Most of the general information I’m seeing on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 is good! I’m pleased not to be complaining about it for a change. There’s one part of the information flow that needs qualification, though.
That genre is the scientific paper. Scientific papers and Twitter threads from scientists often require interpretation. What I’m seeing now is that articles by reputable science journalists are a better guide to what we know than individual papers or threads.
Scientific papers are usually focused very narrowly, but the authors may do some speculating, sometimes labeling it as speculation, sometimes not. Papers on this virus and its disease are being published very quickly, which is good, but they may be less clear on points like this because of rapid editing. In any case, a single paper seldom has broad implications.
They also may come to wrong conclusions, not because anyone is doing anything wrong, but because not all the data are in. For example, here’s a New Scientist article on why children seem more resistant to the virus than adults. One way that could happen is that adults’ more developed immune systems overreact to the virus; however, the other day, in a press conference, Anthony Fauci said that the problem is that older adults’ immune systems are weaker. We just don’t know at this point.
I saw a thread about modeling the outbreak that looked very scary. Modeling depends on many assumptions, and I’m not seeing them stated. This is something I know something about: the mathematics of epidemiology overlap greatly with the mathematics of chemical kinetics, which was a large part of my career. BTW, this is a very cool illustration of how a virus spreads. It could also be repurposed for chemical kinetics.
That thread contained many, many assumptions. I could figure out what some were, and there were enough parameters not known well that I would not trust that modeling. I take it as one possibility among many and wonder what would happen if you tweaked some of the parameters. The scary thing is that the UK is planning its response on the basis of a model.
And be particularly careful of the claims of profit-making companies. In this case, the real story seems to be “We want to make a bunch of money if the government will give us some more and approve all our applications.” It’s possible they have something that will be useful, but this article doesn’t tell us that.
If someone touts a scientific paper or presents a “model”, I read it and mentally file it for comparison with later results. I seldom retweet it. Or you can forget about it too. If there’s a real breakthrough, we’ll hear about it.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner
Raven Onthill
Thank you.
This also applies to primary source historical documents; without the context a historian provides they can be incredibly misleading. (Right wingers who use historical documents as “proof texts,” I’m looking at you. Come to think of it, it also applies to use of the bible as a proof text.)
bbleh
Modeling depends on many assumptions, and I’m not seeing them stated.
This is an excellent point, and it’s incumbent on anyone developing or using a model to present their assumptions clearly and up front. “Garbage in, garbage out” applies as much (or even more!) to assumptions as to input data.
But.
There is just no substitute for modeling as a decision-making tool at this point. We can’t wait for “all the data” before making crucial decisions; if we do, we’ll always be too late. Of course, we should always develop and inform models with the latest available data, and we should constantly update them when new data arrive. And of course we must understand their assumptions, their limitations, and their uncertainties when interpreting their results. (As to the last, anyone who gives me a single-point modeling result rather than a range, preferably with associated probabilities, gets sent back for a refresher course.)
As several of my senior colleagues have said, “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” In the present situation, modeling isn’t just useful; it’s essential.
MattF
One thing to keep in mind is that detection and reporting are having exponential growth just like the infection. We want to know what’s happening at infection sites, but the mechanisms for finding that out are also growing with the infection and have to get disentangled from the infection.
trollhattan
Thanks Cheryl, much appreciated.
Some of my most-memorable meetings included engineers and modelers fighting. Good clean fun.
CA COVID-19 news: Governor has encouraged 65 and older folks to stay the heck home and “He also asked for closure of bars, wine bars, breweries and pubs, and called for restaurants to reduce their occupancy by half. He called that “deep social distancing.”
This was about an hour ago.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241212146.html#storylink=cpy
trollhattan
@Raven Onthill:
I think you just described the Federalist Society business plan: Make the Constitution mean what you want it to mean.
Cheryl Rofer
@bbleh: I agree there is no substitute for modeling right now. I know that the government agencies have epidemiological models, and I’m sure that the civil service folks are using them with all appropriate care. Come to think of it, I haven’t seen any of those results, which might be helpful in our understanding of the situation. We can speculate as to why they have not been released.
I had a particular thread in mind when I wrote the post. It did a good job of laying out all the uncertainties, and then presented one scenario, which was the one the writer said he thought was most probable. I would have preferred to see maybe two scenarios that could show the effects of the uncertainties. Obviously Twitter threads are not the best place to lay out all one’s assumptions, but to just show one scenario with no explanation of rationale???
Poe Larity
Response on ACE inhibitors: https://www.escardio.org/Councils/Council-on-Hypertension-(CHT)/News/position-statement-of-the-esc-council-on-hypertension-on-ace-inhibitors-and-ang
And this Singapore site, crazy details and I guess they dont do Hippa: https://co.vid19.sg/cases
Zelma
Our own David Anderson has a column I the NYT right now. I can’t say enough about his contributions to Balloon Juice over the years. He explains complex stuff so clearly.
WereBear
I’m reminded of Ulysses S. Grant, radically undervalued President:
In Ulysses S. Grant: Triumph over Adversity, 1822-1865 by Brooks Simpson, when asked if his strategy is going to work, Grant simply states:
The Dangerman
I caught 5 minutes of the President before going out for a few more things; stores calmer today than yesterday. I’m sure everyone heard Trump and saw that shit eating grin on his face (only time I see that kind of smile on a guys face, he’s either saved a shit-ton on his massive debt load – refinance, Donny, refinance – or he just got some) and decided all was well – let’s buy that house and take that vacation, Martha.
No. Unfuckingbelievably no. The Fed could fly crop dusters around the country and spray money from here to there, but schools aren’t opening any time soon, no one is going to go out for dinner and a movie any time soon, and no one is buying that new house any time soon.
I assume that market should react positively to a rate cut, but seeing Trump up there acting like he’s getting a rub down (run up?) from behind the podium pisses me off and makes me wonder if the market says, well, this Dude IS that fucking dumb. I don’t know. We’ll see tomorrow.
Elizabelle
@Zelma: Thank you for the head’s up!
In the New York Times:
This Is One Anxiety We Should Eliminate for the Coronavirus Outbreak
A patient can do everything right and still face substantial surprise medical bills.
By David Anderson and Nicholas Bagley
Mr. Anderson and Mr. Bagley are health care scholars.
Martin
I’d like to make clear my modeling is of the ‘if we do nothing’ variety. Obviously we’re doing something. Obviously even if the feds did nothing, the states, cities, or just us individually would be doing something.
Assuming we aren’t making things worse (usually a dangerous assumption, but our sense of self-preservation usually minimizes that chance at a time like this) then my models won’t ever come remotely to pass in the long term. But if it serves to keep you the fuck home and washing your hands, then I’ll accept the criticism for being alarmist. Someone needed to a week or two ago.
There’s just too many variables at play for an accurate model. What’s happening is Seattle isn’t remotely like what’s happening in Council Bluffs, and never will be. If nothing else, they are in different points of this, with different degrees of preparation simply due to being in different points of this. Further, it’s unclear how long this will last and what’s sustainable over that time, and that will be a big variable here. We may want to lock everyone away for 2 weeks, but someone needs to keep the water and power flowing, respond to fires, folks working at hospitals still need to buy gas to get to work, etc. How much we can and can’t afford over a given period of time will change.
But I’m feeling a lot better about things today than 2 days ago. We’ve got action. Finally.
Now I’m just looking for that inflection point. It’ll come. Hopefully not too late.
bbleh
@Cheryl Rofer: Perhaps unfortunately, modeling is “easy” in that almost anyone can say, “hey, that’s cool, I can do that too!” But good modeling — and good presentation of results — is much harder.
And as to one scenario, you’re absolutely right, and that’s what I meant by uncertainty in results. All models are subject to uncertainty, pretty much always significant uncertainty, and it’s incumbent on a modeler both to identify explicitly any significant uncertainty and to show its implications. Results properly should be presented as a range or a set, with associated probabilities whenever possible.
Martin
@Poe Larity: Actually, most of that stuff can be published in the US even with HIPAA. Many HIPAA protections on disclosure are suspended in the case of public health issues. You can’t do contact tracing without revealing that stuff, at least to someone.
I should add, same with FERPA. Those restrictions are also loosened in the case of public health.
cain
Y’all – GenX is trending on twitter – since apparently we are the only generation who knows how to stay the fuck home and entertain ourselves.
Baud
@cain:
A lifetime of access to Internet pornography has its benefits.
The Dangerman
@Baud:
XKCD, Rule 34.
West of the Rockies
That garbage Stanford Study that was floated, shot down, then refloated here was horrible. “Within a few hours your lungs are 50% fibrosis.”
billcinsd
@Cheryl Rofer: While I do not know of the thread you are referencing, not doing a sensitivity analysis or reporting any alternatives is not good modeling. This and your original point about assumptions are why most economic modeling is ridiculously bad
senyordave
@Elizabelle: A patient can do everything right and still face substantial surprise medical bills.
I hope to hell that the Democrats make health care access and affordability one of the centerpieces of the campaign, and constantly emphasize how Trump tried to kill the ACA without any replacement. I’d like to see Biden constantly make the point that every American has a right to health care.
Of course now the Democrats have to also emphasize how dangerous it can be to have a president who folds in a crisis.
Many, many people will die solely because Hillary Clinton is not president. It would also be nice to think that Bernie and his Berniebros come to realize that fact.
Patricia Kayden
debbie
@West of the Rockies:
I can’t tell you how many times that has shown up in my FB feed.
debbie
@Elizabelle:
NPR has been running a series on surprise medical bills. We need to reclassify hospitals as payday lenders and proceed accordingly.
trollhattan
No comment necessary.
bluehill
@Patricia Kayden: talk about leading from behind
Elizabelle
@debbie: COVID-19 is exposing so many horrible aspects of life in the US. Some of this will be beneficial, in the long run.
prostratedragon
@Patricia Kayden:
By contrast …
West of the Rockies
@Martin:
The fact that you feel more positive brings me genuine relief. I’d swiftly come to recognize the authority in your comments on this subject.
I SOOOO enjoy hearing from our remarkable authorities here: Cheryl, Adam, David, Tom, and multiple commentators. I equally love the humanity and humor and insights from BC, AL, and all the rest
Cole, you run a first-rate blog here.
chris
This model ain’t workin’. The Fed dropped its interest rate to zero to “calm the markets.” Stock futures are limit down, crude oil and gasoline falling and gold is rising as the US dollar falls. This is gonna suck.
Shitshow.
mapaghimagsik
I’ve been playing around with loading data from different sources — covidtracking (first heard about them from TPM) John Hopkins, and WHO. I probably should add CDC in the mix too. There’s variances in each of the sites, due to timing and interpretation, but they generally track in the right grouping, it seems.
I figured if some site came up with wild numbers, I could look at the data I’d gathered and see if it was plausible. I give kudos to the folks at covidtracking because they list out the state web sites they are going to.
I wanted to see which states had flatter curves and which states did not. For example, if 50% of your maximum was achieved yesterday, that’s not a good day. But if 98%, then while that was going up, that’s a pretty good day.
Baud
@West of the Rockies:
The Baud! administration’s cabinet would have been something else.
TS (the original)
@The Dangerman:
The market didn’t react positively to the last cut – and it won’t this time either. Australian markets are currently down 6.5% and they have only been open for 25 minutes. US futures are down.
And in relation to failed monetary policy (been failing for 40 years) – I am reminded I have seen nothing about the debt ceiling in many months. Has this administration decided to abandon said debt ceiling – and/or does it only apply to democratic party administrations?
Another Scott
(Link to WaPo story about models of how to “flatten the curve”.)
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@Baud:
Is that why people are going out to get toilet paper?? :D
Mary G
Here is my half assed study.
I have been unable to buy a thermometer. I don’t usually have one because my RA flares include low grade fevers and I can find myself obsessively taking my temp. Amazon has some from third party sellers, but the ones that come fast are pricey and the ones that come cheap aren’t expected to be delivered until April 10.
But I do have an instant read kitchen thermometer. I washed the probe well with soap and water, then sprayed it all over with Clorox Cleanup, rinsed it well with warm water, and stuck it under my tongue. Reading was 97.7, well within my normal. So I am happy with this workaround.
My housemates are caregivers already what I used to privately consider a bit obsessed with handwashing, but now I am glad. We have nitrile gloves, sanitizing hand wipes, alcohol in wipes and bottles, and large bottles of hand sanitizer in each car. The teen has stayed at home since yesterday, because he was tired of being yelled at to take a shower immediately and change clothes by his mom and step dad, along with me saying dramatically “I DON’T WANT TO DIE” at him. Everyone has their exclusive zone – mine is bedroom and desk – no one else is allowed to enter. We text each other. Only one person can be in the kitchen at a time.
Between us we have subscriptions to Netflix, Prime, Hulu, Sling, and HBO. Every room has a bowlful of cut up onions and garlic in it which is replaced once a day. This is a Guatemalan custom to ward off contagion. Supermarkets are low, but we have been growing them in our raised beds and buying them cheap at the 99 cent store and Asian market.
Another Scott
@TS (the original): Debt ceiling is suspended until 2021 (part of the 2019 budget deal).
Cheers,
Scott.
The Dangerman
@chris:
Trump should do nothing but spend the rest of his term playing golf. This is called payback, MFer, for signing the chart on Friday.
cain
@Elizabelle:
As I was saying elsewhere, this virus is going to level set everything. So many are going to get a dose of reality. They’ve fed so much bullshit with the climate change stuff, they are treating this just like climate change a hoax, nothing to care about – it’s going to come and it’s going to spread like wildfire especially amongst Republican voters.
Defying everything to own the libs is the same fucking playbook. They are going to pay for it in pain and sadness.
cain
@chris:
That’s not going to work, you need people to do work. You’re uplifting the wrong institutions. You can have all of that but it if people stay home, getting bankrupted or what not – there still won’t be an fluidity in the markets. We are going to get fucked.
chris
@The Dangerman: He’s on the phone right now refinancing as fast as he can.
Ken
I don’t think he did this weekend, did he? Maybe someone managed to convince him that it’s a Real Bad Look.
TS (the original)
@Another Scott: Thanks – I thought it had to be something like that. Only for democratic administrations then. Republicans can spend as their hearts’ desire.
chris
@cain: Oh yeah, my “gonna suck” comment covers a multitude of horrors. Hunger, homelessness and death to name a few.
CantTurnRight
@Cheryl Rofer:
Cheryl, how well do you think this model by Kevin Drum meets your standards?
The Dangerman
Well, I’ve heard about negative interest rates (Japan?) … how does that work? They try to give you free money and then give you more money if you take it? I don’t understand it but … sounds hinky.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
If you’ve seen the tweet going around from the woman who bragged that she went out to a Red Robbin last night and it was crowded and her burger was delicious, and has subsequently been tweeting that the liberal media can’t take away her right to spread a disease and why should she worry about infection people when she doesn’t feel sick? She is, of course, running for public office. I’m guessing that’s Clark County School District.
the twitter bio has books and a colorful crown in it. I suspect the crown means something jesusy but I don’t know for sure
Barbara
@Martin: Has Mr. Google come to save us all yet with that fancy new CV portal?
Felanius Kootea
@Zelma: Nice! I tweeted out his article because eliminating surprise medical bills should be a priority but who knows with the bunch of clowns running the federal government right now.
Martin
@cain: Thank god we get credit for something.
West of the Rockies
@cain:
Worst case scenario climate change possibilities make the Coronavirus look like a walk in the park. Yes, the world needs to wake up now–perhaps C19 will be the alarm.
Cheryl Rofer
@CantTurnRight: What Kevin is doing isn’t a model. He’s comparing data from various countries to what has happened in Italy, and all the countries are on pretty much the same line. I think UK is a little below it, which is kind of surprising given what’s been going on there, but we’ll see how it turns out.
The limit on what Kevin is doing is that the United States hasn’t been testing as much as the other countries, and he says that. So the US might even be worse than Italy.
Another Scott
@The Dangerman: Switzerland (IIRC) had negative interest rates for a while after the housing bubble popped. Basically, as I understand it, it works exactly the way you expect: You pay more than face value to buy a bond and at the end of the term you get face value back. (Similarly if it pays interest – you still pay more for it than it’s “worth” at the end of the term accounting for the interest.) The incentive is – your money is safe and you’re guaranteed to get the face value back at the end.
Cheers,
Scott.
chris
@The Dangerman: A negative interest rate is exactly what it sounds like, you pay them to hold your money. Gonna get pricey when the wealth tax happens.//
Martin
@Barbara: Considering Mr Google was unaware they were doing the thing the President promised they would have up and running immediately, I’m going to say no.
A subsidiary of Googles parent company was working on a portal that health care workers in California could use, developed in close coordination with the State Dept of Public Health. But that wasn’t intended for the public, so it’s not certain it could even work if it was designed around patient data, and it wasn’t intended for a national rollout since it only knew how to work with California data that was being offered up by the state.
So yeah, this was example number infinity for things that states and cities had taken the initiative to do, which Trump tried to then take credit for but ends up lying about in the process.
Where the fuck are the pagans that need someone to chuck into a volcano to end this when we need them?
Uncle Cosmo
@Baud: The Baud!?!???! administration’s cabinet would’ve been a breakfront. Or maybe a sideboard. ;^p
The Dangerman
@Martin:
Oh, that must have been a fun meeting at Google after THAT little oopsie…
…I reiterate, Trump should just go golfing.
Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: I’ve been tracking fatalities, because that’s at least tracked with reasonable accuracy. The test data is bullshit. As testing expands it makes things look even worse as you get these big surges in cases.
On the fatality curve, we’re doing slightly better than Italy. Mind you, slightly better means increasing by an order of magnitude every 10 days instead of every 8, but hey, you take what you can get.
Since it takes at least 2 weeks to see a change in fatalities as a result of actions, it’s pretty early yet to see any change even in Italy. More than anything I’m thankful we haven’t see a tick upward, suggesting they’ve had to resort to more extreme measures. This all assumes that non-hospital fatalities are getting reported quickly and accurately, which I’m a bit uncertain of.
Martin
@The Dangerman: I kind of imagine everyone at Google running around yelling ‘fuck! fuck! fuck!’ as they realize they’ve been committed to this bit of national infrastructure that they haven’t even heard of.
CantTurnRight
@Cheryl Rofer: Thanks for the quick reply!
If I understand correctly, he’s trying to estimate how closely each country is matching the growth rate of Italy. Are the models (that you are skeptical of) trying to predict how each country’s growth rate will change in response to public health policies (i.e. quarantine, etc.)?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Don’t we have good examples with the countries that have done wide spreed testing in their population?
The Lodger
@Uncle Cosmo: No. No. No. The classic Balloon Juice answer is a credenza.