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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Physical distancing responding to information, not policy

Physical distancing responding to information, not policy

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A good chunk of the former Confederacy is in the process of dramatically loosening state level policy restrictions on movement.  Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina are telling many more businesses that they can re-open and that stay at home orders will be significantly loosened or allowed to expire.

Will this matter?  The fundamental question is whether or not the general population is responding to new information about COVID-19 or responding to policy changes as to how they shift their behavior on physical interactions and social movement.

Dr. Kosali Simon of Indiana University is leading a team that is aggregating and analyzing state and sub-state (county/city/school district) level COVID-19 responses and then subsequent infection, hospitalization and death outcomes.  She presented at the inaguaral Electronic Health Econ Consortium (EHEC) seminar series some of the preliminary results.

Right now, it looks like people are primarily responding to new information.  Significant populations began to restrict movement and economic engagement well before the first wave of closure orders.  At the local level, people seem to be responding to the number of cases, the number of deaths and the incidence of first reported deaths.  The stay at home orders had little observed effect on people reducing travel.  The trends seem to be constant.

Martin Andersen, a health economist at the University of North Carolina-Greensboro (and a friend), also has some preliminary work that suggest the same thing.  People started physical distancing well before policy mandated  social distancing occurred.  He also finds that partisan and information consumption patterns had notable differences in the level of social distancing that could be observed at the county level.

The early, and very preliminary evidence suggests that information matters more than policy.  What that means, is  that people are looking at the disease and its deadliness and using that to determine their actions while mostly tuning out whatever the governor is saying to background noise.  This could change as financial crunches could force people to make choices that they don’t want to make, but at the moment, the official re-opening of good chunks of the Southeast won’t be a huge deal as most people will still be staying away from other people.

Reader Interactions

18Comments

  1. 1.

    Matt McIrvin

    If your employer “reopens” that means you can get ordered back to work and lose any shot at collecting unemployment if you won’t go. So even if it doesn’t reduce physical distancing, it could increase the economic hit from changed behavior.

  2. 2.

    ThresherK

    @Matt McIrvin: I’m fascinated (appalled) at the verb open everyone in the media is using.

    We’re not waiting for them to open Disneyland. People aren’t lined up for miles with eager families and fistfuls of hundred dollar bills they’d throw at things if only Big Gummint got out of the way and let Donald Trump cut the red ribbon with a pair of fancy oversized scissors.

    Tangent: All outputs of ABC News, including top-of-hour headlines, are sucking sht on this.

  3. 3.

    FlyingToaster (Tablet)

    @Matt McIrvin: However, if you don’t get enough customers to cover payroll, you’ll be closing again within the week.

    We saw that already in MA, where restaurants couldn’t make enough from takeout only.  Some are shut for the duration: others for a week or two and then reopening with limited days/hours.

  4. 4.

    p.a.

    “causal analysis is difficult”  mmmhmmm.  Old Onion headline:  National ScienceFoundation: Science Hard.
    Economics: perfect sufficient information needed for rational decisions.

    Psychology: rational/emotional is a continuum that differs between individuals, and varies in individuals at any one time.

    But the sine qua non is sufficient information.

  5. 5.

    Raven

    People in Athens, GA are going to stick with the program but I don’t know that we are representative of the state.

  6. 6.

    WereBear

    @Raven: Aren’t you in a blue spot in a red state? College town? My region is kind of like that, and I think it makes a big difference.

    Last election my town went for HRC, while a town 30 minutes away went for Trump. And that pattern is more or less holding.

  8. 8.

    daveNYC

    Seems like the various state governments announcing that everything is cool and they’re re-opening would count as the sort of new information that would drive changes in behavior.

  9. 9.

    David Anderson

    @Matt McIrvin: Yep, but if people who are not employees don’t show up to buy stuff, the store is closing again in a week.

    That is basically what I am implicitly arguing.  There won’t be customers spending enough money to keep places open as people are rationally responding to the information (COVID is common, present and infectious as fuck) and staying home.

  11. 11.

    planetjanet

    Policy matters.  If you are forced to go back to work, you may not be able to maintain social distancing.

  12. 12.

    narya

    Meanwhile, Pritzker extended IL through the end of May. I live in a blue corner of a blue city in a blue state, and I have been seeing quite a few face coverings, even on my early-morning runs. (Runners have actually been really good about giving each other plenty of space; dog walkers, OTOH . . . not so much.) The grocery store staff have masks and checkout counters have plexiglass barriers. The usage is imperfect, but at least there’s some awareness and compliance. I think we’re going to see some massive outbreaks in those red states by the end of May.

  13. 13.

    BruceFromOhio

    He also finds that partisan and information consumption patterns had notable differences in the level of social distancing that could be observed at the county level.

    The stupid, it doesn’t just burn, now it can kill.

    @narya:

    I think we’re going to see some massive outbreaks in those red states by the end of May.

    I think you are correct.

  15. 15.

    Sab

    @Sab: Two of my kids are essential workers. One is in a company that is very careful. The other is non-management in a company that doesn’t care about anyone but senior management. Ditto for his fiancee. We live in fear all day every day.

  16. 16.

    Matt McIrvin

    @David Anderson: I’m thinking some of these employers know perfectly well that they’re not going to remain open, but are pretending they will so they can reduce headcount and screw some terminated workers out of unemployment.

  17. 17.

    joel hanes

    information matters more than policy

    and this is how Trump’s “pressers” have killed people, and will kill more people.

  18. 18.

    JaneE

    Being able to collect unemployment is a big deal.  For workers it is the difference between something and nothing.  For states it is millions they (don’t) have to pay out.  When the governors “opening up” their states don’t even wait for the input of their own experts, you just know that public health and safety are no part of their calculation.

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