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Shut up, hissy kitty!

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

Books are my comfort food!

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

The revolution will be supervised.

đŸŽ¶ Those boots were made for mockin’ đŸŽ”

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

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Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

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Technically true, but collectively nonsense

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

So many bastards, so little time.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2020 / Iowa Caucus Update

Iowa Caucus Update

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Early returns (24 hours late) have Buttigieg with the delegate lead but losing the popular vote.

Pete Buttigieg took a narrow early lead over Bernie Sanders in the first wave of partial results from the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday, as the state party released results from 62 percent of precincts.

The partial results showed Mr. Buttigieg with 26.9 percent of the state’s delegate equivalents, Mr. Sanders with 25.1 percent, Elizabeth Warren with 18.3 percent, and Joseph R. Biden Jr. with 15.6 percent. Amy Klobuchar had 12.6 percent of the delegate equivalents followed by Andrew Yang at 1.1 percent and Tom Steyer with 0.3 percent.

It is not clear when the rest of the caucus results would be released, or if the full results would alter the current standings of the candidates. The 62 percent of precincts counted so far are relatively representative of the state, but the margin between Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Sanders is unusually slim.

The major upside to this is that this will ENRAGE Sanders supporters if Sanders wins the popular vote but does not get the delegate lead, and they will burn the caucuses to the fucking ground. And we should support them.

If the DNC had any power, the primaries would be 10+ states a month, starting in January, ending in May, on the same day, with ranked choice voting. That’s enough on the same day that you could do a wide variety of regions every month, people would be forced to campaign everywhere, etc.

Reader Interactions

103Comments

  3. 3.

    Mnemosyne

    It cracks me up that Sanders was surpassed not by Biden, but by This Year’s Model. I think that the age thing may be more of a problem for Sanders and Biden than the MSM thinks it will.

    I also suspect that Mayor Pete did well because he’s a nice white boy from the Midwest, which is very appealing in Iowa. All that “heartland” bullshit from last week probably pulled him a few extra votes.

  4. 4.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Mike J: Good planning on Pete B’s part. I am seeing pro BS memes on Indian lefty political Twitter. People who have no fucking clue about what they are talking about are beating their chests about how Bernie wuz robbed.

  5. 5.

    dr. bloor

    The completely un-self aware bitching and moaning about the caucus process from the Sandernistas this cycle is going to be epic.

  6. 6.

    John S.

    One of things that drives me nuts about some Sanders supporters is that they scream loudly about something (the system is rigged), demand changes to correct that something (we need more caucuses), then scream loudly again (the system is rigged) when they are given what they wanted and that doesn’t work out for them.

    It’s really not a good look.

  9. 9.

    Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]

    I really hope that Iowa releases the final Iowa caucus tallies about 5 minutes after Trump starts his SotU. You know it would completely bigfoot his address and drive him crazy.

  12. 12.

    Barbara

    Still mostly fog of war, but yes, the assumption based on a single election cycle that Sanders would benefit from caucuses was always misplaced. Single digit datapoints from sui generis events should not be used for extrapolating general principles.

  13. 13.

    frosty

    Oh, jeez. I was looking forward to not reading any more about lung cancer and we’re back to Iowa?
    Fellow jackals, I admire you all, but I may have to sit the comments on this one out. I have meeting minutes and Action Items to write.

  19. 19.

    Baud

    @Mnemosyne:

    Chris Mathews of all people noted that it was not a great night for Bernie when you consider that he was in Iowa in 2016 and got 45% of the vote. More competition this time, obviously, but he hasn’t kept his “revolution” intact.

  21. 21.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Roger Moore: Is there a difference. Corbyn, and now BS is popular among the online left in India too from my observation. People are tweeting hyperbolic and meaningless nonsense like :

    DNC will vote for the Orange One if BS is the nominee.

  23. 23.

    Starfish

    @HumboldtBlue: They can do so many more interesting things. They can go and yell “IMPEACHED” at him. My Congressperson is bringing one of the parents of one of the kids who was killed at Columbine as his guest. They can bring the relatives of people being held by ICE. They can bring the relatives of people who got TBI in that Iranian strike where “no one was injured.”

  26. 26.

    tam1MI

    Reposted from an earlier thread:

    This all could change, but certain media outlets are reporting that all that is left to count are rural counties that are Biden-Buttigieg strongholds.  Current projections are that Buttigieg will increase his lead and Biden will movie up in the rankings, maybe even knocking Warren out of third place.

    Grain of salt and all


    So it’s possible that Buttigieg could win both the popular vote and the delegate count.

  27. 27.

    HumboldtBlue

    @Starfish:

    Good points all.

    I do appreciate their willingness to be confrontational about it, however. If it happens it distracts from Trump and points the spotlight on young brown women who openly mock him and he can’t stand that.

  29. 29.

    surfk9

    The best thing about the Iowa clusterf*ck is that the talking heads on TV and radio are all talking about it. They are not talking about the SOTU which they would be doing otherwise. It’s got to be driving Twitler insane that he is not controlling the news cycle.

  31. 31.

    Mike J

    Heavens to Betsy!  Did you know that the head of the IA Dems worked for campaigns (not of anyone running this year) before?  Obviously a sign of cheating!  A person in politics used to work in politics!

  32. 32.

    the Conster

    President Gephardt applauds Mayo Pete’s win.

    ALSO:

    @WeWillRiseOhio

    Btw, Bernie wasn’t viable in Clive, Iowa. This was also where
    @RashidaTlaib
    boo’d Hillary. Thought you would like this little tid bit

  35. 35.

    chopper

    @Baud:

    exactly. wilmer wanted to keep these anachronisms around with their myriad stupid rules. in spite of that he’ll declare it all the fault of the ‘corrupt failyuhs at the DNC’ and his rabid followers will set fire to the whole place.

  36. 36.

    Morzer

    @schrodingers_cat:

    People who have no fucking clue about what they are talking about are beating their chests about how Bernie wuz robbed.

    I feel like I’ve seen this movie before and I didn’t care much for it the first time.

  38. 38.

    burnspbesq

    Given Wilmer’s history of doing better in caucuses than elections, the Bros may want to zip it. This hardly looks like a good result.

  40. 40.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    this will ENRAGE Sanders supporters if Sanders wins the popular vote but does not get the delegate lead

    when Clinton won the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes, but lost the Electoral College the Bernouts were the first to say “she should have campaigned more in Wisconsin”.

    Well Bernouts, now that the shoe is on the other foot, how ya like them apples.

  41. 41.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Alex Thompson @ AlxThomp
    Bernie disappointed with the turnout last night as his campaign had focused its resources on turning out new voters. “from what I’ve heard, that they’re somewhat higher than in 16, not as high frankly as I would’ve like to have seen” he tells @ryangrim

    Isn’t the whole logic of his campaign that people who have never voted will storm the ballot boxes, eager to have the Nordic welfare state realized by righteous bellowing and executive orders?

  42. 42.

    kindness

    I like the cut of John’s jib there.  I agree about the regional primaries and the shorter time frame.

  44. 44.

    JGabriel

    John Cole @ Top:

    Early returns (24 hours late) …

    Perhaps “Preliminary Returns” would be the mot juste?

  45. 45.

    The Dangerman

    Reasonably happy about Warren’s performance; she might be the front-runner nationally. Utterly shocked at Biden’s numbers. WTF Iowa?

    I think there was general agreement in a post a day or 2 or 3 ago that Sanders would get his ass kicked by Trump.  Now, I’ve never listened to Buttigieg speak, so I could be missing something, but he might fare worse than Sanders against Trump in the General. No way, no how, going from Mayor of South Bend to President. Not gonna happen.

    Sigh. C’mon Democrats, this can’t be THAT hard … can it?

  46. 46.

    Jeffro

    @Cheryl Rofer: LOL

     

    I’m very excited at the prospect of Bernie & Buttigieg supporters ripping each other to shreds.  You know what would really SHOW THOSE GUYS, B&B partisans?  If you would throw your support behind Elizabeth Warren in the general.  THAT’LL show ’em!

  47. 47.

    Mike J

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Non-voters don’t vote.

    The idea of turning out non-voters sounds nice, but doesn’t really accomplish anything.  It’s identical to people who say we need to reach across the aisle and would spend everything running ads on Fox.

  48. 48.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Mike J:

    Heavens to Betsy!  Did you know that the head of the IA Dems worked for campaigns (not of anyone running this year) before?  Obviously a sign of cheating!  A person in politics used to work in politics!

    Which enemy of True Progressives did this running dog run with? Obama? The She-Beast of Chappequa?

  50. 50.

    david

    Only 62% in, but the SDE (State Delegate Equivalents) count:

    Buttigieg – 363
    Sanders – 338
    ———————–
    Warren – 246
    Biden – 210
    Klobuchar – 170
    ————————
    Yang – 14
    Steyer – 4
    Bloomberg – 0

    The rest had already dropped out (I think). At least, the pack is stringing out.

    The media has its ‘head-to-head’; and there’s three solid candidates not that
    far off that can still make an impact in the next few primaries.

    Yang and his band of online twittiots can now go away. Those trending hashtags were laughable.

    The two billionaires can find more pragmatic ways to spend
    their money to make a real difference in the campaign (hopefully).

    Five in the clown car is rather comfortable. Plenty of leg room. We even have enough
    seat belts for all. Let’s see where they go from here.

  51. 51.

    Baud

    I’m a little apprehensive about how mainstream the anti-caucus sentiment is.  I’m used to being outlier.

  52. 52.

    Jeffro

    Other points

    • C’mon Amy K, that was pretty much it…time to pack it in and endorse ABS
    • C’mon Steyer, that was pretty much it…you can keep rolling through Super Tuesday on the strength of ahem just your dollars ahem if you want, but it’s time (it’s actually past time) to start throwing your time and money into efforts that will combat the GOP disinformation/vote-suppression machine
    • C’mon all you other clown candidates…give it up and call for Dem unity…maybe Liz or Joe will give you a nice post in the administration someplace
  54. 54.

    dr. bloor

    @Baud: “I would never be the president of a country that would elect me” is going to be an awkward moment during your inauguration speech.

  55. 55.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Baud: Their demo was even better than their first album.  But they really sold out when they signed with Kill Rock Stars.

  56. 56.

    Mike J

    @david: Bloomberg was explicitly skipping the first four, and expects to run commercials for a looong time because candidates get price breaks.  As long as he’s aiming his fire at Trump and not Democrats I’m ok with it.

  57. 57.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    This also shows polling in Iowa sucks:

     

    Emerson had Wilmer beating Pete by 13 points

    Dailykos’s firm Civiqs also had Wilmer beating Pete by 13 points

    Monmouth had Wilmer beating Pete by 5 points

    Yougov also had Wilmer beating Pete by 5 points

     

    And all those people and bloggers who insisted polls weren’t measuring Wilmer’s base “enthusiasm” and therefore his projected margin of victory would be higher due to high turnout are now on the ash heap of history along with “Bully Pulpit” and “Revolution”

  58. 58.

    Geminid

    This is a setback for Biden, as he spent plenty of time in Iowa. His best argument is electability, and polling showed that electability is a high priority for Iowans- but they did not come out strongly for him. I like him, and I’m not writing him off yet, but I vote in Virginia on Super Tuesday and I’m thinking it will be Warren.

  59. 59.

    Caphilldcne

    @Cheryl Rofer: wow!  Love Capitol Hill Books altho it’s been awhile since I’ve been in. jammed with books. Something very elemental there. And yeah they’re snarky for sure.

  61. 61.

    Ruckus

    @John S.:

    If, and that’s a big if, they are thinking at all they would realize exactly what you are saying. However, they are for the most part, a cult. So there doesn’t have to be any there, there. There doesn’t have to reason and rational thought, cults actually have to work at that angle to be successful – scientology. They work at “educating” their followers, OK indoctrinating them completely, including teaching them that everything outside the cult is not only wrong but dangerous. bernie shouts because he needs to be heard over reality.

  63. 63.

    Jeffro

    @Geminid: I vote in VA too and I’ll be surprised – pleasantly, but still surprised – if Warren comes out on top here.  It sure won’t be anyone but her or Biden.  Fingers crossed.

  65. 65.

    Kelly

    @Mike J:

    Bloomberg was explicitly skipping the first four, and expects to run commercials for a looong time because candidates get price breaks.  As long as he’s aiming his fire at Trump and not Democrats I’m ok with it.

    https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1224776291167232000

    CBS reporter asked Bloomberg if he thinks “people are interested in seeing two billionaires fight out over Twitter?” Bloomberg replied,“Two billionaires?” “Who’s the second one?

  66. 66.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Geminid:

    His best argument is electability, and polling showed that electability is a high priority for Iowans

    true, but… then their top two picks were Sanders and Buttigieg

    one nugget that was floating around twitter on Sunday: Buttigieg was running the heaviest on TV in the last week

  67. 67.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    @Baud: That follows the pattern we’ve seen in the midterms, special elections, and off year elections in Virginia, were Dem turnout spikes in the suburbs, while lagging in rural districts.

  68. 68.

    Elizabelle

    @Kelly: CBS reporter asked Bloomberg if he thinks “people are interested in seeing two billionaires fight out over Twitter?” Bloomberg replied,“Two billionaires?” “Who’s the second one?

    Swish.  Good for Bloomberg.  He’s not wrong, either.

  69. 69.

    Omnes Omnibus

    An atypical state runs a undemocratic process and we are supposed to make judgments on 62% of the results?

  71. 71.

    sdhays

    @chopper: It won’t stop them from throwing blame that way, but this fiasco is definitely not the DNC’s fault. They told Iowa Democrats not to create the app, and they did it anyway.

  72. 72.

    Barbara

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I had a co-worker once upon a time who was really active in the movement to divest from apartheid South Africa. When I first met her (1987) she told me with great conviction that she thought that anti-apartheid would be a major campaign issue in 1988. I told her that having just moved from NC  I was pretty sure her optimism was misplaced. She told me that Cambridge was more representative of the country than “the South.”

    It is just a fact that it is easy to reinforce your own beliefs based on very little data and strongly shared convictions – in this case the belief that new voters would flock to the polls and thus reduce the need for Sanders to cultivate Clinton voters.

  74. 74.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Just turned on MSNBC long enough to hear that Limbaugh is sitting next to Melanie. trump doesn’t give a shit anymore, he’s going all-in. Like I said earlier about the the Medal Of Freedom, there was a time I thought stuff like this would blow back on him.

    Prove me wrong, America.

    Please

  75. 75.

    Kent

    My 13 year old daughter just now…unprovoked

    “OMG….Look at Melania!  It must be contagious.  She is turning orange too!”

  76. 76.

    sdhays

    @Baud: The only thing to do is demand that every state EXCEPT Iowa conduct caucuses in 2024. You have to maintain your brand.

  78. 78.

    Geminid

    Though not so obvious as with Biden, this is also a setback for Sanders. He has a specific electability argument- that through the “energy” of his adherents he can bring large numbers of alienated voters to the table. Well, if he can’t make this happen in the Iowa caucuses, where will it happen?

  80. 80.

    Jeffro

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: it didn’t work well in 2017, 2018, or 2019…he riles up his base and drives up their turnout, but drives ours even higher.

    So by all means, trumpov…

    …(you already know what I’m going to say)…

    …please proceed.

  81. 81.

    sdhays

    @Geminid: I thought I remembered Biden essentially conceding Iowa the day he announced his campaign. Coming in third is probably about where he expected to be. Biden’s plan, as I understand it, is to hang on in Iowa and New Hampshire, clean up in South Carolina (and Nevada? I don’t know what the polls are saying there), and ride into Super Tuesday on that strength.

  82. 82.

    danielx

    May have remarked on this before, but Bernie is reminding me more and more of never-to-be-sufficiently-accursed egotistical shithead Ralph Nader

  83. 83.

    sdhays

    @Geminid: I have no idea how the media will spin it, but going from 45% to less than 30% in Iowa is bad for Bernie. He easily lost to HRC in 2016, so he needs to outperform his 2016 performance, and he’s not.

  85. 85.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @danielx: Nader had more accomplishments before he decided to help elect the then worst president in history, and lacked Sanders’ bellowing, sanctimonious and (to me) baffling charisma

  86. 86.

    senyordave

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Just turned on MSNBC long enough to hear that Limbaugh is sitting next to Melanie.

    Trump and Melania might have nothing to do with each other, but I suspect that he is a jealous motherfucker.  And Melania is definitely not Rush’s type, for obvious reasons.

  88. 88.

    Kent

    Don’t know if anyone else is watching this (you aren’t missing anything) but this is the lowest energy monotone Trump I have ever seen.  It’s like he is sedated or something.

  94. 94.

    Marcopolo

    The biggest thing I am taking away from IA is the lack of turnout. It is really troubling. We had a decent sized field, candidates that represented the entire spectrum of the D electorate, huge investment by at least 5 campaigns to get folks to the polls; we have a fucking disaster of an R president with most polls showing public interest in the 2020 election is sky high and we only equalled the turnout from 2016. That is a problem.

    Folks on the blog can continue to say shit about the candidates they don’t like, it is a free country and I realize venting makes a person feel better but one of these folks is going to be our nominee and unless some of us start setting an example and talk up all the positive reasons why folks should be supporting our candidates we are going to look up, find out the election is a week away and we have poisoned some percentage of people who should be voting D against the eventual nominee.

    In an earlier thread there was a lot of discussion about EW & her lack of support among AA voters, who we all agree are a backbone of our voting bloc. Honestly, inspiring the support of the AA voting base isn’t just EW’s problem. Our AA presidential nominees (Cory & Kamala) didn’t appear to inspire support among the community. According to polling, Biden has the most support atm but then I think back to 2016 and HRC and her massive advantage with AA voters in the primary that did not seem to translate into votes in November. I’m pretty sure there are any number of bad actors out there trying to make sure that happens again this time around (basically poisoning low info minority voters against voting D).

    So when you want to take a swing at EW or Sanders or Buttigieg or Biden or whomever, keep in mind that those swings have lingering effects. I would so much rather y’all stay positive, talk about what about these candidates really gets you excited–or hell, what about the D agenda gets you really excited. We need to figure out the best arguments for getting our voters out to the polls in November. We need to start working on getting these folks excited now. It seems pretty fucking insurmountable to me atm–maybe that is because it is Feb–but we do have time. Maybe give it a thought or two?

    Just my two cents. And I realize almost all the campaigns have their arsehole supporters saying really stupid shit (but also bots & bad actors instigating and amplifying all of the crap too) about other candidates (and some campaigns seem to attract more of these effing fuckwads than others) but how about we try to do better?

  96. 96.

    Miss Bianca

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I am seeing pro BS memes on Indian lefty political Twitter. People who have no fucking clue about what they are talking about are beating their chests about how Bernie wuz robbed.

    On Indian Twitter, too? Really?

  98. 98.

    Miss Bianca

    @Barbara:

    Single digit datapoints from sui generis events should not be used for extrapolating general principles.

    Damn it, there you go bringing all that science-y logic shit into it again.

  100. 100.

    Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]

    @Kelly:

     Bloomberg replied,“Two billionaires?” “Who’s the second one?

    Well comrade Putin of course…..

  101. 101.

    Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]

    @danielx: You are not, by far, the only one to notice that.  Trying that two times in a row is an interesting hat trick though.

  102. 102.

    Marcopolo

    @Mnemosyne:Oh yeah, say whatever the hell you want to say about that fuckwad. I’ll be cheering from the back. Feel free to say whatever you want about Sarandon & West as well.

    And obviously, having a campaign that does seem to promote a strategy of slash & burn, my way or the highway crap makes it harder to stay positive vis a vis them but there you are. I’m supporting Warren but I do know a couple very decent folks who are behind Wilmer–it’s just his most odious supporters are also apparently his loudest.

  103. 103.

    burnspbesq

    @Marcopolo:

    his most odious supporters are also apparently his loudest.

    And it appears he likes it that way. How else to explain putting Sirota and Turner in senior leadership positions?

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