Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

No one could have predicted…

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

In after Baud. Damn.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / Return of the Coronavirus Update – Tuesday/Wednesday

Return of the Coronavirus Update – Tuesday/Wednesday

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Notes from a couple of commentors in Asia:

Ninedragonspot – February 4, 2020 at 2:47 am
Coronavirus Update from the past couple of hours:

2800 medical workers in Hong Kong go on strike, demanding the government close the border with Mainland China.

Taizhou and parts of Hangzhou (c 9 million people) join Wenzhou and Ningbo on lockdown. Each family can send one member out every two days to collect supplies, everyone else has to stay home. These four cities have about 20 million people and are located in Zhejiang province, not Hubei. Will this happen to Shanghai?

Macau is closing its casinos for half a month.

Taiwan is refusing entry to all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, except under special circumstances.

Raralex — February 4, 2020 at 4:34

@Ninedragonspot: Singapore-based commenter and long-time lurker here. Singapore was probably ahead of Taiwan, but yes, similar. They barred entry to mainland travelers last week with a 14-day quarantine. 18 cases here so far, all people who had been in Wuhan or Hubei province. All quarantined and recovering.

As you might expect, in a place where memories of SARS are very fresh and with a fully competent, well resourced, and empowered government, the response has been aggressive and efficient. At the same time, clear and frequent communication and thoughtful messaging from the PM down on treating people with decency and kindness, and avoiding misinformation. Other than proximity, which probably means less and less, I’d rather be here than almost anywhere (including the US, where Trump can be guaranteed to screw it up).


Reader Interactions

20Comments

  2. 2.

    Cermet

    Well, not so sure the death rate is really higher than the flu; why? Because there have been no reports to date of infants getting it and then dying as a result – none. That tells me that it is far more likely that many orders of magnitude people have had this flu but never got sick enough to warrant a hospital trip – likely a few million. In which case, this flu kills far lower numbers of people compared to the common flu. Unless this is a VERY strange illness that only targets older people (who, like infants, also have a weaker immune system) but for some, as yet unknown reason, not infants. As such, I do not think this illness is as deadly as current estimates claim (a number based only on known cases that are so sick they are admitted to a hospital.)

    Like West Nile – which was vastly over-hyped as dangerous to healthy people in North America – this illness may also be over-hyped due to the population under attack (which has a huge third world level population, still) combined with incorrect knowledge of the number of real cases equals an incorrect belief in the danger for this flu.

    While speculation still on my part, the fact that infants aren’t dying is hard to fathom if this flu is really deadlier than the common flu.

  7. 7.

    WereBear

    I still fear an outbreak like the 1918 Pandemic: which targeted the young and healthy, whose immune systems overreacted.

    In the meantime, I’ve got Mr WereBear, who hasn’t recovered from last year’s virus.

  10. 10.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @JPL: Don’t take my word for it. As with most things that don’t directly effect me, in one ear and out the other. I’ll be very proud of myself if I got the locale correct.

  11. 11.

    Andrew Johnston

    So I’m at a crossroads here. Nothing is getting back to normal, and if anything people are a lot more paranoid here. The start date for my university keeps getting pushed back – latest news is it might not be until next month. That’s a problem for a few reasons, not the least of which is that my residence permit (which was already going to last just long enough to get through to the summer break) is on a time limit and I don’t know how long I can extend it. Against my own desires, I might have to head back to Kansas, which leaves me without a job and in the same predicament I was in before coming out here.

    In theory, I can wait it out. There aren’t so many people around here, which is actually nice for a change, and while the hour back-and-forth to get groceries is a pain it’s at least tolerable. Even so, I have to make some mid- and long-term plans here. People are getting so paranoid that I’m thinking even the start of March might be wishful thinking.

  12. 12.

    Andrew Johnston

    @Cermet: 2019-nCoV is not influenza. It’s coronavirus, which is a different pathogen affecting the body in a different way.

    I was letting that slide in the many, many times I’ve seen people talk about “an outbreak of the flu” in comment threads and such, but hearing so many people make such a basic error and then carry on like they’re fucking public health experts is really straining the bonds that keep my inner pedantic asshole tied down.

  13. 13.

    Nelle

    @Andrew Johnston: I’m not keeping up, so forgive me for asking, but where are you now and where is your Kansas base?

    My son has a bad case of influenza and hopes the Tamiflu starts working today.  My DIL has a big project due today, so we picked up the girls (2 1/2 and 1 next week) from daycare yesterday and will take them back to daycare today.  Fingers crossed we won’t get it but I’ll be surprised if not.

  14. 14.

    JPL

    @Nelle: My grandson got the flu last October when my son was out of town and DIL had a big project.   Both grans chipped in to help.   Since he was under one, they split up the flu shot so he only had a half of a dose.   It probably shortened the duration.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Just a few points for me:

    1. ~ 3900 increase each in confirmed and suspected cases in China on Feb. 4, which is a bit discouraging. However, the bulk the of the increases are still in Hubei. The significant increase in confirmed cases may have a lot to do backlog of suspected cases being cleared as test kits become more available and test cycle time decreased. If that is the case, the large increase in suspect cases is even more concerning, as a large number should be shifting to confirmed. The hopeful speculation is that the medical systems in Wuhan and Hubei province may be seeing a little relief, and starting to clear the serious cases that had been left hang. Again, it takes a CT scan with the telltale sandblasted glass type of images of the lungs to declare a suspect case (at least in Wuhan), and positive test results to declare a confirmed case. The more pessimistic interpretation, and more likely IMO, is that we are seeing a wave of secondary infection of the family members, from those who were infected before the lock downs. May be it is a combination of both. Anecdotally, form personal communications, social media posts and new reports, secondary infection of family members has been clearly common in Wuhan, due to the self-quarantines, perhaps only now the cases are starting to be captured in the statistics. If the lock downs, quarantines and public awareness campaigns are effective, perhaps we will start to see inflection in Wuhan and Hubei in a couple of weeks. Remember though that confirmation numbers are significantly lagging indicators, even suspect cases are lagging indicators. In Wuhan, it can take 10 days from infection to developing symptoms, to initial diagnosis and to CT scan. Test kit could take longer.
    2. There is huge discrepancy in mortality rates and recovery rates between Hubei and rest of China. I think the most likely explanations are the divergent demographics of the infected population between Hubei and rest of China, as well as the different availability of care between Hubei and China. I don’t have any data to support it, but I would not be surprised if the median age in Wuhan increased significantly from Jan. 1 to Jan 22., the day before the lock down. Of the approximately 5 million people that left Wuhan during that time, most are likely to be the young or the middle aged (including 1 million+ students from the various universities and colleges). Cases regardless of severity are also much more likely to be captured, recorded and treated in the rest of China. Younger infected population, much lower mortality rate and shorter time to discharge. Secondly, as I mentioned in previous posts, the medical systems in Wuhan (and possibly rest of Hubei) are totally overwhelmed, the cases captured by the system and recorded in statistics are likely strongly biased toward the severest cases. That leads to higher mortality rate and long average treatment times.
    3. The whole self-quarantine effort of people with symptoms has been a dismal failure, obvious in hindsight. While the Chinese medial authorities and the WHO have published guidelines and best practices, it is just not practical to expect the average person to be able to execute consistently , especially when families have reunited for the Spring Festival and three generations are crowding under the same roof. Furthermore, masks, alcohol and disinfectants have been difficult to obtain. Belatedly, the Wuhan government is converting auditoriums, indoor stadiums, and exhibition centers into centralized isolation facilities (dubbed containerized hospitals) for the confirmed cases with light to moderate symptoms, to separate them from their families and the general population. I’ve read at least 3500 beds total capacity, with more to be added. This should allow more efficient deployment of medical resources. They will be living bunk to bunk, since cross-infection is not a concern for the confirmed cases. Again, right course of action IMO, but days late, and behind other cities in China. I hope this means testing is no longer as much of a bottleneck, so they are now able to test people with light to moderate symptoms, too. Suspect but unconfirmed cases are being quarantined in commandeered hostels and guesthouses, waiting for confirmation and hospital beds. People with close contact with confirmed or suspect cases are being quarantined in other hotels and guesthouses. Serious confirmed cases will go to designated hospitals, the critical cases will go to the newly built temporary hospitals, staffed by medical personnel from the military.
    4. Life in Wuhan is still very quiet. No social unrest, no disruption of public services, no shortage of food or basic necessity, though grocery shopping have become more of a hassle to get what you want. Some communities (likely at the encouragement of the government) have taken to entering supply contracts with vegetable/fruit companies to sell standard packages directly to the residents. This is to minimize traffic at supermarkets. Delivery services (both cooked and fresh produce) have been drastically curtailed.
    5. There is concern that the cities of Huanggang and Xiaogan in Hubei, as well as Wenzhou in Zhejiang, may be struggling to contain outbreaks there. I really hope that will not happen, especially Wenzhou. Huanggang and Xiaogan are already under lock down. Why is Wenzhou on the southeastern coast a hot spot? People from Wenzhou are well known to scatter across China and the world doing business large and small, including Wuhan. They returned home for Chinese New Year, and undoubtedly hosted many banquets touting their success… The neighboring city of Taizhou has already severed all land links with Wenzhou.
    6. As for local lock downs in the rest of China, my read is that they are desperate to prevent themselves from becoming the next Wuhan. As Chinese New Year break has already been extended, and people are already strongly encouraged to stay home, the marginal cost/impact of implementing lock downs locally is probably not that high. A number of provinces with large immigrant populations returning from Chinese New Year (like Guangdong) are also requiring all returnees to self-quarantine for 10 – 14 days before reporting to work.
    7. All of these measures, including the continuing lock down of Hubei province (long a major exporter of labor to the manufacturing centers in the Pearl River Delta), will wreak havoc on Chinese services and manufacturing, and have a huge impact on the Chinese economy, sure to reverberate across the world. The Chinese government will have to deploy a large stimulus package, which will negatively affect the years long debt deleveraging effort. I have a front row seat in the VIP section to both the humanitarian emergency (living in Wuhan) and the economic turmoil (working for an American company with a lot of stake in China, including manufacturing). To think I just moved from Shenzhen to Wuhan, to be able to live with my wife and daughter. Talk about perfect timing… Absolutely no regrets though.
    8. More personally, there are now four families with confirmed cases in my apartment complex, though none in my building. We have heard that the serious cases in the four families, as we as others that we are aware of in our circle of acquaintances, are finally sent to hospitals for care. Fingers crossed that this suggests the medical system in Wuhan is recovering. Just read in the papers that two plane loads of American evacuees flew out of Wuhan yesterday, after staying at the airport for up to 48 hours. I never received any notice from the US Embassy in Beijing! Although I would still have opted to stay with my family, it would be nice not to be completely forgotten. And I am registered for the STEP program! On the other hand, I sent the Embassy an email to explore options about getting my mother out of Nanjing in Jiangsu province. I got a call back from a nice lady, saying the evacuations are for Wuhan, only. My mother is now booked on flights from Shanghai to SFO and JFK. Fingers crossed that at least one of them is not cancelled. Since she left Wuhan 20 days ago, and currently do not have any symptoms, she should only need to self-quarantine at final destination.
  19. 19.

    Barbara

    @Cermet: I think the way I would characterize it is that, based on the data we have now, the mortality rate is no higher than 2% and is likely to be lower given the number of cases that go untested and therefore unreported.

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