HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Senior adviser says Democratic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will file to run for Senate against Republican Steve Daines.
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) March 9, 2020
Governor Bullock (D-MT) is about the only Democrat in Montana who has a plausible chance of flipping that Senate seat.
Right now, the Democrats need to net at least three seats and the VP for control or a net of four flips for outright control.
The Cook Political Report has the current state of play as the Dems down a seat (Alabama) with four GOP seats in Toss-up (North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, Colorado). Recent polling by one firm has all four of the Republican candidates trailing by a handful of points. There are a few other “stretch” seats that are currently leaning Republican but could get swept up in a wave. Adding Montana to that list increases the number of plausible pathways to a slim Democratic majority next January.
Thank you for sharing some good news.
Good news, increasing the number of paths to winning is the way forward. I’m particularly pleased with the prospect of shaking off Susan Collins— seems to me her prospects are past the ‘tossup’ stage, but it’s still early days.
Also worth noting, Bullock was term-limited out of Montana’s governorship. The Senate is a sensible next step for him (say, as opposed to the Presidency).
The dream is McConnell, Collins, and Graham all lose.
Yet another upside to Biden on the top of the ticket…the increased possibility of flipping Senate seats. Then we might have a chance to actually pass some real legislation as opposed to waiting on the “revolution”.
Kay (not the front-pager)
Good news! It would be awesome to have 2/two/II Democratic senators from bright red Montana. I have family there, and they will be happy with another Democrat representing them in the Senate.
I’m bullish on our chances of taking back the Senate this year. Susan Collins is well past her sell-by date and has a good challenger. Kelly against McSally (who wasn’t able to win election & had to be appointed) is running well in AZ. Cunningham is leading Tillis in NC. Jamie Harrison is only a few points down from Graham in SC. Cory Gardner is weak. Even Joni Ernst is vulnerable. Bullock running in MT makes taking the Senate an easier lift.
Good news on Bullock. this makes a lot more sense than his quixotic Presidential run and he has a pretty good chance of winning.
Also better for the country at large. Good for him.
Cook has a policy/habit of being extraordinarily reluctant to move incumbents past TOSS-UP until the evidence and the environment is overwhelming.
JONES (D-AL) is Lean GOP as the state is Trump+28 and the GOP challenger will not have a reputation of creeping on teenage girls at the mall food court. That is the type of situation it takes for COOK to move an incumbent to an underdog status this early.
I don’t think Collins, or Tillis are there yet; Gardner in Colorado is getting to that point.
I’m reading Joni Ernst in Iowa is looking shaky these days as well.
I did an analysis of Cook House ratings over several cycles. Lean was about 85% to the leaning party. Likely was 97% to the likely party. Solid only ever had one slip and that was in a Louisiana runoff election where the incumbent had money in his freezer.
Let’s hope Joni Ernst will prove past her sell-by electability date in November. Have the Iowa Ds nominated a strong candidate to run against her?
Thank you Governor Bullock! Will he be added to the BJ Senate fund?
@guachi: When was the analysis performed? Last ratings before the election or 8 months out (like now)?
I would love to take the time for the 2010, 2014 and 2018 elections and track the movements of seats over the entire ratings/electoral cycle as I would think that the seats that flip that did not start off as TOSS-UP or worse would migrate to TOSS-UP over time.
This is excellent (if unsurprising at this point, since his plans started to come out last week) news.
This is unambiguously good news. I also observe that he first publicly expressed interest right after Biden won on Super Tuesday.
I wonder if Biden now being the presumptive nominee had anything to do with Bullock finally jumping in? I know Colin Peterson (MN Congress) finally announced a couple days ago he would try to hold his seat. It’s a district Trump won by 20+ points—most Trump leaning D held congressional district, and it’s widely believed he only did so because Biden will be the nominee.
Anonymous At Work
Biden’s primary wins revealed just how strong and deep the “Get rid of Trump” elecorate is. Hopefully, persuade any other reluctant top tier candidates to get off their asses. 2018-like wave would be huge.
I’m really interested to see what the matchup looks like for Cornyn in Texas once we get past the Democratic runoff.
He is not as unpopular a Cruz, but he fully supported Trump during the impeachment.
It seems to me that it had to be a factor, and maybe a big one. It’s one thing to jump into a race when you think the guy on the top of the ticket might lose by 20% and another entirely if you think it will be 40%.
The stars may be aligning for a blue wave again this year:
Stock Market in free fall
Just the overwhelming disgust with Trump by everyone who is not in the cult
“Known entity” at the top of the ticket without 25+ year smear campaign like the last nominee
If there are quality candidates who have not decided to get into their races (no matter the level), it’s now or never. It’s going to be 2008 all over again, the country on fire and competence will be required to bring it back from the brink.
Netting at least three seats probably means flipping at least four seats, because Doug Jones is almost certainly a goner. There was an outside chance he might have been able to keep it if Roy Moore had gotten the GOP nomination, but that opportunity died last week. Either Sessions or Tuberville will be 15+ point favorites to take the seat back.
The best news I’ve heard since I found out Ted Cruz and Paul Gosar were being quarantined for coronavirus.
For context, here is tweet thread regarding polling out today. Caveat: only one poll & any poll is only a snapshot in time & doesn’t necessarily hold predictive value for Nov. However, the numbers look awful for Sanders & not great for Trump. There are a lot of folks who just want a steady hand at the wheel & everything else is just a sideshow.
Anonymous At Work
@janesays: Sessions got the most votes and it’ll be an unusual situation where Trump will probably NOT support Sessions, and may in fact attack Sessions during the general election run up.
That might be the only reason that Jones isn’t a per se goner.
@lee: A Texas poll last fall showed ~33% approval, 33% disapprove, 33% no opinion for Cornyn. Thought to show vulnerability. MJ Hegar came in first in the Texas primary and will most likely be the Democratic nominee. She is worth checking out, has a very good introductory video. In 2018 she lost a close Congressional race in district redder than Texas as a whole. Similar to McGrath in Kentucky. McGrath was a Marine fighter pilot, Hegar an Air force Force search and rescue helicopter pilot. When she was shot down and wounded in Afghanistan, Hegar had to strap herself to an Army helicopter skid and flew out firing her automatic rifle at the insurgents. Her story is being made into a movie. She also successfully challenged the Pentagon’s policy on women in combat jobs.
Trivia: Montana actually has a long history of electing Democrats to the senate. From the 20th century on, only one Republican Senator has been re-elected, Conrad burns.
My hope for Colorado getting rid of Cory Gardner (R trumpist) fell like a ton of bricks after Saturday caucuses when Andrew Romanov led the pack. He’s run in two races in the last 6 years, one against Michael Bennet for senate and one for CD6 representative. He lost both of them, but he’s the progressive fave here in a state that voted for Sanders on super Tuesday. He may be the only candidate who can lose to Gardner. (And caucuses should be outlawed.)
The wildcard for the Senate is that a few of them might die of COVID-19 before the election. Senators are not the youngest people.
@Carol: Caucuses suck. In 2018 I was in VA6th, and I watched the VA5th Democrats pick a mediocre candidate from DC who had a weekend home at the far northern end of the district. She lost by 7 points. I live VA5 now, and the Dems are going caucus. They saw Sexton, Spanberger and Luria flip districts after winning caucuses. The dumbass Republicans are going the caucus route to choose between the one term incumbent and a challenger from the right. A small tent losing strategy that lets the religious fanatics and Tea Party cranks call the shots. Good pickup opportunity for the Democrats.
@Princess: I wonder if that means that he thinks Biden getting the nomination would increase his chances of winning his senate big. Is there any other way to take that
edit: I see that about a hundred people got there before I did.
@janesays: I don’t know. This could be the year where decency wins out. (she said hopefully)