Are we going to give in to the fear, or are we going to fight back? I'm ready to fight back.
Fighting back is an act of patriotism. pic.twitter.com/HSBFyVgz3J
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) January 28, 2020
This Washington Post article is by Annie Linskey, who’s professionally hate-stalking Elizabeth Warren like Amy Chozik did Hillary Clinton in 2016, but this still sounds like excellent politicking to me:
… Before her town hall meetings, Warren (D-Mass.) virtually always holds a private discussion with five to 40 carefully selected voters, from those who are wavering to potential endorsers. At a moment in the presidential campaign when raucous rallies are the order of the day, the sessions provide unusually intimate access for Iowans who have emerged as the high-value targets of this final, desperate sprint to the caucuses: highly active but still undecided Democrats.
These “clutches,” as the campaign calls them, are just one part of Warren’s obsessively detailed organization in Iowa, one that reflects the candidate’s methodical personality and sets her apart from every other contender. As her polls take an ominous dip just days before the Feb. 3 caucuses, Warren’s big bet is that her unprecedented organizing machine will rescue her showing in Iowa, essentially saving her candidacy.
“It’s been a year of town halls and questions and a lot of selfies — it’s been a lot of fun,” Warren told Democratic officials Saturday at a gala in Scott County. But, she added, “there’s also been a part that’s not quite so visible: It’s been a year of organizing. It’s been a year of people on the ground.” And that, she said, “is how we’re going to win in 2020.”
And it has been almost microscopic. The campaign made a detailed study of almost all of the state’s more than 1,600 precincts to determine how to maximize support. It divided Iowa into nine zones and made an early investment deploying numerous operatives in each one, including remote towns and areas unlikely to support Warren.
To decide whom to invite to her intimate clutches, which last 25 to 30 minutes, the campaign mounted an extensive data-gathering effort to uncover not only who supports her but also who might switch under the right circumstances…
For Warren, the bet on Iowa and organization was made long ago. One of her key early decisions was to bulk up fast in the state, hiring 50 staff members by the spring of 2019, far outpacing all other campaigns. Early in the campaign, Warren’s team handed out stickers that read: “It all begins in Iowa.”
It has gotten only more elaborate. In recent weeks, some Warren organizers have touted their successes online, with operatives in Sioux City, Washington County, Jefferson County, Cedar Falls and Council Bluffs announcing that they have precinct captains for every precinct in their jurisdiction. The campaign declined to say how many precinct captains they have identified statewide…
Warren’s team has about 150 organizers in Iowa, according to the campaign. Although that is no longer the biggest footprint, Warren’s advantage comes from being here early.
In urban areas, her team assigned one organizer to a single county, while in rural regions, each organizer oversaw two or three counties at most. Meanwhile, staff members for other candidates were sometimes assigned as many as a dozen counties, a tough job in rural parts of the state where Democrats are often spread out and meeting them requires long drives.
“I think the Warren campaign smartly decided very early on that turf like that is not how you build relationships,” said one Iowa Democrat. “You can’t get to know people in a real way if you’re driving three or four hours or more every day.”…
“When I knock [on] doors, they all say, ‘Oh, I love Elizabeth. She has the best plans, and I think she’d be the best president. But I don’t know if she can win,” said Peter Leo, chairman of the Carroll County Democrats, who endorsed Warren last fall. “My hurdle as a volunteer for her has been to convince people to go with that gut feeling that Elizabeth Warren is the president that we need.”
And not just in Iowa, either…
When I was coordinating the #shethepeople2020 forum, Warren’s staff were all Black women. Activists who shaped the questions still tell me all the time how EW or the campaign called to follow-up on policy thoughts.
& I received just one thank you note: #AllOfUs4Warren pic.twitter.com/EDOSb1MxDk
— Jessica Byrd (@JessicaLBYRD) January 27, 2020
Baud
I hope she can do it!
JMG
Annie Linsky, the premiere mean girl. Hell, Haberman has way, way way more reporting chops than she does. Haberman just has rabbit ears and can’t take criticism instead of shrugging it off.
Cheryl Rofer
I sent her some money today!
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
I just hope we can stop Bernie. That’s one reason I’m all-in for Joe now. The other is his focus on civil rights and human rights, including Transgender rights. Basic human decency in this country is on the ballot.
Baud
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Even if he’s not the nominee, it’s hard to see how we avoid a major party schism, if not before the election than afterwards.
burnspbesq
The premise of the article is ridiculous. Iowa caucus-goers are so unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate as a whole that no rational analysis would give any weight to the results.
I’d like to think we’re smart enough to figure that out, but the data aren’t encouraging.
Eric U.
so far the primaries are just driving me crazy. I have no idea how we get out of Iowa being first, but we have to. Just can’t quit going there
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Baud: True. But it actually might not be as bad as 2016. And how much of a factor was that schism in Nov 2016?
In the end, seems like Hillary was hurt more by Comey and late-breaking shenanigans than by the conflicts at the convention and wikileaks BS. In addition, Hillary had the baggage of 25 years of demonization from the right (and “left”) to overcome.
We’ll get over this primary, though some obnoxious BB’s will continue to be loudly obnoxious. Same old thang.
Mike J
@burnspbesq: An unexpected outcome can have an effect on the next races.
Baud
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Let’s say Biden is the nominee and wins in November. Bernie’s showing in the primary is likely going to be strong enough that his supporters are unlikely to tolerate the compromises that they’ll have to make in Congress and with the Biden administration. The rhetoric will make the primary look like a love fest.
That’s the schism I’m concerned about.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Baud: In 2016, Bernie got over 40%. How much do you think he’ll get this time? I’m guessing 25% tops.
Baud
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
I don’t think they are a patient bunch, and a second loss will send them over the edge.
In the end, though, there’s nothing to be done except hope for the best.
Mo MacArbie
I worry about a schism too. Then another day starts with a promising story, and I flip back to irrational exuberance. Then five hours later, I’m back to “We’re all gonna die.”
Fuck if I know. How can we promote unity in the face of shitstirrers coming from all sides when we’re all so primed for outrage? How can we deescalate clickbait? I guess I did need social skills after all.
Brachiator
@Baud:
If Biden or anyone else who is a Democrat and not Bernie wins in November, I will not give two shits about any dust that Sanders or Bernie bros kick up.
Sanders has to create a credible movement and get people elected. His “holy grass roots rebels” approach is a waste of time.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: The Bernistas can make a lot of noise and, as proven, cause trouble in the Electoral College, but I don’t know how much influence they’ll have one the shouting’s over. Jonathon Chait — yeah, I know– wrote about Bernie and his role in the Democratic Party today– and yes I believe he mentions that Himself refuses to join the party:
The only answer, quoth the broken record, is to win the Senate.
LET’S GET EXCITED ABOUT GARY PETERS!
MomSense
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
I’m with you. I do think the VP pick is going to be a bigger factor than in years past so I’m hoping for a dynamic nominee.
@Baud:
We need good oppo to drop on Wilmer ASAP. Given the support he has with youngs and their embrace of #metoo I can’t understand why we aren’t seeing his rape essays being addressed. I told one of the young interns in my office about how his rape essays are a big concern to me and he had never heard of them. He said he found it hard to believe something like that wouldn’t have been publicized by now. I told him to google it and he was horrified. Said it makes him question everything. I like youngs but I’m busy. I can’t have heart to hearts with all of them.
Mike J
@Brachiator: The holy grass roots rebels got their asses kicked in the middle of the blue wave in 2018.
Betty
We need to resist the idea that a woman can’t win. Warren is the best candidate remaining and should be enthusiastically supported.
LC
@Baud: I think that’s a big part of it. He wasn’t supposed to win the first time, he just overperformed. He didn’t have time to bring people on board.
Now it is his turn and losing only means that there is no way the corrupt Dems can be saved from themselves.
That is what I fear will go through their heads.
satby
@MomSense: one of the oppos on Bernie dropped the other day, his appearance on Lou Dobbs (in 2015!) talking about restrictions on immigration because immigrants take jobs away from Americans and drive down wages. schrodinger ‘s cat had retweeted it, then I shared it on FB.
cmorenc
@burnspbesq:
A big reason the media continues to give such undeserved attention to Iowa is that it provides them such a rich opportunity to so easily create clickbait (and video feed bait) so early in the election cycle. Also, the opportunity particularly lends it self to an emphasis on a horse-race approach to coverage, with is much easier and more convenient for the media than a more substantive approach. That’s why the media will continue to love and blanket-cover Iowa, as unrepresentative as its electorate is of so much of the rest of the country. Ditto New Hampshire.
Eric U.
In 2016, I was at the bike shop, and one of the mechanics was complaining about something and said that bernie would solve it. I asked him if he voted, and he wasn’t registered. I suspect that’s true of a lot of the left. And that’s why we can’t have nice things.
Baud
@Betty:
Just not that woman.
glory b
@Eric U.: I mentioned this before, but I understand that Iowa has a statute that automatically resets their primary date anytime another state moves their date ahead.
These matters are state issues , so they are always first.
Being first brings lots of money to the state.
Omnes Omnibus
@Betty: One could support a candidate other than Warren for reasons other than thinking that a woman can’t win. One could think another person was the better candidate.
MomSense
@satby:
All these things have come out before, but they haven’t had the kind of signal boosting that makes them stick. The media seem to be protecting him.
Princess
I think Warren would be the best president, so I am going to vote for her.
I don’t think anyone has a clue who can beat Trump and I don’t give those early polls any credence. It may be that all of them could beat Trump. Maybe none of them could. The worst thing about 24 hour news and social media is that everyone is their own pundit. Vote your bliss and hope for the best.
Martin
Heading off what might be a bit of a media panic – State Dept has arranged for a flight of Wuhan expats to return to the US. They’ll be arriving at Ontario (California) airport tomorrow.
Ontario is a good choice. It’s a large airport but is mostly air freight with some passenger. So lots of space and not a lot of people (relatively speaking). Passengers may be quarantined, they’re still evaluating that decision. The state is on it.
On a related note, it looks like the number of diagnosed isn’t going to spike up as much as yesterday. That could indicate that the containment efforts are working, but I’ve also read a report there’s a shortage of diagnosis kits in some parts of China around the center of the outbreak, so it could just be they have more patients but no way of confirming what they are sick of
Further addition – there are very few new cases outside of China, so it looks pretty likely that this isn’t spreading except in areas where health infrastructure is being really taxed.
Princess
@glory b: The DNC could always refuse to recognize their primary, as they did with MI and FL when they tried to move up in 08. I doubt they would do that as long as Iowa remains a purple state, but they could.
The biggest problem with Iowa starting first is that caucuses are incredibly anti-democratic.
Marcopolo
I’m gonna sound like a broken record but: 1) vote for the candidate you love the most in the primary—whomever that might be; 2) commit to supporting the nominee in the general—whomever that might be; 3) if the person who wins the nomination leaves you feeling meh, then find another D candidate near where you live (US Sen or House, state sen or house, alderman, councilperson, mayor, DA, a good ballot initiative—like Medicaid Expansion here in MO, etc…) and work your tail off for them. It really is that simple.
I really believe that it is important to try to cast at least one vote that is just joyful (fuck being strategic) and our bottom line mission is to get as many of our voters to the polls on Election Day (for whichever D candidate moves them) as possible.
Adam L Silverman
@burnspbesq: Especially given the way the caucus results are going to be reported. We’re going to get three different results:
We could potentially have 3 different candidates all claim they won the Iowa caucuses, though I think it is more likely that we have two candidates who can make that claim. This thing is going to be a complete clusterfuck.
zhena gogolia
@Martin:
I appreciate your posts on this topic.
satby
@MomSense: Al Giordano had an interesting article about the Wilmer dilemma that’s worth a read (apology for the naked link, in my cell):
https://organizeandwin.com/sanders-early-state-polling-edge-would-earn-him-fewer-delegates-than-losing-did-in-2016/?fbclid=IwAR0yEXnDQulAdWehiiWswxRdwWQNW92MU5qKMPoY1M6rXc-wYq09skcNegQ
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Princess:
Good advice
@Marcopolo:
You’ve got the Peters Fever. We all do.
Adam L Silverman
@Eric U.: Start spreading the rumor on social media, tagging the President’s twitter account repeatedly, that the novel coronavirus is widespread in Iowa. Then he’ll quarantine the place, at the least, and we can all just get on with life. I don’t have a Twitter account, so you all are going to have to execute the plan.//
dm
@Baud: it’s the run-up to the election that worries me. Refusal to accept compromise after the election is a good thing — that’s how Overton windows get moved.
Like that old quote attributed to FDR — “Alright, you’ve convinced me, now go out and make me do it”.
Raven Onthill
It worked for AOC in NYC, Queens and the Bronx. Might just work for Warren in Iowa.
Or might not. I have the strong feeling that Warren is the only candidate who is actually willing to do what it takes to win. Will it be enough? Who can say?
Baud
@dm:
That’s how things don’t get done.
MomSense
@satby:
He’s been my friend for more than 30 years. He knows what he’s talking about.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
Yes, there are some “Bernie or Bust” people out there, but I think we tend to overestimate their number and importance because they are so loud on social media. My boss was very loud about how much he loved Bernie and how angry he would be about him being cheated of the nomination in 2016, but he eventually came around and voted for Hillary. This year, he’s still a Bernie fan, but he’s come right out and said “Bernie or someone else who’s really progressive, like Elizabeth Warren”.
Remember, the 2016 numbers include all the people who would refuse to vote for anyone but Bernie, so we can probably do at least as well even without him. Some of those people are still crazy about him, but I expect a few of them to have learned their lesson and to hold their noses to vote for some other Democratic candidate rather than suffer through another 4 years of Trump.
Adam L Silverman
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: It was a significant factor. 26% of Sanders supporters 1) voted for Trump or 2) voted 3rd party for either Stein or Johnson or wrote Sanders’ name in or 3) stayed home.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Chait’s article on this is spot on.
dm
@Baud: Really? Tell that to the Republican judge-appointers and tax-cutters.
@Adam L Silverman: It would help if those numbers were broken down by state. Voting for Jill Stein in Wisconsin affected the outcome. Voting for her in California or Massachusetts did not.
The Sanders-Trump voters were clearly not really Sanders voters, but anti-Clinton voters.
I think the Iowa results will be interesting to see. The Pod-bros at Crooked Media have had a series on the Iowa Caucuses, and it sounds like the Sanders campaign is flying under the radar — rather like the Obama campaign did in 2008 — focusing on bringing in new voters.
I’m hoping that the Register endorsement will bring out more people for Warren, and cause people in under-15% districts to switch to Warren (and, as the article in the post describes, Warren has had an excellent organization going in Iowa for a year).
glory b
@Princess: Ih yes, caucuses are terrible. Lots of people can’t devote an entire evening to voting.
It feels like some of those voter suppressed states where people have to wait for hours to vote.
By the way, snyone ever notice that most of the people in those lines are African American? What a coincidence!
Baud
@dm:
If we control the Senate, we’ll get judges too. Everything else requires compromise between progressive and moderate Dems.
chris
@Marcopolo:Vote as if…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Hayes is reading from the WSJ article on McConnell’s freeze. Gardner, McSally and Tillis are arguing against witnesses, They wanna shut this down and move on. Not quite what I expected, but it makes sense, from their perspective, they’re desperate.
Adam L Silverman
@Raven Onthill: The turnout in AOC’s district was 10% and her opponent couldn’t be bothered to campaign. She did the work, he didn’t. But had he done even a modicum of work, given it was such a low turn out election we wouldn’t have any idea who she is today and her opponent would be giving daily press conferences as one of Speaker Pelosi’s key lieutenants. And the choice in that district was between a fairly senior center left Democrat who couldn’t be bothered to campaign and a far left of center Democrat in name only who did. AOC, her platform, and her message don’t scale. At best they can only be repeated in districts that are very much like her own, which are districts that will never elect a Republican.
And it certainly can’t be scaled into a presidential election which is functionally a national election, but is in reality a state by state campaign where only between 6 and 20 states really matter. And her message and platform do NOT fit those states at all. This isn’t whether she is right or not. This isn’t whether she is a good rep or not. This is simply the reality of the US, how the US conducts presidential elections, and the differences in US political, social, economic, and religious culture in different parts of the US.
Martin
@Princess: I think Dems can (and should) simply forbid all caucuses. I also think California should pass a law saying that CA must vote before all other states, if only to bring the case to the federal courts to get all such laws struck down. Iowa as first state *by state law* disenfranchises every other state. Someone needs to invalidate that law, and NHs as well.
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
My gut feeling is that those numbers are misleading. I would bet a good fraction of the Sanders/Trump voters were Republican ratfuckers from states with open primaries who voted for him just to cause problems for the Democrats.
Baud
@Roger Moore: It’ll be worse this year since there’s no primary on the other side.
Marcopolo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:Actually, in response to some of the flip the senate funding posts here I’ve noted that Peters is actually a D incumbent who could also use contributions to hold his seat since he’s at a charisma deficit against his putative R challenger who outraised him last quarter.
Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Right. Which is why Graham recognizes that one witness means many witnesses. They’re not going to call Bolton and no rebutting witnesses. So they’ll need to add other witnesses. Further, once you’re stuck not being able to just roll past this, then your motivation changes from ‘get this over fast’ to ‘let’s get the best face on this’.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Roger Moore: a lot– as in electorally significant last time– of people saw Sanders and trump as anti-NAFTA and/or anti-war candidates. People cherry-pick issues in ways that don’t make much sense to people like us
Adam L Silverman
@Roger Moore: Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
Sure Lurkalot
I’m voting for Warren on Super Tuesday. I wish I had her enthusiasm, focus and energy and I’m younger. No fair! I admit to little passion for the two front runners but I’ll find it, by goddess. Somewhere.
Kay
My youngest just walked in carrying a Bernie yard sign under his arm. Is he even on an e-sports team? I thought that’s where he was.
dm
@Raven Onthill: As Adam points out, AOC isn’t that good an example.
On the other hand, it (being the campaign described in the article) worked for Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin in 2018. So it might work for Warren in Iowa.
lgerard
GOP Group Drives Billboard Around DC Calling for President Pence Amid Impeachment Trial: He’s ‘Not Bad… Could Be Worse’
MomSense
Oh no! Big earthquake in Jamaica.
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: Two words for you to consider: military school. I have a former student who runs one in New England. I’m happy to make a call.
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: 2:10 this afternoon. 7.7 on the Richter Scale.
Mike J
Every time I see someone on twitter talk about how they’re supporting ewarren I wonder why Earl Warren is so popular now.
mrmoshpotato
@Kay:
Pulling down rebounds left and right (B A Start)?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Marcopolo: me too, John James seems like a formidable candidate– African American West Point grad, not crazy according to anything I’ve seen. I think his biggest liability is trump might want to campaign with him too much. and we should all be paying more attention to Senate races across the country, IMHO. I don’t know how vulnerable Peters is considered to be
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
oh, no. I adore him. He’s my favorit..oops!
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Wilmer will probably win Iowa.
It’s a lily white state, where 43% of 2016 voters self identified as Socialists. It’s also a caucus, which is undemocratic.
But he’ll lose the overwhelming number of diversified states. And that will be that.
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: French Foreign Legion?
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
Damn. That’s a big earthquake.
Kay
@mrmoshpotato:
They love it. It’s all the rage. My oldest is jealous. Gaming was disreputable when he was in high school. Now they have team tshirts. The adults will probably ruin it like we ruin everything.
Baud
@Kay: Does he have a yard? Isn’t the yard yours?
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: There were reports that it was felt as far north as Miami.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: He has an e-yard.
mrmoshpotato
@Mike J: Strange. I thought his ghost was going to wait until he’s 50 to run for President.
Marcopolo
@Adam L Silverman: Another contributing factor in her win was that demographically NY-14 had shifted so that a 29 year old Latinx woman was much more representative of the average person living in the district than a middle-aged white dude. It’s a similar dynamic to what propelled Ayanna Presley (sp?) winning in MA.
Kathleen
@MomSense: I subscribe to his newsletter. I think he has original, value added insights and he knows his stuff. He was pretty spot on with his 2018 predictions. I liked his point about not being fear food for MAGAts and the Slanders cult (my wording, not his).
mrmoshpotato
@Kay:
Wha? When was your oldest in high school?
Nelle
@glory b: Hotel rates in Des Moines have just quadrupled. I know because on Wednesday, we’re getting some students from Mass. (Harvard) coming to crash in our basement while they canvass. I don’t expect to see much of them, but still, glad I can offer them some warm space.
Adam L Silverman
@Marcopolo: True. But Pressley is the closest to the center left of the squad and had previous electoral experience. Had Crowley even bothered to campaign and used some of his considerable campaign funds that he’d accumulated and not used to turn out the vote, he most likely would’ve held on to his seat.
I’m not knocking AOC here. She did the work. She outworked him. Just on that alone she deserved to win. But what she accomplished was the result of a very unusual set of circumstances.
Adam L Silverman
@Nelle: I’ve seen this movie. It either doesn’t end well for you or for the students.//
Kay
@Baud:
Well, technically yes but I think of it as his too. I’m just going to leave it in the dining room where he dropped it and if it’s like everything else he drops in there it will stay there.
Marcopolo
@Kay: A university in town has a nationally recognized esports program & a school sponsored team. Apparently that is what happens when something becomes a multi-billion dollar industry where scores of folks can make a living doing it full time. And yes, I also have a friend who works at an online gaming company and he too makes a very good living doing work in that end as well.
mrmoshpotato
@Adam L Silverman: The debates going on in the basement will shake the house to its foundation.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Nelle: how did they end up in your basement? Did you volunteer you place on a candidate site or is this an AirBNB thingy?
Kay
@mrmoshpotato:
He’s 30. His horrible government teacher used to tease him for “killing aliens”. Now he makes more than all of us. High school football turns out not to be that lucrative, as a career.
glory b
@Roger Moore: Exactly. As someone who lives in southwestern PA, I saw news reports interviewing West Virginians who happily said they had no intentions of voting for Dems in the general, but voted for Bernie in the primary to stick it to Clinton.
Remember, WV came close to voting for a guy doing felony time in Texas, rather than Obama (when he was running for re election).
opiejeanne
@Baud: I like Warren and I like Biden. My favorite candidate withdrew so I’m still in the sampling stage. I really hope Bernie doesn’t get any traction.
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: His government teacher probably was a space alien. :)
Adam L Silverman
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I have two words for you: Donner Party.
Kay
@Marcopolo:
It’s interesting. Trine, which is a solid engineering school around here, came to their meet to urge them to apply. I give them credit for reaching out. He’s not going there though- not far enough away from me.
I like their coach. He’s the science teacher.
Chyron HR
@Roger Moore:
Woah there, friend. If that were true, then Bernie’s argument that the DNC should have given him the nomination in 2016 by fiat because his supporters are “more progressive” would be complete bullshit. And obviously Bernie would never say something that’s bullshit.
Nelle
@Roger Moore: I’ve been even more concerned about this. I know I’m new to Iowa but, hearing that Trump is trying to get a lot of Republicans to caucuses in Iowa on Monday had me wondering, which caucuses? Because they can register as Dems on Monday. And it is so like Trump and the R’s to try to shift the momentum in the Democratic race.
Marcopolo
@Nelle: I was in Iowa 16 years ago doing final weekend canvassing for Howard Dean. We drove in from St Louis & crashed in someone’s basement. It was an unforgettable experience although an hour or two in it was pretty apparent that Dean’s support had cratered. I do still have my orange Iowa Perfect Storm stocking hat & do still wear it.
I may just be jaded from being involved in elections for a long time but I actually no longer think a bunch of out of state folks flooding in at the very end makes much difference in final caucus numbers.
oldgold
@dm: “I’m hoping that the Register endorsement will bring out more people for Warren, and cause people in under-15% districts to switch to Warren (and, as the article in the post describes, Warren has had an excellent organization going in Iowa for a year).”
The Register was once an excellent newspaper. Like most newspapers, it has suffered greatly over the past decade or so. Worse, this autumn it ran a story that infuriated Iowans and has cost it whatever clout it may have retained. My guess is the Register’s endorsement is a net negative for Warren.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/juliareinstein/des-moines-register-iowa-reporter-fired-aaron-calvin-carson
Kraux Pas
@opiejeanne: I’ll be happy with anyone except Biden or Bernie. If it comes down to the two of them in the primary, which seems increasingly likely, I don’t know what I’ll do for the primary; anything up to and including writing “fuck these old white dudes.”
I promise to come up with a better coping strategy before the general.
Sab
I am giving to local candidates also, since they have term limit issues, and we need a bench going forward.
I gave to our state rep, who is currently the minority leader in the state house. She is African American. She comes from a talented political family. Her father should still be in office except for term limits. She is very bright and energetic. Also quite pretty. Her big claim to news fame is the capitol police keep blocking her from the non-public areas because they don’t believe she is a state rep. Huh?
Since I ent her a donation I got on her mailing list. She sent me a Martin Luther King Day card. That was cool. I have it on my wall.
Brachiator
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
I forget. Did Obama win Iowa in 2008?
Oh yeah, from the Guardian:
I do not like Sanders. Not at all. But let’s see what happens and quit knocking the state.
ETA: Mike Huckabee won for the GOP in Iowa. The state is half nuts.
mad citizen
@lgerard: 1) Funny truck picture, thanks. “Pence…It Could Be Worse”
2) I didn’t know Newsweek was still around, even as a website.
3) The website seemed to explode all over my screen with pop ups, etc., and I had to shut a bunch of stuff down.
glory b
@MomSense: I vastly prefer him to the polling guy on msnbc, Steve Kornacki. Someone described him as a squirrel on meth.
glory b
@Kraux Pas: Vote like black women.
Jeffro
I’m good with fighting back, all right. Getting the tar warmed up and the bag of feathers handy.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@glory b: heh, as I recall he used to be just kind of nerdy and earnest and just dove into numbers, it’s when they made him into “Big Board Guy” that he became kind of (for me) hard to watch
Nelle
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I volunteered. I still have The Cough and can’t go out and work for the candidate. I can offer space in the just finished off basement.
Kraux Pas
@glory b: I lack that level of fabulous.
Nelle
@oldgold: I was rather shocked today that the Register had a half page endorsement for Bernie by one of their top editors, Reka Basu. I really like her writing but this seriously undercut their endorsement of Warren. I wonder what the newsroom and editorial board has sounded like this last week….
zhena gogolia
Pam Bondi and Joni Ernst have convinced me. I’m all in for Biden now.
glory b
@Kraux Pas: Lol, thanks for the compliment.
@Kraux Pas:
danielx
OT but worth noting: new digs (nyuk nyuk) at https://digbysblog.net/.
I still feel impelled to write “what Digby said” on occasion.
Gelfling 545
I completely support Warren but at peace with the idea that it will probably be Biden. A lot of people don’t even want to think about institutional change right now. They just want the madness to stop & I understand that. It may be a while before people are ready to do anything but recover. That’s the reason I think we may dodge the Bernie bullet. Too many people just aren’t prepared to endure any more upheaval & arguing.
Mary G
The mock caucus at Drake University in Iowa came out way different from what I expected. This thread has all the details:
The summary, if you don’t do Twitter, is that Bernie didn’t get to 15 %, and instead of going to another candidate as the rules required, his supporters got mad and went home. The final result was Warren got 5 delegates and Buttigieg got 4. No one else had enough supporters. And these were college students.
Gvg
@Adam L Silverman: I think some of them were republicans who were trying to ratfuck the democratic nomination. Some of them really seem to enjoy thinking these tactics can work. It makes them more powerful in their own minds. Some of the right wing pundits encourage such behavior. So IMO a significant number of those Bernie supporters were not going to vote for him in the general.
another portion were not going to vote for a woman. We are going to lose those guys sooner or later anyway. Each may only be a percent or three but without those fractions, the results would be more in line with a normal primary general.
ther may also be a portion that normally would go third party contrarian, but saw Bernie as more like them then the usual third party. That is argumentative outsider.
Another Scott
@Mary G: Thanks.
There are always surprises in presidential campaigns. I don’t know why so many are determined to throw their favorite candidate overboard before anyone has even voted yet…
Cheers,
Scott.
Chris T.
@Marcopolo: Exactly.
I’ve actually given small contributions to Warren (first time I’ve gone that far in any national election, I have done small contributions before in local elections). (My favorite was Kamala originally.)
Whoever wins the primary has my vote against the
mobster monstermobster-monster currently in the WH…zhena gogolia
Gawd, I love these Lincoln Project ads with the lady with the evillest voice. This one’s about McSally.
Another Scott
@danielx:
Zooks!
:-)
Thanks for the pointer.
Cheers,
Scott.
MisterForkbeard
@Princess: I’m seeing some mild criticism from Howard Dean about how Iowa doesnt demographically match the Democratic party… and the Bernie guys are going fucking NUTS in the comments about how this is the DNC stealing the nomination again. Wow.
Marcopolo
From the annals of These Times We Live In: apparently Lev Parnas would like to attend the SOTU (his lawyer is going) but there is one small hitch—it is unclear someone who is wearing an ankle monitor would be allowed to enter the chambers.
Baud
@Nelle:
@Mary G:
And people are wondering why I’m forecasting a schism.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: Are all your calendar issues resolved?
The Dangerman
@mrmoshpotato:
Timing is everything. When I started undergrad, computers were punch cards and I said no way (recall, I confessed a week ago or so I can’t type for shit). Um … OOPS.
Gaming specific, I didn’t call that one, either. Circa 1990, I was the Crystal Quest guy in my department. I was really good (from basketball, maybe golf, maybe baseball, my hand eye coordination was seriously good at one time; not so much any longer, though I can still shoot the Rock) but I didn’t see where gaming was going, either. Um … OOPS, again.
For better or worse, I finished my graduate work just as the Web was taking off (my last class, they wrote the first URL I ever saw on the board and I wondered what this http shit was all about). At least I kinda got that one right (and also very wrong, but that’s a whole other story).
ETA: Point being, I’m jealous, too.
mrmoshpotato
@MisterForkbeard: That’s adorable. I wonder how drunk or high the Bernie Bros are.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: That one seemed snippier than the other ones they put out last week.
mrmoshpotato
@Marcopolo: “Can this timeline get any stup….?”
“Yes! Stop wondering that!”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
update on the Outrage du Jour
Kraux Pas
Well, I’m seeing my friend tonight who’s constantly banging on the Hunter Biden drum. Next time I hear that BS I’m gonna tell him it’s making me seriously consider voting for Joe.
Hopefully it makes him think about his life choices.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud:
Because we let babies vote in this country for $500, Alex.
MisterForkbeard
@mrmoshpotato: drunk or high?
Porque no los dos?
mrmoshpotato
@MisterForkbeard: True.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
I got an e-mail from them saying it had been shipped. The e-mail came in the middle of the discussion this afternoon. (I put this in a comment.)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@zhena gogolia: oh man, that’s brutal
Are they running those on the television? Happy talk about Goldwater… I don’t think they’re aiming for your typical Millennial audience.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
Not that this is really necessary any more, but I sent Adam the order number and he said he’d pass it on to you.
Brachiator
@Baud:
It would be an odd schism since a chunk of Sanders supporters are not Democrats in the first place.
And this time there would be no hiding place. They know what Trump is. If they decide that they would rather let Trump win than support a Democrat who is not their Chosen One, it would not be a schism. It would be an act of insanity.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MisterForkbeard: I’m in
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Oh, so it’s just like Biden “saying” we should cut SS and Medicare — when in fact he was quoting Paul Ryan.
Amir Khalid
@mad citizen:
I’ve been there. You’re really not missing out on anything.
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I think they’re only on the internet for now, but some have been run on cable news programs, at least in fragments.
Mike S
I can’t wait to see John’s take on this TPM article.
trollhattan
@Baud:
No schism, forecast is for sunny and mild through the week. Next week, who can tell, it’s winter.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: I had seen that, but i wanted to confirm that we weren’t out of sync, so I didn’t leave you hanging.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
Thanks. I’ll assume they’re not lying to me!
Marcopolo
@Baud: When the “loyalty” of BS voters is discussed I think it is important to keep in mind that his campaign attracts the highest number of new to elections voters. Folks who are very excited about their involvement, who might not have the best understanding of how elections work and probably have unrealistic ideas about how political processes work in general (ie they don’t understand how messy everything is, how various processes are set up by the parties to advantage their own interests, etc…). And the Sanders campaign has seemingly (going back to 2016) done nothing to try to educate them. In fact, I’d go so far as to say they weaponize this ignorance to their advantage. It gets them very dedicated supporters—who are totally unready to deal with messy reality. I guess I believe it is the responsibility of candidates & campaigns to do this kind of expectations education/management. Maybe that is unrealistic, maybe no candidates or campaigns do this (and Sanders seems the worst for the kind of supporter they attract), but that’s how I see it. I’m pretty sure this does explain a hell of a lot of the acting out by Sanders folks at the DNC in 2016.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: They guarantee that you will learn French. It is a very immersive program.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Charlie Pierce voted for Bernie in the ’16 primary, and seems to be cooling on the old coot. Now along comes the Rent-To-Own store heiress to tug on his beard
MisterForkbeard
@Marcopolo: It explains a lot of the behavior I see now, as well :/
Sab
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Oh good God. Nina Turner with a public future is horrifying.
Kay
We have to yell a lot about this. You know they’ll do it.
Jeffro
@Mike S: “…it extends to Maryland, it extends to California…”
Yes, if you’re tired of high-quality government services and inclusive, democratic leadership, by all means please join West Virginia, terrified old white people.
The panicked RWNJ folks here in Virginia are really something to see/hear. Tyranny comin’, just around the bend! Um no just sensible gun laws and more funding for education, thanks.
Martin
@Marcopolo: The annual Dota championship known as The International pulls down viewership roughly midway between the NCAA Final 4 and the Superbowl. Prize pool was around $35M.
It’s a MUCH bigger thing than most people realize.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Sab: among other reasons to worry about a Bernie nomination: Nina Turner, Michael Moore and David Sirota being public faces of the Democratic ticket. What could go wrong!
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: It is indeed.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: I had checked before i saw your note. They are not lying.
Jeffro
@Kay: I’m ready if they want to ‘right our fiscal ship’ or ‘balance America’s budget at the kitchen table’ or whatever folksy turn of phrase they want to use.
1) Repeal the trumpov tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations
2) Repeal the W tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations
3) Get rid of the cap on Social Security taxes
4) Treat dividend and interest income as regular income
5) Restore the inheritance tax and rename it the “thank you for so much opportunity and wealth” tax.
6) Restore and expand Obamacare
and oh hell
7) Tax ‘red’ states an extra couple %, just because moochers
dm
@Mike S: Sounds good to me, if Virginia is willing to go along with it. It would take a turning-purple state and turn it into a blue state, while turning a red state into a slightly larger red state. A win for the blue team in the Senate, and possibly even in the Electoral College.
Since I heard about this I’ve been wondering how we could sweeten the deal so we could get DC statehood, too (and Puerto Rico, if they want it).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
The Rachel Maddow asks Adam Schiff if the managers are prepared to ask Roberts to subpoena witnesses. He does not say no.
For the record, I think partisanship will always trump Roberts legendary concern for public faith in The Court. I think he’s just a quieter version of Alito or Kavanugh. So I’d be happy to see him forced to show his arse.
Mike S
@Jeffro: Yeah that cracked me up as a Californian. Now if they take Nunez off of our hands I am all for it.
rikyrah
Jeffro
@dm: VA isn’t turning-purple, it’s blue. The GOP hasn’t won statewide over in a decade, and the only reason it took the state legislature so long to flip was because of severe gerrymandering (and a coin toss!) =)
It’s blue. Not quite California or Delaware or New York blue, but it’s not turning purple or even turning blue.
Adam L Silverman
@rikyrah: I like how Kornacki thinks he needs to tell us that Joe Biden is white.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Bloombergmemtum crosses racial lines.
I assume he’s cutting into Biden’s numbers.
ETA: I personally prefer BlackBiden to WhiteBiden.
dm
@Jeffro: Oh, okay. I keep hearing it described as a purple state vs. a reliably-blue state.
Jeffro
@Mike S: They really do just want a white homeland, though. It’s amazing.
”Our party lost an election! Oh no, now we must…”
a) re-evaluate whether or not our party represents a majority of voters and their wishes
b) find a way to better communicate our values and reach out to our fellow citizens
c) petition almost-completely-white-state-X to please adopt us before the libs give us better schools and also a slowly declining rate of deaths by firearms
Aleta
In the old days like before three years ago, wasn’t a “peace plan” something two primary opposing sides worked out together and then announced while shaking hands in the same photo? A shut-up-and-be-grateful notice shouldn’t have taken this much time, unless you’re the least competent formerly Hatch Act-violating senior advisor to a US president in the history of the world.
He doesn’t even measure up to dried-out pond scum.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Aleta: Is Uncle BiBi sleeping in Jared’s room on this trip?
Barbara
@dm: Some of our state universities are close to West Virginia. I mean, it’s stupid, but this kind of stuff is why the “Best Virginia” is the butt of so many jokes.
Adam L Silverman
@Aleta: As someone who worked at a senior level on the DOD’s part of the 2014 Israeli-Palestinian peace process, I can honestly say that you are correct.
Barbara
@Aleta: Pond scum is too nice.
Jeffro
@dm: I hear that a lot too. It took the legislature so long to flip, and it’s (technically) the South, and there’s been a fair amount of racial controversies/tragedies/backlash that make it seem like it’s a close contest, politically.
There are maps of election results, though, that show how Virginia’s cities and suburbs – where all the people actually are – have really trended strongly blue these past several elections.
And frankly, the VA GOP has been a mirror image of the national GOP in its doubling/tripling down of reactionary, radical, racist, policies after each loss. I thought Smilin’ Ed Gillespie might pull the wool over voters’ eyes in the last gubernatorial race, but he veered Trumpista in the last month of that race and paid the price.
Jeffro
@Aleta: I don’t understand why the Palestinians don’t just take his advice and ignore all that history and stuff and give the Israeli hard-liners everything they’ve ever wanted.
Dumb Palestinians! It’s a trumpov-style DEAL, don’t you get it?
Raven Onthill
@Adam L Silverman: But, in Iowa? Only 15% or so participate in the caucuses. So, low turnout. Hard fought, though.
I would caution against giving much weight to “message;” the largest plurality votes on personality, and the second largest group is low information. So we don’t know. I think Warren actually has a better chance in a lot of the midwest than Sanders despite the polling; she looks the part, whereas Sanders looks really strange to most midwesterners. Biden’s really smooth, but I think oppo might catch up with him. Also, who knows where Bloomberg will spend his money?
Jeffro
@Barbara: Yup. I think that while VA’s big cities and suburbs ‘carry the day’ when it comes to elections, folks are missing how the college towns are also pretty blue due to returning alums settling. (Not just to vote of course – these are some great, fun towns!)
Jay
https://www.wonkette.com/need-another-reason-to-support-universal-healthcare-how-about-medical-debtors-prison
Barbara
@Jeffro: Yes, though I would happily take Shepherdstown off of WV’s hands if it’s too blue for them.
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: I thought through the rest of this joke and now I keep thinking “Whoah-oh Black Biden, bam a lam”
I blame you for this.
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard:
via GIPHY
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: I salute your gif game, sir.
WaterGirl
@MisterForkbeard: I sing that to my kitty. Oh-oh black kitty, bam ba bam, oh-oh black kitty ban ba lam…
L85NJGT
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
You mean his nominations for Attorney General, Secretary of Labor and Treasury Secretary? Only half kidding here, because who the hell is he going to staff with? Certainly not a bunch of class traitor Democrats. He’ll suffer from the same poor hire problem of grifters and ideological dingbats pulling Trump under.
Steeplejack
@Kay:
I love your heartwarming family vignettes.
Omnes Omnibus
@MisterForkbeard: Campaign needs a theme song.
Mnemosyne
@Kay:
You’ll finally get to have the traditional Not in MY house, young man! argument with him. ?
Citizen Alan
@Adam L Silverman:
I’ve asked this before, but is there any way of knowing how many of them were ratfucking Republicans to begin with? I live in a ruby-red state with open primaries, and it’s quite common for Republicans to cross over in order to screw with our nomination process.
Kay
@Jeffro:
I have great cost cutting ideas! They just won’t like any of them. First- The Wall. Scrap that. Second? Space Force. Third- repeal the whole Trump tax law. I would also withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan.
MisterForkbeard
@WaterGirl: My cats get a version of “Hush little kitty, don’t mew a word. Daddy’s gonna feed you a little dead bird” and so on.
For the record, it’s cans of chicken.
MisterForkbeard
@Omnes Omnibus: I would donate the entire maximum if they did this. TWICE.
Adam L Silverman
@Citizen Alan: I don’t know and I don’t know if anyone else does either.
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard: Thank you.
Kay
@Mnemosyne:
I won’t. I take voting seriously. I’m glad he wants to participate. He’s going to have to figure this out himself.
The only part of the low-level political argument we’re having that I hate is when he lectures me on Joe Biden. No 17 year old can tell me anything about Joe Biden. I “redirect” when he does that, as we say in the juvenile delinquent trade. I say neutral, non-committal things that are true- I say “I always liked Bernie Sanders”.
In other non-Bernie Bros news we had quite a few women at the Dem meeting tonight. I always feel like that’s hopeful. They vote.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Bush, McCain and Kasich alumnus introduces the McSally ad on his twitter feed
strange phrasing… I wonder if it was McSally herself
Uncle Cosmo
@Baud:
IMO Warren would be almost as much of a disaster as Wilmer but for a slightly different reason.
Presume the Democratic Presidential nominee is elected & inaugurated as POTUS. If it’s Wilmer (or BS as he is appropriately known), no one in recent US history, with the exception of Combover Caligula, will be worse prepared for the Presidency. A BS administration would make Jimmy Carter’s White House seem like an absolute juggernaut of efficiency & effectiveness. Wilmer would fumble away his first 2 years finding out that it’s hard work to pass any laws & probably wouldn’t stoop to learning how. Meanwhile the Federalist-befouled courts would strike down any & all of his executive orders & the GOP-Complicit Media would savage him hourly. Come 2022 Tea Party 2.0 would take the House & most of the Senate seats up for grabs & in 2024 a more competent fascist (maybe a Tom Cottonmouth, maybe a fullbore fundangelical RWNJ like Heinlein’s Nehemiah Scudder) sweeps to a landslide victory.
Warren is far more knowledgeable and competent. Should she become POTUS we would likely see an immediate push to enact the fistful of plans she’s put forth. There are a few problems with that. First, no plan survives contact with a fractious Congress and the vested interests who exert influence with them. Those interests will have a field day pillorying every last item. Think Hillary Clinton and the 1993 health care task force. Whatever plans emerge are almost sure to be folded, spindled & mutilated beyond recognition. Look at the Rube Goldberg of the PPACA – which Obama expended nearly all his political capital to pass. And once again the Federalist-infested courts will strike them down on the flimsiest of pretexts – & the Complicit Media will caterwaul over the awfulness.
But wait, there’s more! Even if those plans survive the wrecking crew & become law, the electorate will ask how we pay for them. And when the Warren Administration says they’ll make the rich pay for them, derisive laughter will ensue. Because every USAn knows that the rich always skate – they will never pay their fair share into the society; their pet lawyers & judges & legislators will see to that.
What would POTUS Warren do? Back off on those programs until she has the electoral clout to actually force the rich to pay? Not bloody likely. Passionate partisans will wring their hands & insist that these programs are soooo wonderful they’ve got to go into effect – & look for other ways to pay for them. And like every other Democratic administration, their gaze will fall onto the middle class. Whose tax burden will go up, not just to pay for their own part of the programs but also for the poor who cannot pay for themselves. And the middle class will say, Screwed again – paying way more than our fair share while the rich skate & the poor jump on our back. And at that point come TeaParty 2.0, a GOP landslide in 2022, gridlock & ineffectiveness until that more-competent fascist takes the Oval Office by a landslide in 2024.
In either event: Finis democratiae.
Almost none of you understand this because your whole conception of the future ends with a scene like Election Night 2008 with crowds celebrating the Democratic victory – and then a miracle happens & we all live happily ever after. You forget the long, tough, dreary, thankless slog of the next 8 years, that gave us precious little but Obamacare and in the end Trump. You ignore the cold fact that Obama was an aberration, in much the same way as FDR in 1932, owing his election to the parlous state of the economy, the electorate’s terror, and his opponent’s obvious inability to persuade anyone he understood enough to lead the nation through the crisis.
And you do this at the peril of liberal democracy itself. You go off stanning for your oh-so-progressive heartthrob of choice, licking your chops at the thought Now it’ll be our turn. Just as the German Communists thought when Hitler took power. And in fact they got their turn – 12 years later, after untold destruction and 40 million dead, in the eastern half of their country – & it lasted 44 wretched & oppressive years before it collapsed. That’s not what you want but it may well be all you – all all of us – end up with for your troubles. Bah.
Omnes Omnibus
@Uncle Cosmo: Congrats, you may well be the first person to post that Warren would be an unmitigated disaster. I think you are way off base, but kudos for staking out your position.
mrmoshpotato
@Kay: As the Rethuglicans do every fucking time they blow up the deficit, and a Democratic candidate takes back the White House.
Brachiator
@Uncle Cosmo:
Yawn. What is this? A re-elect Trump pitch?
Any Democrat elected president will face these challenges. What else you got?
Obama was an impossibility for some. Until he got elected. Now he is part of a tradition, from at least FDR to Harry Truman, to JFK, even on through Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.
Trump, on the other hand, is the biggest fucking aberration in the history of the universe. And the idea that somehow, Obama’s election — twice — was a trick of nature is both offensive and ridiculous. Surely, you are pulling our legs, right?
About the only thing reasonable in your post is that Sanders might be a disaster. But he would still be better than Trump.
MisterForkbeard
@Brachiator: I think Cosmo had a bit of a point here. Warren had been very specific about many of her plans, but due to the Senate and other factors some won’t be implemented and others will be very different from the original proposal.
I can see this being “4 years of broken promises” in the media. It’s stupid. But it’s our media.
Brachiator
@MisterForkbeard:
The GOP, since Newt Gingrich, more or less, have declared themselves to be the only legitimate political party in the United States, and have relentlessly pursued obstruction. This will be a problem for any Democrat elected president, even Smooth Joe Biden. So, Cosmo is not saying anything new or original, and certainly is not offering a solution. And again, this relatively new false assertion that Obama erupted out of nowhere and is a miraculous exception to the way things ‘spose to be is ridiculous and fatalistic, and suggests what? that what we really need is a good middle of the road white man to deliver us?
Sorry. This is just a waste of space.
Chris Johnson
@Brachiator: Yup.
What’s the alternative, that we’re obligated to push for Biden (or what, Bloomberg? Buttigieg?) who will make a point of NOT trying to do anything useful and then… what?
We’re up against Russia-guided nihilist fucks protecting their last shreds of political power. If we go into a Dem presidency with no plans and no clue, we’re going to have a bigger disaster.
Arguing that Warren would have more coherent plans and encounter resistance as if that is in any way a problem, is bonkers. Having no plan or making no efforts to fix problems is supposed to get more cooperation? From THESE people?
It does however outline the next Russian tactic very nicely: if they can’t stop us righting ourselves, their job becomes obstruction and making the ‘story’ be chaos and disaster, whether it is or not. So thank you, Uncle Cosmo, for apparently telegraphing obvious Russian media plans.
I would be real suspicious of that except for they are not NEW plans, you’re just taking them at face value and assuming they will be powerful and infallible democracy-wreckers. I call bullshit on that: we’re not necessarily going to fail THAT hard, even with Putin’s thumb on the scales. Trump is the black swan event. Sensible governance is simply not that hard.
Uncle Cosmo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The only place any halfway sane person would care to see those 3 as “public faces” is a post-office wall: one pair apiece, front & profile, same number underneath.
Uncle Cosmo
I think I’ll take these responses one at a time.
There’s very little “false” and “ridiculous” about it. In 2004 Obama had served as an IL State Senator for 3 2-year terms & 4 years earlier had been whipped 2-1 in the Democratic primary for a Congressional seat by the incumbent. He parlayed that keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention into a landslide victory for a U.S. Senate seat – aided when his GOP opponent dropped out in late June over sex-club allegations & he ended up running against Alan Keyes, who pegged out within sampling error of Bob Altemeyer’s authoritarian-follower base crazification factor (27%). Four years later Obama was elected POTUS.
Just FTR: IMO Obama is arguably the best President & the most gifted Democratic politician of the last 50 years, & we are lucky to have had him. But (also IMO) those who cannot see his rise as a near-textbook example of “erupting out of nowhere” (with some rather significant boost from the national party & sheer luck) have forgotten, if not willfully ignored, a shit-ton of inconvenient history.
I despise people who say they’re “sorry” when they aren’t – no reason beyond sheer cussedness to add hypocrisy to the roster of sins.
A good case can be made that your posting history shows you as (at best) naive at the level of national politics. And that you are inordinately (& unjustifiably) convinced of your own political acumen.
I didn’t mean to single you out – there are a passle of Jackals I could say the same about – but you did invite it by responding. (I used to think progressives were immune to Dunning-Kruger, but after years at BJ….)
Uncle Cosmo
Sorry you got that impression. IMO a President Warren has the potential to be a barely-mitigated disaster. I think she’s astute enough to see the risks inherent in pushing programs that can’t be funded without tapping the middle classes. But I have doubts she’d be able to resist the pressures from the Democratic left wing to do it anyway – much of it arising from a barely-concealed contempt for those classes as having skated on their societal responsibilities almost as shamelessly as the bazillionaires – or be accused of breaking her campaign promises.
OTOH there is not a whiff of competence (or reality) in the BS campaign. He & his minions would almost certainly keep trying the same losing tactics to pass his programs & expecting a different result, which is one definition of governing crazy.
I get that a President Warren – or for that matter a (ptui!) President Sanders – would be infinitely preferable to Trump’s second term at the moment when they take the oath of office. I am looking farther along & not liking the risk of throwing the government back into the hands of the fascisti for no particular progress. I’m trying to communicate those concerns while we still have a choice of nominees.
Uncle Cosmo
We should talk about what’s “useful.” I maintain that the single most pressing needs are (1) to push Trump & his evil minions out of the seat of power, and (2) do everything possible to discredit homegrown & Putin-assisted fascism & bigotry as politics unacceptable to American democracy. So the first job – probably jobs 1 through 10 – is to win, baby! with as large a margin (in votes & Congresstypes) as possible, and a Presidential candidate that can talk the authoritarian-curious back off the ledge.
IMO the one candidate who can put together the broad coalition required – & who can persuasively appeal to the “better angels” of a lot of otherwise-not-especially-awful folks who seem for the moment to have forgotten them – is (doghelp us) Biden.
He has his flaws – no argument there – but he has his virtues as well. Very few will cross him off the ballot because he’s the wrong color or the wrong gender or the wrong ethnic. He has major cred with the AA community as a national white politician who served willingly & well as second banana to the first black POTUS.**
I believe we need to aim for a victory so drastic it will discredit the GOP. Even a 60-40 blowout would leave the nation in a precarious state, with enough MAGAts nurturing grievances & maintaining a veneer of respectability for their noxious “ideology.” Aim for something that will send the bigots & fascists scurrying back under their rocks. That means the broadest coalition that can be assembled. And it means that any major policy initiatives (beyond rolling back Combover Caligula’s obscene executive orders) will have to be put on hold. When the carrier is grievously wounded, you don’t keep it in harm’s way – you nurse it back to drydock, work round-the-clock to fix the worst of the damage, and then send it out to sink enemy flattops & change history for the better.***
Now obviously most of my argument hinges on the assertion that the election of Barack Obama was an aberration, that in fact the USA is very far from the color- and gender-blind polity we all hoped it was on Election Night 2008. IMO history since then – 44’s long uphill slog against torrents of shit the consistency of molasses, HRC’s continued demonization and Mango Mussolini in the Oval Office – makes a persuasive case, to the point where I believe most of those who think otherwise are living in a fantasy world. YMMV of course…even though I’m right. :^p
** Which I suspect is what the polling showed when Kamala Harris tried to kneecap Uncle Joe in order to scoop up his support among AA women & instead torpedoed her own campaign. They trust Biden – & they understand that he can win over many voters who would never support her.
(FTR I also suspect that many of the same Jackals who’ve hectored us to “listen to AA women!” are adept at going deaf in both ears when those fine ladies say something they don’t want to hear. We’re all human.)
*** A la USS Yorktown, from the Coral Sea to Midway. You could look it up.