The @TheNVIndy team has spread out across the state to cover today's Democratic presidential caucus. Here's our constantly-updating live blog for updates & news out of the caucus https://t.co/1YSA0QPOGb
— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) February 22, 2020
Random scenes from the sausage factory. For some reason, seems like it was easier for reporters to visit Las Vegas in February than Iowa…
‘All hands on deck:’ Nevada Democrats process tens of thousands of early votes, host trainings ahead of Saturday caucus
Via @meganmesserly https://t.co/C1y9pSKh1R
— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) February 22, 2020
I represent one of the most diverse districts in the country and I know that @JoeBiden will continue to build the broad and diverse coalition necessary to beat Trump in November. pic.twitter.com/a6UV2LiMpF
— Dina Titus (@dinatitus) February 22, 2020
Well! It is already not Iowa. Results starting to trickle in. https://t.co/Hjyi0xVuRU
— Megan Messerly (@meganmesserly) February 22, 2020
You may be seeing a lot of numbers out there. Remember they are very early — 2-4 percent. But it’s pretty clear that Bernie is going to win big and that the others will be grasping for spin.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 22, 2020
Still early, but @DecisionDeskHQ is the best. These guys are smart, and this outcome is possible. No one but Bernie can claim momentum out of here if he wins by 2 to 1. Margin of Bernie’s victory key to post-NV narrative. https://t.co/G7gzMJKG5C
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 22, 2020
Nevada Democrats ask volunteers to sign non-disclosure agreements ahead of caucus
Via @meganmesserly https://t.co/XlmltTlCij
— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) February 21, 2020
This is a good account to follow. Real totals. Very early. https://t.co/ReH4nBnKDS
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 22, 2020
The Warren camp appears to have convinced the lone Steyer supporter to join them, which would make their group viable. “Tom Steyer has been working in this community for a long time… and he’s a really good guy,” the Warren precinct captain tells him.
— Megan Messerly (@meganmesserly) February 22, 2020
So far 4/6 precincts have calculated and awarded delegates—so far 31 have been awarded to @JoeBiden, 19 to @BernieSanders, 10 to @TomSteyer and 5 to @PeteButtigieg.
— Shannon Miller (@shmiller9315) February 22, 2020
Because she represents MASSACHUSETTS:
The senator’s donuts of choice: Dunkin pic.twitter.com/3kYBiuJ09g
— Jacob Solis (@jacobsolisnv) February 22, 2020
While you wait for caucus results check out these incredible photos https://t.co/fEWQMZIxy7
— Tabitha Mueller (@tabitha_mueller) February 22, 2020
NEW on volunteer turnout: Per party, their reports are showing an average of eight volunteers showed up to each caucus site, or about 2,000 volunteers across the state. And as of a half hour ago, more than 1,000 volunteers had already logged into the caucus calculator.
— Megan Messerly (@meganmesserly) February 22, 2020
Buttigieg’s two supporters in this room have literally left the building, refusing to join another viable candidate. The lone Steyer supporter is right now telling Bernie’s representative that he’d rather vote for Trump than Bernie. pic.twitter.com/smQk6T4IfQ
— Philip Crowther (@PhilipinDC) February 22, 2020
Important note at the bottom of this rule guide: “… the tie will be decided with a game of chance using a deck of cards. The highest card drawn will win.”
In other words, a very appropriate way to decide a tie in Las Vegas. #NevadaCaucus pic.twitter.com/HG6Bb8oEw8
— Jackie Valley (@JackieValley) February 22, 2020
The walls of the caucus room are a patchwork of campaign signs from all candidates EXCEPT @amyklobuchar, @MikeBloomberg and @TulsiGabbard whose signs are not yet in sight. Campaigners are speaking with voters before the caucus, which will be called to session no earlier than 12pm pic.twitter.com/uJqiKy6R0T
— Shannon Miller (@shmiller9315) February 22, 2020
NEW: @NVDems say they have processed all ~75,000 early vote ballots as caucuses begin in a few hours. "Massive turnout, particularly on the final day of early voting, has meant lots of time-consuming data entry,” @MBForgey says.
— Emily Glazer (@EmilyGlazer) February 22, 2020
These are the 16-year-old precinct chairs. They’re volunteers from this high school. pic.twitter.com/TCkWi8gsHQ
— Philip Crowther (@PhilipinDC) February 22, 2020
Adelson’s paper tracking the big news, as always. https://t.co/kFKPXBYQo3
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 22, 2020
The geography of the Democratic caucus and why some campaigns are rallying supporters in rural Nevada
Via @danielrothberg https://t.co/6SLOqm1vX6
— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) February 22, 2020
So… Sanders is going to win this one, and it’s not going to be very close. The question is whether it will be a “small” 10-ish point win, or a 20+ point shellacking.
Time for a few candidates to get out of the way if we want the nominee to be somebody other than Sanders as the nominee. Because he’s suddenly got a very good shot at taking South Carolina next week as well (538 has him statistically tied with Biden there). If all of the six leading candidates are still running on Super Tuesday, I don’t see how Sanders doesn’t take this thing.
@janesays: I assume Amy will be out.
Amy should be out. And I really like her. The problem is that nobody else is likely to drop.
The results from this are going to rule so hard
Agreed that Klobuchar should quit, but honestly, that won’t be enough. The support among the not-Bernie candidates is spread out too thin. I think if Warren finishes fourth tonight, she needs to bow out as well. She’s not going to be the nominee if she doesn’t finish better than third in any of the first three and fourth in two of the first three. Bloomberg should too, but he won’t.
I don’t know whether Sanders will “win” the Nevada Caucus, but even if he does well, I will want to know if he has expanded his base.
In a nutshell, Sanders has to do well with 2016 Clinton supporters.
From 2016 results:
And of course, it will be interesting to see how the other candidates do as well. But it’s about more than just who ends up with more delegates here.
Mai naem mobile
This is awful. Trying hard not to freak out. I just feel this fucking election is the Dems to lose and they’re working really hard just to do that. Also WTF why does Sanders not even have to switch party registration to.run in the Dem primary. Also fuck Sanders for 2016.
The debate came too late to affect the NV results very much, what with all the early voting.
I assume there will be some attrition, but I think we very well might still have several candidates to chose from even after 3/3.
I’m in no hurry to demand that people get out, myself.
It’s still early™. ;-)
I would like to see everyone hang on through the March 3 primaries.
West of the Rockies
Why isn’t it clear to everyone that Gabbard is pure grift at this point?
Pete and Amy and Warren and Biden are swimming in muddy water. If 3 got out, one would catch up to and, I think, surpass Sanders.
That should be a universal sentiment.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
a word of caution about DecisionDesk. I watched them closely in 2016 and they had a number of incorrect projections. That’s not to say this projection is wrong, but to say take it with a grain of salt.
@Another Scott: I am not sure why everyone is such a hurry to call it over. I anticipate a long process.
Amy and the billionaires should drop out. Biden, Pete, Warren, and Bernie would be a decent contest.
This country is so misogynist.
I hope you sunny optimists are right.
Mai naem mobile
I don’t care for Kornacki. It’s like he’s decided to go the way of Chuck Todd except Chuck Todd didn’t get to current Kornacki level well into when it was likely he would take over for Russert.
Democratic voters are going to kill us, aren’t they?
What a terrible result if Sanders is the nominee. I’ll declare myself an independent as I have no desire to belong to a party that would be dumb enough to nominate Sanders.
Mai naem mobile
@zhena gogolia: yep its the combo of the old farts and the young incels.
Democratic voters are going to kill us, aren’t they?
What a terrible result if Sanders isn’t the nominee. I’ll declare myself and independent as I have no desire to belong to a party that would be dumb enough to not nominate Sanders.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Until I saw these results, I didn’t realize how frightened I am that Sanders will be the nominee. My biggest fear is that he can’t win.
O. Felix Culpa
@guachi: I’m depressed too, but what do you mean by the party? Are you referring to the organization or the voters?
@anarchoRex: Yeah. Let’s nominate the guy who’s so bad at knowing what American voters in swing districts want that his PAC went 0-22 in the 2018 elections. And these were elections that saw the biggest blue wave in over 40 years.
That’s terrible. Democratic candidates in swing districts are going to run very hard away from Sanders if he’s the nominee. I would. He’s deadly to Democrats.
@anarchoRex: He’s gonna cost us 40 fucking states and the House, and fuckwits like you will never admit you were wrong to back him.
@Citizen Alan: Lmao, ok, which 40 states is he gonna lose?
I’m a sunny pessimist.
Your name: is it for anarchist rules?
Because that cannot work one bit with a sophisticated, integrated, and modern society like our own.
I understand that you are from Texas, and may feel that you have very little to lose.
Not so, the rest of us.
From what I see from people who know this stuff, it looks like Bernie is going to win big, which is weird because of all that fight with the Culinary union. But didn’t the 2016 early reports indicate that Bernie was the winner but then Hillary ended up winning? He’d probably win but it might not be as big as they’re projecting now.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
In 2016, Sanders was 13-2 in caucuses and 9-26 in primaries.
In the 2 caucuses he lost, Iowa and Nevada, he still received 49.6% and 47.3% of the vote, respectively.
West of the Rockies
Putin wants Bernie to face Trump. Because. Bernie. Will. Lose.
@West of the Rockies:
I’ve been begging someone to go to one of her events and ask her a question — I hope someone here can do so if her event is nearby.
She is either is looking to be a spoiler against the Dem nominee or wants VP to Bernie. We need someone to get her on record (with video) answering something like this: “why are you competing against Bernie given your past support of him and why do you think you’d be a better president than Bernie?” Basically we need to get her on video attacking Bernie. Maybe feed her a bit about some past AUMF (2001?) that he supported, or whatever.
We need to put daylight between her and Bernie now, not a few months from now, so that his supporters don’t wander off regardless of who wins the nomination. If she doesn’t have to answer this, and she doesn’t get picked by Bernie for VP (if he’s the nominee), she’ll lead her own purity brigade and turn 5-10% of the Berners against him for insufficient purity. If he isn’t the nominee then she will take 5-10% of the Berners with her since the nominee won’t be sufficiently pure. Win win for her, lose lose for the country.
O. Felix Culpa
@Brachiator: I’m a depressed optimist. The non-Bernie candidates have a serious collective action problem now. If they don’t agree on a favored candidate and throw their support to that one SOON, then Bernie wins by virtue of too many egos in the room. In the same manner as Trump in 2016.
@Elizabelle: He’s the king of shit-stirrers. I’m not sure why people respond to him. He announces in his name that he’s just here for trolling entertainment.
Mike in DC
I expect Klobuchar to drop out before 3/3. Steyer should drop out if he’s not top 3 in SC. Gabbard is a complete non-factor here.
Biden should drop out if he’s not 2nd here, and if he loses SC as well. Warren should only drop out if she’s not in the top 4 on Super Tuesday. Ditto for Pete–only drop out if you’re not top 4.
Bloomberg should absolutely fold his cards if he’s outside the top 4 on Super Tuesday.
The optimal “final four” here is Bernie, Liz, Joe and Pete. Bernie, Liz and Pete would be an acceptable final three.
@Shalimar: What I think too. Gonna ignore him/it.
Call me in the morning.
@OzarkHillbilly: What’s your number?
Get a grip folks. I support Warren but there is a high chance that Sanders will be the nominee. If he is, then you will need to accept that (as unhappy as that may be). Hell, at least that would solve the problem of a lot of his supporters threatening (or worse) to sit out the general.
I honestly have no idea how reality plays out between now & November. All I know is that I am pledged to do what I can to try to elect as many D’s as possible this year.
Will it be enough? No idea. But I’ve also already considered an election where Trump wins. And you know what, if that happens I’ll keep fighting to my last breath.
Sorry if that sounds grim & I do sympathize with folks worrying & fears.
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: this time he might sweep all the upcoming primaries, except maybe South Carolina. It looks like the dem voters learned the wrong lesson: don’t vote for women candidates. And it looks like the ratfucking has damaged Biden. But also, Biden is a terrible campaigner.
wasn’t it just earlier this week that Bllomberg was “surging” and a threat to buy the nomination based on national poll trending.
one debate later and he’s been apparently torpedoed just as he walked on to the stage… here, we have yet another caucus where Sanders excels due to the nature of the beast, but in contests where votes are actually tallied and matter more than any other methodology, he doesn’t thrive. Yet, despite that, we’re supposed to shiv our preferred candidate because she hasn’t efficiently multi-tasked the demise of our least preferred candidate..
What the fuck is this Would you support socialism? ad. Pictures of BS, AOC, Ilhan Omar and….Adam Schiff?
W. T. A. F?
@Anya: Without fucking Bernie and his rabid supporters, we could have been talking, constantly, about Hillary besting Trump by 3 million plus votes.
And the narrowest of margins in the swing states, with massive voter suppression.
But no — the name Hillary Clinton is mentioned and people — including journalists — rise up to eviscerate her again. Unpopular candidate with terrible campaign. Conventional wisdom, but not what actually happened.
We pay a terrible, terrible price to assuage Saint Bernie’s massive ego. And more so, that of his immature and unrealistic supporters.
@Citizen Alan: @Elizabelle: @Shalimar:
I’m just keeping a tally of how many people respond to my comment and skip right over the comment just two above it expressing the exact same sentiment but in the opposite direction. Clearly my comment was a satire of theirs.
Should I take two aspirin in the meantime?
James E Powell
@Mai naem mobile:
I feel like that every time. I’ve never fully recovered from 1978-1980.
O. Felix Culpa
@dexwood: I’m thinking two glasses of wine. One for the right hand and one for the left.
Mine alternates. Its either “Investigate Hunter Biden” or “build a diamond ring. “
@James E Powell: Damn, I’ve felt like this since 1968.
Get used to it. It’s gonna be Bernie’s party, which means we all get to be socialists no matter what. I expect Manchin to be called a socialist, assuming Fucking Bernie winning isn’t enough for him to switch parties.
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Compared to last time, he’s up seven plus pts. Considering the bickering with the others, it’s not surprising. He ran strong against HIllary with not as much money, so I’m not surprised. It is time to decide who drops out and throws their support to someone else. Egos can not get in the way I should add but they will.
@O. Felix Culpa: If you chug the bottle you will always have a free hand.
@anarchoRex: I saw both comments. I just didn’t find your “satire” funny. I never find you funny. Just snide, condescending and borderline delusional.
“The lone Steyer supporter” Ouch.
@mrmoshpotato: Adam Schiff’s not a socialist, he’s a pretty mainstream Democrat. In his early years in the House he was even pretty blue doggy.
@piratedan: Agreed. Sanders does well in caucuses. Sanders did well in the state next door to his. Now the process will be moving away from his strengths. Let’s see what happens.
Well this is terrible.
@O. Felix Culpa:
Again, I think that Sanders has to do more than win enough delegates to cause a muddle. He has to show that his base of support is expanding.
Also, I don’t see many comparisons to Trump and 2016. Trump knocked some favorites out early (remember Jeb!) and slowly dominated the GOP field.
It is early and Sanders has not done anything yet.
@Elizabelle: this is why I will never forgive Bernie. Ever. He cemented in the minds of voters Hillary was a crook or a neoliberal corporate shill. He convinced a generation of young voters that there is no difference between the Dem Party and the party of voter suppression, gun over people, open racism and corporate greed.
@Brachiator: Also, with the comparison to Trump’s run in the Republican primaries in 2016, keep in mind that many of the Republican primaries were winner-take-all affairs. That enabled Trump to consolidate his delegate lead pretty quickly.
@Omnes Omnibus: it’s game over, if he wins California. By all indications he’s poised to win big.
Trump’s success was lumpy. There were impressive primary wins:
And yet in the end, Trump’s victory was hardly a total triumph:
He was an unpopular winner. Nothing has much changed for him.
@Citizen Alan: Just borderline? I should try harder to get the full unqualified delusional next time.
MSNBC just called it for Sanders.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I know that. I was criticizing the stupid ad.
(I don’t mean to sound angry.) :)
@Brachiator: My point was that it allowed him to become the nominee quicker and possible avoid a brokered convention.
I’ve felt like this since 1968
Could NOT believe that sentient adults would not vote to shut down the Viet Nam war, and then could further not believe that sentient adults could possibly vote for Nixon.
I’ll just leave it at this – Tom Perez has been a fucking disaster at the DNC
@mrmoshpotato: They’re talking about my Congresscritter there.
38% of the delegates will have been awarded by the end of Super Tuesday.
38% < 50% + 1 (= 3979/2 = 1990)
Don't panic. The process has to play itself out, and nothing is pre-ordained.
“But I was told that the Democratic Establishment would be rigging it against Bernie!”
@OzarkHillbilly: Hello, In The Morning.
@Ksmiami: I can’t think of many things he’s done well.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: The ad is targeted at people who haven’t any idea what socialism actually is and just use it as a generic insult. Reminds me of the ads in BJ’s earlier days when it was still on Pajamas Media. Well, it would if I wasn’t blocking them.
@OzarkHillbilly: Only if you change your nym.
Why is James Carville is still invited on TV to opine on Dem related topics? Wasn’t he doing some sort of consulting work with his loathsome wife?
both Carville and Chris Matthews need to STFU.
@MagdaInBlack: Build a diamond ring? A diamond smuggling ring?
@Anya: (As I said in another reply eaten by FYWP…)
Only 38% of delegates will have been awarded by the end of Super Tuesday. And St. Bernard won’t have won all of them.
We need to let the process play out and not panic. The future is not pre-ordained.
Sanders has about one-third of the votes. That’s not enough to get him the nomination, and considering how he’s alienating moderates, he won’t be getting many more votes.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I know that. You’ve mentioned it before. I’m not really sure what the point of this back and forth is. It was an ad that I thought was stupid and factually wrong.
I would like to see this from Another Scott as a rotating tag. (Yes, I know it’s too long.)
Also that Democratic delegates are assigned proportionally, unlike Republicans, who have state winner-take-all.
Bernie is the path to disaster even if he wins against Trump (very unlikely, but let’s give him the puncher’s chance that was enough for Apeshit Agent Orange). He’ll be isolated, ineffectual, ranting and raging and blaming everyone but himself. He’ll damage the Democrats just to protect his own miserable ego – and the result will be the Republicans taking the White House with a smarter version of Trump, plus the House and the Senate.
And you both agree about Adam Schiff.
@Baud: 1 800 fuck you. Not you in particular, just a generic fuck you.
When picking smuggling rings, go diamond. Do not in any circumstances pick bronze.
Today’s 2020 firsts: use of sunscreen, long bike ride (kid’s longest ever), use of screen doors. I remember when February was considered “winter.” And it also rained. Feh.
@dexwood: I prefer smack.
1. Why does a bullfrog have wine?
2. Why is it fine wine?
(This is related to nothing but Three Dog Night running through my head.)
Gonna be wild when the Democratic convention consists of a week of the nominee telling 2/3 of the people there to fuck off and die.
@anarchoRex: May I suggest a nice pie for everyone instead of taking the bait of this one.
@guachi: the organization is basically defunct and completely emasculated under his non leadership
@OzarkHillbilly: Would you settle for slap?
@trollhattan: What about a counterfeit jeans ring operating out of my carhole?
@Chyron HR: And all the while his supporters will be claiming that the DNC rigged the whole thing because everyone knows that He Of Vermont has 100% support.
The dream will never die.
Caucuses suck. In 2018 Virginia Democrats flipped three Congressional seats with candidates who won primaries. In the 7th district primary Abigail Spanberger and her closest of four opponents had 55,000 votes between them. In the 5th district, where I now live, less than 7,000 caucus goers picked a mediocre candidate who lost the general against a newcomer by 7 points. This year 5th district Democrats will have a primary in June, and the dumbass Republicans are going the caucus route. A good pickup opportunity- if there is someone solid at the top of the ticket.
Next up: tamborines and elephants…..I always assumed psychoactives were involved.
I can’t think that far ahead. I’m clinging to Another Scott’s comment for dear life.
@mrmoshpotato: 1. Don’t be froggist.
2. He has good taste.
@Morzer: 125% support because He’s so dreamy, and free healthcare, and college, and unicorns and puppies.
@Morzer: I expect Warren will work very hard for Sanders if he is the nominee. Lap dog that I am (so jealous of Bailey!) I will follow her lead.
@MagdaInBlack: Ok! (fires up the series of YouTubes)
ETA – weird that it’s impossible for me to get “home from Illinois”
Bernie is a health disaster waiting to happen. I don’t understand why that gets swept under the rug. He’s already had a heart attack, he’s old and very, very red in the face, and his character and manner of speaking are anything but calm.
So, let me see if I have this right.
in 2016, the Republicans had a choice between a Clown and whole bunch of non-clowns and somehow the clown won enough to get nominated (and somehow won)…
…and now, 4 years later, the Democrats have a choice between a Clown and a whole bunch of non-clowns…
…and we might end up in the General with Clown vs. Clown? I’m sorry, convince me the system isn’t horribly broken. That Democratic Establishment BS decries better stand up and prevent a catastrophe.
People are either very happy that an old white man in their late 70s will become president granddaddy and give them all the presents that they want for their birthday, or scared that an old white man in their late 70s will become president granddaddy and not be able to get shit done.
It’s making for an extremely long and rather crappy election debacle with only a slight promise that all of the above will be wrong. I can see why people are nervous.
Wow. Since you put it that way… Wait. I still prefer a Sanders win to any continuation of the nightmare that is the Trump presidency.
I do not think that Sanders will be the candidate. But I will get in the face of any fool who says, “Well, I don’t know if I can support this nominee.” And this will go double for any simpleton Bernie bros insisting that their guy wuz robbed if Sanders is not the nominee.
We need to dump Trump.
Well I would have used fucking hell rather than christ almighty but otherwise, nice.
He has the best health! Believe him!
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
With me, followed closely by the possibility that he can. It would be a huge missed opportunity to escape through a closing window, to mashup some metaphors.
@zhena gogolia: I think it’s worth reminding people that all Sanders has to offer is a Revolution to Nowhere. He doesn’t have enough support among the Democrats to get anything passed (and that’s assuming that the Democrats take the Senate, which ain’t happening with Wilmer at the top of the ticket). What happens when none of the unicorns materialize? Someone has to be blamed and Sanders has been eager to blame the Democrats for all the world’s woes. He even wanted to primary Obama, for heaven’s sake!
Biden is done. He may do something in South Carolina but at best he will have underperformed.
Biden’s history is he has been a terrible presidential candidate. He has only won Delaware. Small Delaware as a Senator. Now that is something but he is the good soldier, not the lead dog.
Folks thought he had a shot this year and even in 2016 due to being Obama’s loyal soldier but even that is not enough to get him in the top three in the Iowa/NH. Trump is a disaster and should be ripe for an ass kicking in November but for that reason, we had 20+ people make a run. That divides up money and support and votes. Sanders had the benefit of his die hard base from 2016 and has something like 25 to 33% support. If the field thins, sooner rather than later, someone else could take the lead from him. If all of the others stick around, the longer they do, the more inevitable Bernie becomes.
For what it’s worth, I am a Warren supporter. Early voting has started in Texas and the only reason I haven’t voted yet is I need to research the down ballot candidates to ensure I am not supporting a crackpot or a Larouche candidate.
I had pretty much given up on the pie filter. Was leaning towards actually listening to what everyone says. But there is just too much bullshit flowing out of some keyboards these days that it just isn’t worth the time and effort. So I’m going back to using the pie filter for the absolute offenders.
Pie Filter is +1
Still waiting on sending in my CA vote by mail ballot. When’s the SC primary? I’m leaning Warren but will switch to Biden if I think he’s more likely to contend with Sanders- although it’s not looking that way
That’s the part some of us are pushing back against. But I starting to think I have better things to do this evening.
@Brachiator: My fear is that 4 disastrous years of Sanders would get us a smarter, meaner version of Trump and a Republican party back in control of the House and the Senate. Yes, I want Trump gone yesterday, imprisoned and awaiting his trial for treason, but it’s very clear that Trumpism won’t die once the vile creature is removed. The only way to destroy it is for the Democrats to win – and then get things done for the American people, while simultaneously burning the Trump crime organization to the ground and salting the ashes.
@mrmoshpotato: Songwriters sometimes have a melody written but they don’t have lyrics figured out yet. Often they will come up with “placeholder” lyrics so as to help them remember the melody. Sometimes, these lyrics ultimately find their way into the song. IIRC I believe Jeremiah was one of those.
(Can anybody guess which song originally had the lyrics,
Oo-ee baby how I love your legs!)
@OzarkHillbilly: Two junkie roommates in 1971 taught me to hate the drug and what it turned people into. To me, kinda feels like what all true believers, Bernie, Trump, phony christians live with and push on others. Wiser man than me was fond of saying fuck ’em.
O. Felix Culpa
@John Revolta: Beatles Yesterday?
@Ocotillo: I am not so sure that Biden’s done just yet. He seems to be claiming 2nd in Nevada. Pair that with a win in South Carolina and he’s got every reason to stay in through Super Tuesday. Klobuchar ought to quit – but is apparently claiming to have exceeded expectations (whatever that means) so probably won’t, while Steyer has no business being in this race to start with (but won’t quit either).
@O. Felix Culpa: We have a winner!
Another example of placeholders that found their way in: When McCartney was playing “Hey Jude” for Lennon, he got to the line “The movement you need is on your shoulders” and he said “Don’t worry, I’ll fix that later” and Lennon said “Like Hell you will, that’s the best line in the whole song!”
@Another Scott: thank you, Scott. I am just going to come to terms with a sanders win so I can deal with the stages of grief before the convention. It’ll make it easy for me to fully get behind the nominee as soon as the primaries are concluded.
O. Felix Culpa
@John Revolta: [Takes a very ‘umble bow.]
The scansion led to that song. Thanks for a fun game!
@Morzer: he’ll still be million times better than Trump.
@Anya: I am not behind Bernie. He will cost us the House.
If he thought he had problems with the Democratic establishment, and with Democrats, he is about to learn just how bad.
Saw some photos. He is so red, as you have all been mentioning. Hmmmm….
@Ksmiami: I don’t think he’s been a disaster, but I really think that Mayor Pete should have been selected for that.
OK. Bloomberg it is. I’m in the anyone but Bernie camp because he will lose in November and we can’t afford 4 more years of Trump. My billionaire autocrat is better than your “billionaire” autocrat.
I’ll keep sending money to Warren, Mayor Pete and Biden, but if Bloomberg is the candidate, I can use my money for Senate elections.
I do not understand the appeal of a 78 year old, infirm, shouty, thin skinned, man with no chance of accomplishing anything. Someone explain it to me, please.
Aside from everything else, it’s good to remember that 45 is incredibly weak and is highly likely to lose even against Sanders. Incumbents with his numbers (and ignore puke polls like Rasmussen who consistently give Republicans better numbers than other ones) don’t get re-elected. His base is not that big, no matter how much the media tries to portray it, and very few people outside that group want him back for another term. People like that do vote for even flawed challengers in the end- see Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan (seen as too conservative). Only disenfranchisement and disinformation can save 45
@Anya: There are small pieces of dung floating down the Mississippi that can claim as much.
I want to see a short list of vice presidents for each candidate over 70, as I think it a better than average chance that will come into play.
Head strong children can’t be reasoned with, especially if they have full grown bodies.
Seems like a waste of time to even try some days.
Report from my longtime friend in Henderson (“suburb” of Las Vegas, although they all kind of run together). She is a retired schoolteacher, 67.
@Elizabelle: I am afraid you are right but if he wins then we have to respect the will of the Dem primary voters. Unfortunately, we don’t have a choice. As unsuited as Bernie is to take the mantle of the party, he will be light years improvement over Trump. He will not cage children and he’ll end the racist and traumatic family separation policy. He will not target immigrants or ruin our country further. At least he’ll stop the bleeding. And he will reverse all of Trump’s awful EO.
Biden’s been claiming that he’s the Comeback Kid after placing second, which is an interesting take on how his race has progressed. That said, if he wins in South Carolina, well, maybe it becomes a kinda sorta credible claim.
His voters will come out if for only one reason. Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Roughly the same as it was in 2016 with Scalia. They don’t even have to play the Socialist card (though they surely will in that firehose of shit they are preparing). They are convinced that Roe will get reversed (and I am of the belief that the Right can never let that happen … don’t know how they play it out, but if Roe goes, they go … assuming no shenanigans, of course).
Can Sanders inspire enough to win? I don’t think so.
Mike in DC
Bernie on stage promising Free Candy For Everyone. If we just get into office, and do everything for everyone all at once without ever compromising our principles, we’ll be hugely successful. Why didn’t we ever try to do this before?! /sarc
@Omnes Omnibus: Can I be a concern troll about a possibly-alcoholic bullfrog?
@Mike in DC: Why do you hate the Socialist Magic Underpants Gnomes so much?
@Cheryl Rofer: Yeah. Does everyone remember the Obama meme that said “Everyone chill the F*** out. I got this” ?
That’s Warren now.
@John Revolta: You took my questions seriously? LOL :)
@O. Felix Culpa: ?I believe in scrambled eggs?
Duke of Clay
@Mai naem mobile: I’m on my second margarita and all my inhibitions are gone. I only have two things to say: “Jesus fucking Christ on a pogo stick.” And “The Democrat’s would fuck up a free lunch!”
@Elizabelle: the convention, and then the election, are both still quite a ways away. Anything could happen on either side.
I don’t see why I have to respect the will of people who can be swayed by Russian active measures.
Everyone please don’t lose perspective. Let us not be like the Bernie or Bust crowd. Our aim is to defeat Trump, keep the house majority, win as many state legislatures as possible, and win the winnable senate seats. Going off the deep end is not going to get us any wins.
@Mike in DC: BwHAHAHA!!!
Duke of Clay
@Duke of Clay: Also — just for reference: I am a life-long Democrat.
@Anya: Those are exactly the reasons why I think we should not be embracing the Bernie AND Bust crowd.
Hey! I learned something from him ?
I admit to having a deep seated Bernie hate. It’s visceral with me. I felt the same way in 2016. And it wasn’t that I was a devoted Hillary fan. There is just something about Bernie that turns me off. Maybe it’s his self-righteousness. Maybe it’s his self-centeredness, his selfishness. Maybe it’s his Brooklyn accent. But my antipathy is boundless. Would I vote for him in November? Yeah, but I’d be holding my nose.
@MagdaInBlack: That’s all fine and dandy, but my questions weren’t serious. :)
@Jeffro: The horse could learn to sing….
MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki pointed this out days ago on twitter, but Nevada might not end up showing a Warren bounce because, despite being a caucus, there’s still a lot of early voting.
@Zelma: Come sit by me.
@Jeffro: Yes. And I do not think the Democratic establishment wants to see shouty old Bernie piss away all their hard fought seats from 2018.
He could have negative coattails. We cannot lose this election.
Gonna call my Senators, Rep, Nancy Pelosi — anyone to express my concern. And going to continue to work for Elizabeth.
@mrmoshpotato: The silly can lead to the sublime and vice versa.
@janesays: Problem is, none of the candidates are as strong among the base as Sanders except for Biden. At least according to matchup polling. I mean, Sanders is the second most well known name in the race, so it shouldn’t be surprising.
Not saying it’s impossible for those numbers to move. But the base assumption shouldn’t be that Sanders for sure loses a two candidate race to Warren or Buttigieg
I will memorialize today’s Nevada caucus by making another contribution to Warren. Currently in third, hope she can eek up to second place.
@Betsy: FWIW, I think Obama should endorse before Bernie becomes unstoppable, and while it can still do some good.
This has not been business as usual since during his administration.
People need to take a deep breath and calm down. The Nevada caucus will change everything and rule our world for the next 100 years, will anoint the vile Sanders to be the Democratic candidate who will lose to Trump 0 to 723 (probably how Trump will count the electoral college results).
Until next week’s South Carolina primary. Then comes Super Tuesday just a few days after that.
@mrmoshpotato: Yes and no. Mainly I just saw an opening to show off my vast store of useless knowledge.
@Citizen Alan: You think Republicans, when they run someone against Manchin, won’t call him a socialist? come on
@John Revolta: Earlier by four decades, “Tea for Two” was given a set of nonsense lyrics to set the meter and melody, and…then they couldn’t come up with anything better.
@Elizabelle: what exactly do you expect your Senators and Speaker Pelosi yo di about it?
@zhena gogolia: In a democracy, the people get to pick the government, whether you think their reasoning is right or wrong. Failing to respect that just shows that you don’t sincerely believe in democratic norms.
That’s … exactly what I said, actually.
@cokane: GOP and health insurance industry have already run ad campaigns against all Democratic health care proposals, from Biden to Sanders that lie that they are all socialist, and government takeovers of health care.
It doesn’t make any difference who the Democrats run, those attacks are coming. Question is which candidate will most effectively counter the inevitable dishonest attacks. I think Warren by far the best. Sanders just blowing them off and yelling his stump speech might work. Biden laughing and yelling ‘malarkey!’ might work. Klobuchar straight talk punch in the gut might work. Her health plan is post it note compared to Warren’s but I think it is better than other centrist plans.
I doubt Buttigieg trying centrist triangulation and poll tested buzzwords, I am doubtful about. but even if the candidate is Buttigieg, we all have to work for Democratic victory in November. If some cannot bring themselves to work for the presidential nominee, then for House or Senate, national or state house, for governor, something.
Emma from FL
@cokane: I’m not zhena but… no. I don’t have to respect any individual. I respect the process. But the people? Not one bit. And when they realize what a disaster they have made, I will roll my eyes and walk away.
@jl: Certainly agree, but when people here talk about who will be the most effective in November, maybe instead of just basing that on our own speculating about the future, we could, double check our intuitions against matchup polling?
That polling seems to say that Biden and Sanders are the best choices, and consistently better than Warren. And it sucks imo, because I think she’d be the best president. But we should maybe acknowledge that our own speculation only goes so far, and that polling, especially polling where we can compare these candidate, has more usefulness.
Maybe wishful thinking from one of Warren’s people, but the debate really made a difference in her fundraising –
I really don’t give a shit who the nominee is, that is out of my control, at least after I contribute and work for Warren. So my personal tastes, preferences, views of the candidates play no role. My duty as a voter in the general election is pick from the choices determined by the democratic process. It is not responsible or patriotic to ‘walk away’ or withdraw from the election or the campaign.
I spent a lot of time talking about that in 2016 to alarmed and despairing Republicans who couldn’t vote for DJT and couldn’t vote for HRC. They said HRC was corrupt and an awful person who was out of touch. I said who gives a shit. You didn’t choose those people for the general, so its not your problem. You get out and work for and vote for the one who will be the better president.
Maybe some commenters here need to think about that.
Ahhh cr*p. Warren slipped to 4th again. I’ll increase the contribution I’m about to internet in to her campaign.
@jl: well said
I’m pretty sure polling has Warren’s voters switching to Sanders as their second choice, by about 2-to-1. I also don’t see why Warren has to bow out after finishing 4th if Biden can stay in after finishing 4th (IA) and 5th (NH).
Really, if your hope is to stop Sanders, you have to push out most of the candidates whose voters hate Bernie.
@Zelma: I’m out- can’t support Bernie in good conscience because he.is.a.liar so I’ll give to Biden and downticket races.
@Jinchi: Again. Sanders has something like an 80% approval among Democratic voters according to polling. Higher than any other candidate in the race. Outside of maybe Bloomberg voters, there isn’t a group that hates him like people on here do. Because you guys are not typical of most Democrats.
@cokane: I wasn’t making a big pitch for Warren in the general, just that I thought she would be better than Biden or Sander, but they also had approaches that could work. I also think polling this far out from the general is not a good enough indicator to choose between candidates.
Should We Take These Early General Election Polls Seriously? $#!% No!
By Perry Bacon Jr, Fivethirtyeight
But as we get closer to election, we see better how the candidates perform across a larger sample of states, I may have to reconsider my support for Warren. I just don’t think that decision is necessary right now.
@ThresherK: Well, it’s no “Mairzey Doates and Dozey Doates and Little Lambzy Divey” but it ain’t bad.
I agree. Although I’m not completely sure if you’re talking about Bernie or Bloomberg.
Well that’s a first. Usually I’m taking hits from the other side assuming I’m a Bernie Bro.
@jl: I disagree somewhat with the analysis because we can take Sanders numbers from 2016 into account as well (where he polled higher in matchups than Clinton did). I.e. his support in these kinds of polls has been quite durable. And he’s had about as much of a media microscope on him as any candidate who has yet to actually take the nomination.
@Jinchi: “with no chance of accomplishing anything”
If Dems don’t take the Senate, or tie it, then that describes every Democratic candidate. Maybe those disgusted with the prospects for the presidential election should find some Senate candidates to support.
I wish I had anything good to say about the NV results, but I don’t.
I think Warren should stay in to pull votes from Sanders and everyone else but one person should drop out. But no candidates but Biden and Sanders are doing well among minorities. Sanders is crushing it among Hispanic voters in NV.
And for all the people saying “don’t panic” they’ll be saying that up until the point Sanders is the nominee.
Nothing to say that hasn’t been said so I’ll just leave this here. Vote as if…
@cokane: I do agree that the general election polls for both Biden and Sanders look good, and I do not agree with the fanatics on either side who say one or the other faces certain defeat. They might be very good candidates for the election.
Right now I have to admit that, from poll aggregates I’ve seen, we give up a a couple of points in early polls for a woman candidate, which is disgusting, but it is what it is. If we get the Senate, and with her aggressive approach to making big improvements quick with exec orders, and pressuring Dems in Senate to take maximum advantage of whatever they get, I think she would be the best president. So that outweighs the early polls in the general. We’ll see what develops.
People should support whoever they think best.
@jl: at the end of the day, the idea that a Sanders, Warren or Buttigieg administration would be at all radically different from each other is a delusion. One held equally by BernieBros as much as the Bernie haters on here.
What’s obviously key is control of the Senate. And it’s quite do-able regardless of the nominee. Favorable races in Arizona, Maine, Colorado. Long odds to hold in Alabama, so one more pick up is needed, in say North Carolina perhaps, but that would do it.
@guachi: You should not panic if he’s the nominee.
It’s still early, but Bernie winning by 20%+? Good God, what a disaster. I hope Biden crushes it in South Carolina, because if he doesn’t, we are screwed.
This is probably the last shot in my adult life at not living with a severely conservative judiciary and a properly-redistricted House – and we are going to blow it. And I’m only 34. FML.
@Omnes Omnibus: Just as long as we don’t end up with sublemon.
@cokane: Now, there we agree. I think Warren has the best plans for making improvements in people’s lives regardless of who wins the Senate. But over four years, that won’t make an overwhelming difference in a Warren, Sanders or Biden or any other administration.
For one, just by some odd quirk of how Constitutional interpretation has to work by strict geometrical logic, the SCOTUS will hem Warren’s exec orders in more than Trump’s.
Got to give Sanders credit, his polling among Latinos is far beyond the other candidates, and he’s within a few points of Biden among black voters.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Sounds like to Putin Bernie is the same deal as Trump for Russia; another useless idiot.
Another bit of information warfare I think we are missing is Bloomberg; his candidacy make sure some serious reformer like Warren doesn’t get the presidency by watering down the alternative to the front runner. Though one would think Warren who wants reform would be preferable to the money class than Sanders who wants to just burn Wall Street down.
I am glad they leaked this on Bernie during the primary so Angry Uncle Socialist there has to deal with it. Good lord, I am getting sick and tired of entitled and dumb elders.
@PsiFighter37: TBH, if people do want to stop Sanders, I think this is probably the only remaining path. I could see Biden finishing 2nd in NV then first in SC and that maybe creating something of a comeback story. He’s the one candidate in the race who I think would do the best in a two person race down the stretch.
Buttigieg or Warren just haven’t connected much with minority voters in the party. Not nearly as well as Sanders, at least.
@cokane: Why not? I’m a couple of years younger than Sanders. He’s too old, as are Biden and Bloomberg. He doesn’t look healthy (neither does Biden) and he uses the Democratic party apparatus and then calls all of us who don’t support him part of the Democratic elite. He’s an arrogant entitled politician who doesn’t seem to have accomplished much policy wise for his entire time in the Senate. He’s voted to protect gun rights and against Russian sanctions. I was not impressed at all with that speech of his on the tarmac yesterday.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I really wonder if Bloomberg got in to take out Elizabeth.
Not realizing Bernie really has his fan(atic)s.
There’s one candidate with whom we most certainly don’t win the Senate.
McSally is already running ads in AZ tying Mark Kelly to “Socialist Bernie Sanders”. I suspect the same will happen to Doug Jones and Sara Gideon if it hasn’t already.
@Cheryl Rofer: it also made a difference in later voters. Maybe, just maybe…
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Jinchi: He got a free pass. No one told Latinos he voted for Dump’s racist wall. No one told Latinos he repeatedly voted against immigration reform. No one told Latinos he would go on the racist Lou Dobbs show and blame immigrants for stagnant wages. No one told Latinos he voted for the crime bill. No one told Latinos about his hostility to what he calls “identity politics”.
So yes, all the other candidates who gave him a free pass made an error.
@Raven Onthill: On to South Carolina.
Do you think women are falling all over themselves to vote for Bernie?
And: Elizabeth Warren live telecast from a Town Hall in Seattle, this very minute.
@Cacti: Yeah. The WaPost has a big story up about downballot candidates distancing themselves from Sanders. Mark Kelly is prominently mentioned.
We need to stop this.
Who should moderate Democrats coalesce around?
I know most here think it should be Warren. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, the voters do not agree. It is not happening.
That leaves Joe, Pete, Amy and Mike. Ugh!
Well, I had a lovely day of a family birthday party for my daughter… Let me check on the Nevada caucus at Ballon Juice… (witnesses rending of garments, things on fire, an elitist bullfrog sommelier) Going fine I see.
Bernie is not my favorite. Light years ahead of Bloomers and Gabbard, but not even near my favorite. But did I miss the Convention? The nominee is not decided yet. The media will continue to sandbag any Dem candidate and Sanders is running out of chaff to screen him from the spotlight. Let us see where Super Tuesday takes us. Probably, there will be more gnashing of teeth, sackcloth, and ashes as our favorites drop out or are superseded by another. Don’t relax but keep a little perspective.
If Sanders does become the nominee, we need to fight to make the government of the people the most effective and successful it can be. That means fewer Republicans and more Democrats. If you can’t stomach cheerleading for Sanders, get some Pepto, and focus on down-ticket races. You still need to remove the current pResident, so you need to pull that lever or sharpie that bubble. Be better if you can make sure that more people do it as well.
I will even campaign for Bloomberg, but I will ensure that there are a rock-solid Congress and Senate to stand up to his worst impulses.
I’m going to withhold judgement on Putin’s skill at puzzling out the American electorate. Putin clearly wants to fracture the population as much as possible and he’s sees Bernie as a person hoping to upend the system.
But he clearly wants Trump as president.
You do know who leaked this, right? A story about Putin supporting Sanders, released by anonymous ‘people familiar with the matter’, days after Trump publicly upbraided and fired his Director of National Intelligence, specifically for reporting that Putin was getting involved in the 2020 campaign. And the story doesn’t mention that Putin is also helping Trump? Why would these people leave that out, do you think?
She’s not going to drop out until Buttigieg drops out. She hates him so much her pride won’t let her do the right thing, she’ll stay in until she’s flat busted broke.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@jl: Those numbers are illusory. Sanders has never faced any negative ads. Nobody went after him in any of the debates.
He’s about to be hit in the face with a big Red 2X4.
I for one don’t hate him. Rue him, yes perhaps. What I do hate is that he is openly and brazenly playing a long con and (so far) getting away with it; too many marks overeager to buy in.
That’s the problem. Sanders would be the plague for down-ticket races.
Well, look on the “bright” side. Trump is likely to have his opponent arrested for treason, so if Bernie gets the nomination at least he’ll die in prison.
BBA +a few
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Wilmer went on Lou Dobbs?! Seriously?
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Bring on the 2×4. We cannot afford a delay.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@mrmoshpotato: He NOW says it doesn’t matter because it was 10 years ago. Of course he never let Clinton or Biden off the hook for something they said 30 years ago.
And he’s had about as much of a media microscope on him as any candidate
Jesus hopscotching Christ.
How quickly we forget.
ETA: Ah. I’m guessing you mean “any candidate currently running”, not “any Democratic candidate ever”. But even then it’s false, because of Trump’s attempt to paint a Biden/Ukraine scandal, and the media’s need to run barking after that shiny thing.
I keep leaving from you guys how if just a couple of them bow out, The one who is left will beat Bernie Sanders….
but looking at the head-to-head match is between Bernie and everybody else, The only one who comes close is Elizabeth Warren to beating him… A lot of fight in supporters actually go to Sanders next, The same goes for a lot of the supporters of very low candidates like Steyer and Gabbard..
Bernie is not looking beatable right now…. so hopefully you never Never Bernie BJers Will figure out how you can support him when he’s the nominee…. Because I don’t see the part of uniting behind Elizabeth Warren right now to fight him, Half of them seem to want to suck the teat of Michael Bloomberg….
I really wonder if Bloomberg got in to take out Elizabeth.
This has always been my take.
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: JFC. I think it’s time to unplug and watch Michael Douglas losing his shit.
I’d like to offer a word or two of optimism, if I may.
I live in Milwaukee and I’ve been involved in electoral politics here since the campaign to recall Scott Walker in 2011. I work with a lot of other people who are similarly involved, mostly outside of the Democratic Party, in leftist unions and community organizations based in the predominantly Latino near south side and the predominantly Aftrican-American near north side of the city. Within this group, some (Working Families Party) have endorsed Sen. Warren, others in one of the unions are informally quite supportive of Sen. Sanders, others such a myself are more agnostic between the two. But we all get along and play well with one another. At the moment, we’re not particularly focused on the primary election — not nearly as focused as you all seem to be! — we’re working hard on several local campaigns to fund the city schools and win some local elections, including a couple of key seats on the City Council. In fact there is no presidential primary election here right now, that circus will not blow into town for another 3 weeks or so.
By the time the circus does get here the primary field will likely be in a very different state from the current one — so it doesn’t do us much good to worry about things we can’t control. What we can control is keeping 10 electoral votes away from Trump. As we see it, that’s our one and only job, and it’s the same job no matter who the Democrats nominate, so to first order the nominee does not matter that much. We’ll do what we have to do, as best we can do it.
Beyond first order, here’s the strategy: if you’re going to win a statewide election in Wisconsin you have to roll up huge margins in Dane County (Madison) and Milwaukee County. You also need to pick up votes in the counties along Lake Superior and along the Mississippi River, but relatively the population is sparse there — you will never pick up that many votes. If you’re lucky you will do well in Racine and Kenosha. You will not do well in the very populous counties west and north of Milwaukee, that’s the Republican base, and you won’t do well in the Fox River Valley towns or Green Bay. You will do well in Madison but there are not enough votes in Madison alone to take the state — you have to have huge numbers in Milwaukee and that means you have to turn out people in the Latino and African-American communities in big numbers if you hope to stand a chance of winning.
But if you go out and start knocking on doors in those communities you will quickly find that there is little love to be found for Democrats generally, and that’s true across the rest of the state as well. The reasons for that vary from place to place but in Milwaukee we suffer from the same post-deindustrialization economic problems that most rust belt cities face. And that has not changed in spite of the fact that the Democrats have had a lock on both City and County government here for years. That’s ironic because there’s a river of money flowing through the downtown right now, but somehow it never, ever, gets out to the communities where it’s needed. So people are quite jaded.
They are not, however, apolitical. They can be mobilized to vote but it’s going to require a candidate with a message that the economics of deindustrialization (and the politics of racism that goes with it) are over. And by and large the Democrats can’t move those votes in the City though they can be effective in some of the suburbs.
We’re all pretty much agreed that either Sanders or Warren could be that candidate and behind either of them we can keep those 10 electoral votes away from Trump. We can’t control what happens in any other state so it’s pointless to worry about it. We can’t control what happens after the election either. What we can control is building up our infrastructure to be able to turn out those voters.
We believe that behind either Sanders or Warren we can turn out enough votes to flip Wisconsin, though I will say that behind any of the other centrist candidates it gets a lot harder and behind Bloomberg it’s nearly impossible.
@Matt: why should I – he hates Democratic Party members- And further if the best we can do as a nation is Bernie or Trump, we’re already on a downward slope
May you survive the convention in one piece. :)
Agreed. I also think people should realize that if it comes down to Bernie vs Bloomberg, Warren will not only endorse Bernie, but she’ll stump for him across the country.
Bloomberg is the personification of everything she’s running against.
@Another Scott: OMG you’ve probably gone to bed by now but I just want you to know that I love you so much for all the comments this thread (she says, twisting her hankie and close to tears)
@Kattails: Yes. Another Scott is a treasure.
(replying to mrmoshpotato) Well, on the upside I have (less political) friends who think they’re going to make bank by renting out their houses for $1200/night on airbnb while they spend the week up in Eagle River. No question the convention will be a shitshow for those of us who live here, and that’s in the best case if everything goes smoothly. But seriously, if we can get whoever the nominee is out of the godddamn Fiserve Center and into the community we think we can build up some serious buzz to get out and vote in November.
Hang in there, everyone.
@joel hanes: Yeah, it’s fair to say Biden has gotten scrutinized as much or more than Sanders. But I wouldn’t say it’s a big gap there. Both still perform well though in the matchup polling and have maintained that over months, so, I dunno if Ukraine has hurt Biden.
I think this is vastly untrue. Regular liberal dems may not hate him as much as people here. But the GOP disgusted with Trump and the moderate verging on GOP voters (i.e., suburbanites with big bank balances) dislike him immensely. I have read on three blogs today that people won’t vote for him. And if they are dems that is stupid. And if they are GOP that is stupid bec he is much better than Trump. But many many people will see him as too extreme. And when push comes to shove they may not vote for Trump, but they may just not vote for Pres at all or stay home or worse vote 3rd party. He is JUST as polarizing as Hillary was in many ways. Many people had irrational dislike of Hillary and I think that is true of Sanders as well. I know I dislike him irrationally–but I will vote blue no matter what.
Anyone who believes that losing against a single opponent with 47.3% of the vote in 2016 is a bigger achievement than winning with 45% of the vote against ten opponents in 2020 really should stay away from sharp objects.
@lurker3000: Instead of relying on your hunches or personal perception of things, why not take the time and double check that fact against polling?
74-21 favorable-unfavorable. tied for the best performance in a general election matchup
Yeah, keep on pointing to a poll that’s conducted online.
Trump has 93% approval among Republicans, and 43% among independents. So if you assume that Trump supporters won’t vote for any Democrat, we are trying to win over 7% of Republicans, and 57% of independents.
Rather than making the case that Sanders is a disaster, can you make the case that any alternative candidate (Warren, Biden etc.) would get more votes from disaffected Republicans and independents, without losing support from Democrats?
As a thought experiment, maybe Bloomberg or Biden – or even Klobuchar – could win over more independents than Sanders, but wouldn’t the turnout among Democrats go down even more?
Here’s the problem with saying it’s OK if everybody stays in the race until Super Tuesday – all of the candidates getting under 15% in these races are getting ZERO delegates. The more candidates you have, the more likely it is that a lot of them will be getting goose eggs in every primary in the delegate math. If there was one especially strong candidate among the non-Bernie candidates, it might not be a problem. The problem is, Buttigieg, Biden, and Klobuchar have all had really good nights in individual races, but none of them has had good nights in every race. Bernie Sanders has. There isn’t a contest yet where he hasn’t been at the top or near the top in racking up delegates. It’s looking very likely that Sanders is going to get nearly half the delegates out of Nevada, and maybe more, depending on whether or not Buttigieg can hang on to his barely above 15% vote share in the state. Warren is getting zilch. Klobuchar is getting zilch. Biden will get the second most delegates out of Nevada, but it’s going to be way less than Bernie, and he was coming into the state in 5th place in the delegate race. Biden might still win South Carolina, but if he does, it’s probably not going to be by a lot, and Sanders seems like a pretty safe bet to finish in at least a close second place.
Then we go to Super Tuesday – Bernie has large leads in both Texas and California right now, and while we can say, “polls schmolls” all we want – the polls have been pretty accurate thus far. If all six of the leading candidates are still in the race nine days from now, he’s going to win the two biggest states in the country. Because the other candidates are taking votes away from each other. And possibly by pretty comfortable margins. At that point, he’s going to have a huge lead in delegates, and the only thing that will take him down is some huge scandal, which isn’t really something we can depend upon to save us here.
There is a strong desire to have a non-Bernie candidate as the nominee right now, but the desire is spread out too thin among 5 different people. If three of them don’t get out of the way, they’re going to put themselves in a position of mutually assured destruction. The only way we beat Bernie is if we pick one or at most two candidates who we like to face off against him in a 2 or 3 person race (I don’t consider Steyer’s or Gabbard’s candidacies to be legitimate at this point), and let the chips fall where they may on Super Tuesday. If we don’t do that, Bernie’s going to win 30% of the vote that day, Biden wins maybe 18%, Buttigieg wins 14%, Warren wins 11%, Bloomberg wins 8%, and Klobuchar wins 7%, and that’s the ballgame.
@oldgold: It’s not Klobuchar or Warren, and I don’t think it’s Bloomberg, either.
It’s Biden or Buttigieg. Pick one. Biden would make a better president without question, but I don’t know if he’s the stronger candidate against Sanders. Buttigieg has gone toe-to-toe with Bernie in two contests, and he’s only slightly behind Biden in the third contest.
No One You Know
@Zelma: I feel the same way. And if there’s any truth that there’s a pile of opposition research that shows Russian manipulation on his behalf, I don’t know what I’ll do. I hate Trump, passionately and viscerally, but above that, I hate the idea that the Russians will now win if they’ve got kompromat on both final candidates.
FFS. He’s not a Democrat. What is he doing here?
Being “not Trump” is too low a standard. His profile as an independent suggests he’ll have no more respect for norms and rules than Trump has. And now we have precedents.
I haven’t forgotten “Bernie” from 2016 either. I don’t see any evidence that he’s learned anything about working with others or disciplining a staff.
If Elizabeth Warren is asked, and accepts, a VP role, I will still grit my teeth and vote. Future scenarios look better. But the better candidate shouldn’t have a less competent boss.
@janesays: I don’t want Bernie either, but I’ll happily take him over Biden or Buttigieg.
Don’t know about making a case. I’m not an expert or a political person, just a concerned citizen. I think Biden would be more appealing. Klobuchar is clearly favored by Never Trumpers but not by enough Dems that I can tell. I think Buttigieg should not be president as he’s too young and not experienced, but apparently others don’t feel that way as he was ahead in delegates in IA and NH. Problem is Biden is faltering and Amy/Pete are splitting the votes. No way Sanders won’t prevail if they all stay in. I am a Warren supporter but so far she has not picked up enough of more left than center voters and Amy/Pete are hoovering up the moderates. I don’t see Pete/Amy bowing out unless Biden takes a lead–and even then I wonder if Buttigieg wouldn’t stay anyway if he has the money. Too many moderates with egos and Biden knocked out the better moderates to my mind. I just don’t believe that in the PA, WI, etc., the states that matter to electoral count that Sanders will win. I’m a Warren supporter and I really thought she would do better at bridging the gap between left and moderate–but it doesn’t seem to be happening so far. Still time but I am less hopeful. I do think she might be a good compromise choice at convention if it turns out Sanders has a solid 30-40% and the rest is split between moderates. I hope Scott is correct and the primaries still to come will change the dynamic. I just am scared that Sanders will scare off too many staid voters and we’ll lose even the House. I am an alarmist though. I would point out though that the only reason Bernie has had 3 good nights is because his base are diehard fanatics. Biden/Amy/Pete supporters might all be willing to compromise, unlike Bernie voters. In fact the reason he’s still winning is because of the split. None of that has any bearing on whether he would win in the general at all.
@Omnes Omnibus: Here’s the problem with that argument – you’re ignoring the accuracy of the polls thus far with regard to their projections on Sanders results. Sanders outperformed his projections by a few points in Iowa, more or less performed to predicted expectations in New Hampshire, and wildly outperformed his poll numbers in Nevada. He’s polling strongly in just about every Super Tuesday state – mostly notably the two biggest states – and there’s no reason to believe the polls are wildly overestimating his chances based on what we’ve seen thus far.
Now, one of two things needs to be true for you not to be concerned – either the polls are wildly overestimating Sanders odds in upcoming states, or they are wildly underestimating some other candidate (which one, who knows?) in those polls.
I think we need to trust the polls. Which means the only chance we have to stop Sanders is for several candidates to quit NOW, before Super Tuesday, so that a consensus non-Bernie candidate can emerge. Because if they wait until March 4th, it will very likely be too late.
@No One You Know: Two acronyms and two names:
SCOTUS. RBG. Roe. Wade.
That is all the reason I need to vote for whoever has the (D) after their name this November, because the one thing I can pretty safely guarantee is that Bernie Sanders’ judicial picks will be light years better than Trump’s. And that matters way, way, way, way, way more than most Democrats seem willing to recognize. I wish we cared about federal judicial appointments even half as much as most Republicans. Because those folks get to call the shots for decades, and it’s close to impossible to get rid of them once they are in their bench assignments.
I’m relying on anecdotal evidence and live in a red state. Many people are sick of Trump. ALL the non Dems are adamantly opposed to Sanders (and Warren sadly which may not change either). Warren might be able to moderate enough in general or be a consensus candidate–but she still might not pull in enough non Dems in general. Democrats have always been delusional about how the country feels as a whole. Look how shocked we all were that Trump won. Hell, consider how shocking the Trump rallies are and that’s what 27% of the country or something. The vast majority of Dems are not Sanders/Warren fans no matter how you try to finesse polls. The only reason Sanders does better in national polls is because of name recognition. And once the oppo hits …. I get that Sanders fans are all giddy at this point. But the reality is that most of this country are NOT leftists, but center-left and a large portion of purely center voters need to vote against Trump. I don’t believe they will vote for a Sanders. I hoped they might vote for a Warren but after she clung to Sanders positions, I became less and less optimistic. I love Warren and her plans and her passion. But the important thing is getting rid of Trump, hanging onto the House and maybe getting a few more Senate seats. That’s more important than some moral left victory on the part of Sanders supporters. If he gets the nomination all Dems should of course vote for him; I don’t think you can expect that Independents or GOP will feel that way however. They should realize that Trump is much more dangerous. But this is a country that voted into office the most incompetent and horrific president ever.
Here’s the problem with that. On the one hand, it seems like most people here have a pretty negative view about the emotional maturity of most Sanders voters, and yet the assumption you’re making about a scenario in which Sanders wins 40% of the delegates, finishes clearly ahead of every other candidate, and yet still doesn’t wind up with the nomination is that we can rely on his supporters to have the emotional maturity to put aside their feelings of tremendous resentment and the belief that their guy got completely screwed to cast their vote for the not-Bernie candidate who did worse in the primaries than Bernie to serve the greater good.
So which is it? Are the Bernistas obnoxious emotionally immature trolls who we want to go away, or good team players who we can trust to do the right thing and put aside their hurt feelings to vote for somebody they didn’t want to be the nominee, even though the person they did want did better than everyone else in the primaries?
Because if they’re really as immature as you think they are and Bernie finishes ahead of everyone else in delegates but doesn’t get the nomination at the convention, guess who is not going to be voting for the Democratic nominee in November? A few million Sanders supporters. And if they don’t vote for the nominee, the nominee does not beat Donald Trump, period.
By the same token, by insisting that Bernie will get crushed and lose 40 states if he’s the nominee, what you’re actually saying is that a shitload of Democrats are too emotionally immature to swallow their pride and vote a candidate they didn’t like (despite him doing better than every other candidate in the primaries), and are willing to burn the country to the ground unless the party refuses to make Sanders the nominee, even if more people choose him to be the nominee than any other candidate.
@PsiFighter37: Biden currently leads Sanders in South Carolina by a margin of 23.4% to 21% on FiveThirtyEight. Thus far, Sanders has matched or exceeded his polling projections in every contest.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on a Biden blowout, especially with all of the favorable media coverage Bernie is going to get for his Nevada win over the next week. Biden may well hang on and win there, but I can’t imagine it’s going to be by anything more than 5 points or so. Barring some unforeseen scandal.
@Another Scott: And yet, when in the history of the modern Democratic presidential nomination process (since we stopped letting the party leaders pick the candidate regardless of primary results) has the tide ever turned dramatically against the frontrunner after nearly 40% of the race is over?
I suppose there’s a first for everything, but if Sanders has a 100+ delegate lead over every other candidate after March 3rd, history strongly suggests that nobody will catch him.
@janesays: It’s not the Dems I’m worried about. In the 4 or 5 states that matter, the voters we need to vote against Trump and not go 3rd party are mostly Independents and GOP crossovers. Faint possibility that Dem turnout would overcome the rural vote but not that likely. I’m saying that just like last time a % of Sanders voters are diehards and won’t vote for anyone but Sanders. But like last time, many of Sanders voters did voter for the Dem nominee in the end. And most not to the left Dems will vote for any halfway decent Dem. I’m actually agreeing with you that the moderates are splitting the vote and Sanders will win. My point is that I think you are wrong that Sanders can win in the states that made the difference last time. And we’re not even factoring in all the GOP rat*ckers in these caucus votes for Sanders. His actual % is not that much better than 2016. Why do you think in primaries he’s going to suddenly pull a lot of other voters? I think he has brought some new voters in, but will they make enough of a difference in the contested states when Trump won by 80,000 votes because the rural voters came out strong for him. And you know those same voters are going to be jsut as fanatical as Sanders voters. In IA and NH his big deal wins he did NOT have a lot of new voters and the overall totals were not that high. NV has been different: higher turnout. I don’t know if there’s any info on how many new voters; I think there have been a lot of newly registered caucus voters but are they actual new voters or are they crossover voters? I’m just saying you are correct that Sanders will win the nomination if all the moderates stay in. I doubt that many Dems won’t vote because Sanders isn’t the nominee–just his most diehard supporters (like last time). My personal opinion, and it’s just that, is that the number of Sanders voters who won’t vote Dem if he’s not the nominee will be less than the number of non Dems who won’t vote if he is. Do I have empirical evidence, no. It’s my gut feeling. I think your over emphasis on polls is … somewhat risky. At this point I don’t think it’s necessary to decide Sanders is an inevitability. But yes, there’s a real danger that the moderates will allow him to arrive at the convention with a percentage higher than anyone else. So are you saying that you think if he has a whopping 30-40% of delegates that in some way measures how he will perform in the general? Because that’s only among Dems. Also I’m not saying anything about a 40 state loss. I am talking about a very tight race (which it will obviously be) and who can win in the 3 or 4 states that matter in the electoral count.
@janesays: I don’t remember saying anything about maturity. I said Sanders voters aren’t likely to be willing to compromise. I did overstate it because they are so damn obnoxious often. More accurately, they are much less likely to compromise on a nominee than other candidate’s supporters. I said a majority of Dems are not leftists and a majority of the country is center/right of center. And I said that in the primary most Sanders supporters only want Sanders, whereas most of Amy/Pete/Biden/maybe Warren supporters would take any of the four. It’s got nothing to do with maturity–it’s that Sanders’ voters have mostly been only for Sanders all along. I hope most Sanders supporters realize how dangerous Trump is. A majority of Sanders’ supporters voted for Hillary despite the ongoing narrative that he was cheated. If the decision comes down to appease the Sandernistas vs. win the general with a consensus moderate nominee who will win in PA, WI, etc., I say to hell with any Sanders voter who isn’t willing to put the wellbeing of the country before their candidate. And if they try to hold the rest of the Dem party hostage, they deserve what they get. If no one has 1991 the rules are clear, regardless of how many more delegates Sanders has than the others.
There might be a pretty key difference between 2016 and 2020. In 2016, by any and literally every measure, Bernie Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton. Given some time to get over themselves, a fair number of Sanders supporters were able to finally acknowledge that Bernie wasn’t actually screwed – he just lost.
If he gets the most votes, and the most pledged delegates, but somehow isn’t the nominee. I wouldn’t assume those people are going to get over it quite so easily. I have a few coworkers who were diehard Sanders supporters in 2016, but ultimately cast their votes for Clinton even though they didn’t like her because they recognized how awful Trump was, but more importantly, they were able to recognize that Clinton was in fact the democratically-chosen nominee. She was the people’s choice. They knew that deep down.
Now let’s say Sanders ends up with 41% of the delegates and say 37% of the popular vote. Joe Biden has mounted somewhat of a comeback, but he still trails distantly with only 18% of the delegates and 21% of the popular vote (the way delegates are distributed makes this a possible scenario). After him is Buttigieg, with 16% of the delegates, and so forth and so on. Sanders didn’t win an outright majority, but he was very clearly the preferred candidate of more people than any other single candidate.
Now you say, “But Bernie wasn’t the choice of the majority of people!” True enough. And if we could fuse all of the other candidates together to form a Bidigiegarrenchar nominee who clearly had the support of a majority of Democratic primary voters, problem solved. Unfortunately, that’s not an option. You can only pick one.
And the objection for every one of them is going to be the exact same as it was for Bernie… “But Biden/Buttigieg/Warren/Klobuchar wasn’t the choice of the majority of people!” And it will be even more true for each of them than it was for Bernie. Because the one thing Bernie will be able to say is, “Maybe I didn’t get a majority of the votes and delegates, but I got more than any one of you. Fact.”
Then what? If Bernie Sanders is as much of an egotistical arrogant self-righteous asshole as everyone here believes he is, why in the world would any rational person believe that he would quietly stand down if the party establishment decides to make someone who got fewer votes than him and fewer delegates than him the nominee? That doesn’t make a damn bit of sense. In order for this situation to work out in a way that isn’t a complete and utter disaster for us in November, you must concede that either Bernie needs to be the nominee if he finishes ahead of everyone else by a sizable margin at the end of the primaries, or somebody else needs to be chosen and you don’t really believe he’s the leftwing version of Trump you perceive him to be. Because if you think he is that person and you take the nomination away from him despite him beating everyone else, there will be hell to pay, and Donald Trump will get re-elected.
The only possible way that someone other than Sanders or Trump will be taking the presidential oath next January is if someone beats Sanders straight up in the primaries. That’s it. That’s the only path to a non-Sanders, non-Trump White House in January. If Sanders gets the most votes and the most delegates, either you take your chances with him as the nominee and hope for the best, or you forfeit the election and accept four more years of Trump.
To be clear, I don’t claim to know whether Sanders can win in those critical states or not. I have nothing remotely resembling certitude on that concern. I think fears about his vulnerability in those states is entirely rational. What I do have certitude about is that a Democratic nominee who finished behind Bernie Sanders in both pledged delegates and total popular votes CANNOT win the election. Because Bernie Sanders voters will not support that person, and they are a large enough faction to hand the contest to Trump if they choose to sit it out. And the magnitude of their defeat would be directly proportional to the margin of Sanders primary lead over that person.
Hi just stumbled into this thread.
read the whole thing my thoughts.
Full disclosure I like Bernie but I also like Warren they are like my 1a and 2b. I understand the concern about Bernie and I find some of the issues with him concerning also age, tone perception of being too radical.
but right now the only person that is probably going to be able to beat sanders is Warren or Biden. If you guys don’t want sanders as the nominee The field needs to clear to just Warren, Biden and Sanders. The others candidates that drop out their supporters would probably go to warren/ Biden.
that needs to happen before Super Tuesday and Warren and Biden can’t drop out because sanders will pick up those voters.
of course there is Bloomberg too he won’t drop out and he is going impact a lot of these races negatively and possibly inadvertently put Sanders on top.
And that’s why this election is going to be bat $hit crazy
If no one has 1991, the rules are clear that the superdelegates get to cast votes on subsequent rounds. Those are the rules, and I’ve got no problem with them. But if those superdelegates decide to nominate a candidate who finished distantly behind another candidate and are just trusting that the leading candidate’s supporters will just fall in line and rally around the establishment choice (who wasn’t chosen by the people), they are either criminally naive and should have their superdelegate privileges stripped because of their gross incompetence, or they are criminally evil because they are knowingly forfeiting the election to Donald Trump.
Let’s put the shoe on the other foot. Imagine a scenario in which Elizabeth Warren surges past Sanders in the final stretch and winds up with a plurality of delegates after the final contest. She’s ahead of him by about 2-3 points in popular votes, and she has 95 more pledged delegates than him. But she only has 30% of the total pledged delegates. The Bernie people make a huge fuss and the superdelegates get terrified that if they don’t make Bernie the compromise choice, that his voters will revolt and Trump will get re-elected. Bernie is chosen as the nominee, even though Warren beat him in popular votes and pledged delegates.
Do you just graciously fall in line and support the nominee? Be honest.
I will only say this. For a long time now, Democratic pols and professional campaigners have talked about mobilizing Latino voters with little result. Sanders is not my candidate at all, but he actually went out and did that. This is worthy of respect.
[Sanders has succeeded in mobilizing Latinx voters]
This is huge.
If he can repeat that in Texas, we don’t need to care so much about e.g. Pennsylvania. Texas is the big enchilada, and if Sanders can flip it, he will have done much to save the American polity.
16 hours and 5 non-political threads since this one. lol…
Sanders isn’t Choice Number One, but it will be interesting to see if Democrats demanding fealty from all Bernie-bros for the eventual nominee will follow that same requirement themselves.
I don’t know if you’ve been following along, but a high proportion of commenters on this blog who prefer someone other than Sanders have stated that they will “crawl over broken glass” to vote for him if he’s the nominee, and donate to the campaign. Many have promised to canvass for him.
To reiterate a point that keeps coming up in these comments, in 2016, about 90% of Bernie’s voters voted for Clinton in the general election and 10% defected to Trump. That’s well within the normal range of defections from candidates of both parties through modern history.
It’s about half the percentage of Clinton voters who switched to McCain after she was defeated by Obama in 2008. It’s less than the percentage of Latinos (25%) who voted for Trump. It’s less than the total number of Obama voters (several million) who switched to Trump. It’s about equal to the percentage of black men who voted for Trump.
But we don’t blame Trump’s election on black men or Latinos or Obama voters, because that would be stupid and probably get you banned from the comments section as a troll.
@janesays: Thank you for this post! On one hand these folks have been wagging their fingers at Bernie supporters for 3 yrs now admonishing them to Vote Blue No Matter Who (TM), and now, finding the shoe on the other foot, are desperate in their attempts to sink the most popular campaign so far. It’s really maddening.
Follow the primary process! The math seems simple: If, as is likely, Bernie earns the plurality of delegates, get behind him as the nominee or plan to beat Trump in the general w/o 5-10% of would be Bernie supporters that stay at home or vote third party. This is not a threat. This is increasing likely to be the reality.
As I tiptoe thru the rubble of a post NV election on BJ, I am still surprised at the Bernie Derangement Syndrome shown here. People still talking about Hillary and 2016 for chrissakes! Move on, already.