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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Some Observations About Yesterday

Some Observations About Yesterday

by $8 blue check mistermix|  February 12, 20207:39 am| 140 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections

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Sanders winning the Eastern Vermont primary is expected, though his winning margin is narrow enough to raise a lot of questions. Warren placing fourth in the Northern Massachusetts primary, below the delegate threshold, is an issue for her. Her gracious concession speech wasn’t carried live [clarification: on CNN], while Biden’s phoned-in speech from South Carolina was. Par for the course for the obstacles she’s faced all her life, and during this campaign, as a woman.

There was a tweet yesterday showing Warren greeting Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden supporters after bringing her supporters donuts yesterday. It embodies everything “Dick Nixon” (Justin Sherin) said about her last night:

That thing the other day where Warren said she'd "lead the parade" if someone else adopted her policy positions — that is a humane thing to do. It is not a political thing.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) February 12, 2020

There’s still a lot of hope for Warren supporters like me. Manys the slips twixt cup and lip that could happen to Mayor Pete, Amy and Bernie in the next few weeks. A humane person could be around to pick up the pieces, and she would be an excellent candidate.

The Amy campaign has to be happy this morning, and the Pete campaign should also be pleased. Goodbye Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett. I’m sad that Steyer and Tulsi didn’t join the fail parade.

Bloomberg is the wild card. A friend of mine told me the other day that he’s voting for Bloomberg because my friend feels that he’s sitting at the blackjack table with 17, the dealer is showing a face card, and he needs to take a hit even though it’s crazy to do it. I don’t feel the same way, but yesterday Bloomberg showed the kind of wild card energy he brings to the race. Yesterday morning, some podcaster tweeted out a recording of Bloomberg saying that he concentrated cops on minority neighborhoods because “that’s where the crime is”. In response, Trump tweeted out “WOW, BLOOMBERG IS A TOTAL RACIST”. Then, he deleted the tweet. Why? Obviously, because Trump’s supporters supports stop and frisk, and it offends his base to call a white man a racist.

In response, Bloomberg issued this statement that began with an apology about his failure to end stop-and-frisk soon enough, continued to point out some of his achievements as mayor in minority communities, and ended with a solid attack on Trump. He responded to Trump’s tweet, not the podcaster’s attack. It’s about as good a statement as one can make in the circumstances, and it shows that he’s serious about winning, since billionaires and apologies are like oil and water.

This is Bloomberg’s strength: he wants it, bad, and it shows; he dwells inside Trump’s head, and whenever he goads Trump into an attack, he just takes a baseball bat to him, and Democrats love it. Attacks on Trump are far more palatable to Democrats than the 19th debate over M4A, because what unites every Democrat is the desire to beat Trump. If you’re Bloomberg-curious, this has to be part of the reason: Trump fears him, and he spends every day shitting on Trump. (Though I’m betting that Bloomberg-curiosity will end with his first contact with a debate stage, when his rusty fumbling meets the buzz saw of the time-sharpened debate skills of the top four candidates, especially Warren and Sanders.)

The problem that bedevils Bloomberg and every other challenger to Sanders is that the anti-Sanders opposition is split. Bernie has a hard core of supporters. Other Democrats are divided over the flavors of the day (Buttigieg and Klobuchar, right now), Warren, Bloomberg and certainly Biden as we get into the South. As we saw in the New Hampshire debates, nobody wants to go after Bernie hammer and tongs, because they don’t want to alienate the Sanders supporters that they need to pick up to win.

This is similar to the situation with the Republicans in 2016. Support for the non-Trump candidates ping-ponged between each of them depending on whatever ephemeral event brought them into the spotlight. Because each of them wanted to pick up the pieces when the “unelectable” Trump flamed out, they limited themselves to a few half-hearted, ineffectual attacks in the early campaign. Once they realized he was a serious contender and started hitting back hard, it was too late. Obviously, it’s nowhere near too late for Democrats — still, Bu-mentum, Bloom-mentum, Liz-mentum or the Klobucharge needs to manifest itself soon, otherwise we’ll all be feeling the Bern.

[Update: See Steve M for more detail on the collective action problem with the non-Sanders candidates.]
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Reader Interactions

140Comments

  1. 1.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 7:47 am

    [Warren’s] gracious concession speech wasn’t carried live, while Biden’s phoned-in speech from South Carolina was. Par for the course for the obstacles she’s faced all her life, and during this campaign, as a woman.

    Good God, that’s infuriating.

  2. 2.

    JPL

    February 12, 2020 at 7:51 am

    @Betty Cracker: The media doesn’t even pretend anymore.

  3. 3.

    download my app in the app store mistermix

    February 12, 2020 at 7:56 am

    @Betty Cracker: The blaring “Klobuchar’s astonishing third place finish” headlines versus the crickets about Warren’s finish in Iowa are also infuriating.  Not taking anything away from Klobuchar – she earned it.  But, still

    Just to be clear, I used “phoned in” as a metaphor – Biden delivered that speech in front of a South Carolina crowd.

  4. 4.

    Lapassionara

    February 12, 2020 at 7:57 am

    The media should be focused like a laser on the rise of fascism in the US. Instead, we get interviews with people who think socialism is the worst possible form of government.

  5. 5.

    rikyrah

    February 12, 2020 at 7:58 am

    Past 10 months have taken a considerable toll on Sanders. Democrats should make it a rule that candidates in our party be required to release their full medical histories, not just notes from doctors – we're not the party of Trump and a 78-yr-old candidate's health matters. pic.twitter.com/TrB3t1if7d— M. Mendoza Ferrer (@m_mendozaferrer) February 12, 2020

  6. 6.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 7:58 am

    Just saw a clip of Biden’s speech, and it was “phoned-in” in more ways than one. Meanwhile, the more benign oligarch who is wearing a D on his lapel this year racked up a notable endorsement yesterday:

    Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), a gun regulation activist whose son was shot and killed, endorsed Mike Bloomberg’s Democratic presidential campaign Wednesday, joining a growing coterie of House members to support the former New York mayor two years after he helped elect them to Congress.

    I think it was Kay who pointed out that Bloomberg has a network that serves as ground game through his foundation. It’s paying off. The actual Democrats are trapped in the prescribed primary slog while Bloomberg floats above it all, dropping hundreds of millions of dollars in ads nationwide.

  7. 7.

    rikyrah

    February 12, 2020 at 7:59 am

    Thanks to @AriMelber reporting, 5 million minorities were stopped and frisked in NYC!! ApologizIng isn’t going to do it! @MikeBloomberg needs to tell us why it continued for years, and only apologize now that he’s running for Presiden. @Morning_Joe @MSNBC #morningJoe— Barbara Patterson (@patte151) February 12, 2020

  8. 8.

    sanjeevs

    February 12, 2020 at 8:01 am

    Support for the non-Trump candidates ping-ponged between each of them depending on whatever ephemeral event brought them into the spotlight

    Why did this happen?
    Because Trump had a social media army which relentlessly tore down his leading opponent at the time.

    We can already see the same dynamic in the Democratic primary.

  9. 9.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:02 am

    I think we operated on some bad assumptions and part of that was because it was more anti-Bernie than pro-anything. I don’t ever think there was any evidence that Sanders and Warren supporters were in the same “lane” (although we were told that repeatedly and I believed it) – because Warren lost support and it didn’t go to Bernie. I’m not clear people are voting on ideology or even policy at all. I think we’ve know it for a while, if you wanted to look. The second choices don’t make any sense if they’re voting on ideology. Listing Biden as your first choice and Sanders as your second doesn’t make any sense in that context, and people have listed 1st and 2nd choices like that – liberal/centrist or centrist/liberal over and over. I think they want to win and they’re casting around searching for someone who can get a majority and win. If someone wins three in a row that would be enough for most Democrats.

  10. 10.

    download my app in the app store mistermix

    February 12, 2020 at 8:06 am

    @sanjeevs: There was also the social media army of one – Trump on Twitter.  The media gave Trump gobs of coverage, fawning over every tweet.

    That said, every Democrat is going to face Trump’s social media army, and if they can’t overcome Bernie’s, how in the hell will they beat Trump’s ?

  11. 11.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:08 am

    @rikyrah:

    What bothers me about it is it’s a lie. He didn’t reluctantly “inherit” stop and frisk. He actively and loudly supported it. I mean Jesus Christ- are we going to get another gaslighter? WTF is wrong with these people that they seem incapable of telling the truth? Especially Bloomberg, who is blanketing the country with ads calling Trump a liar.

    He has a hurdle to climb anyway on honesty because he is telling us he miraculously became an economic liberal overnight. I don’t believe that. That’s hard enough to believe but he’s demanding we all swallow it. He’s now going to lie about stop and frisk, a lie that is easily disproved?

  12. 12.

    Raven Onthill

    February 12, 2020 at 8:10 am

    @Kay: Whenever it is formally studied, it is found that a majority of voters don’t vote on policy so, yes, you’re right.

    Sanders, Bloomberg, or Buttigieg. Well, it’s early yet. But supposing the candidate is one of those, how the devil are we going to turn out women and African-Americans? How many Trump supporters will turn out to oppose the socialist Sanders?

    I have run out of cuss words and am reduced to incoherent croaking.

    PS: I suppose African-Americans will turn out, possibly reluctantly, for any Democrat. They vote strategically and they hate Trump. Women…?

  13. 13.

    gvg

    February 12, 2020 at 8:10 am

    It just hit me that a strategy of vote for whomever the black Democrats like, won’t work like some of us assumed it would, because they are too pragmatic.  It’s more obvious this year, but they vote strategically all the time, which means they vote for who they think the majority will like that are just a bit more minority safe than the alternative.  That means they are trying to vote like us and if we are trying to vote like them, nobody knows anything. Mirror universe.  Sigh…..

    It’s a good idea to just listen though.

  14. 14.

    sanjeevs

    February 12, 2020 at 8:12 am

    @download my app in the app store mistermix: Good question. Social media armies have transformed politics in the last five years or so. I can’t believe none of the candidates have learned that lesson. And that includes Bloomberg from what I’ve seen so far.

    Also I kind of suspect Sanders and Trump’s armies operate out the same address.

  15. 15.

    zzyzx

    February 12, 2020 at 8:14 am

    I mean I know that’s the joke, but actively avoiding Klomentum in that list was like intentionally hitting a sour note in a melody. Painful!

  16. 16.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:15 am

    @Raven Onthill:

    Whenever it is formally studied, it is found that a majority of voters don’t vote on policy so, yes, you’re right.

    How many Trump supporters will turn out to oppose the socialist Sanders?

    Your first statement contradicts your second.

    Trump supporters don’t support him because he’s an economic conservative. They won’t be coming out in droves to oppose a “socialist” – they’ll be coming out in droves to support Dear Leader from whoever and whatever opposes him.

  17. 17.

    MazeDancer

    February 12, 2020 at 8:16 am

    Either Klobuchar-Warren announce a unity ticket or it’s Bloomberg.

    When I saw Biden on Morning Joe, yesterday, I was shook. He was so low. He felt down and out. Yes, he would be a good President, with a great Cabinet, and do the necessary repair work well. And Jill would restore FLOTUS.

    But he can’t get elected if he’s tired. Maybe he’ll perk up in SC.

    Trump needs a baseball bat. Daily. Yes, he will likely be another dictator, but at least Bloomberg will act like he believes in the Constitution.

    America is exhausted. Bloomberg is saying, Worry not, I will destroy him. And Bernie, too. And win you the Senate. And protect Nancy Pelosi even though she will try to move me to the left.

    Hard to say no to that.

  18. 18.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 8:16 am

    @Kay: Polling seems to support your theory. People are running scared, and in their defense, this is pretty fucking scary!

  19. 19.

    JPL

    February 12, 2020 at 8:22 am

    @Betty Cracker: I’m scared, because we have a president that is allowed to destroy people, and he won’t be stopped.    trump is on twitter now going after the prosecutors who walked away from the Stone case.

  20. 20.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:23 am

    @Betty Cracker:

    That’s been the local Democrats from the start. I get it completely. Just show them the way and they will follow. This is markedly different than their usual cranky cat-wandering.

    I had my middle son here and we watched returns last night. His IBEW local endorsed Biden early and he said “why would they do that- it was dumb”- they did that because they were told he was the strongest and they want to win.

    Amy K. came on and he said “who is that?”, in this funny way, like “she could possibly win, perhaps!” I felt like I could have signed him up right there for the Amy K. campaign. He has no idea who she is but she appeared to be giving some kind of victory speech, so he’s in :)

  21. 21.

    Raven Onthill

    February 12, 2020 at 8:23 am

    @Kay: “socialist” isn’t a description of policy in the minds of Trump supporters (and many other Americans); it’s another word for “devil.” Since elections in the USA hinge on turnout, this matters a lot; people will turn out to vote against the red devil.

  22. 22.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 8:25 am

     

    @Raven Onthill: So is “Democrat.”

  23. 23.

    JPL

    February 12, 2020 at 8:26 am

    We need to have a poll to see how many on this site, isn’t scared.   It’s no way to have a democracy but that’s where we are at.

  24. 24.

    JMG

    February 12, 2020 at 8:26 am

    I would not assume Bloomberg is a poor debater. He was Mayor of NYC for a decade, so he’s had practice. Warren has already indicated total lack of interest in becoming Vice President. I would imagine that the winning nominee will pick an African American as running mate. Also a younger running mate, but if it’s not Mayor Pete, that’s inevitable. Booker and Harris should never turn off their phones come June and July.

  25. 25.

    Raven Onthill

    February 12, 2020 at 8:27 am

    @Baud: true. Used to be, though, that “socialist” was worse than “Democrat” for our right-wingers. I don’t know if that still is true.

  26. 26.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 8:29 am

    @JMG:

    Booker and Harris should never turn off their phones come June and July.

    The fate of the country is not worth dealing with robocalls.

  27. 27.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 8:31 am

    @Kay: There’s a debate in a week. Looks like it’ll be down to Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Maybe it’ll be clarifying.

  28. 28.

    hueyplong

    February 12, 2020 at 8:32 am

    Bloomberg is just shy of promising to beat Trump to death with a large wrench on network TV.

    And with each new outrage I get closer to saying that I’m here for it.

    So the better candidates (everyone but Bernie and Tulsi) need to jump on this winning strategy right away.  Before Bloomberg acquires the intellectual property rights to it.

    It’s where we are, sort of like how we were people we didn’t want to scrutinize too closely in the mirror to dispense with the axis.

  29. 29.

    trnc

    February 12, 2020 at 8:32 am

    Obviously, because Trump’s supporters supports stop and frisk, and it offends his base to call a white man a racist.

    They support stop and frisk, but they have no problem calling anyone of any color identifying as a democrat a racist.

  30. 30.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 8:33 am

    @Betty Cracker: No Steyer or Bloomberg?

  31. 31.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:36 am

    It bothers me a little because Democrats know some of this. They know Joe Biden is a weak candidate. I mean come on- it was always Obama driving that ticket. Joe Biden never would have won on his own. Joe was, and this was the Obama ’08 campaign’s actual approach, a “validator”. He was someone we knew who could tell us Obama was okay.

    They know a “stop Bernie” approach will probably fail, because people barely pay attention let alone game out some elaborate scenario to “stop'” something.  But they don’t have any confidence and they ignored what they know because they are scared to lose and looking for direction. I’m anxious too but fear is really corrosive and it won’t win. I don’t know how to fix it.

  32. 32.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 12, 2020 at 8:37 am

    @JPL: FWIW, I’m not scared, which is not to say I am certain we will win this election. Win or lose the fight will remain. One is either in it for the long haul or getting run over.

  33. 33.

    Kattails

    February 12, 2020 at 8:42 am

    I canvassed for Warren for a couple of days, crappy weather and awful driveways.  Then stood at the polls for 3 hours with my signs.  My takeaway: A lot of people were undecided right up to the last minute.  However, the longest conversations I had were with people who were choosing between Bernie and Elizabeth, and I don’t think I swayed them.  I was trying to present a positive message of her accomplishments & not bash BS, which was hard to do b/c I can’t stand him.  One guy thought BS had the best chance to win against Trump. Can’t really counter that because it’s just an idea based on not much. One was a bearded middle aged guy, another a younger woman with a toddler in arms who’d been listening to her brother.

    Came home and thought it over.  The campaign itself advises listening.  Next time I’d go in with her accomplishments, and if they’re still hanging back, ask them point blank but very nicely to tell me what his accomplishments are… tell me, in other words, why I should change my mind and vote for Bernie. What has he done? What legislation has he passed? I said he didn’t have plans to pay for his education bills, the young woman said she thought she’d heard them, I should have asked her what they were.  Same with the “best chance of winning” guy. What do you think is going to win it? Somehow you have to get the cult to think outside their own box. This is advice to any of you going forward. I’m not quick on my verbal feet & really have to prepare. I feel like I let Elizabeth down.  :(

    Afterward, at work, mentioned to my MOD that I didn’t like Bernie and he went on a rant about how shitty a state VT seems to be. We are on the border and get a lot of Vermonters in the store. We had two truckers in the other night bitching about how awful the roads are, 5 cars off the road last snowstorm and still no sanding trucks out. My MOD was going on about how no one has any teeth, they’re either black and rotten or they just pull them. And I’m talking about relatively young people. He came up to NH from Mass and was shocked when he started working in this store at the state of people’s teeth(!) So what’s Bernie done for his state when no one can afford basic care? I realize that this is an odd aside, but this rant was from a 60 year old basic kind of white working guy.

    Also, this is an open primary and a lot of crossover votes go to ratf*ck the other side. A lot of independents & I had two people casually and even proudly admit to voting to deliberately sway one ticket or another in the past. I didn’t talk to that many, two is a high percentage for such info to drop. How TF is this representative?

    I am really sick of this Iowa/NH thing. We need national, closed, rotating primaries.

    Gotta get some work done,  more snow coming tonight.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    February 12, 2020 at 8:43 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: +1

    This, also too.

    Can y’all chill with the political obituaries until some black folk have voted? Thanks.

    — Bakari Sellers (@Bakari_Sellers) February 11, 2020

    It’s a long road, and the journey has barely started.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  35. 35.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 8:43 am

    @Baud: They hadn’t qualified as of a few days ago, according to this WaPo article where I got the info.

  36. 36.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:44 am

    @Betty Cracker:

    I’ve reached “let it happen” point, which was inevitable but you still have to get there :)

    I don’t think Warren can do it, so although I have supported her from the start I’ll easily switch to Amy.

    I just think the focus on Bernie is misplaced. Bernie is the Left lane. He’s strong over there. The weakness and chaos is in the centrist lane. They didn’t have to savagely destroy him- they had to make him irrelevant. They are the majority of Democrats. He’s a minority. Like Trump he doesn’t create a weakness, he exposes one.

  37. 37.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    February 12, 2020 at 8:44 am

    @Raven Onthill: I always find it funny/infuriating that those same Trump supporters (my late parents, my BIL)  LOVE them some socialist programs that benefit them.  Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Disability.   My mothers refrain for years was “the seniors, the seniors”  which I understand, but her attitude was basically I’ve got mine, too bad for the  grandkids.

    They were the same way about Climate Change, yeah it’s probably happening, but they would be dead by then, so Not Their Problem

  38. 38.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 8:48 am

    @Kay:

    Like Trump he doesn’t create a weakness, he exposes one.

    I believe that too. The same is true of Bloomberg.

  39. 39.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 8:48 am

    @Betty Cracker: Thanks.

  40. 40.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:49 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    There’s one optimistic thing that I think media is getting wrong. I still think Democrats will rally around the winner. The “Dems in Disarray” template they’re using is stale and doesn’t describe what’s happening and they’re obsessed with ideological differences and voters aren’t. I don’t know if it will be enough to beat Trump because they will crawl over broken glass to adore Dear Leader, but Democrats will support the nominee. They just want to win.

  41. 41.

    MazeDancer

    February 12, 2020 at 8:49 am

    The media will dislike Bloomberg because they won’t be able to control the narrative.

  42. 42.

    PST

    February 12, 2020 at 8:49 am

    @Betty Cracker: I thought I watched Warren’s speech live last night on MSNBC. It was rather early. She was interviewed later as well. It was characteristically gracious. She’s actually the embodiment of “Minnesota nice.” Klobuchar is more of a stone killer with a huge smile, which is okay with me.

  43. 43.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 8:50 am

    Pete B has more delegates but BS is the winner/frontrunner etc. etc. Math is not a strong suit for these blowhards on shouty TV is it? They are too eager to anoint him as our nominee.

  44. 44.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 8:50 am

    @Kay:

    I think we mostly win or lose based on our turnout, not theirs.

  45. 45.

    Geminid

    February 12, 2020 at 8:50 am

    @Raven Onthill: I don’t think the label “socialist” in the abstract is so very damaging. But anyone who cares to research the junior senator from Vermont’s words and actions 1970-90 might see how the Republicans can find plenty of concrete examples to stigmatize the label. If he is the nominee we’ll see the attack ads. Big chunks of styrofoam in the water? Or icebergs that will gash big holes in the hull? Check him out now, and you decide.

  46. 46.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:52 am

    @Betty Cracker:

    I try not to think about Bloomberg because for me Bloomberg means abandoning just about all of my political principles. It’s not a small concession. It’s just about the whole thing. I also (and I’m surprised by this) think he lies easily and will continue to lie. I could settle better if these lies weren’t piling up.

  47. 47.

    Raven Onthill

    February 12, 2020 at 8:52 am

    Bloomberg. The man is an appallingly ignorant racist and sexist. But he’s a well-heeled light-skinned media mogul with a good feeling for popular opinion. He’s got a chance.

    He’s probably not a traitor. As a not-very-observant Jew (and won’t the antisemites have a field day with that) he is at least not an antisemite. Those are some positive things. But I don’t see him reforming ICE, should he be elected. He probably won’t divest. I don’t see him raising his own taxes. (I wonder if he’ll publish his tax returns.) I don’t see him fixing the courts, or the banks, He probably would allow the ACA to stand. His environmentalism is likely to come into conflict with his support for big money. If we can flip the Senate, we might get some decent policies through, but we’re going to have to fight for them.

    Blah. End of the Reconstruction, back to the Gilded Age.

    Oh, well. At least he’s not Trump.

  48. 48.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 8:53 am

    @Geminid: In the la la land of Rose Twitter, socialism is the most popular ideology in America. People who voted for the Orange King have just been waiting for the Vt Jesus to show them the way. For they are all secretly socialist and had to vote R because of the mean establishment Dems like Nancy Pelosi.

  49. 49.

    download my app in the app store mistermix

    February 12, 2020 at 8:54 am

    @PST: Just to be clear, CNN chose Biden over Warren.  I updated the post to say that

    Also, as some others pointed out, and I agree, Bloomberg’s defense of stop-and-frisk is bullshit.

  50. 50.

    Raven Onthill

    February 12, 2020 at 8:54 am

    @Geminid: oh, yeah. He wasn’t just a socialist, he was a young radical hippie and that scares older people. This is one reason I’m a Warren supporter.

  51. 51.

    kindness

    February 12, 2020 at 8:56 am

    I get a digital copy of the WaPo.  One thing I’ve noticed in the comments on articles there lately, the pro Bloomberg comments seem too similar to the troll comments for it to be a coincidence.  I’m filling my Ignore User filter like mad.  I suspect that Republicans/Russians are doing it.  The BernieBros there are the same as everywhere.  They are simply annoying twits who demand coronation of St. Bernie.  Most of them aren’t trolls so much as sad vacuous people.

  52. 52.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 8:56 am

    @Baud:

    I was pleased turnout was up in NH, but then I thought the “turnout” panic on Iowa was overdetermined and probably bullshit, so I thought it might be.

    Let’s just follow our voters. It’s difficult because more than a few of them are morons, but one must trust.

  53. 53.

    Kattails

    February 12, 2020 at 8:56 am

    Oh goodie, an email from the Justice Democrats who are going to remake the Democratic Party from the inside out. Do I click on the sign now and then just say f*ck you as many times as I care to type the words?

  54. 54.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 8:59 am

    @Kay: Same. I’d vote for Bloomberg over Trump, but I’d rather not have to affirm that our nomination is for sale.

  55. 55.

    Geminid

    February 12, 2020 at 9:03 am

    @Raven Onthill:  I think there’s more to it than that. I’m not going to drag him, but I will encourage people to spend some research time if interested.

  56. 56.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 9:04 am

    At the end of the day, this nomination was Biden’s for the taking if he were a better candidate.

  57. 57.

    Raoul

    February 12, 2020 at 9:05 am

    Are you sorry, mistermix?

  58. 58.

    Nicole

    February 12, 2020 at 9:06 am

    I’m so frustrated that  a caucus in a white state and an open primary in a white state are being used as definitive proof that it’s going to be Bernie or Pete.  Not here, of course, but by the media.   I think they’re eager to have the candidate they can tear down between now and November.

    I’m frustrated that open primaries exist at all.  We’re choosing the leader of our political party; who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let non-party members participate?  Fuck Independents; they can choose a lane or they can wait for the generals.

  59. 59.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 9:07 am

    @Baud:

    He has seemed really out of it in these debates.

  60. 60.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 9:08 am

    @Kay: That’s my plan too.

  61. 61.

    Raoul

    February 12, 2020 at 9:10 am

    Completely agree that Bloomberg’s apology was wrapped around a huge lie. Arrests went UP every year except the final of his 12. I’m really pissed about it, but most voters aren’t digesting the volume of info we jackals do, so they’ll just be like ‘oh, he apologized and ramped it down, ok’.
    Not so sure black voters will buy this tho. And if Mike is the top of the ticket, will that suppress a vital voting block?

  62. 62.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 9:10 am

    @Kay:

    It’s difficult because more than a few of them are morons,

    That’s why I thought I’d have a chance!

  63. 63.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 12, 2020 at 9:10 am

    @Kay:The “Dems in Disarray” template they’re using is stale and doesn’t describe what’s happening and they’re obsessed with ideological differences and voters aren’t.

    And Dawg knows I am tired of that. Everywhere I go (the Guardian seems especially bad) I read that BS. It’s depressing as hell to see it all the time especially when I know it isn’t true.

    I just wonder what kind of impact it has on the electorally curious (voters who are just beginning to pay attention).

  64. 64.

    Baud

    February 12, 2020 at 9:11 am

    @Raoul: If black voters won’t buy it, he won’t be on the top of the ticket.

  65. 65.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 9:12 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Guardian is BS central. They are also responsible for making neoliberal such a buzz word devoid of meaning.

  66. 66.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 12, 2020 at 9:17 am

    @schrodingers_cat: I know, but this goes beyond Bernie.

  67. 67.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 9:19 am

    @Betty Cracker:

    The icing on the cake for me is the Bloomberg sexism, which we haven’t even explored yet because the racism was the more pressing issue, given that he was physically detaining and searching people, but that will be rearing its ugly head here shortly.

    There’s a boatload of that, too. I may expire of rage if I have to vote for one of two old white male sexists.

    If Bloomberg wins I’m glad that he has completely excluded the public from his presidential race by buying it, because then it’s just a fucking straight transaction for me. Show up, give him the anti-Trump vote he bought, and go home. A chore that should be made as painless as possible.

  68. 68.

    CaseyL

    February 12, 2020 at 9:21 am

    I feel like we can’t rely on normative things anymore.  This will not be a normal election in that I have no idea how far the GOP will go to suppress and miscount the vote.  The destruction of the DOJ and the mass of unqualified judges now on Federal Courts has me seriously worried, because all legal challenges to the Right Wing regime go through the courts.

    Who has the tools, the grit, and the people to take the fight to Trump and the GOP?

    Bloomberg hates Trump on a personal basis and wants to destroy him:  that’s good in my book.  But would he support flipping the Senate?  I haven’t heard him say anything about that:  for all I know, he likes the current GOP just fine and his animus is entirely directed against Trump.

    But Trump is just the frontman – a wildly destructive frontman, but still not the brains behind the operation.  The brains behind the operation are oligarchs.  Bloomberg is an oligarch.  Who will he ally with at the end of the day?  Us? Or his own kind?

  69. 69.

    Fleeting Expletive

    February 12, 2020 at 9:24 am

    I see Bloomberg and maybe Steyer as doing something valuable in their vast media buys–educating trump voters by showing them the ugly parts they won’t see on Fox.  Favorable ad rates apply for political campaigns, so you call it a presidential candidacy and spend $$$ bringing those hideous videos and statements of his depravity and hate right to their uninformed faces.  Whether their candidacies themselves work as campaigns, the effect of millions of dollars in showing just how ugly he acts might have a salutary effect. I hope.

  70. 70.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 9:24 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: oh yeah they have been emo liberal/socialist central since forever.

  71. 71.

    Jeffro

    February 12, 2020 at 9:27 am

    Really good analysis, MM.

    It will be interesting to see what happens once

    a) Warren, Biden, and Steyer get out (and who/if they endorse)

    b) who of the remaining non-Sanders candidates realizes they have no path to win after Super Tuesday, and what they ask for from the viable candidate(s) in order to drop out and endorse.

    I doubt this goes to a brokered convention, and I doubt Sanders will be the nominee.

  72. 72.

    PST

    February 12, 2020 at 9:28 am

    @Baud:

    If black voters won’t buy it, he won’t be on the top of the ticket.

    Right, but the other side of that is that if black voters and black leaders decide Bloomberg is okay despite his past, it will have the effect of giving white liberals (like me) permission to do so as well. Endorsements like that of Lucy McBath make a difference. There is lots of talk around Chicago that Mayor Lightfoot may endorse him as well. He’s not my candidate, and I hate the idea of presidential politics becoming a playground for billionaires, but I will be a lot more Bloomberg-curious than I am now if he picks up a big share of Biden’s African-American support.

  73. 73.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 12, 2020 at 9:30 am

    @schrodingers_cat: Almost as long as I’ve been reading them.  ;-)

  74. 74.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 9:35 am

    @Nicole:

     I think they’re eager to have the candidate they can tear down between now and November.

    I think we give them too much credit. They’re really conventional and they haven’t changed a single thing in response to changed conditions.
    My youngest thinks they are anti-Bernie so I was watching returns with him and asking him to point it out because I think I have lost my bearings and he might be right- I don’t know. I don’t think it’s “anti”. I think they have no earthly idea what to do with Bernie so they keep trying to jam him into what they know.
    It’s akin to how three years into this they keep asking Trump questions and then spreading the lies he tells. They haven’t done ONE THING different. It’s a difficult problem, Trump’s lying! I don’t know how to solve it, either. But you have to TRY. It’s their profession. It clearly isn’t working but they will not fucking BUDGE.

  75. 75.

    Kattails

    February 12, 2020 at 9:42 am

    @Kay: Well that’s the first plus I’ve seen about having Bloomberg, I’ll be able to slack off for the next few months & then just show up, so thanks, I guess

    The other thing to note is that you can get your name on the NH primary ballot for $1000–looking at you, Baud!–and there were literally 20 names on the thing.

  76. 76.

    Chris Johnson

    February 12, 2020 at 9:42 am

    @kindness:

    the pro Bloomberg comments seem too similar to the troll comments for it to be a coincidence.  I’m filling my Ignore User filter like mad.  I suspect that Republicans/Russians are doing it.

    I’d want to see a Mueller-type report on that before believing it. I figure he’s bad enough as a strictly American Putin-equivalent, the notion of him being the actual Russian planned successor to Trump is beyond appalling: worth checking into, but we do have our own homegrown monsters, ya know? Doesn’t make him a puppet. He’d probably be hugely offended at the suggestion that he was another Trump-style puppet.

    Trump is a bankrupt shell held up by Putin, has been for years. Bloomberg is more a Putin counterpart. He’s another guy like that, not ‘another Trump’.

  77. 77.

    trnc

    February 12, 2020 at 9:44 am

    @Nicole: I’m frustrated that open primaries exist at all. We’re choosing the leader of our political party; who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let non-party members participate? Fuck Independents; they can choose a lane or they can wait for the generals.

    I agree. It may have made sense before social media made it easy to send out rat copulation messages to the hoards, but there’s no excuse for it now. Intra-party decisions should be made by people willing to choose that party. That doesn’t necessarily stop people from changing their registration for just long enough to vote in the primary, but at least there would be a record and some statistics to show how many primary voters did that.

  78. 78.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    February 12, 2020 at 9:44 am

    Kinda annoyed that most N.H. headlines are “Bernie won”. This is a delegates contest. Bernie and Pete tied.

    Butt-mentum (sorry)

    Maybe “Pete-mentum”? (Seriously, please take that offensive near-slur off the front page ASAP.)

  79. 79.

    Sondra Fabe

    February 12, 2020 at 9:46 am

    None of the other candidates will “pick up” Sanders supporters if he doesn’t win the nod. They have already said they won’t vote for anyone but him, many didn’t vote for Hillary in 2016: they either stayed home or went for 3rd. party candidates, and I suspect many of them are just rabble rousers who aren’t really Democrats anyway. He certainly isn’t so why should they be?

    I’ll never forget at the convention in 2016 that he dropped out of the party maybe 5 minutes after HRC began speaking. The network was following him I guess: probably MSNBC, I thought it was very callous. Basically he only uses the org. to get on the ballots and bails a.s.a.p. which is why many of us dislike him and his peeps so much.

  80. 80.

    Chris Johnson

    February 12, 2020 at 9:46 am

    @Betty Cracker: If it is, it WILL BE sold. That’s the world we’re in now: our experiment with democracy may be literally over.

    If that’s true, we become like the Viet Cong or something: how to live in caves, hunted by the technocrats, and survive and drive off the invaders. I use that example on purpose: we LOST in Vietnam. The oligarchs worldwide may be able to destroy our country as it stands, but we ain’t going anywhere. They can put on puppet shows of pomp and circumstance, but the people will survive in spite of them (or TO spite them).

  81. 81.

    dww44

    February 12, 2020 at 9:47 am

    @Kay:  I’m still very much a Warren supporter.  IMO she really is the best of those left standing.  I would take Klobuchar or Buttigieg.  But, Biden, Bloomberg, and Sanders are too old. They are of my generation.  TBH, Warren is as well, but she’s in a whole other category by herself.

    We do have to field an exceptionally strong candidate, but it remains to be seen who that will be.   If nothing else, the Democratic Party needs to figure out how to shorten and make fairer this ridiculously long primary season that benefits no one but cable news.  It certainly doesn’t benefit Democratic voters and it certainly doesn’t benefit the candidates.

  82. 82.

    PsiFighter37

    February 12, 2020 at 9:48 am

    @CaseyL: I’m pretty sure that Bloomberg realizes that if he is the Democratic nominee, he has to support Democratic candidates for the Senate and the House.

    It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. I’m really worried about the money game, though. The only people with the resources to go toe-to-toe with Wilmer right now are Bloomberg and Steyer. Amy needs a real pickup in fundraising to have a shot, as does Former Mayor Pete. I think big donors will abandon Biden in droves – and him losing SC (which I think has a real shot of happening now) is the nail in the coffin for him. Warren – I know she has resources in many Super Tuesday states, but she has not been shy about mentioning that she has a money shortage now.

    I will watch the next debate, which will have Bloomberg, because that will determine if he’s ready for the big leagues or not.

  83. 83.

    Sondra Fabe

    February 12, 2020 at 9:49 am

    @Fleeting Expletive: Well I think you’re right and it certainly informs everyone else which is a good thing. Whether #45*’s voters absorb it? Who knows…maybe a few…maybe just enough for a small dent…

  84. 84.

    JMG

    February 12, 2020 at 9:49 am

    Bloomberg’s platform as enunciated in his campaign ads is solidly within the parameters of the Democratic party as a whole. Does he mean it? Search me, but that’s how he’s running. He was a mayor for a long time and has many ties with that predominantly Democratic group of office holders. McBath’s support is not surprising considering Bloomberg’s long and worthy support of gun control. Yeah, he’s a jerk. But he ain’t Putin.

    It continues to surprise me that no commentators have figured out that Mayor Pete has an actual support base. There are plenty of LGBQT Americans and it stands to reason his candidacy inspires in many of them the same feelings Obama did with African Americans. It’s just not a demo they ask about in exit polls.

  85. 85.

    Kay

    February 12, 2020 at 9:52 am

    I’m doing “interviews” at the high school today. It’s really fun. We fake-interview the kids for jobs and then we talk to them individually and privately about how they did. They are supposed to dress for the interviews and I have noticed the lower income kids dress in their formal clothes. They don’t seem to have a middle group of apparel, so it’s jeans and t shirts or literally what they wore to a wedding. All of the formal dress is for summer too, so it looks odd and is probably uncomfortable- it’s too cold for a summer dress. I started telling them this- that they can wear slacks and shirt with a collar and belt and shoes and that’s a kind of uniform and I was afraid to hurt their feelings but they are really appreciative. There’s a sweetness there that kind of breaks my heart. They just want to be in on the secret. Crack the code.

    I think that is what Bernie misses – they don’t want to overturn the system. They want a place in it. I don’t think that’s an economic impulse of theirs, it’s not an embrace of markets or whatever. They want to belong where they want to go.

  86. 86.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 9:52 am

    I’m always interested in what fellow Democrats think about candidates and why, but I can’t see falling in line behind a lying, racist, sexist, fiscal scold of an oligarch who is openly purchasing the nomination. If it’s Bloomberg or Trump, I’ll drag my ass to the polls and vote for motherfucking Bloomberg. But I will never, not for one hot second, be “Bloomberg-curious,” more like “Bloomberg-resigned.”

  87. 87.

    Chris Johnson

    February 12, 2020 at 9:52 am

    @CaseyL:

    Bloomberg hates Trump on a personal basis and wants to destroy him:  that’s good in my book.  But would he support flipping the Senate?  I haven’t heard him say anything about that:  for all I know, he likes the current GOP just fine and his animus is entirely directed against Trump.

    That’s my problem. He’s a Republican. This is a tactical move, and it’s personal animus, petulance like a toddler. It’s Trump he hates (also, Warren and the left, that’s clear). He’s like a hail mary for the Republicans: I’d like to see someone ask him which Republican HE would pick for a running mate. Might be a good trap, because fundamentally he IS one in all the worst ways. Of course he likes the current GOP just fine: other than Trump being there, he thinks they’re doing better than us.

  88. 88.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 9:56 am

    @Betty Cracker: Yeah same here. I don’t think he win the nomination. We are not Rs.

  89. 89.

    low-tech cyclist

    February 12, 2020 at 9:59 am

    @Lapassionara: The media should be focused like a laser on the rise of fascism in the US. Instead, we get interviews with people who think socialism is the worst possible form of government.

    This.  Trump ran as an authoritarian ruler (“I alone can fix it” should have rung every damn alarm bell in the world), and now he’s completely free to operate as one.

    And it looks like the Dems’ only decent opponent might be their own ‘man on horseback’ in Bloomberg.

    If Bloomberg is the nominee, he might actually pick up a bunch of 2016 Trump voters: they’re people who want an authoritarian daddy to fix everything, and if Bloomberg can pummel Trump in the ads they see, they may well decide he’s the real daddy.  And his racism and sexism will go over just fine with them.

    But that would leave us with a sequence of banana-republic rulers, and it would be a real fight to get back to democracy.

  90. 90.

    PsiFighter37

    February 12, 2020 at 9:59 am

    @Chris Johnson: You realize that Bloomberg has not been a registered Republican since 2006 or 2007, right?

    I’m not trying to justify it, but the flippant “oh, he’s a Republican” is ridiculous. Is it fair to say that he tried to be the mythical independent savior for many years? Absolutely. But I think he’s recognized that spending money supporting Republicans during the 2010s was a dumbass thing to do, and especially since Trump was elected – it’s gotten him nowhere on his stated top priorities (climate change and gun control). IIRC, he spent $80 million (or more) in 2018, with exactly 0% going to Republicans

    And just for clarity…Bloomberg is not at the top of my list. I’m not curious about him, because I know exactly how he ran the city I live in now for 12 years. But frankly, I would put him above both Buttigieg and Wilmer. And given Biden and Warren are in serious trouble (according to conventional wisdom, which, however much we dislike it, is still worth something), that means that Klobuchar – who doesn’t have the resources to scale her campaign nationally at the moment – is the only person left.

    I still do regret not having either Harris or Booker in the race (Castro was a lightweight IMO – I don’t miss him). Those two are definitely missed at this stage in the race.

  91. 91.

    Jinchi

    February 12, 2020 at 10:00 am

    This is Bloomberg’s strength: he wants it, bad, and it shows

    If he had wanted it bad, he could have been in the contest since last March, when he originally announced that he was not going to run for president this year. Deciding to change his mind in late November, after missing the deadline for the first 4 contests is the sort of thing only a self-absorbed narcissist could do.

    We’re all ready to write off Biden and Warren for performing poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it’s definitely long odds against them, but they both have a stronger case to make than Bloomberg does. They’ve both got actual votes on the board. Bloomberg has nothing.

    We rate his chances higher than theirs, because he’s a billionaire and he can swamp the airwaves, but he can’t just do well on Super Tuesday to take the nomination. He has to win it, pretty much everywhere on the same day.

  92. 92.

    Chyron HR

    February 12, 2020 at 10:01 am

    @Chris Johnson:

    If that’s true, we become like the Viet Cong or something: how to live in caves, hunted by the technocrats, and survive and drive off the invaders.

    Goddamn, you went from “Oops sorry I was so crazy in 2016” to “THE NEOLIBRAL PLUTOCRATS WILL HUNT US FOR FOOD” in like 3 days.

  93. 93.

    Geminid

    February 12, 2020 at 10:02 am

    @Kay: “I think that’s what Bernie misses.”.        Sanders strikes me as a man who fervently believes in “the People”, but doesn’t so much appreciate people as people.

  94. 94.

    Jinchi

    February 12, 2020 at 10:03 am

    @PsiFighter37: But I think he’s recognized that spending money supporting Republicans during the 2010s was a dumbass thing to do

    Just to be clear, the 2010s ended 6 weeks ago.

  95. 95.

    PsiFighter37

    February 12, 2020 at 10:07 am

    @Jinchi: Let’s be more precise then, since we can’t let knowing the facts get in the way of making snarky comments: he hasn’t donated to Republicans since the 2016 election, which was 3+ years ago.

  96. 96.

    sherparick

    February 12, 2020 at 10:08 am

    @JPL: Perhaps they are just letting their misogyny flag fly, or they saw the former VP of a very popular (with Democrats) President face planting in this campaign as the bigger story?  A couple of points.  Biden, barring a resurrection in South Carolina that would be almost as big a miracle as the Resurrection, is toast.  Unlike his campaigns in 1988,  and 2008 he got a few delegates this time.  I think one thing we have learned now, whatever his other strengths and virtues, running for President is not one of them.

    I will now fearlessly predict that as Joe Biden fades from the campaign, the name “Hunter Biden” will disappear from a certain someone’s twitter feed and all interest in him Fox News and Trump’s toadies in Congress will disappear.

  97. 97.

    low-tech cyclist

    February 12, 2020 at 10:12 am

    @CaseyL: Bloomberg hates Trump on a personal basis and wants to destroy him:  that’s good in my book.  But would he support flipping the Senate?  I haven’t heard him say anything about that:  for all I know, he likes the current GOP just fine and his animus is entirely directed against Trump.

    The one reason to support Bloomberg, IMHO, other than maybe being a guy who can beat Trump, is that he’s extremely serious about climate change.  If he’s got half a brain, he has to know that a GOP-controlled Senate won’t even take up legislation to address climate change.

    And even if he doesn’t know it now, he’d quickly find out as President that a Dem-controlled Senate can’t do shit if the filibuster isn’t done away with. And I have to believe he would explain to reluctant Senators that either they vote to kill the filibuster, or they get a well-financed primary challenge next time they’re up for re-election.

  98. 98.

    download my app in the app store mistermix

    February 12, 2020 at 10:13 am

    @JMG:

    It continues to surprise me that no commentators have figured out that Mayor Pete has an actual support base. There are plenty of LGBQT Americans and it stands to reason his candidacy inspires in many of them the same feelings Obama did with African Americans. It’s just not a demo they ask about in exit polls.

    It’s not that simple.  The gay community is not a monolith and they are fighting over how to respond to Pete.  Here’s an example:

    https://twitter.com/fakedansavage/status/1227574154175533057

  99. 99.

    Miss Bianca

    February 12, 2020 at 10:16 am

    @Geminid:

    “I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand!”

  100. 100.

    Another Scott

    February 12, 2020 at 10:16 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: The BBC tells me in every report that there was [klaxon][blink]CHAOS!!11[/blink][/klaxon] in Iowa.

    :-/

    20 second attention spans isn’t just an American problem.

    (sigh)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  101. 101.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 10:17 am

    @Geminid: He is a text book Marxist. Democratic Socialist is rebranding.

  102. 102.

    glory b

    February 12, 2020 at 10:17 am

    @Kay: I don’t know Kay, black people have been voting based on fear for most of the time we had the ability to vote. We voted out of hope for Obama, but the Tea Party and Trump (and let’s not forget the Roberts Court) shut that down pretty quickly. So, we are back to fear again, I’m afraid (see what I did there?).

    I also heard that Trump wants some sort of disciplinary action against Vindman. Ugh.

  103. 103.

    PST

    February 12, 2020 at 10:19 am

    @Sondra Fabe: Speaking of Bernie’s peeps, I am seeing anti-Pete comments on Twitter that strike me as being on the borderline of mocking his sexuality — like saying that he should “come out” as a Log Cabin Republican. Mayor Pete isn’t my choice, but some of the attacks have the perverse effect on me of making me happy when he does well.

  104. 104.

    Jinchi

    February 12, 2020 at 10:19 am

    @PsiFighter37: 2016 is pretty damn recent. It was the last major national election. He literally became a Democrat when he started mulling about a run for president and decided that was the ticket he could run on. I get that he’s more of a New York ‘money’ Republican with some liberal views (on gun control and climate change), but he is still ideologically a Republican, with authoritarian tendencies.

    The Democrats have a number of solid candidates already on the path to the nomination, every one of which has a stronger case to make for the nomination than Bloomberg. I don’t think most voters are looking for another one.

  105. 105.

    Betty Cracker

    February 12, 2020 at 10:20 am

    @PsiFighter37: Unfortunately, we’re still feeling the effects of Bloomberg’s 2016 donations, such as Senator Pat Toomey, a yes on Kavanaugh and Gorsuch and a no on Trump’s impeachment.

    I think it’s dumb when people lambaste Warren for being a nominal Republican in the 80s and 90s. I’m generally GLAD when anyone finds the path to sanity.

    But Bloomberg has been throwing his weight around in politics for years and was an avid fiscal scold when Obama was president. I question the sincerity of his conversion.

  106. 106.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    February 12, 2020 at 10:24 am

    @download my app in the app store mistermix: Representation matters.

    Why the whattaboutism?

  107. 107.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 12, 2020 at 10:25 am

    @PST: Me too. And I was called a hectoring bully on this blog because I was skeptical of his candidacy. So definitely not a Pete B fan.

  108. 108.

    Jinchi

    February 12, 2020 at 10:26 am

    @low-tech cyclist: The one reason to support Bloomberg, IMHO, other than maybe being a guy who can beat Trump..

    And this is a strength that has yet to be demonstrated. I don’t think Mike is any stronger against Trump than the rest of the field. Probably less so.

  109. 109.

    Geminid

    February 12, 2020 at 10:27 am

    @low-tech cyclist:       I understand how the filibuster frustrates people. I am an optimist, and I believe that the Democrats will win the presidency, the Senate, and keep the House. But I don’t take anything for granted. We could lose all three. And then the people who hope for an end to the filibuster may see their wish come true.

  110. 110.

    PST

    February 12, 2020 at 10:28 am

    @JMG:

    There are plenty of LGBQT Americans and it stands to reason his candidacy inspires in many of them the same feelings Obama did with African Americans. It’s just not a demo they ask about in exit polls.

    I think that’s an interesting observation that deserves more attention. Along those lines, I think maybe we underestimate that there are plenty of Jewish voters who wouldn’t mind seeing a Jewish president. That’s not a huge number of people, but not negligible either. I’m thinking of my wife, who is more “Bloomberg curious” than me. I’m sure she would be ten times more pleased to see a woman president, but still, a Jewish president couldn’t hurt.

  111. 111.

    rp

    February 12, 2020 at 10:30 am

    I think everyone is going to be shocked by the amount of support for Bloomberg in the AA community on Super Tuesday.

    Also, I don’t have hard evidence for this, but I don’t think Pete’s base is the LGBTQ community. I’m not sure he’s even that popular among LGBTQ voters. As the joke goes, Bernie is the grandpa that the youngsters want, and Pete is the grandson that the oldsters want. He appeals to middle aged and older white people who are socially fairly liberal, and thus perfectly fine with a gay candidate, but like the fact that he’s clean cut, went to Harvard, and, most-importantly, is non-threatening.

  112. 112.

    low-tech cyclist

    February 12, 2020 at 10:32 am

    @Betty Cracker: Unfortunately, we’re still feeling the effects of Bloomberg’s 2016 donations, such as Senator Pat Toomey, a yes on Kavanaugh and Gorsuch and a no on Trump’s impeachment.

    <snip>

    But Bloomberg has been throwing his weight around in politics for years and was an avid fiscal scold when Obama was president. I question the sincerity of his conversion.

    And of course, if McGinty had beaten Toomey, we’d only need 3 pickups rather than 4 this year (assuming we win the Presidency but Doug Jones loses in AL) to take the Senate, and 3 would be a lot easier than 4.

    But as long as his devotion to combating climate change is real, and he’s willing to do whatever it takes to get his climate agenda through Congress, I’m willing to dance with this particular devil.  My son could live to see the 22nd century; what we do (or don’t) in the next few years will go a long ways towards determining what sort of world he’s living in when he’s my age, by which point I’ll be long gone.

    Most other things, we can fix later.  Climate change isn’t one of them. AFAICT, Warren and Bloomberg are the only two candidates who might actually DO something about it, rather than let an arcane Senate tradition stand in the way.

  113. 113.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    February 12, 2020 at 10:32 am

    Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Bloomberg. He sure is buying himself a lot of attention.

    Meanwhile, in actual voting, one candidate has beaten Bernie in one state, and tied him in the next. But these (actual) accomplishments are obscured in favor of shinier objects.

    Maybe it’s the youth/inexperience. Or the “other” (did you know he’s gay?). Or maybe it’s the funny name. That combo will never work out.//

  114. 114.

    download my app in the app store mistermix

    February 12, 2020 at 10:37 am

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:  I don’t think the gay community is automatically for Pete, just like the black community wasn’t automatically for Obama in early 2008.  If you read through those tweets, they represent two strains of thinking.  One is by Dan Savage, big name in the community, who doesn’t like Pete’s positions but is defending him from another member of the community who calls Pete an assimilationist.  It isn’t “whataboutism”.

  115. 115.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    February 12, 2020 at 10:37 am

    @rp:

    He appeals to middle aged and older white people who are socially fairly liberal, and thus perfectly fine with a gay candidate, but like the fact that he’s clean cut, went to Harvard, and, most-importantly, is non-threatening.

    This could have been written about Obama in early 2008 (with one or two minor adjustments, obv.).

  116. 116.

    low-tech cyclist

    February 12, 2020 at 10:40 am

    @Geminid: I understand how the filibuster frustrates people. I am an optimist, and I believe that the Democrats will win the presidency, the Senate, and keep the House. But I don’t take anything for granted. We could lose all three. And then the people who hope for an end to the filibuster may see their wish come true.

    Mitch McConnell will get rid of the filibuster the moment he believes it’s to his long-run advantage to do so.  I’d bet my bottom dollar that he hasn’t because he thinks it’s likely that the Dems will handcuff themselves by leaving it in place if they get control.

    The Dems can repeal the filibuster, and pass shit that makes people’s lives better.  Or they can be ineffectual.

    If the former, yes, the GOP can repeal the stuff the Dems pass when they’re next in power.  But then they get their asses handed to them in the next election.

    But if the latter, they never get shit done in the first place, they get wiped out in the midterms (see 2010 and 1994), and they never build up any real support, because who’s going to support a party that doesn’t do shit for them?

    Seems pretty simple to me.

  117. 117.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    February 12, 2020 at 10:43 am

    @download my app in the app store mistermix:

    No group is a monolith. I’m not expecting all LGBTQ+ voters to flock to Pete.

    But his groundbreaking achievements matter historically, and give a lot of people hope. That’s what’s being erased or obscured by your whataboutism.

    Like I said, representation matters.

  118. 118.

    glory b

    February 12, 2020 at 10:43 am

    @Kay: This is exactly correct, and it’s what the Bernie people get wrong about black voters, young and old. THEY WANT A FAIR SHOT IN THIS SYSTEM, NOT A NEW ONE.

    I mentioned before that a number of my kids’ friends called me their “white Mom.” This is because I could help them figure out what to wear, how to speak, shake hands, and correct the grammar on their resumes and school papers, etc.

  119. 119.

    Eolirin

    February 12, 2020 at 10:43 am

    There’s a really huge difference between the Democratic primary and the Republican one that greatly diminishes Sander’s chances; every contest is proportional, instead of most of them being winner take all. He can’t follow the Trump play book and win outright with a plurality.

    Delegate counts are all that matter, not who “won” a contest. If things continue in the pattern of Iowa and NH, with moderates splitting the vote and Sanders coming out narrowly ahead in vote totals but equal or behind in delegates, he loses on the second ballot, because he can’t get over the delegate threshold with his current performance, and he’s not going to get the moderates or super delegates to back him. The only danger we have is if the moderate vote is split so much that none of the other candidates are hitting the 15% threshold.

  120. 120.

    rp

    February 12, 2020 at 10:46 am

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: True, and that’s clearly Pete’s model. But as many have pointed out, Obama didn’t have a lot of AA support early because they didn’t know him and didn’t think he had a realistic shot. But the opportunity was there. Pete doesn’t have the same upside, in part because, even if the LGBTQ community rallies around him the same way the AA community rallied around Obama, I’m not sure how many votes that represents.

  121. 121.

    glory b

    February 12, 2020 at 10:48 am

    @Geminid: He said he’s not a people person. Let’s believe him.

    This is also why I don’t think Sanders will do well with black voters. Lots of us are big on retail politics, we want you to come to the church services and sing with along with the hymns, accept hugs from old ladies, kiss babies, eat our auntie’s pound cake, etc. That’s why we support Biden. I think they may find Bernie uncomfortably standoffish.

  122. 122.

    low-tech cyclist

    February 12, 2020 at 10:51 am

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:Meanwhile, in actual voting, one candidate has beaten Bernie in one state, and tied him in the next. But these (actual) accomplishments are obscured in favor of shinier objects.

    Nope.  In actual voting, Bernie has a plurality in both states.  You’re confusing delegate counts with actual votes.

    And at this point, delegates are the shiny object.  Being ahead by 2 delegates at this point in the process is the equivalent of sinking the first bucket in an NBA basketball game.

    And there’s every reason to believe these were Pete’s two best states: for months, he’d been polling way better in IA and NH than nationally.  Maybe he can parlay success there into wins in other states (that was obviously his plan), but I’d cheerfully bet that it’s all downhill from here for him.

  123. 123.

    Chris Johnson

    February 12, 2020 at 10:54 am

    @Chyron HR: MetaPHORically, my dude. Metaphorically.

  124. 124.

    catclub

    February 12, 2020 at 10:57 am

    @zzyzx:I loved Klobucharge!

  125. 125.

    Ksmiami

    February 12, 2020 at 10:58 am

    @Kay: Bloomberg out -matching the entire GOP- that’s where I am- we need to take a blow torch and pliers to the opposition and Bloomberg  gets that.

  126. 126.

    Shalimar

    February 12, 2020 at 10:59 am

    Sanders isn’t winning the nomination with 25% of the vote.  Democratic primaries are not winner-take-all.  If Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren and Bloomberg stay in it to the end,  then the winner will be decided at the convention, and Sanders is not going to be the 2nd or 3rd choice of most of those delegates.  If 1, 2 or 3 of those drop out at some point . then whoever is left is the anti-Sanders candidate.

  127. 127.

    cindy

    February 12, 2020 at 11:02 am

    @Betty Cracker: also, last night on msnbc when showing the delegate counts for NH, they showed bernie, pete and amy as 1,2 and 3. in 4th place they showed biden, delegate count 0. Warren also earned 0 delegates, but she was  4th, with more votes thsn biden. Sheesh!

  128. 128.

    Fair Economist

    February 12, 2020 at 11:06 am

    As a gay man, I don’t get excited about Buttigieg’s candidacy because I feel like the war for acceptance is basically won. I talk freely, in Alabama, about my husband around my Mother’s Trumpster friends and my fundy SIL and there’s not even a peep of opposition. Many are even supportive.

    The country was not there with African-Americans in 2008 (still isn’t) so Obama’s candidacy had a lot of symbolic weight Buttigieg’s doesn’t.

  129. 129.

    Miss Bianca

    February 12, 2020 at 11:12 am

    @PST: I feel you. Mayor Pete is close to my *last* choice – just above Sanders, in fact – but the ways that Bernie’s disgusting followers are letting their inner Beavis-and-Butthead-freak-flags fly about his sexuality is making me want to puke even more than the usual cesspool dredgings that pass as their level of ‘thought’.

  130. 130.

    CindyH

    February 12, 2020 at 11:44 am

    @JMG: interesting – my LGBTQ relatives are split on Pete – some think he’s just like a republican.  The others are afraid of a backlash similar to Obama’s election that will set the LGBTQ back after coming so far.

  131. 131.

    Jinchi

    February 12, 2020 at 11:54 am

    @Shalimar: I don’t think we’re heading to a brokered convention and it’s a mistake to think that Bernie, or any of the other candidates  has hit their max, yet. We’ve started with a field of about 15 credible candidates down to seven pre-Iowa and we’ll probably have 3 or fewer before Super Tuesday. Voters are shifting organically as the race evolves, moving from favorite to second to third as candidates slip out of viability. I’m not sure where we’ll end up, but the nominee   will probably be pretty clear before the final votes are cast.

  132. 132.

    Mnemosyne

    February 12, 2020 at 12:47 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    As I’ve said before, I think that Bloomberg’s appeal for Black voters is his strong anti-gun stance. They’re willing to let bygones be bygones on stop and frisk if it means there will be far fewer guns on the street.

  133. 133.

    dww44

    February 12, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    @Kay: I think you’ve hit on something quite important here that perhaps we as Democrats as a whole haven’t fully kenned to.  We’d do well to remember this going forward.  Bernie in particular.

    There’s a sweetness there that kind of breaks my heart. They just want to be in on the secret. Crack the code.

    I think that is what Bernie misses – they don’t want to overturn the system. They want a place in it. I don’t think that’s an economic impulse of theirs, it’s not an embrace of markets or whatever. They want to belong where they want to go.

  134. 134.

    Another Scott

    February 12, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    @rp:

    Obama took the lead from Clinton in South Carolina polling in early December 2007.. (The Iowa Caucus was January 3, 2008.)

    Winning Iowa helped him in SC, no doubt, but the momentum was already there before Iowa.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  135. 135.

    Another Scott

    February 12, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    @low-tech cyclist:

    But as long as his devotion to combating climate change is real, and he’s willing to do whatever it takes to get his climate agenda through Congress, I’m willing to dance with this particular devil.

    No matter who is President or controls Congress (and the courts), 4 or 8 years isn’t going to fix climate change. We need intensive, decades long efforts. We’re 5% of the population – we can’t do it all on our own, either.

    We need Democratic majorities for decades if we want to make progress (as long as the GOP is insane, anyway).

    I’m not willing to make voting rights and all the rest secondary to a candidate’s stance on Climate Change. We can’t have a sustained effort if people can’t vote for their leaders, if they can’t earn enough to raise a family and not worry where the next dollar is coming from, if they can’t stay healthy, etc.

    Climate Change is important, but it’s not the only thing. I’d say, realistically, it’s not even the most important thing in this election. Voting Rights and the Rule of Law (including stare decisis and respect for norms) is #1 and #2 for me. If Democrats vote, Democrats win – if their votes are counted… The rest of the good stuff can follow pretty quickly after that.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  136. 136.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:  I forwarded your request to mistermix.

  137. 137.

    PJ

    February 12, 2020 at 2:16 pm

    @Geminid: who could have known that the man who never held a real job until he was 40 has no real interest in how working people feel about things.

  138. 138.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2020 at 2:22 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    I’ll drag my ass to the polls and vote for motherfucking Bloomberg. But I will never, not for one hot second, be “Bloomberg-curious,” more like “Bloomberg-resigned.”

    I feel you.  I am “Bloomberg horrified”.  I will get to “Bloomberg-resigned” if and only if it’s clear that there is no other choice.

  139. 139.

    PJ

    February 12, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    @dww44: this is Warren’s whole message – people want a fair shot at a good life in a system that isn’t rigged against them.  She believes in well-regulated markets, free higher education, universal health care.  In a corrupt system, like we have now, a few people scoop up all the rewards while most people scrape by, if that, but her solution is not to get rid of the system but to get rid of the corruption.

  140. 140.

    Morzer

    February 12, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    @PsiFighter37: I think it’s going to be very …interesting… to see just how well Klobuchar does once she’s outside the extremely white states.  She apparently doesn’t have much money, much less organization after the first 4 states. There are already some rumblings about her record as a prosecutor and distinct hints that part, at least, of the non-white community see her as no better than Buttigieg. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if her surge stalls out and even reverses. That said, if she’s a good enough candidate, she’ll find a way to deal with issues arising her past. If not, well, we’ll be hearing some variant of the “Amy K was a cop” narrative.

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