This forecast model is kinda insane, polling I would get but quantified media coverage???
This makes things much worse. https://t.co/h8y2APNq4Y
— veto players stan account (@Convolutedname) February 6, 2020
Right now Nate Silver seems to be posting stuff he’ll regret once he sobers up, so let’s look forward not back!
I think we can all agree that Iowa did not make the best argument for continuing the current jury-rigged system, and the Boston Globe smells blood in the water…
This year, we won’t be endorsing a Democratic presidential candidate ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Instead, we’re calling for the end of that first-in-the-nation primary. https://t.co/faRppUh0AB pic.twitter.com/sEgrygeYcQ
— Boston Globe Opinion (@GlobeOpinion) February 5, 2020
Editorial in @GlobeOpinion: "In the century since New Hampshire seized the role as the first-in-the-nation primary, much has changed. The demographic makeup of the nation has changed. Now it’s time for the way we nominate presidents to change with it." https://t.co/igKucjB2wD
— The Boston Globe (@BostonGlobe) February 5, 2020
Because the Bay State doesn’t vote till Super Tuesday, but every important city in NH is part of the Boston major media market*, endorsements from the Boston papers have always carried #FITN weight. Of course such endorsements aren’t worth what they were even a decade ago, but…
*Masshole sotto voce: Granite Staters free riding, as ever
On the Iowa-New Hampshire gentleman's agreement, NH Sec. of State Bill Garder was diplomatic in what was otherwise a victory lap of an interview.
But is IA's status endangered?
"It doesn't help," he told me.https://t.co/Qja8EbUjsF
— Jake Lahut (@JakeLahut) February 4, 2020
And here’s some notes from the next-up caucus state. Everything there is to be known about Nevada politics, I am told, Jon Ralston knows:
Nope. Not what they said. https://t.co/5HLJhSCnNz
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 4, 2020
NV Dems are being deliberate, may not use app at all.#WeMatter #WeAintIowa https://t.co/px2wBFycI1
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 4, 2020
As if on cue, Nevada secretary of state puts out latest NV voter reg numbers to show GOP getting shellacked by Dems and indies. pic.twitter.com/zAI5Pbz3ml
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 5, 2020
Our @meganmesserly had already started working on a caucus security piece last week, so she has lots of new information on what the Democrats here have been doing. It's one of the best party orgs in the country, but there are still some unanswered questions. https://t.co/RaOYWOZMHF
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 4, 2020
Victory fist-pump!
Oh good. I needed this reminder. https://t.co/HBzosBFBfW
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 5, 2020
Glad they included veteran reporter and Nevada dean Jon Ralston @RalstonReports in the line up. He is smart and intense and will ask tough questions. He will also correct candidates who pronounce Nevada wrong. https://t.co/jaN3kXNw1v
— John Anzalone (@JohnAnzo) February 5, 2020
Lapassionara
Sigh. My Twitter feed is now going into conspiracy theories about The Iowa voting process and how it robbed Wilmer. Please, let’s don’t do a replay of 2016. There are people who have a lot to lose in a second Trump maladministration.
Patricia Kayden
Jerzy Russian
There are more debates scheduled? Does Kaiser perform/cover medically induced comas? Asking for a friend…
NotMax
Doug Jones, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar (not all at once) will be on O’Donnell’s upcoming show tonight.
Jay
Keith P
@Jerzy Russian: CNN was running yet another town hall this evening. I can’t even watch CNN any more, since they’ve ground everything they do into the ground.
NickM
I’m not supporting anyone in the primaries and will vote and donate to our eventual nominee. But I’m starting to become terrified Wilmer will get the nomination, because I think there’s no way he can win. Does he help us win Pennsylvania? Arizona? Florida? Wisconsin? Michigan? Does he put Texas in play? I don’t see any of it. I think the non voters out there aren’t waiting for someone like him – I think they’re mostly idiots who don’t give enough of a shit to get off the couch and Wilmer isn’t going to change that deep seated stupidity. I do think he’ll drive my suburban neighbors away in droves. I eliminated all the Trump cultists from my FB feed, but I’m coming to feel almost as annoyed at the Wilmer people. It’s a cult and I don’t get it – all this passion for that guy? Ugh.
NotMax
@NickM
Not no way, not no how.
A Ghost To Most
My sons both informed me that they support Bernie.
Sigh. More work to do.
James E Powell
Note to Boston Globe Editorial Board: 19th century America is exactly what the Republican Party has been working to bring back ever since Reagan.
Kent
@Patricia Kayden: Val Demings is badass and my own biggest personal discovery of this whole impeachment process after Adam Schiff.
Why the fuck do we have 3 geriatric old white guys sucking up so much oxygen in the Democratic primary when we have so much real talent in the party is beyond me.
NickM
And I’m pretty far left. I’ve worked for two unions for the past 20 years. I know that Wilmer will be less popular with my (mostly white, overwhelmingly male) members than HRC.
Lyrebird
@NickM: Thanks for spelling that out. I opened comments just to thank Anne Laurie for once again finding SOMETHING GOOD in this mess, which helps… but I admit I was thinking similar things during those caucuses.
Frankly I am glad they didn’t lead to any crowning of a winner because it’s stupid (sorry nice Iowa Dem commenters!) to put so much weight on IA and NH. So it is not noble on my part, and yes I will vote for the nominee no matter what, but I was a little glad there was no big springboard for the top two in IA.
It’s almost never that I disagree with with Root writers, but when Ragnarok Lobster said white Dems only criticized BS after he reportedly put down EW’s chances, for me I can disagree. I was BS curious way back when until he got pushback about ignoring Afr. Am. concerns and then did nothing to go South and listen. Dunno if he even went until after the bloviating yam stole the election, and when he did, seems like all he did was talk at people and tell them how to do things. (Was it an MLK event? can’t remember.) But I moved solidly to the HRC camp in the primaries after he’d had plenty of feedback about his trouble garnering support from a constituency ya don’t win elections without, and he did nothing.
Thanks to anyone who read all the way through that,
and thanks again Anne Laurie!
bluehill
@NickM: As someone pointed out to me, the question is whether that matters given the alternative is to vote for Trump or, I guess, not vote at all.
Kelly
If I recall correctly New Hampshire has a law that it’s primary must be before any others. Always thought other states should pass laws that their primaries will be the same day as New Hampshire. I suppose our space/time continuum might implode but it’s worth the risk.
Kay
I have no idea what this means and I don’t want to know.
I found Iowa hugely depressing, but not for any of the reasons I’ve read- it depressed me because it feels like there’s no room for amateurs in this process anymore. It’s such a huge show, so overproduced, so insanely over-analyzed that I’m not sure ordinary people can play any role in it anymore, other than voting.
To me it was like screaming at pollworkers “why can’t you do your JOB?” and they’d be like, well, this isn’t my job- I do it one day a year with 6 hours training- I wasn’t aware I was producing a cable tv show here”.
I don’t know- maybe don’t base your billion dollar campaign industrial industry broadcast on 107 civic-minded volunteers who get an hour and a half of training.
LaméDuck
@A Ghost To Most: My son as well. I just don’t get it.
Jay
jl
” NV Dems are being deliberate, may not use app at all. ”
There shouldn’t be an app for that.
Paper and pen have been around for hundreds of years. The permit reliable forensics of anything looks funny or goes wrong. Very hard to hack in decentralized election systems. So, why not use them.
Sure, it’s outdated pre-industrial technology. But, so what. As the economist Dean Baker points out, arithmetic and the decimal system are pre-industrial technologies, thousands of years old, and they are still great tools to solve problems.
Kay
It’s like they’ve turned our actual election process into reality tv, except worse than reality tv, because in that they at least pay the participants. These people don’t even get paid and they generate days and days of free content for cable tv.
Kay
@jl:
Oh, I feel sorry for them and I wish them luck. I hope they know THEIR JOB is to efficiently and professionally produce content for the 15,000 campaign professionals who will be demanding numbers.
I hope they use a fucking abacus and it takes 9 days.
MisterForkbeard
@LaméDuck: I know a fairly senior and very intelligent VP at my company who is passionately pro Bernie. I had a talk with him a few days ago, and I think it’s a combination of three things:
1. Not knowing that Bernie has been on the wrong side of several issues, including things he has attacked opponents for.
2. Wanting someone who will push for and make big changes
3. Not understanding that Bernie and any other president cant will M4A and other progressive priorities into being. Doesnt understand the process and basically think that if we get 50 senators and the president we’ll have M4A with Bernie but no other candidate will care or make it happen.
I explained some of the problems with each of these and he’s less enthusiastic, bit still thinks someone other than Bernie would be a missed opportunity.
jl
As for reforming primaries, I like the proposal of one Mr. John G. Cole, to have a rotating order of states. Every cycle a randomly selected group of states would go first, another second, and so forth. The only thing I would add is that the sampling should be stratified to get a reasonable selection of states. Don’t want all big ones, or all small ones to go first, need to have some regional balance etc.
I don’t care so much about forcing all states to have primaries. I think states need to have some latitude to follow their traditions, do things consistent with their political culture. The Iowa caucuses are very irritating because that clunky mess is always the very first thing. In the Cole scheme, no single state would ever be ‘first’.
Some minimum standards should be set for primaries and caucuses. All must have paper trails and verifiable. NO GOD DAMNED sketchy apps, built at the last minute and barely tested at all. All those problems can be solved by a simple NO GOD DAMNED APS! rule. Count them by hand in open publicly observable system. Or have a machine count of readable paper ballets that can be hand checked if anything looks funny. I’d rather wait and get it right and trusted.
All this instantaneous results crap also means more insufferable instant spinning and punditizing and BS in the media anyway. If they had to wait a few days or a week, then they might pass the time reporting, you know… actual news. OK, call me crazy, but I thought that was their only job.
anarchoRex
@NickM: well, he’s the most popular candidate with Latinos, so he’s probably your guy for Texas. But, like any other opinion about who could win where, I’m just philosophizing. Outside of extremely unreliable polling, I haven’t seen any arguments for the electability of the other candidates. They’re all within the margin of error, so I figure they’ve all got a roughly similar chance of winning. People should just support who they want, and vote/volunteer for whoever wins the nomination in the general. There’s no point in prognosticating about any candidates chances in any particular place.
Jay
@LaméDuck:
it’s not rocket science. Wilmer promises Revolutionary change to a rigged system.
Everyone else is proposing to make the system slightly less rigged.
The Kids these Days have never experienced living in the system when it was slightly less rigged and don’t believe in any promises of “change”. They have “Occupy” to remind them that change is not possible.
Mr. Kite
Schiff isn’t done. He just made criminal referral of Eric Prince to the DoJ. Lying to Congress. Documented. I hope it will ruin Barr’s lunch. I’m sure the coming republican outrage in support of lying will be amusing.
Schiff, man, back to work. I hope he treats his staff well.
jl
One point in favor of paying attention to unrepresentative (ahem… overly White) states is that, sadly, unrepresentative states are over represented in the electoral college. So, need to pay adequate attention to them. We’ll have to put with that nonsense until the US can fix the nightmare that the electoral college has become, and it is a nightmare for several reasons, not just over representation of unrepresentative states. The faithless elector problem will be a danger in future close elections, which are likely.
But, dammitall, there are other unrepresentative (ahem… overly White) states than Iowa. So no reason they should always be first.
Jay
Kay
@jl:
I think the Nate Silver tweet is hysterical. They ate their own tail. They are now going to assign percentages to media coverage. The same media coverage they generate.
It’s this giant beast that needs feeding. It’s gobbling up the whole thing. My youngest is a Bernie supporter. First presidential vote. I feel like telling him “don’t get involved in this- you’re not qualified”
Jay
@Mr. Kite:
Schiff made the referral months ago.
disBarr and Dumph’s DOJ, after sitting on it for months, finally got around to sending him a “we will look into that” ( maybe sometime) note.
Kent
@MisterForkbeard: This is it EXACTLY.
This country is just full to the brim of relatively low-information voters who think that vote for the candidate actually means a vote to implement their platform and plans.
That’s actually how Trump got elected too.
jl
@Jay: Brooks had descended into patent and ridiculous, and ruthless lying to peddle his partisan BS, or he is completely incompetent and lazy beyond imagination. Tragically neither is a credit to his sterling good as gold Character!
Trump has been finding pretexts to storm out of any bipartisan meeting that threatens to hold him accountable for any of the dishonest false populist/progressive sounding promises he made during his campaign.
Trumps fake tantrums make the news because the corporate media thinks they are fun and profitable to cover. And there is always the promise of a video, photo or audio, of a grown man who runs a whole country acting in a way beneath the dignity of a very spoiled toddler.
jl
@Kay: I’m with other commenters, who admit that they can’t figure out what Silver is talking about, and almost certain it isn’t worth the time to figure out.
Mallard Filmore
@Mr. Kite:
I read somewhere today that the referral was done months ago, and the DOJ just now jumped on it, even apologizing for the delay.
[edit: add link] https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/30/adam-schiff-criminal-referral-erik-prince-1292917
Jay
@jl:
now that the Senate ReThugs have crowned Dumph “President for Life”, Brooks is just the first of many who will be standing in line to suck on Dumph’s “mushroom”.
Mr. Kite
@Jay: oh damn you’re right. So many scandals.
Amir Khalid
@Kelly:
I wonder about that: how is it constitutional for New Hampshire to make a law that clearly affects other states, even if indirectly?
Kay
I’m going to start saying this to all people who are younger than me. “I have been an AMERICAN longer than you!”
Adam L Silverman
@Jerzy Russian: There’s one Friday. Last one before New Hampshire.
Jay
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
It is in no way applicable to nor binding on any other states. It applies only to the scheduling of the election calendar in NH in relation to that of other states.
Jay
@Amir Khalid:
Elections and voter rights are States Rights under the Constitution.
chris
Years ago in one of his many (many!) anti-Brooks rants Driftglass called him a Republican testicle cozy. Glad to see it still fits.
Adam L Silverman
@NickM: His argument, and that of his surrogates, going into Iowa was that only Senator Sanders could increase turnout because only Senator Sanders could increase the size of the electorate. Neither happened in Iowa on Monday. It will not happen anywhere else, except, perhaps, South Carolina.
Adam L Silverman
@A Ghost To Most: Let us know what happens when you’ve informed both your sons that you have changed your will accordingly.
jl
I guess the fact that Bloomberg’s Grandpa Simpson affect and attitude that makes him seem even older than he is, is an electability argument, then
Edit: Bob Dole is older and been an American longer than anyone in the race. Compared to Bloomberg, at least Dole has a sense of humor.
Kay
I’m old enough to remember when not getting impeached was the standard. Now it’s “beat the rap”
All of you out there who have not been indicted? awesome job! You are AMAZING.
sdhays
I think it might be reasonable for the first group of states to be small/weighted toward cheaper media markets as long as they produce a diverse mix. But otherwise, I totally agree.
Villago Delenda Est
Points one and two: Fuck Iowa, fuck New Hampshire.
Point three: fuck the MSM with radioactive rusty chainsaws.
Kelly
@Amir Khalid: My knowledge is limited. As I understand it states can run primary elections however they want however the parties get to make the rules on how and how many delegates are seated. It’s a bit of a kludge.
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: I’ve taught statistics for political science and criminology grad students and I’m not completely sure either. I think what he’s describing is how they weighted the different information in the model.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: There shouldn’t have been an app at all, let alone one this poorly designed, developed, and executed.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kay: You’ll probably get “OK Boomer” as a response.
rekoob
Perhaps a way to address this would be to say that all pre-primary activities are no longer “caucuses”, but “straw polls”, in other words, an indication of sentiment, non-binding and irrelevant to the delegate count. The New Hampshire primary can be the first, in that it starts with Dixville Notch at Midnight Eastern, but the remainder of the primaries (as many states as you wish, following Mr. Cole’s ideas and others) start 10 to 12 seconds after that. If that’s not fine enough, we can get into femtoseconds in subsequent years.
Of course, there should be ample time to vote early by mail or in person in the primaries, as appropriate.
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
I canvassed a very nice middle aged lady once and she told me “oh, I just vote for the Democrat. I generally agree with that side and it’s easier”
She looks smarter every year.
Jay
Kelly
@sdhays:
Are there any small, cheaper media markets that are diverse? Hawaii comes to mind. Wouldn’t the media love to have February expense account trips to Hawaii every 4 years?
Jinchi
The funny thing is that Bloomberg (and Bernie and Biden) is actually too old to be a Boomer himself. What did they call the previous generation anyway?
…. Turns out it was the “Silent Generation” that doesn’t really fit Bernie and Bloomberg.
anarchoRex
@Kelly: New Mexico would fit the bill well.
Jay
Kelly
@A Ghost To Most: My Mom voted for Bernie in 2016. She’s five years older than Bernie and has been making up her own mind for a long time.
Ken
@Adam L Silverman: I think a few hundred people writing in “Mitt Romney” for the Republican nominee in New Hampshire would be amusing. It’s too much of a fantasy to imagine it snowballing, I suppose.
Jay
Kelly
@anarchoRex: Also seems like a nice February destination.
Martin
@Kay: I undestand what Nate is trying to do. I’m not sure I agree with it, though.
Iowa matters not because of the 41 out of 4,000 delegates that it offers, but because it’s the first actual result from the electorate and that result, regardless of how minor in quantitative impact, signals some sort of viability that carries in terms of media exposure, fundraising, and so on.
So Nate is trying to game out some kind of Iowa bump above that of what those 41 delegates might tell us. I mean, the 5th contest is Alabama and nobody is going to fucking care about the result there, despite the fact that its 52 delegates on the line. And that’s because Alabama is the same day as California and Texas and North Carolina, and winning those will matter, and winning Alabama won’t.
I mean, look at how much energy is being devoted right now to whether Sanders could pull up enough state delegates to overtake Pete, even though it will result in no difference in delegates. Somehow the crown of ‘won Iowa’ is perceived to be of such value to fight for it. Nate is trying to price that value in.
I think it’s a mistake. Not because I don’t believe there is outsized benefit to winning an early state, but because it can’t be quantified, and it’s just one of a zillion such things that we don’t try to price in – Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama, etc. Yeah, Iowas delegates do have more predictive value than anyone else’s simply because Iowa can knock candidates out decisively, but at the same time, this process is so fucked up not just because of the uncertainty of the outcome and the effect of the news cycle, but because of impeachment, etc. So, just shrug your shoulders and move on.
Jay
NotMax
@anarchoRex</a.
In an ideal world New Jersey, demographically and geographically, would be at the top of my list. Economically and racially diverse, a mix of urban, exurban and rural, small enough to criss-cross multiple times for candidates
In the real world the cost of its media markets is untenably prohibitive. A pool of unfettered subsidies provided by the party might serve to temper that, but such a mechanism is purely theoretical.
anarchoRex
@Kelly: It is! I live across the state line and we just got some nice snow on the ground today. White mountains are certainly more agreeable that the brown ones we have during most of the winter. But, yeah, the winter weather here is generally pretty agreeable.
Jay
NotMax
Oopsie. Fix.
@anarchoRex
In an ideal world New Jersey, demographically and geographically, would be at the top of my list. Economically and racially diverse, a mix of urban, exurban and rural, small enough to criss-cross multiple times for candidates
In the real world the cost of its media markets is untenably prohibitive. A pool of unfettered subsidies provided by the party might serve to temper that, but such a mechanism is purely theoretical.
anarchoRex
@NotMax: the cost of the media market is a big oof for me. It’s the same reason I don’t support a national primary: it gives an enormous advatange to políticos with lots of money/name recognition.
Ken
@Jay: Nice. Some would have ended with “And there is. Just one.” Leaving it unspoken is better.
Jay
Frankensteinbeck
@Jay:
Reading the article, it sounds like the National Archive has no say in the matter and it’s instead the Trump Administration never giving them stuff in the first place.
NotMax
@Martin
Silver’s relevance and credibility has been disappearing faster than a Creamsicle on the 4th of July. He was clever in manipulating the still nascent at the time internet for self-promotion, I’ll give him that.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman
rekoob
@NotMax: Further to my comment above, if we were successful in creating an environment where Dixville Notch could be no more than a starting pistol, perhaps there’s an equivalent precinct in Hawaii that could serve as a counterbalance. Again, Midnight Eastern, this time of year, is 19.00 (7p) in our 50th state.
kindness
Who thinks caucuses are better than actual votes? I sure don’t. I can’t imagine having to go somewhere and spend 4 or more hours to ‘cast a vote’.
NotMax
@AnarchRex
Pure spitballing.
One way to counter that is to have a firm and enforceable party rule that a place on the ballot shall be granted only to candidates whose media $$ are spent (and confirmed by audit) at outlets whose entire physical presence is within the state borders.
Again, entirely theoretical.
NotMax
@rekoob
Wesley Clark won Dixville Notch.
’nuff said, methinks.
Kent
@anarchoRex: New Mexico would be my first choice too. Paired with another swing-y smaller state with a diverse population. Maybe North Carolina? Not really that small but as a border state with a fast changing population it should be a serious Dem target. 22% African American and 10% Hispanic. We could do worse than focus a bunch of Dem efforts on North Carolina.
NotMax
@rekoob
Ain’t about to happen but I’d be ecstatic if primaries were extended over three days (say, Saturday, Sunday, Monday) to accommodate a greater pool of potential voters.
anarchoRex
@NotMax: I’m not sure how much that would help? I know pretty much zero about the NJ media market except that it’s expensive. Also the auditing and stuff sound pretty onerous. What if NY was Super Tuesday, would we be disbarring candidates from advertising in a state that would vote just a few weeks later?
The real solution, imh(umble)o, is to either cap total spending per candidate per month, or just move to exclusively publicly funded primaries. The system in Seattle seems interesting, and doesn’t appear to have screwed up their elections.
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: I’m starting to see other stories about how small amount of votes were switched from Bernie to Deval Patrick. There were a couple of other cases of this happening – it’s been corrected in each case found and it looks like somebody consistently fucked up reading two columns, but:
Bernie temporarily lost votes, so it’s all part of a giant conspiracy.
ETA: There’s a dailykos article about it which is filled with lots of suspicious words but basically comes down to “it was a mistake and its been fixed”: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/5/1916977/-Iowa-Chaos-Sanders-votes-swapped-for-Patrick-Warren-votes-for-Steyer?utm_campaign=trending
NotMax
@Kent
In square miles. North Carolina is smaller than Iowa. So is Pennsylvania, which would serve as well, except for, again, the media costs,.
anarchoRex
@Kent: sorry, confused by your wording, did you mean to call NC a border state?
Kent
I meant between North and South, Blue USA and Red USA. etc.
Strategically picking a really red state like Mississippi or a really blue state like Oregon doesn’t really accomplish much on the ground. But shipping a whole bunch of candidates and media attention to a swing state to criss cross and message can only help the Democratic project.
anarchoRex
@NotMax: Don’t most primaries have early voting? In Texas you get like 2+ weeks to go to the polls.
anarchoRex
@Kent: Gotcha
NotMax
@anarchoRex
Just throwing out ideas, not necessarily solutions. The sheer overweening weight of media monetary cost is a bugaboo not easily addressed, yet (IMHO) vital to address.
Villago Delenda Est
And here we have the root of the problem. Media buys for political campaigns. The media distort the process just by being there, and of course they have no problem with it, because it’s good for their bottom line.
Ban all television, radio, and cable advertising for all elections.
Jay
NotMax
@anarchoRex
It’s not the same thing, especially for any who want (or rely on) the most up to the minute information and data before casting a vote.
Jay
joel hanes
@Lyrebird:
it’s stupid (sorry nice Iowa Dem commenters!) to put so much weight on IA
No apology needed. This expatriate Iowan agrees with you completely.
Amir Khalid
@NotMax:
Suppose another state passed a law that its primary must precede New Hampshire’s. What then?
rekoob
@NotMax: Yes. In 2004. I was a supporter but ultimately voted happily for Kerry.
I believe we may have a chance to balance (not in this cycle) a northeastern primary with an extreme western primary. That was where I was heading, for what it’s worth.
Juju
@NotMax: I donated to two out of three of Lawrence O’Donnell’s senator guests tonight. It makes me happy.
Martin
@Amir Khalid: That’s what I think California should do. Pass a law that we must go before any other state primary or caucus. Let the courts nullify these laws once and for all.
The DNC can always put their foot down as well. They don’t have to agree to this lunacy.
NotMaxn
@Amir Khalid
Does the term Hobson’s choice ring a bell?
Realistically, a compact would likely be reached to have them held on the same day, possibly with staggered times of being in operation.
Kelly
@Kent:
How about the first state primaries are held in the states with the closest results in the previous general?
Peale
@Jay: my guess is that they’ll mysteriously start putting X in my picture again when I try to get back in the country. Oh well. I’m not moving. I’m not going to call Albany to demand they throw people under the bus. I’ve got 24 months left before I have to renew anyway. Fuck em.
joel hanes
If you’re a Warren supporter, now would be a good time to contribute.
Apparently she’s cancelling ads because her fundraising has fallen behind in the wake of the Iowa caucus (partial) results.
God damn Chuck Todd for “raise your hand for M4A”. God how I wish she hadn’t raised her hand.
This is beginning to feel like the year that my father and younger sister both died, and I lost my job.
Marcopolo
So I understand what Silver is talking about: weighing the +/- media coverage the top 4 candidates are receiving from what happened in Iowa leading into NH. I honestly have no particular idea what a good way for quantifying this information might be & just looking at # of stories & headlines or whatever seems ripe for some kind of observer bias. That being said, it is pretty well documented that a lot of folks wait until the last minute before an election to figure out who to vote for and they are influenced (once again I have no idea how much maybe folks who’ve studied it do) by what they are reading/hearing just before they vote.
To that end, Buttigieg has received the most positive press coverage. Sanders has received a little. Warren, who overperformed expectations has been absent from most coverage. Biden has received the least favorable coverage but probably skated a little (i.e. it could have been worse) because of the fiasco/delay in releasing the results.
Finally, remember, there were 3 data points that are being released about Iowa: 1) first vote in the room; 2) reapportioned vote after figuring out precinct level viability; 3) how many delegates all that translated out to. (all in percents here) For the first data point: Sanders (24.3), Buttigieg (21.6), Warren (18.6), Biden (14.9), Klobuchar (12.6). Second data point: BS (26.1), PB 25.6), EW (20.4), JB (13.7), AK (11.9). Third data point: PB (26.7), BS (25.4), EW (18.3), JB (15.9), AK (12.1). Buttigieg obviously had the best precinct level strategy for both stage 2 and earning delegate equivalents–something to do with concentrating on rural precinct that overweight delegates vs how many show for the caucus (delegate equivalencies are apportioned to precincts based on actual voting in the Presidential election, in rural areas I guess a smaller percentage of the presidential vote base show up for caucuses).
Finally, the Sanders folks are unhappy because they are not getting much credit at all for having the most initial supporters. “The Media” instead seems to be fixated on who won the most delegates, even if the split (caveat these are the numbers from when 65% of the Iowa data was released so they might be a little different now) is Buttigieg 14/ Sanders 12/Warren 10/Biden 4/Klobuchar 1. It all seems totally ridiculous to me. This accounts for about 1% of the total delegates, as far as I see it there is really not a lot of difference between the top 3, but as Kay pointed out above our media has invested tens or hundreds of millions of dollars into hyping up “the primary” and they will wring every stupid bit of coverage they can out of it no matter how unhealthy it winds up being for our democratic processes.
Link:
NotMax
Sorry about that extraneous n in the nym.
@NotMaxn
Alternatively, the national party could declare one strictly a beauty contest with no official impact on credentialed delegates to the convention.
Peale
@Villago Delenda Est: so then all the ads will be purchased by dark money super pacs and industry groups. The media is what the media is. The primaries are also the time to practice advertising messages.
Jay
Peale
@Marcopolo: I pity the delegate Pete selects to be number .7. Poor schmuck will need to decide which limb to lop off that day. The longer the convention drags on, the less likely the doctors will be able to reattach it.
Marcopolo
@Marcopolo: So this is what happens when you post while there is still information being released–things looked to be just about tied between BS & PB now with very very little left out there (but the initial media impression that will stick with a lot of folks is PB won):
NotMax
@<a href="https://balloon-juice.com/2020/02/05/election-year-open-thread-looking-beyond-iowa/#comment-7572825" Villago Delenda Est
Sticking with theoreticals. Suppose the FCC put in place a regulation that time MUST be offered in all markets at no more cost than the average for comparable time over the preceding year in the smallest X number of markets.
Mary G
The barbarians at CPB have struck again:
They tore apart his precious custom-made musical instrument and didn’t even tell him. Just left a note in the case. I HATE that we are represented by these thugs.
MomSense
The only good news out of this Fyre Caucus is that Bernie totally manipulated the rules because he thought it would benefit him. He never really stopped running for president. His campaign spent a fortune and he did better when it was”rigged”. He lost ground compared with 2016.
As my good friend in Iowa explained, Pete was a better tactician. He organized in rural precincts and ran up the delegate count in places where you get a delegate even though there aren’t many people. Bernie thought the youngs would turn out for him and they decided to skip the revolution. He basically disproved his most compelling case – that he could inspire increased participation not only to win the election but to advocate for his policies once in office.
And how lucky is Biden! A win in Iowa doesn’t give you many delegates but it can give you major momentum. Nobody got the boost because the story was the reporting fiasco. Then it was the state of the union and finally Nancy had the last word by tearing it up.
Martin
I think we should just save ourselves the effort, offer the Presidency to the richest qualified person in America, and let them accept or decline it. Then work down the list until we get a taker.
It’s obvious that things like qualification and character don’t actually matter anyway.
Maybe add some entertainment to it – the first person who accepts can be challenged by the next person on the list in the area of their choosing, live on TV. It can be anything – yacht racing, whistling, Friends trivia. If the challenger wins, they become the presumptive President and the next person on the list gets to challenge. The presidency goes to the first person to beat a challenger.
NotMaxn
@Martin
Soros/Baud MMXX!
:)
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: Can the challenge be a duel?
anarchoRex
@MomSense:
I mean he’s going to win Iowa because his campaign organized refugee meat packing plant workers that had never voted before, but go off.
ETA: Also hilarious that Pete gets a kudos from you for potentially winning (he won’t) Iowa’s Electoral
CollegeCaucus, but loses the popular vote.Redshift
@Jay: It’s more than that. The younger generation got screwed by the financial crash and by the “moderates” who limited the response because they were Very Concerned about deficits at exactly the time we should have been running massive deficits. (Fake concern from Republicans, on top of that.)
I don’t remember the exact figure, but people who started their working lives during that period are going to have significantly lower income over their entire lives because of all that.
If I had been dealt that, if probably want someone who promised to burn it all down and be distrustful of “serious” people who said it wasn’t practical, too.
None of that means I believe Bernie is capable of making it happen in our system, but I understand the appeal.
Martin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: That’s a good question.
I’m going to say no, nothing illegal. So, MMA or kickboxing yes, but duel no.
anarchoRex
@Martin: killjoy
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: Well, that’s no fun.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@joel hanes: she pulled ads in Nevada and South Carolina. She wasn’t going to win either states, so It was a good idea to deploy the 375K in more promising states.
anarchoRex
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: If your theory is correct, I don’t understand why her campaign thinks she still has a viable chance? If she’s not going to win in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina, why do they think she’ll do any better down the stretch? At least Bloomberg can buy airtime ’til the cows come home, but I can’t see what her angle would be. Hold on until a brokered convention and hope to be a compromise pick? If she thinks that she’ll be able to coalesce the “anyone but Bernie” vote before then, that’s wishful thinking. It doesn’t look like any of the top five + Blooomberg are dropping out until after Super Tuesday, at which point it’s probably too late for a One Centrist to Rule Them All strategy to work.
Mike J
@Martin: Yacht racing is an excellent way to choose leaders.
prostratedragon
Toumani Diabaté and Ballake Sissoko, koras: “Bafoulabe”
Mart
Assume already mentioned, but WTF IA not only fucking up software but weighing delegate appropriation. And Mayor Pete winning in counties with 3,500 Democrats and 35,000 magats, that model will not look so hot Super Tuesday. Favorite news clip was a woman who voted for Mayor Pete learning he is gay, being shocked; and saying oh no, we don’t want that in the White House.
joel hanes
@Mart:
IA not only fucking up software but weighing delegate appropriation
The Iowa caucus delegate apportionment rules were hammered out specifically to please the Sanders contingent, in an attempt to keep them in the Democratic fold, and were developed with extensive input from the Sanders people, who agreed to them.
joel hanes
@anarchoRex:
Anything could happen between now and the convention.
The king could die. It’s even possible that the horse might learn to sing.
Jay
@Redshift:
technically, I’m a Boomer. But I grok the youths. I’m a Volker Recession boomer. I graduated in time to spend 6 years of my life working 3, minimum wage jobs at the same time, sleeping on busses between jobs.
On the other hand, always been a “tactical” voter, choosing “less bad” over “purity no hope”.
the Global Financial Meltdown and Corporate White Collar Crime, ate my pension, so my “Retirement Plan” is to die working with the hope, it’s an industrial accident, so my wife has some hope.
I understand both the “revolution” and “bern it all down” sentiment.
Sadly, it’s just that, a sentiment.
Jay
Jay
@joel hanes:
????
Jay
joel hanes
@Mart:
On reflection, it occurs to me that you may be referring to the human tabulation error, in which manually entered values in a spreadsheet were transposed until a Sanders person noticed, at which point the tally was made right.
If so, I owe you an apology.
Jay
https://www.instagram.com/p/B8KVIWpnDfl/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_mid=873B08A7-1A8E-4A16-B664-05895D950FE7
Excellent trolling,……..
Steeplejack (phone)
Test . . .
rikyrah
@Kay:
Just do what they have done in the past. Take their time?
rikyrah
@Kay:
Nate can’t explain that nonsense. Which is why he never should have posted it??
opiejeanne
@Jay: I’m sorry but I’m going to have to feed you some pie. Your posts are depressing me beyond what is healthy for me. I have struggled with depression and don’t need more.
I’ll stop feeding you pie now and then to see if I’m feeling better and can handle it.
opiejeanne
@rikyrah: Agreed.
Bruce K
This may sound like it’s coming out of left field, but …
My girlfriend and i, in maintaining our long-distance relationship, have a habit of using quotes from somewhere as email subject lines. Sometimes it’ll be something appropriate to the thing the email’s about, sometimes it’ll just be amusing. I save quotes in my drafts folder for the right time.
Today, I ran across a good one, very appropriate to the day after the GOP completed its whitewash:
“You lost today, kid. But that doesn’t mean you have to like it.”
We lost yesterday, and by we I mean the United States of America. We lost a major battle against fascism and authoritarianism and kleptocracy.
But we haven’t yet lost the war.
Sab
@Bruce K: I like that. Thanks.
barb 2
@Mike J:
Sailboat races depends on wind and skill plus a good anchor. Wind blowing and tide going out – winner deployed anchor to stop drift.
Know when to hold and know when to redeploy resources.
Spending so much damned money and time in Iowa is dumb.
Warren is playing the long game. I’m sad she spent so much of her time in Iowa. Harris got blown out of the game in part because of Iowa. Cory Booker – another voice lost.
Loved the link ofv2arren taking a bat to Trump and thanking her dog Bailey. That dog has a magnificent tail and smile! Hell I’d vote for Bailey he’d be a better Prez than Trump has been.
I know Sanders gamed the 2016 WA state caucuses as well as other states and they are expecting to play the same games in NV. They threw chairs and stuff in NV 2016 because they didn’t get their way.
Sanders doesn’t have a chance of winning on the National level – he isn’t a Democrat he is a Socialist. Out in rural, uneducated America Socialist equals Communist. We jackals know what the difference is but the Evangelicals are already working up their mega church congregations about Saunder’s communist leanings. I’ve heard the BS from relatives on the subject in 2016 and they are ranting on again this year. Thankfully I’ve been too I’ll to travel. How does one teach relatives critical thinking? How do you tell people they are being used?
How do Evamgelicals square this with Trump’s devotion to Putin- who knows. One would think their minds would blow due to cognitive dissonance! Trump continues his rants about the DNC servers and his cult followers repeat what he says. They don’t listen to themselves do they?
Try telling a religious ding dong preaching in the waiting room that Trump is the anti-christ! “Haven’t you heard that Trump is the anti-christ?”
anarchoRex
@barb 2: OMG, man, nobody ever threw a fucking chair, look it up.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/did-sanders-supporters-throw-chairs-at-nevada-democratic-convention/
JC, and people accuse Bernie supporters of making shit up…
Betsy
@NotMax: The Internet was nascent in 2007??
Silver was good and fascinating in 2007-2008. Things went south directly after he monetized his blog to the NYT.
Betsy
@Kent: North Carolina would be a good state to focus on early (if we have to have the ridiculous horse-race sequence of primaries, for some inane reason). But it’s a large state — 9th most populous in the nation. And the northerners moving here are not necessarily making it more liberal. It’s been a moderate / purple / swing state for a very long time.
A lot of northerners move here because they think their racism and will fit right in. Most of our right-wing legislative leaders are from the northeast. The rightwingers who took over the Wake County school system — the nation’s largest high-performing school system, a national model for socioeconomic integration— and tried to start segregating it again were transplants.
With early German settlements, not much of a plantation economy, and half pro-Union sentiment during the War of the Rebellion, North Carolina has had a long history that led to some (not startling, but SOME) moderately progressive policies towards working people , education, and on race in the mid-20th century. We’ve gone way backwards. I get tired of hearing that it’s northerners who are bringing us up to speed. A lot of them of are Republicans or Copperhead types.
SFAW
Thanks. I needed a good chuckle.
Marcopolo
@anarchoRex: Dead thread and all, and yet…with the caveat that yes no chairs were hurled (as I recall one, only one, was picked up and brandished at no one in particular) at the NV state convention, I watched the proceedings & the Sanders folks made complete and utter asses out of themselves there.
Also, all that being said, I could understand Sanderssupporters who are currently pissed off at how this year’s IA caucus results are being covered. To bad there always seems to be someone claiming it is a vast anti-Sanders conspiracy instead of just people naturally screwing up.