Here are some early thoughts about what the Pence Task Force should do, coming out of my experience in project management.
Determine who is in charge. In Donald Trump’s typical desire to weaken subordinates and watch them fight, he has appointed three people as being in charge of the task force. No work will get done unless they agree who is to be the responsible decision-maker. Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of Pharmaceutical Profit Alex Azar, or Ambassador Deborah Birx, MD. Once a leader is determined, all members of the task force must turn back Trump’s meddling on this issue.
As a part of setting up a responsibility structure, leaders must be chosen for subgroups as noted in the following topics.
Communications. Shut Trump down unless he learns something and can control his fear and inclination to improvise. Even then, his best play would be to act as a listener in his roundtable discussions and allow the experts to speak. Get a name for the task force: “Coronavirus Task Force” would do. Refer to it that way. Expert briefings every day, with no restrictions on video and recording. The topic of the briefing should vary from day to day, emphasizing recent developments. Lists of actions individuals can take should be posted on the internet and made available to local newspapers and governments. Hotlines should be set up. Communications should be accurate and should tell people what to expect.
Detection, treatment, and vaccine. Set up a National Academy of Sciences panel to investigate what went wrong with CDC’s development and distribution of detection kits. More urgently, decide on one kit and a recommended protocol for deciding who is to be tested. (This may have been done already, but they claimed it was done almost a week ago, and now it is being claimed again.) Make testing free to those being tested. Get the lab work on treatment and a vaccine out of the public eye. Report no claims until they are verified. Form a panel of experts to evaluate claims and recommend ways forward.
Community planning. State and local resources must be included in planning. The Public Health Service has a large role to play, although its funding has been greatly reduced under the Trump administration. Funding should be restored. Recommended standards must be developed for closing down events that involve large numbers of people or schools and for limiting movement of people within states or localities.
Maintaining essential services. Develop plans for maintaining garbage collection and availability of water and sewage services if large numbers of employees are absent because of illness. Hospitals need similar plans. Payment for medical services may need to be changed from emphasis on individuals. Grocery stores must continue to provide fresh food; plans must be made for people to access them.
Supply chains. There are three scales on which supply chains must be considered: international, within countries, and locally. Internationally, China supplies many pharmaceuticals and much medical equipment. Their shutdowns are affecting availability. International shipping is a vulnerable point, as airlines shut down flights. Essential chains (food, drugs, supplies to keep water, natural gas, sewage processing running) within the US must be identified and reinforced. Within communities, it may be necessary to set up food deliveries and monitoring of the most vulnerable in their homes.
Congress must be involved as well. Each subgroup must have a legislative liaison to the appropriate Congressional committees.
That’s a start. People who know more than I do about the specifics can fill in what I haven’t included. Would be good to hear from Pence and the task force that they are addressing these issues.
Cervantes
Making serious, thoughtful suggestions to this insane doofus would seem to be a category error.
PenAndKey
That’s what should happen. It’s not, however what will happen. You nailed it at the start of the article: “Donald Trump’s typical desire to weaken subordinates and watch them fight”. He’s a narcissistic incompetent. As long as he’s in charge there’s no chance any we’re getting a competent federal response.
NotMax
Then there’s what we’ll actually be getting:
Blather, wince, repeat.
catclub
@Cervantes: I disagree. Documentation matters.
patrick II
I have a dog who I am going to train to balance my checkbook.
Cheryl Rofer
Another pity party! Get a grip.
If we don’t propose useful stuff, the incompetent win.
I can’t even read the politics comment threads any more.
If you don’t have something useful to say, STFU
I’m taking the cats out now.
Butch
I think the best plan would be to disband the current task force and set up one made up of people who know what they’re doing. Of course, my next plan is for me to grow wings and fly to Neptune.
NotMax
@Cheryl Rofer
Oh, please. All you propose is what quaintly used to be referred to as Standard Operating Procedure.
Something which this maladministration actively and regularly disdains, pisses on and rejects. Pointing that out isn’t piteous, it’s realism.
Brachiator
This is a good and useful benchmark.
I do not agree that it is bad or negative to note that the Trump administration will try to do the wrong thing. I expect the health professionals to try to do their jobs despite any opposition from Trump and Pence. And I appreciate getting some insight into what best practices might be.
dmsilev
@Cheryl Rofer: Useful steps, IMO, start with state and local governments, since at this point they’re far more likely to be responsive to people’s actual needs than That Guy is. States have the resources to spool up their own testing programs, and should be working with the various local authorities to set up (or activate existing) the various contingency plans you outline.
Ella in New Mexico
This is great! I’m bookmarking this for when my workplace inevitably will need to use it. :-O
I will say, yesterday’s news conference ran better than any so far, and I think it’s because they’re doing a lot of what you outline here, including leaving Trump out of as much public stuff as they can. Pence did a reasonable job of speaking factually and in a calm and reassuring manner (never failing an opportunity to slather praise on Great and All Knowing Leader) , but deferring to Fauci and the HHS/CDC people around him to answer specific questions.
I think it’s maybe why they had a work meeting with no video/audio before–he just looks and talks like a frigging idiot and literally absorbs NONE of the info right in front of your eyes. The subtle message right now is: We know, we know but please don’t listen to him, listen to us. Really bad look if you’re trying to prop him up as even marginally competent.
Thanks, Cheryl.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
kind of OT, but with your experience in project management do you have any particular software tools that you keep going back to? There’s a pretty dizzying array of software choices out there.
My PI has a rather chaotic management style, and as his post-doc I’ve been using Microsoft Project a bit for my internal use, but that’s also a pretty hefty bit of code that is almost overkill for my needs (I’m the sole post-doc in a group of 20 grads and undergrads so it’s not utter overkill), but I’m always keeping my ears open for good tools and tips.
W
Leto
@dmsilev: In which you’ll see blue states put resources towards getting this under control, and red states following Trumpov’s lead and sending everyone to work/school/public outings. The talking heads on MSNBC made a good point that part of the reason we’re seeing the Dow continue to plunge is because the corporate world has zero trust in what’s coming out of the WH in regard to the Coronavirus response.
Bill Arnold
Pretty good start. This underplays the role of behavior modifications to slow disease spread.[2] In particular, individual level behavior changes need to be promoted more vigorously, basically (a professional can rewrite this):
– Hand washing (to reduce the probability of you or a loved one of becoming a corpse)
– Training away face touching [1] (to reduce the probability of you or a loved one of becoming a corpse)
– Social distance as a habit – first order this means no handshaking, and keeping a meter or two of distance from everyone, and much much more distance if they’re sneezing or coughing, and avoiding touching shared surfaces. Higher order, working from home, particularly for those that normally work in open-plan
death hivesoffices.[1] Trump Says ‘I Haven’t Touched My Face in Weeks’ at Coronavirus Meeting: ‘I Miss It’ (Josh Feldman, Mar 4th, 2020)
He’s lying (there are photos), but he’s trying.
[2] slowing spread means more time to develop and distribute treatments (and perhaps an eventual vaccine), improve existing treatment protocols, and spread out the stress on the health care system over a longer period of time.
PenAndKey
@Cheryl Rofer: your posts are great and informative, and in a better world I’d hope to see it implemented, but let’s be realistic here. You know perfectly well that nothing you suggested is actually going to happen given the idiots we have in charge right now. They wouldn’t know standard operating procedure if it kicked them in the ass.
Felanius Kootea
Hahahaha – to the idea that this administration would actually listen to and act on constructive, useful advice. Kudos for laying out clearly what they should do. Now let’s watch our president lead with his gut.
Another Scott
Excellent, Cheryl. Thanks.
Also, as has been mentioned here in earlier threads, there are additional fiscal things that should be done.
CalculatedRisk:
Cheers,
Scott.
ziggy
@Butch: Yes, even the public face should be professionals, not politicians. People who know what they are talking about, and can be believed, and preferably not worried about keeping their jobs or getting re-elected.
Wish I had more time to dive into this, but got to get to work while I still can!
Felanius Kootea
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]:
We use LiquidPlanner to manage our NIH grants. Not sure if that’s helpful for you.
Barbara
I read this morning what the state of New York and NYC are doing with the first cases of Covid-19, and would make just two points: first, the federal response has been shockingly incompetent, and second, states are acting on their own initiative to the extent that they can, but CDC has tied their hands. Article.
Ella in New Mexico
@PenAndKey:
I actually think in regards to the above it’s a bit better than you describe, particularly because there are still dedicated public health professionals at the state, national and local level, trying to make things work the way they’re supposed to. This kind of stuff NEVER goes smoothly at first, believe me. I worked in ICU during both the H1N1 and the Ebola outbreaks so I can vouch for the fact that even with decent people in the White House things are clunky whenever something really different knocks at our doors.
I will say that except for the fact that there are probably going to be massive local shortages of appropriately equipped ICU/reverse airflow beds and ventilators in all but the biggest hospitals, we do a much much better job of using proper triage and isolation protocols now, after Ebola. We have much better personal protective equipment on hand now, too.
I also think Pence may actually be listening to his experts far, far better than Trump would ever have done–at least right now, until Trump has a fucking hissy fit of rage at some MD/Ph.D who dared contradict his idiocy and demands a head.
We’ll just have wait and see if Pence can keep Crazy Donald distracted by giving him towels to fold or paper cups to count…
Bill Arnold
@Leto:
In my limited experience, actual public health people tend to not be totally blinded by ideology.
Stooleo
Covid19 is Trump’s kryptonite: can’t be fired, can’t be sued, can’t be bullied with mean tweets. This is all he knows how to do and he will invariably screw it up massively. It’s already happening.
Jeff
From Donald: tl;dr.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Bill Arnold: Actual public health people rely on budgets approved by ideologues.
NotMax
Also, as regards supply chains and airlines, passenger flights have been scaled back. Not sure if anything along the same line is impacting cargo flights yet. Plus planes essentially sitting idle can be rather quickly reconfigured for cargo carriage. Granted it is with planes initially designed to do so but switching from passenger accommodation to cargo (and back again) is done nightly here for inter-island service.
As the vast bulk of goods is sent on container ships, that’s where to look for real disruption, especially if it comes to the point that container ships are being turned away at destination ports. Monitoring and testing of both ship crews and dockyard workers will need priority.
Cheryl from Maryland
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]: I did museum exhibition development for the Smithsonian Institution. Project was overwhelming overkill as so much work was in general blocks rather than specific days/weeks, as well different areas such as fundraising, exhibition booking, scriptwriting, etc. would happen simultaneously with only key movement confluences. So I used Tom’s Planner (there’s a website but i can’t easily access it here) which used color blocks, easy key points and allowed me to customize just about anything to suit our in-house terminology. It has a free version so you can give it a trial spin; I found it intuitive and super easy to manipulate.
Mike J
For the one kit question, UW announced yesterday they have a new test of their own. Everyone seems to have Not Invented Here Syndrome. This is something new and shiny and everyone who comes up with a new test can issue press releases and mention it in future grant writing.
Meanwhile, South Korea is testing 10-15,000 per day with a 6 hour turnaround (and they also have a new test in the pipeline that is supposed to have results in 20 minutes,)
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Cheryl from Maryland: Thanks! I’ll give it a look!
opiejeanne
My youngest works for Alaska Marine Lines in Seattle, and if they don’t go to work, Alaska will starve. They run barges (towed by tugboats) up the coast to Alaska with food and other essentials. Some supllies are flown into Alaska, but not enough.
They had to send a worker home yesterday who came in wearing a mask and coughing like crazy, AFTER HR put out a notice for anyone who is sick to stay home.
Another Scott
@NotMax:
CR – Fed Beige Book as of February 24:
Presumably the impact will continue to grow, but continue to be uneven for a while.
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@Stooleo: He will blame Obama. He already has, although people have only a dim idea of what he is referring to when he says that Obama’s burdensome regulations have made it impossible for the FDA to do better. They think he means a proposal that was never actually implemented.
opiejeanne
@Mike J: I know that California was frustrated because the CDC wouldn’t allow tests to be analyzed at Berkeley, which has the facility, but for the longest time, the CDC wasn’t allowing testing of anyone who hadn’t been to China.
joel hanes
@Cheryl Rofer:
I’m enjoying seeing your tweets retweeted on @hilzoy.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Butch:
Remember to take pics and submit them to “On the Road”.
PenAndKey
@Ella in New Mexico: My biggest hope is that Pence and Trump are effectively sidelined, where they can think they’re in charge but where they’re little more than figureheads while the professionals get to work actually running the show. When it comes to disaster response management all I can do as a civilian is hope that our institutions are strong enough to whether incompetency at the top. Articles like this provide a good glimpse for what actual competent leadership should look like, and it gives some good talking points to take to our representatives and anyone else we can reach out to.
PenAndKey
This is actually something I’ve been curious about. From the moment I first heard that the “CDC wasn’t allowing testing” I’ve been wondering… how? Under what authority do they have where they can ban state officials from testing people in the state?
L85NJGT
@Leto:
That first presser, where he soiled himself in real time, that was the moment when the polity made up its collective mind on one Donald J. Trump.
The CiC is a germaphobe. He’s not hearing action items, or the choices and trade offs that need to be made, he’s internalizing and personalizing it all.
Not locking himself in a clean room and pissing in glass milk bottles is a really low threshold.
NotMax
@Another Scott
Yeah, Apple has already reported shortages of iPhones and parts along with associated delays and spot shutdowns in repair service availability at their stores.
Those, despite the hype, are hardly essential goods, nothing approaching the importance of foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals.
Raven Onthill
Do you have any hope that any of this will be done?
At this point all the best work is being done at the state level, and the states (1) don’t mostly have the money and (2) lack the authority to take important actions at the Federal level.
It appears the University of Washington has developed a test and will be making available at the state level.
joel hanes
@PenAndKey:
I suspect that the initial policy was motivated by these considerations:
— early on, they had test kits sufficient to test only a couple thousand individuals, tops
— then it turned out that those initial test kits had a high false-positive rate, which would have provoked retesting, using even more of the critically-needed test kits.
So far, I’m resisting the idea that a political appointee at the head of DHS told the CDC to minimize the bad news by not testing widely.
Xavier
Strange to say this, but Walmart could be an important resource. I expect to use grocery pickup if things get to where I don’t want to be in public places.
SiubhanDuinne
@Ella in New Mexico:
But they apparently can’t stop him from going on Hannity and spewing nonsense. And, most unfortunately, CNN and MSNBC have both played that clip ad nauseum this morning — yes, in an “isn’t-it-terrible-the-stupid-lies-this-person-is-spreading” way, but the message still gets amplified. Trump is criminally irresponsible.
Roger Moore
@NotMax:
I am so stealing that line.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Xavier: Yup. The groceries here that have pickup charge for it, and Target doesn’t do groceries in their drive-up program. BJ’s Warehouse has a drive-up that I need to look into. I have no idea about Costco, as I’ve never been able to stand the crowds there.
Roger Moore
It isn’t going to happen here, but IMO this is an example of the kind of thing the British Shadow Cabinet system does well. If the governing party is incompetent, the opposition is there showing people how stuff ought to be done. Of course if we wanted to do something like that, we’d have to nominate our next presidential candidate immediately after the election so they’d have a chance to put a shadow cabinet together.
Barbara
@joel hanes: I give no such quarter. CDC insisted on devising its own test, only to find out that its “three validation” process resulted in (as you said) a high number of false positives because the third control could not be run correctly by many labs. They had choices: run two validations (the third was more than any other test requires); use tests approved by WHO; let other parties create their own tests (as many were doing). Their initial action was to reduce testing, not increase the availability of tests through those actions, even if, at the same time, they worked to increase the availability of the gold standard they wanted to use. They knowingly undertested. They are supposed to be infectious disease specialists. They understood that they were almost certainly understating the prevalence in the US, based on all evidence they had from China.
Another Scott
@SiubhanDuinne: Yup. They should know better. Everyone should take LOLGOP’s mantra to heart:
Cheers,
Scott.
Ella in New Mexico
@PenAndKey:
They’re a bit bruised and battered, but they’re still there.
Which I strongly believe will not be the case if Trump wins another term.
Yutsano
@NotMax:
Good question. I have a friend who’s a cargo pilot. I’ll reach out to him and see if he’s seen a decrease in traffic. Will try to remember to report back to y’all. It’s a REALLY busy filing season this year.
Villago Delenda Est
Assuming any competence among these assholes is making a very poor assumption.
Marcopolo
@joel hanes: The initial policy was informed by the message the Trump administration was putting out: we are keeping everyone infected out so you are safe.
That meant pouring a majority of resources into shutting down travel & testing folks at point of entry.
Everyone else (mostly) takes their lead from this. A more balance approach that also worked to increase state & local readiness & to develop strategies for dealing with community spread would have meant we wouldn’t be so far behind now.
I have no idea why folks at the CDC felt like they needed to develop their own testing protocol when the WHO had already developed a test or why we didn’t just copy what S. Korea was doing or start purchasing tests the were manufacturing starting several weeks ago. Apparently they have been producing over 100,000/day since mid-Feb.
Cheryl Rofer
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]:
I did most of my management of big projects back when there were only a few choices, so I can’t be much of a help here. My choice would always be something with more capability than I immediately need, because I’d keep finding things to add in.
Cheryl Rofer
@Bill Arnold: I agree that individual actions are important. There’s a great deal of detail that can be filled in under the headings and thought I wrote out.
Cheryl Rofer
@Another Scott: Thanks. I agree that a fiscal subgroup should probably be added in.
SiubhanDuinne
@Another Scott:
QFT
Ksmiami
@Cervantes: This administration is a joke- better to advise blue state governors
Marcopolo
In terms of response right now I think what we are seeing is the larger Blue states with robust state health agencies are taking the lead in starting to confront the community spread issue. As a result we are going to see a lot more infected folks showing up in those states just because they have the infrastructure to do more comprehensive testing.
I’ll be interested to see if there winds up being political spin over “wow, all the infected people are in these blue states.”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@NotMax:
Just a guess, you’re not around folk under 40 very often.
Ella in New Mexico
@SiubhanDuinne:
I’m not so sure we want to muzzle him. It’s apparently working in our favor. Even his supporters say he’s full of shit.
https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-Poll-Memo-And-Results-3-20.pdf
Cheryl Rofer
Thanks, everyone, for calming down a bit while I was out cleaning up the flowerbeds and keeping the kitties company.
I’ll amplify, in particular, one of the good points that’s been made: states and localities are beginning to step into the breach. Things would go better with competent federal management, but we have something we can do to get through this. And perhaps the best practices at the local level can filter up.
RedDirtGirl
I’ve been tasked by my boss to compile a COVID fact sheet to send to our employees. Not doing much for my already low spirits (see: Warren)
ETA: On the bright side, my room mate and I are hosting a friend’s dog for the next 10 days, so I have that to look forward to.
Villago Delenda Est
While this is sound theoretical advice, not even Master Yoda would gainsay anyone who says this is impossible.
Martin
This is a fucking catastrophe.
Two things I posted yesterday which I’ll repeat, and one new one:
These are all published papers.
C Stars
I appreciate CA gov. Newsom’s declaration of emergency and decision not to let the Grand Princess cruise ship doc until all onboard have been tested. There were still hundreds of folks who disembarked from the infected ship and went their own ways throughout SF, CA, and the US (I read an article about one couple who traveled back to Pennsylvania after the cruise). But Newsom is acting, at least, like he has a plan to keep it as isolated as possible.
Meanwhile, here in the East Bay, I have developed cold symptoms in the last couple of days (unfortunately, just after visiting an elderly, immunocompromised relative on Sunday). I have certainly been around a lot of college-age students from all over the world in the last few weeks, but there were and are of course all kinds of colds, flus, and stomach bugs circulating this season since before the current scare. And the cold seems very settled in my nose, nothing in my lungs yet and no fever. Trying not to panic.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin:
Yeah, there’s a local photography group shoot on Sunday that I was thinking of attending, but the organizer is a Uber/Lyft driver, I’m skipping it(I’ve also shot the locations before).
Duane
@Cheryl Rofer: A big national event is beginning with the NCAA basketball tournaments. Lots of air travel, thousands of people packed into arenas, seems like a great way to spread the virus. The economic benefits for the host cities is huge. The NCAA has a lot of decisions to make.
RedDirtGirl
@C Stars: Shit. I’ll try to not panic with you!
dww44
While this is anecdotal it does document where the administration is and isn’t with regard to travel into the country. MY BIL, who lives and works at a University near Hanoi in Viet Nam, flew back into the country yesterday via his usual route: Vietnamese airline to Seoul and Korean Airlines direct flight to ATL. While his flight arrangements to return had been very much up in the air for the last couple of weeks, eventually they firmed up and he was able to depart on Tuesday (Wednesday in Viet Nam).
When he arrived in ATL yesterday morning, he was first off plane and cleared customs and immigration in record time. There was no single query or concern as to where he was coming into the country from nor any apparent interest in doing so. He was as gobsmacked as were we, since we all thought that screening of passengers on incoming international flights was already in place. As he said, we Americans deserve everything we get. This morning he found out his return flight via KAL in early April has already been cancelled since the Viet Namese government has announced that all incoming flights from S Korea will be diverted to a different airport and all passengers will be quarantined for 10 days or so.
Cheryl Rofer
@Duane: Lots of organizations are making big decisions. The American Physical Society got caught as it was becoming obvious that grouping many people together is a bad idea and canceled their annual meeting. Some people actually were at their hotels in Denver or on their way as the decision was made. But it was the right decision.
One of the countries more affected – Japan or South Korea – is holding sports events but telling the spectators to stay home. They provide extensive video coverage instead.
Fleeting Expletive
With a couple of days distance from when I characterized the first Trump meeting of the task force as seeming unreal and staged, I don’t think I was wrong. It really was a staged photo-op of a meeting where he was focused on goosing medical research to produce an antidote, a vaccine, anything in the next week so as to get this monkey off his back before any of it became his fault.
Handwashing, staying out of crowds if you can, and latex gloves when you touch public surfaces seems practical. I wonder, how much the circulation of paper currency spreads the virus hand to hand. I left a pile of blue exam gloves with the poll workers when I voted. They seemed appreciative but a little surprised.
Sloane Ranger
@Marcopolo: It already is. I saw an article at Raw Story last week that RW Twitter is alive with such statements. Also that the Libs are deliberately infecting people to make things look bad for Dump and damage his re-election chances.
Martin
@RedDirtGirl: Yeah, I was tasked with ‘game out every scenario’ which included a full shutdown, or a resistance to shut down (not our call) but half of the staff are quarantined, to ‘what if instructors start dropping dead’. And as usual, I need to show my math. So, if 1 student in a 400 seat lecture hall have it, roughly 4 students will likely have it – or have it on their hands – by the end of the lecture, just on the amount of contact needed for people to get in and out of their seats.
What’s more it survives on surfaces for a day, give or take. So if the next class has 1 student, then roughly 8 will have it on them by the end of class. Some days we have 13 classes go through a lecture hall in a day. If each one had one student with it, the last class would probably spread it to roughly 45 students.
And it’s only 10 hours between our last class and the first the next day, so we don’t reset to +4, we reset to +20 and we end the day around +65. Assuming a 4 day incubation, if we started this on Monday, by the Friday meeting of the class, at least half the class would contract it.
So yeah, hard to keep spirits up when that’s your headspace.
Bill Arnold
@Villago Delenda Est:
Cough.
While near him (DJT). And if that doesn’t work, cough again. :-)
PsiFighter37
My company is going to split its workforce in the upcoming days – will be interesting to see how this goes. The color I have gotten is that this could last months…
Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: Almost all technical conferences and tech trade shows are being cancelled.
Formula 1 had already cancelled/postponed the Chinese Grand Prix, and my guess is they’re deliberating either cancelling the season entirely since every race is in a different country including Japan, Italy, etc. or they’ll run the entire season without spectators. Not that hard to mitigate a few hundred employed drivers/engineers that have bosses and have to listen to the bosses. They fly entirely on chartered planes with the equipment, so no mixing with the public, etc.
Bill Arnold
@Martin:
For those who like to read papers (this one is open access):
The neuroinvasive potential of SARS-CoV2 may be at least partially responsible for the respiratory failure of COVID-19 patients. (2020 Feb 27)
pdf
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Some folks here are quickly organizing a mini-conference of talks that would have been given in Denver. So they’ll have something to claim at the end of the year for the work they put in.
Necessity is the mother…
Cheers,
Scott.
Duane
@Martin: Here’s two ideas that might help. Lots of overtime for custodial staff to constantly clean the classrooms and, could you hold outdoor classes? I worked in custodial services at a public university, the situation sounds overwhelming. You’ve probably thought of this already, just trying to help.
Mike in NC
Everything Fat Bastard touches dies. Never forget that. Shit Midas.
japa21
A couple observations from my part-time job.
I work at a local Costco as one of the food demonstrators. Basically, since Saturday, the store has for all intents and purposes been out of the following:
Bottled water
Toilet paper
Paper towels
Hand sanitizer
Disinfectant wipes
They do get shipments in daily, but whatever they get is gone in 2-3 hours top. They are limiting water to 5 cases and the paper goods to 2 packs.
Additionally, people are buying from the meat department, specially chicken and ground turkey, like mad.
Additionally, vendors have been cancelling our demonstrations due to possible disruptions in the supply chain. Not greatly yet, but it is just a matter of time. Somebody did send out a funny tweet which I tried to find but couldn’t which praised all those Costco shoppers who were doing their buying for the apocalypse but were still brave enough to eat all the samples.
jl
@Bill Arnold:
Also, provide enough funding, from state and federal level to speed reporting suspicious symptoms and self-quarantine, That measure alone can substantially reduce the transmission rate. The core of the reproductive number is a ratio: transmission rate per contact per unit time divided by the removal rate of contagious people from the pool of susceptibles. Manipulating either produces the same result.
And a national INTENSE PUBLIC INFORMATION CAMPAIGN with accurate info encouraging people to wash hands, not touch face and keep hydrated, stand a little further from people than usual, and report your own suspicious symptoms to doctor as soon as they occur. (sorry for all caps, but I haven’t emailed Cole for months, so am feeling and ALL CAPS ITCH!)
And, targeted community surveillance in outbreak areas.
All resources needed should be provided for free in a dedicated immediate money and real resource pipeline from the feds. None of this going through insurance nonsense that Pence talked about yesterday.
Get Trump to shut his mouth. I heard on news this morning that people need to go to work even if they feel sick. Not good.
People should alert and cautious and responsible, but not over alarmed (unless Trumpsters let things get out of hand). There are different sorts of epidemics. You don’t need to get the reproduction number below one to turn a hugely socially disruptive epidemic into a very slow moving one that appears to the public as a series of manageable outbreaks. Get it down to 1.5 or 1.3 is enough.
If provided enough resources asap, and with a good public information campaign, state and local health departments can handle this, so far, with tried and true ‘shoe leather’ epidemic control (tracking, quick processing of exposed and cases, public action) the same way they have for other dangerous diseases for over 100 years.
And like Martin, I can provide peer reviewed papers for my more optimistic news.
C Stars
@RedDirtGirl: Thank you! I am not that afraid of having it myself, but self-isolating would be a nightmare for me right now as I run a busy household and have out of the house work obligations coming up. And of course I’m very worried for my relative. Sigh.
All of that said, I don’t think there’s a huge chance that I have it; more likely it’s just a garden-variety cold.
bemused
I don’t know how true stories are that trump is a germophobe but I wouldn’t doubt that. I have to wonder how freaked out he is about the coronavirus no matter how he pretends it’s no big deal in public.
jl
@Martin: “This is a fucking catastrophe.”
I think we have a couple of months. The epidemic in Wuhan percolated along for two months or so before it entered the exponential increase in transmission phase. And that was with a continuous and substantial injection of new cases from the infected animals at the market into human population.
The crucial issue for limiting damage of an epidemic is whether the new strains are more contagious or not. I haven’t seen anything that indicates that they are.
@Martin: Sorry to hear you are buried in planning work. Consider that it has made your attitude overly pessimistic. That might be a good thing for planning, but bad for your psyche.
Another Scott
@bemused: He’s definitely a blood-o-phobe. There are many stories of him reacting in horror about seeing blood.
The best thing that he could do is go to Xanadu for a couple of months, sign bills that are put in front of him, and stay off Twitter.
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@japa21: Why are folk stocking up on bottled water, I could understand that for earthquake* or other natural disaster that would cause problems with the water supply, but not this.
*California bias.
japa21
@Another Scott: We need to get someone on Fox to report that someone got the virus when sending tweets. Technically it could be possible if there was the virus on the device being used.
japa21
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Amazing how many people refuse to drink tap water.
Another Scott
@japa21: Yup. :-(
I saw a clip on the BBC of Greta attending some climate meeting yesterday, and was pleased to see that she brought her own red metal water bottle with her…
Cheers,
Scott.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl:
If it’s on your face, DON’T SCRATCH IT!
jl
The federal response at least the parts that are influenced by Trumpster incompetence has been horrible. We have to hope that state and local health departments can get the job done with the resources they can get.
Knocking an epidemic down to manageable size that looks like a series of small local outbreaks without disastrous economic, social, and health consequences can be done if enough resources made available for next six weeks for two months. The scale of the effort makes a big difference. The disruption and cost of less than one percent of the population self-quarantinging for two weeks (ideally without interruption in their paycheck) and quickly contacting health system is qualitatively different when you have to take measures for the whole population.
Martin
@PsiFighter37: Yeah. Everyone is watching China. They figured out by locking everything down they could contain the spread. It’s not clear how they keep it contained while they go back about their business. Totally different process for that which we’ve yet to really see in action.
Same here – we’re not sure what business as usual will look like.
Kirk Spencer
So I’ll toss in a couple of things – not even anecdotes, just informed observations.
Over the road truck drivers. While there is a lot of no touch automation out there it’s still a tiny piece of the puzzle. Drivers share paper with shipping clerks and (un)loaders not to mention truck stop staffs. And if they start quarantining themselves, you should be aware that there is already a shortage of qualified otr drivers. Large, driving institutional change levels of shortage. It’s a solid pipeline for spread.
Mallard Filmore
@NotMax:
Bah, never mind.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@japa21: I have a RO water filter, so I sort of understand. But if you’re constantly buying bottled water a RO water filter will pay for itself pretty quickly.
Dan B
@Cheryl Rofer: When the first cases were reported in Seattle metro my mind went to our big employers:
Amazon – shipping will have trouble with sick employees and customers afraid their packages are contaminated, correctly if there is no decontamination protocol. And shortages from asia.
Boeing – Already in trouble and with a bean counter recently installed.
Microsoft – already projected to have a flat fiscal year. Located primarily in Redmond and Bellevue that are a few mikes from the epicenter. Perception issues to manage.
Port of Seattle / Tacoma – What happens when a crew member takes ill mid-ocean? Plus restrictions on import goods.
There are more large and small companies with big challenges. Local Chinese restaurants are suffering – hundreds of them. Are the Chamber of Commerce, professional organizations, Unions, etc. coordinating any response besides “Wash your hands”?
There are ten thousand homeless people in the county. The mindset of the powers that be, including the mayor, is clean up the messy camps. This is criminally shortsighted in the face if a looming pandemic. The same is true of the command to stay at home if you are sick. It is blind to the people who will have no home, and perhaos no food, if they miss a couple paychecks. And packing all the poor into warehouses will haunt the nightmares of disease specialists. There us already NIMBY from poorer communities who are being informed that motels for the quarantined, not even the ill, are being set up in their neighborhoods.
Seattle is a very wealthy city but the state prevents equitable taxation so our problems linger and fester. We need practical measures and robust systemic solutions.
Another Scott
GovExec:
Lots-o-links in the story – click over.
Cheers,
Scott.
?BillinGlendaleCA
From USA Today: “Citing a ‘hunch’, Trump breaks with experts on virus death rate”.
We are being lead by morons.
Sister Golden Bear
@C Stars: Here on the Peninsula, I’ve been fighting off a head cold as well. I’m only about 10 minutes away from one of the community-spread cases, so while it’s probably fine, I’m also feeling a bit of anxiety. (Although I’m 55, I assume having both diabetes and sleep apnea raises my risk.)
Could be far worse. My surgeon in Thailand, who did my genital reconstruction surgery, just canceled all surgeries and revisions for the next two months.
It makes sense, but it’s horrible news for those affected, especially since he’s usually booked out a year in advance. Not just having to continue living with body dysphoria for an unforeseen amount of time, but also because for most people it’s a financial stretch to do it (some folks save up for years) so lost airfare could be really problematic. Not to mention arranging to have take two months off can be difficult to reschedule. My heart really goes out to them.
jl
@Martin: The effectiveness of a unit of prevention measures operating on spread (various reproductive numbers used to analyze control though manipulating rate of transmission) increases almost exponentially as prevalence of infection goes down.
There will be a qualitative difference in disruptiveness of effective control measures in exponential-like increase in transmission phase, and in ‘percolating’ phase of epidemic.
If you sit there and and watch a pile of smoldering oily rags in the corner of the garage explode into flames, qualitatively different measures will be needed to control the situation, than if you intervened earlier. Trumpsters are effectively sitting and watching and hoping nothing happens.
Epidemic dynamics and control is a very nonlinear dynamic system, and its behavior can be very counterintutive.
Martin
@jl: We don’t have a couple of months.
First case in Wuhan was 12/12. First fatality was 1/9. They locked down travel on 1/22 and cancelled all national Lunar New Year events on 1/23. China started to see signs of containment on 2/10. That’s 5 weeks from first case to large scale containment efforts and 8 weeks until containment measures start working.
First case in the US was reported on 1/21. We’re about to hit week 6 without even widespread testing. China hit 44,000 cases in 5 weeks. Chinese scientists estimate that if they had locked down 5 days later, they would have peaked 3x higher.
We have missed our easy containment window. We are missing our difficult containment window.
We do not have 6 weeks. We certainly don’t have a couple of months – this has only been a thing for a couple of months.
Barbara
@?BillinGlendaleCA: And yet, if you look at our own death rate it’s like 10%, dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. Obviously, this would not be accurate, but the point is citing any rate as “the” rate at this point is inaccurate. A true wildcard here is that if you get really sick, your own chances will likely depend on access to sophisticated medical care. So I would expect the death rate to vary a lot between locations, certainly across borders, but maybe even within a single country.
Betty
Well said, Cheryl. But it does look like the states will have. to take much of the responsibility to get things organized.
trollhattan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Wondered the same and decided folks are hardwired to stockpile the same stuff no matter what the untoward event might be.
Republicans probably just order a tax cut.
Another Scott
@?BillinGlendaleCA: He’s trying to convince people that it’s not bad so that it doesn’t reflect badly on him.
“You just tell them and they believe it. They just do.”
It’s propaganda and gaslighting. He knows exactly what he’s doing.
Grr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Butch
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I live in the Upper Peninsula. At least the climate will be familiar.
trollhattan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I just needed an undercounter charcoal filter, which makes the tap water here perfectly cromulent (taste and odor from organics and the chlorine). Bottled water is for camping trips or the kind with bubbles in it.
Martin
@jl: Exactly. If you feel compelled to yell fire, you missed your timing by a week or more.
That’s how epidemics work – they outrun the response by getting a foothold before anyone thinks a response is needed. It feels like constant over-reacting because in other scenarios it would be.
You only stop this by aggressive prevention. We are very much a ‘if it aint broke, don’t fix it’ society.
jl
@Martin: We probably need to trade some links to the published papers to settle this. I’ve seen several publications with different timelines than you gave. There is a lot of evidence that the prevalence of the disease is far higher than official statistics indicate, and I’ve seen several publications with good evidence the epidemic started in late November.
There is some dispute about this from the genetic phylogeny, I admit that. But starting from mid December is just incorrect, IMHO. But I’ll go check the papers I’ve seen once more time. Though cannot get back on this in this thread.
Edit: you are also neglecting the role of injection of very steady stream of animal to human transmission that went on into the exponential phase of the epidemic. That played a large role, at least in the analyses I’ve seen.
trollhattan
@Another Scott:
Trump really wishes the election were next week and not in November. He’d call a snap election if he could. “Me and Bernie, we’ll fight.”
Lots can and will happen across eight months. I try to not dwell on what that means but with two down quarters in the bag we could be in an official recession by then.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Barbara: Trump’s ‘hunch’ is the death rate is lower than 1% not 3.4% that the WHO has reported.
We are screwed.
Mallard Filmore
@Marcopolo:
Yeah, those states with sanctuary cities.
Subsole
@NotMax:
I hear what you are saying, but as a counterpoint, it can be useful for people to read this. Some folks (like me) are ignorant of how this stuff normally gets handled. Having it laid out in plain English is helpful. And thank you Ms. Rofer for laying it out.
That said, yeah, your point is, well, on-point: expecting anything but a stumbledicked clownshoes failparade of unending fuck-uppery from this crew is…I’unno…what’s on the shelf above naive?
I just don’t think that was Ms. Rofer’s aim, is all I’m saying.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@trollhattan: Tax cuts cure the clap, everyone knows that.
@Another Scott:
@trollhattan:
Since the general election isn’t until November, this seems quite shortsighted, never mind we’re talking Trump here.
Again, we’re being lead by morons.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mallard Filmore: Tax cuts and Wall will solve the problem.
Subsole
@Felanius Kootea:
Yeah. His gut. Sure.
If only.
Martin
@jl: There is also evidence the first cases in the US predate 1/21. In both cases, there was inadequate testing and communication.
And we have wild disagreement on the number of cases. Johns Hopkins says 177 in the US. The CDC says 99. That’s not evidence of one position or the other, it’s evidence that we are not taking this seriously, that our not knowing, or refusing to know, is part of the contribution to the outbreak, not part of the containment.
bemused
@Another Scott:
I read that he glares at people coughing around him and washes his hands a lot. I bet he panics bigly if coronavirus hits anyone in the WH.
Bill
@Cheryl Rofer: “I have spoken.” And thank you for doing so. I really appreciate your technical posts, being a fellow scientist.
Martin
Honestly, we need a Secret Service agent to give it to Trump if we stand a chance here. I trust the heaven and earth that would be moved to treat him would ensure a recovery, but this idiot needs to touch the fucking stove.
Bill
@catclub:
“@Cervantes: I disagree. Documentation matters.”
It’s true, it’s the only way to fix things, even if after the disaster. Thanks for your sanity check.
-Bill
JPL
If the stores have supplies next week, I’ll stock up. Besides the two cases in GA which are probably close to where I live, students returning from Italy weren’t tested. If the symptoms are mild, how would we even know if it is spreading.
trollhattan
@Martin:
Do you know if CDC has backed off the restrictions they placed on the circumstances under which their test kits can be administered? I heard a report last weekend that it’s not easy to use them for screening due to the rules they have placed on them.
It could be partly due to the limited supply. I’ve not heard how many kits are now in circulation.
I could do 90% of my work from home and hope the employer comes around to telecommute for everybody non-essential. I also want my work-issue pony.
C Stars
@Sister Golden Bear: It’s reassuring just to hear from another person who has a probably-harmless-head cold (PHHers, unite!) Yes, the disruptions this will cause will be heartbreaking. I can only imagine what it would be like to have been saving up and anticipating GRS surgery for years or decades, and then have it called off or indefinitely postponed because of this. I am very much hoping that the airlines will have generous reimbursement policies but god, who knows.
Well, in any case, please take care of yourself. I guess since stress has deleterious effects, now is the time to treat ourselves really well!!
trollhattan
@JPL:
I shopped Costco yesterday afternoon and they seemed to have most everything. Not crowded and quite a few shoppers were sporting gloves.
Roger Moore
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Because people are saying to stock up. I think a lot of the people talking about planning for COVID-19 are starting from generic disaster planning, and that always tells you to have a lot of food and water stockpiled.
Nelle
I’m committing the sin of jumping in without reading comments, but I’m toilet training a two year old and trying to get her to nap. The one year old and Grandpa are conked out.
I’m working on a much more local level, as in, who lives around me and how can we help each other. I’m making a list of names and contact info for those around me to share with everyone, particularly to identify those in risk categories and those living alone. I know a few, but we haven’t even lived here a year. Whether the virus hits here or not, this is a way we can be aware of each other, particularly if there are needs.
I have canned and dry goods for month, all things we are willing to eat,but also can donate to food pantries or share with the unprepared. Paper goods, etc. We used to live three hours by small plane (two mountain ranges, the Yukon Flats, and the Arctic Coastal Plain) from the grocery store or a doc. So stocking up, planning and prep, and then trusting yourself to do your best when things happen, is familiar.
Basically, start really local, prepare, and don’t listen to idiots.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin:
I think you and jl are in agreement on that.
Jeffro
@Cervantes: co-signed
total waste of time
Bill Arnold
@jl:
Thank you for saying this.
It is really really important to slow spread even in the very early stages of an epidemic, or before if possible.
Aleta
@Another Scott: Also, this site was set up by a physicist for participants who want to record and share the talks they had planned to give.
It seems open to everyone; I watched one last night.
Subsole
@Bill Arnold:
Cool. Thanks for posting this.
J R in WV
@NotMax:
People are hoarding toilet paper!?!!! My favorite brand was completely sold out at the giant Kroger’s where I normally shop. But they had plenty of bourbon in their tiny new spirits shop, so it was all good!!
laura
I’m going to take every opportunity to harp on a massive robust unemployment insurance program to both prop up demand and to keep people in as secure a financial state as possible. Sick people, out of a job, out on the street is my worst fear. Their desperation, should that occur, with trump and pence in charge haunts my dreams.
Roger Moore
@J R in WV:
It’s a sensible thing to hoard. It has a long shelf-life, and you know you’re going to use it eventually.
Another Scott
@bemused:
Presumably his people are constantly refreshing pages like these:
https://wtop.com/local/2020/03/coronavirus-test-results-in-dc-maryland-and-virginia/
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
JPL
@Roger Moore: haha Toilet Paper and Kleenex is the only thing I stocked up on.
Bill Arnold
@Subsole:
TBH I’m finding that paper rather disturbing. I haven’t looked for comment on/criticism of it yet.
Another Scott
@Aleta: Thanks for the pointer.
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@Bill Arnold: Based on just me extrapolating principles from facts, it seems that a worst case scenario is a very fast jump in the number of cases that require intensive and acute medical intervention, (ventilators, ICU) which could overwhelm our capacity to provide those services. So even if most people are not really at high risk from dying or even becoming acutely ill, there is a minority whose life basically rests in the hands of the majority being willing to self-quarantine or take other measures to isolate themselves.
It is a tall order under any circumstance for people who are only lightly ill to stay home from work or school to protect those who are at higher risk. Not testing people means they either don’t know that they should stay home or gives them a fairly ironclad excuse for ignoring warnings (they didn’t really know). As I said above, it’s hard for me to comprehend how inept the CDC has been.
bemused
@JPL:
On Sunday went to Target store to get paper towels/toilet paper and the shelves were almost bare. I can’t imagine this is normal so guess people are stocking up.
C Stars
@Roger Moore: There was NO TOILET PAPER at the Costco I go to yesterday. Also no oatmeal, soy or almond milk (which was the whole reason I went there!!), no olive oil and no tofu. Basically, my costco shopping list. But yes, people were still happily partaking of the samples. At least I got my gas tank filled…
ETA wow I just realized what a bay area shopping list that is…
Ella in New Mexico
@Martin: WOW!! Interesting and very important stuff there. Thanks!
PenAndKey
@JPL: Toilet paper, paper towels, soap & shampoo, toothpaste, tampons, basic cleaning supplies, basic medications like pain killers and antacids, canned stocks and frozen veggies, pasta and rice, bulk meat in the freezer and boxes of shelf-stable tofu. Those are the staples I always try to have two or three months supply of on hand at any given time and right about now I’m glad I do. It’s a habit my parents taught me and right about now I’m glad they did. Short of losing our power and utilities we are okay for any standard disruption.
Zzyzx
My (Seattle suburb) company just put us on a work from home restriction for the next two weeks. While I can survive it, what happens to the Starbucks and the mom and pop salad bar place and everything else in the lobby of our building?
chris
@Barbara:
Have a look at CDC head Robert R Redfield. Appointed by the shitgibbon of course.
Gravenstone
@japa21:
Without first having it repackaged in plastic, with someone’s label on it.
gwangung
@chris: I;m betting on contradictory, poorly communicated and politically expedient directives.
LuciaMia
Me three.
NotMax
@Subsole
No objection of any sort to the original post. What I was taking exception to was her “pity party” comment, which I found both uncalled for and a shot at shutting down robust conversation. Most of us are of a more generalist bent and approach matters beyond a strictly clinical analysis.
@BillinGlendaleCA
Realize it was jocular but handy, sure. Convenient? Most probably. Essential? Nope.
Zzyzx
And I don’t understand why all tech companies have ordered their employees to WFH but this weekend’s Sounders game that will draw 40-50,000 is just going to happen like normal.
Another Scott
GovExec – We can still avoid the worst case scenario:
A good read.
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
@Gravenstone:
To be fair, a lot of tap water is undrinkable even when it’s technically safe. Taste and odor guidelines for the most part are just that, while parameters for health are enforceable. And private wells–you’re on your own there.
Also, too, folk’s palates are different. I generally dislike well water and a lot of people find it just fine.
japa21
@Roger Moore: Specially since Sears stopped sending out catalogues.
PST
Well, the Washington Post now has a story about a low-level coronavirus infection in a dog. Too soon to panic, it says, and maybe a mistake. Funny, but just this morning as I was enjoying a beautiful sunrise walk with my dog, I thought about how often I lick my fingers in order to get a fresh poop bag to open up.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@?BillinGlendaleCA: People are advised to stock up on water because natural disasters can still happen while the supply chains are disrupted from quarantines. I picked up an extra four gallons of distilled water for our CPAPs yesterday and checked my other hurricane kit supplies.
I understand that some of the independent churches are advising their members to prepare as if for a siege, presumably because of the one in South Korea that’s been getting all the bad press.
PenAndKey
They don’t get paid. let’s not sugar coat it. The employees at places like that are going to get hosed and they’re largely on their own. It’s also why I think anything short of mandatory testing isn’t going to do squat for containment. Too many people know that a positive result is just going to mean they can’t make their mortgage or rent to risk volunteering for testing.
germy
Immanentize
Waddya all think? Should my son and I go on the cruise we booked starting Thursday?
NotMax
@Yutsano
Would be very interested in any from the horse’s mouth info he might relate.
PenAndKey
@Immanentize: Do they have any other critical appointments within the next month? If so, no.Though, as a microbiologist, I get squicky at the idea of a cruise ship even at the best of times.
Zzyzx
@PenAndKey: It’s worse than that.
It’s not that they might go in sick, it’s that with companies that exist to largely serve the occupants of an office building, what happens if the entire office decides to not show up for 2-3 weeks?
How many of the companies survive that?
J R in WV
@Yutsano:
Hell, we have a CPA firm do our taxes, have had for years now. They prefer to file for extensions for most of their clients.
Now that seems almost mandatory, who knows, the world could end before your next returns are sent in? Let the survivors deal with it and enjoy not stressing out about your taxes!!
//s
ETA… who knew, the <code> doesn’t work anymore!!! I fixed that now.
Immanentize
@PenAndKey: That’s a good marker — no doctors for a month. Pence is supposedly talking to the cruise lines directors Saturday in Miami. So maybe an industry bailout is on plan which means I could get my money back.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: DO NOT GO.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: ?
NotMax
@Immanentize
Tough call to make at this point. For whatever it is (or is not) worth, if it was me I’d go, and take sensible precautions to limit proximity to fellow passengers.
Immanentize
@NotMax: We decided that Monday would be go/no go decision day. Unless things change. And this ship off the California coast is likely to change things.
I have, coincidentally, my own Dr. check-up today in an hour. I’ll ask him. He is not a panic minded fellow at all.
Ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I normally take the Metro to get to the VA, as it’s off the 405 at Wilshire, and that’s a bit away from me. But now? Driving seems like a good idea.
Barbara
@Immanentize: I wouldn’t go specifically because your son is recuperating from major surgery. I know that it was months ago, but it was a big deal and it’s hard to know whether it had some impact on his immune system. I would, at the very least, talk to the doctors who are familiar with his care and condition
FYI, I don’t mean to sound ultra-cautious. I might end up going, but I would be careful. Also, it’s probably important to understand that cruising populations are older than average, but especially on some lines like Holland America and Princess, which seems to be cursed.
Yutsano
@Immanentize: DOO EET!!!
West of the Rockies
So, I’m thinking of what game to pull out for my Thursday night game group… I hear Pandemic is fun!
Immanentize
@Barbara: That’s a prudent course too. Thanks! I’ll put in a call to his Onc Doc
NotMax
@West of the Rockies
Have a box of Paranoia hanging about?
(For the uninitiated, an actual tabletop role-playing game.)
Immanentize
@NotMax: Pandemic
JPL
@Immanentize: No .. Plead with Viking to refund your money and I gotta say you have a good story to tell
Maybe good is not the right word.
trollhattan
@Immanentize:
Did you get a REALLY GOOD deal? As in they give you a trip and a hundred bucks?
Nope. I would not.
Ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Same reason that people drink bottled water at home. They think what comes out of the tap is contaminated – Flint ring a bell? Some places in the US the water is bad. In CA it’s rather good and that is because we have a working state government, and good supplies.
joel hanes
@C Stars:
the cold seems very settled in my nose
My long-standing allergies are telling me that northern California is having an unusually early and unusually severe pollen allergy season — no doubt due to the untimely warm weather and the missing month of rain.
I hope that your nasal distress is that.
Try loratidine (Claritin) as a first response to see if that helps.
Immanentize
@trollhattan: They will give me a voucher for a future trip(s). But no refund offer yet.
JPL
@Immanentize: I’d call again especially since your son has a doctor’s appt. This was suppose to be a special trip for both of you and now unfortunately it’s not. Go for a refund and ten percent off a future trip.
NotMax
@Immanentize
Is the voucher transferable? If so you might be able to recoup a percentage of your outlay by selling it after the ruckus abates.
J R in WV
@Immanentize:
I would not. By next Thursday they might not even let you off the airplane at your destination.
In any case, look at the downside, even if not personally infected, trapped upon that ship for a minimum of 2 weeks quarantine, and if infected, taken to an emergency hospital set up in a gym.
Yowsa, that’s a great vacation!
I’m a little ‘noid, so take that into account… I view that as a survival trait myself, tho.
Immanentize
@West of the Rockies: Pandemic Legacy is a GREAT game, but it can take a long time. I really recommend at least four players or, as the outbreaks come faster, it is hard with a tram of three to keep up.
The original Pandemic is fun, but not so engrossing (or well designed) as Pandemic Legacy.
JPL
My son is at costco and they have plenty of water but no kidney beans. huh
Immanentize
I really appreciate all your advice! Off to the Doc.
Ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
It is ignorant and very short sighted. But we have a narcissistic, infant level maturity, moron in dementia as president. There should be no expectation that he can do or say anything positive, that is so far beyond his ability, or that of anyone he’s hired.
germy
I have to rush off to the store to stockpile a bunch of stuff before the hoarders show up.
Ruckus
@bemused:
There are 2 Targets within 3-4 miles of me and one always looks about at half inventory while the other, which is bigger, looks completely stocked. Guess which one is in the better neighborhood?
Martin
So, here’s why I am taking the attitude I am. I’m a data guy. And in the absence of data, you have to make assumptions. And if the data is deliberately missing, that affects the assumptions.
Two data points we have – 177 infection on about 500 tests. ⅓ of tests come back positive. Testing is somewhat self-selective, but not entirely. One way to interpret 177 infections is to assume if we tested all 300 million americans, we’d still only have 177 infections. Another way is to assume if we tested all 300 million americans, ⅓ would come back positive and we’d have 100 million cases. Both are clearly wrong, but those are our bounds. Testing seems to be surfacing severe cases, which are about 20% of cases. So, good estimate is to multiply our 177 by 5. Let’s call it 1000. It also takes about as long for people to show symptoms as it takes for the cases to double. So we have another 1000 that aren’t yet showing symptoms. We also have reports from all over that patients suspected of having it aren’t being tested because they aren’t in the protocol (which is not largely lifted in most states) or because there is no test available. How many people is that? Can’t say. My guess is another multiplier of at least 5 to around 10,000 cases. A lot of those are in Kings county, but they’re also in CA, in NYC, on a cruise ship off of SF, etc.
Pence said over a million tests would be administered by the end of the week. That was such transparent bullshit, I don’t even know where to start on it. We don’t have the lab capacity for a million tests a week. There was no way they would get that many in circulation that fast, and there’s still no infrastructure set up for testing – we’re still at ‘go to the ER’ stage. Witness S Korea’s drive-through testing for what a serious effort resembles. We still don’t even have basic temperature monitoring in place, which is trivial.
KIngs county told all workers in the county to work from home. That’s a pretty good start. But they need more structural moves to be put in place, and quickly. Every week you wait, your problem doubles in size. If it was hard to make the last decision causing you to delay, the next one will be twice as hard, and the one after that 4x as hard. That trend reverses if you’re in front of it, and it accelerates if you’re behind it. This is a loan with 100% interest that compounds every week. You can’t just be making the minimum payments.
With better and reliable information on tests administered, cases, tests available, test capacity, and non-medical efforts to reduce transmission rate such as closing social venues, and the like, we can start to dial back our concerns, but until that happens, you have to assume it’s much worse than you’re being told, because by the time you figure out the truth, the problem will be many multiples larger.
WaterGirl
@germy:
LongHairedWeirdo
“Experience in project management… sigh.” See, this is one of the crushing things that makes me wonder how the ever living hell the GOP can support Trump.
I don’t know *how* to run a public health task force. I have no idea if you missed something that was stone cold obvious. (No offense intended – I simply don’t know your background, though perhaps I should.) But I could see that you had, at the very least, a skeleton of a competent plan.
In short, I saw that *you* were more qualified than the Trump administration, and I was also nearly certain that if you were picked to head it up, you’d refuse, saying “There are thousands of people better qualified than I!” (I’m inferring that, because you only touted experience in project management, you see?) And they can’t even put together *that* much of a plan, nor realize they need someone with far more competence to head things up. Nor, apparently, can they realize how much damage they can do, by failing to do so.
It’s this sort of stuff that boggles my mind that people think that it’s okay for Trump to be in charge.
C Stars
@joel hanes: Thank you, that’s good advice. My eyes are extremely itchy (though not running yet) and I am sneezing quite a bit, so it is definitely starting to feel like allergies. We have an olive tree behind our house that these sweet little yellow striped finches have taken up residence in lately. I don’t know much about olive trees but there are these sprigs of bud-like growths that the finches have been going crazy over for the last week (I can see them doing it when I’m working from home, just a few feet from my office window!) and I’m wondering if that’s what’s doing it.
Martin
The feds are still not coordinated, and still not dealing with the necessary urgency.
Letter posted today.
brantl
@Cervantes: We have a winner!
brantl
@Cheryl Rofer: Same back at you. Writing a treatise on how to advise a gorilla to do ballet would be more useful than this.
WaterGirl
@brantl: So people who have good ideas should STFU?
In what world does that make sense?
Bill Arnold
@Barbara:
Yes, good points: reducing the infection rate in an epidemic means spreading out the stress on the health care system over a longer period of time, and reducing the probability that the stress will be past the breaking point/capacity of the healthcare system.
JaySinWA
From my comment in Dave’s thread:
Just got an email from CMS indicating coverage under Medicare Part B and stating that such coverage is normally free. FWIW.
They link to the web page here: https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/coronavirus-test
JaySinWA
repeating here:
From the Seattle TImes;
No deductibles, co-pays for coronavirus visits, tests
Washington state’s insurance commissioner issued an emergency order Thursday directing all health insurance carriers, through May 4, to provide health care provider visits and novel coronavirus testing without co-payments and deductible payments to enrollees who meet criteria for testing.
Questions about coronavirus testing and treatment costs have stirred some concern about people without insurance, as well as insured people without savings. People anxious about costs may delay care and thereby contribute to the spread of the virus, public health experts have said.
—Daniel Beekman and Joseph O’Sullivan
Bill Arnold
@brantl:
Respectfully, you’re not thinking clearly about epidemics.
See e.g. jl at 92 ( @jl: )
In the early stages, little improvements can make a big difference, and a chance of little improvements can mean a chance of making a big difference. Exponential spread amplifies the effect of early measures, both good and bad. Slowing spread can e.g. decrease the peak stress on the health care system to below its breaking point. And state and local governments can and will be mostly more competent than the DJT administration.
(I hope you read the rest of the thread.)
Yutsano
@JaySinWA: Cue the Tim Eyman lawsuit in 5…
Matt McIrvin
What was not clear before, but recent news does make clear, is that it IS possible to control a Covid-19 outbreak if you’re serious about it. South Korea, Singapore and even most of China outside of Hubei province seem to basically be on the ball at this point. Hubei is still just overwhelmed but they’re slowly coming to grips.
Iran and the United States, so far, are not serious about it, and you can see it in the numbers. I think the US is going to have a problem in that state and local authorities are going to have to be responsible, and some areas will be more serious than others, but the competent states won’t be surrounded by national borders so it’ll be impossible for them to control movement in and out (it’s hard to imagine anything like China’s quarantine of Wuhan, and that’s probably not a great idea anyway).
Still, this isn’t the completely impossible explosion that some have been speculating about.
Sab
@Nelle: I wish you were my neighbor.
Sab
@Nelle: I wish you were my neighbor.
@Bill Arnold: Fortunately my office had a bad flu scare last year. Healthy young spouse got very very sick. So we are all wary this year. Hand washing like mad. Smelly hand cream.
I am taking in a couple of bottles of spray rubbing alcohol tomorrow.
Sab
@Nelle: I wish you were my neighbor.
@Bill Arnold: Fortunately my office had a bad flu scare last year. Healthy young spouse got very very sick. So we are all wary this year. Hand washing like mad. Smelly hand cream.
I am taking in a couple of bottles of spray rubbing alcohol tomorrow.
NYCMT
@Matt McIrvin: It is not impossible for states to curtail interstate movement in the name of disease control, if the states have affirmatively authorized area quarantine regulations “cordon sanitaires”. For example, California, New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, New Jersey, and Georgia all have area quarantine regulations either generally and instantly applicable, or able to be applied upon a declaration of a state of emergency.
jl
@Bill Arnold: Thanks. I’d add that the competence and professionalism of state and local health departments is generally very high, from what I’ve seen.
Both clinical and non-clinical people are trained to a very high standard comparable to medical professionals. What they are doing now for coronavirus (which is critical to keep the epidemic under control) is the same thing they’ve done for almost 100 years for other diseases. They know the drill They do the same thing regularly for TB, STDs, food poisoning, bad drug overdose epidemics. If they weren’t very good, we’d be a lot sicker with those diseases and dying a lot more from them. We wouldn’t even worry about coronavirus, but TB, typhoid, histoplasmosis, Legionnaire’s disease, and related ailments more.
Edit: and meningitis. There are little outbreaks of deadly diseases all the time, make the news for a day or week, then go away. Because these people know what they are doing.
Bobby Thomson
It’s cute that you think anyone in the Trump administration can do all these things and remain in the Trump administration.
Bobby Thomson
@Matt McIrvin: the thing is, Washington state has excellent leadership and they still are being overwhelmed because the virus was allowed to spread for so long before anyone learned about it.
joel hanes
@Martin:
This looks to me like the opaque federal response to a supercritical shortage of testing capacity.
Dan B
@Yutsano: I will chip in to the Tim “Never met a tax (helpful government) I didn’t hate” Eyman vacation cruise fund. !Free transport and accomodations, plus fun Twister and more fun ‘Spin the Bottle’ games aboard a Princess cruise off San Francisco!!