Me, less than 24 hours ago:
I sorta feel like we’ve already passed the tipping point in containing the virus. It’s widespread enough that it is in so many places in people who do not know it. Next week is going to be wild.
— John Cole (@Johngcole) March 9, 2020
This morning:
Surgeon General Jerome Adams: "Initially, we had a posture of containment, so that we could give people time to prepare for where we are right now. Now we're shifting into a mitigation phase."
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) March 8, 2020
It’s not that I am particularly bright and figured this out before anyone else, it’s that it should be obvious to everyone that we are just uniquely ill-prepared for just this sort of crisis. My first thought when I read that China was locking down entire cities and provinces was “Hope it works because if it gets here we’re screwed.” And that would be the case even if King Joffrey Baratheon wasn’t President and preoccupied with pulling the wings off butterflies and torturing small animals.
Most of the reasons are systemic, but there are some cultural ones, as well. The cultural ones are obvious- we pride ourselves on being “free,” regardless how true that is (we’re “free,” as long as you go to work, and pay the mortgage, and have health insurance, and on and on), so there is no Mayor, Governor, or elected official in America who is going to lock down a damned town, much less entire states. Not to mention, it’s debatable how effective that would be because viruses don’t respect borders, although it would not surprise me to see Trump use the virus as another excuse for his border wall.
Additionally, we also pride ourselves on being individuals, so the whole concept of collective action does not come easy to us. That’s not to say we don’t come together in the aftermath of a tragedy like a flood or hurricane, but that is AFTER the fact. Even then there are still more than enough jackasses who decide they can ride out the storm and those who are physically unable to leave, and that alone stresses the system. I often wonder if World War II happened today, would we be able to pull our shit together again and deal with rationing? I have my doubts.
BUT BUT INNOVATION, you say! Free markets! Innovation comes after the fact, and I hate to break it to you, but innovation doesn’t happen only here. In fact, with us moving towards the MBA model of short term profit, more often than not actual innovation is happening elsewhere in the world.
The structural reasons are all pretty obvious if you think about it, too. Medical care in the United States is a barely functional patchwork of different providers If you have money and insurance and until recently did not have a pre-existing condition, if you don’t have money, it isn’t functional at all. World’s best healthcare, my ass. So there is no centralized authority with a flat structure to administer health care, and even if there were, not everyone has access to health care to begin with.
On top of that, and due mostly to that, we are utter shit at preventative medicine. Having access to medical care for everyone in the population increases not only quality of life, but lifespans, because the citizenry and the medical professionals can focus on fixing people who are broken and then work to get them to stay that way. People live longer, healthier lives in countries with full coverage. It’s that simple. All countries are to some degree reactive, but we are particularly so, here. I mean, fer fuck’s sake, someone briefly mentioned discussing end of life care before you were one foot in the grave with the other on a banana peel and the country freaked the fuck out screaming about death panels for five years.
So you have a country which has medical care determined by profit, so there is no fat in the system to deal with a huge and immediate surge, an unhealthier population who even if they have medical coverage are loathe to use it because we are penalized for doing so (to keep costs down- *GIGGLE*), a sicker population more susceptible to severe consequences from something like coronavirus, a population less likely to work together to stop the spread, and,because there basically is no social safety net, unable to stay home from work because if they do they lose the house and the kids go hungry, and basically you have a 350 million man petri dish just waiting to explode. Once the virus got here, we were pretty much fucked regardless.
This differs from something like Ebola, btw, in that it is easy to contain people who might have been exposed to it than corona because the places you can get exposed are much broader, and you generally KNOW if you are exposed to Ebola early on. Corona was probably on its way around the globe as Asia was closing its doors.
I guess what waits to be seen is how we handle the mitigation. Probably our only chance is have a lot of luck and to throw money at it so that people are incentivized to provide the care or seek the care they need. Throw a dollar sign handling it, and we might make it.
Obviously I am not a professional, and these are just my thoughts, so if I am wrong, please fill me in. I know David probably has a lot to add that will clarify, correct, and/or expand on what I have written.
Bonus- read Shock Doctrine and keep your eye on what the fuckers are going to do during this crisis, because you know they will be up to something while we are distracted.
A Ghost to Most
Embrace the suck.
Booger
I could not make it through ‘Shock Doctrine’ when I tried years ago. And the bad actors have gotten worse since it was written…there’s not even a facade of policy, just shameless looting.
Major Major Major Major
I don’t know, Cole. A President Clinton or even President Romney would probably do an okay job even with all that baggage. Not South Korea/Taiwan good, but the president has a shit ton of powers in a declared emergency and a sufficiently talented person might be able to not completely shit the bed!
ETA: for example look at Italy. They have a great healthcare system I believe, but they’re run by literal clowns and nazis, and they’re maybe not doing a great job. Personality/competence at the top matters.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
PenAndKey
And this is why I don’t even consider the constant calls for people to “self quarantine” to be good advice. In this country it’s an unrealistic contrived platitude. If your choices are either miss the mortgage, student loan payments, car payments, and other bills (not to mention risking losing your job entirely) or try to tough it out many people won’t even think twice about going to work sick. That’s just not going to happen.
dmsilev
See, for example, that asshole in St. Louis who thought that just because one member of his household had just come back from Italy and was showing Coronavirus symptoms, that was no reason to heed the self-quarantine order he agreed to because taking his daughter to a school dance was more important.
Anne Laurie
He already has — during his rallies last week, he promised to ‘block Mexico with his big beautiful wall’ to ‘prevent infection’. You can probably a clip in Aaron Rupar’s twitter feed, if you don’t wanna check Tucker Carlson applauding it on Fox.
Anya
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Obama should say snorting cocaine and drinking bleach will not prevent you from getting coronavirus so the Deplorables, including Trump, would commit to proving him wrong.
Mallard FIlmore
How far out are we from a situation that Italy has? Where there are no more critical care beds, hospital halls are full of very sick patients? Why are we still in the clear? When does it crash?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Looks like I picked the wrong week to start cocaine.
Anya
Biden is coughing in this interview. Let’s see what Trump and the Rose Twitter would say about that.
Major Major Major Major
@Mallard FIlmore: On February 27, Italy reported 650 cases and 17 deaths. Today, we are 560/22.
Martin
We’ve successfully done containment plenty of times. California fruit fly quarantine in the 80s (still ongoing at ports of entry for imports), post 9/11 security measures.
So, we were good to take our shoes off before getting on a plane, but not taking our temp or asking if we’ve been in an outbreak area. And we’re good at sitting in a line of cars at the CA border for an hour waiting for someone to check our truck for Florida oranges.
They may have had a ‘posture of containment’, but they had no willingness to actually take the actions of containment. So we did literally nothing to contain this.
A posture of mitigation sounds similarly realistic, but I still don’t see any willingness to take the actions of mitigation. So far the feds have given permission for other companies to ship tests. That’s it. There are no mitigation plans, just like there were no containment plans.
oldster
Yeah, I agree with the major Major: if Obama were still in charge, he would have handled this much, much better.
Oh wait: he *was* in charge during the Ebola scare, and he *did* handle it much better.
And Trump and the Republicans still weaponized it against him and used it in the mid-terms.
The trouble with our system is not that we are incapable of competent governance — we are. At least, the Democrats are.
No, the trouble is that there is no *reward* for competent governance. No drama Obama did a million things right, without drama. The way it should be. And got no credit for any of them.
It’s like those jackasses who set forest fires so that they can be the hero who fights them — there’s no praise for just doing the right thing and preventing fires. So if you want to grab headlines, you have to create crises. And then pretend you’re the hero. Blech.
We need competent people running our governments, people who know how to deal with facts and respond reasonably. In other words, Democrats.
And we need to destroy Facebook, Fox News, and all of the other enemies of democracy.
Mallard FIlmore
@Major Major Major Major: OK. Tonights network news from Italy was looking much more grim than that.
Major Major Major Major
@Mallard FIlmore: exponential growth is a hell of a drug.
So to answer your original question, a week and a half. Of course we have six times as many people, which may give us a couple weeks’ wiggle room.
The Dangerman
I guarantee to you that Trump and/or his rotten kids (Barron might be a good lad for all I know) has found a way to make bank on this clusterfuck (actually, it would have to improve markedly to only be a CF; what’s it called when a CF would figuratively see something and say, damn, that is fucked up?).
Mallard FIlmore
@Major Major Major Major: Too true. When does the math slam us? Next week? Next month? How far along Italy’s trajectory are we?
[add] I missed part 2 of your reply. Thanks for the estimate.
Gravenstone
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: No, but they can cure this thing called life. Especially if combined.
‘Snortin’ bleach and drinkin’ cocaine’ doesn’t have quite the same ring to it.
piratedan
Well, just remember, as this ramps up, they’ll be a run on medical supplies toot suite. By that I mean that caregivers will be running out of the normal items that they use everyday because of an increase on the volume of patients being seen. This means that where they can, the caregivers will have to re-use face masks and shields and conserve wherever they can as people panic and want to be tested to receive assurance that they’ll be “alright”. Disposable supplies will need to be stockpiled and special care taken with their disposal. Our facilities are already busy defining potential overflow rooms and beds to track the hypothetical increase in patients under the idea that its better to be prepared than not. We have tests defined and in place, testing guidelines are being adopted as well as caregiver guidelines for safely caring for these patients. Already limitations are in place for visiting members of family to try and reduce the vectors of potential infection. I’d like to assume plenty of other facilities have done the same, but not every facility operates in a large metro area with leadership trying to prep for worst case scenarios.
hells littlest angel
SARS, H1N1 and Ebola were Nature’s failed attempt to cut us down to size. Sooner or later she’s bound to get it right.
Aleta
The MBA model … administered by crooks in government offices.
When Le Page left office in Maine there were more than 100 unfilled positions in the ME CDC.
Major Major Major Major
@Mallard FIlmore: I wouldn’t put too much faith in it, but you’re welcome ?
Marcopolo
@Mallard FIlmore:
All depends on two things: 1) how many folks are out there with it now that we don’t know cause we aren’t yet doing really robust testing–which answers “Why are we still in the clear?” We probably aren’t but just don’t know it; and 2) how quickly it spreads to new people. I’ve seen models where all of the hospital beds in the US are filled by May (the actual week depending on rate of spread). And remember, just because it is a hospital bed doesn’t mean it is set up for quarantine ops or that the hospital has all of the respiratory equipment for the beds occupied by patients who need it.
This is why we really really need to bust our asses at mitigating the spread, flattening the curve.
Ruckus
A nice pleasant read on this fine evening.
Too bad it’s true.
We all knew that trump would totally fuck up, at the very least, something, if not everyfuckingthing, too bad it had to be something that can kill a lot of people, instead of just making them poor. And starving.
catclub
all the panic about ebola on fox news dried up the day after the midterms.
Martin
@Mallard FIlmore: Actually, once testing in volume starts. If the unicorn known as 1.5 million tests actually arrives, we’ll jump from 600 cases to probably 10K, and it’ll apparent that it’s everywhere. There’s community spread all over the US but there’s really only testing in WA, CA, NY, and even there not enough.
Raoul
For whatever good it may do, mega-corp Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden, Cheddars, Capital Grille, Yard House, etc) suddenly announced that their workers will all get paid sick time. There had been a worker campaign for years on this.
A ton of people talking about the risks of sick servers seems to have finally gotten thru their thick, cheap skulls. A lot more to do of course.
I’m seeing quite a few universities switching to online only for the rest of the semester. Many more dominoes like South by Southwest still to fall. I am sort of horrified that the Minneapolis Auto Show seems to still be happening. From what I’m reading out of Italy, all that non-essential shit should be shut down … NOW.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
West of the Cascades
We really are being governed by a bunch of dumbasses — Mark Meadows, incoming Chief of Staff (Chief Lickspittle) has self-quarantined because of interacting with CPAC Mary.
Anya
I am worried about the upcoming Bernie/Biden debate. I feel it’s going to be ugly. I am hoping if Bernie loses big tomorrow, he’ll do us all a favor and suspend his campaign.
Villago Delenda Est
@oldster:
With plenty of help from the vermin of the Village.
Wipe them out. All of them.
mrmoshpotato
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Oh FFS! Who’s trying to kill the rich and stupid, but also the stupid and stupid?
Major Major Major Major
Martin
@Mallard FIlmore: 1-2 weeks. It won’t be quite the same, because I don’t think we’ll be dumb enough to try and lock everyone down and then do something mostly resembling nothing.
But we’re basically just waiting for a verified outbreak. Guessing that’ll be Seattle, but it could be NYC or silicon valley. I think Santa Clara county is well over 50 cases.
Kent
Real life story about how we are responding here in the Pacific Northwest that my wife just related to me moments ago when she got home from work.
My wife is a primary care physician for a big HMO. She had a 23 year old patient call in who told her that she had a friend from Seattle stay with her over the weekend and her friend just called her to let her know that she tested positive for coronavirus. She wants to know what to do, should she get tested? Should she stay home from work?
My wife questions her:
Do you have any symptoms? -No
What do you do for a living? Dialysis tech at a dialysis center (i.e. working in close contact with with the most immuno-suppressed population in the entire country)
Do you have sick leave? No, I have to go to work to get paid.
My wife escalates the call up to her regional HMO coronavirus command center. Should she get tested? Should she stay home and self-quarantine?
The answer from the doctor who called her back? Since she has no symptoms we can’t do testing according to current CDC guidelines. And we can’t order her to self-quarantine. My wife takes the other doctor’s name down and puts it in the medical report, calls the girl back and tells her they can’t test her and can’t keep her home from work.
There you have it. That is how we are responding. Unless the entire country goes on complete lockdown, people like this will continue to go to work and live normal lives.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Martin
@Raoul: SXSW was cancelled a few days ago.
Ken
Tax cuts!
Tax cuts!
They really are the answer to everything.
Major Major Major Major
@Anya: no way he passes up the chance to use all his zingers and finish undermining party cohesion.
Raoul
Well, huh. Who could imagine this being squashed (via TIME):
“An annual intelligence report that has been postponed without explanation by President Donald Trump’s administration warns that the U.S. remains unprepared for a global pandemic, two senior government officials who have reviewed a draft of the report tell TIME.
The office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) was scheduled to deliver the Worldwide Threat Assessment to the House Intelligence Committee on Feb. 12 and the hearing has not been rescheduled, according to staffers and members of the House and Senate intelligence committees. The DNI’s office declined requests for a comment on the status of the report. Democratic staffers say they do not expect the report to be released any time soon.
The final draft of the report remains classified but the two officials who have read it say it contains warnings similar to those in the last installment, which was published on January 29, 2019. The 2019 report warns on page 29 that, “The United States will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.”
The 2019 warning was the third time in as many years that the nation’s intelligence experts said that a new strain of influenza could lead to a pandemic, and that the U.S. and the world were unprepared….”
Raoul
@Martin: Poor syntax on my part. Many events similar to SXSW yet to fall.
eta: as a former Austinite, of course nothing is really similar to that whores of babylon thing invading our once-lovely city. I was a SXSW Sux fan back in the day.
dmsilev
@Anya:
Sadly, I think that’s about as likely as Trump becoming competent.
mrmoshpotato
@Anya: Just wait until Wilmer has another heart attack during an interview, and Dump and Wilmer’s cult scream that he’ll be the best Democratic nominee ever.
Major Major Major Major
@Martin: it’ll probably be seattle, but considering how much SV has been sniffing their own farts over “understanding exponential growth and network effects”, I hope it’s there.
ETA not that I want my friends and loved ones to get sick, mind you
JMS
“Uniquely” smacks a bit of American exceptionalism. I think Iran at least is in the running. And the situation in Egypt looks likely to get out of control fast. And remember that some countries that are now getting good marks (China, S. Korea) had a lot of missteps early on that definitely led to more spread. I’m not saying things are good here, but saying we’re the worst is myopic.
Martin
@Raoul: Why the fuck didn’t Obama create a US Pandemic Response Team then? He really should have created a US Pandemic Response Team in the event of a US Pandemic in need of a Response.
Bad Obama.
hitchhiker
Our younger daughter had a doctor’s appt in Seattle this morning, so she spent the night with us in our little apartment. (She lives a ferry ride + an hour’s drive away.)
She went to her appt, walked down the hill to the boat, caught a bus on the other side, and made it to work in the afternoon. Her office sells all kinds of insurance, and they see a fair number of elderly people confused about medicare and its various parts.
Around 2 pm, we get a text from her saying that one of her co-workers has been sick and has been told to get tested. It develops that this co-worker took 3 days off last week b/c cough, fever, etc, and then CAME BACK TO WORK today, still sick but out of paid days off.
This is a small office, maybe 8 or 9 people there at any given time.
Our daughter is freaking out b/c of the possibility that she was carrying it, and gave it to us last night. When we talked a little while ago, she said that this co-worker’s doctor did put her in quarantine, and that there will be results on Friday.
All in all, what you’d expect to happen in any rural community where people feel lucky to have work at all, can’t really take days off, don’t follow complicated news about exponential functions and China, and half-believe that this is mostly hype.
No urgency. No sweat. No big deal. This is how come the function is still exponential, and how come it will stay that way. It may be that in our fragmented news culture, NO administration would be capable of managing this information in a focused, timely, comprehensive, far-reaching way. But we have the WORST POSSIBLE assholes in charge right now. It’s just mind-blowing.
debbie
Well, Ohio State has canceled all in-person classes through the end of the month. Students are all on spring break, and no one’s sure what to do about the students who have traveled out of the country for break.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
The charge nurse on the floor tonight at my hospital where I have clinical recently travelled to Central America by plane. She doesn’t take any of this seriously and thinks this will end up like the 2014 Ebola epidemic.
She’s dreaming. And a lot of the other students don’t take it all that seriously either
Another Scott
@Marcopolo: I assume we’ll know more if they announce how many people on that Princess ship in Oakland are actually infected. The only test results I’ve heard were the test done 3 days ago. When they tested 46 people and found 21 infections.
3 days ago.
And Pence was still using that 21 number this evening.
It doesn’t pass the smell test. Grrr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Anya
@Major Major Major Major:
7-minute speech,
establishment,
Joe voted for the Iraq war. I voted against it.
Joe voted for NAFTA. I voted against it.
Am I missing anything?
mrmoshpotato
@West of the Cascades: If only these fuckers had a competent President to deal with a crisis…
ant
I believe that Trump and his people want it to spread as fast as possible to increase the chances that it will be all forgotten by November.
Might work too!
debbie
@Anya:
Joe doesn’t like Cuba like I like Cuba.
Major Major Major Major
@Anya: Sleepy Joe wanted this debate to be sitting down. Why can’t Sleepy J-J-Joe stand up like a healthy person?
mrmoshpotato
Won’t fucking happen. See Pouty Ass at the 2016 DNC for reference.
Ohio Mom
Like a lot of people, I assumed Trump’s big screwup would be getting us in a war and killing a lot of people in another country. Instead, he’s going to kill a lot of people in this country.
Eolirin
@ant: Given that it disproportionately kills old people, that would be a fantastic way to kill off a good 10-15% of their most dedicated voters ahead of the election.
They’re not trying to accomplish anything here, they’re just incompetent.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
Yeah, this is hitting kind of close to home right now. We had somebody sent home and going through testing at my building in Albuquerque this morning. First a flu test (2=3 days turn-around time) before attempting a Covid-19 test.
I had to talk down two grad students, but at least I finished the work to have remote group meetings.
It’s probably just the flu, there have been negative tests before, but I really don’t want my building to be first Covid-19 case in the state.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
Kent State hasn’t canceled classes yet. But is “closely monitoring the situation”. They have COVID-19 page up: They have COVID-19 page up
hitchhiker
@Kent:
That’s … I just can’t.
ant
@Eolirin: They didn’t think about or care about the people that will die.
They’re just focused on themselves and maintaining power.
oldster
@Kent:
Jesus. That story is sickening. The woman works with dialysis patients, and she may be infecting them with the coronavirus. And her employers won’t give her time off with pay.
This country has got to change its ways. We need a sick-leave policy, and a child-care policy.
Oh, and we also have to destroy Facebook and Fox News.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@ant:
The economic effects from this will definitely be around in November at the very least
Eolirin
@Kent: I think the most maddening thing about that is that that person is trying to do the right thing, and we’re not letting them.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@oldster: I’ve heard a saying. “Every regulation is written in blood.”
Major Major Major Major
I for one will be working from home five days a week. Probably cook a lot? No gym until we see what’s going on. Will still patronize grocery store for fresh ingredients I think.
ant
Id be curious to know why they’re not testing people. There has to be an explanation.
Dan B
@Kent: Inslee has said there has been discussion about more serious measures in response to a question about travel bans. It sounds like they are trying to get paid sick leave, at least US Senator Patty Murray D WA introduced legislation last week.
Would local corporations and billionaires set up a temporary system to reimburse those who should skip work? It would be a technical nightmare to administer but do Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc. have the means to scale? Sure would be great PR (if not a nightmare).
The Dangerman
@Major Major Major Major:
Anywhere on the West Coast is the answer. Someone infected hops the Amtrak, infects the train, and the entire West Coast is potentially impacted. Or hops on I5 for the same effect. Much more efficient than a plane that is only point to point (and is hopefully being well cleaned after each landing).
Just for example, I was in downtown today and a Dude basically coughs in my face from well inside 6 feet (closer to 6 inches than 6 feet). There isn’t a lab decontamination shower in any proximity, so it is what it is. I’ve washed hands like crazy and one cough could potentially do the trick (highly unlikely, but I worry about the somewhat mobile transients, or the real mobile people that pick here and there and everywhere.
Fun times.
ETA: And I just got a cold call from one of the gyms in the area; first time that has happened in years. They must be getting squeezed hard.
Eolirin
@ant: You don’t maintain power by killing your voters. No one is gaming this out. Nothing is being done with deliberateness. Trump is acting on impulse and everyone else is either clueless or constrained by the failures at the top. There’s no hidden purpose to any of it, no strategy. Just rank incompetence and a hollowing out of our institutional ability to respond to this sort of crisis.
Barbara
@Anya: California is in the rear view mirror. They’re flailing.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@ant: Two things: First, positive cases are bad TV that can weaken our power. Second, If there isn’t money to be made, why do I care?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Major Major Major Major: have you (or anyone) seen any advice on food? would cooking kill any bugs that might get on food? Not thrilled to think about people coughing on my salmon filets, but I’m sure it happens. I know the people who work the counter at least put on latex gloves for each new customer.
Eolirin
@Dan B: https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2020/03/09/microsoft-donates-1-million-covid-19-response/
Gvg
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): yes, but….there have been some overhyped false alarms and people are raised on the boy who cried wolf. I don’t know what to do about it either.
in addition as someone who has been poor with no real hope and raised out of it because my parents had resources…I can tell you when there is nothing you can do about it, don’t think about it and try to stay cheerful is rational. Because sometimes you can a break latter on and being depressed or Eyeore is not helpful.
now infecting other people is a problem, but it’s not one we have a lot of practice in thinking correctly about.
piratedan
@ant: multiple reasons
ant
Not testing feels deliberate to me.
The choices made with the test kits had a reason. Those choices are still being made. Know one has been fired, or taken responsibility for it.
I wish to know why.
Major Major Major Major
@The Dangerman: Last I read, I every(?) sequenced case in the US is from the washington cluster, which arrived in mid-January descended from a Wuhan cluster. The epicenter will be (is) there, but the biggest effects will probably be felt in one of those nearby PST cities.
Adam L Silverman
@Anya: He won’t.
Barbara
@ant: The first explanation is that CDC wanted its own test, except they screwed it up. Rather than buying the WHO test they just decided to ration testing. At some point, our idiot president liked the idea of having so few positives. I have no idea whether someone tried to explain that it was impossible to characterize it that way when you aren’t actually testing people. I have no idea whether his bit of idiocy actually slowed testing down, because it seems like there just weren’t enough tests to do surveillance testing when it might have helped.
Where it has “escaped” on a fairly wide scale in the community, doing lots of testing doesn’t necessarily make sense for people without symptoms, for the same reason people don’t go out and get a flu test unless they have symptoms. Resources are probably better deployed elsewhere.
No one is admitting or explaining what happened. It feels like the CDC has done more to impede than to help.
The Dangerman
@ant:
Sure. If the real numbers (or something approaching the real numbers as opposed to straight bullshit, no chaser numbers), there would be enough bricks shit to finish Trump’s wall.
Eolirin
@ant: I suspect there may have been a money motive in going with the more complex test. But at minimum bad hires and a hollowing out of institutional knowledge at the CDC. If they really wanted to prevent tests they wouldn’t have opened the rules at all and they wouldn’t be trying to increase the number of available tests.
I don’t think Fauci is lying to us when he says they’re doing things. I think there’s a ton of interference making it take much longer than it should, and that a lot of that interference is on the order of shitty bosses trying to micromanage stuff that is beyond them because they need to feel in control and not deliberate conspiracies to accomplish some strategic agenda.
This administration has proven time and time again that it’s incapable of strategy. It lurches from impulse to impulse.
Kent
More details. The big question is whether this 23 year old should go back to work at the private dialysis clinic.
My wife asks her. “What does your employer say?” – They say to do whatever YOU (my doctor) say I should do.
My wife says: “Well, you should probably stay home and self-quarantine just to be safe. But I can’t order you to do that, I don’t have that authority.”
Her patient responds: “I can’t stay home from work unless I have a letter from my doctor requiring me to, because we don’t have sick leave.”
My wife: “Well, the official coronavirus command center says you don’t qualify for testing because you have no symptoms and without testing we can’t order you to stay home.”
This is our health care system currently in operation. And my wife works for one of the good ones. Absent a complete government-ordered quarantine and shut down they can’t simply order every single person without symptoms who might have come into contact with coronavirus to self-quarantine and stay home.
We are fucking doomed, aren’t we?
Martin
UC San Diego will shift to online only starting Spring quarter (3/30).
The quarter based campuses are in finals next week, and spring break the week after, so a lot of us are just trying to get through next week.
UC Berkeley is semester based so they’re in a different place in the cycle.
debbie
@Major Major Major Major:
For how long?
At my work, they’re having groups of people work from home for 30 days. Since no one’s thought to have Covid-19, this seems kind of excessive.
Major Major Major Major
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
with the caveat that I am a librarian/software engineer…
that’s why we started cooking food in the first place, isn’t it? I don’t know any specifics, but these viruses are pretty fragile little buggers so I imagine normal heat ranges would kill them. Soap also kills them (at a chemical level, ask Cheryl).
mrmoshpotato
Ugh. I think I’ll continue watching people getting attacked by monsters in The Mist to feel better.
Viva BrisVegas
That’s very considerate of Trump, but it’s not going to keep the infection out of Mexico.
Mallard Filmore
@Martin: We are way behind with testing, so our numbers are way too low. I was wondering why this has not exploded here like it has in Italy. How did we get so lucky?
Eolirin
@Kent: What I said at #66, but even moreso. If that person gets sick and if any of the people at her clinic get sick or worse die after that I’m pretty sure she’s going to be devastated.
Martin
San Diego State University. Floodgates are opening.
Poe Larity
Viri want to be free, and containment is wishful. We could eradicate it in the US tomorrow, and economic drivers would open those JFK flights to Milan just one day too early six months from now and restart the whole process over again.
Short of cheap, more accurate daily home test kits being widely available we’re going to have to await a vaccine.
The cultural effects long term may exceed the economic ones. People are still scarred from 9/11 and 99% never saw it in person.
Major Major Major Major
@debbie: I’ve worked remote for weeks at a stretch before. Most of the team is in San Francisco.
Eolirin
@Mallard Filmore: Give it a week or two.
gwangung
Actually, no….I don’t think it is. The idea is to deny infection paths….and when it’s too late when you have one.
Adam L Silverman
@Raoul: That’s been in almost every national intelligence estimate that I can remember going back a decade. I’m amazed it took this long for someone to leak that.
Martin
@Mallard Filmore: We’re a geographically larger country. California is about ⅓ larger than Italy geographically, but only ⅔ the size in terms of population. So they’re interacting more than we do.
California has about as many cases as Italy did 2 weeks ago. We’re moving a bit faster than them at dealing with this, and have a more compliant population, so social distancing is working better here. But we should be moving much faster.
chris
Universal healthcare? We haz it! A rickety and strained system to be sure but we has it. Don’t get me started on allowing fucking politicians any where near your healthcare.
There no known cases of COVID-19 in Nova Scotia. Yet. But today, Tuesday, the government is setting up testing stations in all the hospitals in the province. They’re trying to get ahead of things and keep already strained emergency rooms from being swamped. So for now, if you feel sick, you can call the govt. health number and discuss it with an RN or NP. If they think it wise they’ll tell you where to go at your local hospital or clinic. There was also mention of a portable test that could be administered by paramedics but I’m waiting to hear more about that.
And, no, there won’t be a bill. Just that fucking $4.00 parking fee.
Genine Tyson
@PenAndKey: That’s why I am really happy with where I work. People can work from home if they needed. If they have a job that cannot be done from home, the organization will give them up to two weeks of paid leave before they need to use their sick days or pto.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: Let us know when THE Ohio State takes action. Then we’ll know it’s serious!//
.
Oh, I agree with you entirely. My wife is frustrated as hell. This is the kind of shit that is happening thousands of times a day across the country because NO ONE IS IN CHARGE. Decisions just get passed along because there is no final authority or guidelines on anything, and where there is, they are too vague or narrow to apply to every situation that doesn’t exactly fit the guideline.
One advantage we have here in the US, is that most of the population naturally lives much more isolated lives due to our wealth and space. China is packed full of people relying on public trains, subways, buses, elevators, crowded streets and markets, living in tall apartment blocks, riding crowded elevators. Outside of a few big cities, most Americans live pretty isolated lives in the suburbs with our cars and big houses, and we can socially separate much much easier than in more densely packed countries where people rely on public transportation and crowded facilities much more.
Major Major Major Major
@Mallard Filmore: fewer smokers, worse transit, idk
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
They tucked away the THE for its own safety. ?
.
why is my comment #103 in moderation?
Adam L Silverman
@Kent:
Every dialysis center in the US is owned by the nephrologists who are on the local transplant teams. They may be incorporated through shells and/or as LLCs, but the ultimate owners are the nephrologists and the local transplant teams. So she literally works for physicians.
Sure Lurkalot
@Ohio Mom: Bingo!
Adam L Silverman
@.: @.: I’ve freed both of them, but it might have something to do with the fact that your nym for posting appears to be a period. Who are you? Who are you supposed to be?
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: That’s gotta be Kent, no?
Adam L Silverman
@chris: It’s the curse of Oak Island. A seventh must die before the island reveals its secrets.//
Adam L Silverman
@Eolirin: Perhaps. But we can’t be too safe these days…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
How much faith do you have in DeWine and Amy Acton of the ODH to handle this in Ohio. I admit I don’t pay as much attention to state politics as much as I should. DeWine seems like an empty suit
Kent
@Adam L Silverman: Yes it was me. I don’t know where they period came from. Must have mis-typed it somehow.
Kelly
@Martin:
Californians are not distributed smoothly. I suspect urban Californians and urban Italians interact at similar rates.
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: Fair enough. Gotta watch out for those chicken-duck-woman-things
Kent
The lesson is, we can’t rely on people and organizations individually to always do the right thing in hundreds of thousands of individual decisions across the country. People don’t want that responsibility and there is always inertia. People and organizations have to be TOLD what to do, especially of there is no profit involved, or the decisions negatively affect profit.
As of now, there is no one telling people what to do.
L85NJGT
@Kelly:
California is younger and smokes less.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: I’ll need you to email me a photo with you holding today’s paper for confirmation.
(also, and keep this to yourself, if you’re being held hostage, blink twice in the picture and we’ll send help!//)
Adam L Silverman
@Kelly:
I hate lumpy Californians.//
debbie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Well, he is a conservative.
But he’s better than Kasich in that he is sincere in his compassion. DeWine would never throw anyone under the bus. The ODH director is relatively new. This is the first time I’ve seen her.
frosty
@The Dangerman:
Goat Rodeo (cf Urban Dictionary)
Fair Economist
@Kent:OMFG, that is so bad.
@Barbara:
Every country that looks to have gotten a lid on this (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and probably S. Korea) has done so with extensive testing. Testing is essential to avoid disaster. Resources are not a problem. There are a gazillion labs in the US that could run the test. Not enough contact tracers, but we could hire them. We can do it.
In addition, like extreme social distancing, in the end we *will* do it because we will have to. The sooner we start the better.
emjayay
@PenAndKey: We have very few worker protections on a national scale. The federal minimum wage is a joke, an indication of how Republicans have made federal legislation impossible. It’s by state and locality. deBlasio (and the NYC city council, whatever it’s called) got mandatory sick leave and health insurance (and also free pre-K) into law, which also is helpful for sick parents not to mention parents in general) enacted. Maybe in some other places also.
Even good stuff probably doesn’t apply to a lot of gig workers. For a fictional look at the situation of working class people today, only in the UK, see Ken Loach’s new film Sorry We Missed You.
Raven Onthill
Andy Slavitt estimates eight weeks to widespread availability of tests: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1237081444117348354?s=20
Accounts from Italy are coming in. They are harrowing. We didn’t get these from China because China kept the lid on. Here’s one by Dr. Daniele Macchini, translated by epidemiologist Silvia Stringhini. (The Italian original is linked at the end.)
different-church-lady
Jesus Christ, don’t you know Elon Musk is going to solve all of this with technology if we just get out of his way?
Odie Hugh Manatee
I’m waiting for Hair Furor to argue that killing off the old, weak and infirm is actually good for our economy. It gets rid of people on government programs that they no longer contribute to, like Social Security and MediCare. It frees up the assets of those that die, giving them to people who will spend quite a bit of the money and thus generate more economic activity.
Because that’s the way that the UK government sounds on Sky TV (which I watch for entertainment). It’s just the few olds dying so you young ones can sally forth and generate economic activity! I just about died laughing when I heard that they were floating the idea of banning those 70 and older from football matches to protect them from infection, ignoring the fact that those at the stadium probably have more than a few old people that they will want to visit after the game. Now we have the Orange Asshole out shaking hands with everybody in an attempt to show that there’s nothing to be afraid of. He’s betting on not getting sick and thus being able to crow that it’s all a hoax to take him down.
I really hope the fucker gets infected and gets it good and nasty, as I do every single Republican in office who supports him. They’ve earned it.
cain
@oldster:
A class action lawsuit will help them wake up.
Chris Johnson
@Booger: If you can get through Shock Doctrine, the end is sort of a ray of hope: talks about cultural memory being a weapon against this sort of thing. That said, I almost couldn’t make it through myself. That is a tough, tough book and it is heavily documented and footnoted. These are our enemies.
This is why I was for Bernie in 2016, and Warren in 2020. Anyone playing that ‘disaster capitalism’ game is our enemy. (cue trolls arguing that Biden is such an enemy: news flash, he was the senator of Delaware, I’d chalk it up to political pressure. Someone like Cheney is more the instigator)