"American Factory," a documentary backed by the Obamas, just won best documentary feature, and it's streaming on Netflix: https://t.co/NCQPdXHZr4
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) February 10, 2020
The prediction markets say there's a 6% chance of Michelle Obama jumping in the race so I'm gonna go ahead and ignore the prediction markets.
— Iowasca Tripper (@agraybee) February 9, 2020
Our long national nightmare…
According to the Iowa Democratic Party, Buttigieg will claim 14 delegates, Sanders will receive 12, Warren will get eight, Biden will receive six, and Klobuchar will get one.
w/ @jennagiesta & @CNNPaul: https://t.co/OiR3yQd2Wg
— Dan Merica (@merica) February 9, 2020
NEW: The @BernieSanders campaign plans to ask for a recanvass of some Iowa precincts before the Monday 1 pm deadline, @fshakir tells @ryanobles
— Jeff Zeleny (@jeffzeleny) February 10, 2020
After spending 5 years and $50 million on campaigning, Bernie lost to a neophyte, so cue the asinine conspiracy theories https://t.co/GCtmpIE5oC
— Bernie Sanders praised George Wallace?? (@sensen2011) February 9, 2020
Better ideas!
I just went to an event with the amazing @lucymcbath and it reminded me: If you're burned out on the presidential primary, take a deep breath and focus down-ballot. Save the House, win the Senate, take back statehouses.
— Joan Walsh (@joanwalsh) February 9, 2020
Can we please stop doing the work of autocracies like Russia, and instead of scaring our voters, show them reasons that voting is worthwhile? If you want to see professionalism, volunteer with your local election office to be a poll worker. See for yourself.
— David Becker (@beckerdavidj) February 8, 2020
"You can screw up a lot of people's lives in 10 years" @StaceyAbrams explains her mission to make sure every community has a fighting chance #TheShopHBO @hbo pic.twitter.com/HiHzrYiDzz
— UNINTERRUPTED (@uninterrupted) February 8, 2020
On The Road – Albatrossity – Bartlesville OK
Baud
You’re late.
Anne Laurie
@Baud: One of these mornings, I won’t show up at all.
Baud
@Anne Laurie: We would worry.
OzarkHillbilly
So the Obamas now “have” on Oscar to their credit too. Another thing trump will never measure up to them on.
OzarkHillbilly
@Anne Laurie: You ever do that and cops will be knocking at your door to do a wellness check.
ETA: Unless you’re black or live in a minority majority neighborhood, than it would not be a good idea.
ThresherK
I’d file a lawsuit too, seeing how 1st v. 2nd in Iowa is worth 15% of the delegates needed for the nomination…
Wait, I’ll come in again.
satby
@Baud: we totally would worry.
@Anne Laurie: say it ain’t so!
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yeah, I can see it now: “Ma’am, some weirdo, said his ‘nym is OzarkHillbilly’ called us in a panic, wanted us to make sure you’re OK. No, ma’am, we don’t treat stuff like that as a joke. No, ma’am, he didn’t sound ‘like an effing nutjob,’ why do you ask?”
Not that AL would ever say “effing,” of course.
Anne Laurie
@satby: Nah, I’m just trying to catch up on the last week, before the new round of craziness gets into full gear.
I actually choose to disappear, I’ll let y’all know in advance.
If it’s not by choice, the Spousal Unit (who doesn’t even read this blog) knows to proxy one last post in my name.
OzarkHillbilly
@ThresherK: Yeah, both of them.
satby
@ThresherK: it’s just staying true to their brand. Even if he came in first they’d be bitching that the DNC tried to rob him. It’s just what they do. The right wing didn’t get all the grievance monkeys.
SFAW
@Anne Laurie:
If you’re shagged out after
a long squawkcelebrating your electoral victory, that would be OK. But other than that, we’d worry.Princess
Buttigeig’s delegate win is not a great sign for Sanders. I know they tout their higher raw vote number, but presumably the discrepancy is because they got more votes concentrated in the more urban areas. Dems already win urban areas. Sanders’ claim is that he can bring the disaffected white vote, including the rural vote. He didn’t do that in Iowa.
Baud
@Princess:
That’s something we haven’t talked about. I think I saw something that said Buttigieg did better in rural areas than Sanders. Not exactly the result you would expect. It’ll be interesting to compare to NH.
SFAW
They’re complaining about possible “fraud” in a freaking primary? Over no more than five delegates? Reminds me or a Mr. Boffo strip: “Honey, they shorted us on toothpicks again!”
Baud
@SFAW:
It’s their M.O. I used to read Booman’s blog daily, but never since he let his site be used to spread conspiracy theories about rigging the 2016 California primary.
Kay
Any 2nd place candidate would request a recanvass- it was close and it was a mess. It’s a due process issue, not just for the candidate but for their voters.
Betty Cracker
Maybe someone can explain this to me: how would results from a low-turnout Democratic primary demonstrate any candidate’s ability to draw rural voters and therefore beat back Trump? I thought the challenge Trump presents is that he ran up the score in rural counties, thereby erasing Dems’ advantage in cities. Maybe it would be notable if turnout for Candidate X was through the roof in rural counties, but AFAIK, that wasn’t the case in Iowa. What am I missing?
lahke
OT on an OT, but does anyone know what happened to @41Strange? You guys taught me to love it, and now it’s gone (sob).
Amir Khalid
That 6% estimate on the chances of Michelle Obama running for POTUS looks on the high side. I \wonder if the experts behind it are themselves on the high side, as it were.
Gravenstone
@SFAW:
Worse. The schmoozefest which is a caucus. Apparently Bernie’s people couldn’t twist enough arms/break enough eardrums to win out. Shame, that….
SFAW
@Baud:
Not sure why that bothered you. I mean, the ENTIRE primary was rigged. EVERYONE knows that Bernie actually got 20 million more votes (or was it caucuses? I can’t remember) than Hitlary. Sorry to see you’ve bought into the lie that Hitlary “won.”
Gravenstone
@Kay: None of the selective recanvass garbage, though. Every precinct gets a look through. Who knows, the shouty old bastard might lose a little more ground elsewhere?
Baud
@Kay:
Why would the Dems recanvass only certain precincts, however.
NeenerNeener
@OzarkHillbilly: Now all they need is an Emmy and a Tony, and Trump would stroke out.
SFAW
@Gravenstone:
Pedants will be the death of me.
Kay
@Gravenstone:
The recanvass rules are in the state code since this a certified total. Bernie and his voters are permitted due process.
satby
@Anne Laurie: not going to be specific, but early last month a jackal contacted me through my site to order some soap, but my store was on hiatus for the month. I missed her email for about a week, but then emailed back. Never heard back. Emailed again a few days later. Still no answer. Got worried. Figured like lots of us her email for her commerce is a spamcatcher, so sent her a PayPal invoice in case that went to a different email. Nothing, for three weeks. Was worried enough to start occasionally checking Legacy.com, nothing (if she reads this she’s going to laugh). Finally heard from her last night. Relief ! We take our AWOL jackals seriously.
SFAW
@Gravenstone:
What are you talking about? I wasn’t on the ballot
Anne Laurie
They said they were ‘taking a twitter break’ near the end of January. It’s not easy, finding all the best stuff to aggregate from the pixilated firehose that is social media!
Like you, I hope they’ll be back, rested & recharged, soon!
satby
@Baud: considering that’s also areas that tend pretty conservative and homophobic, Pete doing well there is surprising.
cain
The chances of Michelle jumping into the race is about -10%. She would run the other way, or possibly become violent to any who suggested it.
The film seems to have a similar to story to the 80s film Gung Ho.
Baud
@satby:
Right. You would think that Biden or Klobuchar would have done better there of they wanted someone not too lefty.
Anne Laurie
@satby: Yeah, the worst of social media is that now us hermits can worry about the wellbeing of people we’ve never even met in person.
There are a couple ‘missing’ jackals I do worry about. Not to mention those I remember fondly, but assume are now just too happy/busy to hang around here — like Cornerstone. (I know, but I unironically *enjoyed* CS’s snark, even when it was aimed at me.)
lahke
@Anne Laurie: Unfortunately Twitter seems to have banned them, or at least, it sounds like it when you arrive there.
Kay
@Baud:
As I understand it, Iowa certifies further back in the chain- certification triggers the state code rules, for obvious reasons- you’re changing a vote total. The state code will dictate it.
The NYTimes has a story up that Iowa totals may have often been inaccurate, which doesn’t surprise me at all- election systems look like a mess when there’s a challenge. Everyone rags on Florida but states that are always blue or always red probably have the same issues, it’s just that no one sees them. The outcome is never in doubt. The cracks only show up under stress.
Butter Emails
@NeenerNeener:
Nah. A remake of the apprentice with Obama taking Trump’s place as the lead. Except the premise is that the contestants receive job training and at the end he gets to announce to one or more people that “you’re hired”.
Baud
@Kay: If thems the rules, thems be rules. I have no problem with it, but it seems easy to game if you’re the second place finisher.
Amir Khalid
@satby:
Then again, he’s doing well with voters who tend to disapprove of Republican-style “conservatism” and homophobia.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
I was worried today!
Chyron HR
Bernie last week: RECANVASSING IS RIGGING THE PRIMARY!
Bernie this week: RECANVAS NOW OR WE’LL KILL THIS DOG!
satby
@Anne Laurie: I liked Cornerstone and still miss him. His son is a teenager by now I think (around 13?) and he doted on his boy just like Imm does on the Imp. I like hearing about second gen jackals-to-be.
Steeplejack
C’mon, man! [ESPN voice]
Anne Laurie
My personal take-away is that it’s a bad sign for the Sanders campaign in two particular metrics. First, they counted on a lot of ‘pledges’ who apparently didn’t show up… whether because the canvassers who got those pledges didn’t follow up to make sure every voter had access, or because some percentage of those ‘pledges’ only wanted the canvassers to go away & never had any intention of taking an evening at the local gymnasium / church hall.
The other sign — and this is anecdotal, but there were a plethora of such anecdotes — is that when Sanders didn’t quite reach viability on the first tally, his supporters simply walked out instead of trying to persuade others to join them in the next round. Meanwhile, when other ‘minor’ candidates failed to make the 15% cut, while some Buttigieg / Warren / Klobuchar supporters were friendly, the Sanders people either ignored them or were actively off-putting.
Whether or not you like the man — and you *know* what I think about him — his most fervent supporters are doing him no good whatsover when it comes to the wider electorate.
Baud
@Chyron HR:
When did he previously complain about recanvassing? I can’t stand him, but assertions that aren’t common knowledge still need support.
Princess
@Betty Cracker: The Bernie campaign is the one that said they could win WV because he crushed Hillary in its primary in 16. I’m not talking about reality — I am talking about their strategy. They expected to come out of Iowa with a clear win and big turnout numbers across the board to argue they could win white voters back. They can’t do that now — Pete won and turnout was moderate, and they can’t even claim strength in less traditional Democratic areas. I’m just pointing out it is even worse for them than it appears on the surface.
Kay
@Anne Laurie:
I guess I’m just wondering why Iowa is unrepresentative and doesn’t count and attracting rural Obama/Trump voters is hugely offensive, unless a candidate other than Bernie does it, in which case it’s a huge win.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Anne Laurie:
I just went and told Mr DAW that if another heart attack kills me, he should let BJ know. He asked, “Why?” To which I responded, because I said so. It’s too hard to explain.
Anne Laurie
@satby: [CornerStone voice]: Snoopy old biddies cooing over strangers’ baby pics!
WaterGirl
@satby: I’m glad your jackal was okay!
Sometimes it’s not worth it to people jump through a hoop a second time, even if it’s a small one. For instance, half the people who ordered calendars the first weekend (when all the orders were being cancelled by Cafe Press) never reordered.
And these were people who ordered the calendars right away, so surely they wanted them! Maybe discretionary income dries up in the meantime, or maybe it’s just human nature to say never mind, not worth the trouble.
People are complicated!
satby
@Anne Laurie: one of the people I know from the UU church I go to canvassed for Pete and confirms that the Sanders folks often did exactly what you’ve heard anecdotally. He attracts a segment who just have no intention of working with others to get a win, and that’s a bad sign for all of us.
Baud
For the record, if I’m missing for six months, you should just assume I’m dead, in a coma, or in prison.
satby
@Dorothy A. Winsor: INORITE? I’ve mentioned it to my kids.
Morzer
@SFAW: I personally counted more than 1 million undead voters shuffling out of the cemeteries of Iowa to vote for His Revolution.
Chyron HR
@Baud:
RoseAnn DeMoro @RoseAnnDeMoro
Feb 6
Tom Perez wants the #DNC to do a recount of the #DNC now that @SenSanders is pulling ahead of their mangled process. Oh that will be credible. No one trusts the #DNC. What part of that is so hard to understand??? #Bernie2020
satby
@Baud: we will go to the ends of the earth to find out. Put it in a will or something ?
Morzer
@Anne Laurie: My fear when it comes to Sanders is that he evokes one of two reactions: passionate adoration and vehement dislike. I don’t see how he unifies Democrats, never mind winning a national election.
OzarkHillbilly
Drive-By Truckers: ‘We have redneck in us. No one tells us what to do’
Their latest is pissing off all the right people:
No thoughts, no prayers
Can bring back what’s no longer there
The silent are damned
The body count is on your heads
Turn off all the lights nobody make a sound
Ashes to ashes, we all fall down
Are we out of time when we turn this song around?
Are we out of time when we all fall
(We all fall down)
The body count is on your heads
The body count is on your heads
satby
@Kay: it’s that Bernie’s schtick was that those were the voters he would bring into the Democratic fold, and then he didn’t, but a neophyte at national elections did. So they were gettable, but not by Bernie, as he claimed.
Butter Emails
@Morzer: I’ve had fewer issues with Bernie himself this primary season. My issue is that he picked a large cohort of toxic staffers.
Betty Cracker
@Princess: Thanks! I agree with the skepticism about Sanders’ supposed 2016 strength in deep-red strongholds like WV. I’m just wondering why any candidate would tout primary wins in rural areas, absent a notable surge in turnout. (Even that could be suspect, depending on state participation rules and Republican rodent sexy time campaigns.)
Morzer
@Butter Emails: I think that his toxic supporters reflect Bernie’s own behavior rather too closely for comfort. He’s done nothing to make them behave better and they certainly believe that they are doing the Lord Wilmer’s work.
Morzer
@Betty Cracker: When you speak of Republican rodent sexy time, you create an unforgivable image of Trump and Rand Paul’s hairpieces copulating frenziedly.
Baud
@Chyron HR: Appreciate it.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Baud: Pete might be gay but he’s also a war veteran. I’m guessing that goes a long way in rural areas.
I have lots of Trumpers on my facebook feed and none of them seem to have any issue with gay people. Granted they’re all Gen Xers so maybe the boomers and older still vote on that issue some but if you’re 50 or younger it’s live and let live. I’m sure there are still some people who disapprove but they seem to be very few and far between.
satby
@Betty Cracker: and that’s a fair point, but the ratfucking so far has been to vote for Bernie, not a relative unknown like Buttigieg.
it also shows that Trump may be weaker in rural areas than assumed, though in a general they’ll likely revert to type.
I think Rachel Bitecofer’s analysis on groups of voters is interesting.
Sab
@satby: That’s sweet.
Princess
@Betty Cracker: Agree completely. I think they were really expecting to get that massive turnout, if not in rural areas, at least from students and that when they didn’t get it, it’s why they all turned so mean online the night of the caucus and have kept it up. They are shaken and flailing. That’s how I read it at least. They believe their own hype about drawing millions of non-voters in. I don’t think Bernie post heart -attack has the energy to do that any more. He’ll hold the line on his devoted supporters and that is it. I think he’s stuck around 25%.
Kay
@satby:
Right. If he wins New Hampshire we’ll have to change the rules again, but okay.
If Bernie had won rural areas but lost urban areas what would be the “analysis”? Because that’s what Pete did. I’m okay with the approach – I get it- but I think you have to decide and it’s valid for one candidate it should be valid for another.
I think the Democratic candidate DOES have to hold down margins in rural counties- certainly in PA and WI and MI. But I always thought that.
schrodingers_cat
@Anne Laurie: The clearly stated goal of many BS followers (some with huge Twitter followings and some even with the official campaign) is to destroy the Democratic party. They spend more time hating on Ds than Rs, Rs they want to woo, the more racist the better. But HRC, Biden and their supporters are the “enemies”.
A Ghost To Most
CNN just aired a report on Clearview AI. Seems they scraped social media for pix, and created a database of faces they sell to law enforcement. Welcome to fascism.
satby
@Morzer:
I think that too. Plus, the President is an executive with the most important managerial job in the world, and Sanders is demonstrating that’s not in his skill set.
Chyron HR
@Butter Emails:
If only the
TsarBern knew!A Ghost To Most
@OzarkHillbilly: I’ve had the album for ten days, but haven’t felt up to listening to it yet. I’m sure it will really start me up. I did see and listen to the video for “Thoughts and Prayers”. Powerful shit.
Geminid
Re Sanders supporters walking out when their candidate did not achieve viability: shows good party discipline on the part of Democratic Socialists of America. Last summer, at their national convention, a member put up a motion to support a Democratic candidate if Sanders did not get the nomination, because Trump is an existential threat. Leadership did not allow a vote.
satby
@Kay: that analysis is not on the caucuses or nominees in general, it goes specifically to one of Bernie’s claims of electability. It would still be discussed if Biden or Klobucher had won those instead of Buttigieg.
Iowa is still not a representative state and all previous reasons why it should be first apply.
joel hanes
@Kay:
Requesting a recanvass is one thing. I agree, the situation calls for at least making the request.
Alleging deliberate conspiracy is something else — something we would not expect from the supporters of any other candidate.
satby
@Geminid: purity kills.
opiejeanne
@joel hanes: But it’s totally unsurprising coming from Wilmer’s camp.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
They don’t need a notable surge in turnout. It’s a numbers game. They’ll have a benchmark for rural counties- Obama’s was 8k in this one. What they can’t have are Trump numbers- 75%.
They’ll all court rural voters. They cannot win the upper midwest without them. They need 40%, or thereabouts. That’s literally the entire conundrum for Democrats- they have to do both.
That’s why Biden’s pitch was so appealing, AA + white working and middle class, and is less appealing now, since he didn’t win those voters in Iowa.
Betty Cracker
@satby: That’s my ongoing issue with Sanders, whose policy goals are probably closer to mine than anyone in the race other than Warren. I could even get over my lingering anger about 2016 — I’m a practical person who has voted for lots of candidates whom I don’t personally like and who have supporters I find obnoxious.
But to turn around and hire and/or employ as surrogates people who repeatedly and on cameras urged disappointed 2016 supporters to vote for Stein? It’s really hard to get past that. I will if I have to, but I hope it doesn’t come to that.
As a progressive, I worry that a Sanders administration stacked with rigid ideologues would be so incompetent and toxic that it would set back single payer, etc., for a generation. It would also be a sitting duck for a smarter Republican demagogue (Tom Cotton!), though I worry about that with Biden too…
O. Felix Culpa
FIFY. I have a few local Bernie cultists in my fb feed, and they NEVER attack Trump or the GOP. Their most recent attacks are on Pete, Nancy Pelosi, and…wait for it…Adam Schiff.
Chyron HR
@Geminid:
Just imagine if Bernie told them all to shit on the floor and roll around in it and every single one of them did. What spectacular PaRTy DiSCipLiNE that would be!
Another Scott
@Morzer:
Larry David got St. Bernard exactly right on the most recent SNL (9:31). The bit starts around 7:35.
Cheers,
Scott.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Good point about the existing benchmark. I don’t know what we can extrapolate from the Iowa results. My understanding is turnout was far below 2008, but there could be all kinds of reasons for that, including that Democrats intend to vote for the Democrat, whoever it is.
Kay
@satby:
It’s all of their claims of electibility. It is the second pillar of Joe Biden’s entire campaign. AA + white working class and middle class. It’s the whole thing and has been for 50 years.
JPL
@satby: Same.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@O. Felix Culpa:
What do they have against Adam Schiff?
cliosfanboy
I want to see American Factory now. I worked in that plant when it was GM. And the film makers are from Wright State, where i earned my MA. Old home week at the Oscars
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
I don’t know why turnout was lower than ’08. I don’t think a caucus is a good measure of that though, so we’ll see in the remaining primaries.
IMO, it’s going to be really difficult to win. I don’t think any of these candidates have “brought the party together” or we would be seeing a consolidation around one. We’re not. Amy looks like she’s creeping up on Warren and Warren has been the most consistently “we must have unity!” person.
I’m taken with Amy this week because I get a kick out of her sort of defying convention on female candidates. It’s interesting. There’s a kind of gleeful competitiveness about her that I think is new. She’s not “nice” and she doesn’t seem to give a shit about the rule that female candidates have to be “warm”. I’m delighted someone is risking this.
I have become aware of what I see as really reflexive sexism in our politics. I think it might be connected to the fact that the media industry itself is (we have learned) incredibly backward on women. It doesn’t surprise me- I think media is really conventional as far as an industry, but it interests me. I was not as aware of it as I am now.
Ladyraxterinok
@Gravenstone:
My ex said Klobucher won son’s caucus in Ames, home of IaState, Natnl Animal Disease Lab. He lives in middle-class neighborhood, older part of city, can walk to downtown or over to job at IaState
satby
@Betty Cracker: we already have a model of how things go with rigid ideologues in power now. And it’s been pretty bleak. Ideologues on our side won’t be much better, because the maw of the Purity Dragon must always be fed by ever more rigid adherence.
tarragon
@Baud:
In that order?
Kay
I spoke to my Denmark son yesterday and all he could talk about was “Storm Ciara”- I notice as he stays out of the US longer he talks less and less about it, which is natural I suppose. He’ll vote though- he’s an Illinois voter. He’s a centrist so I suppose he will support whichever centrist is the leader. He was a huge fan of Clinton. He’s very blunt as a person – he told me once, with admiration, that “Clinton is our Nixon”- he meant “get shit done”, not the criminal part :)
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Yep. This screen grab from the debate speaks to me! :)
mrmoshpotato
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Isn’t it obvious? Think of it this way – if you have a dripping kitchen faucet, you fix it by burning your house to the ground with everything in it and rebuilding.
That’s just logic.
Anne Laurie
This is gonna sound weird, but: What people who weren’t around during the Reagan administration might not know is that, up until AIDS, it was possible for ‘nice’ Middle Americans to pretend they didn’t know a single gay person. It’s true! The hypocritical divide between ‘decent people’ and ‘perverts’ — which required not only a lifetime of miserable pretense for gays, but a determined social blindness by ‘straights’ — was so strong that the idea of even 1% (much less 10%) of ‘ordinary’ people might fall on the ‘wrong’ end of the Kinsey scale was legitimately shocking even to reasonably educated, otherwise intelligent Americans.
The ‘gay plague’ cured that determined social blindness, because suddenly all the ‘normals’ had a cousin or a co-worker or a friend or a beloved neighbor who wasted away & died before their eyes. If Rock Hudson was ‘like that’… well, then, the Consensus changed with (by sociological standards) amazing quickness.
Now, outside of deeply orthodox religious believers & hypocrites, ‘gay’ is just another human attribute. Some gay people are okay, others are — kinda annoying. But it’s not shocking, the way it was.
Sometimes there is actual human progress!
Josie
@Kay:
I’m starting to like Amy also. I hesitate to admit it, since my support seems to be the kiss of death. You know, sort of like when you hate to watch a football game because, if you do, your team will do poorly.
I can just imagine her jerking things around straight in the executive branch and getting things moving again.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ???
mrmoshpotato
Has anyone else ever awoken from a dream (nightmare) in which you’re in an English class being taught by….Rudy Giuliani…and he’s an asshole?
I also forgot to being back a set of kitchen knives from Europe for a junior high classmate.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
That’s me in every pretrial, Betty :)
I sometimes stretch my legs out because they cramp listening to these fucking blowhards go ON AND ON.
My youngest sister is attuned to these things and she’s been texting me Amy-isms.
Yesterday she said “I will fire DeVos in the first 100 seconds”
She will, too :)
opiejeanne
@rikyrah: Good morning.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: No, just the one where you’re in your underwear at church or school. Or the one where something terrifying is chasing me.
O. Felix Culpa
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I don’t remember exactly (mostly because I don’t have the mental or emotional bandwidth to pay too much attention to these haters), but I think it had something to do with Schiff getting money from people in tech. Can you imagine, a politician from California getting support from people in the tech industry? Quelle horreur.
mrmoshpotato
@opiejeanne: What about the one where something terrifying is chasing you through a church or school while it’s wearing your underwear?
JPL
It’s possible that some people are going to vote for the nominee. I use to have strong preferences and still don’t want Bernie or Tulsi, but plan on voting for the nominee. Maybe turnout is irrelevant.
Steeplejack
@rikyrah:
Good morning. ?
Baud
@rikyrah: Good morning.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: No, but now I will.
There’s also that one where a teacher is asking the class questions, and none of it is familiar.
Ha! When I was 7 we visited my Mormon cousins in Salt Lake City, and on Sunday they sent me to something resembling Sunday school (I don’t remember if they called it that) with those cousins. It was exactly what I described above, teacher asking about things I’d never heard of, and I was a regular Sunday school goer at our Methodist church. After she realized that I was lost she gave me a picture to color while she went on with the lesson
After that we drove to the newly opened Dinosaur Monument, which didn’t have paved roads yet. Dad got out of the car at one point because he couldn’t see over the hood to tell if the road curved, and there was a pretty steep drop on one side.
mrmoshpotato
@opiejeanne:
Yikes.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker:
2008 turnout was an Obama anomaly, so it makes no sense to me that they are using that as a baseline. I think we should be comparing to 2000, 2004, 20016. Possibly 2012 because some of the Obama sheen had worn off by then.
WaterGirl
@JPL: Turnout is never irrelevant. It’s everything. That’s how Obama won in 2008. He brought new people to the table, and turnout numbers shocked everyone.
Hillary’s campaign looked at expected turnout, did the math, and they surely had goal numbers for each and every precinct that she needed in order to win. Obama surely did.
But those numbers are totally based on turnout, and if you get turnout wrong, way wrong, even meeting or exceeding your goals gets you a loss.
Turnout is everything.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: But if we don’t compare to 2008, how can we argue that all the Democrats are unpopular? People are a setting an anomalous peak as a norm; who is setting that as the narrative and why?
James E Powell
@Kay:
My sense is that for a woman to win the presidency in this country, she will have to be like Ann Richards, a little rough around the edges.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: Yeah, you don’t expect the grade to be so steep at a National Monument/National Park. I hope they have since fixed that. We were in a ’57 Ford, which wasn’t a land yacht but it had a long enough hood. I did the same thing with a 1990 Jeep Cherokee once, but we were on a dirt road that wasn’t maintained, heading to a “dog town” just off of 395 in California. The directions to the mostly defunct mining town said to turn right at so many tenths of a mail past the previous cross road, just before the guard rail. At the bottom of the long Conway summit grade.
Just One More Canuck
@OzarkHillbilly:
Rudy’s going to announce that Ukraine fixed the Oscar vote – he has evidence!!!! that he’ll show in a ‘couple of months’
O. Felix Culpa
@Omnes Omnibus:
Excellent question (seriously). What are your thoughts about cui bono?
Omnes Omnibus
@O. Felix Culpa: Trump and the GOP in general. Within the Democratic Party, if it benefits anyone, it is the burn it all down people.
O. Felix Culpa
@Omnes Omnibus: Makes (sad) sense. Sigh.
mrmoshpotato
@Just One More Canuck: Is that “evidence” going to come out with Dump’s “evidence” from Hawaii that Obummer is a secret Muslim terrorist Kenyan?
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
There was much muttering (whence it came is a different question) about expectations for record breaking turnout, so following that with comparisons to the record were de rigueur.
Geminid
Of 10 major party candidates in 5 presidential elections since 2000, Trump had the second lowest vote total, barely edging out McCain’s 2008 vote. We have to beat him and we can. Voter suppression, election security are critical.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Excellent questions, both of them.
Just One More Canuck
@O. Felix Culpa:
Schiff? Seriously? Dare I ask why, or is it a matter of ‘that way be dragons’?
Just One More Canuck
@opiejeanne: I occasionally have a dream where I find out that I didn’t finish 1 high school credit – I’ll be 60 in a few months
ryk
@WaterGirl: i missed the whole CafePress calendar screwup, so I didn’t get a calendar. But I do get daily spam from CafePress now…
WaterGirl
@ryk: You can still order the calendars – the link is in the blue box in the upper right-hand corner. It’s in the hamburger on mobile.
You can unsubscribe from CafePress emails.
WaterGirl
@ryk: You should check out the calendar – it’s especially nice this year because of all the In Memoriam quotes from General Stuck, efgoldman, Schlemezal, greennotGreen, and Scotian.
Beth really outdid herself this year.
ryk
@WaterGirl: It just re-ordered the calendar. It bugs me that it will be almost March before I get it, but it’s for a good cause.
WaterGirl
@ryk: I think you’ll get it a lot sooner than March, but I take your point.
Because it was late, we checked to see if we could start the calendar with February, but CafePress doesn’t allow that option.
It was going to be late this year, but there were so many issues with Cafe Press this year that it triple compounded the problem.
Definitely not ideal! If it makes you feel any better, Beth and I talked about getting started in Sept or October next year.
WaterGirl
@ryk: : I’m glad you reordered. I think of this year’s calendar as kind of a keepsake. I really miss General Stuck, and efgoldman, and Schlemezal, and seeing the quotes and being reminded of what great people they were, and how clever and smart they were.
That’s a comfort, but it’s also bittersweet to be reminded that they were here, because of course now they are gone.
J R in WV
@Butter Emails:
But, don’t you see, that IS an issue with Sanders. If he fills the White House up with toxic staff, how exactly will that be different from Trump’s White House being managed by Stephan Miller, Jarvanka, et al~??
It won’t be much different, and that is an issue with Sanders.
something fabulous
@WaterGirl: I think in this case it may also just be the nature of calendars! When this one wasn’t ready, they went out and got something, to be covering January, so now it feels redundant to get?
WaterGirl
@something fabulous: I had not thought of that!
Just one more reminder of what different creatures we humans are. :-)
I buy a wall calendar when there’s a calendar I particularly want. So if I wanted the BJ calendar, I would order it no matter the timing. Plus I like that the money goes to pet rescue.
I don’t buy a wall calendar every year, so It didn’t occur to me that some people would do it the other way around, as you described. But it makes perfect sense.