So, another election has taken place in the last day or so: Ireland’s.
The big news is that Sinn Fein has kicked ass.
Sinn Féin candidates all over the country won huge victories, with many elected on the first count with huge surpluses, catapulting the party into the front rank of Irish politics and making it a contender for government. Fine Gael seems certain to suffer losses, while Fianna Fáil looks set to be the largest party in the new Dáil, analysts were projecting last night.
Given that no party will have a majority, or anything close to it, all kinds of maneuvers–and fuckery–remain on the table. See, e.g., this problem facing the Sinn Fein leadership:
The election has brought the party to a position of unprecedented power in the Republic. Mary Lou McDonald must now decide what she wants to do with that newfound power. She says she wants to go into government; it remains to be seen how earnestly she wishes to pursue that objective.
Sinn Féin wants power to advance its agenda of economic reform and Irish unity. But it will be acutely conscious of the experience of the Labour Party, the beneficiary of past surges in support – also among voters seeking a change – which entered government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and suffered decimation at the subsequent elections.
I know f**k all about Irish politics and even less about its electoral system, which clearly has its amusements. As in, it seems, as if I’m reading this right, that Sinn Fein will gain fewer seats than it could have because of the way they built their election list. Via the BBC:
Sinn Féin ran 42 candidates across the 39 multi-seat constituencies, about half that of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which will have a knock-on effect on the number of seats it can secure in the 160-seat Dáil (Irish parliament) where 80 seats are needed for a majority.
So here’s the bleg: I’m sure that in the commentariat there are many who know the territory, and at least some who have been avidly following the day’s events. Beyond my prediction that Boris Johnson and his immediate predecessors at No. 10 will be remembered as the catalysts for a united Ireland, what the hell’s going on?
Over to y’all…
Image: William Hogarth, The Humours of an Election III: the Polling, 1754-5.*
*Yeah. I know I’m using an English artist on the occasion of an Irish election–but Hogarth rocks. An equal opportunity satirist.
NotMax
Puckoon shall rejoice.
;)
satby
Oddly enough I’ve had a blistering argument all day with a friend of a friend (on FB) who took exception to my characterization of third party spoiler votes and stated Democrats should have voted for Jill Stein in 2016. After several paragraphs of *bullshit* and mansplaining US politics to me, turns out he’s Irish and proudly proclaimed he had voted Sinn Fein. So only insight I can offer is dumbfuckery is global.
Evap
Sinn Fein is the party of the IRA and has never done well in recent years. The other two major parties have said they will not join with Sinn Fein to form a government. They will likely try to join together along with some other groups to form a government, even though they don’t like each other. But they hate Sinn Fein more.
geg6
Yeah, this seems quite significant, but I know more about Irish politics circa 1917 than I do today’s. But I have also wondered how Brexit might affect the idea of Irish unity. My maternal grandmother is, if it’s possible, listening intently from the grave.
debbie
Take that, BoJo!
opiejeanne
@geg6: Me too, about knowing more about 1917. I worry that uniting the two Irelands will result in a really bloody war between factions in the north. The last time I read anything about unifying the two Irelands was that the Republic didn’t really want it, but that was several years ago.
Evap
Based on my experience being married to a Irishman and spending lots of time there over the past 35 years, I would say that Northern Ireland becoming a separate country seems more plausible than being united with the Republic of Ireland.
geg6
@opiejeanne:
I cannot remember for the life of me where I read it, but there was an article several months ago that the reporter talked to various people in Northern Ireland about Brexit and the ramifications for the Good Friday Accords and the border. More people than I would have thought, though certainly not all, were for exploring some sort of independent from the UK agreement. And of those who weren’t on board with that, the majority were desperate to not have to go back to the days of The Troubles.
opiejeanne
@geg6: I think independence from GB is more likely than reunification.
jl
I don’t know much more than what I just read in a few recent news reports. Looks like the Irish border is one of the little details Johnson punted to get his BREXIT. Northern Ireland will remain in EU defacto; trade and regulations will be uniform across the border. So, trade and regs change in the middle of the Irish Sea. And… Johnson will figure out how to fix it later…
So, maybe more Irish voters see a better chance at unification?
I’d love to hear what commenters from Ireland and UK think.
Martin
@opiejeanne: Independence would resolve the issue of the EU border. Unification can be explored separately.
geg6
@opiejeanne:
That was the tone I got from the article. Some saw it as not an option at all but most saw it as either the best option or a step on the way to unification. As someone brought up with a very Irish Catholic grandmother whose family came from County Kerry back in the 1840s and a mother who kept the torch burning, it really struck me.
satby
Except that Northern Ireland is predominantly Protestant and has always voted against reunification. And Sinn Fein’s role in the troubles aren’t forgotten. A Republic of Ireland with Sinn Fein as a ruling party unifying with Northern Ireland is very unlikely.
Eolirin
@Martin: There’s an established mechanism for reunification, as far as I’m aware there isn’t a clear one for independence. Especially one that isn’t entirely in the hands of the UK parliament, and why would the Tories grant them that?
sdhays
@geg6: One of the things I found absolutely stunning in the Brexit referendum vote was the vote out of Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland voted against Brexit, but it was something like 51/49 against, not the landslide against it should have been. It seemed to me that the “Brexit == Hard Border with Ireland” should have made anyone who remembers the Troubles forget about all other “concerns” and shut that shit down.
But apparently not. I certainly hope the consensus that going back to the Troubles would be bad continues to hold.
Eolirin
@satby: Sinn Fein will not be the ruling party. And given the way that Northern Ireland voted in the last UK election, the position of the Unionists is weakening. I think unification may be able to get to a majority if Boris fucks up the Brexit process enough.
LeftCoastYankee
I had a much deeper and current understanding back in the day, but here’s what it sounds like based on that.
There’s no easy equivalence to our system. The party lines of these 3 go back to the damn 1919 Revolution, and realignment has been slow.
The two primary parties are roughly equivalent to Blue Dog Dems (Fine Faile) and the Republicans of GHW Bush (Fine Gael).
Sinn Fein was the political arm of the IRA, and because of that there are parties of the same name in the North (and the UK), and the Republic of Ireland. I don’t know how coordinated or aligned they are anymore.
If SF in the Republic have excited a lot of folks but didn’t understand the rules I’d say they’re less obnoxious DSA equivalents. ?
As far as I’ve heard they are not anti immigrant, etc. That said, disruption of countries and borders fits Russia’s EU agenda, but this sounds more like an anti-“business as usual” vote than a Irish Unification vote.
Be interesting to see.
mrmoshpotato
OT – Has anyone else seen the “Forget traditional hair dye” ad up top? Anyone else think of a chocolate frosted cake?
sdhays
@Eolirin: If Scotland leaves, and that certainly seems where sentiment is heading at the moment, there will be the question of “Why can Scotland leave, but we can’t?” Between that, the fact that it’s the Tory government essentially cutting N. Ireland out of the UK in order to deliver Brexit that created this situation, and the history of violence associated with N. Ireland’s status, I think it’s entirely possible that as much as they might hate it, the Tory government wouldn’t want to risk opening Pandora’s Box up again by denying an independence vote.
Also, these Tories seem different from the past. I really can see them viewing independence as actually solving a headache for them.
JanieM
@satby:
At least based on numbers, that seems to be changing. The “Religion in Northern Ireland” numbers are pretty close, and the breakdown by age is even more striking.
jl
@mrmoshpotato: I get ads for baldness cures. I’ll have to wait to be promoted to higher status in the internet-ad-o-sphere before I know what you are talking about.
Edit: I am not bald, BTW. Have pretty thick hair all over my head. But, hey, the holy all-knowing internet ad algorithms have it all figured out, so who am I to object.?
HeleninEire
Still waiting for morning in Ireland so I can speak with my friends but I am not particularly surprised at this.
The housing crisis in Dublin is approaching mega crisis stage where landlords are taking 3 bedroom apartments and putting 2 sets of bunk beds in each room and then charging €500 per bed.
One bedroom apartments are closing in on €2,000 a month. Meanwhile the average Dublin salary is slightly over €30,000 annually.
Just for comparison, the €2,000 per month rent in on par with NYC (Queens) rents but I made 2.5X the salary in NY than I did in Dublin. And my salary at €47,000 there was substantially over the average.
Healthcare, in terms of waiting periods, is becoming a problem too, although in their defense, it is highly subsidized. At least you won’t go bankrupt there because of medical bills.
I dunno what the answers are but as I said, I am not particularly surprised.
And I have no clue what will happen with a possible re-unification or independence for the North. I don’t think anyone can say for sure. I fear for my wonderful Dublin friends because I am pretty certain that whichever happens it will happen after many bombs are exploded.
Mike in NC
We enjoyed seeing Dublin for a couple of days in August and then Belfast shortly thereafter. Quick introductions to complex places. Everybody seemed happy and content.
PJ
@satby: the last, and as far as I know, only border poll in Northern Ireland was in 1973 and was boycotted by the SDLP and Sinn Fein. Nearly 50 years later demographics and political circumstances are substantially different. I don’t know how a border poll would go down now, but if the UK’s economy declines further after Brexit, as seems likely, I think there is a good chance a majority of Northern Irish would seek reunification. Query, however, whether a majority of voters in the Republic would want to accept them. Politically, it would be a bigger deal than German reunification in 1990.
So Very Tired
Yesterday: An increasing number of Unionists are undergoing a sea-change in their thinking on “Irish Unity” in direct response to the incompetence of DUP leadership and the South-Of-England Tories clear (and equal) contempt for all factions of “bogtrotters” (as they clearly see us).
Being a respected, influential cultural minority in a progressive EU nation, with a combined Ulster Unionist party (UUP and DUP merger) becoming the third major party alongside Fine Fail and Fine Gael and with the power and reach of the fetid hand of the Church long removed, suddenly seems a distinctly less daunting prospect for the pragmatic bunch of 1950’s farmers that makes up the majority of the Unionist bloc. (“And sure the wee gay Indian fella seems nice enough”).
Today: No Unionist will ever countenance a “United Ireland” under Sinn Fein government. It’s one thing sharing power with the IRA in our own house but there’s many a home across ‘the wee six’ where a lusty cry of “NO SURRENDER” was heard for the first time in a long time tonight.
Any progress toward bringing a progressive, pragmatic Unionist youth on-side to the idea of a UI was destroyed in a heartbeat tonight. You will see a re-founding and resurgence of the UVF/UDA sooner than you will any legitimate chance of a bipartisan majority in a “pro-Unification’ border poll now.
This is far from a great victory for the Shinners.
Independent Ulster now.
Kent
I would expect an independent Northern Ireland as well as an independent Scotland to be severely frowned upon by the EU because so many countries like Spain will be unwilling to endorse recognition of separatist movements in the UK, as they have their own issues with Catalonia and the Basque Country. They won’t want to create the precedent of a break-off separatist region remaining in the EU. And there isn’t much point in creating an independent Northern Ireland or Scotland without EU membership.
Reunification with the rest of Ireland might be an easier sell with the EU.
KateinWhitehead
Long time lurker, first time poster. Context–born in Wales, raised in the States, moved to Belfast i 1992 (to do a ph.d. in politics). Been here ever since. First, it is a big we need to do something different vote. Not enough housing in the South, prices going up, people wanting something new. Second, SInn Fein has been doing a big–‘We aren’t gunmen’ project for a good decade. Gerry Adams has gone into retirement, Mary Lou was never a member of the Army Council, let’s talk about socialistm. Third, Ireland does have a history of third parties getting lots of votes, going into governent, not being able to cash the checks (or cheques) it has written, losing at the next poll, and people drifting back to the big two. Whether this is an instance of that, or a true realignment is hard to tell. But SInn Fein want to make the argument that they are the only party in government in North and South.
As to a united Ireland, I was always opposed. I love the NHS. Woke up after the brexit referrendum and thought f—em, I am would vote united Ireland tomorrow. And the day after that.
Anne Laurie
Not gonna claim any expertise on the current situation, but back in the early 1970s, the Protestant fear of being ‘outbred’ by the fecund filthy Catholics was presented as part of the impetus for the British police crackdowns that fired up the ‘new Troubles’. (That’s one reason the nuns in my parochial high school turned a blind eye to the students selling NORAID buttons from their lockers.)
I noticed, in passing, there seemed to be less of this Prot paranoia being mentioned by the American media during the 1990s ‘economic migration’ when half the young people in Ireland proper were moving to America (or Britain).
Not really surprising that it’s flared up now, given the NI ruling class has (once again) been ‘betrayed’ by the English. Like the Texan paranoia about ‘filthy Messicans’, whenever there’s an economic downturn, the local authorities decry the distant ruler of the federation for not allowing them to keep Those People in their place.
The existing government of Northern Ireland will never accept a reunion while the Sinn Fein exists — and the Sinn Fein will never disappear while ‘the Prots’ rule Northern Ireland. Boris Johnson has just put his fat thumb on the scale in the Sinn Fein’s favor, probably by accident, but who knows?
Amadan
Long-term reader in Dublin de-lurking:
@KateInWhitehead – spot on. Neither Brexit nor immigration featured as an issue, and those trying to read them into the SF surge are wearing Daily Mail tinted glasses (or worse, a Telegraph tinted monocle).
Housing, particularly in Dublin, Cork and Galway, was the top issue. However, climate concerns and the success of recent demonstrations gave a big impetus to what old fogies like me call youth activism: that drove up turnout for left-leaning parties.
Non-stop bad news about hospital overcrowding and cost overruns probably didn’t drive up turnout but definitely increased negatives for FG.
Reunification with NI is not a pressing issue in the Republic. The majority here are positively disposed but the attitude is a bit like considering adoption of your delinquent cousin. They’re probably ok, but there’s a metric ton of crap to be sorted out. We need a plan and we need buy-in from a decent majority. We saw what happened to the UK when they dived into the Brexit referendum without thinking through the consequences. We don’t want to follow that example.
The most entertaining part of this election (apart from watching the faces of some of our dear leaders getting shafted) has been reading bewildered English journalists trying to get their heads around our PR-STV voting system.
Sloane Ranger
This thread is probably dead but my two pennyworth anyway.
More Nationalist (Irish reunification) candidates won seats than Unionists in NI in the last UK elections. Probably a reflection of Boris shafting NI in his Brexit deal. Protestants are less likely to go all swivel eyed and foaming at the mouth at the suggestion of reunification than anytime previously but not if SF is any part of the government.
The outcome of the Republic’s election has nothing to do with either Brexit or Reunification and everything to do with a widespread feeling that a shakeup of RoI’s politics is needed. If asked, most Irish people would say that they would like reunification but not if it led to the Protestant paramilitaries dusting off their guns and bombs.
SF is unlikely to enter government. FF and FG will unite to prevent it (even if they end up fighting like ferrets in a sack) during their term of office.
Nellie
The SF vote is about economic anxiety, not reunification. Tech and finance are exploding in Ireland due to Brexit, as firms open offices in Dublin to take advantage of the only English speaking member of the EU. There is building going on all over Dublin. It is pricing ordinary people from housing to the point of despair. Farmers are suffering because of the idiotic 25% US tariff on Irish butter, and other reasons. SF can’t form a government, that’s nonsense. No one will align with them.
Jinchi
I’m not an expert on Irish politics, but this is an election in the Irish Republic, not Northern Ireland, right? Doesn’t a united Ireland require victories by pro-unification parties in the North? It seems to me that this could just as easily drive the North and South apart.
Barney
@LeftCoastYankee: I don’t think this was so much Sinn Fein “not understanding” the STV system, as having planned for a lower vote.
If you think it’s marginal that you’ll get 1 member returned for your party in a constituency, because you’re the 3rd placed party, then it makes sense to only run one candidate (if they ran 2, then the Sinn Fein vote could be split, and they might both get eliminated before, say, a Labour candidate). But if you’re the leader or 2nd, you can be fairly confident of getting 1 of them elected before the last round, and then it’s worth having a 2nd candidate (it’d help if you can persuade as many of your voters as possible to put a particular one as their first choice – that way, that one is safe, and the other is the “might get elected in the last round” one).
With STV, if your voters always put all your candidates at the top of their choices, you should be OK; but funny things can happen with personal preferences, especially further down the preferences. What’s happened is an indication SF did a lot better than they expected at the start of the election.
@Amandan might want to correct me, though, because STV really does have subtleties to get your heads around.
The Pale Scot
@satby:
Barely and soon to become the minority. SF has caught the tiger and now has to become a real political party.
Amadan
@Barney: SF have traditionally been a Marmite party: you either love em or hate em. As a result, they have tended to be ‘transfer unfriendly’, i.e. not to get many voters’ 2nd or 3rd (etc.) preferences. Their decision to run only 42 candidates probably reflected that pattern and a wish to maximize successes rather have too many losses.
As it happens, they caught an unexpected wave and picked up 1st preferences from voters they never usually expect to back them. So they have supluses that could have gone to electing a 2nd or even 3rd candidate in some seats. Instead, those surpluses are going to other leftish parties and independents. Problem is, not all of those will have had big 1st prefs of their own, so the SF transfers are not always enough to get them elected. That leaves enough ground under FG and FF to (nearly) hold SF in check.
We have had 3rd party surges before: Labour in 1992 also had too few candidates to capitalise on their 1st pref total. It’s usually very hard to hang on to them, as voters who switch that easily can do so again when the air goes out of the balloon.
The Pale Scot
The former EU president has said they’ll welcome Scotland with open arms
Donald Tusk: EU would ‘enthusiastically’ welcome independent Scotland
The Little Englanders will happily let NI go. Polls show a majority of the Tory Party are OK with that. NI is the Alabama of the UK fiscally, it gets huge subsidies, and that has been the case since WW2 and the Belfast shipyards closing.
As for the Republic that’s another bowl of soup. The RoI can’t afford to pick up the tab of running NI as it is presently configured. Peace in NI between SF and the DUP is kept by allowing them to split the UK subsidies. Agri products exported to the EU is their only money maker, and that relies on EU subsidies and frictionless access to EU markets. The DUP cadre is willing to use violence to keep things the way they are. The strident ones are mostly young earth creationist evangelical Presbyterians. Just like here, there’s no reasoning with these people.
So I don’t think unification is going to happen anytime soon. If it does it will be the Prods bombing London this time around. As sentimental as the Irish are, there isn’t a way to it that doesn’t cause bloodshed.
This quote always comes to mind when I think about unification;
The Rev John Dunlop of the Irish Presbyterian Church wrote,
“We are a people who live behind spiritual, political and ecclesiastical ramparts. We behave like batsmen facing hostile fast bowling on an uneven pitch: more concerned to survive than to win the match; playing for a draw at best; always defensive; seldom taking the initiative.”…
He also said at the time of the IRA ceasefire that the unionist community was not ready, prepared or happy with the beginning peace. He believed it was psychologically prepared to endure the violence rather than engage with republicans.
Brachiator
@Martin:
I don’t see independence coming anytime soon.
I am so sorry I missed this thread earlier. It is absolutely fascinating. I do not pretend to understand Irish politics, but have been trying to follow BREXIT and have tons of questions about what is going on based on trying to understand it.
Even though BREXIT has a huge impact on Northern Ireland and the Republic, the “official” Northern Ireland government has been suspended for, what? three years? because of political squabbles. So despite the importance of the border issues to BREXIT, a no formal government has been able to make its wishes known. This gave the Protestant and unionist DUP party more influence in the British Parliament. The DUP had also previously been essential in giving the Conservatives a working majority.
And while I guess that there are unofficial lines of communications between political leaders in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the UK, the lack of a formal government puts severe constraints on getting things done. The civil service cannot pass any legislation and even has limits on its ability to interpret laws needed to do its business.
So, if Northern Ireland cannot even form a stable government, I don’t see how it could seek any independence. And as another commentor notes here, the North appears to be heavily dependent on subsidies. This also argues against independence coming any time soon.
ETA: As I understand it, if there is not a formal Northern Ireland government in place, the British Parliament will have to pass any enabling legislation relating to BREXIT and Northern Ireland. Again, as someone who admits ignorance about Irish and Northern Ireland politics, I find it fascinating that even though the border issues seem to be very important to maintaining peace, the various political factions would rather continue squabbling than take direct control over their own future relationship with the UK and the EU.
I also find it interesting that a good number of British political commentators who have intense feelings one way or another about BREXIT want to ignore Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. But even when discussing the border, and upcoming negotiations , many of them had nothing to say at all about the general elections in Ireland. They seem to presume that the EU will speak for the Republic of Ireland, and that Ireland itself will have no influence on eventual outcomes. This sometimes seems like a weird hangover of attachment to faded ideas of British glory. They still want to see Ireland as an insignificant minor irritant.
Barney
@Brachiator: The DUP and Sinn Fein did restart the Northern Irish government, a month ago. A cynic might say that the DUP had lost its leverage over the Tories in Westminster after Johnson got his large majority, and SF didn’t look influential in the Republic then, so it was in both their interests to get something going where they could take decisions and look like serious political parties.