BREAKING: Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg ends his presidential campaign and endorses Joe Biden https://t.co/zkV8GJymS7 pic.twitter.com/HPmkfCNiG1
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) March 4, 2020
Three months ago, I entered the race to defeat Donald Trump. Today, I'm leaving for the same reason. Defeating Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it. It's clear that is my friend and a great American, @JoeBiden. pic.twitter.com/cNJDIQHS75
— Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) March 4, 2020
OH YEAH BABY!
“Brokered convention” my aunt fanny…keep those fever dreams coming, trumpublicans, they’re all you’ve got!
A grateful direct-mail industry says “Thank you, Mike, for all of the business”. Likewise, the TV and newspaper ad sales departments.
Bloomberg had bought up a lot of talent, which hopefully will be available to Joe now.
He doesn’t want to have to be in a debate with Warren again.
Now do the Senate, Mike.
Totes gotta include the very recent New Yorker cover.
Bloomberg, in top hat and tails, setting his money on fire.
I hope Bloomberg spends a lot of money to get Democrats elected.
Say bye-bye to releasing people from NDAs.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Who will hopefully be able to afford it
Gin & Tonic
@dmsilev: I mentioned in some other thread, one of my good friends who’s an enthusiastic Bloomberg supporter is also, coincidentally, I’m sure, an exec with one of the major NY ad agencies.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He’ll keep spending – his distaste for Trump is visceral.
right, I don’t care. We have a rapist in the White House and a rapist and a sexual harasser on the Supreme Court, God knows how many in Congress, so I don’t care.
So, if Biden wins, what will Obama’s role be?
Now let’s hope he follows through on his promise to spend big on whomever gets the nomination.
Bloomberg could have given everyone in the country a million dollars (maybe not Trump) and it would have cost him less than he spent on his campaign.
I love this dismissal in the WaPo story about Bloomberg dropping out:
The next hurdle for Biden is an endorsement from Obama. Then, it’s over. Even including the shouting.
@Mary G: “I really wish she’d stop picking on me!!”
Elder statesman. I’m sure Biden will be able to ask him for advice, and he’ll be a great special emissary when needed, but his most important job is not to act or be perceived as the power behind the throne.
@patrick II: Supreme Court. If there are two vacancies, then both Barack and Michelle.
@MattF: I really really doubt Obama will make a public endorsement until someone has a majority of the delegates.
This is quite possibly the most graceful thing Mike Bloomberg has ever said.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmsilev: right, Bernieworld would like nothing better than an Obama Cross to climb up on
@dmsilev: Yup. He knows how this stuff is supposed to work, and is very, very cognizant of the importance of norms and returning to them.
That’s why he’s not going to be SoS or in Joe’s cabinet (and probably not going to be on the SCOTUS, either). He’s got too big a power base on his own and recognizes that Joe needs to be his own man.
Being special envoy (ala Carter) would be perfect for him, and he’d do a great job at it.
@dmsilev: Except that Sanders is now claiming to be a friend-of-Obama:
Oh, sure, make us clean up the mess from all those exploding heads. Fine idea, BTW.
Need to work on cleaning up the lines before November. 7 hours for a primary has to be a record. Who knows what November might bring
ETA: I wonder what Trump thinks about their side screaming Burisma and getting crickets. Gotta suck.
From Washington Post:
Not a surprise really. Sad though.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/03/super-tuesday-live-updates/Bloomberg's statement is a pretty gracious “fuck you, Trump, Imma give Joe all the money he needs to get rid of your fat ass”:
I am REALLY looking forward to Bloomberg’s social media team getting under Trump’s skin.
It’s not going to happen while Republicans are in charge of running elections. They deliberately created those lines to discourage voting, and they aren’t going to stop without a fight.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Special Envoy for Climate, to start with? Or (god forbid) if it’s necessary, for Pandemics. Someone mentioned Obama as SoS last night, and I find the idea intriguing, but I think you’re right that a “Special Envoy” role is better. And who knows if he wants a full-time executive job like that. I imagine under non-trump administrations it’s a time consuming job.
Good! And good on EW for taking him on in the second to last debate.
Good riddance, and not a moment too soon.
Heard this on the radio this morning. If I hadn’t been driving I would have fist pumped. Biden is now a helluva lot closer to the majority. And Bernie can suck it.
West of the Rockies
I’d love to see Obama endorse Joe now. Perhaps not monolithically, but Black America has spoken. PBO goes Joe, Joe wins, Trump loses. Bigly.
@dmsilev: I would be shocked if he did. He’s doing the right thing, IMO.
The last Illinois poll I saw had Bernie at 26, Biden at 20 and Bloomberg at 15. That was from 2/20. I imagine one today would have Biden closer to 40 and Bernie about the same or less.
the screaming on the right when Obama starts campaigning is going to be visceral. Be prepared for the MSM and pundits to tell him he should go home and knit in his tan suit. So Joe might as well pull out all the stops and get Casandra out there campaigning too. He owes her and the country an apology for his milquetoast support in 2016. He’s part of the ‘what about her email’ crowd who helped the CDS crowd give 45 an electoral college win. He could have handed Hillary Pennsylvania on a platter if he’d wanted to and he didn’t. He needs to prove he’s going to take everyone’s endorsement and be as humble with Warren and Hillary as he was Pete and Beto. Her base is bigger than Sander’s base. They will actually show up on election day too.
Who isn’t? Although I have to admit that getting under Trump’s skin isn’t much of a challenge.
Reposting this here JIC the last thread is too old?
I need someone to explain to me as non-biased as possible why a brokered convention strategy now is a good strategy but not in 2016?
As I wrong in imagining a scenario where if it happens and it’s vs Bernie and she prevailed would be one thing but if it’s convention time and it’s vs Biden, then you have two loyal bases if Dem party pitted against one another at the convention (Biden powered by African Americans, Warren powered by mostly liberal white women), I have a hard time believing that would be a good thing no matter who prevails ??♀️ especially since each one needs to be TOGETHER for the general?
Wasn’t the fact that Bernie stayed in so long why some folks complained it hardens the division of supporters and did not help HRC against Chump??♀️
@japa21: Wilmer’s ceiling is 30%. He will only break that in California and possibly Washington. He has no expanded coalition. He’s not going anywhere near the White House unless he gets an invitation.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
So Bernie’s new ad is edited in such a way as to make his relationship with PBO seem closer and warmer than it really is.
Its great to see so many folks calling it out for blatant bullshit!
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I could actually see the whole Obama first family as a sort of team SoS.
True. But Bloomberg’s social media team is really good. I can’t wait what they come up with.
According to Twitter it will take only a few days to convert his campaign into a SuperPAC.
Can you imagine Trump being goaded by ‘Hey Donald, why don’t you throw in a billion or two you “billionaire”? Oh wait! Muahaha broke ass loser’
West of the Rockies
Drumph whining about EW reveals how very badly he wants to face Bernie. Gee, I wonder why?
Tulsi, explain yourself. How long will your gift continue?
Bernie must be taking this news so very well.
Between him, Pete and Amy, that’s another 50-75 delegates.
There’s a Karl Rove FOX News clip explaining how Bernie really won the night. If Wilmer had any shame, or was acting in the best interests of his supporters… but he suffers from a smallness of spirit and a lack of character.
Villago Delenda Est
Now, Mike, you parasitic weasel, make good on your promise to throw billions to Dems to hold the House, retake the Senate, and send Donald packing to a federal prison.
@patrick II: I think he’d make a great Sec. of State.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Hillary. Cassandra because she forewarned us all and was cursed to witness it all come alive.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
NPR Marketplace report just credited this morning’s stock rally to Biden’s showing.
The Beast is gonna be chasing Mick Mulvaney around the White House with a fire-poker. At least for a few steps. Maybe he’ll make Johnny McEntee carry him piggy back
I have a portrait of Obama and me from one of his public fundraisers from his first run on my office wall. When I’m old and grey and my grandkids see that picture I don’t doubt they’ll know that my view of Obama is similar to how my great grandparents saw Kennedy or their parents saw Roosevelt. I would be more than happy with him being the “power behind the throne” and if someone could guarantee me he’d win the seat the rest of his life I’d happily campaign to abolish presidential term limits for him.
It might piss of conservatives, but I think you’d be surprised how many democrats would have no problem with him in such a role.
@Yutsano: In fairness, he broke it in Colorado (just) and Utah and Vermont.
@indycat32: That would be 34 trillion, Mike’s rich, not that rich.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I could go for a crucifixion right about now.
@L85NJGT: It’s ‘way past time that people caught on to the fact that Rove’s game is baiting Democrats.
Clearly, Bloomberg is now angling for a Supreme Court seat from the Biden Administration.
// (I fervently hope.)
@West of the Rockies:
Tulsi will keep grifting as long as it’s bringing in cash. After that, she moves on to being a token “liberal” on Fox.
True, so it’s going to take alternative solutions. More absentee, more early voting, etc.; if that’s not possible, starting to warm the tar and collecting the feathers, if not pitchforks, might get the point across.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@lamh36: god, Sanders is, among other things, such dishonest little weasel. Still astounds me that anyone over the age of 22 falls for his schtick
@Spanky: Ambassador to Lichtenstein, where he’s hiding his real money /s
@lamh36: There’s not going to be a brokered convention. Biden will get the delegates he needs for a majority, and that will be that.
Bloomburg could rent every Democratic party county organization a truckload of folding chairs and hire caterers to provide waiting voters snacks and water.
I just read a wonderful post at Kos and thought about you. It’s about voting like the “aunties” . Anyway, it sits atop the rec. list and is entitled: ‘God don’t like ugly’ is what my grandma used to day by Denise Oliver Velez. Sorry, don’t know how to link!
I see #WarrenDropOut is now trending on Twitter, calling on Warren to concede and endorse Bernie for the good of Bernie. Guess how nice they’re being about it.
@West of the Rockies
Until the taos come home.
West of the Rockies
Then a journalist should force her to say that. I know she’s a non-factor, but she is still taking money to spew horse shit. Someone call her on it.
Give Bloomberg credit. He didn’t fall for the sunk cost fallacy. I don’t care for his goals in his campaign, namely keeping Sanders or Warren from the nomination, but he accepted what happened yesterday with surprising good grace for a zillionaire.
West of the Rockies
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He’s a smoke-and-mirrors politician who has accomplished a healthy amount of diddlysquat in his 5 terms in the Senate.
Gaslighting is a bad look for the revolution.
If Bloomberg and Adelson cancel each other out I’ll be satisfied.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Put that way, it shows what a waste his spending was, and even more, how insane it is that billionaires exist.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
NPR’s 1A just used Gene Wilder’s “It’s A-Liiiiive!” from Young Frankenstein to introduce a story about the revival of the Biden campaign. I laughed.
@L85NJGT: This, this, this.
A fellow New Yorker knows.
It will be really sweet if Biden wins Florida in the general after Trump moved there.
I hope this GOP fool ain’t fooling nobody with this ?
MSNBC (Craig Somebody?) just reported that Elizabeth Warren and her team are “reassessing her campaign.” I really REALLY hope she doesn’t drop out yet.
@indycat32: Actually, if Bloomberg gave every American ONE dollar — not $1 million — it’d cost him about $320 million. If he gave each of us a million, it’d run into the trillions. Maybe quadrillions. (My calculator ran out of space for zeroes.) And we don’t have any quadrillionaires. Yet.
@lamh36: so transparent, so spineless, you’d think the GOP was made of jellyfish.
Let’s split the difference, he can just give me a million dollars.
310 Million people times $1000 = $310B = 6 times Bloombergs total wealth.
So he could give every US citizen $200 – not a million.
Bloomberg did not waste that money. Those ads drove Trump crazy and should continue – minus the ‘I’m Mike Bloomberg’ parts.
I kinda wish Bloomy had not felt the need to put it quite like that….
@catclub: I’m appalled that we’re apparently going to nominate Biden, but one silver lining is that it really might put Florida in play. It’s not a lock; Trump’s approval ratings here have been consistently higher than most swing states.
But with Biden, it’s doable. It definitely wasn’t with Sanders, and I don’t think Warren could win the state in the general either, unless there’s some catastrophe between now and November — always a possibility with Velveeta Voldemort!
A practical “fix for the lines “ would be to work and donate to Secretary of State (or whatever title your state level elections exec has) candidates in your state.
@SiubhanDuinne: If it is clear you have ZERO PATH to the nom, you drop out. Painful I know.
As someone else mentioned: “Technically you just suspend your campaign”
I think it’s going to take a new VRA, which may very well require a new Supreme Court. Either that, or pushing through the voter suppression to win at the state/local level and replace the people who are engineering the lines. But it’s not an easy problem to crack any more than earlier generations of Jim Crow were.
@Betty Cracker: And note that winning Florida would lock in a Democratic win in the Electoral College.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@catclub: I don’t know. If she were running a divisive campaign, I’d agree, but that hasn’t been her MO
@PenAndKey: That is so cool.
@lamh36:Answering as I read the thread so apologies if someone else has already responded.
Basically in 2016 a brokered convention wasn’t a possibility with 2 candidates, someone is going to get a majority. Now that we are down to EW, BS, and JB it is the same case–unless somehow EW started pulling down serious delegates. I’m thinking though she will not be in the contest a few weeks from now.
In 2016 the writing was already on the wall by the end of March that HRC would have a majority of the delegates by the time of the convention. There were only two candidates, Clinton had more delegates (maybe a couple hundred more at that point), and because delegates were doled out proportionally, the percentage of the vote that Sanders needed to win in each succeeding contest to get the number of delegates he needed to catch Clinton was increasing (he kept needing a larger share of the smaller pool of available delegates). By the time CA rolled around he needed to win there something like 75-25 which was just not going to happen. That is why people like me were so pissed off at him for continuing to campaign in a way that was damaging to Clinton. Honestly, if he’d continued running just promoting his own policies instead of claiming all the rigged shit, the corporate/corrupt shit, and the other lines of attack he used against Clinton I don’t think I would have minded him staying in but he poisoned a lot of his supporters against HRC and also legitimized bullshit lines of attack against her from March through June.
I suspect, sigh, we will see the same thing play out again because now that almost everyone has dropped out we basically have the same situation in 2020 as we had in 2016 with Biden switched out for HRC. At least that ugly misogny crap won’t be involved.
@West of the Rockies: I think that would be shortsighted. Would feel good in the moment, and would mothball Bernie. But the backlash from Sanders supporters would ensure that even more of them would never come around to support the nominee by fueling their “establishment coup” fantasy. It would also lessen his ability to be an effective surrogate campaigner and party unity promoter during the general.
I have no doubt, zero, that PBO made a few phone calls over the past weekend, or even before South Carolina, and has been maneuvering to enable the incredibly fast coalescence of the moderate wing behind Biden. He’s effective enough there, behind the scenes.
Besides, at this point, Biden doesn’t seem to need Obama’s endorsement. Everyone knows Joe’s already got Barack’s support, but Biden’s gone from practically dead in the water to having the entire mainstream of the party rally behind him, with 20-25 point upticks in polls and now a large delegate lead with a map that favors him remaining, without Obama openly showing his hand.
First smart thing he’s done…
I think the GOP powers-that-be have got to be regretting canceling all those primaries at this point…
…eight months of finger-pointing and infighting, all while president* twitter troll is teeing off right, left, and sideways forty times a day, is going to be GREAT!
Not me. I saw millions of fellow citizens vote for Trump.
Appalls, not astounds.
@catclub: Yes, that’s why I said “yet.” Timing is as important as the deed itself.
With the added bonus of making Betty Cracker’s neighbors’ heads explode.
@SiubhanDuinne: There hasn’t been anything new on her Twitter feed in around 11 hours.
Unusual, so something’s up.
She understands the numbers. She’ll do some figuring and decide what best meets her objectives and let us know in due time.
In case no one has noted this:
These numbers look good.
@SiubhanDuinne: I just hope she doesn’t endorse Sanders.
I know a lot of Bernie and Warren supporters are disappointed by yesterday’s results, but one should always keep the long view in mind. Yesterday, in a deeply blue Texas district, Jessica Cisneros defeated Henry Cuellar, an anti-abortion, pro-fossil fuel Conservative Democrat. She did it by organizing the people in her district. Organization and solidarity, precinct by precinct, neighborhood by neighborhood, is the only way for the New Deal rebuild and reestablish a progressive, democratic America. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/addybaird/progressive-primary-texas-henry-cuellar-jessica-cisneros-aoc
Old Dan and Little Ann
@catclub: So basically Bush’s tax cut. I remembered getting my $200 check. It was well needed but I knew it was bullshit. It sure helped shrub, though.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah, his good buddy Obama. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/sanders-obama-primary-challenge/606709/
@lamh36: So, no one seems to have answered your ask —
I don’t think anyone thinks a second round convention is a particularly good idea. It is much better to have a solid consensus around one candidate. But because of the new rules and the large field this year, a contested convention was more likely. As Bernie fades, and the group embraces Biden, it is possible that Biden can win the majority of delegates available to avoid a second ballot. But it is also still possible that neither Bernie nor Biden will reach the magic number (1,991) for the first ballot when no super delegates vote (sorry Keith Ellison!). If it goes to a second ballot, where the automatic (formerly super) delegates get to vote, the candidate would need 2,376 votes (actually maybe 2,375.5 because some people actually only get extra half votes in the second round, no I don’t understand it either).
So, as I understand it, Sanders was banking on winning a plurality of votes, not a majority, in the primary then allowing his to argue that the vote leader should be the nominee. But it looks like Biden is likely to be the vote leader, even if he does not hit the magic 1,991 on the first ballot.
So, it would be best to avoid a contested convention, but it wouldn’t awful in the current circumstances compared to those a week ago.
@Another Scott: I got an email from her (campaign) at 8:03 this morning, and it sounded like “full speed ahead.”
@sherparick: oh wow. That’s news.
@Marcopolo: I see you also posted an explainer. Thanks.
@JPL: Oh god, I do too.
He would, of course, but would Michelle be up for anything that involved moving back to DC?
Whatever you say about Bloomberg as a candidate (hate him) his campaign apparatus that was built is a BEAST! To have it behind the eventual nominee against Trump, is HUGE!!
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Not sure he’ll need to. From what I read, Bloomberg has paid them until November. They could volunteer for Biden and still be fine financially.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
(ETA: From your link) was there some kind of recount?
@Jeffro: During the impeachment times I thought that the Ukraine thing had damaged Biden a lot, and had eliminated a weak candidate, too early, to maximally benefit the GOP. Because those
lies would never get to be used in the general.
Just like everybody else, I know nothing.
West of the Rockies
I’m sure you’re correct. I’m just sooo bloody tired of the flapping hands and pious pontificating from a guy who has accomplished little.
@Marcopolo: Any idea how the real id requirement could affect turnout? It think it’s a requirement for the general and I’ve read that its a PITA to get one.
@Betty Cracker: I am sad to think that the biggest catastrophe facing Florida before the election is probably the loss of hundreds of voters in the Villages alone.
But never say things can’t be worse!
@JPL: I am not sure it matters at this point. Warren did no better than third anywhere and was fourth everywhere else. Even in California. She trailed Bloomberg in the larger states. However, if she decides to suspend her campaign, I hope that she either holds her powder, or endorses without reservation. I heard that John Edwards tried to broker his endorsement of Obama with an agreement that he would be VP. Maybe Obama’s team had already heard rumors of Edwards’ marital dalliances, or maybe they just didn’t need him, but they told him no, and he endorsed anyway. Thank goodness!
A practical reality of dying campaigns is the money drying up, and letting the paid staff go. Sucks, but that’s the deal.
@Roger Moore: Chief of Staff AND senior advisor.
maximal GOP heads asploding
Just since nobody’s saying it, it is possible that this was precisely Bloomberg’s motive for entering the race; to boost Biden and damage E.Warren’s and B.Sanders’ campaigns. He’s often fairly cryptic about his motives. (This was my first thought when Bloomberg entered the race, FWIW.)
No matter though; if he makes good on his promise of support for Biden, and especially if that means effective attack ads and social media campaigns against D.J.Trump, i’m OK. Just no attacks on down-ticket Democrats, please.
@lamh36: Wow! Twitler was mocking Bloomberg and saying he would now fire Tim O’Brien. O’Brien tweeted back that he isn’t going anywhere, but keeping the whole staff is way more than I thought would happen. Awesome.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: reminds me, though, that Marie Newman’s primary against that asshole Lipinski is coming up. IL votes 3/17?
Pales in comparison to the unfathomable disaster of someone in Celebration painting their house the ‘wrong’ color.
@SiubhanDuinne: Unlike Sanders, Bloomberg should be welcomed to the party with open arms. If Bloomberg follows through with the money he should have a position in the administration.
thank you both
Sorry, I do not think this is accurate. The most current numbers give Cuellar a narrow win which is unfortunate because I do think that district deserves a more progressive candidate.
Here is the election link for that district from the NYT
Final result was Cuellar 51.8% Cisneros 48.2%
If I had to guess, I don’t think Warren would endorse either Biden or Sanders if she drops out. She’ll just say she’ll do everything for whoever the nominee is and ask her supporters to vote their consciences.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think his hope just made him read the headline backwards. I would have preferred Cicneros to Cuellar. The man is an ass. But that district which reaaches from San Antonio to the Valley is pretty rural and pretty conservative. I lived about 1/2 mile from that district, in what is now Texas 35th.
@Bill Arnold: I am pretty sure that Bloomberg entered to win, when it looked like Biden was a terrible campaigner who would not win, so either Warren or Sanders was a live danger. And he thought he would win. Now he has learned he will not win the Democratic Nomination, he drops out.
But he entered because he thought Biden had no chance, and he could beat Warren and Sanders. Not to help Biden.
@Betty Cracker: I will recapitulate my comment in the prior thread. I think Biden is in the race because Sanders is in the race. I know how disappointed you are — more so probably than I am, mostly I am just exasperated — but it was either both stay out or both jump in. Florida and Arizona are probably both marginally more gettable with Biden versus Warren or Sanders.
Market decline is especially fearful for elderly retirees with the means to supplement their Social Security with invested savings.
The real wild card is, Florida is going to be disrupted by Covid-19. Its economy depends on tourism, so measures to avoid it, like reduced discretionary travel, will hurt Florida. If notwithstanding those measures the virus takes hold, then it will not just hurt economically. I am still gobsmacked by how incompetent the CDC’s response has been. And to boot, by declaring an emergency, it hamstrung the responses of state public health authorities by preventing them from being able to implement their own testing programs
ETA: Trump’s continued focus on the stock market, e.g., rate cuts, just underscores how clueless he is but also how afraid he is, because everyone knows that his strategy was to go around the country beating his chest about economic growth and stock market gains.
No, he shouldn’t. Buying the presidency is bad, and so is buying a Cabinet post.
@Amir Khalid: Bloomberg does not want any position in any administration in which he is not the executive at the top of the chain. He would rather be Mayor of NYC or Governor of NY. Guy does not want other people to tell him what to do.
@NotMax: Sandra Cisneros (the author) lived around the corner from me in San Antonio. She painted her house bright purple and people went a little crazy. It was a neighborhood build in the 1890s mostly and back then, the brightest color was the thing! So she had history on her side when she fought back.
I hadn’t seen that! Hooray! I’ve wanted Cuellar replaced (tho not by a Republican) since W
Edit: darn, it’s not true.
Ummm…did you read the article to which you linked?
A Ghost To Most
Please do not let perfect be the enemy of the good. The party is uniting; let it.
@A Ghost To Most: Whispering words of wonder, huh?
@Betty Cracker: Seconded. I mean, I’m not appalled. I’m disappointed. But there’s a large silver lining here, and the possibility of flipping Florida, which would be just about enough to overcome the entire EV deficit from ’16, is pretty enticing.
As you point out, Biden has the ability to do that, where I just don’t see any way Warren would win there. And Sanders would be dead in the water in FL with the whole Castro thing.
Whatever we might think of Biden, I think last night made clear for me that, if nothing else, the general election with him in it vs. Trump makes it almost entirely a defensive campaign for Trump. Biden should win Pennsylvania fairly easily. He will have solid AA support in Michigan which should allow him to outperform Clinton there. He will make Trump campaign vigorously in Florida. Virginia is now looking like a solid blue state and it overwhelmingly backed Biden, so it’s not really a reasonable target for Trump this fall if Biden’s the Dem. North Carolina and Georgia will be in play for Joe. So will Arizona. I can’t think of any states Clinton won, offhand, that would become good targets for Trump to expand his EC map, if Biden’s the nominee. Whereas he will definitely go on the attack in Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia if his opponent is Sanders or Warren
ETA: Biden also has the immediate full support of the Dem base outside of BernieBros, which means he might look surprisingly strong in early polling in places that shouldn’t even be competitive. For instance, if he comes out strong in someplace like Ohio or (gasp) Texas? The whole campaign takes on a completely different look for Trump.
Additionally, by converting to primaries, and pushing the California primary up on the calendar, made the slope for the trailing campaign even steeper.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes, March 17.
Missouri’s D establishment just made their preference known (not a surprise who they chose :)) ahead of our primary next Tuesday:
Carnahans, former Gov. Bob Holden endorse Biden ahead of Missouri primary
That only leaves Claire McCaskill, Lacey Clay-MO1, and Jason Kander. Nicole Galloway, who is running for Gov has said she will not endorse ahead of the convention
I would think Biden would win the primary here but I think in 2016 it wound up being pretty close.
I know many others have ppinted this out, but if Bloomberg had burned through $400 million supporting Biden instead of himself, it might have been more effective.
@Mary G: Remember when a $130k payment by Micheal
Cohen to Stormy Daniels was an illegal campaign contribution? how about a donation of a huge political organization?
The funny thing is. The GOP has kneecapped the FEC so it does not even have a quorum for any action. So illegal contributions from Bloomberg will get no response.
law of unintended consequences. Trump will be apoplectic if somebody ELSE is cheating against him and not being punished.
@Fair Economist: I may not always like it, but Nancy Smash holds her conference with love and power:
@L85NJGT: I really don’t like California going so early. I think that’s an error. It’s too many votes, too early.
Even two weeks later would be a lot fairer.
@catclub: That is a really good question — the easy way around that would be for Bloomy to form a non-profit, like “Billions of Votes” and run his organization not as a party apparatus, but as a voter outreach group not coordinating directly with the campaign.
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Pretty sure the math doesn’t work on that one, although I understand the sentiment. For what Bloomberg spent he could have gave everyone about a dollar-fifty
ETA Hungry Joe got there first. And Catclub, and…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Bolden for good advice. I think as a party (and as a blog) we are too focused on the presidential race. Not only McConnell’s gotta go, but state AGs and SoS are key
@Marcopolo: We will see what happens very soon, but I do not think this is going to play out like 2016. Sanders has turned off a lot of people since then. His ceiling seems to be around 35% and that will be exposed in a 2 person race. Biden is going to trounce him in the remaining primaries.
Agree. A little later in the process would have been better.
@lamh36: the last timethere was a brokered convention
@sherparick: Did she! That cheers me up! The last update I heard last night had Cisneros trailing…
ETA: Crap, it’s not true. :(
@Immanentize: Correct. He’ll just convert his campaign apparatus to a Super PAC and as long as he avoids directly coordinating with Biden’t campaign he’s not violating anything and can drop as much cash as he wants on ads, mailers, events, and whatever else he wants.
@Shalimar: As I noted, there also won’t be the misogyny issue with Biden. And Biden is probably just generally more “liked” (unfair as that is) than Clinton by the broader D electorate.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: and not on the same day as Texas, both very expensive states to campaign in
How about a national agreement to hold primaries on the weekend, voting from Friday at noon to Sunday at 7 or 8? and we tell the networks they might not get instant results. Of course, as Tom Perez pointed out yesterday, states pay for and I assume have to approve changes to primaries, and places like TX and GA may not cooperate.
It is my nature to, even in the pits of despair, eventually lift my head up and look for a bright side, and while I am sick to my stomach that Biden will not do anything to deal with the rampant corruption the GOP has been bringing into gov’t for the past 40 years, it is what it is, and he’ll certainly be miles better than the current nightmare, and better on judicial appointments, which is really important. It’s just hard, when I remember Anita Hill, and the bankruptcy reform, and so many other times he has voted to keep Things The Way They Are. Not because he’s a bad person; I do think he’s one of the good ones, but because he’s old, and things were a certain way when he was younger, and Congress was a certain way and I think he’s someone who likes to be liked and hasn’t really taken in, in a gut sense, that the GOP people he’s been friends with in Congress are not who they were 40 years ago. The current GOP needs its clock cleaned, and it’s not going to happen with Biden; I foresee him making the same mistakes Obama made, in thinking these people could be negotiated with.
But then again, as terrible a candidate as he was in ’88 and ’08, I thought this time no way he’d be even close to being the nominee, so please, please, God(dess), may I be as wrong about this as I was about that. ;)
And, you know, I do think he’s non-threatening enough that a few of my wavering Republican relations might, dare I say it, vote for him (and most of them live in a swing state). To talk to them, and hear their policy positions, they talk like Democrats, and are, I think, clinging to voting GOP out of sentimentality and daddy issues more than anything else , so this would be a step forward for them. Trump’s overt racism has done a lot to turn them off, and the GOP falling in line behind him hasn’t done their loyalty to the rest of the GOP any good.
And so it goes. You pick up and keep fighting. When I was born, women couldn’t own a credit card in their own names and homosexuality was considered a mental illness, and every single President had been white and I’m not a half century old yet. Things get better. Too slowly for most of us, but they do.
So there’s my silver lining.
@Marcopolo: Oh fudge. That sucks.
@Old Dan and Little Ann: uh, that money was solely added to the tax cut by democratic house members (and passed by both them and democratic senator)! bushwack only signed the bill and then took credit for something he never did , which you now just posted,.
@Betty Cracker: It appears that Cuellar won. Link to Marcopolo’s comment above.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: We need to figure out what we want before we can see what we can get the states to do.
@MCA1: I would rather see Trump whining about being treated unfairly.
I also recommend Bloomberg saying that the Bloomberg news organization will be as unbiased about the campaign as the Trump organization is.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I don’t know. Here’s an article from Bloomberg news in January saying he spent a $250 million in political ads since entering the campaign. The US population is about 350 million, so it wouldn’t be a million per person at the end of January, but I don’t know what he spent since then.
In other news,
(LA Times just now). With testing finally starting to ramp up, expect a lot of this all over the country.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: +1.
But in Texas’s case, it looks like things like the closing of voting locations was done at the county level. (The Texas SoS is a long-time (apparently conservative) Democrat.)
We really do need to compete and win in every race we can, not just in the big ones.
This citizen WILL NOT be denied
@Villago Delenda Est:
Trump will pardon himself and everyone else as he goes out the door. I suggest a different approach. With all the baby snatching and child abuse at our southern border, send everyone involved to The Hague. I am not sure the USA will be up to the job either legally or politically.
@Shalimar: That’s what my gut (though maybe it’s my heart) tells me, too.
A lot more people are aware of Sanders’ tendencies and inoculated against his bs now than were in ’16. There’s also, as evidenced last night, seemingly an urgency amongst most D voters to turn their attention outward and get Cheetolini the fuck out of the Oval Office, so there’s going to be a lot less tolerance for Sanders continuing if the math doesn’t really hold up after next week’s contests. People aren’t searching for justification for not supporting Joe Biden right now the way there were evidently very open to being supplied with excuses not to rally behind Hillary Clinton four years ago. Existential threat and all.
@catclub: It’s funny (ok not really funny, but still): the House impeaching trumpov meant that the full Ukraine-slime scheme against Biden got a full airing. The whole country is fully aware now of what trumpov & Co were up to, so…good luck continuing that line of attack, GOP. Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi already pants’d y’all on that one.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t have any reservations about California or Texas going early, but where there are so many candidates I can see that early voting is problematic for a primary contest, e.g., multiple candidates dropping out prevented people from casting a more meaningful vote. So perhaps the party could work with states to time primary calendar so that voting doesn’t start before a certain date, with the in person ballot being timed accordingly.
@Betty Cracker: Is there any sense that the change in voter laws in Florida last election is going to have an impact? I know the Republicans have been fighting it with all they’ve got, but considering how often the state has been split 50/50 under the old laws it seems like it could be a game changer.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
To which I would add: under-learned the lessons of the 2018 mid-terms
Assuming the entire country isn’t shut down due to coronavirus quarantines, what will happen is that Obama will generate MONSTER rallies of 100,000+ people with all the hottest special guest musical performers like Springsteen or Beyonce or Taylor Swift and they will absolutely blow away the pathetic pasty white MAGA rallies that Trump is trying to drum up. It will be like the inauguration crowd sizes all over again. Obama will utterly get under his skin and make Trump even more unhinged. And it will be beautiful to watch.
Obama is tanned and rested and still young. I expect him to go all in for Biden and spend the entire fall on the campaign trail blowing Trump away at every stop.
It’s going to be in (nearly) every country soon, if it isn’t already (but just not sufficiently tested for yet).
There are cases in NY, so I expect (from the Acela corridor, Big Bus, etc., travel up and down the coast) that it will be in MD, DC, and VA soon (if it isn’t lurking already).
The CDC has (for whatever reason) really dropped the ball on this and we need a quick and unbiased investigation as to why. We know that this type of infection (new, no immunity) is going to become more common over time and we need the best possible systems to minimize contagion.
@MCA1: Picture Biden running…
…with Harris as VP
…with Obama out there campaigning for him
…with 2020 essentially a referendum on trumpov
…after eight more months of president* twitter troll venting his spleen twenty times a day
@Chyron HR: I would be shocked if she endorsed him after everything
@Jeffro: That’s all going to be down to how he media decides to do their reporting, as the GOP and the Russians try to make it a going concern again. I don’t think enough people were paying enough attention to really get that the only story there is that Trump was trying to smear a rival.
If the media vanishes that part of the story and spends a few months talking about how there are questions about Hunter Biden’s employment and we get a drip feed of leaked emails, many of them doctored, we may be in for a rough time.
Biden is generally going to be hard to smear, because people like him and think he’s a genuinely good person, but the story has the benefit of, while being perfectly legal, feeling unethical. I don’t think many people think an unqualified person getting a good paying job because of family connections is fair, even if it isn’t something that rises to the level of actual illegality or corruption.
We need to be able to turn the attack line back on Trump and get the media to focus on making that comparison, which makes the Hunter stuff look like nothing, and they’re not going to do that willingly. Those asymmetries are a huge problem.
@Jinchi: Unclear at this point. A court overturned the restrictions but as far as I know, that only applied to the plaintiffs in the case, so more action will be needed to apply it broadly. Counties, organizations and individuals have been stepping up to fast-track rights restoration, but my sense is it won’t change in time to have much of an affect on 2020.
What an incredibly strange and stupid campaign
@Barbara: I like California’s schedule just fine this year. In 2016 we got to vote sometime around June and had no impact whatsoever. Considering that the votes aren’t even tallied yet it hardly even affects the takeaway of last nights election. So our vote gets to count but not so overwhelmingly the results in smaller states are ignored.
We’ve also got lots of other races on the ballot and it’s good to have an engaged electorate.
@sherparick: That’s wonderful news! I got the impression she didn’t stand much of a chance.
@AliceBlue: She lost.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: How does Nate Silver know at this point whether the “lesson” from 2016 (it’s not like everyone agrees what that lesson is, exactly) has been “overlearned” in 2020? The hubris of the commentariat is truly astonishing.
It is often as much about the money as anything else. Modern campaigns are INCREDIBLY expensive to run. You have hundreds of staff to pay, hundreds of offices to rent, all kinds of leased equipment from cell phones to computers to pay for. Once the fundraising stream dries up as it most likely is for Warren, you pretty much have to shut things down if you aren’t a billionaire.
If you are doing a non-campaign campaign like Duval Patric was doing then there really isn’t an operation to fund so nothing really to shut down. But Warren can’t start closing offices everywhere and lay off staff because the money is gone while still claiming with a straight face that they are moving forward.
@MattF: Leave Obama alone. Ex-presidents don’t endorse, except in the one weird case where your spouse is running. Let him do as he pleases.
Anyways, Biden should cruise to victory unless he reveals some good reason to not vote for him.
@Jinchi: Right, and people don’t have to vote early, since they can postmark their ballots on the day of the primary. I am simply saying that states with significant early voting end up going earlier than the schedule appears to suggest, and it might be a good idea to consider whether that could lead to some adjustments, not just for California.
@Jinchi: One potentially really good thing about Biden doing so well after SC and SuperTuesday is that great results in Iowa and NH and Nevada apparently don’t mean much of anything going forward. Maybe the press and the pundits will take them as small, unrepresentative races and not blow them all out of proportion any more. Maybe the press and the pundits will take the primaries as a 400+ meter race and not 40 yard dash?
I don’t think that Iowa and NH and even Nevada are going to be willing to give up their early positions. That’s fine, if people don’t blow them all out of proportion…
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Dorothy A. Winsor: OK. I went to get my mail and on the way thought painfully slow thoughts about the math. So, in order for Bloomberg to have spent a million per person, he’d have had to spend $1million times 350 million, so there’d be a whole lot more zeros than currently exist. Good to know.
@Jeffro: Good point about Obama. I think having him on the campaign trail would inject a lot of enthusiasm that the Biden campaign needs.
It’s one reason I’m sure he’ll wait until the nominee is selected before stepping forward. Dems need him for the battle against Trump for the prize not the contest between each other.
A Ghost To Most
@cokane: If only Hunter Thompson were here to write about it.
@SiubhanDuinne: You can still vote for her. The ballots are already set. I voted in Virginia and there were lots of candidates on the slate who had already dropped out.
What lessons from 2016?
That the NYT was utterly negligent in it’s coverage of Trump along with the rest of the media? Has that been “overlearned”
That we are under attack from foreign actors trying to rig our elections?
That racism and misogyny are rampant?
That the Republican FBI director deliberately rigged coverage against the Democrats?
That the GOP Senate was complicit in Russian meddling?
Have we really learned all of those lessons?
@AliceBlue: Maybe next time.
@Hungry Joe: That’s just gastritus.
@Another Scott: You’re more of an optimist than I about the possibility that the press will learn lessons from the election.
@Another Scott: But Iowa in particular sucks up so many resources that could go to other states. The claims of these early states means that people are not deploying resources in other states. This, it seems to me, is one thing that really did hurt Warren. She spent so much time in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Great example of how fake news works. Someone whose name we see often tells us something plausible that we want to believe is true. But it is not. Then we are sad and doubt all sorts of other things.
I notice the original source in this thread never returned to apologize or correct the record. Also a classic aspect of fakery and disinformation.
Baby snatching, child trafficking, kids in cages, child abuse. Not even one national Republican raised a voice against this.
This is a U.S. immigration judge: “Want me to go get the dog?” the judge yelled at a 2-year-old Guatemalan boy. “Do you want him to bite you?” .
@Another Scott: I just read that in this year’s DNC rules, you actually get bonus delegates for going after March 3 (I think the date was). That is a helpful rule that can be expanded.
I share your questions.
@Mallard Filmore: Shit. That just upset me so. These people really want Bull Connor to be back in charge, don’t they?
According to Michelle Golberg’s coverage in the NYT last week, the real lesson of 2018 was not that the electorate changed. We had basically the same electorate in 2018 as we had in 2016. What happened is a lot of previous Trump voters in the center flipped. It wasn’t a massive wave of new voters. It was a lot of fairly middle of the road suburban type existing voters who went Trump on a whim in 2016 but flipped back to Dem in 2018 once they saw what Trump really was.
The question for 2020 is whether these middle of the road folks are more likely to stay Dem with Biden as the candidate or Sanders. I think the answer is self-evident.
2018 didn’t generate a massive wave of new young ideological voters. And so far to date the 2020 primary campaign isn’t either. You go to war with the electorate that you have, not the one you might wish to have.
@Barbara: I’m curious to see if Warrens numbers improve and Biden’s drop a bit in California as the mail in ballots are counted. It’d be a pretty good way to measure the impacts of South Carolina and expectations on the choices voters make.
On the down side, if it comes out like I predict it would mean that Warrens voters decided this wasn’t her year and switched to optimize their impact.
There’s a Reddit post on the front page right now where the Bernie people are lamenting the low youth turnout. (A correct analysis IMHO).
The article you linked to says the opposite. That Cuellar defeated Cisneros not the other way around.
Trump will pardon himself. It’s possible he’ll do it in some way so stupid that it’s not legal, but unlikely. It would just be funny. He may, may pardon members of his family because he sees them as parts of himself. Everyone else is fucked. Loyalty goes in only one direction.
I would too.
Martin Longman explained the dilemma quite well – Democrats could continue with the suburban electorate which delivered in 2018, or go with Wilmer’s bag of beans and hope for bringing in new voters.
EW was the probably the best positioned candidate for the former, but couldn’t bridge the gap to non-college educated women, and Bernie has lost voters relative to 2016, so here we are.
There was nothing unethical about it.
@indycat32: Your math seems suspect.
@lamh36: I’ll give it a shot. Though fair warning, I’m really not good with this stuff because I preferred all the women & men with detailed policy proposals, and I was upset when both Sanders & Biden, & then Bloomberg, decided to run because I think it really blocked the younger candidates, especially Harris, Booker, & Castro, from ever getting a toehold in the early states.
h/t @alexandraerin just had a long thread that was pointing out that Warren’s now clearly bridging a gap between Sanders & Biden. While pointing out things are also shifting rapidly right now, Bernie has issues, Biden also has issues, & there’s a lot that could happen between now & July.
That thread really made me think. We know Warren has internal polling where the campaign mentioned she was a lot of voters’ second choice. But that also could mean that at this point a lot of her voters that would still vote for her after yesterday, half would pick Bernie & half would pick Biden now. I’m also sure she cares a lot about party unity & keeping Biden & Sanders voters inside the tent, & keeping candidates like Bloomberg out.
So if I’m Warren & I could get Bloomberg out first & prevent those two from injuring the party & each other for months by stepping between them, that’d be enough. Because otherwise it may be a nasty two way race between two male candidates who are 77 & 78 right now. Staying in also gives the electorate more time to focus on my anti-corruption ideas & so maybe some of that work gets adopted by them & thus whoever is the nominee. And lastly, I know that one thing we’ve learned from this election it is a fluid situation & things keep changing. So, the future isn’t fixed, anything can happen, so I’m simultaneously staying in there because I want to be President, and I’m staying in as the just-in-case backup.
And by now someone may have already said some of this, and I could be spinning my theories while Warren right now is endorsing someone as I’m writing these suppositions.
Well then, I sure as hell didn’t expect Liz to finish behind Bloomberg in California, but there she is. This has me muttering today, no doubt about it.
For you checking your Vegas bets, Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente III is sandwiched be between Marianne Williamson (possibly an actual witch) and Cory Booker. You’re welcome.
@Jeffro: Insert that “100” emoji as my reply.
I’ve been telling all the people who keep telling me Trump’s going to win reelection easily because the economy’s not in freefall and his approval ratings have been ticking up and impeachment didn’t kill him to get back to me in August. The entire Dem infrastructure, and Bloomberg’s vast resources, will be dedicated to taking him down, AND he now has a record as BLOTUS to run against. The mushy low-info middle has a vague sense already that he’s a shit human being, and that will be amplified daily for 6 months, combined with a readout of all the ways his administration is garbage and hates them.
I do still worry about the press and its inability to stop normalizing him, both sides everything and invest fully in horserace coverage begging for a close race. And I worry about the foreign interference, though to a lesser extent, as I feel like most of the electorate outside of Trumplandia has started getting wise to the disinformation and bots. But those are both outweighed by the value of a (mostly) unified party focusing solely on demolishing Trump.
Late to the party but Bloomberg falling below 15% in California and Texas is great news for Sanders as it means about 100 fewer delegates Bloomberg can give to Biden. It turned a California loss (Biden+Bloomberg delegates) into a big win.
The race is still anyone’s game because of Bloomberg falling just short.
To pardon yourself you have to identify the crimes that you are being pardoned for. Trump has done nothing but commit crimes since about 1980. Is he really going to confess to all 1,795 crimes he has committed and pardon himself of every one? I expect he as long ago lost track of how much crime he has done. It’s just habitual.
So even if he issues pardons for himself and his family there is probably still going to be a shitload of other stuff to get him and his spawn for.
@lamh36: You ask a good question. My main thought is that Bernie isn’t a Democrat, and his followers aren’t Democrats of long standing, so, while a brokered convention between say, a Biden and Warren wouldn’t be all smooth sailing, as both of them are good Democrats, the loser would get enough concessions from the winner so that they would instruct their delegates to switch votes and enthusiastically support the nominee. Warren congratulated Biden on his SC win; Biden touted Buttigieg and Klobuchar as the future of the Democratic Party. Democrats look out for each other. Sanders, not being a Democrat, has no such loyalty, and his support are reliable Democratic party voters, so they don’t have any interest in what’s best for the party itself. The raison d’être is sowing chaos, not giving the party the best chance to win the largest number of seats in an election.
If Sanders had joined the Democratic party after 2016 I wouldn’t be so infuriated with him as I am now, but I swear, this take advantage of the Democratic infrastructure every 4 years comes across like some guy who lets himself into your kitchen, cooks a meal for himself with all of your food, and then leaves and complains to everyone he sees that you didn’t have the particular brands he prefers.
In 2016 a day after the election Clinton had a substantial lead over Wilmer and the mail-in count split roughly 50/50 between them, so Sanders’ percentage steadily rose but the numerical gap remained constant.
The difference this year is there were SO MANY viable candidates even a week ago the mailed ballots could easily skew in unexpected ways. In ’16 there were just the two left by June.
There is Bloomberg L.P.
did ford’s pardon of nixon identify all the crimes he committed?
Watch that CA Bloomberg % because it could rise and fall +/- 1 percent as mail-ins are counted over the coming month. If it sneaks north of 15% then he’s got delegates to deal. (IIUC)
@guachi: But Bloomberg is currently over 15% in Texas?
And California is only 75% in.
@Eolirin: You’re right, and there is ZERO reason to think the media learned any lessons from 2016. The only reason the NYT didn’t try to make a scandal of Hunter Biden’s Ukraine work is because the whistleblower made it clear they’d missed the real story, which was Trump’s attempted extortion.
One possible bright side is the media doesn’t seem to hate Biden as much as it hated Clinton, and the public hasn’t been primed to hate Biden for 30 years like they were Clinton. Also, everyone outside his base knows Trump is a liar. So we got that going for us.
Did she? I’m seeing that she lost 52-48 or thereabouts.
This seems critical. Joe has a well of goodwill, seemingly, across at least a portion of the media landscape. We’ll see how well that holds up over the next few months.
How do the Melarkey Bus and Straight Talk Express Bus compare? McCain bar-tended, I doubt Joe does. Does Joe have a tire swing?
@chopper: It was a “full, free, and absolute pardon” of all crimes committed by Nixon against the United States “during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.”
All of the crimes big and small in the US Code.
And Biden is a dude.
@Baud: So I’ve heard!
Of course, no one ever tried to test that pardon. Probably still a long shot though.
It’ll matter. Old white guys hated Clinton. They’ll relate more to Biden, and may not like to see him attacked as much.
OK, I looked it up and you are correct: “Ford issued the former president a “full, free and absolute” pardon for any crimes he committed while in office. ”
That still doesn’t prevent a future DOJ from INVESTIGATING every detail of every Trump crime and prosecuting everyone else. And also calling Trump to testify about every crime since he would no longer have the shield of the 5th Amendment.
Despite pardons, I gotta think a highly motivated Dem administration and Congress could get to the bottom of every aspect of Trump lawlessness if they wanted to. Might not lead to jail time for Trump, but could for many others.
@Nicole: I wish we had ratings buttons so I could uprate your comment. The problem as I see it is that Sanders’ most loyal followers and advisers (like Michael Moore) are just like him and they honestly don’t see their grievance based politics as a form of privileged entitlement, which I definitely do.
@Baud: If they wanted the youth vote, maybe they should have, y’know, tried to recruit young voters. Guess they just felt that the Magic of the Bern would let them keep threatening people on Twitter and at rallies, instead of doing something productive.
@patrick II: I’m guessing Obama’s role in a Biden Administration will be trusted confidant/elder statesman/rockin’ Nobel Peace Prize winning badass who delivered healthcare for millions of Americans/Michelle Obama’s darling husband. That ought to. E enough.
@Baud: The attack point is a good one. It is easy to let attacks happen to one you dislike and hard to take them even if you don’t really like someone but identify.
@Baud: There is a lot of disagreement about whether one can pardon themselves. And the Congress could always impeach those pardoned — yes, even Jared and Ivanka.
Can I just say how much I’d relish Biden introducing him thus: “Ladies and gentlemen, give it up for my good friend, Michelle’s husband!!!“
With the current SCOTUS configuration, alles ist möglich.
@Immanentize: More like you’re disinclined to believe negative stories about someone you don’t hate, i.e., motivated reasoning. I haven’t heard anyone accuse Joe of leading a pedo ring out of a pizza place. I doubt that Burisma will be anywhere equivalent to the stuff put out about HRC. For one thing, a lot of people in the target audience (swing voters) might think (1) there’s nothing particularly wrong about getting a cushy corporate board position based on who you are and/or (2) “shit, I’m not responsible for every stupid thing my fucked up grown kid does.” The reason the Republicans went after the Ukraine thing as early as they did because they thought it might torpedo Biden in the Dem primary, not the general. They really do not want him to be the nominee because they feel he’s a matchup nightmare for Trump.
@Immanentize: Last night, Susan Del Persio on msnbc, reminded everyone on the panel that Bernie was the only candidate who got to shape the rules going forward, Warren, Biden, etc. just had to live with them. She said it would be astonishing if he argues something different now.
Another panelist, noting Bernie’s statements (that the winner of a plurality of votes should win) said he may be sorry he went there.
@Barbara: Thanks, and I agree with your comment about Moore, et al. Liberal rich white folk aren’t affected by GOP policies, so they can afford to look for entertainment value as their political endgame. I see you there, Susan Sarandon!
Also, I’m annoyed at a typo in my own comment- I meant to say Bernie’s voters are NOT longstanding Democratic voters.
People don’t seem to remember that there was a lot of ex-Mayor Mike curiosity (even here at B-J) until she roasted him at the debate. If nobody had really taken him on there, there’s no telling how long he might have been viewed as Uncle Joe’s alternative.
@L85NJGT: Let me guess. Karl has the true Bernie math.
This is the primary. How will she do in the general election? If she loses because she got too far out over her skis, this accomplishes nothing.
@Another Scott: I think this is partially true. We knew Mike was pretty bad but not HOW BAD until Warren made it crystal clear.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Annie: Information is wrong. Cisneros did not prevail, though she came close. I wish someone would go back and delete the original post or update it because it has caused a lot of confusion.
@Hoodie: Also, most people get their jobs via who they know. I don’t remember the source, but I’ve heard that a majority of people get jobs through friends/relatives/word of mouth. Most are at least nominally qualified, but who hasn’t known about the “son-or-daughter of…” who is nonetheless in a job? Be it janitor or CEO, it happens all the time, I don’t think anyone can be particularly demonized for it (loOk at the Trump spawn).
Also, I seem to remember that Hunter Biden had been on the board of some other organization, so he had arguable credibility in the job.
I also seem to recall that a relation/friend/whatever of Betsy DeVoss/ Erik Prince was on Burisma’s board at the same time. How about Aa subpoena for that person too? If there was something fishy going on, surely they would know!
@Barbara: Yeah, I thought I heard she lost. Another goose egg for the Justice Dems, so far, I think they are zero for infinity.
@zhena gogolia: I said that, or meant to. It think it appears unfair which is not the same thing.
@trollhattan: Rocky runs for everything. He got 14,500 votes in the Republican primary,too. I think he was running in a House district as well. In 2018, he ran for Senate in eight states.
Just One More Canuck
Trump can only be pardoned for federal crimes and I’m pretty sure NYS has some stuff they could get him on. But let’s be realistic here too, I can’t imagine prosecuting a former president would be anything other than a nightmare. Just how you deal with assembling the jury pool sounds absurdly difficult to me.
Orange Is The New White
@glory b: People astonish me. Does anyone think that Sanders would do anything else but exactly that?
@Mary G: He continues to not understand that it isn’t about finding that One Great Man To Run Everything. He’s acting like, if it can’t be him, he will throw the primary to Biden and that resolves that.
I believe him… in that he will support Biden.
I’m worried that he will hold the party hostage and make them govern AS IF he had won, because that’s what billionaires do.
And I want Warren to stay in and continue getting delegates that are not Bernie’s, because what she understands and he doesn’t is that she is a public servant representing citizens. And delegates are a kind of power bloc, but SHE is able to function within a Biden administration and Bernie is not… Bernie’s Russian friends are doing more damage to the Dems than he’s doing good by revealing the progressive faction. Warren delegates are people with reasonable expectations (often, a better take on things than you get in the Biden camp) who have, and understand, plans.
Bloomberg is making deals for who is going to be the One Great Man. Fuck him to the Nth degree of fuckedness. He is trying to run things from defeat.
Imagine how it would be if Warren dropped and insisted her people and delegates support Bernie. Now watch her not actually doing that (cross fingers…) as she is not that kind of destructive…
Same as it ever was – now seeing it bubble up in comments here; Bernie really won because of some garbled agitprop I saw on reddit.
No, he got shellacked. Joe Biden has a clear path to winning the delegate count outright now.
Hectoring EW and her supporters isn’t going to change the probability of that outcome. Bernie’s gang fucked this up all on their own.
@glory b: Even though she lost, Cisneros must have run a strong race to come within 4% of Cisneros, who was very entrenched. I’m guessing she must have turned out a lot of young Hispanics, which could bode well for the general election. I doubt if Texas will go to the Democrats in the presidential race, but MJ Hegar has a real shot to unseat John Cornyn in the Senate race. She has a compelling biography, and projects a cheerful toughness that may resonate with Texans, especially women.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Orange Is The New White:
Exactly. Apparently he just unloaded another dump of “Corportists!” on Biden supporters. He can’t not be divisive. He’s toxic.
I agree with this LGM post:
@Baud: I do too. Sadly, Lemieux over there is telling Warren she must get out now and throw everything behind Bernieeeee! LGM is odd sometimes.
@Baud: It’s kind of like the Occupy Wall Street of political movements. I understand the energy and purpose that accompanies a philosophy of “sticking it to the man,” but if your goal is actually to get elected you have to realize that even a compelling message needs to muster majority support to be enacted. It’s especially baffling because Biden’s base of support among African Americans cannot possibly be characterized as “corporatist.” Never mind whether he deserves it or not, from your own point of view. If keeping your 25% block energized and engaged requires trashing the remaining 75%, you are almost guaranteed to have a problem.
@Baud: It’ll be interesting to see how this gets handled. My understanding from the people he’s hired is that their contract goes through November. So, can they continue to work on GOTV/organizing infrastructure on behalf of Joe and other democrats but without coordination with Joe? Basically an operation that looks more like the DNCs?
@Immanentize: I am guessing that Biden has emissaries discussing Warren’s future with Warren, rather than acolytes trying to order her around. Maybe Sanders has also reached out to her, but the drumbeat of those telling her what to do for Bernie’s own good is a testament to their rank incompetence at coalition building. They should be trying to persuade her, not order her around.
That is all, thank you.
@Barbara: I agree. Biden knows how this works. And more than emmisaries, I bet he put in his own call to her.
Meanwhile, Dr. Jill Biden is going to be one of Joe’s strongest progressive surrogates. Did you see she jumped off the stage to block a rushing protester yesterday? She is too cool. Philly girl. Like Nancy.
@Immanentize: Nancy is from Baltimore! The mayor’s daughter.
@Yutsano: To be scrupulously fair, Wilmer the Great White Wail did better than 30% in Colorado, Maine, Utah and Vermont.
@Immanentize: LGM mean well, but they couldn’t buy a clue about practical politics if they signed up as influencers with the Bloomberg Rehabilitation Tour tomorrow.
@Barbara: oopsie. Sorry. Never the Twain meet, I know!
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: His staff is hired through November. They’re paid well and have health benefits.
Trump is also criticizing Warren today for hurting Bernie’s chances. Well played, LGM.
@MCA1: The Virginia turnout levels alone are off the charts!
People are sick of the incompetence, the me-me-me, the multiple-times-daily news alerts and tweets.
He pumps up his base and REALLY pumps up ours. I’ll take it!
I was glad to see so many young people voting. I was getting tired of hearing “You can’t rely on the youth vote, young people never vote!”
Ahh… capitalism! What can’t it do?
Consider this duly appropriated.
@Cacti: She doesn’t have that many delegates. They want her to drop out and endorse Sanders to interrupt the narrative of Biden’s momentum for the upcoming primaries. They can do the math: Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobuchar + Biden is way more than Sanders can muster on his own. His whole strategy depended on at least three other candidates staying in. Now that we are down to two others, that’s not enough, especially if Warren takes votes from Sanders (which I don’t really know if she does or not, but they evidently think so).
@Barbara: Yep – I got so excited as I donated to her.
@A Ghost To Most: I second that emotion.
I’m having a weird time on Facebook. The lefty who’s been pretty tolerant of Warren (warren not being Sanders, not bending the knee) is struggling with what’s happened and is seeing a lot of people screaming WARREN DROP OUT! and seeing Warren as dividing the progressive vote, which she is, for good reason.
I’m bringing to his attention that Bloomberg is endorsing Biden and promising to turn over his organization (which he retains control of? and is paying for?). I’m telling my lefty friend that Warren having delegates is power the Left can use as bargaining chips, it’s transactional.
He wants Warren to endorse Sanders. But to do that and lose means Warren is lumped in with Sanders, dead to the Democratic Party. That is too high a price to pay in a world where Bloomberg can start out trying to take the nomination FROM Biden, then gets whacked, then turns around and tries to buy the Democratic party outright in a different novel way.
Can’t fault his tactics, but these are not circumstances where I want Warren to endorse Sanders and then have Sanders lose, which at this stage looks inevitable.
But I’m not sure she can just endorse Biden without blowing progressive cred: and I don’t want her to drop out of the debates. I’m gonna have to trust her.
I would not be surprised if Pelosi has been sanguine because she knows stuff like this was ready to drop. She is way better at politics than anyone on the Left, but what she DOES with said politics matters. Doesn’t she have a pandemic bill ready? Except it’s market-ized to some extent, it all depends on what she counts as ‘reasonable profit’ for the drug companies. I think things are getting past that point.
Trump left unmentioned that Bloomberg, unlike Trump, can actually waste a billion dollars and still have billions leftover.
@L85NJGT: What I think the results have revealed is that while Sanders is the youth candidate, he’s actually not driving youth turnout numbers up. He’s merely the preferred candidate of already-engaged young voters. But he’s not like Obama or say JFK in terms of actually increasing youth turnout. If he had been, there should have been a surge of younger turnout on Super Tuesday. It was young voters’ best chance to get a very progressive nominee. It’s not looking like that’s the case.
And yeah, since that was his core pitch for the general election, it’s not looking compelling.
I don’t buy the argument about Warren you’re making however. Again, I’m a fan of hers. But there’s no evidence she was the “best possibility” of anything. She’s won over very very few voters among an electorate where she ought to do better. It’s looking, to me, like she would have done the worst in the general election among the three remaining candidates.
Not really. Bloomberg spent about a buck fitty ($1.50), maybe two, for every person in the country (330M x 1.5 = 495M)
However, it is true that Bloomberg could give every single person in the country $100 and still have about $30 billion leftover. Even Bloomie’s not rich enough to give every person in the country $1000 dollars though, much less a million. Not even Bezos is that rich … yet.
@Chris Johnson: I think Warren has a very hard decision to make. I would not want to be in her shoes. Factors she needs to consider are — will she run again? (unlikely); does she want influence in a Democratic administration come 1/21? (definitely); will that influence be as a Senator or something else? (who knows). I guess if it were me at this point, the only remaining candidate after the front runners, I would stay in until the money truly runs out, which will hopefully be for one more primary round. It doesn’t really matter at this point when she drops out UNLESS she really thinks doing it earlier nets her something she really cares about. The Sanders supporters who see this only in terms of whether it helps or hurts Sanders don’t seem to understand the nature of politics. Warren doesn’t owe Sanders anything.
@bluehill: That is BS.
A REAL ID is not required to vote in any state.
However, in some states voters who want to renew or obtain a state photo ID or driver’s license (for voting or another purpose) have no choice but to go through the REAL ID process.
I just got my real id. Piece of cake with passport and utility bills, old license. Otherwise need combo of birth cert., SS card, and bunch of docs. A PITA but doable.
@Barbara: The next debate is March 15 in Phoenix. That’s quite a ways off – if she was thinking of trying again to make an impact at a debate.
There’s nothing in the Medium piece that indicates what is happening, yet.
I assume we’ll know something in the next day or few.
@Another Scott: Assuming this passes both House and Senate, I wonder how long it will take Trump to seize the funds for his wall.
One thing that strikes me is, if Bloomberg by ‘conceding’ and then offering to replace pretty much the Dem organization with HIS PEOPLE, which he will pay for, is its own kind of takeover bid… then Warren cannot endorse Biden.
To do so would be twisting in the wind, unable to accomplish anything, with Bloomberg laughing at her (and us).
If Bloomberg is able to persuade the Dems that he should replace their system with his own loyalists, Warren is stuck having to endorse Bernie, or beat him (which seems like a big ask). I could see her insisting on a Veep slot and having actual power in exchange for this: it would stop Sanders from naming Tulsi Gabbard or some other Russian stooge, and would put her very close to the Presidency, as Sanders is far from well.
That’d be a heavy lift for the Sanders people, who have been propagandized this whole time that Liz is a snake, and who have been prepped to accept the likes of Gabbard on the grounds of ‘anti-establishment’. And we’ve just given them a big demonstration of Establishment in the Dem coming-together. And if it ended up being Dems coming together under the control of Bloomberg… that’s a big problem. One thing about that guy, he’s quick. Fail to become King in one way, he’s instantly in there with already-laid plans for controlling everything in another way just because he’s stolen billions and wants more, in whatever declining years he’s even got left.
I hate waaaaay too many of these people. Well, okay, mostly Bloomberg and Trump and their ilk.
Note: not in respite thread! yay! Even though I can’t switch this off right now, I’m not going to make a mess in a respite thread :)
@Amir Khalid: As much as she is loved, the answer to your question is now and forever shall be: No way, no how, not on God’s earth, and not on your Nelly. Also, too, NEVAH!
@Amir Khalid: @TomatoQueen:
Did they sell the house they bought in DC? They were living at least part-time in DC, but they seem to get around a lot, so might not spend that much time there.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jim, Foolish Literalist
yet another phrase that needs to be used more
TS (the original)
I can’t believe that Obama wants any type of a formal role. He is, no doubt enjoying his post presidential life. He will simply be the younger “older statesman”
@TS (the original): seriously, people need to just let Obama do his thing. He’ll be there for the general election campaign, but let the man do his non-profit work, essentially the Jimmy Carter thing.
Being president was super hard work, when you took it seriously, at least.