Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

The revolution will be supervised.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Petty moves from a petty man.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

We still have time to mess this up!

Let there be snark.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

You are here: Home / Economics / Free Markets Solve Everything / Tha Carter

Tha Carter

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This post is in: 

Ending the lockdowns isn’t going to happen. Next week we will probably have 2 or 3 thousand people die in New York City, which is horrific, and we’ll also probably have a continue decrease or at least stabilization of deaths in Italy, which is great. Obviously, fight like hell to keep the lockdown going, because we are talking about millions of lives here. But I just don’t see how these fuckers are going to end it.

As much as I hate to heh indeed David Frum it’s hard to improve on this commentary on Trump’s higher (but still shitty) approval ratings:

If any of us is still alive in November, we can pick up a lot of seats.

Reader Interactions

119Comments

  1. 1.

    Brachiator

    Ending the lockdowns isn’t going to happen. Next week we will probably have 2 or 3 thousand people die in New York City, which is horrific, and we’ll also probably have a continue decrease or at least stabilization of deaths in Italy, which is great. Obviously, fight like hell to keep the lockdown going, because we are talking about millions of lives here.

    Spain is the next developing hot spot. And eyes are on the UK, which reacted late.

    Trump has got to be nervous, despite all his bluster.  More than ever before, he is out of his depth, and is depending on the wrong people, while disregarding the people he should be listening to.

  2. 2.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Brachiator:

    Trump has got to be nervous, despite all his bluster.  More than ever before, he is out of his depth, and is depending on the wrong people, while disregarding the people he should be listening to.

    He sounds like such a fool during his briefings. I’ll never understand what his cultists see in him. Yeah, yeah, it’s because he’s a racist, but there were smarter racists running in 2016 who probably wouldn’t have botched this pandemic as badly. It’s as if he never ever makes mistakes in their eyes. I’ve called Trump supporters sycophants to their “faces” directly and get crickets. Would it be so fucking hard to at least get some intellectual honestly, with these fucks?

  3. 3.

    Martin

    I’ll be pretty relieved if it’s 2K-3K, TBH. I’m expecting 15K by this time next week. Hoping todays numbers break trend for the better.

    But if that trend holds, that means that a sizable percentage of the city contracted it before the lockdown. All of the current fatalities roughly correspond to date of the first positive test in NYC. If things really are that bad there, it’ll be the lack of tests that was to blame.

  5. 5.

    dmsilev

    Next week we will probably have 2 or 3 thousand people die in New York City,

    I hate to say this, but that’s optimistic. Per https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/ , New York State is at nearly 100 deaths per day right now, and given the slope of the exponential it’s going to be at least a few hundred per day by the beginning of next week and getting worse fast.

  7. 7.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Martin:

    Any speculation on what it might have a been? Just the stress in general? He has to know if he loses this November, his life as he has known it is basically over

  8. 8.

    Other MJS

    @Martin: He’s letting Pence run the presser. I have to say, Pence can at least act somewhat “presidential” (although I have no idea whether he’s telling the truth). And he’s letting Birx and Fauci take questions.

  11. 11.

    Martin

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Closing his businesses? The realization that the only thing he cares about – the stock market – was a lost cause. All of the above?

    But he clearly can’t grasp what is about to happen, and has no idea what to do about it.

  13. 13.

    Other MJS

    I hope Frum is right — I’ve been apoplectic about Trump’s usual fucking things up, then dialing the upfuckery back at tad and taking a bow. If he could bow.

  15. 15.

    Feathers

    Fox News is in Manhattan. It will be interesting to see what happens when this all falls down around (and undoubtedly upon) them.

  16. 16.

    Brachiator

    @Martin:

    I’m telling you, something this weekend broke him. He can’t cope. He’s checked out

    And yet he won’t stay down.

    I wonder if he has had meetings where he demands that people save him, and make him look good, and the science and medicine guys look around and say to themselves, “WTF? Save you, but not the country?”

    I expect him to bounce back with something outrageously stupid.

  18. 18.

    Martin

    @Brachiator: More likely he asked for solutions, they offered up realistic ones, he said that wasn’t possible because it would hurt him in Nov, and then decided they were all out to get him.

  20. 20.

    White & Gold Purgatorian

    Today, for the first time ever I sent a message to our Republican governor. I asked her to please keep the current personal distancing policies in place, or even increase them, as her medical and public health experts advise. Specifically mentioned that the morgues in NYC and the ICUs in Atlanta are almost full — we don’t want to end up in either situation.

    It may not make an impression on her, but it may be that even some GOP governors are interested in whether the public has an appetite for shutting things down. So, it can’t hurt to contact your mayors and governors.

  23. 23.

    NotMax

    @Martin

    Leaked conversation from the Oval Office last weekend:

    Jared: “You want the good news or the bad news first, o great one?”

    Dolt 45: “Gimme the good news, Jar Jar.”

    Jared: “The Martians have not attacked.”

    Dolt 45: “What’s the bad news?”

    Jared: “Everything else.”

  24. 24.

    Martin

    More good news.

    Foreign ministers from the Group of 7 leading industrialized democracies sparred Wednesday over whether to call out China as the source of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Meeting by video conference because of the outbreak, the ministers agreed on the need for joint efforts to halt the spread of the virus, known as COVID-19. But U.S. and European diplomats said the ministers were unable to agree on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s call for COVID-19 to be identified by name as the “Wuhan virus.”

    As a result, just a day after G-7 finance ministers and central bankers issued a joint communique referring to “COVID-19,” the foreign ministers opted against releasing a group statement.

  25. 25.

    Feathers

    The Federalist twitter account has been locked and the post deleted over of the “Coronavirus Parties for Kids” thing. Link

    It’s about time. But Facebook is the worst. Companies need to start shutting down their Facebook presence until Facebook bans misleading COVID crap.

  26. 26.

    Jeffro

    @Brachiator: I expect him to bounce back with something outrageously stupid.

     

    Judging from the stuff already coming out from his campaign, Pompeo, etc, the ‘stupid’ will be more like ‘evil’, as in

    • “Chinese/Wuhan virus”
    • blaming the governors
    • blaming New York, hotbed of immigration, in particular
    • blaming Biden for siding with the Chinese
    • blaming the Democrats for slowing things down with the aid package

    He was on our side all along, that trumpov!  You betcha!  On the case, ready to act…but the governors are inept and clueless, the Chinese are out to get us, and Biden’s on their side, not yours, American voter!

    It’s all they have left.

  27. 27.

    trollhattan

    Something brought a smile on our walk today. Couple sharing a longboard, a very long longboard, were being towed down the street by their husky. #Coronatainment.

  30. 30.

    Brachiator

    Commenter trollhattan recently posted this little tidbit

    A new CBS/YouGov poll asked Democrats who they trust for information on the coronavirus pandemic. Their answers are instructive: the CDC 87%, your governor 75%, the media 72%, friends and family 72%, religious leaders 44%, President Trump 14%.

    Compare that to the answers of Republicans: President Trump 90%, the CDC 84%, friends and family 81%, religious leaders 71%, your governor 65%, the media 13%.

    So here is a little something for your Trump loving friends. Trump supporters trust the CDC.

    Why doesn’t Trump trust the CDC?

    Interview with Tom Frieden, former head of the CDC:

    Q. Does it concern you that the CDC seems to be largely on the sidelines of this crisis?

    A. This is the first outbreak in the last 75 years that CDC hasn’t been centrally involved in making decisions at the table. Not that it’s the only group that makes decisions, but it’s got unique expertise in communicating those decisions. And frankly, I feel less safe because of that.

    Q. Why it is so important to have CDC at the table?

    A. CDC has the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD). There are 700 professionals working there. They’ve worked, on average, for 20 years on respiratory viral infections. They’re really good. Look, I’m an infectious disease specialist who’s worked on lung infections, and I wouldn’t trust myself to make these decisions. I would trust them to bring the best decisions out. … The public health experts are the folks at CDC, and not having them there is just not safe.

    Do Trump supporters even know that Young Jared and Mother’s Little Helper Mike Pence have more input and influence than the CDC?

  31. 31.

    Martin

    BTW, the timeline on Chinas response is that the first observation that this was more than just pneumonia was on Dec 26 when multiple family members all showed up with the same symptoms. It was reported to the CDC equivalent on Dec 27. They found 3 more cases on the 28/29th. They started active case finding on the 30th, and notified the WHO on Dec 31. They had it sequenced by Jan 12 and had test kits on the 13th.

    So, 4 days from detection to telling the WHO is pretty damn fast. Having tests going out 13 days after that is also pretty damn fast.

  35. 35.

    japa21

    @Martin: The argument I have heard is that it is not unusual for  a virus to be named after where it started and the example that is always brought up is the Spanish Flu.  The fact that it didn’t start in Spain and may well have started in Kansas is irrelevant.

  40. 40.

    Chyron HR

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Any speculation on what it might have a been? Just the stress in general? He has to know if he loses this November, his life as he has known it is basically over

    Possibly it sunk in that he’s going to be responsible for the impending deaths of millions of people?

    By which I mean that he’s going to be HELD responsible for the impending deaths of millions of people, not that he actually cares about them.

  41. 41.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    there were smarter racists running in 2016

    That Trump is stupid, incompetent, rambling, ranting, utterly self-centered, spiteful, incapable of kindness, and an all around asshole is the point.  Republican voters want that.  Trump was picked to prove that not just a white man, but the voters who saw themselves in Trump, were better than the best black man.  He is their revenge not just for Obama’s election, but for being shamed all their life for those traits.

    @Brachiator:

    Trump supporters trust the CDC.

    Why doesn’t Trump trust the CDC?

    Easy.  They think the CDC agrees with him.  If you tell them the CDC does not, you are the one lying.  If the CDC puts up a video, it’s the media lying.  One of the many things conservatives deeply resent is that they’re wrong about everything, so they decide the real experts must agree with them and LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU.

  42. 42.

    JMG

    Trump has threatened lawsuits his whole life. This one has no chance. The lawyers on the campaign are just doing it to keep his doom-rage-self-pity cycle from getting worse.

  45. 45.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Cheryl Rofer: have you heard about the political ad that the trump campaign went to court to block? I wonder what they don’t want people to see?

  46. 46.

    pattonbt

    its useless to bother with trump. Trump is about trump and adulation of trump. Anything counter to that in his mind is treason. He will never learn. He will never change. He will only ever do the right thing if his interests are aligned with it. There’s nothing really else there.

    its of course right and required to call him out vociferously at all times, but it will make no difference. He may poll ok now. And November will be closer than it should be, but the cake is pretty much baked and the lines are drawn hard.

    there are only two ways to get to trump. Take his money (and I hope all his businesses fail, of course the workers will get screwed so catch22) and take his platform (the adulation). Nothing else is of consequence for him.

  47. 47.

    Archon

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    You can make an argument that the last President to have to deal with a bigger emergency then this was Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis. This is a world historical crisis for a guy who ran for President just to get some exposure and some hotels built.

    The soul crushing amount of pressure right now even for a President that was equipped to handle it would be overwhelming. For Trump? Forget it.

  49. 49.

    pattonbt

    And further, trump doesn’t care if people die. No one person matters except trump. Even his own family.

    And he’ll always be able to internally rationalise any abhorrent action (inaction) he takes. There will never be a moment of reckoning or self awareness.

  52. 52.

    Roger Moore

    @Brachiator:

    Trump has got to be nervous, despite all his bluster.

    “Despite” is not the way I’d describe it.  I would say the bluster is a tell.  The more he blusters, the more nervous he is.

  53. 53.

    LAO

    People have died in the ER while waiting for a bed. There aren't enough ventilators. This entire hospital will soon be dedicated to the coronavirus.New York City hospitals are at the center of the pandemic in the U.S. “It’s apocalyptic," one doctor said. https://t.co/f6kJU33yI7— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 25, 2020

    It’s been a bad day in NYC

  56. 56.

    chris

    @Martin: A side note. Canada was notified on JAN7 and the federal government mobilised the pandemic response crew on JAN15. I’m guessing most other civilised countries did the same.

  59. 59.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Probably the latest stage in Trump’s narcissistic injury. When narcs are put in a position where they’re not in control of a situation, and it makes them look incompetent and pathetic, it’s quite literally a fate worse than death for them.

    We’ve seen him to try act like he’s in control, declare victory, lash out. When none of those work, narcs will often buckle and hide (at least for a while until they recharge). Trump can’t actually hole up in his room, but can check out while he’s theoretically presidenting.

    The Hoarse Whisper has a good analysis. (FWIW, all five of the behaviors HT predicted came true within two days of his post.)

  61. 61.

    LesGS

    @Sister Golden Bear: Yeah, back in the Fall as fire season picked up, we ordered a pack of 20 n95 masks (we’re in San Diego), half of which we gave to our 2 daughters who live in another part of the city. I’m glad we have them, though I have not felt the need to wear one yet.

  62. 62.

    Brachiator

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    If you tell them the CDC does not, you are the one lying. If the CDC puts up a video, it’s the media lying. One of the many things conservatives deeply resent is that they’re wrong about everything, so they decide the real experts must agree with them and LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU.

    You can also see this in the UK conservative response to BREXIT and subsequent fallout.

    The Tory leadership said “you can’t trust experts who tell you that BREXIT is bad”

    So the conservative base started echoing “You can’t trust the experts” whenever confronted with challenges.

    And now, this is biting them on the ass as Boris Johnson says “we must listen to the experts about this virus.”

    Their base is confused, going “wha… wha…?”

  64. 64.

    Melusine

    Republican senators are objecting to the relief bill because it provides the uemployed with an extra $600 on top of their salary. A lot of the people fired make minimum wage and/or rely on tips. The increase only lasts 4 months, there’s no guarantee they’ll all get hired back, and we have no idea how long this shitstorm will last and how long benefits may be held up/decreased if they have to extend them. Millionaires haggling over whether to toss working folks a few extra bucks to see them through a fucking pandemic and recession.

    Guillotines are too quick for them.

    And fuck all the Bernie Bros who care so damn much about the working class that they put us in this position.

  65. 65.

    PsiFighter37

    @Brachiator: The difference is that BoJo isn’t a complete idiot, but rather that the Tories are extremely venal liars. The UK is so fucked, though – Labour is a complete mess, and the far left (via Corbyn) has made it almost a rump party. Their new law that prohibits elections unless 2/3 of Parliament votes for one virtually ensures you will have a generation of full-on Tory control. I highly doubt Keir Starmer or anyone else who ends up leading Labour will win because of how factionalized the left is (and the stupidly idiotic small issues they fight over, missing the bigger picture).

  66. 66.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @LesGS: I’ve only got two N95s myself — during the fires I realized that I really needed an P100 mask instead. Which is overkill for now. I’m trying to find the cloth mask I bought before going to Japan last year. (Given mask-wearing etiquette there, and knowing that I wouldn’t find something to fit my Cole-sized noggin, it make sense to bring one along just in case.)

  68. 68.

    mad citizen

    @pattonbt: This is an excellent summation, I agree with all of it.  Someone here mentioned how offing oneself is a valid outcome for the narcissist, because they can’t live with being “revealed as a fraud, etc.”.  For this reason, I think he’ll resign at some point where he can claim victory and go to Florida.

  69. 69.

    catclub

    @japa21: The argument I have heard is that it is not unusual for a virus to be named after where it started and the example that is always brought up is the Spanish Flu.

     

    That was the old way. H1N1 was specifically NOT called swine flu.

    MERS was changed from Saudi Arabia.

    Spanish Flu was probably politically motivated as well, since kansas would be more accurate.

  70. 70.

    Brachiator

    @catclub:

    Why did they call it The Spanish Flu. From the Wiki

    By 11 March 1918, the virus had reached Queens, New York. … The Allies of World War I came to call it the Spanish flu, primarily because the pandemic received greater press attention after it moved from France to Spain in November 1918. Spain was not involved in the war and had not imposed wartime censorship.

    Spain was the only place that did not lie about the killer pandemic.

  71. 71.

    mad citizen

    Long good summation of the U.S. situation from the BBC guy in NYC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52012049.  I noted this: “Consequently, America’s claim to global pre-eminence looks less convincing by the day. While in previous crises, the world’s most powerful superpower might have mobilised a global response, nobody expects that of the United States anymore.”

    sad.

  72. 72.

    Martin

    So, today’s data is in. I’m up to 4 models.

    • Italy: daily fatality growth is still mostly stalled out around 700 deaths per day. They may not see a real downturn for a while yet. I think we’re seeing the effects of the smaller quarantine from late Feb, not the national lockdown on March 8. I don’t expect to see those effects until Sunday. But new cases is down, pretty much right when I expected it. If Italy data confirms China’s then it should help us understand how things in the US will go.
    • US: still on pace with my model. Expected 934 fatalities, came in at 942. Understand, this is about 240 fatalities today. We’re still growing about 10x every 10 days. So by Trump’s Easter reopen date, we might be looking at around 100,000 fatalities (and climbing) total just in the US. Thinking that’s going to be a pretty tough sell.
    • CA: still on pace with my model. CA’s rate of fatalities is very slightly higher than the nation. Some evidence already showing up that very early actions taken in the state have helped – work from home in Bay Area, cancelling events, etc. Despite being one of the first states, the early action was key. 65 fatalities total suggests we may avoid completely swamping hospitals before our lockdowns take effect. We’re probably still going to see 5 figure fatalities when it’s all said and done, but I think CA will be something of a bright spot considering our population.
    • NY: Last night I suspected that NY might be the cause of a possible uptick in the national numbers, and it is. The growth rate in NY is dramatically higher than the nation overall and CA, and dramatically higher even than Italy. Where the nation is growing 10x every 10 days, and Italy was 10x every 8 days before they stalled out, NY is 10x every 5-6 days. They added 75 fatalities today, which is 10 more than CAs total since February. My NY model can’t hold – it suggests virtually the entire city is already infected, which simply isn’t possible, but it does imply that NYC missed their window to flatten the curve and will be completely overrun. They need outside help, and they need it right now. If I lived in NYC I would not leave the house for any reason other than to go to the ER. Now is the time to eat through your emergency supplies. Actually, last week was, but start now. Cuomo is underselling the urgency.
  73. 73.

    Elizabelle

    Gail Collins has outdone herself.  If we could not laugh at her Coronavirus quiz, we would have to cry.

    I hope this is free with the FTF NYTimes’ COVID coverage, cuz we all need some levity.  At Donald Trump’s expense.  Have at it.

  74. 74.

    Bostondreams

    @Betty, did you happen to see this trial balloon floated by our governor today? He’s likely to reopen schools pretty soon..

    “I think there is a question about whether the school closures have been effective. There’s really no evidence and we kind of worked with our Commissioner of Education. Singapore, I don’t think Singapore closed their schools. And there’s no difference in how the virus spread in either of the countries based on that. There’s just not a lot of data that supports it,” DeSantis said Wednesday morning. “So you need to look to say, ‘OK; if the schools are closed, then what stress does that put on the parents?”

  75. 75.

    Another Scott

    DeLong – Jubilee and Hunker Down:

    Dealing with Coronavirus: The Hunker Down and the Jubilee

    [Coronavirus image]

    The problem of dealing with the economic policy consequences of the current coronavirus public health emergency is best analyzed in two pieces: the Jubilee, and the Hunker Down.

    Bringing the Jubilee

    What is the Jubilee? It happens after we have managed to get the virus under control, so that normal public health measures of (1) testing a random panel sample periodically to understand where we are, (2) testing the symptomatic, (3) tracing and testing their contacts, and (4) hospitalizing patients with serious illnesses can manage the situation as best as it can be managed.

    Note: I say “managed” rather than eliminated. The extent of asymptomatic transmission means that this disease will not be eliminated. It will become endemic. The task is to delay until our virologists can work their miracles. The task is to delay so that the medical care system is not overwhelmed so that we can keep mortality from the disease at 1% rather than 5% or more.

    Once the virus is under control—by June 1, say—we will want every job that existed on February 1 and every business that was running on February 1 to resume. We will want no business to have received a “bankruptcy shut down“ from the market system. We will want no worker to have a received a “you are not wanted“ signal from the market economy.

    There is a side constraint on the Jubilee: whatever policies we adopt need to be crafted to minimize unjust enrichment. Perhaps the second biggest economic policy mistake committed by the Obama administration was that its policies to deal with the great recession were both inadequate out of the fear of being perceived to contribute to unjust enrichment, and yet somehow also managed to generate a huge amount of unjust enrichment for the financial sector.

    Hunkering Down

    Then there is the question of how to manage the Hunker Down. In the Hunker Down, social distancing needs to reach a level that reduces the caseload to what the medical system can currently handle, but should not be pushed far beyond that point. Beyond that point, the benefits of generating a situation in which our ICUs and emergency rooms have excess capacity are low and the costs are high. In the Hunker Down, as many people as possible need to be given financial incentives to move into new productive occupations that provide useful goods and services without disrupting social distance. And in the hunker down, everyone needs to receive the income flow they need to pay their bills.

    Managing the Hunker Down and bringing the Jubilee are two separate problems that need to be designed and implemented separately. We need to think about both. We need to keep worries about bringing the Jubilee from damaging our ability to undertake the Hunker Down. We need to keep implementing the Hunker Down from impairing our power to bring the Jubilee.

    Interesting. Good ideas. Translating them into policy will/would be an interesting challenge.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  76. 76.

    Melusine

    Oh, andapparently giving people a liveable income for a few months will keep them from finding new jobs. During a recession. And a pandemic. Knowing the benefits won’t last forever and they only have a few months’ grace before they’re fucked again. And that between all the associated costs with testing and treatment, getting the disease may mean being fucked anyway.

    If they were so worried about CORPORATIONS taking advantage and dumping employees on the dole, then they would attach a lot more strings to the windfalls they want pass out like tic tacs at a head cheese convention.

    But that’s not what it’s about. It’s about keeping workers as desperate as possible so millionaires and billionaires can hire them as cheaply as possible. ???

  77. 77.

    Elizabelle

    @Martin:

    Cuomo is underselling the urgency.

    I know.  He’s walking a fine line between trying to drum into the Criminally Negligent in Chief’s bloated head that NYS needs help, badly — step up the Defense Procurement Act and send us some goddamned ventilators — and not inciting despair in New Yorkers.

    I think Trump should be brought up on criminal negligence charges after this.  In addition to all the financial, money laundering and tax evasion charges NYS is working on.

    This was avoidable, in part.  Not the virus itself, but the utter lack of testing and preparation.  This is criminal.

  78. 78.

    Gravenstone

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
     

    I’ll never understand what his cultists see in him.

    Some of them might be developing buyer’s remorse. But they’re still in the bargaining stage of grief. A refrain I’m starting to see more frequently online is “I’d like to see you (or insert random politician) do better than Trump”. They know he’s fucking up, but are trying to convince themselves anyone else would too.

  79. 79.

    Another Scott

    CalculatedRiskBlog:

    WEDNESDAY, MARCH 25, 2020

    A 40-Day Plan to Start Recovery

    by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2020 11:31:00 AM

    Based on the experiences of other countries, it appears the number of cases per day (and deaths per day) will peak about 2 to 3 weeks after well observed shelter-in-place orders are issued (some areas are reporting less than 2 weeks – that would be great).

    In some areas of the United States, shelter-in-place orders were issued a week or more ago. In some states and communities, orders have still not been issued.

    Based on the experience in China, it appears the recovery can start in about 40 days after a national shelter-in-place – if certain rules are in place.

    So here is a suggested 40-day plan to start recovery:

    Today:

    1. The Federal Government should ask all states to order Shelter-in-place (except for essential workers and businesses). This starts the clock across the country.

    2. Use the Defense Production Act to increase supply of Personal Protection Equipment (PPE). We must protect our healthcare workers. This includes masks, gowns, face shields, and other protective equipment – and also medical equipment, primarily ventilators and ICU beds.

    3. Sign Disaster relief fiscal policy into law. This will help Americans impacted by this national disaster.

    4. Name a head of a national Test-and-Trace-and-Quarantine task force. Start putting in place the necessary manpower and tools to conduct test-and-trace when testing capacity (and sufficient PPE) allows for testing all contacts of anyone who has tested positive. We can’t do this surveillance testing today due to lack of testing capacity and insufficient PPE (the priority for PPE is our healthcare workers and first responders) – but we should be able to do test-and-trace a couple of weeks after the cases-per-day peak. We must be ready! We will need people in the field, and software to track contacts, and also software (and manpower) to call those in quarantine twice a day until they test negative twice.

    Every day:

    1. Remind people about shelter-in-place, hygiene, and minimizing contact with others.

    2. Ask people to keep a record of where they go, and the people they have contact with. This will be important once test-and-trace starts.

    After Cases-per-day peak:

    1. Continue to manufacture PPE, especially surgical masks – there will be another need for these masks.

    2. Start test-and-trace and quarantine program as soon as possible after cases-per-day peak. This will identify asymptomatic people that will need to self-quarantine.

    About 40 days from now (maybe sooner in some areas). Note: This will require an operational test-and-trace program, and sufficient masks for anyone who needs one.

    1. Start easing shelter-in-place rules.

    2. Require anyone in close contact with others to wear a mask (this is why surgical mask production must continue at high levels, even after the number of cases slows). People need to wear masks, not to protect themselves, but to protect other people. This will help slow the spread.

    3. Remind everyone daily about hygiene and minimizing contacts and staying home when sick (even as restrictions ease).

    4. Anyone with even mild symptoms should be tested. Wide spread testing – and following up with test-and-trace will keep the spread minimal.

    The crisis will not end completely until a vaccine and effective treatments are available, but the economic recovery could start in 40 days (or less time in some areas), if the Federal government takes action today.

    Makes sense.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  80. 80.

    Martin

    @Bostondreams: Singapore has really good patient tracking and tracing. So does South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. They developed these after the SARS outbreak.

    Does anyone notice something those nations have in common relative to Covid? Does Florida have a similar tracking and tracing capability?

  81. 81.

    Sloane Ranger

    @PsiFighter37:

     

    Their new law that prohibits elections unless 2/3 of Parliament votes for one

    Just to be clear, the new law says that elections will take place every 5 years unless 2/3 of Parliament vote to hold one earlier. The May local elections may have been cancelled due to Trumpvirus, but we are still a democracy.

    What you say about the atomisation of the left is true but if Johnson has mishandled things as badly as some people think, the bodies are going to pile up and people will remember in 4 years time. A moderate like Starmer has a chance.

  82. 82.

    cain

    @Martin:

    • NY: Last night I suspected that NY might be the cause of a possible uptick in the national numbers, and it is. The growth rate in NY is dramatically higher than the nation overall and CA, and dramatically higher even than Italy. Where the nation is growing 10x every 10 days, and Italy was 10x every 8 days before they stalled out, NY is 10x every 5-6 days. They added 75 fatalities today, which is 10 more than CAs total since February. My NY model can’t hold – it suggests virtually the entire city is already infected, which simply isn’t possible, but it does imply that NYC missed their window to flatten the curve and will be completely overrun. They need outside help, and they need it right now. If I lived in NYC I would not leave the house for any reason other than to go to the ER. Now is the time to eat through your emergency supplies. Actually, last week was, but start now. Cuomo is underselling the urgency.

    Jeezus christ!  It seems like all hands on deck there.

  83. 83.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Martin:

    Luckily my NYC children haven’t been in the city in some time. My daughter and SIL hightailed it for CT about a week and a half ago now, and my son and DIL left the country last fall, and won’t be back until this fall.

  84. 84.

    cain

    @Elizabelle:

    With Pompeo in his pocket, they will not do any investigations. He has to go. Then we burn him and we especially burn that ass kisser pompeo, he needs to be in jail, stat. He needs to be made an example of.

  85. 85.

    TS (the original)

    @Martin:

    But he clearly can’t grasp what is about to happen, and has no idea what to do about it.

    And still he won’t take advice from anyone sane as to what he should be doing.

  86. 86.

    Martin

    @Another Scott: 40 days is a bit quick, but the contours seem good. There still needs to be some societal level non-invasive monitoring program upon reopen. That seems to be why China hasn’t seen a resurgence but Hong Kong has.

  87. 87.

    cain

    @Martin:

    I think Trump will jump in to help Florida (he lives there after all) and so he would make sure that would be a priority .. not sure if it will work out though…

  89. 89.

    Martin

    @cain: It really should be.

    But I’ll add one positive note – I just saw NYC hospitalization data and that looks a bit better than my model suggests, so they may be seeing some improvements from actions taken a few weeks ago that hasn’t yet shown up in my data.

    I really hope my model is wrong.

  90. 90.

    Elizabelle

    @Brachiator:   Yea.  Yes, it is alarming to see how much we can figure out if it was a Trump action/statement or not, just by too much exposure.

  91. 91.

    LAO

    @Gin & Tonic: so, I’m still in NYC and the most stressful part of this has been dealing with my parents- I love them – but the 3x day calls to check on me are emotional draining.  I’m stuck here, I have to assume I’ve been exposed and can’t subject my elderly to the virus.

     

    ETA: I’m glad your kids left the city, I cannot adequately express how stressed out I am.

  93. 93.

    Martin

    @cain: I think it’s too late. Florida is already well past the point that China was when they locked down. They’ll be where Italy was when they locked down in 7-10 days.

  95. 95.

    japa21

    Maddow reporting that the governor of MS just overrode local shelter in place declarations.  Mississippians are going to die needlessly because of that.  Yes they may be a red state, but there are a lot of good folks there.

  96. 96.

    Brachiator

    @Gravenstone:

    Some of them might be developing buyer’s remorse. But they’re still in the bargaining stage of grief. A refrain I’m starting to see more frequently online is “I’d like to see you (or insert random politician) do better than Trump”.

    I listened to a local radio talk show host say, “Gee, Trump is right. The government can’t just take over corporations and tell them what to do. He has to respect the free enterprise system.”

    So, I immediately thought that if FDR had not mobilized America’s industrial strength and used it to produce everything from aircraft to munitions to jeeps, but let things alone, we would have lost World War II.

    And Ford or GM would have sold vehicles to the Germans.

    JFK did not take over industries, but certainly focused industry in putting in motion the processes that got on man to the moon.

    And I would certainly trust Biden, Obama, Hillary, Bill Clinton or Elizabeth Warren to do better than Trump.  Hell, I suspect that even Mitt Romney could do better than Trump. Yeah, I will throw the GOP a bone.

    And the governors of California and New York right now, today, this minute, are doing better than Trump.

  98. 98.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Brachiator:  I have read probably too much about the less well-known genocides of the 20th Century – the Holodomor in Ukraine and the Caucasus, and the Great Leap Forward in China, and it is really shocking how people blinded by an ideology can lead themselves to completely ignore massive suffering and death.

    Luckily the US isn’t anywhere close to those events.

  99. 99.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Another Scott:

     Perhaps the second biggest economic policy mistake committed by the Obama administration was that its policies to deal with the great recession were both inadequate out of the fear of being perceived to contribute to unjust enrichment, and yet somehow also managed to generate a huge amount of unjust enrichment for the financial sector.

    Yet another economist that is correct about the economics* but doesn’t understand the politics.

    *My academic training was in Economics.

  101. 101.

    Elizabelle

    Incidentally, Governor Northam of Virginia kind of slapped Falwell, Jr today, using biblical language to do it.

    WaPost:

    Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam sent a message Wednesday to Liberty University president Jerry Falwell Jr. about welcoming students back to campus: Don’t.

    Falwell had said students could come back to the campus in Lynchburg, Va., and that 1,000 to 2,000 were on campus this week. In keeping with the state ban on gatherings of more than 10 people, however, most classes would still be taught online.

    … “It is required that those who have been given a trust must prove faithful,” the governor said, quoting the Bible in his critique of leaders of the evangelical Christian university.

    “Proving faithful means providing clear and consistent guidance,” Northam said. “And it means respecting the duty that Liberty University has to its students, its staff, the Lynchburg community in which it is located and our commonwealth.”

    Northam suggested that Falwell look to the state’s “flagship universities [ie. real universities, with actual professional management] for how to set an example in this health crisis, and to please reconsider his message that invites and encourages students to return to campus.”

  102. 102.

    Kayla Rudbek

    And I just got an email from the city that there was an infected person at my husband’s favorite bar.  March 10, March 14, March 15.  Now I have to go check my texts to see if he or I or both were there at those days and times. And yes, he was there March 10th.

  106. 106.

    Fair Economist

    @Martin: How do you come up with the conclusion that most in NYC have the virus? My rough rule of thumb is that 1 death is a thousand current infections, which would put the city at hundreds of thousands infected. That is certainly horrifying but far short of 5 million or so after a complete sweep or even 2.5 million (half that) at uncontrolled epidemic peak.

  108. 108.

    Another Scott

    @Feathers:

    It turns out that "Dermatologist" published in The Federalist suggesting that people infect themselves with coronavirus isn't even licensed!

    The Federalist is a shoddy collection of total frauds. Who pays for that publication to exist?!?https://t.co/CvHpoaUOD2— Jared Holt (@jaredlholt) March 25, 2020

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  109. 109.

    Martin

    @Fair Economist: It takes roughly 3 weeks to go from infection to a fatality. So, assuming a 1% fatality rate, then NYC would have had around 25,000 total infections back around March 4 based on fatalities today. They recorded their first case March 2. It takes a good week or more to be detected with the current test.

  110. 110.

    Melusine

    @Another Scott: We need to keep worries about bringing the Jubilee from damaging our ability to undertake the Hunker Down. We need to keep implementing the Hunker Down from impairing our power to bring the Jubilee.

     

    Please tell me more about this new religion you’ve founded…

  111. 111.

    Kent

    @cain:I think Trump will jump in to help Florida (he lives there after all) and so he would make sure that would be a priority .. not sure if it will work out though…

    What is he going to do?  Roll up his sleeves and start treating patients?   If the system collapses it will be due to lack of hospital beds and medical personnel.  Where is he going to get those at a moment’s notice?  Is he going to conjure up supplies, personnel, and hospital space out of thin air?

  115. 115.

    Another Scott

    @Kent: He’ll stand behind a barricade and toss rolls of paper towels.  He’s got practice at that.

    :-(

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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