The New Hampshire polls have just closed. Here’s a thread to keep track of the media’s hysterics and perhaps real results.
Also, too: The uproar in and around the Department of Justice continues. Trump just pulled the nomination of former U.S. attorney for D.C. Jessie Liu to serve as the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial crimes. Hard to say if this is connected to today’s resignations of the prosecutors in Roger Stone’s case, or if it’s just Trump rampaging because he can.
Open thread!
Thinking About Nuclear Deterrence
jl
Since an open thread, I finally got an ad that did not imply I was a fat bald bankrupt couch potato who desperately needed cheap auto insurance, teeth implants, and a sketchy mortgage re-fi. But when clicked to see comments, it disappeared.
Chris Johnson
I wonder how badly enemy action has fucked the NH primaries :)
To some extent, we have to AGREE to be stampeded into chaos by media reports of dire terrible stuff going on. We’re doing the Democratic primary. It is not over in two little states. There’s loads of fuckery going on but there’s a limited amount of fuckers available to fuck with us, and I think a lot of them are busy running interference for Trump right now.
WaterGirl
@Chris Johnson: did you mean not to be stampeded?
Eric U.
the berniebros are dancing on Biden’s political grave right now. I always wished Biden hadn’t run, and one of the reasons was I didn’t want to watch him not win.
pamelabrown53
Have the results tuned into MSNBC. However, it’s muted because regardless the station, I find the bloviators unbearable. Good luck to all who are truly invested in a candidate (unless you’re a Bernie supporter)!
Raoul
Seeing that Jessie Liu had overseen the Stone case, and was set to testify to a Senate committee on Thursday about confirmation. We don’t know what questions were planned, but certainly that past role left openings to embarrass or even implicate Trump.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Chris Johnson:
And Roger Stone is still in custody so far, right?
Omnes Omnibus
@Eric U.: It is too soon do be dancing on anyone’s grave yet.
pamelabrown53
@Eric U.:
I’m waiting to see how he does in South Carolina (especially) and Nevada. If Biden actually collapses then I’ll most likely move to Warren or Klobuchar when I vote on Super Tuesday.
WaterGirl
What time can we expect to have at least a decent amount of NH returns in?
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: People have been dancing on my grave for years.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I don’t want to upset you by saying this, but I have been in near perfect agreement with just about every comment of yours that I have seen in the past two weeks.
I think something, and then wait a few comments and I see that you have already said it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Sorry about that. I won’t wear cleats next time.
Nicole
@jl: The ads I’m seeing are all for Breyer Animal Creations. Because apparently the site thinks I’m a 12-year-old. Have no idea where it got that…
…As I sit here drinking out of my unicorn mug…
WaterGirl
@Baud: If tonight is a bust for the actual democrats, are you poised and to write up your campaign platform so we can put it up on BJ?
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Seek medical help.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
I can’t pay you like a billionaire can.
WaterGirl
@Nicole: That a bunch for writing “Bryer”. Now I’m thinking about ice cream and I promised I wouldn’t eat dessert until Friday.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I’m used to not getting paid!
edit: No, I have never worked for the dumpster.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Oh, I’m not concerned for myself; I just thought you might find it alarming. :-)
Ohio Mom
I step away from my screen/the news for (does math) a little over five hours and what’s this, the Justice Department has been turned upside down and inside out?
It just makes me exhausted, keeping up.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: I do. I am now worried about you.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
on twitter, Bernie’s voters are screaming that the exit polls are…. (checks notes)… rigged.
No, seriously.
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Are they bad for him?
mrmoshpotato
No. Time for Scream and Scream Again.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: As long as you don’t consider writing my comments for me billable time, I think we’re good.
WaterGirl
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: That is not a good sign for Bernie.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Hmmm…. Billable time.
Baud
@Ohio Mom: So stop stepping away!
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Save it for Balloon Juice After Dark.
LAO
Anyone else annoyed that the NH primary is going to knock the 4 alarm fire at the DOJ off the news cycle? I’m annoyed.
Nicole
@WaterGirl: Heh. When I was 12 “Breyer” was the company name for my two favorite things in the world- the toy horses AND the ice cream. Especially the chocolate, when I would take it out of the freezer and eat it straight out of the carton so I could get the really creamy part as it melted along the edges…
…I’m not helping, am I?
Chris Johnson
@WaterGirl: No, I did mean ‘agree to be stampeded’. We get goaded on by rags like the New York Times etc, which I think is completely compromised at this point, and we’re fed ‘information’ specifically to stampede us.
But in some respect we have to agree upon the terms: oh noes, bad news! Oh noes, the media sees it like this! Oh noes, the poll says that! The american public is untrustworthy and corrupt and sexist and racist!
When sometimes we’re not hearing from the American public at all, by design.
We’ve got to fight hard to protect the most fundamental mechanisms of democracy, as in ‘voting’ and ‘letting people vote’ and ‘counting said votes’. We’re not going to ALSO have impartial media witnesses, helpfully telling us what happened. Instead, they are corrupt, they’re going to do their level best to make us freak out and riot.
“Tomorrow you’re homeless—tonight it’s a blast” – Riot, by the Dead Kennedys (also “playing right into their hands…)
We have to AGREE to be stampeded, or it will not work. To be stampeded, to play into their hands, we have to have some kind of childlike faith in various trusted sources that can be exploited. Looks like that’s all in flames now.
We don’t need childlike faith in authorities. We need to be smart, perhaps cynical (what even IS cynicism in 2020? Who saw this coming?) and ready to fight. And we are.
We have to agree to be stampeded. We can just sit stubbornly and piece together a reality that is most unwillingly given. ‘more will be revealed’. Bet on that.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I always seem to miss those threads.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Yes, they’re showing large turnout by the olds and meager turnout by the youngs.
Marcopolo
So I’m going with ignore anything anyone says about exit polls, we should know soon enough how folks actually voted—unlike Iowa.
Also too, it sounds like a fair number of people made their minds up at the last minute. Like in the line @ the polls or in the voting booth. If true, I find that effing nuts. I guess it isn’t so bad if they are torn between different choices but the people in N.H., where they’ve been inundated by primary crap for months, who suddenly look up and go, “Oh, there’s an election today who should I vote for?” Those people kill me a little bit on the inside.
sukabi
Drumpf probably pulled her nomination because of this:
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/trump-withdraws-treasury-nomination-of-ex-us-attorney-who-oversaw-stone-case-two-days-before-her-confirmation-hearing/
His family and friends are probably about to move or receive huge piles of $$$ and don’t want the attention.
WaterGirl
@Nicole: If it had been coffee or toasted coconut, I might be cranky, but I’m saving my chocolate craving for my tiramisu on Friday night.
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
We could use some good news. ?
Cacti
Biden benefitted for months from having the center lane basically all to himself. Then several other candidates started making plays for it simultaneously, after realizing the left wing wasn’t a majority maker, and Bernie had already locked it up.
Love Joe, but I think it’s going to be hard for him to recover now that he’s competing against the 60 billion dollar Bloomberg machine for the same group of voters, not to mention Butteagle, and Klobuchar, especially with his meager fundraising success to date.
WaterGirl
@Chris Johnson: I still don’t quite get that, but maybe if I come back later and read it again I will understand. The rest I understood, but I’m not feeling the “agree to be stampeded” part.
Martin
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I really, really hate complainers.
oatler.
@mrmoshpotato: Judy Huxtable was the bees knees.
WaterGirl
@Marcopolo: Did you see the interview with the woman who said she literally did “Eeny, meeny, miny, moe” in the voting booth to decide between two candidates?
WaterGirl
@LAO: Could you see that my hand was raised? I’m way in the back, so I wasn’t sure you noticed me.
Martin
@WaterGirl: I think that just speaks to Democrats not caring who the candidate is – so long as it’s not Trump.
Mnemosyne
@Nicole:
I was looking up treehouses for rent near me. Turns out there’s an Air B&B on a farm that’s only about 50 miles away. They let you collect your own eggs to make breakfast. ?
WaterGirl
@Cacti: Why would you use the proper name for every other candidate and then something else for Buittigieg?
Suzanne
I am in Cleveland eating barbeque at Mabel’s and drinking beer because I can’t handle the results.
Omnes Omnibus
They let you?
chopper
@Baud:
can’t believe they’d be very good if they’re starting with this shit already.
Nicole
@WaterGirl: Oh man, I forgot how good Breyer’s coffee ice cream was/is! I think that was the first brand of coffee ice cream I ever tried and it still stands as the Platonic ideal in my mind, even though I haven’t had it for years (I try not to keep ice cream in the home; it’s just easier not to be tempted).
WaterGirl
@Mnemosyne: If you are looking at treehouses, your back must be better.
Cacti
@WaterGirl: Because I find him unctuous and annoying.
Mnemosyne
@Marcopolo:
FWIW, when I voted in the 2008 primary here in CA, I was genuinely torn between Hillary and Obama because I thought they were both great candidates. Ultimately, I chose with my heart and picked Obama, but it was a very close call.
chopper
@WaterGirl:
oh jesus this whole thing again.
Chris Johnson
@Ohio Mom: No, the Justice Department has been EXPOSED as being upside down and inside out. They already were that way, but something about the Roger Stone case forced them to tip their hand, and ‘Friday Night Massacre’ literally ensued: all the prosecutors quit one after the other to not be associated with the banana republicanism.
Ascap_scab
Getting rid of Liu was a two step process. They needed her gone so Barr could install his guy. She was never going to get the job at Treasury, but they needed to put her somewhere until Trump got acquitted by the Senate. Now they can axe her entirely.
Roger Moore
@Ohio Mom:
Trump knows he isn’t going to live for the length of a thousand year Reich, so he’s trying to make his term seem like it’s taking that long.
Martin
@Nicole: McConnells Coffee Ice Cream is the best. It’s a regional brand here out of Santa Barbara.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
11% say they’re only voting to fuck with the results. At some point the party has to realize open primaries are a bad idea.
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
Guess who was pushing it in 2016 along with caucuses.
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yep. You also get to pick fruit from their trees and enjoy the company of their cats and goats.
Obviously, this will not appeal to an urban sophisticate like yourself. ?
Jinchi
Can anyone tell me how that headline makes any sense at all? I mean I know there are other candidates, but did they report the first results of the 2016 general election as Trump and Clinton leading in race for the presidency?
Mnemosyne
@WaterGirl:
At long last, yes! The combined efforts of a chiropractor and a physical therapist have paid off. I’m almost completely better and just have to be careful when bending.
Cacti
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Today, Trump said that he would totally rather face Bloomberg than Sanders.
Given his sterling reputation for honesty, I certainly believe him. ;-)
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: Who says I don’t enjoy the company of goats?
Martin
@Jinchi: Reminds me of the CT weather report I once saw: 0″-24″ of snow expected.
Yeah, pretty hard to be wrong with that one. Even if it’s 90 degrees, you’re covered.
patrick II
@jl:
I also get ads implying that I am a fat bald bankrupt couch potato who desperately needed cheap auto insurance, teeth implants, and a sketchy mortgage re-fi, but in spite of that I can have a beautiful Asian wife So, on balance, I am O.K.
WaterGirl
@Nicole: I’m actually a Haagen Dazz girl, but Breyer still made me think about ice cream.
Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: Phrasing, my dude.
zzyzx
@Cacti: I would stay away from that nickname for a gay male candidate for obvious reasons.
I assume that that wasn’t your intent but it can read that way.
WaterGirl
@chopper: Not thrilled that I raised the question, or not thrilled that people keep playing pulling crap with his name?
Cacti
@zzyzx: I’m very sorry I misspelled the name of former mayor Buttigloo.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: He and his minions have a clearly stated goal of destroying the Democratic party or in the language of the Justice Dems, the Democratic establishment.
But if you point it out then you become the crazy one. Read Jacobin or Intercept articles by the trust fund socialists who shill for BS.
WaterGirl
@Martin: We don’t have that brand, but I would love to try it.
sdhays
@Baud: Better than pissing on it.
WaterGirl
@Mnemosyne: I thought his point was that you are doing their work for them by “getting” to gather the eggs.
mad citizen
Did not expect a Dead Kennedys reference here, excellent. Riot the unbeatable high.
In a hotel for work so I catch up on the cable world. Had MSNBC for 10 minutes. Brian Williams turned to Karnaki and said “I didn’t mean to startle you” Isn’t Karnaki perpetually startled and excited? There was a reference to Bloomberg dropping a stop and frisk video today because they knew it would not get attention.
Moved over to the dog show. The PA guy sounds like John Goodman.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: Obviously it was not meant for you jl.
WaterGirl
@Mnemosyne: Very happy for you! What a relief, both physically and emotionally
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
We know you like to participate in goat rodeos.
SiubhanDuinne
Andrew Yang is suspending his campaign.
WaterGirl
@Martin: Pretty sure Omnes knew exactly what he was saying.
Martin
@mad citizen: I like Kornacki but yeah, it always seems like he just polished off a 2L bottle of Mt Dew and really needs to pee.
Baud
@SiubhanDuinne: That’s good.
WaterGirl
@zzyzx: At least one person has already gotten a timeout, according to the stated policy, because of a not funny Buttigieg rename.
Baud
@Mnemosyne: Good news.
Roger Moore
@schrodingers_cat:
What they mean is that they aren’t interested in joining the Democratic Party; they want to execute a hostile takeover.
Nicole
@WaterGirl: Breyer’s was the FANCY ice cream when I was growing up. My mom, ever concerned that god forbid, her kids might be fat, would buy ice milk, which was… not good. My dad would bring home Breyer’s and Mom would be maaaaaad.
Sealtest! That was the ice milk brand!
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Get out of my head!!!!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: before I ever figured out why he was running?
I really want to see news tonight, not Steve Kornacki hopping around to tell me what the results with 8% are, or some goofball crank candidate pretending he ever had a chance
janesays
Andrew Yang is out, just being reported on MSNBC.
And then there were 10.
Roger Moore
@SiubhanDuinne:
About fucking time.
Kent
So a little bit off-topic here, but the black CNN analysts (wasn’t paying attention to who) are telling us that none of this matters because we haven’t heard from any black voters yet and that they like Biden. And that we need to LISTEN to black voters.
OK…..I’m listening.
Make the CASE for Biden. Don’t tell me that you are more “comfortable” with Biden. He isn’t a well-worn suit. You, as black voters tell me WHY I, as a white voter in Washington State should vote for Biden. Am I being dense or difficult? I honestly haven’t heard the positive case for Biden from the black perspective.
They also said that “ear to the ground” with the black vote that if Biden drops out, most of the black vote is shifting to Bloomberg.
Jeffro
We interrupt the NH “news” with this bit of OT hilarity: WaPo hack Marc Thiessen says hey y’all, NOW is the time for trumpov to expand his base.
Yes, really. I’ll skip over the infuriating parts like ‘now that the Mueller report exonerated trumpov’, etc etc and get straight to the ‘argument’, such as it were:
yes…because we’ve seen ample evidence that this president* cares a great deal about people who don’t vote for him (eyeroll) AND has the self-discipline to carry out a consistent message like the one this hack is describing.
trumpov wants African-Americans’ votes in order to doubly spite those same voters. It’s the same reason he lies when he doesn’t even have to: to him, getting one over on people is for him the highest form of success. May he, and Thiessen, be brutally disappointed this November.
sukabi
@Jinchi: they had to headline it that way to get Biden in the mix.
Cacti
@Roger Moore: But expect those of us who aren’t socialists (most Dems) to continue supporting the new Democratic Socialist Party with our time, money, and votes.
Sounds like a solid plan.
SiubhanDuinne
@Mnemosyne:
Oh, that’s really good news! Relieved on your behalf.
Jeffro
@Roger Moore: thank. goodness. Every little bit helps.
Martin
@Nicole: For me it was my grandparents that had Breyers – the good stuff. I’m not sure what garbage my mom bought, but it was terrible. She was going through a health kick phase for quite a while in there which meant it was probably 1970s era non-fat ice milk or, I dunno, frozen white lead paint.
But man, getting proper ice cream every night after dinner at the grandparents was some good living.
janesays
@Roger Moore: Words that Michael Bennet, Tulsi Gabbard, and Tom Steyer need to hear.
There are only six viable candidates in the race as of now: Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren. Everybody else is wasting their (and our) time at this point.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I wonder what the point of participation in last night’s debate, then? Get more donations before he suspended?
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I told you, didn’t I? I had that thought and then, bam, you posted it.
divF
@Cacti: “Unctuous, oleaginous, saponaceous”, as Disraeli put it.
Actually, I keep wanting to call him “Cuba Pete”, but only on the condition that he wears a green mask and learns to rhumba.
Amir Khalid
@Nicole:
Isn’t Breyer’s a Nestlé brand? As I understand, that same product is sold elsewhere as Nestlé ice cream.
janesays
@WaterGirl: The debate was Friday night.
Cacti
Not a good look for you, bro.
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s between you and your hairy little friends. ?
schrodingers_cat
@Roger Moore: Yes indeed, a hostile takeover like the Tea Party takeover of the Republican party. That would be a disaster of epic proportions.
WaterGirl
@janesays: Okay, that’s funny. I started watching the debate last night, and was watching more of it earlier this evening, so for me the debate was last night!! :-)
SiubhanDuinne
@zzyzx: Cacti’s been making childish and homophobic jokes on Buttigieg’s name for months now. I believe Betty Cracker sent him to a time out back in the summer for a similar offense.
sdhays
Fuck.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: We’ve already had two just this week.
Martin
@Kent: The case is who can best beat Trump. That’s it. That’s all it has even been.
Getting policies that help the black community is too much of an ask from where we are now with Trump. Getting Trump out is all they want. They don’t care how.
So, who is most insulated to being ‘but her emails’ from the NYT? Who has the money to get to the end? Who won’t turn off independents? They care fuck-all about the DNC or the philosophical foundation for the Democratic party.
Get Trump out. Period.
WaterGirl
@sdhays: Yeah. I want to know “whose ear” and “what do they have to gain by saying that.
Mnemosyne
@Kent:
I will explain it as it was told to me: Biden has spent years boosting Black politicians and making appearances to help them get elected. He is a team player, and African Americans trust him to keep his word and continue helping Black politicians get elected.
Bloomberg’s appeal is that he is strongly anti-gun and has poured a lot of money into lobbying and into grassroots groups like Moms Demand Action. He’s also made connections with mayors of smaller cities, many of whom are Black.
So that’s the case for Biden and (to a lesser extent) for Bloomberg: they know how to work well with others to get shit done. If that’s not appealing to you after 4 years of Trump, I don’t know what to tell you.
dnfree
@WaterGirl: Breyers is the same brand as Edys. Different names in different areas of the country for some reason.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kent: Biden and Bloomberg are two candidates who have concentrated their fire, such as it is, on trump
WaterGirl
@dnfree: Hey, we have both of those brands here. WTF?
burnspbesq
@Jeffro:
Right. The only lives being changed by opportunity zones are those of the investors, who are benefiting from obscenely favorable tax treatment.
Eric U.
the thing that bothers me about Trump destroying the Justice department is it’s going to be difficult for a Democrat to fix it. Same with State
Mnemosyne
@WaterGirl:
I mean, I wouldn’t want to do it as a regular thing, but I wouldn’t mind playing Marie Antoinette at Petit Trianon for a weekend. ?
divF
@dnfree:
To clarify a number of points above:
Dreyer’s (known as Edy’s in the Midwest and East) is owned by Nestle.
Breyers is owned by Unilever.
ETA: Also, Dreyer’s invented Rocky Road ice cream.
joel hanes
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
large turnout by the olds and meager turnout by the youngs
Quelle surprise.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
Must have missed those threads.
Can’t say I’m sorry.
janesays
@Mnemosyne: Yeah, but the downside with Bloomberg is that he spent years actively pushing an unambiguously racist policy as mayor that led to a lot of black people being incarcerated for bullshit reasons.
I don’t think black voters will ever be excited to vote for Bloomberg, but if they’re gravitating towards him as their second choice after Biden, it’s because they believe he can win, not because they appreciate what his leadership has done for the black community.
schrodingers_cat
@WaterGirl: Same here. We have both Edy’s and Breyer’s.
dnfree
@divF: thanks!
Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think it’s more basic than that. White straight male is a winning combination with the electorate. It’s not how they want it to be, but they can see Warren and Booker and Harris marginalized. They can see Trumps rallies. They can see Charlottesville.
If old white male is how Dems win, then fine, we’ll do old white male one more round to get Trump out. Representation will have to wait.
Don’t expect them to say this out loud, though.
guachi
Wow… Klobuchar at 20% in early returns.
Sanders – 27%
Buttigieg – 23%
Klobuchar – 20%
Warren – 10%
Biden – 8%
Do Warren and Biden continue with results like this? Does South Carolina save Biden? Who pulls out after New Hampshire in addition to Yang?
Will Sanders win the nomination as he’s bound to do well enough to get delegates everywhere? Is 27% a poor performance for Sanders going forward?
Do all of these wounded candidates mean good things for Bloomberg? Is this too many questions?
Omnes Omnibus
@Kent: Actually, a number of the Black commenters have done that here several times.
JanieM
@dnfree:
No. Dreyer’s, not Breyer’s, is the same brand as Edy’s.
Breyer’s chocolate is one of my favorites, even though the chocolate isn’t as intense as some other kinds
ETA: /ice cream pedant — nice to know I’m not the only one, LOL.
Amir Khalid
@Jeffro:
Who does Thiessen think he is kidding? Trump is about as likely to reach out to African-Americans as he is to reach out to Tralfamadorian-Americans. Also, Trump is never going to campaign on his record of governance.
delk
@dnfree: Dreyer’s is also Edy’s.
eta typo.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Yep, not funny.
Roger Moore
@dnfree:
They probably started as regional brands. When they got bought by a corporate behemoth, they kept the names for their brand value but switched to a single production plant to save money.
Jeffro
@burnspbesq: absolutely. Same with the taxpayer-financed stadium deals, etc etc.
But president*old-crank-at-the-bar thinks ‘vote for me – what the hell do you have to lose?!’ is a winning argument while doing all the blatantly racist things that ‘very fine people’ do. Let ’em.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: Just cleared up at #124.
Morzer
@WaterGirl: Guess the BernieBros must be feeling the heartBern.
Martin
@janesays: Yep. Black voters backed a lot of racist Dems for decades. They were all better than the more racist Republicans. Black voters are unfortunately very experienced at taking an extremely pragmatic view on politics.
WhatsMyNym
@Amir Khalid: Unilever owns Breyer’s and it is run as separate division.
@dnfree: That would be Dreyer’s.
ETA – late again.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@guachi:
I believe it’s been reported that Michael Bennet has been spending a lot of time, and putting all his hope in New Hampshire, whatever the latter might have looked like.
Mnemosyne
@janesays:
Yeah, it’s a purely practical move. They don’t love Bloomberg, but they think he’s electable and they’re pretty sure that they can hold his feet to the fire if they’re instrumental in getting him elected. Bloomberg is pretty racist, but he understands how one hand washing the other works and that he would owe Black voters big time if they help get him elected.
Eolirin
@guachi: It’s too early to determine much, other than that Buttigieg is going to have to be taken more seriously and Klobuchar might be able to get some traction.
WaterGirl
@Morzer: Yeah, I thought that, too, until I saw the early returns. I’m hoping it’s all out of whack because it’s early. I think I’m gonna go do something else for an hour and come back.
Marcopolo
@janesays: The cynic in me says the reason AA voters are gravitating towards Bloomberg is because he is running a shit ton of really well made ads (otherwise known as propaganda) , including one where he is standing next to & being praised by BO and most of them don’t know all that much about his actual record—maybe aside from his work on gun violence. But then I think that is the case with the vast vast majority of Dem voters when it comes to Bloomberg. I wonder if they were played that audio clip of him talking about stop & frisk & basically profiling young AA men as criminals if they would change their minds?
Jeffro
@Amir Khalid: Well in a way trumpov IS reaching out to black voters…albeit with nonsense and lies (and in some instances, actual cash giveaways). Anything to try and crack that solid D support. Anything to doubly spite the African American community by getting them to vote for the ‘very fine person’ in the WH right now.
And also, he kind of is running on his record…the one in his mind, that is, the one that the TCNJs and Faux News cough up all day long. Not the actual, factual record. The one he’s happy to lie about 24/7.
Thiessen’s delusional but I think a lot of wingnut welfare pundits are talking themselves into most any angle they can think of in order to rationalize away what they’re embracing this time around.
PJ
@guachi: Warren and Biden are in at least through NV and SC, and probably through Super Tuesday. NH is the whitest the contest will be, so in future Bernie and Pete will probably drop relative to the other candidates.
Frankensteinbeck
@guachi:
New Hampshire is the state that was supposed to be Sanders’ slam dunk, both where he has a huge home town advantage and the GOP was actively and determinedly ratfucking for him. That is an extremely poor performance, yes.
janesays
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Is the age turnout you heard outside of the norm? Olds always outnumber youngs at the polls. The margin by which they outnumber them gives better context.
If the olds in New Hampshire are dramatically outnumbering the youngs at the polls, that’s bad news for anyone who doesn’t want Sanders to be the nominee, because it’s looking like he’s probably going to win tonight. If he can win despite a poor turnout from his most reliable voting bloc, that puts him in a solid position to continue winning after New Hampshire.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Marcopolo:
I suspect that experiment will be run. Maybe Bloomaparte will decide he doesn’t like the proles talking back and will decide to put that machine behind Klobucha
ETA: Is twitter down? it’s not working on my Safari browser
chopper
@WaterGirl:
last year cacti started up with some made-up nickname for mayor pete based on the first four letters of his last name that the commentariat in general called pretty homophobic.
his response was basically to double down and act like a toddler.
Jeffro
@guachi: Wild that Klobuchar is doing that well, and Warren that poorly.
I think Super Tuesday is about 3 weeks away and it wouldn’t surprise me if we only had 2-3 candidates still running after that.
Josie
Watching these returns, I’m wondering if they will erase Klobuchar the way they did with Warren in Iowa.
Jeffro
@Frankensteinbeck: agreed.
would be nice if he, and his ‘bros’, could train their fire on the GOP instead of Dems, but oh well. Super Tuesday’s comin’…
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
There was a belief that if Warren faltered her voters would migrate to Sanders. Looks like that was incorrect. It seems her vote is going to Klobuchar.
Marcopolo
@janesays: I’m sure someone has mentioned it somewhere but at some point since 2016 the N.H. state lege passed a voting law that made it much more difficult for students to vote. They now have to show they are paying in state property taxes (like they have a vehicle registered in N.H.) in order to vote. Simply living in state while attending school is no longer enough.
Gotta believe that would reduce the youth vote.
Ken
Remind me, what are the nuances of “suspending” a campaign versus ending it? E.g., does it allow un-suspending it later, or have something to do with the unspent campaign funds?
(Not intended as a dig at Yang, I honestly don’t understand what it means.)
mad citizen
@Martin: Yup. Joy Reid was saying the same things on MSNBC as the cnn pundits. Blacks support Biden, but the moment he isn’t viable, it’s whoever gets trump out–Joy said it’s mercenary. And many apparently like Bloomberg’s resources.
oldgold
I think story should be that the middle lane is polling well over 50%.
Morzer
@WaterGirl: I’ll say this – if Sanders can’t do better than 27% in New Hampshire and Iowa, I don’t think much of his chances further down the line. Looks to me as if his support taps out in the high 20s – and that’s not getting him the nomination. Warren I think is done, which is a shame, but I don’t see how she comes back from two poor results. Biden – well, apparently managed to insult a voter incoherently and now needs a miracle in South Carolina. I suspect he’s close to done. I’ll be interested to see how Klobuchar does down the line and whether Bloomberg and she end up fighting for the same pool of voters as Wilmer’s Revolution wobbles along amid increasingly shrill cries of BroRage.
guachi
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, he’s currently at 0.1% so I think I should have clarified that I was more referring to candidates who had enough support to meaningfully go to some other candidate.
Martin
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I think it’s very Bernie and not-Bernie. That’s why I think Bernie is so focused on high popular vote totals – he’s not going to pick up other candidates voters.
Ken
Well, yes and no. He’s certainly not campaigning on his actual record. Instead he shares his rich internal fantasy life, which is just chock-full of the bestest accomplishments ever, with the rest of us.
(Edit: I see Jeffro beat me to it.)
mad citizen
Michael Bennett out. It’s a double elimination Survivor night!
JanieM
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
I have heard this over and over and am mystified by it. People seem to be able to keep only one thought in their heads at a time, and this one is that voters decide based on a single factor (in this case, economic policy). I’m a big fan of Warren, but for me Sanders is no better than tied for last among the rest. The usual disclaimer: I will vote for Sanders in the general if I have to.
ETA: This was unclear. It seems like pundits can keep only one thought in their heads at a time, so they think other people are limited in that way too.
janesays
Bennet out now too.
MomSense
Interrupt this thread to say that I just heard the amazing Joyce Yang perform Ravel’s Concerto for Piano and Orchestra in G Major. We all jumped out of our seats at the end – unbelievable. She’s brilliant. Delius’ and Stravinsky’ are after the intermission.
Martin
@Ken: I think suspending allows you to continue to fundraise, either to pay off debt or possibly to get a large enough surge to re-enter.
Cacti
The argument of Wilmer and the Wilmerites has been his alleged ability to bring in new voters that other people wouldn’t get. In the two contests most favorable to him, it hasn’t happened. Meanwhile, the center-left candidates are combining for about 51% of the vote.
It sharply illustrates the limits of Wilmer’s appeal. Plus, crazification factor.
janesays
@Frankensteinbeck: New Hampshire was always supposed to be a strong state for Sanders, but he’s never been positioned to win in a blowout, at least not according to the polls. Over the past two weeks, he’s been holding an average 8 point lead over Biden, and then in the last week, Buttigieg. Prior to that the polls were showing a neck-and-neck race between him and Biden, with him generally holding a slight edge of a few points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html
He’s currently up by 11%, and if that holds, he’ll have actually done better than the polls were predicting he would do.
hilts
Serious gut punch, Michael Bennett is dropping out of the race.
guachi
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Seems it’s not entirely ideological. Just look at Balloon Juice and the number of Warren/Klobuchar voters who were previously Harris/Warren.
WaterGirl
@Morzer: Ugh. I do not want Amy K. I don’t think Biden, Buttigieg, Warren or Amy K. will drop out until after Super Tuesday.
But I agree that a lot hinges on South Carolina.
I wish people would give Warren a second look. I think she has really grown into this moment.
Eolirin
@Morzer: Warren didn’t do that poorly in Iowa…
janesays
@hilts: Serious gut punch to… James Carville and literally not another person in America?
Morzer
@hilts: Oh no! What will we all do without the fiery rhetorical brilliance of… what was his name again?
Ohio Mom
Chris Johnson@57: So I gathered when I left this thread and went looking to see what happened.
I have to say that your summary is the most succinct and direct of the various versions I read. Right on point.
I hope one day a new administration recruits back all who resigned in protest. And maybe fires all who didn’t.
Nicole
@Amir Khalid: It’s entirely possible Breyer is owned by Nestlé. I don’t know; I really haven’t eaten Breyer’s in years. Honestly, although I say we keep ice cream out of the home to avoid temptation, it’s more my husband’s temptation. I don’t love ice cream the way I did when I was a kid. It’s fine; I’m not unhappy to have it, but not in my top choices. It’s my Biden of desserts, if you will.
Morzer
@Eolirin: Considering that she supposedly had a game-changing organization there, I think you could say she did relatively poorly.
janesays
@Cacti: Yes, but unless/until some of those middle lane candidates drop out and the vote migrates toward the survivor, Sanders has all of us by the short hairs.
Martin
@mad citizen: It’s what all of my black friends have been telling me. They can’t afford a candidate that can help them. They can only afford a candidate that won’t actively hurt them, because that’s the best that the American electorate will tolerate.
Obama may have opened the door to asking for more, but Trump shut it hard, at least for now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Lots of gloom about Warren around the ‘tubes already. I did hear about a week ago she was very low on cash, and Biden has always been low on cash
Frankensteinbeck
@janesays:
And that’s bad news, because again, it’s the state where he has an overwhelming advantage. He isn’t carrying anywhere slightly close to what he got last time, and there’s no sign that other people’s voters will ever flee to him.
Jeffro
Dropping rapidly now w/ Bennet and Yang. Would not surprise me if Bennet and the next 2-3 to get out endorse ‘moderate’ policies (and perhaps even specific candidates) for obvious reasons.
Morzer
@WaterGirl: I like Warren, think she’s a good Senator, would be a good president, but I think she got spooked by Wilmer’s M4A nonsense and made the mistake of moving a bit too far into the leftier than thou lane, which really is not her area, despite what the GOP screechers might claim. That cost her moderate votes while gaining her nothing from the BernieBros, which is why Klobuchar is now moving up in the lane that should have been Warren’s.
guachi
According to WaPo exit polls, Klobuchar got 25% of women and 16% of men and 35% of 65+ and only 6% of 18-29. So it seems the older white women who were Warren’s core support moved en masse (at least in more moderate New Hampshire) to Klobuchar. Klobuchar probably got 50% of women 65+.
Mnemosyne
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
I’m not surprised. Most of Warren’s support comes from Democrats, not leftists.
schrodingers_cat
@guachi: Her debate performance last week was pretty solid.
zhena gogolia
Wow, I keep losing my “happy place” twitter feeds. First Paul Bronks closed down, now Tom Joseph has his tweets protected, so I guess I’d have to join Twitter to see them. Nah gonna happen.
LC
@Josie: I don’t think so. They aren’t afraid of her in the same way. Also, the narrative is “Klobuchar turned it around” and this works with that. The narrative for a while has been “Warren peaked and then made a bunch of mistakes” and reporting a solid performance that doesn’t help that narrative serves no purpose since her performance wasn’t strong enough to overturn the apple cart on its own.
Sab
@Suzanne:That’s Michael Symon’s isn’t it? I am so jealous.
vj
@Morzer: “I’ll say this – if Sanders can’t do better than 27% in New Hampshire and Iowa, I don’t think much of his chances further down the line. ”
But if he’s outperforming all other candidates, what does that say about their chances?
For me the big question is: if Warren drops out after Super Tuesday where do her supporters go? The most likely seem to me to be Sanders or Klobuchar and that split could be decisive. Smartest thing for either of those campaigns: snatch up Warren’s endorsement with a promise of VP and/or Treasury Sec.
schrodingers_cat
Warren is 4th in the early results. I thought she would win NH or come second.
zhena gogolia
@Morzer:
yer a lyin dog-faced pony soldier
Butter Emails
@Morzer:
Warren’s decline had little to do with her M4A position. When it looked like she might take a commanding lead in the race, she got torn down by the press and they’ve made sure that she stays that way.
Marcopolo
So Warren just took to the stage at her gathering & praised Klobuchar for her showing tonight saying Amy is proving that women are competitive.
A classy move!
Morzer
@zhena gogolia: Only on my better days.
janesays
@Ken: “Suspension” is about campaign financing. Candidates who have suspended their campaigns are pretty much always effectively out of the race, but they may have outstanding debts they need to resolve before they officially end the campaign.
Morzer
@Butter Emails: I disagree on that. Warren did make a strategic mistake and has been paying for it ever since. It’s a shame because her campaign began impressively.
Emerald
@Frankensteinbeck: Agree. He has not had the blowout he wanted. It’s way too close for him.
However, if the moderates keep splitting their votes and if Biden doesn’t recover, I’m starting to think that Bloomberg might wind up as the nominee, because Wilmer has to be stopped.
Eolirin
@Morzer: She outperformed her polling by a decent amount. No question she has an uphill battle, her polling isn’t that great. But she did what she needed to in Iowa.
Morzer
@Marcopolo: Liz Warren is a class act, that’s for sure.
Mnemosyne
@zhena gogolia:
In Otter News got put in Twitter jail and I am NOT HAPPY. ?
Kent
See, there it is. Works for me. I actually wish that EVERY candidate would start every single answer with an attack on Trump before moving on to whatever policy issue was at hand. What is the TRUMP horror that you are contrasting your policy against.
The Dangerman
@Cacti:
Tucker Carlson is going to need to rehydrate after the tongue bath he’s been giving BS. I’m sure he and FOX have the Dem’s best interests at heart and wouldn’t destroy BS in the General.
Don’t forget to hydrate!
Morzer
@Eolirin: I think if Buttigieg hadn’t emerged from nowhere, she might have taken second place and that would have given her a fighting chance, but I don’t think 3rd place is good enough. If the NH results are as bad as they seem for her and she’s low on cash, it’s hard to see where she finds a big enough win to be viable for the future.
janesays
Looking like if Sanders wins, it might be a pretty narrow victory – his lead is down to 4%. Good. Anything to prevent a narrative about inevitability creeping into the pundit conversation is a good thing.
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: I like Giant Military Cats.
FlyingToaster
@Mnemosyne: Most of my “relief” twitter accounts (Fluff Society, In Otter News, 41 Strange) have gotten killt in the past few month. Totally sux.
Kent
Doesn’t surprise me. I don’t think most voters (other than Bernie bots) are really voting on ideology. They are looking for competence and who can take on Trump. If you liked Warren’s general demeanor and competence your logical alternative is Klobuchar. Especially if you are an educated voter who knows most of the legislative proposals are just pissing in the wind.
Ohio Mom
Guachi@131: Those early returns are pretty much the mirror image of my preferences. Just switch Biden and Warren, turned the list around so the first is last, the next to last is second, etc., and voila!
Not enjoying seeing this. Oh well, it’s still early.
Good news on Yang leaving though. The world does not need his crazy ideas getting any circulation.
SiubhanDuinne
@Morzer: Her speech is terrific. Class act indeed.
Kent
Sanders went from 60% in 2016 to what…..28% at the moment? In his own backyard? That’s a crash and burn of more than 50%.
That’s the story here. New Hampshire Democrats are fleeing him in mass.
guachi
@Kent: I love Warren but I think we have seen Warren’s relative political inexperience compared to, say, Klobuchar or Sanders.
Cacti
I’m thinking already that Bloomberg will be the nominee, with Klobuchar as Veep.
Morzer
@janesays: The second season of “Our” Revolution doesn’t seem to be living up to the hype of the first.
Marcopolo
So Yang actually has a few supporters. Do we think they go to Bernie or do they just stop participating in the Dem primary process? Not sure I can envision any of them moving to anyone else.
What do y’all think?
And do we see Tulsi & Deval drop out in the next day or so?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
4 years ago, Sanders won his neighboring state by 23%. Winning tonight by a low single digit would be a setback. Certainly, winning by 4 points is no “Revolution!™“
janesays
@Kent: In fairness, it’s an apples and oranges comparison. 2016 was a two person race. 2020 is a 5.B(loomberg) person race. A win of 40% would have been a ginormous victory for him, even though it would still only be a plurality and a sizable drop from 2016.
We’re not going to see any candidate win a majority of any state until at least Super Tuesday, and maybe not even then.
ETA: Vermont votes on Super Tuesday. It would be quite surprising if he doesn’t cross the 50% threshold there (same goes for Klobuchar in Minnesota and Warren in Massachusetts that day).
TS (the original)
@Ohio Mom:
I fear trump will do – what republicans have always done – turn all the political appointees that they can into permanent position people – he has 2 months to do it. I think Bush Jnr did this before he left.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl: If you literally have an equal preference for two candidates, voting randomly is a rational strategy.
Morzer
@guachi: I like Warren and I think she’s a genuinely smart, brave Senator with good, workable ideas – but she’s never been the world’s best campaigner. It’s a shame she doesn’t have some of the Obama stardust, because that would make her a truly formidable candidate.
SiubhanDuinne
@guachi:
That number….
chris
@Frankensteinbeck: Something to consider, Dave Weigel suggested that some of Sanders’ 2016 vote was not for him but rather an anti-Hillary vote.
glory b
@Martin: I don’t like him. Someone described him as a squirrel on meth, it’s a good comparison.
I know he’s the numbers guy, but he talks as if NH is the end game, nwver acknowledging that black voters are not given a voice in this process.
The pundits say that black voters are very pragmatic, and if the white folks in Iowa and NH decide Bernie is it, we’ll just fall in line.
And maybe we will, but it’s disappointing, that after two of the smallest , whitest states, the whole thing’s over, to hear them tell it.
Mike J
So who did Bernie supporters move to?
Morzer
@Marcopolo: I imagine Tulsi will stay in to the bitter end in order to screw with the Democrats as much as possible.
tomtofa
On the rare occasions I get ice cream, I usually go for niche brands like Red Top, Talenti (ok a gelato, but close enough), etc. Sometimes I want to explore how the mainstream brands are doing, and there they are: Breyers, Dreyers. I can never remember which one is supposed to be good, so I end up getting HD or B&J.
On the primaries: it will be a more hollow field if Warren drops out. She’s not consistently been my favorite, but she’s been the spark for the party this whole season, and there will be a bit of an “oh well, guess I’ll go with . . .” vibe to me if she’s gone.
joel hanes
@MomSense:
Thanks.
There’s no youtube of Joyce Yang doing the Ravel (just a “preview” of her discussing the piece), but right now I’m watching her do Beethoven’s Sonata No 18 in E flat Major, Op 31, No 3, “The Hunt”, and I’ll be searching out more of her.
Martin
@Cacti: Agreed on Bloomberg. Unsure where he’ll go for VP. Could be anywhere, TBH. If he’s smart, he’ll say his first choice is Michelle Obama.
catclub
The bloomberg headline: Bernie Sanders Seeks Defining Win, Yet Race Remains Fluid
Well yes. he won NH by 20% in 2016 and still did not win the nom. he will take many fewer votes this evening.
janesays
@glory b: Kornacki speaks as if every state he’s talking about is the end game. Squirrel on meth is an apt comparison. I don’t think it has anything to do with New Hampshire specifically so much as the fact that he’s just an innately jumpy guy. He’ll be like this for Nevada and South Carolina, as well.
joel hanes
@Morzer:
You and I see Sematpr Professor Warren’s trajectory the same way.
Bill Arnold
@janesays:
With some Republican votes, though. (Probably said elsewhere in thread.)
FWIW, SC also has a Operation Chaos 2020: https://operationchaos2020.com/#section-1
Martin
@glory b:
He’s just doing his job, TBH. In SC, SC will be the end game. The media always treats the immediate shiny penny as the most important thing ever.
chris
Reading the thread and watching MSNBC and, dear gods! The good news is that Breyer’s ice cream is available in Canada. A little bright spot when you’re running for the border one step ahead of Barr’s thought police.
Baud
@janesays: It’s not a 1 to 1 comparison, but the numbers indicate that Bernie doesn’t have the juice for a “revolution.” In other words, people are going to need to work together to defeat Trump.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: She’s not quitting, right? Just acknowledging that she didn’t have a great night?
Are there actually enough returns in that we really know how it’s going to come out tonight?
janesays
@Mike J: Probably a mix of mostly Warren and Buttigieg (not for ideological reasons on the latter, but rather because he’s seen as an “outsider”). Doubtful many of them switched to Biden.
Morzer
@Martin: Michelle Obama has very consistently stated a complete lack of interest in running for office. Bloomberg’s not going to get himself shot down in flames publicly by making an offer that’s going to be politely, but immediately, refused.
catclub
Not necessarily fleeing, but having more options than Sanders and Clinton, this year. en masse
Also, I think Trump wants to motivate the ratfucker section of voters in the democratic primaries. That is very hard to do effectively.
Martin
@Morzer: I think the bigger problem is the realization that if she wins the nom, it’ll be 10 months of nonstop ‘Pocahontas’ with the media doing fuckall to push against it.
Mike J
@chris: Does Canada have Steve’s?
susanna
@Martin: My favorite is Honeymoon, out of Mill Valley, ca, where I don’t live.
Omnes Omnibus
Despite people calling the race for Bloomberg (who has yet to get a single delegate or participate in a single contest), I would be very surprised if any of the top six quit before Super Tuesday.
janesays
@Morzer: She’s genuinely a non-factor, though. She’s not going to qualify for anymore debates, and outside of Fox News, she’s getting close to zero attention from the cable news punditry. I imagine a decent number of sane people who don’t follow this stuff as zealously as we do probably aren’t even aware she’s still a candidate (or that she ever was).
Marcopolo
@Morzer: But but but that would screw up her third party run…
More seriously, she had put all of her chips in NH. In a rational world (yeah, apparently not this one), this would be the end of the run for her.
Eljai
@glory b: I’m not a fan of Kornacki. And I’m tired of pundits trying to drive a narrative after two small contests. A Democratic candidate needs 1991 delegates. NH and Iowa have about 65 combined. Maybe we could wait til a few more voters weigh in is all I’m sayin’.
different-church-lady
[Gloom]
E.O.M.
geg6
@dnfree:
It’s possible, I suppose, that both brands are from the same company, but both Breyer’s and Edy’s are sold here in Western PA and they taste nothing alike. No way are they the same formula.
Ohio Mom
On ice cream: the field has changed dramatically in recent years. Just about everywhere there is at least one place that makes small batch artisan ice cream in fabulous flavors.
Why would you eat anything else? Save the Edy’s And Breyer’s for kid birthday parties.
Just Chuck
@WaterGirl: JFC, Cacti is still at it with the “Butt Egg” stuff? My pie filter got reset, so congrats Cacti, you’re back in it.
joel hanes
@tomtofa:
Breyers, Dreyers. I can never remember which one is supposed to be good
It’s pretty easy to discern, right there in the grocery store, if you’ve forgotten. Read the label.
The ingredients for Breyer’s vanilla are: milk, cream, sugar, tara gum, vanilla.
The ingredients for Dreyer’s vanilla are: skim milk, cream, sugar, whey, tapioca starch, pectin, natural flavors (with vanilla extract), guar gum
After looking it up, I’m a bit disappointed, because Breyer’s didn’t used to have the tara gum.
zhena gogolia
@Mnemosyne:
What happened?
Morzer
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1227406905535893504
Just Chuck
@zzyzx: Cacti’s been doing the juvenile nicknames for Buttigieg for so long that we should assume that is his intent.
PJ
@chris: Don’t know about 2016, but in 2020, Weigel’s Twitter feed is 100% pro-Bernie, and dunking on everyone else.
This is the first year I’ve “read” Twitter, and I’m kind of shocked at the number of journalists who are unabashedly pro-Bernie. I ask myself, “do they have any idea how our government works?”, and “have they read any history books?”, and “have they read any books, period?” And then I read what they write, and it’s pretty clear that the answer to all three questions is “no.”
guachi
@WaterGirl: There are enough returns to know that Warren’s delegate totally will be 0 or 1. That’s pretty bad as she’s well below the 15% threshold almost everywhere.
Klobuchar is about 2x Warren’s total and she’s on pace for 7 delegates, Buttigieg with 8, and Sanders with 9. Viability threshold is really coming into play in NH.
zhena gogolia
@Mnemosyne:
Oh, I thought you meant YOU got put in twitter jail.
schrodingers_cat
@different-church-lady: EOM?
janesays
@Omnes Omnibus: I suspect if Biden takes an indisputable loss in South Carolina (5 points or more behind the winner), he’ll probably call it quits. I think he and the people around him know that South Carolina is the last hope for his campaign, and if he can’t win there, he probably can’t win anywhere.
To put it another way – a 5 point loss for Biden in South Carolina would be as catastrophic for him as a 5 point loss in New Hampshire would be for Bernie Sanders.
Buttigieg, Sanders, and Bloomberg aren’t going anywhere before March 3rd. Klobuchar and Warren all depends on how they do in the next two states. If neither one of them can get a second place finish in any of the first four states, it’s hard to see how they can continue their campaigns. Although the fact that both of their home states are in the mix on Super Tuesday might keep them in it at least until then, even if it seems obvious that they’re finished after South Carolina.
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: Just get some Babcock Hall ice cream and be done with it.
Morzer
@Martin: This is sadly true.
catclub
@Morzer: Tulsi’s campaign manager said that NH will show that her poll numbers are lower than her performance. I … doubt it.
Matt McIrvin
@Omnes Omnibus: I find it surreal that people are already calling Bloomberg the nominee apparent just because he hasn’t even been on the ballot yet. How was Biden doing in the polls before any votes had happened?
Baud
@PJ:
White journalists like Bernie because he’s outside of the norm and an independent.
Martin
@joel hanes: I just want to go on the record to say that ice cream needs to have eggs in it. If it doesn’t, it’s ice milk.
Fight me.
catclub
@guachi: I must say I am surprised, given that MA is next door.
Miss Bianca
@LAO: The 4-alarm fire brought you back to us. That’s the only good thing about the verschlugginer mess.
But can you explain to this lay(wo)man just how badly we’re fucked here? Or, rather, how badly the justice system is fucked? The US attorneys recommend a particular sentence, the DOJ just says, “nah”…and then what? Can the DOJ just arbitrarily overturn anyone’s sentencing now?
Baud
I hate to say it, but I think Warren will have a tougher time coming back than Biden will.
catclub
@Matt McIrvin: Trump and Bloomberg could be proving that retail politics is unnecessary to win the nom. Just a giant TV presence is all that is necessary. of course Steyer has a huge TV presence and is nowhere.
We shall see.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat:
I looked it up — End of Message.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl: I hope she’s not quitting, because I just sent her a little more money :-)
PJ
@Baud: I think they’re also attracted to this idea that he’s “consistent” – that he doesn’t change his opinions or his way of doing things over time, which, to me, is a sign of someone who doesn’t want to or can’t learn, but for others is a kind of virtue.
guachi
@catclub: Lots of moderate/conservative white Democrats voting in NH and if Klobuchar is a perceived moderate, that’s where the votes will go.
39% of voters were self-described moderate/conservative. Klobuchar 38%, Buttigieg 35%, Warren 3%. Heck, even Sanders got 16% of moderate/conservative NH voters.
CliosFanBoy
@Mnemosyne: the last time I tried that I squeezed the poor chicken too hard trying to get a second egg. it did not end well.
Marcopolo
@WaterGirl: Earlier today Warren’s campaign put out a memo laying out what they see as her path forward. From the reporting it sounds as if she will be in it through at least NV & maybe Super Tuesday but when you look at the media ghosting her campaign got out of IA (over performed & finished in 3rd & Klobuchar got all the media juice (Mayor Pete didn’t get) coming in 5th there), it is hard to see her rebounding. Once the media have come up with a narrative they are generally pretty lazy & stick to it cause it is easy to do.
Also, I’ve said it before & I will say it till I am blue in the face but the average voter is a low info voter & they more likely make up their minds over perceived (versus real) things like electability that our media (and advertising) sway them on. And I am afraid we live in their world, not the reverse.
I’m guessing (though I’d love to be wrong about W) that both Biden & Warren are now gonna be slotted into the no longer able to win narrative. Honestly, and it sickens me a little to write this, I think a lot of the talking head media folks (not the hard working campaign reporters) would rather talk about Bloomberg, who has undergone zero vetting & had virtually no interactions with the public, than either Joe Biden or EW.
WaterGirl
I am feeling
kind oftotally sick at heart at the results. I’ve got a dollar for anyone who can help me feel a little more positive about this.different-church-lady
@Baud:
Marcopolo
@catclub: Steyer is currently polling 2nd in SC where he has been running most of his ads.
catclub
@Miss Bianca: I think Judge Amy Berman Jackson can weigh in also.
One way would be to apply the previously recommended long sentences. Stone has given her every reason to do so.
They are only recommendations in any case. The Judge has options.
Baud
@PJ: That’s giving him and them too much credit IMHO.
charon
@WaterGirl:
A lot of Super Tuesday vote is vote-by-mail, there might be some early voting also. So votes cast before South Carolina even happens.
I think people are expecting more effect from South Carolina than it will deliver.
Ohio Mom
Schrodingerscat@262: I think E.O.M. means “end of message.”
Different Church Lady has nothing but gloom. I’m fighting against it but maybe she’s just more honest than me.
joel hanes
@Martin:
Not interested in fighting.
I did used to like real egg nog, back before we worried about salmonella.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Why do you think it will be harder for Warren than Biden? I am thinking it’s the opposite.
Miss Bianca
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
Gee, YA THINK? (bitterly)
My state went from all-caucus to Presidential primary and caucus for everything else, *and* open primaries. I can’t even with the WTF-ery of all that.
janesays
@Baud: Yes and no. She needs to get at least one solid finish in second place or better before Super Tuesday, or it’s hard to see how she has any path to the nomination.
Biden has to win South Carolina. I suppose if he comes in a very close second place, he can try to claim the comeback kid moniker, but it’s hard to imagine how he justified continuing his campaign if he can’t win in the one state where everybody said he had a massive advantage before the primaries began.
catclub
@Marcopolo: I have not been paying sufficient attention!
Morzer
@Marcopolo: But does he have Steying power?
Baud
@WaterGirl: We can commiserate together, but there really isn’t any good news for Warren fans.
guachi
The WaPo exit poll is really an eye opener on Sanders/Klobuchar. They are mirror images in the following demographics:
Gender
Age
Education
When Decided on Vote
Ideology
Health Insurance
Income
Agree on Issues/Can Beat Trump
That’s almost every demographic breakdown WaPo asked questions about.
zhena gogolia
This thread is hilarious.
The Dangerman
@susanna:
…swoon … Honeymoon is good. I don’t see it that often is all but I’m kinda in the sticks. Plus, I’m trying to lose a few pounds so I give the Ice Cream aisle a wide berth (and the Girl Scout Cookie sales a wider berth).
I think I saw a Doc Bernsteins‘ in Kettleman City, which is new to me (the store, not Kettleman). Hope there is enough I5 traffic to support it.
Has anyone else tried Vampire Penguin? Love it. Did I mention trying to lose a few pounds?
Baud
@WaterGirl: I don’t see where she gets votes from. I think Biden at least has a shot of getting back the high numbers he had with Latinos and AAs in Nevada and SC. I don’t think Warren is polling well in either state.
PJ
@WaterGirl: Listen to Elizabeth’s speech tonight, if you haven’t already. I felt like she was on the verge of tears at the beginning (as was I, almost), because the NH results are disheartening, not just for her but what it says about Democratic voters. But as she kept speaking, the more fired up she became. She is prepared to take the fight to Trump and win this thing. I wish I could get people just to listen to her (and not the media – the godawful Olivia Nuzzi had an article today about how Biden and Warren’s campaign’s should be taken out back and shot, for how poorly they are doing, all based on the anonymous statements of staffers from rival campaigns.)
Morzer
@janesays: I think that anything but a solid win in SC is the end for Biden – and even if he gets that win I am not sure he’s going to fare particularly well down the line. His numbers are dropping, he’s low on cash and he hasn’t been wooing the voters with anything approaching charisma.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
Sorry, we’re having a Saturday Night Massacre at the DOJ (on Tuesday) and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. I have no cheery words for anyone.
WhatsMyNym
@charon: Even Washington gets their ballots out on Feb 21st.
different-church-lady
Sanders does better than Warren in the neighboring state fight because New England is divided into North and South, with NH and VT being sister states. New Hampshirites see their southern neighbors as Masshole invaders.
TriassicSands
@Frankensteinbeck:
It’s not great, but winning may be more important than percentage unless it gets Iowa close. While he’s down from some 61% in 2016, being the winner will keep him going. However, his percentage does hint that he may have an upper limit of support — he’s got his base but very few of the voters who lose other preferred candidates are likely to go to Sanders.
Warren is my preferred candidate, but I think she’s run a lousy campaign. She allowed herself to be tied to Bernie as ultra-left. She waited far too long to talk realistically about getting legislation passed and doing things like getting rid of private insurance.
Spanky
While the NH results and DOJ shitfest are occupying most of my worryspace, it’s good to remember there are other, better things going on:
At least there’s something.
Baud
And progressive voters in particular.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Whatever the emoji for tears looks like, insert it here.
sdhays
@Marcopolo: JFC, if Steyer comes in second in South Carolina, then they don’t deserve to be in the first three any more than Iowa or New Hampshire. They might as well be saying that a ham sandwich would make a fine President (yes, I know it would still be a step up from the current President).
zhena gogolia
I cannot follow the primaries. Just pick somebody (a Democrat, that is) and beat Trump. I don’t care who it is.
janesays
Wow… the entire backdrop audience behind Biden is African-American, save one woman. Pretty clearly telegraphing the message to black voters in South Carolina, “I need you to show up for me in force in 18 days, or this is all over.”
Baud
@WaterGirl: ?
schrodingers_cat
I thought I was the outlier when I would see BJ comment section and Front Pagers fawning day in and day out at Elizabeth Warren. Guess I was not the only one who was not sold. She has policy chops but I was never convinced of her political chops.
Procopius
@Eric U.: That’s what we pay them the big bucks for /sarc
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Baud: They also loved how he would trash Clinton, which is media catnip.
Baud
@Spanky: Elections have consequences. Imagine what a golden age we would be in if the Dems controlled the federal government for more than 2 non-consecutive two-year terms since 1980.
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Absolutely. He demonstrated his bona fides and earned their loyalty with his behavior.
ETA: At least so long as he’s not the nominee.
Marcopolo
@Baud: As you folks know, I’m a Warren person & I will be bummed if/when she pulls out but we will wind up with a nominee. If Warren is still in it when my state votes I will vote for her, if she isn’t & AK is in the race I will vote for her. Beyond that, I haven’t given too much thought other than please for god’s sake don’t make me have to choose between Bernie Sanders & Mike Bloomberg. And even then, we will still have a D nominee & we will still need to kick Trump’s bloated orange ass out of the White House in November.
Eyes on the prize. Whatever happens with Warren, I am pretty sure she will be just fine so we should find a way to do that as well. There was a clip of a reporter asking if she would be okay if she didn’t win but the winner adopted some/many of her plans. Her response was, to paraphrase, “Hell yeah, I will be leading the parade, it isn’t about me.”
Bill Arnold
@FlyingToaster:
Still some good microfiction accounts on twitter. I’m fond of
https://twitter.com/MicroSFF (micro sf stories, often a little obvious but sweet.)
and
https://twitter.com/ctrlcreep (Magical Realism?! Often very very good. )
And some others.
WaterGirl
@PJ: I started watching Friday’s debate last night, and she won me over. For the first time in weeks I thought, “there is someone I can be excited about in there race.”
Baud
@Marcopolo:
So say we all.
Martin
Wait until Super Tuesday. That’s really going to rile up some supporters.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: The Saturday Night Massacre is actually the only positive thing I can see about today. Finally people of principle actually resigning instead of resigning themselves to Trump’s world.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Most Warren fans like the policy chops coupled with the absence of Wilmerian attributes.
glory b
@Suzanne: Hey, did you see my comment about moving to Pittsburgh a few days ago?
glory b
WaterGirl
@sdhays: I really liked Steyer in the Friday debate. I was really shocked.
sdhays
@Baud: Yes. So say we all.
tomtofa
@joel hanes: OK, so B before D. Thanks. I was the digital librarian at a pretty good university, but I still have brain fails at the occasional simple things. Like reading ice cream ingredients, in this case.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: As I said above, it is a little early to be dancing on graves.
Marcopolo
@Spanky: Yeah, the one area they fell short on was ending VA’s status as a Right to Work state. I live in MO, which trust me is a pretty red place, and we passed a ballot issue in 2018 that repealed Right to Work with over 60% of the vote. Maybe they’ll get it done next session. Seems like a no brainer for locking in the union leaning vote for years and years.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Baud: I honestly think both of their campaigns are in big trouble.
I’ve given (multiple) contributions to Harris, Warren, and Biden. I am continually learning that my tastes significantly diverge from large segments of my fellow US’ers.
Buttigieg’s results in both Iowa and N.H. are impressive, and maybe a little underrated by the jackals here.
Barbara
@Marcopolo: “It isn’t about me” is why I love her and why she probably won’t win.
guachi
@Martin: It’s going to be wild with candidates all over the place in the various states.
It’d be exciting if I didn’t have to live with the results.
Bnad
@Morzer: One silver lining, should Bernie be nominated, is that he’s immune to a Tulsi third party spoiler.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: You forgot to say that it’s tacky, as well.
Dammit, Omnes!
Baud
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I agree. I think Pete overperformed. Maybe helped by Biden’s failings so far. I’m really curious to see how a more diverse primary electorate reacts to all this.
different-church-lady
@WaterGirl: But negative in the sense that deplorables will fill the void.
Barbara
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: He has to prove himself with non-white voters. There is no point in glossing over that.
PJ
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: Old white people like Buttigieg. And they vote.
sdhays
@WaterGirl: I guess he’s better than Bloomberg. As a billionaire, I don’t have high expectations. But he’s not going to be the nominee regardless of how well he does in South Carolina (at least as I see it), so if he’s second, a lot of people will have lit their vote on fire and flushed it down the toilet.
BBA
@Bnad: And vulnerable to a Bloomberg third party spoiler.
tomtofa
@Omnes Omnibus: Looks pretty local. Could you send me some? I’m in California; their online shopping seems to include only cheeses.
WaterGirl
@different-church-lady: This is true.
different-church-lady
@Bnad: He’ll probably pick her for veep.
[glooooooom….]
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: I am surprised, I thought she would beat BS or be a close second in NH. Also I was only speaking about the NH primary not the entire nomination process. Super Tuesday is when we will have more clarity.
sdhays
@Bnad: No one is immune.
Miss Bianca
@JanieM:
Me, too. As in, Warren is at the top of my list, Sanders at the bottom. Are we that uncommon as a Dem demographic?
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: No polling indicated that she would do that well.
zhena gogolia
@Marcopolo:
I’m not worried about her doing the right thing.
Miss Bianca
@MomSense: I am envious, sounds amazing. Where did you hear the concert?
Baud
@Miss Bianca: Apparently so. The party is moving on.
Mnemosyne
@Eljai:
Come sit by me. There are FIFTY-TWO (52) more primaries and caucuses to go before we’re done. Just because Obama won it by winning IA and NH doesn’t mean that’s the way it always gets done.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@PJ: I like that he’s always run for, and held office as a Democrat. And is the least wealthy candidate in the race.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
The Catch-22 is that they get replaced by more cult members.
Barbara
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes I agree but I also have a hard time seeing where EW goes from here.
Baud
@Mnemosyne: Obama lost NH.
WaterGirl
@glory b: I can’t figure out how you got a duplicate comment to post. (before you changed to the empty block quote)
WordPress should have yelled at you about the duplicate and refused to post it.
Tom Q
I think some pundits are a bit intimidated by the bro crowd, because they’re acting as if Sanders winning by the miniscule margin to which he’s currently clinging is some sort of triumph. Sanders clobbered Hillary here 4 years ago and shares a border with a decent percentage of residents; winning by (currently) 3% would seem to me a huge step-down. Especially since this is his last chance to play on all-white turf.
I recognize, he’ll still hold onto his dogged supporters, and can finish first some places as long as the rest of the field sticks around dividing the spoils. That can work as a strategy in the GOP winner-take-all primaries — both Romney and Trump wrapped up their nominations early by plurality-winning in split fields. But the Democrats’ proportional delegate allotment prevents that.
I’m not saying I know who’s going to finish ahead — or, at this point, who I even want to. But I think Sanders’ odds are being highly overstated. This isn’t the kind of night he needed.
jonas
You think that’s bad — my 70’s health nut mom used to give us carob bars in lieu of chocolate bunnies in our Easter baskets. Still haven’t gotten over that…
WaterGirl
@Baud: Yes we can!
Omnes Omnibus
@tomtofa: “Blessed are the cheesemakers” and all that, but I am neither a manufacturer nor a purveyor of dairy products.
LC
@Barbara: Sadly, I agree with both points.
Given that this is an electorate that just wants to beat Trump, there is a ruthless political logic in going very negative on you opponents and counting on their supporters showing up anyway because Trump has to go.
It’s just not in her nature to do that. She crushed Delaney with stuff about not going in if you didn’t want to do something good, but even that was more of a “try harder” than “you suck and must be destroyed”.
To me, she comes across as a fighter because she will just keep getting up, but a lot of people only seem to view people who *attack* as fighters.
On one level, I do think that’s her “not having the political chops” but it is more a sign of how we select for bad things in campaigns.
chris
@Mike J: Steve’s? I don’t know but I live in the back end of nowhere so maybe in the cities.
The Dangerman
I think Warren would fit really well in the VP slot; she kicks Trump in the teeth nicely and you know Trump is aching to drop the Pocahontas shit at the risk of ignoring the Top of the Ticket to do it. Temptations, like Girl Scout Cookies (the Cookies, Donald, the COOKIES, not the Scouts, you pervert).
Klobuchar/Warren? I dunno. An all woman tag team on Trump would be interesting. Without going to an Anagram thingy, I think I see a “Bra” and a “Whack” in there. Now, that would be fitting for Donald, I think.
Miss Bianca
@Morzer:
LMAO, and he’s my Senator! For shame, Morzer! Bennet, (not Bennett, dammit!) SAY HIS NAME!!!
PJ
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: So the other Democrats (Warren, Klobuchar, Biden) don’t do it for you?
WaterGirl
@jonas: Some things are unforgivable.
jk
Down goes Biden, down goes Biden!! Paging Ferdie Pacheco and Angelo Dundee.
For months, an army of clueless, slobbering, Biden worshipping pundits kept insisting that he was the safe choice and the only Democrat who could beat Trump. Apparently, a plurality of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t receive this message.
Somewhere men and women are laughing, somewhere children shout;
but there’s no joy in Punditville —Uncle Joe’s unbeatable campaign juggernaut has simply CRAPPED OUT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKdcjJoXeEY
For the good of the nation, Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg need to cut a deal in which 2 of them drop out, immediately endorse the third candidate and hopefully that person will gain enough support to stop Sanders dead in his tracks.
# Any Democrat except Bernie or gaffe gushering Uncle Joe
janesays
@BBA: That’s not a silver lining, unless you actually want to see Roe v Wade overturned.
Any third party run by ANY candidate ostensibly trying to win over anti-Trump voters is effectively the best campaign gift anyone could ever give to Donald Trump.
The worst possible scenario this November is that Trump gets re-elected. No matter who the Democratic nominee winds up being, that person, without question, would be light years better than another four years of Donald Trump. The shittiest possible person who could win the Democratic nomination would still be better than Trump, unless you’re perfectly fine with a 6-3 or 7-2 wingnut majority on the Supreme Court for the next 20+ years.
Marcopolo
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: About to head off for the evening but as someone who has never supported a candidate in the D primary who went on to win the nomination (thinking back 88 was Jackson, 92 Brown, 04 Dean, 08 Edwards-yeah that was dumb what was I thinking, 16 stayed on sidelines, 20 Warren) I’m not going much farther than serious disappointed this go around.
As I said above, at the end of all of this we need to win in Nov.
patroclus
Just turned it on to see Klobuchar’s speech – I’m thrilled that she’s in the top tier now!
LC
@Bnad: No, he isn’t. If he wins, by definition he will have sold out. Tulsi could absolutely run the third party play with lots of on-line support from the “true faithful”. (It may not work as well as it would with others, but he isn’t immune.)
janesays
@jk: No.
Any Democrat (even if they only call themselves that once every four years), period. We could choose a huge steaming pile of my dog’s shit to be the Democratic nominee, and I would still crawl over broken glass to vote for the steaming pile, because there is no worse possible outcome than Trump getting re-elected.
PJ
It seems like almost all political journalists spend way too much time on Twitter, and take the opinions expressed there as representative of the country, which they ain’t. It’s more of a cross between 4chan and the old Gawker.
catclub
@zhena gogolia: Only if you think people standing up for the DOJ process is a saturday night massacre. I think it is very heartening.
Emma from FL
@Marcopolo: So you think AAs are political ignoramuses?
Martin
@jonas: Oh, same here. And some breakfast cereal that was basically unsalted popcorn in milk. At one point I asked why we were eating this stuff and she said we weren’t as poor anymore and could eat better food. I asked her if we could be poor again.
She still reminds me of that.
Anne Laurie
Ugh, it was my dad who used to go on health kicks and bring those home.
From my recent ‘energy bar’ experiments, however, I can assure you that the carob makers have improved their product enormously over the last 40 years!
Tom Q
@jk: The thing that galls me is, I always thought this was about how Biden would go when he came into contact with actual voters. But he held onto those sizzling polling leads long enough that all the candidates I truly liked are gone from the race.
I think the DNC’s “polling & fundraising” metrics for the debates did the party a disservice. Two old guys with high name recognition kept better candidates from rising in the polls, and now we’re locked in with (my view) a lesser field.
Martin
@jk: You realize you’re going to get Bloomberg instead of Biden, right?
WaterGirl
@jk: Your first comment right out of the gate was anti-Biden, so I’m not surprised.
But I do find your gloating to be unbecoming.
Marcopolo
@Mnemosyne: Don’t mean to rain on your parade but HRC eked out a win (39%-36.5%) over BHO in NH in 2008. I still remember the coverage of her showing her emotions after the win–which was an all too big part of the media coverage at the time.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I have to admit that I am not following the polls that closely.
Martin
@Anne Laurie: Our sweet tooths have gotten a lot less sensitive as well…
Anne Laurie
New post up top, if anyone can bear to tear themselves away.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@PJ: As I commented earlier, I’ve given repeatedly to two of those candidates.
I didn’t say anything negative about anyone. I just said nice things about Pete.
Eljai
@Baud: That’s right. Obama was good at strategy. And Hillary learned from that. The press was making a huge deal of Sander’s upset Michigan win in 2016. But it only got him 4 delegates, while Hillary was racking up 30 + delegates at around the same time.
different-church-lady
@Martin:
I mean… fuck…
Tazj
@Baud: I agree. It’s not like I’ve never voted for people I didn’t particularly love but when we have and had much better candidates, please no. I don’t want to see Michael Moore on tv every night, or a billionaire and his cronies. It would be an improvement over Trump but I don’t want to think about it yet.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@jk: [Deleted for civility]
janesays
I don’t think Tulsi Gabbard is going to be a factor in November, no matter who the Democratic nominee is. A lot of the Jill Stein voters in 2016 were people who foolishly assumed Clinton had the race sewn up, and because they saw her as the “lesser evil”, they thought they could vote for someone else without consequence. I have a cousin who is one such person, and he has candidly admitted to me that if he had known just how dangerously close the race actually was, he would have voted for Clinton. He really didn’t like her, but he certainly didn’t want Trump to beat her, either.
Anywho, I think a lot of those types of people are going to be a lot more gunshy in 2020, knowing that Trump absolutely can win the election if everybody doesn’t take this seriously. If Gabbard really does launch a third party candidacy, she’ll have as much impact on the 2020 election as Ralph Nader had on the 2004 election (yes, he ran that year as well). Which is to say, none.
catclub
@BBA:
I think Bloomberg really, really does not want Trump re-elected. he is the least likely to run as third party spoiler.
Mnemosyne
@Baud:
See?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@schrodingers_cat:
She dropped from my #2 choice after Harris for that reason.
janesays
@catclub: Correct. He’s said in very clear terms that he will support whoever the Democratic nominee winds up being, and he explicitly included Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren by name when he said that.
Tom Q
@janesays: I’ve always felt that, had we re-run the 2016 election 2 days later, with everyone knowing the actual possibility of Trump winning existed, millions of people who voted Stein/Johnson or stayed home, would have turned out and Hillary would have won comfortably.
sdhays
@Tom Q: Me too. We’ll see how Biden does in South Carolina, but when he announced, I also predicted that he would flame out. I just expected it to happen about 4 months ago.
Marcopolo
@Emma from FL: I think the vast majority of Americans, no matter their race, are low-info voters. It is what I see & reflects to a great extent the huge influence that media narratives & advertising have on voters choices (you know, as opposed to spending time trying to do research on various candidates–which takes time & perseverance).
Further, ignoramus is your very connotative word, not mine.
We live in an information space that can make it difficult to get good unbiased knowledge about politics.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: It’s the political chops that are required to beat Trump.
Miss Bianca
@zhena gogolia:
I think a lot of what we’re hearing so far from the first two contests is the sound of millions of voters saying just that. What that means as far as our eventual candidate goes, I have yet to determine. I don’t know whether to feel slightly hopeful or profoundly pessimistic.
Baud
@Tom Q: That’s what people said about the initial Brexit vote. Then things spiraled out of control.
At some point, we’re going to have to learn to take voting seriously.
Mnemosyne
@Marcopolo:
The parade is more winning Iowa and New Hampshire by small margins is indicative of jack shit, so IMO that actually supports my point even better. ?♀️
janesays
@Baud: That’s actually exceptionally rare. Dubya had it for a little more than 4 years from November 2002 until January 2007, but that’s the only time since 1981 that either party has had full control of the White House, Senate, and House for at least two consecutive congressional terms. Prior to that was the 4 years of the Carter Presidency. Reagan and Bush41 never had it at any point in their presidencies, and Clinton, Obama, and Trump have each had for their first two years, and then lost it.
catclub
anybody know how NH turnout volume was compared with other years?
Tom Q
@Miss Bianca: I think some people think Trump is such an existential threat that they’re mortally afraid of contributing to picking the wrong candidate to oppose him. A sort of “Let the people smarter than I pick the candidate, and I’ll vote for him/her then”. Which could lead to not-record primary turnout, but still allow for record November turnout.
Another Scott
I just donated to SP Warren again.
It’s still early.
She’s still the person that I think would do the best job in fixing what’s broken and moving the country forward.
Cheers,
Scott.
PJ
@Baud: I don’t think we (as a nation) are going to take voting seriously until more white people start dying prematurely. That’s what it took with opioids.
Unfortunately, that means many more years of Republican rule.
Mnemosyne
@janesays:
As one of the idiots who voted for Nader in 2000, I’m more than willing to forgive the people who realize they made a huge mistake in 2016 and have resolved to do better this time around.
It’s the morons who insist that they were right to vote for Stein or stay home and it was all Hillary’s fault anyway who drive me nuts. Sadly, several of them have prominent places in the Sanders campaign.
tomtofa
@jonas: My mom was freaked out by the nuclear tests in the 50s, and somehow decided that powdered milk was less likely to be contaminated than liquid milk. Of course, it was also cheaper.
60 years later I still have the occasional flashback to the taste of that stuff.
janesays
@Tom Q: I think there’s going to be a ton of that. The fact of the matter is, there is no rock star in this field of candidates. There’s no Obama in this bunch. Every one of them has glaring flaws, some of them a lot more than others. I think there are a lot of voters whose mindset is, “I don’t care who the nominee is, I’m voting for them no matter what, you guys go ahead and figure it out and get back to me when you’re done.”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
And you call yourself a jackal.
tomtofa
@Martin: I loved that. Do they still make it?
Original Lee
@Anne Laurie: My dad went all Euell Gibbons on us for about 3 years. I still like purslane at the beginning of spring, but the rest was mostly not a taste sensation I cared to repeat.
glory b
@WaterGirl: I know, I was trying to scroll down and hit the post comment button by accident.
mrmoshpotato
@janesays:
No $12000 lottery!?!?!?! Noooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!
Fuck him!
janesays
@Tom Q: I’m 100% convinced of that. I know a number of people who skipped out on voting in 2016 because they didn’t like either Trump or Clinton, but preferred Clinton over Trump, just not enough to bother voting for her, because they assumed Trump was going to get stomped and they were horrified when he actually won (the Electoral College). And then they felt very guilty for their apathy, as they should have. Most of those people are crawling over broken glass to vote this year.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Original Lee:
How were the pine cones?
janesays
@Tom Q: Sanders is, as of tonight, very narrowly the frontrunner, but he’s an extremely vulnerable frontrunner, and he has nothing that could remotely be characterized as a solid lead. I think it’s a four horse race now: Sanders, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar. Don’t really care much for any of them, but that’s where we are. I’ll probably vote for whoever appears to have the best shot to beat Bernie when my state votes.
zhena gogolia
@Miss Bianca:
I’m in a state that doesn’t matter, either in the primaries or the general.
Original Lee
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Blech. I think the pine cones he was talking about did not exits by us. I refused to eat pine nuts for almost 30 years because of that.
janesays
It may be just me, but this is probably the first presidential race since 1992 where I still have no idea who is going to be the Democratic nominee after the first two contests.
Gore was obvious from the moment he announced his candidacy in 2000.
Kerry was obvious after he spanked Dean in the first two states in 2004.
Obama felt obvious to me in 2004 after Iowa, even though it was far from certain until some time later.
Clinton was obvious to me the moment she announced her candidacy and no formidable opposition jumped in. I may have felt different if Biden had run that year, but I never saw Sanders as a real threat to Clinton. He did better than I expected him to do, but I knew before the voting even began he wouldn’t win the nomination.
This year, I really have no idea. I really have a hard time seeing it being either Biden or Warren, but I’m not ruling out any of the top six candidates in my mind just yet (though I do think the top four have much stronger odds).
jonas
Biden’s been coasting a long time now on name recognition in a crowded field where people didn’t initially know a lot about the other candidates, save for maybe Sanders and Warren. But now that he’s been out campaigning for a while, it’s pretty clear that he’s…well, not that good at this. Maybe there’s a reason he flamed out of at least two presidential contests earlier when he wasn’t in his late 70’s. He may turn things around in South Carolina if his firewall of AfAm support proves as robust as everyone says, but I’m not optimistic. I’m also doubtful Sanders has real staying power, either, and I don’t think he can beat Trump. I’m thinking it may be Klobuchar who comes out of these early primaries a lot stronger than we expected.
janesays
@zhena gogolia: Missouri, right?
We’re voting the week after Super Tuesday. There’s a pretty decent chance it will still be a hot race at that point, though we may be down to just two or three candidates.
mrmoshpotato
@janesays: Good to hear, but it’s a damn shame this past 3 years of entirely preventable shit had to happen to make them realize elections always have a winner.
Brachiator
@Tom Q:
Faulty reasoning because these candidates are not going to pick themselves. I would rather folks believed in the wisdom of the crowd and just picked somebody based on any favorable trait they wanted.
ETA: wow. 400 plus comments. I have been working and took a peek to see what was happening.
catclub
it looks to me that turnout in NH is quite high, possibly higher than 2008
janesays
@Mnemosyne: There are actually FIFTY-FIVE more contests left after tonight… the remaining 48 states + DC + American Samoa + Northern Mariana Islands + Puerto Rico + Guam + U.S. Virgin Islands + Democrats Abroad
The whole “57 states” nontroversy with Barack Obama back in 2008 actually was caused by him having a brainfart and mixing up the number of contests in the primary (57) with the numbers of states.
O. Felix Culpa
Based on a poll of one (myself), they go to Klobuchar. Definitely NOT Sanders. For me, Democrat > lefty unicorn-chaser.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@janesays: IIRC, in 2008, Texas had both a primary and caucus which both awarded delegates.
janesays
@mrmoshpotato: Some of them realized it immediately – as in that night – but just assumed that skipping out on the election wouldn’t matter because all the TV people were telling them Clinton was a shoo-in.
janesays
@O. Felix Culpa: I’m gonna vote for whoever has the best chance of beating Sanders if he’s still near the top of the field when I vote on March 10th. If that person is Klobuchar, she has my vote. If it’s Bloomberg, he has my vote. If it’s Buttigieg, he has my vote.
laura
Holy Tbogg Unit Baud!
mrmoshpotato
@janesays: Yes, not voting to keep “Hillary stink” off their voting records (personal memory records). I have no sympathy, and I’m related to someone who didn’t vote for President in 2016 – in Michigan!
PJ
@laura: Not gonna make it, unless we make a determined effort . . .
mrmoshpotato
@janesays: I’m considering doing the same – strategic votes – even though Warren is my favorite, but we’re a week after you, and voting by mail gives me time to fill out the down ticket.
mrmoshpotato
@laura:
What’s going on? Should we take cover?
burnspbesq
I know that as a Texan (moved here a year and a day ago), I’m supposed to regard Blue Bell as God’s own ice cream, but I find it to be vastly overrated. Gimme HD or B&J, tyvm.
jk
@WaterGirl
“I do find your gloating to be unbecoming.”
Prior to this election cycle, Joe Biden already had the best ending of a political career anyone could have asked for – 8 years serving as Vice President to a popular, beloved President. He didn’t need to do a single thing. I find his epic hubris and arrogance to launch this stupid Presidential campaign at his advanced age pretty damn unbecoming, especially when there were 4 eminently qualified female senators in the race. He and Sanders sucked up all the oxygen in the room forcing Booker, Harris, Gillibrand to drop out. For this reason, I celebrate Biden’s misfortune. Uncle Joe has never been anything other than a gaffe prone, showboating buffoon so he’s getting exactly what he deserves.
dww44
@burnspbesq: Don’t know what this makes me or spouse, but not only do we like Blue Bell, we actually mostly buy the Kroger brand. All sorts of flavors, and then there’s Turkey Hill’s Pistachio Almond, which is spouse’s absolute favorite. Since I/we’ve never bought B&J or HD, then our preferences probably don’t count for much.