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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2020 / Another Iowa Caucus Open Thread: Return of the Dreaded NYT Needle(s)

Another Iowa Caucus Open Thread: Return of the Dreaded NYT Needle(s)

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BECAUSE I CAN. Look, this particular brand of social-media response to the ongoing political fustercluck is absolutely catnip for my particular brand of ADD/OCD Short Attention Span Theatre.

Also, as far as I’m concerned, any oxygen stolen from tonight’s TV turn by the Squatter-in-Chief is unequivocally good. I read that AoC has officially bowed out from attending, which is also good, because (NYC represent!) she probably wouldn’t have been able to resist popping off at the bs firehose on camera. It’s better to have the media thumbsuckers focused on the lies from the podium rather than giving them an excuse to clutch their pearls over a You Lie! moment. Even (especially) if President Obama was *not* lying, back in the day, while the current Disgrace will be.


Also, while Buttigieg was not my first (or second) choice, I remember what it felt like when Geraldine Ferraro was announced as the Democratic VP choice. She wouldn’t have been my first or forty-fifth choice back then, but the giddy realization that any woman could get that far, ‘so soon’, was *real*. So, I’m not gonna stomp on people who feel the same way now…

Reader Interactions

137Comments

  2. 2.

    cokane

    Silver making a very important point about turnout. Let’s see what happens in New Hampshire, which is a true battleground state, and its primary is an election.

  3. 3.

    Anne Laurie

    In my defense: I put up this post an hour ago, got stomped by Cole immediately, pulled it back for the Blogmaster-approved ‘after 40 minutes it’s not bigfooting’... and the sumbitch stomped me AGAIN.

    Also, seriously, I don’t want to watch the Squatter-in-Chief. He strokes out or get assassinated by Pence, y’all will let me know. Otherwise, I’ll catch up through the filter of online reports later.

  5. 5.

    Caphilldcne

    I’m gay. I guess I think it’s ok that Pete did well but I don’t understand it. I believe he is woefully under-qualified to be president and it bothers me that he would even consider running. I guess it won’t matter much. DC’s primary isn’t until June 2nd.

  6. 6.

    Kent

    @cokane:Silver making a very important point about turnout. Let’s see what happens in New Hampshire, which is a true battleground state, and its primary is an election.

    Josh Marshall makes the rebuttal argument here today:  https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/was-turnout-a-problem-in-iowa

    As I noted below, President Trump’s rising poll numbers have my attention. They are worrisome. But there’s been another critique floating around since last night and that is that it’s a bad sign for Democrats that turnout at the Iowa caucuses was just on par with 2016 rather than the high numbers from 2008. (The Post’s Karen Tumulty makes the argument here.) I don’t have to remind you 2008 turned out better than 2016. But I’m pretty confident that this conventional wisdom is wrong. Normal turnout in Iowa is just fine in terms of what it might say about November. Here’s why.

    Turn out is driven by people’s investment in the outcome of that election. But let’s focus on what that mean – that election, in this case the primary election. One thing I noticed in all the caucus coverage last night was that universally people were saying they were happy to support any of the candidates in November.

    We’ve all seen that Democrats consistently and overwhelmingly say their first priority is a candidate who can beat President Trump. Certainly Sanders especially but also Warren have very enthusiastic supporters. But my sense at least is that Democrats are mainly champing at the bit to get a chance at voting out President Trump. You see this in poll after poll – not just the toplines but the internal measures of Democratic enthusiasm and focus.

    I feel confident about this because I expected there to be normal turnout for just this reason. It didn’t make sense to me that commentators expected 2008 type results rather than 2016 type results. For most Democrats the first, second and probably third priority is ending President Trump’s presidency. By that measure, this level of turnout strikes me as unsurprising and not worrisome.

  7. 7.

    zhena gogolia

    @Kent:

    That’s a good analysis. It certainly reflects my feelings. I just want that evil creep and all his minions out of power.

  8. 8.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    if Buttigieg prevails on final alignment/SDEs, he’ll owe his margin to the 2nd choice support of Biden/Klobuchar groups that failed to hit 15%.

    HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAH

    Talk about blowback. Wilmer fought to retain the caucus system and it blew up in his face.

  9. 9.

    Mr. Longform

    Give us pro-Pete South Benders a little break today.  I know you all hate the guy, but really, he’s competent and smart and his heart’s in the right place – he’s a real Democrat.

  12. 12.

    James E Powell

    @cokane:

    Silver making a very important point about turnout. Let’s see what happens in New Hampshire, which is a true battleground state, and its primary is an election.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t Iowa been trending older and whiter? It’s like Ohio. There aren’t as many Democrats as in the old days. And older white people who used to split the ballots are now solid Republicans.

  19. 19.

    Marcopolo

    Repost of what I wrote about IA caucus turnout a few threads down:

    The biggest thing I am taking away from IA is the lack of turnout. It is really troubling. We had a decent sized field, candidates that represented the entire spectrum of the D electorate, huge investment by at least 5 campaigns to get folks to the polls; we have a fucking disaster of an R president with most polls showing public interest in the 2020 election is sky high and we only equalled the turnout from 2016. That is a problem.

    Folks on the blog can continue to say shit about the candidates they don’t like, it is a free country and I realize venting makes a person feel better but one of these folks is going to be our nominee and unless some of us start setting an example and talk up all the positive reasons why folks should be supporting our candidates we are going to look up, find out the election is a week away and we have poisoned some percentage of people who should be voting D against the eventual nominee.

    In an earlier thread there was a lot of discussion about EW & her lack of support among AA voters, who we all agree are a backbone of our voting bloc. Honestly, inspiring the support of the AA voting base isn’t just EW’s problem. Our AA presidential nominees (Cory & Kamala) didn’t appear to inspire support among the community. According to polling, Biden has the most support atm but then I think back to 2016 and HRC and her massive advantage with AA voters in the primary that did not seem to translate into votes in November. I’m pretty sure there are any number of bad actors out there trying to make sure that happens again this time around (basically poisoning low info minority voters against voting D).

    So when you want to take a swing at EW or Sanders or Buttigieg or Biden or whomever, keep in mind that those swings have lingering effects. I would so much rather y’all stay positive, talk about what about these candidates really gets you excited–or hell, what about the D agenda gets you really excited. We need to figure out the best arguments for getting our voters out to the polls in November. We need to start working on getting these folks excited now. It seems pretty fucking insurmountable to me atm–maybe that is because it is Feb–but we do have time. Maybe give it a thought or two?

    Just my two cents. And I realize almost all the campaigns have their arsehole supporters saying really stupid shit (but also bots & bad actors instigating and amplifying all of the crap too) about other candidates (and some campaigns seem to attract more of these effing fuckwads than others) but how about we try to do better?

  22. 22.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: they did not, but Fred Hubbell came damn close, about 40K votes

    Kim Reynolds*
    Republican 667,275 50.3%
    Fred Hubbell
    Democrat 630,986 47.5

  25. 25.

    Kent

    @Mr. Longform:Give us pro-Pete South Benders a little break today.  I know you all hate the guy, but really, he’s competent and smart and his heart’s in the right place – he’s a real Democrat.

    I don’t hate Pete. I’d campaign for him if he wins the nomination.  He just isn’t my first choice and I don’t see him as the best candidate to go head to head with Trump.  The two biggest jobs of the next president will be (1) traveling the world to restore our international standing and tattered alliances, and (2) rebuilding the wreckage of the Federal bureaucracy.  I’m not sure if he has the gravitas for the first task and the sternness and depth of experience with the Federal government for the second

    But I do have him above Bernie in my rankings and maybe tied with Biden.  Either of the two women are my first choices.

  26. 26.

    Baud

    @Marcopolo: I’m not going to worry about turnout for one contest, especially a caucus.  If it’s a consistent tread as the primaries move forward, then it’s an issue worth discussing.

  28. 28.

    Baud

    @Hildebrand: It wasn’t low.  It was about the same as 2016.  It was way off the high of 2008, which had Obama and occurred in early January on a Thursday.

  29. 29.

    Marcopolo

    @Kent:I’ve been a TPM member from the start. I generally agree with JMM but I think this is really bad reasoning. I guess we will find out next week in NH with a “normal” primary election, but the sky high interest in the 2020 election should translate into chomping at the bit for voting in both the primary and the general. Every member of my circle of friends is looking forward to voting for a candidate here in MO in mid-March–and they are also will crawl over broken glass to vote for whomever the nominee is in November.

  31. 31.

    Kent

    @Marcopolo:@Kent:I’ve been a TPM member from the start. I generally agree with JMM but I think this is really bad reasoning. I guess we will find out next week in NH with a “normal” primary election, but the sky high interest in the 2020 election should translate into chomping at the bit for voting in both the primary and the general. Every member of my circle of friends is looking forward to voting for a candidate here in MO in mid-March–and they are also will crawl over broken glass to vote for whomever the nominee is in November.

    I’m of mixed mind.  I’m ready to crawl miles over broken glass too, but at the same time I’m strangely ambivalent about the current top 5 lineup.  I think Warren or Klobuchar are my two top choices but things feel like they are sliding in another direction and it makes me pessimistic.  Especially if we wind up down the road with a Sanders vs Biden final stretch.

    So I agree with Josh.  My energy to go out for a specific candidate in the primary is way lower than to beat Trump.  There is just no one there that completely inspires me like Obama in 2008.  I thought it was going to be Harris so what do I know.

  32. 32.

    Kent

    Wow….Rush really looks OLD and bad.  They just now discovered he was dying?   He looks horrible.

  33. 33.

    Dan B

    Thanks for including the heartfelt joy that many LGBT people, especially young gay men, feel about an openly gay man getting respectable support in Iowa.  Most of us who can still fog a mirror with our breath are very fearful of the possibility that Trump could win in November.  Plenty of us are conscious of the utter hatred to mild disgust of LGBT people that exists in the GOP and want a candidate to defeat Trump.  Pete is not likely to fare as well in South Carolina but for now putting Sanders in second is a little victory because he seems, on examination of his socialism, purity politics, and angry old guy routine, to be even less likely to prevail over Trump.  I would be dancing in the streets if the outcome had been Warren, Biden, Pete, Amy, Sanders.

    We’ve got four months to the convention.  Warren seems to be pivoting to “Dream Big” and a few other slogans that may inspire more energy than “I” … “Plan”.  Tonight does remind me of Geraldine Ferraro and Jesse Jackson’s campaigns.  Progress can be made.  That’s satisfying and we can enjoy this taste of it.  It’s not perfect but it’s a logarithmic leap superior to what the GOP has to offer.

    Imagine what an openly gay male GOP candidate would look like: Roy Cohn, and he’d have to be hidden in a Jesus suit until after innauguration.

  34. 34.

    Caphilldcne

     

    @Mr. Longform: I’m not sure if my comment above caused consternation. I’m just mystified by Pete. If he ends up being the nominee I’ll work hard for him.

  35. 35.

    different-church-lady

    Here’s what’s annoying me: nobody wins the Iowa caucuses. They win delegates at the Iowa caucuses. The press keeps treating this like winner take all.

  37. 37.

    Kent

    @Dan B:Imagine what an openly gay male GOP candidate would look like: Roy Cohn, and he’d have to be hidden in a Jesus suit until after innauguration.

    Probably just like one of the closeted gay southern ones.

  40. 40.

    zhena gogolia

    @Caphilldcne:

    Harris was my candidate and now I’m not passionate about any of them (although Biden has won my sympathy after the disgusting slander he was subjected to in the Senate the last few days). But Pete is the anti-Trump: young, handsome, well-educated, highly intelligent, happily married, a veteran, and seemingly rather kind. That’s how I see his appeal. Inexperienced, yes, but — wow, all that government experience Trump had. Trump’s experience before (and after) election was at being a mob boss.

  42. 42.

    Marcopolo

    @Baud:I will certainly be happy to be wrong–and it wouldn’t be the first time. I just have this nagging worry that the information space folks live in now is fundamentally different than it was 20 years ago. On the one hand we have an abomination like Trump who is constantly doing a new awful thing so that over a course of a week it is hard just to remember on Friday that thing he did on Monday and the press aids in this by constantly pointing out the most immediate shiny Trump turd. On the other hand, we have what are I consider middling campaign/candidate flair ups that might normally fade out after a bit but are constantly regurgitated/relitigated though what seem to me to be conscious actions by folks/actors using social media. Call me chicken little but I find it worrisome.

  44. 44.

    jl

    @Kent: Marshall’s argument seems reasonable to me. If I were in Iowa, I probably would have gone to the caucus, because I support Warren, and since she’s slipped in the polls and I’d want to show my support.

    But if I had a chance to make somebody like Bloomberg or old Hick, or Moulton look like a loser, somebody I really really didn’t want in the race, 100 percent chance I’d go.

  45. 45.

    Dan B

    @Marcopolo: Thanks a thousand times!  We’re all a lot more than tense about the massive capture of much of the enfircement arm of the government and most of the various medias.  Liberals strengths tend towards excellent critique and analysis.  The GOP does marketing and cheerleading.  We can do those as well without losing our souls.  There are aspects of Warren, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, and even Bernie (economic justice does matter) and the rest.  It would be hood to remind ourselves about the best of each of these and retain a healthy skepticism of the criticisms.

  47. 47.

    Mnemosyne

    @Mr. Longform:

    I don’t hate him. I think he’s a nice young man who doesn’t have quite enough experience to be president. He has plenty of time to gain more experience and run again in the future.

  48. 48.

    tam1MI

    Silver making a very important point about turnout.

    Iowa has kicked the pinions out from under one of Sanders big “electability” arguments – that he was the guy to bring new, “non-voters” to the polls.  In Iowa they didn’t show up.  If that’s true, Sanders is in deep doo-doo – the only way to grow his base is to reach out to Hillary voters, and he has steadfastly refused to do that.

  49. 49.

    Caphilldcne

    @zhena gogolia: you’re probably right. I have to say youth is a good look for the Dems. Unfortunately there hasn’t necessarily been a lot of movement to find fresh political talent and a lot of Members of Congress really hang onto those jobs.

  50. 50.

    Geminid

    I don’t want to bash any candidate here. My friends hear me bashing the junior senator from Vermont a lot, but doing that on Balloon Juice is bringing coals to Newcastle. But I will express skepticism about Pete Buttegieg. There are several good reasons to support him, but I have thought since last summer that his main appeal is his intellect and his fluent, cogent answers to policy questions. Don’t get me wrong. These are admirable abilities. But if they necessarily translated into electoral prowess, Adlai Stevenson would have won in ’52 and ’56, and Al Gore would have won handily in 2000. So I wish him well, but will vote for someone else on the ballot in Va. on Super Tuesday.

  51. 51.

    Kent

    @jl: I’ve honestly convinced myself that either of the two women are the best candidates to beat Trump.  I don’t see this argument made anywhere.  Trump has the alpha male dominant dog thing down pat.  He cut through the GOP primary candidates like butter and has the entire white male GOP Senate and staff completely cowed like whipped dogs.  That’s what he does.

    On the other hand he seems truly terrified and ill at ease with strong women.  Just about his first act of office was firing Janet Yellen who shared his monetary philosophy (such as it is) and put in place a more tight money white guy.  He put two white guys on the supreme court and no women.   His only female cabinet members are minor nepotism hires that are nowhere close to the seat of power (Chao and DeVoss).  He is completely out of sorts every time he has to deal with Pelosi.  And for fuck’s sake, Hillary beat him and he know it.  He just seems deeply terrified of strong women.

    I just think either Warren or Klobuchar provide a much better contrast to the puddle of bile that is Trump than any of the male candidates

    And, the constant boot licking of Putin and other dictators around the world must also be somehow linked to the same pathology.  It all has to be connected. I’m just terrified to dive too deeply into the Trump brain to figure it all out.

  52. 52.

    Aleta

    @zhena gogolia:

    The president has been impeached. That’s a pretty big lesson.

    And there has been criticism by both Republican and Democratic senators of his call. I believe that he will be much more cautious in the future.

    –Susan Diabolus Collins

  54. 54.

    Dan B

    @zhena gogolia: Cohn said he was not homosexual that he liked to have sex with men.  And he denied having AIDS.  He was an example of internalized self hatred.  I came out in that time and it was much too common.  Most gay men said they had a “compulsion they could not resust” and they would not kiss because it would make them a fag.  The change from those days to now is mind boggling.  Still the suicide and substance abuse rates are very high.  Homelessness among gay youth is huge, possibly as much as 40% of homeless youth are LGBT.  The shadow of Roy Cohn’s is long.  I’ve realized recently that I’ve suffered from PTSD from my childhood in the 50’s and 60’s.  It has blindsided me at times.

  56. 56.

    the Conster

    @Mr. Longform:

    I don’t hate him.  I just think a presidential candidate should be able to win their own state.  cc:  Al Gore

    I’m thrilled he beat the old fraud.  That’s quite the *revolution*.

  57. 57.

    randy khan

    The moderate vote is around 55% and the leftish vote is around 43% – roughly an 11-1/2% gap.  The Biden/Klobuchar voters moving to Buttigieg as a second choice don’t surprise me.

    Now, that’s Iowa, not any other state, but it’s interesting nevertheless.

  59. 59.

    clay

    @Adam L Silverman: I was thinking of the commenters more than the front pagers. They can get nasty.

     

    Although, now that I think of it, Farley is the front pager who is least likely to bash various Democratic candidates. Maybe because of the conflict of interest that you mention.

  60. 60.

    Anne Laurie

    @Mr. Longform: Give us pro-Pete South Benders a little break today. I know you all hate the guy, but really, he’s competent and smart and his heart’s in the right place – he’s a real Democrat.

    I don’t hate Buttigieg, but I’ll say this:  The way (and his supporters) have reacted over the last 24 hours does make me more enthusiastic about voting for him in November, if he’s the nominee!

    Yes, he’s a Democrat.  Even better — he’s a grownup!

  61. 61.

    Old Dan and Little Ann

    Jesus fucking Christ.  It’s like the Jerry Springer show. Surprising a wife by having her deployed husband make an appearance. USA USA chanting.  Oi!

  62. 62.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Geminid: I raised an eyebrow when a guy with two years in the Senate and a few terms in the state legislature announced he was running for president, based pretty much on a speech that didn’t satisfy my then-angrier (more fire-baggy, for those old enough to remember that) self. Going from the 9,000 vote mayor to run for President in an election this important, you gotta bring me more than I see in a young comer who would make a fine House candidate, and be a long shot for statewide office even in a much more friendly state than Indiana.

    and then we got into “Those clowns in Washington! They need some good heartland common sense from a guy who can see corn fields from his front porch”

  63. 63.

    Martin

    Interesting look into the fuel mileage battle between California and Trump.

    The shock of a federal investigation had a chilling effect on the ongoing talks between the four auto makers and California, as well as the state’s efforts to recruit others.

    BMW, Volkswagen and Honda all said they planned to adhere to the California deal regardless of other companies joining, but declined to comment further.

    White House officials began calling car companies not aligned with California to muster support for the administration’s efforts to remove the state’s waiver, according to people at those companies and administration officials.

    California has other cards to play here. We’re not about to give up this easily after 40 years at this, and we sure as fuck aren’t going to lose on an issue this big to this asshole.

  64. 64.

    Kent

    @zhena gogolia: There was an array of wonderful young talent showcased during the impeachment hearings and trial.

    Like I said on another thread.  I really love me some Val Demings.  I think she would be a great VP candidate for any of the principals still left.

  68. 68.

    Caphilldcne

    @zhena gogolia: yes. It’s starting to happen. I think some of it is that there was a bit of a youth and diversity movement in 2018. I just think there’s a mid-level group late 40s – early 60s that haven’t really caught on. Maybe it’s just the baby bust created a trough. I’ve been to a hell of a lot of democratic receptions with 70 year old members of Congress and now seeing lots of younger members. Of course the Republican taking a lot of state houses getting narrowed the pool although things seem to be somewhat improving there too.

  70. 70.

    Anne Laurie

    @Marcopolo: The biggest thing I am taking away from IA is the lack of turnout. It is really troubling. We had a decent sized field, candidates that represented the entire spectrum of the D electorate, huge investment by at least 5 campaigns to get folks to the polls; we have a fucking disaster of an R president with most polls showing public interest in the 2020 election is sky high and we only equalled the turnout from 2016. That is a problem.

    Counter-argument I’m seeing, among people who do this for a living:  We Democrats aren’t as fired up for the primaries as we will be for the general.  The crucial point for a lot of people is not which Dem we’ll be supporting, but that the Dem who’s eventually chosen gets all our support.

    (Which, props to my personal favorite — Warren has been careful to keep pointing out, as Cole said earlier, that the real enemy is the Squatter-in-Chief.)

  71. 71.

    Mnemosyne

    @Dan B:

    My husband has gotten me hooked on the Canadian TV show “Schitt’s Creek,” starring Eugene Levy and Catherine O’Hara. Short version is, it’s about a family of 1%ers who end up living in a small town after they lose everything. What makes it very Canadian is that the characters start off as bad people, but they slowly learn and grow throughout the seasons.

    One of the main characters is gay/pansexual and played by co-creator Daniel Levy (yes, Eugene Levy’s son — it’s very much a family affair). I don’t want to ruin any plot points, but Levy says that he deliberately decided that there would be no homophobia in the world he created, which lets the show be very sweet and accepting but also really funny. I think you may like it.

  73. 73.

    Dan B

    @Kent:  Yes, Ferraro was VP candidate but even that was considered very radical.  And people couldn’t make the connection between Golda Meir or Indira Gandhi, or later on Maggie Thatcher.  All were flawed leaders in some, or many, ways but they didn’t seem to affect the perceptions of Americans.

  74. 74.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Miss Bianca: He was in 2016. I don’t know if he is this year. He’s not the formal one who works for Senator Sanders. That’s Matt Duss, who, as far as I can tell, never actually held a nat-sec job before he was hired by Sanders. Farley was part of a group of foreign policy advisors that were consulted by Sanders in 2016. I remember Farley doing a post about it. I haven’t been over to LGM in a while, largely because I’m so busy here, so I don’t know if he did a similar post this year.

  75. 75.

    Suzanne

    @Kent:

    I’ve honestly convinced myself that either of the two women are the best candidates to beat Trump.

    I think I agree with you.
    There’s definitely a subset of people who don’t hate Trump’s politics (whatever they are) but they don’t like his demeanor and all the drama. I think a smart, capable, experienced woman who doesn’t engage in dramatics is a powerful foil.

    I feel like I have aged more in the last three years than I had in the previous thirty.

  76. 76.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Tom Nichols
    @RadioFreeTom
    I wish Rush Limbaugh only the best in his struggle with cancer, but putting a medal of freedom on a talk show host in the middle of the SOTU was just weird. This whole speech is like a reality TV episode. Which I guess isn’t surprising.

    He actually announced it during the speech? I thought people were just talking about the rumors from earlier today. My fuckign god.

  78. 78.

    Dan B

    @Geminid: Yep.  Pete’s intellect is a two edged sword.  People like someone smarter than them to lead but not too smart.  I also think Pete’s appeal is to suburban women who like how polite he is.

  80. 80.

    Miss Bianca

    @Adam L Silverman: I haven’t been over there a lot lately either, and it used to be the blog I turned to right after this one. I got turned off by the tone of some of the front-pagers there (not Farley, I hasten to add) and just stopped reading.

    Same thing happened with me with Crooked Timber back during the ’16 election, as I recall – I used to really admire a lot of their posts, but thought a lot of the white male lefty academics really showed their misogynistic asses when it came to HRC. Shame about that.

  81. 81.

    Anne Laurie

    @Geminid: So I wish him well, but will vote for someone else on the ballot in Va. on Super Tuesday.

    So will I, obvs.  But if Buttigieg is the eventual nominee, and he offers Warren the VP slot, I won’t be insulted.   I don’t think he would, necessarily, but I could happily vote for that ticket.

    I could also vote happily for a Pete/Biden, Pete/Klobuchar, heck Pete/KHarris or Pete/O’Rourke ticket!  And it’s not like we have to worry about the ‘independent, unless I wanna freeride yer party’ candidate.  That dude don’t take second ticket to nobody, and in the case of Mayor Pete, even the suggestion would cause his more devoted stans to turn on him like rabid ferrets.

  82. 82.

    Jinchi

    @different-church-lady: The press keeps treating this like winner take all.

    Exactly, for all the freakout in the press, we pretty much knew the result from the start because people could actually see how the vote was coming down. A three-way tie in a race where the delegates are split roughly proportionally. NYT’s current guess is  13-13-10 (Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren) with 4 for Biden and 1 for Klobuchar. The final result will probably vary by plus or minus a few delegates for a couple of the candidates, but “who won” is nothing more than bragging rights, especially when no candidate really dominated.

    Biden underperforming is really the only takeaway.

  83. 83.

    Another Scott

    BlueVirginia.us:

    For anyone who denies that white privilege is a real thing, I present to you…the following video of this afternoon’s debate, in the Virginia State Senate, over Sen. Mamie Locke (D)’s bill (SB65) to repeal Virginia’s unnecessary, discriminatory voter photo ID requirements.

    As you can see from the video, Republican Senators Mark Obenshain, Jen Kiggans and Bill Stanley all, in their own (not) charming ways, denied and/or minimized the impact/difficulty of mandatory photo ID on the ability of minorities, poor people, elderly people, etc. to vote. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Republican Senators Obenshain, Kiggans and Stanley also wildly overstated the degree of in-person voter fraud. Pathetic.

    As both Senators Barbara Favola (D) and Mamie Locke (D) correctly responded, the rates of such fraud are tiny – according to the Brennan Center for Justice, “between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent” (note: both Favola and Locke overstated those infinitesimal numbers by a factor of 1,000). And perhaps most revealingly, check out how angry Sen. Obenshain gets, as Sen. Locke delves into the real reasons behind Republicans passing photo ID laws in the first place. Not only won’t Obenshain admit the discriminatory motivations behind these laws, but he’s deeply, deeply in denial about his own role in doing so – and offended that anyone would dare question is totally pure motives! LOL

    With that, here are some strong arguments – by Senators Scott Surovell, Barbara Favola, Adam Ebbin, Dave Marsden and Mamie Locke – for passing this bill, as well as the video of the debate and vote. Nice job by the Democrats in the Senate, particularly bill patron Mamie Locke, and shame on the (white) Republicans, who continue to be willfully oblivious and ignorant of the discriminatory roots of policies like photo ID laws.

    * Sen. Surovell argued that it’s “nonsensical” to believe that people are going to fake somebody’s ID to vote. Sen. Surovell added that photo ID laws make it harder for people whose driver’s licenses are suspended; for the elderly – who often don’t drive or have photo IDs – and even for nuns, who also don’t drive or have photo IDs, to vote.

    * Sen. Marsden noted that Gov. McDonnell spent $3.5 million to send out voter ID cards to everyone, then Republicans turned around and required photo ID anyway, which is “curious.”

    * Sen. Saslaw said there was no evidence of voter fraud and that we don’t need photo ID.

    * Sen. Favola made the great point that “we don’t know how many people actually never showed up at the polls because of this requirement for photo ID.” Sen. Favola also noted that the U.S. has the lowest rate of voting compared to any other industrialized democracy, and that we need to pass policies to *encourage* more voting, not to make it more difficult.

    * Sen. Ebbin said, responding to Sen. Kiggan’s cluelessness: “I don’t know what it’s like to be African-American…not having a birth certificate…further, I don’t know what it’s like to live in a nursing home…so while we may have photo IDs that are used on a daily basis, there are plenty of people who don’t, and I don’t want to make it hard to vote, so with that, I hope that we do pass the bill.”

    * Sen. Locke said: “I *do* know what it’s like to be an African-American, and I certainly know what it’s like to be under voting laws that repress the vote. When I registered to vote, I had to register under dual registration, which was designed to repress my vote as an African-American. And I know why this bill was passed…in 2012…Shelby vs. Holder was going before the Supreme Court, so it went into effect *immediately* following the Supreme Court’s ruling in Shelby vs. Holder…which gutted the Voting Rights Act…states that were under the Voting Rights Act did not have to go to the Justice Dept. any longer to have their voting laws approved by the Justice Dept. So what immediately goes into effect? Photo identification laws passed by Virginia for non-existent or limited fraud…Any fraud is bad, yes, but we’re going to pass a repressive photo identification law? But we know what it is was for, and we know why…Since 2007, there have been 17 convictions of voter fraud in Virginia…What I would like to see is more people voting in Virginia…Why don’t we want more rather than putting in front of people obstacles to voting, like this law.” (that really set off Obenshain, who frothed at the mouth, basically, about what Sen. Locke had “accused” him of – sad, huh?)

    […]

    The bill passed the Virginia Senate 21:19.

    Good, good.

    Eyes on the prizes.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  84. 84.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Miss Bianca: They’re all good folks for the most part. But we and they tend to cover a lot of the same stuff and if I’m spending my time over here doing what I agreed to do (why, again did I do that?), I don’t have the time to be there.

  85. 85.

    Mike J

    @Mnemosyne:   I think he’s a nice young man who doesn’t have quite enough experience to be president. He has plenty of time to gain more experience and run again in the future.

    A child born this year will be able to vote for him when he’s younger than Biden, Bernie, Warren, or Klobuchar.

  89. 89.

    Dan B

    @the Conster:  I’ll chip in a few bucks to start your campaign in North Alabama (Indiana) or West Bama (Texas), or East Bama (Florida). We’ve got Pete, Beto, and Gillum who are talented and great at retail politics but even with hundreds if billions from Bloomberg are nit likely to win bigger i  their states, maybe Gillum but not likely Gov or Senate, partly because corrupt politics.  How do we advance talent in red swamps?

  90. 90.

    Jinchi

    @Anne Laurie: But if Buttigieg is the eventual nominee, and he offers Warren the VP slot, I won’t be insulted.

    That wouldn’t be my preferred pick for Buttigieg. I like Warren in the Senate if she can’t win the presidency. But it would have echos of the young, unseasoned Obama reaching out for an older, established Biden to lend credibility to his candidacy. So maybe it would be a smart move.

  97. 97.

    Suzanne

    During. The. Speech.

    Nothing means shit anymore in this country.

    I just ate a salad with my hands.

  100. 100.

    Dan B

    @Mnemosyne: I’m not a mind reader but it would not surprise me that Pete looked at his prospects in Indiana and decided that a respectable showing on the national stage was a better bet fir future prospects than certain defeat at Rep., Senate, or Gov in Indiana.  Indiana had one of the largest, if not the largest, Klans in the country.  Ohio is purple by comparison.  Also running a national campaign is good way to learn, fast.

  104. 104.

    Kent

    @Martin: Any way to get around the WSJ paywall?   I’m not going to pay for a subscription just to read the occasional forwarded link

  105. 105.

    James E Powell

    @Miss Bianca:

    I haven’t been over there a lot lately either, and it used to be the blog I turned to right after this one. I got turned off by the tone of some of the front-pagers there (not Farley, I hasten to add) and just stopped reading.

    Agreed. And the comments are increasingly like DailyKos.

  108. 108.

    Kent

    @Dan B:@Mnemosyne: I’m not a mind reader but it would not surprise me that Pete looked at his prospects in Indiana and decided that a respectable showing on the national stage was a better bet fir future prospects than certain defeat at Rep., Senate, or Gov in Indiana.  Indiana had one of the largest, if not the largest, Klans in the country.  Ohio is purple by comparison.  Also running a national campaign is good way to learn, fast.

    I think it lines him up nicely for a technocrat type job in the next administration.  I’d make him Sec of Commerce which is Small Business Administration, Census, Patent Office, a National Institute of Standards and Technology, and NOAA.  All technocratic jobs he would be good at.  Especially NOAA which is the lead agency on climate change.

    Or if we want to fuck with the world, Make him and his husband ambassadors to the Vatican…heh.

  112. 112.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: My meat and poultry and fish consumption to keep my protein levels set for my workout requirements would cause AOC to sneeze a new green new deal.

  113. 113.

    Anne Laurie

    @Jinchi: Bingo.  I’d like to keep Warren in the Senate too — and not just for selfish reasons — but if the combo reminds low-info voters that the whole Obama/Biden think worked out pretty well…

    Heck, we’d probably end up with Joe Kennedy III replacing Warren & working in tandem with Ed Markey (my guy), so win-win for us Massholes!

  116. 116.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Martin: At some point the administration is going to establish maximum fuel mileage standards, and try to ban electric cars outright. Maybe ban catalytic converters and mandate coal-rollin’ stacks on all diesel pickups.

  117. 117.

    Kent

    @Anne Laurie: The last time the Senate actually put together a complex large-scale piece of legislation was the Affordable Care Act in 2010.  There just isn’t much actual work being done in the Senate anymore except confirmations (and investigations if the opposite party is in the white house).  The days of workhorse Senators is basically over unless we get back to 60 or toss out the filibuster.  So I’m basically of the mind that any competent blue vote is more or less fine.  I like Warren but I think she is basically wasted in the Senate compared to actually getting stuff done in the executive branch.

  118. 118.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    shauna @ goldengateblond
    holy shit if Barack had let Michelle bestow a Presidential Medal of Freedom Republicans would’ve burned the Capitol to the ground and salted the ashes #SOTU

  119. 119.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    This Week @ThisWeekABC
    Democracy for America CEO Yvette Simpson: “You honor a Tuskagee Airman and then you honor Rush Limbaugh—that juxtaposition isn’t lost on people…I think African Americans know better.”

  120. 120.

    tallred

    @Marcopolo:

    There is a difference between voting for a candidate and getting badgered and shouted down by a Berniebot at a caucus. As long ago as 2016 feels, it wasn’t so long ago that anybody would forget the way the Sandernistas treat folks who aren’t like them.

    Let’s look at the turnout in a primary.

  121. 121.

    Original Lee

    Original Spouse hates Medicare for All and thinks it’s stupid for Democrats to go all in on something that so many regular folks are opposed to. After the SOTU, he turned to me and said, “Trump just kicked off his re-election campaign and if the Democrats keep pushing for Medicare for All, I swear to God I’ll vote for Trump. The Democrats will bankrupt the country with that shit. They need to push the Dutch model.”

  122. 122.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Jon Favreau @ jonfavs
    Seems to me like Pelosi took a page out of Trump’s playbook and stole the spotlight away. No one’s talking about the speech now.

    Anyway, he’s gonna be hard to beat. Let’s get our shit together and focus.

  124. 124.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Original Lee:

    Original Spouse hates Medicare for All and thinks it’s stupid for Democrats to go all in on something that so many regular folks are opposed to.

    I’ll go that far with your spouse, no farther

  126. 126.

    sdhays

    @Original Lee: Because Dump and the Republicans have such a great track record on not “bankrupting the country”.

    I swear, Republicans could literally bankrupt the country, and people would still be criticizing Democrats for whatever they want to do.

  127. 127.

    Redshift

    @sdhays: Well, you know, everyone expects Republicans to bankrupt the country, so it’s not really news; barely worth mentioning. But Democrats doing it would be a Big Deal!

     

    Which would be a lot funnier if that wasn’t the attitude of must of the news media toward Republican racism, misogyny, unethical behavior…

  128. 128.

    Original Lee

    @sdhays: I think he was comparing the base buttons Trimp was pushing in the SOTU with all of the enthusiastic supporters of getting rid of private insurance and played his strongest card. He voted for Obama twice and he voted for Hillary, but he’s soooooo frustrated with what he considers a bridge too far.

  130. 130.

    eddie blake

    @Original Lee:

    you point out to your original spouse that the united states has a sovereign currency and all of our debts are in dollars,  so the united states cannot ever go bankrupt?

    FFS.

  133. 133.

    Raven Onthill

    Meantime, this from historian Timothy Burke, a few days ago:

    None of the Democrats have faced the full force of the contemporary Republican attack machine and none of them have demonstrated their capacity to survive it. […] The Democrats are still preparing to run in an election, while their opponents are preparing to go to war. […] I don’t think any of them are ready for open falsehoods to be circulating straight from the President and elected members of the House and Senate, for the floodgates of hate unrestrained by shame or truth. The only way to be ready is to show that you understand that this is how politics is now, and to show the determination to win in order to save democracy itself. That urgency and intensity of purpose has yet to show itself on the Democratic side, for the most part. – https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2020/01/29/no-one-is-prepared/

    I have the sick feeling that he is right.

  134. 134.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Dan B: Your thoughts and Betty’s:

    Also, while Buttigieg was not my first (or second) choice, I remember what it felt like when Geraldine Ferraro was announced as the Democratic VP choice. She wouldn’t have been my first or forty-fifth choice back then, but the giddy realization that any woman could get that far, ‘so soon’, was *real*.

    captures my own mixed feelings. Pete is far from my preferred choice, but as queer trans woman, seeing an openly gay man leading in Iowa — where only last week a group Republican attempted to strip civil rights protections from trans people — is a bit of unexpected hope in these dark times.

  136. 136.

    Chris Johnson

    @Raven Onthill: Why would they be NOT going full force right now? I see them out there constantly, fucking with everybody as hard as they can in their Putinesque way. I know what’s behind a good half of the divisiveness and carefully selected splitting-points we see even in threads here.

    Is it even slightly in character for these evil fucks to be NOT attacking right now? Burke is crazy if he thinks the Republican/Russian attack machine isn’t running flat out already.

    Why would any sane person think they are waiting?

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