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You are here: Home / Open Threads / I Do What I Like, and What I Like is What I Like

I Do What I Like, and What I Like is What I Like

by @heymistermix.com|  January 7, 20209:51 am| 106 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

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The headline is a lyric of a song I heard the other day, and I think it pretty much encapsulates what’s going on with Trump at any given time. I also think it expresses his lack of staying power – right now, it looks like he’s about to set the world on fire in Iran and Iraq, but give him a few days and he’ll be paying attention to something else. My guess is that Pompeo and the rest of the war lovers will soon be disappointed by Trump’s lack of commitment. I think Trump already understands that war is a losing game, so that’s why he has Pence giving a speech on Iran policy next week.

Speaking of Pompeo, he’s not running for Senate in Kansas. Ha ha fucking ha, is my measured response to that news. I would have loved to see the polling that drove his decision. He’s so god damned unlikable that even the voters of Kansas have decided to spare us another Cruz-like figure in the Senate.

Open thread.

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Reader Interactions

106Comments

  1. 1.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 7, 2020 at 9:54 am

    I too have the sense that Trump’s war love/ Iran hate is winding down.

    Hard to know what he’ll mess with next, though.

  2. 2.

    germy

    January 7, 2020 at 9:55 am

    My guess is that Pompeo and the rest of the war lovers will soon be disappointed by Trump’s lack of commitment.

    True.  The End Times aren’t going to end time themselves.  Pompeo wants #45 to expedite the process.

  3. 3.

    Crashman06

    January 7, 2020 at 9:58 am

    I sure hope your right about this.

  4. 4.

    Kraux Pas

    January 7, 2020 at 9:59 am

    Something you’re forgetting, though. His limited attention-span and lack of follow-through only matter up to a point. Iran’s actions will be important here, they are not without agency.

  5. 5.

    MattF

    January 7, 2020 at 10:00 am

    Also note that if you google ‘unpopular kansas’, the first item you get is about Kris Kovachs, who would have been Pompeo’s opponent in a primary. Hard to believe, but it looks like Republicans are seriously fucked in Kansas.

  6. 6.

    Jinchi

    January 7, 2020 at 10:08 am

    right now, it looks like he’s about to set the world on fire in Iran and Iraq, but give him a few days and he’ll be paying attention to something else.

    I hope you’re right, but he’s not the only player in this. Even if the Iranians play it cool, there are plenty of groups who would be happy to stage an attack on Americans in Iraq and blame it on Iran. Since Trump’s only tactics are threat and escalation events may start forcing his hand.

  7. 7.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    January 7, 2020 at 10:09 am

    If we play our cards right, 2020 is a big opportunity for Democrats to win a sizable majority in the Senate.

  8. 8.

    Roger Moore

    January 7, 2020 at 10:10 am

    @MattF:

    Hard to believe, but it looks like Republicans are seriously fucked in Kansas.

    It says something about our country that it’s hard to believe the party that’s run the state into the ground is unpopular enough to start losing elections.

  9. 9.

    Major Major Major Major

    January 7, 2020 at 10:11 am

    @Kraux Pas: His limited attention-span and lack of follow-through only matter up to a point. Iran’s actions will be important here, they are not without agency.

    Very good point. Though they’re not without rationality, either–I wonder what their best move is, strategically speaking? They have to do something, but avoid poking the easily-distracted bear too hard.

    Sorry if it’s a ghoulish train of thought.

  10. 10.

    Betty Cracker

    January 7, 2020 at 10:13 am

    The best possible Trump legacy would be the destruction a generation of the most loathsome, cowardly and ambitious wingnut careerists, including Pompeo, Haley and Rubio.

  11. 11.

    Frankensteinbeck

    January 7, 2020 at 10:15 am

    give him a few days and he’ll be paying attention to something else.

    No, he won’t. The backlash Trump got on this will haunt him for years. Trump expected his OBL moment, and instead he turned on CNN and they’re discussing whether this helped America or was the flailing of an idiot that will doom us all. People are yelling at him in person that – actually, it doesn’t matter what, he’s getting scolded when he thought he would be basking in universal praise. This was an excruciating disaster by Trump’s standards, which are about Trump’s ego.

  12. 12.

    BR

    January 7, 2020 at 10:17 am

    There is one other thing we can do to help Dem prospects along in 2020 — the economy is wobbling right now, but isn’t in recession, and probably won’t be.  But if the headlines through the summer of 2020 is that the economy is on the verge of recession, that will help Dem chances to win.  Right now it’s the *consumer* (that is, all of us) that’s holding the economy up.

    There couldn’t be a better time to cash out of any investments you have (even retirement accounts can be moved to all cash), and pay down any debt.  It’s a fiscally prudent move at any time, but now especially it has a one-two punch of avoiding any market downturn and also taking some money out of the consumer economy.  We need to get enough Dems doing this.

  13. 13.

    japa21

    January 7, 2020 at 10:19 am

    Watching Pompeo I just realized I miss Rex Tillerson.

  14. 14.

    Frankensteinbeck

    January 7, 2020 at 10:20 am

    @Roger Moore:

    It says something about our country that it’s hard to believe the party that’s run the state into the ground is unpopular enough to start losing elections.

    That hate is enormously, fantastically powerful as a voting motivation, especially in rural areas, but not totally invincible?

  15. 15.

    Roger Moore

    January 7, 2020 at 10:21 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I wonder what their best move is, strategically speaking?

    I still think a terror attack on a Trump branded property, maybe in Turkey, is about the right level of retaliation.  If it’s carried out by a proxy it gives them deniability, and it sends a very direct message to the right place.

  16. 16.

    Kraux Pas

    January 7, 2020 at 10:22 am

    @Roger Moore: It says something about our country that it’s hard to believe the party that’s run the state into the ground is unpopular enough to start losing elections.

    First off, that’s only a maybe.

    Second, we know what it really says. The people who have long run for office arguing that government is corrupt and ineffectual make no bones about being corrupt or destroying the government’s efficacy in office. How better to maintain the plausible validity of their argument?

  17. 17.

    Ella in New Mexico

    January 7, 2020 at 10:22 am

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I too have the sense that Trump’s war love/ Iran hate is winding down

    Given his history of making incredibly emotionally laden, impulsive decisions that later went very, very bad for him, I wonder if he’s having an old familiar feeling: buyer’s remorse. He’ll never admit it, and like his history also shows, he’ll keep driving this bus right over the cliff rather than admit he’s wrong and change course.

    Hopefully his tyrannical ire will now be directed towards Pompeo and all the people who pushed him to do this and put him in what he should see now is a very, very bad position. Like past staffers and advisors who fell out of grace with Mr. Big Stuff, they’re gonna be in their own kind of miserable mini-Hell.

    Good.

  18. 18.

    JPL

    January 7, 2020 at 10:25 am

    Iran will respond and force trump’s hand.   The question is what does he do then.

  19. 19.

    chopper

    January 7, 2020 at 10:26 am

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    depends on how iran responds. also, trump’s handing the ball over to pence (at least somewhat) can be interpreted as him getting bored with all the details or him wanting someone else to take the blame if/when shit gets serious.

  20. 20.

    piratedan

    January 7, 2020 at 10:27 am

    Well, perhaps if Iran engaged in proportional response and blew up the Fox News studios they could be welcomed as liberators and not enemies….

  21. 21.

    Evil_Paul

    January 7, 2020 at 10:28 am

    @Kraux Pas: Indeed. “The enemy always gets a vote.” is something at least one of his military advisors should have said to him by now.

    Iraq also factors into this equation. Months of protests, something like five hundred dead and a government on the verge of collapse, and now their Iranian-aligned militias screaming for blood. They ARE going to have to do something…

  22. 22.

    Calouste

    January 7, 2020 at 10:28 am

    @Jinchi: I’m sure Bibi would be happy to stage an attack on Americans in Iraq and blame it on Iran. Even without the shitgibbon asking.

  23. 23.

    OzarkHillbilly

    January 7, 2020 at 10:28 am

    @JPL: He’ll say Rouhani sent him a very nice love letter.

  24. 24.

    Joey Maloney

    January 7, 2020 at 10:30 am

    I wonder what their best move is, strategically speaking?

    Shell his golf courses on days when no one is playing them. No casualties, and even the property damage is just churned-up mud. It hits Stupid Hitler right where he lives, but makes the strongest possible case that any retaliation will be out of personal pique and not any actual damage to America.

  25. 25.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 7, 2020 at 10:31 am

    @Ella in New Mexico: Hopefully his tyrannical ire will now be directed towards Pompeo and all the people who pushed him to do this and put him in what he should see now is a very, very bad position. Like past staffers and advisors who fell out of grace with Mr. Big Stuff, they’re gonna be in their own kind of miserable mini-Hell.

    Just as with the North Korean impasse, I think it’s more likely that he moves on to something else. My nuclear colleagues have been saying that something like this, or anger at Kim Jong Un, is a likely outcome, but I think that he has no idea what to do once his bluster doesn’t work.

  26. 26.

    Kraux Pas

    January 7, 2020 at 10:31 am

    @Evil_Paul: Months of protests, something like five hundred dead and a government on the verge of collapse, and now their Iranian-aligned militias screaming for blood.

    Trump could not have given a better gift to the Iranian government even if he tried.

  27. 27.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 7, 2020 at 10:32 am

    @chopper: I think you are right about part of it. I am also wondering if some of his advisors recognize that what he would say is totally unpredictable and that we don’t need more of that.

  28. 28.

    OzarkHillbilly

    January 7, 2020 at 10:35 am

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I think that he has no idea what to do once his bluster doesn’t work.

    In the past he’s always just gone in search of a bigger sucker, but that play won’t work as president.

  29. 29.

    Ella in New Mexico

    January 7, 2020 at 10:35 am

    @germy:

    The End Times aren’t going to end time themselves.  Pompeo wants #45 to expedite the process.

    Given his normal doughy, flat expressions, I don’t think I’ve seen him quite so excited as he was at this morning’s presser. Honest to God I think the fact he’s getting Raptured anyway is why he decided to forgo the Senate bid–he can do OH SO MUCH MORE NOW right where he is…

  30. 30.

    MattF

    January 7, 2020 at 10:36 am

    @Cheryl Rofer: Trump’s various pathologies lead to a very limited behavioral repertoire. If ‘asshole, liar, bully’ don’t lead to a desired result, there’s no further possibilities.

  31. 31.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 7, 2020 at 10:37 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    They have to do something, but avoid poking the easily-distracted bear too hard.

    Why must they do anything? Trump has made himself look like an unhinged fool (again) with these airstrikes

  32. 32.

    laura

    January 7, 2020 at 10:37 am

    It appears that Kansas is starting to figure what’s the matter with Kansas and is taking corrective action.

    If I were an international traveler, I think I’d take a pass at booking a room at a trump labelled property.

  33. 33.

    Frankensteinbeck

    January 7, 2020 at 10:38 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    though they’re not without rationality, either–I wonder what their best move is, strategically speaking?

    Adam and others have always given me the impression that Iran is the most strategically rational actor in the Middle East.  I think their best move is to leverage this to get the US kicked out of Iraq by the Iraqi government.  That would hugely expand Iran’s regional power as well as giving the US an actually meaningful loss.

  34. 34.

    MattF

    January 7, 2020 at 10:39 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: The standard course of action at this stage of a con is to leave town in a hurry. Trump doesn’t have that option.

  35. 35.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 7, 2020 at 10:41 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: This is the root of many of our current problems. HIs mobster tactics don’t work with sovereign countries. Then he becomes frustrated and lashes out.

  36. 36.

    RobertDSC-Work

    January 7, 2020 at 10:42 am

    @Calouste:

    Given the events in the USS Liberty attack, he doesn’t need to stage it. Israel can do it themselves and get no grief for it.

  37. 37.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 7, 2020 at 10:43 am

    @Cheryl Rofer: that touches on Krugman’s column today

    Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman
    Trump imagines that other countries can be easily humiliated — that we live in a world of Lindsey Grahams

  38. 38.

    Major Major Major Major

    January 7, 2020 at 10:43 am

    @Frankensteinbeck: Forcing the US out of Iraq (or making the US fight a war/euphemism of occupation to stay) really would hit all the right notes for them, you’re right.

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Why must they do anything?

    It kind of sets a bad precedent to let the assassination of the second most important person in your country go unanswered.

  39. 39.

    zhena gogolia

    January 7, 2020 at 10:44 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    My fantasy is that they release the pee-pee tape. Adam said they’d do something embarrassing, after all

    ETA: And yes, I know his base won’t care. But a lot of people in the mushy middle will.

  40. 40.

    catclub

    January 7, 2020 at 10:44 am

    @Cheryl Rofer: Trump is expert at breaking something, making a crisis, then getting almost back to the state before he fucked things up, and calling it a win.

    NKorea, China trade, Border wall, etc

  41. 41.

    Tim C.

    January 7, 2020 at 10:44 am

    @Cheryl Rofer: So that’s a not-worst-possible outcome,  but what about whatever response the Iranians come up with?   If there are significant attacks on US Military targets in the region or elsewhere, would that cause Trump to ragegasm himself again?   That’s my fear at least.

  42. 42.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 7, 2020 at 10:46 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Excellent!

    Something I’ve noticed over the past few weeks is that the pundits and even reporters are becoming much more willing to say things that have been said here for some time about Trump’s inabilities and incapacities. Krugman has always done some of this, but he’s taking the gloves off.

  43. 43.

    Ella in New Mexico

    January 7, 2020 at 10:48 am

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I think that he has no idea what to do once his bluster doesn’t work.

    Exactly. As horrific to witness as it was, it was also fascinating watching him practically cut and paste his NK era “Taunting Bullshit I’ll Never Do” Tweet tactics towards Iran, obviously wrongly deciding it actually worked once so why not try again?

    As if the whole world including the Iranians have no memory can’t see right through it to his desperation, or see the majority of our country is outraged.  He’s so pathetically fucked.

  44. 44.

    zhena gogolia

    January 7, 2020 at 10:48 am

    @Tim C.:

    His rage is entirely focused on the impeachment. Killing the Iranian guy was entirely driven by the need to distract from impeachment. He felt no rage for this person. He probably had no idea who he was.

  45. 45.

    catclub

    January 7, 2020 at 10:49 am

    @germy: The End Times aren’t going to end time themselves.

     

    Obama was called the anti-Christ by the RW christian wackos.  Trump will turn out to be the real deal.

    Just another thing on the list of “I’m NOT Obama” tasks that Trump is following.  See also Obamas,

    “I am not anti-war, I am anti Doing-stupid-things”

  46. 46.

    gene108

    January 7, 2020 at 10:50 am

    @Roger Moore:

    It says something about our country that it’s hard to believe the party that’s run the state into the ground is unpopular enough to start losing elections.

    Doesn’t seem to make a difference in Alabama, Mississippi*, Oklahoma, etc.

    We are in strange times, where effects of policy, and taking care of your state, comes in second place after ideological purity in many parts of the country.

    * If 25% or so of white people in Mississippi voted for Democrats, the state would flip. I think the Democratic share of the white vote is around 10% to 15%, and doesn’t seem to be changing for the better.

  47. 47.

    khead

    January 7, 2020 at 10:50 am

    @Kraux Pas:

    The comment I’ve been throwing out is “Just a reminder: The rest of the world is not an actual participant in our ongoing reality TV show here in the US.”

  48. 48.

    Cheryl Rofer

    January 7, 2020 at 10:51 am

    @Tim C.: That’s the subject of a running discussion I have with North Korea experts. At what point does Trump lash out?

    I wrote about it back in May. It’s important to Trump never to be wrong, never to back down. Lashing out would indicate he was wrong – about his love affair with Kim, about keeping them Iranians in line with this assassination. He’s resisted lashing out through a number of North Korean missile tests. He’s said nothing about Kim’s latest threats to move his nuclear program forward. I suspect the Iranians have some leeway, and I suspect they know it.

    Killing an American seems a trigger for Trump, though.

  49. 49.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    January 7, 2020 at 10:52 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ouch!

    Mr. Krugman can cast some serious shade.

  50. 50.

    Barbara

    January 7, 2020 at 10:53 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I read it and it really was a gut punch:

    From his first days in office, Trump has acted on the apparent belief that he could easily intimidate foreign governments — that they would quickly fold and allow themselves to be humiliated. That is, he imagined that he faced a world of Lindsey Grahams, willing to abandon all dignity at the first hint of a challenge.

    He thinks they are like the piano vendor who sold one of his casinos a significant number of grand pianos only to end up collecting less than 20% on the dollar, and foregoing profits for an entire year, with consequences for himself, his business and his employees.  That the situations are not identical — he doesn’t have “possession” of Iran like he had of the pianos, and so on — just doesn’t seem to enter his apparently very tiny brain.

  51. 51.

    JPL

    January 7, 2020 at 10:59 am

    @Cheryl Rofer: The pictures of the embassy being stormed caused him some angst.   He made sure to point out that it wasn’t his Benghazi.  It’s how it’s perceived on TV. I wish someone had mentioned that of course it wasn’t since Benghazi wasn’t an embassy.

    If he cared about the death of an american, he would have spoken more about the murder in Kenya.

  52. 52.

    Frankensteinbeck

    January 7, 2020 at 11:01 am

    @zhena gogolia:

    Killing the Iranian guy was entirely driven by the need to distract from impeachment.

    I really think it was about his jealousy over how cool everyone thought it was when Obama took out Bin Ladin.  This is his third attempt to replicate that.  Still, the reports that have said he’s still obsessed with Obama have also said he badly wants to distract from impeachment.  It’s not like I can say for certain that the distraction theory is incorrect.  It’s all Trump’s ego anyway.

  53. 53.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 11:02 am

    @JPL: +1.  It’s all about the narrative that they can construct on TV.

    Cheers,

    Scott.

  54. 54.

    catclub

    January 7, 2020 at 11:02 am

    @gene108: Unlike Kansas, which was pretty good for a while. Mississippi’s government does not drive it into the ground, just never finds ways for the state to get off the ground it has been in for decades ( centuries?).

     

    The figure I remember was for the Obama 2008 election. If 17% of white voters went for Obama, he wins Mississippi.  He got about 12%.

  55. 55.

    J R in WV

    January 7, 2020 at 11:05 am

    @laura:

    If I were an international traveler, I think I’d take a pass at booking a room at a trump labelled property.

    Or even in the same neighborhood!!!

  56. 56.

    Frankensteinbeck

    January 7, 2020 at 11:05 am

    @JPL:

    If he cared about the death of an american, he would have spoken more about the murder in Kenya.

    This.  Trump cares about his ego.  Does an event in the news make him look good or bad?  That’s his only concern*.  He would drop a nuclear bomb on American forces if he thought he’d get praised for it, and the only reason he doesn’t drop nukes is that he knows he’d get criticized.

    *Okay, money is also important, but not relevant to this discussion.

  57. 57.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 7, 2020 at 11:10 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I mean, I get that. It’s just that Iran looks like the bigger person here. They were the ones attacked by a vastly more powerful foe and have little ability to seriously strike back, at least militarily. I suppose the response doesn’t necessarily have to be violent

  58. 58.

    Bluegirlfromwyo

    January 7, 2020 at 11:12 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Most striking thing about that column is Krugman description of America as a former superpower. It hurts because it’s true and because the Orange Menace made it so.

  59. 59.

    danielx

    January 7, 2020 at 11:13 am

    If I didn’t detest Pence as I do I could almost feel sorry for him. Trying to explain the policy of a man with the attention span of a chihuahua on meth? Trump doesn’t have policies, he has impulses.

    Just as well say “Whatever Dear Leader says is right and if he says something different five minutes after this speech is over, that’s right too.”

    I used to say Dubya could fart in a microphone and his fans would proclaim it as Churchillian rhetoric. I had no idea of how far that tendency could or would go.

  60. 60.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 11:14 am

    @catclub: My step mom just moved to Starkville MS a few months ago and we visited her for a few days after Thanksgiving.  Just about the only AA people we saw were those leaving a church in a very rural area outside of a national park.  It was weird.  Chicago was very segregated, but MS looking like it was a white state like VT was mind boggling to me.

    Of course, it’s just an anecdote.

    Everyone needs to vote in November!!

    Cheers,

    Scott.

  61. 61.

    kindness

    January 7, 2020 at 11:15 am

    I keep reading about Trump’s drug use.  Not just the crushing and snorting adderall but apparently other powders too when he lets his wig/extensions down in Florida & NYC.  Honestly he does act like a tweeker so I wouldn’t be shocked if it were true.  But if so, you know what America really needs?  Someone to hack the security systems of these buildings and copy the video footage of Trump snorting up lines and put it out on the intertubes for the rest of the world to see what a wreck the man is.  Where are those black/white hat people when you really need them?

  62. 62.

    TomatoQueen

    January 7, 2020 at 11:16 am

    This morning’s guidance via Human Resources (it’s not at all clear who this might be btw as there is no longer an HR office in my 24-story SSA-only building) from the Office of Special Counsel, which we’re spozed to trust: “….

    A Message to All SSA Employees

    Subject:  Whistleblower Protections and Prohibited Personnel Practices 

     

    Federal employees have the right to be free from prohibited personnel practices, including retaliation for whistleblowing.   The purpose of this message is to ensure that you are aware of and understand whistleblower protections available to federal employees. 

     

    Whistleblowing is the disclosure of information that an employee reasonably believes evidences:  a violation of any law, rule or regulation; gross mismanagement; gross waste of funds; an abuse of authority; a substantial and specific danger to public health or safety; or censorship related to scientific research or analysis.  Employees may make lawful disclosures to anyone, including, for example, management officials, the Inspector General of an agency, and/or the Office of the Special Counsel (OSC).

     

    The U.S. OSC is an independent agency that protects federal employees from prohibited personnel practices, including whistleblower retaliation and unlawful hiring practices.  OSC also provides an independent, secure channel for disclosing and resolving wrongdoing in federal agencies.

     

    Please review the fact sheet, Your Rights as a Federal Employee, which provides detailed information on prohibited personnel practices and employees’ rights to file complaints with OSC.   Additionally, we encourage you to review Know Your Rights When Reporting Wrongs, which describes different avenues for making whistleblower disclosures as federal employees.  More information is also available on the OSC website. 

     

    We are committed to making sure that all SSA employees are aware of their rights as well as the safeguards that are in place to protect them….” 

     

     

  63. 63.

    NotMax

    January 7, 2020 at 11:24 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    it’s a cyber world now, for better or worse. Cast your eyes in that direction.

  64. 64.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 7, 2020 at 11:26 am

    Aaron Rupar‏Verified account@atrupar
    REPORTER: Can you be specific about the imminent threat that Soleimani posed?

    POMPEO: “We know what happened at the end of last year & ultimately led to the death of an American. If you are looking for immanence, look no further than the days that led up to the strike.”

    So… the fact that a US facility was shelled two weeks earlier proves that Soleimani was about to conduct an “imminent” attack that his death stopped?
    I don’t want to be callous about the killing of that contractor, but three Americans– two contractors and a soldier– were killed in Kenya, by a group linked (at least in the media) to Al Qaeda.

  65. 65.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 7, 2020 at 11:29 am

    @danielx:

    If I didn’t detest Pence as I do I could almost feel sorry for him.

    See also the Large and Extremely Damaged Adult Children.
    Even Lindsey Graham, who gets a devastating write-up in a recent Rolling Stone.

  66. 66.

    Major Major Major Major

    January 7, 2020 at 11:39 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They’re already ditching the nuclear agreement, which while a significant escalation is not particularly acute, since it was expected anyway and all it will do is reduce the “lead time” for them to create a bomb. Which matters, but it’s not the same scale as like, a surprise nuclear test

    Perhaps this is totally wrong; we have an actual expert in the thread if so!

  67. 67.

    WaterGirl

    January 7, 2020 at 11:40 am

    @Betty Cracker: Can we please include all the fucking enablers?

    Even the ones who pat themselves on the back for stopping Trump from some madness here or there, while allowing 95% of the crap to still flow by?

    I think “Anonymous”, who wrote the letter and now has an upcoming book, should be hung out to dry and should be a pariah forever.

  68. 68.

    Cowgirl in the Sandi

    January 7, 2020 at 11:45 am

    OT but I was wondering if anyone has heard from Steve in the ATL.  He hasn’t posted for a while and I hope he is ok.

  69. 69.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 7, 2020 at 11:46 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    WTF?! I never heard about this. I thought Europe and the other major players staying in was enough to save the deal?! Within the next 10-15 years there will be a limited nuclear exchange in the middle east, mark my words. Wasn’t Saudi Arabia looking to get some equipment ostensibly for civilian nuclear power but could be used to make nuclear weapons?

  70. 70.

    zhena gogolia

    January 7, 2020 at 11:47 am

    @Cowgirl in the Sandi:

    I haven’t seen anything from him lately. It is worrying.

  71. 71.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    January 7, 2020 at 11:47 am

    @Roger Moore:

    A power loss to several Trump towers at once would be interesting. Would Trump do something violent in return for that?

  72. 72.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 11:51 am

    @zhena gogolia:

    I think he’s still around:

    @WaterGirl: I also post under the names “BillinGlendaleCA”, “Amir Khalid”, and “MomSense”

    rofl.

    Seriously, I hope he’s just lurking and getting used to the idiosyncrasies of the new place.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  73. 73.

    Jay C

    January 7, 2020 at 11:51 am

    @MattF:

    Disagree (somewhat) about that assessment re the Kansas Senate race next year: Kris Kobach, however phenomenally unpopular he might be, is still a likely favorite: as long as he can win the primary, which is probable, as (Pompeo aside) there seem (at least AFAICT) no good statewide candidates with the (R) Party chops and name recognition.

    I looked it up a while back: since becoming a state in (?) 1858, Kansas has sent a grand total of three (3) Democrats to the US Senate: the last one elected in 1932.  I’m not sure 2020 will be much different.

  74. 74.

    Kent

    January 7, 2020 at 11:53 am

    @Frankensteinbeck:That hate is enormously, fantastically powerful as a voting motivation, especially in rural areas, but not totally invincible?

    Both Klobach and Pompeo have gotten out too far over their skis by getting too deeply and obviously involved in Washington swampland.  Kansans and other western Republicans like them some local full service hate.  Note some long-distance phone-it-in from a cushy DC lobbying gig hate.  They like their hate home-cooked.

    I expect there are plenty of local grifters who are more than willing to take up the slack.

  75. 75.

    MisterForkbeard

    January 7, 2020 at 11:54 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They… sort of pulled out of the deal, IIRC? As in, they’re still letting the inspectors in but are adding new centrifuges. But that’s a couple of days old. It might be worse now.

    But the “other countries saving it” made some sense when the US wasn’t being completely belligerent. Europe could continue to provide sanction relief and the US could go suck an egg. They provided some relief from our actions.

    This is basically because Europe can’t restrain the US, and because Iran is treating the Western world as a single unit in their response. The sanctions themselves are also less important – at this point, China and Russia are both totally happy to ignore the sanctions.

    But then Cheryl’s the expert and I might be talking about of my ass here. :/

  76. 76.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 11:56 am

    @Jay C:

    OTOH, WSJ (from September):

    Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach trails Democrat Barry Grissom by 10 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup for Kansas’ open Senate seat in 2020, according to internal GOP polling data reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

    The previously unpublished findings reveal why some Republicans are deeply concerned that a Kobach candidacy could cost the party a Senate seat in Kansas—and why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been pushing so hard for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a former congressman from Wichita, to challenge Mr. Kobach for the GOP nomination.

    (Emphasis added.)

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  77. 77.

    Kent

    January 7, 2020 at 11:58 am

    @Jay C: I looked it up a while back: since becoming a state in (?) 1858, Kansas has sent a grand total of three (3) Democrats to the US Senate: the last one elected in 1932.  I’m not sure 2020 will be much different.

    But a lot of that is civil war history and what they called “waving the bloody shirt”.   Kansas was brutalized by the civil war.  It doesn’t really reflect modern politics today.

  78. 78.

    MattF

    January 7, 2020 at 11:59 am

    @Jay C: Not really disputing that. But Kobach is a no-foolin’ fascist, and everyone knows it. That’s a negative, even in Kansas.

  79. 79.

    Baud

    January 7, 2020 at 12:00 pm

    @Another Scott: That was over a month ago.

  80. 80.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 7, 2020 at 12:15 pm

    Brian Schatz‏Verified account @brianschatz 16h16 hours ago
    Hey ⁦@ChrisMurphyCT⁩ let’s see if we can raise some money for Barbara Bollier, who is a very impressive state Senator running for the United States Senate in Kansas?

    I’m gonna have to know more about her before I donate, but I’m glad to see Dems are on it

  81. 81.

    WaterGirl

    January 7, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    @Cowgirl in the Sandi:  @zhena gogolia:  @Another Scott:

    I went to that link and realized that it’s been a month, so I just sent  him a note.  No idea if his BJ email is real, but we’ll see if I hear something back.

  82. 82.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 7, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    @NotMax:

    We are living in a cyber world and I am a cyber : D

    But yeah, that could definitely happen. That seems like what the future most likely holds when it comes to existential threats

  83. 83.

    WaterGirl

    January 7, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    @Baud: Posted my comment below, and the first think I saw afterwards was this comment from you.

    A month seemed like a long time to me, too.

  84. 84.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 7, 2020 at 12:22 pm

    @MisterForkbeard:

    Ok, thanks

    and because Iran is treating the Western world as a single unit in their response.

    That doesn’t seem fair to Europe on Iran’s part

    The sanctions themselves are also less important – at this point, China and Russia are both totally happy to ignore the sanctions.

    This is all Trump’s fault

  85. 85.

    Jay C

    January 7, 2020 at 12:23 pm

    @Another Scott:

    I sincerely hope this poll is truly indicative of voting sentiment in Kansas – and Jeez, Kobach must leave some vile political reek in his wake – but we still have eternity eleven months to go: a lot can happen.

    Though I would love to see the Dem candidate do a “Doug Jones” on Kobach (or any GOPer) – flipping a Senate seat in KANSAS?  Sweet.

    A very long shot, but with Pompeo out, it looks to be veering from “impossible” to merely “very improbable”. Progress!

  86. 86.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 12:26 pm

    Meanwhile, …

    At the cabinet meeting today Iraq PM formally acknowledged receipt of this letter “signed” and considered it as a withdrawal decision. "We are don’t deal with statements in the media, we deal only with official letter” two senior officials from PM office said. pic.twitter.com/aOgStdeqyd— Mustafa Salim (@Mustafa_salimb) January 7, 2020

    Hmm…

    It’s always worse than we think. :-/

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  87. 87.

    burnspbesq

    January 7, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    @MattF:

    I was looking forward to watching Pompeo and Kobach go at it, not that the Dems were likely to benefit from it.

  88. 88.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    In other news, …

    Phys.org:

    The most direct and strongest evidence for the accelerating universe with dark energy is provided by the distance measurements using type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) for the galaxies at high redshift. This result is based on the assumption that the corrected luminosity of SN Ia through the empirical standardization would not evolve with redshift.

    New observations and analysis made by a team of astronomers at Yonsei University (Seoul, South Korea), together with their collaborators at Lyon University and KASI, show, however, that this key assumption is most likely in error. The team has performed very high-quality (signal-to-noise ratio ~175) spectroscopic observations to cover most of the reported nearby early-type host galaxies of SN Ia, from which they obtained the most direct and reliable measurements of population ages for these host galaxies. They find a significant correlation between SN luminosity and stellar population age at a 99.5 percent confidence level. As such, this is the most direct and stringent test ever made for the luminosity evolution of SN Ia. Since SN progenitors in host galaxies are getting younger with redshift (look-back time), this result inevitably indicates a serious systematic bias with redshift in SN cosmology. Taken at face values, the luminosity evolution of SN is significant enough to question the very existence of dark energy. When the luminosity evolution of SN is properly taken into account, the team found that the evidence for the existence of dark energy simply goes away (see Figure 1).

    Commenting on the result, Prof. Young-Wook Lee (Yonsei Univ., Seoul), who led the project said, “Quoting Carl Sagan, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, but I am not sure we have such extraordinary evidence for dark energy. Our result illustrates that dark energy from SN cosmology, which led to the 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics, might be an artifact of a fragile and false assumption.”

    […]

    (Emphasis added.)

    The usual caveats apply, but the bold text is always good to keep in mind.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  89. 89.

    catclub

    January 7, 2020 at 12:32 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I never heard about this. I thought Europe and the other major players staying in was enough to save the deal?!

     

    The word of the day is feckless.  The Europeans kind of said they would enable a facility to allow trade to continue with Iran. It has to be outside the dollar system which is controlled by the people who print the dollars.

    They have kind of done a little of that, but not enough.

    if they really wanted to a)keep the agreement and b)deal with the costs of opposing the US by establishing the trade system.  They would do it.  hence… feckless.

  90. 90.

    randy khan

    January 7, 2020 at 12:32 pm

    @Kraux Pas:

    Something you’re forgetting, though. His limited attention-span and lack of follow-through only matter up to a point. Iran’s actions will be important here, they are not without agency.

    It’s not entirely unreasonable to hope that they have been following the North Korea saga and recognize this.  The specific things they’ve done (notably the remarkably limited pull back from the nuclear deal, which even contained a provision for them to return to its strictures if European nations did certain things) since the assassination suggest that they could, in fact, be thinking this way.

  91. 91.

    randy khan

    January 7, 2020 at 12:34 pm

    @Jay C:

    I sincerely hope this poll is truly indicative of voting sentiment in Kansas – and Jeez, Kobach must leave some vile political reek in his wake – but we still have eternity eleven months to go: a lot can happen.

    If you want to have some hope, remember that the current governor of Kansas is a Democrat (and a woman).  She beat some guy named Kobach.

  92. 92.

    catclub

    January 7, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    @Another Scott: wow. I am an idiot, and even I had my doubts about using the ‘standard candle” SN 1a assumptions. Now it sounds like people with evidence are bringing that down.

  93. 93.

    West of the Cascades

    January 7, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    @Another Scott: @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Apparently Grissom dropped out of the Democratic race for KS Senate in October 2019 (something about issues with his past as a US Attorney?), and then he immediately endorsed Bollier.

    She’s a state senator who switched from R to D in December 2018 – probably someone with a chance to win in Kansas. From ballotpedia:

    On December 12, 2018, Bollier announced that she was switching her party affiliation from Republican to Democrat. She said, “Morally, the [Republican Party] is not going where my compass resides. I’m looking forward to being in a party that represents the ideals that I do, including Medicaid expansion and funding our K-12 schools.”[3]

    In July 2018, Bollier was removed from her position as vice chair of the Public Health and Welfare committee because she endorsed Democratic candidates Tom Niermann and Laura Kelly in the 2018 elections. Senate President Susan Wagle (R) said in a statement that “it is unacceptable to betray members of your own party by publicly endorsing leftist Democrats.”[4] Bollier told The Wichita Eagle that her support for the two candidates was not partisan.

  94. 94.

    catclub

    January 7, 2020 at 12:40 pm

    @MisterForkbeard: This is basically because Europe can’t restrain the US, and because Iran is treating the Western world as a single unit in their response.

     

    I disagree. Iran clearly wants the Europeans to act independently of the US.  They see them as at least potentially independent of US actions.

    The Europeans are not exactly stepping up.

  95. 95.

    burnspbesq

    January 7, 2020 at 12:44 pm

    @NotMax:

    it’s a cyber world now, for better or worse. Cast your eyes in that direction.

    And our electric power grid is such a soft target.

  96. 96.

    MattF

    January 7, 2020 at 12:55 pm

    @Another Scott: This is major. I’m a believer in dark matter (and, yeah, Vera Rubin should have won a Nobel for it) but dark energy always seemed shakier.

  97. 97.

    WaterGirl

    January 7, 2020 at 1:01 pm

    @West of the Cascades: Your comment had more than 7 links in it,  which automatically throws a comment into moderation.

    Just wanted to let you know.

  98. 98.

    StringOnAStick

    January 7, 2020 at 1:04 pm

    @randy khan: As far as Iran’s response to the killing of Sulimani  goes, playing it carefully on their side gives them the best chance they’ve had to basically take over Iraq, especially if continued stupid moves by tRump piss off the Iraqi government even more.

    looking at it from the outside over the years since the Iran hostage crisis, you have to admit that Iran has held its own quite well against the West and against all the Sunni Arab states plus Israel.  The Shia of Iran have been on the Sunni kill list for generation after generation, have managed to persist and now thanks to the Tang Emperor ‘s ragegasim their country has been brought to a state of unity that had been increasingly tested by citizen unrest over the harms caused to them by the sanctions.  A wise Iranian leadership would certainly notice that letting our idiot in chief continue to rage and further piss off the Iraqis leadership is the easiest path they’ve had in decades to take over Iraq.

    Trump campaigned on getting us out of these conflicts.  I’m pretty damned sure he meant to do that (recognizing that he meant nothing more than a campaign slogan) by “winning” with a total war approach, not by clumsy bullying that hands the strategic advantage to Iran.  What Dubya out in motion will be realized by the Narcissist in Chief.  It’s going to take one he’ll of a PR campaign to turn this fuck up into a positive for the R’s, which they will certainly try to do

  99. 99.

    Avalune

    January 7, 2020 at 1:06 pm

    We’re taking our foreign policy q’s from Cardi B. Coooool.

  100. 100.

    Immanentize

    January 7, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    @burnspbesq: Our “grid” is actually three grids that run north to south and do not back each other up east to west except in the smallest ways.  This makes for three very soft, creaky, ancient, bad security targets.  This was one of Obama’s priorities in 2008.  But, tan suit.

  101. 101.

    J R in WV

    January 7, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    I just got a call from a woman running for Congress from WV’s second district, currently a seat help by Alex Mooney, a carpet bagger and RWNJ who couldn’t get elected in his home state. I asked for an email with her details. If I like the sound of her, I’ll pass a link along to the Jackals.

    Only Dem declared in the district so far, she tells me there are 5 teachers in the district running for the state leg, which she hopes will pull more progressive voters out. We love to help out folks who can flip a RWNJ’s district!

  102. 102.

    Richard Guhl

    January 7, 2020 at 1:17 pm

    Early polling has Barbara Bollier beating Kris Kobach. I’ve sent a donation to her campaign. Things get much simpler for the Democrats if we can pick up the Kansas Senate seat.

  103. 103.

    artem1s

    January 7, 2020 at 2:00 pm

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    his jealousy over how cool everyone thought it was when Obama took out Bin Ladin

    and Obama did it while looking cool at the correspondence dinner dissing Donald.

  104. 104.

    Bill Arnold

    January 7, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    @kindness:

    I keep reading about Trump’s drug use. Not just the crushing and snorting adderall but apparently other powders too when he lets his wig/extensions down in Florida & NYC.

    Made me look. Didn’t find anything (very brief search) except for Addera11 and “real” Sudafed, but this is funny about DJT and Ivanka:
    Ex-Apprentice Staffer Noel Casler Speaks Out: ‘Trump’s A Raging Drug Addict’ – Noel Casler, a former Apprentice staffer, did a radio interview where he provided some truly terrifying insight into Donald Trump and Ivanka Trump (Red Painter, 1/06/20)

    …He’s a 73 year old drug addict. It takes him three hours to get going in the morning….and now he has degenerated to the point where he doesn’t leave the residence. He’s taking most of those meetings when he’s at the White House in his private quarters.”

    Bold mine:

    “If you are scared of Trump, you should be terrified of Ivanka. I think she’s the brains behind the operation. I’ve seen her manipulate him. It’s all an act. Down to that phony voice she uses. That’s a put on. That’s how he likes her to sound. Her real voice is a lot lower and she curses like a sailor…she’s engineering herself to take over. Ivanka wants to rule us all someday and I’m not being…it’s not just hyperbole….she wants her face on money….so people should be very worried about her.”

  105. 105.

    Drdavechemist

    January 7, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    @Another Scott:  Not sure if anyone cares, but I’ve always been skeptical about the reliability of the supernova measurements. I also recall a cartoon showing a museum with “exhibits” about all the stuff that scientists speculated on in the absence of solid physical evidence: phlogiston, caloric, and the luminiferous aether in particular come to mind, and to me dark energy falls in the same category. I’m a very amateur astronomer, though, so what do I know.

  106. 106.

    Another Scott

    January 7, 2020 at 8:50 pm

    @Drdavechemist: I saw a talk given by one of the people who won the Nobel for this work.  It all seemed like a surprising, but maybe plausible (these guys do this for a living after all, and surely considered all the other possible explanations), story.  Until he showed a graph of the observed red shift and the expected red shift if there were no dark energy.  And the separation between the curves was really small, especially considering the error bars and assumptions…

    I’m no expert on this stuff either, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they let their theories get way ahead of their data.

    Still, it’s interesting to see knowledge advance and it’s another illustration of how good science works – it’s eventually self-correcting.  And they may still be right when more data and better analysis is available…

    Cheers,

    Scott.

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