COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Tuesday / Wednesday

7Comments

1. 1.

   JPL

   February 19, 2020 at 6:41 am

   I hope that Qian  keeps us updated about the conditions in Wuhan.

2. 2.

   Barbara

   February 19, 2020 at 6:46 am

   Two percent would be a high death rate for something so contagious. I suspect it is considerably lower because people with mild symptoms don’t seek care, but that does mean once you have discernible symptoms there is a non-trivial chance of serious illness that appears to have pneumonia type effects.

3. 3.

   Geminid

   February 19, 2020 at 6:49 am

   Thank you for the post.

4. 4.

   Baud

   February 19, 2020 at 6:56 am

   Coronavirus is keeping both energy demand and industrial output at a record low, which means a reduction in carbon emissions

   Presaging one of the key planks of the Baud! 2020! Green Great Society plan to address climate change.

5. 5.

   YY_Sima Qian

   February 19, 2020 at 7:02 am

   Yesterday, all Chinese provinces ex-Hubei had single digit increases in new confirmed cases, most of them low single digits. 8 provinces and Macau showed 0 new cases. For the first time ever, the total number of people under treatment decreased (by 211) in China, meaning sum of recoveries + deaths was greater than the number of new cases. Hopefully this is the start of a trend that shows the overall stress on the medical system in China is peaking. I don’t see the under treatment data broken down by province and city published anywhere, though I am sure the data is available somewhere, but I am sure that number is still increasing in Wuhan. The stock of suspect cases have been dropping rapidly as well, from nearly 30K 10 days ago to just over 5K cases now. That indicates the authorities, even in Wuhan, are able to process much more quickly the undetermined cases to confirm or clear, which is the first step toward getting the people with COVID-19 at least some medical treatment, especially to prevent people with moderate symptoms from worsening to severe or critical. Mild cases do not necessarily need much medical intervention. It is also the first step toward data reflecting reality.

   Epidemics developing a new peak is indeed a worry. On the other hand, 100 million migrants did return to work (or at least the places they work) since 2/10, and there has been barely a blip in daily increase of new cases in China ex-Hubei. If the places where the migrants are coming from are essentially COVID-19 free, then the migrants would not be bringing the disease to their destinations. Furthermore, Hubei has traditionally been a large source of migrants labor, millions of would be returnees will remain under lock down for a while. I think the trends in China ex-Hubei has been very encouraging, and have been sustained for several days. I doubt the Chinese government will suddenly open the flood gates, just steadily widening the stream. All of these travel restrictions and lock downs are indeed unsustainable, but I think it could be sustained for a couple of more weeks ex-Hubei.

   Even within Hubei, the increase in new cases have significantly dropped in most cities ex-Wuhan. I could foresee a phased lifting of lock downs in Hubei, as cities show they are new case free for a period of time. Unfortunately, Wuhan’s liberation is probably at least six weeks away… Universities and K-12 education systems in China ex-Hubei have already given internal guidance that school is to resume in late Mar. That is an indication of the Chinese government’s assessment of where things are heading. No guidance yet for Wuhan. My WAG is resuming classes in early May, if everything goes well, and students will take spring and fall semesters back to back, no summer break! :-0

   With all the migrant labor yet to return, factories across China are facing dire shortages. Local governments of the manufacturing centers (mostly along the coast) have had to be very creative to facilitate and support the local enterprises. They are going to inland provinces like Sichuan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui to look for and sign up available labor, and hook them up directly with the key enterprises. Local governments are taking the responsibility to test the potential workers (not just temperature, but by test kit!), and arranging transportation to ship them directly to the factory dormitories, to minimize potential for infection en route. That suggests test kit availability is no longer an issue in China, so perhaps China can spare Japan a few thousand kits?

   The CCP regime is really exercising its muscles for organization, mobilization, control and regimentation, muscle that has not had to be exercises at such scale since before the start of the Reforms. Not in Xinjiang, not in Tibet, not during the post-Tiananmen months. This is a hint of what China on war footing looks like. Fully justified under the current public health emergency, IMO. We will see, as the emergency passes, how much of it might become the new normal…

6. 6.

   YY_Sima Qian

   February 19, 2020 at 9:57 am

   Just checked the data out of China yesterday again. The every province ex-Hubei, and every city in Hubei ex-Wuhan, posted drops in the number of active cases. Wuhan saw an increase of 868 in total active cases, 1660 new cases. So the situation in Wuhan remains serious. One hopes that the continued large increase in Wuhan is at least in part due to the blanket efforts to find infected persons among the population, and it would start to drop significantly in the coming days. The other cities in Hubei has posted bumps in new cases in the past couple of days, due to similar efforts there.

7. 7.

   ziggy

   February 19, 2020 at 10:15 am

   Sounds like good news overall, it will be interesting to watch what happens over the next week or so, if this trend continues.