Chinese regional dishes cheering on Wuhan's signature noodle dish. Their little signs say "keep fighting, Hot Dry Noodles"*. I can't fucking take these emotions. pic.twitter.com/AyrYPvb3fj
— Sneer Review (@TheSneerReview) February 1, 2020
With permission, from longtime lurker / new commentor YY_Sima Qian:
(Caveat, what follows are entirely my experience and my opinions from my observations, I am not a medical professional and do not work in public policy)
What is life like in Wuhan under lock down?
To date, most people are just hunkering down to ride out the storm. I don’t sense mass panic or groundswell for social unrest. People are anxious, glued to TV and phone screens, news outlets and social media platforms for updates. Of course, we are early into the lock down (I can’t believe it’s only been a week). If it persists, then the level of disquiet could rise rapidly, but the epidemic will prevent people from congregating physically. So far there is not a significant shortage of food or basic necessities, no disruption of utilities. The supermarkets are mostly open, but shopping needs to be done in the morning, or a lot of shelves will be empty by afternoon. We are planning to order via APP and have grocery delivered to our building, to avoid the crowds. Prices are generally stable and align with historical norms, as the government has vowed to severely punish any price gouging. Medical supplies (masks, alcohol, sanitizing agent, etc.) are more difficult to get, but I understand it may actually be easier to obtain in Wuhan than the rest of China.
The exception to the above are families of those diagnosed or suspected to have contracted the 2019-nCoV. The medical services are overwhelmed, despite herculean efforts to date. Lots of horror stories to be found on Chinese social media or even digital platforms of state media (but not print or TV). More on that later.
How is the medical care situation in Wuhan?
Dire. Hospitals are completely overwhelmed with people seeking treatment, both actual infected and those suffering from common flu (because this winter there has been a widespread flu epidemic in China, too). There are not enough beds in isolation ICU in all of Wuhan to take in all of the people with severe symptoms (2019-nCoV or not). Respiratory infectious diseases require rooms with negative pressure, so total number of hospital beds available is meaningless as a metric.
In my wife’s admittedly large circle acquaintances, we are aware of two cases where the elderly infected developed severe and life-threatening symptoms, but could not get tested with the 2019-nCoV test kit and be admitted into the isolation ICU. One died in the hall way of the overcrowded ER. We are also aware of two cases where the elderly infected have severe enough symptoms that would warrant going into ICU, but cannot due to lack of beds. Nothing anyone can do but hope and pray they either pull through or hang on long enough for beds to become available.
Wuhan’s response started too late, and has been desperately playing catch up. I think they are taking the right courses of action on paper, but several steps too late and often executed poorly to date. When the public became really aware of the epidemic on 1/22, people with symptoms (2019-nCoV or not) all rushed to hospitals (especially the five or six biggest ones with the best reputation), leading to massive overcrowding and likely significant cross-contamination. The day after the lock down was declared, a number of hospitals were designated for treatment of suspected 2019-nCoV cases. However, they often do not have large isolation wards built, and the conversion take time. To relieve overcrowding at hospitals, the government then instituted a system asking people to go to community clinics first for initial screening. Those with light or moderate symptoms are asked to stay home and self-quarantine (which I think is what the WHO recommends as well). If people develop severe symptoms, they are to report the neighborhood committee and the community clinic, and arrangements will be made for transfer to one of the designated hospitals. Select people are given lists of people to check up on daily (via phone). Both my wife and my mother-in-law are responsible for such lists. Looks great on paper, but in practices the medical staff and the community clinics are poorly trained to identify moderate symptoms from severe ones, and 2019-nCoV symptoms from the common flu, so they are not yet performing the filtering function as intended. Furthermore, I have seen cases reported to neighborhood committees and community clinics, but no follow up from the authorities. I can only imagine the chaos behind the scenes.
Hopefully, when the two temporary hospitals are build and come online next week, the bed availability issue can at least be relieved. Construction is being live streamed, with 20 – 40 million viewers at any given time. Huanggang, another city in Hubei, is also building such a facility.
Medical supplies (masks, suits, goggles) are in dire shortage. Lots of stories of doctors and nurses on the front lines in close contact with patients have to make do with masks that are not quite rated for the job, but they do it anyway. To minimize consumption of masks/suits/goggles, doctors and nurses are working 6 hour shifts without meal or bathroom breaks. Medical staffs are exhausted, working extended, even with thousands transported in from hospitals around the country, but seems to be better than this time last week.
Test kits are also in dire shortage, leading to slow confirmation of cases.
What about the situation in the rest of Hubei province?
I don’t really know. The focus of new media and social media in China has been understandably on Wuhan. The other cities in Wuhan have even less medical service resources than Wuhan, and people from the province have tended to go to one of the top hospitals in Wuhan for major illnesses. On the other hand, the reported cases are also much lower than Wuhan, relative to the respective populations. I haven’t seen many horror stories on social media from other cities in Wuhan.
How about the rural areas? Are they able to cope?
Medical care in the villages are much more limited than in the cities, and they would not be able to handle a significant outbreak. However, Chinese villages are mostly close-knit, self-contained and self-sufficient communities. As soon as awareness became widespread and containing the epidemic became a national priority, villages in China essentially raised their draw bridges – raising road blocks and manning check points to prevent outsiders from entering. Anyone returning from Wuhan or Hubei province for the Chinese New Year are quickly identified and families placed into virtual quarantine, or convinced to go back.
On the plus side, I think these measure will actually prove effective in containing the spread of the virus. On the down side, all the road blockages is wreaking havoc on regional logistics. I just read a story today that said 600 million chickens in Hubei are at risk of starving to death, since the chicken farm operations are having difficulty getting the feed to their chickens.
How about the rest of China?Even without official lock downs, people across China are strongly encouraged to stay at home, and most people seem to be obeying most of the time (further encouraged by inability to purchase masks). Public places are much more sparse. From the WeChat messages of my friends and colleague across the country, people are bore out of their minds and are counting down the days to when they can return to work. Chinese government has delayed the end of Chinese New Year break to 2/2, and a number of provinces and municipalities have further delayed it to 2/9. Most people I am in contact with (they invariably live in large cities) are dealing with the situation with humor, if sometimes black humor.
The hospitals outside of Hubei are not over-stressed. If you develop light to moderate symptoms, there is a good chance you will be relatively quickly diagnosed and treated. People from Wuhan and Hubei are required to stay home and self-quarantine.
Can we trust the numbers from China?
The numbers from Hubei and especially Wuhan are not accurate, useful for only looking at the trend, at best. Not necessarily because the government is trying to suppress the numbers (although there could be pressure for that). In Wuhan, at least, people with light to moderate symptoms are staying home to self-quarantine. They are not captured in any statistic. Even the severe cases or deaths, if they have not been confirmed by test kit, are not counted as confirmed cases (some may not be even counted as suspect cases). They will likely end up in the flu or other pneumonia column as causes of death.
My WAG (and that’s all it is) is that the number of infected in Wuhan could easily be north of 10K, with tens of thousands not out of the realm of possibility. However, I suspect that the vast majority of the uncounted are likely to be the younger and healthier people with light to moderate symptoms before they fight the virus off, despite the horror stories we have heard or read. At least in Wuhan and possibly Hubei province, most of the reported suspect cases are likely to be 2019-nCoV cases (essentially just waiting for confirmation via test kit), but Chinese data does not break down suspect cases by location, only confirmed cases, deaths and cured cases. The number deaths reported due to 2019-nCoV in Wuhan is certainly too low, due to the factors I stated before. (2 – 3X higher is my WAG). On the other hand, accurate data could actually show that the severe case and death rates are lower than currently reported (~ 20% and ~ 2%, respectively).
I think data from provinces other than Hubei are probably more reliable, since the government and medical institutions are not nearly so over-stressed. The data overseas should be reliable.
The next few days will be critical. If the confirmed + suspected cases in other provinces in China reaches inflection points, then we know the lock downs and public awareness campaigns are effective. It will take longer to reach inflection in Wuhan and Hubei. The rapid increases we saw in the past few days has already been baked in, will likely continue for at least a few more days.
How do I see Chinese government’s (at various levels) response?
Well Wuhan municipal and Hubei provincial have certainly come off as incompetent and paralyzed, even other provinces put them to shame. I get that quarantining 50 million is unprecedented in human history, and a great deal of chaos and ad hoc is to be expected. However, a disturbingly large number of measures appear to be right in the broad directly but not at all thought through in detailed execution.
Why did the Chinese authorities react so slowly and who is the culprit?
I am not sure. It could be Wuhan municipal government or Hubei provincial government not wanting to rock the boat during the Party congresses in December and before Chinese New Year. My wife has a relative who works as a front line employee for the Wuhan branch of the Chinese CDC, as of 12/30 he was not even aware there was novel viral outbreak! He then was mobilized and had to work through the New Year long weekend. It could be the Chinese national CDC, who has the authority of declare public health emergencies, its head was stills stating publicly on 1/19 that “there is only evidence of limited human to human transmission”. It could be that the lower levels, including the national CDC, were silenced by the central leadership. I have relatives who work in hospitals in Nanjing, in the Jiangsu province. They told me they have heard through the grapevine that there situation in Wuhan was concerning as early as end of Dec., but were afraid of speaking out. Given they work in another province, it would suggest the pressure is coming from the national level.
However, January saw Chinese provinces move more quickly than Hubei at the center of the epidemic, before it was made widely public on 1/22. The neighboring province of Henan shut down all long distance bus service to Wuhan as early as 12/31, and mobilized villages and townships to what out for returnees from Wuhan and prepare for quarantines. Several provinces announced Level 1 (the highest) public health response, on the day of the wide public disclosure. Wuhan went to Level 2 the day after, and Hubei Level 2 the day after that. That’s on Wuhan and Hubei governments.
Now that the situation has reached crisis level in China, I do think the CCP with its Leninist structure and authoritarian nature, can mobilize and organize resources from the national to the grass root, and everything in between, in response. My belief is that the structure and dynamics of the CCP regimes makes it more likely for the situation to get out of hand (due to slow and muted response), but when the situation do get out of hand, the CCP regime has greater capacity to respond than any other government, regardless of the form. Vietnam Communist Party’s grass root organization is not as strong as the CCPs, and neither Vietnam or the DPRK have the PRC’s resources.
I saw a good Max Fisher column in the NYT a few days ago that discussed the CCP regime’s strengths and weakness, in context of the 2019-nCoV epidemic. Admittedly, he focused more on the weaknesses than the strength, but people should not underestimate the strength of the regime and the level of support it has.
How much should people outside of China, especially in the US, be worried?
No need to panic. There are choke points in people flow across national borders than can be manned or shut down. I actually agree with the decision to shut down commercial flights between China and the US, and the Do Not Travel advisory, but trust the Trump administration to screw that up and do it in an ill-considered manner. The long incubation period, and the potentially contagious people with no or slight symptoms make this epidemic very difficult to contain once there is a significant outbreak (see Wuhan). By the time authorities see a spike in cases, an outbreak probably has already happened.
If you are a medical or public health official, be extra vigilant. If you are elderly with medical complications, be extra extra careful, but you should be due to the flue season anyway. The Bloomberg article linked [here] has the best summary I have seen.
Worst case, the epidemic will die down in April or early May, due the onset of warm weather.
Here's a link to the artist's Weibo: https://t.co/4mbbmJCVbS
— Sneer Review (@TheSneerReview) February 1, 2020
germy
Officials confirm 1st case of coronavirus in Massachusetts
Massachusetts health officials say a Boston man has tested positive for the coronavirus, the first case in the state.The Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Boston Public Health Commission say they were notified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the positive test results late Friday.They said the man, who is in his 20s, recently traveled to Wuhan, China and sought medical care soon after his return to Massachusetts.
Barbara
Wishing you the best. I realize it must be difficult for authorities to know exactly what to do, but it must be frustrating to see mostly ineffective overreaction that is done for public consumption because they didn’t do enough when it actually might have helped.
Another Scott
Thank you YY_Sima Qian and AL. Sobering, but not unexpected, news.
Fingers crossed.
Cheers,
Scott.
jl
I heard an interview with an infectious disease epidemiologist. Kind of depressing. He said that if it commonly can be spread before or just as symptoms develop and it is as infectious as influenza, there is no stopping it, Quarantines, and closures and travel restrictions are justified only to buy time for development of more rapid tests, and learning better supportive measures to reduce death rate until (hopefully) a vaccine is developed.
I guess only good news I heard is that more evidence is coming in that the official estimate of cases is probably way too low by a factor of two or three, so case fatality rate will probably turn out to be more like 0.5 to 1 percent, not 2 to 3 percent. Even so, that would mean the world will have to deal with an influenza like disease that is 4 to 10 times more deadly than influenza itself.
Anyway, I ain’t no epidemiologist, but I have done research on the economics of infectious disease control and everything he said made sense to me. But… I still hope it is not as bad as it seems.
Edit: they guy said one thing we do know for absolute sure: as it spreads it will be a big burden on health care systems around the world. There is a health system in the US that is pretty effed up already, so hope we can buy time if its spread is unavoidable. So, if this guy is right, I hope the time scale for eventual spread around the world is years or decades.
Gin & Tonic
@germy: He returned to Boston through Logan Airport, obviously. Terminal E is the only international terminal there, which is where I dropped off my wife a couple of hours ago. She was as careful as possible not to touch things, but that’s hard when you’re going through security.
JPL
This was the most detailed comment that I’ve seen on our site, and I hope things normalize soon. Even with the flu, the numbers are just guesses, because most just treat it at home.
Spanky brought the comment to my attention earlier.
piratedan
@jl: well this is going to hurt the US no matter what, more spread in the big cities… but fewer medical treatment facilities in the rural parts of the US now, the regional small bed community hospital is a thing of the past… and I sure as hell don’t trust THIS administration to do a fucking thing if this thing grows. I see them hoarding vaccines and parking behind gated enclosures…
jl
@piratedan: One thing he did point out is that time scale of its spread is completely unknown, but faster now because of air travel. He said it didn’t seem to be nearly as infectious as 1918 flu pandemic. He is an infectious disease epidemiologist at University of Minnesota, and he sounded like he really knows what he was talking about. I didn’t catch the name. I’ll go to their website and see if I can find something.
The Dangerman
This thing will have run it’s course prior to early November, right?
jl
@piratedan: Also too, Warren has a plan for that!
Ninedragonspot
This is a valuable report and tracks with everything I’ve seen on Chinese social media. The fortitude of the citizenry has been remarkable.
Stay safe and healthy, Balloon Juice’s own 司馬遷. Keep us updated, when convenient.
鼠年快樂, 平安健康 &
武漢加油!!!!!!! We’re rooting for you!
germy
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1223659708072038400
jl
@germy: Thanks, that is a great twitter feed. I’m bookmarking it.
WHO says that there is evidence that transmission from people without, or before, developing symptoms is rare. That would be very good. Means that the U Minn epidemiologist I heard was too pessimistic.
germy
Another Scott
@germy: Thanks. That’s good news, and makes sense.
(People with the flu are infectious when they have symptoms, fever, etc., and not otherwise. This should be similar. Here’s hoping it is.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Ninedragonspot
@jl: not all fatalities end up in official statistics. People die before they can be officially certified as infected with this virus. The size of the undercount is still a significant unknown.
germy
@jl: Don’t scroll too far down (like I did) because there’s a disturbing video I wish I hadn’t seen.
NotMax
We’ll never get any hard data but strongly suspect North Korea has by now been impacted as well.
germy
(parody site)
Dorothy A. Winsor
OT, but this will cause some excitement:
germy
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
“I’d like to speak to the manager”
YY_Sima Qian
I love 热干面 (Hit Dry Noodles)! But I won’t be venturing out to the hole-in-the-walls (where the best examples are to be found) any time soon. :-(
With all the flight cancellations, and remaining flights sold out, getting my 72 years old mother out of China is proving to be a challenge. She is in Nanjing with her family (staying in doors), having left Wuhan 18 days ago. Thankfully no symptoms, with daily temperature checks from the community clinic. She is in the clear.
State Department advises US citizens to fly commercial, but there are very few options left. Transit through third countries are no longer viable as SK and JPN are refusing entry of any non-citizens from China. No idea if more evacuation flights are planned, but there must be tens, if not hundreds of thousands of US citizens in China. The logistics would be a nightmare, and I am not confident that the a trump admin can handle it. No idea on the quarantine procedure for the people returning to the US, either…
I got her on a China Eastern flight from Shanghai to SFO in a few days. Hopefully it won’t be cancelled.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
So here is a useful dashboard site that is providing a useful overview of the outbreak I’ve been following it for a week, and it provides well organized data.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
dmsilev
Talked with one of my minions yesterday. She had gone to China in December to visit family and renew her US visa. Because the latter can take an indefinite amount of time, we arranged for her to do some collaborative work with a colleague in Japan. Her visa is now ready, but… she can’t fly into China to pick it up, or if she does she’ll find it hard to get back into either Japan or the US. Not sure I had much useful advice to offer beyond “wait it out”.
At least her family is nowhere near the epicenter.
dmsilev
One thing which I found both depressing and inevitable was that a few days ago, the computer game developer Ndemic, best known for their title “Plague, Inc”, had to release a statement saying that their game was …just a game and shouldn’t be taken as any sort of realistic model of how an epidemic might spread.
In related news, Greenland closed its ports.
ziggy
Thank you so much YY, that is a very interesting and thoughtful analysis of the situation, and well written also. I so appreciate these “in person” stories.
One more question I have is–what is it really like? basically a bad flu? Surely there have to be a fair number that are developing immunity by now.
Best wishes for you and your family, hoping that the virus poops out soon for one reason or another, though that seems unlikely.
NotMax
As there are confirmed cases on Macau, expect Adelson’s casinos are taking a financial hit.
;)
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@dmsilev: I have seen that too, Ndemic has had a recurring issue with this. I vaguely remember that there had been a spike with MERS (Middle east respiratory syndrome) too (SARS was before the game came out). I cant seem to find a good link since the google AI seems to be completely focused on the coronavirus.
Steeplejack
@germy:
One of many similar comments:
germy
@Steeplejack: During the Obama administration, he criticized Obama for golfing during emergencies.
So now he’s taunting us by posting old photos of him golfing, even when he isn’t golfing? I’m trying to follow his logic.
Another Scott
@germy: Indeed. (Part of the Popehat Family of Companies.)
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
@Steeplejack
OT. From yesterday.
Shots Fired After SUV Storms Past Mar-A-Lago Checkpoints; 2 People In Custody
Chris Johnson
@germy: Or somebody is covering up the fact that Trump is completely hysterical and incoherent. Could be he’s flipping out and unable to handle the delay, so they gotta lie on his behalf.
zhena gogolia
@Steeplejack:
OMG, that’s right.
OP — Very helpful post — thanks.
zhena gogolia
@germy:
He is in very bad physical shape. They are going to have to keep trying to conceal it with baldfaced lies.
germy
@Chris Johnson: Well, it’s showtime on Tuesday night.
YY_Sima Qian
@ziggy: My uneducated opinion is that its effect is like a severe flu strain on the younger healthier demographic, but much more threatening to the elderly and those medical conditions. There is no cure, no immunization yet. You are entirely dependent on your immune system to fight it off. If you can fight it off, it doesn’t really matter whether you visit hospital not. If your immune system is weak, then going to the hospital gets you at best a somewhat higher fighting chance. The daily tragedy in Wuhan is that families will lose loved ones without ever having gotten than somewhat better fighting chance, and the survivors (most likely the children of the deceased) will live with the anguish, regret and guilt for the rest of their lives.
zhena gogolia
@germy:
zhena gogolia
@YY_Sima Qian:
Your analysis sounds consistent with what I’ve read.
Another Scott
Related, from Al Jazeera – “BREAKING: Philippines reports first coronavirus death outside China, a 44-year-old man from Wuhan”
Nothing else but the headline so far. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@germy:
At least one Twitter account—maybe the one Patton was replying to—thinks the doubtful provenance of some photographs (there have been others) and some videos perhaps showing a Trump double on the golf course is part of a cover-up of Trump’s increasing physical problems.
The Dangerman
@Steeplejack:
So, upping the Adderall should up the snuffing on Tuesday. Should be wonderful. I’ll skip.
Another Scott
@Steeplejack:
Not directing this criticism at you! :-)
https://trumpgolfcount.com/displayoutings
Donnie lies about just about everything, but the knee-jerk reaction that absolutely every picture is somehow fake is making critics look like deranged cranks. I wish people would slow down.
He looks thinner in normal clothes than in his circus tent suits.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
Americans have a right, indeed an urgent need, to know whether their president is suffering from dementia. We see clear signs that he is, but the only way to find out for sure is to give him a full neuropsychological evaluation and share the results with the American public. The need is more screamingly obvious now than it was a when we first called for it over a year ago.
Steeplejack
@Another Scott:
Nonetheless, it was still cloudy and raining in south Florida this morning, as reported by people who live there.
zhena gogolia
@germy:
Good piece.
germy
@zhena gogolia:
He’s not the same person he was
Steeplejack
@germy:
I’m sure that’s in Part 2 of the regularly scheduled annual physical that he started suddenly on that Saturday in November.
Oops, sorry—“planned interim checkup.”
Steeplejack
@zhena gogolia:
I’ll wait until Dr. Phil weighs in. ?
Another Scott
@Steeplejack: He was there almost 5 hours (9:50 – 2:40) according to that site. The tweet in the NYPost story was posted at 11:14 AM (16:14 UTC), so EST.
I can’t find any hourly weather report at the moment for what it was there 12 hours ago.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
(“It’s still stupid. Donnie’s closing the borders, destroying the federal government, blowing up the middle-east with his “plan”, etc., etc., and people on Twitter want to yell about whether he’s not fat enough and whether he was really playing golf today or not…”)
zhena gogolia
@Another Scott:
I don’t think you have really looked at that picture.
You think it’s irrelevant that we don’t know the actual state of the president’s health?
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia: IMHO, President Crimey has dementia, has had TIAs or strokes, especially recently, and is in very poor health. He has been in terrible condition well since before he rode down that stupid escalator with all the paid people in the audience clapping at him.
I don’t need to speculate about a golf picture on Twitter to know that.
This incident reminds me of the earlier tweeted picture of him at the breakfast bar. I wasted too much time on that, also too. I’m trying to learn…
We’ve got better things to do with our time, IMHO.
YMMV!!! :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Emma
Thank you for the in-depth report. I keep flashing back to memories of my grandfather, who was so happy driving around Singapore during the height of the SARS crisis because “there’s so little traffic!” *facepalm* I picture a few Chinese grandpas and grandmas now who DGAF, driving around Guangzhou or some such.
NotMax
@Steeplejack
So routine and planned that the Walter Reed complex was caught off guard.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Another Scott:
The point is not some mean-girl bitching about how fat Trump is but that in this case he seems to have lied about something so basic that multiple people on Twitter independently mentioned it. So, if the photograph is a “lie,” what is the reason for it? It doesn’t seem outlandish to entertain questions about his health.
YY_Sima Qian
@Emma: You can probably imagine the arguments I had with my dad to get him on the evacuation flight from Wuhan.
Another Scott
@Steeplejack (phone): Everyone will be able to see for themselves on Tuesday. Assuming he actually gives the speech, of course.
I, personally, assume the photo is genuine and was taken today.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
I can’t imagine the horror of being cast as a Trump-double. “Bob if you want to keep your job, you’re going to have to stop ordering the Spinach Salad and start doubling down on the cold, day-old Big Macs.
Emma
@YY_Sima Qian: :)
Unfortunately, the same sort of mentality also ensured that my grandfather didn’t get his esophageal cancer diagnosed until way too late, so also :(
Steeplejack (phone)
@Jinchi:
Have you seen a MAGA rally lately?! They would have no problem finding a likely candidate size-wise.
Jackie
@Steeplejack: Exactly my thought today upon seeing that tweet. Weather was NOT sunny nor golf friendly this morning. I can’t vouch for the 100 lbs – he is wearing a MAGA hat, so taken w/in last 5 yrs…
Cheryl Rofer
@Jinchi: The Secret Service always has a body double available for the President. I recall a Bill Clinton appearance in which he was accompanied by a taller man (there is always a gaggle, so this was one out of 7 or 8) with a very similar strikingly gray pouffy hairdo. The idea is to draw fire from a sniper, which doesn’t require an exact match, just enough that the sniper might get it wrong. Trump’s hairdo is distinctive enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the biggest point of similarity too.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Oh, and it’s most likely that the Tweet was intended to be a snub of Guaido (WaPo link) as Venezuela probably isn’t paying Donnie enough. Like Ukraine.
Grrr….
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
@Steeplejack (phone): I suppose I outed myself as a radical leftist with the whole “Spinach Salad” comment.
Cheryl Rofer
Thanks for the report, YY_Sima Qian, and the continuing coverage, AL.
NotMax
As the thread is meandering, somehow the Senate chaplain’s not too subtle invocation flew beneath my radar.
Senate Chaplain Used Opening Prayer of Impeachment Trial to Issue a Brutal Warning for Senators
Jinchi
I suppose in the case of a Trump double that requires an exemption from the mandatory physical fitness regimen those guys have.
NotMax
@Jackie
Hat could be a tell, as the new one advertises Keep America Great.
Brachiator
Thanks very much for this insight into what is happening in China. Very vivid and informative.
The medical and economic ramifications of what is happening are tremendous. How the US responds may have an unexpected impact on the presidential campaign.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Jinchi:
You know what you did.
Jinchi
Thanks for the background Anne and YY.
That was the most detailed description of the situation on the ground in Wuhan that I’ve seen.
Take care and wish you the best.
opiejeanne
@piratedan: There’s a multi-part documentary on Netflix called Pandemic. It’s very timely, but I wish they’d put dates on the particular illnesses they talk about. Some we already know, but others not so much.
Also, the rural hospital issue is addressed with an alarming look at one in Oklahoma, in a county with about 7000 people and one doctor in the hospital. I don’t think there’s another doctor in the county.
The Dangerman
@Cheryl Rofer:
Cash on the barrelhead or GTFO.
Brachiator
I’m not sure whether this has been mentioned already, but a BBC News story reports that some people in Hong Kong are asking for the border to the mainland to be sealed off.
debbie
@Cheryl Rofer:
And someone volunteers for that???
Cheryl Rofer
@debbie: See! I’ve just made everyone feel better about their jobs!
debbie
@Cheryl Rofer:
?
jl
@Ninedragonspot: That is true. Also true that there is great uncertainty in the number of cases. From what I have seen in the news, several independent estimates (mostly from Chinese Universities) of the number of cases has been going up faster than the number of known fatalities.
But, you are correct, we won’t know for a while. Probably have to wait for retrospective demographic studies using vital statistics to really know. Ability to do those estimates are at least several months away. . So huge uncertainty right now.
Keith P
@Jinchi: That’s where the washouts go….to serve as sniper targets
Martin
Data yesterday suggested they might be getting a handle on it, but today’s numbers made up for the good news – likely just a delay in reporting, or a lack of test kits that got cleared up a day later.
Outside of China, cases are growing but slowly. Nothing to be concerned of. And ⅔ of cases in China are still in Hubei, so even other parts of China don’t appear to be terribly stressed.
The good news is that there is no rapid acceleration. It’s growing, but you aren’t seeing a rapid geometric growth. I’ve got a case a mile from me, and it’s worthy of jokes but not concern.
We do have a LOT of people wearing face masks, but wearing a face mask is as much a sign of courtesy as it is an actual attempt at protection. It’s completely normal for my asian neighbors to don a facemask the moment anyone in their house gets a cold.
Mary G
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you so much for delurking and giving us such a vivid picture from ground zero. I hope your mother makes it to San Francisco or another safe place.
The logistics of such a large quarantine are mind boggling. We had a tenant move out after getting his electricity turned off, leaving some beef and two whole chickens in the freezer. My mom threw them in the trash the day after pickup. I have never smelled anything so awful six days later. Imagining multiplying that by 600 million is mind-boggling.
YY_Sima Qian
@Mary G: Well, my mom’s flight from Shanghai to SFO was cancelled a couple of hours after I booked. At this point, I am not sure how she or other Americans in China can get back. Perhaps Hong Kong.
She will hunker down in Nanjing for the time being…
Yutsano
@YY_Sima Qian: Well dammit. I hope she’ll be okay in Nanjing.
rikyrah
Amir Khalid
@rikyrah:
That makes Joe the choice of South Carolina’s local party establishments. It doesn’t necessarily make him the voters’ choice across America.
Mnemosyne
@YY_Sima Qian:
I’m near Los Angeles, where we just got our first batch of Americans escorted back from China. I think they went straight to a 2-week quarantine.
Mnemosyne
@Amir Khalid:
I think the point is more that Biden remains strong with African American voters — most Democrats in Southern Carolina are Black and the elected Democrats reflect that.
Mnemosyne
@Amir Khalid:
Also, too, that museum exhibition that’s currently in Singapore? That’s part of what my little corner of the Giant Evil Corporation does. ?♀️
JWR
O/T Yay! Another ad for that Bernie! olddudebro in SoCal! Before long he’ll be outspending the other oligarchs in the race!
YY_Sima Qian
@Mnemosyne: Yes, my dad is among them.
Cermet
First, thanks to YY_Sima Qian for the report; also, hope his parent gets to safety.
The thing that some people here and alot elsewhere are missing is spring will stop this flu. So, China’s efforts at slowing it buys everyone a great deal of breathing room – if it is slowed enough to prevent a pan epidemic before spring arrives. Then the issue is does an animal reservoir exist (i.e. bats maybe?) that allows it to start up again or does it get a foothold in the southern hemisphere and reapper come late fall in the northern hemispher becoming another, though maybe, deadlier flu?
Again, that depends on if it tends to occupy the upper of lower regions of the lungs during an infection; also, and this appears not to be an issue, if it tends to trigger a massive immune response that turns the body against itself (like the deadly 1918 flu.)
marv
@YY_Sima Qian: Like others here, just want to thank you for writing this. Hard to explain, but for me good, clear, honest communications during a time of crisis is one of the best things we humans are capable of.
HeartlandLiberal
I continue to be fascinated that Cole’s blog attracts the most accurate, thorough commentary on medical issues and the state of insurance industry I come across in online media. Another indicator of the failure of the traditional media, who right now are having heart failure and focused only on the fact that the final poll of the potential caucus goers in Iowa was not released for them to frantically report on over the next 48 hours. I think it goes without saying that the priorities of where to focus attention and report on news by the traditional media is totally in the old outhouse. The American news media have failed the citizens. The Forth Estate as Jefferson envisaged it is dead.
Armadillo
@YY Sima Qian thank you very much for the detailed report.
Things are pretty calm here in Shanghai. To answer the question no one asked: the phrase in the cartoon literally means “add oil” or “add gas” but “good luck” and “keep fighting” are both good translations.
Cckids
Excellent reporting, thank you.
Hoping for no major outbreaks here. One of the not-so-little things falling through the cracks is what Trump & co have done to the system set up to prevent and handle outbreaks of disease. This is from Foreign Policy, it’s frankly terrifying.
I found it at Digby’s place, she does an excellent job of excerpting the most salient facts.
Frankensteinbeck
@germy:
That tweet is so bizarre. It would be innocuously cheerful from any other president, but Trump doesn’t DO innocuous. He’s a bitter pathological liar. It is much more consistent with Trump’s history to believe this photo is a fake and a coverup. However, the same constant, resentful, petty, small child lying that makes it more likely to be a coverup than a real photo drastically reduces the tweet’s importance. It’s more likely to be ‘proof’ he’s not sulking about impeachment than anything else.
sdhays
@YY_Sima Qian: My wife is trying to figure out how to send a bunch of masks and hand sanitizer to friends and family in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong government has shut down the post office until Feb. 9, so sending via USPS isn’t an option. It looks like we’re going to be spending hundreds of dollars on UPS. We’re thinking about having her mother come here to ride it all out, but the flight itself seems rather risky.
Uncle Cosmo
Slightly o/t, but – Saturday early AM I received a robocall from the Bloomberg campaign telling me where to call (800 number) if I want a lawn sign. I’m in Baltimore & the MD primary is kinda late (28 Apr) so I conjecture this is a national
putschpush aimed at registered Democrats nationwide. Anyone else got one of these?In other news, there is a special primary election next Tuesday here in MD-07 to select D & R candidates to fill the late Elijah Cummings’ seat for the duration of his term, with the general to be held at the same time as the MD Democratic primary (28 Apr). Total of 24 Democrats on the ballot, led by Cummings’ widow & the Congressman he replaced (Kweisi Mfume). There seems to be something of a intrafamilial kerfluffle here, as two of Cummings’ daughters by prior marriages have endorsed Harry Spikes, his CoS, instead of their stepmom. I’m tempted to toss my vote his way. Whoever wins (other than Mfume, who’s in his 70s) is odds-on to hold the office for awhile, so this is kind of important. Anyone out there hear anything? (Asking for a fiend [sic].)
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Another Scott: I think the weather is a better place to criticize that photo from.
Uncle Cosmo
@Uncle Cosmo: A too-late-to-add addendum to the above: Adding to the familial drama, two of the late Rep’s sisters are backing Mfume. There is a whiff of opportunism surrounding the widow, who first registered to vote in MD in 2014 & was running for the 2018 gubernatorial nomination until her late husband was hospitalized & was later elected chairman of the MD DNC.
Ramalama
Whatever you do, do not read the novel Station Eleven. I repeat do not read.
Sister Golden Bear
@Mnemosyne: South Carolina is also the fourth primary, and comes before Super Tuesday.
So if Biden is strong with Black voters there, he likely wins that primary, thus shaping the all-important (to the media) horse-race narrative. I.e. “after losing Iowa and NH, Biden makes a strong come back.”