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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Election Year Open Thread: New Hampshire’s Ceremonial Running of the Journos

Election Year Open Thread: New Hampshire’s Ceremonial Running of the Journos

by Anne Laurie|  February 8, 20206:11 pm| 110 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

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One of my treasured #fitn memories is John Kasich getting fake-annoyed then real-annoyed by every single voter at one town hall being from Maryland. https://t.co/WPC4sYvFiC

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 8, 2020

New Hampshire’s biggest industry — no lie — is tourism. And one of the state’s biggest earned-media tourism advertisements is its #FITN – FIRST IN THE NATION sinecure. It’s as rigidly choreographed as a Regency country dance, with every party well-versed in the steps: The natives pretend they’re flattered by the attention, and the journalists pretend they’re not desperate to finish the charade and move on to somewhere more entertaining…

I start every voter interview by asking "are you a New Hampshire voter" and sometimes have to go through 3-4 people before I find one. https://t.co/nKz40cqx4D

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) February 8, 2020

The last weekend before the New Hampshire primary: When candidates dig deep and passionately make their closing argument to rooms full of Massachusetts voters

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) February 8, 2020

It’s primary time. Walking a block on Elm Street in Manchester from my parked car to lunch I was stopped by two reporters who wanted to interview me as a typical voter.

— Walter Shapiro (@MrWalterShapiro) February 8, 2020

New Hampshire, a state whose motto is “Live Free Or Die,” has last call at 1 a.m.

And they call themselves libertarians.

— Kevin Robillard (@Robillard) February 8, 2020

One blessing, this year, is that at least a couple of the no-hoper candidates are expected to drop out after they fail to break single digit (as in, 1%) in Tuesday’s beauty contest. This dude, for instance…

Most of the crowd has left before Deval Patrick started speaking. He got kind of screwed after Sanders belatedly agreed to come and took his prime spot pic.twitter.com/6RWemRjgQw

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 8, 2020



Nothing personal against Deval — he was a perfectly cromulent governor, even if I always have trouble remembering who the guy in the corner office between Romney and Baker actually was — but he’s never gonna be president, and in his heart he knows it. He’s a self-made millionaire, but nowhere near Steyer levels of wealth or vanity; a bunch of his fellow finance buddies persuaded him jump into the race at the height of the Wall Street ‘OMG Liz Warren might actually win this thing’ boomlet. (So, yeah: some personal animus on my part, too.) Warren may still win the nomination, despite the media’s best efforts on the part of their paymasters, but Deval Patrick’s only purpose was to leach potential Warren votes in New Hampshire; I very much doubt voters in Nevada or South Carolina could pick him out of a lineup.

Speaking of nice, sorta-qualified guys very few voters could identify…

Someone put this on my car while parked outside of a Biden event. I thought for sure that it would fly off while I was driving on the highway, but somehow it clung on. It’s like a metaphor for the Bennet campaign!

But I also missed the event. pic.twitter.com/aPCtiA42yn

— Ben Terris (@bterris) February 8, 2020

James Carville stumping for Michael Bennet as a candidate who would help downticket, as opposed to Sanders: “They’ll run away from Bernie Sanders like the devil running away from holy water.” pic.twitter.com/odSGPea5gi

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 8, 2020

Bennet onstage now: "We're going to surprise a lot of people, and it won't take much to surprise them."

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 8, 2020


I’m surprised already, to be honest. I’d completely forgotten Bennet was still a candidate!

There are currently more people at an event for @MichaelBennet in Manchester than there were for @JoeBiden a few hours ago, 1 block away. And Bennet’s wife and @JamesCarville are currently throwing Mardi Gras beads to the crowd to finish off pic.twitter.com/74uIQ0GNuk

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) February 8, 2020

Well, I guess Carville wanted one more chance to feel politically relevant during a presidential campaign. If Bennet can afford to pay him, why not work the last feasible spotlight?

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Reader Interactions

110Comments

  1. 1.

    trollhattan

    February 8, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    [Checks CA ballot for Bennet] huh, he’s on it. I thought it was a typo,

  2. 2.

    WaterGirl

    February 8, 2020 at 6:28 pm

    @trollhattan: I’m sure they have to print the ballots way ahead of time, but couldn’t they mail out a list that shows the people who have already dropped out?

  3. 3.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 8, 2020 at 6:28 pm

    Well, it’s the only way we Massholes can have any real influence at all…

  4. 4.

    NotMax

    February 8, 2020 at 6:28 pm

    One thing about Bennet – he is incredibly intelligent.

    schrodingers_cat might find it of passing interest that he was born in New Delhi, while his family lived there when his father served as an underling to U.S. ambassador to India Chester Bowles.

  5. 5.

    smintheus

    February 8, 2020 at 6:29 pm

    I saw Bennet on TV during the impeachment coverage. He was very good, made important points and did so forcefully. I’d be happy if he were the nominee (more than if Sanders of Buttigieg are).

  6. 6.

    mad citizen

    February 8, 2020 at 6:29 pm

    Shouldn’t Carville be back in his hole with all the other groundhogs?

     

    Bennet gave a great all-time speech/rant that one time in the Senate.  Leave on that high note, dude, as Seinfeld would advise.

  7. 7.

    Baud

    February 8, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    Bennet is an ok dude.

  8. 8.

    NotMax

    February 8, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    @Baud

    Whereas Warren is an OK dudette.

    :)

  9. 9.

    ThresherK

    February 8, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    How many bumperstickers for Bennet say nothing except:

    Bennet (NOT BILL BENNETT) 2020

  10. 10.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    February 8, 2020 at 6:38 pm

    OT: Against my better judgement, due to the possibility of rain, I’m going to a shoot along the Salton Sea tomorrow.

  11. 11.

    Suzanne

    February 8, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    “Mitch McConnell’s gonna look like he crapped a pineapple.”

    Say what you will about Carville, but this made me smile, for real. What a fabulous image.

    You know what, I don’t care. Any of them are fine. Even Bernie. I’m saving my fire for Agent Orange.

  12. 12.

    Jeffro

    February 8, 2020 at 6:46 pm

    I cannot imagine being Deval Patrick, looking around, and thinking “this was a good decision, all right!”

  13. 13.

    Cameron

    February 8, 2020 at 6:48 pm

    BACK AGAIN!  MICHAEL BENNET AND JAMES CARVILLE IN CONCERT!  Together again, for the first time in YEARS, reprising the greatest hits of the 90’s!  You’ll hear such classics as….oh, to hell with it.  I can’t even make fun of this shit.  When the primary rolls around on St. Paddy’s Day here in Florida, there will still be 10-15-infinity candidates on the ballot.

  14. 14.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 6:50 pm

    What fun it will be if the tribune of the masses, the leap year Democrat and Larry David double loses tomorrow. Keeping my paws crossed.

    Teacher’s pet win this one!

  15. 15.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 6:51 pm

    @NotMax: Yes I did read that when he was in one of the debates and I looked up his wikipedia page. Fun fact, I have never been to Delhi.

  16. 16.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 6:53 pm

    @Baud: He spoke eloquently about the children in cages at the border and won me over. Too bad he didn’t get any traction. Who is funding Yang? He is such a caricature of a techie.

  17. 17.

    Baud

    February 8, 2020 at 6:55 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Other young tech guys, I think.

  18. 18.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 6:56 pm

    I suspect this could have been predicted: Buttigieg will be on all of the Sunday morning “news” shows. Not particularly a Sanders fan but the data (even with its fuckupedness) strongly implies he’s the guy who won IA but he ain’t getting any credit for it.

    And don’t get me started about the ghosting of Warren & Klobuchar.

    This is one of the reasons we can’t have nice elections.

  19. 19.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    @Marcopolo: Pete B won the metric that matters, delegates. Last I saw he had one more delegate than the St of Vt.

  20. 20.

    Baud

    February 8, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    @Marcopolo: The traditional measure is most delegates and that’s what Buttigieg won. Everyone agrees Sanders got the most votes.  The only reason we know that, however, is that this is the first year they disclosed that number.

  21. 21.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 8, 2020 at 7:01 pm

    I start every voter interview by asking “are you a New Hampshire voter” and sometimes have to go through 3-4 people before I find one.

    but inevitably when I ask, “Do you care?” 3 out of 4 say “No.”

  22. 22.

    ThresherK

    February 8, 2020 at 7:06 pm

    Speaking of “oh, that guy exists and ran for President too!”, I was reading about the Catskills, and came across George Pataki’s name.

  23. 23.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    February 8, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    Bloomberg sent me a big color mailer against assault rifles today.   I’d like to see him run some attack ads on Wilmer’s ties to the NRA.

  24. 24.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 7:11 pm

    @Jeffro: I cannot imagine being Deval Patrick, looking around, and thinking “this was a good decision, all right!”

    I know that he has often put off or not run for office so as mot to put stress on his wife. I haven’t seen an ad, heard of any campaign event, or anything of that nature.

    I can just imagine him at home saying “don’t worry this isn’t for real.” I wonder if he’s being paid for this.

  25. 25.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 7:14 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Be prepared after 8 years of a Bloomberg administration for little progress on weapon safety, but a nationwide backslide criminal justice reform, and no more sodas larger than a cup measure.

  26. 26.

    zhena gogolia

    February 8, 2020 at 7:15 pm

    I just got a fundraising e-mail from Michael Bennet!

  27. 27.

    Eric U.

    February 8, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    I feel like they could have the first primaries somewhere nicer so the political tourists enjoy the trip more.  Or Pennsylvania, which is my current best idea of where the first primary should be held

  28. 28.

    zhena gogolia

    February 8, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    @NotMax:

    He’s a good man.

  29. 29.

    JMG

    February 8, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    Full disclosure: My son, currently employed on digital communications for the NYC subway (he helped develop the app that informs commuters’ phones “due to the unfortunate escape of King Kong, 7 trains to Queens could be delayed for some time.”). He worked on both Patrick campaigns. Patrick is an excellent person and was a pretty good Governor. He’s personally close to Obama. Some idiot told Patrick Obama would get behind him, which of course he never would. Hence this catastrophe.

    Saw not one but two Gabbard ads tonight. Gosh I hate living near the New Hampshire primary.

  30. 30.

    zhena gogolia

    February 8, 2020 at 7:28 pm

    Seriously, why isn't this Real Time ad a real political spot? There's not a lie in it, it's not cruel, and the message is right: There's something medically wrong with Trump. https://t.co/aKJJEAdfdl— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 8, 2020

  31. 31.

    Dan B

    February 8, 2020 at 7:31 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:  Wow, no Delhi on your bucket list?  I liked Mumbai / Bombay more than flat as a pancake Delhi although the historic sites are amazing: Lohdi Gardens, Humayan’s Tomb, Red Fort, Parliament, and the Chandni Chowk market.  The Arabian Sea makes crazy dense Mumbai seem less claustrophobic.

  32. 32.

    PsiFighter37

    February 8, 2020 at 7:36 pm

    No idea why Bennet is still in the race. That said, he has turned out better than I thought he would when Obama poached Ken Salazar to be in his cabinet. I know we hate taking senators, but given CO’s status, I feel like he could be a decent SecEd (since that is what he did in Denver before becoming a senator). YMMV. Overall, I do feel like he’s a solid guy, even if he sounds like Mr. Mackie from South Park.

  33. 33.

    PsiFighter37

    February 8, 2020 at 7:37 pm

    @Dan B: I think I will have a hard time convincing my wife to ever go to India – the horrible stories about the gang rapes that happened there a few years back very negatively colored her view of the country.

  34. 34.

    NotMax

    February 8, 2020 at 7:37 pm

    @BillinGlendaleCA

    Double dog dare ya to say “Salton Sea shoot” ten times fast.

    ;)

  35. 35.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    February 8, 2020 at 7:38 pm

    @Kraux Pas: I don’t care who wins.  Anybody but Wilmer.

    I usually turn in my absentee ballot early, but since I’m not married to any candidate, this time I’ll wait until the last day to gauge who’s in best position to prevent Wilmer from losing 49 states.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    February 8, 2020 at 7:40 pm

    @Kraux Pas:

    Repost – Detroit News (from 2014):

    Washington – — Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg donated $3 million to Gov. Rick Snyder’s re-election campaign — the most he contributed to any candidate as part of a $40 million effort.

    The billionaire majority owner of the media conglomerate Bloomberg LP, backed five Republican winners including Snyder, though many Democrats he backed lost. Bloomberg also backed U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, who won his race for U.S. Senate.

    Bloomberg told Politico Snyder is “an extremely competent guy who took on the unions to get Detroit and Michigan going in the right direction. And he was re-elected despite being attacked by the unions.”

    Snyder signed “Right to Work” legislation in December 2012 following an unsuccessful bid by unions to enshrine collective bargaining rights in the state constitution. Unions also worked aggressively to try to defeat Snyder in his re-election bid.

    Last month, Bloomberg’s Independence USA political action committee launched a major TV ad buy worth at least $2.3 million on behalf of Snyder. A male narrator in Independence USA’s ad declared Michigan is “coming back” and that Snyder is “the governor who put partisanship aside, made the hard decisions and delivered results.

    […]

    Public sector unions would be decimated under Bloomberg, if he got his way.

    Snyder was in charge when Flint’s water was poisoned to save a few bucks.

    Bloomberg is not our friend. Fancy ads don’t change that.

    Grrr…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    Dan B

    February 8, 2020 at 7:40 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:  A gay political blog posted a video of a line to see Pete speak in NH.  Looked like thousands – 7 or 8 blocks long outside the venue.  Shows the draw of celebrity.  I want him to beat Wilmer and then be in second or less in the upcoming states with Liz in front, or Amy ( Don’t care for her voice but it’s just my nitpick.  She knows where the bodies are buried. )

    Pete’s given hope to a lot of LGBTQ folks so his purpose is served.  He also seems to show that a lot of people want someone calm and unflappable.  I want that to rub iff on other candidates.  Some of them can balance unflappable with emotional clarity or wisdom.

  38. 38.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 7:41 pm

    @Dan B: I would like to go. But usually visits are taken up visiting family and friends who are in and around Mumbai for the most part.

  39. 39.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    February 8, 2020 at 7:48 pm

    VoteVets is running health care issue ads for Cal Cunningham during the Duke-Carolina game tonight.

    “One third of North Carolinians have pre-existing conditions and would lose their insurance is the ACA is repealed.”

  40. 40.

    WaterGirl

    February 8, 2020 at 7:54 pm

    @Another Scott:

    Bloomberg is not our friend. Fancy ads don’t change that.

    Someone please put that on a freakin’ billboard.

  41. 41.

    Nelle

    February 8, 2020 at 7:54 pm

    @JMG:I commiserate on the ads.  Here in Iowa, we’ve gone back to hearing about medicine and side effects after the onslaught of political ads.

    My husband is a Warren delegate to the next level (not sure if that is county or state).  He was talking to someone from a small town and it turns out that delegates in Iowa are weighted to rural areas.  So our precinct had 259 people show up and got 9 delegates.  His friend had 60 people show up and had many more delegates – he doesn’t remember the exact number but he was startled that they had so many more in total delegates while having such a smaller number.  I’m getting a dim sense of how someone would get more delegates and still have fewer total votes.  That guy’s precinct is Wyoming and we’re nearer to California.   If he can find out, I’ll come back and put the number here.

  42. 42.

    Cheryl Rofer

    February 8, 2020 at 8:05 pm

    The Biden campaign dropping a nuclear bomb on Mayor Pete today.

    This is the most brutal ad I've seen in a long time.??
    pic.twitter.com/aQpb2P6LH7

    — Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) February 8, 2020

  43. 43.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 8:05 pm

    @WaterGirl: Someone please put that on a freakin’ billboard.

    Can we start like an act blue or something to put blog-approved messages on billboards?

  44. 44.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 8:07 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    @Baud: Essentially Sanders & Buttigieg are tied for delegates out of Iowa.  There are 2,107 State Delegate Equivalents (which translate into 41 delegates to the convention) up for grabs in the caucus.  Currently, and there is a recanvass happening now, Buttigieg has 26.2% and Sanders has 26.1%, a difference of 1.5 SDEs out of that 2,107.  They will each get exactly the same number of delegates to the convention (first line in block quote is a link to the reporting):

    With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Buttigieg still leads Sanders by 1.5 state delegate equivalents. However, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez has called for a recanvass of the results, which appear to have misallocated some delegates. And the Associated Press has announced it will not declare a winner for the foreseeable future, so it could be awhile before we have a final verdict on who won Iowa.

    Not a Sanders supporter but he won first voters in the door by 4%, won realigned voters by 2% and SDEs are all but tied.  Not sure how anyone calls Buttigieg the clear winner out of IA.

  45. 45.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 8:15 pm

    @Marcopolo: So another thing I wonder about these caucuses, do participants have any way of ensuring that the people recording their preferences aredoing so accurately?

  46. 46.

    Baud

    February 8, 2020 at 8:16 pm

    @Marcopolo:

    Last I heard, Pete had one more national delegate. If that’s been updated so that they get the same, then so be it.

  47. 47.

    The Dangerman

    February 8, 2020 at 8:17 pm

    “If Michael Bennet’s the nominee, Mitch McConnell’s gonna look like he crapped a pineapple.”

    So, no change then?

    If/when the investigations start, can we place Mitch’s wife near the head of the line? No, she doesn’t jump over the Trump Children…

  48. 48.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 8:17 pm

    @Marcopolo: Pete B won 13 delegates and BS won 12 delegates

    13  > 12.

    Hence Pete B is the winner.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/us/politics/who-won-iowa-caucuses.html

  49. 49.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: That was a legitimately good ad, true story. Though Biden should be careful abput bringijg out 26+ year-old votes and saying what you’ve done matters. He’s done a lot in that time that doesn’t look so stellar.

  50. 50.

    West of the Rockies

    February 8, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Ka-BOOM!!!

  51. 51.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 8:22 pm

    @Marcopolo: Not a Sanders supporter but he won first voters in the door by 4%, won realigned voters by 2% and SDEs are all but tied.  Not sure how anyone calls Buttigieg the clear winner out of IA.

    Well, Mayor Pete beat Sanders by eleventy points on the expectations game. That’s a thing, tight?

  52. 52.

    Ken

    February 8, 2020 at 8:22 pm

    @Marcopolo: There are 2,107 State Delegate Equivalents (which translate into 41 delegates to the convention)

    Good lord, and I used to think that converting from BTUs to TWh was complicated.

    he won first voters in the door by 4%, won realigned voters by 2% and SDEs are all but tied.

    Someone refresh my memory.  Was there any reason for Iowa to change their reporting system and add two extra measures?  To let multiple candidates claim victory, maybe? It seems to have made the whole process less decisive, which adds to the impression that Iowa isn’t all that important.

  53. 53.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 8:23 pm

    Did BS go to Vietnam? Or did he dodge the draft? He is the right age isn’t he?

    ETA: Snopes says he was too old for the draft.

  54. 54.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 8:24 pm

    @Ken: BTU = British Thermal Units what is TWH?

  55. 55.

    The Dangerman

    February 8, 2020 at 8:24 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    This is the most brutal ad I’ve seen in a long time.

    Ouch.

  56. 56.

    Baud

    February 8, 2020 at 8:25 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: I wish I could vote for Joe Biden’s ads in the primary.

  57. 57.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 8:26 pm

    @Baud: He was not particularly effective yesterday. He was trying to talk too fast and that doesn’t work for him.

  58. 58.

    debbie

    February 8, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I await the ad where Biden and Bloomberg duke it out over who Obama liked better.

  59. 59.

    JWR

    February 8, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    Just now, another Bernie! ad. In SoCal.

  60. 60.

    Ken

    February 8, 2020 at 8:29 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: Terawatt-hours.  I was gathering some statistics for a presentation on world energy use, and at times it seemed that no two countries reported it in the same way.

  61. 61.

    debbie

    February 8, 2020 at 8:31 pm

    My U.S. Rep, Joyce Beatty, is being challenged for the first time since she was elected in 2013 by an AOC wannabe. One of her minions knocked on my door this afternoon. I took her literature and refrained from yelling at her. Beatty’s been a great rep and is well-liked by her constituents. Why don’t these Wilmerites challenge Blue Dogs instead of cannibalizing good Dems?

  62. 62.

    Dan B

    February 8, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    @PsiFighter37:  The scariest thing in India is the traffic.  Drivers are a must.

    If your wife read the stories about crime in the USA and the name Sweden was switched for USA she’d probably probably sell any scandinavian furniture, or anything Ikea.  But perception is tough to overcome.  The worst experience I had was a matronly woman kicking me in the ankles because I was put in front of her in line for an Air India flight.  I’d upgraded to Business Class and the attendants had missed boarding me first.  I turned to loudly inform her I would report her to security if she did it again.  We were in security screening #1, of three.

  63. 63.

    Nelle

    February 8, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    @Kraux Pas: We had preference cards.  On one side, we wrote first preference and signed them.  If the candidate we chose was viable, we were done.  If our first choice wasn’t viable, we flipped the preference card oveand wrote our second choice and signed it.

    Those cards were turned in.  I don’t know for sure, but I’m wondering if part of the accounting problem is getting totals to match up when people left without a second choice, when their first choice wasn’t viable as at least half of the Bernie people at my precinct walked out when Bernie wasn’t viable.  Then total votes don’t match the total attendees.

  64. 64.

    Another Scott

    February 8, 2020 at 8:38 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Politics ain’t beanbag.

    ex-Mayor Pete should have realized that people aren’t going to roll over and just let him take the prize.  He’s going to have to fight for it, if he really wants it.

    Will he?  Can he?  I guess we’ll find out.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  65. 65.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 8:40 pm

    @Nelle: Wow, I thought I understood how delegates were determined for the primaries but whoa, nelly, was I wrong.  Here is the wiki link for nationwide delegate allocation which will make your head spin.

    Anyways, it is more complicated than this, but basically the DNC (committee)  looks at the # of D votes for president over the past 3 elections, then looks at how many D votes there were in each state for those 3 election, then figures out what each state’s proportion of the vote was and that is the proportion of 3,939 delegates they are allocated (except it isn’t since there is secret sauce shit added in but it is close enough for us to talk about it).

    Iowa is allocated 41 delegates in 2020.  The IA D party looks at the prior IA D presidential vote by congressional district (there are 4) and by a process which I assume is similar to the national one determines how many State Equivalent Delegates (there are 2,107 total) are to be awarded in each CD.  Within each CD the vote is then looked at on the precinct level (each caucus represents a precinct) & SDE delegates are then doled out to precincts based on each precincts proportion of the prior D presidential vote.  This year for the first time, there were several satellite caucuses (in rural areas) which were designed to make it easier for folks to get to a caucus & to try to engage smaller subgroups (like latino meat industry workers).  Since there was no historical data for these satellite caucuses the SDEs awarded through them were negotiated separately–this was mostly done by the Sanders campaign which won these satellite caucuses handily & over which the Buttigieg campaign has lodged some protests.

    If you are still with me and keeping all that in mind, since each caucus/precinct is allocated a set number of SDEs based on voting in the general presidential election (which is high turnout) in areas where caucus participation is more difficult (like rural areas due to distances) the number of SDEs per caucus participant will be higher which might explain what you are talking about.  As an example, a larger percentage of the folks who vote in November will show up for a caucus in Des Moines (which is urban/suburban and everyone lives close by) than in a rural area so the rural caucus goers vote has more weight.  Apparently, this is a feature of the caucuses that the Buttigieg campaign took advantage of (and I’m pretty sure Obama did as well in 2008).

    Hope that kind of explains it, though, as I mentioned at the start all these party people do strange secret sauce shit with their delegate calculations & I do even pretend to understand that stuff.

  66. 66.

    Princess

    February 8, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    At the university near me, when they did a mock Dem Iowa caucus a few weeks ago, in first was Bernie, second was Warren, and in third place, the only other vialble candidate was…Bennet. So don’t sleep on Bennetmentum. You heard it here first. And last, no doubt.

  67. 67.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    @debbie: They want to take over the D party, they are following the Tea party handbook.

  68. 68.

    Ken

    February 8, 2020 at 8:44 pm

    @zhena gogolia: There’s something medically wrong with Trump.

    “And then, a miracle happened!”  – Antonio Salieri, Amadeus.

  69. 69.

    Kai-two

    February 8, 2020 at 8:47 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:

    Sanders has moved on gun control – now his views match up fairly closely with the electorate and he’s not as hysterical as others.

    I think his current NRA rating is D or D-.

  70. 70.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 8:48 pm

    @Nelle: Those cards were turned in.  I don’t know for sure, but I’m wondering if part of the accounting problem is getting totals to match up when people left without a second choice

    I heard part of the problem was that they had more second choices than first choices.

  71. 71.

    Dan B

    February 8, 2020 at 8:48 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:  Capische!  My friends have friends and family in Delhi and Mumbai.  They had to make it a point that they wanted to show me India in order to have time to be tourists themselves.  It was wonderful to stay with their friends and relatives instead of simply being a rootless tourist.  The culture of family is very different than the average American waspy family.

  72. 72.

    Kai-two

    February 8, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Excellent ad.

    McKinsey is almost as vile as facebook and I hope this douchecanoe gets chewed up and spit out.

  73. 73.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 8:53 pm

    @Ken: For the sake of transparency.  Honestly.  And that transparency has shown how hard it is for a huge number of volunteers to carry off a complicated event with complicated rules (there is a pretty credible argument to make that with 1600 caucuses that not every caucus was run by the same rules).  And then get that data reported back in an accurate & timely fashion.

    On the one hand, everything is out in the open so the argument that “things were rigged” is harder to make.  On the other hand, the whole process is messy as hell, at points looks a little jerry-rigged, and that would seem to make people less trusting of the results as a whole.

  74. 74.

    Kay

    February 8, 2020 at 8:53 pm

    @Nelle:

    I think the Iowa process appears more complicated because they are combining two delegate processes- the state delegates and the delegates to the national convention.

    Other states split those up, so there is what Ohio calls a “pre caucus” in January where the delegates themselves are selected and then the primary in March, where the delegates are allocated.

    I think your “state delegate equivalents” = our “state delegates”- Iowa’s caucus is the equivalent of two delegate caucuses (January) and one primary election (March), in Ohio. No wonder it’s hard.

  75. 75.

    Cacti

    February 8, 2020 at 8:54 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:  That’s right.  Old-ass Bernie Sanders was too old for the Vietnam draft.

  76. 76.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 8:56 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: There were 41 available delegates to be awarded.  The NYT figures add up to 40 (13+12+8+6+1).  I’ll go out on a limb and say Sanders will get getting that last one.

    If he doesn’t, it’s not like I’ve never been wrong before.

  77. 77.

    Jeffro

    February 8, 2020 at 8:57 pm

    @Eric U.: PA is Twitter Dick Nixon’s first choice for first-in-the-nation primary status.  It’s a pretty good call.

  78. 78.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 8, 2020 at 8:58 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: You know what, Vietnam was a complicated thing for people of draft age.  You and I are both too young to have a been a part of it, so perhaps we can leave it be.  I will say that on my part the only choice that people made at that time that I will look back and condemn is one where someone avoided the draft by fair means and foul and then later chose to put other peoples’ children in harms way for fun and profit.

  79. 79.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 8:58 pm

    @Nelle: Yes, that is one reason why the numbers aren’t all nice & neat through all the stages.

  80. 80.

    WaterGirl

    February 8, 2020 at 9:01 pm

    @Kraux Pas: DougJ is king of Balloon Juice Act Blue.  He would be the one to know.  But I think Act Blue requires a candidate.

  81. 81.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 9:02 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: I am not condemning him. I was just wondering because I remember it being a big issue for Bill Clinton. Al Gore, Kerry and even W talked about what they did during the Vietnam era but I hadn’t heard anything about BS and Vietnam, hence the question.

  82. 82.

    Jeffro

    February 8, 2020 at 9:02 pm

    @zhena gogolia: Here’s hoping that the various Dem campaigns are realizing it’s ok to Go. There. when it comes to talking about trumpov’s various medical/mental issues.

    For pete’s sake, it was major news when Hillz had pneumonia and tried to power through.  Or coughed.

    We still don’t know what happened that sent trumpov rushing to Walter Reed a month ago.  Panic attack?  OD on crushed Adderall?  Stroke-like symptoms?  INQUIRING MINDS WANNA KNOW!  (And frankly, inquiring Dem candidates ought to be pouncing at every speech-seizure, foot-dragging incident, and any other opportunity that presents itself)

    A grateful nation will eventually be grateful!

  83. 83.

    Marcopolo

    February 8, 2020 at 9:03 pm

    @Kay: Yes, it is a three stage process in IA.  The SDEs that are awarded at the precinct caucus level first go to a county caucus which winnows the numbers down, then those delegates go to the state level caucus where the final 41 delegates to the convention are selected.

    Fun fact, in 2012 on the R side Romney was declared the initial winner.  Two weeks later the IA R party said oops our bad, Santorum actually won.  Then at the state party caucus the Ron Paul folks pulled a fast one and won him the most delegates to the convention.  Gotta love caucuses.

    Y’all have a good night folks.

  84. 84.

    Inspectrix

    February 8, 2020 at 9:04 pm

    Masshole here. I don’t see the problem with political tourism. Those are voters from other states who may be highly engaged. NH provides New England with its only chance at interacting with the candidates.

    Here in a Super Tuesday blue state, we can’t do much in-state at the moment, but we can in NH. My sweetie regularly drives up to NH to knock on doors for Warren.

  85. 85.

    Kraux Pas

    February 8, 2020 at 9:05 pm

    @WaterGirl: But I think Act Blue requires a candidate.

    Makes sense. That is why I included the “or something.” It wasnt that I was being sloppy with language. Lazy, yes, bit not sloppy. 

  86. 86.

    Another Scott

    February 8, 2020 at 9:09 pm

    Pelosi has an OpEd in the WaPo.

    In declaring their loyalty to the president over our Constitution, Leader McConnell & Senate Republicans have made a farce of the old boast that the U.S. Senate is the greatest deliberative body in the world. #DefendOurDemocracy https://t.co/AA7Fw72PeO— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) February 8, 2020

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/nancy-pelosi-mcconnell-and-the-gop-senate-are-accomplices-to-trumps-wrongdoing/2020/02/07/d06582be-49e4-11ea-9164-d3154ad8a5cd_story.html

    […]

    The People’s House will continue to defend democracy for the American people. We will uphold and protect the checks and balances enshrined in the Constitution, both in the courts of law and in the court of public opinion to preserve our republic “if we can keep it,” to quote Benjamin Franklin.

    And we will always insist on this truth: that, in America, no one is above the law.

    She’s not letting this go. Good, good.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  87. 87.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 9:09 pm

    @Marcopolo: Fair enough.

  88. 88.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 8, 2020 at 9:11 pm

    @debbie: Shit, no one going to take down a Beatty.  Joyce and Otto are and were good at what they do and Otto knows were all the bodies are buried in C-bus politics.

  89. 89.

    Jeffro

    February 8, 2020 at 9:11 pm

    @Another Scott: Damn straight.  Dig in and send another couple of Articles, just based on the firings of Vindman and Sondland.

    Then send another couple based on looting the treasury w/ the Secret Service’s stays at Mar-a-Lago.

    And a couple more based on flippin’ Ivanka and Jared’s profiteering. $82M (minimum) last year?  Hunter Biden, you done sold yourself short, my friend!

  90. 90.

    moonbat

    February 8, 2020 at 9:14 pm

    @Another Scott: Tell it and tell it again. We’d be rid of freakin’ Pat Toomey as PA Senator if it wasn’t for his millions.

  91. 91.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 8, 2020 at 9:14 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Vietnam was a complicated thing for people of draft age

    Yes, it was.

  92. 92.

    moonbat

    February 8, 2020 at 9:22 pm

    @Kai-two: If Hillary and Warren have to pay from now to the end of time for at one time being registered Republicans then Bernie doesn’t get a pass for lately changing his position on gun control.

  93. 93.

    Another Scott

    February 8, 2020 at 9:22 pm

    The old platitudes of Washington have failed, tearing us apart. That’s why I’m building this campaign in the heartland to launch the new middle class platitudes we need to come together and be Americans again. https://t.co/aa097bhNCg— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) February 8, 2020

    Heh.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  94. 94.

    phdesmond

    February 8, 2020 at 9:23 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: wow.  gloves off, brass knuckles on.

  95. 95.

    debbie

    February 8, 2020 at 9:24 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Hope not. I follow her on FB and there are all kinds of trolls showing up and berating her.

    This candidate isn’t bad; her only work experience seems to be at the CFPB, which is a bonus in my book. But she ought to take on a Republican; god knows there are enough of them around here.

  96. 96.

    zhena gogolia

    February 8, 2020 at 9:27 pm

    @Jeffro:

    I know Bill Maher has his ups and downs, but that segment is well worth watching. He does a great bit about Hillary.

  97. 97.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 8, 2020 at 9:28 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: “Dodging the draft” is loaded language.

  98. 98.

    zhena gogolia

    February 8, 2020 at 9:29 pm

    @Jeffro:

    The talking point I see among MAGAts on twitter is “double jeopardy!” As if double jeopardy keeps you from being tried for new crimes.

  99. 99.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 9:30 pm

    @moonbat: And immigration. He has voted with Sessions and Grasseley on immigration than with the Ds in his senate career and now we are supposed to take it on faith that he has had a change of heart.

  100. 100.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 8, 2020 at 9:31 pm

    @debbie: What’s the candidates name?  Did she come out of Cordray’s orbit?

  101. 101.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 8, 2020 at 9:31 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Point taken, will avoid next time. Thanks.

  102. 102.

    phdesmond

    February 8, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: “avoiding” the draft is pretty neutral.  especially in the distinction between avoiding and evading taxes.

  103. 103.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 8, 2020 at 9:53 pm

    @phdesmond: Yes, and?

  104. 104.

    phdesmond

    February 8, 2020 at 9:55 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: well, if one is trying not to unnecessarily hurt strangers’ feelings, “avoid” rather than “dodge” seems less judgmental.

  105. 105.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 8, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    @phdesmond: I’m sorry.  Did you read the exchange between s_c and me?

  106. 106.

    phdesmond

    February 8, 2020 at 10:14 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: yes, i did.  perhaps i should have replied to both of you.

  107. 107.

    frosty

    February 8, 2020 at 11:32 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Dead thread, but oh well. There was a good book on the draft-age generation that was written in the 70s: Chance and Circumstance. The authors agree with you: everybody had their own choices to make. I had a student deferment: last class to go in with a 2S and first to come out after the draft was ended.  I agree with you that the chickenhawks like Cheney are the most vile.

    And to be clear, GW Bush dodged it as well. It was impossible to get into the National Guard and it was well-known as a good way to avoid Vietnam.

  108. 108.

    WaterGirl

    February 9, 2020 at 9:12 am

    @Kraux Pas: If you want to do the research on how much billboards cost in various places, then we could see what the goal would need to be and whether there is interest.

  109. 109.

    debbie

    February 9, 2020 at 9:31 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    (Sorry, fell asleep.)

    Morgan Harper. She’s young like AOC, graduating from high school in 2001, and in fact, there is a connection to Cordray. From the school’s FB page in 2015:

    Morgan Harper ’01, special advisor to the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington D.C., spoke with Upper School students at a Career Forum last week. Morgan spoke of her passion for service while at Columbus Academy, which led to pursuing degrees in public affairs and law, and her call to enact change at the federal level. She offered her perspective for working in the politically charged climate of Washington D.C. and explained how her background prepared her for her current work with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and director Richard Cordray.

    (Columbus Academy’s a good school; she got in with financial aid.)

    I wish she’d have gone after a district with a Republican Rep, like Troy Balderson, rather than cannibalizing a district with a strong, productive Democrat.

    Even more, I wish she’d have stayed where she was and fought more for the CFPB. That might have better helped her political prospects in the long run.

  110. 110.

    LAC

    February 9, 2020 at 9:52 am

    Had no idea that  Deval Patrick’s evil plan was to leach votes from Warren to satisfy his moneyed overlords.  I just thought he stepped in before it became #primarysowhite.  ?

    Not an effective campaign, but not deserving of vitriol.

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