"least 15 deaths have been reported..//..Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have reported at least 164 confirmed cases, while news reports say cases have surged close to 300"
-feels like China's early numbers were a lot more reliable than US ones.https://t.co/W5xt8wgTWh
— ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ ????? (@MackayIM) March 7, 2020
Hosted by @ArunRath, "Coronavirus: A Community Conversation" will feature expert medical insight from @BhadeliaMD, @lmadoff and @HealthyBoston's Jennifer Lo at @museumofscience.
Stream the discussion live via @ForumNetwork Sunday at 3:30pm → https://t.co/3F7BSPiGVe
— WGBH (@wgbh) March 6, 2020
It's beginning to feel like posting China's new #Covid19 numbers doesn't make a lot of sense, given how much spread there is in so many other places.
However, I'll do it today.
99 new cases, 28 deaths.
80561 total cases, 3070 deaths, 55404 recovered. pic.twitter.com/cfoxOOr0Wz
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 7, 2020
The S Korean govt is offering "emergency child care" to parents dealing with the double challenge of school closures and work-at-home policies. The govt will compensate business owners about $5,000 for every employee for flexible work. https://t.co/feAJYDTaFT
— T.K. of AAK! (@AskAKorean) March 6, 2020
G-20 nations pledge to “take further actions” to aid the world economy amid mounting fears the coronavirus is dragging it toward a recession https://t.co/qMnk8Mtqya
— Bloomberg (@business) March 7, 2020
Hubei reported on Friday no new infections outside its capital, Wuhan. Big q’s about data reporting & transparency remain. If true, it is a steep decline from a few weeks ago when they were reporting 1000+ new coronavirus cases per day. https://t.co/tLcSnqtLIY
— Amy Qin (@amyyqin) March 6, 2020
It will get better after awhile. One of my friends in China just went back to work at her hotel. I asked if there were any guests. She replied, “Yes, some people who dare to die.” https://t.co/RsWBayHIXN
— Matthew Stinson (@stinson) March 7, 2020
More signs #China wants to return to normal. Schools to start reopening next week. Qinghai province to stagger start dates from Mar 11 to 20. Guizhou province says schools to reopen Mar 16. (These areas very few cases of #coronavirus.)
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 6, 2020
Useful thread. Troubling. Completely in line with the view that the core focus of Chinese information operations, unlike Russian focus on disruption is (1) refuting international criticisms of China and (2) presenting China in the best possible light. https://t.co/6RYz0BOSsO
— James Mulvenon (@jmulvenon) March 5, 2020
I covered SARS in 2003 & marveled at the speed at which the science of a brand new pathogen evolved. #Covid19 is like that, on steroids.
So much has been learned in such a short time. So much more needs to be fleshed out. I talked to @mvankerkhove. https://t.co/UEC6xuiFEs
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 6, 2020
Based on exported cases to other countries, Italy may have had about 4000 #COVID19 cases by end of Feb, rather than the 1100 that were reported, suggesting about 70% of cases went undetected. More great analysis by @AshTuite and co https://t.co/CI4dENGlyr
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) March 6, 2020
Thank you to the @BBCWorld News for allowing me to explain on-air why it is essential that we take all available measures to #slowthespread of #COVID19 #coronavirus, even we cannot contain it entirely at this point. pic.twitter.com/xk1Go2chPg
— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) March 7, 2020
Thanks to @B_resnick for chatting about how the #coronavirus outbreak might play out (with the obvious caveat: no one knows!) https://t.co/fysUigruGp
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 7, 2020
Researchers from @UmeaUniversity say that, with hindsight, allowing passengers aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship to disembark could have prevented more cases of coronavirus. ? https://t.co/STpHPimldl #COVID19 #cruiseship #coronaviruscruiseship
— Medical News Today (@mnt) March 4, 2020
This is also a really good example of "flattening the curve." St. Louis had a more extended outbreak, but think of this today–even if outbreak goes on longer, that means turnover in hospital beds over time rather than sudden surge & running out of beds & ventilators & supplies. https://t.co/xXUs7Ic6vq
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 6, 2020
Ok, putting something together for this. Stay tuned! https://t.co/K0TDXP0onW https://t.co/2kd6FlmA0V
— Melissa Vaught (@biochembelle) March 6, 2020
A doctor in Victoria, Australia has tested positive to #SARSCoV2. He appears to have been infected in the US and travelled to Denver, Vale, SF & LA.
Not only are travel bans ineffective, especially as we see widespread transmission, they can give a false sense of safety. https://t.co/aWojiDut7k
— Dr Alexandra Phelan (@alexandraphelan) March 7, 2020
This is a very thoughtful take on the #Covid19 situation from @SueDHellmann. In conversation with @matthewherper. Worth your time. https://t.co/mlZuId18q6
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) March 6, 2020
"Just last week, eight passengers who later tested positive for COVID-19 arrived in Shanghai from Italy and passed the airport screeners unnoticed, for example." The lowdown on airport screening impact. Spoiler alert: More theater? https://t.co/yhP9EWskSF pic.twitter.com/omsNXturD4
— Jon Cohen (@sciencecohen) March 6, 2020
My latest @SELFmagazine on #coronavirus testing: who can get tested? What does it cost? What does it entail? Note this might change tomorrow!-ppl eligible for testing per CDC guidelines changed in the middle of writing it because things are still so messy. https://t.co/7le2a7rGqP
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 7, 2020
Hey @JoyceLauNews; there are a number of great Twitter lists of #COVID19 experts (a few of which I’m on). If anyone in my network has one, feel free to pitch it in replies. My personal recs include @aetiology, @mugecevik, @rocza, @SaskiaPopescu, @angie_rasmussen, & @angeldesaimd. https://t.co/oxBf0MCJOd
— Dr. Maia Majumder (@maiamajumder) March 7, 2020
Real data: OK fist bumps, NO handshakes #COVID19@TheEconomist @ECONdailycharts pic.twitter.com/ybJxyStRtA
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 6, 2020
We are so well and truly fucked.
Oh, it’s going to be a horror show. Any crisis now would be, but this will be particularly bad.
Online classes began this week – absolute goddamn nightmare. No one had set up for this, of course, so we’ve had to hastily set the thing up from scratch. University insists on using this app with which I have no experience and which does not feature English instructions. The low-level classes are going to be next to impossible – we’re talking 150-200 students, who don’t possess materials (I didn’t get anything until Wednesday, about 2 hours before a class) and whom I can’t pair off. All you can do in this format is a lecture, which won’t work with them.
I suppose this format doesn’t bother locals too much, as that’s pretty much what education in China looks like, minus the physical presence. One wonders how a nice upper-middle class couple – you know, one of the ones who thinks that our schools should be more like China’s – would react if a teacher walked into their little dear’s classroom, recited a lecture by rote without any engagement at all and then unceremoniously left. Probably the same way Chinese parents react if you do anything but give a lecture, I suppose.
It’s easier with the higher-level students, the ones working on IELTS material. You give them an assignment and after that they’re pretty self-guided. A lot of the essays I’m getting back are, naturally, inclining toward the weirdness of the moment. Maybe I get one with some ruminations on how a boring Spring Festival is actually nostalgic; maybe I get one on how our present circumstances are proving the limits of communications technology.
Coronavirus: a disease that thrives on human error
FTFNYT: Why a Coronavirus Recession Could Be Extra Painful: Its Suddenness
Thank you for pulling all this information from the internet and putting it in one place.
I’m in WA state. Our state ‘s Governor is hated by Trump which means Jay Inslee is doing an excellent job.
Trump ‘s screams – how dare people get sick. I’ve been reading that the lack testing for the Coronavirus has been deliberate – by the Trump political appointee.
But this is a fundamentally wrong economy. Too many people are far too close to the edge, and when they fall, so does the economy. How can they keep up with mortgage/rent? What about the people who have no parents’ basement to retreat to? The sudden loss of lots and lots of paychecks?
Sixty years of Republican dominance has guaranteed a giant slice of the population who have no safety net for their lives OR their contributions to that precious economy that is so obviously all they care about.
Their fortunes are in the imagination of computers, not in anything real. That’s why they are so frantic to prop up the stock market. But with travel taking such a giant hit, how can that possibly work?
Well, it’s finally here in Ky – our Dem Gov announced it yesterday. Said the patient is in isolation at the UK Med Ctr. If the patient is who I think it is, or contracted it from them, they came back to a neighboring town two weeks ago from Hong Kong, where they had been living for several years. She is probably in her forties, and brought her three kids with her. We’ll see if they passed it on to the locals over the next couple weeks I guess…
@WereBear: 2 things: First, my opinion of Republican economic policy is pretty close to yours, but they aren’t asking either of us. 2nd, he notes,
Time will tell which is right, and right now Wall Street isn’t buying what trump and the GOP is selling.
And I would add that the “good” employment numbers touted every month are misleading. Yes, people are employed, but too many of them are working shit jobs—or multiple shit jobs—trying to keep their heads above water. And with few or no benefits and hours trimmed so that they don’t qualify for benefits or health insurance.
The rosy outlook is fake.
Article: “The shorter the impact, the easier it will be for the economy to go back to its (quite good) pre-virus functioning.”
Just want to pound the point again that the economy is not working very well for a lot of people.
Has Trump awarded your governor the coveted “snake” badge yet?
So this is what a laissez-faire approach to public health looks like. I said this below, but I think it’s true. At some point, and we are probably past that point, the focus is going to turn to keeping vulnerable people safe, not requiring less vulnerable populations to isolate themselves. It’s a good idea to limit major conferences, concerts, and large gatherings. I’m just not sure it makes sense to close schools. If you are vulnerable, and I am on the cusp, act accordingly no matter what you are being told about the risk of transmission. The risk of transmission is very evidently high. I read the Washington Post report of the Trump CDC visit and press conference yesterday and I had to keep reminding myself throughout that I was not reading The Onion. It was truly shocking.
Precisely. The “resilience” has been scooped out of giant sectors of the economy, as in people who can’t take the slightest setback without collapsing. If we had a healthy population: both in body and bank account, it would be different.
But, by design, we do not.
@Steeplejack: No disagreement, but (there’s always a ‘but,’ isn’t there?) do economists care? I don’t think so. In my experience we are all just so much cannon fodder.
The CDC’s COVID-19 numbers represent a systematic undercount. They admit as much on their own website:
“State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.”
Right now CDC has 164. The Johns Hopkins site has double — 338. Fine, but no one should be using the CDC numbers. Which is quite a thing to say.
So if you – say – worked at a tech company in the Seattle area and – just to throw out a random comment – one of your coworkers who sits right near you called in sick for “flu like symptoms,” how much would you be thinking about it?
I don’t think we’ve actually been in the office on the same day for a few weeks and I moved to a different floor last weekend anyway, but I’m trying to make jokes instead of freaking :)
The purpose of the CDC #s, the only purpose in fact, is to give trump and the GOP a talking point. Come October they will be repeating the CDC #s on the campaign trail ad nauseum as a way to say, “See? Even the CDC says we fixed it/it wasn’t that bad.”
Bank on it.
@zzyzx: Ugh. How old are you? Do you have any chronic or respiratory problems? Can you work from home? At a minimum, I would be especially vigilant about washing hands and not touching your face or other people. I would try to work from home if possible, maybe for the next week. If we had anything like a sane public health response I would tell you to get tested. But that’s probably not feasible at this point.
So, has anyone heard whether we won all our trade wars?
Trump weakened the economy, world wide. Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
The Trump administration seems to be determined to make all the mistakes we saw at the start of this pandemic. Silencing medical professionals, like China did in it’s early days, and insisting on confining thousands of passengers on a cruise ship, maximizing the odds that it becomes a breeding ground for the virus, like Japan did. Add to that the happy talk that the virus is contained, while bragging that Trump is doing a great job because there are only
15, 25, 60, 99, 205, over 300 confirmed cases, mostly in ‘dirty’, ‘immigrant-infested’ states with Democratic governors. All while pretending the number of confirmed cases isn’t artificially low because very few people have been tested yet.
Early 50s, no but I am technically a diabetic (I control it through an insane commitment from exercise), and our company has been on a mandated WFH until further notice call since Thursday.
I’m less worried about me than potentially being a carrier and wanting to self quarantine if I am, but I have no way of getting tested so…
So, it’s just make a joke of it.
Consider them won.
Trump Says Coronavirus Will Help the Economy by Stopping All Travel
I’m concerned that we haven’t heard from our faithful correspondent in China, YY_Sima Qian for several days. I hope they are okay. YY_Sima Qian, if you see this, know that we are thinking of you and wishing you and your fellow citizens well.
@Jinchi: THAT PISSES ME OFF SO MUCH!!!!
Sorry, but while seeing my entire city get shut down and seeing the damage it’s likely to do to our economy, it gets so frustrating to see Trump try that line of reasoning
@Jinchi: Ha! I bet if someone asked Trump that, he would claim victory.
We were guaranteed incompetence and inability to learn, and he’s going to keep ALL those promises.
“Father, in the name of Jesus, You have promised we have all authority, not some authority! You have promised that we are seated with You in heavenly places, so we take Throne Room authority, and we bring that into the situation of the coronavirus, and we say in the name of Jesus, ‘Virus, you are illegal! This is God’s Earth!’” – Self-proclaimed prophetess Cindy Jacobs.
Rupert Beale at LRB This is informative, concise, clear. “Rupert Beale is a Clinician Scientist Group Leader at the Francis Crick Institute.”
He also mentions funding, a little history, China and SK’s actions vs Iran and US. Problems for low- and mid-income countries, and the US lack of socialized health care.
@Aleta: 2/2 from LRB. Rupert Beale is a Clinician Scientist Group Leader at the Francis Crick Institute.
From his conclusion:
@OzarkHillbilly: There was a Bloomberg headline that :
This seems crazy to me. You look at China stopping for at least a month – damage to supply chain that will start affecting industry when the ships that should have been loaded in february finally arrive two months late -, plus all conferences cancelled in the US, plus people less willing to go out to restaurants, and that sure spells recession to me.
The airlines are already being hammered. people see very very short security lines at airports already. Hands up if you are going to book a cruise because they will be really cheap.
I’m an investor and I see recession as virtual certainty. Why didn’t they ask me?
What the Fuck hours?
I just saw a work e-mail that said incoming and outgoing foreign travel is now cancelled until further notice. It’s good and reasonable as far as it goes, but it seems kinda like closing the barn doors after the horses are in the next county. (There have been noises in the news about countries refusing entry of travelers from the USA…)
As Martin was yelling earlier, we need to get in front of this, not react 2 weeks late. (sigh)
@catclub: His question is not whether there will or will not be a recession so much as a long one or a short one, which depends on how much damage is done in the short term..
“Work from home,” I presume. Apologies if you were just joking.
Good to hear from you Andrew, sounds like you are doing well considering. I’m also anxious to hear from YY Sima Qian.
I’m actually feeling a bit more optimistic today about the situation here in the PNW. Testing ability is ramping up quickly. UW virology says they can do 1,000 tests a day, results in 8 hours. As more labs bring tests online, we will have a much better idea of what is actually going on and how to contain it, as well as who should quarantine. And our local leadership seems to be honest and competent. It’s not going to be easy, but I think we can figure this out.
this is such a good way of putting it.
it’s like some crappy movie where the government screws up every possible response to a pandemic crisis and you’re rolling your eyes at it. well, i guess those type of movies are much more believable now.
With William Atherton playing POTUS.
Yes, it’s true. This man has no dick.
I am confused by the statistics and the math. The morbidity rate has varied between 1.5% and 3.5%. Doing a reverse calculation based on the number of deaths, 15 deaths would indicate 1000 cases if rate of death is 1.5% and 428 cases if 3.5%. Are my numbers skewed or are they underreporting the total number of cases?
@ziggy: Next Trump will have a breakdown and start yelling “snake, snake, snake” until he is carried off somewhere. The press will act as if this is normal behavior.
We are lucky in the Pacific northwest. We have a good governor and brilliant scientists. Plus UW (U dub) has research scientist working hard on understanding this covid-19.
has anyone heard of ships from China docked at one of the many sea ports in WA? Around 7 weeks ago?
We need testing for this virus at all the Urgent Care clinics. There are lots of these semi ER walk in clinics in nearly every county. Free testing needs to stay asap.
Can the CDC and FDA be ignored? Their dictate of testing only a narrowly defined group of people (linked directly to China) when the first cases had no known links to China has blocked testing.
I’m trying to keep informed because I’m in a high risk category. Age, heart, and lungs. My last check in with my primary care doctor was over the phone. In the little town south of my location there are at least 3 walk in clinics. We are all a short ferry ride from Seattle or a longer drive down to Tacoma. Convid-19 is marching along.. Outward from the first contact. This is rather like the spreading of arrow making skills ect tracked by Anthropologists. Or grinding of brain etc.
@zzyzx: my husband was working in one of the many buildings he goes to to work on PCs a couple days ago. Talked casually to one of the guys at the next desk. Goes back next day and buy is out “Hey where’s the dude?” On he got sent home to self quarantine, he just got back from Italy. ..
@Barb 2: last sentence – spreading knowledge of grinding grain. The spell checker is so much fun!
@NamekarB: At the moment they (mostly) know the numerator – the number of deaths. But they don’t know the denominator (the number of infections). So, they’re using death rates from elsewhere where the denominator is better known (or suspected).
Your implication is correct – there are many, many more people infected than they have identified, because they haven’t tested enough people in the US yet.
At least that’s what inference tells us. It seems impossibly unlikely that they have identified and tested everyone infected in the US…
Really good real time visual view of the global state of the epidemic.
@NamekarB: 19 deaths. 1 more in WA and 2 in Florida.
Total of 16 in WA, 1 in CA, 2 in FL
@Barb 2: I have some chick on Twitter insisting that no one is being tested. She says that they have just decided that it’s everywhere in WA and no testing is being done.
Meanwhile, UW has developed a test that turns around in 8 hours, and the lab will process over a thousand per day, working 24 hours, with 3 shifts.
I’ll post more once we get a new suitable thread, but I’m really struggling to process the one report I’ve seen that they’ve stopped community testing in Kings County. That was a direct report from a care provider that CDC declared that nCoV was endemic in the general population, so it’s a statement of policy, but I’m looking for any reinforcement of that from the CDC or other sources.
If that’s true, and there is no efforts being made to limit travel in and out of that region, then effectively the CDC has given up and it’s going to spread uncontrolled. So, anything people see on that front would be appreciated.
@opiejeanne: This is what EvergreenHealth has posted on their site:
This is community testing – clinics. They’re still testing in hospitals. I’ve not seen anything from the CDC to confirm that they believe it’s endemic there, so I don’t know what to make of this.
@Martin: sound like the political appointee is protecting Trump.
testing is needed – so those with covid-19 can be identified and isolated.
On that Johns Hopkins tally board; Mainland China has been stuck on 80,652 cases since about February. Now isn’t that amazing! Over a billion people; and not a single one caught the disease in the last week! I think the odds of that being true are on par with a raindrop never falling in the Amazon…what a propaganda planet!
Point being; China stopped testing anyone quite some time ago; as well as filing “reports”; they know it out of control and thus pointless to do so. I actually agree with them here; better to spend time and resources on treatment.
This is the exact reason the Spanish Flu totals are nothing but the roughest of guesses and estimates; “between 50 and 100 million dead”.
That is quite an inexact potential spread; and the same will be true when the dust settles with the 2020 pandemic.
@Martin: Thanks. I got that email fromEvergreen because they are our healthcare providers.
That they’re still testing at the hospitals is good news, and the first notice I got from evergreen was that the testing would be done at the hospital. Also, they don’t want sick people to just show up at the walk-in clinic, they want them to phone the facility and get instructions on what to do/where to go.
Evergreen is not the greatest healthcare group around, and Kaiser just arrived about 2 years ago. We are considering switching to them next year because this not testing stuff is BS.
@Barb 2: absolutely, we need testing.
Here’s the Google cache of that message.
Like you, I can’t see anything else on the web that says the CDC has declared the coronavirus endemic to Washington. (I spent some time looking around the CDC site just now.) Maybe they’ve done so privately, but it’s weird that it’s only on that particular website.
150 tourists and local crew on a Nile cruise ship are quarantined at Luxor. 45 have tested positive.
@Another Scott: Isn’t that odd? I wonder who owns Evergreen, who is on the board of directors.
@NamekarB: They’re under-testing and the case numbers are understated as a result. But deaths are harder to hide.
Trump doesn’t even care that his own statements are inconsistent: he states his hunch that the mortality rate is really far below 1%, but if that’s true, then the known numbers of deaths imply a far larger number of infections.