Petri, Michelle Goldberg, and Adam Serwer are the three writers who I would say are the most responsible for keeping me mostly sane the last few years. This, from Petri, is fucking beautimous:
Too bad! Look, there was, once again, a problem with the female candidate, and I am very sorry about it. We have sure had a run of bad luck with these candidates! I would have said 10 years ago that there was no way Cyborg Dave would be president before a human woman, and that Armored Bob would be president SIX TIMES, but — that just shows why I am so highly compensated as a pundit: I am always so surprised, and people love to see it.
But the good news is that there are a lot of women who are already getting my hopes up for 2152. I can just tell. This new crop is everything that the past hundred-plus years of female contenders was not! They just feel right to me. This is going to be the time, for sure. (Coincidentally, those were the last words my now-140-year-old mother said, in 2076, right before we placed her in the Cryo-Tank so that she could not see the results and be disappointed yet again.)
It’s amazing to me, the weird coincidences we’ve had with these female candidates. First Hillary. Then Liz, Amy, Kamala and Kirsten. Then Alexandria. Then Fiona. Then Tiffany. Then Siri. Then Glorm (1 through 19). They always seem so presidential, and then, every time, like clockwork, the second they enter the race, it turns out that something is the matter with them and that a vote for them would betray the ideals I hold dearest. It almost feels deliberate and malicious on their part. Maybe they are the real cyborgs, not President Dave! (No, I am joking. Dave is certainly a cyborg.)
*SIGH*
Baud
To be fair, Glorm 3’s education plan kind of sucked.
debbie
I’m beginning to wish I could be Cryo-tanked too, just so I don’t have to deal with this crap.
Brachiator
Petri is quite a dish.
jk
If any female presidential candidate were as consistently inarticulate and incoherent as Uncle Joe, there’s no way in Hell she’d come close to winning the nomination.
Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and Harris are all smarter than Biden and Sanders and have far more gravitas than either of them.
The 2020 Democratic Primary campaign was a triumph of white male privilege over competence.
debbie
From the McSweeney’s link:
I may start crying.
The Dangerman
I actually don’t think we are THAT far from a woman President. Course, she will be Republican.
e julius drivingstorm
Had California’s primary led off the season would we be wondering why nobody seems to be able to catch Harris? Same goes for Massachusetts and Warren.
Major Major Major Major
Oh, you can—easily!
What’s that? You wanted to be thawed without dying? Might want to wait a bit.
Cheryl Rofer
Saw a comment on Twitter today along the lines of
We will see a President Ivanka or President Nikki before we see a Democratic woman president because the Republicans own their sexism and put it into action, whereas the Democrats have not yet faced their sexism.
Sounds about right to me.
chris
Aboard the Grand Princess.
Poe Larity
Amanda Margaret Thatcher will be eligible in 2028. She might be dual-citizen though. She could marry one of Schwarzenegger’s kids.
Amanda Thatcher-Schwarzenegger might work.
Jeffro
Dana Milbank has a gem up too: “Ask Dr Trump!”
it’ll make you laugh until you cry, and also just cry.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
The Dangerman
@Cheryl Rofer:
I’m not at all sure what owning your sexism means (long week/month/Trump Term) but it’s because Dems will never pull the shenanigans that Reps do wrt Women).
Baud
There’s a good chance Biden picks a female Veep. There’s also a good chance Biden only serves one term.
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud:
YAASSS!
Major Major Major Major
@Baud: there’s a reasonable chance he serves less than that, as well. He’s healthy enough, but statistics are statistics.
lgerard
Speaking of comedy gold
https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1236055907102011393?s=20
The “trying to look serious while this guy says some crazy bullshit” expressions when he gets to the uncle story are too funny
Major Major Major Major
@Cheryl Rofer: my brother follows betting lines closely and says the bookies are clearly expecting a woman VP nominee.
Brachiator
@e julius drivingstorm:
I don’t think so. As a Californian, I liked Harris and supported her early on. But she didn’t really give a compelling reason why she should be president. I think all the candidates have been OK, but none of them has been exceptional in any way.
They are all superior to Trump, btw.
guachi
@Cheryl Rofer: The Democrats will never nominate another white woman to be nominee ever again. Just look at how many people have been saying “Biden needs to nominate a woman of color”.
White women just get disappeared from the conversation. Support for Klobuchar and Warren was heavily tilted towards white women. At least Harris did equally well (or poorly, when she dropped out) among women of all races. But when you can’t get traction among male or black voters, well, neither of them had a chance.
Roger Moore
@The Dangerman:
No way in hell. For a long time, the Republicans have been selling the story that the first [insert minority here] president would be a Republican because they would have earned the nomination rather than getting it through affirmative action. It’s always been bullshit, just like all the GOP stories about affirmative action promoting undeserving minorities have always been bullshit. Before the Republicans can elect a woman president, they’ll first have to nominate one, and that just isn’t going to happen.
Baud
@guachi:
Through the end of time?
Kent
@jk: And the galling thing is that a majority of Democratic primary voters are women.
Baud
@Roger Moore:
I remember when the Republicans were going to make Colin Powell the first black president.
Baud
The next primary without a Bernie or Biden or Trump in the background will be telling.
lamh36
@Cheryl Rofer: I suspect there will be a number of Dem women cross over to vote for that as well, unless that woman is completely crap. But then again…Chump was crap and still majority white voters voted for him…so. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
To be clear, white women voters might, but I suspect, as has been the case, the Black women voters won’t fall for that, but sadly white Dem voters likely will.
Aleta
guachi
@Baud: I doubt I’ll see it in my lifetime. Unless the candidate gets a leg up somehow like Clinton, who had the benefit of being Obama adjacent. And Clinton was destroyed by Obama among male and black voters when they ran against each other. Just like Warren and Klobuchar did terrible among male and black voters.
Kent
@Cheryl Rofer: Really?
The GOP equivalent to Harris, Warren, Klobuchar, and Gillibrand is:
Marsha Blackburn, Joni Ernst, Martha McSally, Susan Collins And Lisa Murkowski
Which one of them is going to win the GOP nomination?
Baud
@guachi:
Hillary won the nomination in 2016 on the strength of black voters, including black male voters.
Roger Moore
@Cheryl Rofer:
This would be a more convincing argument if the Democratic party hadn’t already nominated a woman who won the popular vote by a substantial margin. The Republican Party still hasn’t managed to nominate anyone but white men.
Kent
@guachi: I think the first woman to sit in the Oval Office will get there via the VP office. We have already had two female VP candidates. There will be more, and one of them will finally be on a winning ticket, probably second to some old white man who will either not serve out his term, or not run for reelection.
Calouste
Two attendees to AIPAC’s conference have tested positive for Covid-19. The conference had 18,000 attendees, including 2/3 of Congress.
Kent
@Aleta: YES. This 1000-times. And if we don’t have Bernie in 2020 then we also likely don’t have Biden or Bloomberg either. And the race would have probably come down to Warren, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Booker. I still assume Harris’ campaign implodes and Castro doesn’t gain traction. Maybe one of the older white western guys from CO, MT, or WA also sneaks into the final 5.
No matter what, it’s a completely different race. I would still expect Klobuchar and Buttigieg to run into the southern Wall on Super Tuesday but then maybe Warren takes CA. So we might have been down to a Booker v Warren race, or something like that.
lamh36
A great thread from Michael Harriot, take a read if you have the time.
Brachiator
@The Dangerman:
Entirely possible.
Kent
@Brachiator: PLEASE GOP. Run Ivanka next time. PLEASE!
Feathers
@Cheryl Rofer: I don’t know. The “headship” doctrine in fundie evangelicalism is strong. They may be willing to embrace Trump, but I doubt they will let go of “I do not permit a woman to teach or to assume authority over a man; she must be quiet.” That would just cause too much trouble at home. I think Corey Robin has it right that the conservative project, from the French Revolution to now, has been to protect the freedoms of the wealthy to do as they please by promising the (male) masses that they will have dominion over their wives and children at home, as well as women in general.
One of the reasons the “white women” narrative bothers me is that it is one of those things which is true but stupid. Yes, white women are the enforcers of white supremacy and the patriarchy, but it is because they are its most closely held prisoners. There is a saying that male feminists are born when they have daughters, but in my experience it is even more true that women start becoming patriarchy’s silent cheerleaders when they have sons. Even while thinking of themselves as feminists.
Quinerly
Don’t know if mentioned. Mark Meadows named Trump’s Chief of Staff.
lamh36
The Disinformation Campaign Being Launched Against Biden
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/03/06/the-disinformation-campaign-being-launched-against-biden/#.XmL5PXHzpDV.twitter
Citizen Alan
@Kent:
None of them. I used to worry about the possibility of a conservative woman from the gop becoming president. But Michelle Bachman candidacy showed the logical flaw in that. Because in the end, no one is going to win the GOP nomination without the overwhelming support of that segment of the population that simply doesn’t think a woman should ever be in a position of authority over a man.
Feathers
@Kent: When Trump announced for the primary in late 2015, my assumption was that he was paving the way for a future President Ivanka, running to fulfill her father’s vision for America. They saw what a spectacular grift the perpetual campaign machine is.
In comment 39 above, I realize that the one woman I can see successfully running is a daughter or widow saying that she doesn’t want the mantle of leadership for herself, but only to continue her father/husband’s good works.
guachi
@Baud: She was Obama-adjacent by that point but I think we see it was also driven by how uniquely bad Sanders was in drawing the support of black voters. When she ran against Obama she got destroyed among black voters. When she ran against Sanders there was a massive gender gap.
Warren’s support among white women was about 20% on Super Tuesday. Among black men it was about 3%. Klobuchar’s support was close to 0% among black men. Among white women it was definitely higher (her support varied rapidly from Iowa to SC but was about 45% of women over 65 in NH – and in NH that basically meant white women).
Many Democratic voters, I’d say most, see candidates as race/gender bundles.
“Biden has to choose a woman of color as VP”. Just a race/gender bundle. I’m not choosing a person, I’m choosing a demographic profile.
This is why I wouldn’t be surprised if the first woman elected will be a Republican.
MisterForkbeard
Mulvaney just got fired, as per NPR
DB11
The only hope that I hold for a potential Biden win is that possibility that he names Harris as his running mate. I think that there’s an almost even-odds chance that he wouldn’t serve out his term and maybe we would finally get our competent woman president by that back-end route.
If nothing else, I see an almost zero chance that Joe would be up to a second term and in that case Kamala would enter the 2024 race as a/the frontrunner.Of course he would have to name her for any of this to come to pass.
I should add that while I think Stacey Abrams is incredibly impressive and currently more qualified than Mayor Pete, she still lacks the experience to step immediately into a presidential role if that were required.
She has the capability and potential — but she needs at least one more cycle and further political experience to be sufficiently seasoned for that level of office.
I would have zero worries about Kamala’s readiness to immediately take the reigns, should the need arise. Which should be the ante to be even considered as a VP choice.
zhena gogolia
@lamh36:
That is so good.
mrmoshpotato
I just threw up in my mouth a bit, and I blame you for making me think of the fact we could’ve had a President Sarah Palin via that route.
zhena gogolia
@MisterForkbeard:
I guess he’s responsible for Covid-19.
Baud
@guachi:
Black voters preferred her in 2008 until Obama won Lily white Iowa. Black voters including black male voters are not the problem.
You’d be better served questioning what young progressive voters were thinking.
bluehill
@Quinerly: Why now is the first question that comes to mind? Friday evening announcement? Hmmm.
MisterForkbeard
@zhena gogolia: It’s the only explanation.
mrmoshpotato
@MisterForkbeard: What musical chair was Mulvaney currently in? Seriously – I forget.
chris
@lamh36: That’s wonderful, thank you.
cokane
meh, blaming sexism or the media is just a lazy, unprovable argument. Warren ran a pretty mediocre campaign, despite having lots of advantages. I’m a fan of hers, and while her core message seemed to be cleaning out corruption in the initial stages of her campaign, leading up to Super Tuesday, I can’t say she had a concise pitch to voters.
cokane
say what you will about the tenets of Bernie’s socialism, at least it was a clear message to voters.
Major Major Major Major
chris
Cuz you can’t just shoot’em.
….I want to thank Acting Chief Mick Mulvaney for having served the Administration so well. He will become the United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland. Thank you!
No, no link!
lamh36
@guachi: More Black voters voted for HRC than white voters.
Tell me how that makes your statement correct?
Maybe I’ve been reading your commentary since Liz dropped out wrong, but it makes it seems as if Black voters are the problem?
Iowa, NH, Nevada, where the Black vote was not significant and overly white…and none Warren didn’t even make to 3rd in predominantly white states.
Massachusetts, Maine, etc…another state withoug predominant Black voters…and she also didn’t come in on top in those.
Yes, Black voters single handedly saved Biden’s campaign, so of course expectations are what they are when it comes to VP.
But here’s what i can bet ya…even if Biden DOESN’T pick a Black VP partner, Black voters will STILL reliably vote for the Dem nominee…I mean if he doesn’t pick Liz can white voters say the same? If past is prologue…hell no
So how’s about enough with the passive aggressive digs at Black voters..ok
DB11
@lamh36: Read that thread this morning and it was stellar. Harriot’s a great writer: entertaining, educating and confronting.
He breaks things down in a really effective way for reaching at least some of us well-intentioned, but essential clueless white people (clueless with regards to black voters / black experience).
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
It’s so uncanny.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
He’s canceling every outreach to Black voters, cuz you know, they don’t count.
DB11
@cokane:
Unlike, say, Joe Biden.
Brachiator
@lamh36:
The Harriot piece is pretty good. He nails is when he notes that patronizing bullshit coming from a lot of the Bernie bros and others who assume that black people in the South are uniformed religious folk who just don’t understand all that Bernie will do for them.
They know exactly what Bernie has to offer. And they have rejected it.
Harriot is not quite right about black people being wedded to the Democrats.
A majority of black voters went with Hoover in 1932. But (super shorthand) as a result of the Great Migration to the North, black people began to find the Democratic Party more welcoming, relatively speaking. Pressure was then put on the national party and by 1964, when Goldwater’s version of political purity made Southern white racists feel welcome, the switchover to the Democratic Party was total.
guachi
@Baud: If we bemoan the fact that women won’t get the nomination because of misogyny then that’s an indictment of male voters, correct?
And we’ve seen repeatedly that black voters won’t vote for white women in the same numbers white women will vote for a white woman.
Your own post highlights that black voters didn’t actually want to vote for the white woman until they saw white voters vote for the black man. So the onus is on male voters and black voters to show that they will actually vote for a woman. We’ve never seen male voters give more votes to a woman candidate than women voters do and we’ve seen once (when the terrible Sanders was the candidate) that black voters would vote for a white woman in significant numbers.
Dan B
I believe Biden has stated he would only serve on term. I has suggestions for VP!
Stop reading here if you don’t want to hear about Trump and minions.
In Nashville Trump was fascinated by a boy who was thrown by the tornado but when he heard that his parents and sister had died he started talking about himself.
And Trump’s appointment to head CDC, Robert Redfield, was part of a group that promoted the idea that AIDS was God’s punishment for homosexuality and single parent families.
P.S. the Inslee = snake comment seems to be going viral, and not in Trump’s favor. Coronovirus response is damaging Trump as is his insult of a governor who is doong a lot.
Miss Bianca
@lamh36: I love Michael Harriot.
Baud
@guachi:
This is just factually wrong. Egregiously so. Ask Hillary.
Brachiator
@cokane:
It’s shouty, but without substance.
cokane
Not seeing a GOP woman president, personally. Not any time soon. She has to actually win the nomination, folks. And I’m sorry but that party is going to gravitate towards the male candidates regardless.
Shalimar
@Quinerly: And Mulvaney is now Special Envoy to Northern Ireland. Trump is apparently unaware that Mulvaney is still Director of OMB.
cokane
@Brachiator: well, that’s just like your opinion man. But in all seriousness, has the Biden campaign been substantive? Let’s be honest
Kent
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: They do count, but only 3/5ths in Bernie math. Especially if they are below the Mason Dixon line.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@DB11: Warren did very well. She started at zero, with no fund raising and went on to lead the field at one point, raising a boat load of cash.
That said, Biden’s message was concise: return to normalcy.
People who supported other candidates felt that wasn’t enough, but that doesn’t mean it’s not concise.
Aziz, light!
Suppose vanity hadn’t propelled the four old white guys to run this time — one of the talented up and comers would have had a shot. Warren might have inherited Bernie’s followers (except the party-hating lefties); Harris might have impressed a much wider audience; Klobuchar could have owned the center lane.
And suppose the debate format weren’t so awful and the moderators so dumb, and suppose the media was objective instead of taking marching orders from their owners…
Point being that misogyny was a factor but not the only one.
Kent
@MisterForkbeard: I first read this and thought. John Mulaney got fired? Really? But he was soo good on Netflix. My daughter is going to be crushed.
cokane
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: yeah, this is a pretty fair assessment.
Jeffro
@Kent: Nikki Haley
Amir Khalid
@Quinerly:
How long do the bookies say he will last?
chris
@Shalimar: Jared can handle OMB.
lamh36
He’s not wrong. I mean ya already got Bernie-bros like Cenk trying to push “biden has dementia” attacks.
Dan B
@Miss Bianca: Harriot’s piece about Pete was poor journalism. For contrast there is an excellent piece of well documented research by JS in ‘Medium’.
BTW I was a Harris supporter then a Warren supporter. Pete seemed like a rising star not an experienced leader. And he may be best at being a deputy cabinet minister. But i defer to Satby who has seen him up close.
Baud
@lamh36: Yeah, I’ve seen that too. No surprise.
BTW, “Bernie Brothers.” LOL
Poe Larity
@Calouste:
18,000 attendees, how many other diseases were tested for?
oatler.
@Kent:
He’ll always be remembered for Lobster Diner.
Brachiator
@cokane:
This is a blog site for opinions.
There is no point in contrasting Bernie and Biden. Bernie is an empty vessel compared to anyone.
He bloviates about Medicare for All and talks about health care “like they have in Europe.”
But the fact is that many advanced nations with universal health care do not use single payer to fund it.
He has talked about a progressive agenda for years. But he displays zero knowledge about how other countries actually developed and implemented their systems.
He is a sad sack politician. And yet some people give him the benefit of the doubt because some of the policies he shouts about come close to what they like.
Sanders has been honking the same note for decades. He needs to learn another tune.
ETA: I have consistently said that it would be interesting to see if Sanders can convince voters that he has something to offer. I have already voted, and voted for Warren. Whatever I may think of him, it is still up to him to do well in the remaining primaries, if he can.
geg6
Yes she is.
DB11
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: It’s just hard for me to label anything about Joe as concise.
You’re probably right that underneath all of his bluster, misrememberings and malapropisms, there was that underlying message.
My pushback is that Warren’s overarching theme about ending all forms of corruption — political and corporate — was delivered with a lot more clarity and consistency than anything I heard from Joe.
But different people can hear different things in the same words, depending on their predilections and pre-conceptions.
Steeplejack
@mrmoshpotato:
Mulvaney was White House chief of staff. Ali Velshi, sitting in for Rachel Maddow, says his replacement will be . . . Mark Meadows, nutball right-wing congressman and Freedom Caucus superstar (R-NC).
Miss Bianca
@Dan B: ?! It’s not about Pete.
lamh36
@Baud: facts don’t seem to matter to guachi.
It’s obvious he or she has issues with the dominance of Black voters control over the Dem party nomination.
He/she should just say it with his/her chest though and stop pulling opinions out of his/her azz and treating them like “facts”
But of course he/she won’t
mrmoshpotato
@lamh36: Thank you.
schrodingers_cat
BS surrogates including ones with blue ticks on Twitter have started a concerted and coordinated smear campaign against Biden. Calling him demented and in decline. Straight of Russian and Republican playbooks.
schrodingers_cat
@lamh36: Not jus Cenk, I saw Matt Stoller push the same meme and other prominent media bros. It is a coordinated campaign.
Like 2016.
MisterForkbeard
@Baud: Yeah, I saw that too. :)
Poe Larity
The Guardian writes:
What would that make Bernie.
zhena gogolia
@Poe Larity:
Chernenko.
schrodingers_cat
And no the first female President won’t be a Republican.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
Like the Marx Brothers, only less funny.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Has there been an Intercept article yet? They are usually in cahoots with the propaganda.
NotMax
@David Merry Christmas Koch
Maybe we really shouldn’t bandy that about as after all it was Harding’s campaign slogan.
lamh36
the irony…this chick admittedly voted for Jill Stein in ’16
Bernie folks got some nerve…god I hope Biden cleans his clock in the next couple of contests!
lamh36
@lamh36:
Baud
@lamh36: Exactly right.
Martin
Latest models seem to show that CoV is doubling every 6.2 days.
Best count we have is 2298 tests administered, 223 positive, 1617 negative, 458 pending. Half of those pending are in NY, so expect a big update in the next day or two from Cuomo.
The feds are clearly slow-rolling testing. Trumps comments today make that clear enough. States are going to open these numbers up and show the degree to which the Feds are fucking this up (which is why Inslee is a ‘snake’).
SiubhanDuinne
I apparently went unconscious for a time. Mulvaney is out as CoS? (Not that I’m either sorry or surprised.)
lamh36
https://twitter.com/Kat4Obama/status/1236115631486844930
Baud
@Martin:
You would think they would want everyone tested to jack up their negative numbers and make the rate look smaller.
Martin
@SiubhanDuinne: Just a few minutes. Mulvaney out. Meadows in.
Surprised it didn’t go to Gym Jordan given the latest news there.
Martin
@Baud: The numbers are going to be huge once widespread testing starts.
A Ghost To Most
@SiubhanDuinne: Be sorry Mark Meadows is replacing Mick.
Feathers
@Martin: I am really impressed that Cuomo is announcing each days numbers from his own twitter feed. He’s still terrible, but at least he knows how important and dangerous this moment is.
lamh36
Course this is why the Bernie-bro attacks are ramping up on Biden…
Jeffro
@Martin: “Doubling every week??? Why…we’d sure as hell not let that get out! My re-election is at stake!”
-trumpov, doing his best Greg Stillson imitation, metaphorically speaking
lamh36
patroclus
@NotMax: Nonsense. It’s a proven winner – exactly one century ago. And the dementia thing isn’t all that much of a loser either. Reagan’s first debate performance against Mondale showed it and his entire 2nd term proved it.
Regarding the thread topic, it’ll happen, just not soon enough for many. I voted for Hillary last time and Amy this time. Others will follow. African American men were able to vote (sort of) in 1866; women (including white women) couldn’t until 1920 (in most states) – a difference of 54 years. The first African American male President wasn’t elected until 2008 – I predict that it will be less than 54 years before we see a female President.
Jeffro
@Feathers: the state governors and their health departments and the hospitals in their states are going to be tested like they – and perhaps we – could not believe.
The spillover effects as these folks start coming to ERs, taking up beds and ICU spots, and infecting front-line health care workers are going to be tremendous.
A Ghost To Most
@lamh36: Bernie is the lefts’ Q-Anon.
Sab
@guachi: If she can’t be pres I am perfectly happy to have Warren stay in the Senate.
Jeffro
@lamh36: I’m not sure why the unified Democratic response to any/all of these attacks on Biden isn’t, “Cognitive. Decline? You’re SURE you want to go with that as your argument for trumpov over Biden??!?1?”
And then just laugh hysterically, and tell the trumpublican to F off.
chris
@SiubhanDuinne: Not only is Mulvaney out, he’s out of the country! They’re deporting him to Northern Ireland.
(As Special Envoy.)
lamh36
Martin
An illustration of how Singapore does things.
That’s every case in the country, their status, when they became symptomatic, when they were diagnosed, when they were declared recovered, their movement history, and roughly where they live (basically what block they live on). It also shows what other cases this case is related to.
Singapore contained their outbreak largely through this kind of individual identification, movement tracking, relationship tracking, and general transparency so that people that may have interacted with them can self-identify. In the US, we can’t even get an accurate count or even a sense of how many tests are available.
Martin
@Feathers: There’s a lot to be said for just doing the mechanics of the job competently.
lamh36
@Jeffro: well I’m sure it would be except just as many of Bernie’s online bros are pushing that including blue check journo folks like cenk et al.
They are pushing the dementia thing and the official line is pushing the “why isn’t Biden contolling his supporters” route.
sanjeevs
@chris: i thought people here were joking about Mulvaney being named Special Envoy to Northern Ireland.
in British politics being named Northern Ireland Secretary is the equivalent of being sent to the gulags.
Baud
@lamh36: Really amazing.
Jeffro
@Baud: It would jack up the numbers but show a smaller rate of infection, and they’re stupid, and they’re only focused on the raw numerical count.
I would love for just one official in this WH to explain to the Orange Dimwit that his blessed poll numbers would skyrocket if he would just a) shut up and b) accept that the public – and the precious stock market – will be fine as soon as there is a general sense that competent people are executing competent plans here.
This is not rocket science. But the maladministration is focused on reporting next to nothing, giving next to no guidance, pretending there’s no issue, blaming it all on Obama, pushing people to keep going to work regardless of their health issues, and flat out lying about when a vaccine will be available.
Oh and also keeping Americans quarantined off the coast just so that they don’t *technically* show up in US case reports.
trumpov better hope that one of his security detail’s elder relatives doesn’t come down with this crap and kick the bucket…
Brachiator
@Martin:
It is sad, in a way, to see that Trump has no problem getting new vermin to replace those he gets rid of.
And they know the score. Loyalty and the willingness to cover up crimes.
chris
@sanjeevs: As I said, he’s being deported. Better than being defenestrated I guess and far from congressional subpoenas from Adam Schiff et al.
Jeffro
@lamh36: This is on top of Bloomberg, his opponent last week(!) basically committing whatever it takes to help Biden win 6 swing states.
The GOP can kid itself all they want, there is a serious Blue Wave 2 coming.
chris
Well, shit.
Jeffro
@lamh36: Wait…they’re saying BIDEN isn’t controlling HIS supporters?
Is that just classic Rovian/trumpian ‘accuse your opponent of whatever you’re most guilty of’ or what? Unbelievable. Next they’ll be claiming that Biden shouts too much, wags his finger a lot, was pro-Castro, etc.
Jeffro
@chris: Yup.
Testing will show that it’s almost everywhere at this point.
And who was against testing, again?
Shrillhouse
Does it really matter who replaces Mulvaney, or even if anyone replaces him at all?
Ultimately, that orange-faced degenerate imbecile is going to just follow whatever instinct floats through the alarmingly vacant space between his ears…
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
How many divisions does Twitter have?
~ Ио́сиф Ста́лин
Jeffro
@Brachiator: Meadows does have some serious crazy going on between the ears, that’s for sure.
All the best people…
lamh36
@Jeffro: yup…they really think they are slick…smh
chris
@Shrillhouse: If we can get through the weekend everything will be fine when Hope Hicks returns to the preznit’s house.
Big if…
Martin
Hospital infection literature review
Wash yo hands.
Sodium hypochlorite is bleach. Usually 3%-6% when you buy it at the store, so you can dilute it 10:1. Don’t use it on wood.
Ken
@chris: Great news! Just sixteen more cases on land, and we’ll be able to let the passengers off that cruise ship without hurting Trump’s numbers too much.
Unless of course some of the 3500 untested people on that ship show their disloyalty to Trump by getting the virus.
Gravenstone
@chris:
Because his name is ‘Mick’, right?
/facepalm
Barbara
@Martin: Clearly, I missed some news if Trump called Inslee a snake. That actually happened?
Martin
@Ken: Hawaii also got their first case – a passenger that got off of the ship there.
Martin
@Barbara:
Marcopolo
@chris:What this means is more testing is finally happening. Folks have been walking around the US with COVID-19 for weeks.
As bad as it will seem over the next week or two as a massive number of folks with the infection get identified, it is actually good news. Can’t fight the damned thing if you don’t know the severity/dimensions of the problem.
Ken
@Gravenstone: I assumed it was because Trump wants to buy property in Northern Ireland.
Amir Khalid
@Martin:
It helps that Singapore is geographically smaller than New Yotk City. Not many countries have that advantage.
Matt McIrvin
@Aleta: The gathering consensus in Bernie Twitterworld seems to be that Warren’s takedown of Bloomberg was actually a devious stab in the back aimed at Bernie Sanders, with the intention of nominating Biden.
Like the citizens of Margaritaville, some people claim that there’s a woman to blame…
Kent
@Jeffro: You could say this same thing about any aspect of Trump’s presidency. He could have just rammed through a big infrastructure bill, with the help of Dems, watched bridge and highway projects all over the country pop up with signs on them: “Another TRUMP Administration Project Making America Better”, spent half his time on the golf course and cutting ribbons, put away his phone, and would have cruised to reelection with 60% approval. That is basically what Ronald Reagan did.
Martin
@Amir Khalid: That’s true. But more than that, Singapore has shown incredible follow-through on an individual level.
So far we have 250 or so cases across the country. We could easily show that kind of follow through across 50 states, thousands of counties, etc.
It requires serious investment from day 1, leadership, delegation of responsibility. It’s not that hard.
Kent
@Matt McIrvin: Would that we could just quarantine Bernie Twitter like it is the Coronavirus. Just cut it off and send it out to sea.
Peale
@Kent: the thing about David Sirota claiming that he’s been threatened by out of control Bidenbots is that honestly I know he’s lying but wish it were true.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Dangerman: Just like the first Black President. Right?
Martin
Good news!
Passengers on the Grand Princess, who are about to be sacrificed to keep Trumps golf score low, are being offered a $300 onboard credit so they can at least die intoxicated.
L85NJGT
@Peale:
The amount of uncoordinated crazy emanating from that campaign is concerning. I mean why drop that ugly lie Friday night – did someone finally tell the boss how bad he did on Tuesday?
Smells of field offices with a bunch of who-are-you, what-do-you-do and why-are-you-here types sitting around eating free pizza.
Gvg
@Cheryl Rofer: sorry, that is nonsense. The GOP is much more sexist than we are, both the voters and the elected. McCain lost support over Palin, even though some vocal minority treated her like a pin up girl or tabloid movie star.
some of the current issue isn’t misogyny, it’s fear of others misogyny and risk aversion. Give it a cycle or two of more and more women winning all kinds of other positions, making it more normal and then it will happen….except, we’ll most Presidents have also been more talented than normal at a certain kind of popular appeal that is beyond me to define but I do think it won’t just be any woman, it will be one who is special. Warren is smart but she is not a natural politician like Bill Clinton or Obama. Kamala has some issues too but I haven’t heard enough details. I still think Hillary was actually better, but there was a backlash waiting to happen right then.
sometimes luck is a factor too. It’s pretty hard to become President even if you aren’t a woman.
i really don’t think this defeatism is justified.
Lapassionara
@Shalimar: that’s his other job. I knew he had one, and also acting director of the CFB.
chris
@Martin: Woohoo! I can attest that 151 proof rum is a great, um, disinfectant.
Omnes Omnibus
@Martin: Hmmm… Pushing Bloomberg. Now hyping Singapore’s approach to governance. I can’t quite put my finger on it.
BC in Illinois
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
On the other hand, as far as I know, the Joe Biden St Louis event is still on for tomorrow at 11:00.
The latest poll has Biden leading Sanders in Missouri (Primary, next Tuesday) 43% – 25%. (That’s a big jump from his earlier lead.)
The Democrats of MO are mainly in StL and KC. So Biden is coming, and Bernie is not.
I plan to be there. I may still wear my Warren button, but I’ll pick up a Biden sign. It’s time.
ETA: The MO Primary Poll is from 538’s website.
L85NJGT
@Omnes Omnibus:
Mike’s true calling is supreme ruler of a city-state. NYC and USA are just way too complex and messy. Somewhere he can be autocratic but not despotic. A clean well lit place, where nobody spits in the street, but the calorie counts are healthy.
Jeffro
@Martin: …and part of history! Don’t forget that part!
What’s the over/under on when one or more of them jumps and tries to swim to shore? And would that person then show up in trumpov’s blessed numbers or be DQ’d for not keeping America great?
Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: I will have you know I voted for Warren.
I was not pushing Bloomberg so much as I was trying to find a way to move him into the ‘I will support him as our nominee’ category when it started to look like that might be a possibility. I’m quite relieved I don’t need to.
And maybe this is too nuanced, but I don’t generally support Singapore’s approach to governance. But just as I can be a capitalist that can recognize where capitalism is not well suited and can enthusiastically support a socialist solution, I can look at the US approach to a public health crisis and recognize a more effective one when I see it.
Put another way, Jay Inslee today toured a razor-wire surrounded quarantine location that I think they’re planning on filling with RVs, and I can see China’s effective solution, and say ‘ok, they may work, but what if we just track cases really, really carefully because that too seems to work’ and not put large parts of the population on lockdown.
Barbara
@Martin: It’s truly obscene, to basically abandon sick people at sea.
Martin
@Jeffro: If my government were refusing to let me off the ship, and presumably leaving me there to die like the Diamond Princess, I’d be working out the best way to set the ship on fire.
Martin
@Barbara: They’re not abandoned, they have a $300 on ship credit for christ’s sake!
(Not ever having been on a cruise ship, because I don’t like vacationing in a petri dish of nonovirus, what exactly does $300 do for you if you’re in isolation in your cabin? Is that like for porn rentals or something?)
randy khan
@Matt McIrvin:
I have seen that theory, which apparently is that by taking out Bloomberg she wrecked Bernie’s strategy of winning primaries by pluralities, since Bloomberg voters moved to Biden.
It’s . . . creative.
Jeffro
@Martin: Well sure…but only after using up all the Bacardi 151! (per Chris at #159) ;)
(ok maybe saving an ounce or two to start the fire)
You don’t abandon ship until the bar’s empty, for pete’s sake…
Kent
Nikki Haley seems to occupy the same place in the fevered nightmares of Democrats that Hillary Clinton occupied in the Republican brain for 20 years. She barely eeked out two wins in GOP South Carolina with an assist from Sara Palin didn’t she?
What evidence is there that she is anything more than the female Bobby Jindal? Who was the brilliant Ivy League Rhodes Scholar and supposed to be the first in a new kind of Republican? Until he got into the Republican primary and couldn’t even make it to the grown-ups table.
Jeffro
@randy khan: That was their strategy, though. Hope for multiple candidates to keep going, winning small numbers of delegates here and there while Bernie (via name recognition and his blessed “authenticity”) kept winning more/some in every contest.
Arrive at the convention with 30-35% of the delegates and voila! Who could deny a raging success like that???
LOL
Such a shame he couldn’t expand his small base, or reach out to anyone (voters OR other campaigns), or disclose his health records, or not be disagreeable all the time.
L85NJGT
@BC in Illinois:
SUSA has Biden up by one in Washington. Sanders is going all in on Michigan, but so far down in the polling that it really doesn’t matter.
I’d guess they are trying to get a win, set the narrative Joe is a drooling idiot, and expose him in the next debate.
Martin
2 nCoV fatalities in Florida. 3rd state to record a fatality.
E
Trying to blame the failure of every female candidate on gender gets a little bit tiring at some point. Hillary Clinton lost because she was a shitty candidate who had a shitty campaign. You know those three states she really needed to win, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, yeah well, she basically never campaigned there. She ran against the man who wants to force women to give birth against their will, deny them birth control, and got caught on video tape saying he likes to go up to strange women and finger them against their will. Running against that, Hillary lost 53% of white female voters to him. Men didn’t force women to vote that way. Her shitty campaign did.
Moreover, the Republican Party, The Party of forced birth and no birth control regularly gets over 40% of the female vote. That’s insane. If there was a party of nothing but women who simply wanted to make condoms available only through a prescription they probably wouldn’t get more than 1% of the male vote. And yet a party of nothing but men looking to force women to give birth against their will regularly gets over 40% of female voters. Men are not forcing women to do that. They’re choosing on their own to do that for some bizarre reason.
And as for Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden did worse than Elizabeth Warren in the first three contests and yet he most likely is going to be the nominee. Why? Because beginning in South Carolina he got around 60% of black voters and carried that forward to Super Tuesday. That’s why. If Elizabeth Warren had gotten 60% of black voters in South Carolina she would have been a nominee. Joe Biden is the nominee and all the others including Elizabeth Warren aren’t because Joe Biden was able to get black voters to come out for him and no one else could. End of story.
Cheryl Rofer
Kent
@L85NJGT: If Biden runs the table this coming Tuesday and even wins WA then I don’t even see why he needs to debate in 2 weeks as opposed to just pivoting to the General Election. He won’t lose any future votes by doing that. In fact most Dems will cheer if he starts going on the Trump war-path rather than following Bernie around arguing about M4A and decades old Senate votes.
Jeffro
@Kent: Here are the reasons why NH is not HRC, and not Jindal
not HRC: hasn’t been slimed constantly in the mainstream media for 30+ years, hasn’t been the subject of a gazillion wacko RWNJ books, hasn’t had to sit for 8 Benghazi investigations specifically designed to “damage her presidential run” (by Kevin McCarthy, no less).
not Jindal: actually has a brain, keeps getting allowed (by the media, but also with the GOP powers-that-be) to straddle the line between being some sort of ‘independent’ republican and a trumpublican toady, has stayed active/in contention for higher offices (unlike Jindal – where is he now, again? I don’t even wanna Google it).
Once Haley faces 1/4 of the scrutiny that Clinton did, then, well she’ll be 1/4 of the way there. I’d be surprised if it ever even gets that far. HRC is the standard for decades-long sliming by an opposing political party and that’s unlikely to be broken until AOC turns 60.
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: Singapore is also basically a benevolent dictatorship. There’s a bunch of demographic and other information the Singapore government keeps on its residents. And there is much more central control. Again, Singapore is tiny, but there’s more to it than just size.
Kent
Well, yes. If only Bernie were more like Barak Obama or Bill Clinton. And if only he were a real Democrat, then he would have been more successful. But then he wouldn’t be Bernie.
Martin
Stanford just cancelled in-person classes through the end of the quarter (~3 weeks).
chris
@Yutsano: Singapore also has a universal healthcare system, kinda handy in these times.
E
The notion that we don’t make any comments on the likability or appearance of male political candidates is demonstrably False and laughable. The entire Al Gore George- George Bush campaign was predicated upon the notion that Al Gore wasn’t likable, that he seemed like a robot, that people couldn’t relate to him, and that Bush was the candidate that you wanted to have a beer with. We agonized for days over the color of Al Gore suits, that he was wearing Earth Tones, and it turned turned people off.
On Fox News we had a whole week of coverage about Obama wearing a tan suit. When Obama was first coming up, article after article after article referred to him as a young and handsome.
And currently virtually every Chris Christie joke is a fat joke. Virtually every Mitch McConnell joke is a joke about his face and he looks like a turtle. Don’t get me wrong, they deserve it, and I don’t feel bad for them, but the notion that we don’t make fun or comment on the appearance or personality of male politicians? Are you kidding me?
Jeffro
@Jeffro: Had to check…Jindal quietly bailed on the GOP in 2017 (probably for the paycheck from an investment firm), but also because being a trumpublican means being anti-ACA, which also means saying ‘who cares about pre-existing conditions’ and one of his kids has a congenital heart defect
He also clearly had no future in a white supremacist party led by trumpov.
JWR
@Matt McIrvin:
Mother Jones had a pretty good, (or pretty funny, depending on your POV), article about what happened Tuesday. Turns out it was when Mayor Pete and Amy K showed up at the Nevada debate looking a bit disheveled. No really! That was part of the “Establishment’s” devious plan to undermine Bernie.
Jeffro
@Kent: He’s welcome, always, to continue being Bernie.
But being Bernie doesn’t entitle him to anything – not primary votes, not honorary membership in a party he won’t join, and certainly not a presidential nomination, much less the WH.
Authenticity” is admirable and desirable, but it’s not a super power…and he’s not the only one who has it.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Kent
@Jeffro: Mind you I’m not saying Nikki Haley is the Republican Hillary Clinton. I’m saying she occupies the same place in the Dem establishment mind that Hillary Clinton occupied in the GOP brain.
Witness all the Dem speculation that Trump is going to drop Pence and run with Nikki Haley when there is zero evidence that Trump even knows her name. How much time has she spent in Trump circles since leaving the UN Ambassador position? How much has she kissed the Trump ring? And all the speculation here that she is some GOP secret weapon so that they can beat the Dems to electing the first female president when there is zero evidence that has ever been even the slightest GOP objective.
Haley has a brain and Jindal doesn’t? This is from Jindal’s wiki page. He’s not *THAT* stupid. In fact, he was probably way too damn smart to get elected to a national ticket as a Republican. They don’t like them that smart.
Another Scott
@E:
Ctrl-F “Comey” – nothing.
Hmmm…
The majority of whites have voted Republican in every election over the past 50 years (a story from 2016).
But, yeah, it’s all Hillary’s fault she lost.
(groucho-roll-eyes.gif)
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
Based on R0 of 2.5 (seems right) doubling every 7-10 days (seems low). This is basically the ‘do nothing’ scenario. I’m guessing we’ll do something. Hopefully…
4.8 million hospitalizations is going to be tough to pull off – we have 800,000 beds, so people better not need more than 10 days, and oh, nobody else is allowed to get sick for any reason.
Yutsano
@chris: That thought had also occurred to me. That’s why the virus is going to devastate the two big countries on the planet that don’t.
The Thin Black Duke
@Another Scott: Thank you, sir.
Martin
@chris: At least the unified EMR is.
NotMax
@Martin
A poll on presidential preferences right now among the passengers who are Americans would be interesting.
Anya
@lamh36: Thank you for sharing. This was eliminating. Fuck anyone who says black voters are not informed.
Kent
@Martin: I can’t find anything like this on the American Hospital Association’s web site or by google searching. It just seems to have popped up by magic on Twitter.
Are you sure of the source? Seems like this would be front-page news if true.
Kent
Two big countries without national health care? What are those two? The US and Nigeria?
Martin
@Kent: Alternate source: https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3
I wouldn’t put a ton of weight on the model. Humans are good at feedback loops, so I would expect increasing efforts to limit spread as each week advances. In theory I think this could happen, but I think it’d have to be an utter failure of social policy at every level.
Yutsano
@Kent: Believe it or else, the People’s Republic of China does not have universal health care. Rather surprising for a Communist country no?
NotMax
@Martin
Are they going to stack people up like cord wood? That’s nearly five times as many projected admissions as there are hospital beds in the country.
Eolirin
@NotMax: Not everyone will be sick at exactly the same time.
We’d still be looking at a serious shortage of beds, but mostly because other things will also be happening that aren’t Covid-19
Martin
@NotMax: At some point they simply tell people to stay home and ride it out, with the expectation they won’t survive. Otherwise they’re just infecting more people with nowhere to put them.
And shit is getting real, people. Costco just stopped doing free samples. They should switch over to free samples of Clorox wipes and toilet paper.
Calouste
@Martin: 1,900,000 ICU admissions is going to be even harder. I read earlier that the UK has 4,000 ICU beds, so I assume the US has somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000. Best case scenario, a patient gets 24 hours in the ICU.
NotMax
@Martin
In fairness, Costco is calling that at least somewhat as due to supply chain disruption and uncertainty. Which is not implausible.
Can’t demo and sell what isn’t or cannot be confirmed to be there.
Spider-Dan
While I was excited and hopeful to cast my vote for Warren, I don’t think 2020 is the death knell for female candidates that many fear. Donald Trump beat a white woman last cycle. If McCain had beaten Obama in 2008, I can guaran-damn-tee you that the Democratic nominee in 2012 would not have been a black man.
My best-case scenario is that Biden-Warren wins in 2020, and Warren-Biden wins in 2024.
Eolirin
@NotMax: That the supply chain is being disrupted to that extent is going to be a big problem.
NotMax
@Eolirin
Strictly a guess but would attribute it more to uncertainty than to disruption at this juncture. There’s X amount of cargo space in shipments and storage space in stores and I suspect an unusually disproportionate amount is being relegated to staples which are flying out the door (toilet paper, etc.), pushing aside things like gorgonzola and kale stuffed ravioli.
leeleeFL
@The Dangerman: Just said this yesterday! It makes me crazy! I think Mayor Pete might win before a Democratic Party Woman. Alice Walker writes about the awfulness that befalls women because men fear us. Not winning Presidential Politics is one of them, I guess.
bluehill
@NotMax: 3000 of them will be on a cruise ship, so that’ll help.
bluehill
@Martin: If the number of deaths is anywhere near that estimate, there will be riots. People go nuts over a cheap tv on black friday. Don’t want to imagine what they will do if this comes to pass.
NotMax
@bluehill
“Perfect riots! We’re #1!!!!”
//
Butter Emails
@Cheryl Rofer:
This truism is underscored by all the women Republicans have in Congress, while the Democrats have failed to elect even a 1/2 dozen. Oh, wait.
joel hanes
If the number of deaths is anywhere near that estimate, there will be riots.
Those are very conservative numbers.
Here’s a different take, which is more in line with what I expect :
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
Before June 1, all available hospital beds in the US will be filled.
At that point there will be ten million active cases in the US, most of them treated only by self-isolation. Mortality among those patients over 70 years old will be significant, and for those in the prime of life, maybe around half a percent. That implies tens of thousands of deaths within the next three months.
joel hanes
@bluehill:
there will be riots
People will not wish to come together in large groups of strangers for any reason.