The results from Iowa are almost done and while Pete and Bernie are still neck and neck and fighting it out, one thing is crystal clear: Biden did terribly. He’s in fourth place. The delegate estimate I saw showed zero delegates. [Update: it was wrong.] His campaign had $8 million on hand at the end of last year, versus Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren’s mid-teens numbers. January numbers aren’t out yet, though the Sanders campaign announced another good month ($25 mil), and Warren has said she’s going to have to be careful with her cash. As far as I can tell, there’s been nothing but crickets from the Biden campaign on their fundraising.
For those of you who listen to Pod Save America, you’ve probably heard Favreau tell the story of the 2004 Kerry campaign, where he was a low-level staffer. I can’t find any online stories about it but the gist is that Kerry was almost out of money and Dean was getting a lot of good press and beat him in the DC primary. So Kerry shook things up and then went on to win Iowa and pretty much cruise to the nomination. Those of you with better memories might be able to fill in some blanks.
I was hoping to hope for Biden supporters in the story of the 2004 Kerry turn around (hence the title of the post), but by this time in 2004, the Kerry campaign was already showing serious signs of life. Of course, Kerry wasn’t the former VP, and that’s a huge political bonus. And there’s also Biden’s popularity in the African American community, which makes it possible that he’ll win primaries in the South and more urban states.
That all said, the polling in this race has shown that Democratic voters are moving their allegiance a lot. Look at the calendar and think about Biden. We start with a blowout in Iowa, followed by an almost certain loss in New Hampshire (Warren and Sanders both being almost local there), followed at best by a squeaker win in Nevada (this poll average looks ominous), a win in South Carolina (his “firewall”) and then Super Tuesday on March 3. Super Tuesday has 15 states and 1,344 delegates up for grabs. You need money to compete there, and Biden will head into that Tuesday maybe having one win to brag about.
I just don’t see a Biden win in this. Yeah, in terms of delegates, Iowa doesn’t matter. But it’s not like Biden didn’t contest the state — he ate his share of bacon wrapped deep fried snickers bars with lard dipping sauce. He just didn’t excite the voters there, period. That’s a problem, no matter what office he held prior to this.
schrodingers_cat
This post has a whiff of gloating slathered with some concern trolling. One thing about Biden though he doesn’t actively piss off supporters of other primary contestants. We will see how Biden and others do shortly. The primary season has just begun.
E.
I am steeling myself for pulling the lever for Bloomberg in November. God Help me.
MazeDancer
If Bloomberg keeps up the killer ads, he could take it.,
Cacti
Bernie Sanders will never be the President of the United States.
Glad I could help.
RedDirtGirl
Regarding Kerry, I was in college back then, and a lot of people on the left were being purity ponies about his liberal bona fides. I made a button for that election that said, “Hold Your Nose and Vote for Kerry”.
Trying to figure out how to adapt that to this year’s race.
WaterGirl
Bloomberg doesn’t have a single delegate, and won’t for several weeks. Yes he has money money money, but not a single delegate.
The story of hope you were looking to find? You got there in the next two sentences in that same paragraph. I think we should wait and see what happens in the next few weeks before we declare Biden dead in the water.
I’m not directing this at you, mistermix, but at all of us. I’m growing weary of Democrats pulling down the few remaining Democratic candidates, talking about why they can’t or shouldn’t win – there aren’t that many left; maybe we should look at ways to shore up the ones we do have, and leave the pulling down to our opponents.
Let’s put up a thermometer to help keep Biden in the race long enough to see what happens after the first 4 states that aren’t representative of the nation.
Tony Jay
I’m sorry, he did what? I wasn’t aware that Iowa was so culturally influenced by Scotland’s national cuisine.
WaterGirl
I may be slightly cranky because of the title of this post. I subscribe to a weekly newsletter from the Crucial Conversations people, and each one includes a question and an answer. I have one favorite person whose answers are always helpful, the rest are pretty good, and there is one person who forgoes those but instead tells annoying bullshit old fashioned stories that I can’t even bring myself to read – the titles of those weekly newsletters are “Kerry On…”.
Otherwise I would have thought this was a great title!
gene108
This is Biden’s third or fourth run for President, and his prior runs never got very far.
Maybe this is Biden’s reversion to his Presidential campaign mean.
WaterGirl
@RedDirtGirl: Were those buttons popular?
satby
Just a reminder of the kind of contemptible shit trolls have put out on FB:
* Trump like capitalization and spelling as written. I reported it to FB, but they stated it didn’t violate their community standards.
GBVA
@E.:
The man’s dark money spending literally got Susan Collins elected in a squeaker in 2014 and put Bret Kavanaugh on the SC. That so many people here have spent the last 4 years shrieking about Bernie not being a Democrat are now contemplating voting for a lifelong Republican and plutocrat who introduced GWB at the ’04 RNC by thanking him for “keeping us safe” by sending troops into Iraq is absolutely galaxy brain madness.
Sab
@Tony Jay: A lot of American cuisine is Scotland meets Africa. What you don’t boil you fry.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Tony Jay:
How’s things in your neck of the crazy woods, Tony Jay?
download my app in the app store mistermix
@WaterGirl: They can’t all be gold…
Also, I misremembered 2004 Iowa, with the “Dean Scream” media nontroversy. I thought Kerry lost and pulled it together after, so I thought that Iowa 2004 was a good story for Biden supporters. Turns out Kerry already had it together by then. I already had the title so here we are.
LC
I don’t know where you are getting your delegate estimates (your link goes nowhere), but I tend to lean on the super-wonky and low-key greenpapers for such things.
Their Iowa counts are up.
Right now it looks like:
Buttigieg 14
Sanders 12
Warren 8
Biden 6
Klobuchar 1
schrodingers_cat
BJP IT cell is amplifying right wing bigots who support the Orange King. I see an uptick since yesterday’s vote. Is this the Orange King’s price for appearing with Nautanki Modi?
Nautanki ==street theater in north India. Modi is known for his hats and costumes and of course his lies.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@satby:
Yes, it was written by a Republican supporting FB’s preferred candidate, so obviously it was OK.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@LC: I got that estimate by googling “Iowa Results” It shows zero dels for Biden, 5 for Warren, and Bernie and Pete are tied with 11 each. It is Google’s summary –
I don’t know where they get their numbers.Actually, I looked again, and their source is the AP, which is normally reliable.gene108
GWAR Carry On Wayward Son
Ohio Mom
When Ohio Son was a baby, and Clinton was president, and peace and prosperity were breaking out all over, some silly pundit-type announced it was The End of History.
I snorted at the little one iny arms and said, “History will be back to bite us all in the ass.” But I did not imagine it would take such a big chunk.
I was never nuts about Biden but find myself in a panic that he may be forced out of the race. The fact that he scares Republicans is all the endorsement I need.
NotMax
Condescending much?
Omnes Omnibus
Again, an atypical state runs an undemocratic process and we are expected to make judgments based on incomplete information from it?
Moreover, a surprise good result in one if the first four can give a struggling candidate a boost. A poor showing in all four is a bad sign. Otherwise, it isn’t all that important.
d-bo
My legit concern with Biden relying on SC is that there are a lot of rumblings about coordinated efforts to have R voters take advantage of the open primary to push BS. Since there is no republican primary do not be surprised if higher than normal turnouts equal serious shenanigans on the ground
LC
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
The fact that adds up to 27 and not 41 should have tipped you off they aren’t reporting things properly.
Omnes Omnibus
Also, people need to quit trying to make the process move faster than it does. It will be a while before we have a nominee. Deal with it.
PST
@schrodingers_cat:
Well, I know a couple of young Sanders supporters who are actively pissed off at Biden, but who aren’t they pissed off at? A nephew told me that Biden is a misogynist whose Supreme Court appointments will be a bad as Trump’s so he won’t bother to vote. Utter insanity, and he lives in Michigan!
Mnemosyne
It sure would be nice if people would stop declaring that candidates are the only possible winners / obviously doomed when only 0.001 percent of the country has a chance to vote so far. As we’ve already seen, state-level polls don’t seem to be particularly predictive when it comes to caucuses this year.
Gin & Tonic
@Ohio Mom: Francis Fukuyama. As Louis Menand notes, he kind of got lucky with that “End of History” thing. He was quite young, and it was a think piece in a pretty obscure publication, so I’m not sure he was yet a “pundit.” But to his credit, he has continued to do interesting work, sometimes wrong, sometimes not.
WaterGirl
Steve Benen this morning. I hadn’t seen this breakdown before, apologies if something like this has already been posted.
Betty Cracker
Like I said in the downstairs thread, Bloomberg’s ad blitz may have the effect of undermining the “moderate” candidates and elevating one of the two lefties Bloomberg got in the race to thwart. Maybe our oligarch class should stick to writing checks.
Josie
@WaterGirl:
This sounds like a really good idea and a positive action. Front pagers?
CarolDuhart2
I think the analysis is wrong about Biden’s first 2 runs. Biden suffered from 2 brain aneurisms during 1988, which he probably thought were headaches-and probably also sapped his energy a lot during the race. The second time he was really running for Vice President. Nobody running really thought they would get much traction between Hillary, Obama, and in a pinch, John Edwards. This is the first time we are seeing a healthy Biden with a healthy chance of winning.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@LC: Right, thanks, I updated the post.
Also, I went looking for J Rubin’s latest column, expecting a love note to Romney, but it was the counterpoint to what I posted here. Take a look if you want the hopeful case for Biden.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/06/heres-why-you-shouldnt-write-off-biden/?itid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-c%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
WaterGirl
@Josie: Specifically: Paging DougJ
Chief Oshkosh
If by “shook things up” you mean partnering with the Gephart campaign to take down Dean, sure. That definitely shook things up, took all of the fire out of the Democratic primary, and installed someone with the charisma of paste as the Dems’ banner bearer. Total self-own not to have beat Shrub at that dismal point in his failing-upwards career. Not that Dean (even then) didn’t have his problems, but the machinations of the party and K and G campaigns were definite buzz kills.
Full disclosure: I had house parties for both Dean, and then Kerry after he got the nom. I also phone-banked and went canvassing for both of them.
schrodingers_cat
@PST: I should have mentioned that the members of the cult are excluded.
WaterGirl
@download my app in the app store mistermix: Well, your current nym is excellent.
Betty Cracker
@download my app in the app store mistermix: J-Rub says in a lot of words what Stephen Robinson of Wonkette expressed in a tweet yesterday:
Maybe he’s on to something, I don’t know.
LC
@LC:
Sorry, was underground and got cut off and that came off FAR more curt than I intended it to be.
Interestingly, the numbers have shifted as the last results came in.
Buttigieg 13
Sanders 11
Warren 7
Biden 5
“available” 5
Looks like they aren’t comfortable with the last edges of the rounding errors and so are keeping those out of it for the moment.
(But seriously, people should use greenpapers, they are very good at this. They also cover the rules fairly well, which I ended up using endlessly in 2016 to explain to my friends working in the Sanders campaign that various results weren’t conspiracies.)
RedDirtGirl
@WaterGirl: To be honest, I just made the one for myself. But I thought it was clever.
PST
@LC: Yeah, The Green Papers site is fantastic for this kind of thing.
OzarkHillbilly
If people aren’t wrong from time to time, they aren’t trying hard enough.
Butch
@satby: Took me a while to find it – I don’t know if you’ve seen this video of a woman at an Iowa caucus who wants to withdraw her vote for Pete when she finds out he’s gay. The patience of the caucus wardens (whatever they’re called) is amazing.
https://www.joemygod.com/2020/02/dem-iowa-caucus-goer-upset-to-learn-buttigieg-is-gay/
Omnes Omnibus
@OzarkHillbilly: My rule of thumb from skiing is that if you don’t fall 2-4 times a day, you aren’t pushing yourself and, if you fall more than that, you are skiing runs that are too difficult.
Barbara
Ready, fire, aim!
Butch
Jinchi
I don’t understand this constant complaining of liberal “purity ponies”. Kerry won the 2004 primary with about 66% of the vote. The only place he lost seriously was D.C. where he wasn’t on the ballot. John Edwards was his closest rival and he was running as a moderate. Wesley Clark won Oklahoma.
So the “liberal” Dean won D.C. and his home state. I’m starting to think these ponies are actually unicorns. They only exist in your anecdotes.
Xavier
Being a former VP is NOT a huge advantage. Being long term in the public eye has just not been a path to victory lately.
Mr. Mack
@Omnes Omnibus: Ha. I have this love/hate thing for skiing. I was always pretty athletic. Good balance, speed, power and I was good but not great at every sport I played. Came time to hit the slopes, it was a total wash out. Whatever skill set is required to stay upright i clearly lack it.
But I’m with you and Ozark on the sentiment.
Emma
y’all forgive me if I start worrying after half the primaries are completed? This fetishize-when-convenient of Iowa results leaves me unimpressed.
Barbara
@Xavier: You mean, sort of like Trump was never in the public eye much before he was elected. And never mind that name recognition is clearly driving polling results in a number of states.
Do people still think before they type?
My view is this: in our entire history, there have been under 45 unique individuals who have become president, and somewhere north of 50 unique election cycles. Over time, these cycles have varied based on whether we were at war, the technology that could be leveraged to communicate with voters, and on and on. YOU CAN’T EXTRAPOLATE GENERAL PRINCIPLES FROM ISOLATED EVENTS, MUCH LESS UNIQUE EVENTS.
OzarkHillbilly
@Omnes Omnibus: Failure is the price one pays for success.
chris
No, no, Iowa, download MY app! Thread.
Jinchi
I don’t think this is a selling point for the campaign of a man who would be 82 years old at the end of his first term. One of the biggest worries about Biden and Sanders (and Bloomberg for that matter) is that they won’t be physically capable of doing the job for the duration.
Mai naem mobile
I don’t to sound mean and ageist but has anybody noticed that Biden looks old? He’s got that papery looking old people’s skin. He looks okay when he’s made up but in his regular campaign events he looks old. Warren is older too but looks like she’s in her 50s.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Jinchi:
I think a little less justification by use of code words like that would go a long way around here.
Also, as long as the statement “Hold your nose and vote for X” is true for pretty much any X, I’m for it, in the November election. In the primaries, I still think people should vote for the candidate they support. That’s the point of a primary.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: Well, there’s falling and then there’s falling.
Mai naem mobile
Trumpov was at the National Prayer Breakfast and whining about the impeachment . He sounded pitiful. Like a little whining baby. I just heard a short clip of it on the radio. Jeezus he is such a whiner.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@gene108: That was awesome! Thanks
Another Scott
@Tony Jay: Howdy stranger. Welcome back.
Cheers,
Scott.
CarolDuhart2
https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-17/biden-releases-medical-records
His aneurysms haven’t returned, but it looks like he has the typical health profile of a man his age but things look under control.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: True, sometimes one fall is enough. I have to ask though, was your fall on a particularly difficult run or was it just one of those things?
Betty Cracker
@Mai naem mobile: Yes. I think he almost certainly had work done, and it was a mistake because it has the opposite of the intended effect. Sanders looks old as the hills too, but he always did.
Mikeindublin
It was the Dean Scream that was his downfall, right?
Geminid
I was listening to Democracy Now yesterday, and David Frum and Bhaskar Sunkaya (editor of Jerkobin Magazine) were debating the Sanders campaign, and the strategy of mobilizing non-voters. Frum made an interesting point: of the 10 Rep and Dem candidates running in the 5 presidential campaigns since 2000 Trump’s popular vote was the second lowest, half a per cent ahead of McCain’s 2008 showing. The point being that if the regular voters show- and Trump was a hell of a GOTV resource for the Democrats in Va. last November- the Dems will win this year.
Citizen Alan
@WaterGirl:
Benen’s incorrect about Roger Wicker who should have been in the last group. He was still a Congressman during the Clinton impeachment.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mikeindublin: Yes. If you call people taking a sound byte completely out of context and presenting it as though it were a candidate’s entire speech his downfall.*
*I say this is as a Kerry supporter from Day 1.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: Just one of those things. Very variable conditions after a snowy and windy day.
Another Scott
@Barbara: +1
We’ve always known that there wasn’t going to be a linear path to the nomination. There were – and are – always going to be unexpected things.
We need to let the process play out.
Fight like hell for the candidate you want until the convention (or until someone has a majority), then fight like hell for the nominee. The future depends on us winning in November.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Mikeindublin:
Who knows? The Dean Scream occured after he finished a distant third in Iowa.
Jinchi
Unfortunately, the typical man his age has a life expectancy of 9 years. that gives him 50/50 odds of not surviving 2 terms and less of having the energy required to be the leader of the free world.
Fair Economist
@E.: I am trying to decide whether I’d be more concerned about a Sanders nomination or a Bloomberg one. It’s very tough. I’ll pull the lever for either, of course.
RedDirtGirl
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
@Jinchi: What about the polls saying 53% of Bernie Sanders voters won’t vote for any other democrat in the general? I know polls can be full of crap, but are you saying there’s no there there? I hope you are right.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
God that depresses me.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Butch:
the one who does most of the talking looks to be maybe twenty-two? I think I would’ve blown up at her
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Me too. It is what it is though.
PST
@OzarkHillbilly:
When I was in high school and college, I used to play bridge with a girl who always said, “If you don’t go down half the time, you’re not bidding aggressively enough.” Forty years later I married her. I still wonder if anyone but an irresponsible risk taker would have had me.
Butter Emails
@Betty Cracker:
I also remember back when Warren was surging, threatening to seize the lead and was basically drinking Bernie’s milkshake. Then all of a sudden, the hack brigade charged in, drove down her numbers and Bernie bounced back. If Bernie wins the nomination and Presidency because these geniuses decided Bernie was toast so they could kneecap Waren and then did the same to Biden by entering the race the pretty much deserve it if President Bernie drones their butts in the interest of national security.
mad citizen
@Mai naem mobile: I want to answer this one: Yes I’ve noticed. He looks old and weird from the plastic surgery. I was googling the other night about his ultra white teeth/caps and remember his hair plugs decades ago? Can’t be bald and be President, can we?
download my app in the app store mistermix
@RedDirtGirl: You got that backwards. 53% of them said they definitely would support the nom, 31% were it depends and 17% were a hard no. Not pretty but not 53%.
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-poll-warren-biden-2020-nominee-emerson-college-1483831
anarchoRex
If Bernie wins Iowa + New Hampshire, we’re gonna have to break out the Stages of Grief chart for the jackals.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Russia has a lot of money to burn to destroy the Ds from within.
RedDirtGirl
@download my app in the app store mistermix: Thanks for the correction. I’ll take the good news, however paltry.
No One You Know
@RedDirtGirl: Toy could just drop the last two words and it would work forever! (Probably said already upthread, but I couldn’t help myself.)
Uncle Cosmo
IOW a Biden nomination would make the selection of his running mate especially important. Fair enough. I’m reading McCullough’s bio of Truman & just finished the part about his VP nomination in 1944. Everyone – everyone, including Truman – was acutely aware that FDR was odds-on to die in office (he lasted 82 days into his fourth term) & that his running mate would become POTUS.
Even so, the primary concern was winning the election – Jimmy Byrnes of South Carolina was ruled out for racist leanings that would turn blacks away from the Democrats, sitting VPOTUS Henry Wallace** a fiery progessive that would lose Southern Democrats, & the party settled on Truman faute de mieux.
The longer Biden hangs in – & IMO that will be longer than most here think (or hope) – the more thought we ought to give to who he runs with.
** Wallace – brilliant, wildly popular among the progressive rank&file, was also viewed by the party chiefs as too erratic, mood & unreliable to be President.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@anarchoRex: It’ll be good practice for the death of the Republic in November
anarchoRex
@mad citizen: That’s the kind of diversity Bernie would bring to the WH. The first bald president!
(I have no idea if that’s true I’m just j/k)
Jinchi
@RedDirtGirl: We already saw that play out in 2016. 90% of Bernie’s voters came out for Clinton in the general election against Trump.
Betty Cracker
@Uncle Cosmo: Biden was asked that last night and answered it, sorta. I mean, he didn’t get specific — he said naming someone would be presumptuous, which is true. But he said it would have to be someone who could take charge on day one because he’s old AF. He also acknowledged that it might be nice to give womenfolk and/or POC a pat on the head by choosing one of their number since we’d be nominating a white dude for POTUS. (I’m paraphrasing!)
It’s kind of an awkward spot for Biden because his main selling point is that he alone of all the candidates is “ready on day one” by virtue of having been Obama’s wing man. So, if he chooses among the 2020 candidates (past or present), it would be someone he’d implied earlier wouldn’t be ready on day one.
GoBlue72
@RedDirtGirl: And Kerry lost. Not as bad as Clinton, but he lost.
Turns out a rich guy pompous windbag favored by part moderates and party elites was a shitty option. (He was my Senator at the time so I’d long seen him up close & personal)
The hippies were right about Af/Iraq. The hippies were right in 2004. The hippies were right in 2016. The hippies are right now.
Mnemosyne
@Jinchi:
The “purity ponies” were the people who declared that they couldn’t possibly vote for someone who voted for the Iraq war and stayed home, thus dooming hundreds of thousands more Iraqis since Bush continued the war.
Many of those same assholes decided in 2016 that Trump was better than voting for a “warmonger” like Hillary, and they’re making the same declarations against Biden right now.
Purity ponies guaranteed that the Middle East would be a fucked-up mess by deciding that they couldn’t soil their precious votes on anyone who voted for the AUMF. Except Bernie, of course. It was okay that Bernie voted for it, because reasons.
WaterGirl
OT, but… permission to vent?
I just received this email from the State Rep from the 104th district. First off, he’s so stupid that he apparently doesn’t know that I live in the the 103rd.
Second, I now loathe this guy and I have never even heard of him before. He, and others like him, are a pox on our nation.
Third, if you happen to live in Illinois 104th district, would you please for this motherfucker out of office? thank you.
Mnemosyne
@anarchoRex:
Between the ads he’s been running for years and Republican ratfucking in an open primary, Sanders will almost certainly win New Hampshire. Have you not been paying attention?
I will laugh my ass off if he manages to lose NH, but right now everyone is expecting him to win.
Mnemosyne
@GoBlue72:
So the hippies were right to let the Iraq War drag on for four additional years because they didn’t like Kerry’s vote for it?
You have an odd definition of “right,” Dwight.
JanieM
@GBVA:
Um, Susan Collins got 68% of the vote in 2014. None of her Senate elections have been squeakers.
Hopefully the next one won’t be either…….
No One You Know
@No One You Know: You, not toy!
tam1MI
@Mnemosyne: And let’s not forget that the purity ponies decided that the man who said, in 2000, that global climate change was the biggest threat facing the world, was no different from the man whose mantra was “drill baby drill”.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@GBVA:
You’re thinking of Pat Toomey, who some say was boosted up over Katie McGinty by Bloomberg’s money.
He’s far from my first choice, but thanks to the childish infatuation with Bernie Care that continues to infect so many on the left, he may be the only alternative to a second term of trump
Cacti
@GoBlue72: The hippies got Nixon elected in ’68 and ’72, Dubya in 2000, and Trump in 2016.
That’s 52 years of “heightening the contradictions”. And now the savior you’ve brought us to lead the “revolution” is a dyspeptic, 78-year old heart attack patient.
But hippies wonder why no one likes them and they never win.
anarchoRex
@Mnemosyne: point is, every candidate that has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has gone on to win the nomination. Once that starts to sink in when Bernie cleans up on Super Tuesday, I expect to hear much wailing and gnashing of teeth here.
ETA: Only four more years of Iraq war huh? Buddy, we’re still there.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cacti:
whose central campaign promise brought down Kamala Harris and is now an albatross Elizabeth Warren hung around her own neck. All of which is somehow Biden’s fault.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@anarchoRex:
Drowned out by champagne corks popping in the White House and on Wall Street.
Ascap_scab
I was really hoping Biden and Bernie would piss all over each others oatmeal and take each other out, leaving the nomination to Harris and/or Warren.
That looks to be happening, but I didn’t expect the cubic money from Bloomberg, or that he could con the masses so easily.
Cacti
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: And who has video of himself leading shirtless, drunken sing alongs, during his honeymoon in the Soviet Union.
anarchoRex
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: lol, sure bud
Cacti
@Ascap_scab: Bloomberg may have the unintended effect of dividing the center left vote between himself, Biden, and Klobuchar.
Which would allow the left a chance to McGovern this election.
anarchoRex
@Cacti: with your help, since, unless I’m mistaken, you’ve already said you’ll never vote for Bernie even in the general?
Cacti
@anarchoRex: Correct. I’m not a socialist and don’t vote for them.
The Dem candidate will win my state regardless, along with my Congressional district.
It’s all those other states that he’ll lose that will be the problem.
GoBlue72
@Mnemosyne: Your fantasyland of what happened is an insane Boomer mental breakdown of your own making.
GoBlue72
@anarchoRex: Didn’t you hear, St Obama ended the Iraq War and closed Gitmo…
Hold on…I’m getting some breaking news…oh, he didn’t.
Carry on.
Thread yesterday where I swear half the commenters hear were complaining about their children voting for Sanders. You couldn’t write a better script of crotchety olds complaining about “the kids these days”.
Maybe if you olds hadn’t so fantastically fucked up everything, your kids wouldn’t be following a 78 year old socialist from Vermont. Fix your own shit before pissing in the next generation’s cornflakes.
anarchoRex
@Cacti: ok purity pony
RedDirtGirl
@No One You Know: It took me a minute to figure that out, but I did. Thanks.
Cacti
@GoBlue72: Why do you pretend to be young when you’re almost 50?
tam1MI
I see the Berners are doing their usual bang-up job of voter outreach and persuasion.
Mnemosyne
@anarchoRex:
(citation needed)
Though you should probably also remember that no candidate ever won the popular vote by 3 million and then lost the Electoral College. Elections are much shaggier than you guys would like to believe because a statistic is a probability, not a certainty.
anarchoRex
@Mnemosyne: that’s actually my point, which is why all the dead-certainty around here that Sanders will lose in Nov is so obnoxious.
WaterGirl
Another good thread, gone the way of conversations with people who will never change their mind.
:: sigh ::
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@anarchoRex: Oh, you (not so) sweet, stupid summer child…. Winter is coming. If you fucking morons have your way.
@GoBlue72: Oh, Dwight. Remember when you used to wear your Sacramento-Insider costume, talking about the advice you gave “Jerry”?
@Cacti: Oh, I’m sure he’s over fifty by now
anarchoRex
@tam1MI: lol, right, because most of the commenters here are very open to persuasion in the primary. The attitudes here are baked in, myself included.
Barbara
@tam1MI: It’s really amazing, isn’t it?
anarchoRex
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’m willing to bet your record of correctly guessing the outcome of any given election is worse than 50/50. So is mine, so is most people’s! Any talk about who can/can’t win where is literally just the name sake of this blog.
Mnemosyne
@GoBlue72:
Lol, “Boomer.”
Gen X is flying under the radar right now, just the way we like it.
But go ahead and give Trump a second term while blaming everyone else for your folly. It’s what the left does best, and has been doing since at least the 2000 election.
At least I managed to learn my lesson in 2000 rather than doubling down on a failed “strategy” that only gives more power to the Republicans.
anarchoRex
@WaterGirl: hey, OT, but I’m using Duck Duck Go on a Moto G7 with Android, and the comment editor has been acting wonky since the big blog update. You heard of anyone having similar problems?
For instance, in the “Visual” editor, when I hit the space bar, the cursor jumps over to the end of whatever word was next, among other things. The “Text” editor tends to work better more consistently.
Mnemosyne
@GoBlue72:
Hey, remember when Bernie voted in 2009 to keep Gitmo open when Obama tried to close it? Good times, good times.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-voting-history/
Cacti
And has given it to them over and over, for more than a half century now.
artem1s
OFFS. does anyone really believe that getting 14 or 11 or 8 or 6 out of the 1,990 delegates needed to win the nomination will effectively change the course of this race? FFS, Edwards took second in Iowa in 2008, of course Mayor Pete is going to do well there. Whatever Kerry or Carter did in Iowa pre-internet and mobile phone days isn’t relevant. There is plenty of evidence that Putin’s trolls has been and will be screwing with us right up the general. and sorry, I think Iowa’s stupid caucus makes them especially susceptible to such trolling. It’s time to get rid of the caucuses and the first in the nation idiocy.
I had zero expectations that Iowa would be representative of any of the other primaries. when we get to some states that have a real vote and a more representative demographic, then I’ll start paying attention to the hand wringing.
Mnemosyne
@anarchoRex:
Sanders has no path to victory. The majority of non-white voters don’t like him and getting non-voters to change their ways is WAY harder than you guys seem to realize. He’s also alienated a big portion of the Democratic base, and hypocritical threats about what will happen if we don’t bend the knee aren’t exactly winning people over.
You know why the Republicans canceled primaries in states with open primaries, right? It’s so their voters can ratfuck the Democratic primary. In open primary states, there will be a whole lot of people who will vote for Sanders in the primary and Trump in the general election, just to fuck with us.
I wouldn’t pin all of my hopes and dreams on a 78-year-old man who’s already had one heart attack. Just sayin’.
tam1MI
@anarchoRex: If what you are driving at is that it is a long way to November and that anything can happen, I fully agree with you. It’s nobody’s race to lose at this point.
WaterGirl
@anarchoRex: I am not aware of similar issues. Have you tried using a different browser on your device to determine whether you see the same thing there?
One way or another, the results would point to the source of the problem.
WaterGirl
Mnem, at least you brought me CatCake with your replies.
Mnemosyne
@WaterGirl:
If it makes you feel better, I’m about to go into a meeting with my boss and will probably forget all about this thread. ?
Uncle Cosmo
So? How ready was Harry Truman? (Narrator: He wasn’t.) And that was in the middle of a frackin’ world war with an impending collision between the two most important allies. Fortunately for the nation & the world, the powers-that-were recognized Truman as a decent, honest, steady, hardworking guy who knew he was in over his head but determined to do the best he could, and for the most part rallied around him.
IMO, if/when he approaches nomination, Biden should commit to (1) conducting a thorough and wide-ranging search among potential running mates, including people beyond the usual political circles; (2) choosing one who is (relatively) young & in good health with the moral, ethical and intellectual chops to function in the White House; (3) assigning the eventual VPOTUS significant responsibilities as part of a training regime to get her/him up to speed on the job; and (4) increasing the scope of those responsibilities as they go deeper into the first term until VPOTUS is functioning as a true “assistant POTUS.”
Uncle Cosmo
@Cacti: Because s/he** is the living embodiment of the old saw attributed (apparently spuriously) to Churchill: Anyone who is not a socialist at 20 has no heart, but anyone who is still a socialist at 40 has no brain.
(ETA: Not often do I agree with you, Prickly Plant, but this is one of those moments. The enemy of my enemies is my ally for the time being.)
** Unsure of the imbecile’s gender.
WaterGirl
@Mnemosyne: If it’s a “boss” meeting, I hope it goes well!
cokane
Eh, I wouldn’t get all narrative shifty about the race. I’m not even sure Biden’s fourth place finish is all that bad? He had been polling roughly there for awhile now, no? He had basically ignored the state with his campaign resources.
Yes he went there and visited because why not? But he didn’t dump a bunch of campaign ads there like Buttigieg did. I dunno, the final results are roughly what the polls said they would be. And if that holds, Biden is bound to clean up in a bunch of other states. It also seems to me that Biden is the most poised to win once other candidates drop out, which may happen very soon with Klobuchar. And might even happen after Super Tuesday with Warren.