As a result of the novel Coronavirus and COVID-19, as well as the President’s and his administration’s failure to competently respond to it, the United States of May 2020, let alone November 2020, will be unrecognizable from the United States of January and February 2020.The novel Coronavirus and COVID-19 is going to scramble American politics, society, and economics. And possibly religion when someone who is not-Catholic and pregnant goes into a Catholic hospital because it’s the only health facility available and dies from Coronavirus because she can’t get an abortion. I’m not sure what the US will be come June, let alone November, but it is going to be unrecognizable to the US of the past two months.
Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer have demanded that the President include a relief package for Americans who may become infected with COVID-19, become caretakers for those who do, and/or lose their employment or small businesses as a result of the novel Coronavirus. This includes paid sick leave and expanded unemployment assistance to keep dollars flowing so that Americans can pay their bills, which will also keep liquidity in the economy. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced that he is going to submit a bill to the NY state legislature to provide paid sick leave to New Yorkers who are quarantined. I expect that as the novel Coronavirus spreads and the number of COVID-19 infections increase, that we’ll see more Democratic led states take similar action to what Governor Cuomo is undertaking and what Speaker Pelosi and Senator Schumer are calling for. I expect that most Republican led states, especially in the deep south (old Confederacy) and the border states that have been colonized by neo-Confederates will not. They’ll scream for Federal assistance and then do what they always do when it comes in – use it to plug other budgetary holes by creating a series of means and administrative tests that make it almost impossible for anyone to qualify.
But other changes are coming as well. One of the most difficult problem that universities have had in trying to do distance education is getting it to scale. As well as to overcome the real differences in effects between having in person access to the faculty in the classroom versus virtual access in a virtual classroom. As more universities and colleges transition to a virtual model to prevent transmission, I expect that we will see pressure build to maintain this transition once the crisis passes. And that pressure will come from administrators, boards of trustees, and state legislators for public universities as it will be cheaper. There will also be calls to maintain more of this capacity because it would open up opportunities for students who can’t afford the campus experience of tuition, fees, room, and board, but could afford a remote education. And this will eventually trickle down to high schools. I grew up on a university campus, have advanced degrees in four disciplines, and am now a recovering academic, so I can honestly say that if there is a way for money to be made by a university without having to pay for tenured faculty, administrators will support it.
You’re also going to see an increase in self directed social distancing. People will change their behavior regarding going to restaurants as they aren’t going to want to risk having someone they don’t know and can’t see preparing and handling their food and drinks. You’re going to see a similar issue at the grocery store as people are going to start avoiding the deli counter, the butcher and seafood counters, and the deli because they just are not going to risk having these products handled even by people in gloves and hair nets. Concerts, sporting events, religious services, and other group social events are going to be effected. Several sporting events have already announced that they will be played, but without onsite spectators. Japan is considering this for the upcoming summer Olympics. I have no idea what the Qataris are considering for the World Cup next year, but they are so far behind as it is, that who knows what they’re going to do.
The airline industry, the cruise ship industry, the travel and hospitality industries in general – all of them are going to go through serious upheaval. As will the nursing home, assisted living, and long term elder care industries. Risks of infections are always a threat in these facilities because the populations are those at highest risks. But now you’ve got people in Kirkland, WA screaming that their parents and grandparents are being sentenced to death because they’ve been quarantined in the nursing home that is suffering the outbreak. You’re going to see a similar problem in prisons and jails. Basically any place that people are housed for extended periods are going to be at risk for an outbreak. And the effects of an outbreak are going to force changes and reforms.
And we’re going to get a real time experiment of just how well or poorly the national, state, and local public health systems work when they are consistently underfunded or defunded. As well as whether a for profit health insurance and health care system can actually do what it has long claimed it can do: more effectively and efficiently provide care than governmental based system in the US could. I have my doubts, but Anderson is the man to keep us apprised of this.
By the time the election rolls around in November 2020, the United States is going to be a very different country – state, society, and economy – than it is today and has been for the first two months of 2020. The Democratic National Committee is already making plans for a virtual nominating convention. I doubt the Republican National Committee will because the President wants to have his spectacle, which is why he has made it clear they are going to keep doing rallies despite the negative follow on effects from CPAC. Pressure will build to make rapid changes to state election laws to either extend vote by mail/absentee voting for the November 2020 general election or go to complete vote by mail/absentee voting for it.
Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen – politically, socially/societally, economically – between now and November 2020 other than the obvious of a widespread novel Coronavirus and COVID-19 outbreak and epidemic and the resultant political, social, and economic disruptions is talking out of their tuchas. All of the pressure and stress that builds up as a result of what is happening could provide the opportunity for the US to move in a far better direction in terms of social insurance; health care funding, access, and coverage; and sound social safety nets. Or it could provide the opportunity for even more regressive and reactionary policies and practices. Either way, a lot is going to change. How much and in which direction are the outstanding questions.
Open thread.
brendancalling
I live in Nashville, where I work as a scenic carpenter and a stage hand (despite a very long resume and career as a writer, including a 3 year stint at Raw Story, I have been unable to find adequate writing or editing work in nearly a year). A huge chunk of the city’s revenue is from conventions and tourism, and that is expected to crater very quickly (they shut down the AT&T building just today). The season was already slow, but I expect to be de fact unemployed soon.
And wait til Trump uses his presidential powers to suspend elections or similar: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/01/presidential-emergency-powers/576418/
RepubAnon
I’m guessing Trump will surf the panic, and use it to require electronic voting only. As there will be no paper trail, he’ll “win”
chopper
don’t forget the homeless population. here in WA many live in clusters or even tent cities, and are many times not people in the best physical condition sleeping outside in a wet, cold tent. i’m really afraid of what could happen to those poor souls.
Avalune
It’s my understanding prisoners in Italy had a protest and some are dead now – with regard to mention of prisons above.
Avalune
In other news, I have been getting lists of independent fiber vendors expecting to struggle immensely as most of their income comes from fiber festivals currently being canceled. Kind of a please go buy stuff from these guys because they are screwed list. Same with the art community.
LuciaMia
If your state allows, send for an absentee ballot today!
Rusty
Fuck. Losing my job, start the new one three weeks from today (and finishing this one the Friday before, we can’t afford any time without a paycheck). New job is 360 miles and two states away. Frantically trying to pull the house together to sell, need to find one there to buy so the kids can start in the schools there this fall, and scraping together what we can financially to bridge from one house to the next. All in the middle of this with all the uncertainty. Will the job be there and stay? Can we sell with the uncertainty? Are we buying at a peak that won’t come back (it’s a more expensive housing market). Fuck.
Avalune
@Rusty: Oh sorry to hear… pretty crummy timeline to have that on your plate in…
joel hanes
@Rusty:
Consider renting for a while.
Barbara
@Rusty: I don’t know your situation at all so I wont’ suggest anything, but wish you the best of luck.
ETA: Second the suggestion for renting, although I know it can be hard to find a rental in a super heated housing market. Still, better to proceed with some caution if you can.
Kylroy
“…whether a for profit health insurance and health care system can actually do what it has long claimed it can do: more effectively and efficiently provide care than governmental based system in the US could.”
My biggest fear is that the US healthcare system will work quickly and efficiently for the top 10%, while the rest of the population gets third-world level care. As long as that top 10% doesn’t feel much pain, our policies won’t change.
Chyron HR
How the hell are Bernie’s delegates supposed to boo civil rights leaders at a VIRTUAL convention? RIGGED MUCH??
White & Gold Purgatorian
Interesting times, dammit!
The DIY hand sanitizer recipe was posted again in one of the morning threads. There is no alcohol left in our local stores in spite of not a single case confirmed in this state — but they only started testing late last week. Anyway, if anyone still needs hand sanitizer and can’t buy or make it, you might check out online suppliers for lotion/soap crafting. I’ve ordered a gallon from bulk apothecary for us to share locally and sent a gallon to my sister for her to share with local family. I don’t have it in hand yet so can’t personally vouch for their hand sanitizer but have been happy with soap and lotion making supplies from them in the past. It is alcohol based and comes in 3 sizes, 16 oz., 1 gallon or a 55 gallon drum.
Yutsano
Washington is vote by mail. So at least we’ll be casting our ballots around. I’m just going to avoid the poll workers and drop off at the slot next to the court house as normal.
Suzanne
@Rusty: I am similarly freaking out. My house is supposed to go on the market this Friday. Arrrrrrrgh.
DRickard
You think there’s gonna be an election in November? You optimistic fool! DOPUS is gonna use COVID-19 as an excuse to declare a state of emergency and cancel the election, with never-ending promises to hold it once the situation normalizes… promises he’ll be repeating on his death bed as he anoints Donnie Jr as the next “president”.
Gin & Tonic
You’re a fucking ray of sunshine, Adam.
Duane
The NCAA plans to go ahead with all the basketball tournaments as scheduled. This seems like a perfect plan to spread the virus with so much air travel and close contact with people from varying geographic regions. Hopefully they rethink this.
Repatriated
@DRickard: Yes, I do. Elections are run by states, not by the Feds.
There may be ways to screw up the elections at the Fed level, but outright cancellation isn’t an available option.
JPL
@Duane: The final four is in Atlanta. Good times.
Chetan Murthy
@Kylroy:
That’s the thing about epidemics: b/c he rich are surrounded by servants and toadies, a health care system that surrounds them with carriers of disease isn’t actually any use to them, either. Not much consolation to all those poor people, but at least, the rich can’t hide from this.
NotMax
@DRickard
Elections are run by and controlled by each state, not by the fed.
The Dangerman
Can we quickly pass an amendment saying no sexually assaulting the flag on stages?
i don’t think Trump can fuck with the election enough to actually win; I do see him bitching and moaning when his ass gets kicked. People are going to be pissssssed and he will lose. It will all have been so unfair to him. /s
its good windows on Wall Street don’t open any longer. The slide is just getting started.
beef
One silver lining for those worried about house sales and purchases: interest rates are quite low right now.
Cheryl Rofer
Good post, Adam. I agree that we have no idea what is coming.
The American Chemical Society has canceled its national meeting, which was scheduled for the week of March 22 in Philadelphia. The attendees at national meetings number in the tens of thousands.
JPL
Weekly I grind my coffee at Fresh Market and today I decided to order a coffee grinder in case I need to stay closer to home. I also voted early today because who knows what will be happening on the 24th. trump world is not any fun at all.
West of the Cascades
I’m staring myopically at the plateau in new cases in China and South Korea’s (relative) success in slowing the spread of the virus (as well as the low-ish – 0.7% – mortality rate in the latter country), and hoping that our system may yet avert a complete catastrophe. But it will be a catastrophe no matter what for people who can’t get care and whose paychecks disappear. I wonder if even the cultists that make up the Republican Party leadership today can understand the potential consequences enough to get behind the sort of bill Pelosi is proposing?
JPL
@Cheryl Rofer: After what happened at the Biogen conference in Boston, that makes a lot of sense.
JPL
@West of the Cascades: Because of lack of testing, lots of folks who are carriers can be walking around. So. Korea tested a lot of people and were able to isolate those at risk. Italy didn’t and that blew up in their face. Their hospitals are now in meltdown.
Adam L Silverman
@chopper: I have not. One of the reason that NY City has not closed its schools is they have at least 144,000 students who are homeless and would therefore not get breakfast or lunch if school was cancelled. Let alone don’t really have anywhere to go.
Cheryl Rofer
@JPL: Yes. The ACS was slow about it – I saw some frantic tweets mentioning the Biogen conference – but they got the message. At least they’ve got two weeks, unlike the APS, which canceled their yearly meeting as people were on the way and already arrived in Denver. But that was early on.
Adam L Silverman
@Avalune: That broke on the news right after I hit publish.
CaseyL
@Gin & Tonic: Hah! That was my first thought, too!
Where is a good place to go for updates? It occurs to me that I haven’t heard much about new cases or fatalities among the general population.
Two points seem to make sense to me:
We don’t know what the actual fatality rate is, since we don’t know how many people have had the virus. If most people who get it are asymptomatic and never get tested, that would throw off the mortality index by a significant factor.
Also, I do begin to wonder if the preventive measures will do more harm than the virus. Entire industries falling apart, people becoming hermits, the global economy collapsing (again!) – Adam is right, it will turn the country into something unrecognizable, and I’m not actually sure the virus warrants that.
Adam L Silverman
@Rusty: I’m sorry. We’re keeping good thoughts.
Adam L Silverman
@Chyron HR: Same way they do it now: on Twitter.
catclub
wow! Oil companies.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: You’re welcome.
eemom
Uh…..
Immanentize
I thought I’d bring this up from downstairs, because more on point here —
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Thanks.
There have been several notable annual professional meeting cancellations. I know the HIV/AIDs infectious diseases one has been cancelled and reworked into a virtual conference.
MoxieM
@Rusty: So sorry to hear. Have been in the position of losing it all at once: job, house, marriage, my mind–kid grew up and moved away, so a bittersweet good thing. But it’s very, very hard. Be gentle on yourself, and we are here for you.
Immanentize
@beef: I’m about to refinance with a ten year negative point loan from USAA!
NotMax
Okay, doomer.
;)
Ohio Mom
I’ve been thinking I ought to call my sister: she has one daughter in Seattle, who is asthmatic, and another, living in Bangkok, who will be delivering grandchild number one in July. She must be wondering if she’ll be able to get to Thailand for tne happy ocassion.
Immanentize
@catclub: So sorry to see Dick Chaney’s portfolio at Halliburton take such a hit.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: Given the CDC is not updating with cases not diagnosed by non CDC/Federal labs, this is your best tracking site:
New Deal democrat
@Repatriated: Two comments:
1. unless this virus abates in the late spring and summer, and unless this country somehow finds a way to implement the measures China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore have done, the next few months are going to be an absolutely brutal lesson in geometric growth.
2. Congress has the right, under Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution, to set the “time, place, and manner” of its own elections, and supersede inconsistent State laws, if it so chooses. A very important and totally overlooked power when it comes to dealing with gerrymandering and voter suppression.
OldVet
@Chyron HR: Being an @sshole will not win you OR Uncle Joe friends.
Adam L Silverman
@eemom: I know it will be unrecognizable, I’m just not 100% sure how.
Glad to see you. Was beginning to worry since you’d seemed to disappear.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: CPACvirus.
Chyron HR
@OldVet:
Being an asshole will not earn you friends? Has… has anyone told Bernie’s campaign staff?
Mallard Filmore
This morning Rush Limbaugh claimed that
(1) 30% of the rally attendees are Democrats
(2) this is the reason the Democratic leadership is shouting about how dangerous it is to go to Trump’s rallies
(my favorite radio station lost its signal for a few minutes and I surfed for an alternative)
Cheryl Rofer
@New Deal democrat: Something I’m not seeing much said is that at some point, the exponential growth curve will flatten out. If nothing else, that will be from enough people having had it and developed immunity to it (although it is not fully clear that people develop immunity). We can flatten the curve by limiting social contacts and washing hands.
Knowing more about the distribution of cases would help even more, but it looks like the “see no disease” Trumpies have precluded that.
OldVet
@The Dangerman: You are vastly more confident that President Vlad won’t hack election systems and throw the election to his puppet!
OldVet
@Duane: The job of the NCAA is to make lots and lots of money. Not likely that they are going to give up this cash cow.
beef
@Immanentize:
It’s a sign of how crazy things are right now that I’m not quite sure if you’re joking.
moops
@Barbara: Rental market should ease up once AirBnB collapses due to travel dropping. At least if you are heading to major destination city. NY and SF and Seattle and LA come to mind as destinations where thousands of AirBnB apartments are going to be looking for long-term renters to cover the mortgages.
Mikeindublin
This post made me sick to the stomach
Walker
Virtual instruction is going to be a mess. We have spent the past decade leaning into models of instruction (project based education, active learning) that emphasize the value of residential instruction over online learning. I have no idea how I am going to take my project-based class online if my university pulls a Princeton.
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman:
That will do.
Jay Noble
AARRRRRGH! Not AND. Started as novel (new) and then was named COVID-19. This is fueling conspiracy theories that there’s a 2nd coronavirus coming on the backside of COVID-19 because reasons.
No novel Coronavirus anymore. No Wuhan Virus. COVID-19.
Some of the MSM got the note and some haven’t and it’s driving me batty
Barbara
@Adam L Silverman: I have very mixed feelings about closing schools. Allowing teachers or others (including students) at higher risk because of age or underlying medical condition to go on leave in order to avoid exposure makes more sense to me.
Lacuna Synecdoche
I don’t think anyone does. The question is whether Russian hackers and the GOP can fuck with enough states to manufacture an electoral college win again, even while losing the popular vote.
dm
@Chetan Murthy: Poe’s Masque of the Red Death
Ohio Mom
Hey! Half my comment got eated!
It wasn’t just the story about my sister, it was a list of all the people I know on the cusp of being affected.
The point being, it doesn’t take much imagination to see that this is a turning point, and all those little stories add up.
This will be one of those life events that have a before and a radically different after, and no going back.
So what Adam said, but on tne micro-level.
New Deal democrat
@Cheryl Rofer: “at some point, the exponential growth curve will flatten out.”
That’s the difference between geometric and exponential growth (as I learned earlier today).
Mike in DC
I do document review for a few agencies. They have plans on the table for remote review, but are not there yet. The doc review community would be overjoyed to telecommute, honestly. Though I worry about salaries being downgraded by a few bucks.
Raven Onthill
Elizabeth Warren has a plan for that…
germy
Immanentize
@beef: I am not joking. They are calling it a negative point loan because there are no up-front point costs to move my loan interest %, but I do have to pay the technical closing costs. I am going from 4.25 % (which was good) interest to a fixed rate in the 2.9 region? I will lock in a few days and let you know.
moops
I think people are under estimating pure social inertia. Yes, we are in the containment phase of an outbreak, so huge social impacts. Once we reach the endemic phase people will figure out how to have all our nice things again. The World War and a depression are what changed the world in 1918. People sort of got over the shock of the Spanish Flu in a few years. Perhaps a scared and brutalized world was just tougher by that point. It DID sort of kick off a global wave of nationalism and fascism…. hmmm
CaseyL
@Adam L Silverman:
Excellent – thanks!
The US numbers, assuming that states are accurately reporting them, are not high at all. Though it does look some some states are simply not reporting at all.
Immanentize
@moops: Many AirBnB places in the greater Boston metro are actually investment houses (not rooms in someone’s home) operating like hotel rooms. So yes, the rental market might open some.
Immanentize
@Mallard Filmore: Well Rush really is going out and taking others with him, huh?
catclub
It is notable that PA, WI, MI had GOP governors in 2016,
and don’t now. Not a guarantee, but a difference.
Blatant hacking – such as CA going for Trump 60-40 would be interesting. Trump would claim it is accurate.
Fair Economist
@White & Gold Purgatorian: In Socal, my local Albertson’s was actually having a *sale* on ethyl and isopropyl alcohol. Limit 5 per customer. I bought one bottle of 91% isopropyl just in case I need to homebrew sanitizer – we already have isopropyl, but 70%, which is not good for the sanitizer recipes.
mrmoshpotato
@RepubAnon: You mean touchscreen voting? We have that in Illinois, and there is a paper printout after you review each screen.
We also have vote by mail which of course has a paper trail.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer:
germy
germy
@Adam L Silverman: My fear was that it would mutate and return each new season, needing constant updated vaccines.
takebakawashi
@New Deal democrat: Perhaps naming conventions differ across fields but to my knowledge exponential growth and geometric growth are the same thing. It holds when the growth rate of a thing is proportional to the amount of that thing; in this case, the growth rate of the number of people who have the disease is proportional to the number of people who currently have the disease. If the disease is left unchecked then the growth rate slows when people who have the disease encounter enough other people who have the disease that a potential transmission event fails to occur because the person on the receiving end already has the disease. If we intervene by taking active measures to reduce transmission then we reduce the constant of proportionality and thereby flatten the curve.
chopper
@Jay Noble:
covid-19 is the disease, not the virus.
Mike in NC
I hope the MAGAts start to drop like flies at the next hate rally that Fat Bastard announces. Have somebody start a rumor that the free Trump 2020 t-shirts (made in China) being handed out are infected with the virus.
Immanentize
@chopper: Good point. Can we call the disease
CPAC-20 then?
mrmoshpotato
@Chyron HR: LMAO! Never occurred to me that a virtual convention makes it harder to broadcast them being selfish children.
Will Wilmer livestream himself sitting and pouting?
ET
If anyone here is interested, my workplace union reps sent out this link to members that the AFL-CIO put together related to COVID-19.
https://aflcio.org/covid-19
It has a slew of general resources as well as some industry specific guidance – Airline workers, education/support staff, emergency responders, government/public service workers, healthcare workers, lab workers, and maritime/transportation workers.
germy
@Mike in NC: They cough and sneeze on the rest of us, though.
chopper
@Immanentize:
it’s good but it sounds like a rapper.
Immanentize
@mrmoshpotato:
That would be an instant classic like the Christmas Log on WPIX!
Connor Cochran
I think (and certainly hope) that you are wildly overestimating the long-term social impact. My own bet is that America in November 2020 will look remarkably like America in November 2019. The time in between now and then will have its full measure of disruption, to be sure, but eventually things will return to accepted norms. The Shanghai Disneyland is already partially reopening…
catclub
explain that difference to me.
It seems that geometric growth goes as r^(kt), while
exponential growth goes as e^(at).
where t is a measure of generations or time.
but what if r=e? or r>e.
What am I missing?
Of course, I do know that Geometric or exponential growth into a finite population
will also roll over at some point.
mrmoshpotato
@DRickard: ?????
Immanentize
@chopper: Ooo. Even better — double insult to the White Right.
germy
Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: Distribution of cases doesn’t matter much if there’s free movement of travel around the country. Right now our containment ‘strategy’ is everyone’s conference getting cancelled.
If you turn on MSNBC you can see the measures being taken for the Grand Princess. Those look like effective containment strategies. Looks like the national guard is the front line. I see semis for luggage, buses for passengers, ambulances staged, intake and quarantine tents, handwashing stations, etc. This looks like something that can work very well. I only hope that they extend it to the crew on the ship, because I think they’ve only committed to the passengers.
You don’t need that scale at airports, but you need something. In the 80s you couldn’t bring a Florida orange across the CA state line without a manual inspection. We took those measures to protect our citrus crops. In fact, we kept those measures in place at federal ports of call for imported produce. They’re still in place.
I mean, yes, a mitigation strategy does eventually rely on herd immunity to take over. Things start to slow down north of 25% infection rate. If we’re lucky we’ll top out at 50%. And in a managed situation, that’s not so bad. If you can keep everyone over 60 in the 50% who don’t get it, then okay, that’s fine – your fatality rate will be really low if you can keep it to 35 year olds and under. It’ll be close to zero. But you don’t get that by luck. If 50% of Congress gets this, we’re looking at what, 20 dead? The Villages, 5,000 dead if we’re lucky. 15,000 is more likely.
Mitigation isn’t a bad strategy, but it’s a strategy. It requires proactive effort.
moops
@chopper: no, COVID-19 is the name of the virus. The illness is in the SARS family.
Fair Economist
@CaseyL:
If the virus spread without any constraints, something like 5-10% of the world population would die, because there would be so many needing ventilatory assistance the amount the world could provide would be like bailing the ocean with a sand bucket. We will probably experience a depression avoiding that. It’s a good deal! Much less bad.
Technically the econ damage actually experienced will probably be worse than the deaths actually experienced, but it will have been a good choice anyway.
Fair Economist
@Martin:
I worry about that, because the crew will be almost all foreigners from poor countries, and Trump the monster will be giving orders on handling them.
germy
mrmoshpotato
@Jay Noble: Why is the “19” in the name? Is it Jaws?
Ferdinand
Here’s something of concern to me that I haven’t yet seen addressed: the impact on the 2020 US Census, scheduled for next month. I worked as a Census Enumerator in the fall, confirming mapping and demographic data. This is the first time the Census Bureau is attempting to get the census mostly completed online. However, a huge temporary workforce of Enumerators are currently being hired to work for 6-8 weeks going door-to-door, to every single residence in the entire country where the residents have not completed the census online. Are we really about to send 100,000 temporary workers physically to every neighborhood in America during April and May? In the middle of a likely pandemic with quarantines? Will the census be delayed? That’ll be yet another huge economic hit (I like many am counting on the work as a backstop) and also have enormous political ramifications.
Ksmiami
@Rusty: As someone who moved to Fl rt before the the 2008 crash and rented- I recommend renting a house
Raven Onthill
And…Sanders is right now holding a round table on COVID-19 in Detroit. Medical professionals are doing most of the talking: https://youtu.be/h6ccigNCsM4. He’s showing us that he is able and willing to respond to a crisis.
Immanentize
@moops: You have it backwards —
That’s from the CDC
And that should answer Mrmoshpotato’s question — it has the # 19 in it because it was a coronovirus disease identified in 2019.
chopper
@moops:
the virus is sars-cov-2. covid-19 is the disease.
Barbara
@moops: Is that what you call a silver lining?
Ksmiami
Repatriated
@mrmoshpotato: Problem: The tabulator reads the barcode/QR code, not the candidate names printed on the completed ballot.
The code is not human-readable, so the voter can’t tell if they don’t match.
Is there a method for catching this if the ballot printers have been compromised?
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. I saw that, but everything is so crazy right now that I don’t want to give either false hope or false despair, so I’m waiting for further confirmation, which I haven’t seen.
takebakawashi
@germy: Trump thinks coughing is a sign of weakness — no wonder he’s melting down. Remember this? https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/watch-trump-mulvaney-coughing-oval-office
Avalune
@takebakawashi: This is kind of funny considering how much sniffing and loud breathing he does.
NotMax
@Avalune
But it’s the best sniffling and perfect loud breathing.
Kent
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all have Democratic governors in 2020. In 2016 all three states had Republican governors. Actually Wolf might have been elected in 2015, I’m not positive.
germy
@takebakawashi: He’s spent his whole life bullshitting and blustering his way through every challenge. Somehow it isn’t working for him this time.
Kent
Small return to normalcy here in Vancouver. Costco had toilet paper back in stock this morning.
VOR
There are a lot of computer industry conferences being converted into virtual/online experiences. IBM Think, normally 30k people in May, is now going to be online. Google Cloud Next, probably >20k people in April, now online. Facebook canceled their developer conference last week, supposed to have been 16k people.
Bill Arnold
One surprise (to me at least) consequence is that RU, and reluctantly, KSA are apparently[1] opportunistically using lowered worldwide demand due to COVID-19 to shiv US and CA shale oil production[2].
Also, obligatory, GHG emissions will be lowered substantially, mostly due to rippling worldwide economic effects and curtailed travel. GHG emissions rebounded failure quickly after the 2008 financial crisis/great recession, but this might be different, depending on the measures used to control the infection rate and how long they are maintained. (And whether there are more pandemic waves, due to either a new virus or significant mutations of SARS-CoV-2. Always a … possibility.)
Anyhow, nice piece by Adam. This part is key:
That is, there will be opportunities to be seized to bake in changes, for good and ill. Please fight moves by the greed-headed-psychopaths and their henchmen to go down the reactionary paths.
[1] Maybe it was in plan earlier, but I don’t see any evidence for that.
[2]Saudi Arabia slashes April crude oil prices after OPEC’s supply pact collapsed (March 7, 2020)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
mrmoshpotato
@Avalune: Someone could edit it all into a song – a really disgusting, orange pile of trash song.
Another Scott
BBC News – Italy extends coronavirus measures nationwide:
I wonder if such things are in our future…
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Calouste
Italy is going to be under complete lockdown from tonight. All public events cancelled, pubs theatres, gyms etc closed.
AliceBlue
FYI, Sirius XM now has a coronavirus channel for info and updates. All programming will be presented by NYU Langone Health’s team of infectious disease experts. I haven’t given it a listen yet, but it’s on channel 121 and even people with inactive satellite radios can listen.
Jay Noble
@chopper:
A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.
On February 11, 2020 the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, first identified in Wuhan China. The new name of this disease is coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19. In COVID-19, ‘CO’ stands for ‘corona,’ ‘VI’ for ‘virus,’ and ‘D’ for disease. Formerly, this disease was referred to as “2019 novel coronavirus” or “2019-nCoV”. (CDC site with references to WHO)
Can’t find any references to COVID-19’s virus the way common coronavirus’s 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 are referred to. COVID-19 is named the ame way as SARS and MERS were but at this point the name of the virus and disease seems to be the same.
mrmoshpotato
Wow. Just wow.
Jay Noble
@mrmoshpotato: LOL. 19 is for 2019 when it was first found. But Ilke the Jaws thing. :-)
Another Scott
@Jay Noble:
CDC:
(Emphasis added.)
That seems to now be the official name of the virus. Or at least the “first” virus (Martin has posted links to papers that indicate there are 2 variants now, as I understand it.).
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
@Another Scott:
How did the viruses jump from bats to humans?
Chickens I understand, because of poultry production. But bats? I don’t understand
I thought bats kept their distance.
Jay Noble
@Immanentize: THANK YOU!!! I hadn’t found that on the CDC site but after you put that up I found on the WHO site via Googleing SARS-CoV-2
Avalune
It was interesting that Leto got a message from the school I used to work for located on the base where we were stationed in Northern Italy. Basically just saying all classes canceled but hey look online classes are still on! Study from the comfort of your personal bubble!
We had some older people in our villa. I spent MONTHS saying salve to the dude on the second for before he finally stopped ignoring me and said ciao. I worked hard for that relationship! They have our house plants. I hope they are ok.
Jay Noble
@Another Scott: Thanks!
Another Scott
@germy: A saw a bit of a BBC story a while ago, in the early days in Wuhan. There was speculation that it went from bats to pangolins in a market there. And from pangolins (who are mammals) to humans.
So, it wasn’t via pangolins.
Dunno. I’m sure sensible people are trying to figure that out…
Cheers,
Scott.
mrmoshpotato
@Jay Noble: Shark still looks fake. :)
Jay Noble
@germy: the theory I’ve seen is “Chinese Pangolin. The Chinese pangolin is a scale-covered mammal that resembles an armadillo in appearance and an anteater in behavior, though it is more closely related to bears and cats than anteaters.” Nat Geo
Bats – exotic animals in the markets in Wuhan – humans
ETA: And Another Scott got here with more current data. :-)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: I’ve had a bat in my house twice, one just stuck to a screen trying to get out, the other one was flying around my high ceilings– that freaked me out.. My sister had them in her attic, which is pretty common as I understand
JoeyJoeJoe
@Kent: Wolf was elected in 2014. Also, the Secretary of State for the states, not the Governor, runs elections.
Ella in New Mexico
@germy: If those two Tweets are true, then why was he hanging out at Mar-a-Lago all weekend shaking random people’s hands with absolutely no apparent fear?
Quite the sudden change of attitude.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
CPAC attendee who has been experiencing “flu-like symptoms” for a week
Jay Noble
@mrmoshpotato: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JV5WTOgVM4
A Ghost To Most
In “Three Dimes Down”, Cooley makes a shout out to Bob Seger, “Come back baby, rock n roll never forgets”.
Adam L Silverman
@Mikeindublin: The good news is that is not a symptom of the novel Coronavirus!
Adam L Silverman
@Walker: Raven, in self imposed exile off the shoulder of Orion (the constellation, not the New God – by the SOURCE!!!), sent this along for you:
https://www.facultyfocus.com/articles/online-education/understanding-project-based-learning-in-the-online-classroom/
Martin
UC Berkeley has shut down most in-person instruction through 3/29. Labs and performance courses that can’t be virtualized may continue with measures in place to limit contact.
Mitigation strategy.
Fair Economist
@germy:
Indirectly. The spike protein has evolved to bind *poorly* to the bat receptor. So it’s been evolving in a different animal for some time, decades at least.
@Another Scott: It could have been from pangolins. It just isn’t a direct transfer of any of the currently known pangolin coronovirus group. One distinct possibility is that the bat ancestor recombined with a member of the pangolin group to make a novel pangolin-capable virus, which then evolved further, and eventually hopped to people.
Might be another animal too. It looks like there’s been some convergent evolution.
Bill Arnold
@Jay Noble:
Also known as “wet markets”:
Both the new coronavirus and SARS outbreaks likely started in Chinese wet markets. Photos show what the markets look like. (Aylin Woodward, Feb 26, 2020)
Dangerous (cultural) practice, that, for precisely this reason.
Peale
@germy: they poop do bats
Bill Arnold
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Bats (order Chiroptera) are about 20 percent of all mammal species. I have no clue what species are considered to be food in China. (e.g. insectivores, fruit-eaters? (Latin for that latter? :-) )
Duane
@OldVet: The Federal government could step in and basically pay off the NCAA. Instead Chuck Grassley is talking about tax cuts. Ideological idiots like him will literally get people killed.
Chyron HR
@Ella in New Mexico:
Cornoavirus is so harmless that normal people wouldn’t have it, just the dastardly reporters scheming to infect him.
Chetan Murthy
I don’t know if this is useful, but re: exponential and geometric growth: they’re really the same thing, with a different multiplier on the exponent. That is,
f(n) = A exp(k * n)
and
f(n) = A pow(r, n)
are really the same — where k == log_base_e(r) [hope I got that right]
[I’m no epidemiologist, and took my last continuous-math course …. in 1986 but] I think what you’re looking for is what they call a “logistic function”, which expresses the growth of some thing that eventually comes up against natural boundaries (i.e. no new hosts to infect, no new businesses to take over, etc). Here’s a short link: http://www.sci.wsu.edu/math/faculty/hudelson/logisticlesson.html
and here’s a video with a picture of a logistic function: https://youtu.be/yNBrE800TgY?t=381
and the entire video is an explanation of the thing and its application to epidemics.
TL;DR there’s mathematics that addresses how epidemics work, and how they burn themselves out. It’s why and where the idea of “R_0” and all that stuff comes from. And yeah, in the early phases, it grows exponentially. More woe is us (humans).
Ella in New Mexico
@Chyron HR: Oh the Sweet Blessed Karma we’re all gonna be witnessing over the upcoming weeks and months
mrmoshpotato
@Jay Noble: I’ve seen that. Still good. I want the plot of Jaws 11.
Duane
@Another Scott: I’m listening to a guy from Texas bragging that he and his wife returned last week from a two week vacation in Italy and they’re just fine. It’s a big hoax, he says. We need a vaccine for stupid.
mrmoshpotato
@Ella in New Mexico: He’ll be bathing in rubber alcohol. (Sorry for the image.)
mrmoshpotato
@Duane:
If only…
chopper
@Jay Noble:
yes. the disease is called covid-19. the virus is sars-cov-2. i keep having to say this.
JustRuss
@Martin:
Every university should be doing this. I didn’t get anything from sitting in a classroom with 300 other undergraduates that I couldn’t have got from watching the lecture on a computer.
Omnes Omnibus
@germy: Dude, it’s like you have never heard of vampires.
jlowe
In thinking about university distance learning models, I’m curious how they’re going to address the laboratory classes. Pretty much need to be there in-person for those.
Kent
Two side-by-side columns and headlines in today’s Washington Post.
The Coronavirus isn’t another Hurricane Katrina, it’s Worse
and
The Coronavirus is Trump’s Chernobyl
Shit is getting real for Mr. Trump.
thalarctosMaritimus
Frugivorous (adj.), frugivores (noun).
I get to use that word so rarely in conversation these days that it’s a real pleasure!
Uncle Cosmo
@dm: This time around: Flasque of the Dread Breath.
Skepticat
I’d read that only two passengers but nineteen of the crew have the disease.
terraformer
@brendancalling:
Funny, I wrote that sentiment the other day, and either I (or the idea – likely both!) was considered ridiculous.
Skepticat
I have them in my belfry.
Ruckus
As stated here many times I use the largest healthcare system in the country and it is a non profit, government run/government employees health care system. The VA. It is, in my opinion, better than any for profit system I’ve ever had to deal with. Is it perfect? No it is not. I’m 70, I’ve been seeing docs for things from encephalitis when I was 7, to a heart attack, to a couple of issues that I’ll have to the end of my life that I’m not going into now. Yes the structure of care is different than I’ve ever seen outside of it but that’s really all it is, different. Scheduling can be a pain in the butt but it doesn’t seem to make a difference in outcome, if you need NOW you get it. I go to the same place for all my needs, not different locations. An example, my meds come from the VA. Costs are closely controlled, they mail me refills and the pharmacy is on site. If my doc says I need an MRI, there is no question, especially no question of does my insurance cover it. I do have co-pays, not everyone does, but they are far better than I hear about using public healthcare and insurance. And they are consistent and if I was retired I wouldn’t have co-pays.
So in my opinion, No, a for profit system can not operate at the costs of a non profit system and provide the care which is pretty damn good, with outcomes seemingly as good or better than public for profit healthcare. The downside is that people’s perceptions of the care and facilities is nothing like the reality and if we attempted to switch tomorrow the uproar would drown out every hard rock concert ever held.
Uncle Cosmo
IMO Mr Silverman and (to a lesser extent) you both need to show your work.
Specifically, Adam, I’d like you to explain (and/or cite articles that explain) in some detail how the world changed “so drastically as to be unrecognizable” after the first go-’round of the “Spanish” flu.
I don’t see it. I can project certain trends already working their ways through society will intensify – e.g., the balkanization of the US political landscape that was identified and predicted in Bill Bishop’s The Big Sort: How the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart (2008). I can see an increased distancing in social relationships, particularly among those not mutually well known, and remote rituals to supplant tactile greetings. I can see virtual interactions expanding to fill the partial vacuums caused by this.
But “unrecognizable?” Show your work, Adam, or admit that you’re just blowing smoke.
And on that note, let me speak directly to the Jackaltariat:
I suggest that Jackals treat any “argument from authority” with a rather large halite crystal of skepticism, until & unless they are convinced that the source is in fact an authority in the subject under discussion. For myself, I acknowledge Adam’s national security chops, Cheryl Rofer’s experience in nuclear proliferation and Estonia, David Anderson’s intricate knowledge of the health insurance tangle, & to many others here who have shown familiarity with issues where local conditions are both crucial & somewhat obscure to someone at a remove. Beyond that…
Uncle Cosmo
@New Deal democrat: Um, actually it’s the difference between arithmetic and logistic growth, which starts out increasing exponentially so long as the environment has room to accommodate it but starts to slow down as things get crowded & eventually either stabilizes at an asymptotic value (the pure logistic function) or crashes due to overcompetition for resources.
Uncle Cosmo
@germy: If someone were to release some very finely ground pepper into the White House air ducts, Noli Me Tangerine would be odds-on to stroke out either from blind fury or blind fright once the staff (including hisownself) started sneezing.
smintheus
Universities with physical infrastructure are not going to go virtual just to save faculty salaries. For starters, that’s their advantage over fly-by-night online purveyors of “education”. Second, eliminate the campus and kiss the alumni donations goodbye. Third, there would be little rationale for most of the administrators with no campus, so they’re not going to put themselves out of a job.
Another Scott
@Skepticat: And we should remember that 21 number (again cited by Pence today) is from 3 days ago. When they tested all of 46 people on board.
Caveat emptor.
Cheers,
Scott.
terry chay
@catclub: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/9/21171406/coronavirus-saudi-arabia-russia-oil-war-explained
terry chay
@germy: I haven’t looked it up but is the Coronavirus an RNA virus like HIV and influenza? If not, that is not something to be worried about. (There is a lot of other things to be worried about with respect to the virus and the impact of COVID-19.)
terry chay
@chopper: yes! The virus strain designation is “SARS-CoV-2” so I bet calling it the “novel Coronavirus” is still okay.
People make this same mistake with HIV (virus)/AIDS (disease) so it makes sense to let these errors slide as
long as nobody is calling it “the Chinese virus” or “the Wuhan disease.” Or anything similar. I see that on Russian Bot social media but it hasn’t crept into the mainstream at all so that improper framing is going to fail.