Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

‘Museums aren’t America’s attic for its racist shit.’

Democrats have delivered the Square Deal, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and now… the Big Joe Biden Deal.

I’m just a talker, trying to find a channel!

Republicans do not pay their debts.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

We won’t go back.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

So many bastards, so little time.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Fight them, without becoming them!

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Books are my comfort food!

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Saturday/Sunday, April 25/26

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Saturday/Sunday, April 25/26

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62Comments

  2. 2.

    Amir Khalid

    DG of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah is announcing today’s numbers for Malaysia. 38 new cases, total 5,780; no deaths, total still 98. 100 patients recovered and discharged, total 3,862 (66.8% of total cases). CFR is 2.47%.

  3. 3.

    Brachiator

    As they consider reopening, states vary widely in their ability to trace the contacts of those infected with the coronavirus.

    We, the US and other countries, are going to have to create new laws that guarantee health insurance and income support for some people.

    We need more testing. In Los Angeles county, people can go to some designated sites for testing, but you may also need teams that go out to people who might not have cars or be able to drive.

    But what if people test positive? If you expect people to self-isolate, or you have to treat people who come down with the disease, you may need to insure that they they have health coverage and you may need to make sure they have money if they lose their job.

    Otherwise, some people will avoid getting a test.

  4. 4.

    TriassicSands

    The most important thing we know right now about SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 is that we don’t know much of anything for sure. For example, we don’t know if we will ever have an effective vaccine, yet almost everyone talks and writes about when, not if. There is a lot about herd immunity, but as WHO just pointed out we don’t know if infection confers immunity and if it does, how complete it will be or how long it will last.

    Slow down.

  5. 5.

    Amir Khalid

    It’s worrying that governments are talking up plans to ease lockdown restrictions this early. It appears to be driven not so much any indication that it’s safe to ease up, but rather by the public getting antsy after weeks in lockdown. I reckon the world as a whole is, at best, some months away from being able to do that — and possibly a year or more away.

  8. 8.

    Anya

    I just hope Trump doesn’t advocate the use of tobacco as a cure in his next demented press conference.

    BBC

    The different approaches to lockdowns in Africa

    Why do African States differ over lockdowns?

    Do all European countries have the same approach? Do all asian counties? Hell, not all American states have the same approach.

    Shouldn’t the BBC know better than ask that question

    ETA: now that I’ve read the whole article, I can say that it’s as ignorant and vacuous in its approach as its headline.

    Too bad, one expects more from the BBC.

  9. 9.

    OzarkHillbilly

    Those numbers out of Mexico, 13,842 cases and 1,305 deaths. That’s almost a 10% CFR. We don’t test near enough and our CFR stands at 1.2% or thereabouts.

    TASF.

  10. 10.

    Cermet

    This virus – SARS-CoV-2 – does not have a very large genome compared to the common “cold’ virus. For this reason, I’ve read, it is unlikely to mutate very rapidly like a standard flu. If such is the case, its likely that once someone gets over COVID-19 they will not get it again for awhile – around a year or so (of course, each person is different in how long their bodies create the required anti-bodies.)

    If a viable vaccine is found, it should work well for most people (immunity will, on average, last that year or so.)

    As I understand, whether a vaccine is possible depends on whether COVCIR-19’s  surface site(s) that allow it to attach to our cells are stable (likely) and can then be mimic via standard methods. This appears likely so a vaccine should then be available but even if all goes well, looking at about a year for mass dosing to be available. If it mutates slowly as they think, then a viable vaccine will be fully able to stop its spread if most people get it (another unknown but bet many antivaxxer’s will sing a different tune.)

  11. 11.

    Amir Khalid

    @Anya:

    Sweden seems to be reconsidering its unconventional approach. From The Guardian‘s liveblog:

    Sweden’s deputy prime minister, Isabella Lövin, just gave a very interesting interview to the BBC’s Andrew Marr show in the UK.

    She was asked whether Sweden’s less-restrictive social distancing measures – bars, borders and restaurants remain open, as do schools for the under-16s – had led to a higher death toll in the country. Sweden’s death rate from Covid-19 is nearly 200 per million people, compared to 31 in neighbouring Finland and 36 in Norway.

    Lövin admitted Sweden had a “big problem” with its strategy to protect the elderly and that this was “something we’re learning from”. …

  12. 12.

    NotMax

    A resource for aggregate geographic data. From the site’s FAQ:

    Where does the data come from?
    Data is gathered from multiple sources. There are often inconsistencies across various data sources, so data is merged to the best of my abilities.

    • Johns Hopkins CSV
    Daily reports

    • Johns Hopkins Dashboard
    Daily and real-time data

    • WHO Situation Data
    Daily reports

    • Worldometer
    Daily reports, real-time, and testing data

    • Wikipedia
    Daily reports, real-time, and testing data

    • Our World In Data
    Testing data
    .

  13. 13.

    Amir Khalid

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    The case fatality rate is calculated as a fraction, not of total cases diagnosed, but of closed cases (i.e. recoveries plus deaths). That is, not 1,305 out of 13,842; but 1,305 out of 8,454, which yields an even more alarming CFR of 15%. These numbers are from Mexico’s worldometer page.

  14. 14.

    SectionH

    France is testing WHAT? No, srsly, I was gonna get my college french on and read, but NO. Just NO. ampFrance24, and I looked at what else, and no, I’m gonna pass.

  15. 15.

    Amir Khalid

    @SectionH:

    The President of the United States has suggested ingesting household disinfectants. At least smoking doesn’t kill you right away.

  17. 17.

    SectionH

    I know that. Do You know from France24? If you tell me it’s legit, I will take them more seriously. But I lived in Kentucky for a long time (I used to say “I live there, I’m not from there”) and tobacco has a very long history of only poisoning ppl slowly. So yeah.

    eta: Smoking being a deterrent? Uh huh.

  18. 18.

    clay

    So the US has over 25% of worldwide deaths.  We used to be able to meet challenges. I guess those days are gone.

  19. 19.

    NotMax

    @SectionH

    France24 has been around for more than a few years; legit organization, state-owned, similar to BBC or Deutsche Welle.

  20. 20.

    JPL

    What’s a little nicotine between friends.   See trump was correct when he tore into Azar about his restrictions on vaping.    You know that some folks are going to let their children use nicotine patches now.

  22. 22.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    I followed the france24 link. The article is in English. It appears that the source of the hypothesis is a couple of data points (one from China) that found lower rates of smoking among Coronavirus cases than among the general population. They want to do larger clinical trials of nicotine patches.

    I wonder if they’ve tested against the possibility that the numbers are lower in LIVE patients because of a higher early fatality rate.

  23. 23.

    Anya

    @Amir Khalid:  I haven’t read enough to understand why they took this root but I am curious to read more if you have any additional links.

    Immigrants seem to be highly overrepresented among COVID-19 deaths. Some of the reasons might be that many of the newcomers who don’t speak the language didn’t receive proper information or PSA in their languages. But also poverty and crowded housing is probably the biggest reason.

  25. 25.

    New Deal democrat

    @TriassicSands: I am going to seriously dissent from the inference made by the WHO. I read their “there is no evidence that people can’t be reinfected” exactly the same as William Barr’s “there is no finding that Trump obstructed justice.”

    “No evidence” in this case means “we simply don’t know.”

    But there is no reason to think that COVID-19 is different from other viruses. There is probably at least resistance, if not immunity, that lasts for some period of time.

    One evolutionary reason that there is no lasting immunity to the flu is that the virus mutates so fast that the immune system no longer recognizes it. And there is no evolutionary benefit to keeping antibodies around for a drive-by virus that won’t be seen again.

    By contrast, it appears that this virus mutates slowly. The immune system will probably recognize it as the same over a longer period of time. Further, if it does not disappear in the summer, until there is herd immunity the likelihood is that people will have repeated exposures over a smaller window of time as the virus continues to circulate. I.e., it will be like a “booster shot.”

    In short, while there is “no evidence” either way at this point, I think societies ought to take the default position that there is resistance. We can’t stay in self-quarantine for years.

  26. 26.

    TS (the original)

    @Geeno:

    Or perhaps smokers are already somewhat socially isolated?

    Interesting thought. In most countries today the only place one can smoke without argument or inconvenience is at home.

    When I gave up the habit 15 years ago, the main positive I found was the ability to be able to go anywhere & not spend time wondering when and where I could get the next nicotine hit. Consequently, as a smoker I spent much time at home – probably why the shutdown now doesn’t bother me. I’m used to being at home.

  28. 28.

    zzyzx

    @New Deal democrat:

    Yes, that’s how I’m reading it. In my world, the WHO is saying, “Hey, we don’t actually know this yet. Be careful with our assumptions,” but it reads like, “OMG! There’s no immunity!”

    It’ll become really obvious really quickly if there’s no immunity when Europe tries to reopen. There would be a massive reinfection period really quickly if there is none.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    WHO’s statement of “lack of evidence for immunity in recovered patients” should be taken in the same vein as mid-Jan. statement that “there is not yet any evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.” JM both cases, the WHO was making carefully worded, scientifically rigorous announcement, that the public and mass media misinterpret. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. WHO always updates their assessment as new information and evidence emerge. Where I think it has failed in this pandemic is delaying in announcing the pandemic, and significantly delay in acknowledging the efficacy of universal mask wearing.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    As some here know, my dad was on that first evacuation flight from Wuhan to March ARB. He certainly confirmed at the time the poor PPE protocol and lackadaisical attitude of CDC personnel at March toward COVID-19. The CDC officials did not wear mask of any kind when addressing the evacuees as a group, in indoor environment. The evacuees wore masks. The evacuees were initially not placed under mandatory quarantine, but voluntary 3 day quarantines. Apparently someone in DC did not want to put up with the expense of quarantining over 200 evacuees. Several evacuees decided to leave the facility that first evening, and were tracked down and sent back by local authorities. They were not placed under mandatory 14 day quarantine until a couple of days later. During quarantine, the evacuees were allowed to congregate during meal and leisure time, without social distancing measures enforced. It was simply luck that no one on the first flight was pre-symptomatic, and create a cluster then and there.

  31. 31.

    terben

    Today’s numbers from Australian Dept of Health:
    ‘As at 3:00pm on 26 April 2020, there have been 6,711 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 16 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.
    Of the 6,711 confirmed cases in Australia, 83 have died and 5,539 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19. More than 506,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.’
    Australia is experiencing a period where recovery numbers are greater than new infections. There are currently c.1190 active cases, and approx 10% of those are hospitalised. There are currently about 2 deaths occurring each day.

    A couple of States, which had imposed stricter lockdown rules than those recommended nationally, have decided to relax the rules slightly. As well, schools in several States will reopen after their scheduled Easter break.

  32. 32.

    Jinchi

    @Amir Khalid: It appears to be driven not so much any indication that it’s safe to ease up, but rather by the public getting antsy after weeks in lockdown.

    That’s definitely not true in the US.

    Pretty much everywhere, people started social distancing before their local governments came around to issuing orders and overwhelmingly people are concerned that things will open up too soon. The response of political leaders on the other hand has been dominated by “let the virus sweep through the population” to create herd immunity, and that if that meant some pensioners die, ‘too bad’.

    In the US, even the protests to reopen the government have been funded and coordinated by right wing media and billionaires.

  33. 33.

    New Deal democrat

    @Amir Khalid:
    Thanks, Amir.
     
    For the record, here is the revised WHO statement. Much better:
     
    “Earlier today we tweeted about a new WHO scientific brief on “immunity passports”. The thread caused some concern & we would like to clarify: We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection.

    “What we don’t yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body’s response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions.”

  34. 34.

    debbie

    @JPL:

    How soon until ERs are flooded with children who have chewed and swallowed nicotine patches?  //

    Two months in and I still can’t get wipes, rubbing alcohol, or Purell. There are no eggs at the store. Something more is going on. It’s hard not to believe the people hoarding or confiscating PPPEs are not also hoarding or confiscating these other products.

  35. 35.

    Jinchi

    @YY_Sima Qian: the WHO was making carefully worded, scientifically rigorous announcement, that the public and mass media misinterpret.

    It’s a pretty important one, considering so many on the right are explicitly advocating a policy of herd immunity. They are telling the public that immunity is a certainty.

    What if it’s not?

  36. 36.

    Jinchi

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: They want to do larger clinical trials of nicotine patches.

    It seems that they haven’t done any clinical trials at all.  According to the article the researchers are simply putting forward a hypothesis: ‘Hey there are a lot of non-smokers in the ICU, I wonder if nicotine is a preventive?’.

    We’re not even to the level of the original hydroxychloroquine study yet.

    My personal hypothesis is that you should stay the hell away from cigarettes until there is solid evidence to back it up.

  37. 37.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Life in Wuhan remains far from normal. All residential compounds and places of work remain under restricted access across the city.

    Official policies remain quite strict. Only people with Return to Work Authorization letters from their employers can leave the residential compounds on a regular basis, and only then between home and work. Restrictions vary depending on the district, neighborhood and community, as decided by the municipal Epidemic Control and Prevention Command. Criteria is a bit opaque, but most likely having to do with presence of confirmed and asymptomatic cases found in the community. Only one access pass is granted to each family. In theory, only one member of each family can leave the residential compound at a time for shopping or personal business, for maximum of two hours. Some communities allow one person from each family to leave every day, some every two days, some every three days, as decided by the municipal command. In theory, that person can only stay within the community when outside of the compound, a community is composed of a dozen or more compounds. Each person needs to present the pass and green health code on mobile APP when entering and leaving the compound, plus a temperature check. Entering just about any location (including convenience stores), one needs to present a green health code and pass a temperature scan.

    Of course, as with every rule, regulation and legislation in China, actual enforcement is uneven. I have seen contractor security guards that man the gates of residential compounds and businesses only checking the temperature and health code of the driver, even when there are multiple people in the vehicle. Many guards do not appear to be strictly enforcing the one person per family at a time rule, or the frequency rule. Some are willing to let people out for more than two hours at a time. I don’t think anyone is actually enforcing the range limit (to within the community) during the two hour excursions. While I appreciate the additional bit of freedom of movement these uneven enforcement provide, it is also a bit concerning from an epidemic prevention and control perspective.

    I also try to be much more careful in following the rules. I, as a US passport holder, will be under extra scrutiny should anything go wrong. If I have the misfortune of being tested positive (even as an asymptomatic case), contact tracing would reveal whether I have broken any of the official rules. If I did, and caused more areas to be locked down again than necessary, I expect to be raked over the coals by public opinion. Although my personal information may not be disclosed by the authorities, there will be enough information in the published case reports for neighbors to figure it out, and that will cause a lot of grief for me, my family and my employer. There have been several precedent cases where overseas Chinese returning to China, either not observing self-quarantine requirements or causing disturbances due to perceived shortcomings of centralized quarantine conditions. In all cases, they were rounded criticized in mass media and social medial. In the case of one breaching self-quarantine and haughtily arguing with security guards and police, who were trying to convince her to go home, that person had her visa voided and expelled from China, and was also summarily dismissed by her multinational employer.

    Most people in Wuhan are still practicing social distancing, even beyond the rules and regulations. Masks are still almost universal. Relatively few people on public transportation. However, I do see the occasionally person without mask in the residential compound. One of the barber shops nearby just reopened, and I saw the staff sitting in a circle chatting away, masks pulled below their chins. Not many customers these days. I made a mental note not to visit any barber shops in the near future. It might be fatigue or complacency creeping in, or some of the people recently returned to Wuhan from elsewhere in Hubei or in China, have not lived through 76 days of lock down and the dark days of late Jan. to early Feb., so do not have the same level of awareness. I suspect a lot of people in Wuhan are suffering from varying degrees of PTSD.

  38. 38.

    Frankensteinbeck

    I read the WHO article.  It is scientific CYA.  It is ‘guys, we have almost no scientific studies in about anything’, not ‘we have reason to think COVID-19 does not give immunity.’  We do have one giant experiment going on worldwide, and if there wasn’t at least temporary immunity, hoo boy would we know by now.

     

    Disclaimer:  Others have said this in this thread, but I’m hoping if it keeps being repeated more people will read it and take it in.  I’ve seen too much panicky misinterpretation passed off as science the last couple of months.

  39. 39.

    Uncle Cosmo

    I just read that French story about nicotine possibly being protective against COVID-19, & at first glance, I must say I’m stunned at what appear to be blatantly simplistic assumptions from scientists who damn well ought to know better.

    Something in the process of smoking looks as if it might be protective. Fair enough. But there’s a lot more than nicotine in that puff. Could it be one of the other components of tobacco smoke (e.g., the carcinogenic tars) that SARS-CoV-2 is not fond of? Could it be that a key factor is that tobacco smoke wafts through the respiratory system & what is retained on the cilia & mucous membranes bushwhacks “Thuh Vars” on its way in? Or when trying to gain a foot hold (or a coronahold) on the oxygen-absorbing surfaces of the lung?

    If there is anything to the allegedly observed, hypothetical protective effect of smoking, those seem like logical conjectures to investigate. Among other things, if there is an effect associated with other smoke components and most specifically their presence in the respiratory tract, we might be able to identify compounds that are just as toxic to the virus but not carcinogenic or otherwise hazardous to the human body – and work out ways to station them in the airways. (Vaping is one delivery method that comes to mind. Vaporizers, steam treatments, saunas are others. Be creative!)

    Slapping nicotine patches on a bunch of volunteers will not test the efficacy of anything but the presence of nicotine in the bloodstream. This seems like a longshot at best. I predict that no beneficial effect will be found – & that the scientists, out of their all-too-common tunnel vision, will then abandon the whole line of inquiry & run off after the next will-o-the-wisp rather than investigate all the other mechanisms that might be in play. Which would be a shame.

  41. 41.

    TS (the original)

    @terben:

    And we shall wait and see what happens. Qld rules have been relaxed to a minimal amount – WA somewhat more. I think it is too early.

    Despite the moans about – we can’t keep this up – we have had the serious lockdown in Australia for just 6 weeks. it was  March 16 when the PM announced the first major rules – outside groups would be limited to 500 people.  At that stage I was still shopping and laughing at people who bought trolley loads of TP. The stores started rationing before the government got into full lockdown.

    By 22nd March the govt was closing hotels, churches, sporting venues, casinos etc.

    I would have thought a minimum of 3 months if not longer. The politicians are being hit by the few who want their footy back & their cafes/clubs open. I doubt there is anyone who works in a clothing shop who is keen to get back to work & I doubt they will have many customers.

  42. 42.

    Fair Economist

    @New Deal democrat: I agree. For all studied respiratory infections, clearing an infection provides near-absolute protection for months to years, and partial protection against both infection and severity for a lifetime. The only actual lab escape pandemic was the Russian flu of the 70’s, and that was an extremely mild flu because it was a strain from 25 years before and anybody old enough to have caught it the first time was very unlikely to die.

    Of course we should track people with immune responses to see if this is the first respiratory virus ever to be different, to see how much protection it gives, and to see if “immune” people can become silent carriers, but an immunit passport approach is a good idea as long as the tracking is done

  44. 44.

    Fair Economist

    @debbie: Where are you? Eggs are back to normal at my grocery in Socal. Still no hand sanitizer or alcohol.

    I wonder if a peroxide sanitizer would work. It kills the virus in 5 minutes: could it do so in 30 seconds?

  45. 45.

    ThresherK

    “Restart the Canadian economy” is the stupidest fkcing phrase.

    After the USA entered WWII, all manufacturers ended their production of civilian autos in February 1942. Some point after VJ day, they restarted. In between they were the arsenal of democracy.

    This is not the same.

  46. 46.

    TaMara (HFG)

    @Cermet: Thanks for that.

    Now I have to tell my mother, who was telling me about the nicotine idea earlier this week and I poo-poo’ed it thinking it was just some Fox nonsense, that no, she was correct.

  47. 47.

    Jinchi

    @Frankensteinbeck: I read the WHO article. It is scientific CYA. It is ‘guys, we have almost no scientific studies in about anything’, not ‘we have reason to think COVID-19 does not give immunity.’

    This is not scientific CYA, it’s a pretty explicit pushback on expectations that could lead to disaster. They are addressing a serious leap in logic by virtually everyone in governments around the world, who are desperate for an excuse to open everything back up.

    Such a move could actually increase virus transmission, it warned.

    People who assumed they were immune might stop taking precautions

    Look no further than the mayor of Las Vegas to find someone who is absolutely certain that she’s already had coronavirus, is therefore now immune and wants to bring the crowds of tourists back to the strip.

  48. 48.

    debbie

    @Fair Economist:

    I bought aloe and I already have 70% rubbing alcohol. I think it’s more effective if 90% is used. I’ll have to check into hydrogen peroxide. That I do have.

    I’ll try the store again for eggs. Last time, they only had one brand which I’d never heard of before. I baked some muffins and noticed the yolks were pale and very small. The muffins I’ve made for years turned out just horrible. Bitterish even.

  49. 49.

    Another Scott

    @Cermet:

    This virus – SARS-CoV-2 – does not have a very large genome compared to the common “cold’ virus.

    Eh? My understanding is that the SAR-CoV-2 virus is around 30,000 base pairs while the rhinovirus is about 9,000 base pairs.

    Clarification, please?

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  50. 50.

    dopey-o

    The French may have theories about cigarettes, but let’s not forget that they also drink drink large amounts of wine. It was guessed that the wine contributed to their low incidence of heart disease, many years ago.

    I will volunteer for the red wine and Galluioises prevention regimen, does anyone have Jared’s cellphone number?

    Ireland seems to be doing OK as well. Perhaps US trials of whiskey and cigarettes are in order? Paging Moscow Mitch…

    /snark

  51. 51.

    Fair Economist

    @TaMara (HFG): I would not say it is correct. The Chinese studies I saw found smoking predicted both catching the disease and an increased chance of dying.

  52. 52.

    Fair Economist

    @debbie: The studies on surface sterilization showed 0.5 % peroxide killed all coronavirus in 5 minutes. Store peroxide is 3%, so naively 1 minute would be plenty and maybe less. Not a good sanitizer in general because a lot of bacteria laugh at peroxide, although some are sensitive.

  53. 53.

    Fair Economist

    @Another Scott: Correct although there are other cold viruses. Coronaviruses do mutate more slowly than other RNA viruses but it is because they have an error correcting polymerase.

  55. 55.

    Matt McIrvin

    @TriassicSands: On the vaccine front, I’m encouraged by the fact that actual experts on viruses and vaccines seem more confident that a working vaccine will eventually be developed than the rest of us are. The fact that “there’s never been a vaccine for a coronavirus” gets tossed around a lot, but that’s mostly because the only killer coronaviruses before now were SARS and MERS, and interest in vaccine development waned as a result of the outbreaks ending. There were promising approaches in development.

  56. 56.

    Another Scott

    @Jinchi: I think that take is correct.

    Here’s what COVID-101 says about it:

    Who is immune to COVID-19?
    April 25, 2020
    |
    Emily Smith, ScD MPH
    COVID-19 Basics

    We’re not yet sure who is immune to COVID-19. So far, there is no scientific evidence to prove whether or not humans will be immune after they’ve been infected once. But our best guess is that most people who recover from COVID-19 will be protected from a second infection, at least for a while. Here’s the story behind that best guess.

    The strength of a body’s immune response to a disease varies widely depending on which bug we’re talking about. After we recover from some diseases (like measles), our bodies mount a strong immune response that typically protects us for life. But for other diseases (like norovirus), we are only protected from re-infection for a few years. Although it’s less common, antibodies to some viruses (like dengue fever) can actually make us sicker if we’re infected again later. This is called antibody-dependent enhancement.

    Studies of other coronaviruses give us some clues as to how our bodies might respond to this novel coronavirus. In one study, scientists exposed 15 volunteers to the common cold (a coronavirus strain called 229E). Ten of those volunteers became infected, and eight of them showed symptoms. The other five volunteers did not become infected. The same 15 people returned a year later to repeat the experiment. Some of the five previously non-infected people got infected in the second year, and a few of the ten previously infected people got infected again. But the infections were shorter and less severe the second time around.

    Antibody responses to viral infections also vary from person to person. Several factors can affect whether you develop antibodies after an infection. These include how sick you were, your age, and whether you have other health conditions. A study of 175 hospitalized COVID-19 patients showed that about half of them had a strong (“high” or “medium-high”) antibody response, but the other half had a weaker response. And the doctors didn’t find any protective antibodies in ten of the 175 recovered COVID patients.

    So again, my best guess—based on what we know right now—is that most people who recover from COVID-19 will be protected from a second infection, at least for a while. My former professor recently wrote an op-ed and came to the same conclusion, so I hope that means I pass this epidemiology test.

    (See the original for embedded links.)

    Twitter and hot takes are trying to kill us all. We have to slow down and not demand answers on Twitter’s timeline.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  57. 57.

    EthylEster

    @New Deal democrat: I read their “there is no evidence that people can’t be reinfected” exactly the same as William Barr’s “there is no finding that Trump obstructed justice.”

    Reading and reasoning fail.

    If there is no scientific evidence, then “we don’t know” is the only answer to give. Barr knew/knows there was stuff in the Mueller that was damaging. That’s called lying.

  58. 58.

    EthylEster

    @YY_Sima Qian: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. 

    This!

    And obviously absence of evidence is not evidence of presence.

    IOW we don’t know. Virus might provide immunity or might not.

  59. 59.

    New Deal democrat

    @EthylEster:

    WHO: “there is no *evidence* ….”

    Barr: “there is no *finding*….”

    WHO was correct, but as you pointed out in another comment, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”

    Barr was also correct. There was no finding. Absence of a finding was not a finding of absence of evidence. That “Barr knew/knows there was stuff” in the Mueller report would be valid reasoning if he had said “there is no evidence,” but of course, he didn’t.

    So, as to “Reading and reasoning fail,” ummmmm….

  60. 60.

    EthylEster

    @Another Scott: We have to slow down and not demand answers.

    Exactly. And not make up answers. The person you quoted said clearly that these are best guesses. So they come from past experience and analogies to existing knowledge. We will get more and better data as time passes.

    I don’t think a lot of people understand how conservative science is. In the scientific world it is very bad form to make statements that are not supported by good data. We don’t have very much good data now.

  61. 61.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Jinchi: They’re going both ways on this:

    “The only way to solve this is to get herd immunity, so we need to re-open and restart the economy” and simultaneously “There’s no way to get any kind of immunity, so we should just give up on solving it, accept that we’ll have some deaths and restart the economy.”

  62. 62.

    Kineslaw

    @Matt McIrvin: The SARS vaccine development was stopped because vaccinated rats given the SARS virus died at higher rates than unvaccinated rats.  SARS seemed to be like dengue fever, where re-exposure produced a worse outcome.

    No reason to think this will be true for Covid-19, but it is a cautionary tale.

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