Looks like we could use a new open thread.
Just a quick note, they have changed the way that they are reporting the Iowa Caucus results tonight.
They will report the initial result. Then the final result after the second round when caucus goers redistribute themselves after their first choices don’t make the 15% cut off threshold. Finally, they will report the preliminary delegate count. The preliminary delegate count is not the final delegate count and that could change, which would be a fourth result, when the Iowa Democratic Party holds its state convention. As a result, we could get three different winners tonight with a fourth potential winner a couple of months down the road.
Obligatory!
This is going to be a shit show.
Open thread.
Baud
In some sense, we are all winners.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: MSNBC is talking about that.
schrodingers_cat
This sounds super confusing. But then I remember this the state that sends Joni Ernst and Steve King to Washington.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Seems like Buttigieg really hurt Biden in Iowa.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: those are, as I read it, first choices…
and I’m sorry, I gotta say it: What do Iowa people see in Buttigieg?
janesays
I think the only one that ultimately matters in any meaningful way is the delegate count.
janesays
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: In a word, youth. That’s my best guess. If you took the exact same dude with the exact same positions but put him in the body of a 55 year old man, he would have dropped out months ago.
Baud
@janesays: That’s the only thing that officially matters. Everything else is about media spin.
schrodingers_cat
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: He was quite popular on Balloon Juice this spring and summer.
Azhrie139
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: A better moderate candidate than Biden. Personally I am rooting for Klobuchar in that lane, but it looks like I might not get that.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That’s the real divide in the Democratic Party. Chris Hayes said they were “traumatized” by the financial crash. I don’t know if that’s true but I think it WAS more profound than was generally acknowleged.
janesays
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: None of that is surprising. Sanders is killing everyone else among the youngest voters, and Biden is killing everyone else among the oldest voters. That’s been the case for some time now. Gen Xers like me don’t seem to have locked on to any one particular candidate.
sdhays
@janesays: If you put him in the body of a woman, he wouldn’t have raised $500.
Mnemosyne
@janesays:
I’m guessing that it’s also because he’s a Midwestern small-city mayor. And not a woman.
Mathguy
Is it a bad thing to think that karma is a wonderful thing when an evil Nazi gasbag that smokes cigars has lung cancer? Asking for a friend.
janesays
Hate to say it, but if Warren finishes a distant third (or worse) here tonight, then I think she pretty much has to finish in the top two next week in New Hampshire, or her campaign is finished. Biden needs to worry if he doesn’t even hit the viability threshold of 15%. I never expected him to win Iowa, but it would be pretty bad if he got completely crushed here.
janesays
@Mathguy: I’m glad Rush Limbaugh has cancer, and when he dies, the world will be a slightly less shitty place without him in it anymore.
Yeah, I said it.
Adam L Silverman
@janesays: Young voters don’t turn out. So polling highly among them is a pyrrhic victory.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Standardized test scores slipped for people that age at that time. Because the idiot adults at the state level decided to balance their budgets in a depression by cutting school funding. It is one of the most selfish, short sighted things I have ever seen.
janesays
@sdhays: Sad but true.
WaterGirl
@janesays: I think the delegate count matters the least. Iowa is only some tiny % of all the delegates.
What matters now is being able to say “by this measure, I won Iowa”. It’s possible that 3 people get to say that, which would be awesome.
Chyron HR
Well, if Bernie wins Iowa I’ll definitely be forced to reconsider my assessment that he’s a white nationalist NRA lapdog.
Adam L Silverman
@Mathguy: It is not. But it is déclassé to wish cancer or any other painful, horrible debilitating disease on anyone. Even someone who routinely wished painful, horrible debilitating diseases on others.
schrodingers_cat
@sdhays:
Or a Hispanic person who could speak Spanish fluently.
Butter Emails
@janesays:
There’s still a big question of whether there will be much separation between the candidates.
janesays
@Adam L Silverman: Except when they do. Like in 2018. Their turnout is still terrible relative to older generations, but the youth vote turnout has ramped up dramatically in the age of Trump.
But you’re correct that Sanders can’t clinch the nomination with only the youth vote. It remains to be seen whether or not he can be competitive enough among 35-60 year old Americans to have a real shot at the nomination.
James E Powell
@schrodingers_cat:
Remind me. Is that good or bad?
Kay
@janesays:
I agree about Warren and Biden worries me. I’m happy for the Bernie supporters though- they worked hard and it looks like they got their people out. Well done.
Shrillhouse
@Baud: To tell you the truth, I’m tired of all the winning…
Dan B
@schrodingers_cat: Some people like Buttigieg. Some posters who did have stopped commenting. I haven’t seen Satby in a while. A couple days ago there was a post mentioning Buttigieg and the comments were akin to He gives me the creeps. He reminds me of mindless privileged ypung white guys. Etc. There were more critiques of personality and ad hominem attacks than policy or tactical critiques.
He has policies that are unworkable and blind spots. The american public is as likely to vote for an openly gay man (sodomy in the White House, or who would be the first lady?) as for a socialist.
He’s fourth on my list but that puts him ahead of Bernie and Bloomberg, let alone Gabbard.
Adam L Silverman
Speaking of obnoxious gasbags, from his June 2016 visit.
https://www.independent.ie/style/celebrity/celebrity-news/film-maker-michael-moore-visits-julian-assange-at-embassy-34788794.html
sdhays
@schrodingers_cat: We had W. //
janesays
@Butter Emails: True. It’s possible we have a scenario in which 4 different candidates reach viability, and the gap between the winner and the fourth place finisher is less than 15 points. If that happens, the race is just as much of a complete tossup as it was before tonight.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: About 1% of all the delegates. At most.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: And heaven knows we are de classiest jackals around.
Adam L Silverman
@Chyron HR: Always important to be constantly reevaluating your a priori assumptions.
schrodingers_cat
@James E Powell: I have no idea. I am just reporting the sentiment. There was a small minority that was not enamored by the boy wonder and I was one of them. But even I prefer him over the senator from Vt.
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
Weird how all the radical transparency came to a screeching halt when Trump was elected.
Information no longer wants to be free, I suppose.
Adam L Silverman
@janesays: The question will be whether his younger supporters are willing to move to a second choice or vote strategically or if they just go home and stay home because Senator Sanders didn’t make the cut.
janesays
@Dan B: Yeah, and in 2006, it was still a pipe dream that an African-American would ever be elected president. I think Buttigieg’s sexual orientation is one of the least likely things to keep him from winning the presidency. His thorough mediocrity is what will ensure he never gets close to the Oval Office, at least not anytime in the near future. Nobody really seems to care about a candidate’s sexual orientation anymore except for people who wouldn’t vote for any Democrat even if their lives depended on it. Even the far right wingnuts are starting to have a few more prominent gays in their ranks (Trump’s U.S. Ambassador to Germany is an openly gay man).
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: It was never about radical transparency.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@janesays:
the scuttlebutt on twitter and podcasts is that he has a pretty weak ground game and he’s fourth in fund-raising (not counting, I believe, the billionaires). The first one is on him, the second one is a telling and worrisome sign for us bloodless old pragmatists
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kay: (This is my shocked face.)
Anya
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: also Yang
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
It never made sense to me. I didn’t understand why I was supposed to trust them – I can do two things at the same time- I can not trust the CIA and also not trust Julian Assange. I don’t want “trust”. I want an orderly, transparent process that is regulated.
Adam L Silverman
This was a battle of wits, and Nina Turner came without ammo.
janesays
@Adam L Silverman: Are you speaking generally, or just about the Iowa caucuses specifically? It seems pretty likely that Sanders is going to either win or come in second in Iowa, so I’m not sure if his supporters there are going to have to worry too much about making second choices right now.
schrodingers_cat
@sdhays: I legit loled
Martin
@janesays: What matters is how the fundraising changes after tonight. That’s why Iowa matters – some will walk away with loser stink and with it the money will start to dry up.
The best outcome for tonight is that it’s roughly a tie among the leading candidates and basically none of it matters other than to push Gabbard out.
Anya
If Biden doesn’t hit the viability threshold of 15% I think his campaign will have a huge setback and he might not be able to recover from it.
NotMax
@Dan B
satby was around in several threads yesterday and is almost always present in the morning thread.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Anya: the O’Bros aired interviews with people at all the different candidates events today. Not a scientific sample, but more people talked about automation than UBI, which I figured was his hook (What I know about him is mostly through passive osmosis, I’m constantly surprised he’s still here). They were about half and half on who they’d vote for if they couldn’t have Yang, trump and Sanders.
Martin
@janesays: Iowa is very old other than a few high population areas with a a lot of college students. We’re not seeing the caucus with 11 people out in East Jesus. They have an outsized influence on the outcome, in the same way that 10K people in Wisconsin mattered more than 4.2 million in California.
Anya
@Adam L Silverman: they both look like they don’t bathe.
I wonder why Wikileaks went out of the business of leaking secrets?
Aleta
The Post’s live stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl0q4rUo9CY
ABC and NBC are streaming (and t-a-l-k-ing) too.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: Maybe you could trade that out for the thumbnail size, on account of it’s dinnertime somewhere and no one wants to get indigestion. :-)
Adam L Silverman
@janesays: Both. I expect significant amounts of his supporters won’t redistribute on the second round, they’ll just go home. And then when the general rolls around, if he’s not the nominee, they’ll stay home. Or they’ll vote for the President. Or they’ll vote third party. Or they’ll write his name in.
Kay
Accountability is too divisive. Okay doke.
They’re not at all like children- if children had a banner they marched under it would say “fair”. Children would have punished Trump. Because that’s fair.
They’re like insanely permissive parents. Bad, neglectful lazy parents. It’s easier to let him off.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Adam L Silverman: I hated Bernie when Nina Turner was still with the Clintons, but if I didn’t hate him already, I’d be deeply disturbed by the people he chooses to surround himself with. In spite of my best efforts, I heard more of Michael Moore’s emo-bleating this past weekend than I have in years.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: What I read earlier is that they were urging them to align with the candidates that are perceived as the least threat to Bernie.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I heard that podcast too. I was struck by the fact that all three Yang supporters they interviewed identified as Republicans.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Wow! No one saw this coming.
AP Entrance Poll shows Pat Mahomes coming from behind to win Iowa Caucus.
Adam L Silverman
@Anya: They were never in the business of leaking secrets. They were always a front for disinformation, misinformation, and agitprop.
Karen
Sanders can’t clinch the nomination with only the youth vote.
But if he doesn’t win, will the youth vote for whoever wins the candidacy?
Anya
@Adam L Silverman: she’s so myopic and so obnoxious. I can’t stand her. I guess I need to check myself and ask why I dislike her so much because I seriously feel guilty about having this level of negative reaction to a progressive black woman.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: No. And I may set up an automated tool to email you other pics from that visit at half hour intervals. Because I’m a sharer.
Dan B
@janesays: It’s good to hear this but as a gay man I’ve been shocked at the prejudice of people of people who are liberal on almost all accounts and still creeped out by gays. When elections are decided by 1% that matters. I’ve been ensconsed in liberal gay friendly Seattle for decades and still have acquaintances who have been harassed. Our neighbors go to a black church whose minister preaches hell fire damnation to gays and the horrible recruiting of children. Things have improved but there’s a ways to go.
Pete seems great at retail politics and it’s great to have a gay candidate who is not dismissed out if hand just because he’s gay. I would dread what would happen if he got the nomination so second or third place would be preferable.
janesays
@Adam L Silverman: God she’s a toxic fucking moron. I really, really, really hope that if Sanders isn’t the nominee, MSNBC, CNN, and every other mainstream media outlet stops putting a microphone in front of her fucking face. She’s going to be one of the fuckheads who obnoxiously pulls out her Bernie or Bust card and sows division in the party base in October, because she really believes everybody who isn’t Bernie Sanders is as bad as Donald Trump.
Mike Bloomberg is terrible. I’m really irritated that he’s running for president. I wish he wasn’t. Until the past week or so, I assumed the guy had no prayer in this race, but I’m starting to worry that might not be the case. I’m still inclined to think he won’t be the nominee, but it would be crazy to outright dismiss him at this point.
With that in mind, I will work my ass off to see that the Democratic nominee wins the election in November, regardless of who that person is – which means that both Sanders and Bloomberg would have my full support if either becomes the nominee (God I hope it doesn’t come to that). Because either one of them would be light years better than the alternative – four more years of a literal fascist who will oversee the outright criminalization of abortion in more than half the country if he gets re-elected.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: If you want her as the Chief of Staff, Sirota as Director of Policy, and that shitposter woman he hired to be his spokeswoman, then you should vote for him.
Adam L Silverman
@Karen: Those that are not Bernie supporters may. Those that are Bernie supporters will not.
dm
Appropriate use of a Bloom County cartoon — Berke Breathed (creator of Bloom County) used to live in Iowa City.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: That would be awesome.
Matt McIrvin
@Dan B: I said at one point that I preferred him to Beto O’Rourke, but I don’t even think that’s really the case any more. Moot anyway.
Adam L Silverman
@Anya: She’s not progressive. She’s a sycophant. She decided she wouldn’t get anything important from HRC if HRC won – whether that’s true or not, I have no idea – so she jumped to Senator Sanders and became his chief acolyte. That’s all there is to her. It doesn’t matter what her gender is, what her ethnicity is, or what her religion is. All that matters is she’s an opportunist who thinks she is supposed to be important.
Kay
@janesays:
Well, if Biden’s really weak better to find out earlier than later. It just seems like he could have made a bigger play for the +65. That’s his strength there and it’s 35%. Just to keep it respectable. They must have know Mayor Pete was his real challenger. They weren’t going to get Bernie’s youngs.
JMG
Iowa determines nothing except what stupider pundits (which includes all of cable news) will blatt about until New Hampshire, which for reasons of feeling important will do exactly the opposite of what Iowa did (look it up, that’s what’s happened since 2000). Does not mean a thing about the race. All four of the top contenders plus Bloomberg have ample resources and support to continue well past Super Tuesday.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
MSNBC reporter in Clive, IA (just west of Des Moines) reports a lone Tulsi Gabbard supporter who vowed to remain unmoved. He eventually went over to the Klobuchar team.
I don’t get people.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: Always thinking of others. That’s me.
Immanentize
@Kay:
Truest thing you ever said. And you have a huge list of true things said. Have you ever watched 10 year olds play four square? They are rule mavens. Fairness cops. I joke that the Immp’s language arc was:
Truck
Turtle
That’s not fair.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Let me make a call, we should be able to have one delivered.
Mary G
Iowa is having its first ever Spanish language caucus (WaPo)
I am so used to seeing election materials with a long list of languages available here in California (today is the first day we can vote by mail) that this seems really strange to me. Glad they have this there now finally.
I am also so happy that by the day after tomorrow, we can go back to mostly ignoring Iowa for another 3.75 years.
Mike J
My twitter feed is half people saying “Bernie is smashing all before him here in I City!” and half people saying “Klobuchur and Buttigieg 1st and 2nd, Sanders not viable in W DM.”
sdhays
@Dan B: I think it’s presumptuous for someone who’s top elective accomplishment is running a small city to think they should be President. But I hope all the exposure provides him with a stepping stone to something greater – it’s a problem that political talent in red states can be wasted because there’s no viable path to higher office. If he finds success on a larger level and runs again, I’ll hear him out.
schrodingers_cat
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes. What is with the disheveled appearance and the faux working class schtick. Annoying.
schrodingers_cat
@Mike J: Rose Twitter is pooh poohing BS’s Russian connections
Immanentize
@Dan B: The Republicans would not target Pete, they will target Chasten.
JaySinWA
@Adam L Silverman: The magazine, I presume since you used the singular. But the lack of capitalization leads to ambiguity.
BruceFromOhio
@Adam L Silverman:
Mai naem mobile
I don’t get the attraction to Bernie. I want to believe that Dems don’t buy into the free everything but maybe they’re just as stupid as GOPrs who think you can get tax cuts and spend tons of money on the military and not make cuts in entitlements. He comes across as a grouchy crank. He doesn’t have a huge list of accomplishments in the Senate. I just don’t get it.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
If this holds, Pete will have exceeded expectations and he can legitimately call himself “The Comeback Kid”.
It would also be a major failure for Wilmer; this was his best state outside of New England and he was ahead in the polls.
James E Powell
@Dan B:
I never heard anyone say they were creeped out by Buttigieg because he is gay. From what I heard and read here, it was McKinsey and his habit of talking like an early 90s DLC corporate tool. A couple of times it seemed like he was criticizing Hillary Clinton, but that wouldn’t creep anyone out, it would just piss them off.
Dan B
@NotMax: Good to hear she’s around! She seemed exasperated with people who were disdainful of Buttigieg. There are some weird tropes going around like “Pete has zero support from African Americans.” There are a few candidates that have credible support from black voters at this point but Pete got the treatment while even Harris had vanishingly small support. We have made up our minds on what can be described as anecdotal evidence. It’s impossible to know if Pete is secretly racist, naive, clueless, or whatever from the modest set of data we have. Satby has seen him up close for years and seems like a better judge of character. There’s also the fog of war situation from so many malign players. It’s confusing and takes a lot if energy to avoid.
BruceFromOhio
@Karen: Ask a young person with a Feel The Bern2020 sticker on their Toyota Corolla.
oldgold
Attended caucus.
There was a real age divide. Joe had no support from anyone under 40.
A surprising number of Latinos. Split between Warren, Yang and Warren.
No drama or acrimony. Beat Trump was the unifying theme.
bluehill
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
This is what Putin and Trump are counting on. Probably not a coincidence that Trump has been accusing the dems of trying to steer the nomination away from Bernie. He’s likely the one candidate that could cause some dems to stay home on election day whether he gets the nomination or not.
Baud
@James E Powell:
The gay will be an issue if he’s the nominee. Whether it works or not is anyone’s guess.
Kay
@Immanentize:
I LOVE the mitigating and aggravating factors. “he’s bigger so he can’t hit her”. Then another “but his grandfather just died” – all makes perfect sense to me. The biggest outrage is collective punishment, as it should be, under the Geneva Conventions :)
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I could live with that.
Gvg
@janesays: you don’t hang out near the wrong people, aka evangelical and racists. I assure you his sexual orientation will be a red flag to a certain segment of our voting public. He isn’t yet known enough to warrant their targeting him, but if he gets closer to the nomination, they will. I am sure we will not elect a gay man yet. This is my cynical about my fellow Americans opinion.
Also after seeing the backlash against Obama and Hillary losing, I am feeling terribly afraid and want a certain win. I know other democrats in my area who feel the same. There is no way we are going with risks like that now. Not only do we fear losing, I fear another backlash. I know that makes me cowardly, but The stakes are so high. Also he just doesn’t have eitherlots of experience or amazing intellect, so he isn’t up to the terrible job we need done, which means not this time.
8 or 12 years from now are a different story.
Also some one has to try first before someone else can succeed if history is any guide. Him running and making some mark will help down the line.
Baud
@oldgold:
Huh?
Anya
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: same.
I know we were talking about Mayor Pete downstairs thread but I was actually Mayor Pete curious (not as a president but as VP). I think he’s pretty impressive but he really needs to run for house or maybe run the DNC before he runs for president. And for the love of all that is just, he needs to stop with the stupid “heartland” talk.
BruceFromOhio
@Adam L Silverman:
Don’t use Walmart. Those are usually defective.
Use GrubHub instead. Or CafePress.
Aziz, light!
My father — for most of his life a very pleasant man who was a liberal Dem when I was young — spent the last four or five years of his life as a raging dittohead. He hectored everyone he encountered with a heated retelling of whatever angry drivel Rush Limbaugh had fed him that day: his family, friends, and finally the residents and staff of his assisted living and nursing homes. I visited my dad the day before he died (this was in 1996) and essentially his last words to me were some rant about Chelsea Clinton.
I never imagined back then that the Limbaugh mindset would go on to have a death grip on the nation’s soul.
So as I said downstairs, I will say again to Mr. Limbaugh: suffer mightily before you pass, you putrid sack of pus. A Roman scourge would be too good for you.
Another Scott
@Mai naem mobile: My J is a huge Bernie fan. She’s been a Democrat her whole life, but has been furious with the party since 2015 (or maybe earlier). She’s very lefty and says the party is Corrupt™ and all the rest.
It’s gotten more severe this time – I think she pays too much attention to lefty/Bernie blogs.
(sigh)
She’s got a good heart, but she really doesn’t think about how much of a minority liberals really are in this country. There is no Green Lantern…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
James E Powell
@janesays:
Which means she will be on cable shows every night. The press/media want Trump re-elected. They will do what they can to make that happen.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: A significant portion of rose twitter are Russian.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Hokey Smokes, Bullwinkle!
Adam L Silverman
@JaySinWA: Plausible deniability…
oldgold
@Baud:
Just reporting what occurred.
Jay
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/02/aqap-claims-full-responsibility-for-shooting-at-naval-air-station-pensacola.php
Baud
@Another Scott:
I hope for your sake she doesn’t become a my-party-left-me Republican.
Immanentize
@Kay: It’s so true! “She gets another chance because we’re all bigger. You stepped over the box line twice, so no redo! Ok ok, I need another toss because I slipped.”. They don’t make up excuses yet, they just know when someone either deserves a break or doesn’t. What happens to these brilliant and human judges?
The sense of injustice is innate. But the chalk lines of Justice are hard to learn.
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
There’s no way Bernie would be happy with that result.
BruceFromOhio
@Aziz, light!: My father-in-law followed a similar path, though he llived life as Republican-lite. May he rest in peace, his last words will never be known, he was struck mute for his final days.
And your nym is still best ever. Peace be unto you and yours!
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: That’s what I suspected. Good to have confirmation from you.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mai naem mobile: again, anecdata, but the word of the last couple of weeks seems to be “consistent”, Bernie’s been consistent! That’s nice. Tell me how he’s going to to get bills passed.
I’m mildly exasperated by the people who give themselves over to giddy optimism about plans and consistency and clarity and boldness, but there’s a fatalism about the Senate. You almost never hear people on the street interviews talk about how we’re going to get rid of Mitch Fucking McConnell.
ETA: and that bellowing self-righteousness that people mistake for, I guess, political power
Chief Oshkosh
@Adam L Silverman: Surely you see that there is a difference between wishing a disease on someone versus being glad that they won’t be polluting this orb for much longer?
Either way, who cares? Whether I wish someone is dead versus being glad that they’ll soon be gone has absolutely no impact on when, where, or how the pustule dies.
WaterGirl
@Mary G: OT, but I’m wondering if you got the word that your original calendar order was cancelled.
Anya
@Mai naem mobile: Me *on my death bed, barely able to talk, on my last breath: what did the young voters see in Bernie?
Aziz, light!
@Anya: Magic beans.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@oldgold: I think he’s wondering about that second Warren you mention. S/he hasn’t gotten a lot of press coverage
Kay
@oldgold:
Oh, that’s good. That they’re not nasty with one another. We have to stick together.
This is ungenerous but I find the never Trump Republican pundits crazy making. What if…they didn’t offer advice to Democrats who didn’t get them into this mess and instead are like fucking hostages of their lunatic.
WaterGirl
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Is that for all of Iowa, or just one city?
Jay
@Chief Oshkosh:
then you are doing it wrong,: ) //
janesays
Sure… people who will be voting for Donald Trump and wouldn’t vote for ANY Democrat even if you put a gun to their heads.
There is no doubt that a certain portion of the public would have an absolute collective meltdown if we elected a gay man president. But that same group of people is going to have an absolute collective meltdown no matter who we elect to defeat their orange god king.
Suggesting that we won’t elect a gay man right now implies that there is some large percentage of voters who would be willing to vote for another one of the Democratic candidates, but not Buttigieg. I dare say very few of those people exist. The people who are so disgusted by gay people that they could never fathom voting for one as president simply because he is gay were already voting for Trump anyway.
And just to avoid confusion, I’m not a Buttigieg supporter, though I would happily vote for him if he were to become the nominee (I’ll vote for whoever becomes the nominee, no matter what).
Anya
I used to be pretty impressed with Van Jones. Good times.
NotMax
@Baud
Gotta say it.
As will the Jew should it ever be Bloomberg or Grandpa Gunster. (I see neither as realistic possibilities for nominee, for the record.) Bennett also Jewish, but he’s not a factor in play at this time.
Immanentize
@BruceFromOhio: Aziz Light! Is from
The Fifth Element?
Maybe your quote is too, but I don’t recognize it.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Earl Warren.
janesays
@Adam L Silverman: What is “rose twitter”?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Baud: Exactly. At best Nate is tossing decoys in the air to keep Rose Twitter off his tail.
Dan B
@Matt McIrvin: I believe that Pete and Beto are hampered by being talented people in red states. It’s tough for them to move up the ladder and get the experience they need. Pete’s policies are okay, except for logistics (deal breaker on national stage, sadly /s) for this point in a campaign. Warren’s got detailed but that’s what the party and the congress is supposed to do. She’s still my favorite but.. Liz… Leave room for adjustment. I hope Beto finds a way to make a name but it seems like politics in Texas may not be it. Could he do a Stacey Abrams and lead a movement? Then get back on the national stage.
oldgold
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Oh, I meant to say Warren, Yang and Klobuchar.
Barbara
@janesays:
I don’t know whether it would be determinative, but it will make a difference for some voters who would otherwise vote Democratic.
Another Scott
@Immanentize: rofl.
I hear the neighbor kids playing games sometimes.
“I get another turn because X.” “That’s a home run over there because Y.”
I’m not sure how much of it is an innate sense of fairness, and how much of it is trying to game the rules so that they win.
Hehe.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Chief Oshkosh: I made the mistake of expressing how I really felt about someone well known being stricken with cancer in a comment thread here. It did not end well.
And in my case, I had personal history with the guy.
Eolirin
Seems like a bad night for Warren which is a bit disappointing.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@WaterGirl: You raise a good point, when I go beyond Nate’s tweet, it seems the numbers are from isolated precincts. But Nate is giving it confidence because he finds this tally similar to entrance poll results.
Kay
I love Warren – she’s the closest I’ve ever come to a perfect fit- but I hope she doesn’t stick around too long. She isn’t going to win in the Left lane. I really loved Harris for being such a realist and so graceful about it. I admire that. There should be more of it.
Adam L Silverman
@janesays: People who put a red rose in the Twitter nym to show that they’re socialists. Usually supporters of socialized democracy like in Scandinavia. A lot of Jeremy Corbyn supporters have them. As do a lot of Senator Sanders’ supporters. Some of them are real people. Some of them are trolls paid to foment division and spread disinformation and agitprop.
oldgold
I heard this from a good source. Pete B. hurt himself by complaining about the Des Moines Register Poll. Apparently it would have been good news for him.
Aziz, light!
@Immanentize: Yes TFE. What quote?
Immanentize
@Another Scott: The other kids don’t let them game the rules. But the rules are elastic. Constant rule shades/breakers are kicked out or shunned. It’s so interesting to me when I teach near adults, I try to remind them of those moments. Don’t you remember the elaborate rules of, in my case, home run derby in wiffle ball? Or your group’s version of Hearts or Pinochle? Kids know and respect rules.
Eolirin
@Kay: If she leaves early I think the odds of Sanders having a plurality goes up, and I think that would be disastrous for the party and the country, so I hope the opposite.
Baud
@oldgold: No way he could know that.
Immanentize
@Aziz, light!: Bruce’s bible quote of praise and peace. It seemed incongruous?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Immanentize:
Boron?
janesays
Can somebody explain to me why Deval Patrick is still running for president? Or why he even launched a campaign in the first place? I question whether or not the man will get even a single vote tonight. Deval Patrick is the answer to the question, “Is it remotely possible for there to be an even less relevant candidate this cycle than Michael Bennet?”
Patrick and Bennet should both pull the plugs on their campaigns tomorrow morning. Gabbard should as well, but I know she won’t.
Immanentize
@?BillinGlendaleCA: ?
Immanentize
@janesays: NO
oldgold
@Baud:
Yes, there is.
Kay
Former aide.
When do you think conservatives will give up on conservatives? Every day is like this for them “I believed in you, sir!”
Stop believing. They’re all horrible. None of them rise to any challenge. They shrink. They’re shrinking right in front of us.
Gvg
@janesays: it turned out that a few percentage points of Obama democrats wouldn’t vote for a woman. There are definitely gay phobic democrats. They might stay home and not vote.
i think there are still republicans who might have stayed home, who even “hate” Trump, but who will be motivated to vote against a gay man.
Neither of us really support Pete, nor are really against him. I am dissing the my fellow voters, some of them, just enough, with other factors…guilty because of what ML King said about white moderates, but still…Trump has emboldened some people to really say what they really think and it’s been ugly right around me, not just on the news far away. Every prejudice is still there, including anti gay. Decent people trying to hold the line but President appoints the judges for instance, we must win.
Anya
@janesays: He’s still running? Where?
Kay
Bolton disappointed me not because I thought he was good, but because I was hoping he was malicious and vindictive, more than greedy. Nope. Just greedy.
They’re not even good bad guys.
Dan B
@sdhays: I agree it’s presumptuous of Pete. The message is I’m smart enough and wise enough to do this. Experience and wisdom take time. His policy approach shift from progressive to incremental is one sign. It may be pragmatic given the other candidates but it will give some people who are already skeptical the feeling that he’s slippery.
One thing I see only on gay blogs and websites is how many LGB, not sure about T, people are thrilled with him. One of the wounds inflicted upon LGBT people is the desitmre to be accepted. In order for societal acceptance visibility is essential but that puts LGBT people at risk. And there are many loud voices that claim gay people are “cramming their lifestyles down our throats”. To have Pete out there attracting crowds of supporters is exhilirating. He doesn’t need to win for us to win.
And as I’ve said I don’t even want him to win. If he dies okay he will have done a great service.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: Four words for you: Lord of the Flies.
Baud
@Dan B:
Damn.
WaterGirl
@Baud: What do you think he meant by that?
Dan B
@Immanentize: Chasten, first lady?
Too easy. And to have a cis white male targeted by what is a misogynist trope…
And there would probably be innuendo about who is the woman in the relationship. Many if us are over this but plenty of people are not.
janesays
@Anya: Technically, he’s still a candidate. Officially, per whatever criteria Wikipedia has chosen to define a “major candidate”, there are 11 major candidates still the race: Bennet, Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Patrick, Sanders, Steyer, Warren, and Yang.
I don’t expect any of the four leading candidates to drop out tomorrow, nor do I expect either Klobuchar or Yang or either of the billionaires to call it quits.
That leaves Bennet, Gabbard, and Patrick as the three most likely people to end their campaigns in the next 48 hours or so.
By the time we get to Super Tuesday, I expect we’ll be down to about six candidates left running. And I really have no idea who those six will actually be, other than none of the three I listed above.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WaterGirl: that he’s posting from a phone?
Adam L Silverman
As I was saying.
Gvg
@Dan B: could you reconsider those words and not use die? End campaign please.
I think it helped Obama that Rev.Jacksonhad run years ago, and Shirley Chisholm. Hillary too, and in turn is helping the several women this time, though it’s still up hill. So someone openly gay has to be the first to try.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Gvg: pretty sure that was a typo for “does okay”
Mike in DC
Can’t believe I’m pulling for Buttigieg to edge out Sanders tonight. I’ll be happy with Warren 3rd and Biden 4th. Biden getting pasted in the first two contests will hurt him in the next two.
Dan B
@James E Powell: I haven’t heard anyone here say that they didn’t like him because he was gay. General comments that he reminded them of the Ivy League snotty manager seemed like personality attacks. McKinsey should be investigated deeper and if he does well tonight I want to know details. I thought I read that he didn’t practice the dark arts at McKinsey but don’t quote me.
My statement about anti-gay prejudice is it can be very mild but still enough to be an issue in an election. It’s blindsided many LGBT people and puts me on edge. Seattle has a lesbian (Chamber of Commerce, ugh) Mayor and gay Mayor. There are lots of LGB electeds but the city is something like 15% gay, about the same as San Francisco. Outside of the metro area it’s different and influences elections.
Mnemosyne
@Dan B:
IMO, Pete may be the Jesse Jackson of this election. Remember that there could not have been a Barack Obama without Jesse Jackson paving the way.
oldgold
I am hearing Biden did poorly in the urban areas -Linn County (Cedar Rapids) and Polk County (Des Moines)
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman: But those were ENGLISH children
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m counting on him dropping another bombshell tomorrow around 4 Eastern, early enough to rattle The Beast before the speech, late enough that Kellyanne can’t come up with a spin before the cable coverage starts.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: Children are children.
Omnes Omnibus
@oldgold: “I’m hearing…” What does that mean?
Dan B
@Gvg: I believe Pete is paving a way forward but he would be regarded as a weak commander in chief the same way most “real men” would regard a woman. The view that straight white men are “real men” and all others are lesser is a relic of Calvinism and other brutal strains of our heritage.
If Trump, or Pence, are on the White House in 2021 LGBT rights will be on the way out and our path to invisibility, or just being harassed and brutalized will be ensured. The propaganda of years past will be revived. How many years it takes to work its dreadful wonders will depend upon our social media overlords.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
OK, but IMO many would find it worth looking at JA’s 2006 writings, which are goofy-geeky but short and pretty simple, and then mapping them to early wikileaks, before it became so US-focused. In 2010 there was a promise of Russia leaks, unfullfilled. (Personally, I generally object to uncurated leaks.)
The Wikileaks Manifesto (Julian Assange, 2006)
“State and Terrorist Conspiracies” and “Conspiracy as Governance” (November 10, 2006, December 3, 2006)
and an explainer:
Julian Assange and the Computer Conspiracy; “To destroy this invisible government” (by zunguzungu, 2010)
Citizen Alan
@Adam L Silverman: And yet somehow, I cannot bring myself to care.
Adam L Silverman
@Citizen Alan: That is fine. You do not have to care.