Early returns (24 hours late) have Buttigieg with the delegate lead but losing the popular vote.
Pete Buttigieg took a narrow early lead over Bernie Sanders in the first wave of partial results from the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday, as the state party released results from 62 percent of precincts.
The partial results showed Mr. Buttigieg with 26.9 percent of the state’s delegate equivalents, Mr. Sanders with 25.1 percent, Elizabeth Warren with 18.3 percent, and Joseph R. Biden Jr. with 15.6 percent. Amy Klobuchar had 12.6 percent of the delegate equivalents followed by Andrew Yang at 1.1 percent and Tom Steyer with 0.3 percent.
It is not clear when the rest of the caucus results would be released, or if the full results would alter the current standings of the candidates. The 62 percent of precincts counted so far are relatively representative of the state, but the margin between Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Sanders is unusually slim.
The major upside to this is that this will ENRAGE Sanders supporters if Sanders wins the popular vote but does not get the delegate lead, and they will burn the caucuses to the fucking ground. And we should support them.
If the DNC had any power, the primaries would be 10+ states a month, starting in January, ending in May, on the same day, with ranked choice voting. That’s enough on the same day that you could do a wide variety of regions every month, people would be forced to campaign everywhere, etc.
Baud
They will burn the party to the ground, not the caucus system.
Mike J
Caucus update: December 1st I said
Yesterday on twitter:
https://twitter.com/PeteForAmerica/status/1224412365975957504?s=20
Mnemosyne
It cracks me up that Sanders was surpassed not by Biden, but by This Year’s Model. I think that the age thing may be more of a problem for Sanders and Biden than the MSM thinks it will.
I also suspect that Mayor Pete did well because he’s a nice white boy from the Midwest, which is very appealing in Iowa. All that “heartland” bullshit from last week probably pulled him a few extra votes.
schrodingers_cat
@Mike J: Good planning on Pete B’s part. I am seeing pro BS memes on Indian lefty political Twitter. People who have no fucking clue about what they are talking about are beating their chests about how Bernie wuz robbed.
dr. bloor
The completely un-self aware bitching and moaning about the caucus process from the Sandernistas this cycle is going to be epic.
John S.
One of things that drives me nuts about some Sanders supporters is that they scream loudly about something (the system is rigged), demand changes to correct that something (we need more caucuses), then scream loudly again (the system is rigged) when they are given what they wanted and that doesn’t work out for them.
It’s really not a good look.
NotMax
Parsing partial results is futile. It’s like reviewing any Titanic movie before the iceberg.
Mike J
@dr. bloor: Republicans are picking up Berers and amplifying them too. The mayor cheat hashtag started with Berners and now the biggest users are Republicans.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
I really hope that Iowa releases the final Iowa caucus tallies about 5 minutes after Trump starts his SotU. You know it would completely bigfoot his address and drive him crazy.
John S.
@Mike J: You can’t spell Republican without B-E-R-N-I-E?
(I know, I counted the E twice.)
Roger Moore
@Mike J:
Are you sure it started with the Bernistas and not the Russian bot army?
Barbara
Still mostly fog of war, but yes, the assumption based on a single election cycle that Sanders would benefit from caucuses was always misplaced. Single digit datapoints from sui generis events should not be used for extrapolating general principles.
frosty
Oh, jeez. I was looking forward to not reading any more about lung cancer and we’re back to Iowa?
Fellow jackals, I admire you all, but I may have to sit the comments on this one out. I have meeting minutes and Action Items to write.
Elizabelle
Iowa wants a white male candidate. Quel surprise.
John S.
@Roger Moore: But you repeat yourself. ;-)
Kelly
Primary’s by time zone, a month apart, ordered by a random drawing.
Mnemosyne
@Roger Moore:
Is there a difference between the two? They’re constantly amplifying each other.
HumboldtBlue
AOC has announced she will boycott the SOTU over Trump’s conduct along with 10 other Democrats.
Baud
@Mnemosyne:
Chris Mathews of all people noted that it was not a great night for Bernie when you consider that he was in Iowa in 2016 and got 45% of the vote. More competition this time, obviously, but he hasn’t kept his “revolution” intact.
Starfish
@Elizabelle: This covers my feelings about it.
schrodingers_cat
@Roger Moore: Is there a difference. Corbyn, and now BS is popular among the online left in India too from my observation. People are tweeting hyperbolic and meaningless nonsense like :
DNC will vote for the Orange One if BS is the nominee.
Mike J
@Roger Moore:
https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status/1224836650582323202?s=20
Starfish
@HumboldtBlue: They can do so many more interesting things. They can go and yell “IMPEACHED” at him. My Congressperson is bringing one of the parents of one of the kids who was killed at Columbine as his guest. They can bring the relatives of people being held by ICE. They can bring the relatives of people who got TBI in that Iranian strike where “no one was injured.”
Cheryl Rofer
dr. bloor
@NotMax: Not to mention a trip on the Titanic itself.
tam1MI
Reposted from an earlier thread:
This all could change, but certain media outlets are reporting that all that is left to count are rural counties that are Biden-Buttigieg strongholds. Current projections are that Buttigieg will increase his lead and Biden will movie up in the rankings, maybe even knocking Warren out of third place.
Grain of salt and all…
So it’s possible that Buttigieg could win both the popular vote and the delegate count.
HumboldtBlue
@Starfish:
Good points all.
I do appreciate their willingness to be confrontational about it, however. If it happens it distracts from Trump and points the spotlight on young brown women who openly mock him and he can’t stand that.
Kelly
Iowa Caucus app developer is looking for work ;-)
https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1224793942190780416
surfk9
The best thing about the Iowa clusterf*ck is that the talking heads on TV and radio are all talking about it. They are not talking about the SOTU which they would be doing otherwise. It’s got to be driving Twitler insane that he is not controlling the news cycle.
Biff Baxter
The irony is so rich here. If only he had visited Mason City one more time.
Mike J
Heavens to Betsy! Did you know that the head of the IA Dems worked for campaigns (not of anyone running this year) before? Obviously a sign of cheating! A person in politics used to work in politics!
the Conster
President Gephardt applauds Mayo Pete’s win.
ALSO:
@WeWillRiseOhio
Btw, Bernie wasn’t viable in Clive, Iowa. This was also where
@RashidaTlaib
boo’d Hillary. Thought you would like this little tid bit
Roger Moore
@surfk9:
I don’t know if “Democrats in Disarray” is a particularly better news story for the Democrats than “Trump goes on unhinged rant during SOTU”.
the Conster
@Mike J:
Bernie can’t fail, he can only be cheated.
chopper
@Baud:
exactly. wilmer wanted to keep these anachronisms around with their myriad stupid rules. in spite of that he’ll declare it all the fault of the ‘corrupt failyuhs at the DNC’ and his rabid followers will set fire to the whole place.
Morzer
People who have no fucking clue about what they are talking about are beating their chests about how Bernie wuz robbed.
chopper
@John S.:
the extra “e” is for “e’s not gonna win”
burnspbesq
Given Wilmer’s history of doing better in caucuses than elections, the Bros may want to zip it. This hardly looks like a good result.
Kraux Pas
My ex loves Buttigieg. He must be pleased as punch right now.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
when Clinton won the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes, but lost the Electoral College the Bernouts were the first to say “she should have campaigned more in Wisconsin”.
Well Bernouts, now that the shoe is on the other foot, how ya like them apples.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Isn’t the whole logic of his campaign that people who have never voted will storm the ballot boxes, eager to have the Nordic welfare state realized by righteous bellowing and executive orders?
kindness
I like the cut of John’s jib there. I agree about the regional primaries and the shorter time frame.
surfk9
@Roger Moore: I’ll take it if it means that the Shitgibbon is freaked out about it. I’m expecting an extra unhinged performance tonight.
JGabriel
John Cole @ Top:
Perhaps “Preliminary Returns” would be the mot juste?
The Dangerman
Reasonably happy about Warren’s performance; she might be the front-runner nationally. Utterly shocked at Biden’s numbers. WTF Iowa?
I think there was general agreement in a post a day or 2 or 3 ago that Sanders would get his ass kicked by Trump. Now, I’ve never listened to Buttigieg speak, so I could be missing something, but he might fare worse than Sanders against Trump in the General. No way, no how, going from Mayor of South Bend to President. Not gonna happen.
Sigh. C’mon Democrats, this can’t be THAT hard … can it?
Jeffro
@Cheryl Rofer: LOL
I’m very excited at the prospect of Bernie & Buttigieg supporters ripping each other to shreds. You know what would really SHOW THOSE GUYS, B&B partisans? If you would throw your support behind Elizabeth Warren in the general. THAT’LL show ’em!
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Non-voters don’t vote.
The idea of turning out non-voters sounds nice, but doesn’t really accomplish anything. It’s identical to people who say we need to reach across the aisle and would spend everything running ads on Fox.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Which enemy of True Progressives did this running dog run with? Obama? The She-Beast of Chappequa?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
On MSNBC just now, they said turnout was up in urban areas and down in rural areas.
david
Only 62% in, but the SDE (State Delegate Equivalents) count:
Buttigieg – 363
Sanders – 338
———————–
Warren – 246
Biden – 210
Klobuchar – 170
————————
Yang – 14
Steyer – 4
Bloomberg – 0
The rest had already dropped out (I think). At least, the pack is stringing out.
The media has its ‘head-to-head’; and there’s three solid candidates not that
far off that can still make an impact in the next few primaries.
Yang and his band of online twittiots can now go away. Those trending hashtags were laughable.
The two billionaires can find more pragmatic ways to spend
their money to make a real difference in the campaign (hopefully).
Five in the clown car is rather comfortable. Plenty of leg room. We even have enough
seat belts for all. Let’s see where they go from here.
Baud
I’m a little apprehensive about how mainstream the anti-caucus sentiment is. I’m used to being outlier.
Jeffro
Other points
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: IA director for Obama in 12, Clinton in 16. Press aide for Tom Vilsack.
dr. bloor
@Baud: “I would never be the president of a country that would elect me” is going to be an awkward moment during your inauguration speech.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Their demo was even better than their first album. But they really sold out when they signed with Kill Rock Stars.
Mike J
@david: Bloomberg was explicitly skipping the first four, and expects to run commercials for a looong time because candidates get price breaks. As long as he’s aiming his fire at Trump and not Democrats I’m ok with it.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
This also shows polling in Iowa sucks:
Emerson had Wilmer beating Pete by 13 points
Dailykos’s firm Civiqs also had Wilmer beating Pete by 13 points
Monmouth had Wilmer beating Pete by 5 points
Yougov also had Wilmer beating Pete by 5 points
And all those people and bloggers who insisted polls weren’t measuring Wilmer’s base “enthusiasm” and therefore his projected margin of victory would be higher due to high turnout are now on the ash heap of history along with “Bully Pulpit” and “Revolution”
Geminid
This is a setback for Biden, as he spent plenty of time in Iowa. His best argument is electability, and polling showed that electability is a high priority for Iowans- but they did not come out strongly for him. I like him, and I’m not writing him off yet, but I vote in Virginia on Super Tuesday and I’m thinking it will be Warren.
Caphilldcne
@Cheryl Rofer: wow! Love Capitol Hill Books altho it’s been awhile since I’ve been in. jammed with books. Something very elemental there. And yeah they’re snarky for sure.
Baud
@dr. bloor:
Lincoln’s Gettsburg Address
FDR’s Inaugural Address
Baud’s “What Were You Thinking” Address
Ruckus
@John S.:
If, and that’s a big if, they are thinking at all they would realize exactly what you are saying. However, they are for the most part, a cult. So there doesn’t have to be any there, there. There doesn’t have to reason and rational thought, cults actually have to work at that angle to be successful – scientology. They work at “educating” their followers, OK indoctrinating them completely, including teaching them that everything outside the cult is not only wrong but dangerous. bernie shouts because he needs to be heard over reality.
Elizabelle
@chopper:
Laughing. Thank you. (Re Bernie.)
Jeffro
@Geminid: I vote in VA too and I’ll be surprised – pleasantly, but still surprised – if Warren comes out on top here. It sure won’t be anyone but her or Biden. Fingers crossed.
Mike J
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Go back to ’04 and look at how far ahead Howard Dean was. He was going to walk away with it all because he didn’t need to run.
Kerry had a precinct captain in every precinct. Dated Dean, married Kerry.
Kelly
@Mike J:
https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1224776291167232000
CBS reporter asked Bloomberg if he thinks “people are interested in seeing two billionaires fight out over Twitter?” Bloomberg replied,“Two billionaires?” “Who’s the second one?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid:
true, but… then their top two picks were Sanders and Buttigieg
one nugget that was floating around twitter on Sunday: Buttigieg was running the heaviest on TV in the last week
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Baud: That follows the pattern we’ve seen in the midterms, special elections, and off year elections in Virginia, were Dem turnout spikes in the suburbs, while lagging in rural districts.
Elizabelle
Swish. Good for Bloomberg. He’s not wrong, either.
Omnes Omnibus
An atypical state runs a undemocratic process and we are supposed to make judgments on 62% of the results?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Geminid: From your keyboard to God’s eyes. Anybody but Wilmer.
sdhays
@chopper: It won’t stop them from throwing blame that way, but this fiasco is definitely not the DNC’s fault. They told Iowa Democrats not to create the app, and they did it anyway.
Barbara
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I had a co-worker once upon a time who was really active in the movement to divest from apartheid South Africa. When I first met her (1987) she told me with great conviction that she thought that anti-apartheid would be a major campaign issue in 1988. I told her that having just moved from NC I was pretty sure her optimism was misplaced. She told me that Cambridge was more representative of the country than “the South.”
It is just a fact that it is easy to reinforce your own beliefs based on very little data and strongly shared convictions – in this case the belief that new voters would flock to the polls and thus reduce the need for Sanders to cultivate Clinton voters.
Ruckus
@Mike J:
Or go on faux news and expect anyone to think you are who they want to vote for….. mayor
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Just turned on MSNBC long enough to hear that Limbaugh is sitting next to Melanie. trump doesn’t give a shit anymore, he’s going all-in. Like I said earlier about the the Medal Of Freedom, there was a time I thought stuff like this would blow back on him.
Prove me wrong, America.
Please
Kent
My 13 year old daughter just now…unprovoked
“OMG….Look at Melania! It must be contagious. She is turning orange too!”
sdhays
@Baud: The only thing to do is demand that every state EXCEPT Iowa conduct caucuses in 2024. You have to maintain your brand.
Barbara
@Geminid: I honestly don’t know because it seems like he did better than was being reported last night.
Geminid
Though not so obvious as with Biden, this is also a setback for Sanders. He has a specific electability argument- that through the “energy” of his adherents he can bring large numbers of alienated voters to the table. Well, if he can’t make this happen in the Iowa caucuses, where will it happen?
clay
@Kelly: Gotta hand it to him. That’s a good burn.
Jeffro
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: it didn’t work well in 2017, 2018, or 2019…he riles up his base and drives up their turnout, but drives ours even higher.
So by all means, trumpov…
…(you already know what I’m going to say)…
…please proceed.
sdhays
@Geminid: I thought I remembered Biden essentially conceding Iowa the day he announced his campaign. Coming in third is probably about where he expected to be. Biden’s plan, as I understand it, is to hang on in Iowa and New Hampshire, clean up in South Carolina (and Nevada? I don’t know what the polls are saying there), and ride into Super Tuesday on that strength.
danielx
May have remarked on this before, but Bernie is reminding me more and more of never-to-be-sufficiently-accursed egotistical shithead Ralph Nader
sdhays
@Geminid: I have no idea how the media will spin it, but going from 45% to less than 30% in Iowa is bad for Bernie. He easily lost to HRC in 2016, so he needs to outperform his 2016 performance, and he’s not.
Kent
@danielx: He’s always reminded me of Nader. His supporters too.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@danielx: Nader had more accomplishments before he decided to help elect the then worst president in history, and lacked Sanders’ bellowing, sanctimonious and (to me) baffling charisma
senyordave
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Just turned on MSNBC long enough to hear that Limbaugh is sitting next to Melanie.
Trump and Melania might have nothing to do with each other, but I suspect that he is a jealous motherfucker. And Melania is definitely not Rush’s type, for obvious reasons.
WaterGirl
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: All the polls I saw, though, admitted that 50% had not decided yet and around 50% of those who had a candidate already admitted that their choices were fluid.
So no one worth their salt should have been predicting anything.
Kent
Don’t know if anyone else is watching this (you aren’t missing anything) but this is the lowest energy monotone Trump I have ever seen. It’s like he is sedated or something.
sdhays
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s true. It was a real tragic way to end a momentous career (although, I guess he was always an asshole, so maybe it was inevitable).
sdhays
@Kent: Any brain glitches yet?
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Aside from the gold standard Des Moines Register poll, ALL polling in Iowa is notoriously unreliable. Twas ever thus.
Kent
@sdhays: He refused to shake Pelosi’s hand. Heh. I’m sure she was relieved not to have to touch him.
sdhays
@Kent: Yeah, I doubt she was hurt by the snub.
Marcopolo
The biggest thing I am taking away from IA is the lack of turnout. It is really troubling. We had a decent sized field, candidates that represented the entire spectrum of the D electorate, huge investment by at least 5 campaigns to get folks to the polls; we have a fucking disaster of an R president with most polls showing public interest in the 2020 election is sky high and we only equalled the turnout from 2016. That is a problem.
Folks on the blog can continue to say shit about the candidates they don’t like, it is a free country and I realize venting makes a person feel better but one of these folks is going to be our nominee and unless some of us start setting an example and talk up all the positive reasons why folks should be supporting our candidates we are going to look up, find out the election is a week away and we have poisoned some percentage of people who should be voting D against the eventual nominee.
In an earlier thread there was a lot of discussion about EW & her lack of support among AA voters, who we all agree are a backbone of our voting bloc. Honestly, inspiring the support of the AA voting base isn’t just EW’s problem. Our AA presidential nominees (Cory & Kamala) didn’t appear to inspire support among the community. According to polling, Biden has the most support atm but then I think back to 2016 and HRC and her massive advantage with AA voters in the primary that did not seem to translate into votes in November. I’m pretty sure there are any number of bad actors out there trying to make sure that happens again this time around (basically poisoning low info minority voters against voting D).
So when you want to take a swing at EW or Sanders or Buttigieg or Biden or whomever, keep in mind that those swings have lingering effects. I would so much rather y’all stay positive, talk about what about these candidates really gets you excited–or hell, what about the D agenda gets you really excited. We need to figure out the best arguments for getting our voters out to the polls in November. We need to start working on getting these folks excited now. It seems pretty fucking insurmountable to me atm–maybe that is because it is Feb–but we do have time. Maybe give it a thought or two?
Just my two cents. And I realize almost all the campaigns have their arsehole supporters saying really stupid shit (but also bots & bad actors instigating and amplifying all of the crap too) about other candidates (and some campaigns seem to attract more of these effing fuckwads than others) but how about we try to do better?
Elizabelle
@Marcopolo: Great comment. I agree.
Miss Bianca
@schrodingers_cat:
On Indian Twitter, too? Really?
Mnemosyne
@Marcopolo:
Can we still say mean things about their campaign staff? Because Sirota is constantly stirring up shit on Twitter.
Miss Bianca
@Barbara:
Damn it, there you go bringing all that science-y logic shit into it again.
Miss Bianca
@Cheryl Rofer: LOL!!
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Kelly:
Well comrade Putin of course…..
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@danielx: You are not, by far, the only one to notice that. Trying that two times in a row is an interesting hat trick though.
Marcopolo
@Mnemosyne:Oh yeah, say whatever the hell you want to say about that fuckwad. I’ll be cheering from the back. Feel free to say whatever you want about Sarandon & West as well.
And obviously, having a campaign that does seem to promote a strategy of slash & burn, my way or the highway crap makes it harder to stay positive vis a vis them but there you are. I’m supporting Warren but I do know a couple very decent folks who are behind Wilmer–it’s just his most odious supporters are also apparently his loudest.
burnspbesq
@Marcopolo:
And it appears he likes it that way. How else to explain putting Sirota and Turner in senior leadership positions?