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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Apples-to-Oranges COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Wednesday / Thursday

Apples-to-Oranges COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Wednesday / Thursday

by Anne Laurie|  February 13, 20204:55 am| 6 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Foreign Affairs, Healthcare

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Official #COVID19 toll surpasses 60,000… pic.twitter.com/7eBUQPBvje

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) February 13, 2020

1. #COVID_19 Hubei province posts a huge number of new cases, nearly 15,000 in a day.
While that looks awful, it probably reflects broader testing that is capturing more mild cases. If that's the case, it will bring down the fatality rate, a good thing. https://t.co/jt6ZZEg1Nm

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 13, 2020

Coronavirus death toll leaps in China's Hubei province. Follow @Reuters liveblog for the latest developments around the new #coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/cEBwkoEQ5P pic.twitter.com/KsuJsRfRi9

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 13, 2020

Change in Hubei case reporting has made it next to impossible to track its coronavirus trend.

Here is what new confirmed cases would have looked like according to the old method (testing) vs new method (clinical diagnosis). On old basis it would have been another decline today. pic.twitter.com/4EIF4cCjC1

— Simon Rabinovitch (@S_Rabinovitch) February 13, 2020

Although the number of patients declined in some areas, the risk of increase still exists during the return travel peak from the long Spring Festival holiday: Zeng Guang, Chinese epidemiologist told Global Times Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin in an interview. pic.twitter.com/8iMRsKnnnx

— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) February 13, 2020


The @CDCgov reports a 14th US case of #COVID19 #coronavirus in one of the quarantined Americans evacuated from Wuhan

— Maggie Fox (@maggiemfox) February 13, 2020

Why is #COVID19 not SARS2? Sounds like China objected — though that may not be the only reason. @martinenserink on this week's naming confusion. https://t.co/z4kmgtA3VQ

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 13, 2020

1. #COVID19: Small bit of good news in a new study in @TheLancet. Chinese doctors reported on 9 women who contracted the disease in the 3rd trimester. All delivered by C-sections but none developed severe disease & their babies weren't infected. pic.twitter.com/Ytxe415XKM

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 12, 2020

Quick thread on the heels of my piece with @sciencecohen pointing out some of the challenges in diagnosing #COVID19 #2019nCovhttps://t.co/DjO7gTa02u

— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) February 12, 2020

Worker shortages, transport disruption, a lack of medical supplies and heavy-handed local officials as the coronavirus spreads are all making life difficult for businesses, the Chinese government said https://t.co/1OBe44m1P5

— CNN International (@cnni) February 12, 2020

Oil tankers are idling off the Chinese coast for four times longer than normal, a sign of just how much coronavirus has crimped demand https://t.co/oy9TNwGiwc

— Bloomberg (@business) February 13, 2020

“…manufacturing a copycat to a patent-protected med at scale without any license is an unusual move that could revive concerns about the protection of (IP in China)”

I did not expect #COVID19 #nCoV2019 stories to overlap with IP piracy stories but hello 2030, here we are. https://t.co/s1xdXJUHqM

— Maryn McKenna (@marynmck) February 13, 2020

In which @HelenBranswell will teach you a heckuva lot about pandemics: What they mean, what they don't, and how to tell if we're in one with the new #coronavirus. https://t.co/YfQRZa1Uda

— Jason Ukman (@JasonUkman) February 12, 2020

Missed this last week by @Ethnography911:

"The lessons of SARS from 2003, and from the more recent West African Ebola crisis just haven’t stuck." https://t.co/zkKPiq93hD

— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) February 12, 2020

I wrote with @T_Inglesby about what data is needed to prepare for the new coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/mfWFzwSMXs

— Caitlin Rivers (@cmyeaton) February 11, 2020

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6Comments

  1. 1.

    Rusty

    February 13, 2020 at 5:18 am

    The diagnosis number is way up given the change in methodology ( which seems more practical), but also 254 deaths. That is a very large jump in fatalities.  Not sure where this puts the fatality rate and if there can be any accurate calculation given the bouncing numbers.  It does belie any optimistic reports of slowing.

  2. 2.

    R-Jud

    February 13, 2020 at 5:28 am

    We now have a case confirmed in London. Hopefully none of the other passengers on the woman’s flight to Heathrow were infected.

  3. 3.

    WaterGirl

    February 13, 2020 at 6:46 am

    @R-Jud:

    Hopefully none of the other passengers on the woman’s flight to Heathrow were infected.

    Sadly, that seems unlikely.

  4. 4.

    Cermet

    February 13, 2020 at 7:10 am

    As they discover more people with that flu (better testing) the vast majority are mild. Not underplaying how deadly this flu is to older people but this flu isn’t SARs.  On a far more scary note, this death rate is not unlike the 1918 flu (from the WP.) However, that flu targeted healthy people.

    We can only hope that China holds the line and this doesn’t burn through the world nor start up again next fall (assuming it doesn’t continue through spring/summer – that would be unique and guarantee that flu this sweeps the world.)

    Still, they will develop a vaccine at some point this year.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 13, 2020 at 8:28 am

    Most of the jump are formerly suspect cases now shifted to confirmed, under the new methodology, where a combination of travel history, exposure to confirmed or suspect cases, symptoms, and CT scan can result in confirmation by doctor’s diagnosis. The stock of suspect cases in China has been declining rapidly, now at 13K, compared to 30K just 4 days ago, even with ~ 3K new suspect cases identified per day. The optimistic read is that the 15K jump represents clearing of the “inventory” in Hubei, and thus a one time event (perhaps with a tail tomorrow), and not a new baseline. With the new methodology, we should expect a higher daily increase in confirmed cases, as the previous methodology of was constrained by availability of test kits. Not surprised at the jump in deaths, the difference is the kind of cases where people were dying before a chance for confirmation. This may represent a new baseline.

    Note that the new methodology applies to Hubei province only, but other province may not have the challenges associated with confirming suspect cases by test kit. Now, I would expect the majority of the suspect cases in Hubei and rest of China may be suffering other contagious diseases. I have seen news reports of hundreds of suspect cases being cleared a day at some location or another, But I have not seen the Comprehensive data on clearing suspect cases conveniently compiled and updated anywhere.

    Anyway, it is always better to have data that more accurately captures reality, no matter how ugly. It is also a reminder that no matter what one thinks of the CCP regime and the quality of data out of China, one should not just credulously accept whatever claims or narratives that criticizes or questions the regime and its actions. Just yesterday, a claim were making the rounds on western social media and news outlets that China was redefining the methodology for categorizing confirmed cases to suppress the numbers. It was based on a poor quality report from Apple Daily (a Hong Kong tabloid as well known for its yellow journalism as for the anti-CCP stance of its owner) that completely misrepresented the Chinese government document source material.

    In other news, the CCP regime just sacked and replaced the Party Secretaries of Wuhan city and Hubei Province. Long overdue in IMO. The Japanese seems to only have conducted 336 tests for COVID-19 , and found 135 positives. Even understanding that those with symptoms and at higher risk have been tested first, I shutter to think about the current and future infection rate on the ship. Apparently one of the Japanese personnel conducting the tests has also been infected.

  6. 6.

    MoCA Ace

    February 13, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    @Cermet: You display your willful ignorance by continuing to call it the Flu, even after having it explained to you multiple times.  Enjoy your Pie!

    That was kinda fun… never pied anyone before.

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