It’s too early to say for sure, but it looks like the curve is bending in New York. This is a screenshot from Cuomo’s press conference today.
Also, for the first time the state broke down the percentage of deaths by race/ethnicity. This is not good news, of course:
Total deaths hit another high today (779) but that’s a lagging indicator, because patients admitted to the hospital days ago are dying now.
What next? We stay locked down, of course.
Edit: I forgot to mention that New York is allowing everyone to vote absentee in the primary, which has been moved to June.
WereBear
We just got a cat food delivery. We’re good for a while.
terry chay
I was thinking that the reason state-wide (in NY, MI, IL) a lot of African-Americans were disproportionately effected was because the first places hit were cities.
The above table looks to me that after that the biggest indicator is income. After adjusting for those, I wonder what the racial component (the outlier in the above is NY state exc. NYC for Blacks)?
joel hanes
Here’s what I’m watching
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Second and fourth graphs.
Set for “new deaths/day”
Not seeing New York turning a corner yet.
New Jersey, Connecticut, Georgia, Louisiana looking scary.
I suspect serious reporting problems in the Florida numbers.
dmsilev
One caveat I would raise: Because hospital space is becoming so limited, the standards for ‘when should someone be hospitalized’ aren’t necessarily the same. In other words, what that graph could be showing is a harsher and harsher triage threshold.
I didn’t watch the press conference, so maybe that issue was already discussed. In any event, I hope I’m wrong and this truly is a bending-over of the curve.
MJS
Can’t say I’m a fan of these charts. They have too much of a stock market/approval ratings feel to them, and they provide a false sense of improvement. Things may be improving in NYC, or they may not be, due to the undercounting of those who are dying at home but not being tested. But just like this never was a NYC disease, it’s not an NYC recovery. Right now, the PA legislature is, unbelievably, preparing to introduce a bill to open businesses. The rest of the country is lagging NYC by a few weeks, at a minimum, but knucklehead Republicans will view this as further evidence of “light at the end of the tunnel.”
Shalimar
Speaking of locked down, Mike Huckabee and a group of his fellow rich assholes have sued Walton County, Florida to have local beach closures overturned. They say it restricts their access to the private beaches in front of their multi-million dollar homes, so they need the closure lifted for everyone. As if anyone from the sheriff’s office would ever go on their private property and tell them to get out of the water, closure or no closure.
WereBear
@terry chay: Also, minorities are often municipal workers because they have better job protections in many cases. So now, they are essential, and have more exposure.
Dorothy A. Winsor
We have to make a grocery run tomorrow for the first time in two weeks. We will wear masks and take other precautions, and go between 7 and 9 during the senior hours. When we did that 2 weeks ago, there was hardly anyone there.
Shalimar
@joel hanes: I am in northwest Florida, not the areas in the south with most of the offical cases, but there is virtually no testing here. No one has any clue how bad it is, but just reading message boards shows hundreds and hundreds of people home sick, far above the 70 or so offical count.
raven
@Shalimar: I was just reading the SOWAL forum about that and it seems there are many people of 30a not happy with that fat fuck.
Betty Cracker
I sure hope it’s bending. Y’all stay safe!
WaterGirl
@terry chay: There’s also access to health care, which surely increases pre-existing conditions. It’s all so wrong. I hope to god that instead of the usual, with COVID-19 that people of color are being taken seriously with their health concerns.
shorter: I would not attribute the difference to just income.
Pete Mack
28%:22% for black relative affected rate is actually very good when compared to elsewhere. The rest of NYS, alas, is much more representative of the nation as a whole.
The low Asian rate is also not surprising, as there’s more cultural awareness of how to deal with pandemic. SF Chronicle has had numerous articles on low rates in Chinatowns…and much greater and earlier adoption of masks. And no shortages either, as the masks were largely bought in January.
WaterGirl
@dmsilev: I had a similar thought. What if hospitals are filling up, and there aren’t beds?
This is better news, as opposed to terrible news, but I suspect it’s too early to be able to conclude much. But I would be happy to be told that I’m wrong about that.
Roger Moore
@terry chay:
One of the big worries is that it’s related to the environment. There’s evidence COVID-19 is more deadly to people who live in places with worse air pollution, and minorities are a lot more likely to live in the places with the worst pollution.
cmorenc
The perverse downside of the death rate dropping is that it’s going to increase pressure (and temptation) to ease up restrictions too soon, and cause a rebound (thus prolonging the crisis). Trump is already impatiently primed to do that, even without this potential development in the curve.
Jeffro
Let’s do the New Zealand thing and lock down until the virus has nowhere to go. Why not? Everyone’s basically on springy-summerish-break already anyway.
I am already seeing/hearing signs of ‘let’s get out of quarantine, we did it!’ here in central Va. Um, no, please don’t folks. We’ll know we’re winning if it looks like we are over-reacting, and right now it only barely looks like we are over-reacting.
Jeffro
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I went today (hopefully, stocking us up for two weeks) and there were about two dozen people in the whole store. I think all but two of the customers had masks on. I didn’t.
Interesting that the meat department continues to remain 90% empty of all products, period. I would have thought that at least America’s beef producers would be jumping at the chance to reclaim some market share. Oh well.
PS I made a quick stop at Target and was pleasantly surprised to see that they had plenty of jigsaw puzzles in stock. (There was an article in the NYT today about how those are made – fascinating!). I didn’t hoard, won’t be eBaying anything, just picked up 3 really big ones for the family to do across the next couple of weeks.
cain
@Jeffro:
Right now it is approaching 70F here in Portland – our governor has already reached out saying that stay in place is necessary. We’ll see how it goes because I think a lot of people want to get out with the weather being warm and sunny.
That’s why I’m going to be at home – sitting out side for sure though.
cain
@Jeffro:
So interestingly, I’m seeing a lot more people wearing masks now when shopping at hte grocery store, the beef and pork hardly make a dent but the chicken has high demand in my area.
We also have plenty of eggs and the like. Still no TP though.
Jeffro
@cain: Getting out is fine; getting out in groups or filling up trails and parks is not.
They closed the entirety of the Shenandoah National Forest, including all trails and Skyline Drive, today. I took my family on a big ol’ hike there last Sunday and was looking forward to more, but I guess we will wait…
germy
Linda Tripp, whose tapes of Monica Lewinsky led to Bill Clinton’s impeachment, dies at 70
Brachiator
I am in Southern California. The last I saw, it was recommended that no one go out this week and next, not even for shopping.
I have relatives in states that have not yet hit their peaks, according to the models.
WaterGirl
@Jeffro:
I don’t think it looks like we are overreacting at all.
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: I think that anyone who doesn’t stay in for AT LEAST 3 weeks after they get an all-clear in their area is very short-sighted.
Beautiful spring day …. good chance of becoming very ill, spreading the disease, maybe dying, possibly living with long-term effects even if you do recover.
Those two things are not difficult for me to weigh and come up with an immediate answer.
Stay the fuck at home. (Samuel L. Jackson voice)
CaseyL
@germy:
You know how they say, “Speak only good of the dead”?
OK: Linda Tripp is dead. Good.
FlyingToaster
Update from the People’s Republic:
Stop&Shop is still outta damn near everything; I made the trek over to Brighton (neighborhood of Boston closest to Watertown) to the giant S&S and while they do have packets of rapid Yeast, they do NOT have bulk Splenda.
StarMarket (pronounced StahMahkit) had a shelf full of Splenda bags, so I got 2, since WarriorGirl is going through Koolaid faster than I can keep it in the cabinet.
The Commonwealth is an hour late on delivering their Covid-19 numbers. These are supposed to be posted at Mass.gov’s site at 4:00pm. It’s 5pm, and there’s still no sign. I’m afraid the underreporting is catching up.
Baud
When can I start spitting on people again?
germy
@CaseyL: I honestly thought she was a lot older
WaterGirl
@Baud: Right after you can start picking your nose again.
Jeffro
@WaterGirl: Thank you. Please understand, I’m totally on the stay-at-home bandwagon here (other than groceries, meds, and physically distant exercise). Totally.
They could lift VA’s stay-at-home order tomorrow and I would still be doing this through June.
germy
@WaterGirl: You can pick your nose, but you can’t pick your family.
That’s what I tell folks who have Trump supporters for parents, aunts, uncles and cousins.
Elizabelle
@CaseyL: Yup. Dry-eyed and calm here.
Gravestone should read “here lies a snitch.”
WaterGirl
@germy: In high school, they used to say:
You can pick your friends and you can pick your nose, but you can’t pick your friend’s nose.
Feathers
@CaseyL: Here’s what Monica Lewinsky had to say:
https://twitter.com/MonicaLewinsky/status/1247943682088525825?s=20
She is becoming a role model for us all.
Shalimar
@raven: It’s horrible because they aren’t even accomplishing anything . They aren’t going to a beach with all the riffraff even if they win. This is just a way of saying they are our betters and we can’t tell them what to do.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Jeffro:
My brother has discovered (and used) a site that makes puzzles out of your photographs: Portrait Puzzles. Lots of options, quality is good.
Orders placed by midnight CDT tonight will be shipped on Friday.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Right. I was supposed to stop doing that.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Jeffro: They closed Joshua Tree out here.
Mandalay
@joel hanes:
MM rightly says “it’s too early to say for sure”, but try setting those two graphs to New Cases /Day instead of New Deaths /Day. There may be the start of a “corner turning”.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Rut roh.
CaseyL
@Feathers: I saw that. I always had a reasonably good opinion of Monica (and lots of sympathy), and my respect increases every time she’s in the public eye.
Today I left the house – gloved and masked – to deposit a check at an ATM, and then made a little run to Walgreens for some stuff I need sooner than the grocery delivery Friday. It was the first time I’ve entered a commercial establishment in more than 2 weeks.
(Had some fun at the ATM, yanking down the mask to say “Hi!” into the camera.)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I will not waste any compassion on Linda Tripp, beyond a vague hope it was painless for her. Monica Lewinsky is a better person than I
MomSense
My mom was outside putting things in her car, when a neighbor walked right up to my mom, picked something up my mom had dropped and handed it to her. I have tried so many times to explain to my mom that she can not get within 6 feet of anyone who hasn’t been sheltering in the house with us. She just doesn’t get it.
8 man shell
I understand that there may be ventilator shortages in NYC soon, so perhaps they could prioritize non-whites and non-asians to receive ventilators and that might drive up the white and asian deaths sufficiently so as to achieve parity.
Jeffro
WE INTERRUPT this thread to mention that my TCNJ dad’s bitterness over Bernie dropping out has just resulted in one of the happiest email exchanges of my life.
(The Bernie/AOC thing is me needling him about an earlier exchange, where I asked why – since they were 100% aligned on their policies – he loved him some Bernie and hated AOC. The ‘national unity’ thing is me needling him after one of his stupid rants about why we Americans couldn’t all just come together in this crisis.
And yes, he knows trumpov got ZERO ‘trump bump’ at this point…)
L to the OL.
raven
@Shalimar: We had a gun store owner (who is running for that pig Collins’ seat) sue the city for our lockdown even though they didn’t make him close. He’ll win the seat by a mile because of how they gerrymandered Athens.
I keep looking at the SOWAL webcam at Seagrove Dunes, that’s the beach where I fish and it’s such a bummer. I guess when it does open up the reds will be hungry!
Jeffro
@Feathers: This kind of grace is a victory lap unto itself. Two laps, maybe. ;)
raven
@MomSense: I didn’t realize that you couldn’t get it through your hands until people here informed me.
Jeffro
@Steeplejack (phone): Oh that is cool! We’ll have to pick one and order it soon.
As luck would have it, one of the puzzles is of Cinque Terre, where we vacationed in 2018. I’m holding that one back to surprise everyone this weekend.
LuciaMia
Hey, Didja hear? Ivanka Trump has created 15M jobs. Daddy says so!
TS (the original)
@joel hanes:
Thank you for the link. I wonder about changes to Wisconsin after last Saturday.
Elizabelle
@Jeffro: Meh. Easy to be gracious when the snitch was on her deathbed. But good for Monica. Gracious is gracious.
From WaPost, still a partial obit. NY Times included the “I hate Linda Tripp” quote too. And reminded us that Ms. Tripp was portrayed on SNL by … John Goodman. LOL.
LuciaMia
@Feathers: How strange now that almost ever obituary has some comment on whether coronavirus was involved.
joel hanes
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
When all the groceries have been put away, please rinse your mouth, disinfect the doorknobs, light switches and other touch surfaces, disrobe in the laundry room, go take a shower, and put on clean clothes.
Even if it’s just security theater, you’ll feel better.
Elizabelle
LOL. And the NY Times is adding to its Tripp obit.
Rudy Giuliani’s eventual obit gonna be a thing of beauty.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
I have a hard time believing you ever stopped.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
and the Five O’Clock Follies will be delayed until 5:30, because Joe Biden has scheduled an on-line townhall for 5:30 Eastern
Trump is hanging a lantern on the fact that these are campaign appearances. Is anyone in an office suite at CNN or NBC gonna see the light?
jonas
@germy: Remember when the GOP luuuuuuved secret whistleblowers? Good times.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Elizabelle:
Rudy Giuliani’s eventual obit gonna be a thing of beauty.
Mr Giuliani’s daughter Caroline, who has already gone back to using the name Hanover, tells The Times, “Yeah he’s dead. You know how long it takes for a will to get through probate?”
8 man shell
@LuciaMia:
I was just thinking how it’s going to be a thing 20 or 30 years from now when people talk the deaths of parents/grandparents/etc. to note that they died from “the Corona” or the “Covid” or whatever the standard phrase is.
There was a relative who died from the Spanish Flu buried in our family cemetery and the cause of death is mentioned by someone every time we’re out there. It’s kind of strange — the deaths caused by cancer/car wrecks/etc. are seldom mentioned in that context.
Maybe it’s just people’s way of connecting to a historical event?
Barbara
@Elizabelle: I hate the idea that “snitch” is an insult. It’s how communities are terrorized and kept in check by gangs. How about: Here lies a liar and a false friend?
Matt McIrvin
@terry chay: It’s so overdetermined. Black people live in cities, they’re poorer, they don’t have good access to health care, they’re more stressed out and affected by all the factors that produce hypertension, and I’d guess they’re way more likely to have essential jobs that they can’t do from home.
Structural racism as the Grim Reaper, as always.
Feathers
@LuciaMia: It’s the first question on everybody’s mind. OK, maybe just mine. But people are trying to sort out what all this death means, so they want to know if this particular death is part of the before times or the current horror.
Martin
I’m skeptical. The reports of increased deaths at home in NYC suggest that a lot of people who should have been hospitalized chose not to. Weird shit happens when systems reach capacity, one of which is that it may seem that the system has improved when really the public has just routed around it in some way and you’ve lost your ability to measure accurately.
And anyone whose taken a bus in NYC has a clue as to why there might be a difference in mortality rate by race. Money and whiteness buys you privacy, which is a lot more than a social privilege during a pandemic.
And I can’t speak for other areas of the country, but the vast majority of clinic techs, nurses, and doctors where i live are POC. You can only imagine what the custodial staff and other workers look like. I’d be willing to bet I haven’t had a nurse that wasn’t latino or filipino in years.
raven
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I went to the old people run at traders this morning and they did a pretty good job managing it.
Matt McIrvin
@joel hanes: Deaths are a lagging indicator. Massachusetts seems to have flattened their new-cases curve (knock on wood), but the really grim wave of deaths is yet to come, because we’re seeing people dying from when the total case number was lower. It’s going to feel bad when things are getting better.
raven
@Martin: We just got the report that 10 people died in a nursing home that serves low-income folks (about a half a mile from here).
Martin
@joel hanes: Unless you’re a republican, then don’t listen to that fake news. Instead, the proper way to disinfect it to douse yourself in kerosene, stand in a darkened bathroom saying ‘Trump is my daddy’ three times in the mirror while holding a lit candle in each hand.
Elizabelle
@Barbara: Liar and false friend works, and I think it’s the “false friend” that really did her reputation in. A betrayer.
Sure Lurkalot
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I went to a senior hour at Kroger affiliate on Monday and it wasn’t very crowded. Most people had masks, but a few were oblivious to keeping distance. Prepare to swerve!
Barbara
@Matt McIrvin: I think much of the excess mortality is also attributable to the vastly disproportionate rate of ESRD, diabetes and high blood pressure among African Americans (which does not negate the point you made, because these conditions and the lack of treatment thereof do correspond to poverty). I read an article in which one of the Chinese doctors said that high blood pressure appeared to materially increase the rate of severe disease. People with ESRD have incredibly fragile health. It’s one reason why DC went on lockdown earlier than surrounding areas. It has one of the highest rates of ESRD in the nation.
Chris Johnson
The one I watch is https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
It shows that the pandemic in the US is just BEGINNING to slow down and stop blowing up in exponential fashion. It’s going to be weeks before it really turns around, but this quarantine thing we’re doing is WHY it’s even slowing up. Courage, and keep it up, all y’all![]()
The reason I say weeks (not under a week) is that our population is so big and spread-out that the curves are magnified. The turn is happening slower, and when we finally get it seriously locked down the drop-off of new cases (over existing cases) will also be a slower, bigger curve. Smaller countries show quicker responses because it’s less of a big average over different places. New England can bounce back: the South is looking at some continuing trouble as they inevitably have to cope with quarantine like we did.
Greenergood
Sorry that this late to the thread but as far as I can read NYC and TrumpDC aren’t counting folks who’ve died at home as c-virus, because they werenNt tested which in NTC would be a LOT of people. WHEN will we get the tests? In the UK, the story is that the UN giv bought 17.5 million tests, and the figures out they were defective and can’t be used- rhx Boris
Martin
@raven: Nursing homes are a fucking nightmare right now. One here in CA, the staff just stopped showing up. There’s so many of them so poorly managed, staff underpaid.
There are good ones of course, but man the whole industry is just a shitshow. I don’t blame the workers overall – this is just the sins of the past finally coming to the surface.
WaterGirl
@8 man shell: What the hell?
8 man shell
@Martin:
There’s also the fact that pay at nursing homes is so low that it’s common for people to work at 2 or even 3 different facilities at the same time, stringing together shifts to make a living.
This mingling of workers really amps up the spread.
MoCA Ace
Got a facetime call from my son a few hours ago and I knew before I accepted the call. He is presumed Covid positive… low grade fever, lots of sinus pressure, and tired with minor body aches. He called the head nurse at work and she informed him they are up to 11 staff and residents that have tested positive, up from 2 about a week ago.
Of course since testing is so backlogged student health services told him he won’t get one unless his condition worsens… just stay home. Given his work history they will presume he is positive. He’s young and fit and will probably be fine.
I knew this was coming but it’s still like a punch in the gut… you Jackels are the first ones I have told since I can’t tell anyone else for fear it will get to my wife before she gets home from work. He’s going to tell her himself and I’ll get to mop up the mess.
FUCK TRUMP AND ANYONE WHO SUPPORTS HIM. FAMILY INCLUDED.
japa21
FWIW, there is some thinking that people are experiencing heart attacks and not getting care which would be life saving. Another school of thought is that people are not experiencing stress at work and having fewer heart attacks. IOW, nobody knows WTF the real story is and we may never know.
Uncle Cosmo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “You know how long it takes for a will to get through probate?”
In Ghouliani’s case, make that reprobate.
WaterGirl
@Barbara: What is ESRD?
Mike in NC
I read where — no surprise — all of the assholes over at FOX News are urging Fat Bastard to declare the pandemic is over and he’s King of the World.
CaseyL
@MoCA Ace: Fingers crossed for your son. Will you be checking in with him frequently? Please convey our thanks and best wishes.
(Can you call your wife at work? Or is it best not to interrupt whatever she’s doing?)
Martin
@MoCA Ace: Sorry to hear that. Have him get on top of the sinus pressure if he can. Sudafed, neti pot, etc. Hot beverages help, sleep inclined. Last thing he needs is a sinus infection on top of other things – it’s not the thing to tough out – treat it pretty aggressively. That’s led to pneumonia for me on one occasion.
Martin
@WaterGirl: End stage renal disease.
Elizabelle
Local news for Richmond, VA: we have a LOT of COVID deaths out of one rehab/skilled nursing facility. The youngest victim so far was 52. From the Richmond Times Dispatch:
Elizabelle
@MoCA Ace: Please keep us posted on your son. Worrisome, for sure. Hoping that his youth will protect him, and that he will come down with a light case.
Roger Moore
@Mike in NC:
I just don’t get this. I understand people want the pandemic to be over, but I don’t get how they can believe Trump can make it so just by declaring it over.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: In New England as well, so many of the deaths have just been the virus ripping through nursing homes and killing a dozen here, a dozen there.
Kattails
@WaterGirl: OT, but Aleta wanted some of the yeast I have on hand, asked me to get her email address from AL. I did so a couple of days ago & haven’t heard back, maybe it got into her spam? I’ve been having some issues w/ my local provider lately. Should I just try again? I don’t see a comment from Anne Laurie that I can reply to in the recent threads. Or give Aleta my email address. I’ve got an ounce and a half of nice Red Star bread yeast all wrapped up and ready to be addressed. Jesus does that sound illegal. Thanks, sorry to bother you!!
Barbara
@WaterGirl: Endstage Renal Disease. Basically, the condition that requires you to get dialysis unless you can get a kidney transplant.
opiejeanne
This looks like good news. Washington’s Governor Jay Inslee is sending back the Field Hospital at Century Link Field to the Feds so other states who need it more can use it. It never housesda single patient here
And I just saw that Linda Tripp has died.
Roger Moore
@opiejeanne:
I can’t say how happy I am that Gov. Newsom is confident enough in how things are going here in California that he’s started sending some of our respirators to more desperate states. It really reinforces the sense that we’re going to come out of this if not unscathed than at least much better off than most of the rest of the country.
Elizabelle
@Matt McIrvin: So sad.
I read in the LA Times that John Prine’s widow said he had been on heavy sedation. I was glad to hear that; troubled to think he might have been aware that he could not get enough breath.
Barbara
@Elizabelle: I think people on ventilators by definition have to be on heavy sedation. Yes, it’s really sad.
Miss Bianca
@MoCA Ace: So sorry to hear it. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
Brachiator
@Mike in NC:
There are states that have not hit their peaks yet.
But Trump has a tiny attention span. He is hot to move on to something else. And to call another one of his flattery rallies.
Brachiator
@MoCA Ace:
My thoughts are with you and your family.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@joel hanes: how many people are dying without going to the hospital? How many are dying without a test so no official COVID-19 as cause of death?
joel hanes
@Shalimar:
there is virtually no testing [in Florida]
Testing is grossly inadequate almost everywhere, and the way it’s administered skews the numbers to the point of uselessness.
That’s why I look at death numbers.
Deaths are a matter of public record. But I suspect that in some red states that were tragically late imposing isolation measures *cough*Florida*cough*, the government is being very careful not to record COVID-19 as the cause of deaths from ARD or coronary failure, because they don’t want to “look bad”.
joel hanes
@Mandalay:
IMHO, test results numbers are worthless, because we don’t have adequate test capability, and because there’s no geographic uniformity in test capability or in choosing who gets tested.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I live in Alameda County were there have been sixteen deaths so far, six of these deaths turned out to residents of one rest home were the virus got it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@joel hanes: Speaking of Florida, Tallahassee seems oddly blank considering the counties just north of it in Georgia are pretty hard it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Pete Mack: Speaking from first hand experience of the East Asians I work with, they are utterly terrified of this virus and the company I worked for enacted social distancing polices two weeks before the county declared an emergency.
MoCA Ace
Thank you all for your concern. Actually my wife took the news a lot better than I thought she would. Tomorrow we will overnight a care package of Tylenol, Sudafed, and other medicines he might need. He is in good spirits… just lonely bumping around in a house for 6 by himself. He has plenty of friends close by to drop groceries etc as needed.
On a positive note he was saying his fiance sent him a link to the CF foundation. Apparently they are seeing most people with CF recovering from Covid19. Fairly small sample size but the general trend seems to be holding with young patients having more mild symptoms. Obviously we have all been concerned about her.