So now that Warren is out, I really do not envy those of you who have to make a choice in the next couple of weeks. Like, I really don’t. Now that Warren is out of the race and I really don’t have anyone I am willing to crawl over broken glass, I guess I am just going to sit back and do no damage to either candidate, since the whole thing will most likely be decided before I vote on 12 May. By then all the big states will have voted, and the nominee will be settled but for the Bernie folks screaming about super delegates if he is not winning.
Personally, for me, it’s a super tough choice between the two. First off, before I go into this, I am not going to put up with a bunch of shit about where I am on this. I’ll listen to persuasive arguments, but I am not going to put up with the kind of abusive crap that fans of a certain candidate like to dish out. Again, this is just my opinion.
1.) I think one of the things that every Presidential candidate should have is a reason for running. An aspirational message, a plan to change things for the better, etc. I think Bernie has that in spades. Our society is deeply broken and skewed way far to the right, with wealth and income inequality at all time highs and getting worse, housing is unaffordable, we’re in the midst of a climate crisis, and we have not even gone into healthcare. And on and on. There is no doubt in my mind that Bernie’s ideas, if implemented, on many of these issues would advance the ball on all of these issues in the correct direction and outright fix some of them.
2.) Authenticity and Consistency. He’s been saying the same fucking thing for the last 40 years. What more can I say.
3.) Inspires great loyalty among followers.
1.) Age and temperament: He’s old as dirt, just had a heart attack, refuses to be upfront about his health, and he ain’t getting any younger and being President is a young person’s job.
2.) The flip side of his authenticity and consistency is an ideological rigidity that is loathe to compromise. None of his plans are going to get through by force of sheer will. He will need to work well with others, and I have seen little to no evidence that he can or even wants to (and this is certainly the case with many of his most extreme followers). He also, like Trump, in some regards, seems to just swallow up every conspiracy thrown out there. Sometimes people just disagree with you, Bernie.
3.) Electability: I keep seeing people point to polling showing him beating Trump, and yes, I know I am just going from the gut here, but I simply do not buy it. I live in WV, and I watched Bernie ride a wave of Hillary hatred driven by four decades of Republican villification to win the primary there. This led to people claiming he would win in the general. This is nonsense. I fear the same all over every part of the country that is purple. I just do not see the evidence that he will win. I see the polling, but I do not believe it. I also fear what impact he will have on down ballot races. He’s always AWOL for people like Cisneros, who just lost a race to Cuellar. Add to that he has never really been tested on the national stage. The Republicans are going to throw everything at him and it is going to be ugly.
4.) Judgment: This is something he shares with Clinton- Sanders consistently surrounds himself with absolute garbage human beings. His campaign hires speak for themselves- you can go to twitter and experience them lying, distorting, and shitposting for yourselves.
1.) Known quantity: Safe. Will not rock the boat. Will bring a calming presence to the office and will oversee what I think is the #1 priority for any incoming Democrat: denazification of the entire federal government starting with Justice, State, the military, Homeland Security, down to even the fucking EPA and the CDC. Will be able to staff quickly with competent, established people.
2.) Coalition Builder: It’s foolish to assume the Republicans will work with anyone given the past 20 years of behavior, but if the Senate does flip, Biden will be far more likely to work with even moderates within the party than would Bernie.
3.) Popular with the base of the party. Will have Barack Obama on the trail with him.
4.) Doesn’t think incrementalism is a dirty word. I know it’s currently popular to think we can wave a wand and get shit done, but that is not how the country works. Currently everyone wants medicare for all. Why? Because the medicare that we started out with was not what we have now- it took six decades of adding to it and fighting for it to get it where it is now. That’s incrementalism and it fucking works.
1.) Age: Also old as dirt and showing his age. Currently being smeared as losing it because of his stutter, but is in reality showing his age more than he was in 2008 and 2012, which makes sense because he is twelve years older now.
2.) Long track record: And on a shit ton of it, it is bad. From the bankruptcy bill to subservience to credit card companies and finance to the Iraq War to always being willing to be the “serious guy” on the deficit and go after entitlements, there is a helluva lot of ugly in there.
3.) Reason for running: Where as Warren and Bernie and others had pages after pages of policy proposals, Joe Biden’s entire case for President is basically standing on the stage next to Trump, pointing at him, and saying “Really? You gonna choose this motherfucker again or Uncle Joe?”
This is a work in progress, but where I am now. I will edit and add to it over the next days and weeks.
My choice is Joe Biden. You can see his policy page here.
ETA: I went from Harris to Warren (voted for her) and have no problem with Biden over the other guy.
I’m looking at your pros and cons for each, and having a hard time believing that on balance this is even close. Primarily due to the Sanders ‘cons’ list.
Very fair assessment, maybe fairer than they both deserve. But it’s a moot point. Gonna be over by St. Patrick’s Day. For better or worse, hopefully better, Biden is the nominee.
I think a large portion of the Dem voters are in the same boat, one or more stages of grief over their candidate dropping out. Some of us have had multiple episodes this cycle.
We are where we are, and that’s OK as long as we come together in November.
The sweet spot for experience and age is probably late 40s through mid 50s. That is “young” only relative to the current candidates.
Whoever wins really needs to pick a VP in this age range.
Quaker in a Basement
Biden’s lack of a compelling reason for running might fairly be listed as a “con,” but it’s good enough for me.
Yeah, it’s really tough. A guy whose penchant for empty Bolshevik talking points will take down the House majority and ensure the Senate remains in the clutches of McConnell, while making McGovern/Dukakis look like an overachiever. Or a guy who is trusted for good reason, totally transparent financially and completely experienced.
I think Joe will try hard to enable and empower the next generation of Democrats, like Stacy Abrams and Beto O’Rourke, and Bernie won’t. To me, that is practically a sufficient reason unto itself to vote for Biden.
Now past our primary where I voted for Warren with great enthusiasm I don’t need to choose between the remaining two old dudes. The nominee has my vote.
Biden wins, Sanders likely loses.
A well thought out, well balanced set of arguments, both pro and con, on both sides. Now that Warren is out, I’m drifting towards Biden, but am in now way completely settled.
at least I got to cast a balky for Warren on Tuesday. I’m proud of that vote.
IMHO, if you honestly don’t believe Bernie is not going to win, then you’ve made your choice. That’s the price of admission in an election.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
not so sure that’s a con
also: Coattails. Anybody think there’d even be rumors about Steve Bullock running if SC and ST hadn’t gone the way they did? Mark Kelly endorsed Biden, Jaime Harrison* is hugely relieved, those polls where three other Dems saw leads that came out today, coincidence? I doubt it.
He’s far from a sure thing, I’m an atheist thinking of taking up prayer, but this is not be a tough choice for me.
*I’m not betting on Harrison winning, this time, but I think he may do in SC what O’Rourke did in TX in terms of party building. And if Cole can talk about his gut, I’ll talk about mine: I think he has a bigger future than O’Rourke
@Baud: Yeah, this too.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Neither one will put babies in cages, in either case, it’s a win.
I’m voting for Biden, but VP choices would be helpful and potentially enlightening.
(I’m going to just keep plowing through non-respite threads. My white-maleness supercedes your silly rules)
Seattle is buying vacant properties like warehouses and motels to serve as quarantine locations. Smart.
Hospitals in CA are setting up their surge tents for intake. Also smart. These are pretty large tents – a few hundred square feet each. California has 21 million N95 masks in storage for emergencies and is releasing them to front-line workers.
Local officials are going to save our asses. President is important, but so is your county commissioner.
Live interview with Elizabeth Warren on Rachel Maddow now. Warren upbeat and still inspirational. Talking about how all the (mostly young) people who worked on her campaign have learned valuable skills that they will carry into the future.
Starting to think Biden’s “I’ll work across the aisle” shtick could be effective: NOT at working across the aisle to get anything done (the GOP is fucking crazy), but as a lever against his administration getting blamed like a more liberal one would.
Look, we have the media we have, and they suck. But if he does his bipartisan dance, and they see that, and the GOP goes further right, well, maybe he’ll be more their huckleberry and can just go his own way to work on important stuff. And if a few Romney-style GOPers join him, so much the better.
Trying to find the positive here, with Warren out.
KS in MA
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Biden/Warren would be a winner in my book
Jim, Foolish Literalist
The Beast is having a town hall on Fox, apparently:
Frankly, if any “rational” person needs more than that, then I question his/her rationality. It’s not unlike listening to that moronic (allegedly) Dem voter in 2016, who said “Tell me why I should vote for Hillary, but without using the words ‘Donald Trump’ or ‘Supreme Court.’ ” That’s just a bullshit excuse to give themselves cover for voting for Trump, and they’re afraid someone would call them out on it if they were being honest about wanting to vote for the most brilliantest, athletickest, richest, geniusest person EVAH. Fuckem.
Mrs. SFAW was chatting with her baby sister last night. Although we have a pretty good idea that baby sis and her husband are Trumpistas, we are not sure, because we never asked — mainly because we don’t want our suppositions confirmed (which might mean we disown them or whatever). So Mrs. S asked baby sister whether she would vote for Shitgibbon, and baby sister’s response was “it depends on who the opponent is.” When asked about that, she said something like “well Joe Biden referred to his wife as ‘my sister,’ can you believe it? How could I vote for someone as addled as that?” [Is a facepalm appropriate at this point?] My wife did not ask about Vermont Jesus.
My dear mother-in-law, now six years gone, would have smacked baby sister upside the head for spouting such double-standard bullshit. I’m not sure what I’m going to do. I guess if Shitgibbon loses in November, then I’ll just forget about it.
When I read Jeffro’s discussions re: his Trumpista family members, I am usually grateful that all of my extended blood relatives are raging liberals. [NB: Not ignoring other Juicers in similar situations, it’s just that Jeffro’s sticks out most in my mind.] I hope I can make it to 1/20/21 without telling any in-law-type relatives to FOAD.
There are a lot of votes by Biden that are now viewed as bad. My guess is that all of them were
made before 2006. Which some might see as along time ago. Anybody have a more accurate reading
(such as really no bad votes after 2004)
For me, it’s about HOW Biden made this work, which also happens to be how I knew this race was his to lose (fucking fuck) from the get go. He knows everyone. He is immensely capable at supporting downticket candidates at all levels and, being a mushy moderate, has some real flexibility in being able to throw weight behind Dougs Jones and Saras Gideon alike.
That, to me, is basically the whole enchilada. Biden and 50+ dem senators is >>>>>>>> Warren and 49- Dem senators and I LOVE Warren.
Pretty much where I’m at too, Cole. I did have a chance to vote for Warren on Tuesday (waves towards the west from the VA tidewater) so there’s that. I’m more comfortable with Uncle Joe than with Bernie, though. I’m getting up there, too, and a cardiac condition at that age combined with refusal to be full and open about current health conditions is a deal breaker.
Now if Biden were to tap Stacey Abrams as Veep… That would be fun. ?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SFAW: I suspect my 2016 never-trump right-wing relations have been brought around by Kavanaugh (fundie Catholics), but some of them might could be pried loose by Biden based on the Irish thing alone. Of course, they’re all in IL or CA, so…
https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/868071607801139200?s=21I am forever like this little girl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You know, we’re looking at a ~12% fatality rate for folks on Medicare. A 12% cut to Medicare is nothing to sneeze at if we can just resist wasting taxpayer money on containing this.
This was kind of true for Obama, …. except Obama was still blamed for gridlock and partisanship, and not reaching further across the aisle to compromise with the nutjob GOP.
So, dinna hold your breath.
One more Bernie con. I probably shouldn’t vote on resentment or pre-resentment at what I think will happen if Bernie finds himself behind. But in 2016 his accusations of the DNC unfairly helping Clinton, even though much of the “information” concerning that came from his imagination or emails stolen byj Russians, (he actually lost the primaries by about 4 million votes) has made me pretty much anti-Bernie. He harmed Hillary’s chances last time, and I am afraid he may do a similar thing this time. “The establishment is against me”, as if all of those people voting for other candidates have no agency.
I liked him when he first campaigned in 2016; his positions certainly moved the party to be more progressive. But he did much harm after that.
Gin & Tonic
I think a lot of people just want to wake up every day without that nagging dread of “oh no, what did that motherfucker do now?” Biden provides that.
Haha. That’s perfect.
Mike in NC
Front page article in “USA Today” discusses why the BernieBros were often no-shows on Tuesday. His base is shrinking by the day.
@Steeplejack: Now they’re talking about Bailey stealing that burrito. LOL.
LOL. Re the burrito incident: Warren said that Bailey said the pressure of running for First Dog had gotten to him. She said she thought he was stress eating.
Al Franken – Um, let’s win (October 16, 2019):
Bernie seems to think that any tactic – saying opponents are lying about a conversation, saying that opponents are sell-outs if they don’t support his M4A (when he himself did so) – is Ok if it serves his ends.
Biden isn’t like that.
We’re not electing a god-emperor, we’re electing someone to lead the executive branch. That person has to be able to work well with others.
FWIW. Good luck with your choice.
Good for you, John Cole! BrokenGlass2020!
Who would you rather have a beer with?
I’ve written this before but since it is apropos I’ll write it again.
The job of the next president is going to be about 98% executive and about 2% legislative, even if the Dems win back the Senate. You can basically tear up everything in Bernie and Biden’s platforms that requires legislation (most of it) and figure that if they win the Senate they will get one, maybe two big piece of legislation through before reaching gridlock again. So maybe a public option and something to do with voting rights. Maybe some fixit immigration stuff. Maybe some ineffectual climate stuff and some higher education policy that is just chipping around the edges. It will depend almost entirely on Pelosi and Schumer and the relevant committee chairs. Almost not at all on the President.
In fact, the best way for Presidents to get legislation passed is to keep their fingerprints off of it. That just makes it a target. If President Bernie were to drop a big health care legislative package on Congress it would almost certainly be DOA because it would have a GIANT target on it and every GOPer in the country would be gunning to take a scalp and defeat Bernie’s big idea. It would instantly be toxic. Obama understood this which is why the Obama White House kept their distance from the ACA the entire time it was in Congress and basically let the House and Senate take the lead on all aspects of policy. They got what they could get after Lieberman did his thing and Kennedy died. And then signed it and called it the best they could do. The whole thing would have been DOA if it was Obama’s signature proposal developed by the White House policy shop as some kind of take-it-or-leave-it no compromise policy proposal of the sort that Bernie likes to make.
What we need is a president who can go around the world restoring our international relationships on climate, trade, arms control, immigration, etc. etc. And a president who can appoint the right people to rebuild the hollowed out Federal government and rip out all the Trump era horrors in terms of regulations and policies.
That would, of course, have been Warren on both counts. Easily. But between Biden and Sanders, I’d much rather have Biden out trying to rebuild trust in America. And I trust him to appoint experienced competent people to take on the unglamorous task of rebuilding our government after 4 years of Trump. Every agency from the DOJ to State to EPA to Education is going to have to be rebuilt almost from the ground up. That is not a job for the Nina Turners of the world. It is a job for the Elizabeth Warrens of the world.
I know. I can’t even, as the kids say.
I agree with Bernie on all the issues-related things, but I really dislike the way he’s failed to build bridges to the Democratic core, and I dislike the rigidity of a lot of his followers.
I tend to think a “return to normalcy” with Biden is an overall good thing, and is an attractive thing. While I think the rest of the world would breathe a sigh of relief whoever might defeat Trump, I think Biden would be very good at rebuilding our alliances. I also think Biden would be good at rebuilding the federal bureaucracy that’s been vandalized by Trump and his minions.
On the other hand, I think Bernie’s foreign policy instincts align more with my own — not all of Biden’s “America’s Back!” is necessarily a good thing, though I gather from the Pod Bros that Biden learned a lot of lessons in the first years of the 21st Century — and that he’s become less of a foreign adventurer.
Not to mention the Sanderistas seem to take climate change seriously.
On the other hand, that record John refers to (e.g., bankruptcy bill, flirting with Social Security and Medicare cuts, Anita Hill, handsiness….) make Biden a difficult pill to swallow.
I heard James Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden, and damn, but that was an effective speech (go give it a listen, John). I also have heard that Clyburn gave Biden a good talking to about focusing his rhetoric that has showed up in Biden’s speeches to good effect. If so, Biden should get refresher lessons from Clyburn every week.
We have a reasonably intelligent governor, so that gives me some hope.
I hope Biden’s advisors are reminding him, “You think THIS kind of support and turnout was amazing, wait until you put Harris or Abrams on the ticket!”
White-hot fury at trumpov + genial party unifier as our nominal head + progressive, no-nonsense, female VP of color + Obama out there campaigning + trumpov continuing to remind the country of his incompetence multiple times daily + maybe even impeachment acquittal fury hanging out there = BIG blue wave coming.
Also, we owe them for Kavanaugh + a couple hundred other TCNJ judges.
You said what I’ve been thinking, JC. I’ll be perfectly happy voting for either of them in the general, but I think we missed a big opportunity with Warren and there were about 6 other candidates I preferred to these two.
But this is what we’ve got. Those of you who still have the opportunity to vote, have at it. Bernie and Biden have about the same mixed appeal to me. Bernie has a reason for running. Biden doesn’t. Biden knows where the levers of power are, Bernie will try to invent them from whole cloth. Either will run into severe obstruction from the Republicans and either will probably end up in the same place after all is said and done.
Kudos to Biden for rallying black voters and centrists to his cause, but I hope he figures out how to inspire younger voters. And whatever you think about Bernie, he’s made a connection with Latinos that Biden hasn’t cracked yet. It’s worth figuring that out, because we’ll need everyone in November.
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
I voted for Warren on Tuesday in Virginia. But I’ll be happy enough with Biden.
I said to my wife yesterday, I can already see what a Biden presidency would look like. I see somebody who is likely to make mistakes in office—which is, after all, inevitable; any president is going to be human, at least for the foreseeable future—but who is a decent person, and who will carry out the duties of his office in good faith.
I know that after three years of the shit we’ve been dealing with, we all want shit to get cleaned up, toot sweet, and we want to take great, inspiring leaps into the future. Shit, I want that, too, but it doesn’t work that way. So what I want now is a decent guy who will do his best and do it in good faith. That’s a start, maybe a pretty good start.
And one other thing…
I’m a pasty white guy. And as a rule, I take my cue from Black voters. They are the base of the Democratic Party. They are the soul of the Democratic Party. Black people have taken the worst this country could dish out for about 400 years now, and they haven’t given in to despair or cynicism. They haven’t thrown up their hands and given up. They don’t sit at home and pout when their candidate doesn’t get nominated. They don’t vote for a third party candidate when their choice loses the nomination. They don’t do things out of spite.
And I trust them. When they turn out in huge numbers for Biden, that means something to me. I trust them. And I’m going with their choice here. I think we could all stand to take our moral and political cues from the African American voting bloc.
A Ghost To Most
@Jeffro: No shit, Sherlock. Get with the party. We can argue about policy after we save democracy.
@Baud: Gin and Tonic with Baud.
Also Biden will pick Kamala Harris as his running mate. I consider that a big plus
You and I are on the same page. Now if we can only survive this virus.
You mean, outside of you?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Maddow: Have you ever talked to Sen Sanders about [online bullying]
Warren: I have
Maddow: What was that conversation like?
Warren: It was short.
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.):
John, that was a reasoned listing and I appreciate the effort you went through in writing it up. As Jeffro said upthread, though, the listing really doesn’t leave any doubt about who to favor.
A couple other things. Whoever becomes President will have limited ability to drive the domestic agenda. In fact, I think Biden is most likely to let Pelosi and Schumer or whoever becomes majority leader in the Senate to do that. And I have no doubt that with Biden as the nominee the Dems will take control of the Senate. I think Bernie will try to put himself in the middle of everything and micromanage Congress which would basically result in nothing being done.
Also, Biden is much better prepared to deal with the foreign policy mess Trump will leave behind.
Finally, way back when Biden declared his candidacy, there was a lot of gnashing of teeth here specifically because of his record as a Senator. He had a mixed record, a lot of good and some bad. But as I pointed out then, unlike those who work with Trump and become turds themselves, people who worked with Obama had their better selves come to the fore. The Biden of 2016, after 5 years under Obama, was not the same Biden of 2008. Hell, he practically pushed Obama into favoring same sex marriage. He guided the ACA through its birthing and he was the one who declared it a BFD when the future and thankfully no ex-mayor of Chicago told Obama to let it go.
Just like Clinton became a better and more progressive person, so did Biden. I think he is a lot more progressive than people think, but he also knows the country will not elect someone who is so overtly far to the left.
A fair take, Cole.
My hope is that if Biden is elected (which is also my hope now) Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff et al. will keep Biden on the straight and narrow and guide him in the paths of righteousness. We need to de-Green-Lantern-ize the presidency and get back to the legislative branch doing more of the heavy lifting and not just responding to presidential initiatives.
You should add the following. A number of people have used the same word to describe Biden – decency. I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again and again: Biden has lost a step or two but he hasn’t lost his basic sense of decency. Trump has lost a step or two and he hasn’t lost his basic sense of indecency.
Quaker in a Basement
@SFAW: The answer to that one is easy: Trump said if Ivanka wasn’t his daughter, he’d be dating her. I’ll take addled over creepy any day.
@catclub: Racism, tho.
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.):
Even though people are talking about it, I think it’s still underappreciated how incredible it was for the Super Tuesday states to rally around Biden after S.C.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: sounds like he was dismissive like he always dismisses these concerns
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Martin: Not funny.
Quaker in a Basement
@Jeffro: Or Castro.
I don’t remember that working for Obama. Whoever the Democratic nominee is will be called a liberal extremist. There is no cover in moderation, it simply moves the goalposts.
@SFAW: Inside Baud, it would be too dark.
Sanders is not authentic. He’s been pro-gun and anti-immigration his whole career until they became major Youth Vote issues, when he immediately leaped on and tried to claim he was a leader. It was disgusting, and it erased my last bits of respect for him. I used to think he was at least an honest egotistical ideologue.
Biden will pick whoever Clyburn tells him to pick, and will not merely be willing to return that favor but will be happy to take that good advice. His graciousness and reports he’s willing to be corrected and to learn have improved my opinion of the man.
I am sorry. I just can’t see how this is a difficult decision. There is one Democrat standing.
I was a strong Harris, but of course look where we are today.
I voted, what 5 days ago for Warren, because of her.
I liked Harris’s steadiness and professional demeanor. I liked and also thought it was a bit much for Warren to have so much legislation concepts planned. I thought that with the destruction of the federal government, by republican bullshit and trump’s total fucking incompetence, even just as a human being a first priority would be restoring some semblance of a working government.
That leads me to where we are now. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Both are too fucking old. And as an old fart myself I hate that I have to say that but it’s true and we all know it. So that leaves personalities and record. As John stated Biden has baggage. OTOH the bad things he’s known for were all for major employers in his state of Delaware. That doesn’t mean I agree with those things, it’s just a bit understandable if still undesirable. He’s got the personality, I just don’t know his aging rate and staying power. He has said he’d only serve for 4 yrs. That means his VP is somewhat critical and because of his age better be someone with large government department operational capability. I’d suggest Kamala Harris, has the experience, is strong and personable. I think she could help him immensely.
That leaves Sanders. His faults are legend, I do not want this person or anyone he might hire for staff to work for me in DC.
I figured out my preference some time ago, Harris, Warren, Biden, Amy, Castro, Pete, Sanders. That’s my list and I’m sticking to it, or what’s left of it.
Well, damn. I was looking forward to voting for Warren in the Illinois primary (IN 10 DAYS!!). Before I make up my mind between the 2 guys who look like me (and are even older!), I’ll make sure to check the down-ballot races so I try to pick good Ds all the way (being Illinois, we occasionally get a bad D from time to time …)
@Quaker in a Basement:
“Oh, that was just fake news made up by the lamestream media!” No, they didn’t say that, but if they’re full-on Trumpistas, I would expect that type of reply.
@Jinchi: Different bar height for a white guy.
My brother is a Trump supporter. For me it always loops back to baby-snatching, kids in cages, child trafficking, and all the other abuse. Anyone that is still a Republican, or votes Republican at any level is OK with this. I cannot get around it, cannot forgive. Soon my rage will subside enough to send him a FOAD type email.
I could vote for Warren and did so in my state’s primary. So my choice is done, I don’t need to worry about it anymore. Work and contribute and vote in the general election for whoever wins, is all.
And watch to see if ‘old as dirt’ becomes a trending topic on the internet. How old is standard dirt, anyway?
One good thing is that Trump’s no spring chicken either, and his head seems to have been as old as dirt for decades. The media as prettied up his official babbling since they have decided that it would impolite to broadcast our official nominal president’s incoherence. I have to hope that they don’t do that when he campaigns. Both Sanders and Biden are fricken geniuses compared to Trump.
@Baud: “why do we have the president we have now?”
@glory b: He also seems to think all problems are economic and derive from income inequality and the 1%. Which completely ignores the role of racism. He needs to read him some Ta Nehisi Coates. It is shitty racist bosses, foremen, cops, teachers, neighbors, bank loan officers, etc. etc. And they aren’t the 1%.
They are both low quality candidates, and I blame the media and idiot voters for sticking us with them. It’s not just the Republicans with deplorables.
We are stuck with the B Boys, and for me Bernie’s Con #4 is the deciding factor for vastly preferring Biden. The president is the CEO of America, responsible for hiring thousands of people to do the work of government. Bernie sucks at this. How many people have been put on his staff unvetted and then fired a week later for social media posts available to anyone who can Google??
I’m voting for whoever gets the nomination, but I’ll sleep better if it’s Biden. Then I’ll push him to be liberal.
Contemplating voting for Wilmer is like contemplating buying a Ford Pinto.
“Well, most of the time it doesn’t go up in a spectacular ball of flame.”
Spoken (OK, written) like an Establishment Demon-rat.
Draft Oprah Already
Jim, Foolish Literalist
IIRC Nancy Pelosi also told RAHM! to step the fuck back
I have to say, a LOT of smart and convincing comments here.
Mom was like, some things I can’t explain. But she kept asking.
Warren is 70. So how young is young? Cause by that criteria, Warren is old as dirty too?
So she looks spry and all, but age-wise still old.
As for the two choices between two candidate with problematic issues that concern YOUR community, who NEVER seems to pay lip service to it until elections years… welcome to the African American experience for the past oh…150 years.
Sucks don’t it…
But out of the two, at least Biden has a better history of paying more than just lip service (I know, I know…the Crime Bill…but guess what many member of the CBC also supported it, oh and the other guy voted FOR it…) outside of a presidential primary year…
I’m a proud Democrat and there is only one other proud Democrat left.
@Jinchi: Here’s a good question, will these Latinx voters vote for Dems, or just for Bernie? I understand that they also voted for the more moderate congress men snd women from those states in 2018, but I don’t think their numbers were as big.
Bernie got 53% of their vote in Nevada, are there any more numbers available?
@White & Gold Purgatorian: Prove to me that’s not their plan.
@Ruckus: Biden or Sander’s VP pick will be the most consequential in maybe a century. Or at least since an aging and ailing FDR picked Truman during the peak of WW2. I trust Biden much more than Sanders to make the right pick.
I’ve explained to my totebagger mother that everything about the moderate-vs-progressive wing divide that the television pundits love is bullshit. There are the Sanders supporters and everyone else, and many of the ‘everyone else’ are as liberal or more than the Sanders supporters. When the other candidates dropped out, votes moved to whoever the non-Sanders leader was. Biden had the AA support, so that became him.
This is an election about defeating Trump.
Big deal. Bailey is a genius compared to Trump. Wolf Blitzer (Jeopardy! edition) is a genius compared to Trump. Hell, my (neutered) cat’s left nut is a genius compared to Trump, that moron.
@SFAW: They think windmills and cancer, toilets and ten flushes, and if you are sick – go to work is normal. I’ll vote Biden next week – dambit no Warren. Couple aged 60’s male friends with fundi wives who say they voted for Obama at least once, Trump over the scheming bitch; both go end of ‘Murica when Bernie the socialist comes up. Of course one worked for the state highway and fire department the past 40 years. Think Sanders loses EC, Biden wins. Realize small sample, but parrots Chris Mathews media “liberals”.
I like to think that Biden’s schtick about working across the aisle is just that, schtick. It’s like saying the homeliest bride is beautiful, it’s something you think you are supposed to say.
I think it will work on people like my neighbors, who identify as Republicans, will probably die identifying that way, but are appalled by Trump. They will feel respected that Biden thinks well of their party, and I am guessing they will make an exception and vote Blue for Biden. We need their votes here in Ohio, and they certainly would never vote for Bernie.
And if I am wrong, and at this late date, Biden still actually believes he can work across the aisle, well, he will won’t be able to, which makes him even with Bernie, not any worse.
As for all of Biden’s horrible votes in the past, I also think he is a politician’s politician. He knows which way the wind is blowing. You could frame that as him being fickle or him being adaptable.
Yes, he is a gaffe-machine and too often too handsy with the pretty gals, but Bernie isn’t winning any personality contests either. Again, there’s no benefit for voting for Berne on this account.
I’ve said this before, I try to imagine Bernie hobnobbing at the G-8, or speaking at a funeral, or any of those other functions where a President is supposed to personify the nation, and I cringe.
TL;dr: Biden by a nose.
@Ohio Mom: I like this take.
“I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed! But 10 to 20 million dead, tops!”
@glory b: Well, they came out for Hillary. It wasn’t latino votes that swung that election in any way.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
two interesting observations
I really don’t know where this idea that Hispanic voters are solid for Bernie comes from. After South Carolina, Morning Consult found:
I think Hispanic voters are just like most voters this round, asking who do we think can beat Trump.
@Steeplejack: See, Buck knew how to win a policy problem.
Bernie Sanders immigration and gun votes are as right wing as they come. He changed his tune in 2016 just when started running for President. Google his 2007 interview with Lou Dobbs.
A Ghost To Most
@SFAW: You laugh, but I’ve been duking it out with a bunch of BSbros at rawstory, and they’ve been saying “Are you with us, or are you for Kissinger and Reaganomics?”, So maybe my patience for BS is gone.
I stick to this like it’s my astrology chart, but I go by the Barber Character Chart of Active/Passive Positive/Negative. And to that I note:
Bernie is an Idealist Active/Negative. All the points John made about Bernie’s inability to play well with others is on full display. He wants a Socialist Utopia and will not compromise on that objective, which will run into the brick wall of a Congress that won’t be as ideological as him. Think Woodrow Wilson but crankier.
Biden is a Congenial Passive/Positive. He’s the nicer of the two, able to build the Big Tent coalition needed to overcompensate for the massive voter suppression trump and the Republicans are about to unleash. His nature bends towards teamwork and bipartisanship (which is a negative when dealing with the fantasy that he could EVER bring any Republicans to his side). But on the downside he’s unfocused, unable to stick to talking points and show an ability to make tough decisions. Past his friendly nature, Biden is just… there. He’s like drywall: he’ll help keep the building up but is flat as hell. The best possible thing about Biden depends entirely on who he brings in to his team: Getting Clyburn’s support was a real game-changer, and if reports are true Biden needs Clyburn’s help in building a campaign team that can keep him focused. Best comparison for Biden right now is that he’s the Democrats’ answer to Ronald Reagan (and in a good way for the Dems: a fatherly/grandfatherly figure whose public persona is “nice” and trustworthy).
That’s where I am at. Losing Warren as the last Active/Positive in this campaign broke me. I’m going with the Passive/Positive in Biden because he’s going to do the least amount of counter-damage to the nation while repairing the mess trump will leave behind.
FSM will smite you for that one, bucko.
@Ohio Mom: Next debate will open with the candidates leading the audience in Amazing Grace.
e julius drivingstorm
@Kent: Jim Clyburn is offering Biden advice on the vp pick. He thinks it should be a woman and also a person of color. He won’t say who. I would trust the congressman’s judgment.
@PaulWartenberg: My thinking that Harris as active/positive in the VP slot would make up for that, provided Biden listens to her, which I think he will. He benefitted from that as VP.
I can’t imagine any VP being a partner to Bernie. He just doesn’t work that way.
Make America Normal Again
That’s probably enough to win an election at this point. And it sounds kind of like a 70s cop show.
@White & Gold Purgatorian: I thought it was funny. I don’t know how people get through the day without black humor.
This is great stuff.
I already voted for California, and I figure if primary voters make a clear choice, at the end, I will respect that. If convention battles deliver a candidate, I will respect that.
But given the choice, I go with Biden every time.
I don’t like Bernie’s ideas and I am suspicious of his proposed methods.
Problem is, he shouty waves about what they do in Europe without any real idea of how those systems work or how they were developed or implemented.
Bottom line. He ain’t got no ideas.
He is also a leftist demagogue. As far as I can tell, if elected he will live in a mobile White House and circulate among the grass roots. The People will tell him what they want and he will expect Congress to rubber stamp his decrees.
He is not a Democrat. He is not a member of the Democratic Party. I have no time for a Progressive Trickster.
@A Ghost To Most:
I cut-and-pasted a Nader tweet in an earlier thread, wherein he said approximately the same thing. Were I on Twitter, I would consider responding in a way that would either get me blocked or doxxed. Fortunately, I don’t do Twitter. But you have my sympathies for taking on that bullshit.
@e julius drivingstorm:
How many qualified people fit that bill? Harris, obviously. But few other Senators or Governors.
@e julius drivingstorm: Well, that opens the field a lot. Heh.
My money is on Harris because she and Beau were by all accounts friends.
Sister Golden Bear
@glory b: @Kent: Exactly. He’s got a mammoth blindspot to any problem that’s not income inequality.
Neither putting the heads of the 1% on pikes — nor a $15/hour minimum wage — is going to solve racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, etc.
One thing I see as a contrast between the two is who they surround themselves with on their campaigns and who they would have as members of their administration.
I haven’t read the comments and I might not get to them tonight, but thanks for sharing this, Cole. It’s well thought out. I’m disappointed my first two choices are out and even more disappointed I’ve got two ancient white guys to choose from. Oh well.
@John S.: I had speculated that it would be Booker.
@Martin: Tulsi might be singing along. She may have made the debate with her one American Samoa delegate.
Being transparent, Sanders is closer to my way of seeing the world with the issues facing humanity. With that said, to some extent the rigidity concern does have some positive in that it plants a stake. Too often and to my frustration, the Dems negotiations starts in Repubs territory and only work right from there. I’m not convinced he wouldn’t negotiate and I believe he has shown that in the past.
Aside from my worries of the continuation of neo-liberalism under his administration, as someone who has worked in area of geriatrics, I’m quite concerned about cognitive decline in Biden. The lapses I’m seeing are different than his usual gaffes (e.g. being arrested in South Africa being classified as usual gaffe) which will raise significant concern and under the workload from the campaigning will get more pronounced.
@Baud: I think that’s quality speculation. I can totally see it.
I had planned to vote for Warren in the March 17 Illinois primary and I’m sorry to see her depart. I have no problem shifting over to BIden. My two kids, meanwhile, are Bernie backers. I’m not trying to talk them out of it. The important thing is that they they come to their own conclusions and they are active and engaged.
You have to wonder how many of them were/are real, live voters.
At a minimum, they’re only committed to venting, not to actually showing up, much less doing the hard work of coalition-building.
Observant Jews don’t do Amazing Grace.
@gsp: A non-ironic use of neoliberal?
@Steeplejack: At this point I could definitely go for a Bailey burrito-eating t-shirt or a Dr. Jill kung-fu ‘get away from my man’ t-shirt or both.
Good incentive to get into shape for the summer!
Also a little fun progressive “signaling” down the home stretch ;)
@e julius drivingstorm:. I expected Clyburn would make that ask of Biden. I am happy to hear he is pushing for a VP who is both a POC and a woman of color.
I’m not sure who that will be. I was a Harris fan first. But I am not certain that she would be the best for the ticket. But if he doesn’t pick a woman, I think Jill B. might divorce him. So I don’t think it will be Booker (also reminds everyone of Biden’s ties to the financial industry in perhaps not a good way.)
@Kent: as I recall, he had an interview with Coates in 2016. For all of his revolutionary fervor, he was completely against reparations of any kind. He says they’re unrealistic. Also, Steve Ratner was on Morning Joe today, and said half of Bernie Sanders programs aren’t paid for and he was going by his campaign’s numbers. He also said we would double the size of the federal government and it would be the equivalent of the expansion for World War II. Oh, and he doubted that this would go over well with the American public.
@White & Gold Purgatorian:
Black humor is sometimes the only humor you can muster.
@Kent: IDK, what VP delivers what of importance? What can Kamala deliver other than CA? Can Stacey Abrams deliver GA? Can Warren deliver VA or MI? Pete Indiana? Beto TX?
It won’t matter if they’d make a good Truman if they can’t bring 270.
The numbers game may leave you with a Lieberman.
Old Dan and Little Ann
I’ve been defending Biden against Bernie Bros on the book of faces this past week. I’m sick of their shit. This after taking a long hiatus from arguing politics. I was a big fan of Harris and Warren. The wife has been team Biden since day one. We’ve argued over him over the the last few months. Now, I don’t give one shit that he will hopefully be the nominee. Getting rid of the orange menace is priority number one.
I don’t know if he will make the right pick but he will make a better pick for VP.
The fact that Biden has actually worked in the WH, belonged in the WH is a major factor.
@A Ghost To Most: Yup, you’re right. Democrats are the only party (of 2) that do this kind of nuance and nit-picking. I’m sorry but it’s just true. And maybe not even all Democrats…just the committed or committed-plus ones.
We worry about the little stuff and miss the big picture. In this case, people just wanted a return to some sense of normalcy, a connection to the Obama years (almost the same thing), and no worries about whether or not a woman or person of color or both would lose votes because of that. (I’m not agreeing with those sentiments or defending them, I’m just saying that seems to be the perception. trumpov is an existential threat; therefore, we must make the safest bet and rally hard).
Sometimes politics is only 2-dimensional chess.
@zhena gogolia: We will, have faith! You have a big reading pile handy right? I know I do! =)
I don’t want to say I’m actually looking forward to working from home for X amount of weeks…buuuuuut….
I’d like to see Elizabeth Warren as the Senate Majority leader in 2021. That would be the best outcome.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Yep, I think Bernie surrounding himself with a bunch of people who turned their backs on the Democrats and voted for Jill Stein (and still proudly talk about it to this day) is him giving all of us a big f*** you.
This will be his administration’s leaders.
@Quaker in a Basement: Castro would have been an amazing VP pick for Warren and totally on-point.
Not the greatest match with Biden, though. But he clearly has a bright future in years ahead*
*it’s like with Pete B: these guys could literally run in the next 10 presidential elections if they wanted to! That’s how young they are. I do love our deep bench.
@Poe Larity: I believe Kamala brings in women from all 50 states, Amy possibly too. I am seeing so much rage and grief today, along with my own.
@Barbara: This. Biden’s hidden strength has been that he’s been quietly lifting up and mentoring the next generation of leaders in the Democratic Party, women, minorities, and they remembered that. I expect his VP to be a woman, and likely a woman of color (of course, at this point, it’s just me fantasizing because it’s what makes the most sense to me, so who knows). And because his head’s not completely up his own ass, he knows that he’s old and that he’s (hopefully) picking his successor in 4 to 8 years. He’ll see helping get that glass ceiling broken as part of his legacy.
I wish none of the ancient B’s (Bernie, Biden, and Bloomberg) had run at all, but this is where we are, and I think Biden will give us enough to work with. Sanders can’t even be bothered to ask anyone who doesn’t already like him to vote for him. How is that going to work? And as someone who voted for him 2016, I don’t think he actually cares about his issues all that much. If he did, he’d have a lot more to show in his Congressional record.
I don’t buy any of the polls showing Democrats ahead. All through his campaign, and immediately after he was elected, a sizable portion of Trump’s voters said that they considered his personal behavior to be a problem. Then, unsurprisingly, while they were in the voting booth they realized that they didn’t actually care all that much about that stuff. I think all Trump has to do to beat Biden is refrain from tweeting anything too inflammatory for about two weeks before the election. Then a lot of people who claim that they will vote for Biden will decide that Trump’s not that bad after all.
This is 100% speculation, but as I just posted over at Crooks and Liars, I think there is some evidence that Warren really, really doesn’t think that Sanders should be president. She refrained from endorsing anybody in 2016 until Clinton had enough delegates that she was almost guaranteed the nomination, even though she and Bernie are personal friends and ideological allies. She stayed in the race past super Tuesday even though their hopes that the centrists would continue to split the ticket three ways were dashed, she was clearly behind Bernie, and she stood a good chance of splitting the progressive vote. I’m just starting to wonder if she is trying to decide between somebody who agrees with her on policy, but who she thinks would be a really bad president, and somebody who will be a not-terrible president but is highly unlikely to be aggressive enough to be very effectual.
@Martin: There’s someone else who Biden will probably consult, Obama.
A Ghost To Most
@SFAW: It takes an asshole to stand up to assholes. My family tree uniquely qualifies me for the job, and has given me a lifetime of practice.
I must confess, one key metric that would determine if I’d vote for either is:
1) whether Biden, having a lead, has suddenly decided that a plurality of delegates should be the sole determining factor for the nomination, and/or
2) whether Sanders, in second place, has suddenly decided that a mere plurality is *absolutely* the wrong reason to select a nominee.
I’ll have to vote for a competent adult, so whichever is the nominee has my general election vote. I can say this: if either announced Warren as a running mate, that would swing my preference (especially given the much larger than 0 chance that either could die before being sworn in, or during their term).
This is the #1 reason why I can’t abide a Bernie candidacy.
Disclaimer: I am not trying to convince anyone of anything.
Personally, given the choice between two entirely ineffective Democratic Presidents, I will vote for the one that will not spend four years explaining to me at the top of his lungs how I’m not good enough for a Sanders Presidency.
@A Ghost To Most: I disagree it takes an asshole to stand up to assholes, but I will grant, you can’t stand up to assholes *properly*, unless you understand assholishness – and most people learn best from the inside.
(In fact, I’d bet *no one* really learns about assholes unless they are one, or have gone through multiple events, where they reacted with “OMG, I didn’t think *anyone* would do that, *EVER*!!!”)
@Martin: ahhhhh… I kinda pegged Harris as Active/Negative because of her Uncompromising nature on matters of social/civil justice. Not a *bad* A/N like Nixon or LBJ, but more akin to a Carter or John Adams…
blog link: https://noticeatrend.blogspot.com/2019/07/predicting-character-force-of-harris.html
Very reasonable summary. I am not confident of either winning but think Biden has the edge. I have an objection to Bernie that you didn’t mention: his smearing of the Democratic party. I think Bernie’s roll is to re-elect Trump. NOt deliberately. But those who let their version of the perfect interfere with the good are responsible for the evil that results. Republicans love Bernie because he is poisoning the water for any other Dem candidate. The election will be close, down to thousands in a few states. The Rethuglicans will engage in every kind of voter suppression they can dream up. Their hope is that just enough voters will think “Oh fuck it Biden’s not worth standing in line,, the Dems are just a bunch of corporate cheaters anyway,” and not vote. I’m sure that Bernie will give at least some support to Biden if Biden wins and I am sure that he does not want to re-elect Trump, but I do think his rhetoric is helpful to Republicans and I can’t for give him for that. (Though I will vote for whoever the nominee is)
Who the hell knows. My personal choice is Val Demings. Badass black woman with an amazing American life story who runs marathons, rides a Harley, and is an expert marksman (markswoman?). Turn her loose in WI, PA, and MI to bring out the African American vote in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philly that would bridge the gap in those states. Hell, if riding a Harley around Milwaukee doesn’t win you votes, I don’t know what will.
Kamala Harris seems to be the popular choice here, but Demings is much more the authentic African American story, direct descendant of slaves, daughter of a maid and janitor, grew up in a 2-room house in the 60s with 7 siblings. First in her family to go to college. went to Florida State not Harvard.
Hasn’t been in Congress that long, but fuckit, running a major big city police department as chief of police is a much more consequential job than small town mayor of South Bend. Bigger budgets, more employees, higher profile, more life and death issues.
Bernie’s lifetime objective is to tear down the Democratic party and rebuild it in his image. If the Presidency happens as a part of that quest then fine, if not, then bygones. He isn’t doing anything actually required to build a electoral majority much less a majority governing coalition.
@Mallard Filmore: I hear you and can relate on this issue (as you may have seen/read once or twice =)
It is extremely frustrating and maddening when it’s folks that are this close. I just try to turn it back on them and remind them that nothing about trumpov or trumpism comes close to actual, principled conservative values that they claim/claimed to have. As has been clear for almost 5 years now, trumpism = white male supremacy and (therefore) grievance politics. It offers nothing else.
Whenever we engage on politics, I usually point out their IOKIYAR double standards and reliance on bad information, which is why their fever dream of a brokered Dem convention going up in smoke was so delightful. I’m STILL not done sending those emails. =)
Hang in there and keep a light heart!
Dirt was around when I was born, so beyond just fucking old.
Was it dirt or sand that Moses walked on when he parted the sea? Because that would make it really, really, really fucking old. But it really depends on if the earth is flat or has flatulence. And as it does actually fart once in a while, say on the big island, and the lava generally lands on dirt, that makes dirt really, really, really, really, really fucking old. And yes I’ve been on the big island and have seen lava on dirt, so dirt is older than earth farts.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I saw that too. Didn’t sound like she’ll endorse Sanders, huh? I hope he realizes someday how much his most toxic supporters have hurt his campaign, but of course he won’t, the cantankerous coot.
Bernie’s lack of understanding of his core issues is insulting. His slogans are as deep as it goes.
Moby? Try MoB instead
A Ghost To Most
@LongHairedWeirdo: Most people aren’t willing to get in someone’s face. Being semi-feral, I have no issue with it.
Come on…this post is really silly. The choice is completely obvious for any rational democrat.
@John S.: That would be pretty cool. Both of them could really rock the aviators (or “cop shades”, as my kids call them. =)
But I bet Kamala can rock the “cop shades” too!
@SFAW: I usually link to MoB. I went for variety. I prefer Moby’s to The Catherine Wheel’s version.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Obama asked Harris to be his Atty General.
What about the current Governor of New Mexico — Michelle Lujan Grisham? Hispanic, was in the House for 3 terms (now that seat has Deb Haaland) before becoming Gov. last year. I wonder how much Nancy likes her?
@Ruckus: He didn’t just work in the White House, Biden was the fucking VP for 8 years. If ANYONE knows what that job entails, it is Biden. I trust him 1000x more to pick the right person over Sanders. And we have to TRUST because the VP isn’t usually picked until the voting is over.
South Carolina said everything to me about Sanders. He had four years to reflect on how he completely tanked in the south. He could have spent so much time talking with people, engaging communities of color, figuring out what he needed to do to connect with them better. Hell, if he didn’t want to he didn’t actually even need to actually connect, he just needed to act like he did. He could have worked with Jim Clyburn to, you know, help him out there. And he didn’t, because he didn’t feel like he needed to adjust to anyone else, they needed to adjust to him. And it’s not like this primary was any surprise, it’s been on the fucking calendar for four years. Think about it, if he made any sort of effort there, and manages the margin of defeat to maybe 5-10%, he probably would have coasted on Tuesday and been the nominee. But no, he couldn’t be bothered to put the work in. And once he didn’t get the Clyburn endorsement, did he stay there and say, we don’t let the establishment tell us who to vote for? Nope, hightailed it up to Massachusetts as some sort of Warren trolling. If he’s refusing to engage in any meaningful way now, at the possible expense of his own campaign, why should I believe it’s going to be any different in the general election?
@PaulWartenberg: I see her as more positive based on how she wielded the office to achieve broader policy goals she shared with Brown. Her departures from other state AGs to achieve better settlements with mortgage companies, for instance. I never took that as a personal uncompromising position.
I would buy one of those.
Not a hard choice for me, Biden. Bernie is a jerk. But i already voted, Warren, in Virginia..
@Martin: reasonably argued.
I’m finding it really worrying that this website is closest to where I’m at with all of this. (Worries about group-think and liking jackals having too much influence.) But this got it for me tonight.
Well, I’ve known 2 women who worked until their mid 80s. My mom and my boss’s mom. Both as sharp at mid 80s as many are at 40. Mom lived to 95 and boss’s mom is still around and driving at 92. Now neither of them worked at a job of the level of president, nor could I believe either of them could have. But neither of them was at Warren’s level. So while I’m concerned with late 70s I was far less concerned with Warren at 70. BTW Warren and I are within 3 weeks of the same age and I would not want the job of president at my age. I’ve had about 100 people working for me when I worked in pro sports but not directly, I had 5 direct subordinates, but I was responsible for the results of all of them. I had 6 direct when I was in the navy and a max of 8 direct when I owned my own business and signed their checks.
@glory b: Well here is an interesting detail on the Hispanic vote in Texas. When Biden was riding high early one, Biden had a clear lead among Hispanics in Texas. Then Biden slipped, Sanders surged and just a few days before Super Tuesday, a good poll suggested that Hispanic voters would be the key to putting Bernie over the top. But then Beto o’Rourke came out pro-Biden (as did Klobuchar and Buttigieg) and Biden then won the Texas primary by 5%. That same poll regarding Hispanic voters supporting Sanders said Biden would lose to Sanders by over 10%. That must reflect a big shift in Latinx voters in just a few short days.
That’s why I think the Hispanic vote (such as it is) is primarily a “who can rid us of Trump” vote first and foremost.
And Cubans and Nicaraguans and Puerto Ricans in Florida do not seem to be feeling the Bern.
Biden for me, easily. He can get a lot more done.
@Ruckus: Bernie and Biden are ~78 going on 90. Warren is 70 going on 60.
I’m moving from Warren to Biden in the primary. It’ll probably destroy the. I just don’t see Sanders
picking up any of the states Clinton lost. I’m tired of having to think about it any longer.
I don’t think that this old political calculation matters anymore.
The Democratic Party nominee should pick someone smart and young. The rest is commentary.
@Kent: That’s certainly true of Demings, and I certainly wouldn’t be upset to see that but a few points regarding Harris:
Climate change is the ballgame and she comes from the place that does it. Turn her loose.
And I think her youthfulness is a plus. She’s only slightly younger than Val, and nowhere near as young as Stacy, but she has a youthful energy. She lifts people up. Warren’s personality is similar. We need that.
I’m 10,000 miles away and my eyes are not that great any more, but even I can see that the choice of Democratic Party Nominee is easy.
You vote for the Democrat.
@Steeplejack: Someone with a little more web-savvy than me could probably have designs done and available on a website before the week is out, is all I’m sayin’ … ;)
something like that!
You know this kind of stuff is bullshit, don’t you?
Late into the thread, but I am somewhat in awe of Cole’s willingness to lay out his thinking, especially in front of this pack of jackals (j/k on the last part – it’s *way* safer than doing it on Twitter). I’m certainly not going to drag him for it.
To the extent that it’s helpful to Cole or anyone else, I voted for Warren but made up my mind about Biden versus Sanders a while ago, in case I wasn’t going to get to vote for Warren for some reason. The pick was Biden because I really have trouble envisioning an effective Sanders Administration, given the people he’s surrounded himself with and his own apparent disinterest in the nuts and bolts of governing. Biden will pick a pretty standard Dem cabinet and staff agencies in the same way. He also will bring back a lot of people who learned the ropes in the Obama Administration, and one of the most important things we will need is people who know what buttons to push to undo the Trump damage as fast as possible. That is likely to happen with Biden; not so much with Sanders, who easily could spend his entire first year trying to find people to fill jobs.
This should be engraved in stone somewhere prominent in DC. Maybe in the address rock outside the WH. MF works for us. Not just the 1% fucks or the far left brogressive bunch, or – wait, he doesn’t act like he has any real friends…
@Brachiator: Thank you for calling it out. I think Clyburn said it best when he said that Obama was the most obvious African American — His father was an African and his mother was an American.
This whole “descendant of slaves” divide must have been dreamt up by Atwater.
show me a poll that any number of Black voters national have ANY idea who Val Dennings is.
I don’t think you know what you’re talking about.
randal m sexton
This is pretty nice work, and is similar to the sorts of talks I have been having. It is pretty challenging to talk to younger folks and explain some of these pro/cons.
I wish the back button worked.
@Immanentize: Thanks for the analysis.
@Ruckus: but proves my point…age is nothing but a number when it’s someone you like.
So yeah…it’s two ole guys, but the lady wasn’t much younger, just appears and carries herself in a way that makes herself seem younger.
if age is a negative, then it should also be a negative for Warren
I’d like to add this, Sanders was REALLY pissy in the Maddow interview yesterday, when he said Hillary’s popularity with African Americans was because we like Bill.
Once again, dismissing a woman’s work.
@Kent: It was pretty well known right out of the gate as Obamacare, so I’m not sure that your point holds water.
@Brachiator: I don’t think it is. There is something very importantly symbolic for a descendant of slaves to be elected president.
Put another way, back in 2008, every african american student and colleague I have brought that up about Obama. Thankful he might be elected, but there’s still a box they need to see checked.
Maybe, but picking a VP too early can also be presented as an act of desperation in the press. “Candidate A is already picking a VP! Must be desperate to shore up support in that candidate’s base!”
Probably better to take the traditional route and announce the VP nom. just before the convention, or at least no earlier than when the Presidential nomination is all locked up.
I’d bet that Biden names his VP early. Waiting till after the election would be a major mistake, for all the reasons that his age and multiple times he’s run for president prior to this point out. As I stated, he’s not my first or second choice, but at this time I feel he’s the best choice of the available. Which has always been the case over the 50 yrs I will have voted in November.
@glory b: If that’s all it was, one presumes she would have screwed up the relationship in her 16 years of government service after her husband retired the presidency.
I voted for Bernie here in MI in 2016, but turned in my absentee ballot today marked for Warren (I found out after I got home and turned on my computer she had withdrawn, but I’m still proud of that vote – as proud as I was for having voted McGovern in my first election). I’m good with Joe – a little afraid he will waste two years trying to get Mitt Romney’s vote for anything, but he’ll at least return us to a semblance of normalcy.
@Immanentize: I’m not sure how much of an impact O’Rourke had on the Latino vote. Biden still lost Beto’s home district of El Paso. And in his senate primary Latino counties are where he performed the worst. He may call himself “Beto” but he really doesn’t have much pull with the Latino community statewide. If the Latino vote swung late to Biden it probably had a lot more to do with SC than anything Beto did.
@Jinchi: The weird thing is that people seem to have amnesia as a relates to this aspect of the Obama presidency. Working across the aisle actually did work for Obama. Obama needed three Republican votes for his stimulus Bill otherwise his administration would be dead and he got all three. Obama needed something like 10 Republican votes to repeal don’t ask don’t tell and he got them. Obama needed a similarl number of votes to get the new start treaty signed with Russia and he got them. Obama needed two or three Republican votes for finance reform and he got them. And even when it comes to Health Care, Obama actually did better than getting a Republican vote he actually got a republican in the form of Arlen Specter to become a Democrat to give him the 60th vote. Health Care reform, Finance reform, the New Start treaty, repealing don’t ask don’t tell, some of Obama’s biggest accomplishments never would have happened without him reaching out to Republicans on a regular basis. People seem to forget that he had a lot of success with this approach.
Biden was part of an administration that worked to make events that inspired and included children. (He was so lucky.) I can’t picture Biden being anywhere near as great at it as the Obamas, but I can picture him continuing that work by hiring people who are. My picture of a Sanders presidency is more of a leader + entourage who are centered on themselves. Maybe I’m wrong. But I don’t want the model for kids to be the Sanders’ style of interaction with people who aren’t 100% in *The* movement and who suggest different ideas.
The Obamas made a point when in public of displaying a style that didn’t bully and treated all kinds as important and as their equals. (As the most intelligent and gifted people do.) I think (hope) Biden will try similar symbolism. I haven’t seen that style in the Sanders people who claim the center and the air rights. We’re social mimics; the MBAs, Cheneys, Trumps, Wall Street and military-dominant posturing have already done too much damage. It matters for the country to try to reverse that instead of modeling it on into the future.
Also we need to see the S. and B. VP choices, which I hope might show their attitudes toward people who aren’t them. Also their decision reasoning. And we can’t actually argue about electability without knowing the VP.
But my bias is that Sanders is more likely to lose. Also, the media is crazed about portraying reversals and giving us shocks, and Trump is still good at feeding that. (I expect lots more of his manipulations of “Trump said that? He’s finished now.” “Surprise! He’s Teflon.”) The up and down will be exhausting and destructive, and I feel Biden’s image *might* be able to remain steadier than Bernie’s through that.
OK, I was concerned there for a minute.
Catherine Wheel’s is closer to the MoB “vibe,” although I think they changed some lyrics. Moby changed some notes, those changes gave it a more “pop” feel — less raw — to me, so I down-vote it.
I have Trem Two squirreled away somewhere, but I like it less than signals, calls, and marches. I think Miller and Conley went for the more “layered” sound on TT, but it’s been at least 35 years since I listened to it, so maybe my memory is playing tricks.
I’m ride or die on the no malarkey jitney! Biden’s the Democrat in the race.
Job 1 is beat trump. Job 2 is hold the House and gain the Senate. Bern doesn’t seem all the interested in job 2. And I seriously doubt he can get to 271 electoral votes.
Not even a question in my mind who is the better candidate.
Not a particularly good metric for this race: Joe doesn’t drink.
Bullshit. This is almost like saying that the first woman VP should be a victim of domestic abuse.
And then they voted for him anyway.
@anarchoRex: Hmm. That makes my working hypothesis even more likely — that some significant portion of the Latinx vote is working strategically. And maybe a little Catholic stuff thrown in as well?
As disclosure — I taught for eight years at St. Mary’s University on San Antonio…. That Catholic stuff is not nuthin’ in South Texas.
I remember reading this (from 2015) years ago, but I forgot how it opened:
It’s a good read.
@Lacuna Synecdoche: And Warren was the beer drinker.
@E: Nice summary. I followed the Obama administration pretty closely and could not have come up with that list. Thanks.
@Lacuna Synecdoche: Neither did W. Didn’t stop people from using that as a sorting hat.
@zhena gogolia: What you don’t like the mystery of being shunted to a random location in the comments when you press the BACK button? //
Maybe so. But he will almost certainly wait until he has the nomination locked up before going into general election mode. That means the great majority of primary voters who have to chose between him and Sanders will still be making their choice on faith that he will pick the right VP. And I have a lot more faith that Biden will do so than I do Sanders.
If elected, one will get nothing done because he will refuse to compromise; the other will be trampled over because he will insist on working with McConnell et al. How quickly this has turned into a choice for the less worse!
I agree. I work in a machine shop, on my feet for 8 hrs and walk a mile to and from work. And on my days off I walk 2 miles at a clip that passes most. And I wouldn’t want to look forward to the presidency every day. It’s a non stop, high stress job every minute of every day. And it’s the stress that gets you. I’ve had a heart attack, didn’t even know it happened but the physical evidence is there and stress never, ever helps avoid that.
Yeah, why would he do that, anyway??!
Especially since we’re going to get that whether or not he’s elected.
Well I can only speak from personal experience but mine is that women age a bit slower than men, in very general terms. In my life I’ve known more women who were still sharpe at an age when many men are obviously slowing down. Might be not having to carry around that appendage, who knows. Add in that not everyone ages at the same rate at all, like the man I once met who looked and acted a young 65 (and of course me having passed that young age a bit ago….) but who was 95 at the time. If I shaved off my white beard I’d look about 20 yrs younger. I wouldn’t feel any different but as I tell my docs who say I look very young for my age – looks are deceiving. But Warren is/has been keeping up a very brisk schedule and never seemed to show it at all. That’s impressive from my perspective.
Paul M Gottlieb
John, your analysis seems pretty accurate, but completely irrelevant! The other party’s candidate is Donald Trump! So screw the analysis. I am supporting [insert nominee’s name here] with my money, my time, my heart and my soul! And so should you
But will that be portrayed as a too-late, pale imitation of Trump’s brilliant move of dumping Pence and making Ivanka his running mate?
Heh, but she’d vote for the man who called his son his wife’s son. //
@Immanentize: I mean your probably right, but it seems like almost a truism that a significant portion of most voting populations votes strategically.
I don’t. And I say that as someone who will probably be supporting Biden if my vote still counts by the time the primaries reach my back of the pack (albeit large) primary state.
But for my entire adult life, I’ve been a progressive who’s watched us make little progress, and in some cases watched us actually regress (minimum wage for instance) – in large part because Republican administrations keep getting more extreme and more fascist while Democrats are constantly expected to keep bringing us back to a normal that is relentlessly sliding a little more rightward with each right-left cycle instead of advancing a more progressive agenda.
It’s dispiriting. It’s discouraging. I’m 55 years old, and I first voted during (and against) the Reagan administration; I’ve watched the right go from Nixon to Reagan to Bush I to Bush II to Trump; I’ve been watching the rich get richer, the middle class stagnate, and get poorer, and the poor get poorer, all my life; and for once, I would like to see an actual progressive pushing actually progressive policies in the White House instead of another fucking return to centrist-normal and incrementalism that never quite undoes the damage of the previous right-wing society-wrecking administration.
Sorry. I just needed to vent before resigning myself yet again to … lowered expectations.
@Another Scott: I mean, I’m an actual living resident of El Paso, but go ahead and tell me how you know my former congressman better than I do.
@Brachiator: I’m not saying it affects their vote. I’m saying it’s symbolically important to them.
@debbie: Or the guy who confused “origins” with “oranges”, not once, but multiple times.
That you are an idiot for thinking that is a positive? Maybe time stands still in West Virginia, but the rest of the world has changed quite a bit in the last 40 years.
@Lacuna Synecdoche: The only way to do that is to make sure the Democratic President has a Democratic Congress to work with. Both Clinton and Obama only had a Democratic Congress their first two years in office and both got quite a bit done in those two years. Imagine what they could do if they had 8 years.
@debbie: one at the top of the ballot could mean flipping the Senate so McConnell is no longer in charge…The other one could mean a Dem President with a divided Congress or another 4 years of Chump at least w/a divided Congress to keep his agenda be rubberstamped, or even worse re-elected Chump now with GOP control of BOTH houses.
In my mind, only one of the ole guys remaining I know which one I think is the better less risky choice…
The thing that pisses me off is that, having reached late middle-age, I can still only fucking imagine it, having never had the actual experience, as an adult, of a unified Democratic federal gov’t for more than two years.
Not going to read the whole thread, but I have a comparison/contrast for you on the subject of “staffing is policy.”
Biden’s senior campaign advisor, Symone Sanders, charged onto a stage and tackled the animal rights protester who was interrupting Biden’s speech.
Sanders’ speechwriter, David Sirota, spends so much time searching Twitter for mentions of his own name that he missed the news that Klobuchar and Buttigieg had announced that they were suspending their campaigns.
Who’s better at picking professional, dedicated staffers who do their jobs and are willing to go above and beyond?
That’s why we also need to get rid of McConnell, who has a great opponent in Amy McGrath. Attack the problem at both ends.
This infuriates me. Harris’ father is a black Jamaican. Do people think a bunch of Africans decided to go to Jamaica for a nice vacation and stayed? Her mother was Indian, but on her father’s side, she’s as much a descendant of slaves as I am.
Also, she went to Howard and pledged AKA, which probably makes her blacker than I am.
Next time you are at a meeting or something, try this experiment. Ask for a headcount of “authentic Negroes.”
Let us know how things went, and whether you avoided an ass beating.
ETA: Right wing asswipes like Dinesh D’Souza throw around the idea that Obama is somehow less authentic (also meaning less really American) than someone like Ben Carson. Some of these fools even outright said in public that one day America would have an “authentic” black president, playing that game of trying to de-legitimize and erase Obama.
When Colin Powell thought about running for president, there were some rumbles in some segments of the black community that he was not “authentic” because his parents were from Jamaica, even though he was born in New York City.
It is a dangerous and foolish game to indulge this kind of bullshit.
James E Powell
This is a very easy choice for me. Sanders just doesn’t have it.
You hit the nail on the head.
early in his life Bernie read a bunch of books which he shouts about – louder every year. He uses catch phrases that sound important. But Bernie is shallow. The more I learn about him the more he sounds like a Trump variant.
He is rigid and shallow. He doesn’t play well with others. He won’t do well on the International diplomatic relations front.
We can do better than either of these two old farts.
@PeakVT: Kamala Harris is 55, and that seems like a perfect age to me.
This thread is long, but it’s a pretty good representation of where I’m at. I’m not thrilled about our choices, but since I have to choose, I’ll choose the guy who at least knows how to pilot the janky old snowcat down the mountain than the guy who wants to stand around and tell me how great it’s gonna be when a brand-new snowcat shows up any day now.
To add to Sanders list of virtues: physical and political courage. It took guts to get arrested by Richard J. Daley’s cops, and it’s taken a lot of guts for him to stand his political ground over the years. Furthermore he’s been right on a lot of things before almost anyone else: pro-choice before Roe v Wade, right on climate change back as far as 1987, right on criminal justice back in the 1990s. He used to be pretty good at compromise, back when. He earned his sobriquet “amendment king.” This doesn’t make him perfect, but these are real virtues.
On the other hand: he’s a feisty secular Jew from Brooklyn, and most US Protestants don’t know what to make of him. I think this is especially an issue for him with Southern African-Americans. He’s also an old hippie, and this is also an issue for the more uptight sort of Protestants. My impression is that, like Biden, he is also showing his age. It used to be harder to bait him.
And, as you say, it’s not clear that people will vote for him. There is both more antisemitism than we like to admit, and not a little anti-socialism.
BTW, Warren clearly was the real Democratic unity candidate. In a sane primary electoral system where single divisible vote was used, or even ranked choice, Warren most likely would have won.
It is worth remembering that how we vote influences the outcome of elections.
@Lacuna Synecdoche: I share your frustration. It feels like the Republicans go wild and push their most out-there positions and elect idiots like W and Trump, and then Democrats are expected to come in and “be normal” — and to fix the mess the Republicans made. When Obama took office, he was basically stuck with being the guy at the end of the (Republican) elephant parade, trying to clear away the huge, stinking piles they left. It made it hard for him to do the things he wanted to do. And, of course, after 8 years of sober, conscientious governing, the American public then decided to go wild again. I’m surprised more elected Democrats haven’t given up. But they can’t, and we can’t.
I voted for my second choice. The woman I really wanted to take on the Dolt wasn’t on our ballot. At least she’s still our Senator. And I’ve got my eye on a replacement for DiFi. She’s already been in charge of the CA Assembly and the State Senate…
For the Prez, I’ll settle for voting for the last Democrat standing.
ETA: Ok, west coast ppl, who is she?
@Mnemosyne: uhhhh, Symone worked on Bernie’s 2016 campaign.
Well said, Cole. One thing I think you’re missing is that Biden also has some pretty glaring general election liabilities just like Sanders. Biden is not likely to perform well in the extemporaneous things like debates, public appearances. And I think the Hunter stuff may turn out just like Clinton’s emails.
They both poll well v. Trump, but I don’t think either wins by some of the large numbers they’re polling ahead of him right now.
I’d be more comfortable with a Sanders pick if his stans spent a fifth of the energy they spend patrolling for enemies on instead flipping the Senate. Plus his downballot actions in 2016 are not inspiring. I have a lot to think about these next 11 days.
@Barbara: Very good point. Mr. Biden has been very complimentary towards people like Pete Buttigieg, Beto. He said of AOC that he admired her intelligence.
By the way, if you haven’t yet, watch the video of his reunion with Buttigieg when Buttigieg endorsed him. Good stuff.
@Martin: And that’s why the Jill and Joe Biden were so hurt by Kamala’s little stunt at the first (or was it the second?) debate.
@Omnes Omnibus: Thank you. Biting my keyboard.
Yep, and this year she’s ridin’ with Biden. Why would she make that choice, do you think?
@E: And Biden helped, worked for many of those republican votes.
@Mnemosyne: here’s an article that let’s her put it in her own words. You can draw your own conclusions, she only has good things to say about everyone in the article.
1 Biden opposes Single payer universal health care – 2 Biden opposes Strengthened Social Security, not privatized – 3 Biden opposes Progressive tax system: Those who benefit more from the system pay proportionally more to maintain the system 4 Biden opposes Tuition-free higher education paid by tax on financial system transactions – 5 Biden opposes Affordable childcare and paid sick leave – 6 Biden opposes Reformed judicial system eliminating prison-for-profit system – 7 Biden opposes $15 per hour minimum wage – 8 Biden opposes Ending the Democratic/ Republican endless wars 9 Biden opposes accelerating the change to renewable energy sources – 10 Biden opposes Fair trade policies, not “free trade” – 11 Biden opposes a Review of patent, copyright and monopoly legislation to reduce monopolies on drugs and internet –
Can’t say as I disagree with anything you’ve said here, John.
My sentiments exactly.
The only thing I’ll add is that I’ll vote for Sanders if he’s the eventual nominee but I’m getting really fed up with the “Bernistas” shrill rhetoric about “the Establishment”. I am no “establishment Democrat” but it’s unrealistic to expect that a President Sanders is going to be able to enact even a quarter of his proposed agenda without a major ideological shift in both Congress and this country as a whole.
And that ain’t gonna happen.
@Ruckus Thanks. Grimly.
@Ken Exactly. Why pay for what I’ll get for free?
That’s exactly it. I have voted every year for decades. Only a few times have I been able to vote for someone I actually wanted, as opposed to voting to stop the other candidate/party. I was so hoping this would be one of those rare years, but no.
An apt comparison! Evoking The Shining is the perfect metaphor for this election season.
And how realistic is it to think any of those 11 things will get enacted in this political atmosphere?
@debbie: This, 100%.
@anarchoRex: Hey, maybe think about what you type, eh?
(My dad was born in your fine city.)
Biden’s record is bad in so many ways, I think it’d be very tough for me to vote for him in a primary–I care about ideas and programs more than personalities. With Sanders I have all sorts of reservations about his personality and the people he surrounds himself with, but at least it’s a vote for the right positions. If I had to choose, I’d probably at least lean in his direction. As it was, I got to vote for Warren so it wasn’t an issue.
As others have said upthread, we’re in a climate crisis, and we don’t have much time.
What scares me is that I can’t see either of these guys having a light bulb going off over their heads and realizing, “maybe maintaining the arcane Senate tradition known as the filibuster is less critical than saving the fucking planet.”
Bernie thinks his ‘revolution’ will pressure GOP Senators to vote for climate change legislation, and Biden thinks he can negotiate a good deal with Mitch McConnell.
This would be hilarious if neither of these guys had a chance of being President. Unfortunately…
The other thing about the climate crisis is, we really have to get it done in ’21.
If the Dems can’t deal with global warming, they also won’t do the sorts of good things that will get people to show up and vote D in 2022: raising the minimum wage, expanding the ACA, forgiving student debt and making college affordable, expanding worker protections (and enforcing the ones we’ve got), etc.
And if those things (and laws protecting the right to vote) don’t pass, the Dems will get slaughtered in 2022, and won’t regain Congress until 2030 maybe, and by then it’s too late.
So it really is now or never. And even most Dems are far from realizing that.
@low-tech cyclist: “we” is doing a lot of heavy lifting, there.
The US has less than 5% of the world’s population.
The whole industrial and developing world has to be in on the solution, and whatever the next President does isn’t going to fix the climate issues on its own. It’s going to take decades of effort.
Yes, we need to get moving, and things like John Anderson’s 50 cents/gallon gas tax would have helped a great deal, but don’t over-emphasize what the US government can do on it’s own. There is no silver bullet, and rhetoric that says that if we don’t fix it NOW NOW NOW (or by 2021) then we’re doomed isn’t helpful.
@Suzy: This is how I read that: The Harris campaign’s strategy was to hang in through IA & NH, then parlay her connections with AA women (particularly professional women, e.g., AKA sorority sisters) to a big showing in SC & build on that to victory in CA on 3/3 . Instead it was found that group was breaking heavily for Biden. The campaign concluded that Harris would get those votes only if Joe was discredited (if not actually knocked out of the race) – so she went after him hammer & tongs.
And it blew up in her face, because (IMO) AA women are, on all issues save civil rights, profoundly conservative: their priority is to conserve and consolidate the progress that African Americans have (slowly, painfully) made before reaching farther. Cheeto Benito has torn away decades of that progress in three years, to where they & theirs were at immediate risk.
Job 1 in 2020 is therefore to defeat him & remove his people & their influence from the Federal government – everything else will have to wait.
Again IMO, they saw Harris as offputting to many of the voters (mostly white, also some AA men) that would be needed to win in November, whereas “Uncle Joe” was broadly acceptable to that electorate. And as Obama’s faithful sidekick for 8 years, they trusted him (as much as they trust any old white guy) to understand their concerns and advance their agendas as well as possible under the circumstances.
At which point the $$$ for Harris dried up rapidly, and (once more IMO) this is why her attacks on Biden not only failed to dent his campaign, the rebound effectively broke her own. JMO, YMMV.
@Another Scott: My dad was born in Amarillo, doesn’t mean I know jack about it. Maybe don’t assume people don’t know what they’re talking about before you reply, eh?
@Lacuna Synecdoche: next day, dead thread, and all, I agree. I don’t think its helpful to name one’s VP choice too soon. It should happen closer to convention time.
@anarchoRex: The only thing I called you out on was your snide remark about him calling himself Beto.