Were I a gambling man, and I am not, but were I am gambling man, I would, RIGHT NOW, put my money on Buttigieg/(Harris/Castro/Booker) as the nominees.
I know Biden thinks South Carolina is going to save him, but I think Buttigieg is going to pick up a lot of votes. People I know who are not interested in politics usually keep asking me what I think about him. I really think a lot of people who would have gone for Klobuchar, Biden, Delaney, Moulton, the entire lump of centrist blah democrats, are going to go to Buttigieg. I know I am in a rare bubble of lefties, but outside of that bubble, there are a lot of people who think that the son of teachers who went to a good school and served in the military and seems polite and well-mannered and who worked for a fancy consulting firm is a pretty a-ok thing for their kid to aspire to and not bad qualities to have in a President.
I still don’t think Bernie is going to win, because while his support is deep, it is narrow. Yes, a lot of people will vote for him, but I fail to see how he expands his base beyond what it is already. He’s just not the kind of candidate where people who were pro-Harris or pro-Castro are going to say “OK, they are out- guess I will go with Bernie.” In fact, if anything, I see Bernie losing more votes to Warren as the race goes on, but neither of them overtaking the moderate wing.
Who knows, I may be wrong. As has been stated repeatedly to the point of almost parody, I am going to vote for any of them over Trump, and I am personally biased towards Warren. But that is what I am feeling today. And as you all know, that may change next week.
*** Update ***
I have been reliably informed that I completely overlooked the fact that Buttigieg polls HORRIBLY with minorities. Which he does. That’s why I mentioned Biden and South Carolina, where the actually Democratic base lives. But a lot can change between now and then. Which is why this was not an endorsement of the aforementioned ticket, but a bet. I believe I also noted that I am not a gambling man, so I’m not even putting money on it.
Roger Moore
Especially if his campaign keeps working as hard as it currently is to alienate everyone who doesn’t already support him.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
And Buttigieg will totally get up Trump’s nose, what is there not to like?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Yep – my thoughts have been along the same lines. I’m warming to Buttigieg myself.
A “Pete & Liz” ticket would do well, I think.
MattF
I just keep recalling the Jeb! troll who hung around here in 2016, insisting that Brinks trucks full of cash were, as we speak, backing into Jeb!’s driveway. The unexpected can and will happen.
Zzyzx
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: this will sound weird coming from me who has never been sold that much on Warren, but I’d reverse the Pete/Liz ticket.
MJS
I don’t see it. I don’t think you can win the nomination without the support of African-Americans, and my understanding is, Pete has zero. Or has that changed, and I’m just not aware of it?
Richard Guhl
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: Pete would definitely need a more mature politician to give heft to a ticket he leads. Since he’s weak with persons of color, Cory Booker might make a sympatico pair.
satby
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I don’t see Warren giving up the Senate to be anyone’s VP. But I’d love a Buttigieg / Castro or Buttigieg / Jeffries or a Buttigieg / Porter ticket. Face it, our bench has a LOT of talent.
download my app in the app store mistermix
Yeah, I’m not seeing Pete, but it could happen. Why not Klobuchar if centrists are going to unite? She’s been growing on me.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Roger Moore: Yeah, that’s a bit of a problem.
Baud
It seems like moderate Dems are search for a not-Biden, which is not good for Biden. My concern is that they ultimately land on Bloomberg. Hard to see how it ultimately plays out.
?BillinGlendaleCA
I’ve only seen 3 ads for candidates out here in California(I only watch the 11pm news here in LA) and that’s Bernie, Steyer, and Bloomberg.
Emma from FL
Great. One more white boy to the rescue. Even if he has the political chops of an amoeba and the multicultural instincts of a groundhog.
Oh, I’ll vote for him. The other choice is unthinkable. But his election will put my retiring to Merida from “maybe” to “as soon as possible.”
Mart
I dunno about Mayor Pete, his votes in IA were all boonie counties with 35 Dems living in them. My favorite TV clip was a woman who voted for Mayor Pete, upon learning he was married to a man, was visibly shaken and said, oh no, we can’t have that in the White House. Guess she is OK with fascists in the White House, but not gay men. I do not see how Wilmer or Liz get over the “socialist” tag (yes I know – bullshit). Pretty depressed, think the fascists have won. Wife has is on the ledge ready to jump.
schrodingers_cat
Not a lefty or a Pete B fan. But he impressed me with his Iowa performance.
I prefer Amy K to Pete B.
I am ABBS
PsiFighter37
There’s no way Pete gets enough African-American support to make a difference. And if AAs have to choose between non-Biden lesser of evils who have had problems with African-Americans and their police departments while being mayor, they will go with Bloomberg.
satby
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: oh god, Pete has had excellent comebacks to Trump’s comments. The “inspired a literary reference” still cracks me up!
kindness
We’ve already seen the Republican play book. They are already calling Bernie a Communist. He isn’t but that is what they say and the ‘less informed citizens’ out there only have to hear that before they run for their guns. Now I myself will vote for whom ever the Democrats nominate because Trump is Satan. Will those same people who freak out over a ‘communist’ freak equally over a gay man? Shit I don’t know. Maybe. Maybe not. The question isn’t whether I’d vote for him though as I clearly would if he won the nomination. It’s those damn middle folk we need to win. I’m voting Liz Warren in the primary, that’s all I know.
PsiFighter37
Also curious to hear why Cole is biased against Warren. Is it because she claimed Native American heritage that is rightfully his? It would be irresponsible not to speculate.
VFX Lurker
I received my vote-by-mail ballot here in California this Tuesday.
A candidate needs 15% or more of the vote to win any California delegates, which rules out anyone not named Sanders, Biden or Warren (who have each polled above 15% here in California). Sanders has the most field offices of any candidate here in California and polls the highest, but he will never get my March 3rd primary vote. That leaves me with Biden and Warren.
A friend plans to vote for Biden. Her top priority is defeating Trump, and she thinks Biden is best equipped to defeat Trump. I also acknowledge that President Warren means losing her Senate seat to a Republican, since the Republican governor of Massachusetts will appoint a Republican replacement.
I like Warren, but the Senate math says “vote for Biden.”
psycholinguist
I like Buttigieg and Stacey Abrams
MisterForkbeard
I’m sort of expecting the same thing. Buttigieg is going to pick up a lot of support quickly. Bernie MIGHT match that, but I’m not sure.
But I’m worried about Pete’s AA support. I think they’d vote for him (if not enthusiastically) in the general, but in the Primary I think he’s going to be a hard sell. If they start to desert Biden I think it’s more likely they move to Bernie, but I really don’t know.
opiejeanne
@Baud: Mike sent me a letter today! Snail mail. I’m very flattered, and relieved that he didn’t ask for money. It was refreshing.
Cacti
Regardless of what happens with Biden, I think JC is underestimating how little black voters think of Pete Buttigieg, due to his bungling of SBPD racism.
John Cole
@PsiFighter37:
Martin
Pete is still polling below his peak, even after the Iowa bump. We’ll see what polls this weekend reveal. Bloomberg has jumped more in the polls than Pete has. I’m interpreting that as the ‘anyone but Trump’ voters ditching Biden.
Remember, all of these primaries are proportional, and so long as nobody is winning the majority of a states delegates, they can’t possibly reach the 1990 they need to clinch the nomination. So long as we have at least 4 candidates taking any number of delegates (Bernie, Pete, Joe, Liz, and possibly Bloomberg once we get to Super Tuesday – Amy seems to be far enough back to not pick up delegates as of the moment) then it’s a brokered convention. Nobody is projected to take a majority through Super Tuesday. That leads to two considerations:
Remember, that’s when the superdelegates kick in. That pulls Biden and Warren up quite a bit, provided they can stay funded and competitive against Mike’s unlimited budget.
If I were betting, I’d go Bloomberg/(Harris/Castro).
Not sure how I feel about that.
NotMax
And, also like a cesspool, full of sh*t.
Kent
Honestly if Buttigieg consolidates the “anybody but Bernie” votes in the early primaries as you suggest he might then he could easily get overwhelmed by a Bloomberg surge Super Tuesday and later. Bloomberg serves the same basic purpose as Buttigieg in that he’s not Sanders and he is basically a Rorschach test in that you see what you want in him as he doesn’t have a long history of national policy positions (other than gun control and soda taxes).
If Buttigieg takes out Warren and Biden then he is pretty damn vulnerable to getting taken out by Bloomberg with a sea of money when the campaigns shift entirely to TV as that would mean Buttigieg’s support is pretty weak and more for lack of better alternatives. He is most definitely not Obama with the Hope and Change message that people found so inspirational in 2008.
Cacti
I saw that Bernie just released a new ad entitled “Hope”.
Seriously?
GFY, Wilmer.
JMG
John, your guess as to what’s going to happen is as good as anyone else’s, especially mine.
clay
I haven’t really paid much attention to Pete, but here are my thoughts:
1) When I saw him on Colbert many months ago, he impressed the hell out of me. He can speak eloquently and passionately about themes both narrow and broad.
2) A quick glance at one of those “compare where candidates stand on the issues” shows that he is a solid liberal on most just about everything.
3) This attempt to paint him as some sort of Republican-in-disguise or neolib sellout strikes me as dishonest. He’s probably within the center of the Democratic party, but that it NOT the same thing as being a centrist.
4) It’s worth noting that every successful Democratic Presidential candidate for the past 60 years (minus the special case of LBJ in ‘64) has had youth and vitality on their side. (Ok, Carter wasn’t young, exactly, but was younger and more energetic than Ford.)
5) His election would be a huge deal to a group that has had their rights assaulted over the past three years. I feel the historic nature of his run is being severely overlooked.
6) Yes he lacks experience, but he’s smart, ambitious, and wants to succeed. He will work hard to get it right.
All in all, I’m warming to him.
jl
I’ve been adding up the poll aggregates and fivethirtyeight predictions, and when I add up the more progressive candidates (who I take to be Sanders, Warren, Yang and Steyer) and the centrists, I get a 50-50 split.
I also think, from look at major moves in the polling that there is less competition between Sanders and Warren than seems like most people think. I see movement between Sanders into into and out of one kind of centrist, and Warren into and out of another kind of centrist. Warren much more appealing to a different kind of centrist than Sanders, Warren seems to appeal to wonkier ex-Hillary and Gore type voters. And there seems to be a segment of support that moves from both Sanders and Warren to Buttigeig and back.
Much of movement between Sanders and centrists seems to be into and out of Biden and, now, Bloomberg. I wonder if there is a large segment of voters who really thinks only an older ‘whitish’ type person can be president. ‘Whitish’ because Sanders and Bloomberg are Jewish, and a growing segment of the population seems ready to kick them out of the club, sadly.
Also, I saw someplace that NV culinary union is coming out hard against Sanders because of his stand on M4A to protect what they perceive as a net loss of benefits from their much better than average union health care plans. I think they are mistaken, but they have decided. Maybe Warren can pick up a lot of them. She has signaled much more flexibility in accommodating private plans, and her approach can grandfather in good union plans into M4A without it seeming a waffle or pandering.
And, as noted on this here blog earlier, Warren very substantially outperformed expectations in Iowa.
So, I think the outcome of the primary is still wide open. So I won’t bother to speculate.
Kent
If Bloomberg managed to pick an early VP candidate like a Harris or Klobuchar I think he would instantly surge and be incredibly hard to beat.
Same thing actually for Sanders. If he picked an establishment younger woman like Harris or Klobuchar as VP early on then he would be incredibly tough to beat.
Whether Harris or Klobuchar want to play that game is an entirely different issue.
Morzer
So far Buttigieg plays quite well with white mid-western Democrats who don’t like Sanders or Warren and wish that Biden were twenty years younger. Does he have a base beyond that? I suspect not.
My great fear in all of this is that Sanders is going to get a plurality of say 35% of voters and try to force himself on the Democratic party as the nominee with the help of every pop-eyed far left conspiracy theorist from Alaska to Louisiana. What follows will be extremely ugly, including a re-elected Trump and a second term that makes the horrors endured thus far seem like an oasis of calm enlightenment.
Cacti
They came out against Warren too, for the same reason.
M4A
NotMax
My take is that Buttigieg is currently flavor of the month, without sufficient underpinning favor to be put on the regular menu.
WaterGirl
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
What does that even mean?
M31
@VFX Lurker: in MA there needs to be a special election within 160 days of a vacancy, so I assume that if Warren wins she’ll instantly resign to shorten the interval.
rikyrah
rikyrah
Pete is at 0-2% with Black voters.
There’s a reason for that ??
jl
@Cacti: Thanks for info. Then I think the culinary union has its head up someplace dark. But they decided what they decided. Might pull Biden out of the tank. Or maybe not.
I can’t find a detailed news story, and I’d like to know if this was a leadership decision, or due to rank and file poll or ballot. That might a big difference in how much impact the announcement has for the NV caucus.
WaterGirl
@PsiFighter37: Is that a joke?
WaterGirl
@VFX Lurker: If I were you I would hold my ballot to see how things shake out for the next few weeks.
Mai naem mobile
My nephew is is a Dem but not a political junkie at all is Buttigieg curious. I haven’t talked to him since Christmas and I didnt ask him why because i figured it would be Kamala/Warren/Biden. I’ve seen two Bloomberg bumper stickers here in Phoenix. Also seen 3 Warren stickers over the past severit’s worth. One Biden sticker. Saw one Kamala sticker a while back. Lots of what look like old ’16 Bernie stickers and a few Trumpov 2020 stickers. Take that for what its worth. After watching that Iowa clip from the female bigot who didnt know Pete was gay I am wondering how many others are out there. I hope Warren gets a second wind somewhere but I wonder if Klobuchar picks up Warren’s support if Warren collapses. Yeah, yeah I know they’re not the same politically and Klobuchar is not Sara Palin so it’s not a vagina thing. I also think Bidens people might go with Klobuchar if he and Warren both collapse.
Morzer
@WaterGirl: It means he’s the new Coke.
WaterGirl
@psycholinguist: Me, too.
I like anyone and Stacey Abrams.
piratedan
will actually wait until some votes to be cast before I lose hope about Warren’s candidacy.
So far we’ve had one clusterfuck of a caucus that gave hope to an underdog who resides geographically close by who would be simpatico with a large number of suburban white voters that involve zero urban areas that is a predominantly dominated by agriculture.
So I’m not gonna extrapolate that as indicative of a whole helluva lot, despite the Media’s horse race narratives that are completely lacking in substance and education of the potential voters, regarding who these people are and what they stand for (per usual)
rikyrah
@Cacti:
They are not wrong
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: People may hate their health insurance company, but they do prefer the known as opposed to what the GOP will frame as going to the DMV for their healthcare.
rikyrah
Trying again ?
e julius drivingstorm
@WaterGirl: Me three.
opiejeanne
@jl: WA’s primary is a week after Super Tuesday, so I’ll be voting for whoever you guys choose (and Gawd, I hope it’s not Sanders) Or maybe not. I’m interested in Biden, Warren, and Klubuchar in no particular order. I wanted Harris
If Bloomberg is who they choose, I won’t have any reservations because the alternative is The AntiChrist.
PsiFighter37
@John Cole: My bad. Completely misread your original post. That’s what happens when you’ve had the afternoon (almost) from hell with an infant.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
I would not bet on anything right now! Even if I were a betting woman.
I hope we get the strongest possible team for the general.
satby
Article from 3 days ago about Pete in South Carolina, with some comments from AA supporters.
He has black supporters, but will have to grow his support there.
jl
@piratedan: Corporate media performance has been miserable at anything other than gossip, a funnel for attacks and schemes and posturing by various interest groups they like (corporate and centrist), and hack political operatives.
Hard for political junkies like us to believe, but a lot of people only tune into what is going on in the primary until just before a primary contest comes to their state. And these middle to low info people are just as informed after watching mass media than if they took a long nap. Maybe less since after a nap, their heads would not be injected with nonsense and horseshit.
Cacti
@?BillinGlendaleCA: In the case of union members, many of them like their bargained for benefits very much, and are very protective of them. Even from those with otherwise good intentions.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Morzer: We all know how well that went over.
zhena gogolia
I’ve said this before, but when I saw Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney strip the smarmy smile off Sondland’s face, I got the fantasy ticket of Buttigieg/Maloney in my head — two handsome, brilliant, happily married veterans who happen to be gay.
I know it won’t happen, but it would be funny as hell to see the debates!
zhena gogolia
@Morzer:
Wow, you’re back?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@schrodingers_cat:
What’s your opinion of Warren? I used to be very anti-Biden, but he’s grown on me. Same with Amy K. Honestly, any of the candidates with the exception of Sanders (I’d of course still vote for him if he were the nominee) would be fine with me. Even Bloomberg if the alternative is four more years of Trump
Spanky
It’s a long time until the convention. The only votes are from one caucus and a ton of Russian trolls ‘n bots are flooding social media. My only prediction is that it won’t be Pete.
Roger Moore
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I think there is a special case for unions that have negotiated health insurance benefits. They’ve spent a lot of their limited negotiating leverage making sure they get good health insurance, most likely accepting less in wages and other benefits to do so. They’re not going to be happy with a system that throws away that effort.
rikyrah
VFX Lurker
That’s what I’m doing right now. I’m still waiting for endorsements from local newspapers, too.
Good to know. Still, that does not guaranteed a Dem wins that seat (ex: Scott Brown vs Martha Coakley).
Morzer
https://progresspond.com/2020/02/07/bernies-coalition-doesnt-overlap-with-dems-house-majority/
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@rikyrah:
Huh. That’s weird. I wonder why Mayor Stop and Frisk is pulling ahead of Sanders, as much as he has his own hang-ups when it comes to POC?
jl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I have grave doubts about Biden and Sanders re how effective they would be at implementing their very different policy proposals after taking office.
In terms of effective attacks on Trump during the election, though, I think Biden and Sanders have had the best approaches. Either of them with Harris as VP would make an extremely effective ticket at savaging Trump, with effective, true and accurate arguments.
I think Klobuchar is by far the best centrist on pure policy grounds, but have grave doubts about the adequacy of her policies, and grave reservations about her electoral talent on the national stage. I don’t think the country is into her very tired centrist pitch of hard choices for ordinary people and ‘no we can’t do big things’ pitch.
Morzer
@zhena gogolia:
It’s an unconfirmed rumor.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Roger Moore: While they may be more sensitive to the benefits than the average worker, I see that it’s a much more widely held opinion and one that can be easily exploited by the GOP.
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah:
Here’s my interpretation: Black voters are pragmatic. Trump must be beaten. Who has more money than God? Bloomberg.
I say this because I have a lot of pragmatism in me, and Trump must be beaten, and I can’t stand Bloomberg but he has more money than God.
But I’m a terrible political analyst.
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah:
Oh, man that is disgusting.
Cacti
@rikyrah: Bernie sure does love him some dog whistles.
Freemark
Being in PA this will be over by my primary. But I will do what I did on 2016. Work to get whomever the nominee is elected even if it is Bloomberg.
zhena gogolia
@Morzer:
Well, I’m glad about it!
Roger Moore
@rikyrah:
Yeah, Bernie. We know just what you mean when you say “rural” and “urban”, and it’s about who’s living there, not where they live.
feebog
At this point, with Harris out, I’m with Biden or Warren. I don’t care which, I’m not looking for ideology, but someone with enough political experience to reverse the damage that has and will be done in four years of Trump. That ain’t Pete. Yeah, he is super intelligent, and I think he would kick ass in a debate with Trump, assuming there are any. But his experience is thin, and quite frankly not particularly impressive. Sanders would be a disaster and would likely lose to Trump if he doesn’t keel over with a second heart attack first. And if Sanders did pick a woman candidate, odds are it would be Gabbard, ugh.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Morzer: This is Balloon Juice, we’re good with unconfirmed rumors here.
satby
I know I’m an outlier here, but I’m not a Klobuchar fan. Possibly biased by the mean boss stories, but she does nothing for me. Evidently she’s not doing much for other people either. But, I’d vote for her over Bernie, so there’s that.
zhena gogolia
@satby:
I’m with you — I’d prefer her to Sanders, but that’s about it.
Elizabelle
Not a gambler. Gonna see how things play out.
Meanwhile, am enjoying photos of this gorgeous house near in Los Angeles. Love everything in it but the bedspreads. Los Angeles Times. (Paywall!) I would live in the pool house if they let me. Kitchen’s a tad dark …
Hollywood veterans list restored Spanish Colonial Revival near Beverly Grove for sale
khead
It’s not quite exactly who I want…… but if we are gonna bet on it I’ll take a flyer on Biden/Castro for $100, Alex. Betting is a lot different than wishing.
Morzer
@zhena gogolia:
doffs non-MAGA cap in your esteemed direction
Cacti
@Roger Moore: I’m also a bit confused about the urban communities “doing just fine” comment, since Wilmer also said previously that Baltimore is like a third world country.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@feebog: My guess would be Nina Turner.
NotMax
@VFX Lurker
Coakley was almost a uniquely unattractive* and disinterested candidate, both a belch from the “It’s my turn” school and merchandise born of partisan complacency.
*Not speaking cosmetically.
Elizabelle
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Oh please! (wailing in background)
Miss Bianca
@rikyrah: veeeerrrrrrry interesting, as Arte Johnson used to say.
Morzer
@satby: I don’t have strong views either way on Amy Klob, but I think that Iowa pretty much ended her as a candidate with prospects. If she were smart, she’d quit now and throw her support to whichever moderate candidate she thinks has the best chance of beating Sanders.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Cacti:
Somebody else said something similar.
rikyrah
???
Morzer
@NotMax:
Coakley was the unhealthy broccoli candidate.
Chris Johnson
I would absolutely vote for Buttigieg and hope for the best, if I had to.
I guess we’ll see. More will be revealed.
Miss Bianca
@rikyrah: r u fucking kidding me
Emma
@rikyrah: And people wonder why he polls badly with AAs.
Humdog
@rikyrah: Do you know why, rikyrah?
I wonder where AA voters will turn if Biden continues to lose steam. I imagine they have very good arguments against both of the mayors, or all three mayors I should say.
delk
Pete sure got the children of the rose all riled up on Twitter today.
Roger Moore
@rikyrah:
It’s not so much that electability only applies to what white voters want as it is a justified belief that blacks (and other minorities who have done badly under Trump) don’t have a lot of choice. It’s only dudebros who believe they’ll do OK under Trump who have the privilege of considering abandoning the Democrats in November.
rikyrah
guachi
Scrolled down to comment without reading other comments but…
Buttigieg isn’t my first or second or even third choice but he’s very much a not-Trump in a way that’s really easy to explain to people.
I suspect he knows his limitations (can’t appeal to black voters) and if he wins the nomination it’s because he did enough to overcome that.
The major issue I have is I don’t think he has what it takes to repair Washington. And by “repair Washington” I mean the nuts and bolts of hiring competent people and repairing agencies. He’d need a heavyweight for a VP.
Butter Emails
@rikyrah: I’ll bite. Why is an old white guy who supported stop and frisk while mayor polling higher than Bernie, Warren and Harris before she left the race?
trollhattan
In my hyper-local democracy lab I can report the first-time-ever voter is pondering straying from the Mayor Pete camp over to the Warren camp, despite having a selfie taken with Mayor Pete.
Spouse’s hair is sufficiently on fire with Trump-caused rage I think she’s going to write in Vlad the Impaler, because nobody left is going to beat Trump. Or something like that.
That’s my report; our ballots arrived last night so maybe I’ll vote this weekend if I can figure out the propositions and dog catcher races.
trollhattan
@Butter Emails:
I can name a quarter-billion reasons, each ending in “llar.”
Kent
I tend to agree. I like him but I’m worried he isn’t the candidate to take on Trump. Where he has said things that have riled progressives, like “we need ideas from the heartland not the beltway” and “we can’t afford x….” I think they are probably more throwaway platitudes that because of his youth and inexperience he doesn’t entirely understand the long contentious history and how those words might play.
In any event, I think the job of the next president is going to be 49% going around the world repairing our international standing and alliances, and 49% putting the federal bureaucracy back together and only 2% actual big legislation. So most of the platform ideas of all the candidates is just positioning.
Elizabelle
@trollhattan: Whoa. I would so wait until closer to primary day. So much can change.
Martin
@VFX Lurker: We haven’t had a CA poll in nearly 2 weeks but if Bloomberg has gained in CA comparable to his national gain in that time, he’s probably polling over 15% now, and Warren may be under 15%. Pete might be over 10% – still a bit early to fully measure what kind of bounce he’s getting out of Iowa.
debbie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Well, you didn’t ask me, but anyone who says they’re enraged or dismayed by the economic inequality and normalization of predatory behavior that’s taken over this country but does not support Warren and will not stand up for her is full of shit. Elizabeth Warren has done more good for this country in the past decade than the entire GOP has done since Eisenhower. Even more than Biden.
Kent
Because 2% of people polled even know what “stop and frisk” is much less that Bloomberg was responsible but 99% of people polled have seen lots of pretty Bloomberg anti-Trump ads during the SuperBowl.
khead
@Butter Emails:
It’s this newfangled thing called TeeVee.
Morzer
@debbie: Has Wilmer even managed to get a post office renamed in the last decade?
jl
@Morzer: “Coakley was the unhealthy broccoli candidate.”
Thanks. Good image.
I think Klobuchar, for some bizarre reason, chooses to present herself as the unhealthy broccoli candidate, boiled until it’s gray, candidate. She doesn’t need to. Her centrist policies are better than Biden’s IMHO. Might be too late now, but I hope she changes her mind.
Jackie
@opiejeanne: Me, too! I got mine Tues. Dear Jackie….. signed Michael. No requests for money. I’m in the Tri-Cities. I’ve never gotten presidential nominee letters/postcards before. Lol
Mai naem mobile
@rikyrah: because they’ve seen the Bloomberg ads. I haven’t seen one Sanders ad in AZ. I’ve seen several Bloomberg ads and they’re well done. The nurse practitioner one is a good ad. If it comes down to Bloomberg vs Sanders by March here I’ll go with Bloomberg. because he will drown Trumpov with ads everywhere like he did with the NY mayoral race. I also have not liked Bernie even before he pulled the crap against HRC. I’ll vote for him in the general but I still thlthink he is a phoney useful idiot.
Kent
EVERYBODY wants to pick a winner in November. Blacks, whites, Hispanics, LGBTs, staights, etc. etc.
Problem is, no one knows who that is.
The number of DudeBro types for any candidate who’d rather burn the place down than support a winner is pretty small I’m guessing. But unfortunately always large enough to flip the election (Florida 2000, Wisconsin 2016).
Martin
@rikyrah: Not surprised. Black voters are probably about ready to vote for Strom Thurmond if he’d get Trump out of office.
PsiFighter37
@Martin: The NYT had an article about California, focused entirely on Bloomberg and Sanders. I don’t think any of the other candidates have the money to meaningfully play – and frankly, Bloomberg can absolutely outspend Wilmer if that is what it comes to.
I am starting to think, more and more, that this comes down to a contested convention. I don’t see how anyone breaks from the pack at this point, and what I worry most about is that Wilmer wins the popular vote – and uses that as a cudgel by which to try and gaslight the DNC.
trollhattan
@Elizabelle:
My middle name is “Danger.” :-)
Need to parse the thing for all the oddball races, but I’m voting for a woman for president, come hell or high water.
Kent
I think she was trying to stand out and contrast against Warren and Sanders in the debates. Unfortunately I guess the centrist reflex is to be about what you DON’T like or CAN’T afford, rather than to stand out for specific policies that are positive yet more uniquely centrist. Which I honestly don’t know what they would be. Infrastructure? Green Jobs?
Contrasting yourself against Warren and Sanders automatically makes you look like the “eat your Spinach” candidate because you are mostly against things, not for them.
PsiFighter37
@Kent: Picking an early VP candidate is not gonna happen. It’s a sign of desperation IMO.
If Bloomberg somehow does win the nomination, though, I think he picks Cory Booker.
Martin
@Kent:
Unfortunately, that’s not true. There are a lot of Democrats (at least, a lot of vocal ones) that want a Democrat that will say their magic words even if they can’t actually get elected or get something done. They aren’t so much about beating Trump as they are beating the DNC, or Hillary, etc.
Remember the ‘kill the bill’ left? They were explicitly calling for Obama to lose that fight. Trump isn’t the only one who is driven by grievance.
Belafon
I can think of plenty of people, especially those who have “urban” used as a slur against, who are not doing just fine.
Martin
@Mai naem mobile: Tons of Bloomberg ads here in CA. Some Steyer, though they’ve slowed down. Saw my first Bernie ad yesterday. Nothing from the other candidates.
TC
Here is MSNBCs Dr Jason Johnson’s take
https://twitter.com/ThiaBallerina/status/1225423146494251009
Morzer
@PsiFighter37: I don’t think Wilmer wins the popular vote – but I could see him using a plurality to unleash his Bernietrolls and try to force himself on the Democratic party as its nominee.
Mai naem mobile
@debbie: read the James Carville interview on Vox. He’s got some good advice for Warren and some good big picture advice. I think his comment about Binyamin Applebaum is dumb but he makes some good points about messaging.
Martin
@Belafon: Yeah – and that’s where the Democrats are. And Pete’s ‘homeland values’ pitch falls pretty flat here on the front lines of climate change. The world can’t afford any more heartland values.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
A brokered convention is pretty likely, or a pre-convention deal, a deal that would almost certainly require a Veep announcement to actually work.
For that deal to be an option, you need the right combination of candidates, who can get to 50%+1 delegates on the first ballot…
Morzer
@Kent: Your remarks about eating spinach have created an image in my head of Popeye the Wilmer Man. Alarming.
Baud
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
what happened in 1988. No one got a majority that year.
HRA
OT Sondland has been called back from his post as EU Ambassador.
khead
@PsiFighter37:
Hmm. I’d take $20 on Bloomberg/Booker. Longer odds than my previous bet in this thread. Plus, I just like to gamble.
Elizabelle
@HRA: Yup. WaPost: Gordon Sondland has been fired.
Roger Moore
@Kent:
I think the issue is how pressing different people see getting rid of Trump as being. Most people demand we get rid of Trump yesterday, if not sooner. There’s a certain category of douchebro, though, who cares more about getting a True Progressive elected than they do about the amount of damage that gets done between now and when it finally happens, largely because most of the damage will fall on other people. These are the same people who believe in “heightening the contradictions” as a way of convincing people to vote for them. Unfortunately, those idiots are trying to hold the rest of us hostage by not voting for the eventual nominee unless it’s their guy.
trollhattan
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Am at the June 1880 convention part of Grant’s biography, where Garfield is nominated on the 36th ballot. My heart canna take any such nonsense at this point.
Roger Moore
@HRA:
The first heads going up on pikes are the ones Trump has easiest access to.
Baud
@trollhattan: Pre-TV conventions were wild as shit.
Kent
Maybe so. Dangling names might have the same effect. Regarding Booker? Bloomberg has to win back the upper midwest rust belt, WI, MI, and PA. Or else win FL and AZ. I’m not sure that Booker gives him that being from NJ. Klobuchar would, or a young Biden type, whoever that may be. Doesn’t have to be one of the failed candidates. Someone like Tammy Duckworth would be badass.
trollhattan
@Elizabelle:
He’ll just have to go home and weep into his Scrooge McDuck cash piles. Pity.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Morzer: Remember, if voting at the DNC goes to a second ballot, the super-delegates(ominous music plays in the background) get to vote.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@HRA: Friday is now purge day.
trollhattan
@Baud:
Yep. To read accounts is to be boggled. “It’s ‘retail politics,’ but bring a bat and a gun just in case.”
VFX Lurker
@NotMax: That does not reassure me that a Democrat will win a special election for Warren’s seat after Warren vacates it.
538 had Warren slipping to 14.8% and Buttigieg at 7.5% in its latest California polls, though it still predicts delegate pickups for five candidates (Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg).
I’m waiting for endorsements from local papers, but I’m also tempted to wait until after the South Carolina primary on February 29th before casting my own vote.
Ella in New Mexico
It’s cool to try on our potential candidates and all but I don’t think anyone should be predicting anything right now. This is gonna be the most dynamic primary season we may have had in a long time and events on the ground are literally changing by the hour as it is, much less in 2 or three months.
Iowa was a fluke and in no way represents the nation right now. Neither will New Hampshire. Listening to the “Conventional Wisdom Crowd” pretend that it’s still a bell-weather state like in the Good Ole Days is annoying. Those days are gone because nothing is stable in our politics anymore. This is uncharted territory now.
trollhattan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Infrastructure Week, now featuring paving America with castaway federal employees.
hitchhiker
All I know is that every Dem candidate and all of their surrogates should answer every question, no matter what it is, with comments like these:
Did you hear that trump thinks the economy is perfect? He likes it when amazon pays less in taxes than you pay for your prime subscription. He likes it when wages are stuck at LOW and Wall Street just gets richer. Democrats are the party that pushes for higher wages, because that’s what moves the real economy, not the stock portfolio.
We cannot let him get away with his MY GREAT ECONOMY message. It’s all he has to run on, and it has to be attacked with energy and commitment, 24/7, from now until it’s over.
Know how many farmers lost their farms in Wisconsin during trump?
Know how much further in debt we are since trump?
Know how many steel factories closed under trump? Coal mines? Know who walked away with fat fat fat wallets? It wasn’t the miners, and it wasn’t the steelworkers.
Etc.
There’s no point nitpicking the candidates over m4a or free college or past bullshit. One enemy, one message. trump has been an economic disaster for most Americans, which is why he’s never managed to win the approval of even half of us. He needs to go before there’s no middle class left.
Elizabelle
Nancy “Smash” Pelosi has an op ed in the WaPost. Laying out how the GOP did not do its job.
McConnell and the GOP Senate are accomplices to Trump’s wrongdoing
And it ends big:
Baud
@Ella in New Mexico: Agree.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
OT:
I’ve been looking at purchasing different reusable particulate respirators and gas masks for personal protection against the novel Coronavirus, just in case. I know that the numbers of new cases have slowed and the vast majority of them are in Mainland China and is mild in most cases. However, young people with strong immune systems have died from this thing and I don’t want to take any chances that I might spread this to my elderly grandmother who lives alone if an epidemic happens here.
I’ve been looking at the 3M™ Half Facepiece Reusable Respirator 6300/07026(AAD) Large 24 EA/Case with http://3M 7093 Respirator Particulate Filter P100 Rating Respiratory Protection for Use with 3M Facepieces 5000, 6000, 6500, 7000, 7500, 7800S, FF-400 Series
The P100 rating should more than sufficient to protect against viral aerosols if the worst comes to pass and we’re facing a global pandemic. A conclusion of a scientific journal article about the novel Coronavirus has said that it can mutate into a deadlier form. It’s already very contagious, with an R0 of 2.2 (this could decrease as more milder cases are identified).
In addition, I’ve looked at Mira Safety’s CM-6M Full Face Gas Mask with MIRA Safety DotPro 320 40mm NATO filters that meet EU regulations that cost 40 bucks a piece.
The gas masks are very expensive, while the particulate respirators (and filters) are a very cheap alternative
What do you all think?
trollhattan
O/T Neighbor-to-neighbor relationships in commie California.
Tracy mayor sounds like a standup dude. [FWIW Tracy is a San Joaquin ag town blown up into a supercommuter bedroom community for Bay Area wage slaves.]
TS (the original)
@rikyrah:
Reporters aren’t interested – white rural USA is their big concern.
Kent
I expect a whole lot fewer of those type voters this time around no matter who the nominee is.
debbie
@Mai naem mobile:
Thanks for the link. That was a good interview. He’s right about now like he was right about “It’s the economy, stupid.” Every candidate should find their focus instead of trying to please everyone with millions of ideas. I also agree with him about Applebaum’s tweet. It was unnecessary, and all it did was revive the image of the arugula-ed latte sipping elitist. I’m sure it played well on the coasts, but at what cost?
WaterGirl
@trollhattan: I can’t tell if you are being sarcastic or not. This sounds awful to me.
TS (the original)
@Elizabelle:
Vindictive piece of dirt.
Ruckus
@MisterForkbeard:
I just can not see a black, mass exodus to bernie.
What does he have for them to make that move? His stunning personality, his marching with MLK, his concept of who they are, what they need?
I don’t have that level of imagination. Desperation maybe, better than what we’ve got, sure, but the reality is the same as 2016.
Morzer
@?BillinGlendaleCA: It’s good to know that the revered elder statespersons will be able to pour gasoline on the troubled bonfire of Wilmer’s vanity.
Annie
Great. A former consultant for McKinsey elected to be mayor of a college town, which I assume skews more liberal than most of Indiana, which is a low bar to start with.
here are my starting points:
I will vote for the Democratic nominee whoever that is.
there are apparently some people who voted for Obama who later voted for Trump. I don’t get that but they seem to exist and we need some of them back. Notice I said “some” not all, because I understand we will not get all of them.
How does Buttigieg get those voters back?
also, I recall plenty of posters on this blog who were irate when Obama chose Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff because he was a technocrat. So now you want to nominate one? I don’t.
Be Bernie's Valentine
https://twitter.com/Plindsey2323/status/1225920031395065856
Ruckus
@Ella in New Mexico:
Yes it is. Fun to pontificate though.
And the candidates still running and hanging on for whatever reason is actually amazing. I got my CA mail in ballot Wednesday and the list amazed me with who hasn’t dropped out and if they get more than a couple thousand votes from across the country it would stun me.
LongHairedWeirdo
Time was, a Democrat might have thrown their hat into the ring *RIGHT NOW*. (Historically, I don’t know if such entrants ever win – but *starting the campaign* has happened at this point.)
One, count them, one, count them 2-3 times, just to be sure – yep, still one – state has voted.
I sure hope that no one is thinking we really have any idea what will happen next. Buttigieg could step on his cock at his next campaign event, and very few people who step on fowl have gone on to win the nomination. Biden could surge. Warren could get fair and reasonable coverage, Sanders could show some strong leadership qualities, etc..
That’s not to say I’m disrespecting, or disapproving of, “were I a gambling man” predictions. Still, let’s remember, there are a lot of votes to be cast, and a lot more news cycles, where Trump and the GOP’s criminality and incompetence can come into play.
Miss Bianca
@Roger Moore:
Yow. You ain’t never lied, and particularly not now.
Kent
Really? I don’t remember the Rahm controversy. I do remember being plenty pissed about Arne Duncan at Education and Tim Geigthner at Treasury. Which perhaps makes your point.
Peale
If the plan is to take back PA, WI, MI and Florida, I don’t see how that is going to happen without someone who can turn out African Americans. Like I know we need only a few hundred thousand switchers and sitters in those states. Most of those are going to come from that group. I know there is a sharp divide between younger and older voters. I don’t know how that plays out until primary votes are cast in a few of those states.
NotMax
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
As you asked, bluntly put I think you’re wildly overreacting and blowing things out of proportion.
WaterGirl
@Be Bernie’s Valentine: You do know that every comment of yours goes into moderation because you have an apostrophe in your nym?
Martin
@VFX Lurker: Yeah, I’m waiting as well. I’ve been doing vote by mail but dropping off at a voting center. Will likely do that again.
206inKY
@WaterGirl: Agree. I think Abrams is the most gifted politician of this generation and could lift pretty much any of the current field over the top as VP. She will be extremely formidable as a presidential candidate when she pulls the trigger on running.
Peale
@Kent: Rahm was one of the big heros at Kos and Salon after the blue wave of 2006. In 2009 I thought half the commentators at Salon we’re going to slit their wrists when he was appointed. By May 2009, I thought I was living in a different planet.
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Won’t help. All accounts is that it’s not transmitted by air – but by touch. Don’t touch your eyes without washing you hands first.
NotMax
@Martin
Or pick your nose.
;)
Marcopolo
@Peale: Wtf? Rewrite history much?
Howard Dean was the big hero at DKos in 2006. I was an active member of the site back then. No one liked Rahm. The general view was he was a centrist corporate shill. And we loathed him for it. And it was a red flag when Obama picked him as CoS.
Ella in New Mexico
@Ruckus:
I agree. Except for those who are the very lowest in the polls, I’d say the top 5-6 should just hang in there if they can for as long as they can because who’s down today may be up next week.
Marcopolo
@LongHairedWeirdo: Pretty sure that time was before the modern nominating process was instituted—so like prior to 1972-76. Maybe earlier. But that was because of the influence of party power brokers and their ability to swing backroom deals.
Emma from FL
@Marcopolo: And yet, in spite of dragging along that awful weight, Obama was an amazingly successful president. Surprise!
chopper
@Kent:
if sanders picked an ‘establishment’ dem for veep his stans would lose their shit. especially once they reminded themselves that bernie is an almost-80-year-old cardiac patient.
chopper
@WaterGirl:
he’s like cocaine? i mean, he is pretty white.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Wear a face mask if you have any symptoms, so, if you cough, nothing gets past the face mask.
More than a face mask (e.g., a gas mask?)? Useless. You’re 100x more likely to catch a virus by touching something, then rubbing your eye, scratching your nose, or putting a sandwich in your mouth, than by any vector were a gas mask is needed. (And if a gas mask is needed, I wouldn’t be surprised that it’s insufficient by itself.)
So, face mask if you cough/sneeze, and wash your hands a lot.
chopper
@zhena gogolia:
a-yup. also, he has the money to spend on downticket races. bloomie + dem senate sounds inviting to a lot of folks.
Jack Hughes
Mayor Pete is an impressive guy. He’d probably make a great president. But in a country that rejected one of the most qualified candidates in American history — a woman — for a vulgar, ignorant con-man, he’s just too risky, considering the stakes.
Republicans would love to run against him. They would just run wordless commercials of Mayor Pete embracing and kissing his husband with the words TRUMP 2020. Unfortunately, this is the political environment we inhabit.
Nominating him would be political suicide for the Democrats.
J R in WV
@trollhattan:
Well said. We’ve had trouble on our Supreme Court lately. Our judicial races are “non-partisan” but that doesn’t mean partisans can’t run in them, the problem is getting a grip on who is partisan about what.
I spent 3 days off and on searching donation records, news sites, etc. just to discover which lawyer was Republican and conservative, and which represented unions in court. Of course, none of that mattered in the end, all the winners were RWNJ federalist society monsters. But I still did the work.
Bill Arnold
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Wash your hands and keep them out of your mouth and eyes (and nose) and try to put distance between yourself and anyone sneezing. Get a flu shot even though it sucks this year.
Also track its spread at least in your physical area.
Beyond that, hope that the quarantines and other public health measures buy enough time to better model how the virus spreads (and how spread is slowed), to deploy massive numbers of test kits, to experimentally work out an effective antiviral treatment regime, and maybe to develop and produce a vaccine.
Be BernieAPOSTROPHEs Valentine
@WaterGirl:
Got it. Thanks!
Omnes Omnibus
@Kent: Again, anyone who talks about Wisconsin 2016 without mentioning voter suppression isn’t worth being taken seriously on the topic.
Sab
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): How is your grandmother? Wasn’t she widowed in the last few years?
VFX Lurker
That sounds like a good approach. I may drop my ballot off at a voting center on Sunday, March 1st.
Michael Cain
A fascinating set of comments, as always.
Bloomberg/Booker terrifies me. No Democrat from the NE urban corridor has won since Kennedy, and he needed LBJ to deliver critical Southern states. I believe there are important parts of the country where an all-NYC metro area ticket will not generate the necessary excitement.
Bernie’s urban/rural remark also scares me. More than 50% of Americans live in the suburbs. The suburbs were critical to the gains we made in 2018 and 2019. Is Bernie just going to ignore them? Granted, I’ve long been an advocate for the view that if you win the suburbs, you win the state.
sneezy
If Biden is the nominee I can see Harris accepting the VP slot especially if there is an (at least private) understanding that Biden is too old for more than one term. Sets her up for 2024. There is no way I see her agreeing to play second fiddle to Buttigieg.
I also think she is unlikely to accept an AG nomination unless she has given up on ever being president and I don’t think she has. That’s just not a likely path to the presidency.
sneezy
I guess I’ll add that if Buttigieg is the nominee (which I don’t expect but it’s still early) he’ll have a somewhat hard time finding a VP candidate and none of the candidates still in the race will accept an offer. Warren is too old to wait four or eight years for another shot at the presidency. Klobuchar isn’t too old but she strikes me as someone who actually likes getting stuff done and so will stay in the senate where she can do that. Bernie’s ego would obviously prevent him from accepting a VP slot with someone literally less than half his age and he just as obviously wouldn’t be asked anyway.
Of those who were in the race but aren’t anymore, maybe Castro, maybe Booker but I doubt either will be asked. I think he might have a hard time finding someone to actually accept the offer.
opiejeanne
@Elizabelle: It’s under $3 million in that neighborhood? It’s gorgeous and I know this will stun some people, but that price makes it a steal.
opiejeanne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think you’ve lost your mind. It primarily kills middle-aged and old men. You’re a young person.
Wash your hands, a lot. Cover your mouth when you sneeze or cough and wash your hands again. If you feel yourself getting sick, stay home from work/school and go to a doctor if it’s not something minor.
And if you feel like you have a cold coming on, for heaven’s sake, stay away from your grandmother.
I hope you got your flu shot. If not, go get one NOW.
cokane
Just as people here poorly predicted that the black vote would gravitate towards Biden, so too are they undestimating how it’s going to gravitate to Sanders if Biden’s support collapses. Sanders has the name recognition. Most people don’t follow the news all the time, and see Sanders as nothing more than a safe, if perhaps somewhat lefty, Democrat. The microscopic analysis of race v class prioritizing that people get so up in arms about here is not something most voters care that much about.