The Beast is apparently holding a victory lap/press conference right now that is spiraling into new heights of craziness. No president has ever been treated so badly, not even those who were shot in the face. Trump has covered the following topics: Comey, Hillary Clinton, Strzok and Page, Pelosi, Jim Jordan’s ears, Scalise’s gunshot wound and his wife’s evidently remarkable concern about the possibility of his death, etc.
I’m not watching, not even clips, but people on Twitter are astonished that the networks aren’t cutting away. I’ll give you two reasons why not: 1) cha 2) ching.
Tom Perez has called on the Iowa Democratic Party to recanvass caucus results:
Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.
— Tom Perez (@TomPerez) February 6, 2020
Meanwhile, Sanders declared victory on Twitter. Jesus, what a day. How about some peaceful birds?
Ibises browsing around the base of a cypress tree on this windy day. Storm is coming. pic.twitter.com/PD2sEcPOiB
— Betty Cracker ? (@bettycrackerfl) February 6, 2020
We’re supposed to get a significant wind, rain and lightning event, aka, a storm, later. Maybe we’ll get lucky and be cut off from civilization for several days. We’d be fine. Better, maybe!
Open thread!
Jay Essel
Thanks, Betty – I made it all of sixty seconds into Needy Amin’s remarks before switching over to a sound mix of Assateague Island ocean/bird noises.
download my app in the app store mistermix
Any “momentum” (pundit word of dubious worth, I know) that the victor would get from Iowa has been hopelessly muddled by the results fuck up so why not just start over? Buttigieg and his supporters should be hella pissed about how Pete’s big accomplishment was overshadowed.
Martin
Clearly Trump learned his lesson.
WaterGirl
That’s a beautiful video, Betty.
germy
Trump also made sure to mention Obama.
He said something like “If this had happened to Obama, there’d be a lot of people locked up for a very long time!”
JPL
Same. A friend started texting me horrified.
Martin
@download my app in the app store mistermix: Iowa is a spectacle, not an election. Sometimes the spectacle helps you, sometimes it hurts you, but never be deluded into thinking that it’s actual insight into the electorate, because it’s not.
WaterGirl
Steve, on the right, looks just like I feel when I think about the 52 elected officials that betrayed their country and their constitution yesterday. I guess Steve just heard the news. At least we knew it was coming.
Suzanne
Trump supporters remind me of the kind of people who buy perfume named for celebrities.
trollhattan
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
Wilmer: “Never mind him. Me-me-me-me-me-me-me. Also, the caucus and primary process is rigged, rigged, do you hear me?”
It worked once for somebody else, so….
Martin
The networks really need to not cut away from this stuff. It doesn’t help to bury it. People need to see it.
FelonyGovt
I will have to watch what I say about Trump online from now on because I don’t want to get a visit from the Secret Service.
For a peaceful respite may I suggest the eagle cam from Friends of Big Bear Valley? A pair of bald eagles are taking turns watching their two eggs in a beautiful setting.
Jeffro
First reporter to shove microphones in Lisa Murkowski’s and Susan Collins’ faces for their deep thoughts about trumpov’s rant wins a prize!
Also, reposted from the thread below…I know it’s weird, but trumpublicans desperately cling to “Steve Scalise got shot by a Lefty” because it’s vital to the TCNJ’s “all the violence is on the Left” narrative. It cancels out literally dozens of right-wing mass shootings, Charlottesville, the pipe-bomb-mailer, etc.
germy
Baud
Sounds to me like we should impeach him again.
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: Why are you guys all talking about The College of New Jersey?
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Martin:
Agreed, but I still think Pete wuz robbed. As much as he’s not my cup of gin, he accomplished something there.
Mohagan
Thank you for the ibis!
tam1MI
@trollhattan: So, after his cult spent days screaming about how the evil gay guy declared victory before the count was official…
Bernie declares victory before the count is official.
Typical.
germy
I thought Betty Cracker was kidding when she mentioned that.
Baud
Also, too, I declare myself the real winner of the Iowa caucus. The New Hampshire too, but keep that on the down low until Tuesday night.
LuciaMia
Love the Obama comment. Sweet Jesus, what a whiny little entitled sack-o-shit.
clay
So what do we think about recanvassing? In theory I’m in favor of it — a problem-filled election should be redone.
However, I think in practice, this will lead to cries of “the DNC” trying to “rig” the election, and just give ammo to the conspiracy mongers. I’m afraid that it would just cause more division.
Hoodie
Back to slouching towards Bethlehem . . .
Jeffro
BTW (provided by Jay in the thread below): great CBS News story that got buried yesterday
Violent white supremacist groups now on a par with ISIS in terms of threat to Americans
Baud
@clay: Recanvassing is like a recount. They’re not rerunning the caucus.
clay
@Baud: Ah, I misunderstood. That’s better.
Still, imagine if the recount reduces a candidate’s totals. We’d never hear the end of it.
cope
We’re hunkering down for that storm, too, Betty. Just called it a day after our 5th (?) working in the garage for the first time in a couple of decades. We could put both cars in it but that was all, the walls were stacked and stuffed and scary to dig through but we are getting there.
I find I am online less and reading things printed on paper more, just trying to make the time pass faster until November. Before Trump was elected, I never spent a picosecond wondering about life if he were to win. Now, I have to work very hard NOT to think about what life will be like if he goes 2 for 2.
Anyway, back to T.E. Lawrence and the intrigues of the Mideast in WW I.
chopper
Sanders declared victory on Twitter
“declared victory” over twitter, or declared “victory over twitter”? cause these days who fucking knows.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@trollhattan:
I fail to see what this has to do with my concern that Pete got a bad shake out of Iowa.
Anyway, since you @ me, I’ll respond. I once called Mayor Pete a mocking name that we all know in a post, and got a lot of pushback. I decided that the people complaining were probably right and I shouldn’t call him that. I guess you and a bunch of others can call Sanders any name you want and it’s OK because reasons?
Also, I understand that some Bernie stans and bros and whatever else were yelling that the fix was in, but from what I read the campaign itself wasn’t talking about the race being rigged. For example, AOC tweeted out a peace love and understanding message the next day. She followed it up with messages as to why the caucus should be changed to a primary going forward, which of course I think most of us could agree with.
Edited to add: Is this what you’re talking about? Bernie declared victory? So what, so did Pete. It’s the everyday spin of a campaign.
Martin
@download my app in the app store mistermix: But it’s not something which is predictive. One of the caucus goers that was interviewed said that she met every candidate, some more than once, and that it wasn’t hard to do that.
Glad-handing 100,000 people over 6 months does not scale. Elizabeth Warren cannot maintain her selfie policy when 25 million California Dems turn out to see her, and Pete can’t shake all of our hands.
All an Iowa victory tells us is that you would have been a great candidate in 1880. But it’s such a colossally weird thing that all it really serves to do is signal to the media and the donors that you shouldn’t be counted out. And if Iowa wasn’t there, we do that via debates and polls instead, which at least the rest of us could engage in.
California is going to offer up 12x as many delegates, Texas 6x as many, North Carolina 3x as many. All on one day. My county (not a large county by CA standards, mind you) is putting up roughly as many delegates as all of Iowa and I’ll be shocked if I see even a single candidate come here. Iowa tells us nothing other than you can play the Iowa game. Nobody is going to be crowing about how they won Orange County, or even Alabama (with 25% more delegates up for offer than Iowa). In reality, Iowa is a very hollow victory, yet we treat it as if its the whole ballgame.
TriassicSands
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
There is widespread acknowledgment that:
1. Iowa is not a good choice to lead off the election campaigns voting;
2. A caucus is an undemocratic process that (despite certain virtues) excludes most voters (including people who would be willing to participate);
3. It would be better if all caucuses were replaced by primaries.
Certainly, if the above are true, then denying the “winner” of the Iowa debacle “momentum” is not really a bad thing.
One problem with this is that now the candidates move on to New Hampshire, a tiny, white state that is hardly a better place to be given such a huge distorted importance in the presidential race.
It doesn’t have to be this way. New Hampshire should not be allowed to dictate that it must be the first primary.
Martin
@clay: I think if you are running a sound election process, you won’t need a recount.
Joe Falco
Nope. No recanvass. Let the embarrassment serve as a grim example that this caucus nonsense has got to go. If Perez wants to call himself the head of the DNC, admit fault for letting this drama continue and promise to make substantial reforms for 2024 if he’s still in charge by then. Implement a rotating primary schedule and if the states (*cough* New Hampshire) won’t abide by it, deny them delegates. The future of this country is more important than any one state’s pride or tradition.
Betty Cracker
Sounds like the Iowa Dems chair is saying Perez ain’t the boss of him?
Christ, this will never end.
chris
I had the speech on while I was cleaning the oven. Had to mute before I threw something. That boy ain’t right!
Thanks for this BC. Here are some wonderful wildlife pictures from Finland.
chopper
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
he’s called ‘wilmer’ here by many because earlier on, mostly in 2016, using his last name in threads would bring out a bunch of bernfeelers like the fucking batsignal.
someone came up with ‘wilmer’ to keep it at bay.
Crashman06
@download my app in the app store mistermix: Thank you.
Betty Cracker
@download my app in the app store mistermix: I hope the dueling victory declarations bite both Sanders and Buttigieg on the ass and people say, look, that nice senator professor lady isn’t measuring the drapes! Let’s vote for her! ;-)
catclub
@Jeffro: I was amused they did the analysis for fiscal year
2020. Which started last October.
schrodingers_cat
Wilmer the leap year Democrat, wants to be anointed as our nominee.
chris
@Suzanne:LOL!
Thanks, I needed that.
TriassicSands
@Jeffro:
Collins has now said that her comments about Trump learning a lesson from impeachment (without consequences) were “aspirational.” She admits she may have been wrong.
Reasonable Headline:
Susan Collins Takes IQ Test: Fails To Score
Collins is a danger to herself and others (including democracy).
chopper
@Betty Cracker:
“measuring the drapes” is something that only seems to be a negative when a woman does it. when men do it it’s seen as “self confidant and assertive”
C Stars
I’m so discouraged by the hordes of Wilmer fans who keep insisting on a series of vast conspiracies to take down their lord and savior, again and again. I really hate their cult of personality tactic, and how closely it echoes the Trump campaign, though I suppose to an extent it works for them for the same reason it works for Trump. It’s going to be hard to vote for the guy if that’s what it comes down to.
[Edited to change name to Wilmer, as you do…]
trollhattan
@Jeffro:
“Frontline” just rebroadcast “Documenting Hate: New American Nazis”, which I had missed on first airing Nov ’18. Chilling from start to finish and yeah, I worry a lot more about those dudes than ISIS.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Martin: I agree with everything you said. Iowa sucks. My only point is that, in the world where Iowa exists as it does today, Pete was denied the media attention that would have probably led to better fundraising, etc. He raised a lot of money and put it into Iowa, because that’s how it works. His investment should have yielded for him in the political environment we’re in now, and it didn’t.
hells littlest angel
What a nutjob. From Raw Story:
Offhand I can think of three.
zhena gogolia
@C Stars:
It echoes the Trump campaign because they both take their cues (and who knows what else) from Putin.
trollhattan
@Betty Cracker:
The
bestonly path of deliverance from Iowa’s shitstorm is getting on with New Hampshire. That’s gotta be an order of magnitude simpler.WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Maybe Tom Perez is using this as a way to indicate that the DNC is not in charge of the Iowa elections?
chopper
man once trump is out of office he could make millions by taking this performance to vegas. just all goin off in front of a podium, 3 shows a day.
Jamie
@chopper: And probably will.
WaterGirl
@download my app in the app store mistermix: I have to agree with you. This is changing the rules in the middle of the game.
chopper
@hells littlest angel:
fits with his general view of women.
ziggy
I managed to watch a good portion of the “victory speech”, and I feel rather ill, like when you eat waay too much fair food, then go on the spider ride. Feeling quite bad for the patriots that are in his cross hairs. His minions will be falling all over themselves going after those brave people.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@chopper:
So maybe it’s time to cut it out. And perhaps you could also go easy on the “bernfeelers”. Some of them are obnoxious. Others are just excited for their candidate.
BretH
@germy: “He said something like “If this had happened to Obama, there’d be a lot of people locked up for a very long time!”
He’s right of course, just not in the way he means.
Jeffro
@hells littlest angel: see comment #13…TCNJs repeat it like a mantra…”Scalise got shot”
trumpov has now upped that to “Scalise got whacked“, as if a rival mob gang (us lefties?) had it out for him.
FelonyGovt
@hells littlest angel: Melania would be filing her nails while they’re dragging the lake.
Betty Cracker
@chris: Wow, those photos are amazing!
@WaterGirl: Didn’t think of that, but maybe so!
ziggy
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
I like the nickname “Wilmer”, saves a bit on Bernie fatigue. If only we had a decent nickname for “T” that would stick and was universal.
Gin & Tonic
So I always thought my flight with a 37-minute transfer time in ATL was, how to say, very ambitious? Now that my first leg is showing a departure delay of 35 minutes, that is officially toast, so I’ll be losing a day of skiing. Luckily I was able to change my car and hotel reservations without penalty. But I’m looking forward to a few days of avoiding the bullshit fountain that seems to be everywhere,
anarchoRex
Thankful that Bernie demanded the popular vote counts for caucuses back in 2016. Finally exposed how much bullshit there is. It’s likely that the caucus has been run incorrectly every single primary. We need to dump all caucuses.
TaMara (HFG)
My vow to stay away from twitter for a week (for my mental health) was completely flushed early because someone sent me links to Twitler’s speeches.
JFC – As if my day hadn’t been sucky enough already.
Tomorrow is another day (hopefully)
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Betty Cracker: I sure hope so. Cole was right the other day that she always focuses on the important stuff.
Jeffro
@WaterGirl: I did not get what you were referring to until I Googled it and “TCNJ” came up.
Explanation: I have stopped referring to “RWNJs” – right-wing nut jobs – and now refer to all trumpov cultists as, well, “TCNJs”. This was (for me, anyway) after a spectacular blow-up with my formerly RWNJ, now TCNJ, dad and bro.
Because anyone who’s with trumpov, or anti-Dem enough to align with trumpov, at this point is a flat out cult member.
(Sorry about that, College of New Jersey!)
zhena gogolia
Fabulous piece by Marie Yovanovitch in WaPo.
zhena gogolia
@TaMara (HFG):
See my previous comment for link to Yovanovitch. It cheered me up.
chris
download my app in the app store mistermix
@ziggy:
I think the variety of Trump nicknames that I see around here is part of the fun. “Wilmer” is not, since he is on our side, no matter how much people like to other him.
Cacti
Rolling Stone on Bernie’s noble followers:
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@ziggy Sounds like nicknames aren’t allowed ’round here no more.
Barbara
@anarchoRex: Yes, I assume that “fog of war” conditions that surround caucuses have long resulted in inaccurate tallies, but it’s still the case that even counting the number of voters isn’t really correcting for the underlying flaw, which is to make it really hard for more people to vote. It’s not enough to ask for a voter count when the rules are practically designed to minimize the number of voters. I wish there had been even more consensus about this. Maybe have a hard and fast rule that if you want to hold a caucus it has to be in the last group of states in the primary schedule. Make states choose.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
I think that’s true. The Pod Save American guys say Iowa is at least partly an expectation game. If you over perform expectations, you get a boost even if you don’t win. Pete did much better than most people expected no matter how the one/two slots work out.
Did Sanders underperform? I’d say Biden did, no matter how his campaign is spinning it.
Mnemosyne
I know that we’re all really eager to get going on kicking Trump’s ass in November, but I really wish that everyone’s partisans would refrain from declaring victory based on a single fucked-up caucus in a 90 percent white state.
That is all.
Cacti
He’s always there when he needs us.
Kelly
House Democrats need to fan out investigate everybody in the Trump maladministration. Every House committee, hell every subcommittee pick a target. At minimum every cabinet member every Trump family member.
rikyrah
@trollhattan:
Chris Rock said it years ago…
” I’m not afraid of Al Qeda…I’m afraid of Al Cracka”
Gin & Tonic
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
I do not believe he is.
Mnemosyne
@FelonyGovt:
I see what you did there. ?
Uncle Cosmo
@download my app in the app store mistermix: IOW some of the Bernfeelers are shits & others are imbeciles. Who knew?
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@cope: Garage cleaning is only for the brave, good for you. Some family members tried that a few years ago, and are still telling stories about it. The short version: Great Uncle Dan’s ’41 Dodge wasn’t in there. They claimed to have seen glimpses of chrome over the years, but it wasn’t the case.
anarchoRex
@Barbara: total agreement. Shouldn’t even have the option imo. Caucuses are just straight undemocratic.
John Revolta
@FelonyGovt: I don’t know how much more of this I can take
PJ
@Cacti: Ha!
gene108
@Jeffro:
TCNJ?
The College of New Jersey?
Elie
We have quite a year or more ahead. If not re-elected Trump will do enormous damage and may not exit without a fight. Till then he and his team of orks will continue to destroy our civic society brick by brick. His goal has always been to serve Putin’s need to see our country and its system dismantled and that is what is happening. Bernie is assisting and will also, I predict, as before, refuse to vacate if he is not the nominee, just like he did before.
Right now, we don’t have any levers to stop him or them. I gotta however say “bless you” to Romney for giving us the tiniest ray of sunshine in this long nightmare.
Hold onto our hats and stay ready for chaos. We are gonna have to learn how to survive what is coming and take back our country. It will not be easy.
Mnemosyne
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
IIRC, the weird thing about the Iowa caucuses is that they do double duty, because they also pick the representatives who will go to the state Democratic convention where they hammer out what the final delegate totals will be for each candidate. IOW, the numbers we’re getting right now are probably not even the final delegate numbers that will be sent to the DNC for the convention this fall.
Jay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/bumble-bee-heat-waves-1.5453156
Baud
@TaMara (HFG):
It almost certainly is.
WaterGirl
@chopper: I figured he thought that because he wouldn’t give a damn.
Alternate theory: he’s a sociopath who doesn’t experience normal feelings, so he cannot understand why/how a person would respond that way.
catclub
@chopper: or at least his view of his ex-wives.
Kraux Pas
@Baud: Hey, no matter what happens to humanity, the Earth will keep on spinning.
catclub
@gene108: Trump Cult Nut Jobs
Geminid
@Cacti: I think the Democratic Socialists of America are very unified.
Baud
@Mnemosyne: I think all caucuses work that way. That was the controversy with the Nevada caucus in 2016 IIRC, where certain Bernie people didn’t show up for the second stage and it cost him some delegates, this resulting in a rigged caucus.
anarchoRex
@Jay:
Jay, I appreciate your dedication to sharing tweets about a broad range of issues. But, man, you can be a real downer sometimes.
They should make you a front pager and let you do the occasional anti-reprieve twitter roundup open thread.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Sanders and Pete basically tied given the massive inherent margin of error in caucuses, so I think Pete was the “winner” and Sanders would have gotten little or nothing from the results (assuming they stay roughly the same). Biden was #4, hard for an inevitability candidate. Warren met expectations so, in the media game, she basically gained nothing.
As Martin pointed out above, it’s a stupid game, but I’m giving what I think the results would have been if they could have counted the votes.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: I think the only two “normal” human emotions he ever experiences are anger and resentment.
Martin
@download my app in the app store mistermix: I agree with that, but merely note that you shouldn’t rely on something as meaningfully fragile as Iowa. If the media cycle works in your favor, then great, but I would think that by now we would recognize that the media cycle works in its own favor, particularly when you have an impeachment as a backdrop. You simply can’t count on it, so don’t overinvest in it.
Greenergood
@hells littlest angel: projection yet again! Mango Mussolini knows that Melania would be running through meadows scattering wildflowers, and then imbibing copious amounts of Moët-Chandon if her beloved husband met his demise…
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Gin & Tonic: Is he on Trump’s side? I mean, those are the two sides, right? This isn’t 14 dimensional chess. It’s pretty fucking simple.
Baud
@Martin:
If Pete or Bernie or Biden can’t handle what happened in Iowa then they can’t handle the office of the presidency. Simple as that.
catclub
I was surprised to see at PredictIt political betting site,
that Bernie is leading for the nom (in terms of price) and Bloomberg (!?!!)
is second. Either they are right and early or just wackily wrong.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Mnemosyne:
In a primary state, are the delegates set once the primary is done? The people going to the national convention have been selected?
Jay
The Dangerman
@TriassicSands:
I would have gone for respirational (as in, too stupid to breathe)…
…and the White House is probably taking whatever “recipe” of pills Donnie took this morning and putting it into the shredder.
John Revolta
@Cacti: I predict that guy is the opening act at Trumpf’s campaign rallies by August, the latest.
NotMax
State of the Delusion speech.
trnc
All the while knowing they’re looking in the wrong place.
Kent
I like †Я☭mp but that is kind of tedious.
Gin & Tonic
@download my app in the app store mistermix: He is on his own side.
Martin
@Mnemosyne: Oh, we know they’re not. The dem process isn’t that different from the GOP process that caused Ron Paul to take all of the delegates because Rick Santorums’ people couldn’t bother to show up to pick the national delegates, but Ron’s people did.
My mom was a state delegate once, and she said it was startling how different the final result turned out to be simply because getting everyone to go to Des Moines or wherever a month after the caucuses proved to be too difficult for a lot of state delegates.
PJ
@TriassicSands: Can anyone tell me why it would be bad to either
1) have one nationwide day for primaries, using ranked choice voting, or
2) to have, say, between February and June, one day each month for primaries for ten states (plus territories and DC) (selected either regionally or randomly), rotating the order of primacy every 4 years, and re-selecting the ten-state groupings every 20 years?
Jay
anarchoRex
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I can only speak for Texas’s 2016 primary, but we selected delegates in 2 stages:
1. A couple months after the primary, voters gather for a County Convention, which is a state convention in miniature: we elect officers to different committees, vote on a County platform, and select delegates to the State Convention.
2. At the State convention, we do it all over again, and select delegates to the National Convention.
PJ
@download my app in the app store mistermix: Is Trump on the side of the Republicans? Only insofar as they support him.
NotMax
@Dorothy A. Winsor
It varies. And in some cases not all delegates to the convention are the result of the primary, party apparatchiks and/or elected officials who serve as delegates officially arriving as being designated uncommitted.
TriassicSands
@Kelly:
I hate to say it, but that would almost certainly be disastrous for Democrats in November.
I haven’t agreed with everything Pelosi has done, but I”m glad she’s making the decisions and not…pretty much anyone else. I think we have to trust her.
Martin
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
I agree. I try to not call people names, even if I think they deserve it.
One of the things I’ve learned as I’ve aged is that people deserve the right to their identity, and I don’t have the right to take that from them – whether its their name, or their gender, or whatever.
I can criticize people just fine without taking their identity from them.
Barbara
@anarchoRex: I think Nevada, North Dakota, and Iowa are the only states that are still holding caucuses this year. That’s a big improvement over last cycle, when some relatively large states (Minnesota, Washington) also held caucuses. Some territories are still holding a caucus but that is less concerning.
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@Gin & Tonic: If I might make a suggestion here, the Seven Deadly Sins?
Immanentize
@Wilmer mistermix:
I like that!
Barbara
@download my app in the app store mistermix: I don’t use “Wilmer” but my understanding is that it came to be because of the number of one hit wonders who would show up to derail any discussion in which a post had included the name Sanders. It was basically defensive, not meant to be insulting. Unlike the term you used.
Kraux Pas
@anarchoRex: I like the groups of primaries idea, but random not regional. Regions tend to have somewhat cohesive preferences that may disadvantage certain candidates on any given year. All at once would be too money heavy.
Honestly, I don’t even mind having a few states individually (again to reduce the importance of money), but it shouldn’t always be the same states and certainly not the lily white pair we have now.
Redshift
@anarchoRex: That sounds like Virginia. I think a key difference from Iowa is that while specific people are elected as convention delegates at district convention after the primary, the number of delegates pledged to each candidate has already been decided. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think in the Iowa system, the exact number of delegates for a change atcandidate can that point, too.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@anarchoRex:
Are the delegates to the National Convention bound to vote in accord with the primary vote?
Elizabelle
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
Is Wilmer on our side? I loved S. Cat calling him a leap year Democrat. That is what he is, and just so he can run for president.
We cannot afford Wilmer. He would lose to Trump, should we be so insane to allow him the nomination. Why do you suppose Republicans are being urged to vote in upcoming Dem primaries, to skew them to Bernie?
Bernie will have no coattails. We cannot afford him and his goddamn vanity run.
Immanentize
@Martin: Are made-up names identity?
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic:
On this topic, McSweeny’s has a piece for the unconvinced–“TO ALL THE BERNIE BROS I’VE LOVED BEFORE” by SHANA GENRE. A sample
NotMax
@PJ
Several reasons, including but not limited to:
Candidates would of necessity concentrate primarily on the states with the largest slates of delegates; smaller/smallest states become almost an afterthought
Greatly lessens the time spent face-to-facing with potential voters in individual states
Quantum leap in the difficulties for emergence of candidates who have not yet secured a war chest sufficient to cover multiple media outlets and related campaign expenses simultaneously in multiple states.
Redshift
@Barbara: From what I looked up the other day, it’s only Iowa and Nevada (though I could be wrong.) In 2016 fourteen states had caucuses.
tam1MI
We need to dump all caucuses.
Finally, something that moderates and progressives can agree on! ;)
In other news, looks like Buttigieg got a nice healthy bump out of New Hampshire after all…
Kent
A national primary would basically anoint the candidate with the most name recognition and money. It would be utterly impossible for any kind of underdog to build a campaign and win. Campaigns would be reduced to nothing more than media campaigns.
There is something to be said for starting in smaller areas with cheaper media markets so that candidates have a chance to do more retail level politics and hone their messages before blasting into the big time where it is all just advertising and nothing else.
I’d be in favor of some sort of rotating schedule with logical groupings of states, starting with some smaller but more diverse states like New Mexico, Nevada, Louisiana, Arkansas, Wisconsin, etc. before moving on to the bigger states in some kind of rational fashion. Sometimes the process will be over relatively early. Sometimes it will go down to the wire and late states become crucial like in 2008. You never know.
I would also apportion delegates based on actual votes rather than the current electoral-college style method of apportioning delegates to states based on state population, not how many Democrats they actually turn out to vote in the primary. If Oregon turns out twice as many Democratic primary voters as similar sized Oklahoma or Kentucky then Oregon should get twice as many delegates as those states. It would give states and local parties an incentive to increase the size of the electorate.
anarchoRex
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I believe so?
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: They are supposed to, until released, which means either by the candidate (like if Pete B. Decided to later drop out of the race, he could release his delegates); or, if there is no winner on the first ballot at the convention, all delegates are released and the super delegates can vote.
TriassicSands
@anarchoRex:
No. They’re the essence of direct democracy. They become undemocratic when the population is too large and/or the electorate too disengaged to participate.
In the US, even if there were a way to make it possible for every voter to attend (imagine the chaos in Iowa), most Democratic voters probably wouldn’t bother. And if they did, they would most likely show up lacking the information they would need to play a constructive role.
in 2020, caucuses should be abandoned.
NotMax
@Dorothy A. Winsor
Not necessarily. Consider cases of candidates who have removed their name from the ballot since the primary. And, AFAIK, any such binding is mooted by any ballot other than the first at the convention proper.
The Moar You Know
@download my app in the app store mistermix: frankly not seeing much evidence of that. Sorry. I know you like the guy. But he’s got some issues with his relationship to the Dem party that can’t be ignored if you’re a “rank & file” Democrat. Which I so consider myself.
anarchoRex
@Kent:
Sorry, this is incorrect. The DNC apportions delegates based on how many Democrats voted for the Dem Presidential Candidate in the most recent presidential election. This is why Cali has x2 the delegates as Texas, despite only having
30%(?)~35% more residents.SFAW
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
I guess it depends on how he behaves if he doesn’t get the nom. If it’s anything other than telling his supporters “OK, I didn’t win, and I’m not happy about it, but the MOST IMPORTANT THING now is for you to work as hard as you can for, and vote for, Biden/Warren/Whomever. Anything less, and you’re giving the election to Trump,” then, yes, Bernie would be helping Trump get elected. I hope he realizes that he should have done this in 2016 as well, but who knows if he will?
Mnemosyne
Also, can we talk about the real culprit in the Iowa fiasco? No, not the Democrats — the media. The MSM’s obsession with having voting information NOWNOWNOW led to the decision to use a barely-tested app that would provide almost instantaneous information to the media … if it had worked. We’re now seeing the results of the media insisting that they MUST have their story immediately and to hell with things like accuracy.
The Democratic Party needs to treat the MSM like the sugar-addled toddlers that they are and refuse to release any results until they have been double-checked and verified.
anarchoRex
@TriassicSands: I understand there are some arguments for caucuses, but I don’t see how they overcome the flaws, like the loss of a private vote, or the high hurdle of access for a lot of demographics.
Martin
@Immanentize: I think Mitt Romney has the right to determine that he should be called Mitt and not Willard. I think women have the right to not be called ‘girl’. I think black men have the right to not be called ‘boy’. I think people have the right to indicate their pronouns.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m incredibly amused by the range of nicknames we come up with for Trump, and for him alone I will make an exception because he is almost uniquely disrespectful of others.
But I don’t see any real benefit to name calling, and I see a lot harm being done when it becomes normalized. There’s a ton of room for criticism without having to go there.
Immanentize
@Mnemosyne: Also, for a week, the media narrative was “three tickets out of Iowa!”
Warren comes in a very strong second, putting Biden in the dust:
“Two tickets out of Iowa!”
The media is really screwing over Warren
And where did Sanders get 25 million in January?
tam1MI
@download my app in the app store mistermix: Latest poll out of New Hampshire has Butiigieg in second place, just a few percentage points behind Bernie (would post the Twitter link, but moderation are the post I tried it in). Looks like he got a pretty good bounce out of Iowa.
Barbara
@Redshift: I thought North Dakota was still on that list, plus a few territories. In any event, huge progress has been made, for sure.
anarchoRex
@Immanentize: He got it from people like me.
West of the Rockies
I’m 58. I can recall no one whose ugly face and pencil-sharpener voice (Trump) is SO DAMN UBIQUITOUS. That loathsome toad is everywhere. It is impossible to express how much I wish he would (to borrow from his vile buddy, Rush) “assume room temperature.”
Kent
@anarchoRex: Sorry, my mistake then. I thought it was population.
Immanentize
@Martin:. I agree with that and I generally stay away from Al name calling — even Trump. But it was a serious question. Is a mom de plume or Guerre an identity? Is my nym? Is MM’s nym when he is doing that cut rate Pope Hat thing?
If I demanded my students call me “Minister of Information” instead of “Professor,” must they? I’ve actually been thinking about this issue for a while.
Cckids
@Martin:
Iowa does help candidates get better at campaigning, in a low-delegate-count place. They’ve got to mingle, answer questions and look voters in the eye; really see them in s personal way.
If you’re an Obama, you take the lessons learned there and scale them up. Warren seems to have that knack as well. Does Pete? Remains to be seen. I don’t think Bernie does, but he’s got his own schtick, so it may not matter.
Immanentize
@anarchoRex: You Mean Republicans? Because that is my best guess.
anarchoRex
@Kent: But yeah I agree. I don’t think we should have a single day national primary. But delegates should get proportioned to candidates based on their share of the national vote total. I think that would go far in cutting down in candidates’ regional strengths.
mrmoshpotato
Ha! Any books you’ve been meaning to read?
anarchoRex
@Immanentize: fuck you
WaterGirl
@gene108: See Jeffro’s explanation in #67. I had the same question as you!
Kent
It’s worse than that. The media is also giving the special Biden and Bloomberg tickets out of Iowa regardless of how poor or nonexistent they were in Iowa. It’s like a game of affirmative action Calvin-ball where the old white guys always get pushed forward regardless of how they actually do.
Martin
I have an alternate idea, since y’all didn’t seem impressed with my idea of just letting the richest person be president (even with the rap battle challenge system). Rather than do this geographically, we should do it demographically. Black women vote first, white men vote last. That would tell us a hell of a lot more anyway.
Gin & Tonic
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin): Just reviewed the list and, damn….
Immanentize
@Barbara: The DNC is penalizing caucus states, threatening not to seat their delegates
To me the biggest problem with caucuses is they are not compliant with the ADA. Disabled folks are almost entirely shut out of that process.
Mnemosyne
@Immanentize:
This is what happens when the media gets a free pass on their misogyny because people just couldn’t get over their right-wing-created Hillary hatred and see how much of what was directed at Hillary was straight up misogyny.
We knew that a second woman candidate would have to face the same barrage of shit because the I’ll vote for A woman, just not THAT woman rule would immediately kick in as soon as a woman candidate started doing well. It’s still dispiriting to see it in action, though. ?
TriassicSands
@Kent:
For reasons Kent points out, a national primary would not give relatively unknown candidates a chance to develop a following.
I don’t think a “random” selection of states (for a given day) would be a good idea. That could result in some terrible groupings. What if CA, TX, NY, FL, and IL all came the same day? Or WY, VT, AK, ND, and SD? The chances are small, but other poor groups could easily result.
Criteria could be devised to provide sensible groups. There are many ways to do that and it shouldn’t take Democrats less than a few hundred years to agree on them. Still, it makes more sense than what we do now.
It might be better to create groups that offer a reasonable representation of voters.
Immanentize
@Martin: I recommended a foot race as well as a rap-off or poetry slam.
Jay
@anarchoRex:
the basic flaws with both Caucuses and Primaries are:
– the States and State Parties set the “rules” which are often arcane remains of The Machine and Smoke Filled Back rooms,
– rules vary from State to State,
– the complexity is in many ways, anti-democratic.
Immanentize
@TriassicSands: But neither do the current caucus primaries. Unknowns — and pretty well-known — were forced out because of cash before the first caucus goer complained.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Maybe. I could add envy, jealousy, and rage.
Jay
Immanentize
@Gin & Tonic: They are the deadly sins because they both eat at your soul and your body and health. I wish there was a god to enforce his rules.
Kraux Pas
AKA traditional american values.
WaterGirl
@download my app in the app store mistermix: You didn’t ask me, but I think that if Bernie can’t win, he would rather see it all burn down and would rather see Trump win than a Democrat.
That’s what I take away from what he says and what his followers say.
Do you think I’m wrong about that?
slightly edited for clarity.
Betty Cracker
I really like Senator Whitehouse and wish he was president and we were discussing the Whitehouse White House right now.
He’s been bringing the fire for a long time! Way before Trump showed up and goaded normally decorous pols to states of sputtering rage! Yet he seems super mild-mannered when he appears on TV, and his very name belies his fiery nature. He should be rechristened Shelador Smashhouse.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: I gave been hoping to catch you — thank you so much for fixing (working toward fixing?) The advert. problem. Thank you thank you thank you.
Love, Imm
chopper
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
hey, i just told you the what and why. i don’t use the term really much any more at all.
them first.
Barbara
@Immanentize: I don’t know if that is the biggest issue, but it certainly crystallizes how exclusionary they are — for the disabled, for those with caregiver responsibilities, those who work nights, or work two jobs, those who don’t speak English, those who lack easy access to transportation, and so on.
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Good one.
Immanentize
@Jay: We really need the Inglorious Bastards these days.
Immanentize
@chopper: that man has tissue paper skin. Maybe fine Japanese tissue paper, but thin as gossamer. And a scold.
WaterGirl
@Boris Rasputin (the evil twin): I had that thought as I typed in “envy”!
Gin & Tonic
@Betty Cracker: On the whole, I am quite pleased by the two gentlemen we have in the Senate. I recall meeting Sheldon ages ago, when he was just thinking of running for Senate – it was in somebody’s living room, about 20 people, that kind of event. I wasn’t terribly impressed, but, boy, he has really grown into the job.
Immanentize
@Barbara: True, but for me it is the classic how do you treat the least (able) among us.
TriassicSands
@Mnemosyne:
I think the second woman (who happens to be my first choice) faces a worse situation. Now that a female has been nominated and lost a race that conventional wisdom says she should have won (ignoring all the “externalities” — the Russians, Comey, emails coverage, etc.), the question of “electability” looms much larger. Since Hillary got some 3 million more votes than Trump, it’s obvious, or should be, that a woman can win. The problem isn’t the candidate’s sex, it’s the Electoral College and the distribution of votes. Being a man doesn’t change that.
Immanentize
@Gin & Tonic: He is also a very good attorney (besides being a very good Senator).
Hey, what’s with Raimondo going with Bloomberg?
PS. Thinking of moving to the Ocean State.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Kent: Also known as a day that ends in Y…
Jay
I added the bold:
Let’s see if it works,
Jay
@Jay:
worked.
Cckids
The problem was that some of Bernie’s delegates changed their registrations back to Independent between the county & state conventions, and therefore couldn’t represent him at the, you know, DEMOCRATIC convention.
That was my first and only caucus. I was a delegate for Hillary, and from caucus to both county & state conventions, the ignorance, bullying, time wasting and all-around fuckery of SOME of the Bernie people was disturbing. Those people are not on our side.
That being said, I also met lots of his supporters who were passionate, smart and excited to get involved. We need them badly.
Betty Cracker
@Gin & Tonic: What’s your opinion of Gov. Raimondo? Saw her on some show endorsing Bloomberg last night, found that puzzling, Googled her and saw her occupation was “venture capitalist” and said, “Okay, then, now I get it.” But that’s all I know about her.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: John is the ad decider, but as I said on a thread earlier this week, I will take the assist for repeatedly contacting John about all the ads and documenting all the issues. :-)
TriassicSands
@anarchoRex:
In 2020 America presidential elections caucuses can’t overcome the flaws.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: I knew you would be sweetly deferential and self-effacing. Fuck that! Hoorah for WaterGirl!!!
Kent
@TriassicSands: Of course the fact that it was men that lost the other 50+ presidential elections is beside the point.
Gin & Tonic
@Betty Cracker: She is definitely from the capitalist wing of the Democratic Party, but the state has certain endemic fiscal problems that really need to be addressed, and I think she’s doing a pretty good job of it. Part of the problem here is that almost all of government has been under one-party control for so long, lots of them are stagnant. A viable opposition is always needed, but when your legislature is like 66-9 (reps) or 33-5 (senators), the party in charge gets fat and lazy and more concerned with keeping the gravy train running. Somewhat explains the number of times we’ve elected an R governor. It also means there are various factions within the party that are at each other’s throats, although all nominally D. I was appalled when they passed Voter ID, but it had to do with a struggle between the (older) black and (newer) Latin/Hispanic constituencies.
But, yeah, Gina is more in the Cory Booker/Deval Patrick Wall Street-friendly mold.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@TriassicSands: They cut out anyone with small children who can not get a babysitter (single parents especially), anyone who does not have transportation, the disabled as many caucus sites are not handicap accessible, and sometimes trying to find where the “satellite” caucus sites will be is not easy. They cut out anyone who works nights or who can not take time off to go to the caucus (why are they on a weekday?) They also allow every one to know how you voted, which for young voters or people with controlling family members/controlling spouses, sounds like a recipe for intimidation.
And for much of U.S. history including 2 decades of the 20th century the “essence of direct democracy” did not allow women, minorities, and minority women to vote at all.
In a vote by mail state like Oregon turnout for Presidential general election varies from 70 to 86%. Primaries around 35 to 46%.
Miss Bianca
@Jay Essel: Any Assateague Island mix tape has gotta have some wild pony sounds mixed in with the birdies or GET OUTTA TOWN, know what I’m sayin’?
Kelly
@TriassicSands:
You’re absolutely correct. In calmer moments I explain to people that term limits are foolish because politics is a profession that requires practice to hone skill.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
Why do these people always go to Portland to protest? Why not ever LA or NYC?
Aleta
@Immanentize: Like they say (about ducks), calm and tranquil, floating on the surface, but you know that underwater she must be working tirelessly. Do wild ducks complain, make demands? No, they make going with the weird currents look normal.
Miss Bianca
@schrodingers_cat:
LOL, I am so stealing that!
Betty Cracker
@Gin & Tonic: Makes sense. Thanks!
Boris Rasputin (the evil twin)
@Gin & Tonic: Consider it part of my area of expertise. Even I don’t see anyone who fits the bill as well as Trump does very often.
Miss Bianca
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
Wait, Pete *won* in Iowa, right? At least, for the moment? How did his investment not work out for him?
Zzyzx
@trollhattan: that understates how bad Coventry was. What a disaster.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: Go me! ?
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Sounds like range shrinkage/contraction, specifically southern range edges moving north but northern range edges staying still. (Perhaps competition with local species? Don’t know.)
Climate change crushes bee populations – Bumblebee habitats are contracting as temperatures rise. (Daniel Cressey, 09 July 2015)
ETA yeah, new paper is paywalled but it is (appears to be) proposing a predictive model for this based on observed temperatures.
TriassicSands
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone:
Your comment seems to imply that I have endorsed caucuses. Perhaps, you should look at my comments more carefully.
It is also possible to list drawbacks for primaries. The real problem in this country is low voter turnout (obviously, caucuses aggravate this problem) and poorly informed voters — especially in mid-term elections, which I would argue are not less important than presidential year elections.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
since the 1980’s, just outside of Portland are a crapload of small towns that range from White Supremacist, to full bore Nazi. Keep in mind that Oregon is a “Whites Only” State, so it has deep roots.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_black_exclusion_laws
Portland however, since the 1960’s has become more liberal and diverse in leaps and bounds, ( except for the ususal suspects like the cops) every year. It’s become both Portlandia, ( keep Portland Weird) and The Peoples Republic of Portland.
So the assorted Nazis and Clingons protest in Portland because:
1: Fuck your Feelings Libtards,
2: the Cops have their back,
3: it’s a cheap public transit ride (from Nazi Washington) or from a Oregon Nazi Village,
4: because the Cops always have the Nazis backs, since the 1970’s, Portland has had a large activist community that engages in mutual support, thus creating the “show” the Nazis want and the Media feeds on.
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They go to Portland because its an Antifa stronghold, and that they are catnip to the antifa people. Not cat cake.
Mnemosyne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Because they all live in Oregon or Washington and it’s a very long drive to LA — like 18+ hours.
They would also get their asses kicked in LA by Black and Latino gangs who wouldn’t be fucking around, and they don’t dare risk that.
TC
@Mnemosyne: The IA State Delegate count that is being used is actually irrelevant to the National Delegates where Bernie and Mayor Pete will both have the same #.
Mnemosyne
@Jay:
It’s actually kind of amazing how fucking lazy American Nazis are. They protest and make trouble inside their own little comfort zones where they can be home in time for dinner.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
like anything, there are layers over layers of complexity.
some of the factors causing bumblebee extinctions and population change are:
-Global Warming
-Habitat loss
– disease/parasite transfer from honeybees
– pesticides
– competition from honeybees and other commercial species
– etc.
one of my spring/fall rituals has always been to wander around with a bottle of sugar water, a spoon, and pick up lethargic bumblebees, warm them on my hands, and give them a good feed, with which to start their day.
Jay
@Mnemosyne:
Antifacist activists have put a ton of work into successfully deplatforming Nazis.
The Daily Stormer in two years has gone from taking in half a million plus a year in “donations” across a broad array of platforms, and being “mainstreamed” on the Internet,
to getting less than $1600 a month in washed bitcoin and driven into the Dark Web.
it’s becoming harder and harder out there for Nazi grifters to the point that many now have to car pool and couch surf. No more first class tickets to CPAC and no more 5 Star Hotels for many.
RedDirtGirl
I’ve rediscovered a great site that has hundreds of recorded sounds to listen/study/sleep to.
https://mynoise.net/noiseMachines.php
taumaturgo
@Immanentize:
Average third-quarter donations
Sanders spokesman Mike Casca also told CNN on Tuesday that about 130,000 people had signed up to make monthly recurring contributions and that 99.9% of its total donor base had not yet given the individual maximum of $2,800 per election — further signs that Sanders is well-positioned to keep up his current fundraising pace.
Individuals who listed their occupation as “teachers” were the most frequent donors to Sanders, according to the campaign, which said, “the three most common employers (of its contributors) were Starbucks, Amazon, and Walmart.”
2020 Election News
The average donation during the third quarter, the campaign said, was $18.07. Since entering the race in February, Sanders has raised $61.5 million, according to the statement. He also transferred an additional $2.6 million to his presidential coffers from other campaign accounts during the third quarter.
PJ
@Mnemosyne: Well, they are Americans, after all. Convenience and comfort take priority over the white-supremacist revolution.
Aziz, light!
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They come to Portland because the very righteous and vocal opposition here always turns up to counter them, created a loud newsworthy clash. Then the news people will shove microphones in their faces and give the Nazis airtime. This clash will be carried nationwide, so more bang for the buck.
Plus what Jay said, although he is exaggerating when he claims our police have their backs. That’s what lefties here believe. I think the truth is that the cops give them cover to prevent violence from breaking out.
If everyone stayed home when the Nazis come to put on their little cosplay show, it wouldn”t make the news at all.
laura
@Betty Cracker: re Gina Raimondo She’s fer shit regarding public pensions and employer contributions. Not. A. Fan.
J R in WV
@anarchoRex:
There you go, showing your inner personality to all of us.
Immanentize is here most every day, telling us about his life, the ups and downs, sharing his opinions and knowledge with us.
You, on the other hand, get all hot and bothered and tell Immanentize “fuck you”!
Good luck back in the pastry file~!!~
J R in WV
@Immanentize:
Also not a private vote, everyone can see who is supporting whom, and if you can’t spend all evening at your local caucus, there ain’t no absentee caucauses available!!
There is a large and excellent set of reasons we have private balloting in elections. Because people have been mobbed, beaten and killed because of their vote just for one big reason. Just because that isn’t happening so often today doesn’t make it irrelevant. Those who forget history, etc, etc.
J R in WV
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Because they know they won’t be arrested, charged, and convicted in Portland OR, while in most places they would already be in jail… for a long, long time.
C Stars
@RedDirtGirl: that’s lovely, thank you
J R in WV
@taumaturgo:
There is an inconsistency in this sentence; I don’t understand how someone could type it without creating a painful headache.
If teachers are the most common donors, then the most common employers cannot be “Starbucks, Amazon and Walmart”… logically the most common employer must be school districts it teachers are the most common donors. If the most common employer is Starbucks, then the most common donor must be barista… or Walmart greeter, or Amazon warehouse product picker. But it cannot be teacher!
RedDirtGirl
@C Stars: Very welcome. I’ve been going to sleep to sounds of thunder and rain. Rain on a tent is a good one too.
Jay
@Aziz, light!:
If everybody stayed home when the Nazis show up, you would have a lot more light rail murders, parking lot beatings and Cider House attacks.
Jay
@J R in WV:
Yup. Double Yup.
Jay
@J R in WV:
and, sadly, yes.
the Proud Boys built a sniper nest in Portland.
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/10/16/33984011/members-of-patriot-prayer-brought-loaded-firearms-to-roof-before-august-protest/comments/42