Were I a gambling man, and I am not, but were I am gambling man, I would, RIGHT NOW, put my money on Buttigieg/(Harris/Castro/Booker) as the nominees.
I know Biden thinks South Carolina is going to save him, but I think Buttigieg is going to pick up a lot of votes. People I know who are not interested in politics usually keep asking me what I think about him. I really think a lot of people who would have gone for Klobuchar, Biden, Delaney, Moulton, the entire lump of centrist blah democrats, are going to go to Buttigieg. I know I am in a rare bubble of lefties, but outside of that bubble, there are a lot of people who think that the son of teachers who went to a good school and served in the military and seems polite and well-mannered and who worked for a fancy consulting firm is a pretty a-ok thing for their kid to aspire to and not bad qualities to have in a President.
I still don’t think Bernie is going to win, because while his support is deep, it is narrow. Yes, a lot of people will vote for him, but I fail to see how he expands his base beyond what it is already. He’s just not the kind of candidate where people who were pro-Harris or pro-Castro are going to say “OK, they are out- guess I will go with Bernie.” In fact, if anything, I see Bernie losing more votes to Warren as the race goes on, but neither of them overtaking the moderate wing.
Who knows, I may be wrong. As has been stated repeatedly to the point of almost parody, I am going to vote for any of them over Trump, and I am personally biased towards Warren. But that is what I am feeling today. And as you all know, that may change next week.
*** Update ***
I have been reliably informed that I completely overlooked the fact that Buttigieg polls HORRIBLY with minorities. Which he does. That’s why I mentioned Biden and South Carolina, where the actually Democratic base lives. But a lot can change between now and then. Which is why this was not an endorsement of the aforementioned ticket, but a bet. I believe I also noted that I am not a gambling man, so I’m not even putting money on it.