Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

I was promised a recession.

This blog will pay for itself.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

I really should read my own blog.

Come on, man.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Bark louder, little dog.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Best Guess is Ugly

Best Guess is Ugly

by | 176 Comments

This post is in: 

Josh Marshall has decided to move all COVID-19 news outside the TPM paywall. Good for him. I like his curated letters from readers around the world: they’re a great example of “I’m here, you’re not, let me tell you about it.”

Reader Interactions

176Comments

  1. 1.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    Holy shit. As an old who’s had a heart attack, this scares me stupid. And Mr DAW is older than I am and closer to the very vulnerable age group.

    Deep breath. Control what I can control. Wash my hands. Don’t touch my face. Stay home when I can. I’m lucky I don’t have to go to work. The internet and books are good things.

  3. 3.

    Mike in NC

    Are most of the wingnuts still calling this thing a ‘Chinese hoax’, like climate change?

  5. 5.

    Old Dan and Little Ann

    If I was offered a million dollars to go a day without touching my face I would fail within minutes. Or be stark raving mad by the end.

  6. 6.

    chopper

    and this is based on a CFR of .5, which is much less than what it’s been so far. i assume based on better medical care here, although i can’t imagine that’ll last once hospital beds fill up.

  8. 8.

    MattF

    I visited a hospital yesterday (a non-skippable medical appointment) and the staff were doing fist-bumps rather than handshakes.

  9. 9.

    HyperSphericalCow

    Jesus, half a million deaths in the next two months? That’s “The Stand” level mortality.

  16. 16.

    dmsilev

    Not that we need much confirmation of incompetence in the Trump administration, but

      Squandered time: How the Trump administration lost control of the coronavirus crisis:

    Azar’s bungled announcement before the Senate Finance Committee on Feb. 13 was just one of many preventable missteps and blunders in the federal government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis — the embodiment of an administration that, for weeks, repeatedly squandered opportunities to manage and prepare for a global epidemic that has killed thousands worldwide and at least 17 so far in the United States.
    This portrait of the precious weeks that President Trump and his administration frittered away in trying to deal with the coronavirus is the result of interviews with 16 current and former administration officials, state health officials and outside experts, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to share candid assessments.

    I’m waiting for the inevitable corruption stories to come out. My prediction is that contracts for test kits will have gone out to unqualified suppliers owned by Trump cronies and/or GOP donors.

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    @Ryan: a That’s the ship, to remind everyone, which had 21 confirmed cases out of 46 people tested. And has about 3000 people total on board.

  19. 19.

    Ryan

    96,000,000 cases in two months implies there are that many test kits available to confirm cases.  I salute the AHA’s confidence in this administration!

  21. 21.

    Emma from FL

    I ordered 99% alcohol to mix with my usual aloe vera gel to make my own sanitizer. I also ordered sterile alcohol prep pads to carry with me. Like most people there’s no way to keep my hands off my face especially since my estrogen suppressors have left my skin really dry and itchy, so I am carrying both hand and facial cream.

  25. 25.

    JPL

    @Old Dan and Little Ann: I would fail but it would take me longer.   While working outside, I brushed the hair off my face and ended up with poison ivy.   I have a scar where part of an eyebrow was.   Anywho,  I do try to be careful.  Oh I’m pretty allergic to it so steroid shots and pills were also given.

  26. 26.

    Quantumman

    Not sure this is legit stats.  I went to American Hospital Association web pages and did not see this.  Can anyone verify legitimacy of source of these estimates???

  27. 27.

    Emma from FL

    @MattF: I’m covered with that. I am fanatical about cleaning my hands anyway because for a number of years I worked with very old books with and without gloves.

  32. 32.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Archon:

    If those numbers hold the economy is going to crater…

    Don’t tell Trump. It’s possible he might get a wee tad bit upset, and then he might, I dunno, stretch the truth a little. And we wouldn’t want that.

  33. 33.

    Kent

    Total numbers of new cases and deaths are diminishing rapidly in China day by day.  So it is POSSIBLE to rein in this virus.  But I’m not remotely optimistic that Americans in general, and our government in specific, are up to the task.

    That said, the most vulnerable populations are those elderly populations with weakened respiratory systems, like lifetime smokers with chronic bronchitis or emphysema.   So the one think we can all do is beef up our health, exercise, and just generally ramp up our levels of fitness.  Which is not a bad thing to do under any circumstances.

  34. 34.

    JPL

    @MattF: I still have some wipes, but I might look for that.   If you use allergy eye drops or nasal spray, it is a good idea to wipe them with a sterile cloth.   That’s actually why I looked, because my supply is low.

    Now don’t tell anyone else in Fulton Cty, before I have a chance to look.

  36. 36.

    CaseyL

    @JPL: Some friends of mine went on a road trip this weekend, and I’ve asked them to buy a bottle or two of rubbing alcohol if they happen to see any.

    I’m frankly gobsmacked.  It’s one thing to hear, on the news and anecdotally, how there are no hand-wipes or rubbing alcohol to be found anywhere in the city.  It’s another to go shopping (for other stuff, but still…) and see the shelves yourself in all their emptied-out glory.

    Regarding the numbers: I’ve heard a number of people cast doubt upon them.  One reasonable critique I’ve heard is, if the growth of cases is that much that quickly, there would be already be tens (or hundreds) of millions of cases in China, despite the crackdown-lockdown.

  38. 38.

    The Dangerman

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

    I wonder how long Trump tries to ride the “hoax” thing. At some point, unless you are the President, maybe, calling it a hoax won’t be socially permissible.

    I wonder, too, how long the Secret Service lets him go out in public? Their job is to keep his ass alive and they might tell him NFW.

  39. 39.

    HalfAssedHomesteader

    What might (or might not) provide some comfort is if I could see what infection/mortality rates were predicted for H1N1 and SARS compared to how they actually panned out. Anyone?

  41. 41.

    Jim Parish

    @HyperSphericalCow: Apparently the “two months” refers to the length of the “epidemic wave”, not to the next two months – i.e., if the epidemic wave is two months long, then the overall number of US fatalities will be about 480K.

  42. 42.

    WereBear

    Mr WereBear and I are doubling upon our D3 since it was successfully used in Germany when they ran out of flu vaccine.

    Since the body’s ability to synthesize from sunlight declines with age. And we live in the Frozen North.

  43. 43.

    Comrade Mary

    Guys, while I think things are definitely bad and that a scenario like this is possible, this is one slide from one researcher’s presentation. It’s not a conclusion endorsed by the AHA. From Business Insider:

    As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his “best guess” estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US. … The slide does not give a particular time frame. The slide represents “his interpretation of the data available. It’s possible that forecast will change as more information becomes available,” a spokesman for Nebraska Medicine told Business Insider in an email.

    The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own.

  45. 45.

    germy

    @The Dangerman:  He’s not calling it a hoax.

    He’s calling criticism of his administration’s handling of the crisis a hoax.

    He admits he hasn’t touched his face in weeks. “I miss it,” he said.

  46. 46.

    germy

    Matt Gaetz made light of coronavirus by wearing a gas mask. Now one of his constituents has died. https://t.co/iqihtaFhCt
    — Jon Swaine (@jonswaine) March 7, 2020

    Matt Gaetz thought it would be funny to wear a giant gas mask on the House floor to mock the panic over the coronavirus pandemic. Now one of his own constituents has died. Idiots like this have no business taking up space in jobs meant for public servants. https://t.co/aDsbmZH0It
    — Jamil Smith (@JamilSmith) March 7, 2020

  47. 47.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Somebody upthread was asking something like this

  49. 49.

    Gvg

    I found supplies where other people said they had been out the day before. Stores are trying. They are all putting cleaning supplied and alcohol out front. They are clearly getting resupplied for now so i recommend checking again until you find what you want.

    I have spent a lot more than usual and so has my mom. Next is trying to stay home, cleaning things every day and mail order. Most grocery chains have online order and pickup. Certain parking spots designated and they bring it out to you. I have never done it but now i probably will soon.

  51. 51.

    Comrade Mary

    And Seth Bannon has corrected himself re “two months”:

    FYI after feedback from informed eyes, I believe the “epi wave 2 months” refers to the length of the “epidemic wave”, meaning these estimations are for total cases in the US, not just cases over next 2 months. Still quite disturbing. Thanks for helping clarify, all.

  52. 52.

    germy

    I’ve determined that Coronavirus doesn’t sound black enough to get the Republicans to take it seriously. But it’s a close thing. If we were fighting “Africanized Coronavirus,” we’d be preparing appropriately.

    But if it was Tyrone’s Virus they’d be ready to nuke Seattle.

    — Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) March 7, 2020

  53. 53.

    Martin

    So, morning dump:

    Italy locking down regions of the country needs to grab people’s attention more. Italy isn’t China. It’s a democracy. Italy is now working on protocols to deny people access to intensive care expecting they’ll run out of beds within the month. They’ll be denying access to their oldest patients.

    Last night I posted that EvergreenHealth up around Redmond has stopped community testing claiming the CDC has declared nCoV endemic in the population. That’s posted on their website. I’m not sure what to make of that. I can’t find any mention of that by CDC or Wash Public Health, but if that’s true, then the CDC has basically given up, and we don’t yet seem at the ‘give up’ stage. We may  reach such a point, but that should come along with travel restrictions, etc. to isolate that area.

    Stanford cancelled in-person classes with a diagnosis for one of their faculty. That’s basically the standard we all seem to be using – one confirmed case among students/faculty. Closing the campus fully will require spread among non-academic staff. There’s some added consideration for universities with attached hospitals. We’re one of those and we’re leaning toward closing the main campus faster than probably necessary so that we can steer resources to help the hospital, because holy shit they’re going to need it. Basically every university has students in quarantine. I can’t find any anywhere in the country that don’t.

    My take on the above estimate it both good and bad.

    The good is that generally modeling human populations requires factoring need feedback. We’re pretty good at feedback loops. People do change their behavior, even when you don’t want them to. So, the transmission spread will slow down the more epidemic-like this looks. That doesn’t mean the estimate  is totally wrong, it just means it’s a bit too fast. Of course, if we get serious non-medical remedies implemented, it’ll slow a lot more. So, I think that’s a very worst-case take.

    The bad is that there aren’t enough ICU and hospital beds for those numbers to hold. Like Italy is considering, we’ll start rationing ICU/ventilator beds long before that. Not sure how that’s going to go – does every care provider set a different standard?  Does every state? Am I hauling grandma at full speed over to Arizona so she can get a ventilator? Things get pretty ugly at that point. But that means the death rate will be quite a bit higher as we ration care.

    And this will be localized. I have a retirement/nursing home across the street from me – several, in fact, in a large sprawling complex that has grown over the years. There’s ~1,000 retirees there. If this sweeps through there, 40% will need a ventilator. I have two hospitals a mile down the street but they have nowhere near 400 ICU beds. Think of The Villages getting this. 51,000 retirees. 20,000 ICU beds. There aren’t that many in FL, GA, SC, AL, MS combined. Laguna Woods here in CA – 16,000 retirees. Sun City, etc.

    So if their infection rates are remotely close, their death rates will be much higher.

  54. 54.

    JMG

    China was able to contain the virus as well as it did because its authoritarian surveillance state was mobilized to the max to identify and isolate cases and because it was willing to basically shut down its economy to prevent the virus from spreading. I can’t imagine any American government, let alone one with Trump at the top, taking that latter step.

  55. 55.

    MattF

    @Comrade Mary: And I’ll just make the nerd-observation that exponential growth makes any prediction ill-conditioned. Which, in English, means hard to predict.

  57. 57.

    Ruckus

    @Gravenstone:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    I have to use eye drops almost every day. Have no idea, other than face washing regularly and never ever shake hands. I’m 70 and still work part time and go to the VA hospital 1-2 times a month on average. Have had a heart attack, and have neurological issues. Right now I’m in PT. Every 3 weeks, other appt on Monday. So I’m a high risk and have real possible exposure. I have no real idea how to actually protect myself except stay as far away from anyone as possible. So for now I’m driving to the VA rather than taking the train.

    On a better note, I went to the store last evening and stock seemed to be normal.

  59. 59.

    A Ghost To Most

    Best of luck to all in the coming unpleasantries.

    May you not run out of toilet paper.

  63. 63.

    satby

    Though obviously as a soapmaker I’m already a big fan of handwashing, try to remember if you use alcohol sanitizer that you need to use lots and get it around and under your fingernails to be effective (which is why soap and water tends to be better). Also, try not to panic about touching your face in your own home assuming you regularly wipe down surfaces with bleach water (one cup bleach per gallon of water in a spray bottle) or other disinfecting cleaner. The not touching your face is more important when out and about, and also when handling things handled by lots of other people, like cash.

    And remember, even for the over 80-somethings, the majority who get it will recover. Yes, it’s bad, but so is panic and stress, both of which can reduce immune system response slightly.

  67. 67.

    Fleeting Expletive

    My nightmare is what happens a few weeks from now, with widespread illness, crippled transportation industries, supply and banking freeze-ups.  If I become deathly ill, my daughter who lives many states away would not be able to get here.  If I died, maybe not even able to attend the funeral.

    On a happier note, since Wilmer has brought up dementia, Biden could propose that he and Wilmer and Trump take an IQ test together in the same hall at the same time.  Invite Warren.  Compare scores. Or a bar exam, or the test for grad school.   Announce the scores.

  68. 68.

    Gravenstone

    @Cheryl Rofer: If the damage were contained solely to the skeptics and disbelievers, I’d say more power to them. Let nature have its sorting and the rest of us can get on in a somewhat less toxic world. Unfortunately it’s not limited to them, so they’ll just continue to be an impediment to getting things under some semblance of control.

  70. 70.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Fleeting Expletive:

    On a happier note, since Wilmer has brought up dementia, Biden could propose that he and Wilmer and Trump take an IQ test together in the same hall at the same time. Invite Warren. Compare scores. Or a bar exam, or the test for grad school. Announce the scores.

    I love this idea very hard.

  71. 71.

    WereBear

    @Ruckus: here you go:

     

    Ultraviolet radiation (either from artificial sources or from sunlight) reduces the incidence of viral respiratory infections, as does cod liver oil (which contains vitamin D). An interventional study showed that vitamin D reduces the incidence of respiratory infections in children. Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly should proceed thus: in the first place to consider the seasons of the year …

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870528/

    For those who choose natural methods to prevent and treat the flu there are options:

    1. Vitamin D3- Flu epidemics tend to occur in the winter. Vitamin D levels in the population are much lower in the winter as well. Given that flu virus is seasonal, it is possible that vitamin D may be a factor that can affect the chances of getting the flu. According to the Vitamin D Council, if you get the flu you can safely take 50,000 IU/day for 5 days to fight off the infection. For those more interested in prevention a mid-range dose of 5000 – 8000 IU/day is a good starting point to maintain proper immune function. For children consider 35 IU per lb. of body weight as starting dose. If you are unsure of your Vitamin D levels, then have your health care provider test it. Make sure to take vitamin D with food.

    2. Sleep- Our bodies heals and repairs during sleep. Chronic sleep deprivation can raise stress hormones. This lead to a decrease in immune function.

    3. Exercise- 20 minutes, three times a week. A routine that increases circulation and generates a sweat is desirable. Exercise increases oxygen flow to our muscles and improves the function of your immune system.

    4. Probiotics- These beneficial organisms provide vital support to your immune system. These beneficial bacteria have a powerful effect on the immune system in your gut and your systemic immune system as well. Probiotics also protect against over-growth of other microorganisms that cause disease.

    These simple strategies can help keep you and your family healthy during the cold and flu season and ward off other common infections.

    https://dariningelsnd.com/flu-vitamin-d/

  72. 72.

    Gravenstone

    @JMG: I suggested yesterday that the US isn’t likely to get a handle on this until vaccines are widely available. Which means once again, an incoming Democratic administration will be dealing with a crisis from day one.

  74. 74.

    germy

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Ian Arthur Bremmer is an American political scientist specializing in U.S. foreign policy, states in transition, and global political risk. He is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm with principal offices in New York City and offices worldwide.

    Lord save us from the experts.

  76. 76.

    joel hanes

    Two-thirds of the entire Congress attended at least some part of the AIPAC convention which was held in DC earlier this week.

    Two of the attendees who returned to New York have fallen ill and have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2

  78. 78.

    germy

    deBlasio: NYC guaranteeing health care for all residents of NYC for Coronavirus, with insurance or without, documented or undocumented.— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) March 6, 2020

  79. 79.

    The Dangerman

    This is a tired thought (I’m on some special pills that just aren’t that special)…

    …but I’m tempted to hop the train for Seattle and roll the dice. Sure, I don’t want to get sick, but, if it’s coming, better to be an early person, because, at some point, there isn’t going to be enough hospital beds and whatever to go around. Hell, we done wiped out fucking hand sanitizer (in the tradional form; thanks to Adam, I have the recipe) and we are just in the opening act.

    I keep hearing self quarantine for 2 weeks, which gives me the expected incubation, but I never see a range for duration to recovery. If recovery, obviously.

  80. 80.

    germy

    Panic buying is a symptom of a dysfunctional society diseased with individualism

    To those with litres of soap at home- do you realize that to slow the transmission of COVID-19 you need other people to be cleaning their hands too?!

    A fortress of toilet paper will not protect you

    — Julia Simons (@SJimons) March 6, 2020

  81. 81.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @zhena gogolia:

    If you can even reduce it, it helps. And it helps to keep your hands clean. At least that’s what they tell me.

    It’s infinitely easier for me to wash my hands — every 10 minutes, if necessary — than it is to keep my hands away from my face. I’m forever brushing hair off my forehead, or shoving a pair of glasses up my nose.

    ETA: I didn’t say “up my nostrils,” so get that image right out of your mind!

  83. 83.

    Major Major Major Major

    just my two cents:

    Back of the envelope, extrapolating from 17 deaths, I’m guessing 6,000 infections in the wild right now. Minimum 2,000. Doubles every six days. Lots of people are going to get it; cat’s out of the bag.

    We need to focus on social distancing so we can spread the epidemic out over more time. France has banned all gatherings more than 5,000 people. (1,000 in Switzerland.) Cancel the festivals. Shut down transit. If we had the masks for it, making everybody wear one in public is something public health people adore, but we don’t have the masks for it.

    South Korea is reimbursing families $5,000 for childcare costs incurred due to school closures. If we had a real government we could do something like that. Offer x weeks of unemployment insurance-style payouts for people who can’t work from home. T-bills are at negative effective interest rates right now. A sane country would take advantage.

  84. 84.

    Kenneth Krasity

    Thanks. With a 7-10 day doubling period, the infections would double 6 to 9 times over the next two months. To get to 96,000,000 infections in two months, you have to start with 200,000 to 1,500,000 infections. I understand the official verified count of 401 is way low, but it’s not off by a of multiple of 500 to 3,700.

    @Comrade Mary:

  85. 85.

    Martin

    So, this might be something for Adam to weigh in on but the US is suffering from some serious decision paralysis from my own interactions.

    If you’re a university leader, when do you make the call to close? Someone needs to be first – but are you overreacting? Are you going to panic people? Are you making things worse?

    Consider the US Defcon levels: 5-1. They seem a little silly, but they’re a signaling tool. If you’re the leader of some backwater military facility what should your defensive posture be? Well, if we move from 5 to 4, you should tighten up your posture, even if there aren’t specific rules for doing so. It signals that you should take more severe measures. And then the move to 3 means more severe yet. That’s what leadership is – signaling how urgent our actions should be, and absent that, we 2nd guess, hedge, hold back. Our gut tells us to step up our actions, but we’re looking around for evidence that our gut is right and not seeing it (because everyone else is doing the same thing). UW and Stanford will encourage other institutions to move faster.

    This is what we’re lacking in government right now. The feds have completely abandoned this role. This is a big part of what ‘acting presidential’ is to me – signaling a national urgency. Governors can step in as needed, and they are, but again, it’s a bit uneven.

    So, epidemics happen because diseases spread invisibly and by the time you measure there are 10 sick people, and implement measures appropriate for 10 sick people, it turns out there are actually 50 sick people, and well, you think you’re on it, but you’re behind. So if decision makers are holding back  because of a lack of leadership, you’re basically guaranteeing failure.

    My job is as an advisor to those people. I know their inclination is to hold back. I know why. My job is to fight against that, to push for the more aggressive action, the one the data suggests we should be taking, to be the guy that appears to be overreacting. So this is a normal problem, but I’ve never seen it this bad before. It’s really bad.

  86. 86.

    Ruckus

    @WereBear:

    Thanks!

    I did look it up as to why I started in the first place. I try to get no sun  exposure as I am very susceptible to skin cancer, have had a number of things frozen off and see derm on a regular basis. Last time was the first ENTIRE body exam I’ve ever had. Nice lady doc.

    I also just doubled my daily dosage from 25 mcg to 50 mcg. About 5 min ago. This getting old stuff would suck if it wasn’t for the alternative.

  89. 89.

    Martin

    @Kenneth Krasity: Yeah. My guess is we’re around 5,000 infection now. Best measured doubling rate that I’ve seen is 6.4 days, but it doesn’t sustain at that level. Society adapt and the number changes – sometimes getting worse as front line workers are forced to work while sick (the Chernobyl scenario), but usually getting better as everyone just decides to stay home.

  91. 91.

    Matt

    What kind of trust is due the AHA? The price gouging American hospital do certainly makes me more skeptical.

  93. 93.

    Rommie

    I’m working the Election in Michigan on Tuesday, and I feel like I’m going to be on the front line in more ways than one.  It’s difficult to sanitize paper secrecy sleeves, paper registration forms, etc.  and of course it’s getting within sneezing distance of a lot of strangers.

  95. 95.

    zhena gogolia

    @Baud:

    My hopeful thought is that most people aren’t taking their cues from Twitler. They just ignore him. That’s why whenever I mention his latest outrage to my non-BJ friends they have no idea what I’m talking about — they just tune him out. So in this situation they’re NOT LOOKING TO HIM to figure out what to do. I think the empty Purell shelves a good sign that people are hearing the basic simple advice about washing their hands. This should slow the spread. TRYING TO BE HOPEFUL!

  98. 98.

    JPL

    @ema: For me the wipes would work.   Amazon has some but you have to be careful to understand what they are selling.   I’m going to try the eye wipes because that would sterilize the same.

  101. 101.

    The Dangerman

    @Major Major Major Major:

    On shutting down transit:

    I wonder how long Amtrak keeps the Coast Starlight up? Starts in Seattle (bad enough). With the Surfliner, hits all the population centers on the west coast. Can it get worse? Sure, it goes through every State Capitol on the west coast. Efuckinggads.

  102. 102.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    Huh. Just got an e-mail from Nordstrom saying (distilled out of all of the expected boilerplate) that they’re concerned about everyone’s health, they’re taking steps and their stores remain open. Steps include: more, and more rigorous, cleaning; hand sanitizer available to customers throughout the stores; and guidance for employees to stay home if they feel sick.

    I get promo e-mails from them almost every day because I bought a gift for a friend via mail order.

  103. 103.

    taumaturgo

    Far for me to diminish the current treat just though this tale could bring a bit perspective in that there is no escaping the inevitable.

    “The Appointment in Samarra”
    (as retold by W. Somerset Maugham [1933])The speaker is DeathThere was a merchant in Bagdad who sent his servant to market to buy provisions and in a little while the servant came back, white and trembling, and said, Master, just now when I was in the marketplace I was jostled by a woman in the crowd and when I turned I saw it was Death that jostled me.  She looked at me and made a threatening gesture,  now, lend me your horse, and I will ride away from this city and avoid my fate.  I will go to Samarra and over there Death will not find me.  The merchant lent him his horse, and the servant mounted it, and he dug his spurs in its flanks and as fast as the horse could gallop he went.  Then the merchant went down to the marketplace and he saw me standing in the crowd and he came to me and said, Why did you make a threating gesture to my servant when you saw him this morning?  That was not a threatening gesture, I said, it was only a start of surprise.  I was astonished to see him in Bagdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra.

  104. 104.

    Ruckus

    @Martin:

    You are always talking money when you do as you say. Your job is to  explain what, why and how, their job is how to pay for it. And money is always an issue. In the navy, in the last week of the fiscal year we would get the freedom to go to the navy base hardware store and spend all we needed/wanted because we had money in the yearly allotment and would lose that the next year if we didn’t spend it. The other 51 weeks a year you went without.

  107. 107.

    ziggy

    @Martin: Gov Inslee is working with the epidemiologists very hard on this. He’s been pretty forthcoming, saying that they are not quite ready to ban large gatherings, but are discouraging them at this point, and closely monitoring the right time to move forward with quarantine and social-distancing rules. I trust them to make the right decisions regarding this and let us know.

    I see making those decisions and communicating this effectively with the public as a very important function of government right now, of course one the federal government is failing miserably at. A large cork would improve their messaging tremendously.

  108. 108.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Martin: This was one of the things that I listed in my project management outline the other day. It’s essential to have leadership from the top on criteria for closing things down. I think it may also make a difference in allocating emergency aid.

    I doubt that President Trump knows that.

  109. 109.

    Martin

    Information from Life Care presser:

    • Residents on 2/19: 120
    • Transferred to hospital since 2/19: 54
    • Deaths since 2/19:  26
      • Hopsital Deaths: 15 (13 tested positive)
      • In Residence Deaths: 11 (no cause determined yet)
    • Current residents: 63
    • Residents showing symptoms:  6
    • In house test inventory: 45
    • Total staff on 2/19: 120
    • Staff showing symptoms: 70  (quarantined)

    These numbers are about what you’d expect from the data out of China. 45% hospitalization (a few of those were surely from other causes), 22% mortality rate (again, at least 2 cases look like unrelated). 60% of staff infected.

    And even though they’re the worst hotspot in the nation, they barely have enough tests.

  110. 110.

    zhena gogolia

    Our university has canceled all events involving speakers coming from abroad. My speaker is not happy with me. It wasn’t my decision. I hope he realizes that. I told him I think it’s dangerous to visit USA right now. He was unmoved.

  112. 112.

    Ruckus

    @WereBear:

    Well thank you!

    I don’t want to miss me either. I work hard as sustaining my health as best as I can. And I’m in better shape than a surprising number of citizens, even with my issues. Most of them are livable if you work at it and I do. I just started in a 5 yr research study with the VA because of my issues and my actual health make me a prime candidate. The study is to find ways to lessen cardiovascular issues in old farts. I’m hoping I’m not on the placebo but really any improvement is great.

  113. 113.

    Major Major Major Major

    I’m assuming my brother’s wedding in Mallorca in mid-May will be canceled, which is terrible, but hopefully they insured it… family isn’t talking about it though. One day at a time.

  114. 114.

    Martin

    Elk Grove Unified just closed all schools. It’s a large district in CA – about 60K students in a Sacramento suburb.

    Apparently they had a diagnosed parent of a student and they now have evidence of spread.

  115. 115.

    joel hanes

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Be nice if it were Gaetz or Nunes or Meadows.

    Be even better if it’s Grassley.

    No, I am no longer a good person, if I ever was.

  117. 117.

    Morzer

    @satby:

    Worth noting that, to break the outer lipid layer that contains the coronavirus, you either need to wash your hands with soap and water for 20 seconds (singing “Happy Birthday” twice gets you to roughly that amount of time) or use hand sanitizer that is at minimum 60% alcohol

    I’d also recommend carrying some gloves for use when opening doors or if you have to stand on the bus/subway and hold onto the strap

    Also: avoid Korean death cults.

  118. 118.

    Ruckus

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I don’t doubt what shit for brains knows. It’s zero.

    He either 100% doesn’t know, 100% doesn’t understand, or 100% doesn’t care. Those are the 3 choices with him on any issue.

  120. 120.

    Ruckus

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I’m scheduled to dog sit for a friend in May. She’s already bought her tickets to Cancun for her friends wedding. I’m not holding my breath that it happens or that she’ll be allowed to fly to Mexico.

  122. 122.

    Ruckus

    @joel hanes:

    I’m not sure that wishing this on them makes you a bad person. They bring zero value to the jobs they hold, actually less than zero, they are a negative cost center, in every sense.

  127. 127.

    Another Scott

    @satby: Is the “Announcement” on your Etsy page still accurate?  Or are you taking orders now?  (I’d worry that your market sales may dry up soon.  :-( )

    Let us know, please.  Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  128. 128.

    Ohio Mom

    I am reminded that Inslee was my first favorite candidate for the Democratic nomination. That didn’t last long, obviously.

    Like all the other oldsters here, I can only gulp when I mentally list all of Ohio Dad’s and my medical conditions.

    The last time I checked (this morning), there were no identified cases within 80 or so miles of Cincinnati (there is a case in Lexington, Kentucky), and none yet anywhere in Ohio.

    Is Ohio doing anything useful with this extra time fortune is giving us, of course not, we’re a Red State Grrrr…

  129. 129.

    Ruckus

    @Major Major Major Major:

    This is true.

    But so do far more of their victims. Life isn’t always fair or right, often is unequal in it’s positions and costs, but the goal is not to work for the worst possible outcome, and they do. They may not realize it, or they may want the WPO, but that’s what they are working towards.

  131. 131.

    Suzanne

    I mentioned on a previous thread that I have been through five American airports in the last week. I am being extra-conscious of not touching handrails, guardrails, support bars on trams, etc, and of course trying to be conscious of not touching my face.

    I’m getting freaked out about selling my house, though. I also have been trying to use everything up (food, TP, etc) so I don’t have anything to move…. I really don’t want to stock up. I’m wondering how much I really need to be concerned about leaving the house.

  132. 132.

    Morzer

    @Cheryl Rofer: That Tweet should read “…unfortunately, only one…”

    Still, we haven’t reached the end of the first quarter yet, so there’s always time for the coronavirus to raise its level of grifter-suppressing performance.

  134. 134.

    Darkrose

    @Martin: Just got an email from the Los Rios Community College chancellor; there’s an emergency meeting of district leadership tomorrow. Cosumnes River College is in Elk Grove. It’s the second-smallest school in the district, so they could probably close for a while and be okay. Not so sure about Sac City and American River, which are both in Sacramento proper.

  138. 138.

    J R in WV

     

    I would think that once the ICU beds are full and all the ventilator machines are in use, then everyone else who becomes seriously ill will just die.

    We are very fortunate to have a teaching hospital nearby, which fact saved wife’s life back in 2011 when she came down with asymptomatic pneumonia leading to septic shock. After about 10 weeks in the hospital, with nurses literally standing in her doorway to keep patients with potential infectious diseases from being placed in her room, they discharged her, still with a chest tube to drain her from lung surgery.

    But if you show up at the ER with a terrible blood oxygen level, and all their ICU beds and vents are already in use, what can they do to help? Not much.

  139. 139.

    Princess Leia

    I live in a house that cooks and serves meals to homeless people and provides a place to stay for about 25 ladies, mostly over 50 yo. We have a lot of people from the community, mostly retirees and teens doing service hours, who come in to cook and serve. What do you all think would be the right time to stop the serving? Most likely the infection would come from the helpers, but the vulnerability on both sides is high. I talked to County Public Health and they had no advice for anyone working in this situation.  Obviously not serving food has a big impact on those on the street. And my 70 yo husband has a long list health issues….

  140. 140.

    Bill Arnold

    @Old Dan and Little Ann:

    If I was offered a million dollars to go a day without touching my face I would fail within minutes. Or be stark raving mad by the end.

    How about this:
    This Website Yells at You Every Time You Touch Your Stupid Face – If you’re trying to stop touching your face to keep from spreading coronavirus, being shamed by a website might help. (Samantha Cole, Mar 5 2020)
    To begin your re-training, Donottouchyourface.com records a couple seconds of your webcam and you sit, agonizingly, not touching your face. Then it asks you to touch all over your face for a few seconds. This is to train a Tensorflow algorithm, according to the website, so it can recognize when you’re touching your dumb mug with your virus-coated fingers.

    Or for the adventurous with strong stomachs, how about this:
    For Those Of You Paranoid About Touching Your Face, Choke Down This Disgusting Face Fact (Cass Anderson, 2020/03/06)

    Surely there can’t be thousands of skin mites having sex every night on top of your face every night after you spent so many years as a virgin?
    …Demodex face mites got their name from the Greek words for “fat” and “boring worm,” but they’re not really worms at all. They’re actually arachnids — related to ticks and, more distantly, to spiders.

    Or for the more mundane, the mainstream press finally has an article mentioning the smelly-hands approach to training out face touching:
    How to Stop Touching Your Face (Jenny Gross, March 6, 2020)
    Using scented soap or lotion could also help, said Zach Sikora, a clinical psychologist at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago. When you bring your hands close to your face, that smell could make you more aware of your actions.

    Oh, and some meta-analyses suggest strongly that vitamin D deficiency substantially increases the risk of respiratory infections.
    Probably worth remedying with supplements.
    Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections (JANUARY 2019, pdf)
    We also showed that vitamin D had greater protective effects when it was given daily or weekly to people with the lowest vitamin D levels: the risk of having at least one ARI was reduced from 60% to 32% in these individuals

  143. 143.

    Ruckus

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I don’t believe they ever will. They are all in on that they are the only answer going forward. And yet they really aren’t good a the evil. They manage once in a while to do shitty stuff but good at it? Not really. So they will only succeed by luck in their favor. And the rest of us outnumber them.

    I understand about not wishing ill on others. It’s a fine line to tread, these people are your mortal enemies. You may not want to fight them (figuratively speaking) but they want to destroy you. How do you square that?

  144. 144.

    Another Scott

    @joel hanes:

    RollCall (from Friday):

    […]

    The email, obtained by CQ Roll Call from a House aide, stressed there have been no confirmed cases of coronavirus and no pending coronavirus tests for anyone currently working on Capitol Hill.

    Staff on Capitol Hill have been concerned about the illness reaching their workplace for a few weeks, but the Thursday night announcement of three confirmed COVID-19 cases in Montgomery County, Maryland, where many staffers live, only raised anxiety levels.

    [Lawmakers looking for guidance on coronavirus]

    The email reiterated guidance on establishing continuity of operations plans that “allow offices to consider the actions and resources needed to continue to operate” in the event of an outbreak.

    “Important note: COOP is particularly pertinent to District Office staff,” reads the email. “We advise that offices ensure your district staff are up-to-date on any office policies, as well as make sure district staff have the necessary equipment they need to telework.”

    Offices are scrambling to make sure they have the equipment to facilitate telework, including laptops, cell phones and tablets that are able to connect to the House’s network remotely. Training employees, accustomed to working on desktop computers in their offices, will need to learn to use the software and programs necessary to connect from home.

    The email signals significant investments were made to prepare the House for a potentially massive expansion of telework for House staffers.

    “The [House Chief Administrative Officer] has ordered 1000 laptops that will be imaged and available for purchase through the normal procurement process should your office require new technology,” the email said.

    [House issues guidance for staffers amid coronavirus concerns]

    House Administration Committee Republicans said additional information will be sent to GOP chiefs of staff, staff directors and district staff about the process for paying for the additional equipment needed to implement continuity of operations plans, technology assistance and an upcoming meeting of Republican chiefs of staff on coronavirus preparations.

    The email alerted staffers to increased frequency of cleaning and sanitizing services by Architect of the Capitol staff, and asked staffers to help in the effort.

    “We encourage your office to do your part and maintain good disinfecting practices to keep your office clean and safe for your member, staff, and potential visitors,” it reads.

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer all met Wednesday about how to ensure continual operation of Congress as the virus spreads.

    (Emphasis added.)

    It’s good they’re starting to act, but they should have started weeks ago…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  145. 145.

    Ruckus

    @Bill Arnold:

    The smelly hands thing doesn’t work for everyone.

    I have no sense of smell left. Zero. My shit actually doesn’t stink zero. If you have a bad cold you might approach the level of my ability to sense smells. And a bad cold has scents of it’s own. I can’t smell those. I may not be normal but I’m not alone with this deficit.

  147. 147.

    Jess

    I need to rant about my sister for a minute. She lives with our elderly mother. Both of them have health problems and compromised immune systems. My mother cannot take flu shots because of allergy. My sister REFUSES to get a flu shot because she “might” have an allergy–but has she gotten tested to see if that’s true? Of course not. Now I just called her to let her know I’m making home-made hand sanitizer for all three of us (b/c the stores are all out, natch), and she states that she will not use it because she “doesn’t like the way it feels.” I tell her she needs to up her game on such preventative measures now that she’s living with mom, but she sneers that the corona virus is no worse than flu (which is bad enough for someone like my mother) and it’s all media hype, yadda yadda yadda. I’ve just sent her a bunch of links, which she had better read. What a selfish brat she is sometimes. She’s generally a good, kind, generous person, but can be incredibly stubborn about taking common sense measures in too many areas in life. If that’s how she wants to live, fine–but not when she’s endangering our mother. /rant

  148. 148.

    debbie

    @WereBear:

    I’ve been taking elderberry syrup since last fall to help out my immune system. Suddenly, the shelves are empty everywhere. At Target even!

  149. 149.

    debbie

    @germy:

    Actually, he’s being even worse: He’s more worried about his “numbers” than he is about dying and dead people.

  151. 151.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @germy:

    Panic buying is a symptom of a dysfunctional society diseased with individualism

    Disagree. What I’m seeing is (a) people who never use sanitizer or wash their hands trying to get supplies so they can start doing so and (b) a lot of us trying to make sure that if there’s a local emergency, we can stay out of everyone’s way because we don’t need to buy at the last minute. There’s also the worries about the supply chains breaking down; I think those of us who know how the supply chains operate are more worried than the people for whom things just appear mysteriously at the stores.

  159. 159.

    Suzanne

    @catclub: Apparently those areas have a much-higher-than-average percentage of old people.

    i am worried because a friend of mine who is living with HIV and who works for a major airline was just in Milan two weeks ago. Then he was in Las Vegas last week. So far, he is showing no symptoms. May that continue.

  160. 160.

    Bill Arnold

    @Morzer:
    Got it right, whew and ugh. Going to google.com and seeing what autocomplete suggests for “stockpiling ” is fun. For my vpn endpoint at least, “stockpiling moms” is number 2. :-)

  161. 161.

    Bill Arnold

    @Ruckus:

    I have no sense of smell left. Zero. My shit actually doesn’t stink zero.

    I have a friend like that; it happened during adulthood; don’t recall why. Have you found any other way to stop face touching that works for you?

    I’m in the middle, and my father was a super-smeller; he could smell Germans as a WWII infantryman; smelled an ambush once that would have killed his platoon.

  163. 163.

    Ruckus

    @Bill Arnold:

    Well not talking and not thinking about not touching helps……

    A lot of this is psychological. Told not to do something, many humans now think about whatever it was non stop, making it much more difficult not to do whatever. I’m one of those humans.

  164. 164.

    Martin

    @Darkrose: American River and Cosumnes both had quarantined students early on who had interacted with a  diagnosed person. Not sure how their tests turned out, but those were the first quarantined students in the US.

    (I’ve had the pleasure of visiting nearly every CCC).

  165. 165.

    Ksmiami

    @joel hanes: I pretty much think the world will be a better place if Republicans die off so I guess I used to be a good person, but now I really don’t care-do you?

  171. 171.

    PaulWartenberg

    I’m running into pro-trump people here in Florida who are shrugging off the 2 percent-3 percent death rate, of the likelihood of the count going up to 6 million people, as acceptable losses.

    try telling that to any loved one you got in the risk zones.

  172. 172.

    catclub

    @Bill Arnold: I have a friend like that; it happened during adulthood;

     

    I know a guy who lost his sense of smell from a bike -car wreck. He was on the bike.

  174. 174.

    Darkrose

    @Martin: SCC had two students quarantined; they’d had contact with the UCDMC case. All four LRCCD students tested negative, according to the email we got a couple days ago.

  175. 175.

    Matt McIrvin

    @PaulWartenberg: They may feel differently once it starts ripping through the Villages–it’s a 2-3 percent death rate, but double digits for people over 70.

    And a lot more people than that are going to get seriously ill. I hear way too much talk that implies that everyone who isn’t killed is going to be just fine. You try spending weeks on a ventilator.

  176. 176.

    Flea, RN

    @Martin:

    And this will be localized. I have a retirement/nursing home across the street from me – several, in fact, in a large sprawling complex that has grown over the years. There’s ~1,000 retirees there. If this sweeps through there, 40% will need a ventilator. I have two hospitals a mile down the street but they have nowhere near 400 ICU beds. Think of The Villages getting this. 51,000 retirees. 20,000 ICU beds. There aren’t that many in FL, GA, SC, AL, MS combined. Laguna Woods here in CA – 16,000 retirees. Sun City, etc.

    the grand total of ICU beds in the US is in the neighborhood of 90,000; about half of those are staffed for Medical patients, as opposed to Trauma, Neuro, Cardiac, etc…

    Keep in mind that an “ICU bed” is more than a room – you need Intensivist Dr’s, specially trained RN’s, Respiratory Therapists, special equipment like Ventilators etc.. China brought in 40,000 providers from around the country to assist in Wuhan, and Italy is graduating nurses a year only to meet the demand in Lombardia.

    Also, these people are contagious. If intubated, much more so. My hospital (about 200 beds, with an 8 bed ICU) has 3 total beds that are “negative pressure” – i.e., they vent to the outside to isolate extremely contagious patients (think TB).

    This is the reason that China built outdoor “hospitals” – if you pack the hospitals with contagious people, it gets hard to do things like dialysis, chemotherapy, elective surgery, etc… They could use these “hospitals” to place the contagious people, and there are still significant knock on effects on chronically sick people.

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