VIRUS HUNTERS: @DrJAshton reports on the scientists working in the field to identify new viruses, like the COVID-19, determine how they spread and help stop outbreaks from happening. #ABC2020 https://t.co/IXpLJk5lbq pic.twitter.com/Yfs95tPZMZ
— 20/20 (@ABC2020) March 7, 2020
In the Atlantic, “How to Misinform Yourself About the Coronavirus: Even if you avoid the conspiracy theories, tweeting through a global emergency is messy, context-free, and disorienting”:
… Most Americans cannot read Chinese, nor are they present in large numbers on Chinese social-media sites such as Weibo and WeChat. The internet has fractured over the past decade, with American and Chinese social-media companies carving up distinct parts of the world. While that makes it difficult for many Americans to parse what’s happening on Chinese social media, it also creates an opportunity for people who are tapped in on both sides. They can arbitrage from the Chinese to the American internet, turning WeChat videos into Twitter gold. Accounts big and small have whipped up quite an apocalyptic fervor in the past weeks, posting scary videos of dubious provenance and veracity. The mainstream media has proceeded carefully, and reporters’ stories have seemingly been unable to satiate the rising hunger for more information about coronavirus…
After talking to several friends, I realize many ppl still aren't prepared for the societal impacts of coronavirus. Want to dedicate a thread about what I observed in Chinese society, and what you should be mentally prepared for. It goes beyond the disease itself:
— Tony Lin (@tony_zy) March 7, 2020
Some extracts from a long, but IMO important, thread:
1.Trauma. As @MariaRepnikova said, it’s the 1st global epidemic in the era of social media & live-streaming. If the outbreak gets worse, you WILL have extremely helpless moments, witnessing ppl seeking help and some die in a way closer than ever. I saw hundreds online already..
2. Hospital overcapacity. A massive outbreak can strain local medical system. Do u know in China, Wuhan has the second-most medical professionals per 1000 ppl, and the most top tier hospital per 10000 ppl? And w/o sufficient intensive care, coronavirus is far deadlier…
3. Secondary disasters. Once the hospital is at capacity, other patients, ppl who depend on prescription drugs, pregnant women, all could face imminent health issues. Here’s a man who can’t access hiv drugs:
A heartbreaking case during Hubei lockdown: a man posted for help. His HIV meds is running out & he can’t get new ones cuz of the roadblock. Local police soon reached out. But instead of helping him get new medicine—police told on him to his parents. pic.twitter.com/keqvVE3B5B
— Tony Lin (@tony_zy) January 25, 2020
4. Community and cross infection. Coronavirus spread fast across the community. When the adults are all quarantined, who takes care of their children? Another tragedy here: https://t.co/mVpSFOoc7W
— Tony Lin (@tony_zy) March 7, 2020
5. Fake news and alternative medication. This has been going on for a while. In China there’s government-endorsed Chinese medicine (very little clinical evidence), and the US shines with Mike Pence’s prayers…
6. Xenophobia on steroids. In China, it’s not just ppl in Wuhan/Hubei who are discriminated against. Ppl in other cities have been sent to quarantine just because they were born in Hubei/Wuhan…
7. And there WILL BE moral quandaries and live trolley problems, sorry. Some ppl try to get away from quarantine because quarantine methods are inhumane and poorly designed, which could increase the chance of infection. But some of those ppl could carry viruses…
8. We’re not even getting into the class-related problems yet: homeless ppl, elderlies, house cleaners, restaurant workers, ppl who simply can’t work from home…if outbreak gets worse, ppl will either have to risk their lives or lose their jobs–if there’s still a job to lose…
China's outbreak has its own authoritarianism problems. But for US, the lessons learned from this one-month tragic "preview" should be transparency, accountability, and professionalism. So far Trump administration seems to be allergic to all three conceptshttps://t.co/twLuq9YjD5
— Tony Lin (@tony_zy) March 7, 2020
…
12. Some optimism about humanity: The heroic ppl who step in and fight this crisis deserves a new thread. My colleague @Muge_Niu has done a much better job collecting their stories, here you go: https://t.co/Yci9B86uop
— Tony Lin (@tony_zy) March 7, 2020
Reality check from Nigeria- “Do I deal with 600 cases of Lassa so far or do I focus on preparedness for this new respiratory virus. The reality is, I can’t really choose between either of those.” #globalhealth #Covid_19 https://t.co/aM853IlB3j
— Ilona Kickbusch (@IlonaKickbusch) March 4, 2020
… THINK GLOBAL HEALTH: The WHO has put out a call for $675 million to support low- and middle-income countries in mobilizing response to COVID-19. They’ve only received $1.2 million so far. How important is it to you that WHO and international efforts are appropriately resourced in addressing this crisis?
IHEKWEAZU: The WHO is so necessary in the world today to enable [a collaborative response], and there are very few other institutions other than WHO and African CDC that can make that happen. So we are very supportive of the work and the solicitations from WHO so that we can have a collective approach.
It’s unfortunate that many countries that we look up to—actually we have looked up to for years—were the first that broke out of the framework of the international health regulation that countries collectively agreed to once there was a sense of a problem in China. We lost, to a large extent, the collective will to respond together. So from my perspective, and I think this view is shared by many of my colleagues on the continent, we do appreciate some collective thinking, and we do appreciate the platform that WHO provides to do this. What we would all like to see a little bit more of is that once that thinking happens, that more countries on the continent—now this is almost a criticism of ourselves—develop organizations like we have, the Nigerian Centers for Disease Control…
From the Washington Post‘s Tech Policy section, “State Department blames ‘swarms of online, false personas’ from Russia for wave of coronavirus misinformation online”:
… The latest warning came from Lea Gabrielle, the coordinator of the government’s Global Engagement Center, in testimony to Congress. Her remarks follow days after an unpublished agency report, unearthed by The Washington Post on Saturday, revealed nearly 2 million tweets over a three-week period pushed coronavirus-related conspiracy theories abroad.
Gabrielle did not link that report with her broader conclusions about Russian interference online. But she said actors tied to the country — through “state proxy websites,” official state-owned media and fake accounts online — were part of an effort to “take advantage of a health crisis, where people are terrified worldwide, to try to advance their priorities.”…
In February, a top State Department official accused Russia of deploying similar tactics around coronavirus, spreading falsehoods that may stoke panic or undermine health officials’ response to the deadly outbreak. But the U.S. government has offered no public evidence of its claims, sparking criticism from tech companies, which say they remain in the dark about the exact nature of suspected Kremlin interference….
The Global Engagement Center’s analysis on the coronavirus focused on a three-week period between Jan. 20 and Feb. 10, around the time the World Health Organization declared coronavirus an international emergency. The State Department agency studied millions of tweets in countries excluding the United States. In total, known conspiracy theories amounted to about 7 percent of the Twitter conversation over that period, leading the State Department to conclude these falsehoods were “potentially impactful on the broader social media conversation.”
The tweets themselves floated a number of harmful conspiracy theories — suggesting, for example, that the coronavirus had been created by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation or was the result of a bioweapon. Some of the tweets linked to YouTube videos, according to the State Department document, suggesting the problem went beyond Twitter…
The LAtimes, earlier this week — “Empty stores, quarantined firefighters: Washington city at coronavirus epicenter reels as death toll rises”:
KIRKLAND, Wash. — Parents keep their children inside. Few people shake hands anymore. More than two dozen firefighters remain in quarantine. Restaurants and hair salons are close to empty.
Such is life in Kirkland, Wash., the suburb just east of Seattle known for its folksy downtown and spectacular lakefront views, but now above all as the U.S. epicenter of COVID-19.
Of the 11 U.S. deaths from the coronavirus epidemic, eight were residents of a local nursing home that is struggling to care for others who may have been infected. An additional death occurred at a Kirkland hospital.
“I can’t kiss my kids,” said Hamid Dabbaghian, a 48-year-old cashier at the Kirkland Whole Foods who recently moved here from Iran and feared catching the virus from customers. “As a newcomer to the U.S., I’m worried about my family, and worried that if I die, what will they do.”
Others in this city of 90,000 remain nonchalant or fatalistic, expressing sympathy for those who have died but determination to carry on.
“It’s not the Holocaust. It’s not Armageddon,” said Doug Evanson, 57, an Uber driver who frequently drops healthcare workers at the nursing home. “I don’t get why I need to go out and buy cases of drinking water when I can just turn on the tap.”…
Residents awoke Saturday to the news that a man in his 50s with underlying health conditions had died from the virus the previous day at the city’s EvergreenHealth Medical Center.
At the time, it was thought to be the first U.S. death from the outbreak, but officials have since announced that two infected residents of the nursing home, Life Care Center of Kirkland, had died two days earlier…
Cacti
Call me crass, but it really seems like an opportunity is being missed here by not referring to this illness as Trump virus, or CPAC virus.
Patricia Kayden
I miss President Obama.
Major Major Major Major
I would hate to be an Uber driver right now.
The Dangerman
Yeah, I’ve been thinking about potential secondary influences here; for example, now would be a shitty time for a major earthquake in the wrong place (there is never a good time, of course, but now is especially bad). Furthermore, I wonder about North Korea (oh, yeah, I’m all sorts of good news tonight, I know). If it’s bad in China and South Korea, I assume NK is worse. I don’t know what might happen as we are in uncharted times here, but NK in some sort of crisis is no good for anyone either.
West of the Rockies
This is the Jericho Trumpet of threads. Man…
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Major Major Major Major: Guy who organizes our local photo meetup is an Uber/Lyft driver, I’m avoiding any group shoots for the next couple of months.
Mary G
piratedan
Another factor not yet discussed…. if this starts killing hundreds of thousands of people, the time spent in the aftermath of those events in end of life decisions and settling of estates
The Dangerman
@Major Major Major Major:
I’d broaden that out a bit; anyone in the gig economy that doesn’t telecommute is going to be impacted. And it will cut both ways; if you are barely scraping by in a high cost of living area, are you staying home for 2 weeks in any precautionary measure? Hell no.
Another Scott
@piratedan:
Yup.
County coroners in many areas have been swamped because of the opiate/opioid epidemic (young people dying get autopsies). My mom needed an autopsy (there was a concern that a hospital mistake contributed to her death), but couldn’t get one for nearly two months because of the backlog. Not being able to bury or cremate a loved one because you can’t get a death certificate for weeks or months is terribly disruptive, obviously…
I’m hopeful that we’ll learn what to do before there are hundreds or thousands of deaths from COVID-19. But I’m not optimistic. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@The Dangerman: Delivery services are going to take off. You watch.
Probably not a risky gig. They’ll take precautions at the restaurant end and do a front door drop-off. Minimal interaction with people. Lots of new business coming their way.
zhena gogolia
@Martin:
Wow, you’re uncharacteristically cheery this evening!
opiejeanne
22 dead now of COVID-19, all but one in WA. Another 27 have died at the Life Care Center since February19, but it’s not known if they were infected with the virus.
Martin
@The Dangerman: Uber will pay drivers for 14 days if they’re out. Other companies likely following suit. This is going to be vindication for California’s gig economy law.
opiejeanne
@Martin: Amazon Prime offers delivery through Whole Foods, but they say that they may not be able to help everyone because demand suddenly jumped.
acallidryas
I’m curious if anyone has a good source for hospitalization and severity rates for COVID-19, rather than just the mortality rates? It seems like that is also extremely important in figuring out the effects of a pandemic, but I haven’t seen many estimates reported.
Martin
@opiejeanne: No, 2 in FL, 1 in CA, the rest in WA.
Not many updates today, expect big changes tomorrow.
Major Major Major Major
@The Dangerman: yes, but only as an Uber (etc.) driver do you have a bunch of people coming into your vehicle, many of them travelers, getting their grubby mitts all over everything. At least taxi drivers have partitions.
Cheryl Rofer
Here’s the funniest thing I’ve seen all day –
Martin
@zhena gogolia: Coming to terms with new realities.
jl
I like to be optimistic. There have been things going on under the media radar that show state and local health departments have been on the case and done some work. In his news conference on the Grand Princess Cruise ship outbreak, Newsom said that California has a little over 10,000 exposed people in self-quarantine.
And I just found out the the SF Chronicle has an interactive map of cases:
https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
Also good news, but only my educated guess is that California is using a method called ‘iterative tracing’ to find people who should self-quarantine. Roughly, with iterative tracing, you not only trace back in the chain as far you can to the first infected person who produced the index emergent case, but you then trace forward from ell the infected cases to include all exposed in the net who are judged to be above a certain threshold of exposure. That is what I gather from news reports with details on how the self-quarantines are working in Northern California.
To find and contact 10,000 exposed isn’t something you do in a week or two, I suspect State and local health departments must have started an iterative tracing program as soon as it looked like containment efforts in China would fail.
But you can’t be perfect from this. I’ve heard news reports that some infected people have been walking around for weeks with symptoms. But, you have to capture a minimum proportion of infected cases and exposed to get the reproduction number down close to one.
Major Major Major Major
@acallidryas: unless there’s extremely widespread testing, it might be better to work backwards from fatalities.
West of the Rockies
Is it reasonable to assume that the virus has been in the U.S. since late January? Isn’t it reasonable to also assume a number of people contracted it, got ill (to varying degrees) and have recovered?
dmsilev
Here’s a good read: Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Hokey smokes, Bullwinkle
Another Scott
@acallidryas: If behavior like the following is common, it may be a distinction without a difference.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
debbie
@Patricia Kayden:
Wasn’t it Trent Lott who sat strumming his guitar on his porch after Katrina?
dmsilev
@Cheryl Rofer: Someone earlier posted a statement from the Coronavirus saying that it was voluntarily entering self-quarantine after being exposed to Ted Cruz.
Martin
@West of the Rockies: Early Jan. And yes, some already have recovered and never realized they had it. Might even be some fatalities that never got tested, but likely not many.
The Dangerman
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
Same neighborhood (roughly), I figure Coachella has no chance…
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
I went shopping last night and the stores and restaurants were packed (mixed middle class/working class neighborhoods).
At first I thought it was panic buying, but no it was every day purchases. No one there had a worry in the world.
Chetan Murthy
@acallidryas: https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864
5% of cases need hospitalization, which is far higher than for the flu (1.5%) A lot of that was respiratory support (instant ICU). I read that basically Italy went from “We have enough ICU beds) to “we’ve run out, putting people in corridors, need ventilators, we’re fucked” in a week.
acallidryas
@jl: There are likely a lot of states and districts doing the work the federal governments are doing, but others are failing badly. My mom is a principal in a county (a very red county, incidentally) that recently had a confirmed case, and the school district held a meeting on Friday to discuss COVID-19. There the principals were told:
*That this was far less dangerous than the flu, which is actually more deadly and contagious and kills more people, so there’s not need to worry
*After being asked about protocol, that there were absolutely no planned guidelines for what to do if a kid/teacher/office worker had any symptoms
*They did provide disinfectants, but neglected to tell anyone that it was only effective if being left on the surfaces for 10 minutes, meaning most schools were not using effectively
My dad is a state employee in the same county and has been given no instructions whatsoever. It does not make me hopeful as to how most places are dealing with this.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Meanwhile, world financial markets are being crushed.
Currently:
Japan – 5.77%
Hong Kong – 3.76%
Shanghai – 2.41%
Australia – 6.19%
Dow Futures – 4.71%
{cough, cough} but…. {wheezing} but, but… {vomiting] but… {choking} her emails {collapses}
Major Major Major Major
@Chetan Murthy: hospitalization is more 10-20%, also that tweet is wildly misleading, we had a thread about it the other day. It’s just one guess from one AHA presentation and the original slide had no timeline.
West of the Rockies
@West of the Rockies:
My point is, focusing solely on the growing number of cases and deaths sort of makes us for get that for the great majority, this will be like mild flu or a cold. In other words, “We’re all gonna die!!!” isn’t helping.
I don’t mean to say that 3 or 6 deaths per 100 cases is not truly tragic, but mass hysteria is hurting kids and everyone else.
Mary G
Chetan Murthy
@Major Major Major Major: 10-20% ? fuuuck
Chetan Murthy
@West of the Rockies: That WHO mission came back with a case fatality rate of 2-3%. Which is (IIRC) 20-30x that of the flu. And that’s with all the interventions available. If ICU beds run out? Probably much worse.
jl
In my Hum Ho, the great uncertainty in how this bug transmits itself and how dangerous it is is causing people to freak out. To some extent that is goo, if people can keep the freak out under control and use it as an incentive to get good info and take precautions. But as I have noted before with Covid-19, a lot of this is bread and butter every day public health service work that we don’t notice anymore. It’s been a long time since society regularly celebrated the ‘Conquest of Disease!;.
There are probably on average 20K to 30K cases of viral meningitis every year in the US. That is a very bad and scary bug. Several hundred cases of typhoid fever. There were two dozen cases of cholera in Florida some time ago, imported from Central America. Around 10,000 cases of TB every year, a lot of it scare drug resistant kind. There are few cases of bubonic plague and Hanta virus out West every year, that is very very bad stuff. There are Legionnaire’s disease outbreaks very year. There are periodic outbreaks of various encephalitis from mosquitoes that break out. These are in the news for a few weeks, you hear advisories and then it drops out the news. We live with viral meningitis, and we still have college dormitories, still have locker rooms for school athletics, prisons, military barracks.
So, some very dangerous new thing rears its head, or an old one rises up and is very threatening. Public health people learn what epidemiological, environmental, or physiological ‘gimmick’ (to risk being flippant) it uses to spread itself, and under what conditions it causes trouble. You learn all about that gimmick, learn how to leverage weak spots in society that let it in, and learn and implement an SOP protocol to whomp ass on small outbreaks, The ID’d weak spots lead to adaptations in clinical practice, changes in list of reportable diseases, building codes, mosquito control district practices.
Sooner or later we adjust.
I’m not saying this might be a horrible mess for a while, and likely some things about how we go through daily life will change. And Trump is in charge, which is an emergency in itself. But just saying that we have been through this before. All the way through the early 1960s.
Lyrebird
I think GWB was at a birthday party… ah no thanks Google, he had been given a guitar as a gift
Had enormous differences with Trent Lott, and little respect for him, but no he was not strumming or doing anything on his porch after Katrina, his house was smashed up pretty bad.
zhena gogolia
Okay, I have to check out now. I’m always in a better mood before I check BJ.
Kattails
I know I’m repeating from a previous thread, sorry, this is all pretty fretful. I just turned 69, work at a retail job, part-time, no paid time off. There are only 2 full time people plus myself, so if I’m out, they’ll have to bring in help from other stores. Question is could I do it without any direct diagnosis and still have a job? And I would have to talk with my bank, car loan, etc. b/c I have no backup money. I have asthma, just got over a cold that hung on for 3 weeks with endless coughing but no fever or sore throat. I am normally in good health and pretty resistant.
My mother’s 91, lives in FL & has just been diagnosed with a mass in her abdomen, still waiting to talk w/ the oncologist. She’ll opt for surgery but at her age it’s risky. The only good news is that it’s slow growing and hasn’t spread. My sister and I were planning on flying down to see her ASAP, but now that’s questionable, and as we live in NH the drive would be like 3 days. There have been two confirmed cases of the virus in the state.
The neighbors who live at the end of a long shared driveway have a Trump sign out. If I had a dog I would regularly walk it down there to take a dump at the base of the sign. Perhaps a few scoops out of the kitty litter pan instead.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Lyrebird: He was eating cake with a supplicant McCain (photo)
West of the Rockies
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
Well, voting for HRC was the same as voting for Trump, right Stein and Sanders protest voters? I mean, it’s not like under HRC we’d probably have a better funded and managed CDC, DHS, etc, right?//
jl
@acallidryas: Yes, we have to hope that state and local public health departments are going their their daily grinds on epidemic investigations and case and exposed tracing and countermeasures (that they have done for decades and decades) in overtime on Covid-19. What you said about that school briefing is extremely disturbing. I hope the BS didn’t come from the public health department. Maybe some yahoos running the school district or local government put it out.
My direct experience from work and meeting people at conferences, is that the competence and professionalism of public health personnel is extremely high all around the country (and yes, that includes the deep South for the snarkists here). A lot of them are clinicians with academic PhD. Public health epidemiologist get very rigorous training. If they fall down on the job, I think it would be due to lack of resources.
But what you report is disturbing.
Quiltingfool
This is off topic, but I’d like to hear from anyone that may have some personal insight. My mother has dementia (she was diagnosed with bipolar in her late 50s, she is now 80). She can no longer walk. My father is her primary caregiver and is very good, but he is exhausted and knows he should put her in a nursing home but is very reluctant as he is concerned about care and he just doesn’t want her to feel abandoned. So, he called me Friday and said he had the ambulance take her to the hospital as she was choking and had difficulty swallowing her evening meds (ground up and in applesauce). They checked her lungs, etc. and they came home today. Well, he called this evening and back to the hospital, same problem. Is difficulty swallowing a physical problem with dementia, or is it mental? My dad thinks mom won’t swallow because she is being stubborn, but I don’t know. She doesn’t like to drink – I go stay with them about every week (I don’t live close), and my job when I’m there is to get her to drink. Now it seems that she can’t swallow or forgets how. It seems to be getting worse – is this a sign that her body is shutting down? Lord, just thinking that is so awful. Any insight would be appreciated. I’m going to sign off now, but I’ll check here tomorrow.
Major Major Major Major
@Chetan Murthy: might be lower! Denominator is really hard on this one. Varies a lot by country too.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Mary G: That would be nice, but I think the poll is inaccurate.
It’s a robo poll and of land lines only. People who only have land lines tend to be old folks and excludes middle age and young adults. A good poll would be a mix of land lines and cell phones and conduced by live interviewers.
West of the Cascades
I can’t believe I can’t find a “Trump Lied People Died” bumper sticker for sale on line.
Major Major Major Major
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: 538 average says Biden 37.8, Sanders 30.1
ziggy
I think we have to put things in context and see how things have played out in other countries. Any from “pretty bad but getting a lid on it” (China), to “really seem to have a handle on it” (Singapore), to “looks like living in hell” (Iran). No point in just assuming the worst, how we handle this will determine the outcome. Infection rates, mortality rates, how this virus really behaves–we don’t know for sure, it is all over the map.
jl
I also note that over last couple of days in California, state and local mass media communication system revved up. Messages in mass and social media giving information, hotline numbers and text message services for information. At least in greater SF Bay area and Central Valley areas (of course Travis AFB is in Central Valley just east of SF Bay)
I don’t know what people in other parts of CA are hearing. There is a vast literature and long experience on effective and safe public communication strategies in public health. So, there is a lot of under the radar stuff going on there too that, if we are lucky, can reduce the severity of the epidemic.
Decentralized individual safety precautions can make a big dent in epidemics, if the public communications programs are well designed an implemented. Some during 2013-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, and in last influenza pandemic in the 2000s made a big difference and saved many lives.
joel hanes
@Another Scott:
Nursing home. Those were almost certainly elderly people with serious pre-existing health issues.
…
Um, like several of our beloved commenters …
Major Major Major Major
I read some public health people today saying that elbow and fist bumps are bad because droplets are the main transmission source and they require you to get within a yard of the person.
I might take up bowing, myself. Don’t like touching randos anyway (plus I’m a total weeb)
The Dangerman
@Quiltingfool:
My uncle had Parkinson’s and it took his ability to swallow. He wanted to live as long as possible so he was given a feeding tube (and then other systems starting shutting down; trust me, you don’t want to know … hell, as his eventual Conservator (well after the feeding tube decision was made) I didn’t want to know).
Parkinson’s and Dementia are different animals, of course, but I would investigate physical over mental personally.
laura
@Quiltingfool:I am so sorry for you and your family. The loss of the ability to swallow is not uncommon in dementia patients as the disease progresses to the later stage. Your mom is no longer safe at home and your father cannot provide the level of care that she currently requires. Because you love her, making a difficult decision is imperative.
My mother felt safe in care – and that made all the difference. I wish you well.
joel hanes
@Kattails:
neighbors … have a Trump sign out
It’s fun to imagine retribution, but don’t do it. They’re not worth it.
Chetan Murthy
@ziggy: You’re right, and what I fear is, our best-case outcome is …. Italy. Modern wealthy country, didn’t take it really seriously, let it get out of control, and now …. medical system is collapsing.
jl
@Major Major Major Major: Big boost to the breathless air kiss and hand wave from six feet away. Maybe a breathless air kiss from six feet away will look so goofy it won’t take off. But, hey, study HM the Queen on how to hand wave, Might be next hot thing for social influencers.
West of the Rockies
@Quiltingfool:
I have no experience and no answers, but I wish you and yours strength. Best wishes.
Mary G
Nothing in it we haven’t all said before, but this thread by Preet Bharara about Twitler lays out everything that is hateful about him.
Major Major Major Major
@jl: bowing is more on-brand for me :)
ziggy
@Quiltingfool: Not a sign that her body is shutting down, but yes, part of dementia. I can’t believe that they did not give you more information and resources at the hospital! Please contact her primary care physician asap and speak with them about what is happening. The danger is that she could choke to death or get pneumonia, so she needs help right away. (NOT stubborness!) Best wishes in this difficult time.
My mother had Parkinsons and went through this, got a naso-gastric tube for a while. It actually got better for a time, but then other things went.
Zelma
@Quiltingfool:
I am so sorry. My husband had a similar health history. I don’t know what kind of dementia it is, but if it’s vascular dementia often caused by small strokes, the swallowing instinct can be affected. If you think of it, once you swallow, the rest of the process is automatic. This can become a problem in dementia patients. It was for my husband.
It can be really dangerous if food gets in the lungs which can happen and causes pneumonia. This is how my husband died.
Good luck. I know how difficult this is.
Chetan Murthy
@ziggy: this might be useful too.
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
opiejeanne
@Martin: Oh, you’re right. The number here is 19. I forgot Florida.
different-church-lady
THIS SOCIETY HAS NEVER BEEN CLEANER, YET WE ARE ALL AFRAID WE ARE GOING TO DIE!!1!
Kattails
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: land lines tend also to be prevalent in rural areas with a lot of hills/valleys, where cell reception is really iffy & you have to hook up with everyone’s wi-fi code to do all the stuff the fancy expensive phone is supposed to do. (But darn it Bernie down 20 points would be just ducky says this still-hurting Warren girl.)
ziggy
@Chetan Murthy: True, I don’t really understand what happened in Italy. Why it got so ugly, so fast. They are really cracking down now, so hopefully they can start to get a handle on it. I’m hopeful that the states can take up the leadership role we are missing from our federal government.
Sebastian
@Martin:
There is no way I am ordering any prepared food. How do you know that minimum wage kitchen staff didn’t come to work sick because they can’t afford a day off?
Kattails
@joel hanes: spoilsport ;-
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Sebastian: Trump like McDonalds because they don’t know who the food is for when they prepare it, he doesn’t know if the person assembling his hambender came to work sick that day.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: Very classy, jl.
Barbara
@Quiltingfool: Not being able to swallow is more likely a physical problem. Rejecting food or complete loss of appetite is what we observed in the last weeks and months of our parents’ lives, not inability to swallow.
DB11
@Mary G: Well if there was any doubt before about the outcome, that pretty much seals it.
At this point, it’s helpful to party unity if Biden totally crushes the remaining contests — in order to minimize the sure arguments from Sanders camp that it was only the establishment that propped up Joe’s run.
With really big numbers from here on out, the irrefutable proof of the widespread support of ordinary voters will help short-circuit any potential gaslighting.
Inspectrix
@Quiltingfool:
agree with advice to call her PCP and if appropriate, advocate for a swallow evaluation. Read up on “dysphagia and dementia.” Here is an overview that has a lot of the basic information:
https://www.alzheimersonline.org/page/about-us/whats-on/blog/recognising-and-managing-swallowing-difficulties-for-people-with-dementia/
there are some basic food texture modifications and lots of other tips that can help if that’s what’s going on with her. But of course, get good advice from a health professional you trust. Good luck.
ziggy
@Quiltingfool: Just some more thoughts–yes, it sounds like it’s definitely time for a nursing home from what you say. How can your father even move her around himself if she can’t walk? If you can find the right one, it will actually be a tremendous relief for him and everyone. She will adapt. He can spend a lot of time with her, but without all the stress. It is so unfortunate that this comes at this time, but most areas of the country are just fine, and hopefully new protocols will be put in place to protect nursing homes.
Timurid
@ziggy: It got into the hill towns that are basically the worst case for demographic decline and busted age distributions.
Major Major Major Major
@DB11: like I said, it will be over by Florida at the absolute latest, where Sanders may not pick up a single delegate.
Saying nice things about Fidel Castro really cuts into one’s edge among Latinos there, who knew.
Barbara
@DB11: Thank goodness California went early because in 2016 it beckoned Sanders to keep going, like a lighthouse signaling safety. No excuses this time.
Kattails
cuteness break:
Barbara
@Major Major Major Major: It’s baffling. You can argue for progress in Cuba policy without blowing kisses at Castro.
Flea, RN
@Quiltingfool:
ER nurse here, delurking to answer your question – yes, end stage Alzheimer’s often produces dysphagia (trouble swallowing) because the parts of the brain that control swallowing are affected (it’s a very complex process).
Some good info here (I don’t know anything about the source, but it’s a well known phenomenon): https://www.scie.org.uk/dementia/advanced-dementia-and-end-of-life-care/end-of-life-care/eating-drinking.asp
You should check with your PMD – there are a lot of confounding issues, and people can develop what’s called an ‘aspiration pneumonia’ from choking on saliva, often at night when asleep.
Some of it can be mitigated; a visit by a home nurse might help a lot.
Standard disclaimer – this is not a diagnosis; i have expertise in the topic, not in your mom or dad’s lives. It’s a very tough disease, and I wish you the best of luck with whatever is to come.
Mike in DC
@Major Major Major Major:
I expect the “math” to make it impossible for Sanders after the 17th. He’s going to have to get 60+% of the delegates after that point…pretty much like last time. He could hang around through the end of April, at which point the numbers will be something like 80%(i.e., obviously impossible). Mostly I just want him to concede as early as possible, and then endorse immediately after the last primary. Any dissenters on his staff should be immediately and unceremoniously shitcanned.
Major Major Major Major
Mary G
Amir Khalid
@Major Major Major Major:
Just do the Vulcan sign and say, “Live long and prosper.”
smike
@Cheryl Rofer: That is hilarious! Thanks.
Sebastian
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I thought it was because he is afraid someone might poison him. He had run ins with the mob.
Or he is just a tasteless vulgarian.
DB11
@Major Major Major Major:
Truth!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Sebastian:
Yeah, that’s what I was saying, they don’t know who the food is for when they prepare it. Though tasteless vulgarian also works.
DB11
@Barbara: Oh, I expect there will still be excuses — just none that really stick :)
Kattails
@Quiltingfool: No helpful insights, just so sorry you are having to watch your parents go through this. Please let us know how you’re doing, what you find out.
DB11
@Mary G: You mean that outposts of kindness and joy have actually survived in this dismal time? Hope lives!
Thanks for posting it. We sure AF need more kindness in this world, and that example is a very poignant one.
Major Major Major Major
eclare
@Barbara: Good point regarding CA going early.
West of the Rockies
@Amir Khalid:
Oh, excellent idea!
eclare
@Kattails: Aww!
eclare
@Mary G: So good to see, thanks!
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Bernie is Bernie. He’s not going to drop out. It’s going to be a replay of his sore loser, sour grapes, raging grievance act from 2016. He’ll refuse to concede, he’ll demand ridiculous concessions or threaten a “floor fight”. Eventually, he’ll grudgingly concede, but his cult will booo everyone at the convention, especially Warren. Then his a-hole employees will make round the clock appearances on CNN saying “Trump will bring a glorious revolution” and “vote for Jill Stein”.
Sebastian
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Ah! Sorry, the coming sick to work part confused me.
On a related note, I still can’t get over the sandwich spread he had for an event early in his presidency. We have those at mid tier one-day conferences at the Westin.
eclare
@Quiltingfool: My mother had a condition where her throat basically started closing up, causing issues with swallowing. Her dr wanted her to have surgery, but other issues took over. Joan Rivers was having surgery for this condition when the clinic screwed up.
As others have said, so sorry you’re dealing with this. It’s tough.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Things are going to be really fucked up today. Markets are talking on water after hitting an iceberg and we have idiots (Dump, Kudlow, Mnuchin, McConnell) at the helm.
Mother fucking NYT and Comey should lined up against the war for their email shit.
Martin
@ziggy: They will not get a handle on it.
Italy blew up mostly because of lack of trust in the government, and lack of action.
Italy has a massive tourism industry, so they needed screening and tracking early on. They didn’t do it. Pretty sure they don’t have the capacity to as an austerity government (that’s not their only dysfunction, but it’s a big one). And their tourism is quite distributed – ski resorts, multiple major cities, etc. so the cases coming in went everywhere. And the lack of action (sound familiar) meant that cases could spread out so that when they did start testing, it was too late to contain.
What’s more, Italians are famous for telling the government to go fuck themselves. Tell them to to stop social contact, and they’ll immediately all run into the street and open mouth kiss each other. When you need the cooperation from the public to contain something, trust in government is key. And as bad as things are here in the US, for the most part we do follow directions. Driving in New York is pretty rough, but it’s a fucking choreographed ballet compared to Rome.
Locking them up won’t work. They’ll just rebel. They aren’t China – they don’t have the compliant population and they don’t have the kind of authoritarian control that China does to enforce it.
Martin
@Major Major Major Major: Not sure why he was asking. WA and CA didn’t. We just did it. The Feds gave us permission when they had no choice but to give us permission.
The feds aren’t coming to save us. They’re just in the way.
Martin
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Trump likes McDonalds because he stopped his emotional development at age 5.
DB11
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
I agree with the first sentence, but I’m not so sure about the rest, because the overall primary dynamic is very different this year.
Bernie will be a sore loser and he will grouse, but I think the massive pressure to concede earlier rather than later — especially if he’s blown out in both Florida and Michigan, as looks to be the case — will result in a different calculation for him than last time around against Hillary.
I do think that Bernie truly understands the threat that a second Trump turn represents and that he will want to avoid the censure of history for culpability of a Trump re-election. He has been running because he honestly believed that he was the best chance of that not happening.
As the evidence piles up that he won’t be the standard-bearer because he has nowhere near the support of last time, I think he’ll do the right thing, around the right time (with maybe a small amount of lag).
I just don’t think he’ll show much grace in doing so.
Ken
Eww, like out of the toilet?
(For some reason I’ve been thinking of Idiocracy for, oh, the last three years.)
Major Major Major Major
@Martin: he sucks, who knows.
He had a real doozy today: if you see a crowded subway car during your commute, just wait for the next one, which will… be less crowded? And of course that way you get to spend more time with your dozens of close friends on the platform.
Mary G
@Martin: You can say that again. The orange baby just tweeted this to Andrew Cuomo regarding his complaints about getting mixed messages from the feds:
I cannot understand why his approval rating is still in the mid 40s. Even Fox has had some information.
Ken
Hooray, I guess?
(Is it just me or does that number seem small? Oh wait, I forgot that according to the numbers the CDC stopped updating in February, there are only a couple hundred cases in the US. So 80 more tests a day should be more than enough to keep ahead of the curve.)
DB11
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I’ve often wondered, given Comey’s last-honest-man shtick (which I think he really believes — or at least tries to), how he squares the circle within his own inner dialog.
Because there’s little doubt that of the myriad of factors that contributed to Hillary’s loss, his unprecedented, unethical and totally inappropriate interventions — especially the Anthony Weiner laptop one at the end of the campaign— were the most directly determinative in electing Trump.
He must know it… and it must threaten to shatter his carefully constructed self-image and self-identity, and torture him with worries about how he’ll go down in history. It’s so not the ending that he would have written for himself.
Fair Economist
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: The bond markets are even worse than the stock markets. The THIRTY year treasury rate is below 1% – and below expected inflation. Insofar as it means anything, that is predicting a future much worse than was predicted during the financial crisis. Alternatively it means panic has destroyed the market’s ability to make any kind of meaningful prediction, which is actually less bad, but still really bad.
@West of the Rockies: Panic is our friend. If people stay home and wash their hands, spread will be contained. This thing would kill millions of Americans if spread were truly uncontrolled (which, fortunately, it won’t be, because of panic eventually if nothing else suffices). Toilet paper shortages and racist attacks are bad things, but not even within orders of magnitude of how bad this disease could potentially be.
@acallidryas:
Because of Trump, this is going to be SO bad in Red areas. They are likely to see Iran-level catastrophes (what’s really happening, not what they are admitting to). Even after the brainwashees like the ones you’re talking about come around, the faith healing churches will continue to spread it. If you think God can cure cancer, of course you’ll think it can cure a bad flu! So they’ll come in for laying on of hands and communion and spread it until even the believers don’t think prayer can cure this anymore – and that’s going to be really bad. And cases will *still* get worse for 2 more weeks after that, because of the slow presentation.
Interestingly, the Mormons are on top of this and are moving to virtual services in affected areas. Expect their missionaries to talk about how the coronavirus plague shows they are God’s chosen in a year or two.
Mary G
Another cute dog video:
DB11
@Fair Economist:
Looks like they’ll be an unprecedented number of red-state Darwin Award nominees for 2020.
Major Major Major Major
@Ken: 70-80/day is, sadly, a significant improvement.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Now they’re trashing AOC. It was never about policy. It was always about being in a cult.
Ken
@Major Major Major Major: But One-Of-Three-Guys-In-Charge-Of-The-US-Response Pence said we’d have millions of tests by last Thursday. I’m pretty sure millions is more than 80, though at the rate we’re going I expect an official denial of that within the next two days.
Ken
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Trashing AOC because she liked a TV show. How… Trump-like.
NotMax
@Ken
Oh, now you’re gonna quibble about a rounding error?
:)
smike
@Martin: It occurs to me that California and NY could form a coalition with Florida and Texas and pretty much tell the president what is expected of him, loud-and-clear and right in his face. I don’t know about Florida, but Texas Dems outvoted Rs by 22% in the last primary (sorry, don’t remember the source). Some Rs in Florida might be getting a bit worried about the fact that dear leader doesn’t seem to give a shit about their well-being.
Major Major Major Major
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: yeah that was astounding. It was a cute little clip and AOC said something nice. When she speaks at the convention endorsing Biden, the screams of WE TRUSTED YOU will make 2016 seem like an [insert simile of your choosing]
JAFD
Good morning, everyone !
Having read Ms. Specht’s thread, and ye comments, have decided to follow the ‘catch it before the hospitals fill up’ advice…
Anyway, a thread on 20 second songs
https://twitter.com/JenMonnier/status/1234532567610605568
To which I would add (if I had a Twtr acct) a couple of 25-second dittys, first, the ‘Soldiers’ Chorus’ from Gounod’s “Faust”
My father slaughtered a kangeroo
Gave me the grizzly end to chew
Now wasn’t that a horrible thing to do
To give me to chew the grizzly end of a dead kangeroo
And each verse of this classic
Beer, beer, for old Saint Joe’s High
You bring the whiskey, I’ll bring the rye
Send the sophomores out for gin
Don’t let the sober freshmen in
dah dah dah…
We’ll never stagger, we’ll never fall
We’ll sober up on wood alcohol
While the dear old faculty lies
Drunk on the classroom floor.
Stay healthy, everyone !
Sebastian
@DB11:
I see this more as a poetic “Obama should have made a PSA about not drinking bleach.”
Not sure if I’ll go to hell for this.
Major Major Major Major
@Sebastian: I saw a video of a dude in Qom, Iran talking about how the idea that Coronavirus can be spread through shrines is imperialist propaganda and he is going to prove it by licking a shrine that the lying west claims is a disease vector. He then licks the shrine heavily… he has since been arrested.
Martin
@smike: You are aware of who is running both Texas and Florida, right? We really, really don’t get along with them.
No, the only thing we can do is execute competently at the state and local level, in as public a way we can. We’re long past words. We need action.
Calouste
@smike: Well, the Democrats had multiple candidates to vote for in the presidential primaries, the GOP only had one. That might suppress turnout. Side effect of that of course is that any other elections that happen on the same day (or even jungle primaries) would be tilted towards the Dems.
smike
@Martin: Yeah, I know. I live in a red area near Austin. But even Texas is getting the idea that this is not looking good. SXSW cancellation is just a taste.
smike
@Calouste: I understand, but my point is that it is a positive sign. I’ll take what I can get around here.
Amir Khalid
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
It’s their sheer childishness that really grabs you.
SectionH
@Amir Khalid:
Yes it does. It re-inforces why I believe we need huge numbers of women in charge of many places, small and large, from now on.
SectionH
@Mary G: JFC…
cain
Trump is going to fuck all of us and also remember that he’ll favor red states over blue states as well if it comes down to it and tell his supporters how great he is. But it won’t work because it will be a financial melt down if you fuck over the blue states.
opiejeanne
@smike: Those states can join WA. We’re a little ahead of you in flipping off Dear Leader.
opiejeanne
@Major Major Major Major: I would think so. Isn’t licking the shrine an offense against God? It’s certainly offensive.
Betty Cracker
@smike: Rick Scott, former FL gov and current senator, has a knack for sensing shifts in the wind. He rode the tea party tiger to power but distanced himself from the movement when it became a politically liability. So, I thought this was interesting:
Scott is evil, but he’s not stupid.
Martin
@Betty Cracker: Ah, he knows a good opportunity to defraud Medicare when he sees one.
Dan B
@Quiltingfool: Two things about Alzheimers and some forms of dementia. Losing the ability to swallow would not be unusual. Some people lose the ability to breathe.
Sime caretakers die before the person with dementia.
Are there any geriatric social workers in the area. They were enormously helpful with my mother’s care, especially dealing with the family dynamic. We had a very easy time making decisions that could have been emotional landmines.
JPL
I couldn’t sleep so decided to stream CNN and now if I close my eyes, I’m assured of having nightmares. Rick Scott had a chance to vote for impeachment and chose not to, so f.k him and other the other republicans who thought keeping a delusional crook in office was a good thing.
Amir Khalid
@opiejeanne:
It seems to me that disrespecting a Shiite shrine would be sinful. And in Iran where Shiite Islam is the state religion, possibly a petty crime as well. But I’m Sunni, so what do I know?
Betty Cracker
Just to clarify, Rick Scott is a soulless crook, but he’s often the first rat seen swimming away from a sinking ship. If he’s loudly criticizing the handling of the virus by the Trump and DeSantis administrations, it’s because he thinks this debacle could wreck them.
terry chay
@Barbara: your memory was off. California was the nail in the coffin in 2016. Sanders was still a mathematical possibility because superdelegates were still on the first ballot (he had already been eliminated but his campaign went from crapping in them to counting all of them in his column in order to say he had a chance).
His supporters were hoping for a landslide win. Instead he got whooped hard. Almost all the Sanders supporters here went into full on conspiracy mode on how the primary was rigged because all their friends voted for Sanders and exit polling showed he had a small edge (hey! Let’s not count the massive number of Hillary voters that vote by mail or the fact that Sanders’ support is confined to islands).
If California’s primary hadn’t been moved up Sanders would have lost California due to the dropped out candidates bringing Biden all those voters (Sanders won the plurality but was nowhere close to a majority. Now with only two viable candidates in the race Biden picks up the lions share. Also youth turnout has been lower than in 2016 while overall turnout has crushed that year.)
On the other hand with California off the table (and superdelegates not counting), Sanders will now be mathematically eliminated much, much earlier than in 2016. Effectively Sanders was eliminated after Super Tuesday in 2016, but a surprise win I. Michigan made people think that maybe he could win the rust belt states and thus be back in it (nope, the next contests there were Illinois and Minnesota where he got crushed.)
Im struck by how different Biden is from Clinton demographically for Sanders. Basically Sanders was able to win states like West Virginia that Hillary took from Obama. Don’t see these people voting for a New York Jew over a guy who took a train from Scranton to the Capitol every week.
terry chay
@Martin: uh no we didn’t. Tests have to be approved by the FDA hence the delay in getting tests. As just one example: only ~50 people on the grand princess were tested (21? Came back positive). You can bet your bottom dollar this is because there were not more kits to spare.
In addition, I believe that CDC has to certify labs to test according to a regimen that the FDA approves. That’s why we can’t use the millions of test kits coming out of China and Germany, we have to ramp our own (our approved test kits are flawed btw. It shouldn’t make a big deal if you test positive, but there is less validity that you are free and clear if you test negative).
terry chay
@Mary G: low 40’s with a floor so far in the high 30’s. Also the answer is the economy.
The way the market is headed, maybe we’ll see his real floor is. After the crash in 2008 we saw Bush’s approval drop below 27%.
terry chay
@Fair Economist: Small oopsie there: when the rate of return is low that means the bond market is exploding (people are willing to buy crappy yielding long duration bonds).
Of course this means people are taking it out of something to stash their money in those bonds. So other than that, you are probably right about what it implies of the impact.
People aren’t talking about this much because the Yield curve inverted over a year ago so the market had been expecting a crash to occur sometime either last year, this year, or next year.
Uncle Cosmo
Um, don’t you mean the drunkards song?
Seems a bit more à propos than Gloire immortelle de nos aieux…
**From memory, from French III in high school – il y a plus que cinquante-cinq ans! ;^D
Geminid
@Quiltingfool: A very tough situation. I am no health professional, but I’ve noticed that thicker liquids like apricot nectar are easier to swallow. When I did a stint as a care giver for a stroke survivor his water was thickened. For basic nutritional support cream might be an option. I know it makes swallowing large pills easy. And now that skim and 2% milk are popular, half and half, and cream are relatively inexpensive.
Uncle Cosmo
FTFY. Joe was born in Scranton but the family moved to DE when he was 10. (And FTR it is one helluva lot easier to commute from Wilmington to DC – a 90-minute trip on Amtrak – than it would be from NE PA, which might require some routine teleportation…)
(ETA: Looking over his Wiki bio, I never realized he had a Baltimore connection – his dad had been in the oil business there. One of my college buddies’ dad was as well – I wonder if they knew each other?)
Barbara
@terry chay: I think you and I are in agreement. It was the prospect of winning Cali by large margins that made him think he could be the “momentum” candidate. That didn’t happen, of course, but his run had taken on a life of its own by that point.
Geminid
@Geminid: If cream is palatable other liquid supplements like Ensure could be mixed in for vitamins, etc.
Matt McIrvin
@JAFD: People doing “catch it before the hospitals fill up” are how the hospitals fill up. This is a collective-action problem and it’s not helping.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Amir Khalid: I believe that there was reporting back in the first days of the Iran outbreak that kissing and licking the shrines were typical behavior among pilgrims. It’s been outlawed since then.
Betty
@Another Scott:
An article I read called “Tipping Point” somewhere (Sorry I lost track where) describes this as typical. It’s seems like a cold with sniffles and then bam hits the lungs and goes to town.
ziggy
@Martin: Late checking back in here on the West Coast, but thanks for your insight, as always. I know nothing about Italy, would like to go there, someday (not soon!).
Having so little direction from the top, a situation that doesn’t appear like it will change, makes me wonder if we aren’t going to see 50 different approaches to managing this virus in the US. Or perhaps several states will band together like they have done with lawsuits, to provide uniform Covid policies. It certainly appears right now that there are very different mindsets in the population in different parts of the US.