Not really, though. I don’t like a lot of what I am seeing out there, with people predicting the end of the world if Sanders wins. First off, the primaries are FAR from over, and anything can happen. And I am not saying that in a “miracles happen Bernie can be defeated” way, but in a “we don’t know shit yet because this is soo early in the game.”
Second, this is what being in a coalition means. My preferred candidate is Warren, but should she lose and not become the nominee, I am still going to support the Democratic nominee, because Trump is a monster and Ruth Bader Ginsburg ain’t getting any younger.
So calm down. I think a lot of people are working themselves into a lather and painting themselves rhetorically into a corner. Anyone we nominate will be better than Trump. Literally anyone. The bar is that low. Mike Bloomberg is a billionaire autocrat and a fascist who oversaw some pretty fucking outright racist policies as Mayor, but EVEN HE is better than Trump, and by a wide fucking margin.
So buck up. Just keep supporting the person you like, work on getting out the vote, and do what you can to take our country back.
Open Thread: Voter Information At Your Fingertips
Adam L Silverman
via GIPHY
BR
My only concern is the effect of the Horrible Hawaiian congressperson. Can someone here go to one of her events and ask her something (with a friend taking video)?
She is either is looking to be a spoiler against the Dem nominee or wants VP to Bernie. We need someone to get her on record (with video) answering something like this: “You used to support Bernie and were strongly supportive of him. I’m trying to decide between him and you, and you’re running against him this time. Why would you be a better president than Bernie?” Basically we need to get her on video attacking Bernie. Maybe feed her a bit about some past AUMF (2001?) that he supported, or whatever. Then get that video to the bros.
We need to put daylight between her and Bernie now, not a few months from now, so that his supporters don’t wander off regardless of who wins the nomination. If she doesn’t have to answer this, and she doesn’t get picked by Bernie for VP (if he’s the nominee), she’ll lead her own purity brigade and turn 5-10% of the Berners against him for insufficient purity. If he isn’t the nominee then she will take 5-10% of the Berners with her since the nominee won’t be sufficiently pure. Win win for her, lose lose for the country.
Heidi Mom
Well said, John, and thank you.
donnah
Everything is done at hyperspeed now. We get ballot results before the votes are counted. Pollsters make predictions based on minimal information. Media sources deliver breathless soundbites and everyone wants to be first with Breaking News.
I’m exhausted. I’m sick of hearing each day that Trump has done something “unprecedented”. That word no longer holds value in his case. He hasn’t made a single conventional move since he was on the campaign trail.
I’m going to vote for my choice in March and see what happens down the road. I’ll do some volunteering and make donations. But I’m not getting hurled up and down on this media rollercoaster. It’s unhealthy.
A Ghost To Most
In memorian:
“Thoughts and Prayers”
Patterson
zhena gogolia
He cannot win the GE and will lose seats in both houses of Congress. So forgive me if I panic now. Not to mention he has known since at least the Mueller Report that Putin is helping him out, but hasn’t done anything about it, so I can only conclude that like Twitler, he welcomes the help.
Jinchi
I think it was CNN last night that literally had a headline:
“It’s been four hours, why is the count taking so long?”
Take deep breaths Wolff.
zhena gogolia
@zhena gogolia:
And if anybody asks, “What’s he supposed to do about it?” Here ya go (we’ll still lose the presidency and Congress):
Omnes Omnibus
@BR: You keep posting this. There are loonies who run in every election cycle; she won’t make a bit of difference.
@Cole up top: Thank you for being another voice for not panicking. It is still really early and this will be a long process. What’s more – your average brain-eating space slug would be a better president than Trump, so let’s keep our eyes on the prize.
dww44
@Heidi Mom: Endorse your Thanks.
@BR: Is there a possibility that Bernie would putforth her as his VP nominee. Seriously? I’ve remained deliberately oblivious of Tulsi Gabbard’s candidacy, so the very idea of Bernie even considering her to be on his ticket should he win the nomination, would definitely send me off the reservation. That eventuality would tell me that the Russians had indeed usurped our entire democracy and we gotta go start a new one.
The Dangerman
The trick is NOT who could be better than Trump. The list of people who could be equal to or worse than Trump is incredibly short (shorter if you exclude those either currently incarcerated for heinous crimes or permanently deceased)…
…but if you think Trump is insufferable now, just ponder what could happen if he wins in a landslide. Hell, he won in a squeaker 4 years ago and he took it as a mandate. HUUUGEST win ever. He will be a massive prick if it’s a landslide. With the House probably flipped back (Hello, Speaker Nunes).
I”m not saying BS is a landslide loss but it sure risks it. Hell, even a Sanders win does the “revolution” a disservice as he won’t get shit passed.
Cheryl Rofer
Thank you, John.
opiejeanne
@zhena gogolia: The honorable thing would be for him to step down, really.
I just got my primary ballot (WA) and I noticed that there is only one name on the Republican side. William Weld isn’t on the ballot, and I have half a mind to write him in on the line below Herr Drumpf’s.
The Democratic side of the ballot is very long and includes many names that have dropped out, like Cory Booker, but not Kamala Harris.
scav
People do seem to be as fond of quick and easy solutions (Fitzmas will save us!) as quick and definitive disaster (Three primaries and were dooooooooooommmmmed!). They keep pressing the fast forward in the microwave as though that would make things easier.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: This is true.
opiejeanne
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes. The one thing we can do if Wilmer is nominated is to work our butts off to keep the House and flip the Senate. And flip as many state governments as possible.
Jinchi
I’ve never heard mention of Tulsi, but then again I honestly can’t picture anyone as Sanders VP.
Adam L Silverman
@BR: Here’s a thought: why don’t you do it?
UncleEbeneezer
I’m still depressed that despite a killer field that included Warren, Gillibrand, Booker, Castro, Inslee and our own Senator Harris, my state is gonna likely go to fucking Bernie. Broken glass etc., but Weds is still likely the first day I will ever be ashamed to admit being a California resident. Especially since the only reason we are where we are is because every mediocre, old, rich white dude just HAD to get on the race. I reserve the right to be irritated about that. That said if Sanders is the nominee, at least I will enjoy having his unexceptionality exposed for everyone to see, when he accomplishes no more than any of the Centrist Sellout candidates would (and probably substantially less than Obama).
opiejeanne
@Jinchi: Jane.
drunkenhausfrau
Thank you. I’ve been circling the drain… needed this reminder.
i worry that people are too mesmerized by shopping, tv, social media, eating, drinking… I am traveling right now, and feel like we’re living Brave New World. Or, alternatively, the British miniseries Years and Years was not dark enough.
jonas
I fear this is true. It’s one thing to lose the WH — it will be another level of horror entirely if Trump not only wins a second term, but Repubs take back the House and expand their majority in the Senate. That’s game over. The Dem candidate needs to have long coattails and guys like Connor Lamb (PA-17) and Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) and a bunch of other Dems who won Trump + districts in 18 are going to be in deep shit if Bernie is at the top of the ticket, to say nothing of Dem senatorial candidates like Doug Jones or whoever is running to take on McConnell or Gardner.
John Cole
Sundays are for napping.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Jinchi: Nina Turner.
pamelabrown53
@opiejeanne:
LOL! As ridiculous as it sounds, it does kinda fit.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: He won’t do this. His nat-sec and foreign policy advisors, especially his principal one, Matt Duss who has no actual background in nat-sec and/or foreign policy, are highly skeptical of the US being engaged in the world, the military, and the intelligence community. These are people who think Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden are heroes.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Her name is being pushed by the hardcore Bernie Bros.
lee
Is this similar to 4 years ago? Bernie did well in the early caucuses but then not so well in the later primaries?
JMG
If Sanders is nominated, I will vote for him. I’m pretty certain he won’t be a very good President, but “not very good” sure beats “active threat to the Republic.”
Any Democratic nominee would have vulnerabilities. He’s got a lot of them. But there is of yet (this could change, I admit) any concrete evidence Sanders is a sure loser against Trump. I am so fucking sick of the Democrats panicking and wringing their hands at EVERY political development. The worst of it is that it comes from the top, from anonymous “Democratic insiders” and first-term Congresspeople who only got elected because their voters hated Trump a whole lot.
All that said, it would behoove Sanders to try and bring a few of his Democratic doubters into his tent. It’d do a lot to relieve the panic.
namekarB
@zhena gogolia: Please carefully reread John’s post.
Adam L Silverman
SHOTS FIRED!!!!!
Skepticat
Spot on. Let’s keep mob psychology the default for the Rethuglicans.
Geminid
Even if one candidate has more delegates than the nearest of four or five competitors after Super Tuesday, I think the competitors will collectively have way more delegates than the leader. I think.. We will really know something two weeks from now.
TaMara (HFG)
Yesterday, I stayed away from twitter, FB and all the new sources. I worked, watched a really good movie, walked the dogs. Am I happy about NV – I don’t know, as John said, it’s waaay early in the game. But my blood pressure stayed at a healthy rate because I chose not to listen to the breathless punditry.
I’ll be doing some GOTV for Warren and ignoring the media (except to wonder aloud why Warren is being erased).
Hoping she kicks ass again at the next debate (Tuesday?? There is a debate on Tuesday??) though I probably won’t watch.
Jess
What do you all think of this article about why Dems shouldn’t fear a Sanders nomination? It’s by Matt Yglesias, and I know some of you are critical of him, but he made some good points here, I thought:
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21120061/new-hampshire-primary-results-bernie-sanders
TaMara (HFG)
@Adam L Silverman: OMG, that’s everything.
oldgold
As a corn fed native of the Hawkeye State, and, yes, I am a slow counter, I started early in trying to sort out the candidates. Early on I sailed with Warren. Unlike most here, when Warren cozied up to BS I abandoned ship for Harris.
When Harris’s ship sank ( A copper! Putin?) I caucused for Klobuchar. Well, it now appears that vessel is headed for dry dock.
Where to now? Joe? A piss poor campaigner with a glass jaw, but amiable and solid experience. Pete? So young and inexperienced, but whip smart and vibrant. Mike? Checkered past and tin eared, but has resources and bigly managerial experience.
Do Barack and Michelle need to endorse someone before Super Tuesday?
germy
Ruckus
John
People are terrified that a country that hired trump to do anything, let alone president of the whole shebang, is not a country to be trusted with it’s future. They know that half the country, or thereabouts, is clinically insane for supporting this fucking loser and trying to destroy every societal idea that have taken decades to get to be minimally helpful. And because of that decades of minimal responsibility to the nation and maximal responsibility to the wealthy we have a crisis, actually several crises that are getting worse by the day. On top of that we have a world wide health crisis which requires actual responsible action on the part of a deranged, demented, racist dimwit who has never once in his 73 yrs exhibited any responsibility for anything whatsoever.
It is, to be charitable, a fucking disaster, being fed by our money grubbing media, our history of massive racism, which is not all that historic or past, the wealthy’s fear of losing the game they have been playing with all of our lives for the sake of their bank accounts and one of our political parties in deep with a country that was not long ago our major enemy in the world and is run by a ruthless dictator who still wants to destroy us, for probably at least a couple of reasons.
So yeah, things are a little hectic around the old place we call home but which seems more like a kiddies play pen, with us as the playthings. We’ve got the gestapo running around trying to arrest anyone they can so they can torture them for fun and profit and killing a few along the way for sport. We’ve got the demented leader trying to build walls, both to keep out his nightmares and to keep us in and controlled, we’ve got the TSA to annoy anyone trying to actually travel by air, half our political system being destroyed by racist idiots, who have no idea what the word truth means, nor has any care about it……
So I’d say things are about normal for any system this dysfunctional.
Adam L Silverman
@lee: Perhaps. There are more candidates right now and no one is sure what effect that is actually having. Also, the SC primary next week is an open primary and the state’s GOP has already announced they intend to try to hijack it. The NH primary is a sort of weird hybrid – it isn’t open, but it isn’t closed either, so we don’t know what the effect of GOP voters voting for Sanders or any of the other Democratic candidates might have been. SC will tell us something, but I’m not sure it’ll be a clear message. Super Tuesday is the real contest to focus on. Before Super Tuesday there will be only about 30% of delegates awarded/allocated. After Super Tuesday it will be 2/3rds. Right now it looks like Senator Sanders has a hard ceiling, similar to what he had in 2016. But we don’t know if that is accurate and won’t know until, at least, we get through the SC primary.
mrmoshpotato
@Omnes Omnibus: Hermes for President!
Fleeting Expletive
What exactly is the appeal Bernie has with the Nevada caucus-goers? Seriously why? And why did Warren ultimately do so poorly? I must say the results surprised me. I doubt Mike keeps his pledge to stay in the race since his prickly and haughty manner displayed itself in the debate.
Edmund Dantes
Yes. I am fighting like hell for Warren, and I already voted for her in the California primary (thank you mail in balloting. Haven’t missed a single election since I moved here no matter how small), but come general election. I am doing everything I can to get the Dem nominee elected.
Jess
Also, can someone refresh my memory on this–if a candidate who has won some delegates drops out, do they pass on those delegates to another candidate? What happens if they don’t–for example, if they die unexpectedly?
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: I’m shocked Dems haven’t gone this route more often
hell I’m surprised trumpov’s primary opponents didn’t use it
Jeffro
@oldgold: yes, they do…Biden or Warren
germy
@Adam L Silverman:
Republicans sure have gotten brazen in the Age of Trump.
Adam L Silverman
@Fleeting Expletive: 4% of registered Democrats in Nevada caucused in this election. That’s it.
Jinchi
@Adam L Silverman: That was awesome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: Most Democratic campaign professionals are not very good at what they do. This goes double for the campaign communication specialists.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
Too early for panic. There are 47 more states to vote, most of which are far, far larger with more voters.
Should he end up being the nominee, BS would serve us all better if he immediately stopped calling his supporters “brothers and sisters.” That is straight out of Lenin’s playbook.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: But none of that contradicts a thing that Cole said.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: if this election cycle doesn’t end caucuses and open primaries for good I don’t know what will
mrmoshpotato
@Adam L Silverman: I posted that in a thread yesterday. Best Vicente Fox video so far.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: paging Rick Wilson…serious franchising opportunities here…
Jinchi
I think the delegates are free to vote as they wish if their candidate drops out. Usually they’re pretty committed to their candidate, so that candidate has the leverage of an endorsement, but I don’t think it’s binding.
dexwood
Amen, John, thank you. Panic is for the timid.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: One further point:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/bernie-sanders-doctrine-america-military-foreign-policy/606364/
debbie
@opiejeanne:
Because Kamala dropped out before the ballots were printed.
mrmoshpotato
@TaMara (HFG):
What did you watch?
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: I am with you on this one.
germy
@debbie:
Primary too darned long.
Jess
@Jinchi: Thanks!
Jinchi
@germy: Matthews needs to be taken off the politics beat for a comment like that.
I mean we literally have a president socializing with neo-Nazis today, but he’s worried that Bernie will line him up and have him shot?
Lumpy
The idea that Bernie would pick Tulsi as his running mate is laughable. Her national numbers are abysmal and she brings nothing whatsoever to the ticket. There’s no signs of affinity between Bernie and Tulsi coming from Bernie himself.
If Bernie wins the nomination, I hope he picks Warren as VP. Despite the sniping they are long-time friends and it would be a huge move towards party unity.
Mnemosyne
I’ve only just started reading Twitter in the last couple of weeks and I think I’m going to need to stop because the Berners’ smug “bend the knee” antics are just adding to my sense of doom. Why must assholes ruin everything?!?
germy
@Jinchi: He is paid a fortune to talk about politics on TV. A good example of why cable news shows are often worthless.
That was his old comment. His recent remarks were even more terrible.
Fleeting Expletive
Thank you for that reply, Adam. The media frenzy over early contests is way beyond what I remember in any previous elections. I’ve ordered a Warren yard sign. Only 11 days until super Tuesday. If Bernie has any prospects, it should all depend on his VP choice: Warren, Amy, Stacey–even Pete, to make him seem plausible
And I endorse Ruckus’ comment at #39.
Mnemosyne
@Lumpy:
She’s a Fellow at his foundation — one of the first ones — and they’re constantly at events together. So, yeah, there’s a very good chance that he picks her as VP.
WaterGirl
I haven’t read the comments yet so there are probably 69 people who have already said this, but…
If we stop voting for the candidates we want because we believe they won’t have a chance THEN THEY WON’T HAVE A CHANCE.
Self-fulfilling prophesy.
Let’s prove to ourselves that we’re smarter than the people who think we are dumb enough to fall for their narrative.
debbie
@Fleeting Expletive:
I listened to an interview with the head of the Culinary Union yesterday. She didn’t support BS, but she knew many of her members did. She said she thought this was because while they like their health care, they know many people who don’t have any healthcare and M4A would be a help to them. I’d add maybe they also aren’t feeling much of a sense of job security and they might need M4A themselves.
Misguided or altruistic? I don’t know.
Dulcie
@Adam L Silverman: I caucused in 2008 (the first year of the change), 2012, and 2016. This year was a shitshow, even with early voting. They didn’t make any of the details clear, they didn’t announce early voting early enough, etc. I was embarrassed. It certainly wasn’t Iowa, but it definitely wasn’t like previous years.
It could be the location – I lived in Vegas previously, this year I’m in Reno.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
No wonder Trump’s fond of him. //
Jinchi
@Jess: Just tracked this down
38% of the delegates will be chosen on March 3rd. My guess is we’ll be down to 2 or 3 viable candidates after that, unless someone overwhelmingly dominates. A total of 61% will have been awarded a week later. This is why Bloomberg’s strategy is such a long shot. He either dominates on March 3rd or he has no viable path.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
I agree with you on better than trump but also that we need better than just better than trump. It is after all a rather low bar to clear. I could do that in my sleep and I can trip over a 1/4 inch mismatch in the sidewalk if I’m not careful. It’s still a big country with a lot of fractions that all want to get their slice to the top of the heap.
People are running scared, because we’ve gone so far out of even our crappy ordinary that there is no sense of normalcy. And while an answer is possible and actually may be running for president, it’s hard to tell that because there are so many competing voices telling us to pick someone with no concept of the scope of the job and the requirements of that job. Which has worked out so well in the past.
Cheryl Rofer
@oldgold: Barack and Michelle need to stay out so that their word will be powerful in the general election.
Lumpy
@Adam L Silverman:
In the 70s Congress attempted to rein in the CIA (the Church committee etc), and the idea that Sanders was calling for the CIA to be abolished during this era is not so far fetched. A comparison might be drawn to the people who want to abolish ICE now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA%27s_relationship_with_the_United_States_Congress
debbie
@germy:
Absolutely! Like one year and five months too long!
mrmoshpotato
@Jeffro: Ratfucking Rick’s Grifting Emporium and Day Spa?
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: It depends on who winds up being the Democratic nominee and whether they win or lose the general election, as well as what happens with down ballot races. The primary reason they weren’t done away with after 2016 campaign was because the reconciliation committee that Tom Perez set up to try to narrow the differences between actual Democrats and Senator Sanders and his supporters allowed them to continue through this election because that was one of the demands made by Senator Sanders’ proxies on the committee. Because they are convinced that 1) he does better in caucuses, which was true in 2016, and 2) he does better in open primary because there is a large untapped pool of voters that won’t register with a party, but will turn out just to vote for him in an open primary. They completely ignored the arguments about what would happen in a place like South Carolina because they are convinced that these Republicans aren’t trying to fix the election results to get the candidate they think is weakest against the President in the general, but because they think Republicans who will vote for him in the SC open primary will stick with him and vote for him in the general. They won’t, but you can’t get Senator Sanders, his campaign officials, his surrogates, and his supporters to understand this.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: He is not wrong.
Emma from FL
I have decided to step back from it all. I will vote for whoever is the Democratic candidate because, as John says, anyone is better than Trump. But I have realized that we are coming to the end of the American experiment. A strong Democratic party led by a strong Democratic president might have been able to stop it. Now?
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: We do not know what the future holds. A dozen surprising things could happen, and we probably can’t even think of a lot of them.
A lot of our candidates are in their 70s. Something could happen there that would turn the race on its head. More news could break about Bernie and Russian influence. Bloomberg could drop out and put some of that good ad money to use for our candidate. That’s naming 3, to start.
The only way we guarantee that the narrative that’s over is correct is for us to believe that it’s over. Where’s the guy from airplane when he need him? You know, the guy that slaps us and tells us to collectively get a grip.
janesays
@BR: Tulsi Gabbard is an irrelevant non-entity at this point. I’d be shocked if even half the electorate even knows she’s still (technically) a candidate at this point. Nobody in the non-Fox media is paying any attention to her, and she has no significant following.
She’s the least of our worries.
germy
Cheryl Rofer
@Mnemosyne: I muted the word “Bernie” on Twitter, and my timeline has improved significantly.
Adam L Silverman
@Dulcie: Thanks for the info. It also didn’t help that they scheduled the debate several days into the early voting hybrid part of the Nevada caucus had started. Any real change as a result of that debate won’t be captured in Nevada’s results.
Ruckus
@Jinchi:
I hadn’t thought about it that way but you are right. Would he take any input from anyone? From anyone sane? Probably about the same as trump does. Look how well that’s worked out.
rk
I want Elizabeth Warren. I hate Bloomberg and Sanders. But I will vote for whoever wins the primary. It’s really as simple as that.
Jinchi
@Cheryl Rofer: I didn’t know you could do that. What happens if you mute ‘Trump’? Does twitter cease to exist?
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: I need to watch that every hour, on the hour.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: Fine. Then go ahead and panic. Do you think that those of us who are saying don’t panic don’t live in the same world, that we don’t see the problems, that we aren’t aware of what’s at risk? No one is saying everything is peachy. We’re just saying don’t panic.
Cheryl Rofer
@Jinchi: Probably gets even better
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: I’m going to check with the developers to see if that video can be randomly inserted into every BJ post until the election.
And maybe twice in the threads where we start to fall for the fear trap.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: Not the President, Putin. I don’t keep writing this because I have nothing better to do, but there is a whole lot of stuff that Senator Sanders said and did while on his honeymoon/political exchange mission in Soviet Russia in the 1980s. And all of it, EVERY LAST WORD, DEED, ACTION was captured by the Soviet Union’s intelligence services. If you think the pictures of him in a sauna in his tightey whiteys singing the Communist Internationale that’s been bouncing around for years is the most damaging bit of video, it isn’t. The questions are which bits of video and audio that Putin has from that trip will Putin decide to weaponize and when will he do so. I don’t have answers to those questions, but they concern me greatly.
Nicole
Thank you for the pep talk I needed this afternoon, Cole. I feel better. I knew there was a reason I kept reading your blog in the early aughts, even when I disagreed with everything you were saying. You’re good people.
Adam L Silverman
@Lumpy: I’m very familiar with the Church Committee, its work, and the results of its work.
germy
@Adam L Silverman:
How do we know this?
I mean, he was on his honeymoon, so he wasn’t chasing hookers (I assume). Jane surely had a close eye on him.
joel hanes
If I’m reading the early cross-tabs from Nevada correctly, the Sanders campaign has found a way to finally, FINALLY engage Latinx voters and get them to turn out.
If that’s true, and if he can do even some of that in Texas, I can get over any grudge or misgiving I might have about him (and I have several of each).
Getting Texas Latinx voters active in the Democratic Party would be _huge_. If we flip Texas, the rust belt begins to matter a whole lot less.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Can we elect him for president? He has style, intelligence, and he speaks better english than trump. Of course that is a pretty low bar, having been buried Marianas Trench deep by trump.
Melusine
Reallllllly depends on who his VP choice would be, since there’s a good chance he won’t make through his 1st term without significant physical or cognitive issues. I have seen many family members/family friends as they hit 75+. Decline at that age can be rapid, especially with the stress of the presidency. Pelosi is the exception, not the rule.
Not saying that everyone in that range will fail fast and hard, but few people could withstand aging + unimaginable stress + often grueling schedules + frequent sleep deprivation…Those pics that compare presidents aging between beginning and end of term would likely be exponential in his case. His VP would need to pull more weight than usual.
Just the fact that it’s once again set up as a battle of old white men when there were multiple competent candidates to choose from, and a couple of excellent women…smdh. I refuse to let misogynists or racists dictate my vote in the primary. In the general, if he wins and picks a nina or tulsi as running mate…fuck. I’m not voting for another crazy as likely replacement prez.
How the fuck anyone can justify voting for someone who has an excellent chance of not lasting one term is fucking beyond me. Shows just how deeply misogyny and racism are embedded in so many sick minds. If he wins and chooses a sane VP I’ll vote for them, but it will confirm that self-destruction in the cause of destroying the “other” is just too virulent to redeem. If enough rabid fanatics are that determined to set the world on fire, eventually they’re gonna burn too. And whine about the unfairness of it the whole time.
Shalimar
The election is going to be hell. I think i might tune out from media until it is over. Because you know if Trump has the entire New York Times staff executed on the same day it leaks that Sanders dated a Cuban woman in 1964, it will be wall-to-wall “Is Bernie a communist?” coverage.
Anya
@BR: Too early to talk about VP when the nomination is still not settled but I highly doubt she’ll be anywhere near Bernie’s VP or even kitchen cabinet if he ends up being the nominee. She’s too toxic at this point. Bernie would want to win and he can’t win with her. I mean, what is he really adding to his candidacy. Her base already overlaps with his base and he’ll lose more than he’ll gain with her. I would put odds on Nina Turner as his running mate more than Tulsi G.
joel hanes
@Jinchi:
Take deep breaths Wolff.
Take a last deep breath, Wolff, and hold it for twenty minutes. It’s the best thing you could do for America.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: President Obama has an unfortunate habit, because he is an inherently small “c” conservative person in terms of his own behavior, of waiting far too long to take appropriate actions. This is, once again, one of those times.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman:
I agree.
Anya
@Adam L Silverman: I lol’d so hard. Well played Mr. Fox.
WaterGirl
@joel hanes: Consider donating to Beto O’Rourke’s organization in Texas.
mrmoshpotato
Full screen ad – 7 women to 1 man, beautiful, compassionate, conservative
Robin Williams: Compassionate conservative. I don’t know what that is, it sounds like a Volvo with a gun rack.
janesays
Sure, if you’re willing to ignore literally all of the polling we have available, it’s not insane to think Sanders can lose in a landslide to Trump. For anyone who chooses to live in the reality-based world, it’s completely rational to worry that Bernie might not be able to beat Trump. It’s beyond absurd to think he would lose 40+ states to Trump, as there is absolutely no data which supports that completely baseless fear (and no, anecdata isn’t reliable data).
1972 and 1984 get mentioned a lot in the context of a Trump-Sanders matchup. To anybody who worries about history repeating itself, go look at Nixon’s approval ratings in 1972 and Reagan’s approval ratings in 1984, and then go look at Trump’s approval ratings right now. After you do that, go look at the head-to-head polling of McGovern vs. Nixon throughout 1972 and the head-to-head polling of Mondale vs. Reagan in 1984, and then go look at the head-to-head polling of Sanders vs. Trump today.
After you do that, there are only two possible conclusions you can arrive at. Either 2020 really isn’t particularly comparable to 1972 and 1984 (DING! DING! DING!), or all polling is bullshit unless it supports your preconceived beliefs about how this potential election would actually play out.
The only problem with that is that we know for a fact that polling of this stuff is generally pretty accurate, and has been for decades. There are blips here and there, but there’s absolutely no reason to believe that a guy who has consistently been ahead of the incumbent in head-to-head polling is likely to lose in a 20 point landslide a little more than 8 months from now.
Lumpy
@Adam L Silverman:
The CIA was considered by Congress – not exactly a bunch of hippies – to be out of control. What is indefensible about calling for the CIA to be dismantled? There are a lot of indefensible things about the CIA to be sure, for example the Iran-Contra affair, only a few years after Bernie’s statements.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Trump is “fond” of BS because he knows he will defeat him in the fall, which was my point.
WaterGirl
@Ruckus: If I were asked the name of the president of Mexico, I would only be able to reply: Vincente Fox.
Adam L Silverman
@germy: You’ve missed my point. They have video and audio of everything he said and did on that trip. From whatever he and Jane did in their hotel rooms to everything each of them said. As much as I don’t want to see Senator and Mrs. Sanders celebrating their nuptials in their hotel room, that is likely the least damaging thing that could be leaked. What worries me are conversations with Soviet officials, including the mayors and their staffs, of the three cities he visited. Those can be edited to make anything he said and did seem much worse than it really was. And because he doesn’t have all of that audio and video, and has no way to just dump it out on his own terms and get ahead of it, and because he is notoriously cranky about talking about the trip, which just puts the antenna of people like me up, he has no way to get ahead of any of this. I’m not saying Putin is planning on using this stuff. I’m not saying he will use this stuff. I’m saying it is a concern and should be taken seriously. And because we don’t know what Putin does and doesn’t have, because we don’t know, and neither does Senator Sanders or anyone working for him, what survived in the transition from the KGB to the FSB, this provides Putin with leverage over him. I’m approaching this from a counterintelligence problem point of view, not simply a bad campaign publicity point of view.
Adam L Silverman
@joel hanes: Only 4% of Democrats voted/caucused in Nevada. So what does huge LatinX turnout of 4% total participation actually equal? .5%? .2%?
Adam L Silverman
@joel hanes: We will not flip Texas in this cycle. Just as 18-29 year olds are not going to show up in large enough numbers in the general election in November to swamp the vote of voters 65 and older.
joel hanes
@germy:
I don’t think that the “worse” that Adam had in mind had anything to do with sexy-times or moral turpitude.
Sanders made some rash political statements in his youth. Think Jane Fonda.
opiejeanne
@debbie: I know. I was registering my disappointment at not seeing her name.
debbie
@Anya:
Did you catch the “Paid by” tag at the end? ?
Adam L Silverman
@Lumpy: The Iran-Contra affair was being run out of the National Security Council by a senior USMC lieutenant colonel on the National Security Staff, not out of Langley.
If you dismantle the Intelligence Community you make your elected, appointed, and senior military leaders blind, deaf, and dumb. Should the CIA be reformed, especially regarding things we have substantial evidence of problematic behavior? Sure. Should it be dismantled? No.
germy
@Adam L Silverman: good points. I’m sure his conversations with government officials have been archived and are ready for selective editing.
Bernie seems to be calling Putin’s bluff, though. Talking tough.
Contrast with #45, who talks shit about everyone but Putin.
Omnes Omnibus
Dear god, he did aerobics videos while wearing spandex? Now I understand the panic.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: I didn’t know that Senator Klobuchar commented here using a nym.
Sab
I went back and read Balloon Juice comment threads from back in 2008. We were in hysterics that whole primary season.
Adam L Silverman
@joel hanes:
You never see them together. Coincidence? I think not…//
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman:
My bet is that everything survived in the transition from the KGB to the FSB.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Feel the Bern wasn’t created as a marketing slogan in 2016.//
zhena gogolia
@germy:
kayfabe
debbie
@opiejeanne:
Ah, okay. Here, those who dropped out before a certain date either wouldn’t show up on the ballot or would be on the ballot but any votes they got would not be counted. After that date, candidates who dropped out (ie, Bennet) would be on the ballot and would be counted.
Adam L Silverman
@germy: He also blamed the Washington Post and insinuated this was an oppo dump from one of his opponents. He should have stopped when he was ahead.
joel hanes
@Adam L Silverman:
All my own predictions of what would happen have come a-cropper.
I’ll vote for Warren in the primary no matter what, and I’m encouraged by the news that while the early Nevada caucus votes, which were cast before the most recent debate, went so heavily for Sanders, the votes actually cast at the caucuses showed a substantial swing toward Warren.
So yeah, I hear what you’re saying, but I wasn’t making a prediction. I don’t know how to extrapolate from the change in the Nevada caucus demographics to make a prediction about anything. That’s why I said “if”.
But it seems as if there _was_ a change in the Nevada caucus demographics, in a desired direction that no other candidate has ever been able to effect. We should study how that came about, and learn from it if it’s real.
mrmoshpotato
@debbie: All of Vicente Fox’s videos are paid for by the ghost of Dump’s dead dad.
Fred’s very generous from Hell apparently.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: I would bet that way to, even if it is a losing bet. Because by taking that approach, one prepares and is prepared for the worst case scenario.
Eolirin
Beating Trump isn’t sufficient. It’s necessary but it’s not sufficient.
Trump isn’t the goddamn problem. The Republican party that enables him and the voters that continue to support them and the media that’s complicit in distorting reality in favor of hostile foreign powers are the problem.
We need to beat the Republican party into the ground, not just win the next election. It won’t matter if we win now and lose again but worse and to a more competent lunatic in four years. We’re dying of cancer. Stopping the bleeding doesn’t save us, it just buys us time.
And while we need to find productive ways to channel any desperation we may be feeling to productive ends – if Sanders or Bloomberg terrifies you, find actual things to do to help boost candidates you do like – the primary contest is bigger than just a fight over Trump. It’s a fight for the soul of the opposition to not just Trump, but to the entire Republican party and everything they stand for. Who we pick as our standard bearers matters. We need to win yes, but we need to win more than just now. We need to build something that will endure more than one contest, more than one candidate.
We need to be pushing for leaders that get that and will work towards it instead of against it. That will be effective in building coalitions across all levels of government. And it matters. If everything is just about beating Trump, we’re setting ourselves up to fail in the long run.
The primary process is the time to fight and fight hard for that. In the general we have to fight for who we get, even if they look like they’re going to be a disaster. Harm reduction is better than nothing. But let’s not diminish what’s at stake here by making it all about whether a candidate can beat Trump. They need to do more than that. We need to do more than that.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I’ll be keeping my eye on the Texas Senate primary. If M.J. Heger comes through I think she will have a real shot at knocking off John Cornyn. She has a compelling biography and projects a cheerful toughness. Cornyn is an insider, and I believe that there as outsider vs. insider dynamic going on generally that could work for Heger
WaterGirl
Dorothy Winsor posted this yesterday:
Okay, it’s only one precinct, but look at the numbers:
Warren went up by 19%.
Sanders down by 6%, Biden down by 3%, Amy down by 4%, Steyer down by 7%.
If anything similar happened in other districts, Amy and Steyer should do the right thing and drop out now.
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia: Democrats have done 10-15 percentage points better since 2017 than in the comparable previous cycle. There’s no sign that that trend has weakened.
If St. Bernard can beat all the other Democratic candidates and get 1991 at the Convention, then he’ll be the nominee and the party will unite behind him.
He’s all of 11 delegates ahead of ex-Mayor Pete in 2nd place (and only half of Nevada has been counted/announced as of this morning). It’s not over yet…
Politics is slow. There’s no need to panic.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: Hey, at least I could have come up with the name of the previous president.
joel hanes
@Geminid:
I donated a little to Hagar as soon as she announced. Did the same for the challengers to McConnell and Graham and Ernst.
Because I can’t donate substantial sums, I try to make my modest contributions as early as possible. Early money is like yeast.
sukabi
@dww44: if Bernie picked Tulsi as his running mate it would guarantee he’d lose. I don’t think he’s that stupid, he definitely wants to win.
Jinchi
Sure, but if that leaks in the general election don’t you think it looks like exactly what it is? Why would the Russians leak damaging information on Sanders if he is their candidate? Wouldn’t it be more obvious that it was done to help the person we know Putin prefers? We’ve spent the last 3 years learning more and more about Russia’s attacks on our democracy, including the explicit coordination with the Trump campaign. We have Trump repeatedly on record saying he would take foriegn dirt on a political rival. We have Trump firing his intelligence director for the sin of reporting on Russian attacks to Congress.
One of these candidates has publicly refuted Russian aid. The other has publicly invited it. I’m not sure having Russia leak KGB video works in Trump’s favor.
Sister Golden Bear
@Omnes Omnibus:
Speaking from personal experience,* there’s a huuuge difference between understanding this intellectually vs. feeling them down to your very bones.
I’m extremely privileged compared to other trans women, lesbians and other LGBTQ folks — which will protect me to some degree — and I’m still terrified what will happen under second Trump administration with a Republican Congress given how much they’ve already busy trying to hurt us. Yes it’s personal.
I’m not panicking (yet), but I’m still living with a non-stop ball of anxiety in the pit of my stomach. I suspect over vulnerable minorities are too.
*Understanding intellectually women’s safety issues when I lived as a man vs. living those issues today.
joel hanes
@WaterGirl:
Done. Thanks.
germy
@Adam L Silverman:
Do we know who leaked it? The WaPo is going to do what it does (print a scoop) but did the leaker deliberately time the leak to mess with the Nevada caucus? And if so, is the leaker really pissed off now that it didn’t have the intended effect?
zhena gogolia
@Jinchi:
He’s “publicly refuted Russian aid” but continues to benefit from it and does nothing about it.
And if you think the MSM will make nothing of it, I have two words for you: Hunter Biden.
Eric U.
Joe Walsh told his fellow never-Trumpers to just shut up and vote for whoever gets chosen in a tweet. Probably good that he didn’t advise the rest of us to do that, but that has always been my plan.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman:
I have a bit of personal experience that indicates that continuity was pretty damn good between KGB and FSB, but I’m not going into it here!
germy
I think the MSM would hit a new low if it purposefully spread misinformation from Putin, but they’re all in such competition with each other for the most clicks I’m sure they’d do it gleefully.
Adam L Silverman
@Jinchi: You have to understand how they’re going to use it. It isn’t what the effect it has on Senator Sanders’ supporters or even Democrats who will vote for whoever the nominee is over the President. The point is to turn the information into Facebook ads to micro target suburban and swing voters in the key Electoral College states that the President has to win to eke out a second term. The idea is to scare these voters, whether they’re more moderate to centrist to conservative Democrats or Democratic leaning independents or former Republicans now independents who don’t like the President, so they either don’t vote or vote for the President. It is also intended to be weaponized on other social and digital media platforms for the same purposes as well as to increase the level of chaos. That would be the purpose of releasing some or all of this information as an influence operation.
Uncle Cosmo
I think that’s where we are now: Waiting for whatever progress (however uneven and halting) has been made in the condition of mankind in the last 5 centuries or so to be flushed down the toilet as the darkness descends (‘scuse mixed metaphor). Life will go on, but we will be fissioned into dozens if not hundreds of mutually-suspicious tribes lashing out at one another for whatever scraps the bazillionaires will (temporarily) permit us (before taxing them back & raiding the Treasury to scoop them into their pockets).
I intend to work hard for the eventual Democratic nominee – even BS – for no better reason (& with no more hope) than that a Democratic administration, however tone-deaf & incompetent & vulnerable to destruction by the onrushing Global Oligarchy, would at least provide four more years of breathing space to arrange relocation overseas & found there some sort of refuge for my family & friends beyond the jackboots of the oncoming Fascist States of America. I’d hate like hell to have to do this at my advanced age, but what’s the alternative?
—-
** Just FTR, I consider the first half of the novel one of the best nearly-end-of-the-world stories in print. (Niven, at least, could flat-out f’ing write.) I take strong issue with the post-Hammerfall remainder, wherein the authors indulge some rather noxious political predilections.
Betty Cracker
I hear it repeated as an article of faith that Sanders would lose to Trump. But the polls don’t support that assertion. National polling doesn’t, and recent WI, MI and PA polling also doesn’t. (See here.)
My opinion has been that Sanders would be a weaker general election candidate than some of his main competitors, and I still think other contenders would be stronger. But to give credit where it’s due, Sanders has accomplished things in the Democratic primary so far that I didn’t think he could do, e.g., greatly expanding his support among non-white voters.
My opinion remains that Sanders is irresponsible for staying in the race at age 78 after having a heart attack. It puts the entire party at risk. His campaign staff is hostile and amateurish. A lot of his supporters are flaming assholes. But I think he could win. I think any of the top tier could.
schrodingers_cat
Win or lose BS as the nominee is going to be bad news. He is garnering a bigger delegate share because the opposition to him his fragmented. If you think his being the nominee is going to be a disaster in the general election than the time to stop him is now not after he consolidates his lead. Ignoring all this and saying that vote for your candidate is living in a fool’s paradise. The earlier the ABS is consolidated the better chance we have of him not being successful in the hostile takeover of the Democratic party.
Adam L Silverman
@germy: We don’t know who the leaker was. My guess is that it was someone either in the administration or connected to the President. As for leaking it to derail Senator Sanders in the Nevada caucus? I don’t think that was the point. The point was to 1) divert attention from the leak about Putin again interfering in the election in support of the President, 2) the President losing his shit over that and firing the Acting DNI Vice Admiral Maguire and several other senior career intelligence professionals at ODNI and replacing him and them with Internet troll Ambassador Grennel, noted conspiracist Kash Patel, and other loyalists, and 3) ramp up the chaos.
WaterGirl
@joel hanes: Thank you for that!
I have already blown through my discretionary money for the month with donations. I’ll have more money on the 1st. :-)
joel hanes
@joel hanes:
Both Gemini and I spelled MJ Hegar’s name incorrectly.
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: He does not work well with others and is delusional. He will be a disaster as the President.
Jinchi
@zhena gogolia: Again. Trump has explicitly said he would welcome foreign dirt. Bernie has told Russia to keep out. Trump has been repeatedly asked foreigners to intervene on his behalf in this campaign. Often openly in front of reporters, and he has deferred to Putin against America’s interests time and again. Remember when he offered to send our ambassador to Russia for interrogation?
You may think Bernie is insincere. But Trump is still clearly a Russian tool. There’s not contest between the two.
If dirt comes out on Bernie, it’s pretty obvious who the Russians are backing.
Woodrow/asim
Goddammit, THIS.
I just spent a chunk of my AM having to explain to White folx that panicking is crap, has always been crap, and is, in fact, a deeply privileged position to be in.
I think a lot of folx see risk and have no idea how to act. For me, I look at how my Parents, and so many others, fought their way out of Jim Crow — out of damned American Authoritarianism — and I try to stay chill. I try to remember they did it when they had damn near no political power or options.
if they can do it, so can we — but we can’t do it if we’re panicked. Shit won’t get fixed at all, if that’s the current reaction to seeing one’s lifelong privileges disappearing in the same way people like Sister, here, have lived with for a lot longer.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: No worries, I’ll just request your dossier.//
More seriously, I understand. And my understanding is that the continuity was very high.
germy
@Betty Cracker:
Yes, I agree with all points. And after the 2016 disaster, I’m no longer comfortable predicting who is or isn’t electable. I never dreamed trump would get anywhere near the presidency.
germy
@Adam L Silverman:
That was my suspicion as well.
zhena gogolia
@germy:
They already have. Hunter Biden.
guachi
Are you sure the party would unite behind Sanders?
He’s not a team player. And there will be 100+, maybe 200+ Democratic candidates running away from his M4A and his self-proclaimed Socialism.
different-church-lady
I’m worried that Sanders can’t win the general.
I’m more worried Sanders will take the nomination and then have another heart attack before the general, leaving us with Tulsi as the nominee.
schrodingers_cat
@Woodrow/asim:
@Sister Golden Bear: They don’t understand. If T becomes President again, their relatives don’t have to jump through countless hoops just to be able to visit. No one has called them moochers etc. No one has put a target on their backs
Sanders will be terrible on immigration. He is a racist coot at heart. His senate record reflects that. His new found love of immigrants strikes me as insincere.
Starfish
@oldgold: No. Obama will campaign for whoever the eventual nominee is and cannot endorse because his work for the eventual candidate will be less credible if his preferred candidate loses.
Adam L Silverman
@guachi:
They’ve already started.
germy
@different-church-lady: I would hope the more time Tulsi spends on Fox TV, the less Sanders and his advisors would be interested in her.
joel hanes
@Uncle Cosmo:
I consider the first half of the novel one of the best nearly-end-of-the-world stories in print
Seconded.
The scene with the surfer off Malibu riding the tidal wave over the tops of the hills has stuck with me for [counts] over forty years. And the long drive on a railroad embankment through a flooded Central Valley.
But IMHO an even better end-of-the-world novel is George R. Stewart’s _Earth_Abides_. Pretty fond of Miller’s _A_Canticle_For_Liebowitz_, too.
Does Willis’s _Doomsday_Book_ count ?
Too often overlooked:
Brunner, _Stand_On_Zanzibar_
Chad Oliver, “King Of The Hill”, a short story first published in Harlan Ellison’s _Again_Dangerous_Visions_
https://www.e-reading-lib.com/chapter.php/82872/71/catastrophes.html
James E Powell
Panic does no one any good and despair doesn’t win elections.
Let’s all wait till after Super Tuesday, then have a talk.
zhena gogolia
I’m tired of arguing with everyone about Sanders. In the middle of the night I woke up thinking about him, and a voice said, “Give it up to God.” I can’t control it so I have to stop thinking about it.
zhena gogolia
@zhena gogolia:
But as with Trump, I will never ever ever understand why a single person supports him. Never.
Starfish
@Fleeting Expletive: Warren is courting the flakes, and a lot of old white women see her through the male gaze that our media has created.
There is early voting here in Colorado. A number of would-be Warren voters are holding on their ballots to see what will happen in these other states instead of backing their preferred candidate.
janesays
@Betty Cracker: All of this. Every last word.
Perfection.
sukabi
@Adam L Silverman: “feel the burn” is actually a Super Mario slogan from way back when.
Removed link cause it’s not working correctly.
Chyron HR
@guachi:
Are you suggesting that “Bend the knee, shitlibs” is a less-than-inspiring theme for the convention?
Repatriated
@germy:
Also @Jinchi:
It can’t possibly be Russian disinformation, we know the Russians are supporting him! Must be some disinterested party. *Shrug
Betty Cracker
@germy: Right. Another lesson from 2016: don’t assume oppo is going to destroy a candidate just because it would have in 2004. I happened to be sitting in a pub when news of the Access Hollywood tape broke in 2016. I made the assumption that audio of a candidate bragging that he could grab women by the pussy meant he could not be elected. I bought a round of drinks to celebrate. Oops.
joel hanes
@Jinchi:
If dirt comes out on Bernie, it’s pretty obvious who the Russians are backing.
You will know and I will know and the entire Balloon Juice commentariat will know. Every thinking voter will know.
That’s not enough. We need a majority, and bitter experience should have taught us that flooding the zone with bullshit at the critical moment is enough to dissuade some of our less-engaged voters.
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia: There are a lot of “idealistic” people out there who see an “obviously better” way and are susceptible to those who say that politics is simple. “Just follow me.” “Only I can fix it.”
I was “idealistic” like that once, too. I grew out of it.
Yes, if everyone agreed with me, great things would happen. They don’t. ;-)
Too many Lefty McLeftish liberals (and too many RWNJs) simply can’t accept that only ~ 25% (at most!) of the country agrees with them…
Cheers,
Scott.
Chyron HR
@schrodingers_cat:
Indeed, we should vote for YOUR candidate.
joel hanes
@Betty Cracker:
On the other hand, the bullshit flood about emails and HRC’s speeches and the Clinton Foundation and the pizza parlor seem to have done some damage.
janesays
@schrodingers_cat: This is correct. The notion that all will be fine if everybody stays in through Super Tuesday is insane. All will not be fine. Sanders has comfortable leads in both Texas and California, and if you have five non-Bernie candidates fighting for their slice of the delegate pie (of which they’ll get none if they get less than 15% of the vote) while Bernie gets the biggest piece in each of these states, that’s the ballgame.
The only shot to defeat Sanders is to coalesce around a single non-Bernie candidate, and to do it now. Right now. Not after March 3rd. If they wait until then, he’ll probably have a 100 delegate lead, and every single candidate who has had a 100 delegate lead after one-third of the primaries are over has become the nominee in the last 40 years. If you think we can be saved by a brokered convention where Sanders only has a plurality but not the majority, you’re kidding yourself.
There is one, and only one path to ensure that the person taking the presidential oath next January is not Trump and not Sanders – by ensuring that Sanders does not have a plurality of delegates when the primaries are over. If he does have a plurality, the superdelegates either accept him as the nominee at the convention, or we effectively forfeit the election.
Starfish
@Lumpy: Honestly, he would be better off picking someone who is not also from the northeast. Castro or Abrams would be better picks, but there is a chance that whoever agrees to be his VP will end their own political career if he loses to Trump.
janesays
@schrodingers_cat: I don’t know if Sanders would be good or bad on immigration, but there is no possible way he could be worse than the current president.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
Wonder what they think of Reality Winner.
Reality Winner, Imprisoned for Leaking Russian Hacking Report, Seeks Clemency (Neil Vigdor, Feb. 17, 2020)
Adam L Silverman
@germy: @Repatriated: What do you all think the Wikileaks crap that the MSM ran with in 2016 was? Or the Hunter Biden and Ukraine crap they’ve been running with since Ken Vogel’s first piece in September 2019 was?
Another Scott
@joel hanes: 2016 was a much “easier” race to mess up than 2020. We had a sensible president – it was hard for many to imagine things being as bad as the doom-and-gloomers were saying could come to pass.
Now people are seeing that, yes, it really is a bad idea to elect a monster as President. Yes, there really are consequences.
It’s going to be a referendum on Trump and the GOP. Not Bernie or SP Warren or anyone else.
I cannot see the 10-15% swing towards Democrats and against the GOP and Trump dissipating. Too many people are too pissed off, too angry, too determined, to let some pundit or some troll on Twitter or Facebook change their minds. They know what’s at stake, for themselves, their families, the economy, and the world.
It’s still early.™
Vote for who you want to win in the Primary, and vote for the nominee in the General. Vote Team D down the ticket.
It’s easy. Don’t let the pundits and the trolls make you forget the big picture. Do your part to keep our eyes on the prizes.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: Given that GG burned her in such a way that ensured she would wind up identified, arrested, and prosecuted, all because he believes that the entire Russian active measures campaign that has been ongoing since at least 2014 is a hoax, I have no idea.
janesays
@different-church-lady: There is literally no evidence to suggest that Tulsi Gabbard is likely to be Sanders VP pick, should he win the nomination. None.
Barbara
@joel hanes: The emails and foundation ops and speeches received relentless negative coverage that sustained and validated 20 years of prior demonization. I don’t think we should consider oppo stuff to be inherently effective.
I mean, if someone told me M4A is socialist, I would ask why they favored repealing Medicare and Social Security And make ads accordingly.
Mnemosyne
@germy:
Bernie’s advisors have already been saying in public that they feel that Fox News is more fair to them than MSNBC, so …
schrodingers_cat
@janesays: I am not so sure. Fixing immigration is not going to be his priority he too believes in Fortress America like the incumbent.
Bill Arnold
@germy:
Just for reference, Operation Chaos 2020
They will be picking a Democratic candidate for the SC primary soon.
The Dangerman
@Betty Cracker:
I’m entirely uncertain that BS loses to Trump…
…but I can read tea leaves. Trump sure seems certain he beats BS. See how fast he came out to defend BS against the Russia helping BS thing? That smells about the same as the flat skunk in the road awhile back. PU …
…or the tea leaves of all the crossover ratfuckers gleefully supporting BS.
They, of course, could all be wrong.
At the end of the day, change in the USA happens at a glacial pace. It fucking sucks but it is literally baked into the system. Look at Obamacare. Pretty damn moderate and look what happened. Or look at the fact that, in the year 2020, we still don’t have the ERA.
I don’t know the answer as I’m just not that smart. But the game is what it is and we best learn the rules of the game from history.
Another Scott
@janesays: What lottery numbers should I pick for the next PowerBall drawing??
Who should drop out NOW NOW NOW according to you?? Why should they listen to you rather than people who want to vote for them?
Nobody still in the race is going to drop out NOW NOW NOW. Does that mean we’re all DOOMMMMEEDDD!!
No, it doesn’t.
Bernie has 11 more delegates than Pete at the moment, and they’re still not done tabulating in Nevada.
This race is different than in the past. Fewer caucuses, the states have been moved around (California is early). 4-5 people are running decent campaigns. Etc.
Support who you want, but easy on the WE’RE ALLLLL DOOOMMMMEEEDDDD! stuff, please?
Cheers,
Scott.
Leslie
Written by a Republican never-Trumper … but I’m not sure he’s wrong, though I certainly want him to be.
https://thebulwark.com/the-5-lessons-from-2016-democrats-need-to-understand-if-they-want-to-stop-bernie/
Heywood J.
@Adam L Silverman:
Worst Curb Your Enthusiasm episode ever.
Elizabelle
@Another Scott: I pied Janesays, for just that reason. Way too strident. Tone it down, dog.
And add me to your fan club for keeping us motivated and sane. We need that around here!
Melusine
@Sister Golden Bear: I wonder how living through the stress of the trump era will affect overall lifespans of current adults down the road, especially in vulnerable populations. Should be a class action suit against his klan and the gop to fund care for all the strokes, heart attacks, etc.
Hope you are doing well and continue so.
JPL
With 60 percent of the vote count for the man who screams at clouds to get off his lawn, has 46.0% of the vote while in 2016 he had 47.30% of the total vote. If he were running against one strong candidate he would be ready to drop out. His overall percentage in NH was far less than in 2016. Egos will get in the way so that won’t happen.
Starfish
@Jinchi: No. It is a very nice thing to do. I mute MAGA. Someone else mutes Putin and Russia to do away with all the conspiracy theorists.
mrmoshpotato
@Leslie: Nothing better than a Rethuglican who let their party turn into a shitpile of bigots and imbeciles over 40 years telling the only party that still cares about governing how they should go about things.
James E Powell
@zhena gogolia:
I share your opinion on Sanders and, somewhat, your response. I do get why he has some supporters, but I don’t get why he has as many as he does. I’m so out of touch with the American people, or maybe just American white people.
JPL
@Another Scott: It’s my party and I’ll panic if I want to.
Tom Q
Too many thoughts to put into full-on thesis, but a few bullet points:
Though you’d never know it from TV, we’ve still had only a few small, VERY UNREPRESENTATIVE groups voting — African-Americas made up apparently 10% of the Nevada vote, more than the previous contests, but nowhere near the 30-40% of upcoming primaries. Can we at least wait till the core of the party has been allowed to vote before we call the race? Things ccould look very different very soon.
As I understand it, Sanders actually did (uncharacteristically) fairly well with NV Hispanics in 2016, so this may not represent the broadening of his coalition people are suggesting.
The idea that, if moderates don’t coalesce, Sanders will run away with it, would be true under GOP winner-take-all rules. But since Dem primaries are proportional, Sanders can only benefit so much — if he doesn’t get 40-50% of the vote some places, he won’t have the delegates to win the nomination outright.
What he COULD have is a clear plurality, which could lead his online claque plus some pundits to start saying it’s unfair for him to be denied the nomination. This would be a problem, but not the same intractable Trump vs. GOP problem people are suggesting.
Betty and others are right, that polling doesn’t suggest Sanders would be the McGovern disaster some party troglodytes are suggesting. McGovern himself wouldn’t be, given the demographic changes from 1972 till now.
But he would be the riskiest candidate — partly because of the ease with which his positions could be caricatured, and partly because party unity would be difficult from two ends: the Carvilles of the world screaming “we’re doomed” (and swing-district Dems being convinced to distance themselves), plus Sanders’ innate arrogance likely preventing him from doing the minimal acts required to bind the wounds. Based on his tweet yesterday, he’d expect “the establishment” to bow down.
Still, I think Sanders could win. My biggest issue is, I think he’d be a godawful president — he’s utterly without political persuasion skills, and is far from the forward-looking, party-building entity Dems need, both to dig out of the Trump disaster and to lock in the party’s agenda for the foreseeable future.
So, I’ll do my best to make someone else the nominee — and I think, pundit hyper-ventilating notwithstanding, odds are still good that will happen. But, same time, I’ll avoid any Carville-like “he can’t win” pronouncements that I won’t be able to walk back.
mvr
I know this is a long thread and I won’t be adding anything new.
But thanks for saying this.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
Thought of you when I came across this just now:
Click on the date because you should see the chart included with the tweet.
sukabi
@Tom Q: thanks. That pretty well sums up my thoughts on it as well.
Zinsky
Well said, Cole! I intend to vote for Warren in the Super Tuesday primaries but I will work like the Devil for Bernie if he ends up getting the nomination. I heard the hideous toad Steve Scalise expounding on socialism and how Bernie’s nominations will mean Democrats are going to start rounding up conservatives and putting them into gulags. If only! Let’s elect a socialist and show these brain dead conservative zombies that they don’t have the slightest f*cking clue what they are talking about!!
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
To be honest I could not have named the current president of Mexico. I could have named Vincente Fox as ex president. I couldn’t have named Fox’s replacement before the current president either. However, I’m not running for national political office and someone else is. I don’t think it’s a big gaff but it shouldn’t have been one at all. I can see if one didn’t know who is the leader of Uganda off the top of their head, but a neighbor country and a big trading partner?
Ruckus
@debbie:
It was epic. However, Fred Trump raised shit for brains, and created the pile you see today and we call president. And in Fred’s case the shit didn’t fall far from the asshole.
janesays
@Another Scott: I don’t think we’re all doomed. Even if Sanders is the nominee. I do think the only way you stop him from winning the nomination is by consolidating around another candidate, and nobody can seem to agree on who that candidate should be.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
ROFLMAO
Ruckus
@mrmoshpotato:
Not so much when he was alive.
Mike in NC
Sanders is where he is primarily because our corporate media prefer politicians who are old white men. Women and non-white men are at a distinct disadvantage. The media expect fireworks in a Trump vs. Sanders shitshow of an election, and they’ll get it in spades.
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: I would just like you to know that I have your back, I think many others do as well, including most importantly, Pelosi and Schumer. As I told my husband (who doesn’t trust Sanders) the Democrats in the House and Senate have almost always been more willing to check a president from their own party. He agreed with that.
Barbara
He is where he is because he has a very long head start in name recognition and organization. I don’t think those things are eclipsed by media narratives. And yes, people are nervous about voting for a woman, and that reinforces the advantage.
Just Chuck
@BR: The HHC polls below the margin of error. She has no real following. Hell, Yang is a bigger threat.
Ruckus
@Sister Golden Bear:
A lot of people are in at risk groups with republicans in charge, yes it may absolutely be more personal with some groups, but there are many groups at some risk here. I’m an old white fart veteran with medical issues and only SS as my retirement income. Being a white male doesn’t protect me from trump if he gets to cut SS benefits. It doesn’t protect me if he gets to cut the VA, it harms me right down to me being able to live. And yes, I’m in the least likely group to suffer but that would be small comfort if I’m living on the street without medication/healthcare. At least I wouldn’t be alone out there because if he gets what he wants there will be another major recession or even a depression. And that without someone in office to manage the damage, like we had last time.
My hope is that we manage to beat their asses so badly that they can’t spring back to life and we get enough time and enough reasonable candidates to protect all of us from their hateful bullshit.
Mnemosyne
I have a sea otter video ready for the next open and/or respite thread. Just sayin’.
pamelabrown53
@Ruckus:
Here’s the real danger, Ruckus. It’s doubtful that you would be affected: you and your cohorts will most likely be grandfathered. So it makes it easier to vote against future recipients than kick yourselves off.
MazeDancer
@Adam L Silverman:
Even if they didn’t have the real footage, Trump would just have Russians spouting their fond memories.
The fact they do have the actual stuff is horror inducing.
But maybe it will make a nice change of pace from Trump reading selections from Bernie’s porn writings daily, which is guaranteed he’ll do.
Just wish Bloomberg would do it at the SC debate and then say, “And this is what Trump will do every day, Bernie.”
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
Yep. I noted in a previous thread that people should not just look at the final count, but look to see whether Sanders expanded his base. And he did.
And as an aside, even though I see a lot of stuff written about how Democrats should do more to appeal to Latino voters, the actual efforts often seem inconsistent or sporadic. But I also note that in Southern California, the Sanders campaign people appear to be doing well with their Latino outreach efforts.
We don’t know the state of Sanders’ health, and even younger people have run (and won) while keeping the public in the dark about all of their health issues. I think that Sanders and Biden are both too freaking old, and even Warren, by preferred candidate right now, is not the springiest of spring chickens.
But these are the candidates we have, and I agree that all of them are better than Trump and all of them have a good chance of defeating Trump.
debbie
@Another Scott:
Seconded. Forty-seven states are all ? over all this DOOM talk.
dnfree
@joel hanes: I second all those books. It’s been a long time since I thought about them. Canticle and Doomsday were favorites.
. Did you ever read Willis’s World War II books? I think the first one was called Blackout.
JPL
@pamelabrown53: yup
Mnemosyne
@pamelabrown53:
The VA never gets grandfathered in for protection, unfortunately, so even if Ruckus gets to keep his Social Security, he’s still going to get screwed on his healthcare.
But I think his point is more that whypipo like me and himself shouldn’t assume that we’re safe from the depredations of the Republicans — they’re coming for us, too, and assuming that we’ll be happy to die rather than share the benefits we get with others. And, sadly, they’re often right.
Quaker in a Basement
@John Cole: I am fully on board with your platform. Sign me up for your newsletter.
Emma from FL
@zhena gogolia: As I said above, I’m pretty much doing the same thing. I will vote for the Democrat, of course; but otherwise I’m stepping back and letting things happen (not that I had a chance to stop them in the first place).
Ella in New Mexico
@Adam L Silverman:
This is in line with what I posted on a thread yesterday: it’s why Trump and the Russies are pushing him. They think they can tank him in the general.
If Bernie doesn’t grow a pair and put his ego aside and get out in front of any potential negative/disinformation campaign about his past he’s toast in any general, should he win.
But that being said, I think if he DID grow a pair and get out in front of that shit it might actually strengthen his support.
Can someone get a hold of his campaign and tell him as much?
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
Before you started front paging here, that was the general consensus among Jackals. I was called a troll then, too.
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
I hadn’t seen this link before today. It has me spooked. https://twitter.com/themarschallin/status/1231483521102860288?s=21
Brachiator
@Ella in New Mexico:
I don’t know that Sanders, or anyone, could respond proactively to potential negative information.
Bill and Hillary Clinton had to deal with lies and distortions that a lot of people still believe despite all the facts that refute the cloud of nonsense generated by the right wing.
And hell, Sanders’ actual words and records turn some people off. And some of the known issues are probably trivial to most thinking people, but will be blown out of proportion by his opponents.
Looking back, I think the” swift boating” of John Kerry was a good example of Republicans taking stuff that was positive or at worst neutral and transforming it into a smear that the candidate could not shake off.
charon
@Adam L Silverman:
After Super Tuesday 38% (3/8) of delegates awarded. After March 17 it will be 5/8.
Jinchi
@The Dangerman: Trump didn’t defend BS against the Russia story. He’s the one who leaked it. Then he went out and tweeted Russia Russia Russia the day of the Nevada caucus.
schrodingers_cat
@MomSense: Greenwald was cited approvingly. I have quite a collection of epithets I have been called on this blog for telling it like I see it.
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
Same here. We can take it.
WaterGirl
@MomSense: Was that awhile ago? He doesn’t look that beet red color that Sanders has had for awhile.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
It’s from April 2019.
schrodingers_cat
@MomSense: He floated that idea when T was trumping up the caravan before the midterm IIRC. As a member of a minority that constitutes less than 1% of the population of the United States and who has navigated the shoals of immigration bureaucracy since the mid 90s I know WTF I am talking about when it comes to immigration and smelling phonies like BS on immigration. And it is based on facts not feels.
Jaleh in Aspen
I am glad everyone else is panicking along with me. I made a comment on dkos about this and they basically told me to get lost, so I did. I posted the article in NYT a couple of days ago about Sanders that was pretty damning. NYT, the paper that gave us trump is going to do it again, in the name of being fair and balance.
I am just glad I am not alone in panicking.
WaterGirl
@MomSense: Wow, now he looks much older and a distinctly different color now – especially compared to then.
schrodingers_cat
@MomSense: I can take it. Also elebenty respite threads when the world around me is burning don’t really give any respite. Balloon Juice has gone from a blog that spoke the truth to the blog that wants to hide from uncomfortable truths.
* Elizabeth Warren has not run this race like she is in it to win it.
* The so called pact of non-aggression has only helped one campaign and that is not her campaign.
* But I am supposed to take it on faith that she will eventually prevail because she is the overwhelming favorite of Balloon Juice front pagers and commenters and because Charlie Pierce has given her a cutesy name.
WaterGirl
@Jaleh in Aspen: Not everyone is panicking; many of us are working hard at not assuming the worst based on speculation by people who cannot possibly know the outcome.
Personally, I believe that rumors of Elizabeth Warren’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Topclimber
@different-church-lady:
Come on. I have read many of your comments and you are too smart to believe Tulsi will be vp nominee.
Unless Bernie has an absolute majority in delegates, she gets voted down. Plus I don’t think Bernie is dumb enough to go that way.
J R in WV
@zhena gogolia:
You don’t need to argue with me, I feel about Sanders exactly as I think you think about him. After reading probably 90% of your posts about him so far. I know my commenting has fallen way off lately, but I still read all the threads… and after all else I am still a speed reader.
But we agree about Sanders, and probably agree about Trump as well. Existential threats to our community and our world.
Topclimber
@joel hanes: Yes Earth Abides is a classic and distinctive for its restrained view of a post apocalyptical world.
J R in WV
@Adam L Silverman:
Do you really think Glenn believes that there was no Russian GRU interference in the 2016 election? I don’t, I think he’s desperate to try to make room between himself and all that Russian hacking, after it turned out he was being operated by Russians all the time~!!~
MomSense
@J R in WV:
I don’t believe for one second he thinks it’s a hoax. He’s a Russian apologist/collaborator.
Brachiator
@schrodingers_cat:
I don’t take it on faith that Warren will win. I don’t know that I could say how her chances are based on 2 state caucuses and one primary in a tiny, unrepresentative state.
And I don’t particularly like Charles Pierce.
This is why I am looking forward to Super Tuesday. Things will begin to get more representative.
Ruckus
@pamelabrown53:
Quite possibly true. But even using republican logic from more than 3 yrs ago is no longer operative with the shitgibbon. I go with what is the worst thing possible that he might do. Because that is his way, always do whatever is the worst possible option. And look at it, he wants to take billions out of the SSA and VA budgets. That has to come out of someplace. And I have to work another year, till I’m almost 72 to retire just because of a prior republican economic game of fuck the marginalized. What if there is a recession, will my job still be there? As I said I’m not in anywhere near the same position as say Sister Golden Bear, but I am in one of the likely affected ones. This “president” is likely to do a lot of damage, more than can be fixed with just a signature or two, the shitgibbon doesn’t care how many people in the federal government lose their jobs, as long as he gets his tax break and all the things he thinks he’s owed, none of which he is. I believe that at some level he knows he’s toast and come November he’s going to go ape shit over losing.
So I might not be worried for the same reasons or even the same level but I am worried and I think rightfully so. I am in no way trying to diminish that there are others who will be affected more, many far more, only that there may be millions affected, and many more groups than first appear.
schrodingers_cat
@Brachiator: Fair enough. I don’t know what her chances are either but being deferential to BS of Vt has not helped her.
Jaleh in Aspen
@WaterGirl: Well, even if Sanders is nominated, we’ll have to vote and get everyone else to vote for him. He is a ziollion times better. I don’t know why I’m panicking so much, I think it’s because of the NYT article yesterday.
Brachiator
@schrodingers_cat:
I agree with you, but I think that all of the candidates should have blasted Sanders early, when they had better opportunity to throw up roadblocks against his advance.
schrodingers_cat
@Brachiator: I agree, treating him with kid gloves was a mistake. They should have all gone after him.
Topclimber
@janesays: I am waiting for the moderates to understand that Warren is their best bet.
cokane
@BR: It’s not healthy to obsess about a candidate who got 0.3% of the vote in Nevada like this.
She is not going to Sanders’ VP.
cokane
@Fleeting Expletive: I wonder why a state of disproportionately service employees, who work in companies that absolutely rake profits would find Sanders message compelling. It’s a mystery
WaterGirl
@Jaleh in Aspen: Stop reading stuff where people are telling you what is going to happen and predicting how it will turn out.
Both of those are unknowable at this point. We just have to do everything we can to help direct the outcome to what we think is most desirable.
That does not include spinning about pronouncements by people who who are trying to stop the process before it plays out.
I feel sick about this, too, sometimes, but dwelling in the negativity and hopelessness is not helpful. Remind yourself that only a tiny % of voters have weighed in so far.
brantl
@janesays: That depends on what the “October surprise” is.
joel hanes
@dnfree:
Did you ever read Willis’s World War II books?
Yes. She needed a good editor to force her to remove about half of the words from Blackout and All Clear. Fire Watch is better.
brantl
@Jinchi: All they have to do is give it to a hungry journo, without any principles, what was that bag’s name on the FTFNYT, that Cheney so thoroughly dragooned?
rivers
Thanks, John, for your post. I’ve come to a similar conclusion this weekend. First, panic and worry are bad for the panicked and worried with the added bonus of having no effect on the source of the panic and worry. Also, I ask myself what this would look like/feel like if my ego wasn’t involved. I’d continue to be concerned about Sanders’ electability and health, but I wouldn’t feel anger or hopelessness.
Initially, after the results dribbled in from Nevada and so many were lamenting the state of the future, I felt both. But that’s because I identify with Elizabeth Warren, just as I identified with Hillary – and so Hillary’s loss, for instance, wasn’t just about my grief for the country. It felt very personal, as if I had been attacked. (I was in fact verbally attacked when I canvassed for her in Pennsylvania.) Attacks on Elizabeth Warren feel the same for me.
But I realize that I need to examine my reactions to Sanders’ ascendance, for instance, and distinguish between what bruises my ego and what is worth expending emotional energy on.
Sorry for going on like this, but I’m trying to sort out my emotions. I want to save my energy for doing things, rather than just feeling things.
Raven Onthill
“A lot of folks have been asking me lately if America has ever been in such a crisis before and, if so, what people in the past did to save democracy.
“The answer to the first question is yes, it has, three times, although only once was this bad. In the 1850s, the 1890s, and the 1920s, oligarchs took over the nation’s government, controlling the White House, Congress, and the courts.” – historian Heather Cox Richardson, link
Uncle Cosmo
@joel hanes: I read Earth Abides a couple of generations back & was impressed. And ACFL is also top-tier. I may be a bit biased toward Lucifer’s Hammer because I reviewed it (for a then-major metropolitan noosepaper) when it appeared. Having to read a novel 3 times (and pay close attention) in 2 weeks’ time kind of burns it into your memory.
Connie Willis’s Doomsday Book is an end-of-a-world novel: a small settlement in England unraveling under the pressure of the Black Death. (FTR her two-novel set set in WW2 Britain are Blackout and All Clear. Worth it.)
Another EOTW novel – literally; end of the frackin’ planet – that scared the bejeezus out of me is Greg Bear’s The Forge of God. (Which has a sequel – go figger! – called Anvil of Stars.)
Uncle Cosmo
@BR: Just FTR, are you aware that there is a station on the Serpukhovsko-Timiryazevskaya Line of the Moscow Metro named Tulskaya (Tульская)? 8^O Spozedly named after the city of Tula, but…
I refer to the Horrible Hawaiian Rep as Quisli – short for Quisling.
Cacti
And if by “his youth” you mean well into his 40s.
VFX Lurker
Superb idea. I just did the same thing.
Melusine
@joel hanes: Ellison was infuriating, hyper-reactive, problematic as hell – and a one-of-kind talent whose voice I very much miss.
joel hanes
@Melusine:
The two Dangerous Visions anthologies he actually got published were some of the best reading I did in that decade.
Fie upon him and upon his memory for taking exclusive rights to a bunch of superb material for a third set, and then never publishing it. All those authors got screwed.
Raven Onthill
Sam Wang was asked: “Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically.”
And answers: “The answer is that as far as I can tell, basically it doesn’t matter. More than anything else, a presidential election is a referendum on the incumbent. The one predictive variable is presidential approval.”
Extended discussion: http://election.princeton.edu/2020/02/15/deleted-comment/
Now, Prof. Wang has been wrong before (he ate a live bug on television when Trump won.) Still, he knows something.
Bill Arnold
@Raven Onthill:
Quoted as a reminder to attack D.J. Trump’s popularity.
LongHairedWeirdo
That a lot can happen is, perhaps, the biggest thing to consider. The other is, there are a lot of voting blocs not heard from. He’ll only have a clear, obvious, win if he wins big (or doesn’t screw the proverbial pooch) with those blocs.
If he can’t win those blocs, it’s not a big problem – he won’t get a majority.
If he *can* – I don’t love the man, but if he can win big with the Democratic faithful, he’s as electable as anyone else in the field (I HOPE!!!!). I repeat the mantra I’ve seen: no one knows electability until they get close to the election.” For example, I think John Kerry turned out not to be electable, because he was so dull. People didn’t get outright *furious* that he was being swift-boated and point out that Kerry is a hero, just for going, compared to Mr. “I didn’t want to blow out my eardrum, or go to Canada, so I decided to accept this comfy post in the Air National Guard, and not even complete my term of duty!” Bush.
Wait, didn’t Kerry win big in the primaries? Yes, but I think he won big because everyone *decided* he was electable, and, face it, everyone knew he ticked all the right boxes. If Bernie can win the primaries, he doesn’t have all to box-ticks that Kerry had (and still has, for that matter), but that’s probably a far better, bigger, box to tick than all the “safe candidate” boxes that Kerry ticked.
Betty Cracker
@schrodingers_cat:
Jesus, what a bizarre thing to say.
janesays
@brantl: Using that logic, we should be afraid that literally any candidate is susceptible to a potential landslide defeat because of some nebulous potential October surprise.
Is there some specific thing that you expect to happen in October that would suddenly cause Sanders to lose in a poll-obliterating landslide defeat, or is it just generalized fear based on a gut feeling and nothing more?
I mean… if I buy a Powerball ticket tomorrow, I could win Powerball, but it would be pretty silly of me to spend all my time planning for my future life as an obscenely wealthy gazillionaire while I wait for the drawing.
Brachiator
@Raven Onthill:
Very belatedly, thanks very much for this link…
I’ve asked the question before. Interesting answer.