any knowledge ahead of time.

    This administration is going to go down in flames and us with it. Benghazi was touted to tell folks that we looked weak, that’s nothing to what we will look like when we become everyone else’s bitch.

  239. 239.

    Jay

    Iran is not going to do anything rash. They never do. They will wait decades if needed.

    This will once again completely trash the US reputation amongst the Shia, Kurds, some Sunnis, Yardzis, Assyrians, etc because of these guys reps for fighting ISIL, al Quida and backing regional defence forces against ISIL, al Quida and it’s many franchises and spin offs,

    and will feed propaganda, CT and disinfo operations about the US role in the Middle East for generations.

    It was a spectacular “own goal” by the US, that Forever War is never going away and just got way bigger.

  241. 241.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Mike in DC: I was recalling how Dubya made a few phone calls and made sure gas prices stayed nice and low for quite a while after 9/11. Took a few years for them to really spike and by then he’d been reelected. But, yeah, war with Iran would be bigger.

  242. 242.

    Procopius

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My initial take regarding the killing of Suleimani is that this decapitates Iran’s capabilities …

    Yeah, and decapitation has worked so well in the War on Drugs, especially in Colombia and Mexico. I think we’re going to get a thorough testing of the Patriot anti-missile system, and possibly Aegis. Is the aircraft carrier still in the Arabian Sea? At least they had enough sense to not put it into the Persian Gulf. No good will come from this.

  243. 243.

    joel hanes

    @Fair Economist:

    Sarandon has to be a fake leftist

    Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

    I think she’s just ignorant where she’s not misinformed.   It’s a pretty common problem among the famous and non-famous alike.

  245. 245.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Adam L Silverman: All government, and most think tank language that uses one of the forms of the word deterrence today is corrupted. “Restore deterrence” usually means “bomb them some more.” I’ve got a publication in preparation on this.

  246. 246.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: I am not currently working directly for the DOD or the Department of the Army as either a mobilized civilian or a contractor, so I’m not in the loop.

  247. 247.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Questions to keep in mind for tomorrow, as more information comes out:

    1. How was the decision made? With whom did Trump confer? The NSC? His cronies at Mar-a-Lago?
    2. Whom did he inform before he took action? European allies? People in the Iraqi government? Others in the region? Putin? Netanyahu?
  248. 248.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: My guess from the way that’s worded is that the President and Stephen Miller drafted it, sent it over to the Pentagon, and told them to issue it. It reads like a Miller press release that’s been lightly massaged by real Public Affairs Officers.

  250. 250.

    Matt McIrvin

    @jl: If what they really want is to get back at the United States as a whole and destroy the US as a world power, Iran should do everything in its power to make sure Trump gets reelected, not to get rid of him. Of course, they’d take a lot of damage from us too, but for leaders intending to solidify domestic power that might be a feature rather than a bug.

  256. 256.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: The decision was definitely made above the theater command level because of the political considerations and the nature of the strike. Given that we don’t have a functioning Interagency process, I doubt the NSC was actually involved beyond O’Brien and the principals at DOD, the CJCS, the Geographic Combatant Commander, State, DNI, and CIA.

  257. 257.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My guess from the way that’s worded is that the President and Stephen Miller drafted it, sent it over to the Pentagon, and told them to issue it

    ah, like my then three-year-old nephew’s “I did it all BY MYSELF!” phase

    @Cheryl Rofer: sounding like, as several tweeters have it, Eric knew, and Congress didn’t ( @Jim, Foolish Literalist: ). McConnell’s office “declined to comment” when asked if he had been consulted, or informed.

  258. 258.

    Procopius

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Luckily Iran is not actually a client state of the Russian Federation, more like a loosely connected ally and potential customer for arms. Syria is a client state, and has objected to the Israeli attacks on (alleged) Iranian positions, but Russia has allowed them and Netanyahu is on good terms with Putin (why don’t the Democrats ever mention that he made about five trips to moscow last year?). I don’t think World War III is going to start unless the U.S. uses nukes on Iran, which they very well might do.

  259. 259.

    Jinchi

    @Adam L Silverman:  “This strike was aimed at deterring future attack plans.”

    I don’t know. The actual statement reads “Suleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members”. This falls more in the “Bin Laden to Strike in US” active threat category and not in the Cheney one-percent doctrine “Suleimani might someday think about doing something bad”  category.

    Now, given all the lying with this administration, you can doubt whether it’s true, but on it’s face, the statement is pretty solid.

  263. 263.

    Kent

    @Matt McIrvin:@jl: If what they really want is to get back at the United States as a whole and destroy the US as a world power, Iran should do everything in its power to make sure Trump gets reelected, not to get rid of him. Of course, they’d take a lot of damage from us too, but for leaders intending to solidify domestic power that might be a feature rather than a bug.

    This.  From the Iranian point of view, they are engaged in a geopolitical battle with the US going back decades.  Not some personal battle with only Trump.    The strategic thing would be to keep Trump in power to further diminish US standing in the world and crumble US alliances.

  264. 264.

    Another Scott

    @Kent: I disagree. The Iranian economy is hurting, things were starting to look up under the JCPOA, and there was actual meaningful progress in the relationship with the US, the EU, and the rest of the world under Obama.

    As I see it, Iran would like nothing better than for Donnie and the Teabaggers to be thrown out on their ears and for sensible adults to be in charge of US policy again.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  265. 265.

    jl

    @Kent:  Trump might try a sustained bombing campaign, or even try to find an excuse for a nuclear strike. And seems to me that discrediting the GOP Iran war hawks would be a long term good thing for them.

    I think best strategy would be to get rid of Trump, prepare to develop break out nuke capability shortly after that vicious dope is gone, and negotiate from a position of far greater strength with next Democratic president than they had with Obama

    @Another Scott:  that too

  267. 267.

    Tim C.

    @Cheryl Rofer: Probably not a question that’s answerable, but given how Trump did an epic chicken-out last May when he didn’t go through with attack plans, who talked him into this? What goals did they have? Who even presented this to Trump as an option?

  268. 268.

    Jay

    @Jinchi:

    actively developing plans is what strategists do.

    WTSHTF, file “A”, index “IQ”, “Plan Ali” in the second file drawer, 3rd row, pull, read, distribute, issue orders.

    Just like the guys at SETI have “plans” for “when the Aliens contact us”.

  269. 269.

    Another Scott

    The US' act of international terrorism, targeting & assassinating General Soleimani—THE most effective force fighting Daesh (ISIS), Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al—is extremely dangerous & a foolish escalation.The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism.— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 3, 2020

    (via TheHill)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  270. 270.

    Jinchi

    @jl: Trump might try a sustained bombing campaign

    Sustained?  That’s not really Trump’s style. He wants instant gratification, which is why he fantasizes about nuclear bombs. He doesn’t have patience for sustained.

  271. 271.

    jl

    (Humble brag alert)

    Ilan Goldenberg thinks that most likely response is Iran makes life for Trump a living hell in Iraq. I think that is best way to get rid of Trump in 2020 and do serious damage to GOP Iran war hawk machine.

    “escalation in Iraq. This is basically all out war now with Shia militias going after US troops, diplomats, & civilians. I hope they had this well planned out to protect our people. unclear if Iraqi politicians will even want us to stay. might be the end of the US presence ”

    https://twitter.com/ilangoldenberg/status/1212939071775019008

    Found via Josh Marshall’s twitter

  272. 272.

    Jay

    @jl:

    Iran has a longstanding position that Nuclear Weapons are un-Islamic.

    Of course, from a Western viewpoint, we don’t “grok” their views on martyrdom at all either.

  273. 273.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Tim C.: I think he’s capable of coming up with it himself, to try to top Obama’s getting Osama bin Laden, if someone explained to him who these people are.

    But I won’t discount your questions, which can be added to mine.

  275. 275.

    jl

    @Jay: ” Iran has a longstanding position that Nuclear Weapons are un-Islamic. ”

    But is using the threat of nuclear strike as a bargaining chip that they’re fine with giving away in any event, in order to get a much better deal un-Islamic?

  276. 276.

    Another Scott

    Soleimani was a murderer, responsible for the deaths of thousands, including hundreds of Americans. But this reckless move escalates the situation with Iran and increases the likelihood of more deaths and new Middle East conflict. Our priority must be to avoid another costly war.— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) January 3, 2020

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  277. 277.

    Jinchi

    @Jay: actively developing plans is what strategists do.

    To me, “actively” implies that he’s planning an actual attack. If the NYT printed a headline saying “US is actively planning an assault on Tehran”, I’d expect bombs to be in the air soon. It’s not the same as “US conducts war games in the Persian Gulf”.

  278. 278.

    Jay

    @jl:

    won’t happen.

    In the short term, there will be protests and blockaides of US and “Coelition” “Embassies”, bases, training ops, support facilities, non-military support groups, by unarmed and deniably  armed Iraqi’s which like in the Fallujah Massacre of 2003, US “forces” slaughter civillians, over and over.

    Fallujah was Sunni, not Shia. Saddam City will be an even bigger no go zone.

  280. 280.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My guess from the way that’s worded is that the President and Stephen Miller drafted it, sent it over to the Pentagon, and told them to issue it.

    That raises the possibility that we didn’t do it, and Trump just wants to claim credit.  He is exactly that stupid.  Would the military lie for him like that, though?

  281. 281.

    Jay

    @jl:

    Iran started Nuclear Weapons Programs under the Shah, because of Iraq’s Nuke Program and Saddam.

    Not Israel or the US.

    The Islamic Revolution half heartedly continued the program, ( money issues, theological disputes) because Iraq, Saddam.

    Not Israel, not the US.

    When the UN Weapons Inspectors confirmed that Saddam’s Nuclear Program was dead, done, sealed forever and buried in the desert forever, ( and was a POS anyway), in the early ‘Aughts, the Iranians rented a crapload of UStore facilities, moved everything there, lost the keys a few years later, then stopped paying the storage fees shortly after. What UStore LLC Bahrain did with the storage locker contents, is unknown.

  284. 284.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Adam L Silverman:

    We don’t take credit for other people’s kills.

    Define ‘we’.  Trump would in a hot second.  I would believe the Pentagon being unwilling to tell that lie.

    Not that I seriously believe the Pentagon’s statement is a lie, but there is something huge that we don’t know about this that will come out in the next two or three days.  That always happens.  Everything Trump touches turns to shit.

  285. 285.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Frankensteinbeck: We don’t take credit for other people’s kills including and especially of this magnitude because it puts our personnel and citizens at greater risk.

  286. 286.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I still need you to define ‘we’.  Are you specifically saying that the US military would be unwilling to lie about that if the President ordered them to?  I find that entirely believable, even more likely than not, but I need to know what I’m being told.  If ‘we’ means ‘The US government’, the President absolutely would do that.

  287. 287.

    RaflW

    @Roger Moore:

    The buck always stops at the top.

    This has been mostly true for quite a long time. But slippery moron Trump has shattered (or sharted) so many norms that I’m not buying that it works quite like this at the moment.

  288. 288.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Frankensteinbeck: THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, THE WHITE HOUSE/EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY, THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE, AND THE ENTIRE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY!

  289. 289.

    Jay

    @Jinchi:

    it’s Pentagon “argle bagel”. Sulameini’s job is to come up with plans, in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, is to come up with multiple “plans” for “if they do this, we can do that”, dissemenate them and tag assets to be trained and used, preferred tactics, to “maintain” or “promote” Iran’s interests,

    irrespective of whom the “they” is. The “they” could be Israel, the US, NATO, the various Peshmurga and Kurd Groups, ISIL, albQuida, Sunnis and even some Shia factions.

    In 2002 his job was to come up with the “plan” for the IRGC, their assets, the Hazera resistance inside Herat, to work with the “Dirty Dozen”, US Airpower and the Northern Alliance, to quickly take the city from the Taliban, by having “his people” attack from the inside, at the same time the US and their allies, attacked from the outside.

    sadly, the US Intelligence, Political and Military establishments have been deeply infiltrated by the MEK terrorists.

  290. 290.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The office of the Presidency would do it.  In a heartbeat.  Trump has zero concern for the lives of US servicemen it would put in danger and has put in danger.  He cares only about his extremely limited perception of his own reputation.  Someone else would have to refuse down the line.  If you are saying that everyone else would refuse, I am quite willing to trust you on it.  It’s what I would have expected.

  291. 291.

    Jay

    @Another Scott:

    used to be Saddam City, his project slums for the urban Shia in Baghdad. In 2003, it changed ownership, just not on the official maps for a while. It was always “Sadr City”, from the first groundbreaking.

  292. 292.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay:

    sadly, the US Intelligence, Political and Military establishments have been deeply infiltrated by the MEK terrorists 

    No they haven’t. With the exception of Bolton when he was AP-NSA.

  294. 294.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Frankensteinbeck: I give up. You’re right. The Sardukar under command of the Beast Rabban of Lankovil of House Harkonnen contracted out as mercenary assassins to the Founders of the Dominion of the Gamma Quadrant did it and we’re just taking credit for shits, giggles, and because we have over 5,000 personnel in Iraq and somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 personnel throughout the region who are all now walking, talking targets.

    I’m going to bed before I write something intemperate.

  296. 296.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Warren just spouted “Flynn Facts”, so, yeah.

    If you have a real time, inside source on Sulomeinni (sp, self medicating with a nice white) and his plans, you don’t “whack him”.

  297. 297.

    Another Scott

    Al Jazeera:

    […]

    A three-day national mourning has been declared in Iran in honour of Soleimani.

    Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei paid tribute to him as a “martyr”, and vowed a “vigorous revenge is waiting for the criminals.”

    Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif also condemned the killing as an “act of international terrorism.”

    “The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism.”

    Iraqi officials and the state television reported that aside from Soleimani, Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was also killed in the pre-dawn raid.

    […]

    Sources from the PMF earlier told Al Jazeera that the rockets destroyed two vehicles carrying “high-profile guests”, who had arrived at the Baghdad airport and were being escorted by militia members. Earlier reports said five other people were killed in the raid.

    Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid, reporting from Baghdad, said the deaths are a significant turning point in Iraq and the entire Middle East.

    He said the region has already been “on edge” since the US attack on PMF forces near Iraq’s border with Syria, and the raid on the US Embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday.

    “This is a major blow on the relationship between the United States and the Iraqi government,” bin Javaid said. “It is a very precarious situation on which this significant development is taking place.”

    […]

    In an interview with Al Jazeera, former US Assistant Secretary of Defense Lawrence Korb said “there is no doubt” that the US wanted to target Soleimani “for a while”.

    Korb predicted that Iran could retaliate by launching “asymmetric type of attacks” that do not risk an all-out confrontation with the US.

    Hillary Mann Leverett, a former White House National Security official, said the US killing of Soleimani is a “declaration of war” on Iran.

    “Americans throughout the region need to be on guard. We are now in an incredibly dangerous situation. It is an incredibly dangerous course that we are on,” Leverett told Al Jazeera.

    Killing Soleimani is equivalent to the Iranians “assassinating” the American defence secretary, or the commander of the US Central Command, she added.

    “The president has taken this without debate in Congress, without any Congressional authority, it is probably an illegal act within the US domestic context.”

    Protesters storm US embassy in Baghdad

    In Tehran, Soleimani’s death sent shockwaves among residents, who were awake when the news was announced, according to Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, who is reporting from the Iranian capital.

    “With the news of his assassination, there is a tremendous amount of shock and anger that could follow, not only in Iran but across the Middle East,” she said.

    “His name is synonymous to Iranian national pride, no matter how he has been labelled outside of the country,” Jabbari said, adding that hymns of mourning are being played on Iranian radio to mark Soleimani’s death.

    […]

    Happy 2020. :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  298. 298.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    btw, you’ve listed close to half a dozen in the MEK’s pockets, not low ranks, not mid ranks, and there is lots of trickle down.

    every single one of the “half a dozen”, has dozens of staffers, attached, and other people who get influenced, deeply.

  299. 299.

    Another Scott

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:

    Trump’s dangerous escalation brings us closer to another disastrous war in the Middle East that could cost countless lives and trillions more dollars. Trump promised to end endless wars, but this action puts us on the path to another one.— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) January 3, 2020

    Oh no!  Donnie broke his promise!!  Whatever will we do!!!11

    :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  300. 300.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: All of those people went into the MEK’s employ as lobbyists after they left government. Only Bolton has been back in government since doing so.

  302. 302.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Frankensteinbeck: More seriously and less smartassedly, I’m honestly not sure what else to tell you. You can either believe me or not, but I’ve honestly given you a straight answer. Beyond that all I have is snark.

  304. 304.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Trump promised to end endless wars, but this action puts us on the path to another one.

    I think of all the dumb shithead lefties who said Dump was a dove.

    Disgusting.

  305. 305.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    only the ones that took MEK Buks and reported it/registered according to “rules”, which we know from Dotus/Russia a “shitload” probably didn’t.

    Whatabbout, ( snark but not) the Juniors who swam in “Flynn Facts” everyday. As we know, swimming in CT BS, even as an exposer, debunker, still fills the brain with CT.

  306. 306.

    Ed Marshall

    So…the big worry the last couple weeks was that Soleimani was at work in Iraq trying to orchestrate a situation that would end in the Iraqi government expelling US troops from there.

    The solution wound up being killing Soleimani in a way that *guarantees* not only the expulsion of US troops but probably diplomatic relations with the United States.

    I have this straight?

  307. 307.

    Jay

    The plot sickens,

    .@Netanyahu and I had a productive call today. We discussed U.S. defensive strikes in Iraq and Syria to counter Iran’s threats. The U.S. will take decisive action to defend its citizens and interests.— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) December 31, 2019

  308. 308.

    Jay

    @Ed Marshall:

    probably not. Sulameni (sp) was back in Iraq to assist/guide/plan for Iran’s Iraqi allies to respond to, moderate and counter:

    – anti-Iranian aspects of the Iraqi protests and political shifts,

    – Iraqi/Iranian PMU’s issues with the US, the Coelition, Western Support, and internal political issues,

    – fighting that has broken out for “reasons” which probably are 99% related to the lack of day to day fighting against an external threat, (ISIL), and now, past resentments, politics and spoils.

  309. 309.

    Jim

    As long as the Orange Psycho gets back into the spotlight ………………………………………………………

  310. 310.

    Shalimar

    @Adam L Silverman: Who were their other theater commanders?  How many other theaters does Iran have?  Who was Suleimani’s boss?

    Theater commander seems to understate his importance.  Everything Iran cares even a tiny bit about was within his theater.

  311. 311.

    WaterGirl

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I think he’s capable of coming up with it himself, to try to top Obama’s getting Osama bin Laden, if someone explained to him who these people are.

    You know 100 times more than I do about this, but how is that even possible?

    How many times would they have to explain that before Trump actually understood.  A hundred?  Even if Trump were capable of comprehending it, he isn’t capable of sitting through that many briefings.

    I think someone with influence must have handed this to Trump all tied up in a bow.  And Trump must have seen this as a solution to all his problems, without comprehending that it creates a thousand more.

  312. 312.

    jimmiraybob

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I had facetiously asked, “Has superior war fighter Eddie Gallagher been given command of the pentagon yet?”  But on a serious note, when asking who was whispering into Trump’s eager ear, its not out of the question that Gallagher got Trump’s need-to-prove-himself juices flowing.   Especially if it would help quiet the ever present Obama voice in his head.

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