BREAKING: Harvard classes will move online starting March 23 due to a growing global coronavirus outbreak, University President Lawrence S. Bacow announced in an email Tuesday morning. The University has asked students not to return from spring break. https://t.co/rKkapq50nt
— The Harvard Crimson (@thecrimson) March 10, 2020
Harvard has world class epidemiology, infectious disease and public health talent readily and abundantly available.
Harvard has a global footprint.
Harvard as an institutional will not be consumed by Trumpian dignity wraiths.
Other large, globally branded universities are making similar decisions.
As the big, globe spanning and influencing private universities are making decisions, I think paying attention to their actions and decisions is a productive source of revealed preferences and good faith information.
The CDC is telling people at high risk to start getting ready for isolation in place:
“This virus is capable of spreading easily and sustainably from person to person … and there’s essentially no immunity against this virus in the population,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call….
The CDC is recommending people with underlying conditions or who are over 60 to stock up on medications, household items and groceries to stay at home “for a period of time,” she said. The U.S. government recommended travelers with underlying health conditions avoid taking any cruises anywhere in the world. “We also recommend people at higher risk avoid non-essential travel, such as long plane trips,” she said….
a top CDC official said Monday, recommending that people over 60 and anyone with chronic medical conditions buckle down for a lengthy stay home.
Treat right now like the few days before a hurricane comes ashore in terms of prep.
Avalune
This week we are in the midst of midterms so I suspect we will hang on until that is complete and close all next week during spring break. Maybe longer? Maybe transition? At my campus we deal with a lot of folks who wouldn’t be able to do an online transition very well and many depend on the food assistance. ?
MomSense
The problem is that low income people and families will not be able to take the necessary steps to prepare. My heart aches for the parents trying to cope with this on top of being homeless.
The idiot administration is talking about employment tax breaks and other minor stimulus – but what about direct support? This reminds me of all the people who couldn’t afford to evacuate before Katrina. I was ready to punch anyone who shamed them for not leaving.
The tennis pavilion at the White House is coming along nicely, though.
zhena gogolia
Is this a terrible time for two over-60-year-olds (basically healthy non-smokers) to adopt two cats? I would never have agreed to it if I’d known what was coming, but now we’re committed and the cats have nowhere else to go.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
Oh, but no, we’re panicking if we do that.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@zhena gogolia: It’s the perfect time to adopt them. Just make sure that you have plenty of food for them included in your prep stash.
David Anderson
only if they are good cats with good HOOMANS to rule over
Walker
Probably a matter of time until we do this too (but our Spring Break is not until April). We will probably have to shift the whole semester to pass/fail if we do it. Grades will be impossible.
zhena gogolia
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
My prep stash is pretty pitiful. It’s fine if there’s power.
Yes, I’m stocking up on their food today, and the present owner is bringing some along with them on Monday.
zhena gogolia
We’re probably going online too. We seem to be following whatever Harvard does. Princeton has also gone this route. I have no idea how to do this, but I don’t really care. I’ll teach them something or other.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Mr DAW plays bridge three times a week at a couple of different clubs around here. It won’t surprise you to learn that the average age there is well over 60. I keep waiting for them to cancel but they don’t, and Mr DAW keeps going.
dmsilev
@Avalune: Our last day of classes for the term is tomorrow, and then exams next week. A lot of our exams are take-home anyway, so we might be able to do a “soft close” if you will and then segue into spring break.
Already announced that dorms will stay open through spring break so that students who might ordinarily have, say, gone to visit family in China or Italy, have a place to stay.
otmar
Austria is closing university lectures as well.
Schools tdb, the issue there is taking care of the kids.
Walker
The big issue for us is it is not clear how much this helps. You send people home, but many of our students live in areas more infected. And if they stay here but we go virtual they are still in shared living conditions with communal bathrooms.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@zhena gogolia: It is a great time to adopt cats — petting a cat lowers blood pressure, right? And we need that in stressful times.
I don’t expect power or water supply interruptions. That doesn’t seem to be happening in other countries. We have focused on supplies to keep from needing to go out shopping (shelf stable food, paper goods, cat food and litter) and cleaning/protection items (sanitizer, alcohol, a few gloves) for when we have to go out. Some treats and/or catnip would be on my wish list if I had a couple of new kitties.
oldster
“Treat right now like the few days before a hurricane comes ashore in terms of prep.”
I’m so glad you said that! I was starting to feel self-conscious here in Upstate New York about nailing plywood over all of our windows and putting sandbags around the doors.
But I figure you can’t be too careful about visitors, and anyhow maybe it will save on the heating bills when it snows later this week?
Gin & Tonic
@Dorothy A. Winsor: As long as he doesn’t touch the cards, he should be OK.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Gin & Tonic: Or pick up any of the Kleenex balls that fall out of the geezers’ pockets!
Patricia Kayden
Better safe than sorry. At least some people are taking this virus seriously. **glaring at you, Donnie
gvg
The University of Florida is encouraging professors to turn classes to online as soon as possible. We just got finished with Spring Break. so we don’t really get that break. We have had a cohort of online students for over 10 years. It’s not the preferred way to learn because frankly most people don’t get as much out if it but for some people it’s the only way. It was always obvious that the world was trending that way and we would have to do at least some online teaching, so we started experimenting with it quite a long time ago. We learned and from what I heard, platforms got better and professors learned how. I hope we have time to have the experienced in this staff teach the regular staff. I wish we had some sort of lecture or peer based video to prep the students themselves.
My particular Financial Aid counselor work deals with the petitions of those students who are not meeting standards to continue on aid for extenuating reasons. I have seen a lot of past petitions from students who discovered that online classes aren’t as easy as they thought. They get behind easily. Not all learn well that way, etc. I expect a lot of issues to come up afterwards, especially expecting a whole bunch of incomplete grades.
I actually do know of a few online only students who are that way because of health disabilities including immune compromised. In the past they couldn’t have gone at all.
PenAndKey
You know, as someone who was a “non-traditional student” (I didn’t attend until I was 28, married, with a child, employed, and living 15 miles from campus) I’m all in favor of increasing remote or virtual classroom work. For my own microbiology degree I had a lot of lab instruction and hands-on experiments, but I could have easily completed 3/4 of my degree from home if it were an option. It would have made things a lot easier as a student who didn’t fit the no-responsibilities, dorm-living mold.
This, though? Not how I envisioned it happening.
New Deal democrat
I’ve been writing that governments and people who will not see are about to get an absolutely brutal lesson in exponential (or geometric, whatever floats your boat) growth. A manageable looking outbreak can turn calamitous in only a couple of weeks.
Well, here is a graph from Dr. Mark Handley in London, UK, showing that the both the US and the UK are about a week and a half away from becoming Italy:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112
This is why I have said that if the Trump maladministration continues to get in the way of effective countermeasures, there could be 10,000s of needless deaths. Anyone who doubts this should bookmark this comment and revisit in round about the 4th of July.
gvg
@Walker: Maybe communal bathrooms will be much less crowded if MOST of the students go home. Housing can spread those who need to stay out more. Depends on what resources they have and how thoughtful they are. Our school has multiple kinds of dorms. The more apartment types cost more. Most of those built later have a bath for every 4 bedrooms or such. If only 5% need to stay on campus, they could probably be accommodated.
Marcopolo
Good morning folks. I’ve been picking up non-perishable food & paper products bit by bit for the past almost 3 weeks now. I figure I have enough for a month. I am blessed to have been able to do this; however, I agree that this is impossible for folks living from paycheck to paycheck to do.
As for the relief that the federal government will put together, Pelosi has already laid down her markers that anything that gets passed out of the House will have to address the needs of the working poor.
For everyone out there in a state that votes today, get on out there and do it! And remind two or three other folks you know as well.
Have a good Tuesday everyone.
New Deal democrat
Hmm, a prior comment I wrote got eated. Let me try the simpler version: a link to a tweet from an academic in London, UK, who shows on a log scale how the US and UK are both about 11 days away from becoming Italy:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112
Tom Levenson
MIT’s spring break starts a week from Friday. I believe the hope is/was to hang on till then. I suspect Harvard’s move makes that unlikely. Also–there’s a fair amount of voting w. feet. The School of Architecture and Urban Planning has just cancelled all events, not just the large ones that have already been written out.
Me, I’m on a midday deadline on a piece, then teach, and then plan on diving deep into the Zoom meeting software, which I’ve never used, but which will soon be my classroom. That and trying to figure out how to reconfigure a course built around team projects that involve going out into the world in groups.
JR
Harvard, Princeton, Cal, OSU, UW, Columbia… missing any?
Fair Economist
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I play boardgames about twice a week and I was talking with another regular about whether we need to shut down and possible amelioration techniques if we don’t (no shared food, providing sanitizer).
zhena gogolia
@JR:
Amherst.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@JR: Stanford for the rest of the winter quarter is going online
Fair Economist
@Marcopolo: The country is so fortunate to have Nancy Pelosi in a position of authority including a veto point on legislation. TBF, we did work pretty hard to get her there so there’s some earning along with the luck.
Walker
I teach project based classes that require intense collaboration on 8 person teams. We go online and the semester is lost. But I am preparing for damage control.
Mary G
I did a big Instacart order yesterday just stocking up on vitamins, laundry detergent, and other things we use that we weren’t that low on. There is plenty of cat food. The regular market had bleach and paper towels that Costco was out of. I couldn’t get hand sanitizer, rubbing alcohol, or gloves, but we have some already on hand. So now it’s just a waiting game hoping the teen doesn’t bring it home. His school is still open for now.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Fair Economist:
Amen to that. Pelosi is a steadying force, much like we wish a president would be in a time of crisis.
PenAndKey
And this is why the American intelligence community has, apparently, rated the country at high risk in the even of a pandemic for the decade-plus that Adam mentioned in a previous thread.
The simple fact is most of the country can’t study remotely, work remotely, or avoid working for 2+ weeks without risking losing their house or job. Those that can should, obviously, but I fear that still leaves more than enough of the population in place to make mitigation near impossible.
chopper
@zhena gogolia:
power and water aren’t a problem here. get 2 weeks of food (it’s smart anyways, given other possible disasters) because if you start showing some symptoms you and the others in your household may be stuck at home for 14 days or so.
in this case it doesn’t have to be dried beans and shit, just make sure you’ve got extra stock in the fridge etc and go through it in a manner that keeps it full.
OR, just pack the freezer with stuff and figure if you end up self-quarantining you’ll be grinding through freezer meals for the duration.
Butch
Serious question – what is meant by “long” plane flights? We’re supposed to fly from the UP to Denver in May to see in-laws; haven’t seen them for a while, but don’t know if we should exercise travel insurance and do the 18-hour drive instead.
Immanentize
@JR: Rice University cancelled classes this week (the week before Spring Break) and is preparing to go fully on-line afterwards.
At my University, we have had emergency teaching plan trainings and discussions for years — mostly in response to the Winter of 2016 when we were closed for the first SIX Mondays (plus other days) due to snow. So many of my colleagues have disparaged and poo pooed such “hysteria.” Just last week, my school ghad a faculty meeting in which tree professors spent about an hour complaining about “distance learning” as we in the law call it still.* They are maroons. Our Spring Break is next week, I expect we will not be asking students to return afterwards for at least a month (maybe finals at the University?)
*There was a show when I was a kid on Saturday mornings which was about the Australian Outback in which a little boy was taking classes via a short wave radio. I think my idiot colleagues imagine this is the height of technologically enhanced teaching methodology. Just FYI — we use Zoom for on-line productions and Blackboard as our LMS.
Immanentize
This past week, with longer days and sunny ones at that, I hit 99% self-generated electric. I’m ready for teh apocalypse, but I need a shotgun-ax.
kindness
I get how closing things is good short term. I just don’t see that it changes things all that much. My jaded view is such that this virus will circulate around the globe for the next couple of years till most of us have herd immunity. Closing things might put off having contact with the virus but won’t stop it all that much. Maybe the hope is slowing the pandemic part till we’ve got a vaccine? That won’t be for a year though.
For what ever terrible things this virus brings us it is helping rid us of Trump. It isn’t all bad in that respect.
David Anderson
@JR: Vanderbilt
Mandarama
@JR: My university, Vanderbilt, has canceled in-person classes until March 30. I guess they will see where we are then and make a call about the last month of school afterward, but I am guessing they will move to online instruction. I’m not teaching this semester, and I am grateful to not be figuring out how to make intense discussion-based classes effective online. I could definitely wing it if I had to, but it would be a loss.
My kiddo at UChicago has 10 days left in the winter quarter, and I think they are just hanging on trying to get them finished. I am wondering if the spring quarter will become virtual there as well.
zhena gogolia
@chopper:
Yeah, I think we’re okay on that. I can only get one month of medicine at a time, but I assume I’ll be able to get the refill April 5 or I can ask them to deliver it.
artem1s
Ohio governor Mike DeWine has just told the media that a state of emergency is no big deal. As long as none of the deaths are fetuses, I’m sure he is fine with ignoring a health care crisis emerging in the state.
David Anderson
@kindness: A couple of things on isolation and slowing spread.
A healthcare system that is operating for six months at 95% design capacity is a very different system with far better outcomes than a system operating at 130% capacity for a month. Spreading the same number of cases of the same severity over multiple months instead of a sudden surge dramatically reduces triage requirements and will save lives. Throw in time for manufacturers to up production of critical supplies (masks, gloves, respirators, ventilators etc), spreading the same load over time will be a dramatic difference in end results.
zhena gogolia
@kindness:
I believe the idea is to slow the spread so that hospitals don’t become overwhelmed. Vaccine may be a year away, but treatments might be quicker to develop. At least that’s what they tell me.
And there are still some who hope (I won’t go so far as to say “think”) that more sunlight in the spring will help.
Ohio Mom
In the end, the college students who are having their classroom studies interrupted and even abandoned, are learning much larger lessons.
It will be interesting to see how their interpretations of their experience changes them — I’m hoping it makes them into flaming anti-Republicans but that isn’t based on anything but wishful thinking. Anyway, sociologists and political scientists have a lot of interesting work ahead of them.
Jamie
@kindness: Of course it will continue to circulate; the idea behind closing things and whatnot is to slow the spread so that we don’t crush our medical system under the weight of millions of sick people at once.
I found this site pretty insighful:
https://www.flattenthecurve.com/
PenAndKey
Another big part of why even partial mitigation is worthwhile is the healthcare system strain. An uncontrolled infection can spike and rapidly overwhelm existing hospital infrastructure. Spreading out the same number of infections over an extended time-frame can reduce the load down to more manageable levels. You’re likely right that short of a rapidly developed vaccine this is something we’re all going to be dealing with getting infected at some point
Apparently Australia and Egypt didn’t get the memo. I haven’t seen anything indicating that this virus is affected by seasonality like influenza is, nor that warmer weather reduces transmission rates appreciably.
mali muso
We are on spring break now at my uni and have been contingency planning about a shift to online for the past month, so I’m guessing that’s what’s going to happen soon here as well. Still trying to figure out the best plan for May study abroad trips to locations that are currently not reporting much/any COVID cases. By that time if the virus has spread pretty much everywhere, does the worry about travel delays go away? A crystal ball would be helpful.
WereBear
@zhena gogolia: No. You are lighting two candles against the darkness.
I suspect you might need each other :)
Immanentize
@Mandarama:
Neither am I — and what a good semester to be on sabbatical. WIN!
Immanentize
@mali muso: By May, I suspect we will be out of the containment protocols almost entirely. But many students (and their parents) will be travel averse.
We shall see….
Felanius Kootea
A lot of international students don’t know what to do. Many can’t afford to travel back to their home countries and have nowhere to go, especially at universities that have ordered them to vacate the dorms by March 15.
Tom Levenson
@Immanentize: My sabbatical comes next term. It would have been easier on the brain now, but I think I’ll need it more then.
White & Gold Purgatorian
Yesterday I overheard some older ladies complaining about the media “scaring everyone to death” and this is “not as bad as the flu.” Today I read that the Alabama tourism director is whining about the warning for older people or those with health conditions to avoid cruise ships. Here in the deep red south I fully expect my neighbors to go from outrage over the hoax to full on panic more or less overnight. Hopefully my nearest and dearest will be ready and able to go to ground before all the Trumpistas realize they too will need toilet paper and laundry soap.
J R in WV
@Butch: I would not make the trip at all!
Think of all your exposure to the population, to contaminated gas pumps, eating in stops by the highway, and then you’re in a big city with community transmission underway for weeks!
Unless you just don’t care, spend some time and that travel money on food prep, and stay home for weeks, until believable news that community transmission, underway for weeks, is ended or greatly slowing.
What about epidemic do you not understand?!?! No offense, but your question is Tragic and absurd!
Percysowner
As long as electricity holds out I’m good. My freezer is nice and full. I also have a fair supply of dried beans and rice, and a ton of pasta and sauce.
The big issue is I take care of my granddaughter while my kids work. My daughter can do some work from home, with permission, but my SIL can’t. Both of them are government employees, so they have a fair amount of contact with people. The plan is to come and take care of my granddaughter, then head home and hermit. Thank goodness for Netflix, Hulu and other streaming services. I’m 67 and in a somewhat high risk group, but I’m pretty healthy, so I’m crossing my fingers. My SIL’s sister is a nurse and she says not to worry too much, so I’m being prepared and hoping for the best.
Newby without a nym
@JR: Northeastern, or so I was told yesterday by staff.
Jersey Tomato
@JR: St.John’s University through the end of March.
bluefoot
@PenAndKey: Someone I know at one of the intelligence agencies says they figure pandemic in the US is essentially guaranteed.
We all need to to what we can to slow transmission so as not to overwhelm our rickety healthcare system.
Whereaway
I live in Colorado, and with the first community spread cases in Colorado identified yesterday, my wife and I are working on self-isolating. We’re both 65, and she’s prone to severe respiratory infections. Fortunately, I’ve been a telecommuter for the last 5 years, so work is no impact.
I work for one of the very large health insurance organizations in the US. A few weeks ago, they announced that any of their employees who couldn’t work due to the coronavirus (either through illness or quarantine) would receive full wages or salary without having to dip in to any paid time off. I’m cynical enough to think they have financial reasons for doing so, reducing the spread will reduce the number of infections, and their claims costs, but, it’s also the right thing to do.
PenAndKey
@bluefoot: That’s my thought as well. At this point I’ve lost faith that the federal government is up to the job, so I’m definitely paying attention to the state responses and hoping they’re enough. I’m in Wisconsin and our governor is good, but or legislature is full of die-hard McConnell l wannabes so the state could go either way. We’ve already had two confirmed cases in the state as of this morning so… yeah.
My wife and I are young enough to be mostly out of the danger zone, but she’s 8-months pregnant and I have slightly elevated blood pressure. She also isn’t as plugged into the news as I am, so I figure I’m paying enough attention for the both of us and trying to plan accordingly. The only things I can’t really plan for are if my son’s school shuts down (he’s old enough to stay home if needed, thankfully), if my work closes (I can work from home, maybe, but that’s not guaranteed), and if our local hospital is overwhelmed. She’s a high risk pregnancy and mandatory c-section so that last one’s a big deal. If there aren’t beds available in a month because of system strain we’re basically screwed.
Brachiator
I know we have known early on that older people are more at risk. Still this reminder hits home personally. It potentially affects me and family members. And I know that many Balloon Juice folk are also affected.
Everyone take care.
Mo Salad
Michigan primary report from Dearborn:
Our polling place is in an elementary school that did not close for the day. They did, however, segregate the voters from the students. Only the door closest to the gym was open for voters. The hallway from that area to the classrooms was closed off and a cop was there as well to enforce this. Obviously no bake sale.
Turnout down? At 830, I was only voter 47 at our precinct.
Grocery shopping last night. Found this poorly timed craft beer release, Brew Detroit’s Bring Out Your Dead IPA.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/02/01/try-the-new-dcfc-brew-detroit-beer-bring-out-your-dead-this-weekend/
Immanentize
@Tom Levenson: I’m supposed to be teaching this summer…. We shall see what comes of our accelerated J.D. program in light of the outbreak.
Immanentize
@Newby without a nym: They are on quarters? They were when I went there for L.S. Or has Northeastern moved to semesters? I am at Suffolk. Wondering about B.U. and B.C.
japa21
A couple of observations.
Mrs. Japa and I did our civic duty yesterday and voted for next week’s Illinois primary. Since I am an election judge I was curious if there was anything they were doing regarding the virus.
They had a bottle of hand sanitizer at the door which was a plus, although I think they had to personally provide it. However, the county did provide wipes for the touch screens, one of my biggest concerns. However, not very many were provided so I will take in my own stash as well as extra personal size sanitizer.
Secondly, as I have mentioned, I work in a Costco as a food demonstrator. With Costco suspending all demos, they have us demos doing other jobs in the warehouse. This is good because although the income isn’t great, it helps pays the bills. And Costco is doing it partially for selfish reasons. They want to make sure that we don’t look for other jobs so we are there when the demos resume.
Anyways, that’s a long lead in to two points. I have mentioned before about the shopping for the apocalypse that people are doing. One of the things that did surprise me when I went in on Sunday is that all the rice was gone, sold out. Even all the 50 pound bags.
Secondly, I am starting to get concerned about myself and Mrs. Japa. It has now been pone year since I stopped a 52 year smoking habit. No matter how much I want to kid myself, I know my lungs are undoubtedly compromised. Mrs. Japa has some cardiac issues. We are both in our 70’s. IOW, we are prime candidates not only to catch this virus but to have severe consequences. I am seriously considering hunkering down in a home bunker, but at the same time that pay is essential for me. Not looking for sympathy, but rather, I know that I am not alone in this type of situation. We could, if absolutely necessary, hit our small IRA, and many people don’t even have that option.
ETA: In early February I went to the ER with what turned out to be Influenza A. This despite having the super duper old people vaccine. Survived that but it really wiped me out.
mali muso
@Immanentize: That’s my sense as well. Of course, there is also a possibility of some/many students who don’t want to lose their opportunity for their planned trip because of others’ fears driving the decision making. Trying to find the right balance of reasonable caution versus panic is difficult.
gwangung
@bluefoot: Yup. It’s been warned about over the last three years:
https://time.com/5797636/trump-botched-coronavirus-response/?
WaterGirl
@New Deal democrat: I released your comments from moderation. WordPress thought you were spam.
Fair Economist
@kindness: The point of closures now is to get it to a controlled endemic where deaths can be limited with extensive testing and spot closures, Singapore style.
gvg
@PenAndKey: I think you might want to pre stock up on newborn supplies if you haven’t already. You may need the hospital for the delivery, but you want to get in and get out fast and then try to hole up till she is healed. Some C sections require a longer stay but if you can come home. Then I presume she at least has leave planned. You have a lot on your plate. I would try to solve as many issues as you can ahead of time which means supplies. Maybe even medical supplies of first aid type. A hospital may want non infectious patients out sooner than a regular time.
PenAndKey
@gvg: That’s pretty much what I’ve done. Over the last month I’ve gathered about two months of food and medical supplies. This is also our second, so we’re well stocked for the standard baby essentials (it helps that my wife used to run a Toys R Us baby department). The plan so far is two to three days in the hospital depending on how she fares, with 8 weeks of leave after that. She works for a small business and doesn’t get paid leave, which is it’s own headache and we won’t be eating steak and salmon ever night for sure, but at least she’ll be home. It’s those three days I’m worried about, because by and large they’re out of our hands.
Feathers
One thing not in the post is that students have to move out of their dorm rooms by March 15. As someone who worked at Harvard, I’m wondering who they are moving in. Harvard currently houses faculty during snowstorms if they are worried about making it into campus. The Harvard dorms are mostly suites with 2-4 rooms and a shared bath. Medical staff from the Harvard teaching hospitals could be stay there. People who need to be quarantined with supervision could be housed in dorms. I am making the safe assumption that one dorm (house in Harvard speak) will stay open for students who can’t travel home. If they don’t do that, it will be a good measure that they are expecting things to be very bad and that they need the space.
Also, there is apparently a task force with the Boston area universities and biotech companies coordinating a response. Look for other colleges to start kicking their students out as well or at least closing some dorms to allow them to be used for other purposes.
Harvard also knows that other universities have been waiting for them to see what to do, so this is a very well thought through response. Remember how the only fatalities at the Boston Marathon were those killed instantly? The hospitals here have been drilling and preparing for this. These are undoubtedly plans which were made some time ago.