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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / ‘Novel’ Coronavirus Update – Sunday / Monday

‘Novel’ Coronavirus Update – Sunday / Monday

by Anne Laurie|  February 3, 20204:58 am| 19 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs, Healthcare

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CORONAVIRUS

– 362 people dead

– Over 2,000 in serious condition

– Over 17,000 people infected, with around 400 people who have recovered.

– Over $400 billion wiped off Chinese stock markets today

– Infections in 24 countries

– China says it urgently needs medical equipment

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 3, 2020

This is a pretty interesting tidbit from the most recent @WHO report on #2019nCoV. Not surprising – kinda sad, but definitely necessary. The R0 of misinformation is massively higher than the R0 of the virus.https://t.co/xJao5bGLg6 pic.twitter.com/jq7nJUxnvu

— Kristian G. Andersen (@K_G_Andersen) February 2, 2020

For the first time, coronavirus got the top slot on the evening tv news — either it’s broken through the America-centric media barrier, or all the ‘name’ reporters were busy with Super Bowl prep. Seriously, though, I suspect the people who are in a position to make the rest of us care about a news event have decided this is gonna affect their bottom line. It’s no longer the proverbial nine days’ wonder — attention must be paid.

CNN, this morning:

The US has begun implementing new rules around travel from China as the coronavirus death toll creeps higher — rules that include re-routing Americans flying into the country to specific airports for screening…

In the US, government officials urged residents not to travel to China, issuing a level 4 travel advisory, days after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

For Americans who traveled there in the past 14 days, the US Department of Homeland Security said there are a total of 11 designated airports — including John F. Kennedy International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport — where travelers can enter the US. Those airports, the government said, have more resources to conduct enhanced screening procedures.

If passengers are screened and show no symptoms they will be re-booked to their final destination and asked to “self-quarantine” inside their home, DHS says…

To help expedite that process, Wolf said, Customs and Border Patrol and air carriers will identify passengers who fall under the restrictions before their scheduled flights.

“Once back in the U.S., it’s imperative that individuals honor self-quarantine directives to help protect the American public,” he said in a statement.

The new rules also mean foreign nationals who were recently in China will be temporarily denied entry into the US, Azar said…

Coronavirus death toll in mainland China has overtaken SARS: https://t.co/D2ECueXZN9 #WMTW

— WMTW TV (@WMTWTV) February 3, 2020

From Patient Zero to nearly 12,000 cases: How early missteps and secrecy in China may have allowed the coronavirus to spread. The definitive timeline from ?@gerryshih? ??@emilyrauhala? and ?@bylenasun? and our amazing Beijing team https://t.co/Cx1RRHbK39

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) February 1, 2020


Actions that the Chinese government take to fight novel #coronavirus are effective, Kung Phoak, the Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN, said in an exclusive interview pic.twitter.com/yuDZDQJPnZ

— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) February 3, 2020

Top officials in Southeast Asian countries dependent on China have played down the threat of the coronavirus and shied away from travel bans. Some have even pushed supposed remedies not supported by science. https://t.co/bDFuWL5dTr

— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 3, 2020

Among many important details from @HelenBranswell excellent article today, this one on the backlog of testing in China. Also believed that they are rationing testing to only highly probable cases, so most of the milder cases are likely being missed. https://t.co/xGhaipsagP pic.twitter.com/QYyNQD9fRi

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) February 1, 2020

#Cainiao launched its Green Channel initiative to bring medical supplies to areas hit by the coronavirus outbreak. Since last week, the initiative has delivered more than 5 million masks, 7,000 cases of disinfectant fluid and 40 tons of food to affected communities. pic.twitter.com/nvLSGXotMc

— Alibaba Group (@AlibabaGroup) February 3, 2020

"we need to get out of this habit of pumping the public health system full of resources when we have an outbreak at our doorsteps and then [later] starving the public health infrastructure of resources." I talked to @DiscoverMag https://t.co/JBM2tKXJST

— Saad B. Omer (@SaadOmer3) February 2, 2020

?NEWS: UK Government has pledged £20 million to help develop a new vaccine for coronavirus and other infectious diseaseshttps://t.co/qhpNDQKgku

— Foreign Office ?? (@foreignoffice) February 3, 2020

"Chinese oil demand has dropped by about three million barrels a day, or 20% of total consumption, as the #coronavirus squeezes the economy" https://t.co/NVwjQIrjfh

— Kabir Taneja (@KabirTaneja) February 3, 2020

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Reader Interactions

19Comments

  1. 1.

    Sab

    February 3, 2020 at 5:04 am

    I have Chinese members of extended family. Amazed that hardly anyone happened to be in China for this new year.

  2. 2.

    Rusty

    February 3, 2020 at 5:19 am

    From a NYT breaking news email last night, “Breaking News: Hospitals are running out of test kits and sending people home with fevers, our reporter writes from the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.” So it’s not just a backlog of test kits. The fatality toll and reported number of serious infections are probably a better indication of the spread of the virus.

  3. 3.

    Sab

    February 3, 2020 at 5:36 am

    @Rusty: We decided to outsource most of our medical supply chain to China. Then we elected Trump. What could possibly go wrong.

  4. 4.

    Sab

    February 3, 2020 at 5:58 am

    @Sab: Oh yeah. A virus.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 3, 2020 at 6:35 am

    I won’t be writing a long opus today. :-)

    The WP article is quite good. OT: Often times I find reporting on China in English language MSM to be quite skewed, myopic to the point of being divorced from the larger reality as experienced by the vast majority of Chinese. (At least in the areas dominated by Han Chinese. I can’t comment on the quality of reporting on events in Tibet or Xinjiang; what is happening there is far too opaque to me.) In the past two years I feel the media coverage is also being tinged with an ideological flavor, as if the MSM elites are conditioning themselves (and being conditioned by segments of the policy elites) for a new Cold War with China.

    The last time I saw such quality reporting on major news event in China was following the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. The similarity with 2008 is that the CCP regime is currently allowing fairly free wheeling discussion in media and especially social media, as long as the accusations do not point toward the central leadership. The motivation is probably to relieve popular pressure, salve popular discontent, and expose problems and wrongdoing that are causing these discontent. This gives western reporters a lot more materials to work with and better access to sources.

    In Chinese media, Southern Metropolitan, the Paper, Caijing, Caixin, Xinjing all have done superb on the ground reporting. Caixin just published an in depth series on the outbreak in Wuhan, one taking a close look at the play by play in Dec. to Jan. (like the WP article), but from the perspective of front line medical workers. It does not pose the question who is responsible for the lack of transparency and the slow response (that would be courting trouble), but leaves it to the reader to ponder (as readers inevitably). I hope they translate the articles and post them on their English site, soon.

    I expect the relatively openness (which is still less open than post-2008 earthquake, IMO) to last until the current crisis subsides.

    Wuhan has just announced new policy to isolate all suspect cases, cases that cannot be rule out as 2019-nCoV, and people who had close contact with confirmed or suspect cases. Hotels and guesthouses have been commandeered for this purpose. Wuhan probably should have done this sooner, other cities and provinces have already implemented such policy earlier. One of the consequences of the combination of the outbreak exploding around Chinese New Year, plus the lock downs, and the public awareness campaigns to urge people to stay home, is that often three generations of people who have united before the lock downs for the Spring Festival are now stuck in crowded flats. If one person was infected, then the rest of the family members are also infected in short order. So the spread (in Wuhan, at least) are now more within family, rather than from neighbor to neighbor, co-worker to co-worker, stranger to stranger. It appears to be rare for infants to catch the virus, young children do not appear to present even moderate symptoms. The parents will probably fight through, but the grandparents are in serious trouble.

    There are three families with confirmed cases in my apartment complex (different buildings), in each case every family member (no children among them) is confirmed or suspected (based on symptoms, not necessarily recorded as such in official statistics). We are aware of two further such families amongst our admittedly large circle of acquaintances.

    The good news is that the trends outside of Hubei appears to be turning, with slightly decreasing number of new confirmed cases in each day. Nationally, the number of new suspect cases are also smaller than new confirmed cases, so perhaps tracking and cycle time to confirmation is improving outside of Hubei. There will now be another wave of human migration as people return to work this week or next, excluding Hubei which will remain under lock down. Fingers crossed that it will not result in new unmanageable outbreaks.

    Something is strange with the data from Henan and Jiangsu provinces. The increase in confirmed cases is just about perfectly linear. Does not makes sense, unless these two provinces are only allotted certain number of test kits per day…

    The city of Shenzhen is starting to build a temporary hospital with 1500 bed capacity for 2019-nCoV cases, to be completed in 10 days, despite only having 200+ confirmed cases so far. As a city of immigrants, it must be preparing for the possibly that the large influx of people returning from Chinese New Year break bringing a wave of cases, and not want to be caught with its pants down like Wuhan. For the people in Wuhan, especially the family of the infected, the 8 – 10 days it is taking to build the two temporary hospitals (first of which went into operations today) must feel like a lifetime. For the severe cases desperate for hospital bed and treatment, the wait is a lifetime…

  6. 6.

    Elizabelle

    February 3, 2020 at 6:59 am

    @YY_Sima Qian:   I am so glad you are writing here.  Thank you for your on the ground recounting.

  7. 7.

    gbbalto

    February 3, 2020 at 7:13 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for posting about your experience.  Best of luck and health to you, family, and friends.

  8. 8.

    phdesmond

    February 3, 2020 at 7:16 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: let me also thank you for your thorough reporting.

  9. 9.

    Cermet

    February 3, 2020 at 7:30 am

    Again. thank you YY_Sima Qian; hope everyone in your family remains well!

    The 17000 sick and 2000 seriously ill does not necessarily follow; I bet there is a vast under count of ill because those cases are mild to very mild and so, never tested. Very good news infants and young children seem to not be getting seriously ill. That is the best news I’ve heard so far and very encouraging!

  10. 10.

    JPL

    February 3, 2020 at 7:49 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thank you so much for the update and stay well.

  11. 11.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 3, 2020 at 8:33 am

    @Cermet: I can’t take the 2K serious cases number seriously. In Wuhan, only those with severe symptoms gets a CT scan to confirm lung infection to be declared a suspect case. They then get in line for confirmation by test kit. Only positive test results are declared confirmed cases, who then wait in line for bed in isolation ICU at one of the designated hospitals. So I would think most of the confirmed cases in Wuhan are in serious condition. In Chinese statistics there are “severe” cases and there are “critical” cases. Perhaps “Serious” cases in the tweet actually refers to “critical” in Chinese statistics, which are those that require significant intervention to stay alive. Anecdotes I have read in Chinese media seem to suggest that the majority of critical cases do pull through.

  12. 12.

    arrieve

    February 3, 2020 at 8:48 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Just want to add my thanks for your updates. I hope you and your family continue to stay well.

  13. 13.

    Bill Arnold

    February 3, 2020 at 10:02 am

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    Thanks.

    Anne Laurie: thanks for doing these updates. I hadn’t been tracking the WHO work; nice to see.

  14. 14.

    Elizabelle

    February 3, 2020 at 10:08 am

    FWIW, the coronovirus pandemic has been the top story on the BBC half hour recap for about 10 days now.

    Watched it on the cruise ship, which offered BBC (Coronovirus — anything but Brexit, which we mention in passing only, coronovirus, coronovirus), Fox News (John Bolton, traitor) and MSNBC (impeachment, impeachment, impeachment.)

    It’s like a terrible epidemic allowed BBC to slide right past Brexit coverage, until the day the separation occurred.  (We did get to see Nigel Farrage being sternly reprimanded — by a woman — for trying to wave his little UK flag at the EU congress.  Made me think of … other presumably small things.)

  15. 15.

    Fair Economist

    February 3, 2020 at 10:15 am

    Seriously, though, I suspect the people who are in a position to make the rest of us care about a news event have decided this is gonna affect their bottom line.

    China will have to have social distancing measures and reduced production for months to control this thing. Even if they get R0 down to 0.5, it will take 3 months to eradicate it – and expecting that is wildly optimistic. There are a lot of different extremely bad scenarios that are realistic possibilities, #1 being that it goes endemic worldwide, permanently, as a worse version of the flu. This is going to have huge economic impacts.

  16. 16.

    TomatoQueen

    February 3, 2020 at 10:15 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Joining others in thanks for your cogent, thorough reports and in best wishes to you and family for continued good health.

  17. 17.

    Emma

    February 3, 2020 at 10:45 am

    Re: ASEAN, the chairmanship this year is with Vietnam, which is one of the more combative states when it comes to Chinese influence, both because of historical animosity and current maritime shenanigans. But there’s definitely a split between the more pro-PRC countries (Myanmar is notoriously so) vs. the more anti-PRC countries, and even Vietnam will avoid criticizing China if there’s no real gain. The secretary-general is Bruneian, though, and I don’t have any clue what Brunei prioritizes vis a vis China.

  18. 18.

    lumpkin

    February 3, 2020 at 12:25 pm

    Something I don’t understand. There are reportedly 17,000 cases of the disease in a population of 1.44 billion people. That’s .001% of the population. It just doesn’t seem like that should be such an overwhelming number.

  19. 19.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    February 3, 2020 at 12:54 pm

    @lumpkin: If that is the number of people who have actually been tested and found to have the virus, there may be many people who were not deemed “sick enough” to be tested or hospitalized, so they may go uncounted.

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