For those of you who for some reason are not aware, I am a worst case scenario kind of guy. I always just assume and prepare myself mentally for the worst, and then if I am wrong, I can be pleasantly surprised. Mostly this is a good thing and works out, although the election of Trump caught me off guard.
At any rate, I keep hearing things like a month, two months, and I think this is WILDLY underestimating how long we are going to have to deal with coronavirus. It would not surprise me if in some areas we are in a hole up in place scenario for six months or more. And that is if we get our shit together soon, which does not seem likely.
Right now, we are still just half-assing everything, and the most dangerous aspect is we are still nowhere near testing enough. Social isolation will work, but people are going to stop doing it if they do not have evidence of it working. Since we have not done adequate testing, we literally have no idea for scientists to accurately state whether it is working. Right now, the numbers mean nothing- imagine an alien coming to earth and telling them they are rich they have 1 million dollars. They have no comprehension what money even is, or anything to base a million dollars on, and it is meaningless. Same with our case numbers. We have no basis other than yes, there are more than there were before. And this is because we have not done near enough testing.
Therein lies the problem- if we had an adequate baseline, we’d be able to, in a few weeks, point to the new numbers and determine whether our social distancing was working. All people are going to see are the numbers continuously rising, and say to themselves “I’ve been locked in my house for three weeks and the numbers keep going up, fuck this I am going out.” Obviously that is a problem.
On top of all that, Trump can keep calling this a war, but he sure isn’t acting like it. We should have commandeered manufacturing facilities weeks ago and started cranking out tests and protective gear and supplies. Instead we’re, well- I don’t know what the fuck we are doing.
Long story short- I just see this going on for much longer than people anticipate, and am planning accordingly. I am going to squeeze more raised beds into my yard, buy more mason jars, get staples like dried beans and frozen meat, and hope for the best.
THIS IS JUST MY OPINION. I AM NOT TRYING TO SCARE PEOPLE OR CAUSE A PANIC. IT IS MY STATE OF MIND AND I MAY BE VERY, VERY WRONG.
NotMax
One thing have not seen addressed is whether testing locations will be designated ICE-free zones.
Zzyzx
Well the good news, such as it is, is that if shelter in place doesn’t work, it’ll mean it’ll take less time, not more. It’s just that the next 2-3 months will be completely awful.
Cameron
Hey, y’don’t like it here, move to South Korea.
trollhattan
Our path out will more closely resemble Italy than China, so watch them to get a hint of what’s to come.
PenAndKey
Every case curve I’ve seen has a 4 month minimum curve of case spikes. Yet the best I’ve seen is “we’ll give our employees an extra two weeks of emergency leave” and a two month forbearance on student loan payments as of today. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve already contacted my loan service company Nelnet and requested my forbearance for the next two months and told my wife who’s laid off at home to do the same, but that’s a drop in the bucket as far as “solutions” go.
Johnny Gentle (famous crooner)
Trump daring to now declare himself a “wartime president” is yet another nauseating attempt to paper over his failures and silence critics. Clearly the sycophants around him remember how much mileage and leeway GWB got for years by doing the same thing. You know how it goes–Rally ’round the president while we’re at war! Don’t criticize the wartime president or the virus wins!
If implementing non-military emergency measures in a domestic time of crisis qualifies you as a “wartime president,” then clearly Obama was deserving of the same label when he took office amidst the Great Recession. (Who am I kidding — imagine the uproar if he had tried something as brazen and calculated as pretending he was “at war.”)
Hopefully the media isn’t stupid enough to embrace and amplify it this time. Sadly, I fear they will because they’re addicted to this “war” shit like it’s crack. They all yearn to be part of a great national struggle so they have their own Next Greatest Generation story to tell.
Mary G
I don’t think you’re wrong. Watching that press conference made me feel WASF, because the administration and Republicans in general don’t want to take profits away from corporations just to save poor people’s lives. Ron and Boris Johnson (no relation, I don’t think) have both said the quiet part out loud. They want to let it rage through the population killing off us olds and disableds who cost a lot in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. That way everyone else survives and gets immunity faster so they can resume looting.
trollhattan
@Cameron:
Think they’d have us? Craving bibimbap right now, plus my phone is acting up. I can edit owner’s manuals.
Brachiator
Yeah, Trump is kinda fucking things up, but the CDC and other agencies are doing OK despite his ham-fisted BS. And state and local governments, especially in NY and CA are handling things well.
Cranking out gear and supplies is not a huge problem, and would be less so if people didn’t panic.
The one thing that I am not clear on, which might be a significant issue, is whether Bayer is cranking out a shitload of the malaria drug. If so, this may be a dumb, dumb, dumbass mis-allocation of resources. This is the thing that bothers me, that Trump will insist on letting his ignorance direct policy into unhelpful areas.
Again, the pros are largely doing OK, and the states are handling things well, for the most part.
evodevo
Nope…you’re right on the money. And I expect the next year to be a hellscape when everyone figures it out…
TaMara (HFG)
I’m having a bad day. You’re not helping. Sigh.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I posted this in the two previous threads. I might as well do it here too. Illinois is on lockdown starting tomorrow. Our governor is not fooling around.
Mr. Mack
Just means, like me, you’re a planner. On the other hand, I always say “men plan, God laughs”.
8 man shell
@trollhattan:
Yeah, I’ve been on semi-frantic conference calls over the past few days trying to do long/medium/short term planning and it seems the plurality view is 2 weeks, maybe 4 duration.
That is silly, but I’ve given up trying to argue this point.
We’re loading up our truck today with 8 weeks of supplies and heading to our summer place to get out of the city. (And that will not be enough)
If we had a competent government, this crisis would be an excellent opportunity to nationalize healthcare and seize assets of the 0.1% to pay for it. But … alas.
[edited for typos and such]
JAFD
Happy First Day of Spring (for all ye Northern Hemisphere Jackals)
Anyway, if you’re short of reading material, checkout
https://about.muse.jhu.edu/resources/freeresourcescovid19/
And if you want an ironical chuckle
https://twitter.com/fossa99/status/1240769689581740033
And remember what the coach said, when they demonstrated The Robot Quarterback,
“This, too, shall pass.”
E.
I live in a small town in Northern California. Not one single business other than mine is complying with the order. Hair salons both open. Hardware store open. Both bars open — and one of them is holding a party tonight. The band canceled on them so they got some locals together to play. Bike place open. Second hand store open. Real estate office open. Fucking craziness.
MazeDancer
There may be a respite in July and August. But all virusses have a second wave. This one will, too, come the Fall.
It’s at least a year, maybe more, til it’s safe for high risk groups.
This is assuming there is no re-infection. That people who have recovered are immune.
MattF
@Johnny Gentle (famous crooner): Trump completely lacks empathy. It’s a vacuum in there. Zero, zilch, nihil, nothing, nada, empty, pfft. You can’t infer that ‘something’ will happen, because otherwise people will suffer. The ‘wartime’ label supposes some sort of normality, but it’s just not there.
Wapiti
Wartime footing idea #365: emergency requisition of all excess/unoccupied housing and apartment units for homeless shelters or quarantine location.
Scout211
After over 40 years in the mental health field, I am now retired. From that experience, I do understand why authorities are giving people short time periods right now for home isolation and social distancing. The authorities understand it will be longer than a few weeks, but are very reluctant to lay out the facts because the effect on many people when they face MONTHS and not WEEKS of home isolation can be psychologically devastating. All kinds of reactions can start happening when people feel that distraught, including outright rebellion. Some people can handle the truth but most people need that truth in small bits.
My two cents.
zhena gogolia
@TaMara (HFG):
Same here.
gvg
We won’t really be past it till President bumblestupid is out of the white house. Preferably GOP losing the senate too. Biden needs to be interviewing candidates for various positions. Normally that would look arrogant but right now it would probably calm things down. I don’t know what else to do.
Raven Onthill
You’re right; that’s what the experts say. The situation will evolve in directions we don’t expect and the administration will continue to blow it. Things may not return to something like normal until vaccines are available, and that’s at least a year out.
In other news, this exchange on Twitter:
Ang
Note for those of us who may be using dry beans for the first time: dry _kidney_ beans must be boiled for 10 minutes to be safe. I have seen recommendations as long as 30min just to be sure they reach the proper temperature for long enough. They have a protein that can cause serious vomiting/diarrhea if not cooked properly. Slow cooking alone is not enough.
https://u.osu.edu/chowline/2013/04/17/dry-kidney-beans-need-to-be-boiled/
CaseyL
As the individual states step up and the Feds continue to be pretty much useless, my question about Afterwards is whether the US will break apart into semi-autonomous regions.
Trump and the GOP have very nearly succeeded in turning the entire Federal Government, including the court system, into their personal fiefdom. We can’t rely on it for accurate information, effective assistance, protection, or justice. About all that’s left are safety net programs, which are of course tattered beyond recognition.
Particularly if the GOP raids SocSec and Medicare, as they’re trying to do via “suspend payroll taxes” (which SFAIK Democrats have successfully pushed back against) then it seems to me the Federal Government will have no purpose whatsoever.
There may come a point where the states, esp. the Blue states, have to ask themselves why they continue to send tax revenues to DC when they get nothing back.
(If there is a Democratic sweep in November, and I do mean a SWEEP; and we can somehow mitigate the damage done to the Courts and the various agencies, then maybe we can get back to some kind of pre-Plague normalcy. But I’m not feeling hopeful right now.)
Cheryl Rofer
Something to emphasize is that actions taken today will have an effect on the numbers only two weeks from now. What we are seeing today is infections that were transmitted two weeks ago. And, of course, the infections we didn’t see because we didn’t test.
The results of all these states taking action will only be apparent two weeks from now.
Two. Weeks. From. Now.
JPL
@zhena gogolia: also
Baud
@Cameron:
Or, you know, elect Democrats.
Although moving to S.K. may be easier.
Geoboy
If Trump had been president in 1942 we’d be fighting delaying actions in the Sierra Nevada and Appalachin Mountains.
Zelma
I’m one of the lucky ones. Retired, steady adequate income. Full freezer. (But there is no toilet paper in Cape May County.). But I know lots of people who are not so lucky: my massage therapist, the servers at my favorite restaurants, the store clerks, the staff at local hotels, etc. A check for $1000 isn’t even a bandaid for them. And it is not going to be over in a couple of weeks. Many of the folks who are worst hit are not eligible for unemployment insurance and even if they are, it is not going to replace their earnings. And the Republicans are talking about tax cuts for corporations.
You have every right to expect the worst. How do you shut down an entire economy without grievous pain and how do you restart it if this pandemic ever comes to an end? Has anybody even addressed this? Certainly our president* has not.
I’m facing what a supposedly “minor” crisis with my little local church. If we can’t have services, our income plummets. And we have ongoing expenses like everyone else. And how do we provide for our members who are understandably pretty scared right now?
Baud
@Geoboy: Trump wouldn’t fight the Nazis. Maybe the Japanese though.
8 man shell
@CaseyL:
“my question about Afterwards is whether the US will break apart into semi-autonomous regions.”
“No” is the answer to that question.
Poe Larity
The Imperial College report makes it clear that social distancing (not necissarily same as shelter-at-home) and school closures are a 2020+ thing.
There is no way to allow schools back full-time and build up herd immunity w/o killing a lot of people. I’ll predict (as discussed in the IC report) that we may see some hybrid, kids go to school for 2 weeks in Fall, at home for 3, rinse/repeat.
Would allow families/employers much more flexibility in planning. Another suggestion, drop SS to 60 and tell everyone they’re retired until there’s a vaccine/treatment.
Jay
Litlebritdifrnt
Over here in the UK Boris Johnson just announced closing all pubs, clubs, bars, restaurants, gyms, cafes etc. However he also announced that the GOVERNMENT will be paying employers 80% of the wages of people unable to work due to this and expecting the employers to pick up the other 20%. He also suspended collection of taxes, business rates (property taxes) and other taxes in order to keep the businesses afloat. He is throwing HUGE amounts of money at the problem and basically says that we will just have to sort it out after the crisis abates. It may come back to bite us when the crisis is over (hello austerity?) but to me it seems like the most sensible approach right now.
James E Powell
I am the same way. I attribute it to living in Cleveland the first 43 years of my life. I cannot allow myself to be optimistic. I understand that a lot of people absolutely need a cheery positive outlook no matter what to get through the day. I try not to bring them down, I really do, but sometimes I can’t hold back.
White & Gold Purgatorian
I feel the same way. Social distancing if not social lockdown is going to be needed for many months, maybe a year, or until there is a workable preventative such as a vaccine. Living in this red state I see many people not taking this seriously.
This morning I got my protective stuff together and did the grocery shopping. At Whole Foods, where the customer base leans more liberal most people were gloved, some in masks, everyone being careful not to get too close. At Publix out in the county there were maybe 2 of us wearing gloves, 1 person had a mask and most shoppers were behaving as normal, stopping to chat in groups, crowding others, definitely not keeping far apart.
They haven’t tested much here, haven’t found many cases, it is Trump country, and my neighbors just aren’t taking it seriously. If something doesn’t get their attention these folks will be back to normal inside of 2 weeks. even though the local medical community is speaking in very serious terms about shortages of equipment, supplies and personnel.
Zelma
@Litlebritdifrnt:
What a shocking development. Boris Johnson is doing the right thing. Or at least a better thing. Who’d a thought!
debbie
@Litlebritdifrnt:
What happened to his plan to just let COVID-19 run through the population to get it over with?
narya
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I have been very impressed w/ JB; and w/ Mayor Lightfoot, for that matter. Looks to be sunny and cold tomorrow, so I can at least go for a run.
Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: 2 weeks if we’re lucky. The papers I’m reading put fatalities typically 17-21 days after symptoms (5 days after infection). So every prevented infection could take 22-26 days to show up in the fatality data. So if we stopped new infections cold today, the fatality numbers could climb a LOT over the next 3 weeks before starting to slow down.
My fatality model shows the US increasing fatalities an order of magnitude every 10 days, so no new infections today would put us at 2K fatalities in 10 days, 20K in 20 days, and around 90K in that 22-26 range. I’m assuming all of our measures prior to today have done something and fatalities will slow before those numbers, but for people who don’t have an intuitive sense of these things, it’s hard to wrap your head around how things can go so bad so fast, and that the numbers above aren’t a sign that things are getting worse, just that they’re on track to do what we expected.
James E Powell
@MattF:
It’s not just Trump who lacks empathy. “F–k you I got mine” and “Let him die!” are at the core of Republican ideology. And ~42% of Americans absolutely agree that if bad things happen to other people the appropriate response is “tough shit losers!”
Kristine
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I wondered if/when.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Lucky you. And I mean that sincerely.
James E Powell
@Jay:
And just a couple days ago there was some hope that Italy was at a plateau.
Humdog
Question: if the federal government is not planning on supplying the strategic reserves of PPEs or ventilators and such to the states, why are they currently outbidding states who are trying to resupply themselves? I haven’t seen any reasons given why the fed are buying if they are not going to distribute.
My husband suspects the strategic reserves will be used, in this “administration”, for shitstain’s friends and other wealthy connecteds. I’m not willing to be that conspiratal yet, but in the absence of explanation, I do wonder.
Roger Moore
@8 man shell:
Yeah, that’s completely crazy. The countries that have been successful (or at least have claimed success) at breaking the chain of transmission have gone on lockdown for a couple of months, and they have not gone straight back to business as usual afterward. We’ll be lucky if things are anything like back to normal by the election.
PenAndKey
My guess? somebody put the fear of God into him and reminded him that if he’s on record as doing nothing when the fatalities spike it’ll be his head on a spike. Possibly literally.
low-tech cyclist
Totally agree with you, John.
A week ago, we’d just gotten the word that full-time telework was encouraged, and my new boss was asking me how long I thought that policy would last. “Until mid-April, maybe?” he asked. I told him the COVID-19 storm would still be gathering force in mid-April, and that we might be back in June if we were lucky. (Narrator voice: no way in hell we’ll be that lucky.)
Now that another week has passed, and we’ve all seen the pictures of the spring break crowds in Florida, and heard about people cramming the bars last weekend, it’s clear that IF we avoid a quick and disastrous peak in May, it’s going to take most or all of the year, and maybe into early next year, before we get back to some sort of new normal.
By ‘new normal’ I mean a world where the virus is still with us, still killing people, but it looks like we’re finally at low risk of its overwhelming our health care system.
rikyrah
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Thank goodness???
cain
Shorter COVID-19: I’m going to fuck you people until you have good government.
Unknown known
The more Trump muffs this up, the faster the virus will spread, and the less time it will take for the peak to pass (also, the bigger the pile of dead grandpa’s… And THAT is the electoral poison).
Fair Economist
I think some regions will have the bad experiences that will keep most places in the US in line. I noticed that California, which is expected to be really bad, has current case rates per population below several other states not on the “oh shit” list, like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Flu surveillance looks very suspicious in FL – their season was ending but reported flu rates have almost doubled over the past 2 weeks even as the % testing positive for flu continues to drop.
WereBear
Yes, that’s what I’m seeing in NY Governor Cuomo’s press briefings. First what we might do, what we’re doing now, then next time everything moves up a step
“It’s about the science, it’s about the math,” he keeps saying. And that’s true.
Dmbeaster
You are right. The lack of testing undermines the entire response. It is why the failure to get testing started ASAP (unlike the rest of the world which listened to pandemic experts) was such a disaster, and continues to dull the effectiveness of the response. The US had the worst response of all advanced nations to this disease. It is unknowable just how bad it will get.
Brachiator
@Mary G:
A lot of wealthy CEOs and their wives and older children are also in high risk groups. They are painting a target on their own backs if they think that they can cull the population.
Not how it works. And the predictions about herd immunity being conferred on the survivors is not quite correct.
ant
My guess is that it spreads a lot easier than anyone realizes, and is improving in that regard continually.
I think it will all be over in May. Everyone will have gotten it by then.
I think this is a goal, for the Trump administration, that they are actively working towards a Nov election, with some buffer for people to forget. Maybe Joe had an email account or something. We can focus on that for a while.
terry chay
@E.: They had the same problem (on a lesser scale) in the 6 counties in SF Bay.
What the police did was go around and give warnings. I believe in San Jose they gave out 56 warnings this week to exactly those businesses you mention. I gather in these cases they complied because the police have yet to give a citation.
To my knowledge, a single business has refused to comply after warnings: a gun store in Alameda. I think that was a combination of the fact that Alameda has a “law-and-order” sheriff’s office and it being one of the more conservative areas in the Bay. In any case, even their sheriff had enough and was getting reading to send his deputies when he complied (my guess: phone call to him at the last minute). He’s going to try to “sue to county and the state.” Lol!
Similar thing will happen there.
Any lack of compliance or enforcement will cause those areas to get hit harder. After all, New York City was about a week behind the SF Bay in all areas other than testing and they’re now reporting over 1k new cases per day (about as much as California has reported since the outbreak started). That’s not just testing too: about 11K tests have been completed in the state and they’ll have the results of 11K more in the next two days. (Still, it’s annoying that our tests take 3 days to run while the rest of the world takes 3 hours.
This disease really doesn’t care. It “rewards” those who are active by not hitting as hard and those who cover up, deceive, or ignore it with a collapse of their medical services and a death toll to match.
low-tech cyclist
What we really need is a simultaneous nationwide shelter-in-place for, say, three weeks, with maybe a week’s warning to get your shit ready for it. If some (even most) states are doing the right thing but others aren’t doing jack shit, the virus will keep on spreading, period.
This is one of the many places where the dereliction of duty by our alleged President has endangered us all. The House needs to impeach him for this, and I don’t give a good goddamn that they’ve already impeached him once. Many people will die because of his two months of happy talk, and more will die for his absence of leadership even now that he’s admitted things aren’t going well. He needs to be removed, and the House should do its part in making it happen. If the Senate refuses to get rid of him, then they share the responsibility for all the deaths.
mrmoshpotato
Holy fuck.
What an orange sack of shit! And Dense, what is an “average American?”
Roger Moore
@Scout211:
I assume some of it is also a matter of honestly not knowing how long it’s going to be. If you really don’t know, it’s better to say “at least until [date]” rather than jumping straight to “indefinitely”.
hells littlest angel
As soon as there is the slightest improvement, Trump will announce that everything is fine, and in two weeks the virus will disappear like a miracle and we’ll have close to zero infections.
And then the whole fucking nightmare will start all over again.
Coronavirus, if you’re listening, if you infect Trump you will be rewarded mightily.
Martin
@Fair Economist: CA has a few things working in our favor – we have more public infrastructure per capita than other states. We had a governor that thought like Cole. Jerry Brown was always waiting for that next disaster to strike, and he put money away, gave us stockpiles of supplies, and so on. And relatively speaking, I think Californians have a decent bit of trust in government. Jerry was a bit of a weird character, but he was a very competent administrator. Gavin seems very much like Jerry in that regard.
hells littlest angel
I felt pretty good about buying a 25 pound bag of rice before the price skyrocketed. Now I’m wondering if 25 pounds was enough.
J R in WV
@Ang:
No offense, but as a life long bean boiler, dry kidney beans are like little rocks after 30 minutes of boiling… so no one is likely to try to serve kidney beans after only 10-30 minutes. Unless you use a pressure cooker, which gets much hotter than the boiling temp of water from the higher pressure.
Navy beans and garbanzo beans take the longest, start them today to eat tomorrow. Pintos and cranberry beans take less time, and split peas and lentils more like 30-45 minutes, so least of all.
ETA: I agree with Cole, we should expect things to be at a near standstill for much longer than 2 or 3 weeks. I just hope the supply chain of foodstuffs holds up somehow !! My favorite dog food (iams) is imported from Malaysia, that’s a long supply chain !!!
James E Powell
I’m seeing #whereisjoe? trending on my twitter. Is Biden on lockdown or am I just not seeing/hearing what he is doing?
different-church-lady
When did they pass that law that said everyone had to share everything they think?
Served
Governor Pritzker in Illinois has been doing a great job so far, keeping pace with NY and CA. Strong communication and consistent, clear guidelines.
The only critique I would have is that he and the mayor of Chicago knew people would be flooding bars last Saturday and did nothing to stop or slow it, waiting until Sunday to fume at the irresponsibility of it all.
catclub
I continue to be astonished that China is basically reporting the epidemic is over. That seems like less than three months, and more like two
(say jan 20 to mar 20).
OTOH I think they still have lots of restrictions in place. I am also worried about second waves of infection after relaxtaion, unless there is vaccine and treatment.
Ksmiami
@CaseyL My prediction that the institutional failures that allowed Trumps election will result in the destruction of the USA as we know it after this pandemic abates. This is me being optimistic btw,
Taken4Granite
Got word today that a major conference in my field, which normally takes place in June, has been cancelled this year. I was not at all surprised at the cancellation. It’s a physics-adjacent field, so the committee planning the conference can do math and see that having things back to normal within three months would be, to put it mildly, optimistic.
My town has had its first small business casualty: the local gym has announced that they will not reopen.
Jay
Brachiator
@Martin:
Jerry had pretty much outgrown the Gov Moonbeam stereotype of his early first act as governor. And you are right that Newsom seems more grounded than some believed he might be, based on his earlier political career.
It is also interesting to note that Brown and Newsom both had to fight off fellow Democrats who wanted to spend the shit out of rainy day funds.
A rough vindication, but a vindication nonetheless.
Benw
NY state non-essential business shutdown goes into effect on Sunday. Not sure what the $ plan is, but it’s going to put millions of people out of work overnight. Still a good call by Cuomo: there’s no other sane plan. We have got to get people to isolate and stay that way. Agreed with John that we’re looking at a time scale of many months before anything goes back to semi-normal.
Fair Economist
@Martin: I had been relatively optimistic since most of the country (not all) has taken substantial actions for distancing. The ongoing rise in Italian cases is concerning me. Italy was restricting large public events back in late February and started lockdown 11 days ago (12 in Lombardy). It should be slowing by now.
The measures have helped some, but seemingly not enough. I hope testing is not *essential* to control (all the Asian countries with reasonably successful control have had lots of testing) because if so we are probably f*****.
catclub
The Facebook laws.
Another thing that Douglas Adams observed. On The planet where everyone was telepathic, everyone does mindless things to avoid reading their neighbors’ minds – talking constantly?
Of Douglas Adams — Dont’ Panic in large friendly letters
different-church-lady
@cain:
joel hanes
@PenAndKey:
an extra two weeks
One step at a time. For reasons of politics and panic and balky people who cannot see what’s in front of their face, like the President, we have to get to the destination stepwise.
As the crisis deepens, more interventions will come.
L85NJGT
Somebody once told me to lather your hands with soap as long as it takes to get thru the ABC song in your head.
Ksmiami
@cain: paraphrasing from The Big Lebowski, “That’s right man, Don’t you fuck with the Covid…”
catclub
The zombie kind of Easter resurrection.
raven
So we have a shelter in place order through April 7. It’s day four and our usual Friday night dinner group wants to grab the pickup at White Tiger, maintain the intervals and eat at the picnic tables. I remember when I thought I was a radical and a math prof from Palestine wagged his finger at me and said “You are very conservative. . .” One of our friends was recently widowed and is really at sea and folks juts want some kind of contact. I’m not happy about the whole deal (except trying to support the Tiger) but I guess I’ll go since it’s about 30 yards away.
hells littlest angel
@different-church-lady: You have to admit the calming effect of boldface and all caps.
Fair Economist
@Martin: Did you catch the little dig Newsom made at Trump last night? He thanked him for the release of a few hundred thousand masks and then mentioned the state had over 10 *million* in its stockpiles. (Although that would still not be nearly enough for a major outbreak).
different-church-lady
Kinda blows my mind that everyone here knows EXACTLY what we need to do. I mean, what are the odds of that?
raven
@J R in WV: Instant pot to the rescue!
L85NJGT
@James E Powell:
The usual Russian line of bullshit. They’re stirring up virus garbage in European social media as well.
Points at scoreboard:
WTI Crude
23.29
different-church-lady
@hells littlest angel: I’M AN EXPERT, IN FACT!
Brachiator
@Ksmiami:
Trump was working on the destruction of the USA as we know it, so who knows, things might get better.
Fair Economist
@L85NJGT:
Russian cost of oil production: about $19 per barrel. Could get interesting for them quite soon.
different-church-lady
I see my admonitions to resist gloom porn have gone unheeded….
Gin & Tonic
@James E Powell: Lefty Twitter is complaining that Biden is not visibly acting “Presidential.”
Elizabelle
@L85NJGT: The ABC song twice.
We are really gonna need some more interesting ways to pass — what — 20 seconds??
Subsole
@CaseyL:
The chieftains of the red tribes know that the cities and people of the blue tribes are where all the money gets made. No way in hell they let those blue states go.
John Cornyn doesn’t wanna be senator of a Texas without DFW, Houston, etc.
Because Cornyn doesn’t wanna be senator of a cow pasture.
Timurid
I have supplies for about six weeks and I’m not sure what’s a bigger risk… going to a packed store now for more stuff or going out in whatever conditions exist a month plus from now. (The first confirmed cases in my city were two days ago.)
LuciaMia
Yeah well, shopping becoming a problem for folks like me. I use a wheelchair and really depend on grocery home delivery. Just checked my usual store and their delivery service (Peapod) and every single time slot is sold out for the next two weeks. (Wonder how much some of those slots are really needed if people are reserving in a panic. ) If that is how its gonna continue, it can get pretty dicey. Other stores and Amazon fresh in pretty much the same boat.
catclub
was it for Roosevelt in 33 that they shortened the time until inauguration from march to january?
different-church-lady
@Elizabelle: I’M NOT HUMMING THAT GODDAMNED SONG FOR SEVEN MINUTES!!!
moops
@ant:
It won’t be over in May, but I think the Trump WH is shooting for the outbreak to peak in May with a huge number of infected and dead, then seeing the curve level off and start getting better in time for Trump to campaign on finally winning the war on COVID-19 and better to stick with his awesomeness to take us through the next years.
terry chay
One thing important to understand about the limited “shelter-in-place” and similar orders.
This disease spreads every 5-7 days. Because of that any impact of a policy on new infections is going to lag 1 week if there fast testing is in place. Ours is slow, takes 3 days instead of 3 hours and is limited: we have tens of thousands of tests while a Singapore or South Korea rate would have run tens of millions of tests by now.
This means we are flying blind and the best indicator we have right now is deaths which is a three week lagging indicator as well as a function on the prepardness of a area (death toll varies as much as 10x)
But testing will ramp up and testing speeds will improve. In the coming weeks, like what happenned, our case numbers will match actual numbers of cases. You are actually seeing it now: numbers in the U.S. should be doubling every 3-6 days, but they are doubling every day: that fast rate because testing, not spread.
In areas that implemented shelter-in-place, three weeks is a long time. In three weeks, they’ll have widespread testing and they will no longer be flying blind. In three weeks, they’ll know the impact of their policies for sure just by comparing their results with other cities. In three weeks, we can decide what to do.
Singapore and Hong Kong have had a handle on things and never closed their K-12 schools. South Korea has an almost “business-as-normal” because they act so aggressively to contain it when a new outbreak occurs. China has stopped seeing any new domestic cases of the disease: 100% of their cases come from foreign travel.
While the disease will not go away in 2-3 weeks, policies can change to better combat it.
Right now, we can’t see crap, but we will see the impact of differences in state/local responses in the next 2 weeks. These areas will become miniature laboratories of response: an epidemologists dream of data/scenarios and a nightmare for many real people being “experimented” on with these delayed responses and half-measures.
JMG
There’s a limit to how long shelter in place can go not only because people will just rebel, especially as it gets nicer outside, but also without total economic collapse as supply chain workers say “why should I risk my life for the shut-ins?”
different-church-lady
@terry chay: Christ almighty, I just voted for you for president.
Mary G
They’re mostly closing the US-Mexico border. That’ll cause some disruption for people I know who go to Tijuana to get insulin and other drugs.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@E.:
Wow, I knew there would be violations, just now on my walk I saw a group of about seven younglings bouncing off each other on the path, but Im surprised it’s that blatant
different-church-lady
@JMG: Last week I was joking “March 2020: the last time human beings had physical contact”, and now everyone is taking it seriously.
Fuckin’ christ, people…
WereBear
@terry chay:
I’ve been saying this disparate governor response will certainly give us that Laboratory of the States.
L85NJGT
@Fair Economist:
Meanwhile back on planet reality, they’re throwing up field hospitals ASAP.
Mary G
TupeloPhoney
We are going to wish we could have had a scenario as good as even Italy. Italy is a relatively small country where people began to comply with lockdowns *and there is testing.*
The vast majority of the U.S. is still business as usual, and still minimal testing is taking place. Lockdowns aren’t particularly effective without testing, although there is some minimal curve-flattening in locked-downed areas. This is at the cost of people’s livelihoods however, and no help from any level of government on that so far. You can’t expect people to sit home and happily starve for the good of the community when (1) there is no end in sight and (2) the steps necessary for the sacrifice to be meaningful haven’t been taken.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Going by Spanish Flue; two years as it spreads from region to region, locally three months.
gene108
You are not wrong, John. The totally uneven responses from state to state will mean this will continue for much, much longer, than the best case scenarios estimate.
Maybe the saving grace for this country is outside of the coastal states, much of the country is very sparsely populated, and get few visitors, so hopefully we have a natural built in sort of social-distancing built in that will limit the spread.
Suzanne
@Fair Economist: I think we have to know if staying in place is going to be effective in very short order. I share the concern that people will just stop complying at some point, and if it can’t be demonstrated that it’s effective, that point will arrive sooner.
catclub
so…. China? They are reporting infections in the tens. Soeverybody has NOT gotten it.
Subsole
@Unknown known:
Not just grandpas. Grandkids, too. And everyone in between.
There better be goddam trials over this. I mean actual, throw-your-ass-in-ADX Florence-and-forget-you-ever-existed trials.
Mary G
He says Trump trademark “bullshit” attack! Moar, please.
ant
we are not china.
they are handling this a great deal better than we are.
You think we are all going to wear face masks?
L85NJGT
@Elizabelle:
Well, I suppose the broader point is you need to lather up, not just squirt some soap on your hands and rinse.
catclub
Trump must have had a news conference to reassure the nation and instill confidence. Markets are back down 4-5%
Subsole
@cain: Hope it brought v*agra and an ice pack and an extra box of batteries, then.
different-church-lady
You know, it’s remarkable to think that the only one who will come out of this a changed person is Tucker Carlson.
SiubhanDuinne
@gvg:
I expect he probably is doing exactly that. Not sure, though, that the process needs to be public, at least not yet. He’ll make his choices and announcements over a period of months. I’m comfortable with that.
Fair Economist
@gene108:
In Iran it spread along roadsides and people here just *love* to drive interstates, especially if air travel is out. M^4 posted a map from an online temp measurement company that looks like the epidemic I knew was going on in Metro Atlanta is aggressively spreading all over the nearby Southeast – Chattanooga, Birmingham, Albany, Columbia SC. Not yet verified that the map is actually meaningful, but it’s plausible.
different-church-lady
Well, y’all have finally convinced me that if anyone anywhere in the country leaves their house in the next six months we’re all gonna die. Thanks, I’ve finally seen the light.
Jim Parish
@catclub: That amendment was ratified early in ’33, but didn’t take effect until ’37.
terry chay
@different-church-lady: The fascist/populist governments have had the worst response to the virus and because of it they’ve all been punished mightily. Compare Italy and U.K. to Germany, Iran to all their neighbors, the U.S. to Canada.
In a month, when they have a total breakdown of their lies, look at India and Russia and Brazil.
People will be too busy surviving and dying in these states to take up fake nationalistic, anti-immigrant rhetoric to rile the population up to a war footing. Even in the U.S. we’ve apparently toned down our response to Iran because of the optics.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Everything I’ve read from Italy says the Italians refused to comply because giving up their socializing is to much of sacrifice.
Also talking to friends on the internet over the world;
* A plane load of Italians tried escaping the quarnite by flying to Martinique Island and were offended when the local government promptly threw them into isolation.
* South Africa is now facing a virus crises because an Italian prostitute with the virus escaped isolation .
* According the BBC the Italian police has taken to stopping and demand anyone outside justify being out of their homes.
And this is with 400+ Italians dying a day from this.
The first case of this virus in California was Jan 1st, so far 20 deaths, Italy first case was 21st of Feb, so far over 4,000 deaths. Something is going horribly wrong in Italy because California is linked directly to China with it’s large Chines immigrant population and the Tech industies Offshoring to Chines factories. California should be the disaster zone, not Italy.
The Dangerman
Anybody who says they have an idea where this will be in (pick the timeframe: week, month, year) is either trying to sell you something, high as fuck, or an idiot (or, if you are Trump, the Trifecta: I think they have him on all sorts of shit). Buckle up, hope for the best, prep for the worst.
Subsole
@different-church-lady:
Not standing under the baby grand as it comes plummeting down at you is a pretty small cognitive hop.
Or am I completely missing what you are saying? I mean, what is controversial about the need for more testing, baseline data, more (and more urgent) measures?
@Gin & Tonic: Lefty twitter would bitch if you shot them with a golden bullet.
Ohio Mom
It won’t be as dramatic but I predict another eventual illness and mortality bump that will be the result of all the routine preventive care and medical condition monitoring that is being postponed. Obviously this can’t be helped.
Why yes, I am a little perturbed that my annual exam just got moved from April to December (!). I knew the April date was going to be cancelled but no openings until December?
catclub
Good article at Slate – but depressing, natch.
moops
@different-church-lady: I don’t think just Tucker Carlson will come out changed. Lots of people with be changed from alive to dead. One of them likely to die is the President, also his opponent. They have had too much exposure and are tired. None of us want President Pence, but it is likely what is going to happen.
different-church-lady
@The Dangerman: I’m about to pie everyone but you and Terry Chay.
Yutsano
OT: Bloomie is at least (partially) living up to his promise.
West of the Rockies
@terry chay:
You offer hope–realistic hope–something we need.
Jeffro
John, it’s really more like quarter-assed measures at this point from trumpov and Co. (Well, except for those GOP senators who were dumping stock knowing full well what was coming – THAT, they did half-assed).
We are going to run these jerkwads out on a rail in November!
Kathleen
@Brachiator: Rethuglicans openly started the downward spiral in the 90’s, though Reagan kicked it off preceded by Rethugs’ Southern Strategy which was the opening shot. They’ve been at it for 50 + years.
Kattails
My best buddy called this morning, he was headed to town for stuff, did I need anything? Yes please half and half, yogurt (have frozen cherries and peaches), cat food. He dropped off a bag at the front door. There was a bottle of Grand Marnier as a bonus.
I should be fine for about 2 weeks. I understand that this will go on longer, but my first concern is that I’ve been working out in the public and I want that time to be sure I’m “clean”, also to just give my body and brain a rest. After that I would feel OK doing basic shopping. I told my work that I felt I’d need at least two weeks, perhaps 3 or 4 before returning to work. For me the biggest issue is the damned testing, I’m furious that we are so far behind on this, that it’s clear to a lot of us that we truly have no handle on the numbers and that Trump is a lying sack of excrement who should have been frog-marched out the minute he was impeached.
My Rep. Annie Kuster did a phone town hall at noon to fill everyone in on available resources, take questions, she had other experts on as well. They are working to help cover small businesses with loans, deferments and so on. The loans will carry interest but first payments won’t be for 4 months, and they do not necessarily have to distribute all the money a business requests at one time; so interest would only be on what was distributed, not the total amount, which sounds sensible.
Elizabelle
Cacti
I’m with you on this. People don’t have an unlimited capacity for indefinite, voluntary self-imprisonment. Especially those who have lost their income and means of support. Unless something is done to address the problems you raise, and done quickly, things could take an ugly turn very quickly.
Elizabelle
@catclub: Your link does not work. (The Slate article.)
terry chay
@different-church-lady: :) The country will look like a different place in three weeks. Because failure is 10x worse than success in mortality, and because the spread is exponential (2.2 to 2.4/5-7 days), the consequences of failure to act (Italy, Wuhan, Iran) look very , very different than success (Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, rest of China).
Because of lack of leadership and deliberate stymieing of the response that occured at the Federal level, the state and local level has had a variety of responses across a range from Italy to about Taiwan.
And we will see this in action. Possibly good for politics but bad for others :(
NotMax
@Elizabelle
Repeated from a few days ago, some other suggestions: 9 Broadway Songs That Last the 20 Seconds You Need to Wash Your Hands of Coronavirus – 13 More Songs That Last the 20 Seconds You Need to Wash Your Hands of Coronavirus. Site even includes a handy option to familiarize yourself with the tunes.
Personally lean to a sung or hummed full chorus of Me and My Shadow, which takes just about a minute (give or take 2 seconds either way), time enough to accomplish the washing, rinsing and drying.
CaseyL
Welp. I just ordered grocery delivery. I don’t need anything urgently, and thought it might be good to replenish before I did need anything urgently.
The online shopping experience was very easy, because I’ve been a rewards-card carrying shopper there since forever and they have all my stuff on file. It was actually quite nice, seeing my usual groceries scroll by and going “One of these, and two of those, and…”
The store advertises “delivery within an hour!” but you pay extra for that. I don’t need it that quickly, and went with ordinary scheduling. The slot I got was Sunday evening – and I had to finalize the checkout fast to keep it.
(Still no TP, by the way. Fortunately, I have enough for… maybe a week?)
SiubhanDuinne
@WereBear: I always thought Andrew Cuomo was a bit of a jackass, but I have to say I find myself really looking forward to his I-take-full-responsibility, no-bullshit pressers every day. He walks the talk.
cain
@Subsole:
I think it runs on stupidity, so no worries it will be here awhile.
Elizabelle
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I have wondered about that too. And how the first cases appeared in Washington State, and not California.
Or perhaps the actual word is fatalities. Maybe those early affected in California did not take desperately ill, or avoided the illness, for underlying reasons.
Subsole
@cain: Oh. So kinda like that perpetual motion machine I bought last week?
cain
@SiubhanDuinne:
It’s funny who are heroes end up being..
It just shows that some personalities lend themselves better in a crises.
Elizabelle
@NotMax: We are about 3 days from memorizing poems and soliloquies, no?
That one about the widening gyre probably bears learning.
Also the Gettysburg Address. Time it out in 20 second increments. Whole thing was only 2 minutes long.
cain
@Subsole:
Yes where motion is the status of bowels.. sure. :-)
Cacti
@Elizabelle: Washington had an early glut of fatalities because the first outbreak was in an assisted living facility.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: MSNBC playing Cuomo’s “Blame me” moment in direct opposition to trump’s “I don’t take responsibility at all”.
there’s gonna be a lot of that.
artem1s
@gene108:
Churches and universities will override the advantage sparsely populated areas have. It’s hardly like 1920s when a visitor from another state or even the next county over was a rarity. People now think nothing of driving 40-50 miles to commute to work everyday. One kid visiting home from university attends the local church service and then everyone in town has it. Population density will be a factor in how fast it spreads but it won’t keep it out.
sdhays
@different-church-lady: Well, it is his blog…
SiubhanDuinne
@low-tech cyclist:
Reposted just because I needed to see those words another time.
What the hell. Let’s play it again.
NotMax
@different-church-lady
Yeah, sometimes it becomes like listening to Gir on a loop.
;)
Fair Economist
Chinese Red Cross Observer says Italian “lockdown” inadequate:
Complaints: public transit still operating, social gatherings still happening, hotels still open.
West of the Rockies
@different-church-lady:
For what it’s worth, here’s what you might be hopeful about…
Some states are doing the right thing (California, New York). Others will follow. No, not everyone is complying, but more are. Proactive measures today DO make a difference tomorrow.
Testing is ramping up. That will mean an alarming seeming spike in cases, but it will frighten people to further isolate (and diminish the chain of transmission).
81% of people will recover and likely (if this virus is like its Corona cousins) have partial or full immunity. Some of those with more serious cases will recover. Yes, our hospitals will be overwhelmed and people will die who otherwise would not have. But many will recover. There’s no denying that a 6 or 7 digit death toll is a very real possibility. We will all lose someone we know. But this is not the USS Indianapolis scenario (1,100 men went into the water, 300 came out, sharks took the rest).
This, I believe WILL wake people up to our fragility, the fragility of the planet, and we will be better in our response to global warming.
That’s what I believe.
Mary G
@Elizabelle: I think we in California were randomly lucky that it didn’t get into a nursing home like it did in Kirkland WA. That’s where a huge majority of their initial cases came from. Or it did get into a nursing home here, but the deaths didn’t get associated with Covid19. Without testing we’ll never really know.
Another Scott
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/march-20-update-us-covid-19-tests-per.html
US testing is finally, finally, on an (approaching) exponential increase.
Raw data from here – https://covidtracking.com/
The NYMag interview with the infectious disease expert who was screaming about the disaster in China in December (in one of AL’s threads this AM) said a huge vaccine maker said that one might be 3 years away if everything goes well.
Testing is our only way forward. South Korea shows us that it works. We need to know who is infected so they can be isolated so that people who aren’t infected can work, etc. A vaccine isn’t going to save us anytime soon. Only dramatically increased testing will work.
Every first question at the daily briefing should be: Where’s the PPE? What’s the plan? What is being done to implement the plan?
Every second question at the daily briefing should be: Where’s the test kits? What’s the plan? What’s being done to implement the plan?
Etc.
Cheers,
Scott.
Lee Hartmann
I think you are very, very right. If only we had an organized federal government led by competent people.
terry chay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: In Italy’s defense (vs. California). Because the cases were linked in California, it took longer for community spread. That’s the main reason for New Yorks numbers skyrocketing while California’s growth seems linear (well, that and testing).
A better example is Washington State vs. Italy. In both cases, there was community spread for a month before the first deaths were linked to COVID-19 (in both cases, the first deaths weren’t linked but were backtracked later).
Even adjusting for population, Italy looks worse than Washington. The death toll in Italy is so high because it is a 3 week lagging indicator. But the fact that the curve hasn’t flattenned much there is disconcerting. It looks to be much worse than Wuhan.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
this picture features a FL state rep out having lunch to own the libs, worth clicking on just to see the first response to the goober who posted it (not the state rep)
Barbara
@Cacti: This has been my thought for a while now. If testing does not ramp up within the next few days I do not see how so-called lockdowns can continue. This is imposing virtually all of the cost on a wide range of people for whom the benefit is definitely intangible, probably speculative, and quite possibly minimal to nonexistent. I can definitely see someone saying that if you personally feel at risk, feel free to stay at home but don’t make me starve and lose my livelihood on your behalf.
I am not in a good place, and I consider myself one of life’s luckies, but in my imagination, this is what purgatory would be like, complete with having a narcissistic nincompoop like Trump in charge during the course of a pandemic.
Suzanne
@West of the Rockies: I have been trying to envision what positive changes are going to come out of this, too. Hopefully, people will take a more realistic look at preparedness. Hopefully, we’ll truly get to universal health care. Hopefully, our corporate masters will be less capitalist and exploitative.
Elizabelle
@Another Scott: Can we still GET the World Health Organization kits?
Can we manufacture their particular design?
FWIW, I think someone needs to have a serious conversation with Trump that the only way the stock market and economy have a chance of recovery is his resigning. Maybe they could even offer him money. Because they stand to lose a lot more once all the deaths start and bring the market down lower.
Pence is not up there for ego enhancement. That we know of
Nancy Pelosi, of course, would be the best. But a bridge too far for those who have been looting our country.
gvg
@LuciaMia: Look on your local NextDoor if you can. My area has people volunteering to pick up for others too when they venture out. I’d like them to show more caution but people really are trying and many know perfectly well this is going to hurt a lot of us.
SiubhanDuinne
@L85NJGT:
Pro tip: For variety, try “Twinkle, twinkle, little star” or, for an exotic alternative, “Baa, baa, black sheep, have you any wool?”
Suzanne
@Barbara:
I agree here. And for people who lose jobs, homes, possessions, etc. because everyone was in lockdown, I am sure they will want to be made whole, or at least more whole. And until I see a serious proposal for how to make those people whole, like full suspension of mortgage and rent payments, massive cash transfers so people can pay their bills and buy food, and so on…. I am not optimistic that we will avoid civil unrest.
opiejeanne
@different-church-lady: How about the Muppets’ version
https://youtu.be/G8TkfMmwVHI
gene108
@ant:
We can’t, even if we wanted to. We don’t have enough to go around.
I mean, fuck, the USA is the second largest manufacturing economy on the planet, behind China, (and we were #1 from 1945 until some point last decade), and accounts for 18% of global manufacturing output.
We have the ability to meet our shortfalls, but someone needs to tell our manufacturing companies what to do.
Just another failure from Trump.
NotMax
@gene108
Could have missed it amongst the hubbub – have neither seen nor heard anything about ending tariffs on PPE.
catclub
@Elizabelle: Probably too late to fix.
slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/trump-coronavirus-response-9-11. should find it.
title was
This Isn’t Trump’s Katrina. It’s Stupid, Slow-Motion 9/11.
catclub
it is bloody complicated, since mortgage servicers – and their employees, have to pay their bills, too. Or the person who rents out a fourplex – not all are faceless corporations.
SiubhanDuinne
@Elizabelle: Your wish is my command!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/well/we-wrote-you-a-hand-washing-song-listen-up.html?searchResultPosition=1
Jay
@JMG:
all “essential retail” here is desperately hiring.
the Boomers, the Unions, the Government and the Corporations made a “deal” back in the early ‘90’s. Existing part time and full time workers, ( and the ratio of part time to full time) would keep their wages, benefits, pensions, hours.
New “workers” would be in a second tier, schedule at will hours, minimum wage start, 1% RRSP matching sometimes, 4:1 ratio of part time to full time, minimal benefits, no pension.
As a result, from the warehouses to the night janitorial staff, one worker would be making $110,000 a year +, the other $27,012.
Now that Covid19 has hit:
– a swack load of “grandfathered” workers have said, screw this, I’m taking my pension.
– a swackload of immune compromised, elderly topping up their meagre pension income, part timers with accrued sickleave , ( plus the new 2 weeks added), have said, screw it, I’m either quitting or staying at home.
Right now, at over a dozen chain stores, you can walk in off the street and get a shit job, no questions asked.
Suzanne
@catclub: Yep, it’s complicated. Oh well. The U.K. is doing a three-month mortgage holiday due to this. Their government basically told the banks that that was what was going to happen. Trump isn’t even as competent as Johnson, FFS.
The alternative is unprecedented homelessness and noncompliance with shelter-in-place directives.
Mike S
Watching my governor speak last night reminded me again that I am lucky to live in what Republicans claim is dystopian california.
gwangung
@SiubhanDuinne:
Generally, I use either the Silver Age Green Lantern oath twice…
Or the classic opening to Star Trek, once.
Alternate as needed.
SiubhanDuinne
@cain: Grace under pressure :-)
Elizabelle
@SiubhanDuinne: Thank you. Those are a lot of words.
And you know YOU must write and send in a contribution.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@different-church-lady: Pie is new and improved with pupcake and duckcake!
NotMax
@SiubhanDuinne
First, immediate, off the top o’ the noggin draft (to the tune of Battle Hymn of the Republic).
Mine ears have heard the nonsense from the orange dotard’s lips
Lies undisguised, evasions and a string of floppy flips
It’s enough to send the Buddha into fierce conniption fits
This liar has to go
Jesus Christ, but he’s an asshole
Jesus Christ, but he’s an asshole
Jesus Christ, a giant asshole
This liar has to go
Elizabelle
OMG! WE have a duck in a scarf cupcake too!
Not gonna say who is pied, but seeing that duck ….. and it is wearing a red scarf!
Penelope/Pearl has gone viral.
Thank you, WaterGirl. (And Avalune??)
SiubhanDuinne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Such a perfect juxtaposition.
Elizabelle
@catclub: Thank you. I will search for it.
grumbles
For the record, John, I’m with you. Depending on how you want to look at it, ‘normal’ is probably at least 6-8 months away, or never. (Obviously, for people who lose someone, and more generally, this will change a lot of big-picture things.)
And that’s assuming Preznint Skidmark doesn’t get clever with his shiny new “war” powers as we approach November.
Side note: Can we finally cut the fucking “War on X” shit, now, for god’s sake?
Jay
So I went to SuperStore. ( Grocery Chain in the Great White North).
They were all out of toilet paper.
So I went to the Customer Service Desk to ask if they had any toilet paper.
The clerk looked at me in utter disgust and said very firmly “no”.
So I waddled back to the public restrooms with my pants around my ankles. Never doing that again.
NotMax
@Jay
Next time bring a borrowed copy of The Art of the Deal along to use.
;)
TupeloPhoney
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That’s good to hear, thanks. Wait, that came out wrong. Anyway…I had heard a fair amount of anecdotal non-professional reporting from Italy that made their compliance sound relatively good. Anyway, I hope we can avoid the worst. Best of health to you/yours
TupeloPhoney
@Jay: I literally LOLed, in that if you were in the same room with me you could have heard the involuntarily more-forceful-than-normal-respiration exhalation of air out of my nostrils. :^) Thanks! Have a nice weekend, not that there is such as thing as the “weekend” anymore
Another Scott
@Elizabelle: I’m not an MD and I don’t know the details. Fauci says that traditionally the US made its own tests and had them run through physicians, not via mass public testing.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/us-coronavirus-test/
The US lost a lot of time because of problems with the CDC/FDA tests and approval systems this time. Maybe that’s been worked through now. Dunno.
The Congress needs to figure out what happened, why, and do what is needed to prevent it from happening next time (and we know there is going to be a next time).
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@hells littlest angel:
Me too. And 12 pounds or so of dried beans… I’m thinking not nearly enough. And probably should go look for more sooner rather than later, I don’t think Trump-plague is rampant here yet.
Surely sooner is better than later~!!
SiubhanDuinne
@NotMax: That would definitely enhance the lathering! Thanks!
J R in WV
@Elizabelle:
Mississippi one. Mississippi two. Mississippi three. . . . etc… Mississippi twenty one — start to rinse now.
Can we not count to twenty slowly, one count a second? I’ve been able to do that since I was 5~!~ Singing Kindergarten songs for dawg’s sake… are we really that slow? No hope in that case.
Elizabelle
@J R in WV: I have been thinking of learning to count better in Spanish, and the names of the centuries, etc.
And I don’t know my higher numbers in French.
Auntie Beak
If you’re comfortable with going out, thrift shops are a great place to find mason jars. Boxes and boxes of them, for cheap.
Auntie Beak
@NotMax: Good point. If we can’t test, what, 10 million undocumented immigrants, that’s gonna leave a big damned hole in our numbers…
J R in WV
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Duck with the red scarf is wonderful!!! Pupcake is cute too, but not as cute as catcake.
JAFD
As I think I’ve mentioned before, one verse of The Notre Dame Victory March is about 25 seconds. Also the ‘Soldiers’ Chorus’ from Gounod’s Faust
My father slaughtered a kangeroo
Gave me the grizzly end to chew
Now wasn’t that a horrible thing to do
To give me to chew the grizzly end of a dead kangeroo
Our tomcat swallowed a load of bricks
We think he only did it for kicks
Now he is in such a terrible fix
He cannot get up, he cannot get up, for the size of his tum
We have to listen to Gounod’s Faust
In the new Met-tro-politan Hause
We’ve heard it many a time before
And we’ll hear it again and again and again and again
I’ll see myself out now…
Ilieitz
@Ang: you can’t cook dry beans without a pressure cooker or cooking them a long time. Unless you want to eat crunchy beans
Patrianakos
@James E Powell: He’s talking, he just Isn’t the President, so he ddoesn’t get automatic air time.
Ang
@Ilieitz: oh I realize dry beans are basically a pain to soak and cook. But there’s going to be a bunch of people trying them in slow cookers and for kidney beans that isn’t good enough.