Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

The GOP is a fucking disgrace.

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Consistently wrong since 2002

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Second rate reporter says what?

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

In my day, never was longer.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

He really is that stupid.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Wag the Dog Open Thread: First, Do No (More) Harm…

Wag the Dog Open Thread: First, Do No (More) Harm…

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The GOP prefers to be kept in the dark, and fed copious doses of BS. Call them the Mushroom Caucus!

Poor Ukraine. So far from God, so close to Putin (and Putin’s puppets)…


Reader Interactions

131Comments

  2. 2.

    opiejeanne

    Why would they stop paying the ICAO? I mean, I know they’re idiots but what is the idea behind this?

  3. 3.

    Kamala.Harris.2020

    If only the House had some more concrete way to influence what the executive branch does with the Armed Forces.

  4. 4.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Maybe killing Suleimani is an Ozymandias style opp to make Iraqis of all sects come together to tell Iran and the US to fuck off

    I saw a headline the other day about Soleimani’s popularity in the region not being limited to Shi’ites, but I closed the tab without reading it. I was wondering how much appeal he would have across sectarian lines, especially as someone killed by westerners/Americans.

     

    the ‘crossfire’ stuff: are they accusing Hennessy of trying to promote a CNN show? Is Crossfire still on the air?

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    @Mnemosyne: When I was little, my dad used to pay me a nickel every night for sleeping under the top sheet.

    I wonder how much it would cost me if I was willing to pay a nickel every time someone here didn’t engage with a troll? :-)

  7. 7.

    Mnemosyne

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    They’re trying to claim that there is no connection between the US assassinating a top Iranian general and the Iranian military going on high alert that resulted in what appears to be a deadly mistake.

    It’s a patently stupid thing for them to say, which is why they just keep blurting “crossfire!” over and over again.

  8. 8.

    jl

    @opiejeanne: The Trumpsters are mindless, there is no real thought behind what they do. Trump, besides being mindless, is completely ignorant about the world, so even if he were not mindless, it wouldn’t make any difference.

    I’ll try to remember to call Trump and Trumpsters mindless from now on to avoid insulting idiots.

  11. 11.

    jl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Soleimani played an important role in Iranian allied forces defeating most of ISI, along with our erstwhile Kurdish allies. I think a large majority of Sunnis hated ISIL. So, that might explain his recent popularity across sectarian lines.

  14. 14.

    Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray

    Big Malarkey is mistaken, the previous plane was Malaysian, not Ukrainian.

  16. 16.

    joel hanes

    @WaterGirl:

    pay a nickel every time someone here didn’t engage with a troll?

    I’d be flying first class and vacationing in Gstaad and Ibiza, because I’ve been commenting on this blog for more than a dozen years, and have a nearly spotless record of non-engagement.

  18. 18.

    Patricia Kayden

    Canada is a big country. We have big hearts but a small population. Nearly everyone killed was an immigrant. But nobody's talking about that.Our headlines focus on the fact that they were Canadians, with deep roots here, who touched countless lives.The way it should be. pic.twitter.com/UOasN5uJXH— Muhammad Lila (@MuhammadLila) January 9, 2020

  19. 19.

    WaterGirl

    @joel hanes: I suppose my grateful thanks means nothing when compared to a first-class trip to an exotic vacation spot, but you have my thanks anyway.

  20. 20.

    FlyingToaster

    @WaterGirl: Sometimes you have to verify it’s a troll, and not a teenager.

    I used to just post the recipe for Habañero Hot Sauce.  The trolls would ignore me, and the teenagers would talk back.

    I like teenagers.

  21. 21.

    WaterGirl

    @Aleta: I have no idea.  I was little enough that it was just a thrill to get all those nickels and then put them into my piggy bank.

  23. 23.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    @Kamala.Harris.2020: Like this?

    House passes measure seeking to limit Trump’s military actions against Iran

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the resolution would send a clear message that the president shouldn’t take further military action against Iran without Congress’ approval.

    NBC News via Google

    ETA – I have ascertained that you think there is some more concrete action that the House could take instead. Care to enlighten the rest of us, instead of smugly insinuating BS?

  25. 25.

    Anne Laurie

    @Gin & Tonic, Duke of Tanqueray: Big Malarkey is mistaken, the previous plane was Malaysian, not Ukrainian.

    You’re right!  But, IIRC, it (MH-17?) was shot down over Ukraine, by absolutely-not-Russian forces, during Russia’s not-invasion of *the* Ukraine.  Is my memory correct on that?

  26. 26.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @WaterGirl: no, I genuinely thought the reference to Jeff Zucker meant they were trying to make some accusation about promoting a show, that apparently isn’t on anymore. But Wolf Blitzer is I gather still there so CNN often feels a bit like the TVLand of news to me.

  28. 28.

    CarolPW

    @WaterGirl: ?? If he had not paid you, what would you have done, slept under the bottom sheet (although in this administration sleeping under the bed would be smart)? Not sheet-shaming here, because as far as I am concerned you are a goddess for what you have done on the site and you can sleep wherever or however you want.

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    @opiejeanne: The thinking is that it is ripping the US off. What do we need it for, we already have the NTSB. So why pay for an international version. Same argument he has for everything.

  30. 30.

    trollhattan

    @Anne Laurie:

    Was brought down by a Russian-built BUK surface-to-air missile purportedly launched by Ukrainian rebels but despite that fig leaf probably operated by Russians.

  31. 31.

    WaterGirl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Oh, I see.  They are suggesting the plane got caught in the crossfire.

    Sorry, I saw Susan Hennesey (sp?) with “crossfire” and my mind jumped back to the Lawfare podcast where she was cracking jokes about the title of the FBI investigation.

  33. 33.

    Mnemosyne

    @WaterGirl:

    Honestly, I can’t remember the other nyms he’s used. ARBG is the one I remember because it’s short and pithy. I know there were at least three nyms between that one and this one. ?

  34. 34.

    mrmoshpotato

    Apparently Doug Collins had an uncredited role in Jurassic Park.  You all remember Jeff Goldblum’s comment about him.

  35. 35.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Kamala.Harris.2020: The Democratic majority in the House don’t have anything that is politically viable because the Democrats only control that one chamber. If they zero out the Defense Department budget or just the Overseas Contingency Operations budget, the Senate Republican majority won’t go along with it and then every Republican at every level of government from special municipal districts to the President will run on demagoguing the Democrats for betraying our Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and/or Marines. The only weapon the Democrats have here is inadequate for the fight they are in.

  37. 37.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: No, the codeword designator for the investigation into the President’s 2016 campaign and its relationship with Russia was Crossfire Hurricane. And they think she’s trying to push crossfire back into a trending status so that it will bring the Crossfire Hurricane hashtag back to the top on social media. They believe this is some sort of coordinated influence operation, spearheaded by CNN’s Jeff Zucker, and promoted by people that are CNN contributors who are opposed to the President like Hennessy.

  39. 39.

    Mnemosyne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Which is why Pelosi is wisely concentrating on legislation that would limit Trump’s war powers rather than making some kind of sweeping anti-military move. Turns out she’s not actually dumb! ?

  40. 40.

    WaterGirl

    @CarolPW: I hated covers!  I still do. Too many layers, too heavy, I feel trapped.

    Even now I sleep without a top sheet, with only a lightweight down  comforter or lightweight silk comforter.

    We lost my dad 25 years ago yesterday, so it has been a very, very long time since i was paid my nickel.

    edit: To be more specific, I would not have slept under my top sheet or my wool blanket.  Just there in my “shorty” pajamas, as we called them back then.

  42. 42.

    WaterGirl

    @Mnemosyne: I wasn’t going to say anything, but I was impressed that you sussed that out.

    The other one might partially rhyme with something you probably use at night before you go to bed.

  43. 43.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Watching the O’Donnell program, kind of amusing to see DiFi and that well-intentioned (bless his heart) nonentity Chris Coons backtrack on telling Nancy Pelosi how to do her job.

    I do wonder at this point if she’s gaming out the timing of this with the SOTU, especially since Schiff said he’s not gonna take another run at a subpoena for Bolton

  44. 44.

    CarolPW

    @WaterGirl: In the winter I keep my bedroom really cold, and love sleeping under a really big pile of blankets. In the summer, even with the air conditioner on (which is set pretty high) it’s just me on top of the sheets. Thankfully no one but the dog is here to decide whether I’m doing it right or not.

  46. 46.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: It is even dumber than that. The targeting software for the high end anti-missile defense systems that we, our allies, and our enemies all use is notoriously finicky. The targeting software for the Patriot system is made by Raytheon. The entire system, hardware and software together, is so temperamental that it has to be oriented in the right direction and babysat or it will miss incoming, which is what appeared to happen in Saudi Arabia last year. Between late 2003 and about 2008 or so, the targeting software was so messed up that we shot down over a dozen of our own fighters over Iraq because the Patriot system couldn’t deconflict them from inbound ballistic missiles. I would suspect that Iran’s system, which I think was purchased from Russia, has the same limitations and problems.

  48. 48.

    Adam L Silverman

    @WaterGirl: I have all of that information in hard copy. I’ll go ahead and put our returning friend back in the box I shoved him in last time.

  49. 49.

    WaterGirl

    @CarolPW: You sound like my sister.  She will sleep in a nightgown (eek!) and socks (eek!) and a sweater (eek!) then put on blanket after blanket after blanket.

    I hate feeling tangled up under the covers.  I have decided it’s because I was a breach baby and I was all tangled up in the umbilical cord.  That’s also my theory for why I don’t want anything tight around my wrists or my neck.  As weirdnesses go, I guess those aren’t so bad! :-)

  51. 51.

    Bill Arnold

    @Mnemosyne:

    They’re trying to claim that there is no connection between the US assassinating a top Iranian general and the Iranian military going on high alert that resulted in what appears to be a deadly mistake.

    Republican hive-mind[1] members have always had problems understanding causality. This goes back decades.
    Donald J. Trump has civilian blood on his hands, including Canadian and UK blood.

    [1] May a better, creepier biological analogy would have Trump as an obligate social parasite of the Republican Party:
    Rank integration in dominance hierarchies of host colonies by the paper wasp social parasite Polistes sulcifer (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)
    Polistes sulcifer

    Polistes sulcifer is a species of paper wasp in the genus Polistes that is found in Italy and Croatia. It is one of only three known Polistes obligate social parasites, sometimes referred to as “cuckoo paper wasps”, and its host is the congeneric species Polistes dominula. As an obligate social parasite, this species has lost the ability to build nests, and relies on the host workers to raise its brood. P. sulcifer females use brute force, followed by chemical mimicry in order to successfully usurp a host nest and take over as the queen.

  53. 53.

    Adam L Silverman

    @WaterGirl: I’d have done it faster, but for some reason the tool to ban someone has been moved and I had to go find it through process of elimination.

  58. 58.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: It won’t even be allowed to go into committee in the Senate. McConnell is in control and it’ll never see a Senate Armed Services Committee markup, let alone a floor vote. The bill is dead. It died as soon as they passed it.

  61. 61.

    lamh36

    He found a VHS from 1994 of a baby’s first steps. Then, he set out to find the baby via @TODAYshow

    Over a year after buying a VHS from a Goodwill in Texas, an Austin filmmaker discovered it held a precious home video of a baby boy’s first steps in 1994.

    Jim McKay was determined to find the family and somehow return the clip to them.

    It ultimately led to a special meeting on TODAY Wednesday, when the boy in the video, now a 26-year-old educator from Austin named TyRe Alexander, got to say thanks to McKay in person for returning a cherished family memory…

  63. 63.

    WaterGirl

    @Aleta: Thank you.

    When he died, people of course sent all sorts of big flower arrangements, as people do.  My godmother sent only a boutonnières for his lapel, with a note that said “To a true gentleman”

    Such a lovely thing for her to do.

  64. 64.

    Ken

    @Adam L Silverman: So are we paying Raytheon to iron out those little bugs?

    (Which come to think of it might be the problem.  “Hmmm, as long as the thing doesn’t work right, they keep sending us money…”)

  67. 67.

    WaterGirl

    @zhena gogolia: Please please please let Trump have crossed the line that makes some of these Republican pieces of crap stand up and do their jobs.

    Does god/dog love us this much?

  68. 68.

    WaterGirl

    @Aleta: I hear him in me sometimes when I write about how we treat one another on BJ.

    “Why can’t you girls get along?”  my dad would say to my two sisters and I, surely about a million times. :-)

    I have been thinking of you and hoping you are doing okay.

  70. 70.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Ken: As far as I know we did. And they, by and large, are. The systems are better than nothing, but they have the same problem that all missile defense systems we’ve conceptualized and tried to build have: physics. We’re basically trying to shoot a bullet out of the air with another bullet. It is why almost every successful use of Israel’s Iron Dome involves hitting the inbound missiles and rockets from the side, instead of head on. The head on attempts almost always fail.

  71. 71.

    Kent

    @Ken: Install a few Patriot batteries around the Raytheon corporate jet each time it takes off and see how quickly they get those glitches ironed out.

  73. 73.

    Felanius Kootea

    @WaterGirl: Is it Brickley Paiste?  That’s another troll who loved to shit on black people just like this one.  I think they are the same person.  Do I get a prize?

  74. 74.

    Aleta

    @WaterGirl: Thanks!  Hope you’re feeling better too. I appreciate your style of respect and kindness in the comments.  And ignoring trolls instead of banning.

  79. 79.

    Mnemosyne

    @Aleta:

    You’ve gotta be a truly obnoxious and bigoted troll for Cole to agree you should be banned. ARBG has managed to pass that threshold multiple times using multiple nyms. Sometimes you’ve gotta ban the chaos agents.

  82. 82.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Hayes Brown‏Verified account@HayesBrown23m23 minutes ago
    “Mr. Trump, after the strike, told associates he was under pressure to deal with Gen. Soleimani from GOP senators he views as important supporters in his coming impeachment trial in the Senate, associates said.”

    “after the strike” (quote from a WSJ link so no link because of their firewall, and their owner)

  83. 83.

    WaterGirl

    @Felanius Kootea:

    Do I get a prize?

    You can get some good looking desserts, plus CatCake (!) if you use the pie filter.  Not sure that can be considered a prize exactly, but yes, you have earned one.

  84. 84.

    WaterGirl

    @lamh36: That’s some fucking bullshit.

    They should all go, and then should all suddenly find that they need to tie their shoelaces.

  87. 87.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    The Daily BeastVerified account @thedailybeast
    Jared Kushner absent from Iran meetings: NYT

    Ben Collins‏Verified account @oneunderscore__ 20m20 minutes ago
    The polling’s bad.

  88. 88.

    CarolPW

    @WaterGirl: Ha! And you sound like my sister. Although I have never slept in a sweater, in the winter I do sleep in a turtleneck, long underwear bottoms and socks. On the other hand, when my sister visits in winter (in eastern Washington State where it can get fucking cold) in the guest bedroom she closes the heater vent, cracks the window open, and sleeps in a t-shirt and pj bottoms under the sheet. Her little doggie sleeps under the comforter though, because he is not dumb.

  89. 89.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @WaterGirl: certainly should be, but (without having read the article for reasons given) I’m sure all the quotes are anonymous and good luck changing that. The information’s out there, does anyone doubt it? Again, how do you make people care?

  91. 91.

    Kattails

    @zhena gogolia: Could you soften that “no” just a little bit? Like “I’m so sorry sweetie, as much as you totally deserve it I’m afraid it’s just impossible, but here’s my hankie and let me pat your back”.

    Oh, I see she took it pretty well, perhaps just a few well-covered-up sniffles. ;-)

  92. 92.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    The polling’s bad.

    To be semi-serious, from what I’ve read of Jared Kushner’s management style, he’s either schmoozing to sell something or he makes a buzzword bingo statement and walks out to leave the lackeys to implement his genius plan.  He wouldn’t want to attend any official Iran meeting in the US government, although I won’t be surprised if he’s whispering something incomprehensibly stupid into Trump’s ear thinking what a genius he is for ignoring the bureaucrats and going direct to the boss.

  93. 93.

    mrmoshpotato

    @WaterGirl:

    Please please please let Trump have crossed the line that makes some of these Republican pieces of crap stand up and do their jobs. 

    LOL I have some bad news about the past 40+ years…

  95. 95.

    WaterGirl

    @Kattails: I know!  That was kind of brutal. :-)

    I almost made a crack about hoping she never has to give me bad news about my house, my dog, a job, or anything like that.

  98. 98.

    Another Scott

    In other news, about the historic changes in Virginia’s legislature, we go to Wonkette:

    We’ve often argued that Democrats need to play hardball, and the new Democratic Senate majority in Virginia is showing how it’s done. Yesterday, Republican state Sen. Amanda Chase learned she was serving on just one committee — local government — after the Democrats approved committee assignments. She used to serve on three more — education and health; privileges and elections; and transportation. She’s the only senator to serve on just one committee and the only Republican not in their first term who isn’t on at least three.

    But no one likes Amanda Chase for the complicated reason that she’s terrible. Chase, who likes to pack a visible pistol on the Senate floor, ran a Facebook ad last September stating that she “wasn’t afraid to shoot down gun groups.” She later claimed the digital media company she hired “screwed up” her original ad. In July, she posted on her official Facebook page: “It’s those who are naive and unprepared that end up raped. Sorry but I’m not going to be a statistic.” Facebook hasn’t done Chase many favors.

    Chase capped off an awesome year politically with her withdrawal from the Republican caucus. She vowed to continue voting Republican and doing awful Republican things but she just couldn’t stomach fellow Republican Tommy Norment, who was re-elected Senate minority leader. This was probably more a “you can’t fire me, I quit” situation after the Chesterfield GOP expelled her from membership in September. She’d refused to support the Republican candidate for sheriff.

    But Chase isn’t the only Republican to get (rightly) marginalized in the new Democratic world order. Democrats have a 21 to 19 edge in the Senate and are dominating the committee assignments accordingly. Notably, there are 12 Democrats and just three Republicans on the Commerce and Labor committee, and the Finance and Appropriations committee has 11 Democrats and just five scraggly-ass Republicans. Minority Leader Norment is shocked and appalled.

    NORMENT: A 12-3 distribution seems a little disproportionate to me.

    Isn’t it, though? Democrats don’t dispute this. In fact, they point to how Republicans ran things when they were in power. The Commerce and Labor committee used to have 11 Republicans and four Democrats. The new Senate majority leader, Dick Saslaw, responded to Norment with epic shade.

    SASLAW: We just figured this is what you all preferred. We tried to copy what you all did.

    Oh snap! Let’s hope US Senate Democrats are paying attention. […]

    Good, good. They need to learn that elections do indeed have consequences.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  99. 99.

    WaterGirl

    @CarolPW: No, that’s my niece!  They keep their house at 60 during the day in the winter, and then turn down the thermostat at night.

    Let’s just say it wouldn’t have been my top choice for where to be when I came down with strep.

    I don’t like to be cold, just unencumbered, when I am sleeping.

  100. 100.

    My Side of Town

    The fog of war, is an overused cliche. But what if it wasn’t defective Iranian SAMs? A US stinger shoulder fired Sam could have taken that aircraft down. It has the range and it is a heat seeker in any configuration. There were lots of them in theatre. But why? Who benefits if it was a militant local group, a sleeper cell, or special forces thing? The Russians and Europeans also have versions of manpads. My gut feel it was a false flag, but I don’t have any idea why. I believe the Iran government had no idea and nothing to gain. Who did?

  101. 101.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @My Side of Town: “It doesn’t make any sense and there’s evidence against it but my gut tells me it was a false flag”?

    I’m guessing you’re in Illinois? you gotta ease into them edibles, dude.

  102. 102.

    CarolPW

    @WaterGirl: Oh god I would die at your nieces, particularly if I was getting sick! For me, completely unencumbered in summer is good as is bundled in winter.

  104. 104.

    My Side of Town

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:  I’m guessing it’s the vodka. But I’m just starting on that and been thinking about this all day. Saw the NYT video and it looked like the plane was hit and reportedly was able to turn back. Maybe this is the wrong thread. But no, I live in Florida. I didn’t say what you said, but maybe you are in Illinois.

  105. 105.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: They do indeed. And when they finish overreaching on firearms regulations, Virginians will enjoy the hard line, Trumpite, Republican governor who will veto everything produced by the new Democratic majorities in the Virginia legislature after he is elected this fall. Two years later, after veto after veto turns them into a do nothing legislative majority, they will be replaced by an even harder line Republican majority in each chamber. And then the fun will begin in earnest.

  106. 106.

    Adam L Silverman

    @My Side of Town: It was most likely a misidentification from Iran’s missile defense system. As soon as the Iranians launched their attack on US positions in Iraq official notifications should have been issued to both aviation and maritime vessels indicating there would be no takeoffs and no landings for aviation and no going into or out of port for shipping until further notice. Why that order wasn’t given. Or, if it was given, why it was not followed and this flight was approved for takeoff, are important questions that need answers.

  107. 107.

    Jinchi

    @WaterGirl: Surely THAT’S an impeachable offense, isn’t it? Assassination for political and person gain?????

    I read that quote as implying that Senators threatened to impeach him if he didn’t kill Soleimani. Which honestly, would be worse. Apparently Pompeo lobbied hard for it. I’m sure Lindsay Graham did as well.

  108. 108.

    randy khan

    @WaterGirl:

    I wonder how much it would cost me if I was willing to pay a nickel every time someone here didn’t engage with a troll? :-)

    Not nearly as much as it should.

  109. 109.

    WaterGirl

    @Jinchi: That’s what I meant by political and personal gain, though I guess that wasn’t clear.

    He didn’t do it b/c of imminent threat, or any other valid reason.  He did it so they wouldn’t vote against him in his impeachment trial.

    They definitely need to add that to the list.

  111. 111.

    Adam L Silverman

    @My Side of Town: It most likely wasn’t an act of terrorism. It was most likely an unfortunate accident.

    And if you’ve just put direct fire on enemy targets, you ground everything and close your ports until you’re sure you aren’t going to take return fire. Iran should have closed their airspace and shut their maritime ports until they were sure the US wasn’t going to retaliate to ensure nothing was moving that might be mistakenly identified as enemy incoming and wrongly targeted.

  112. 112.

    Jay

    @My Side of Town:

    the current reported timeline is:

    Shouty McShoutyPants threatens Iran,

    murders an Iranian General, shortly after he arrives in Iraq, “carrying” deconfliction proposals from Iran to the Iraqi PM.

    sometime time before or after this event, Iranian Air defences would be on high alert.

    Iranian missile strikes were outgoing at 1:15 am, local time.

    the Ukrainian airliner crashed at 6:15 am, local time. ( it was delayed for take off for an hour, for mechanical reasons on the flightline).

    the Iranian Government publically announced the missile strikes at 6:21 local time.

    the airport is no where near the ground to ground missile launch points.

    the only Irainian Air Defences that would have been alerted to the outgoing missile strikes, would have been the ones in radar range of the flight paths.

    possibly, after the strikes, all Iranian Air Defences were put on Super Exceptional High Alert, because of the possibility of an “immediate” US Air Strike or Missile Strike in response, with out being told why.

    The USS. Vincennies also shot down a Civillian Airliner, by mistake because primarially, because a period of high alerts combined with a Rambo Skipper, and poor chain of command and flow of information.

    The only WTF???????????? I have ( so far ) is the “confirmed” video, of either a missile strike, or an engine shrapnelling. Somebody, was in the right place, the right time, shooting cell phone video at exactly the right place in a “meh” night sky, to capture that so brief flash.

    weird, conspiracy or just a fluke?

  113. 113.

    WaterGirl

    @randy khan: Yeah, I most definitely did not get the “it’s fun to play with the trolls” gene.  I don’t understand it at all. I would rather drill holes in metal.

  114. 114.

    randy khan

    @Adam L Silverman:

    So I live in Virginia.

    First, I guarantee that no Republican will be elected governor this fall because the election actually is in 2021.

    Which is an important point because that means the Dems will control redistricting after the 2020 census, since they have and will continue to the trifecta through the 2021 elections.  The next legislative elections in 2021 will be run with (at a minimum) fair districts or perhaps (hopefully) Dem-favoring districts, so a hypothetical Republican governor almost certainly would face a Dem-heavy General Assembly.

    Also, the Republican bench stinks, and they keep nominating people for statewide office who horrify most Virginians, which is an important factor in their recent losses.

    And a poll from December says the following about gun control:

    The poll shows that 84% of Virginians support universal checks for firearm purchases and 57% support an assault weapons ban. Also, 76% of people polled support extreme risk protection orders, which would allow a family member to petition a judge for a warrant to seize legally owned guns if someone is determined to be an immediate threat to themselves or others.

    So my guess is that voting for universal checks, which I think is the biggest thing on the agenda, won’t be a huge problem.

  115. 115.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    there was a link posted to a site in comments, I think yesterday, that was a bunch of Aviation Safety Geek’s Blog.

    their blog was created because their “pet peeve” is that the “official” International Notice system for Pilots and Aircrew is bs. , unreadable garbage. It does not make the threats and dangers clear, ( if you are not obsessively following local events along the routes), and it’s up to the Airport, Company, Air Traffic Controllers to decide what to do or not do.

    Iran should have closed her airspace, but there is a cost to that and most countries don’t do that for Airline Safety.

  116. 116.

    Adam L Silverman

    @randy khan: I apologize for getting the election date wrong.

    And I have no problem with universal checks. I support them.

    And I don’t think one should hoard power and not use it.

    But there will be a backlash. There always is.

  117. 117.

    Jay Noble

    @WaterGirl: I need at least a sheet but I nearly had a full blown anxiety attack just picking up one of those new weighted blankets. I dropped the damn thing and was half way across walmart before I started breathing again! :-)

  118. 118.

    Mnemosyne

    @Jay:

    One thing I’ll say is that sometimes weird flukes happen. Cameras actually did catch the crucial heat-protection tiles falling off the space shuttle while it was taking off that led to it burning up on re-entry. There really was a random guy on Twitter who happened to be up late studying the night bin Laden was killed and saw the helicopters. Weird coincidental  shit happens. ?‍♀️

  120. 120.

    My Side of Town

    @Jay: The only WTF???????????? I have ( so far ) is the “confirmed” video, of either a missile strike, or an engine shrapnelling. Somebody, was in the right place, the right time, shooting cell phone video at exactly the right place in a “meh” night sky, to capture that so brief flash.

    That is what I thought. It looked like whoever fired the missile was recording it. I have read all day the Iranian SAM defense is based on radar, but the missile appeared small and the pop was brief, but devastating as you would expect. So I looked up Stinger to see if the range was in bounds and a possibility. It was. Lot’s of those in theatre.  So why isn’t anyone considering this?

  121. 121.

    Jay

    @Mnemosyne:

    yeah, weird shit happens, but the Shuttle had thousands of cameras on the launch. Helicopters, even the “Stealth” ones are loud at off angles, large and slow moving.

    In the “confirmed” vid, you can barely make out the flash of what ever happened, against a light polluted night sky, ( so it wasn’t Bill in Glendale), and it wasn’t a plane watcher. For now, it’s just weird, because right now, we know nothing of the 5 w’s for the vid. Could have be a guy videoing his friend shooting hoops in the street, who just caught a chunk panning away.

  123. 123.

    My Side of Town

    @My Side of Town: So a motivation of the Iranians would be to make it look like US retaliation to their obvious attack meant not to cause any casualties. Except there aren’t any US assets in Iran supposedly capable of that, unless it’s a sleeper cell, or maybe a Saudi sleeper cell that wants to make Iran look like it’s a fumblefuck government. At the expense of Canucks. I don’t know, but whatever the current US government explanation, I would assume they are lying.

  124. 124.

    Jay

    @My Side of Town:

    because right now, it is in “no ones” best interest to “speculate” or deflect.

    a terrorist/covert cell firing any one of the dozens of MANPADs in region, would be “bad news” for Iran. They try to keep their problems with various terrorist/proxy groups operating in Iran, on the low down.

    for “anyone” supporting the proxy, well,………

    The Canadian, Iranian, Ukranian and the American aviation safety experts will all be investigating. Eventually, we will have a much better understanding of what happened, like with MH17, but sometimes, it takes years. Even the Russian GRU couldn’t hide all the evidence.

  125. 125.

    My Side of Town

    @Jay:  I’m betting it wasn’t an accident and I appreciate everyone’s commentary. Thank you all and good night.

  126. 126.

    joel hanes

    @WaterGirl:

    To be more specific

    [sings, to the tune of “John Brown’s Body”]

    She wears her pink pajamas in the summer when it’s hot
    She wears her flannel nightie in the winter when it’s not
    And sometimes in the springtime, yes
    And sometimes in the fall
    She jumps between the sheets …

  127. 127.

    PJ

    @Jay: The Zapruder film was kind of a fluke.  In 1963, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary that someone would want to make a home movie of the President visiting their town, but Zapruder got “lucky” in capturing the moment when JFK was shot.  Film was expensive then (and now) and most people are terrible at actually filming what is important.  But shooting video now on phones is ubiquitous (if you’ve been to a concert in the last ten years, it’s a plague) and it’s not difficult to imagine that somebody was shooting something else that morning and happened to catch the downing of the Ukrainian jetliner.   I mean, there’s tons of stuff on YouTube of someone shooting something banal and then something unexpected making the video interesting (most of it seems to come from Russia).  (I say this not having seen the video and knowing nothing else about it.)

  128. 128.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Jay:

     

    From what I understand, the person who shot the video heard the noise of the first missile detonating, prompting them to turn and see the damaged plane in the sky. They started recording it as the second missile hit, which makes sense as from what I understand the missiles are fired in pairs.

    Gleaned from PPRuNe comments…

  129. 129.

    randy khan

    @Adam L Silverman:

    There definitely will be people who are very unhappy with universal background checks, but none of them are voting for the Dems anyway.  And fixing the gerrymandering will be a big deal, as the Dems have been winning the statewide vote quite regularly, and often by pretty good margins, but not getting rewarded proportionately in the General Assembly.

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