Anybody else having Gary Larson flashbacks?
I suppose that's one way to get it done. https://t.co/9Dtq88X64y
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 14, 2020
Spotty tonight, because I’m having computer problems. See you on the other side…
A doctor I spoke to today called this the “paradox of preparation” and it’s the key dynamic in all this. The only way to get ahead of the curve is to take actions that *at the time* seem like overreactions, eg: Japan closing all schools for a month with very few confirmed cases https://t.co/d6mGCugyTK
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) March 15, 2020
Lockdowns, self-isolation and entry bans imposed to fight global coronavirus spread https://t.co/u4fg2uIiuk pic.twitter.com/kiBQc48pl9
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 15, 2020
US #coronavirus cases above 2600; West Virginia left as the last man standing. https://t.co/hI4U4QB2bh
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 14, 2020
If even ISIS is taking #COVID19 more seriously than you are, you're doing it wrong. https://t.co/jq3ZkAvy6E
— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 14, 2020
My evening #COVID19 update. I have four points::
1. The1st #COVID19 case in the US was diagnosed Jan 21;
2. It has since taken 53 days to do ~20,000 tests in the US;
3. That's how many South Korea does in 1 day.
4. Without testing we are losing the battle against the virus— Carlos del Rio (@CarlosdelRio7) March 15, 2020
Guatemala just became the first country in the world to ban Americans in order to limit the spread of Coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/75cFZMEsym
— Kevin Sieff (@ksieff) March 14, 2020
Mexico frets about U.S. coronavirus spread, could restrict border https://t.co/2u8WVZ2Ipt pic.twitter.com/n9iXGUAlxH
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2020
Scary figures out of France — previous assumption was that this hit older people the hardest:
NYT: There have been 91 deaths, and 300 coronavirus patients are in critical condition, *** half of them under 50 years of age.*** https://t.co/pNSGkFnCvk— Michael Barbaro (@mikiebarb) March 14, 2020
Fast testing, diagnosis, isolation and treatment makes a huge difference.
In South Korea and China excluding Hubei, case fatality rate is 0.89% at the moment (they're converging).
Whereas in Hubei, Iran, and Italy, where healthcare system overwhelmed, it's from 4.5% to 6.8%.— Chenchen Zhang??????? is social distancing (@chenchenzh) March 14, 2020
I met an American woman this morning who said she is flying her in-laws out from California to Singapore because she has no confidence in the health care system. Sick People Across the U.S. Say They Are Being Denied the Coronavirus Test https://t.co/xnLjstnq1I
— Sui-Lee Wee ??? (@suilee) March 13, 2020
Travel bans have neither stopped spread of novel #coronavirus nor prevented it from becoming a pandemic.
Today, @ThinkGlobalHlth launched a new tracker of #COVID19 cases in countries with and without travel restrictions on China. Will update regularly https://t.co/Uk9OXjyNWr pic.twitter.com/QwD804BE09
— Tom Bollyky (@TomBollyky) March 13, 2020
Spain reports 1,500 new coronavirus cases in past 24 hours. https://t.co/PxnQEuMOyp
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) March 14, 2020
The number of pneumonia cases in #Moscow went up 37% yoy which is seemingly an indirect confirmation #Russia’s Covid-19 problem is much more serious than the government admits. https://t.co/myTfm3gGjs
— Bakhti Nishanov (@b_nishanov) March 14, 2020
[Props to the commenter who added, "So hurry up."]
— Mig Greengard (@chessninja) March 14, 2020
“President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo has admitted that he was deliberately holding back some information on COVID-19 cases to prevent the public from panicking. ” https://t.co/bJ3J0lT5lt
— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) March 14, 2020
oh hey look at thathttps://t.co/lNJxjPh7SG https://t.co/47irRfypxl
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) March 14, 2020
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Chetan Murthy
That Barbaro tweet might have a typo (can’t read FTFNYT article). Here’s one from France24, quoting the minister:
https://www.france24.com/en/20200314-coronavirus-in-france-prime-minister-announces-closure-of-cafes-shops-restaurants-and-cinemas
Jerome Salomon, the head of the French public health authority, said there had been a rapid increase in serious cases, including 300 people in intensive care, half of whom were below 60 years of age.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Dump has a travel ban on 28 euro counties. Russia is not banned.
Martin
South Korea’s fairly comprehensive testing is revealing that young, largely asymptomatic individuals are the leading carriers.
We won’t find them with testing based on symptoms, and they aren’t self-isolating because they feel fine.
WereBear
It’s over. Travel bans for the US are pointless.
I see on Twitter than Trump Fans are still loudly proclaiming it’s FAKE so official closing MUST follow because not enough are taking it seriously?
Cermet
@Chetan Murthy: As someone who has visited France, that so many are heavy smokers isn’t news. It does appear that Corona tends to hit countries with large population of smokers harder – that is, people under 60 get seriously ill.
Abnormal Hiker
I remarked to my wife yesterday that perhaps Trump will be memorialized by COVID-19. Just like there were Hoovervilles in the 1930s, perhaps COVID-19 will become known as Trump Flu.
According to Urban Dictionary someone made this suggestion on March 9, 2020.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: OK, reading a bit about the tweeter, he seems to have a bit of a history of alarmism. Maybe this is real, but I’ll wait until I see some other people confirming. Not saying he’s wrong, just that since I can’t read Korean, I don’t have any idea, and his prior alarmism makes one naturally suspicious.
Chetan Murthy
@Cermet: I hope it’s just smokers, honestly. Sigh.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: Can’t be banning the bossman can we?
prostratedragon
Somewhere an old Mohawk spirit finally exhaled.
Sab
@Martin: Sounds like my fucking niece, whom I thankfully haven’t seen since months ago.
Jinchi
This statistic is even worse when you remember that the US has more than 6 times the number of people as South Korea. So they’re 300 times more efficient at screening the population.
satby
So the reporting says that West Virginia is the only state not reporting cases of Covid-19. Do we believe that’s a result of lack of tests?
WereBear
I think so.
satby
And the reports are that the Moron-in-chief tested negative. There is no god.
Jinchi
I’m sure his ban was pointed specifically at the EU, which he hates because he hates the idea of open borders, even in foreign countries an ocean away. That’s why the UK and Northern Ireland were not originally banned. It was a reward for Brexit.
WereBear
@satby: A) I don’t believe a word that comes from the White House at this point.
B) Judging from Mr WereBear’s News video newsfeed this morning, the brown byproducts have finally hit the rotating blades.
which means
C) It’s starting to sink in that not only has this been screwed up from the beginning, the beginning was in 2018, when Trump fired the entire Pandemic Response Team and somehow, that didn’t make any news I ever saw.
which leads to
D) the death rate here will make 9/11 look like a case of the hiccups. And didn’t that disaster start with a Republican President dismantling an early warning system just because a Democratic President had set it up?
We are going to be the worst hit in the world because an idiot was in charge. That’s just Cold Equations in something like this.
Jinchi
Yes. I really hate the media’s reporting on this. They particularly need to stress that these numbers are “confirmed cases”. Saying that West Virginia is coronavirus-free is simply wrong and encourages complacency that we can’t afford right now.
26 completed tests for a state with almost 2 million people. We’ll have to go looking before we confirm that West Virginia is the “last man standing”.
satby
@WereBear: well, I had a lot of hope pinned on the karma of that bloated pustule getting Covid-19 and hopefully dying from it, with Pence following about two weeks later. May the FSM hear my prayer. We need competent leadership, looks like a common illness taking out the two and giving us President Pelosi is a remote chance.
Pleasepleaseplease.
TriassicSands
@Abnormal Hiker:
I think of it as the Orange Plague.
Cermet
@satby: most people (at least sane ones) would agree with those thoughts
WereBear
@satby: I also like that karmic hope and add my own. But the mills of the Gods grind so slow… but exceedingly fine.
germy
I predicted this a few days ago. Once the anti-teacher crowd (and anti-teachers union) gets a taste of distance learning… “think of the possibilities!”
germy
By “acting big” I think they mean “push through all the legislation we’ve been dreaming of”
TriassicSands
@Cermet:
At this point no one who still supports Trump or believes a word he says can be considered sane or alternatively, even minimally intelligent.
I have tried to have a rational discussion with Trumpists in the past and I finally gave up because it may be the most frustrating interaction imaginable. The idiocy is overwhelming.
germy
I don’t even believe “potus” has been tested.
Anya
@Chetan Murthy: Also, age is not much of a factor for people who have a compromised immune. I don’t remember where I’ve read it but there was research that categorized known cases of people who have died and most of them had other chronic illnesses that affects the immune system.
artem1s
and when it’s all said and done, the last surviving MAGA will declare it was all a hoax – because the concept of preventative measures and triage is beyond their comprehension
Jinchi
@germy: Newt is being a typical right-wing idiot.
The real question is “Can Biden and Sanders get tested?”
snoey
@Anya: Its a viral pneumonia and were losing the people we’d expect to lose from it. Nothing abnormal or unexpected.
This is from my daughter who is an ID doc and working in an affected area.
Anya
@Martin: this is why the U.K.’s policy is terrible. What we know so far is the death rate for over 70 is pretty high and the UK government’s “let the virus run its course” plan doesn’t include a clear advisory not to expose the elderly if there is a chance you might be in contact with a carrier. The message should be, as long as you’re not socially isolating there is a chance you’re in contact with a virus carrier. You might be a virus carrier.
artem1s
@satby: the Moron in Chief tested negative yesterday (If you can believe anything coming out of this WH). With the incubation period, doesn’t mean he wouldn’t test positively today or tomorrow. He will behave even more cavalierly now. Plenty of opportunity for him to come down with COVID-ORANGE.
Jinchi
Well, except for the number of people succumbing to pneumonia right now. That seems pretty abnormal.
Eric S.
@germy: when I first read Donnie Dollhands had been tested the WH said results would take up to 2 days. Mentally, I called shenanigans. Then they announced negative results in under a day. No, no I do not believe. If, IF, he got tested they were going to say ot ws negative regardless the true result.
Chetan Murthy
@snoey:
Wut? She thinks that losing a quarter of all the 80-year-olds is nothing abnormal? That seems ….. surprising.
WereBear
@snoey: Which is why it appears smoking rates are such a factor, I would imagine.
WereBear
@Chetan Murthy: In the context of this pandemic, it is medically expected.
Chetan Murthy
@WereBear: IIUC, we already knew from several weeks ago, that smokers were especially at risk, b/c smoking permanently activates the ACE2 receptors in the lungs, to which the covid-19 virus particles then bind (or something like that). Which was part of why males were disproportionately affected in China — smoking is really a male thing there.
If it turns out that otherwise, even old people are much less at risk, I will …. breathe a sigh of relief. But I don’t expect that to be true: I’ve read that diabetics are at high risk for instance.
Jinchi
Right.
I know his physical strength and stamina are extraordinary, he’s the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency (much healthier than our current surgeon general!) and will probably live to be 200 years old if he gives up fast food. But did the president ever get part two of his two-part annual physical?
JMG
My daughter in Bordeaux says her peer group (late 20s-early 30s) and the French in general were not taking the virus seriously enough. A friend of hers had a surprise birthday party for his wife last night. Wife has MS! Hope didn’t go. She felt badly, but acted appropriately.
snoey
@Chetan Murthy: A quarter is probably high because of the underdiagnosed relatively healthy seniors, but viral pneumonia is deadly.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Chetan Murthy: What I haven’t seen anything about is second-hand smoke. Does that also activate the receptors? What about vaping?
BobS
@Abnormal Hiker: The Trump Flu. I like that.
Dorothy A. Winsor
My editor lives in Madrid. She says they’re under complete lockdown–legally, not just a firm suggestion.
ETA: I’m seeing pics of gigantic crowds of Americans in US airports scrambling to get home before they can’t. O’Hare has people penned together for hours while they wait. Then they’ll scatter across the country. Way to spread the disease, Trump.
mali muso
So I’m trying to come up with a game-plan for being alone at home for the next 10 days with a three year old – working remotely and keeping her entertained without just resorting to TV. DH is in Africa visiting family (fingers crossed he can actually get back into the country when he returns). Some of my other friends with kids in my daughter’s age range had suggested rotating childcare duties, but that seems to go against the whole idea of social distancing.
Betty
@Martin: Bingo!!! Testing is an absolute must. Forget about the fever, cough stuff. Test everyone.
Bex
@Anya: Many commonly prescribed drugs suppress the immune system. Check the warnings and take them into consideration when deciding on your actions.
CCL
@BobS: I prefer the “Trump plague” –branding, don’tcha know.
Chetan Murthy
@mali muso: [I have no children and have spent very little time around chlidren since I was one myself] Perhaps arrange with your friends to set up “video play-dates”? display + camera on each end? Just an idea (maybe a really stupid one). So the kiddies get the interaction with each other, and can play with their toys and watch the other kid play with their toys …. ok, I can tell already it feels lame …..
Gvg
@WereBear: Actually, I suspect Russia will be hit harder and Putin is not an idiot but he apparently has blind spots, or maybe Russia does because they did this as the USSR too.
However as an American, Trumps stupidity infuriates me more.
WereBear
I also think we are about to find out just how impervious those reality shields are. Because Fox News has been telling them to take no precautions whatsoever…
Dorothy A. Winsor
@mali muso: I suspect most work will get done while she’s asleep. Would she like a little work station next to yours, maybe with an array of puzzles and books etc.? My DIL is a kindergarten teacher and she posted this on FB about structuring time at home with little kids. Maybe it will help. If you can’t access it, and want to, let me know.
BobS
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I didn’t fucking understand that at all- that screening should have taken place on the plane, and while disembarking. Even if there were cases in that mass of people (and of course there were), now you’ve effectively multiplied them keeping them shoulder to shoulder with other people for hours.
WereBear
A while back I shared an article from The Lancet about two conditions which noted in cases which were more serious: high blood pressure and diabetes.
When you consider red states are more likely to have untreated high blood pressure and diabetes, you can see why those around me kept telling me I was “overreacting” and I was saying, “No, you are all UNDERreacting.”
Dorothy A. Winsor
@BobS: This administration can’t think more than five minutes ahead. And in this case, their hatred of dirty foreigners shrank that to one minute. They never anticipate the consequences of their own actions. They expect to act consequence free.
I live in Chicagoland, so the O’Hare pics really made me cringe.
Andrew Johnston
The news ’round these parts is that an expat bar which was closed by government edict some two months ago is slated to open on Monday…kinda. It’s a heavily restricted sort of “open,” with temperature checks, strict occupancy limits and restrictions on smoking, but that’s still progress. I suspect we’ll start seeing restaurants and coffee shops open up soon, though reduced foot traffic means that some of them will probably remain closed for a while even after the edicts are lifted.
The bar opening is mostly moot for me personally, as I can’t easily get down there, but maybe this will lead to more expat joints opening up. That’s good for a little hope. After all these dried noodles, I think I’d cold-cock the next person I saw if it meant that I could get the opportunity to buy a pizza.
BobS
@CCL: Plague is hyperbolic- flu is what the Village Idiot (sorry, George W., there’s a new, even more ignorant idiot in town) was referring to it as for couple fucking months. That the few adults in the administration were forced to tell the toddler emperor his new clothes looked great is why the US fell a month behind in fighting this. Let him wear ‘flu’ around his neck like a bade of dishonor.
A Ghost to Most
@TriassicSands:
Now imagine that both your entire family, and your spouse’s entire family, all turn into these raving shitbags. This is our reality.
mali muso
@Chetan Murthy: Actually, that’s not a bad idea. I don’t know that they would play so much as talk at each other, but she’s totally verbal and can carry on extensive conversations, so might be a thing that could entertain for a little while. :)
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Thank you, I saw that graphic earlier and was thinking to adapt it for myself. I already told the kiddo that we would be doing “school” (what she calls daycare) at home together for a little while, so I’ve tried to set the expectation that there will be some kind of structure.
She’s more or less dropped her afternoon nap now (which means she goes to bed on the early side, a boon for mommy’s mental health), so no breaks in the day there. Time to do my research on crafts and activities for toddlers. I’m not creative myself, so I’m gonna need resources.
Chetan Murthy
@mali muso: Oh hm, I remember somebody describing their kids putting on their own mock classroom at home? Maybe help make that easier to do? Some arranged group video chats? And let the kids do what they can?
Also, now I remember my friend J telling me how is son A would mimick his work-from-home actions. So maybe yeah, set your kid up a workstation where they can pretend to work like you do, etc, etc.
Soprano2
@WereBear: More people should read “The Cold Equations” to understand that sometimes there’s no happy way out of a situation. I think that’s where the U.S. is now. The feds waited too long to get serious about this, and one news network spend weeks telling all their viewers it was a hoax or all the fault of the media (I heard this several times yesterday.) One guy from Vietnam told me it was so bad in China because of their healthcare system, and that we’ll be fine, and he also tried to tell me that 12,000 in the U.S. died of Ebola several years ago! I wasn’t having that. There are two confirmed cases in my county in MO, but since both were travelers people still aren’t taking it that seriously. Also, it’s about 65-70% Trumpies here, so they’ve been watching Fox News and listening to talk radio.
Anya
@Eric S.: I always assume Trump is lying. In this case, I hope he has the virus. If anyone deserves a plague it’s Trump.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Anya:
There’s time for him to get it. This will last a while and he has trouble resisting the lure of Mar-a-lago, which seems to be a hotbed.
germy
A Ghost to Most
@CCL: It will always be covfefe-45 to me.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@mali muso: there’s Storyline Online.net for reading It features actors reading children’s books (Betty White, James Earl Jones, etc)
will post any YouTube craft resources my friends with kids suggest. There are some fun kitchen science ones I just have to find them again.
germy
Using a pandemic to push for his usual bullshit ideas:
Jinchi
I think if you keep it to a small, self-contained group, isolated from the outside, it would still be effective. This is the sort of set-up lots of people are going to need if this continues for weeks.
Percysowner
@germy: Ohio already THOUGHT of the possibilities and funded online charter schools, to be paid and number students calculated by by hours of attendance. You will be shocked, SHOCKED to find out that students were taking classes 28-36 hours a day 7 days a week. Ohio did shut down the one online school that they found out about and is still trying to get the money back from them.
Chetan Murthy
@Jinchi:
An ID specialist was saying that eventually, once we know who is infected and who is not, everybody will start to do this. But that when you do it, you have to know that the others in the group will not include yet others. In short, you have to have a truly closed, self-contained group. And that is pretty damn tough to ensure. But yeah, if you can get that, if you can get your friends to all agree, it’d be great. The downside of not having it actually closed? Somebody brings in an infected person, they get infected, next thing you know, you’re infected by your kid, and you pass it to your mom, who dies.
This ID person counseled that one should wait until testing is in-place, before building such groups.
J R in WV
One of the other favorite Blogosphere sites I visit is Emptywheel, Marcy Wheeler’s blog, which mostly covers court cases involving government misdeeds, including close coverage of Mr Trump’s legal issues.
Recently Rayne, one of the several Wheeler sidekicks (frontpager analogues to Balloon Juice) posted an article that started out with how glad she was her spawn had strep throat, formerly a killer disease, now mostly easily treated with standard antibiotic treatment. She went on to discuss how to sew facemasks, including a later comment with discussion of a viral inhibitor, NaCl deposited on the mask, including a link to an article discussing research on that viral inhibitor published in Nature. Who knew a layer of salt in your filter could deactivate otherwise deadly pathogens!?
Other participants at Emptywheel contributed improvements to Rayne’s Mother’s design from long ago:
I highly recommend anyone capable of sewing at all take a look at the article and comments. We desperately need these for everyone.
Hope everyone is doing well under these trying circumstances. Keep in touch, please, with any health news, so that we can commiserate and sympathize, and share good thoughts and prayers for those that go there. I get closer every day… as I have heard it said, it can’t hurt and might help !
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That’s an area that hasn’t been covered in our current guest posts on distance teaching. If she would be interested in writing something up, please have her get in touch with me.
Also, if anyone else here has experience being a single parent working from home, a guest post on that would be most welcome.
mali muso
@WaterGirl: This would be a very welcome addition to the resources! thank you.
SWMBO
I remember my kids (in their early years) enjoying Shelly Duvall’s Fairy Tale Theater. It was considered very chi chi back in the day to be in one of these so she got a lot of big names to work in this.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=shelley+duvall+fairytale+theater
Might entertain several generations at once.