Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

We still have time to mess this up!

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Infrastructure week. at last.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

No one could have predicted…

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Saturday/Sunday, April 11/12

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Saturday/Sunday, April 11/12

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Apparently BCG isn’t usually given in the U.S. any more, but it still is in Russia; some weeks ago, I remember twitter discussions of whether these infant vaccinations might have something to do with Russians’ relative ‘immunity’ to COVID-19…


Here’s a link to a really good article explaining why it’s hardly a slam dunk for wider use:

Another ‘miracle cure’ with much riding on it — Remdesivir:

Clarifying (if depressing) read:

Surely a teamup between Apple, Google, and the imagined ‘global deep state’ won’t make anybody suspicious, in this time of great need…

Now they begin…

It ain’t over till it’s over:


Floriduh man, global embarrassment:

Reader Interactions

35Comments

  2. 2.

    La Nonna

    Lots of talk, twitter here about starting lockdown easing after 3 May, the next target date for Italy… I think it is way too optimistic to be talking about Phases 1, 2, and 3 already, as we watch S. Korea start to find cases of either re-infection or longer duration infections that seem to be cured but actually are not.  As someone in the danger group, and likely to be triaged away from intensive therapies, I think we will keep to home for quite a while longer.  How easy it is not to shop or be in crowds, yes, we miss our friends and family, but feel we are protecting others as well as ourselves.  My vow of buy nothing new in 2020 is surprisingly easy in real life now.

  3. 3.

    Geminid

    When Virginia Governor Northam tightened existing social distancing measures March 31 he made a sound move by extending them to June 10. Virginia seems to be less restrictive than some other states as far as travel to work and what work is allowed. Basically, work that can be carried on within the social distancing parameters is allowed, not just “essential” activities. Is this a mistake, or a potential template for the more restrictive states when the time is right to begin moderating policy? But testing is still so limited that one could only guess the answer. We are still making policy in a fog.

  4. 4.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s daily numbers. 153 new cases, running total 4,683; 3 deaths, running total 76. DG of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah says his Ministry is maintaining its focus on tracing and testing high-risk target groups in concert with other agencies and with non-government groups e.g. the Tablighi Jumaat group in Malaysia.

    It’s frustrating that reporters at his daily media conferences just want to get into the weeds on the Ministry’s reported numbers and the hot new stories on test kits and treatments and vaccines. They aren’t asking if there has been, as in places like New York City, any spike in deaths not attributed to Covid-19 that could point to undetected cases — which I think could be a risk with the Ministry’s tightly focused testing strategy.

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:That depends on how rigorously social distancing rules are enforced to begin with, and how many of the business that claim they can obey the rule are lying or gaming the rules (not a question of if)…

  6. 6.

    Chris Johnson

    Google is the perfect choice for the development of a temporary surveillance state because they’re guaranteed to stop supporting it within four years.

    Ahahaha OH MY GOD. That is the hardest I’ve laughed since all this started. I can’t tell whether it’s because it’s a dark joke or because it’s secretly true, which is probably why it’s so funny…

  7. 7.

    Chris Johnson

    Also, this is my charting thing that I go by for the USA: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

    What I see there is, the quarantine is working. It’s not really kicked in yet, but it IS working. Therefore, it must be stopped, I guess? I would say nope, it’s working, keep it up :)

  8. 8.

    Amir Khalid

    Aki from Japan’s take on the situation in Malaysia. He says he and other Japanese expatriates here are worried about the situation back home, where for some reason people just aren’t taking Covid-19 as seriously as Malaysians do.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    About the 99 new confirmed cases in China yesterday: 97 are imports, and a whopping 89 of them originated from Russia; 21 entered in Heilingjiang Province (likely Suifenhe), 17 in Inner Mongolia (likely Manzhiuli), 1 at Guangzhou. 51 confirmed cases from a single flight from Moscow to Shanghai on Apr. 9, with another 29 still suspect. Not sure how many asymptomatic cases were found yesterday, originating from Russia. All cases were found after the returnees have already been under mandatory 14 day centralized quarantine.

    Most of the confirmed and suspect cases on the flight from Moscow to Shanghai are Chinese nationals doing business at the major traders’ market in Moscow. It is conceivable that there is a major outbreak among the vendors and workers at that specific market. However, Chinese communities overseas (especially first generation) have been much more alert to the dangers of COVID-19, stocking up on PPEs and sanitizers, and practicing social distancing, and have been less badly hit than the native population. See the Chinese community in Prato, Tuscany. Not a single confirmed case among the more than fifty thousand Chinese immigrants there. At this point, I am willing to entertain the possibility that the epidemic in Russia (especially Moscow) may be one of the worst anywhere.

    The two new domestic confirmed cases are both in Harbin, capital of the Heilingjiang Province. There is a small family cluster (so far) if two confirmed and three asymptomatic cases. Ironically, they were not infected by a returnee from Russia. Apparently one of the family members is roommate with someone who returned from the US in the second half of Mar., who was self-quarantining at home for 14 days (this was before mandatory centralized quarantine was implemented). The returnee was tested for PCR, antigen and antibody at the end of Mar., all of which came back negative. After contact tracing for the domestic cases, he was tested again a couple of days ago, and was found positive for antibodies. He has been deemed as a recovered case, and may have been infectious during the early phase of his self-quarantine. 456 close contacts have been traced from Thai cluster, all of whom are in self-quarantine or centralized medical quarantine. This is yet another reminder how difficult it is to screen for and contain COVID-19, and that both PCR and antibody tests can have false negatives.

  10. 10.

    Shalimar

    I worry that the real reason DeSantis doesn’t want the public to know which nursing homes have cases is because they would have to disclose the total number of cases there too, which would expose that they’re not putting all of them in the official numbers.

  12. 12.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Chris Johnson: reported cases is a meaningless number, too many places are deliberately under reporting like Florida and Texas and even states like California who take the virus seriously freely admit not enough testing has been done. The more useful number is the death rate.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The CCP regime could and should actually try the strategy of leading a global effort to restrict wildlife trade and consumption, and tightly regulate both the wet markets and the factory farms (and other potential vectors for zoonotic cross-over). That would garner more support and accrue more soft power. It’s not like the pig farms in North America became much better regulated following the H1N1 pandemic of 2009.

    But, the CCP does what the CCP typically does, it is paranoid about controlling the narrative, however futile that will be in this case. The world will always remember that COVID-19 originated in a wet market in Wuhan , China that sold wild life. (Even if the animal to human event may not actually have occurred at the market.) Most people in China will also remember that the first major outbreak was in Wuhan.

  14. 14.

    Amir Khalid

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    If it hadn’t been for the political changes in 2018, and the resulting expectation of openness from our leadership, Malaysia might well have found itself in much the same boat with Covid-19.

  15. 15.

    tokyocali (formerly tokyo expat)

    @Amir Khalid: Thank you. I would not have seen this were it not for your link. I sent it to my sons.

    I agree with his take. While shops have closed, which has led to people not gathering in those places, it just means they are out in the parks back home. My husband WFH last week Mon-Th. He went in on Fri b/c he had to. He caught a train home between 4 and 5 and said that it was crowded. No way to do social distancing. On the news they are talking about reducing contact 80%. I’m not sure that’s possible when many people are still traveling into work during the week.

    My university has pushed back the schedule twice now. We are currently supposed to start classes May 18, with orientation week May 11th. The government’s emergency declaration goes until the 6th. I doubt very much we can open up on the 6th when we have nearly 200 new cases every day. But while other universities have decided to go online, mine hasn’t.

    Current Japanese law does not provide much force. All the government can do is really ask people to stay inside, but they can’t fine or imprison them if they don’t. The entire exercise relies on social pressure if the situation worsens.

    But, hey, the Japanese government is sending two cloth masks to every household. Of course there are 4 of us…

  16. 16.

    WereBear

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The CCP regime could and should actually try the strategy of leading a global effort to restrict wildlife trade and consumption, and tightly regulate both the wet markets and the factory farms (and other potential vectors for zoonotic cross-over). That would garner more support and accrue more soft power. It’s not like the pig farms in North America became much better regulated following the H1N1 pandemic of 2009.

     
    I could not agree more. Dr. Fauci, perhaps the most respected US science voice during this crisis, is focused on that moving forward.

  17. 17.

    BobS

    @Chris Johnson: Interesting story about Google- I was having an email conversation with a friend which included a discussion of side 2 of Abbey Road.

    When I clicked over to YouTube, the “recommended” page included…a story about making the side 2 medley.

  18. 18.

    Geminid

    @Amir Khalid: Had it not been for political change in the U.S. in 2018- the retaking of the House of Representatives by the Democrats- we would be in even bigger trouble than we are now. I hate to even think where we would stand had we not flipped those 41 congressional seats.

  19. 19.

    WereBear

    @Geminid:

    Had it not been for political change in the U.S. in 2018- the retaking of the House of Representatives by the Democrats- we would be in even bigger trouble than we are now. I hate to even think where we would stand had we not flipped those 41 congressional seats.

     
    Hardly a day goes by that I don’t think about that.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @WereBear: I saw one quote from Dr. Fauci saying all wet markets should be banned yesterday, and expressed shock that the ones in China are allowed to stay open, which to me is actually misdiagnosing the problem. Wildlife trade should be banned, or at least severely curtailed, wet markets and factory farms need to be more tightly regulated. However, he was speaking to Fox “News” at that time, so maybe he was throwing Trump a bone in the least nauseating way he could manage.

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Amir Khalid: I remember the Malaysian response to MH370 was confused and chaotic. Glad to see a much more competent showing to COVID-19, in stark contrast to Indonesia.

  24. 24.

    Anya

    BCG is still used in much of Africa. I know infant vaccinations is widely used in North East Africa. If BCG has something to do with Russians’ relative ‘immunity’ to COVID-19, then it’ll be the same for other parts of the world that still use BCG vaccination for infants.

  26. 26.

    Jinchi

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: It’s an undercount, but that doesn’t make it meaningless. You can still see a very strong exponential signal even in an imperfect count. In places where they are taking the numbers seriously we can estimate how well their efforts to stop the spread are working.

    In the last 38 days, the number of confirmed cases in the US has gone from 300 to 3,000 to 25,000 to 100,000 to 300,000 to 500,000 from one week to the next. The next steps we take will depend on whether the count 7 days from now is below 750,000 or well over a million.

    And remember, Republicans have shown a strong tendency to flat out deny this even exists. It’s hard to do that when people can see that the numbers keep doubling. The strongest ad against Trump simply played his remarks while showing the totals exploding.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jinchi: Isn’t the US hitting a bottleneck of ~ 150K tests a day (or test results a day)? If so, the testing may not be able to capture a  a significantly higher number of confirmed cases, from continued exponential growth. Especially as the criteria for testing remains fairly strict in most states, and I assume a lot of tests are consumed to periodically check the HCWs? People across the country have been advised to self-quarantine if with mild symptoms, and only go to the hospital if developing difficulty breathing. However, most people are probably afraid to go to the hospital right now (at least at epicenters like NYC), and hold off for so long that they quickly crash. Hence the surge of cardiac arrests and DOA at NYC.

  28. 28.

    Mathguy

    Some really sad news on the deaths front: John H. Conway, a well-known mathematician and highly entertaining lecturer at Princeton, died from COVID-19. Most people would have known of him through a game he developed, the Game of Life.

  29. 29.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The world will always remember that COVID-19 originated in a wet market in Wuhan , China that sold wild life. (Even if the animal to human event may not actually have occurred at the market.)

    Yeah, I’ve been loosely tracking the science on this, and the specific zoonotic cross-over causal path and timeline are not at all clear, and may never be. Though it seems likely that it is related to wildlife farming (if it was a purely random event), since the numbers of animals are so much larger with farming.

  30. 30.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anya:

    If BCG has something to do with Russians’ relative ‘immunity’ to COVID-19, then it’ll be the same for other parts of the world that still use BCG vaccination for infants.

    Not clear, since there are multiple BCG strains used, and practices vary:
    The BCG World Atlas: A Database of Global BCG Vaccination Policies and Practices (March 22, 2011)

    Since the publication of the M. tuberculosis genome, comparative genomic studies have documented that BCG vaccine strains have evolved and differ from each other and from the original BCG first used in 1921. Because these genetic differences affect antigenic proteins, these changes may translate into differences in efficacy and effect on the tuberculin skin test (TST). Work done by Ritz and Curtis looking at global BCG strain variations demonstrates the diversity of strains used by different countries and even within the same countries. They found that 44% (83/188) of countries reported using more than one BCG strain type during an interval of only 5 years.

    Definitely interesting though, just harder to disentangle the signal (if any) from the noise.

  31. 31.

    Jim Parish

    @Mathguy: That hurts. I had the pleasure of being on a mailing list, devoted to classical Euclidean geometry, that Conway frequented, and learned a lot from him. The mathematical community has suffered a great loss.

  32. 32.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yes, like here is California the infected count is only expected surge for the simple fact that the ability to process tests is being speed up, but it’s really old information. Deaths and ICU admissions seem to be the best real time information.

  33. 33.

    Jinchi

    @YY_Sima Qian: If so, the testing may not be able to capture a a significantly higher number of confirmed cases, from continued exponential growth.

    No doubt we’d like better testing. But it’s still important to get out the (incomplete) count, in part to stress the severity of the problem.

    Compare the case of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. The official death count stood at 15 for weeks, because they didn’t have the time, resources (or inclination) to do a better assessment. Even though all the morgues were over filled and it was clearly wrong, but no-one knew how wrong. Trump seized on the number, praised his own work and ignored the island while it wallowed in misery for another 9 months. The updated estimates (between 1500 and 3000)  came out months later, long after most people were paying any attention.

    500,000 confirmed cases is a big deal even if it’s a severe undercount. There is no way Republicans would feel forced to move on addressing the pandemic if everyone simply ignoring the confirmed count until we could get an accurate number.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    My thanks as well for all the links, AL.

    I do wish, though, that there was much less breathless reporting on various treatments and tests that companies are trying.  We know that China sequenced the RNA of the virus in just a few days.  We know that they’re very good about trying all kinds of things (from ancient folk medicine to modern genomics) very quickly.  If some on-the-shelf herb or vitamin or drug or vaccine was effective, we would have heard about it from China – with evidence – months ago.

    There’s no simple solution to COVID-19.  We need to provide the resources and spend the money to do the work.

    Thanks again.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  35. 35.

    Another Scott

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: I assume that the only “accurate” number we will have when this is over is “deaths above baseline” and that will be a lagging statistic (maybe years later).  And it will be argued over for years (“the baseline flu season was worse than average yes/no”), also too.

    But we can’t let them bury the numbers via not counting deaths outside of hospitals, and continuing to do what they can to minimize testing.

    Grr…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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