Buttigieg with a 74 percent chance to win the most SDEs, according to our estimates
The returns so far are fundamentally representative, but Sanders has some credible pockets of remaining strength and there's uncertainty around the satelliteshttps://t.co/qXwEnK4sYH— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 5, 2020
Note timestamp:
CNN airing this graphic right now, lol pic.twitter.com/rnFSZ0uIkM
— Populism Updates (@PopulismUpdates) February 4, 2020
BECAUSE I CAN. Look, this particular brand of social-media response to the ongoing political fustercluck is absolutely catnip for my particular brand of ADD/OCD Short Attention Span Theatre.
Also, as far as I’m concerned, any oxygen stolen from tonight’s TV turn by the Squatter-in-Chief is unequivocally good. I read that AoC has officially bowed out from attending, which is also good, because (NYC represent!) she probably wouldn’t have been able to resist popping off at the bs firehose on camera. It’s better to have the media thumbsuckers focused on the lies from the podium rather than giving them an excuse to clutch their pearls over a You Lie! moment. Even (especially) if President Obama was *not* lying, back in the day, while the current Disgrace will be.
PREVIOUSLY ON THE IOWA CAUCUSES
— Jake Anbinder (@JakeAnbinder) February 4, 2020
It’s 2AM and we have supporters for Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren at Polk HQ going through every precinct box to send the results we have to the state party so we can finally go to bed.
Our volunteers are literally tireless.#IACaucus pic.twitter.com/RKeWn839CE
— Sean Bagniewski (@bagniewski) February 4, 2020
on earth two DNC chair Pete Buttigieg is scrambling to figure out this caucus data situation
— Steadman™ (@AsteadWesley) February 4, 2020
Read: this was a predictable shitshow in execution but you probably shouldn't assume that the state represents some bellwether. It might! But look at the GOP side of winners in the last twenty years with big fields. Not an awesome batting average.
— The Mall Krampus (@cakotz) February 4, 2020
Maybe Vox should write a piece on it? https://t.co/quF1crDJvQ
— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) February 4, 2020
'Wake-up call': Iowa caucus disinformation serves as warning about 2020 election https://t.co/fAzy2Mv7Hn via @nbcnews
— Tucker Higgins (@tuckerhiggins) February 4, 2020
I feel like turnout being rather low in Iowa is a theme of underrated importance.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 4, 2020
Keep in mind that it takes 2,383 delegates to win and if you won every last vote in Iowa you'd get 41.
— Iowasca Tripper (@agraybee) February 4, 2020
California took a month to report election results and it was hailed for doing so. Iowa takes 24 hours and it's getting eviscerated.
— Caucus Error Reporter. (@CascadianSolo) February 4, 2020
Something that’s pretty clear: if Buttigieg prevails on final alignment/SDEs, he’ll owe his margin to the 2nd choice support of Biden/Klobuchar groups that failed to hit 15%.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 4, 2020
Also, while Buttigieg was not my first (or second) choice, I remember what it felt like when Geraldine Ferraro was announced as the Democratic VP choice. She wouldn’t have been my first or forty-fifth choice back then, but the giddy realization that any woman could get that far, ‘so soon’, was *real*. So, I’m not gonna stomp on people who feel the same way now…
I never dreamed this would happen. Not so soon. Not for us. Somewhere out there a kid is deciding to hold on a bit longer because of this. https://t.co/HQXCplns81
— Payton Alexander (@AlexanderPayton) February 4, 2020
I hope ?? left twitter sees this.
After months of saying Pete is another privileged man who isn’t “gay enough” I wonder what they think of the reality on the ground.
Pete has and will continue to face hatred and bigotry just for who he is. #IowaCaucas #PeteButtigieg https://t.co/vRkcS7quMF
— Fiber Optic (@accountable_gov) February 4, 2020
I remember being 15 years old and sitting on the edge of my bunk at that Christian camp sobbing—worried that I'd never be accepted. That I'd never succeed. I wish I could go back and tell my 15 year old self about this moment. https://t.co/nyWhzkIh5L
— Stefan Smith (@TheStefanSmith) February 4, 2020
Baud
Too many posts.
cokane
Silver making a very important point about turnout. Let’s see what happens in New Hampshire, which is a true battleground state, and its primary is an election.
Anne Laurie
In my defense: I put up this post an hour ago, got stomped by Cole immediately, pulled it back for the Blogmaster-approved ‘after 40 minutes it’s not bigfooting’... and the sumbitch stomped me AGAIN.
Also, seriously, I don’t want to watch the Squatter-in-Chief. He strokes out or get assassinated by Pence, y’all will let me know. Otherwise, I’ll catch up through the filter of online reports later.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Never!
Caphilldcne
I’m gay. I guess I think it’s ok that Pete did well but I don’t understand it. I believe he is woefully under-qualified to be president and it bothers me that he would even consider running. I guess it won’t matter much. DC’s primary isn’t until June 2nd.
Kent
Josh Marshall makes the rebuttal argument here today: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/was-turnout-a-problem-in-iowa
zhena gogolia
@Kent:
That’s a good analysis. It certainly reflects my feelings. I just want that evil creep and all his minions out of power.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAH
Talk about blowback. Wilmer fought to retain the caucus system and it blew up in his face.
Mr. Longform
Give us pro-Pete South Benders a little break today. I know you all hate the guy, but really, he’s competent and smart and his heart’s in the right place – he’s a real Democrat.
James E Powell
@Baud:
It’s quality work, just cut a few and it will be perfect.
zhena gogolia
@Mr. Longform:
I don’t hate him. My husband is jubilant and ready to vote for him right now.
We are in the ABS camp.
James E Powell
@cokane:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t Iowa been trending older and whiter? It’s like Ohio. There aren’t as many Democrats as in the old days. And older white people who used to split the ballots are now solid Republicans.
zhena gogolia
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mr. Longform:
good lord
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: In all fairness, there has been a lot of Pete bashing on this blog
edit: It got to the point that a number of people quit commenting.
cokane
@James E Powell: You’re right. It’s pretty red now, though it’s not a deep red state.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
@WaterGirl:
Pete’s not my guy, but if he shames Bernie in Iowa, I’ll give him a “attaboy” for a job well down.
Baud
@cokane: Three of their four House reps are now blue though. I can’t remember if they elected a Dem governor.
Marcopolo
Repost of what I wrote about IA caucus turnout a few threads down:
The biggest thing I am taking away from IA is the lack of turnout. It is really troubling. We had a decent sized field, candidates that represented the entire spectrum of the D electorate, huge investment by at least 5 campaigns to get folks to the polls; we have a fucking disaster of an R president with most polls showing public interest in the 2020 election is sky high and we only equalled the turnout from 2016. That is a problem.
Folks on the blog can continue to say shit about the candidates they don’t like, it is a free country and I realize venting makes a person feel better but one of these folks is going to be our nominee and unless some of us start setting an example and talk up all the positive reasons why folks should be supporting our candidates we are going to look up, find out the election is a week away and we have poisoned some percentage of people who should be voting D against the eventual nominee.
In an earlier thread there was a lot of discussion about EW & her lack of support among AA voters, who we all agree are a backbone of our voting bloc. Honestly, inspiring the support of the AA voting base isn’t just EW’s problem. Our AA presidential nominees (Cory & Kamala) didn’t appear to inspire support among the community. According to polling, Biden has the most support atm but then I think back to 2016 and HRC and her massive advantage with AA voters in the primary that did not seem to translate into votes in November. I’m pretty sure there are any number of bad actors out there trying to make sure that happens again this time around (basically poisoning low info minority voters against voting D).
So when you want to take a swing at EW or Sanders or Buttigieg or Biden or whomever, keep in mind that those swings have lingering effects. I would so much rather y’all stay positive, talk about what about these candidates really gets you excited–or hell, what about the D agenda gets you really excited. We need to figure out the best arguments for getting our voters out to the polls in November. We need to start working on getting these folks excited now. It seems pretty fucking insurmountable to me atm–maybe that is because it is Feb–but we do have time. Maybe give it a thought or two?
Just my two cents. And I realize almost all the campaigns have their arsehole supporters saying really stupid shit (but also bots & bad actors instigating and amplifying all of the crap too) about other candidates (and some campaigns seem to attract more of these effing fuckwads than others) but how about we try to do better?
Wag
@zhena gogolia:
Me too. ABT for president
Hildebrand
Pete is a much better choice than Bernie. By a quite a lot of miles.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: they did not, but Fred Hubbell came damn close, about 40K votes
Wag
@zhena gogolia:
I am falling in love with Ms Rubin. She has no fucks left to give, and it shows
clay
@WaterGirl: And this isn’t even the worst liberal blog for Pete-bashing. (Looking at you, LGM.)
Kent
I don’t hate Pete. I’d campaign for him if he wins the nomination. He just isn’t my first choice and I don’t see him as the best candidate to go head to head with Trump. The two biggest jobs of the next president will be (1) traveling the world to restore our international standing and tattered alliances, and (2) rebuilding the wreckage of the Federal bureaucracy. I’m not sure if he has the gravitas for the first task and the sternness and depth of experience with the Federal government for the second
But I do have him above Bernie in my rankings and maybe tied with Biden. Either of the two women are my first choices.
Baud
@Marcopolo: I’m not going to worry about turnout for one contest, especially a caucus. If it’s a consistent tread as the primaries move forward, then it’s an issue worth discussing.
Hildebrand
@Marcopolo: Caucuses are wildly unrepresentative. That this was low surprises me not.
Baud
@Hildebrand: It wasn’t low. It was about the same as 2016. It was way off the high of 2008, which had Obama and occurred in early January on a Thursday.
Marcopolo
@Kent:I’ve been a TPM member from the start. I generally agree with JMM but I think this is really bad reasoning. I guess we will find out next week in NH with a “normal” primary election, but the sky high interest in the 2020 election should translate into chomping at the bit for voting in both the primary and the general. Every member of my circle of friends is looking forward to voting for a candidate here in MO in mid-March–and they are also will crawl over broken glass to vote for whomever the nominee is in November.
Adam L Silverman
@clay: Farley is a foreign policy advisor to Sanders.
Kent
I’m of mixed mind. I’m ready to crawl miles over broken glass too, but at the same time I’m strangely ambivalent about the current top 5 lineup. I think Warren or Klobuchar are my two top choices but things feel like they are sliding in another direction and it makes me pessimistic. Especially if we wind up down the road with a Sanders vs Biden final stretch.
So I agree with Josh. My energy to go out for a specific candidate in the primary is way lower than to beat Trump. There is just no one there that completely inspires me like Obama in 2008. I thought it was going to be Harris so what do I know.
Kent
Wow….Rush really looks OLD and bad. They just now discovered he was dying? He looks horrible.
Dan B
Thanks for including the heartfelt joy that many LGBT people, especially young gay men, feel about an openly gay man getting respectable support in Iowa. Most of us who can still fog a mirror with our breath are very fearful of the possibility that Trump could win in November. Plenty of us are conscious of the utter hatred to mild disgust of LGBT people that exists in the GOP and want a candidate to defeat Trump. Pete is not likely to fare as well in South Carolina but for now putting Sanders in second is a little victory because he seems, on examination of his socialism, purity politics, and angry old guy routine, to be even less likely to prevail over Trump. I would be dancing in the streets if the outcome had been Warren, Biden, Pete, Amy, Sanders.
We’ve got four months to the convention. Warren seems to be pivoting to “Dream Big” and a few other slogans that may inspire more energy than “I” … “Plan”. Tonight does remind me of Geraldine Ferraro and Jesse Jackson’s campaigns. Progress can be made. That’s satisfying and we can enjoy this taste of it. It’s not perfect but it’s a logarithmic leap superior to what the GOP has to offer.
Imagine what an openly gay male GOP candidate would look like: Roy Cohn, and he’d have to be hidden in a Jesus suit until after innauguration.
Caphilldcne
@Mr. Longform: I’m not sure if my comment above caused consternation. I’m just mystified by Pete. If he ends up being the nominee I’ll work hard for him.
different-church-lady
Here’s what’s annoying me: nobody wins the Iowa caucuses. They win delegates at the Iowa caucuses. The press keeps treating this like winner take all.
zhena gogolia
@Dan B:
Even Cohn wasn’t openly gay, was he?
Kent
Probably just like one of the closeted gay southern ones.
different-church-lady
@Mr. Longform: We hounded out a homophobe who did hate the guy last night, so I’m pretty sure we don’t all hate him.
zhena gogolia
@Dan B:
One of my fantasy tickets is Buttigieg-Sean Maloney.
zhena gogolia
@Caphilldcne:
Harris was my candidate and now I’m not passionate about any of them (although Biden has won my sympathy after the disgusting slander he was subjected to in the Senate the last few days). But Pete is the anti-Trump: young, handsome, well-educated, highly intelligent, happily married, a veteran, and seemingly rather kind. That’s how I see his appeal. Inexperienced, yes, but — wow, all that government experience Trump had. Trump’s experience before (and after) election was at being a mob boss.
Kent
@Dan B: Geraldine Ferraro? Did she ever actually run for president? I only remember her as Mondale’s VP candidate.
Marcopolo
@Baud:I will certainly be happy to be wrong–and it wouldn’t be the first time. I just have this nagging worry that the information space folks live in now is fundamentally different than it was 20 years ago. On the one hand we have an abomination like Trump who is constantly doing a new awful thing so that over a course of a week it is hard just to remember on Friday that thing he did on Monday and the press aids in this by constantly pointing out the most immediate shiny Trump turd. On the other hand, we have what are I consider middling campaign/candidate flair ups that might normally fade out after a bit but are constantly regurgitated/relitigated though what seem to me to be conscious actions by folks/actors using social media. Call me chicken little but I find it worrisome.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: It would also be helpful for Trump to offer Zelensky a WH visit, but Pompeo very clearly did not do that last Friday.
jl
@Kent: Marshall’s argument seems reasonable to me. If I were in Iowa, I probably would have gone to the caucus, because I support Warren, and since she’s slipped in the polls and I’d want to show my support.
But if I had a chance to make somebody like Bloomberg or old Hick, or Moulton look like a loser, somebody I really really didn’t want in the race, 100 percent chance I’d go.
Dan B
@Marcopolo: Thanks a thousand times! We’re all a lot more than tense about the massive capture of much of the enfircement arm of the government and most of the various medias. Liberals strengths tend towards excellent critique and analysis. The GOP does marketing and cheerleading. We can do those as well without losing our souls. There are aspects of Warren, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, and even Bernie (economic justice does matter) and the rest. It would be hood to remind ourselves about the best of each of these and retain a healthy skepticism of the criticisms.
Old Dan and Little Ann
Some heckler was just removed.
Mnemosyne
@Mr. Longform:
I don’t hate him. I think he’s a nice young man who doesn’t have quite enough experience to be president. He has plenty of time to gain more experience and run again in the future.
tam1MI
Iowa has kicked the pinions out from under one of Sanders big “electability” arguments – that he was the guy to bring new, “non-voters” to the polls. In Iowa they didn’t show up. If that’s true, Sanders is in deep doo-doo – the only way to grow his base is to reach out to Hillary voters, and he has steadfastly refused to do that.
Caphilldcne
@zhena gogolia: you’re probably right. I have to say youth is a good look for the Dems. Unfortunately there hasn’t necessarily been a lot of movement to find fresh political talent and a lot of Members of Congress really hang onto those jobs.
Geminid
I don’t want to bash any candidate here. My friends hear me bashing the junior senator from Vermont a lot, but doing that on Balloon Juice is bringing coals to Newcastle. But I will express skepticism about Pete Buttegieg. There are several good reasons to support him, but I have thought since last summer that his main appeal is his intellect and his fluent, cogent answers to policy questions. Don’t get me wrong. These are admirable abilities. But if they necessarily translated into electoral prowess, Adlai Stevenson would have won in ’52 and ’56, and Al Gore would have won handily in 2000. So I wish him well, but will vote for someone else on the ballot in Va. on Super Tuesday.
Kent
@jl: I’ve honestly convinced myself that either of the two women are the best candidates to beat Trump. I don’t see this argument made anywhere. Trump has the alpha male dominant dog thing down pat. He cut through the GOP primary candidates like butter and has the entire white male GOP Senate and staff completely cowed like whipped dogs. That’s what he does.
On the other hand he seems truly terrified and ill at ease with strong women. Just about his first act of office was firing Janet Yellen who shared his monetary philosophy (such as it is) and put in place a more tight money white guy. He put two white guys on the supreme court and no women. His only female cabinet members are minor nepotism hires that are nowhere close to the seat of power (Chao and DeVoss). He is completely out of sorts every time he has to deal with Pelosi. And for fuck’s sake, Hillary beat him and he know it. He just seems deeply terrified of strong women.
I just think either Warren or Klobuchar provide a much better contrast to the puddle of bile that is Trump than any of the male candidates
And, the constant boot licking of Putin and other dictators around the world must also be somehow linked to the same pathology. It all has to be connected. I’m just terrified to dive too deeply into the Trump brain to figure it all out.
Aleta
@zhena gogolia:
–Susan Diabolus Collins
zhena gogolia
@Caphilldcne:
There was an array of wonderful young talent showcased during the impeachment hearings and trial.
Dan B
@zhena gogolia: Cohn said he was not homosexual that he liked to have sex with men. And he denied having AIDS. He was an example of internalized self hatred. I came out in that time and it was much too common. Most gay men said they had a “compulsion they could not resust” and they would not kiss because it would make them a fag. The change from those days to now is mind boggling. Still the suicide and substance abuse rates are very high. Homelessness among gay youth is huge, possibly as much as 40% of homeless youth are LGBT. The shadow of Roy Cohn’s is long. I’ve realized recently that I’ve suffered from PTSD from my childhood in the 50’s and 60’s. It has blindsided me at times.
zhena gogolia
@Dan B:
Yeah, it’s sad.
God, I hate Trump. (Just throwing that in there.)
the Conster
@Mr. Longform:
I don’t hate him. I just think a presidential candidate should be able to win their own state. cc: Al Gore
I’m thrilled he beat the old fraud. That’s quite the *revolution*.
randy khan
The moderate vote is around 55% and the leftish vote is around 43% – roughly an 11-1/2% gap. The Biden/Klobuchar voters moving to Buttigieg as a second choice don’t surprise me.
Now, that’s Iowa, not any other state, but it’s interesting nevertheless.
Dan B
@different-church-lady: Thanks for that, esp. Watergirl and Anne Laurie. It would have been nasty to endure his (it’s -bot?) lamentations on “Perverse” Pete, or some other insinuations.
clay
@Adam L Silverman: I was thinking of the commenters more than the front pagers. They can get nasty.
Although, now that I think of it, Farley is the front pager who is least likely to bash various Democratic candidates. Maybe because of the conflict of interest that you mention.
Anne Laurie
I don’t hate Buttigieg, but I’ll say this: The way (and his supporters) have reacted over the last 24 hours does make me more enthusiastic about voting for him in November, if he’s the nominee!
Yes, he’s a Democrat. Even better — he’s a grownup!
Old Dan and Little Ann
Jesus fucking Christ. It’s like the Jerry Springer show. Surprising a wife by having her deployed husband make an appearance. USA USA chanting. Oi!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid: I raised an eyebrow when a guy with two years in the Senate and a few terms in the state legislature announced he was running for president, based pretty much on a speech that didn’t satisfy my then-angrier (more fire-baggy, for those old enough to remember that) self. Going from the 9,000 vote mayor to run for President in an election this important, you gotta bring me more than I see in a young comer who would make a fine House candidate, and be a long shot for statewide office even in a much more friendly state than Indiana.
and then we got into “Those clowns in Washington! They need some good heartland common sense from a guy who can see corn fields from his front porch”
Martin
Interesting look into the fuel mileage battle between California and Trump.
California has other cards to play here. We’re not about to give up this easily after 40 years at this, and we sure as fuck aren’t going to lose on an issue this big to this asshole.
Kent
Like I said on another thread. I really love me some Val Demings. I think she would be a great VP candidate for any of the principals still left.
Adam L Silverman
@clay: Farley is a good guy.
Dan B
@zhena gogolia: Wow! Imagine them with their husbands and kids! I could imagine Gillum – Buttegieg too but because diversity. With a 60% female cabinet.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Old Dan and Little Ann: ugh, so cheap
Van Jones probably just put on a MAGA hat and swooned.
Caphilldcne
@zhena gogolia: yes. It’s starting to happen. I think some of it is that there was a bit of a youth and diversity movement in 2018. I just think there’s a mid-level group late 40s – early 60s that haven’t really caught on. Maybe it’s just the baby bust created a trough. I’ve been to a hell of a lot of democratic receptions with 70 year old members of Congress and now seeing lots of younger members. Of course the Republican taking a lot of state houses getting narrowed the pool although things seem to be somewhat improving there too.
WaterGirl
@Dan B: It was offensive to all of us. Ugh.
Anne Laurie
Counter-argument I’m seeing, among people who do this for a living: We Democrats aren’t as fired up for the primaries as we will be for the general. The crucial point for a lot of people is not which Dem we’ll be supporting, but that the Dem who’s eventually chosen gets all our support.
(Which, props to my personal favorite — Warren has been careful to keep pointing out, as Cole said earlier, that the real enemy is the Squatter-in-Chief.)
Mnemosyne
@Dan B:
My husband has gotten me hooked on the Canadian TV show “Schitt’s Creek,” starring Eugene Levy and Catherine O’Hara. Short version is, it’s about a family of 1%ers who end up living in a small town after they lose everything. What makes it very Canadian is that the characters start off as bad people, but they slowly learn and grow throughout the seasons.
One of the main characters is gay/pansexual and played by co-creator Daniel Levy (yes, Eugene Levy’s son — it’s very much a family affair). I don’t want to ruin any plot points, but Levy says that he deliberately decided that there would be no homophobia in the world he created, which lets the show be very sweet and accepting but also really funny. I think you may like it.
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: Are you kidding? You’re not kidding, right?
Dan B
@Kent: Yes, Ferraro was VP candidate but even that was considered very radical. And people couldn’t make the connection between Golda Meir or Indira Gandhi, or later on Maggie Thatcher. All were flawed leaders in some, or many, ways but they didn’t seem to affect the perceptions of Americans.
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: He was in 2016. I don’t know if he is this year. He’s not the formal one who works for Senator Sanders. That’s Matt Duss, who, as far as I can tell, never actually held a nat-sec job before he was hired by Sanders. Farley was part of a group of foreign policy advisors that were consulted by Sanders in 2016. I remember Farley doing a post about it. I haven’t been over to LGM in a while, largely because I’m so busy here, so I don’t know if he did a similar post this year.
Suzanne
@Kent:
I think I agree with you.
There’s definitely a subset of people who don’t hate Trump’s politics (whatever they are) but they don’t like his demeanor and all the drama. I think a smart, capable, experienced woman who doesn’t engage in dramatics is a powerful foil.
I feel like I have aged more in the last three years than I had in the previous thirty.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
He actually announced it during the speech? I thought people were just talking about the rumors from earlier today. My fuckign god.
zhena gogolia
Dan B
@Geminid: Yep. Pete’s intellect is a two edged sword. People like someone smarter than them to lead but not too smart. I also think Pete’s appeal is to suburban women who like how polite he is.
chris
@zhena gogolia: Woohoo! Nancy Smash!
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: I haven’t been over there a lot lately either, and it used to be the blog I turned to right after this one. I got turned off by the tone of some of the front-pagers there (not Farley, I hasten to add) and just stopped reading.
Same thing happened with me with Crooked Timber back during the ’16 election, as I recall – I used to really admire a lot of their posts, but thought a lot of the white male lefty academics really showed their misogynistic asses when it came to HRC. Shame about that.
Anne Laurie
So will I, obvs. But if Buttigieg is the eventual nominee, and he offers Warren the VP slot, I won’t be insulted. I don’t think he would, necessarily, but I could happily vote for that ticket.
I could also vote happily for a Pete/Biden, Pete/Klobuchar, heck Pete/KHarris or Pete/O’Rourke ticket! And it’s not like we have to worry about the ‘independent, unless I wanna freeride yer party’ candidate. That dude don’t take second ticket to nobody, and in the case of Mayor Pete, even the suggestion would cause his more devoted stans to turn on him like rabid ferrets.
Jinchi
Exactly, for all the freakout in the press, we pretty much knew the result from the start because people could actually see how the vote was coming down. A three-way tie in a race where the delegates are split roughly proportionally. NYT’s current guess is 13-13-10 (Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren) with 4 for Biden and 1 for Klobuchar. The final result will probably vary by plus or minus a few delegates for a couple of the candidates, but “who won” is nothing more than bragging rights, especially when no candidate really dominated.
Biden underperforming is really the only takeaway.
Another Scott
BlueVirginia.us:
The bill passed the Virginia Senate 21:19.
Good, good.
Eyes on the prizes.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: They’re all good folks for the most part. But we and they tend to cover a lot of the same stuff and if I’m spending my time over here doing what I agreed to do (why, again did I do that?), I don’t have the time to be there.
Mike J
A child born this year will be able to vote for him when he’s younger than Biden, Bernie, Warren, or Klobuchar.
Aleta
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
zhena gogolia
OMG, everybody watch this ad, this is so brilliant!!!!!
Elizabelle
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Not just announced it. Melania put the medal on Limbaugh, in the audience. Standing ovation. Nancy Smash not looking in their direction, looking a tad grim.
Dan B
@the Conster: I’ll chip in a few bucks to start your campaign in North Alabama (Indiana) or West Bama (Texas), or East Bama (Florida). We’ve got Pete, Beto, and Gillum who are talented and great at retail politics but even with hundreds if billions from Bloomberg are nit likely to win bigger i their states, maybe Gillum but not likely Gov or Senate, partly because corrupt politics. How do we advance talent in red swamps?
Jinchi
That wouldn’t be my preferred pick for Buttigieg. I like Warren in the Senate if she can’t win the presidency. But it would have echos of the young, unseasoned Obama reaching out for an older, established Biden to lend credibility to his candidacy. So maybe it would be a smart move.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@zhena gogolia: damn! who put that together? Is it going on TV? do they need money to put it on Facebook? where do I send it?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Have you considered the solution from the classic film Multiplicity?
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I have no idea. I’ll try to find out. It is giving me goosebumps. What great use of Schiff’s closing speech.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: You’re doing it for the money. Be honest.
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Eleven Films
@Eleven_Films
? Portland based media company specializing in creative internet content, documentaries, news, music and film. #Resist #BlueWave
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Holy Cow!
Red Sox trade Mookie Betts and David Price to Dodgers.
Suzanne
During. The. Speech.
Nothing means shit anymore in this country.
I just ate a salad with my hands.
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It’s from Eleven Films (that particular one isn’t on their YouTube channel yet).
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@Another Scott: Good for all of them but happy to hear my rep was right in there. I think I’ll call her office tomorrow to extend my thanks.
Dan B
@Mnemosyne: I’m not a mind reader but it would not surprise me that Pete looked at his prospects in Indiana and decided that a respectable showing on the national stage was a better bet fir future prospects than certain defeat at Rep., Senate, or Gov in Indiana. Indiana had one of the largest, if not the largest, Klans in the country. Ohio is purple by comparison. Also running a national campaign is good way to learn, fast.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Suzanne: if you send Klobuchar $25, they’ll send you an AMY! salad-eatin’ comb
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I think one of me is quite enough. Most people I know think one of me is one too many.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: We don’t get paid. Apparently the NAZIs were getting paid at their blog. Balloon Juice writers clearly need a union.
Kent
@Martin: Any way to get around the WSJ paywall? I’m not going to pay for a subscription just to read the occasional forwarded link
James E Powell
@Miss Bianca:
Agreed. And the comments are increasingly like DailyKos.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: And then the feed cost comes into play. Probably best not.
West of the Rockies
@zhena gogolia:
Loved that ad!
Kent
I think it lines him up nicely for a technocrat type job in the next administration. I’d make him Sec of Commerce which is Small Business Administration, Census, Patent Office, a National Institute of Standards and Technology, and NOAA. All technocratic jobs he would be good at. Especially NOAA which is the lead agency on climate change.
Or if we want to fuck with the world, Make him and his husband ambassadors to the Vatican…heh.
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies:
I’ve watched it five times now. The ending is a gutpunch.
chris
@Adam L Silverman: Damn! No more race war section! So sad.
Anne Laurie
@Adam L Silverman: Because we all appreciate your erudition and hard work?
(And sense of humor, too!)
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: My meat and poultry and fish consumption to keep my protein levels set for my workout requirements would cause AOC to sneeze a new green new deal.
Anne Laurie
@Jinchi: Bingo. I’d like to keep Warren in the Senate too — and not just for selfish reasons — but if the combo reminds low-info voters that the whole Obama/Biden think worked out pretty well…
Heck, we’d probably end up with Joe Kennedy III replacing Warren & working in tandem with Ed Markey (my guy), so win-win for us Massholes!
randy khan
@Another Scott:
I believe that if this goes through (which it should) it will be the first repeal (I hope of many) of any voter ID law in the U.S.
sdhays
@zhena gogolia: That link doesn’t work for me. It says “page does not exist”. Did they take it down?
Matt McIrvin
@Martin: At some point the administration is going to establish maximum fuel mileage standards, and try to ban electric cars outright. Maybe ban catalytic converters and mandate coal-rollin’ stacks on all diesel pickups.
Kent
@Anne Laurie: The last time the Senate actually put together a complex large-scale piece of legislation was the Affordable Care Act in 2010. There just isn’t much actual work being done in the Senate anymore except confirmations (and investigations if the opposite party is in the white house). The days of workhorse Senators is basically over unless we get back to 60 or toss out the filibuster. So I’m basically of the mind that any competent blue vote is more or less fine. I like Warren but I think she is basically wasted in the Senate compared to actually getting stuff done in the executive branch.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jim, Foolish Literalist
tallred
@Marcopolo:
There is a difference between voting for a candidate and getting badgered and shouted down by a Berniebot at a caucus. As long ago as 2016 feels, it wasn’t so long ago that anybody would forget the way the Sandernistas treat folks who aren’t like them.
Let’s look at the turnout in a primary.
Original Lee
Original Spouse hates Medicare for All and thinks it’s stupid for Democrats to go all in on something that so many regular folks are opposed to. After the SOTU, he turned to me and said, “Trump just kicked off his re-election campaign and if the Democrats keep pushing for Medicare for All, I swear to God I’ll vote for Trump. The Democrats will bankrupt the country with that shit. They need to push the Dutch model.”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
TriassicSands
Our lonnnng Iowa nightmare is almost over…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Original Lee:
I’ll go that far with your spouse, no farther
Jinchi
Please tell me that’s a parody. It reads like an article in the Onion.
sdhays
@Original Lee: Because Dump and the Republicans have such a great track record on not “bankrupting the country”.
I swear, Republicans could literally bankrupt the country, and people would still be criticizing Democrats for whatever they want to do.
Redshift
@sdhays: Well, you know, everyone expects Republicans to bankrupt the country, so it’s not really news; barely worth mentioning. But Democrats doing it would be a Big Deal!
Which would be a lot funnier if that wasn’t the attitude of must of the news media toward Republican racism, misogyny, unethical behavior…
Original Lee
@sdhays: I think he was comparing the base buttons Trimp was pushing in the SOTU with all of the enthusiastic supporters of getting rid of private insurance and played his strongest card. He voted for Obama twice and he voted for Hillary, but he’s soooooo frustrated with what he considers a bridge too far.
dww44
@sdhays: Had the same experience. Would love to be able to see it after so many rave comments.
eddie blake
@Original Lee:
you point out to your original spouse that the united states has a sovereign currency and all of our debts are in dollars, so the united states cannot ever go bankrupt?
FFS.
Dan B
@zhena gogolia: Late but.. I got a ‘sorry, page doesn’t exist’. Is there something to look for?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Dan B: Cheryl put a video in the next thread
Raven Onthill
Meantime, this from historian Timothy Burke, a few days ago:
I have the sick feeling that he is right.
Sister Golden Bear
@Dan B: Your thoughts and Betty’s:
captures my own mixed feelings. Pete is far from my preferred choice, but as queer trans woman, seeing an openly gay man leading in Iowa — where only last week a group Republican attempted to strip civil rights protections from trans people — is a bit of unexpected hope in these dark times.
Anne Laurie
@Sister Golden Bear: Not Betty, actually, but thank you!
Chris Johnson
@Raven Onthill: Why would they be NOT going full force right now? I see them out there constantly, fucking with everybody as hard as they can in their Putinesque way. I know what’s behind a good half of the divisiveness and carefully selected splitting-points we see even in threads here.
Is it even slightly in character for these evil fucks to be NOT attacking right now? Burke is crazy if he thinks the Republican/Russian attack machine isn’t running flat out already.
Why would any sane person think they are waiting?
Shalimar
@Adam L Silverman: I would have to see proof before I believed Anglin was paying anyone other than himself.